SB Nation - Wandy Rodriguez

How Much Could Carl Pavano Get Through Arbitration?

Jesse — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 04:02:21 -0000

Six million? That's alright. Ten million? That's outta sight. Right?

When the Twins offered Carl Pavano arbitration on Tuesday, it didn't exactly come as a surprise. He was the only Minnesota free agent to receive an offer, and well, that really didn't come as a surprise either.

Pavano and his agent have made it clear that they intend to test the open market, but for a guy who A) has said he wouldn't mind a return to Minnesota, B) has said he's not really interested in finding himself on another new team, C) probably wants to play for a contender and D) would be entering a free agent market where salaries could be suppressed (hurrah collusion conspiracy theories!), does he really want to turn down the opportunity that's presented itself to him?

The burly right-hander turns 34 in early January, and is coming off of his first not just productive but healthy season since 2004 when he was still with the Marlins. I don't want to say the end is in sight for Carl, but realistically there are way more years in baseball behind him than in front of him.

We've talked before about how FanGraphs tends to over-value a player's production in terms of dollars, and it's no different with Pavano as they estimate that on the open market his production was worth $16.5 million dollars. Obviously there's no way his numbers would be worth that much money to replace. But he was probably worth more than the $1.5 million base he was on the books for in 2009.

Here's Pavano and six other guys who had similar seasons across a number of different categories; some are closer than others.

Player	Age	Team	IP	FIP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/G	WHIP	FG Dollars
Carl Pavano	33	Indians/ Twins	199.1	4.00	6.64	1.76	3.77	1.17	1.37	$16.5
Nick Blackburn	27	Twins	205.1	4.37	4.29	1.79	2.39	1.09	1.37	$13.3
Mark Buehrle	30	White Sox	213.1	4.46	4.43	1.90	2.33	1.14	1.25	$15.2
James Shields	27	Rays	219.2	4.02	6.84	2.13	3.63	1.19	1.32	$18.3
Cole Hamels	25	Phillies	193.2	3.72	7.81	2.00	3.91	1.12	1.29	$16.9
Ryan Dempster	32	Cubs	200.0	3.87	7.74	2.93	2.65	0.99	1.31	$16.4
Scott Baker	27	Twins	200.0	4.08	7.29	2.16	3.38	1.26	1.19	$15.9

Blackburn was under team control last summer, but the rest of this fine cast of characters were all pitching under a contract in 2009:

Pavano: $1.5 M
Buehrle: $14.0 M
Shields: $1.5 M
Hamels: $4.35 M
Dempster: $8 M
Baker: $750 K

Immediately you see the problem. All of these guys are at different stages of their careers and at different contractual stages, and it's not realistic to just take the average of the six salaries for an estimate, which is just over $5 million. Or is it?

Here's a list of arbitration-eligible starters from last winter who were 30 or older, and what kind of a contract they received, although this won't help either because it's not free-agent arbitration:

Mike Gonzalez, 30, 1 year/$3.45 M
Brandon Backe, 30, 1 year/$1.55 M
Wandy Rodriguez, 30, 1 year/$2.6 M
Chris Capuano, 30, minor-league contract
Justin Duchscherer, 31, 1 year/$3.9 M
Todd Wellemeyer, 30, 1 year/$4.05 M

Which of course means Pavano is, more than likely, due more money than Wellemeyer received last year in his final year of arbitration. But how much?

A 34-year old Braden Looper made $4.75 million in 2009 after signing a contract with the Brewers. Coming out of his age-31 season Dempster signed a pretty substantial four-year deal with the Cubs. Randy Wolf (32) made a shade under $5 million this season, and Pavano's former rotation-mate Brady Penny (31 last season) made about the same. Jamie Moyer (older than baseball itself) made $6.5 million.

Those are the kind of guys Pavano can be grouped with: veterans who can provide innings and still be effective without breaking the bank and/or being the staff ace. So maybe $5 million doesn't actually sound so bad for an arbitration offer after all.

If that's all arbitration could garner Pavano, maybe he really might be better taking his chances on the market if he is concerned about the dollars.

Conclusions

With uncharacteristically low contracts offered last season, there has been a lot of talk that teams in baseball would rather non-tender certain arbitration-eligible players and forego the remaining year(s) of team control than pay what has suddenly become a price higher than market value. It's a financial luxury teams are choosing not to take advantage of. If this is indeed the case, some veterans who aren't sure of what the market will provide may be tempted to accept that arbitration offer.

Additionally, Pavano's recent history is blemished with injuries and an entire lost season, and that leads me to believe that the chances of his payday in arbitration being closer to $10 million than to $5 million aren't very high. But realistically, after the season he had in '09, I have little doubt that he could find a team willing to offer a two or three-year deal worth that $5 million...per year. If not more (I have some doubts about a continued suppression of spending in free agency this year). So in spite of the possibly lowered expectations on the free agent market and a guaranteed payday via the arbitration route, Carl will probably have the option of multiple years. Personally, that's not something I want to see the Twins take on.

It was a good move by Minnesota to make Pavano the offer, and oddly enough it puts them in a no-lose situation. If he accepts they'll get him for one year at what is likely to be a price that the team can easily absorb, and if not then the Twins receive a compensatory draft pick next June and the freedom to go after somebody else with that allocated cash. As long as this doesn't somehow turn into a multi-year, mega-millions fiasco, this is a good situation.

GM for the day: What would you do if Ed Wade handed you the key to the Astros?

DyingQuail — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 15:46:04 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

Before you can criticize a man, you have a to walk a mile in his shoes. Here's your chance to have free reign with Eddy in the future.

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We're pretty much at the first of two nadir's for the baseball offseason (is that possible in the logical sense?). This week and then those two of purgatory before pitchers and catchers report. So what better for us to do than do what we nerds of our mother's basement do than prognosticate about what'd we'd do if we were in charge. I mean, that is what a baseball blog's function is, in a sense; at least, that's what attracted to me this in the first place.

So imagine this scenario: Your cell phone goes off, and you don't recognize the 713 number that's calling you. Perplexed, but intrigued, you decide to pick it up. Lo and behold—it's Ed Wade. He's calling to tell you that he's been reading your posts/comments on this site and he thinks you'd be a great "top advisor," which he explains to essentially be relieving of his duties and taking over as GM. This doesn't mean you get to march into Drayton's office and start demanding money to work with, or that you'll have Billy Beane luck at making awesome trades come out of thin air, seemingly.

At this point, I'm sure that for most of us, the thrill of the moment has subsided as we realize: "Oh God D@^nit!, I really have to figure things out." But, we'd persevere. We persevere every day here in the comments section, so for sake of keeping the discussion interesting: Let's do it again.

None of us think about the team the same way, so all ideas are fair game—so long as the rules are followed.

The rules are fairly simple:

The most you can persuade Drayton into spending this offseason is $95 million.
If you propose a trade, that pieces have to match reality. This isn't fantasy baseball. This means Carlos Lee isn't going anywhere.
Arbitration decisions have to be made. That's both offers and amounts for Wandy Rodriguez, Hunter Pence, and Jeff Keppinger, plus whoever you realistically believe will accept from Jose Valverde, Miguel Tejada, and LaTroy Hawkins.

Go forth. Let your imaginations run wild.

Free Agent Profile: Miguel Tejada

davoag — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 13:00:13 -0000

by Alex Brandon - AP

The market for Tejada will be tough to ascertain.

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Lots to talk about since the last time we looked at the free agency market. In this profile of what kind of deal Miguel Tejada may get, I thought it prudent to look at two important facts. First, how much will the Astros have available to spend?

If, as Wade said, the Astros will reduce payroll in 2010, that means their number will be lower than the 102 million they spent on Opening Day 2009. How much less is up for debate. After arbitration raises to Hunter Pence, Wandy Rodriguez and others, the Astros will have about 80 million committed already in 2010. Assuming the Astros lop 12 million off last year's number, that leaves them with 10 million to spend. Seems about right, doesn't it?

It's still what we've been projecting as their available room since the offseason began, before Wade confirmed it was the case. We'll get to my theory on how much Tejada will cost, but that's not a lot of money to spend to fill a couple of glaring holes.

The second thing to look at is the current market for third baseman. It may not be a foregone conclusion that Tejada will have to switch positions, his bat seems to fit more in line with the corner of the infield market. Of that list, Tejada is probably not going to get the richest deal and possibly not the third-richest deal. I still think he commands a good chunk of change, though. The question is, does it make more sense for the Astros to spend on Tejada or a guy like Pedro Feliz? Just some things to think about when looking at last winter...

The Shortstops

Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles Dodgers

Contract Details: 3 years, 30 million (09-6.5m, 10-8.5m, 11-12m, 12-12m option)

Notes: Furcal entered last year's market after totaling just 164 plate appearances. Still, the then-31-year old posted a wOBA of .440 and a UZR/150 of -15.2. The Dodgers still rewarded Furcal with the richest contract any shortstop earned last winter. Furcal's defense has been all over the boards the past couple of years, but I think it's safe to say conventional wisdom shows he's was better defensively heading into last offseason than Tejada is now. Consider this contract the upper boundary of what Tejada can expect.

Nick Punto, Minnesota Twins

Contract Details: 2 years, 8.5 million (09-4.25m, 10-4.25m, 11-5m option)

Notes: The 30-year old got this contract coming off a season where he played 99 games. Punto hit pretty decently when he did play, posting a wOBA of .324 and had a UZR/150 of 17.9. Punto is a much better fielder than Tejada, but can't hit nearly as well. He's also younger, but couldn't get more than a two-year deal in last year's market.

Orlando Cabrera, Oakland A's

Contract Details: 1 year, 4 million

Notes: Cabrera couldn't have illustrated the plight of Type A free agents any better. With no team willing to give up draft picks for a 34-year old shortstop coming off a season where he posted a wOBA of .316 with excellent defense (by all accounts). Obviously, Cabrera falls into the same situation as Punto. Both players were good defense, bad bat types, which makes them the exact opposite of Tejada. Still, it may be hard for Tejada to get more than a one-year deal this winter.

Cesar Izturis, Baltimore Orioles

Contract Details: 2 years, 5 million (09-2.4m, 10-2.6m)

Notes: Another good defensive shortstop that posted a sub-par wOBA heading into his free agency period. Izturis got a multi-year deal and performed admirably for Baltimore. His contract is lower than the deals that Punto and Cabrera ended up with, but not for a lack of offense. In fact, the only difference tangibly between these three players is that the other two had a better defensive reputation and Izturis had a down year offensively with the Cardinals in 2008. Of course, I say 'reputation' about defense since there is not much difference in the three's defensive stats.

Edgar Renteria, San Francisco Giants

Contract Details: 2 years, 18.5 million (09-7m, 10-9.5m, 11-10.5m option)

Notes: While Renteria's defense wasn't as bad as Tejada's, at least by UZR, Renteria also didn't post as good a wOBA as Tejada's. It fits that Renteria would be the best shortstop comparable for Tejada, though by all accounts, his defense is good enough to stay at short for a little while longer. This deal, though, feels like something Tejada could end up with this winter.

The Third Basemen

Casey Blake, Los Angeles Dodgers

Contract Details: 3 years, 17.5 million (09-5m, 10-6m, 11-5.25m, 12-6m option)

Notes: Now we move into the third basemen that hit the market last winter. Blake had a great run with the Dodgers after being traded to Los Angeles and was locked up to a reasonable deal. Blake more than outperformed his contract in 2009, but his deal was the richest given to a potential third base free agent last winter. If Tejada moves to the hot corner, look for his deal to be in this range.

Ty Wigginton, Baltimore Orioles

Contract Details: 2 years, 6 million (09-2.5m, 10-3.5m)

Notes: Ahh, the dearly departed Astro, Wigginton signed with Baltimore for two years at a very reasonable 6 million. Wigginton probably was over-extended as a third baseman and only played 39 games there in 2009. Wigginton was close to as valuable offensively as Tejada but wasn't good defensively at third. Tejada's advantage over this deal is that he's moving from a premium defensive position to third, instead of moving off third like Wigginton.

The Utility Players

Ramon Vasquez, Pittsburgh Pirates

Contract Details: 2 years, 4 million (09-1.75m, 10-2m)

Notes: There is a lot of Wigginton here too, as Vasquez wasn't as good offensively as Tejada nor was he as good defensively (comparatively, that is). Still, Vasquez landed a role with the Pirates and a reasonable contract. This reminds me too much of a Geoff Blum signing instead of what Tejada will fetch.

Mark Loretta, Los Angeles Dodgers

Contract Details: 1 year, 1.25 million

Notes: At this point in his career, Loretta was going to be nothing more than a valuable addition off the bench. His contract reflects this and though he could still play third base in a pinch (Loretta played 23 games in 2009), but this is more like the contract Tejada may get in two years.

The Outlier

Willie Bloomquist, Kansas City Royals

Contract Details: 2 years, 3.1 million (09-1.4m, 10-1.7m)

Notes: Remember when we were talking about Jose Valverde? And we saw all the crazy stuff that Dayton Moore has done? Fit the Bloomquist signing into that vein. The utility player with the Mariners was given a multi-year, multi-million dollar contract and played mostly in the outfield for the Royals. This was just a weird signing all around.

Non-Free Agents of Note

Edwin Encarnacion, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays

Contract Details: 2 years, 7.6 million (09-2m, 10-4.7m)

Notes: This starts a couple of third basemen who recently signed contracts, before they get to free agency. With Encarnacion, the Reds were simply buying out a couple of arbitration years, but the numbers fit into the overall picture of what Tejada could command. Interestingly enough, the Reds traded Encarnacion to the Blue Jays mid-season for Scott Rolen.

Chipper Jones, 3B, Atlanta Braves

Contract Details: 3 years, 42 million (10-13m, 11-13m, 12-13m, 13-7m option)

Notes: Jones is the outlier of all outliers, since he's a franchise icon in Atlanta and could end up in the Hall of Fame some day. The Braves couldn't have let Chipper walk out the door, but after flirting with .400, his leverage was very high to get a huge deal done. Thus, this three-year deal, averaging 13 million per. Was an aging player worth this? I'm not sure, but it's definitely going to be the contract Tejada's agent bases his sales pitches around.

Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Washington Nationals

Contract Details: 5 years, 45 million (09-3.325m, 10-6.25m, 11-8.925m, 12-12m, 13-14m)

Notes: Another deal which bought out part of Zimmerman's arbitration years. This also goes for Troy Tulowitski and Ryan Braun's new deals. Zimmerman got a nice bump and quite the salary security for the next five years.

The Breaking News

Jack Wilson, SS, Seattle Mariners

Contract Details: 2 years 10 million (10-5 million, 11-5 million)

Notes: Wilson avoided free agency by agreeing to a deal with the Mariners last Friday. Wilson is nowhere near the hitter Tejada is, posting a wOBA of .286, but is much better with the glove. The Mariners acquired Wilson midway through last season to replace the departed Yuniesky Betancourt. Wilson had an 8.4 million dollar option, which the Mariners didn't have to exercise by coming to terms with him on this deal. If a more one-dimensional player like Wilson can get an average of 5 million per year, it doesn't bode well for Tejada, who may be moved to a less premium defensive position.

Forecast for Tejada

Taking into account Buster Olney's latest comments from above and the market from last season, it's safe to assume Tejada will sign for somewhere around 7 million per year for two years. Some team may be willing to up that number to around 9 or 10 million, but only over one season. I could see the White Sox possibly making a move here, but I don't see Tejada getting more than a two year deal from anyone. Not at his age nor when he'd have to most likely move positions. It's also highly unlikely any team would commit serious money to him as a shortstop, but don't rule out the Royals.

Thursday Morning Astros, etc. Round Up: Michael Bourn's big day

DyingQuail — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 15:12:33 -0000

That's right ladies and gents, an Astros player took him some awards season hardware. I have to admit, I was a little suprised when my phone lit up with a text from HLP informing me that Michael Bourn had won himself a gold glove. Why? I don't know. It makes sense, but I guess I'm just used to Astros players not mattering in these sorts of things because they play for...well...the Astros.

Today is pretty much all about the big day that Bourn had, so let's break it down:

Excitingly enough, Richard Justice offers us this open invitation in his reaction to Bourn's Gold Glove:

The next time I judge a trade too soon, I want someone to stuff a large sock with Twinkies and smack me in my pretty face.

Ed Wade, as a favor to all of us, please make a trade this offseason. Please, please, please, please, please. Other than this tempting invitation that I will hold in my heart, Justice doesn't offer much of anything new.

Beyond the Box Score takes a look at who won the NL Gold Gloves and who should have based on bUZR plus FanScouting reports. Thankfully, they don't take issue with Bourn's Gold Glove, which would have rankled me. I think there were at least ten different occasions this season where we discussed how off Bourn's UZR seemed in comparison to what we were seeing. As clack noted yesterday, Bourn was among the best in RZR, and had an astounding 113 out of zone outs. It's that final number that I think demonstrates how great defensively Bourn is. It can't be easy playing CF in a park like MMP and covering for one of the worst LFers in MLB. Remarkably, Bourn does it, and does it well.

The Unofficial Scorer weighs in on a few subjects (even giving FarmStros some love), but I think he sums Bourn's Gold Glove the best of anything I've read on it yet (no offense, HLP):

Normally, I'm pretty statistically-minded, but I've come to trust [UZR] less and less, for measurements over any unit of time below careers. Bourn was right around zero for much of the season, and I really don't think my eyes were deceiving me on his true worth in the outfield.

Rounding out Michael Bourn's ego inflating day (seriously, what a day) was the announcement that he was voted as the team's MVP by the BWAA. Sure, I argued for Wandy Rodriguez, but I won't find any fault with this vote. HLP, I guess you were right.

What's particularly awesome about the awards (Wandy was pitcher of the year, Jeff Fulchino ROY—very deserving), was this:

Veteran right-hander Brian Moehler won the Darryl Kile Good Guy Award, which is given to a player who exhibits good character.

File that under random career accomplishments, but congrats nonetheless to Mr. Moehler.

Astros Roster Breakdown: The Starters

davoag — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 21:49:44 -0000

More photos » by Dino Vournas - AP

Roy Oswalt, in a rare good mood

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To lead off the starters section, I wanted to focus a little on Roy Oswalt. The soon-to-be 32-year old had his worst season as a professional, but was that a sign of aging and decline, or just a bump in the road?

His BABiP shows he wasn't unlucky in 2009 and was right in line with his career average. He also didn't throw more pitchers per plate appearance than he has in his career, while getting the most swinging strikes he's had since 2004. He did have a slight dip in his percentage of strikeouts that were looking, but since his swing and miss percentage didn't change, I think that was more statistical noise than anything.

You can't even blame injuries for hampering his stuff, because his fastball velocity was the same as it has been for the past few years. In fact, it actually ticked up a notch, but that's probably because of the only significant difference in his performance this season, a 5% drop in the number of fastballs he threw. Oswalt supplemented with more sliders and changeups. So, speed was not an issue...was something wrong with his movement? I wish I were smart enough to put together those cool scatter charts using the PitchF/X data, but I'm not there yet. I'd really like to see if he lost movement or late life on his fastball to determine if that's what the injuries robbed him of.

Other than possibly that, it appears his main problem may have been his attitude. Clashing so publicly and so often with Cecil Cooper, Roy just didn't give off the vibes of a guy playing his best. I'm sure he was playing his hardest, since he seems to have only one speed in that regard. But I wonder if he was mentally there this season. It's the one thing we can't really quantify, attitude.

Hear that, Brad Mills? Keep The Wizard happy next season and he'll bounce back.

Onto the rest of the starting rotation after the jump...

Roy Oswalt, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 8-6, 181 1/3 IP, 4.12 ERA, 30 GS, 19 HR, 138 strikeouts, 42 walks, 1.24 WHIP, 101 ERA+

FIP: 3.76

Average Game Score: 53

BABiP:.305

GB/FB: 1.21

Pitching Runs Created: 70

Notes: Since we've already talked about Roy-Boy's career trajectory, let's focus in on his 2009 season. Is this just the pitcher Roy is now? He struggled with getting any kind of decision all season, finishing with 16 non-decisions. His BABiP was right in line with normal luck, and he still got plenty of ground balls. The concerning part is his strikeout total, but as I said, that's been pretty steady for the past four seasons. His FIP shows he should have had a better ERA, but it would still have been his highest in his career. Roy was one of the main players disappointed in Cooper. Hopefully, he'll be motivated in 2010, because with Roy feeling right and Wandy pitching well, we will have a nice front end to the rotation. About that back end, though...

Wandy Rodriguez, LHP

2009 Season Stats: 14-12, 205 2/3 IP, 3.02 ERA, 33 GS, 21 HR, 193 strikeouts, 63 walks, 1.24 WHIP, 138 ERA+

FIP: 3.54

Average Game Score: 57

BABiP:.306

GB/FB: 1.21

Pitching Runs Created:100

Notes: Wandy was the best pitcher on the Astros staff last season. To put it in perspective, the difference between his and Roy's PRC was Mike Hampton. Maybe overly simple, but pretty amazing, no? Wandy's BABiP showed he wasn't just lucky to pitch this well and his strikeout total is very impressive, especially for a lefty. You'd like to see a few fewer walks, but that's just quibbling. The other interesting thing is his game scores. At 57, it was the highest of any of the starters and showed just how good he was game-to-game. His home/away splits were still very pronounced, though his strikeout rate was about the same. Two full runs of ERA though? For Wandy to take that next step to be an ace, he needs to perform better in road games.

Brian Moehler, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 8-12, 154 2/3 IP, 5.47 ERA, 29 GS, 21 HR, 91 strikeouts, 51 walks, 1.53 WHIP, 76 ERA+

FIP: 4.75

Average Game Score: 44

BABiP:.325

GB/FB: 1.25

Pitching Runs Created: 39

Notes: Moehler started the third-most games on the team last season. The trouble was, he did not perform like a third starter. Though his FIP was lower than his ERA and his BABiP meant he was a little unlucky, Moehler was more bad than good. His strikeouts and walks were both not where they should be. Though he had a good G/F ratio, his average game score shows he was a below league average starter in most of his outings. Much was made about a few of his starts at the beginning and end of the season blowing his ERA up too high. If you added 50 points to his total game score, he still would be well belew the the baseline. As a back-end starter? Moehler probably is useful, but will be recovering from a knee injury he had surgery on. Still, for 3 million? He's not a bad option.

Mike Hampton, LHP

2009 Season Stats: 7-10, 112 IP, 5.30 ERA, 21 GS, 13 HR, 74 strikeouts, 37 walks, 1.55 WHIP, 78 ERA+

FIP: 4.57

Average Game Score: 45

BABiP:.322

GB/FB: 1.78

Pitching Runs Created: 30

Notes: Hampy did just what we thought he'd do, getting a ton of ground balls and not really overpowering anyone. Oh, and getting hurt. He did that too. It's a little surprising Hampton gave up as many home runs as he did, but it did appear this experiment failed.

Felipe Paulino, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 3-11, 97 2/3 IP, 6.27 ERA, 17 GS, 20 HR, 93 strikeouts, 37 walks, 1.67 WHIP, 66 ERA+

FIP: 5.11

Average Game Score: 45

BABiP:.368

GB/FB: 1.08

Pitching Runs Created: 24

Notes: Obviously, anytime a hot, young prospect makes his debut and promptly posts a 6+ ERA, it's hard to be very excited. I still think his performance was somewhat affected by recovering from his 2008 injury, even if only slightly. His strikeouts numbers were great, though he gave up too many hits to win consistently. Paulino is too talented not to win more than three games next season, but it may take him a while to adjust. The Astros would pay more on the open market for a pitcher without nearly the upside of Paulino.

Russ Ortiz, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 3-6, 85 2/3 IP, 5.57 ERA, 13 GS, 8 HR, 65 strikeouts, 48 walks, 1.67 WHIP, 75 ERA+

FIP: 4.61

Average Game Score: 42

BABiP:.330

GB/FB: 1.62

Pitching Runs Created: 23

Notes: Ouch. The positives? Ortiz only gave up eight home runs and had a nice G/F ratio of 1.62. That's about it, though, as his nice start gave way to a rough time in the rotation. Ortiz wasn't as bad as his ERA indicated, but neither was he very good. He was hittable and probably was best as a swingman in the bullpen. He'll have to be that for some other team though, as I don't see the Astros bringing him back.

Bud Norris, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 6-3, 55 2/3 IP, 4.53 ERA, 10 GS, 54 strikeouts, 25 walks, 1.50 WHIP, 92 ERA+

FIP: 4.77

Average Game Score: 49

BABiP:.327

GB/FB: 0.87

Pitching Runs Created: 20

Notes: Norris had the most successful debut of any Astros rookie in 2009. He had some rough patches, obviously, but his average game score was still just a shade under average. He was a bit unlucky with his BABiP and gave up too many fly balls, but the strikeouts were there and the walks were minimized. I don't know whether he can get his control working well enough to be a permanent fixture in the rotation, but with his arm, he will have a place on the big league team for a while.

Yorman Bazardo, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 1-3, 32 IP, 7.88 ERA, 6 GS, 17 strikeouts, 22 walks, 1.84 WHIP, 53 ERA+

FIP: 5.00

Average Game Score: 34

BABiP:.323

GB/FB: 1.52

Pitching Runs Created:5

Notes: The Astros won a bidding war to sign Bazardo to a minor league deal in spring training. He joined with Bud Norris and, later, Polin Trinidad to form a potent rotation at Round Rock. Unfortunately, Bazardo may be the proverbial Quadruple-A guy. His strikeout rate has never been very good (5.3 K/9 in minor-league career), though he supplements that by not allowing too many walks. Bazardo does get a fair number of ground balls and his BABiP showed he was slightly unlucky in 2009. His ERA, though, doesn't really support the claim that his failure was all because of Tejada and Matsui. Bazardo should probably be given another shot, but he's a fringe fifth starter at most.

Wilton Lopez, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 0-2, 19 1/3 IP, 8.38 ERA, 2 GS, 9 strikeouts, 8 walks, 2.07 WHIP, 50 ERA+

FIP: 6.25

Average Game Score: 35

BABiP:.381

GB/FB: 2.32

Pitching Runs Created: 2

Notes: Lopez pitched eight games out of the bullpen, but did start two games, so he ended up in this list. A pickup from the Padres, Lopez pitched relatively well for Corpus Christi before getting a late-season callup. Lopez had a good ground ball rate for his limited sample size and his FIP was lower than his ERA (though neither were very good). He profiles as a guy who could hang around Triple-A and help the Astros out in a pinch, but I wouldn't count on him contributing much in 2009.

Brandon Backe, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 0-0, 13 IP, 10.38 ERA, 1 GS, 10 strikeouts, 6 walks, 2.08 WHIP, 40 ERA+

FIP: 7.94

Average Game Score: 41

BABiP:.375

GB/FB: 0.77

Pitching Runs Created: 2

Notes:You'll find no bigger fan of the Galveston native than me. Jeff Kent's home run to beat the Cards in 2004 wouldn't have been possible without Backe throwing a whale of a game. Unfortunately, that's all we got from him. Tantalizing glimpses at potential that never really panned out in the majors. Backe ran into a wall of injuries and ineffectiveness in 2009, refused a demotion to Triple-A and was released.

Fantasy Baseball: Looking at K/9 and GB%

raygu — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 14:35:11 -0000

Coming into my 2009 drafts, I found a very interesting article over at www.thebaseballanalysts.com which categorized pitchers by their K/9 and GB ratios. The importance of this for roto/fantasy owners is knowing how your pitchers get guys out. Pitchers with high K/9 and high GB ratios usually provide owners with very good win, ERA and WHIP stats, and they are the ones to target come draft day. The reason is they are getting guys out via the strikeout and inducing a high percentage of ground balls which more often than not results in an out. And ground balls don't leave the ballpark.

With that said, I provide you with the top 25 K/9 pitchers in 2009 with their corresponding GB ratios, along with some other advanced pitching stats, courtesy of www.fangraphs.com, after the jump:

Name	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	GB%	HR/9	AVG	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	ERA
Tim Lincecum	10.42	2.72	3.84	47.50%	0.4	0.209	1.05	0.297	75.90%	2.48
Justin Verlander	10.09	2.36	4.27	36.00%	0.75	0.244	1.18	0.328	72.70%	3.45
Jon Lester	9.96	2.83	3.52	47.70%	0.89	0.245	1.23	0.323	76.90%	3.41
Yovani Gallardo	9.89	4.56	2.17	45.00%	1.02	0.223	1.31	0.288	77.90%	3.73
Javier Vazquez	9.77	1.81	5.41	41.70%	0.82	0.226	1.03	0.297	76.60%	2.87
Jonathan Sanchez	9.75	4.85	2.01	40.70%	1.05	0.227	1.37	0.29	72.60%	4.24
Clayton Kershaw	9.74	4.79	2.03	39.40%	0.37	0.198	1.23	0.274	77.50%	2.79
Zack Greinke	9.5	2	4.75	40.00%	0.43	0.232	1.07	0.313	79.30%	2.16
Ricky Nolasco	9.49	2.14	4.43	38.30%	1.12	0.265	1.25	0.336	61.00%	5.06
Jorge de la Rosa	9.39	4.04	2.33	44.70%	0.97	0.248	1.38	0.316	71.60%	4.38
Max Scherzer	9.19	3.33	2.76	41.80%	1.06	0.257	1.34	0.323	68.70%	4.12
Dan Haren	8.75	1.49	5.87	42.90%	1.06	0.229	1	0.28	77.00%	3.14
A.J. Burnett	8.48	4.22	2.01	42.80%	1.09	0.248	1.4	0.302	75.90%	4.04
Wandy Rodriguez	8.45	2.76	3.06	44.90%	0.92	0.249	1.24	0.306	79.40%	3.02
Josh Beckett	8.43	2.33	3.62	47.20%	1.06	0.249	1.19	0.302	71.60%	3.86
Matt Garza	8.38	3.5	2.39	39.70%	1.11	0.236	1.26	0.284	75.00%	3.95
Josh Johnson	8.22	2.5	3.29	50.30%	0.6	0.238	1.16	0.299	74.90%	3.23
Chad Billingsley	8.21	3.94	2.08	45.30%	0.78	0.238	1.32	0.294	71.00%	4.03
Adam Wainwright	8.19	2.55	3.21	50.70%	0.66	0.247	1.21	0.309	80.40%	2.63
Felix Hernandez	8.18	2.68	3.06	53.40%	0.57	0.229	1.14	0.289	76.70%	2.49
Ubaldo Jimenez	8.17	3.51	2.33	52.50%	0.54	0.229	1.23	0.29	73.50%	3.47
Carlos Zambrano	8.08	4.15	1.95	44.70%	0.53	0.245	1.38	0.308	71.90%	3.77
Johan Santana	7.88	2.48	3.17	35.70%	1.08	0.249	1.21	0.296	78.00%	3.13
Aaron Harang	7.87	2.38	3.3	34.90%	1.33	0.289	1.41	0.339	75.70%	4.21
Roy Halladay	7.83	1.32	5.94	50.20%	0.83	0.258	1.13	0.313	79.00%	2.79

A couple takeaways from this analysis for me is that Jonathan Sanchez may be due for a breakout year in 2010 if he can continue pitching like he did in the seond half of 2009.

Another takeaway is I would be very afraid of drafting Johan_Santana in 2010 because you will have to spend a high draft pick or $25+ in roto leagues for a guy whose peripheral stats are taking a turn for the worse. His K/9 have decreased in each of the last 2 years, and his BB/9 and HR/9 have increased in the last 2 years.

A couple of Colorado Rockie pitchers broke out in 2009, and I am not sure we have seen the best of Ubaldo_Jimenez and Jorge De La Rosa yet. Both strikeout more than 8 batters per 9 innings, and induce ground balls at a pretty high rate in the case for Jiminez, and JDLR's GB ratio isn't that bad either. If they can increase their LOB% in 2010, they will make fantasy owners real happy.

Finally, I have already wrote about Ricky Nolasco, so I will move onto another pitcher whose peripherals scream that he could come cheap in 2010 drafts. That name is Max Scherzer, and he is an intriguing name, as he struck out more than 9 batters per 9 innings, and induced ground balls at a 42% clip in 2009. His LOB% was pretty low in 2009, so I expect a very solid season from Scherzer in 2010.

Poll

Who will get drafted first in 2010: Jonathan Sanchez or Max Scherzer?

Scherzer

57 votes

Sanchez

12 votes

69 votes | Poll has closed

Thursday Morning Astros, etc. Round Up

DyingQuail — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 14:32:09 -0000

More photos » by Brian Blanco - AP

If this man isn't our next manager....I might quit.

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As a warning, I'm three cups of coffee in, but still no closer to not hating the world for having me be awake, so my tone may be a bit jaded. C'est la vie, right?

I'm starting with the most interesting bit of information I managed to cull from my hunt for worthy links this morning. I broke my rule about putting JJO on a one month suspension for out pacing Justice as the Chronicle writer who most confused me as to how their mind let them at arrive at their conclusions. I'm glad that I did, though, because I came across this important piece of information:

Keep in mind, however, that unlike the other candidates, Garner, Clark and Pedrique don't need an introductory second interview with McLane to enter the finals.

Something to consider since there has been relatively little word from the front office as to who has advanced to the second round.

Probably not a good idea, given my state this AM, but I read Justice's latest entry after JJO. The Phil Garner love train, as conducted by Richard Justice, has officially come to halt it seems. Justice is now of the opinion that Acta is the front runner—though the important piece of why he suddenly thinks this was omitted from his article—and is now singing his praises:

He'd be excellent, but then so would Bob Melvin and Phil Garner. One thing Acta brings to the job is a history with the Astros. He spent 16 years with the franchise as a player and minor league manager. He once joked that he had a star for a heart. He had a terrible record during his time with the Nationals, but gained high marks for his strategic and communication skills.

Of the candidates we know that are left, it's Acta or bust for me. But I'm still confused as to how Justice just suddenly dropped Garner like he was hot. I know that there's a mention of Garner above, but in a week's time, Justice went from giving us Drayton's mailing address to pimp Garner, to mentioning him as virtual afterthought. That's weird, right?

OK, I can't even pretend like my ire at life didn't bias my selection today. Here's a line from McTaggart's latest blog entry that has been up for awhile, but I never read in depth. When I came across this line about Bogar's chances at becoming the next manager, I contemplated trying to start a riot outside of MMP:

Bogar is still young and up-and-coming, which could hurt his chances here. I think he's going to make a good manager someday, but the experience handling star players just isn't there.

Bogar, over the last few days, had become my new favorite, but now, ostensibly because he hadn't actually put on the manager's cap and handled star players, he wasn't brought back for a second interview. Is the man not in Boston's club house? Did he not spend last year watching BJ Upton? Could the Astros front office make me want to slam my head against a brick wall anymore? I mean just think of what the front office is depriving us of: the sheer comedy that could spring from Bogar's name if things went south for him...We brought back Garner over Bogar...I...but...damnit

Alright, I have one last Astros related link that rankles me, and then I'll stop with the vitriol. BtB released it's Power Ranking's based recap of the NL Central. Here's what was said of our Houston Astros:

Front office management has seemed genuinely dreadful to me since about the time of the Tejada trade, and it seems like, at this point, they're just playing out the string of time they have left with Berkman and Oswalt. Despite the emergence of Wandy Rodriguez into awesomeness this year (or maybe I just haven't been paying attention--his components are mostly unchanged since 2007), the pitching was just average. And at the same time, the fielding was below-average, as was the offense. A lot's been made of Berkman and his 25 homers...but he wasn't the problem with the offense. Replacement level performances from Blum, Matzui, and Rodriguez were the problem.

I'm a sabr-guy, but come on. Really? Wandy's performance this year wasn't legit? That's the implication. His xFIP since 2007 has been 4.29, 3.92, 3.66. His K/9 has increased each year, and his BB/9 went from 3.1 in 2007 to 2.9 in both 2008 and 2009. Watching him on the mound, he's clearly pitching from a different mindset. The entire BtB Power Rankings experience is now complete thanks to this recap. We can list this a example number 1034938772973084 of why it usually takes more than a cursory knowledge of a team to accurately report on them in this kind of a fashion.

Now for just two cool links [I do feel better having channeled my frustration with life on to others, thankfully]:

JC Bradbury provides some evidence that Dave Duncan just may definitively be a pitching genius.

A very cool op-ed style piece from StatSpeak writer PizzaCutter in a Fan Post over at BtB about the manger's utilization of small sample sizes for strategic decisions. It was by far the most enjoyable piece I read this morning.

Fantasy Baseball: 2009 FIP Leaders

raygu — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 13:00:23 -0000

by Gregory Smith - AP

Will Ricky Nolasco be undervalued in 2010?

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I know what you are asking-what the heck is FIP? According to The Hardball Times site, FIP is Fielding Independent Pitching, a measure of all those things for which a pitcher is specifically responsible. The formula is (HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)*3-K*2)/IP, plus a league-specific factor (usually around 3.2) to round out the number to an equivalent ERA number. FIP helps you understand how well a pitcher pitched, regardless of how well his fielders fielded.

With that explained, I give you the 2009 FIP leaders among starting pitchers courtesy of www.fangraphs.com:

Name	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	AVG	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP
Zack Greinke	9.5	2	4.75	0.43	0.232	1.07	0.313	79.30%	2.16	2.33
Tim Lincecum	10.42	2.72	3.84	0.4	0.209	1.05	0.297	75.90%	2.48	2.34
Javier Vazquez	9.77	1.81	5.41	0.82	0.226	1.03	0.297	76.60%	2.87	2.77
Chris Carpenter	6.73	1.78	3.79	0.33	0.223	1.01	0.272	79.50%	2.24	2.78
Justin Verlander	10.09	2.36	4.27	0.75	0.244	1.18	0.328	72.70%	3.45	2.8
Josh Johnson	8.22	2.5	3.29	0.6	0.238	1.16	0.299	74.90%	3.23	3.06
Roy Halladay	7.83	1.32	5.94	0.83	0.258	1.13	0.313	79.00%	2.79	3.06
Clayton Kershaw	9.74	4.79	2.03	0.37	0.198	1.23	0.274	77.50%	2.79	3.08
Felix Hernandez	8.18	2.68	3.06	0.57	0.229	1.14	0.289	76.70%	2.49	3.09
Cliff Lee	7.03	1.67	4.21	0.66	0.273	1.24	0.326	76.20%	3.22	3.11
Adam Wainwright	8.19	2.55	3.21	0.66	0.247	1.21	0.309	80.40%	2.63	3.11
Jon Lester	9.96	2.83	3.52	0.89	0.245	1.23	0.323	76.90%	3.41	3.15
Dan Haren	8.75	1.49	5.87	1.06	0.229	1	0.28	77.00%	3.14	3.23
Joel Pineiro	4.42	1.14	3.89	0.46	0.265	1.14	0.293	66.90%	3.49	3.27
Ricky Nolasco	9.49	2.14	4.43	1.12	0.265	1.25	0.336	61.00%	5.06	3.35
Ubaldo Jimenez	8.17	3.51	2.33	0.54	0.229	1.23	0.29	73.50%	3.47	3.36
CC Sabathia	7.71	2.62	2.94	0.7	0.233	1.15	0.284	71.40%	3.37	3.39
Wandy Rodriguez	8.45	2.76	3.06	0.92	0.249	1.24	0.306	79.40%	3.02	3.54
Carlos Zambrano	8.08	4.15	1.95	0.53	0.245	1.38	0.308	71.90%	3.77	3.61

One guy that stands out for me is Ricky Nolasco and his 5.06 ERA. Based on his outstanding peripherals, his FIP-3.35 is almost 2 runs lower than his ERA of 5.06. He will be someone to target on the cheap in 2010. His LOB% of 61%, or runners stranded, is extremely low and should increase in 2010, which will lower his ERA.

Joel Pineiro is another guy that stands out only for his low LOB% of 66.9%. His FIP wasn't much lower than his ERA, so I have to explain that is due to how low WHIP of 1.14.

Poll

Will Ricky Nolasco be undervalued in 2010?

Yes, his FIP and peripherals are still solid.

45 votes

No, he gives up too many hits with RISP.

6 votes

51 votes | Poll has closed

Thursday Rockpile: The Jim Tracy Conundrum

Rox Girl — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 16:09:01 -0000

More photos » by Jack Dempsey - AP

about 1 month ago: Colorado Rockies manager Jim Tracy, left, talks to second base umpire Tim Timmons about a call at second base, during the first inning against the Philadelphia Phillies of Game 4 in a National League baseball division series in Denver on Monday, Oct. 12, 2009. (AP Photo/Jack Dempsey)

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The Washington Post's Dave Sheinin wrote a piece titled "How Colorado Rockies manager Jim Tracy lost the Division Series", in which he goes hard after Tracy's decision to go after Ryan Howard with a right handed pitcher with the game on the line, which kind of left me disappointed in the article given that the Howard decision would rank a bit further down in my list of questionable moves by the Rockies manager during the divisional series.

I guess my biggest problem with the way Tracy managed the NLDS was how conservative he was. He seemed to me to be trying to manage not to lose rather than to win, and he has this odd double standard when it comes to certain players, particularly in this case Garrett Atkins and Ian Stewart. Tracy would keep on talking about getting the June Atkins back as if to say that one month of production from him outweighed the five other months of slow swinging and poor defensive work.

In particular, Tracy seemed to be nostalgic for a stretch in June, especially three games against Oakland and the Angels where Atkins had three multi-hit games. In fact, in June Atkins had five of his twelve multi-hit games of 2009. I wonder though, if Tracy really allows a selective memory to keep him from making wise judgments that are in the best interest of the team. If you take a look at the opposing starters for those June games that Atkins had multiple hits in, you see Dallas Braden, who averages 87.9 mph on his fastball, Trevor Cahill who averages 89.8 and Jason Vargas at 87.6. These are not exactly the kind of pitches you're going to see from Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee. Wandy Rodriguez was a decent pitcher at the start of this season, but in that June game, all the Rockies were hitting him well.

The one game where Atkins truly shined was a June 24th game against the Angels and Joe Saunders, in which he was pretty much the only Rockies player who seemed capable of getting solid contact. But if we're down to one game that's making you upend the lineup that got you to the playoffs in the first place (the Rockies were 62-47 in all Ian Stewart starts, 45-46 in all Atkins starts,) I've got to wonder whether you'll be able to make the right decisions for the team going forward. This isn't a situation as in the case of Yorvit Torrealba or in Los Angeles where Joe Torre is going with Ronnie Belliard over Orlando Hudson (a move against a popular veteran that I've got to say that I doubt Tracy makes) where a hot hand is forcing their way into the lineup. In September/October, Atkins only hit .233 with a .313 OBP. Stewart wasn't any better at the plate, but he is the better defender and a bigger threat to go deep and provide the team instant runs and the fact is that the Rockies seem to do better as a team with a Stew/Tulo/CarGo left side.

Really, that's a big lead in to my main issue. I really don't know if I want Jim Tracy back as manager next season. He's going to win the Manager of the Year award, he led the Rockies to the playoffs, but I really don't know if he understands how the Rockies won, and how it was mostly done without him. He's got to lay back off tweaking the lineup so much. He's got to understand when platoon splits should be made priorities (in the case of Howard) and when they shouldn't be given so much weight. Anyway, I suspect this might cause some discussion, what's everybody else's opinion?

Poll

Should manager Jim Tracy be extended by the Rockies?

Yes, he should be given a multi-year extension. Shut your trap, Rox Girl.

220 votes

Yes, but only conditionally, a one year extension is all I'm comfortable with.

158 votes

No. I agree, we can do better.

38 votes

416 votes | Poll has closed

Astros to target free agent pitcher?

Eli Greenspan — Sun, 11 Oct 2009 22:54:22 -0000

More photos » by Lenny Ignelzi - AP

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The Astros have some work to do this offseason, which starts with fortifying the pitching staff. The Astros made a statement firing Cecil Cooper, which should mean the Astros are looking to make some significant moves.

Jim Fregosi and Manny Acta are making headlines in the Astros managerial race, but several former managers are up for the spot as well. MLB asks teams to hold off on announcements during the World Series, so a move could be made in the next two weeks or not until next month.

For pitchers, the Astros need a proven veteran to slot between Roy Oswalt and Wandy Rodriguez. The Houston Chronicle names John Lackey as a possibility, who could sign a five year deal upwards of 75 million dollars.

With Jose Valverde and LaTroy Hawkins up for new contracts, the Astros are going to have spend even more to keep their staff intact.

The Astros could target free agent starter Justin Duchscherer, or even give Brad Penny a shot to crack the back end of the rotation. Both would be relatively inexpensive who could have a positive impact on the Astros' rotation.

Who do you think the Astros should target for the starting rotation?