SB Nation - Humberto Quintero

Roster Breakdown: The Infield

davoag — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 18:40:35 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

This process took a little longer than I expected. In part two of my review of the roster, I looked at every infielders' (including catchers) statistics and make some notes about last season and their future. Not necessarily scientific, but there is some interesting information in here. Friday should see part three, a look at the outfield. Till then, let's see what happened with the first half of the roster...

Lance Berkman, 1B

2009 Season Stats: 562 PA, .274/.399/.509, 31 doubles, 1 triple, 25 HR, 73 runs, 80 RBIs, 7 of 11 stolen bases, 98 strikeouts, 140 OPS+

WAR: 3.0

UZR: -4.5

VORP: 34.9

Notes: Two points to consider about Berkman's season. First, his April and August splits were horrible. His slow start and power vacuum in August led to the perception that his season was a disappointment. Still, though he managed just 12 hits in April, he also walked 17 times and hit five home runs. In August, he hit zero home runs but had an OBP over .400. This also leads into the second point: Berkman is aging, but his power drop over the past three seasons is in part due to an overall power outage in the National League. The Big Puma saw his home run total fall 26 percent over the past three seasons while his extra-base hits have fallen 5 percent. That's almost exactly the same percentage that the NL extra-base hit total dropped over the same time period (5.6%). The NL home run total dropped 8.2 percent, but I'm guessing Berkman's drop in homers is beginning to be due to age. Still, if he hits 30 home runs in the next year or two with 50+ XBH, I'm guessing the Astros will be happy.

Kazuo Matsui, 2B

2009 Season Stats: 533 PA, .250/.302/.357, 20 doubles, 2 triples, 9 HR, 56 runs, 46 RBIs, 19 of 22 stolen bases, 85 strikeouts, 75 OPS+

WAR: 0.5

UZR: -1.0

VORP: 0.4

Notes: I'll be up front: I don't care for Matsui. He's overpaid, he's injured too often and he doesn't get on base enough to bat high in the order. That's just my personal preference, but I wanted to get that out in the open in the interests of being objective. Matsui's line is down quite a bit from 2008 but combine the past two seasons and its almost exactly in line with his career line of .271/.325/.387. His Runs Created totals of 64 in 2007, 61 in 2008 and 56 in 2009 have been very consistent, but his BABiP was 40 points lower in 2009 at .285 than the previous season. Add to that a good stolen base rate of 85% over his career and Matsui does have his uses. The problem is, he's a No. 7 hitter, not a leadoff guy. Matsui's numbers should bounce back some in 2010, but don't bet on another .350 OBP.

Miguel Tejada, SS

2009 Season Stats: 673 PA, .313/.340/.455, 46 doubles, 1 triple, 14 HR, 83 runs, 86 RBIs, 5 of 7 stolen bases, 48 strikeouts, 110 OPS+

WAR: 2.6

UZR: -8.3

VORP: 43.7

Notes: Tejada had the highest VORP of any player on the Astros roster last season, for good reason. Though his OBP wasn't terribly high, he did hit a ton of doubles and actually had more extra-base hits than Berkman. In fact, Tejada led the National League in doubles in 2009. Tejada also struck out just 48 times, which was his lowest total since his 104 plate appearances in 1997. Of course, the flip side of that is it was also his lowest walk total since 1997, too. Tejada's high batting average was due in part because he had his highest BABiP since 2006, 20 points higher than his career BABiP of .298. Tejada once again led the National League in grounding into double plays and put up his highest season totals since 2006 in plate appearances, RBIs, hits and sacrifice flies. I'm not sure if this was the most successful contract push for a 35-year old in the post-steroids era, but it's got to be up there on the list, right?

Geoff Blum, 3B/Util

2009 Season Stats: 427 PA, .247/.314/.367, 14 doubles, 1 triple, 10 HR, 34 runs, 49 RBIs, 0 for 1 stolen bases, 61 strikeouts, 81 OPS+

WAR: 0.6

UZR: 0.3

VORP: -0.5

Notes: Blum was the only regular Astros infielder (besides the catchers) who posted a negative VORP. His crazy hair styles and home runs off the bench were fun and zany in 2004 when the Astros were making their run to the postseason. Now? Blum's a steady defender but doesn't have great range and is aging quickly. His OPS+ of 81 is not good for any position, much less a corner infield spot. Surprisingly, Blum's numbers last season were right in line with his career line of .250/.310/.367, but moving into his age 37 season, he's probably not going to equal those numbers in 2010. Blum started 94 games at third and seven at first, but is probably better suited as being the Astros number one pinch hitter next year.

Ivan Rodriguez, C

2009 Season Stats: 344 PA, .251/.280/.382, 15 doubles, 2 triples, 8 HR, 41 runs, 34 RBIs, 0 for 2 stolen bases, 74 strikeouts, 75 OPS+

WAR:0.7

VORP: -1.1

Notes: Ahh, Pudge. Has there been a more controversial free agent signing by the Astros in recent memory? Can someone split a room between stat guys and traditional scouting guys more than Pudge? The 37-year old couldn't walk if he were given two balls at the beginning of every at-bat. He would sometimes throw out baserunners, but was never talked about as a good handler of the pitching staff. Where do we go from there? Pudge started out strong for the Astros but faded late, and did the same thing after being traded to the Rangers. Starting him and Matsui together proved dangerous for the Astros offense, as they both posted sub-80 OPS+. When 1/4 of the starting lineup can't get on base or hit for power, something's not right.

Humberto Quintero, C

2009 Season Stats: 168 PA, .236/.286/.376, 8 doubles, 1 triple, 4 HR, 11 runs, 14 RBIs, 0 of 0 stolen bases, 41 strikeouts, 75 OPS+

WAR: 0.5

VORP: -0.4

Notes: Q suffered through a bad concussion this season, but still managed to get into 60 games this season. He started some after Pudge was traded away, but didn't impress offensively. In fact, he's never hit much in the majors, with a career line of .232/.275/.325. Quintero has a strong arm and handles the pitching staff well, but will be 30 next season in his last non-arbitration year. He makes sense as a backup to someone like Towles or Jason Castro, but putting him in the starting lineup is a stretch.

J.R. Towles, C

2009 Season Stats (Houston): 53 PA, .188/.250/.354, 2 doubles, 0 triples, 2 HR, 7 runs, 3 RBIs, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 16 strikeouts, 59 OPS+

WAR: 0.0

VORP: -1.7

Notes: What to do with Towles? The 25-year old couldn't stay healthy at Round Rock this season, getting only 56 games with the Express. When he did play, Towles hit the ball well and got on base at a good clip, sporting an OPS of .842 in Triple-A. That didn't translate to the pros in either of his two stints with the team, but it should. All Towles needs is a little time and opportunity.

Jeff Keppinger, Util

2009 Season Stats: 344 PA, .256/.320/.387, 13 doubles, 3 triples, 7 HR, 35 runs, 29 RBIs, 0 for 2 stolen bases, 33 strikeouts, 88 OPS+

WAR: 0.4

UZR: 5.7

VORP: 2.8

Notes: Keppinger was a late-spring addition, something former GM Gerry Hunsicker made into somewhat of an art form. Unfortunately, Keppinger didn't work out quite as well as guys like Mike Lamb and Billy Spiers did. That's not to say Keppinger was bad, as his batting was okay for a shortstop. Again, unfortunately, Keppinger played 59 games at third base. His range and glove made him an asset defensively there, but his bat is not good enough to hold up there for long periods of time. Still, Keppinger is a useful player who makes more sense on the bench than most of the Astros' reserves.

Darin Erstad, 1B

2009 Season Stats: 150 PA, .194/.268/.328, 8 doubles, 2 triples, 2 HR, 13 runs, 11 RBIs, 0 for 2 stolen bases, 31 strikeouts, 58 OPS+

WAR: -0.9

UZR: 7.9

VORP: -8.2

Notes: Erstad was a surpringly resurgent part of the 2008 team. Of course, in that campaign, Erstad played 40 games in center field. This season? Just one appearance in center field. Erstad could be a useful player, but he doesn't have the bat to be a first baseman, even as a backup, and doesn't have the arm to play in right field. That leaves him as the caddy for Carlos Lee. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but the next manager should not view Erstad as the first bat off the bench to pinch hit.

Edwin Maysonet, 2B

2009 Season Stats: 79 PA, .290/.333/.362, 2 doubles, 0 triples, 1 HR, 9 runs, 7 RBIs, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 19 strikeouts, 86 OPS+

WAR: 0.3

UZR: 8.3

VORP: 1.1

Notes: Maysonet wasn't one of the best prospects in the Astros system, but made the best debut of any Astros rookie position player in 2009. His average was high, but his OBP was not impressive. Add to that his complete lack of power and it's not like we have the next Chase Utley here. Still, Maysonet probably deserved more playing time than he got. He'd been known in the minors as a great defensive player and flashed good range in his time with the big league club. The only downside is his minor league track batting record was not very good. Maysonet had a decent season in 2008 at Corpus Christi, but was pretty terrible at Round Rock last season. That could be him reacting to shuttling back and forth from Triple-A to the majors. That could be because he's not ready to hit high-level pitching. Only time will tell.

Tommy Manzella, SS

2009 Season Stats: 5 PA, .200/.200/.200, 0 doubles, 0 triples, 0 HR, 0 runs, 0 RBIs, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 4 strikeouts, 7 OPS+

WAR: 0.0

UZR: -11.6

VORP: -0.5

Notes: The Great Shortstop Hope will be 27 next season and hasn't made a dent in the big leagues yet. There were a couple stories in September about how Manzella was learning from Tejada and soaking it all in, but he still needs to play. Manzella was a very consistent hitter for Round Rock in 2009, batting .289/.339/.417 in 133 games. The one good thing? Manzella is a horse, playing 521 games over the past five seasons in the minors. His defense is good, but it's hard to quantify how good it will be in the majors. In all likelihood, Manzella will be given every chance to be the everyday shortstop next season.

Chris Johnson, 3B

2009 Season Stats: 23 PA, .091/.130/.091, 0 doubles, 0 triples, 0 HR, 1 run, 1 RBI, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 6 strikeouts, -39 OPS+

WAR:-0.4

UZR: -34.9

VORP: -4.2

Notes: Johnson is one of the few Astros prospects I'm not that high on. He gets a lot of credit for being a power hitter, but only hit 13 home runs last season and averaged 10 homers per year in his minor league career. His defense at third is just passable, but probably could be as good as Blum, given time. The question is: is this Astros team ready to take a chance on a young player going through growing pains at the big league level? It's going to take an adjustment for Johnson to be a productive big league hitter, and I'm not sure the Astros can be patient enough for that to happen.

Chris Coste, Util

2009 Season Stats: 112 PA, .204/.259/.252, 5 doubles, 0 triples, 0 HR, 3 runs, 10 RBIs, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 28 strikeouts, 37 OPS+

WAR: -0.5

UZR: -10.9

VORP: -8.1

Notes: After being picked up off waivers on July 10, Coste started a bunch of games when Lance Berkman was injured and then Ivan Rodriguez was traded to the Rangers. The problem is Coste just wasn't that good, either offensively or defensively. Coste didn't hit for much power in his brief stint with the team, but did manage to strike out a ton. So he's got that going for him, which is nice. Seriously, though, by whichever metric you look at, Coste is the prototypical replacement-level player. He's only on the roster because there aren't better options. Hopefully that will change in the off-season.

Matt Kata, Util

2009 Season Stats: 52 PA, .200/.212/.220, 1 double, 0 triple, 0 HR, 2 runs, 5 RBIs, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 5 strikeouts, 16 OPS+

WAR: -0.1

UZR: 8.7

VORP: -4.8

Notes: Kata was more useful for his versatility off the bench than his play. As I mentioned at the top, I don't account much for UZR as the ONLY defensive metric to analyze things, especially when we have to extrapolate it out based on small sample sizes. Still, it appears Kata was at least a decent defensive asset on the bench this season. He's now a free agent.

Jason Smith, Util

2009 Season Stats: 27 PA, .000/.000/.000, 0 doubles, 0 triples, 0 HR, 1 run, 1 RBI, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 9 strikeouts, -100 OPS+

WAR: -0.6

UZR: 21.6

VORP: -7.4

Notes: Smith didn't get much of a chance to show anything at the big league level. What he did show wasn't good. Smith did better with Round Rock, but is probably best suited as a utility guy on the end of a bench. Smith is a free agent and probably won't be back with Round Rock.

Aaron Boone, 3B

2009 Season Stats: 14 PA, .000/.071/.000, 0 doubles, 0 triples, 0 HR, 0 runs, 0 RBIs, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 2 strikeouts, -79 OPS+

WAR: -0.3

UZR: 15.9

VORP: -3.4

Notes: Not much to say here, other than for a guy to go through what Boone did in spring training and still get 14 plate appearances in the same season...well, that's just impressive.

Looking ahead to the Astros in 2010; The Cyclical Nature of Sports

HighLeveragePerformer — Sat, 05 Sep 2009 11:00:25 -0000

by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

These guys won't be on the team next season. I think. Maybe.

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RJ weighs in with a blog post telling us that the Astros don't have to be terrible in 2010. Let's point out a contradiction of his, right off the bat: in his last blog post, he noted that fans don't care about the Astros anymore. Friday though, he noted that:

People here care about this baseball team. They care deeply.

Ok, well nobody ever said Dickie was known for being consistent. Let's go on, shall we?

Astros fans will be OK with younger players as long as they see that the organization is committed to a larger picture. Besides that, whether the team is good or bad, there still aren't many better ways to spend a few hours than to sit inside Minute Maid Park and watch a baseball game.

Point to Mr. Justice. Indeed, a climate controlled environment, $8.50 beers, a downtown that is being improved upon seemingly by the week, and a city that loves sports. All factors that enable MMP to draw fans even when Humberto Quintero, Kaz Matsui, and Jason Michaels make up 1/3 of the Astros' lineup. Onward, I say!:

Also, don't go writing off Bud Norris, Tommy Manzella or Chris Johnson after just a month or even after a season. Remember how bad Michael Bourn was last year? Could you have ever imagined he would be the Astros MVP in 2009?

Damn you, Tricky Ricky! Making another point I can't readily disparage.

Weren't you a little embarrassed when the Astros made a big deal of Pudge Rodriguez becoming the all-time leader in games caught? Pudge meant nothing to most Astros fans. He got here when he was in decline, and at a time when the organization was sliding backwards.

....I don't know if embarrassed is the word I would use. Maybe it is.I'm so confused at this point. Agreeing with Justice this much is like a life long Republican nodding his head with a President Obama State of the Union address. It's just not right.

Install Tommy Manzella at short and Edwin Maysonet at second and come up with a plan to give Brian Bogusevic regular playing time in the outfield.

Chris Johnson? He should have every chance to win the third-base job. Same with Jason Castro behind the plate.

Echoing our own DQ? Stop it right now, Richard! He caps it all off with a push to sign pitching:

Among the free agents: Justin Duchscherer, Rich Harden, John Lackey, Carl Pavano, Brad Penny, Joel Pineiro, Kiko Calero, Fernando Rodney, Billy Wagner and Jamie Walker.

An interesting post, to be sure. Food for thought this weekend too.

This one is for you, 'ol Pete: the Seattle Pilots are having a player reunion this weekend, celebrating their one year of existence. The who?? Some may ask. They were Seattle's first major league franchise, playing the 1969 season before a used-car dealer from Milwaukee named Allan Selig spearheaded an effort to move Seattle's young franchise to his hometown. The Pilots would henceforth be known as the Milwaukee Brewers, so give thanks 'ol Pete, your town got a baseball team roughly forty years ago.

For those who don't know, my family is from Milwaukee (I was actually born there) and I have heard stories about the old Milwaukee Braves moving to Atlanta, and how the city was distraught after losing the team. My grandfather would watch games at County Stadium in the cold, and enjoyed every second of it. After his Braves left though, he never could embrace the Brewers fully. After much of our family moved to Texas in the early 1990s he saw the light and became an Astros' fan, following the club closer than he ever did the Brew Crew. To me, it was always funny how he bemoaned losing his Braves, but he's never mentioned how Milwaukee pried away the Pilots from Seattle. I think on a basic level, the team you grew up with is going to have that pull on your heartstrings for life. Right or wrong, good or bad, most fans have their allegiances and will until the day they die. Times change, teams do too, but those memories from your youth are eternal. Sports is beautiful sometimes, ya know? A lot of people in Seattle lost a team, but tons of little guys and gals in Milwaukee gained a sports following that has lasted a lifetime.

The worst part of the Pilots saga was that it would foreshadow the city of Seattle eventually losing their beloved Sonics, and almost losing the Mariners in the early 1990s, before Ken Griffey, Jr. and crew saved the day, Seattle has had a bumpy sports history despite fielding competitive teams in all three of the major US sports. Hell, the Seattle Sounders soccer club are wowing folks in Washington, and drawing big crowds to boot. You win some, you lose some. You lose a piece of your town, and gain a new piece. Such is life, such is sports.

Cecil Cooper Firing Rumors and The Friday Morning Astros Round Up

HighLeveragePerformer — Fri, 04 Sep 2009 11:04:27 -0000

More photos » by Danny Moloshok - AP

Arguing won't increase your job security even a little bit, Coop.

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If you're anything like me, you found that Thursday was a tease. I must have checked the Chronicle's website fifty times throughout the day to see if a certain manager had been fired. Nope. Maybe today will be the day?

Here are a few pieces of speculation that haven't been posted on TCB yet: Ken Rosenthal expects Cooper to be fired soon, despite his signing a contract extension through 2010. Candidates to replace Coop include current third base coach Dave Clark, and former Phillie manager Jim Fergosi. I think if we replace Cooper with one of Ed Wade's old boys from Philly, I probably will upset...to say the least.

Another report basically re-iterates what Rosenthal said:

Cooper appears a goner in Houston after owner Drayton McLane said he will thoroughly evaluate the organization following the season.

Maybe my Joe Morgan inspired trivia question yesterday didn't fool anyone, but the topic of Astros' team MVP did spark a bit of a discussion. Michael Bourn seems to be the front runner in most people's minds, and I tend to agree:

"I'd be hard-pressed to think of anybody more deserving," Astros president of baseball operations Tal Smith said. "I certainly don't want to denigrate anybody else, but Michael has been just superb in all respects, offensive and defensively. His speed is such a factor."

This study on the chattiest baseball announcers absolutely shocked me. Apparently, Bill Brown is a fairly talkative guy in the booth, more so than even the Rangers' Josh Lewin. Say what you will about the Rangers and how well they've played in 2009, but their announcers leave a great deal to be desired. Subjectively, I guess I always associated Lewin as being over talkative and rarely on point.

Without the internet, how much would you know about the Astros' minor league affiliates? Probably not much. Zach Levine started to do a minor league notebook this summer in the Chronicle, but outside of him there isn't very much information to be had. Fortunately, we don't have to worry about that.

**DQ Insert**

J.R. Towles will be returning to the bigs tonight. It doesn't sound like, however, that he'll be given much playing time. Frustrating, frustrating, frustrating. Why not have him work with Bud Norris, Feliepe Paulino and Yorman Bazardo? Why do we need to get further looks at Humberto Quintero? Or Chris Coste for that matter? Why do I consistently continue to hope that decision making will make sense with this team?

Richard Justice, who is pretty much solely responsible for all the "Will Cecil Cooper get fired?" hoopla yesterday, tries to deduce who is to blame for the state of this franchise, and therefore be fired. The arguments are many, but the basic sub-conclusion which Justice reaches and should not be lost is that Cecil Cooper should be fired. Other than that, it seems like Justice might just be stabbing at, but never arriving at the fact that Drayton McLane is his own worst enemy at this point.

Thursday Morning Astros, etc Round Up

HighLeveragePerformer — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 11:00:12 -0000

More photos » by Tony Gutierrez - AP

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Mike Hamtpon has a tear in his rotator cuff. The guy is resilient to say nothing else, as he has

...opted for rehab instead of surgery with hopes of returning this season.

A signficant tear to me means that he can rehab all he wants, but with a little over five weeks remaining on the season, it'd be difficult to imagine Hampton returning. Danyah, if you have any insight into the injury, we'd be happy to hear it! DQ pegged Hampy at 110 IP in 2009. Right on the head, good sir. It looks like Felipe Paulino/Yorman Bazardo are going to get their shot, albeit on less than desireable terms. So it goes with veteran pitchers with a history of injury...

Good 'ol Dickie J plays the blame game in his recent blog post. After writing some rosy posts the past few weeks, Richard spares no punches in casting his net of blame across all of Astro-Land. Can't say I blame him, but his bi-polar attitude towards the team continues to puzzle me to no end.

Baseball America gives a pretty evenhanded synopsis of the Ivan Rodriguez trade. Their quick take on the deal from the Astros' perpsective:

As Houston fell 10 games behind the Cardinals in the NL Central, the Rodriguez deal indicated that the Astros might be looking toward next season. Without Rodriguez, Chris Coste and Humberto Quintero will split time behind the dish. For giving up Rodriguez, Houston received at least two mid-level prospects and helped pave the way for catcher Jason Castro, the team's 2008 first-round pick.

Their take on Matt Nevarez:

With 90-95 mph velocity and a hard slider, Nevarez's game is geared toward power. His physicality helps his stuff play up in the bullpen, and he could move quickly in that role if he tightens his control. Nevarez had walked 15 batters—or 3.9 per nine innings—this season in the Rangers system.

FanGraphs, as well sees this as a positive move for a beleaguered Astros' club:

Neither player is going to turn around the Astros, but credit Ed Wade for getting something out of nothing.

Our last bit of quoteage comes from none other than Jeff Francouer, who described a four base hit thusly:

That was a lot of fun, Jeff Francoeur said. You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don't want to do is hit a home run. That's a rally-killer.

Hat tip to Driveline Mechanics for that one. The former writers at FJM are smiling somewhere.

***DQ Insert***

Here's a link (click link to listen) to the ESPN 97.5 The Ticket interview I fielded yesterday. Remember that we do these every Sunday morning at 9:45 AM (CDT).

Astros win the most uncomfortable 6-3 game—ever

DyingQuail — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 03:35:27 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

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After being way prematurely yanked to satisfy whatever rumbling was occurring in Cecil Cooper's gut, Yorman Bazardo was removed and lost a shot at being the pitcher of record. I was looking for Bazardo's start to make me feel good about our prospects in 2010 and Yorman did little to let me sleep well tonight: 4.2IP, 6H, 2R, 2ER, 1K, 4BB using 95 pitches (maybe 98, there's some controversy). That's a 1.93K/9, 0.25K:BB, and a paltry 1.05K/100. Not exactly what I was hoping for.

To say that Bazardo lacked control would be an understatement. At times he flashed crisp fastballs and an excellent slider/change-up combo and others he had an inability to keep his fastball down and his breaking stuff in the zone. The one positive I can laud Bazardo with is that he managed to work his way out of jams and limit the damage. In fact, he should have been able to complete the full 5IP were it not for Kaz Matsui bobbling the ball on the exchange of botched GIDP. Coop went with Tim Byrdak who managed to continue not being effective against lefties without Coop catching on. Instead of allowing Byrdak to pitch to RHBs, who he's actually more effective against, Coop went to Samuel Gervacio who needed five pitches to collect the third out...something that would earn him the pitcher of record nod (reason #583958277134 that wins are meaningless).

Jeff Fulchino, LaTroy Hawkins, and Jose Valverde all combined to finish off the Marlins, who still collected over ten hits for the fifteenth consecutive game. Valverde, however, continued his streak of having a total inability to just go get three outs without giving an entire city a collective heart attack. With two outs, Valverde decided to walk two batters, then hit Wes Helms. After an eleven pitch battle with Chris Coghlan, Valverde recorded the K and the final out. He has got to stop doing that.

Here are the positives from the offense:

Michael Bourn did it all: bunt hit, stolen bases, advances on errors, ridiculous plays in centerfield, and he clocked a 3B. Ridiculous night.
Lance Berkman had a multi-hit night.
Humberto Quintero crushed a homerun off the Conaco porch in left center.
Carlos Lee, after looking his weight in the first inning, made two "amazing" defensive plays in the 8th and 9th innings.
Hunter Pence collected a hit and a walk, but also two SB. Between Pence and Bourn, the Astros were 4/4 on the base paths—it's a miracle.
Miguel Teajda broke out of his 0/19 streak with a 2B. He then GIDPed in his next AB.
Jason Michaels contributed a PH 2B.

via www.fangraphs.com

Marlins vs Astros coverage ; FishStripes

Wednesday Morning Astros, etc Round Up

HighLeveragePerformer — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 11:00:12 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - ASSOCIATED PRESS

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As Ivan Rodriguez heads out of Houston, Zach Levine looks back on the era of Astros baseball in which he donned the starred hat. Oh Pudge, we hardly knew ye...in a sense. In another, more tangible baseball sense, we knew him all too well as a below replacement level catcher who didn't help the Astros defense all that much, and was a sieve with a bat in his hands after May. Drayton wanted a big league catcher on the team to start 2009, meaning that Humberto Quintero and JR Towles weren't ready for primetime. Q isn't and will never be, and JR still has time to prove us wrong.

The Dallas Morning News introduced readers to Jose Vallejo and Matt Nevarez. He calls Vallejo a top 20 prospect, suggesting his high ceiling and athleticism should play well for him in the Astros' system. On the flip side, Matt Nevarez is running out of time to prove himself. The Astros will need to place him on their 40 man roster in order to protect him from the Rule V draft. Should they do so, he has only a few seasons to make a positive impression on the major league level before he becomes a free agent outright.

What would Jose Vallejo have done as a major leaguer this season? Well it's not great to say the least: .215/.263/.293.

As far as what the Rangers will have to pay in terms of salary for Rodriguez' services, Evan Grant chimes in that:

Rodriguez is owed about $300,000 in salary, but he’s on the brink of a number of incentive thresholds. He has 344 plate appearances at this time and will get $200,000 when he reached 350. He gets another $200,000 at 375. Other incentives for 400, 425 and 450 seem unreachable. If he plays in seven more games, he’s also due another incentive bonus for reaching 100 games. So there could be up to close to $1 million remaining in payment.

The credit for this deal occurring lies with Rangers' GM Jon Daniels. It's not as if Ed Wade is exhibiting his plan to rebuild the Astros by trading away veterans for youngsters. Daniels had a need, and he did what he thought was best to satiate that need by trading for Pudge.

However, if we examine why the Rangers needed a backup backstop, the situation makes Daniels not appear as savvy in making this late season trade for a hometown favorite. Remember last season, when the Rangers were out of the race early, and they had in their stable three young catchers? Max Ramirez, Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Taylor Teagarden were all thought to be potential catchers of the future for any major league team. It was inconceivable that at some point the Rangers wouldn't trade one if not two of them. Depth is depth, but for a rebuilding team, a young catcher is worth the weight of his gear in gold.

Rumors and potential deals swirled concerning Ramirez possibly heading to a team with a need like the Red Sox. It made sense to a great extent- Ramirez hit well in the minors in 2008, and contending teams like Boston had aging, somewhat unreliable options at their disposal. From his position of strength, Jon Daniels did not trade any of these young men. They stayed with the organization, and to the surprise of some, the Rangers are in contention in 2009 a year or two ahead of schedule.

It's difficult to say what the Rangers could have gotten for Max Ramirez or either of the other two top catchers, but suffice it to say that it was probably someone who could have helped their club in 2009. Maybe Daniels thought that one of his catchers would put it all together and be the player to catch 130, 135 games for him. That hasn't happened, and now a position of strength isn't so fortified. Say what you will about a veteran presence, but it would have surprised many last season to be told that the Rangers would trade prospects of any sort for Ivan Rodriguez in 2009. The Rangers are going to good for many years to come, and Daniels should get the lion's share of the credit. It's funny though, how much things can change in a year's time, and goes to show that even the most well equipped teams on occassion have to acquire the Pudge Rodriguezes of the world.

Just to get rid of all the post-Pudge reporter opinions (a DQ insert):

Alyson Footer probably provides the most informative of the recap/reaction pieces. She starts by looking at Matt Nevarez and has this to say:

One scouting report describes Matt Nevarez as having a "huge arm" but also as "extremely raw." The Astros do not see him as raw. They like his plus-plus fastball and see what could be the makings of an average slider.

Footer also touches on how the deal went down between Jon Daniels and Ed Wade. For the most part it's all pretty nonchalant information until she mentions that Pudge inquired with Ed Wade about coming back to Houston 2010 before he left for the air port. The plot thickens, I suppose.

Although Drayton McLane wants everyone to know that this does not mean the Astros are going into rebuilding mode, some of the players think otherwise. The most outspoken among them, Roy Oswalt.

"I got to the clubhouse and they told me they traded Pudge, and I guess that's the process of trying to build the club for next year," Oswalt said. "That's what I'm hoping they are doing now. There is a time where you have to start rebuilding, and if you wait until the end of the season, you may not get the pieces you need for the next year. I think we still have some dates here where we can get guys that can help us next year, and why not do it now rather than wait and have to go up and bid against somebody in the offseason in a bidding war."

I've got to give Roy credit on this. Whether or not it's actually possible to moves the pieces he wants moved (Hawkins, Valverde...?) remains to be seen. Oswalt has a friend in the media on this one, as JJO chimes in with similar sentiments.

Rangers acquiring Pudge from the Astros: Why?

DyingQuail — Tue, 18 Aug 2009 17:39:41 -0000

More photos » by Darren Hauck - AP

Pudge is allegedly going back home to Dallas.

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Reports are varying on this one. LoneStartBall has the deal as all but complete and TR Sullivan has it as near complete. There will apparently be two mid-tier prospects swapped for Ivan Rodriguez, who will serve as Taylor Teagarden's back up.

I'm not sure why this deal is being made from the Ranger's perspective, and equally confused by this deal from our perspective. Pudge isn't hitting, but with the rumors swirling that he might be kept on in 2010 to help mentor Jason Castro, I don't know why the Astroswould let him go. Because Pudge isn't hitting, I don't know why the Rangers wanted to acquire him for the last six weeks of the season?

Perhaps once the prospects are named and the GM's speak this one will make more sense.

This now opens up the question of whether or not JR Towles will get another crack at the bigs? Or whether Humberto Quintero and Chris Coste will be share catching duties until the season's end?

**UPDATE**

MLBFanHouse is reporting, via twitter, that one of the PTBNL is relief pitcher Matt Nevarez.

**UPDATE**

Jeff Wilson of the Dallas Morning News has the contract information:

The Rangers are responsible for a prorated portion of the contract, which includes $1.5 million in incentives.

***HLP Update***

Jamey Newberg, blogger extraordinnaire and Ranger aficionado, recently ranked the top Rangers prospects and as expected Matt Nevarez isn't in the top 20. However, he is listed as a "pitcher to watch". Given the strength of the Rangers' farm system this isn't necessarily an indictment of Nevarez, but more of a testament to the Rangers' depth.

Here are Nevarez' stats from 2009. Obviously, he has pitched extremely well, but he has a long ways to go before he will be on the Astros' radar screen.

As far as the PTBNL could be, Newberg speclulates that it could be any of a number of minor league players on the Rangers 40 man roster or a minor leaguer that the Astros would have a set time period from which to choose from. If it is a player on the 40 man roster, expect it to be one these guys:

[C]andidates for the second player would conceivably include Thomas Diamond, Luis Mendoza, Joaquin Arias, Jose Vallejo, or Greg Golson. I leave players like Guillermo Moscoso, Warner Madrigal, Omar Poveda, Max Ramirez, and Brandon Boggs off because I don’t think Texas would include them in a deal like this.

Their 40 man roster in its entirety can be found here. None of those players Newberg lists as likely candidates are all that enticing in my opinion, so hopefully Wade can choose from more than just those five. However, considering that he's only giving up a 37 year old backup catcher whose mired in 1.5 season+ hitting slump, don't get overly optimistic on that front.

**UPDATE**

Richard Justice likes this trade because and thinks the Astros should continue to blow up their roster so that we can give younger players looks. There's overly insightful in his piece, except for this:

My guess is that Drayton will fire Cecil Cooper and most of the coaching staff. This is a smart move only if he hires first-rate people to replace them, and his recent history indicates he may not do this.

Optimizing the Astros Lineup by THE BOOK: Season Update

DyingQuail — Thu, 06 Aug 2009 23:45:25 -0000

More photos » by Keith Srakocic - AP

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Before the season started, SkyKalkmen at BtB got many of us thinking about how the Astros could maximize their offensive talent. At the time, I went through the likely Astros regulars and looked at their PECOTA, ZIPS, and CHONE projections and made my best guess at how to get the most from our collection of relatively high SLG to low OBP guys that all three systems projected.

It's August now, and we know enough about the actual performance of the Astros to move away from the projections and go ahead and look what they've actually produced and how Cecil Cooper could best harness that when constructing his lineup card. While this optimized lineup will have to wait for Lance Berkman to return from the DL, it's some food for thought for an evening without baseball...right?

Leading Off: Michael Bourn

Here's what we're actually looking for in a lead off hitter:

The old-school book says to put a speedy guy up top. Power isn't important, and OBP is nice, but comes second to speed.

The Book says OBP is king. The lead-off hitter comes to bat only 36% of the time with a runner on base, versus 44% of the time for the next lowest spot in the lineup, so why waste homeruns? The lead-off hitter also comes to the plate the most times per game, so why give away outs? As for speed, stealing bases is most valuable in front of singles hitters, and since the top of the order is going to be full of power hitters, they're not as important. The lead-off hitter is one of the best three hitters on the team, the guy without homerun power. Speed is nice, as this batter will have plenty of chances to run the bases with good hitters behind him.

When I did this in early April, Hunter Pence was slated as our lead off guy, but Michael Bourn has defied every projection system (and likely our own) expectations. With the third high OBP on the team at .360, Bourn really is the ideal lead off hitter.

Batting Second: Lance Berkman

The old-school book says to put a bat-control guy here. Not a great hitter, but someone who can move the lead-off hitter over for one of the next two hitters to drive in.

The Books says the #2 hitter comes to bat in situations about as important as the #3 hitter, but more often. That means the #2 hitter should be better than the #3 guy, and one of the best three hitters overall. And since he bats with the bases empty more often than the hitters behind him, he should be a high-OBP player. Doesn't sound like someone who should be sacrificing, does it?

As I said in April, Lance is the ideal two hole hitter. He leads the Astros in both OBP, SLG, ISO, wOBA...he's our best hitter—period.

In the three hole: Miguel Tejada

The old-school book says to put your best high-average hitter here. The lead-off hitter should already be in scoring position and a hit drives him in. Wham, bam, thank you ma'am.

The Book says the #3 hitter comes to the plate with, on average, fewer runners on base than the #4 or #5 hitters. So why focus on putting a guy who can knock in runs in the #3 spot, when the two spots after him can benefit from it more? Surprisingly, because he comes to bat so often with two outs and no runners on base, the #3 hitter isn't nearly as important as we think. This is a spot to fill after more important spots are taken care of.

Miggy is having a phenomenal season in terms of collecting hits, but he's offensive numbers, overall, lead a lot to be desired. With that in mind, he finds himself in the three hole, where his skill set will be maximized and not wasted.

Batting Clean-up: Carlos Lee

The old-school book says to put your big power bat here, probably a guy with a low batting average, who will hit the big multi-run homeruns.

The Book says the #4 hitter comes to bat in the most important situations out of all nine spots, but is equal in importance to the #2 hole once you consider the #2 guy receives more plate appearances. The cleanup hitter is the best hitter on the team with power.

Carlos Lee feels pretty self-explanatory here: second best hitter, lower OBP than Lance...

Batting Fifth: Hunter Pence

The three and five hole were tough decisions for me to make because of the wonkiness of Miguel Tejada this year, but after my agonizing, I feel confident that as of August 6th, 2009, the Astros actually have five players who make sense filling out the first five spots of the optimized lineup from The Book.

The old-school book says the number five guy is a wannabe cleanup hitter.

The Book says the #5 guy can provide more value than the #3 guy with singles, doubles, triples, and walks, and avoiding outs, although the #3 guy holds an advantage with homeruns. After positions #1, #2, and #4 are filled, put your next best hitter here, unless he lives and dies with the long ball.

Hunter Pence is Carlos Lee, with less HR. So he's our wannabe clean up hitter.

Six, Seven, Eight, and Nine:

Even though the Astros have two full-time platoons operating, it actually works out such that it doesn't matter whether the opposing pitcher is left-handed or right-handed, or whether Q or Pudge are behind the plate either. The Je(geo)ff's are eerily similar hitters in 2009 and Humberto Quintero and Ivan Rodriguez are both just equally bad.

So here's how the rest of the lineup should shake out:

6. Geoff Blum/Jeff Keppinger

7. Kazuo Matsui

8. Humberto Quintero/Ivan Rodriguez

9) Pitcher du Jour

A caveat could be made that Mike Hampton (and at this point even Roy Oswalt) should bat eight on the days that he toes the mound, but as Sky discussed in his original piece, the effect of having two "lead-off" hitters is negligible over the course of a full season. However, whatever Cecil Cooper does with the pitcher, what's amazing is how close our actual lineup is to the optimized one. Do we have to start giving kudos to Coop now?

Astros Drop A Deuce On Dodgers

Eric Stephen — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 05:45:52 -0000

More photos » by Gus Ruelas - AP

Wandy Rodriguez pitched beautifully for six innings tonight.

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The Dodgers might be seeing breaking balls in their sleep tonight, as Wandy Rodriguez, Alberto Arias, and the Astros were mesmerizing with their curveballs Thursday night, shutting out the home team 3-0 at Dodger Stadium.

I double-checked on MLB Gameday, and it only listed ten curveballs by Rodriguez, who pitched six scoreless innings to get his ninth win on the season. I have a feeling some of the pitches listed as sliders were actually curveballs, but for now let's take a look at the listed curveballs by both Rodriguez and Arias:

Pitcher	Curves	Strikes	Outs
Rodriguez	10	6	4
Arias	7	5	2

Humberto Quintero homered in the fifth to give the Astros a 1-0 lead, one they would never relinquish.

The Dodgers had a few rallies, putting two men on base with nobody out in both the fifth and seventh innings. But it was all for naught in this night, as the Dodgers were shutout for just the fifth time this season.

Randy Wolf entered the seventh inning having allowed one run on just two hits, but left after allowing consecutive singles to Lance Berkman, Miguel Tejada, and Hunter Pence. Guillermo Mota entered the game with the bases loaded and nobody out, and pitched decently enough, even inducing a double play, but allowed two inherited runs.

Lance Berkman left the game in the middle of the eighth inning with a strained left calf, and is day-to-day, per Alyson Footer of MLB.com.

Manny Ramirez is now 13-1 at home this season.

Tomorrow's pitching matchup is a dandy: Chad Billingsley vs. Roy Oswalt.

WP - Wandy Rodriguez (9-6): 6 IP,5 hits, 2 walks, 6 strikeouts

LP - Randy Wolf (4-4): 6 IP, 5 hits, 3 runs, 1 walk, 6 strikeouts

Sv - Jose Valverde (9): 1 IP, 1 hit

Box Score

Astros crest .500 for the first time in 2009: Astros - 3 Dodgers - 0

DyingQuail — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 05:42:44 -0000

More photos » by Gus Ruelas - AP

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This will easily the first time that I won't mind having had to stay alert until 12:20 AM CDT to write a game recap. The Astros started off the second half of the season in encouraging fashion with Wandy Rodriguez battling through what HLP and I remarked, via phone, to be one widely inconsistent, but wide, strike zone to shut out the Dodgers for six innings. After that, Tim Byrdak, Alberto Arias, LaTroy Hawkins, and Jose Valverde combined to honor Wandy's effort and slam the door on a shut out on the best team in baseball whose fabled slugger, Manny Ramirez, was back in LA for the first time since his attempt to restart his ovaries landed him a 50 game suspension.

The positives (there will be no corollary negatives):

Wandy Rodriguez posted the following line: 6IP, 5H, 0R, 6K, 2BB, 7 GB outs, and 5 FB outs on 108 pitches, 68 of which were strikes. That's a 3 K:BB and a 5.56 K/100. Not the greatest outing ever, but against a team who is near the top in just about every offensive category of worth in the NL—pretty stellar. Thanks, Wandy.
Humberto Quintero felt bad about stranding Kaz Matsui after Kaz just missed a HR in the 3rd, so he went ahead a crushed his first HR of the year to deep right center field.
Cecil Cooper pulled the right lever by inserting Darin Erstad as Lance Berkman's defensive replacement and it paid off in spades with Erstad making two pretty dazzling plays to keep the Dodgers from truly threatening the Astros. The problem of watching the game on mute is that you don't find out Lance Berkman left the game with a calf strain until it pops up in your RSS feed after you hit publish...
Alberto Arias continues to honor everyone here at TCB who pegged him to be a dark horse for the Astros in 2009 by working out of he and Byrdak's jam in the 7th by striking out Juan Piere and Raphel Furcal before getting a GB out on Andre Either.
Carlos Lee didn't have an embarrassing moment in the game.

So yeah, all in all a good night. The important part is that for the first time in 2009, we're winners. Drink it in.

via www.fangraphs.com

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