SB Nation - Craig Biggio

Wednesday Astros, etc Round Up

HighLeveragePerformer — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 11:00:29 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

If anyone has a thing for 67 year old chubby managers of one time NL championship teams, then you're in luck! The Astros' top choice for their managerial position may Jim Fregosi. Richard Justice is confident that Ed Wade, who made decisions in Philly to hire both Terry Francona and Charlie Manuel, will choose the right man to take the helm of the SS Astro.

Lest a pity party inadvertently break out for Cecil Cooper, injury news concerning Roy Oswalt and Alberto Arias should remind us of one reason why Coop was fired. Oswalt will head to Dallas to seek a second opinion from a specialist in bulging disks, while Alberto Arias will undergo arthroscopic surgery on his right knee. Arias, thankfully, should be ready to pitch in the Dominican Winter League, while Oswalt hopes to avoid surgery at all costs. A quote of Oswalt's I've read before strikes me as sorta scary:

...I don’t want to lose feeling in my leg

Yikes. Why he was asked to continue pitching even after he left a start early in August against Chicago, I do not know. As for Alberto, Coop made mince meat out of him after Chris Sampson was rendered useless after overuse. It's a downright irresponsible legacy he left, these injuries. True, he wasn't given the best starters in baseball, but when in doubt, he would more often than not make the walk from the dugout to the mound to pull a guy, rather than leave him in to take one for the team. I do not know if Alberto Arias' injuries are a direct result of his usage this season, but it certainly could not have helped. He is an ex-starter, and he actually pitched more innings in 2008 than in 2009. Cooper using him too frequently in back to back games is one area that may have hurt Alberto in the long run.

Beyond the Boxscore has a nice article on managerial longevity and similar subjects. Quality stuff as usual.

For those who like to play Monday Morning Quarterback...the Astros (like clack noted last week) could have drafted Derek Jeter in 1992 instead of Phil Nevin. A late 1990s double play combination of Derek Jeter and Craig Biggio probably would have made my 13 year old head explode with excitement, so maybe it's a good thing we used the likes of Ricky Gutierrez and Tim Bogar...

Speaking of Bogar, we've had a few nights to sleep on the firing of Cecil Cooper, and more importantly, to ponder the options to replace Coop. In light of that, after weighing the facts, pros and cons of the names thrown out there, who would you like to be the next manager of the Houston Astros?

Poll

Who should be the next manager of the Astros?

Jim Fregosi

5 votes

Tim Bogar

15 votes

Al Pedrique

4 votes

Jeff Bagwell

17 votes

Manny Acta

32 votes

Craig Biggio

8 votes

Brad Ausmus

39 votes

Bobby Cox

14 votes

Dave Clark

4 votes

Someone Else

33 votes

171 votes | Poll has closed

Tuesday Morning Links

Eli Greenspan — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 14:40:37 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Chiu - AP

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A handful of links for you guys this morning. Enjoy:

In the hours after the Astros fired Cecil Cooper, someone tossed around the idea of making a blockbuster move: bringing in a former Astro to appease Astros fans, frustrated with recent front office moves. Names like Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, and even Dodgers catcher Brad Ausmus were tossed around. The Astros need a familiar face, an experienced coach or manager, if they want to start to turn things around.
The White Sox may try to unload first baseman Paul Konerko this offseason. Konerko has a full no-trade clause, but said he would be willing to waive it for the right deal. Konerko is hitting .281 this season with 27 home runs, and a team in need of a DH or first baseman would benefit from those kind of numbers. Konerko will make 12 million dollars in 2010, so the White Sox would have to absorb some of that if they want to entice a team like the Athletics. The Orioles, Pirates, and Mets are also options.
Diamondbacks catcher Chris Snyder will undergo back surgery Wednesday, but is expected to be ready for Spring Training. There was some speculation that the Dbacks would try to move Snyder this offseason to make way for Miguel Montero, who is hitting an impressive .295 with 14 home runs. They will likely have to wait now.
Gary Sheffield is coming back for one more year, and is going to spend this offseason getting in the best shape of his recent career. He hopes to play in at least 150 games. If the Mets don't resign him, then he hopes to hear from the Marlins, Rays, Astros, or Rangers. I'm sure he'd bite at any other opportunity that came his way.
Twins third baseman Joe Crede is set to undergo his third back surgery, another frustrating bump in the road for him. Crede wants to continue playing, hopefully for the Twins next season, but doesn't seem to open to more back surgeries beyond his upcoming one. Crede hit .255 with 15 homeruns, but could he nearing the end of his career if he can't stay healthy?

Houston Astros 2009 Payroll Breakdown and Value Over Contract - Graph of the Day

Justin Bopp — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 13:00:17 -0000

(click to enlarge)

Analytical and emotional breakdown after the jump.

From MLB.com article on Michael Bourn:

Where that turnaround is most evident is when there are runners in scoring position. Bourn is hitting .383 (36-for-94) with runners in scoring position, which places him second in the National League and fourth on the Astros' all-time chart, behind Jose Cruz (.389 in 1986), Craig Biggio (.388 in 2001) and Kevin Bass (.386 in 1994).

There comes a few times in the game of advanced (or even just garden variety reasonable) baseball analysis, when you sort of forget where the mindset of the average pundit is, and then you read this, and you remember: this is what you’re up against. An article praising (rightfully) Michael Bourn’s career growth in 2009 specifically mentions that the most evident gain is in batting average with runners in scoring position. For a leadoff hitter. In the National League.

If the thought process behind building the Houston Astros was in any way similar to this nugget, it’s pretty easy to understand why they’re a mess. The minor league system is barren, the talent is overpaid and old and I’m pretty sure even the ticket takers have a guaranteed contract with a no-trade clause. Just take a look at the Astros players playing with that benefit:

1B / OF Lance Berkman – 14.5 million per through 2010, full no trade clause, 2011 club option at 15 million
SP Roy Oswalt – Escalating salary (14 million in 2009) through 2011 (16 million), full no trade clause, 2012 club option at 16 million (2 million buyout)
LF Carlos Lee – 18.5 million annually through 2012, full no trade clause (expires after 2010)
2B Kaz Matsui – 5 million annually through 2010, limited no trade clause

The average age of these four players? 32.75. The total projected value of these 4 in 2009? 39.51 million dollars. Their salaries? 52 million. Only Matsui gets off the hook after next year, and he’s the littlest fish in this pond, investment-wise. Every single other one of these guys is going to hang around. Carlos Lee’s contract is probably unmovable now, and by the time 2010 ends, it almost certainly will be.

I don’t know how deep the Astros pockets can possibly be, but if they don’t want to double their payroll for 2010, they almost certainly can’t win An inflexible, aging payroll, no ability to sell for talent to rebuild, and no cheap in-house replacements is basically a perfect storm of poor roster building. There are pretty good indications from Houston that the fanbase and ownership understand this, and won’t hold Ed Wade responsible for this mess, but are they going to be patient enough for what is probably an 8 year rebuild? I hope hometown favorite (and likely rebound candidate) Lance Berkman is enough to keep them sated in the meantime.

Well, there is one possibility for easing the financial burden. Carlos Lee has a nominal weight clause in his contract. Perhaps the most prudent immediate use of funds by Mr. Wade would be to give his left fielder an unlimited line of credit at Luby’s.

Article, Walter Fulbright; Charts, Justin Bopp

Monday Morning Astros, etc Round Up

HighLeveragePerformer — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 11:00:18 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

It's gotten to the point where we're posting photos of ex players.

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After the New York Times levied pitch tipping allegations against Miguel Tejada, Tejada saw fit to respond yesterday:

"I've never tipped pitches," Tejada told MLB.com before he was given a rare off-day from the starting lineup on Sunday as the Astros closed their three-game series at Chase Field. "I love this game and that's not the way I play it. I'm a proud player. I would never do such a thing. It's tough to get a hit. And for me to tip pitches to anybody, that's crazy. I play for my team."

From what I can tell, it seems questionable that he was knowingly tipping other team's hitters as to what pitch was about to be thrown, despite former teammate Johnny Damon's assertions that "it seemed like all the Dominican guys were killing us." Sorry, but I don't really trust Damon's reflections on a particular nationalities' success against his team 8 years ago.

JJO raises the same point that clack did weeks ago- have Bud Norris's IP total caught up to him? Dewey Robinson seems to think that Norris is doing fine, and that skipping him in his next start will do him good. As far as September call ups are concerned, Round Rock pitcher Billy Sadler will get a call up once the RR season is through. Anyone with information on him is welcome to chime in. Wes Wright will also join the Astros in Chicago....also,

Time to welcome some vets, folks. Doug Brocail and Aaron Boone will be added to the major league roster on Tuesday. Chris Sampson, Tommy Manzella and JR Towles are other possibilities to be added to the club in September. Chris Johnson, for those who were wondering, isn't on the 40 man roster and therefore isn't eligible to be called up.

First Jeff Bagwell gets in the news after RJ touts him as next Astros' manager, then Beyond the Boxscore does a post on the top 14 first basemen of all time in terms of WAR, and Bags is #6 on the list:

He had excellent power (perhaps not completely appreciated due to his home park) and an exceptionally good batting eye (149 walks in 1999), which helped him post a career OBP of 0.408. He also had excellent speed for a second baseman, topping 30 steals twice, and was a fine defender throughout most of his career. He led the league in runs scored three times, and won the MVP in the strike-shorted 1994 season with a crazy 0.368/0.451/0.750 season (that's 39 home runs and 9 WAR in 110 games, folks)...He becomes eligible for the Hall of Fame in 2010. I have a hard time reading the rest of the mainstream media, but I suspect that his teammate Craig Biggio will have an easier time than Bagwell despite having the weaker, albeit longer career. Lack of association with steriods may help both of them given the current backlash against suspected users.

The group of players ahead of Bagwell, Gehrig, Cap Anson, Jimmie Foxx, Roger Connor and Dan Brouthers, all had careers that were finished before WWII. Is Jeff the greatest 1B of the post WWII generation? At least by one measure, yes. (At least until Albert finishes up, that is). Frank Thomas was not a part of the list, as he was considered to be a DH. Before Bags had to exit the game, their stats were remarkably similar...as were their birthdays!

Elias released its most recent classifications of players. Astros' free agents that are either classified as A or B:

Miguel Tejada, B

Jose Valverde, A

LaTroy Hawkins, A

Doug Brocail, B

Tim Byrdak, B

Thursday Morning Astros, etc Round Up

HighLeveragePerformer — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 11:00:18 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

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Miguel Tejada has now been around long enough to have been a part of two golden ages of short stops.

As the August 17 signing deadline for draft picks approaches, Baseball Prospectus is featuring a two part installment on the draft and what can be done to fix it. As it stands, there are still 19 first round picks who are unsigned. The slotting system is partially to blame and the strength of the player's union stands in the way of any meaningful change. One interesting quote from an unnamed scout about the draft should hit home with Astros' fans

The good thing about baseball is that the system itself rewards preparation and intelligence and scouting, and punishes those who don't do a good job.

Joba Chamberlain is a tough guy to figure out:

In the Bizarro World that Joba Chamberlain inhabits, the better he pitches, the fewer times he'll get the ball, while the worse he pitches, the more starts he'll get between now and the finish line.

Come again?

TangoTiger looks at whether Pitcher Abuse Points actually work in determining the risk associated with pitch counts and starting pitchers. He basically shows that he can't prove that it does, and that people put too much stock into this theory.

I think it's safe to say that we have our fair share of free time on our hands. Do you ever think you'll have enough time to figure out the Astros' record based on the particular uniform worn? One guy did. It's amazing how little we wear our "primary" road unis: the grey uniform with black cap. I guess Drayton likes the red unis the most.

If Dustin Pedroia was the 2008 MVP, then Aaron Hill should be in the running this season. Oh, what's that? Pedroia plays for RedSawx Nation and Hill doesn't? Oh, well in that case. Yea, yea- I know Boston was a relevant team last season and the Jays are a middling club this season...but still.

***Trivia Question****:

I was listening to Mike and Mike in the Morning yesterday, and Jason Stark posed the following trivia question to the guys:

Can you name the six active major leaguers who have nine or more career seasons of 100+ RBI?

[**DQ Insert**]

Richard Justice checks in with Drayton McLane to see what this season's poor attendence holds for the 2010 Astros. What found isn't encouraging for anyone hoping for a splashy free agent signing:

Drayton won't say what his payroll will be in 2010, emphasizing only that the Astros likely will get younger and have a lower payroll. Carlos Lee, Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt are signed for a combined $48.5 million in 2010, and Hunter Pence and Wandy Rodriguez are going to get nice raises in arbitration. Jose Valverde and Miguel Tejada could be allowed to depart via free agency, and Bud Norris, Jason Castro, Chris Johnson and Tommy Manzella could be on the opening day roster

With Chris Johnson showing little to actually no improvement in plate discipline at AAA this year and my inherient skepticism at Manzella's defensive ability at SS, I'm a little worried.

Miguel Tejada is apparently a tough cookie to bench. His argument is a valid one given that my inquiry into what an off day could do for Tejada at the plate revealed in December (that it really only helps his SLG); maybe he doesn't need one, provided the hits keep coming for Miggy. The article also notes that he's on pace to become the first Astro to collect 200 hits since Craig Biggio did it in 1998. There's also more explanation on Wesley Wright's trip to the DL. Note to Drayton: Please, please evaluate Coop's ability to manage his relief pitchers this year when considering whether or not to continue allowing him to manage the Astros.

Darin Erstad sings the praises of Michael Bourn's defense in this piece from Brian McTaggart. I was struck by Erstad's note that:

[H]ow Bourn is able to catch balls that are hit over his head. "In my opinion, that's the hardest ball to make a play," Erstad said. "He's been doing it with ease. Probably the biggest thing is his ability to throw out runners at home. You don't see guys get thrown out from center field very often. That is not an easy throw, and there are very few guys that can do that. Jim Edmonds and Andruw Jones are two that could."

Erstad's evaluation of Bourn's defensive ability is consistent with what has previously been hashed out here at TCB. This discussion even took place over at BtB recently, where it was concluded that yes, Bourn is better than his 2009 UZR would indicate.

With one in the win column last night, Richard Justice concurs with my opinion that our Vitamin Puma deficiency was causing our skid and is starting the bandwagon back up again. He's even going as far to assert his belief that the Astros could still hit the 90 win mark that Coop predicted.

Is the Craig Biggio the 35th Greatest Player Ever?

Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) — Thu, 23 Jul 2009 10:00:09 -0000

I have been doing some work on Negro League history and was looking at the all time rankings in the last Bill James's Historical Abstract. I saw Craig Biggio ranked as the 35th greatest player of all time using his formula of peak years, total production and other intangibles. Bill gives an explanation of his reasoning for having Craig so high, but I just can't buy it even though the publication is dated a bit.

The two hitters above and below him on Bill's list were Arky Vaughan, Pete Rose, Eddie Matthews and Carl Yastrzenski. Off the top of my head, I would consider the former 3 much better than Biggio and after doing a little reading Arky Vaughan was a great shortstop that ended up giving up the the second half of his career to the military for WWII. Here is the 5 batters with there Bill James ranking, WAR (from Rally's Database) and Win Share rankings and lifetime totals [Bill James ranking includes pitchers, but the WAR and WS values are for only batters].

Bill James Top 100	Name	WAR Rank	WAR	Win Shares Rank	Win Shares
33	Pete Rose	43	75.3	12	540
34	Eddie Mathews	21	98.3	26	435
35	Craig Biggio	74	66.2	25	437
37	Carl Yastrzemski	28	88.7	18	490
39	Arky Vaughan	42	75.6	67	357

It can be seen that Bill's rankings are based on his win shares (which reward long term consistency, vice above average/replacement production). Looking at the WAR values though, Biggio is not within 9 WAR of any of the other players and there are 52 hitters between him and Mathews. Biggio was a good player, but he is not the same caliber player as these four. The compatibles in the WAR list (Ron Santo,Gary Carter, Rafeal Palmeiro and Jim Thome) seem to me to be a better fit.

Of course, what would an article comparing players at Beyond the Box Score be without a WAR comparison graph.

Yankees Draft 2009: Thinking About Needs

jscape2000 — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 19:00:26 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

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The Yankees have produced more from their recent drafts than since the dawn of the '90s dynasty. Still, they face constant comparision to the Red Sox, who have clearly gotten more from their draft strategies. But on the whole, since Brian Cashman inserted himself into the drafting process in 2006, the Yankees have transformed their farm system by drafting risky, paying far overslot, and focusing on high upside pitching.

But is that the right approach going forward?

The Yankees still seem loaded with good pitching prospects. John Sickles' 2009 top 20 prospects (actually 21) includes 14 righties and 3 lefties. For point of comparission, the Tampa Bay Rays had 12 pitchers total; the Baltimore Orioles had 10 pitchers ranked; the Toronto Blue Jays and the Boston Red Sox had 9. I didn't search every system, but I would expect 17 out of 21 to be the highest percentage of pitchers in the majors.

The strategy has made sense in a variety of ways.

With the infield locked down for the forseeable future, drafting bats doesn't seem to have the high reward of drafting pitchers. There seems to be at least one elite bat available every offseason, and with the Yanks' resources, they are always in the discussion for elite bats.

Conversely, there are almost never pitchers in their primes available. CC Sabathia was the first legitimate ace under 30 available since Billy Beane traded off Mulder and Hudson. Furthermore, pitchers are reroutable in a way that fielders are not. Imagine a team developed 10 average starters symotaneously; that's a blessing. 10 average middle infielders on the other hand (see 2006 Blue Jays), that's a logjam. A pitcher can easily move from the rotation to the bullpen, and he may often perform better there, but a second baseman can't become a center fielder (unless he's Craig Biggio).

So it has made sense for the Yankees to take pitchers with their picks. Fragile or inconsistent pitchers with great potential can often be had in the late rounds where the Yanks have their chance. But there are bats to be had. The 2005 draft drew a lot of attention to the top spots- Justin Upton, Alex Gordon, Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Braun, Troy Tulowitzki, and Cameron Maybin were all top 10 draftees. But in the third round there were still MLB contributors to be had: Taylor Teagarden and Brett Gardner. Obviously, neither of these guys are superstars of the caliber of the top 10, but while they are young and cost controlled they are pieces that can be used to build a successful roster. Every dollar saved on the bench is a dollar that can be used elsewhere.

Another part of the conundrum is the scouts. If you have scouts who have proven themselves to be strong evaluators of pitchers but mediocre evaluators of hitters, then you have to play to your strengths.

I want the Yankees to take a draft of hitters, to apply that pro-risk philosophy to the fielders' side of the ball. But the truth is, for the Yankees, they can only take the best talent on the board when their number is called.

It's always interesting to see the draft day philosphy. With their fewest number of draft picks available in a long time, will the Yanks stick to their draft low and overpay pattern of the last several years? The Yankees only have early picks because they failed to sign last year's 1st and 2nd rounders; this means they get nothing if they fail again this year, so expect them to draft someone they're sure they can sign. Without a supplimental round, I also expect the Yanks to play a little more cautiously in terms of drafting someone who they are sure can make it to the majors. With Brackman, Betances, et al toiling in the minors, I expect to see a fast mover from the early rounds this year. An Ian Kennedy or David Robertson who can hustle up the latter, so the front office can point to a quick success story.

All Is Not Wells: Bullpen Implosion Ruins Randy's Gem, Cubs Lose 6-5 In 12

Al — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 13:00:13 -0000

More photos » by John Bazemore - AP

Randy, you deserved better.

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Anyone who has been a Cubs fan as long as I have has seen some losses we'd rather forget. Last night's ugly 6-5 Cubs defeat at the hands of the Braves zoomed right up to the top of the list of horrible games that will stick in our minds for a long time. We can only hope that the players shake it off and come back and win tonight.

The bullpen meltdown ruined Randy Wells' fifth major league start -- at first, it appeared that Wells, like Kerry Wood 11 years ago in his fifth ML start, might put his name in the record books. He took a no-hitter into the seventh inning before Chipper Jones slapped a no-doubt-about it single to left with two out; Garret Anderson ruined Wells' bid for a shutout with a home run leading off the 8th, but those were the only two hits Wells allowed. When Derrek Lee made his first error of the season dropping a subsequent throw from Ryan Theriot, Wells was lifted for Carlos Marmol. Marmol's been off and on this year, and last night was definitely "off". Marmol's control was poor -- only 11 strikes in 23 pitches, and Wells was charged with a second run, unearned, when Marmol issued a bases-loaded walk, which made the score 5-2. A sac fly made it 5-3, still a very winnable game. But then Kevin Gregg came in and allowed Jeff Francoeur -- who Braves fans have nearly given up on -- to hit a game-tying, two-run homer. The Cubs had their chances in extra innings, especially in the 10th when Kosuke Fukudome doubled with two out, but the bullpen kept putting too many on base and finally, Chipper Jones sent Braves fans home happy with a game-winning single in the 12th.

Before some final analysis of this giveaway, since I am by nature a positive person, let's look at some of the good things about this game. Wells threw 83 pitches and had 58 strikes. Now think about that for a minute. In recent years some Cubs pitchers haven't gotten out of the fifth inning without throwing that many pitches. He walked no one and before Jones' single, the only baserunner had been Yunel Escobar, who was hit by a Wells pitch and then erased on a double play. I was especially pleased to see Derrek Lee put up two extra-base hits, a smash double down the line driving in one run, and his sixth homer of the season in the top of the eighth. Alfonso Soriano, who almost always gets started off by opposing pitchers with a fastball, took a 68-MPH curveball from Kenshin Kawakami for strike one, but fought Kawakami off and wound up with a leadoff home run, the 54th of his career, which put him past Craig Biggio into second place behind the all-time leader, Rickey Henderson, who hit 81 of them. It was also Soriano's first HR in 12 games; maybe this is the start of one of his hot streaks.

OK, done with the good stuff -- and beyond losing the game, the Cubs may have again lost Milton Bradley to injury. He has a right calf strain after trying to beat out an infield hit and is officially "day-to-day", though that was his status after the April injury in Milwaukee, and he wound up out for more than two weeks. To which I'm going to say tonight: I TOLD YOU SO. Forget about Bradley's outbursts -- the thing I was most worried about in this signing was his constant time out of the lineup. Who knows how bad this injury is going to be, and fortunately Reed Johnson is hot right now and so he'll play CF while Kosuke Fukudome (who was 1-for-3 against his former Chunichi Dragons teammate Kawakami) shifts over to RF. At this rate, Bradley won't make the incentives this season that would guarantee the contract for its third year, so the Cubs' future financial exposure will be trimmed.

Some of you thought the Cubs should have signed Raul Ibanez. No one could have predicted how well he'd do so far this year, but that'd be better than the half-time play of Bradley. And even Adam Dunn would have been better -- bad as he might have been in right field, at least he has been on the field for all of Washington's games this year and has played 152 or more games five straight years and six of the last seven. At this rate we'll be lucky if Bradley plays 152 games combined between this year and next. (Not to mention that Dunn is 3rd in the NL in HR, 4th in RBI, 3rd in walks, and 9th in SLG and OPS.) Dunn would have made Joey Gathright useful, as Gathright could have played defensive replacement virtually every day for the last couple of innings.

There's enough blame to go around for last night. Some may blame Lou, but he's only using the players Jim Hendry got him. Come to think of it, that might be Lou's fault, since a lot of the changes were apparently made at his behest. The bullpen, in particular, was "fixed" badly. It's not too late to fix some of the fixes, either. Like the players, we as fans need to shake it off; there's another game tonight -- and the Cubs remain only four games out of first place (and if you're keeping track this early, four games out of the wild card, too).

Final note: I received multiple email complaints about behavior in the game threads last night. In the heat of discussing a tough game like last night's, I understand people can get frustrated and upset. Profanity and personal attacks will not be tolerated.

Return of the Son of the Revisitation of the Myth of the RBI Guy: Careers Overrated by RBI Totals

devil_fingers — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 17:29:46 -0000

Okay, okay, you probably figured we were done with this. And we are. Really. After this. To recap: First, taking a clue from a piece by Jonah Keri, I looked at the most overrated individual seasons since 1972 when judged by their RBI. Last week, I used some of the more recent "advanced stats" (I hate that term, for some reason), to look and see if perhaps the "RBI Guys" had a special knack for situational hitting. In both cases, we found that the real secret to getting to 90 or 100 RBIs in a season doesn't appear to lie in any particular skill, but instead in being in the right spot in the lineup at the right time. I thought I was done with this thing, but then Sky Kalkman of Beyond the Box Score fame asked if I had any careers numbers. With that in mind, as an epilogue, let's take last look (for a while, anyway) at the topic by examining a list of players whose careers were overrated by their RBI numbers. If you're sick of this, blame Sky. If not, then credit me.

For this project, I again used the custom linear weights scripts I used in my earlier posts (see the first post for more details). To narrow down the database query so that it wouldn't take forever to calculate and also becaue the linear weights are closer together since the mid-1950s, I restricted myself to summing up seasons after 1954. So if a player's career began before 1955, the RBI and Runs Created totals only include those seasons 1955-.

Without any further ado, HERE IS THE GOOGLE SPREADSHEET.

What Do These Numbers Mean, Again?

I'll keep this brief, since most of this material is covered in the previous posts on this topic. The simple explanation (and taking into considerations some suggestions from this thread), is that I've taken each player individual career RBI and divided them by this total runs created. The higher the ratio of RBI:Runs Created is, the more his RBI overstate his actual offensive production (probably due to being in the middle of the lineup, etc). So the players at the "top" of the rankings are the most overrated by their RBI. For the sake of interest, I restricted the search and made two lists, one based on players with 1000 or more RBI, and another for players with 500 or more RBI.

Quickly revisiting some definitions:

wOBA (Weighted On-Base Average) is simply the linear weights a players offensive contribution per plate appearanec expressed as a rate stat set to an on-base percentage scale so that one can get a quick read of a player's contribution. This is the players career average 1955-, but the weights I derived using Tom Tango's SQL (adapted by Colin Wyers) adjusts the weights each year for the particular run environment -- very cool stuff. This number is not park adjusted.
wRAA (I called this BRAA in earlier posts) is "wOBA Runs Above Average"). Using the formulae posted in earlier articles, this is the linear weights runs above/below average the player created over his career. This number is park-adjusted using terpsfans' park factors. This is not directly involved in the RBI calculations, but is there to give an a better idea of how good or bad a player was with respect to his particular run environment during his career. wWAA is wRAA converted to a wins scale based on the runs-to-wins conversion for each individual league and season, further specifying the player's relation to his run environment
wRC is wOBA Runs Created. Rather than runs above or below average, this figure is the "absolute" number of runs a player created based on the custom wOBA caculations during his career. This is the figure used in the key "ranking" stat for this project:
RBIperwRC is the key stat as explained above: his career RBI numbers divided by his absolute runs created. The higher the ratio of RBI:Runs Created is, the more his RBI overstate his actual offensive production (probably due to being in the middle of the lineup, etc). So the players at the "top" of the rankings are the most overrated by their RBI.

With the boring stuff out of the way, let's take a look at the lists.

The 1000 RBI Guys

We being with a huge upset here. Sky thought my SQL might be broken when he saw an earlier version. How could Joe Carter not come in first? As it is, he "only" ended up at #4, although I'm sure that won't make Phillies fans feel much better.

Ruben Sierra at number 1? Who knew? Of You look at the guy's numbers and you say, "well, he was above average for his career." Still, a .332 wOBA for his career? That's barely better than Royals' catcher John Buck has at the moment (.331). Hanging around for 20 seasons can help a guy out. David Kingman makes #2 on the 1,000+ list. I hope I don't get a rat in the mail. Can they be emailed? The relatively anonymous Tommy Davis comes in at #3

If Joe Carter fans think "only" being #4 on this list somehow vindicates their man, perhaps they should check the man right at #5: Gary Gaetti, Ageless Wonder and Object of Devotion. Here's a guy who has almost the same wRCperRBi as Joe Carter, yet hit more than 20 runs below average for his career. It's fitting that George Bell is also in the top 20, as well as George Foster. Jose Canseco, Tino Martinez, B. J. Surhoff, Carlos Lee, and Harold Baines rounding out the Top 25 of a list of Overrated RBI guys? I don't know about Jose, but I sure feel Vindicated.

It's is at least as instructive to look at the "bottom" of the list -- the players most underrated by their RBI numbers. RIcky Henderson is at the bottom. Enough, said, probably. Wade Boggs right in above him. How about this: third from the bottom MIckey Mantle. ZOMG JOE CARTER >>>>> THE MICK.!!!!!1111ONE1 Pete Rose... Wow, I can't believe I came up a list which shows Pete Rose as underrated... I mean, one not composed by Pete Rose himself (yes, I know he Craig Biggio, the former object of Bill James' affection, is also on here. Eddie Matthews, Rod Carew... Its very interesting to see guys like Bonds, Mantle, Matthews, etc. on this list because they did hit in the middle of the order (and all of these guys have over 1000 RBI, remember), so it might be more accurate to say that they "outhit" their RBI. Lots of stuff to see here. Derek Jeter, underrated?

The 500 RBI Guys

As you might expect, this is a much longer list. It's interesting to see more active players in and about. Bengie Molina slides in at #8. Hammerin' Jose Guillen #31 out of 542. As for the underrated active guys, Jason Kendall's presence gave me pause, but it's easy to forget, given his present state, what a good OBP guy he was when he was younger. Jimmy Rollins at #500 out o#542 -- another underrated leadoff guy, and we're not even talking about his excellent defense yet. The eternally underrated Tim Raines is #525 out of #542 -- he just missed being on 1000 RBI list by 20.

Just one final note -- Stan Musial is at the bottom of the list (remember this is only 1955- numbers). Wow. And really, my whole point about RBI could have been made by simply making this list and noting that Stan Musial is at the "bottom," and my man Tony Batista is at the top.

Cubs Win 4-2, And That Was Just The Home Run Count; Cubs Also Win Game 6-4

Al — Thu, 14 May 2009 12:57:55 -0000

More photos » by Jim Prisching - AP

That looks like snow, but instead was a heavy downpour.

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If you are younger than, say, about 40 and have often wondered what some of those wacky Wrigley Field games in the 1970's were like when the score was 18-12, last night's entertaining 6-4, rain-shortened Cubs win over the Padres gave you a little taste of it.

Sure, neither team scored ten runs, but the six home runs hit in seven and a half innings before a ferocious thunderstorm ended play actually seemed as if it might be more when the game began; three home runs were hit in the first inning alone, with the wind officially blowing out at 14 MPH.

I can tell you that wind was far stronger than 14 MPH; during the last couple of rain events that finally got so strong that they had to hold up play for good, it was too strong to even hold up my umbrella. As noted in this FanPost from section229beer, they sent all the seat vendors home at 5:30 due to the threat of bad weather (which would have forced a Thursday doubleheader -- you would have owed me another Super Big Gulp, Jessica). I did spot at least two who stuck around, carrying the tall sticks with bags of cotton candy and kettle corn on them.

At game time it wasn't even raining -- but after Ted Lilly did his usual jog around the warning track before his bullpen warmup, he jogged back to the dugout area and the field was covered until about 7:30, for a first pitch that finally occurred at 7:40. In another "didn't we see this game last night?" occurrence, Adrian Gonzalez again gave San Diego a 2-0 lead with a first-inning homer. Unlike the previous night, though, this homer was definitely wind-aided; it would have been a routine fly ball on most days.

Not so for Alfonso Soriano's 53rd career leadoff homer (tying him with Craig Biggio for 2nd all-time) in the last of the first -- that wound up on Waveland with two of the regular ballhawks (not Ken, though) in hot pursuit. Ryan Theriot followed with his fifth homer of the year (and fifth this month, tying him for the major league lead in that category with half the month remaining). I was surprised to learn two things about that event from the cubs.com game recap:

It wasn't Theriot's first career two-homer game; he also did it on September 17, 2006.
The last time the first two Cubs in the lineup homered in the first inning was April 27, 2000, when Eric Young and Ricky Gutierrez did it in Houston.

Fun stuff. Anyway, Lilly, despite the wind, gave up only one more homer, again to Gonzalez in the sixth -- no shame there, Gonzalez, who is now tied for the major league lead with 13 homers, is San Diego's one legitimate star hitter. Ted had excellent command and struck out seven while issuing no walks, and left to a standing ovation with one out in the seventh. Angel Guzman, slowly becoming a polished setup man, finished the seventh and Carlos Marmol, though a bit shaky again with two walks as rain began to fall, allowed a run on a weird play when pinch-hitter Jody Gerut singled with runners on first and second. A run scored, but Brian Giles was caught afterward in a rundown, and then the skies unleashed a downpour. The game was finally called around 11:10, by which time most in the stands, myself included, were long gone. Kevin Gregg had started to loosen up in anticipation of coming into a ninth inning that was never played; because of the rain, Marmol wound up with his third save of the year.

It was nice to see Geovany Soto hit his first homer of the year; he also singled and is starting to hit the ball with more authority. Derrek Lee, meanwhile, made a couple of nice plays in the field, but again looked lost at the plate. He could use a day off, in my opinion. The Cubs could go into a first-place tie today if they win and the Brewers and Cardinals lose (they would then be 20-14, tied with the Reds, who have the day off).

At this writing the sun is shining and it's supposed to be around 68 degrees this afternoon with lighter winds. Let's sweep this series. The pregame thread will post at 11:30 am CDT.