SB Nation - Matt Capps

Some Let's-Take-A-Deep-Breath Analysis Of The Bradley-Silva Deal

Al — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 14:00:18 -0000

More photos » by Ted S. Warren - AP

Now that you've all had a day to express disgust, outrage, "FIREHENDRYNOW", etc. over the trade of Milton Bradley to the Mariners for Carlos Silva, let's examine how this really will affect the 2010 Cubs on the field.

We don't have to rehash the reasons that Bradley had to be moved, but it was clear after he was sent home in September that he would be, no matter what. And when that happened, it was also clear that what the Cubs would get back wasn't going to be much -- likely someone else's bad contract. And that is precisely what we got.

All of you here know that I was against the signing from the beginning -- but I'm not going to say "told you so" here, because even I never imagined that Milton would melt down in the way he would. Let's just say he was never a good fit for the high-profile team that is the Chicago Cubs, and Jim Hendry should have known that. Hendry took responsibility for the entire debacle, and you can bet that Tom Ricketts will have him on a pretty short leash for the rest of this offseason and 2010. If the Cubs don't return to the playoffs in 2010, I'd expect Hendry to be fired, and that firing would be justified. Until then, I do think Hendry deserves a chance to clean up the mess that he made.

So what, really, do we now have here? There has been some dispute over exactly how much financial relief the Cubs got in this deal, but according to this cubs.com article, it's $6 million. This article has the same number. So until I hear different, that's the assumption I'm going on for this post.

Let's not pretend this deal is something it isn't. In December 2009, in a vacuum, there is no way any team deals for or signs Carlos Silva, based on his performance the last two years. He's been horrific. And that might be an insult to horrific players. I'll cut Silva some slack for 2009, as he was hurt most of the year. Could be, that contributed to his poor performance in 2008 also; maybe he was hurt then and didn't tell anyone.

Silva has had, since 2004 when he became a rotation starter for the Twins, at least three seasons where his performance would have made him a capable fifth starter for most teams. In 2005, in 27 starts, he put up an ERA+ of 126 and a 1.17 WHIP. In 2007, the year that got him the four-year deal from the Mariners in free agency, he had a 102 ERA+ and 1.31 WHIP; those numbers, along with a 4.19 ERA, aren't too different from what the Cubs got from Jason Marquis in 2007 and 2008.

Can Silva do this again? The answer is, we simply do not know until we see him pitch. The Cubs claim they have good reports on him from Venezuela:

The Cubs have had scouts watching Silva in Venezuela. He has appeared in four games, striking out two and walking three over nine innings. The club will send its strength and conditioning staff down there to get Silva on a program. The right-hander did report to camp this year 30 pounds lighter.

"We'll do everything we can to get him as close to back where he was a few years ago," Hendry said.

There's no doubt that he needs to lose weight -- just look at the photo at the top of this post, which was taken April 14, 2009. Get the guy in shape, bring him to camp, and see what he can do. There were some here who thought the Cubs should just release Milton Bradley and eat the $21 million on his deal. If Silva really can't pitch any more, he could be released -- but the Cubs would only eat $15 million. Even trading for Pat Burrell would have made the Cubs eat $13 million (because the Rays weren't likely going to take any of Bradley's 2011 salary), and Burrell would have been a very expensive pinch-hitter.

At his best, Silva was a decent ground-ball pitcher who didn't walk anyone. There have been pitchers like him who have come from the AL to the NL and had success -- Bronson Arroyo, for one, or even Glendon Rusch, who had one decent year for the Cubs (2004) as a long reliever/spot starter. There were some links passed around here yesterday -- helpfully combined by Harry Pavlidis -- that indicate that Silva is a very intense player who has on occasion called out his teammates in public for not performing. Clearly, this isn't a good thing, and the only thing I can hope for is that the Cubs clear the air on this right away.

Again, this is obviously not a player you would have chosen to add to your team in a perfect world. The Milton Bradley situation was about as far from "perfect world" as you could get. The $6 million in salary relief, we hope, will allow Jim Hendry to add some help in CF (hey, how about a Ryan Church/Reed Johnson platoon?), or another starting pitcher (paging Joel Pineiro!), or a reliever like Matt Capps.

About Bradley, this portion of Paul Sullivan's article sums him up:

Bradley referred to himself as a "quiet" guy, and said people who criticize him or athletes in general are trying to make names for themselves.

"Pretty much for me, anybody deep down on the inside, looking out or looking in, you understand how PR works and media works, and how people are promoted, and how you have a bad guy and you can have a good guy," he said. "And that's just the way it is. And so I'm portrayed as however I am. It just adds to the mystique, I guess."

Yep, Milton, sure. It's always everyone's fault but yours. Bruce Miles calls you "unrepentant" and I am 100% agreed. For me, this statement by Ryan Dempster sums up the Bradley "era" in Chicago:

"It's unfortunate," Cubs pitcher Ryan Dempster said in September after Bradley was suspended. "At the end of the day, he was provided a great opportunity to come over here and be a part of a really great organization with a lot of really good guys, and it just didn't seem to make him happy, anything."

Somehow, I doubt he'll be happy in Seattle, either, but for now, I'm going to put the pitchforks down and reserve judgment till I see what else Hendry does this offseason. Let's the rest of us try to do that, too. Finally, don't forget to vote in the poll I posted on the right sidebar, if you haven't already, about this deal.

Washington Nationals: Will Matt Capps Follow Pudge?

Ed Chigliak — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 21:01:09 -0000

More photos » by Tom Mihalek - AP

Former Pirates' closer Matt Capps has a decision to make, and he might just follow Ivan "Pudge" Rodriguez to DC if you believe the rumors. (AP Photo/Tom Mihalek)

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Citing MLB.com's Bill Ladson's Twitter message from Thursday about the Nationals being finalists for free agent reliever Matt Capps, Eli Greenspan of the SB Nation's MLB Daily Dish wrote this morning, in an article entitled, "Nationals, Cubs, Rockies finalists for Capps", that the field for the free agent reliever had been narrowed down to just the three teams in the title, while noting that the Nationals offer Capps the clearest path to the closer job he covets, while in Colorado and Chicago, "...he would have to compete for the closer role and would likely end up being (either) team's set up man."

As soon as the news that Pittsburgh had non-tendered the 26-year-old right-hander broke last Saturday, Capps' agent Paul Kinzer made it known that his client had interest in joining the Cubs, and Chicago Breaking Sports.com writer Paul Sullivan reported in an article entitled, "Cubs show interest in released closer Capps", that a mutual interest existed between the two parties, though he noted that the, "...Cubs aren't looking for a closer," since they already have Carlos Marmol,"...but Capps could fill a void in late-inning relief, joining Angel Guzman as a right-handed set-up man."

Denver Post reporter Patrick Saunders spoke directly to Colorado Rockies' GM Dan O'Dowd for an article last Tuesday entitled, "Time running out for Torrealba, Rox like Capps", wherein Mr. Saunders quoted the Rockies' GM stating that Colorado was "absolutely interested" in acquiring Capps who'd be reunited with former Pirates and current Rockies' Manager Jim Tracy. But in Denver too, he'd be competing for the closer's role with Huston Street, with whom, "...the Rockies have been pursuing a long-term deal," according to Mr. Saunders, but since there are,"...no guarantees it will get done. That could make Capps a valuable addition."

Capps himself told MLB.com's Bill Ladson yesterday in an article entitled, "Nationals a finalist to acquire Capps", that he was interested in what was going on in Washington, citing the two-year deal the Nationals gave future HOF catcher Ivan "Pudge" Rodriguez, which Capps believes, "...shows the direction the Nationals are trying to go,":

"'They signed him to a two-year deal - it's just not a fill-in. It shows that they are investing in the future. They want to do what's right, and they want to win.'"

When asked by Mr. Ladson, (who believes Capps would be competing with Brian Bruney for the closer's role in DC), (ed. note - "What, no Storen?"), if he would accept a late-inning relief role if he was to sign with Washington, Capps' response was pretty much what you'd expect:

"'If it's better suited for me to set up for the team in the seventh inning or eighth inning, that's what I'll do,' Capps said. 'If they sign me and tell me they want me to play shortstop, I'll play shortstop. I want to win. I want to be in an environment [where winning is important]. All signs are looking good with what they are trying to do so far.'"

I think he's kidding about playing shortstop...though that could solve two problems...But it's interesting that the only team Capps mentioned in the news yesterday was the Nationals...Was Capps letting the other teams know that they'd have to step up their offers if they wanted to keep him from signing with Washington? Or is the fifth-year pro impressed enough with what Nationals' GM Mike Rizzo is building that he's seriously considering a move to DC?

LATE UPDATE:

FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal sent out a Twitter message while I wrote this which read:

"Angels looking for relievers as well as starters. Matt Capps high on their list."

So the Cubs, Rockies, Nationals and Angels...Does DC stand a chance?

• Bill James Pitcher Projections:

(RHP) Matt Capps --

2009 Projections: 41 G, 47.0 IP, (3-2), 3.20 ERA, 29 Saves, 6 BB (1.1 BB/9), 36 K's (6.8 K/9), 5 HR's (0.96 HR/9).

2009 Stats: 57 G, 54.1 IP, (4-8), 5.80 ERA (4.90 FIP), 27 Saves, 17 BB (2.82 BB/9), 46 K's, (7.62 K/9), 10 HR's, (1.66 HR/9).

2010 Projections: 55 G, 57.0 IP, (3-3), 3.47 ERA (3.80 FIP), 30 Saves, 11 BB, (1.74 BB/9), 45 K's (7.11 K/9), 7 HR's, (1.11 HR/9).

Thinking About Matt Capps

jscape2000 — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 19:00:19 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

Other guys would be called MattCapps as a nickname. MattCapps is just who MattCapps is.

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Aside from having the most assonant name on the free agent market, Matt Capps is one of the most attractive relievers available.

He's so sexy that his about half the teams in baseball want him to join their squad.

This might be surprising because Capps posted a 5.80 ERA, a 1.66 WHIP, 12.1 H/9 and 2.8 BB/9. You're thinking, maybe he's that drunk sort of sexy.

But there's one thing I've learned about baseball, and based on their roster construction, I think the Yanks have learned it too: don't expect anything out of relievers. Don't expect them to be good, don't expect them to be bad. Unless it's Mo Rivera, you simply never know what you're going to get.

Part of this is statistical. Sample size is important in evaluations, and evaluating relievers year to year depends on a tiny sample size. Matt Capps threw 54 innings last season, 53 the season before. CC Sabathia threw 44 innings last May.

Another related piece is dumb luck. "The line drives are caught, the squibbles go for base hits. It's an unfair game." In a small sample size identical performance can produce disparate results. I already gave you Capps' numbers from 2009. Here are the numbers that stayed relatively the same: 7.6 K/9 (career 6.9), LD% 18.7 (career 20.2), GB/FB 1.00 (career 0.82). Matt Capps posted a .370 BABIP, up 70 points from his career average. For all these reasons, and no doubt more, the Yankees (and half the teams in MLB think Capps will return to being the guy who posted a 1.06 WHIP with 6.7 K/9 in his first 3 full seasons.

The Yanks have a slew of relievers and potential relievers who will do what they have done the last two season, mix and match the middle innings to ferry the ball to the great Rivera. Mark Melancon, Damaso Marte, Houdini Robertson, Aces Aceves, Mitre and Gaudin, Nova, Kontos, Jonny Albaledejo, Ivan Nova, Romulo Sanchez, Edwar Ramirez and Hector Noesi are all pretty much certain to see some time on the Yanks' roster. I picked Zach McAllister as the Yanks' top prospect because I think this will be his year somehow, someway, and I still think Alan Horne could make a charge. Plus there's always Joba and Phil should the Yanks sign another starter.

Matt Capps will make a decision soon about where he wants to play, and the Yankees will be on the list. They will be on because it is to Matt Capps' financial benefit for the Yankees to be involved. I will try my best not to pay attention, try not to think about what a valuable addition Matt Capps would be to our bullpen. He's probably only putting the Yankees on his list to drive up his price for whomever he will eventually sign with. The free agent dollars are in closers and that's the guy he should want to be if he's interested in securing his family's financial security through the next generation; being part of the Bridge to Mo should be the farthest thing from his mind.

But if he signs with the Yankees, expect the most exultant jscape post in a while.

Would You Non-Tender Matt Capps?

Harry Pavlidis — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 17:03:59 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

Get used to seeing Capps in a different uniform.

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Think fast. The deadline to tender unsigned players a contract is approaching. A key member of your bullpen is coming off a down season. What will you do?

If you're Pittsburgh Pirates GM Neil Huntington, such decisions are part of your job.

If you're talking about the Matt Capps of '07 or '08, that would be very, very difficult to replace. He's probably not somebody we non-tender. The second half of '08 and into '09 ... it's not that hard to replace a reliever with a 5.00 or 6.00 ERA.

With Matt Capps, it seemed to come down to marketability. Seems that the market was impacted by some news leaks.

In that event, Huntington was asked, why was Capps not traded before that, given that the team surely had its internal valuations on him well before the past week or so: "We were working on it, and we had multiple conversations that disappeared when the media report came out.

Huntington was more explicit in his reasoning during a recent MLB.com chat:

The decision to not tender Matt Capps was a difficult decision. While it is obvious Matt's 2009 performance was not his best, we did feel there were indicators that he would have a better season in 2010. The arbitration process aggressively rewards saves, home runs and wins while not always properly accounting for the metrics behind those numbers. Despite wanting to retain Matt and making an aggressive offer that we believed would be at or near his free-agent value prior to the tender deadline, we felt that the risk of an arbitration award at a substantially higher amount was not a good business decision for us. We may be right or wrong on Matt's free-agent value (and his 2010 performance), and we may be right or wrong on the performance of the pitcher(s) and/or player(s) we re-allocate the money toward, but we felt that it was the right move for us. Obviously, we would have preferred to get something of value in trade for Matt, but given his track record beginning in the second half of 2008, his trade value was limited throughout the summer and again this offseason. We wish the best for Matt and are certainly open to retaining him if we are able to find a common ground with his agent.

Emphasis my own. Note Huntington avoids putting blame on the media this time around. At least directly.

I think they made a mistake, and Capps will be valued relief pitcher somewhere in 2010. Why am I so confident that a pitcher the Pirates had no use for is in line for a good job with another club? First, the list of teams in on Capps is quite long. Second, he's not pitching any better or worse now than he was a couple years ago.

PITCHf/x Indicates Little Has Changed

I realize Capps gave up far more walks and home runs than expected in 2009. Results are results. But what is reasonable to expect going forward? I'm not going to project Capps' 2010 line, but I am going to show you that, beneath the surface, the later vintage Capps (using Huntington's parameters) was just as effective as the earlier version.

PITCHf/x gives us pitch-by-pitch data on what the pitcher threw, how fast it went, where it went and what the batter did with it. Further, within Gameday (which includes the PITCHf/x data), we also get batted ball types and a lot more. PITCHf/x started in 2007, but wasn't in every big league park until 2008. Pittsburgh's system came on line in September 2007. This leaves some holes in the data, so keep that in mind. For the most part, I'm not all that interested in the individual pitches. But my analysis starts there and rolls-up into the top line.

The Basics: Capps is, essentially, a three-pitch guy. Fastball, slider and change-up. He throws mostly four-seam fastballs, but also throws a two-seamer. As noted earlier, he also has a cutter.

For the purposes of this discussion, I'll go with three pitches, lumping fastballs together and cutters with sliders:

Fastball: 92 mph; Slider: 85; Change-up: 87

Nothing earth shattering, a fairly typical arsenal featuring reasonable, but not spectacular, power.

Now that we know what he's got, let's split it up. Huntington alluded to a second half decline in 2008. Capps was out of action for a few weeks after the All Star Break, so we can conveniently split his PITCHf/x data (which starts in 2007, and is incomplete for that year) into "before" and "after", and line-up close enough in terms of sample sizes.

Most of these stats are somewhat self-explanatory, but I'll run them down just in case ... strikes are pitches in a two foot wide zone, based on each hitter's own top/bottom zones. Whiffs are misses per swings, chases are swings out of the zone, watches are takes in it, B:CS are umpire calls, GB/LD/FB/PU are Gameday stringer assigned batted ball types, HR/F+L is simply homers per flies+liners, rv100 are run values vs MLB average (2007-2009) per 100 pitches (negative values being better for pitchers), rv100E is the same thing but using batted ball types instead of actual hits/outs - takes away some fielding and park luck, along with contact quality unfortunatly. Neither rv stat I use is park adjusted at the moment, and AL/NL are not separated so apply a mental penalty to NL pitchers.

	Before (742)	After (1025)
Strikes	.584	.590
Whiffs	.167	.189
Chase	.317	.312
Watch	.337	.352
B:CS	1.8:1	1.7:1
GB	30%	42%
LD	21%	17%
FB	40%	34%
PU	9%	7%
HR/F+L	6%	8%
SLGCON	.506	.581
rv100	-1.23	0.24
rv100E	-0.27	-0.56

One could argue Capps was a better pitcher, with poorer luck, in the supposed down swing of the "After" period.

In case you're wondering, fastball velocity was 93.5 "before" and 94.1 "after". I also split Capps' data into 2009 only and 2007/2008. In that case, the sample sizes were nearly identical, as were the performances.

Where To?

The latest news, as of this writing, is about Capps narrowing down the field of suitors:

[R]ighty reliever Matt Capps' agent, who found himself fielding multiple suitors, said Capps will narrow the list to the five most-serious.

By "serious" I'm assuming multi-year offers and opportunities to close. So far, the Nationals are on the list. Given my own loyalties, I would not be displeased with Capps working set-up innings for the Cubs for the next two years, if the price is right.

Washington Nationals: Matt Capps And Jason Marquis Impressed By DC.

Ed Chigliak — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 05:57:12 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

Matt Capps in considering closing for the Nationals, and he tells MLB.com's Bill Ladson that he likes what Washington is doing so far this winter. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

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Free agent closer Matt Capps took another step in deciding which team he'd like to pitch for in 2010, once again trimming what started as a twelve-team list of suitors shortly after the Pittsburgh Pirates non-tendered the 26-year-old right-hander last Saturday, and according to MLB.com's Bill Ladson's article entitled, "Nationals a finalist to acquire Capps", the Washington Nationals are on the shortened short list, and can be considered, "...a finalist to acquire the services of free-agent right-hander Matt Capps."

Echoing the sentiments expressed by free agent pitcher Jason Marquis, who told MLB.com's Bill Ladson in another article entitled, "Marquis interested in Nationals", that he liked, "Some of the moves the Nationals have made -- like [signing Stephen Strasburg] signing Pudge [Ivan Rodriguez] and getting [Brian Bruney]..." Capps told Mr. Ladson tonight, that in addition to the fact that Washington has an up-for-grabs closer's role heading into Spring Training, he's considering DC because he likes what he sees:

"I already like the moves they already made in trying to be competitive next year and beyond. Ivan Rodriguez is a Hall of Fame catcher. To have the opportunity to throw to him and learn from him, I definitely think that is a big deal."

Asked if a Hall of Fame-bound catcher might attract free agent pitchers and whether or not it figured in his decision to sign the veteran backstop during the press conference introducing new Nationals' catcher Pudge Rodriguez to the Washington press, DC GM Mike Rizzo responded half-jokingly, "If you think that didn't go into my thought process when we were talking to Ivan Rodriguez, you don't know me very well." We'll save the Cpt. John "Hannibal" Smith, "I love it when a plan comes together" talk for when one of these free agent pitchers actually signs...(ed. note - "Especially after FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal listed the Yankees, Mets and Cubs as other teams that are interested in Capps..."), but so far it looks like it's not just front office types who like what Mike Rizzo is doing in the nation's capital.

Nationals, Cubs, Rockies finalists for Matt Capps

Eli Greenspan — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 01:03:40 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

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Free agent closer Matt Capps is close to making a decision on his next team.

MLB.com's Bill Ladson is reporting that the Nationals are a finalist for his services, and it is believed the Cubs and Rockies are still very much involved in the race.

Capps made his interest known to the Cubs when he was released, but he would have to compete for the closer role and would likely end up being the teams set up man. The Rockies are in the same situation.

Capps would be the teams closer in D.C., which would be a good addition with Brian Bruney after a disappointing 2009 for the Nats' bullpen.

The Quest For Relief Stays Pricey

Ian Casselberry — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 14:01:25 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

Mike Gonzalez got $12 million on the free agent market. How much can Fernando Rodney expect to find now?

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If the Detroit Tigers weren't already thinking that they should make an inside hire for next year's closer job, Mike Gonzalez and the Baltimore Orioles gave them another reason to strongly consider it.

Gonzalez agreed to a two-year, $12 million deal with the O's on Wednesday. The $6 million annual salary exceeds the $5 million Brandon Lyon will receive as part of his $15 million contract with the Astros. Incentives could push the contract's value up to $16 million, according to Yahoo! Sports' Tim Brown.

After fighting injuries the past two seasons, Gonzalez pitched in 80 games for the Atlanta Braves this year. He struck out 90 batters and walked 33 in 74.1 innings, also notching 10 saves and a 2.42 ERA.

Meanwhille, Fernando Rodney is still out there, waiting for a team to meet his price. Three years, $30 million? Even the Orioles, who reportedly had Rodney at the top of their closer shopping list, thought that was too much.

And what's the market for closers now? The number of teams in need of one is getting smaller. The Tigers are obviously on that list, though may be priced into looking at an in-house option. The Diamondbacks say they want to sign one. The Cubs, perhaps, if they don't think Carlos Marmol can cut it. The Nationals? The Pirates (who brilliantly non-tendered Matt Capps)?

Rodney and Jose Valverde are looking to cash in. And Capps might be the most attractive choice for teams hoping to avoid the big-money, multi-year deals those top free agent closers are seeking. Will prices begin to drop as openings continue to shrink? Or will teams eventually get a bit desperate and meet those demands?

Meanwhile, does Joel Zumaya or Ryan Perry look more attractive as the Tigers' closer next year, in light of the contracts free agent closers have been signing this winter?

Staying the Course

jscape2000 — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 19:00:26 -0000

More photos » by Elise Amendola - ASSOCIATED PRESS

It's great to be any age, and be a Yankee.

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Today is December 15, 2009. Pitchers and catchers report on February 17, 2010. That's 2 months and 2 days, or 9 weeks and a day. It is a long offseason.

Brian Cashman has kept his trigger finger under control so far this offseason, avoiding committing too much to any of the trades or free agents the Yankees have been linked to.

He's upgraded centerfield at the cost of a minor league centerfielder who needed another year of seasoning, a reliever who might not have made the team out of Spring Training, and a minor league starter who might have challenged for the fifth spot in the rotation.

Then, he returned the Yanks' key free agent at roughly the same cost as last season.

Now he's working on bringing in another pitcher to fight for that fifth spot. While I doubt Cash will be willing to give Ben Sheets the same $12M contract Pettitte received, we have witnessed an impressive exercise in self control. If Cashman thinks that Ben Sheets is the best fit for the Yankees' rotation, I trust his judgment.

Former Pirates closer Matt Capps is still listening to offers, though he'll probably want the future dollars that come with saves more than to be a part of the Bridge to Mo.

Super-subs Jerry Hairston Jr. and Mark DeRosa are both still available. Hank Blalock probably wants a starting job, but if he'd come to sometimes play the field, sometimes DH, and sometimes PH, he's a strong candidate to rebound from his 2009 .250 BABIP (career .299). Reed Johnson could backup any of the outfield spots, covering RF while Swisher serves as occasional 1B/DH. If you want a pure DH, Jim Thome still has a great eye and a ton of power, and Nick Johnson is an OBP machine.

Plus Johnny Damon, Jason Bay, and Matt Holliday are all still on the market. Any one of them transforms the lineup from 'merely' best in the league to legendary.

Today is the 15th of December, and the Yankees have several ways to improve themselves.

Marlins Interested in Matt Capps

GameFish — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 17:51:17 -0000

Matt Capps was non-tendered by the Pirates Saturday, and the Marlins are rumored to be one of the many teams interested in signing him.

Leo Nunez may have some competition for the closer’s job this spring, after all.

The Marlins are among teams interested in reliever Matt Capps, who was non-tendered by the Pirates on Saturday. The Marlins tried to trade for Capps this past summer, dangling RF Jeremy Hermida to Pittsburgh. Capps made $2.425 million in 2009, and he’s believed to be asking for about the same.

Capps posted career lows in 2009, going 4-8 with a 5.80 ERA and 27 saves in 32 opportunities.

Capps has made it clear he still wants the chance to close, and right now the Nationals appear to be his team of preference. Based on the amount of interest in him, and the fact that he wants a multi-year deal, I wouldn't hold my breath waiting to see if he'll be in teal and black next season. But while you're breathing normally, if you're interested, fangraphs has picked apart what was behind Matt's ineffectiveness in 2009.

2010 MLB Free Agent Predictions: 41-50

Eli Greenspan — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 16:00:47 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

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40. Darren Oliver, Angels

- Oliver has been a great veteran influence on some of the younger Angels pitchers, and the Angels are expected to lock him up for one more season.

Prediction: Angels

41. Ronnie Belliard, Dodgers

- After putting together a strong finish, where he effectively won the starting position over, Belliard will certainly receive an offer for next season.

Prediction: Dodgers

42. Troy Glaus, Cardinals

- Glaus was reduced to limited playing time this past season, and may be reduced to a minor league deal if teams take their time this off season. A team in need of a DH/corner infielder could benefit from a healthy Glaus.

Prediction: Athletics

43.Carlos Delgado, Mets

- Delgado has 30-homer potential, and the Orioles could capitalize with his bat in the lineup, especially in the DH spot.

Prediction: Orioles

44. Aubrey Huff, Tigers

- Huff put up decent numbers with the Orioles and Tigers last season, but it sure to draw interest on the open market. A dozen or so teams are in the market for DH or first baseman, where Huff has experience.

Prediction: White Sox

45. Orlando Cabrera, Twins

- Cabrera doesn't have the market that he thought he would have, now that Marco Scutaro and Alex Gonzalez are off the market. Several teams report he is out of there price range, which could lead to a team like the Angels picking him up on a one or two year deal.

Prediction: Astros

46. Rod Barajas, Blue Jays

- Barajas is drawing interest from several teams, but may opt for New York if they extend him an offer.

Prediction: Giants

47. Matt Capps, Pirates

- Baseball executives were surprised to hear Capps was released, despite his poor numbers in 2009. Teams are still interested in Capps, and he should be picked up soon.

Prediction: Cubs

48. Garrett Atkins, Rockies

- Atkins was also non-tendered, and it is only a matter of time before he signs somewhere too. The Twins, Orioles, and Giants are possibilities.

Prediction: Giants

49. Russell Branyan, Mariners

- Branyan is playing hardball with the Mariners, but he has already made it known he wants to return.

Prediction: Mariners

50. Kelly Johnson, Braves

- After putting up fairly decent numbers between 2007-2008, his numbers dropped significantly to the point of being non-tendered following the 2009 season. Still, the Diamondbacks' interest in Johnson goes way back and he could end up in Arizona.

Prediction: Diamondbacks