SB Nation - Brian Moehler

Thursday Morning Astros, etc. Round Up: Michael Bourn's big day

DyingQuail — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 15:12:33 -0000

That's right ladies and gents, an Astros player took him some awards season hardware. I have to admit, I was a little suprised when my phone lit up with a text from HLP informing me that Michael Bourn had won himself a gold glove. Why? I don't know. It makes sense, but I guess I'm just used to Astros players not mattering in these sorts of things because they play for...well...the Astros.

Today is pretty much all about the big day that Bourn had, so let's break it down:

Excitingly enough, Richard Justice offers us this open invitation in his reaction to Bourn's Gold Glove:

The next time I judge a trade too soon, I want someone to stuff a large sock with Twinkies and smack me in my pretty face.

Ed Wade, as a favor to all of us, please make a trade this offseason. Please, please, please, please, please. Other than this tempting invitation that I will hold in my heart, Justice doesn't offer much of anything new.

Beyond the Box Score takes a look at who won the NL Gold Gloves and who should have based on bUZR plus FanScouting reports. Thankfully, they don't take issue with Bourn's Gold Glove, which would have rankled me. I think there were at least ten different occasions this season where we discussed how off Bourn's UZR seemed in comparison to what we were seeing. As clack noted yesterday, Bourn was among the best in RZR, and had an astounding 113 out of zone outs. It's that final number that I think demonstrates how great defensively Bourn is. It can't be easy playing CF in a park like MMP and covering for one of the worst LFers in MLB. Remarkably, Bourn does it, and does it well.

The Unofficial Scorer weighs in on a few subjects (even giving FarmStros some love), but I think he sums Bourn's Gold Glove the best of anything I've read on it yet (no offense, HLP):

Normally, I'm pretty statistically-minded, but I've come to trust [UZR] less and less, for measurements over any unit of time below careers. Bourn was right around zero for much of the season, and I really don't think my eyes were deceiving me on his true worth in the outfield.

Rounding out Michael Bourn's ego inflating day (seriously, what a day) was the announcement that he was voted as the team's MVP by the BWAA. Sure, I argued for Wandy Rodriguez, but I won't find any fault with this vote. HLP, I guess you were right.

What's particularly awesome about the awards (Wandy was pitcher of the year, Jeff Fulchino ROY—very deserving), was this:

Veteran right-hander Brian Moehler won the Darryl Kile Good Guy Award, which is given to a player who exhibits good character.

File that under random career accomplishments, but congrats nonetheless to Mr. Moehler.

Astros Roster Breakdown: The Starters

davoag — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 21:49:44 -0000

More photos » by Dino Vournas - AP

Roy Oswalt, in a rare good mood

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To lead off the starters section, I wanted to focus a little on Roy Oswalt. The soon-to-be 32-year old had his worst season as a professional, but was that a sign of aging and decline, or just a bump in the road?

His BABiP shows he wasn't unlucky in 2009 and was right in line with his career average. He also didn't throw more pitchers per plate appearance than he has in his career, while getting the most swinging strikes he's had since 2004. He did have a slight dip in his percentage of strikeouts that were looking, but since his swing and miss percentage didn't change, I think that was more statistical noise than anything.

You can't even blame injuries for hampering his stuff, because his fastball velocity was the same as it has been for the past few years. In fact, it actually ticked up a notch, but that's probably because of the only significant difference in his performance this season, a 5% drop in the number of fastballs he threw. Oswalt supplemented with more sliders and changeups. So, speed was not an issue...was something wrong with his movement? I wish I were smart enough to put together those cool scatter charts using the PitchF/X data, but I'm not there yet. I'd really like to see if he lost movement or late life on his fastball to determine if that's what the injuries robbed him of.

Other than possibly that, it appears his main problem may have been his attitude. Clashing so publicly and so often with Cecil Cooper, Roy just didn't give off the vibes of a guy playing his best. I'm sure he was playing his hardest, since he seems to have only one speed in that regard. But I wonder if he was mentally there this season. It's the one thing we can't really quantify, attitude.

Hear that, Brad Mills? Keep The Wizard happy next season and he'll bounce back.

Onto the rest of the starting rotation after the jump...

Roy Oswalt, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 8-6, 181 1/3 IP, 4.12 ERA, 30 GS, 19 HR, 138 strikeouts, 42 walks, 1.24 WHIP, 101 ERA+

FIP: 3.76

Average Game Score: 53

BABiP:.305

GB/FB: 1.21

Pitching Runs Created: 70

Notes: Since we've already talked about Roy-Boy's career trajectory, let's focus in on his 2009 season. Is this just the pitcher Roy is now? He struggled with getting any kind of decision all season, finishing with 16 non-decisions. His BABiP was right in line with normal luck, and he still got plenty of ground balls. The concerning part is his strikeout total, but as I said, that's been pretty steady for the past four seasons. His FIP shows he should have had a better ERA, but it would still have been his highest in his career. Roy was one of the main players disappointed in Cooper. Hopefully, he'll be motivated in 2010, because with Roy feeling right and Wandy pitching well, we will have a nice front end to the rotation. About that back end, though...

Wandy Rodriguez, LHP

2009 Season Stats: 14-12, 205 2/3 IP, 3.02 ERA, 33 GS, 21 HR, 193 strikeouts, 63 walks, 1.24 WHIP, 138 ERA+

FIP: 3.54

Average Game Score: 57

BABiP:.306

GB/FB: 1.21

Pitching Runs Created:100

Notes: Wandy was the best pitcher on the Astros staff last season. To put it in perspective, the difference between his and Roy's PRC was Mike Hampton. Maybe overly simple, but pretty amazing, no? Wandy's BABiP showed he wasn't just lucky to pitch this well and his strikeout total is very impressive, especially for a lefty. You'd like to see a few fewer walks, but that's just quibbling. The other interesting thing is his game scores. At 57, it was the highest of any of the starters and showed just how good he was game-to-game. His home/away splits were still very pronounced, though his strikeout rate was about the same. Two full runs of ERA though? For Wandy to take that next step to be an ace, he needs to perform better in road games.

Brian Moehler, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 8-12, 154 2/3 IP, 5.47 ERA, 29 GS, 21 HR, 91 strikeouts, 51 walks, 1.53 WHIP, 76 ERA+

FIP: 4.75

Average Game Score: 44

BABiP:.325

GB/FB: 1.25

Pitching Runs Created: 39

Notes: Moehler started the third-most games on the team last season. The trouble was, he did not perform like a third starter. Though his FIP was lower than his ERA and his BABiP meant he was a little unlucky, Moehler was more bad than good. His strikeouts and walks were both not where they should be. Though he had a good G/F ratio, his average game score shows he was a below league average starter in most of his outings. Much was made about a few of his starts at the beginning and end of the season blowing his ERA up too high. If you added 50 points to his total game score, he still would be well belew the the baseline. As a back-end starter? Moehler probably is useful, but will be recovering from a knee injury he had surgery on. Still, for 3 million? He's not a bad option.

Mike Hampton, LHP

2009 Season Stats: 7-10, 112 IP, 5.30 ERA, 21 GS, 13 HR, 74 strikeouts, 37 walks, 1.55 WHIP, 78 ERA+

FIP: 4.57

Average Game Score: 45

BABiP:.322

GB/FB: 1.78

Pitching Runs Created: 30

Notes: Hampy did just what we thought he'd do, getting a ton of ground balls and not really overpowering anyone. Oh, and getting hurt. He did that too. It's a little surprising Hampton gave up as many home runs as he did, but it did appear this experiment failed.

Felipe Paulino, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 3-11, 97 2/3 IP, 6.27 ERA, 17 GS, 20 HR, 93 strikeouts, 37 walks, 1.67 WHIP, 66 ERA+

FIP: 5.11

Average Game Score: 45

BABiP:.368

GB/FB: 1.08

Pitching Runs Created: 24

Notes: Obviously, anytime a hot, young prospect makes his debut and promptly posts a 6+ ERA, it's hard to be very excited. I still think his performance was somewhat affected by recovering from his 2008 injury, even if only slightly. His strikeouts numbers were great, though he gave up too many hits to win consistently. Paulino is too talented not to win more than three games next season, but it may take him a while to adjust. The Astros would pay more on the open market for a pitcher without nearly the upside of Paulino.

Russ Ortiz, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 3-6, 85 2/3 IP, 5.57 ERA, 13 GS, 8 HR, 65 strikeouts, 48 walks, 1.67 WHIP, 75 ERA+

FIP: 4.61

Average Game Score: 42

BABiP:.330

GB/FB: 1.62

Pitching Runs Created: 23

Notes: Ouch. The positives? Ortiz only gave up eight home runs and had a nice G/F ratio of 1.62. That's about it, though, as his nice start gave way to a rough time in the rotation. Ortiz wasn't as bad as his ERA indicated, but neither was he very good. He was hittable and probably was best as a swingman in the bullpen. He'll have to be that for some other team though, as I don't see the Astros bringing him back.

Bud Norris, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 6-3, 55 2/3 IP, 4.53 ERA, 10 GS, 54 strikeouts, 25 walks, 1.50 WHIP, 92 ERA+

FIP: 4.77

Average Game Score: 49

BABiP:.327

GB/FB: 0.87

Pitching Runs Created: 20

Notes: Norris had the most successful debut of any Astros rookie in 2009. He had some rough patches, obviously, but his average game score was still just a shade under average. He was a bit unlucky with his BABiP and gave up too many fly balls, but the strikeouts were there and the walks were minimized. I don't know whether he can get his control working well enough to be a permanent fixture in the rotation, but with his arm, he will have a place on the big league team for a while.

Yorman Bazardo, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 1-3, 32 IP, 7.88 ERA, 6 GS, 17 strikeouts, 22 walks, 1.84 WHIP, 53 ERA+

FIP: 5.00

Average Game Score: 34

BABiP:.323

GB/FB: 1.52

Pitching Runs Created:5

Notes: The Astros won a bidding war to sign Bazardo to a minor league deal in spring training. He joined with Bud Norris and, later, Polin Trinidad to form a potent rotation at Round Rock. Unfortunately, Bazardo may be the proverbial Quadruple-A guy. His strikeout rate has never been very good (5.3 K/9 in minor-league career), though he supplements that by not allowing too many walks. Bazardo does get a fair number of ground balls and his BABiP showed he was slightly unlucky in 2009. His ERA, though, doesn't really support the claim that his failure was all because of Tejada and Matsui. Bazardo should probably be given another shot, but he's a fringe fifth starter at most.

Wilton Lopez, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 0-2, 19 1/3 IP, 8.38 ERA, 2 GS, 9 strikeouts, 8 walks, 2.07 WHIP, 50 ERA+

FIP: 6.25

Average Game Score: 35

BABiP:.381

GB/FB: 2.32

Pitching Runs Created: 2

Notes: Lopez pitched eight games out of the bullpen, but did start two games, so he ended up in this list. A pickup from the Padres, Lopez pitched relatively well for Corpus Christi before getting a late-season callup. Lopez had a good ground ball rate for his limited sample size and his FIP was lower than his ERA (though neither were very good). He profiles as a guy who could hang around Triple-A and help the Astros out in a pinch, but I wouldn't count on him contributing much in 2009.

Brandon Backe, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 0-0, 13 IP, 10.38 ERA, 1 GS, 10 strikeouts, 6 walks, 2.08 WHIP, 40 ERA+

FIP: 7.94

Average Game Score: 41

BABiP:.375

GB/FB: 0.77

Pitching Runs Created: 2

Notes:You'll find no bigger fan of the Galveston native than me. Jeff Kent's home run to beat the Cards in 2004 wouldn't have been possible without Backe throwing a whale of a game. Unfortunately, that's all we got from him. Tantalizing glimpses at potential that never really panned out in the majors. Backe ran into a wall of injuries and ineffectiveness in 2009, refused a demotion to Triple-A and was released.

Wednesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 14:07:20 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

Casey McGehee, seen here being congratulated by Felipe Lopez after hitting a home run in July, was the National League Rookie of the Month for September.

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Some things to read while learning a new skill.

It's a light news day, so the biggest story is probably the unveiling of 2010 ticket prices, which I'm having a hard time getting developing an opinion about either way. Prices are going up slightly, but not enough to really get upset about. (FanShot)

That might have been the most lackluster opening paragraph in a Mug all year. Maybe I need to check into Casa de Machado's starting lineup from yesterday.

Casey McGehee was named NL Rookie of the Month for September, a pretty fitting cap on a surprising season for a guy who quickly became a great story (FanShot).

Speaking of rookies, Alcides Escobar will technically still count as a rookie next season, as he narrowly avoided the 130 AB cutoff. Mat Gamel, on the other hand, spent more than the maximum 45 days on a major league roster this season, so he's not eligible.

Speaking of Escobar, Chris Mehring of Rattler Radio received the latest copy of Baseball America and noted that Escobar was the first team shortstop on their all levels all star team this season. Brett Lawrie was also the second team second baseman, and Eric Farris and Evan Anundsen made the all Advanced-A team.

Speaking of shortstops, Adam Guttridge of The Hardball Times took a first look at attempts to project J.J. Hardy's performance for next season, and thinks the team that eventually acquires him from the Brewers is going to get a great deal.

With the regular season officially over, it's time for Plunk Everyone to look back at the season that was. Jason Kendall, Dave Bush, Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder and Felipe Lopez all make an appearance in their NL awards.

Fielder and Braun also show up on this somewhat more prestigious list: The top ten batters in the majors, ranked by OPS+. Fielder finished third, behind Albert Pujols and Joe Mauer, and Braun finished tied with Ben Zobrist for tenth place.

These probably don't go together, but I'm lumping them together anyway as "Power Rankings and whatnot:"

WhatifSports ranked the Brewers #16 in their final power rankings of 2009.
The Dugout Doctors ranked Bernie Brewer as baseball's fifth best mascot.

There are three hot stove notes today that pertain to the Brewers in one way or another:

The Brewers can almost certainly be considered the early favorite to sign Doug Davis, especially considering he's not expected to return to the D-Backs.
The Padres may be looking to sign a center fielder this offseason, and Mike Cameron's name has come up.
The Astros exercised their half of a mutual option on pitcher Brian Moehler. If Moehler accepts (and it's pretty likely he will), he'll make $3.5 million next season. He'll be 38 before spring training and posted a 5.47 ERA in 154.2 innings this season. Don't be surprised if this is mentioned as justification for bringing back Braden Looper: If Moehler, who is older, posted a higher ERA and pitched fewer innings than Looper, is actually worth $3.5 million, then $6.5 million for Looper can be spun as a decent deal.

Elsewhere on the hot stove:

White Sox: Exercised 2010 options on pitchers Freddy Garcia and Matt Thornton.

There was only one major league game yesterday, but it was a classic. If you missed it, you can relive it through the FanGraphs Win Expectancy Graph. Coming into the weekend, I didn't really have a strong rooting interest in the Twins-Tigers race, aside from a slight inclination to see the Twins win so we'd keep getting baseball analysis from Aaron Gleeman's mom.

With that said, the Tigers (and Major League Baseball's) handling of the Miguel Cabrera situation made me a whole-hearted Twins fan for the day yesterday. After the game, Cabrera seemed to understand the gravity of the situation, but that doesn't change the fact that he shouldn't have been allowed to play. Furthermore, Jim Leyland's decision to brush off questions about a domestic assault investigation by calling it "gossip" is absolutely deplorable.

On a lighter note, yesterday's game did give us a preview of the upcoming TBS playoff coverage, and the early reviews aren't very good. I've probably seen a dozen or more complaints about Chip Caray this morning, but he was only the second worst part of yesterday's broadcast to me, behind the incessant airing of the same commercial for George Lopez's new show. By the end of the divisional round, even Frank Caliendo is going to be sick of it.

It's a rough week for anyone who works in the front office of a baseball team, as firing season has clearly opened. Paul DePodesta, the Padres' Assistant GM who's been fired as a GM once himself, has an inside view of what it's like to work in a business where friends can come and go so quickly.

Need a mental warmup today? Try naming the career home run leaders by last initial. (Hint: There are two former Brewers.) I got 13, but also got frustrated and gave up with over four minutes left.

Once your brain is warmed up, turn it on to this task: The Eastern League team formerly known as the Connecticut Defenders is moving to Richmond, and they need a new name. Their existing options universally suck, so CNBC's Darren Rovell is asking for your help to generate some new ones.

Happy birthday today to Tim Unroe, who appeared in 48 games as a Brewer between 1995 and 1997 and turns 39 today, and to West Bend native Ryan Rohlinger, who turns 26.

Drink up.

Wednesday Morning Astros, etc. Round Up

DyingQuail — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 11:15:27 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

Just make that sign brick red and black/gold and we're golden.

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It takes two separate links to make this a real story as I approach the midnight hour. First, Ed Wade informed the Chronicle that the Astros were exercising their part of Brian Moehler's 2010 option. Then, just before 9PM, Brian McTaggart tweeted that he had talked to Moehler and that Moehler also intends to to pick up his part of the option. So yes, 2010 will see more Brian Moehler—rest easy. Also awesome to note (not really), the Astros 2010 Hotstove Season begins with Brian Moehler's option being picked up.
This link is really about the the Astros managerial search, but what I am caught up on is the BS that Drayton McLane is trying to pass off in this quote:

"I think there will be a lot of good candidates," he said. "Houston is one of the best five or six teams in baseball, the fourth-biggest city in baseball and has some of the best attendance in baseball. I feel there will be strong candidates because we're a major city and have one of the best baseball fields. Our organization, in the 17 years I've owned the team, has the fifth-best record in all of baseball."

nothing

The Unofficial Scorer breaks down the Astros highs and lows and than places our dismal season in context.

*******The next three stories are from the Wall Street Journal simply because they're the only newspaper that has a reader-app for Blackberry.********

First up, some interesting current player, former player, manager, league owner, etc. reactions about how the division series impact baseball. Mr. Brad Ausmus gets quoted in reference to the 1998 model Astros.
Not the greatest effort at to proving a point, but perhaps one of the best mainstream treatments of the controversy over clutch hitting I've come across.
Tangentially related, but PECOTA creator and now political stat guru extraordinaire, Nate Silver made headlines this week. Having run into Nate at a bar in New York this summer, I'm glad he's getting national recognition for the work he does at fivethirtyeight.com because hearing the passion he brings to that project straight from the horses mouth was inspiring.

This is way the Astros season ends: Not with a bang, but a whimper

DyingQuail — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 12:58:48 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

My feelings exactly, Aaron.

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I've done pretty much anything but think about the Astros today. There were too many mixed emotions to sort through; too many other tantalizing distractions to latch onto. I've watched a dismal Fantasy Football day crush my spirits, the Texans look weak in the second half against the Oakland Raiders, talked HLP down from the ledge as he fretted about his ability to clinch our rotisserie keeper-league (he did, Congrats buddy, you earned it).

I didn't even watch the Astros game. I couldn't.

I saw the standard tweets about it on my desktop client (Tweetie) and that was enough depression for me. The most critical thinking I could bring myself to do about the Astros was a few expletive deleted texts and about five minutes worth of phone conversation between HLP and myself. I don't know why it is that I feel this way, or I have felt this way for the last few weeks, but I think the catharsis of knowing that it's over has finally allowed me to snap out of my funk.

I can still remember when the glimmer of hope I had for this season was born. BtB's Sky Kalkman emailed me the spreadsheet for his Community Projection Project and I rushed to input all the projections. Without any fan embellishment, we were something like an 80 win team. It was late December and I was shocked. Flabbergasted. Almost afraid to actually publish the result publically. I probably wrote about seven drafts of an email I never sent Sky explaining—politely—that I thought his spreadsheet was broken.

We spent the next few weeks tweaking and refining the inputs and suddenly we were an 82 win team. Then in late March Ivan Rodriguez and Jeff Keppinger landed in Houston and we quickly became an 83 win team. There was probably inflation, but a .500 season seemed realistic, and there were all the variables in place to allow for some kind of meaningful and exciting season to get underway.

April and May saw the NL Central become a smorgasbord of stories that had thrown the conventional off-season predications of how the Central would play out, out. Yet the Astros struggled for most of it and seemed destined to be mired in irrelevancy, even as opportunity knocked. I managed to avoid excess worry and pessimism during this stretch by being wrapped up in graduating from college and then not living like a member of the real world for the next month (that month will easily go down as the most enjoyable month of my life). Perhaps that's what insulated my glimmer of hope and kept me set up for the inexorable Astros-depression that has plagued me as of late (does semi-ignorance count as denial?)

June arrived and the Astros were quietly good. The responsibility of covering the team on a daily basis allowed for me to be slow to notice the fact that the Astros were stringing together victories and closing ground in the Central. So it was a very plesant surprise when I finally allowed myself to consider the possibility of the Astros becoming...contenders(?!).

By the time the All-Star break was upon us, I don't think that there were many of us who weren't starting to harbor something akin to excitement. When we opened the second half by splitting the series with the Dodgers, I'd say most of us were starting to place ourselves in the camp of believers. I know I was.

Sure, there was a mountain of statistical evidence based on macro-level measures that could demonstrate how the Astros couldn't possibly succeed, but we saw a different picture. We saw a team that had been felled by Jose Valverde's monstrously wicked calf strain, Roy Oswalt's post-WBC inconsistency, and Lance Berkman's weird odd-year-early-season-under-perfomance. We were buoyed along by the fact that Wandy, in spite of his two weeks of HR/FB regression, was pitching consistently and finally living up to all of our hopes. There was Bud Norris tilling the farm in the PCL with a low 2.00 ERA and thus the hope that our rotation could only get better—not worse.

This all led to what I'll consider to be the peak of the Astros 2009 Season: July 20th-22nd. The NL Central leading Cardinals were going to be at MMP and the Astros had quite the opportunity on their hands. Prior to the Astros three game sweep of the Cards, I wrote the following:

Unlike previous years when the Astros and their fans had to hope and pray throughout the month of September that other teams would drop the ball while the Astros took care of other opponents, the Astros will be firmly in the drivers seat this time around from July 20th on...

...I consider this series to be the keynote address to how the Astros will handle the opportunity they're presented. They're only real opponent is themselves. This is a division, and even an Wild Card race, that has proven to be anything but decided ninety plus games into the season. So the Astros, flawed as they are, have legs to stand on in the search for October baseball, but we've all yet to figure out is how sturdy those legs ar e.

As we all know, the legs weren't that sturdy. Our offense collapsed into a black hole of paltry OBP (.305) and our farm hands and scrap heap veterans were anything but consistent as the season pressed forward on the mound for us. Even Roy Oswalt couldn't hold up.

But I don't want to get to that part yet.

There was a week long period after that where it genuinely felt like the Astros were going to do it. They were going to shock all of us and make a legitimate run at the playoffs. Actually take their fate in their own hands and dispatch their NL Central rivals. Maybe it was a fan's bias, but I did. Hell, I even put my neck on the chopping block and tried to show up SBN's own RJ Anderson when he wrote about how screwed the Astros actually were. I still don't think his argument was overwhelming, completely thought out, or entirely objective, but, in the end, he was right and I was wrong if you obscure the issue somewhat.

I think this is known as the first stage of grief: denial. What I was really saying and hoping was: "The Astros are fine, there's a way these obvious defects can be overcome. I can't say exactly how, I just believe they can."

Did I partake in too much of the Kool-Aid? Probably. But I really don't see how I couldn't. It felt like the stars were aligning. It felt like my sports luck was going to turn around. It felt like the baseball gods were going to pay us back for Hurricane Ike, the Selig/McLane/Cubs/Milwaukee fiasco, Joe Creede's ridiculously dumb defensive luck circa October 2005—everything.

It happened, though. Not a bang, but a whimper. The Astros dropped a series to the Mets at home. Then dropped series against Chicago on the road were swept by a Matt Holliday powered Cardinals. At the time it felt disconcerting, but certainly nothing to lose the faith over. After all it, was still just early August. It was impossible for me to fathom that it would be the start of a 25-42 run for the Astros. Reading that number right now it still seems impossible.

The team just started to slip way in bits and pieces. Chris Sampson went down, exposing the limits of the set-up men. Alberto Arais faltered and would go down with injury and later go under the knife. Bud Norris, whose was dazzling in his debut in St. Louis, started to get shelled. Yorman Bazardo got a call up to fill in for the now comical merry-go-round of Feliepe Paulino, Mike Hampton, Brian Moehler, and the released Ortiz, but struggled as well. Every game I oscillated between the anger and bargaining phases of grief. It was either: "What the hell is (object of my ire) doing/thinking, this is absurd. I can't believe they're finding new and impressive ways to blow this" or "Please baseball gods, please, just let them pull it together. It's not to late for them salvage something."

By the time September was underway, I was in full blown depression, the fourth stage. I didn't want to write about this team, I didn't want to think about this team, I didn't want to watch this team. Every loss was too painful; every glimmer of hope from Norris or Paulino tainted by my own jadedness. As I mulled over our options for 2010, the prospect of trying to make this team a contender on the budget Drayton McLane will provide did nothing to pull me out of my funk.

In the depression stage of grief, apparently one disconnects oneself by being silent. By not allowing their thoughts to be challenged or corrected by someone who could bring hope. Even though I wasn't writing, I was still reading. Most of you have continued to find the silver lining. Me, I couldn't stop adhering to Jerry Garcia's adage that every silver lining has a touch of gray.

Sure, Bud Norris has flashed brillance, but I've been stuck on knowing that he'll turn up injured before May rolls around next year. Paulino? He'll probably be on the Wandy Rodriguez path to greatness and take until 2013 to finally arrive. Wesley Wright's conversion to starter? Could Ed Wade be any more desperate for his owner to throw him a lifeline in the form a $10 million to go grab a worth while pitcher?

I could go on, but I think you get the point. That's pretty much how I've been thinking and feeling about the Astros for the last month. It's been awful.

Sometime around 8:30PM though, I finally reached the final stage, acceptance. Was this season a disappointment? Yes. Even so, it still provided a six to eight week stretch where people believed. Where people cared. Even though there's no one thing I can find to blame the Astros soul-crushing, for me, atrophy into the team that limped their way to a 25-42 final stretch, it's ok. I'm not sure there is. This once meteorically hot team just whimpered its way through the majority of the second half to a dismal 5th place finish in the NL Central. From one game behind on July 22nd, to seventeen games back on October 4th. It's probably fitting that they were shut out.

There's always next year.

It's still too soon for me to cling to that adage with the kind of hope I did last December, but at least that's what we have to focus on now.

Dodgers Hope For Success The Fourth Time Around

Eric Stephen — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 20:47:09 -0000

More photos » by Lenny Ignelzi - AP

The O-Dog has welcomed himself back into the Dodger lineup with a flourish.

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It was then that I got up to leave
But she said, "Don't forget,
Everybody must give something back
For something they get."

-Bob Dylan, 4th Time Around

After giving something back for three days, the Dodgers look to get something tonight. The Dodgers entered play Sunday with a magic number of one to clinch the National League West. Three days later, the magic number is still one. The Dodgers champagne and Visqueen party is tentatively scheduled again for tonight, as the Dodgers close out their road schedule with a final game in San Diego.

Jon Garland takes the hill tonight, making his sixth start as a Dodger. He has pitched well so far, with a 1.91 ERA, although his peripherals show a 3.55 FIP and 3.93 x-FIP since joining Los Angeles -- good, but not 1.91 ERA good. Part of the reason Garland has been so effective recently -- he has pitched six innings in 21 of 22 starts since the start of June -- is an increase in his strikeout rate. Before the All-Star break, Garland struck out a paltry 3.62 batters per nine innings, but since the midsummer classic he has upped that to 6.01 punchouts per nine. That is quite an increase for someone who hasn't struck out higher than 4.8 batters per nine innings since 2003.

Clayton Richard, a man who seems like he was named backwards, pitches for the Padres tonight. Richard, acquired from the White Sox in the Jake Peavy trade, is 4-2 with a 4.58 ERA, 4.77 FIP, and 4.60 x-FIP since joining the Padres. However, he has really taken a liking to his new home park. In five starts at Petco Park, Richard has a 2.48 ERA, and the Padres have won all five games.

With the left-handed Richard throwing tonight, it might not be a bad idea to sit Andre Ethier, who is in the midst of a one-for-28 slump. Ethier still has the weird split this season in that he has just seven singles in 81 at-bats against southpaws on the road, hitting .086/.196/.086 against them. Part of that is bad luck -- he has a ridiculously low .121 batting average on balls in play -- but a day off might serve him well.

Speaking a time off helping a player: Since rejoining the lineup on September 25, Orlando Hudson has played five complete games and is hitting .333/.556/.750 with six walks and two triples. Maybe that rest did him some good. He has triples in consecutive games for the second time this season. Since moving to Los Angeles, only Pedro Guerrero had a longer streak, with three straight in July 1983.

The Padres are 12 games over .500 since July 27, and their 35-23 record over that time is tied with the Rockies for tops in the division. Of course, they have also only outscored their opponents by 15 runs in that span, compared to the +63 run differential for the 31-28 Dodgers.

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Other games of Dodger interest:

The Phillies host the Astros, with a magic number of one to clinch the NL East over the Braves. Pedro Martinez opposes Brian Moehler in that game. The Dodgers hold a 1½-game lead over the Phillies in the race for home field advantage in the playoffs. The Dodgers magic number in this regard is three over the Phillies.

4:05pm - Astros at Phillies Gameday

The NL Central champion Cardinals are in Cincinnati to face the Reds, with John Smoltz facing the high straight leg kick of Bronson Arroyo. The Dodgers hold a 2½-game lead over the Cards in the race for home field advantage in the playoffs. The Dodgers magic number in this regard is also three over the Cardinals.

4:10pm - Cardinals at Reds Gameday

The Rockies host the Brewers at 5:40pm, a game that starts roughly 85 minutes before the Dodger game. Jason Hammel will face Milwaukee's Jeff Suppan. One Rockies loss or one Dodger win means a division crown for Los Angeles.

5:40pm - Brewers at Rockies Gameday

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Be sure to check out Xeifrank's simulation of tonight's game here.

Don't forget to RSVP for True Blue LA Day at Dodger Stadium, on the next-to-last day of the regular season, October 3 against the Rockies. There are three tickets left.

Get your guesses in for today's final "One, Two, Three Strikes, You're Out," here.

Game Time: 7:05pm

TV: Prime Ticket

Baseball Reference Preview

Can the 2010 Astros be competitive?

DyingQuail — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 12:00:29 -0000

More photos » by Dave Einsel - AP

My opinion: 2010 hinges on this man's performance.

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I'll admit from the outset that this depressing for me to write for two reasons. One, of course, being that it's depressing that I can't find anything worth writing about the 2009 Astros and two being that I am left wondering how the 2010 Astros can do better than their 2009 version. This ominous thought has been lurking in the back of my mind since I did an interview with Fred Fauor a few weeks ago in which the topic of how the 2010 Astros should assemble themselves left me clawing for any semblance of hope (which is a sports fan's best friend in times like these).

The logical place to start this conversation is payroll. A team can't build something if it can't afford to buy the requisite building materials. Everytime I have tried to account for the dollars and cents of the core of the Astros roster for next year I've totaled $75 to $82 million. This roster includes (with best guess efforts for arbitration bonuses and salary escalation):

Lance Berkman
Carlos Lee
Roy Oswalt
Wandy Rodriguez
Hunter Pence
Michael Bourn
Jeff Keppinger
Kazuo Matsui
Tommy Manzella
Miguel Tejada (anywhere from $6 million to $11 million. The latter would actually be his fair market value at 3B if he replicated 90% of his offensive production from this year, assuming a cost of $4.5 million per WAR)
LaTroy Hawkins (anywhere from $4.5 million to $7 million to be our closer)
Bud Norris
Felipe Paulino
Brian Moehler
Yorman Bazardo
Sammy Gervacio
Alberto Arias
Chris Sampson
Wesley Wright
Tim Byrdak or some a near equivalent LOOGY
Humerto Quintero
Jason Castro
JR Towles or Brian Bogusevic
Rounding out the roster with relief pitchers that will have an average price tag of $1.25 million

This would be a young Astros team compared to their previous few versions, so there is of course the ability to infer hope from it because the projections for many of these players has a wide range of variance. But is that the kind of hope that we as Astros fans—especially most of the regulars here, who all have a far more sharply objective view of baseball—want claim? Can we even claim that as hope? I guess the answers to that are personal and subject to one's own preferences.

Unfortunately (or maybe fortunately) for you, the readers, I get to work out my thought process in front of you. For those who just want to move past this discussion, I'll do this after the jump.

If we have learned anything from the 2009 version of the Astros it is this: A seemingly stacked offense is not a good way to build a baseball team. The fact of the matter is, and will continue to be, that the core of our line up has skill set that is high slugging percentage relative to on-base percentage. This, as we now are so painfully aware of, does not an offense make. There's just no consistency in such a skill set and that fact was exacerbated by poor managerial strategy by the man at the helm of the offense, Cecil Cooper.

Even if the Astros front office decides to spare us the indignity of having Cecil Cooper continue to pull all the levers of the 2010 Astros, offense will not be our strong suit. This leaves us to the lesson we all learned in 2005: If you've got pitchers who pitch well, the team will perform well. As of right now, the only starting pitcher I put on the list above who I have confidence in is Wandy Rodriguez. I hope that Roy Oswalt will pitch well on a consistent basis in 2010, but his continued climb into his thirties, combined with his worrisome back issues, don't fill me with the confidence that the Wizard once inspired.

Dratyon McLane has already announced that payroll in 2010 will be lower than payroll in 2009, and has cited attendance this year as the motivation for this reduction. If payroll is scaled down to match in the loss in attendance revenues this year, than would place the Astros at somewhere within a million or two dollars of $90 million. That doesn't leave a lot of dough to fill out the bench and bullpen, while also buying the services of another top-tier pitcher to complement Roy and Wandy.

That leaves the likely candidates as Bud Norris, Feliepe Paulino, Yorman Bazardo, and Brian Moehler. However, it's hard to say that all aren't question marks in my mind. I doubt that our starting rotation will include more than two of the above to start the season, as I am sure there will be some manner of reclamation project scooped up by Ed Wade this winter. I also doubt that this unnamed pitcher will be more than a giant question mark in my mind as well. How can I be so confident that whatever Ed Wade pulls off the scrap heap will be a question mark? Just take a look at the options.

Bud Norris has flashed brilliance this season, but Wandy Rodriguez had a long and torturous journey to consistently being brilliant, so it's hard for me to place too much hope in Bud. Were Bud Norris to speed up his learning curve and provide legitimate number three services, then the Astros would have a strong rotation. Not 2005 strong, but strong enough to inspire confidence, and dare I say it, hope. Were Bazardo, Moehler, Wright (who'll be auditioned as a starter this spring, allegedly), and whoever is Ed Wade's reclamation project, to be relegated to the four and five slots, then they're imperfections and questions marks wouldn't matter as much. 2009 has been dismal mainly because 3/5 of the time there's no reason to expect good things from the guy taking the mound. At times, when injury has felled Wandy and Roy, there's almost no reason to hope for anything other than an offensive explosion to mask the deficiency in pitching.

So I've talked myself to this point: Should Bud Norris be an effective starting pitcher next year, I think that the 2010 Astros can be competitive. Do I have hope? There's a glimmer of it. Am I being unduly pessimistic? I'll leave that for you to decide. Have I missed/glossed over something? Probably. Again, tell me where I went wrong.

All around effort helps the Astros take the series: Pirates 2 - Astros 4

DyingQuail — Sun, 13 Sep 2009 04:51:47 -0000

More photos » by Dave Einsel - AP

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Brian Moehler had another solid outing, which continues to frustrate just about everyone who wanted to write him off at some point or another during that last two years. His line of 6IP, 2R (2ER), 4K, 3BB, 101 pitches (59 strikes), 13 GB, 3 FB, was a standard Moehler effort. With defense and offense both coming through for him, Moehler secured a win en route to the Astros clinching a series victory over the basement dwelling Pirates.

The win pulls the Astros within one game of .500 and thirteen wins away from meeting our Community Projection Project projection of 83 wins. That's a tall order, but realistically, if the Astros can finish at .500, I think many of us here will count that as a moral victory.

Before the game, Greg Lucas tweeted that were it not for the rain, the Astros would have played tonight's game with the roof open. With the NFL set to get underway in full tomorrow and the thermostat dropping, opportunities to revel in Astros victories are coming to a close. This is a sad, sad realization. Even mediocre-to-disapointing baseball is better to watch than no baseball.

Both Carlos Lee and Miguel Tejada went yard tonight. It's nice to see Tejada notch a HR just because I am beginning to sense that he'll be our regular 3B next year, so whatever power he has left in his bat, hopefully he can produce it for us at the hot corner next year.

via www.fangraphs.com

Pirates vs Astros coverage ; Pirates vs Astros recap ; Pirates vs Astros boxscore ; Bucs Dugout

Saturday Morning-ish Astros, etc. Round-Up

DyingQuail — Sat, 12 Sep 2009 15:43:34 -0000

More photos » by Dave Einsel - AP

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As most of you settle in for a long day of college pigskin with a desert of Astros baseball, here are some tasty treats to keep you satiated before Brian Moehler takes the mound:

By far the most interesting of the links, Richard Justice's run down of Astros notes provides two juicy morsles to consider as we head into the hot stove season:

The Astros probably will ask Wesley Wright to compete for a spot in the rotation next spring...

...However, it seems like the club will attempt to re-sign both Jose Valverde and LaTroy Hawkins.

For those of you still like me who were still waiting to hear the explanation for Roy Oswalt's poor performance on Thursday night, you can find two sides of the story here. Oswalt claims that it had nothing to do with is ailing back, whereas Cecil Cooper drops this bit of knowledge on us:

While Oswalt dodged questions about his back, Astros manager Cecil Cooper said that his ace did mention a "burning sensation" in his back, which may have impacted his throwing.

Speaking of Coop, his blood pressure would really appreciate the Astros not waiting until the final three outs to win baseball games. The story is pretty generic, but this quote made me laugh until my stomach hurt. It's a true "back in my day" perspective:

I don't remember us doing that too much of that celebrating, but today they do it all the time. But I think it's great. ... It's fun. I know the players like to do it, and I like to see the players show that kind of emotion.

In where the hell did that guy end up news, Eric Munson just earned a call up from AAA by the A's. I saw Munson catch in the AAA All-Star game, but had been too lazy to figure out where he was doing his best Crash Davis impersonation.
BtB's Daily Box Score column has quickly become one of my favorites to read just because I find myself thinking at the macro level of issues I usually take for granted. Yesterday's was about how we graphical represent data and it's worth the read and ponder.
If the Astros finish this season below .500, does that mean Drayton should lower beer prices? Well, the WSJ has investigated winning percentage and beer prices. Read it here and decide for yourself whether MMP beer is over priced.

Poll

The story I found most interesting was:

Wesley Wright to be considered as a starter and Valverde and Hawkins will be pursued

23 votes

Oswalt and Coop have a different story about his back and his botched start

7 votes

Granpa Coop tells us what he thinks

0 votes

Eric Munson is a major leaguer again

1 votes

BtB makes us think about graphs (nerd alert)

0 votes

The WSJ's findings on beer prices and franchise worthiness

9 votes

40 votes | Poll has closed

Wednesday Morning Astros, etc. Round Up

DyingQuail — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 14:01:40 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

Seriously, his intro-video is amazing.

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Today we'll lead off with what could possibly turn into the greatest pissing contest in the history of pissing contests (I exaggerate, but just a little):

Last night, Brian McTaggart debuted Roy Oswalt's own personal website via the twitter-sphere (is that a proper term?). In the early morning hours, Jose Valverde's manager/personal assistant/something debuted his own personal website via the twitter-sphere. Jose's kicks the crap out of Roy's on the basis of the most ridiculous intro-video—ever. I really can only hope that this kind of one-up-manship continues all offseason. My money is on Michael Bourn to crush the competition though. He or Hunter Pence (I'm valuing youth in this competition).
After the Astros threw away an opportunity, or dropped the ball, Cecil Cooper did have these kind words to say about Brian Moehler, who really did pitch better than the boxscore will tell us (I'll also vote yes on the should we bring him back for one more year question...it just needs to be as a 5th/6th starter...not our number three):

"That’s what I told him. I thought he deserved a better fate. I thought he threw the ball well. He hit his spots very well. He kept it down. He moved the ball around. He did a good job, a real good job."

Greg Lucas pens one of the most balanced and intelligent break downs (no pun intended) of just how screwed we are as a franchise. Thanks for having the stomach for this one, Greg.
If the inclusion of the Bloone's Farm picture in last night's game thread hadn't tipped you off, here it is concretely: Aaron Boone has made his return to MLB just five months after having open heart surgery.
The Unofficial Scorer checks in with the things the Astros should be taking a look at in this miserable month of meaningless baseball. Odds are only 15% of what Mr. Levine would like to see get seen.
Felipe Paulino gets another crack at proving himself as a starting pitcher tonight. This Astros.com piece features a quote from Dewey Robinson that agains credits a pitcher's demotion to Round Rock as helping him to finally put all the pieces together (Ed, are you not paying attention to these things?):

"It looks like his focus and concentration have really upgraded to a different level, and he's really making pitches in the two outings he's had since being recalled [from Triple-A Round Rock]," he said. "I've been encouraged with that. The stuff's been there. At this level, it's not what you're throwing so much as where you're throwing it, and that's going to be the key."

Recent call-up, Wilton Lopez, gets featured in BtB's New Arms of the Week.
USA Today checks in with some of the more intelligent guys in baseball to see how life is for them. Some familiar names are mentioned/quoted, but one of the most interesting things I took away from the article was this:

"In some ways, it can take a little pressure off," he says of having an alternative career path. "It doesn't mean you have less desire. But I think it helps you relax."

Jumping off a discussion of intelligence, and because I think this probably applies to baseball's conventional wisdom: a little something from This Is Indexed.
I'll be 97.5 The Ticket this afternoon with Fred and Matt at 1:50PM. If the Astros totally blowing it, you can just listen to the three of us rant about it.
Finally, as a PSA, please, please, please take a few moments out of the procrastination time you're utilizing to read this and take Tango's Fan Scouting Survey.