SB Nation - Lance Berkman

The 2009 Off Season's Impact On The Future

ltrain2 — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 13:04:42 -0000

by Elise Amendola - AP

Boston Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein, right, and manager Terry Francona are concerned with much more than just the matters related to 2010's team.

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The Red Sox, beleaguered by talks of a 'bridge period' earlier this off season, caught fans slightly by surprise with their recent flurry of activity within the MLB's Hot Stove Market. Marco Scutaro's arrival in Boston may not have warranted much commotion given the nature of his contract (the length in particular), but the lucrative 5-year deal awarded to pitcher John Lackey has some questioning the exact direction that general manager Theo Epstein is taking the club and the future of pitcher Josh Beckett in particular.

After a very quiet beginning to the Winter Meetings, the Red Sox designated nearly $25 million for next season's payroll with the additions of Mike Cameron and John Lackey alone, moves that will certainly effect those that subsequently follow -- both this season as well as the next.

What does this mean for the likes of Josh Beckett and Victor Martinez, both with expiring contracts, especially considering the addition of Lackey and the potential free-agency of catcher Joe Mauer? With over $50 million in expiring contracts coming off the books following this season, how will management approach the free-agent class of 2010, considered by many to be one of the deepest of its kind in relation to available impact players? If this season is still considered a bridge to the future, then what can fans expect to see from the front office at this time next year?

At the moment, Boston's payroll is hovering around the $170 million dollar mark for the 2010 season (which includes the money owed to former shortstop Julio Lugo). The following players are in the final year of their current contracts; David Ortiz, Mike Lowell, Josh Beckett, Victor Martinez, Jason Varitek, and Julio Lugo -- contracts that total $55 million. Assuming that Boston doesn't restructure any of the deals involving the aforementioned players, that gives management a large sum of financial freedom to address the incoming class of free-agents, a group that boasts talent trumping that which is offered in this year's crop.

Many have likened the situation to that which resulted in the Red Sox's 2007 World Series Championship. Prior to that season Epstein spent nearly $210 million ($209.1 to be exact) in acquiring J.D. Drew, Julio Lugo, and Daisuke Matsuzaka.

Again, with the assumption that none of the following players are awarded new deals during the upcoming season, here's a look at the free-agent class of 2010: Joe Mauer, Carl Crawford, Lance Berkman, Cliff Lee, Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Carlos Pena, Brandon Webb, Jayson Werth. It's a safe bet that someone like Jeter will be retained by the Yankees, but even that scenario leaves a slew of All-Star caliber talent available for the taking.

Similar to last season when the Yankees cleared themselves of nearly $70 million in contractual commitments that led to the signings of C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and Mark Teixeira, and ultimately a World Series Championship, Boston will find themselves in a very enviable position heading into next year's Hot Stove action.

It's a safe bet that Boston decides to let the contracts of Varitek and Lowell expire, but what about Josh Beckett and Victor Martinez?

After the signing of John Lackey, Theo Epstein immediately sent a text message assuring Josh Beckett that the addition of Lackey will in no way effect Boston's interest in re-signing him. However, we've seen this before, and nobody can blame Beckett for remaining skeptical regardless of how convincing Epstein may have appeared. After acquiring Curt Schilling in 2003, management sent a similar message to then staff-ace Pedro Martinez, who also found himself entering a contract year at that time. Martinez was not a member of the Red Sox in 2005 as management was never able to work out a deal to retain the right-hander, leading many to question Beckett's future in Boston. John Lackey received a 5-year deal worth $82.5 million dollars this off-season, raising speculation as to how serious the team is about keeping Beckett. It's hard to ignore the likenesses between Lackey and Beckett as pitchers, and with Lackey receiving a contract similar to that which Beckett is expected to command; did Boston simply sign Lackey to replace Beckett upon his departure? The situation is eerily similar to that which led to the end of the 'Pedro era' in Boston.

Victor Martinez is considered a very valuable commodity amongst the Red Sox's lineup. Martinez's ability to play both catcher and first base at a high level makes him just that much more appealing to the Red Sox, who currently owe him just under $8 million this season, making him widely considered one of the best bargains in baseball. However, there has been a lot of discussion recently surrounding the potential trading of first baseman Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox by the San Diego Padres. If that happens, how will it effect the way in which Boston approaches Martinez's expiring contract? With the versatile slugger likely to command big money in the open market, will Theo then shift his focus to Joe Mauer, assuming that he isn't re-signed by Minnesota this season? With Gonzalez coming to Boston in this scenario, Martinez's ability to play first base becomes less relevant in relation to addressing the team's need for a catcher. It's no secret that Theo loves the type of player that Mauer embodies, and with good reason, as Mauer is regarded as one of the best all-around talents in baseball. Martinez is an ample catcher, but Mauer is a great one. Couple that with the upgrade that Mauer would represent offensively as opposed to V-Mart and it's not a stretch to assume that the Red Sox would rather utilize a good sum of that newly available $55 million on the former MVP/All-Star/Batting Champion/Gold Glover [Mauer].

On the other hand, it's worth mentioning that there has been some speculation that the Red Sox may plan to invest in both Martinez and Mauer, shifting Victor to first base and affording them a more than acceptable option behind the plate on days that they would decide to rest Mauer. Obviously this scenario becomes more likely in the event that Adrian Gonzalez is not acquired via trade.

Another key element that makes Martinez less of a necessity is the availability of Lance Berkman and Carlos Pena next off season, both viable options to fill the void at first base in the event that Boston is unable to retain Martinez. Similarly, Beckett's contract demands may become less appealing given the pending free-agent status' of pitchers Cliff Lee and Brandon Webb and the newly acquired Lackey.

Jacoby Ellsbury and Clay Buchholz may also find their time in Boston heavily influenced by the free-agent class of 2010 and the moves made to this point in 2009. Both players have been mentioned in discussions surrounding potential trade scenarios involving Adrian Gonzalez. Does Ellsbury become more expendable with Werth and Crawford being available next season, as well as the recent signing of Mike Cameron? Does Buchholz become easier to part with given the potential signing of Aroldis Chapman and the potential free-agency of both Lee and Webb?

Every move that management makes from here on out must be calculated and will be heavily dependent on other deals that are or are not completed. For instance -- the addition of Lackey aside, even the situation at the catcher position effects the likelihood that starting pitcher Josh Beckett remains with the Red Sox.

Joe Mauer is believed to be in line to receive one of largest contracts in baseball history from whomever he decides to sign with. Therefore, if Martinez opts to explore free-agency and Boston decides to make a push for Mauer, it becomes less likely that they do so successfully while still being able to afford Beckett. Again, John Lackey's signing plays a major role in this as well. It's easier to let Beckett go and pursue Mauer with Lackey locked up for five seasons, and harder to justify retaining Beckett with the same thing in mind.

Going full-circle, it's easier to let Martinez walk with the addition of Gonzalez. In the event that Gonzalez is acquired, it becomes more feasible that Boston goes after Mauer, letting Martinez go and possibly making a concerted effort to retain Beckett.

It is still my belief that the Red Sox are pushing hard to acquire Adrian Gonzalez. In a previous article listed here, I explain that the Red Sox's moves to this point lead me to believe that Gonzalez is the most important player currently on Boston's radar. For one, signing Aroldis Chapman could help justify trading a young pitcher like Buchholz. Also, given the Red Sox's payroll commitments for 2010 and their still-glaring need to acquire a power-hitting corner infielder, the friendly nature of Gonzalez's contract for the next two seasons makes him the most appealing option for Boston if they truly desire an impact player to fill that void while still remaining within the $170 million dollar payroll goal set by Epstein.

However, the Gonzalez trade would be a blockbuster-type deal and is anything but a certainty. In the event that no progress is made in relation to Gonzalez, I think that Boston will shift their attention away from Beckett for the time being and make Victor Martinez their primary focus this season in terms of restructuring any of the expiring contracts. Talks with Martinez will likely correspond with the progress made by Minnesota in retaining Mauer. If it appears that Mauer will re-sign, Martinez should become priority number one in Boston. In the event that Mauer and the Twins cannot find common ground, the Red Sox will assess how badly they want to pursue Mauer, whether it be via trade or during the 2010 off season.

The point being that the signing of John Lackey, as well as any move made from this point on, does more than impact the future of Josh Beckett and the outlook of next year's club. Each move shifts the potential makeup of the roster for years to come. The job of a general manager is one of the most stress-inducing positions in sports for a reason and is not for short-sighted individuals. You can bet that Theo Epstein and the rest of the front office are making every move during the course of this off season with the next one in the back of their minds.

Poll

Who will most likely be a member of the Boston Red Sox in 2011?

Is Spring Training Enough?

davoag — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 13:00:25 -0000

Richard Justice recently opined on his blog that the Houston Astros are going to take a 'wait-and-see' approach to top prospects Jason Castro and Chris Johnson. Neither will have a job locked up going into spring training and will need solid performances there in order to make the Opening Day rosters.

I like Castro quite a bit and there's been talk around here about whether the Astros should save some money and go with a youth movement in 2010. Castro, Johnson, Tommy Manzella and company would probably struggle at first, but if they're big league material, they will find their way eventually. That's not the point of Justice's blog post, though. The Astros are apparently basing that decision on spring training performance.

My question is this: why do teams base such crucial decision on such a small sample size? Do you really get a good enough look at a player in spring training to determine whether they'd make such an important decision with a player? I'm not talking about just prospects here, but with non-roster invitees and other players. How do you evaluate a player on such a small subset of play?

In the 2009 Grapefruit League, Michael Bourn led the Astros with 103 plate appearances. The rest of the regulars had around 60-70 plate appearances each, including guys like Jason Smith and Chris Johnson. Obviously, Bourn was the Astros' most improved player in the regular season, but had a .685 OPS in Spring Training. Smith had an .885 OPS in 65 plate appearances, which basically locked up a position for him on the opening day roster. Smith, of course, got no hits in 25 at-bats in the majors before being designated to Round Rock.

Of the regulars in the Houston lineup last season, only two had higher OPS numbers in Kissimmee than during the regular season (Lance Berkman and Miguel Tejada). The rest performed much better once the games started counting for something. The question then becomes, why do we use such a small sample size to determine if a player will break camp with the big league team?

I realize the team probably evaluates other things, like preparation, handling of the pitching staff, defense, and lots more off-the-field stuff that can't be quantified. Still, time and time again we see a guy have a huge spring numbers-wise and it changes how the club looks at him. It's a bit of a self-fulfilling prophesy. If the organization likes a player, they'll use his numbers as a justification for breaking camp with him. If they don't, the numbers are a way to make the cut, even though they don't tell us anything useful.

Houston hasn't always been run this way. Under Gerry Hunsicker, the team cut ties with Shane Reynolds, even though he was healthy enough to pitch 167 innings for Atlanta that season. Reynolds had won 103 games as an Astro and been the Opening Day starter. Yet, the team still made an objective evaluation of his talent level at the time and made the cut during spring training. I'm not convinced that this front office can do that yet, since I don't think they have the decision-making autonomy from owner Drayton McLane that Hunsicker did, but they could surprise me.

Tuesday Astros Links N' More

davoag — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 19:00:14 -0000

by David Zalubowski - AP

That's no whiffle bat Bourn is swinging...

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Let's open with a rather long note from Buster Olney's column on Michael Bourn. Since it's protected by the ESPN Insider firewall and I don't know how many of you subscribe, I'll reprint the high points:

Before joining Aguilas in winter ball, in the Dominican Republic, he started to unravel the puzzle of his swing. Besides pulling ground balls to the right side of the infield, Bourn also was hitting the ball off the end of his bat a lot -- clues, he felt, that told him his swing was too quick, and that his bat wasn't in the hitting zone long enough. He liked to watch Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee take batting practice, and he admired how their level swings seem to be pulled through the plate for so long, giving them a greater chance for better contact. Bourn's swing, on the other hand, was just too quick, which is why he kept hitting harmless grounders to second base.

Late in the 2008 season, Astros coach Dave Clark gave Bourn a suggestion -- Bourn should try hitting with his weight shifted forward at the outset of his swing, rather than with his weight back, on his left hip. Ultimately, Clark said, Bourn would need to get back to hitting with his weight back -- but this change would allow Bourn to focus on how he used his hands in his swing path.

Imagine swinging a Wiffle ball bat with your hands only, and without shifting your weight from your back hip to your front hip; this is what Clark did in September of 2008. And he could feel, in his swing, a solution evolving. He began to hit the ball to the left side of the infield, or through the middle. The progress continued in winter ball, and in spring training, Berkman suggested to him that he should work off a tee daily, develop a routine in which he practiced his level swing path, using his hands and the shift of his weight in concert.

And in spring training, Bourn noticed the foul balls he was hitting were going into the stands along the third-base line. A good thing, he felt.

"What this told me was that I was doing better at letting the ball get deeper in the strike zone," Bourn said. "I was a little behind the ball, and all I needed to do was to be a little quicker."

No wonder Dave Clark was such a popular figure with the player...

Since the Astros' top prospect Jason Castro was sent home from the Arizona Fall League because of fatigue, this interview with Giants catcher Buster Posey is relevant, though not especially enlightening. Posey doesn't really say anything we couldn't have surmised ourselves but it is worth looking at Houston's future catcher to see how many innings he's racking up on those knees.

The following are rough estimates on the number of innings played for Castro in the past five seasons. You can see the huge spike in the season he got drafted. It's also worth noting that for the first few years there, those innings were spread out through the entire year, as Castro played in the Alaska Baseball League, the Area Code Games, the Cape Cod League and other events throughout his career that made playing baseball year-round a possibility.

2005 - ~500 (mostly infield)

2006 - 673 (mostly first base)

2007 - 536 (mostly first base)

2008 - 900 (first season full-time at catcher)

2009 - 1,100 (including spring training, minors, World Cup and AFL)

Castro is used to playing year-round, but tired out right around the time he hit the 1,000 inning mark. The Astros top two catchers last season combined to catch 1,175 innings. Maybe Castro just needs to get his legs underneath him. He's only caught for two seasons now, much like Posey and should be fresher than someone who caught all through high school and college. Still, if we're thinking of using Castro at some point next season, it's worth asking if he'll have anything in the tank when he is called up.

Farmstros is already on top of this one, but Zach Levine posted all the minor league coaching move s that trickled down from a new big league skipper being named. The only real eyebrow-raiser for me was Mark Bailey being named hitting coach after spending all those years in Houston as bullpen coach. He used to be a catcher, but isn't that a bit weird?
Fangraphs updates us on how awesome Michael Bourn was on the basepaths last season. Though the best baserunner in the league was only worth eight runs last season, it shows how versatile Bourn was and how his value really transcends his pedestrian OPS.
Here are a couple of posts from Chris Jaffe's new book on managers. Since we discussed the relative merits of different managers quite extensively leading up to Brad Mills' hiring, it's interesting to look at the factors that distinguish a good manager from a bad one. If I have some time this winter, I'm definitely reading up on this book to see how we can start better evaluating the skipper. It's also interesting to think about the 'hometown hero' concept in relation to Houston's managers. Of course, the only real example was Dierker, but with all the talk about Bagwell and/or Biggio being candiates for the job, looking at how other guys fared is pretty neat.
Here's a twitpic from Alyson Footer of Bud Norris. Footer has been on a tweeting rampage with her camera, taking some candid shots of Berkman and Hunter Pence at a MMP event for 20 homeless families transitioning to non-homelessness. A very good cause and a very neat anecdote that Footer shares on her blog about how Missus Puma wanted her kids involved with this.
Don't know what to get that baseball fan you know for Christmas? How about a super-cool DVD pack full of World Series games?
Good news for the baseball bloggers of the world...Yahoo has the highest number of media credentials at the Winter Olympics so far. It makes sense, no? Just because newspapers die out doesn't mean people will stop wanting news. They just have to figure out how to log onto the InterWeb now...
Finally, a little piece of non-baseball goodness...if anyone here hasn't watched The Wire yet, I highly recommend it.

The Astros most impressive performances in 2009: The hitters

DyingQuail — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 15:57:54 -0000

More photos » by Henny Ray Abrams - AP

Not the guy you're expecting to see with a post about "most impressive batting performance."

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This idea struck sometime in late August as I was watching, most likely, another Astros loss. I thought it would be a good idea so I randomly threw it onto Things for today.

The idea is pretty simple, what were the top three greatest performances that players put up during the season. Because I'm saber-slanted, I'm using WPA to quantify greatest. I've spent all morning clicking through every player's play log to find their highest WPA/play in order come up with the top three in hitting and pitching. Today is about the hitters, and the results will likely surprise you.

No. 1 - Kaz Matsui on September 5th

The man on the mound, a familiar Brad Lidge. The situation, down one in the bottom of the ninth, the bases juiced with two outs. What does Kaz do? He lines a 1B right field scoring JR Towles and Jason Michaels—the tying and the winning runs.

via www.fangraphs.com

Kazuo Matsui picks up a tidy .734 WPA on that one play. That's staggering. Of course, he's aided by the fact that the leverage situation was an insane 10.78, but he came through. That graph is ridiculous. Congrats, Kaz.

No. 2 - Miguel Tejada on September 9th

Compared to Kaz's ridiculous three-quarters of a win performance just four days earlier, Tejada's performance feels a little pedestrian. The real trajedy of this day, is that Lance Berkman gets squeaked out of the top three, even though were it not for him, Tejada doesn't make the list.

After Lance doubled to put runners at 2B and 3B, the Braves IBBed Carlos Lee to bring up Tejada, with one out (this reads like a terrible decision until you remember that it's Miguel "GIDP" Tejada at the plate). The result is that Tejada sends a ground ball to CF bringing in Kaz Matusi and Berkman to put the Astros on top 2-1.

via www.fangraphs.com

Tejada walks away with .471 WPA for his troubles and the number two performance.

No. 3 - Jeff Keppinger on August 27th

Top of the ninth. None on and two out. Astros tied 3-3 with the St. Louis Cardinals. Keppinger takes Kyle McClellan deep for a HR to put the Astros on top.

via www.fangraphs.com

Incidentally, Keppinger garners .421 WPA with the HR, but most importantly: Keppinger earns the highest isolated WPA performance of the season.

Keppinger's swing was just involved he and McClellan, where as Kaz and Miggy had the table set for them. I'm not saying that because they had their situations created by the play of players in front of them that they don't deserve credit for coming through with "clutch" hits, but with Keppinger, you don't have to wonder if more credit should be shifted to the table setters.

So, in your opinion....

Poll

What was the greatest batting performance by an Astro in 2009? (the choices are cryptic because you should read the post before you vote)

9/5

15 votes

9/9

3 votes

8/27

9 votes

Other - I'll explain in the comments

2 votes

29 votes | Poll has closed

2009 SBN Baseball Awards - NL MVP.

Ed Chigliak — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 03:41:35 -0000

More photos » by Mark J. Terrill - AP

Can St. Louis Cardinals' first baseman Albert Pujols take home his second-straight SBN NL MVP Award? Seriously? Are you actually wondering? Just click through to find out... (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

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Lance Berkman wasn't the only player not named Albert Pujols who received a 1st place vote in the SB Nation's NL MVP voting last year (2008)...Philadelphia Phillies' 1st baseman Ryan Howard struggled throughout the year only to lift Philly into the postseason with a late-season surge which saw the then-28-year-old slugger hit .352 in September with 7 doubles, 11 HR's and 32 RBI's in the last 24 games and 88 at bats to earn the distinction of being the league's most valuable player in the eyes of at least 3 of the SB Nation's writers. Berkman, who received one first place vote, had hit .312 on the year with a .420 OBP, .567 SLG and a .986 OPS in 159 games and 554 at bats over which the 32-year-old Astros' first baseman hit 46 doubles and 29 HR's while knocking in 106. Albert Pujols? Pujols was given 13 first-place votes by the 16 SB Nation's baseball writers who participated in the voting, handing the hulking 28-year-old St. Louis Cardinal his second MVP award a week before the Baseball Writers Association of America bestowed the same honor upon the then-8th-year pro for the second time in his career...

Will Albert Pujols take home his second-straight SBN NL MVP Award? (ed. note - "There might be more, I've only voted in two...") Is there any doubt? It's gotta be Pujols...After he hit for a .327 AVG with a .443 OBP, .658 SLG and 1.101 OPS in 160 games played in which the 29-year-old first baseman hit 45 doubles and 47 HR's while driving in 135? The only question is whether or not it will be unanimous...The 2009 SBN NL MVP is just a click away...Place your own NL MVP vote before checking the results...

Rk	Player	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th	10th	Pts
1	Albert Pujols	St. Louis Cardinals	31	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	434
2	Hanley Ramirez	Florida Marlins	-	6	8	11	2	1	2	-	-	-	220
3	Chase Utley	Philadelphia Phillies	-	7	11	2	3	1	-	1	-	1	192
4	Prince Fielder	Milwaukee Brewers	-	5	4	4	7	7	1	-	-	-	186
5	Troy Tulowitzki	Colorado Rockies	-	4	1	5	2	3	3	4	1	2	134
6	Tim Lincecum	San Francisco Giants	-	4	1	-	1	2	2	3	1	-	79
7	Ryan Howard	Philadelphia Phillies	-	4	-	1	4	1	-	-	3	1	79
8	Ryan Zimmerman	Washington Nationals	-	-	1	3	3	3	3	1	-	2	79
9	Adrian Gonzalez	San Diego Padres	-	-	1	-	3	3	2	4	3	4	71
10	Pablo Sandoval	San Francisco Giants	-	-	-	1	2	2	2	3	4	3	57
11	Matt Kemp	Los Angeles Dodgers	-	-	1	1	1	1	5	3	-	1	56
12	Ryan Braun	Milwaukee Brewers	-	-	2	-	-	2	2	1	1	-	39
13	Chris Carpenter	St. Louis Cardinals	-	-	-	-	2	1	1	-	1	2	25
14	Derrek Lee	Chicago Cubs	-	-	-	-	-	2	1	1	3	2	25
15	Andre Ethier	Los Angeles Dodgers	-	-	-	-	1	2	2	-	-	-	24
16	Adam Wainwright	St. Louis Cardinals	-	-	-	1	-	-	1	1	4	1	23
17	Javier Vazquez	Atlanta Braves	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	1	2	1	16
18	Matt Holliday	St. Louis Cardinals	-	-	1	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	12
19	Joey Votto	Cincinnati Reds	-	1	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	11
20	Mark Reynolds	Arizona Diamondbacks	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	1	2	10
21	Todd Helton	Colorado Rockies	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	-	-	-	7
22	Jayson Werth	Philadelphia Phillies	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	1	6
23	Adam Dunn	Washington Nationals	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	3	5
24	Juan Pierre	Los Angeles Dodgers	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	4
25	Justin Upton	Arizona Diamondbacks	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	1	4
26	Raul Ibanez	Philadelphia Phillies	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	1	4
27	Ubaldo Jimenez	Colorado Rockies	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	1	4
28	Brian McCann	Atlanta Braves	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	-	4
29	Dan Haren	Arizona Diamondbacks	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	-	4
30	Michael Bourn	Houston Astros	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	3
31	Yadier Molina	St. Louis Cardinals	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	3
32	Nyjer Morgan	Washington Nationals	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1
33	Yunel Escobar	Atlanta Braves	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1

• Ryan Zimmerman's just getting all kinds of love...the Gold Glove, The Silver Slugger, and now a third-place finish in the SB Nation's 2009 NL MVP voting...Adam Dunn shows up on some ballots too...and even Nyjer Morgan down there on the bottom...Were those sarcastic votes, or did they take the Award at face value as in the most valuable player to a particular team...? Either way, the recognition shouldn't go unnoticed...

• Albert Pujols gets 31 1st place votes. Who can argue with that? No one in the SB Nation apparently...

• Hanley Ramirez as the runner-up? The soon-to-be 26-year-old Marlins' SS knocked in 106 with 197 hits (42 doubles, 24 HR's) in 576 AB's, for a league-leading .342 AVG, a .410 OBP, .543 SLG, a .954 OPS, (148 OPS+), and 27 stolen bases?

• Only one pitcher in the top 12? Is that just because they have their own award? Do you think Tim Lincecum was clearly the most valuable pitcher?

• Who is your Most Valuable National? Dunn? Zimmerman? Lannan? Morgan?

Poll

Who is the 2009 NL MVP?

Albert Pujols (STL)

118 votes

Chase Utley (PHI)

10 votes

Tim Lincecum (SFG)

3 votes

Hanley Ramirez (FLA)

4 votes

Ryan Howard (PHI)

4 votes

Prince Fielder (MIL)

1 votes

Troy Tulowitzki (COL)

5 votes

145 votes | Poll has closed

With Miguel Tejada most likely on his way out, Tommy Manzella is in as Astros Shortstop in 2010

HighLeveragePerformer — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 17:47:09 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

Tommy Manzella and Michael Bourn would give the Astros one of the best defensive SS-CF combos in the NL Central

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Straight from Eddy Wade's mouth:

At this point, we’re prepared to commit to Tommy Manzella playing shortstop.

The possibility remains that Tejada could return as a third baseman.

Tommy Manzella grades anywhere from good to very good at shortstop. AstroAndy did a fine comparison between Manzella and former Astro Adam Everett a few months ago. Replacing this kind of defense with Manzella's defensive abilities at short would definitely be a boon.

As far as being able to retain Miguel Tejada as a third baseman, I don't know if that would be in the cards. His Bill James projection for 2010 is actually better in terms of runs created per game as compared to 2009. The million dollar-plus question will be if that production is worth spending X amount of dollars more on the veteran Tejada vs. some sort of platoon with Blum/Kepp/C. Johnson.

With Lance Berkman, Geoff Blum, Kaz Matsui and Jeff Keppinger already assured of spots on the club in 2010, Ed Wade will have decisions to make on which other infielders to bring in. It seems as if Tommy Manzella will play shorstop, as a trade or free agent signing isn't likely. While Chris Johnson has shown promise, don't look past Jeff Keppinger as a good option to be a starter on this team. He's not going to get David Wright AB's, but he is right at the peak of his career and is looked at as being a solid contributor in 2010. A fairly cheap contract makes him nearly as attractive as Johnson for the cost conscious Astros.

Bottom line, this was the first real indication of what changes we can expect in our 2010 Astros. For those who missed having a superb defensive shortstop, your wish looks like it may be coming true. Tommy Manzella will need time to adjust to major league hitting, but he has shown the ability to approach Everett's level offensively. That may not wow you, but remember that the cost is right with Manzella. Get used to hearing that sort of rationalization from the Astros camp. Keep in mind as well that Gio Mier is drawing rave reviews as the best defensive shortstop from the 2009 draft and his bat has been better than advertised so far as a professional. View Manzella however you want- a defensive savant, a stopgap, Adam Everett, 2.0. He makes the league minimum, and when your team is dominated by three player's salaries, those are the sort of trade offs a team must make.

As for Miguel Tejada, it doesn't appear that he will be back as an Astro, despite the door being left open for his return. He turned in a nice offensive season and as stated earlier is supposed to be even better in 2010. It's probable that another club gives him a shot at third, and does so with a contract whose value is close to eight figures per season. The Astros have three serviceable to slightly above serviceable options at third base, which leaves Tejada as the odd man out in my mind.

Managing the Houston Astros: Brad Mills' and his ability to define himself

HighLeveragePerformer — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 11:15:14 -0000

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Approach the signing of our new manager from that perspective and you can't help but be optimistic about the winter and the regular season ahead. So Manny Acta turned us down, because our owner wouldn't throw an extra year on a contract. Can anyone honestly say that they didn't think Drayton McLane would mess up the negotiations process? How that man is a success in the business world is a mystery to me. Bottom line, TCB's main man got away and there's a new man to denigrate/laud depending upon the outcome of a particular game. It's the nature of the beast, and Brad Mills is going to learn that from the get go.

After thinking more and more about what to write I sort of encountered a mental brick wall. DQ and David have ably analyzed Mr. Mills' career to this point, and I don't think I could have done a better job. At this point let's just be thankful that the process is over, Mr. Mills is in tow, and the Astros coaching staff is about to come together.

The bench coach is to baseball as the asst. head coach/coordinator is to football. When an NFL team hires an offensive/defensive coordinator to be a head coach, at least a fan knows what his track record is. How does he handle a particular defense? What are his tendencies? Game management, interaction with his players and preparedness would all be fairly evident from his previous job held. In baseball, we don't have that luxury. Terry Francona, as much as we maybe don't want to hear this, is not Brad Mills. The man Drayton hired as our manager is going to develop his identity as an Astro. Michael Bourn, Lance Berkman, Sammy Gervacio and Bud Norris are going to help define Mills' status as a major league manager. Cecil Cooper wasn't able to do enough with what he was given. Hopefully Brad Mills can.

The Astros' roster is not the Red Sox' roster (in case you hadn't noticed). Kevin Youkilis is not walking through that door, but neither are the higher than high expectations that accompany the Sox year in and year out. Nope, the buzz surrounding Mills' maiden club is low and probably will stay that way until Opening Day. Unless Drayton's stock portfolio improves and a free pitcher lands on his door step, Mr. Mills is going to have a roster that lacks talent and is in need of a major dose of motivation. Some players are going to improve upon their 2009 seasons. Others will go the opposite direction. How Mills deals with all of them will determine whether or not he will be viewed as an improvement upon his predecessors.

Houston Astros manager, Brad Mills. Looks good to me. Now it's time for our new head man to define himself and his team, so that it's the Astros that look good.

Point/Counterpoint: Astros Managerial Search*

davoag — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 17:00:44 -0000

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Acta, obviously dejected he won't be an Astro

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*The part of Devil's Advocate will be played by Davo.

Is it really that bad that the Astros lost out on Manny Acta?

We've gone over his resume a ton, but let's talk about this one little thing: .385.

That's his winning percentage as a major league manager. No Cleveland manager has ever been hired with a career winning percentage that low, according to Chris Jaffe over at THT. The Indians have only been around since, oh, 1901 or so. The Astros have been around since '62, but still managed to hire someone with a worse record than Acta. That would be Preston Gomez in 1971. Gomez was coming off a disastrous four-year stretch as the skipper of the San Diego Padres.

But, wait, you say...Acta was sabotaged by a terrible Nationals team! He wasn't given a chance to win and did what he could with a bad product. I submit to you this man. Pena not only took a bad Royals team over .500 for the first time since 1994, he did it with Jose Lima playing a prominent role. Jose "Casa Ole" Lima! That the team lost 100 games the next season or that Pena hasn't gotten a whiff of another job opportunity since shows something, right?

Okay, so you still think losing Acta was a big real, right? Because Acta is this informed individual who uses advanced stats and doesn't like small ball. Let me posit another hypothesis: what if the only reason you like Acta's managerial style so much is because he's allowed you to see it? Look at the interviews he's done, how candid he's been with his quotes and how much information is out there on his process. Doesn't that strike you as odd? It's almost like he's running a campaign....go look on Google right now for Brad Mills. Do it, I'll wait...

What did you find? Not a whole lot. The guy's been managing forever in the minors, has been a bench coach on one of the best, smartest run teams of this decade and we have no quotes about his style? No interviews detailing his usage of splits or UZR numbers? What if Acta is just a better self-promoter? What if our whole perception of him is exactly what he intends us to see and is figment of our collective imaginations?

Now you've gone too far, you say. I probably did, yes. But it still strikes me as odd that Acta is as open as he's been about everything. Didn't he have a blog too at some point this season? Was I dreaming that? It should be considered is all. Do we want our local skipper to have a better relationship with Justice than with Drayton?

So what about Garner then? He's reliable, he's been tested. In fact, he's the only manager to ever get the Astros to the World Series. That's got to count for something, right? Except that he was fired once by this same team. The same team that featured Roy Oswalt, Carlos Lee and Lance Berkman. Those guys are the tone-setters and they know Garner. I'd argue that this is a bad thing, but is it? The real problem is that Garner didn't distinguish himself as a tactician back then, making an impact more with his calming influence on the club. This current team needs more than an emotional impact, though. They need new thinking.

Don't feel too bad for Ed, Tal and Drayton. So they have to go to their second choice. It's not that bad. Corporations do it all the time. You think ESPN doesn't turn down their top choice for editorial gigs if they ask for more money? The guy just behind you on the pile can do the job about as well as you for the pay we're offering. How is that a bad decision? Plus, will Mills or Garner really be 'managing for their job' if they get just a two-year deal? Shouldn't they always be managing that way? Winning is what we want, it's what the players want, it's what Drayton wants. Why should his employee not want that same thing right away? Certainly, I'm not advocating firing someone before those two years are up, but there should be some urgency there, regardless if they have a contract or not.

Sure, Acta would have been a nice hire, but him going to Cleveland isn't the worst thing in the world. I have thought all kinds of unkind things about Drayton and the front office's lack of commitment to winning. Lately, it's the draft and international free agent spending that gets me the most. Still, I just don't see this as the case with Acta. Sure, everyone liked him, but obviously Drayton didn't like him enough. I'm sure Wade loved C.C. last offseason too, but you didn't see McLane backing up the wheelbarrow for Sabathia. Find me two starting pitchers and a good hitter for the left side of the infield and this offseason will be considered a success.

Sunday Afternoon Astros, etc. Round Up: Refreshingly not all about managerial candidates

DyingQuail — Sun, 18 Oct 2009 16:42:23 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

At this point, I'm just trying to post awesome pictures from the season.

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Playoff baseball has not disappointed in the last forty-eight hours, and that is a good thing. It's been a pleasant distraction from focusing on the managerial search in minute detail. I feel as though the interview process for us as fans, is pretty useless. As Footer stated in a link I have below, "it is impossible for me to size up the candidates during a 10-minute media briefing and tell who was the most impressive during his 2 1/2 hour interview session with the club's decision-makers." For that reason alone, I've tried my best to remain aloof from it, but I haven't forsaken the process completely. Hopefully by mid-week I'll have my next contribution to better informing us about the candidates.

But on with the reason your reading this: links to stuff you can read while you watch a little pig skin (or obsessively watch your fantasy football tracker...).

I'll start with Footer's link because I liked her insight the best and she always has pictures. Plus I quoted her above. Alyson throws out whom she feels has a leg up in the race.
Richard Justice gives us Drayton McLane's mailing address and urges us to hire Garner (probably the most useful thing Justice will ever do for us). I feel like we can do a lot more productive things with this information...like mail him a giant petition urging him to sell the team, and bring in a new, fresh group willing to spend money and trust smart people to make smart decisions with it. But if you want to endorse Garner via snail mail, go for it. There's a lot about the article I'd like to pick apart, but I'll leave the fun and excitement for you.
I'll be honest, there are a lot of these managerial candidates who I don't know from Adam's house cat. So when I came across this synopsis of Mackanin, I have to admit, I perked up a little bit:

Mackanin, the bench coach for the Philadelphia Phillies, is in his 41st season of professional baseball. He is searching for his first non-interim managerial position in the major leagues... He has run the gamut in baseball from scouting, to the minor leagues, to managing in Latin America to being a part of four major league coaching staffs since 1997.

The Chronicle hosted a poll asking which of the ten candidates should be the next manager, the results shocked the [expletive deleted] of me.

(Ok, we're done with managerial talk.)

A cool retrospective of Lance Berkman's career from Astros.com. There's a crazy photo of Lance in his early twenties as Rice Owl.
Zach Levine remains above the managerial search fray and lets us know just exactly where all the Astros who are playing winter ball will be playing it.
JC Bradbury takes a look at an attempt to rebunk wins. I used to read Bradbury all the time and then stopped for a year or so. I'm glad I got back on board, though.
BtB's Daily Box Score asks, and attempts to answer, "What do the playoffs tell us?"
Finally, a pretty incredible glossary and guide to understanding Japanese baseball (research provided by SABR).

Busting out in the Divisional Round: Alex Rodriguez and Jeff Bagwell

HighLeveragePerformer — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 11:00:37 -0000

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Story after story after story have been written in the past week about Alex Rodriguez' playoff redemption. For a player as maligned as Rodriguez, truly positive press can be hard to come by. After a season of high expectations for his team, the Yankee third baseman thriving outside of the spotlight- free agent signees Mark Teixeira, AJ Burnett and CC Sabathia, the resurgent Derek Jeter and their new baseball palace have stolen headlines that used to belong to A-Rod. If the result of this relative lack of exposure is the success we've witnessed over the first few games of the playoffs, then maybe Rodriguez could use some of that $300 million contract to force the NY beat writers to focus on Jerry Hairston, Jr. and Brett Gardner in 2010.

Besides the lessening of external pressure on the slugger, the lineup the Yankees have fielded this season is much stronger than those in playoff years past. Outside of 2004, his playoff performances have been well below his career averages. It's tough to judge a player based off of fewer than 35 AB, but it's the nature of the beast playing in New York, on baseball's biggest stage.

Jeff Bagwell never had to deal with the New York media, or the ire of the baseball public during his illustrious career. After four failed attempts to escape the first round the playoffs, Bagwell and the Astros finally managed to lay their collective demons to rest by beating the Atlanta Braves in the 2004 NLDS. Bags would see extended playoff ABs for the first time in his career, and he responded by posting a stupendous "triple-slash" of .318/.400/.682 in 22 ABs. No longer would he be forced to head into yet another off season coming off of tepid October performances.

Was there anything special about that October as compared to 1997, '98, '99 or 2001 (which in fairness was a solid, albeit short, postseason for Jeff)?

1997:

Position	Player	wOBA
C	Bradley	.305
1B	Bags	.428
2B	Craig	.410
3B	S. Berry/Spiers	.316/.404
SS	Bogar/Ricky	.315/.302
LF	Gonzo	.320
CF	Hidalgo	.373
RF	Abreu	.319

1998:

Position	Player	wOBA
C	Ausmus	.318
1B	Bags	.422
2B	Craig	.406
3B	Berry	.387
SS	Gutierrez	.301
LF	Alou	.416
CF	Everett	.359
RF	Bell	.373

1999:

Position	Player	wOBA
C	Eusebio	.320
1B	Bags	.422
2B	Craig	.368
3B	Cammy	.374
SS	Bogar	.294
LF	Javier	.374
CF	Everett	.416
RF	Bell	.296

Note: This season saw the likes of Daryle Ward (.336), Javier, and Matt Mieske (.333) start playoff games in the outfield. Yikes.

2001:

Position	Player	wOBA
C	Bradley	.270
1B	Bags	.408
2B	Craig	.364
3B	V. Castilla	.339
SS	J. Lugo	.303
LF	Alou	.397
CF	Hidalgo	.346
RF	Lance	.435

2004:

Position	Player	wOBA
C	Bradley	.271
1B	Bags	.364
2B	Kent	.369
3B	Ensberg	.321
SS	Everett	.313
LF	Craig	.349
CF	Beltran	.404
RF	Lance	.427

While the addition of Beltran and Kent in 2004 were huge additions, it wasn't as if the Astros became the '27 Yankees. In fact, this was Bagwell's worst season in his career (to that point), yet he had his best postseason ever. While A Rod's mates are clearly superior in 2009 than in seasons past, the same can't truly be said of Bags' bunch in 2004. Between his and Craig's declines, and the lowest output from 3B since 1997, this was a pretty good, but not superior lineup. What surprised me was that Jeff Kent, a power hitting second baseman throughout his career, posted Biggio-like numbers at second in 2004. Lance Berkman is great....like, "play for five more seasons and punch his ticket to Cooperstown" great.

If anything, I'd chalk up their 2004 NLCS appearance to not having to face Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Kevin Brown, and John Smoltz, and instead facing off against Jaret Wright, John Thomson, Russ Ortiz and Mike Hampton. Wait a second...Ortiz? Hampton? Weren't they on the....this season? Damn.