SB Nation - Wandy Rodriguez

Astros Roster Breakdown: The Starters

davoag — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 21:49:44 -0000

More photos » by Dino Vournas - AP

Roy Oswalt, in a rare good mood

To lead off the starters section, I wanted to focus a little on Roy Oswalt. The soon-to-be 32-year old had his worst season as a professional, but was that a sign of aging and decline, or just a bump in the road?

His BABiP shows he wasn't unlucky in 2009 and was right in line with his career average. He also didn't throw more pitchers per plate appearance than he has in his career, while getting the most swinging strikes he's had since 2004. He did have a slight dip in his percentage of strikeouts that were looking, but since his swing and miss percentage didn't change, I think that was more statistical noise than anything.

You can't even blame injuries for hampering his stuff, because his fastball velocity was the same as it has been for the past few years. In fact, it actually ticked up a notch, but that's probably because of the only significant difference in his performance this season, a 5% drop in the number of fastballs he threw. Oswalt supplemented with more sliders and changeups. So, speed was not an issue...was something wrong with his movement? I wish I were smart enough to put together those cool scatter charts using the PitchF/X data, but I'm not there yet. I'd really like to see if he lost movement or late life on his fastball to determine if that's what the injuries robbed him of.

Other than possibly that, it appears his main problem may have been his attitude. Clashing so publicly and so often with Cecil Cooper, Roy just didn't give off the vibes of a guy playing his best. I'm sure he was playing his hardest, since he seems to have only one speed in that regard. But I wonder if he was mentally there this season. It's the one thing we can't really quantify, attitude.

Hear that, Brad Mills? Keep The Wizard happy next season and he'll bounce back.

Onto the rest of the starting rotation after the jump...

Roy Oswalt, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 8-6, 181 1/3 IP, 4.12 ERA, 30 GS, 19 HR, 138 strikeouts, 42 walks, 1.24 WHIP, 101 ERA+

FIP: 3.76

Average Game Score: 53

BABiP:.305

GB/FB: 1.21

Pitching Runs Created: 70

Notes: Since we've already talked about Roy-Boy's career trajectory, let's focus in on his 2009 season. Is this just the pitcher Roy is now? He struggled with getting any kind of decision all season, finishing with 16 non-decisions. His BABiP was right in line with normal luck, and he still got plenty of ground balls. The concerning part is his strikeout total, but as I said, that's been pretty steady for the past four seasons. His FIP shows he should have had a better ERA, but it would still have been his highest in his career. Roy was one of the main players disappointed in Cooper. Hopefully, he'll be motivated in 2010, because with Roy feeling right and Wandy pitching well, we will have a nice front end to the rotation. About that back end, though...

Wandy Rodriguez, LHP

2009 Season Stats: 14-12, 205 2/3 IP, 3.02 ERA, 33 GS, 21 HR, 193 strikeouts, 63 walks, 1.24 WHIP, 138 ERA+

FIP: 3.54

Average Game Score: 57

BABiP:.306

GB/FB: 1.21

Pitching Runs Created:100

Notes: Wandy was the best pitcher on the Astros staff last season. To put it in perspective, the difference between his and Roy's PRC was Mike Hampton. Maybe overly simple, but pretty amazing, no? Wandy's BABiP showed he wasn't just lucky to pitch this well and his strikeout total is very impressive, especially for a lefty. You'd like to see a few fewer walks, but that's just quibbling. The other interesting thing is his game scores. At 57, it was the highest of any of the starters and showed just how good he was game-to-game. His home/away splits were still very pronounced, though his strikeout rate was about the same. Two full runs of ERA though? For Wandy to take that next step to be an ace, he needs to perform better in road games.

Brian Moehler, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 8-12, 154 2/3 IP, 5.47 ERA, 29 GS, 21 HR, 91 strikeouts, 51 walks, 1.53 WHIP, 76 ERA+

FIP: 4.75

Average Game Score: 44

BABiP:.325

GB/FB: 1.25

Pitching Runs Created: 39

Notes: Moehler started the third-most games on the team last season. The trouble was, he did not perform like a third starter. Though his FIP was lower than his ERA and his BABiP meant he was a little unlucky, Moehler was more bad than good. His strikeouts and walks were both not where they should be. Though he had a good G/F ratio, his average game score shows he was a below league average starter in most of his outings. Much was made about a few of his starts at the beginning and end of the season blowing his ERA up too high. If you added 50 points to his total game score, he still would be well belew the the baseline. As a back-end starter? Moehler probably is useful, but will be recovering from a knee injury he had surgery on. Still, for 3 million? He's not a bad option.

Mike Hampton, LHP

2009 Season Stats: 7-10, 112 IP, 5.30 ERA, 21 GS, 13 HR, 74 strikeouts, 37 walks, 1.55 WHIP, 78 ERA+

FIP: 4.57

Average Game Score: 45

BABiP:.322

GB/FB: 1.78

Pitching Runs Created: 30

Notes: Hampy did just what we thought he'd do, getting a ton of ground balls and not really overpowering anyone. Oh, and getting hurt. He did that too. It's a little surprising Hampton gave up as many home runs as he did, but it did appear this experiment failed.

Felipe Paulino, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 3-11, 97 2/3 IP, 6.27 ERA, 17 GS, 20 HR, 93 strikeouts, 37 walks, 1.67 WHIP, 66 ERA+

FIP: 5.11

Average Game Score: 45

BABiP:.368

GB/FB: 1.08

Pitching Runs Created: 24

Notes: Obviously, anytime a hot, young prospect makes his debut and promptly posts a 6+ ERA, it's hard to be very excited. I still think his performance was somewhat affected by recovering from his 2008 injury, even if only slightly. His strikeouts numbers were great, though he gave up too many hits to win consistently. Paulino is too talented not to win more than three games next season, but it may take him a while to adjust. The Astros would pay more on the open market for a pitcher without nearly the upside of Paulino.

Russ Ortiz, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 3-6, 85 2/3 IP, 5.57 ERA, 13 GS, 8 HR, 65 strikeouts, 48 walks, 1.67 WHIP, 75 ERA+

FIP: 4.61

Average Game Score: 42

BABiP:.330

GB/FB: 1.62

Pitching Runs Created: 23

Notes: Ouch. The positives? Ortiz only gave up eight home runs and had a nice G/F ratio of 1.62. That's about it, though, as his nice start gave way to a rough time in the rotation. Ortiz wasn't as bad as his ERA indicated, but neither was he very good. He was hittable and probably was best as a swingman in the bullpen. He'll have to be that for some other team though, as I don't see the Astros bringing him back.

Bud Norris, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 6-3, 55 2/3 IP, 4.53 ERA, 10 GS, 54 strikeouts, 25 walks, 1.50 WHIP, 92 ERA+

FIP: 4.77

Average Game Score: 49

BABiP:.327

GB/FB: 0.87

Pitching Runs Created: 20

Notes: Norris had the most successful debut of any Astros rookie in 2009. He had some rough patches, obviously, but his average game score was still just a shade under average. He was a bit unlucky with his BABiP and gave up too many fly balls, but the strikeouts were there and the walks were minimized. I don't know whether he can get his control working well enough to be a permanent fixture in the rotation, but with his arm, he will have a place on the big league team for a while.

Yorman Bazardo, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 1-3, 32 IP, 7.88 ERA, 6 GS, 17 strikeouts, 22 walks, 1.84 WHIP, 53 ERA+

FIP: 5.00

Average Game Score: 34

BABiP:.323

GB/FB: 1.52

Pitching Runs Created:5

Notes: The Astros won a bidding war to sign Bazardo to a minor league deal in spring training. He joined with Bud Norris and, later, Polin Trinidad to form a potent rotation at Round Rock. Unfortunately, Bazardo may be the proverbial Quadruple-A guy. His strikeout rate has never been very good (5.3 K/9 in minor-league career), though he supplements that by not allowing too many walks. Bazardo does get a fair number of ground balls and his BABiP showed he was slightly unlucky in 2009. His ERA, though, doesn't really support the claim that his failure was all because of Tejada and Matsui. Bazardo should probably be given another shot, but he's a fringe fifth starter at most.

Wilton Lopez, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 0-2, 19 1/3 IP, 8.38 ERA, 2 GS, 9 strikeouts, 8 walks, 2.07 WHIP, 50 ERA+

FIP: 6.25

Average Game Score: 35

BABiP:.381

GB/FB: 2.32

Pitching Runs Created: 2

Notes: Lopez pitched eight games out of the bullpen, but did start two games, so he ended up in this list. A pickup from the Padres, Lopez pitched relatively well for Corpus Christi before getting a late-season callup. Lopez had a good ground ball rate for his limited sample size and his FIP was lower than his ERA (though neither were very good). He profiles as a guy who could hang around Triple-A and help the Astros out in a pinch, but I wouldn't count on him contributing much in 2009.

Brandon Backe, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 0-0, 13 IP, 10.38 ERA, 1 GS, 10 strikeouts, 6 walks, 2.08 WHIP, 40 ERA+

FIP: 7.94

Average Game Score: 41

BABiP:.375

GB/FB: 0.77

Pitching Runs Created: 2

Notes:You'll find no bigger fan of the Galveston native than me. Jeff Kent's home run to beat the Cards in 2004 wouldn't have been possible without Backe throwing a whale of a game. Unfortunately, that's all we got from him. Tantalizing glimpses at potential that never really panned out in the majors. Backe ran into a wall of injuries and ineffectiveness in 2009, refused a demotion to Triple-A and was released.

Fantasy Baseball: Looking at K/9 and GB%

raygu — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 14:35:11 -0000

Coming into my 2009 drafts, I found a very interesting article over at www.thebaseballanalysts.com which categorized pitchers by their K/9 and GB ratios. The importance of this for roto/fantasy owners is knowing how your pitchers get guys out. Pitchers with high K/9 and high GB ratios usually provide owners with very good win, ERA and WHIP stats, and they are the ones to target come draft day. The reason is they are getting guys out via the strikeout and inducing a high percentage of ground balls which more often than not results in an out. And ground balls don't leave the ballpark.

With that said, I provide you with the top 25 K/9 pitchers in 2009 with their corresponding GB ratios, along with some other advanced pitching stats, courtesy of www.fangraphs.com, after the jump:

Name	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	GB%	HR/9	AVG	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	ERA
Tim Lincecum	10.42	2.72	3.84	47.50%	0.4	0.209	1.05	0.297	75.90%	2.48
Justin Verlander	10.09	2.36	4.27	36.00%	0.75	0.244	1.18	0.328	72.70%	3.45
Jon Lester	9.96	2.83	3.52	47.70%	0.89	0.245	1.23	0.323	76.90%	3.41
Yovani Gallardo	9.89	4.56	2.17	45.00%	1.02	0.223	1.31	0.288	77.90%	3.73
Javier Vazquez	9.77	1.81	5.41	41.70%	0.82	0.226	1.03	0.297	76.60%	2.87
Jonathan Sanchez	9.75	4.85	2.01	40.70%	1.05	0.227	1.37	0.29	72.60%	4.24
Clayton Kershaw	9.74	4.79	2.03	39.40%	0.37	0.198	1.23	0.274	77.50%	2.79
Zack Greinke	9.5	2	4.75	40.00%	0.43	0.232	1.07	0.313	79.30%	2.16
Ricky Nolasco	9.49	2.14	4.43	38.30%	1.12	0.265	1.25	0.336	61.00%	5.06
Jorge de la Rosa	9.39	4.04	2.33	44.70%	0.97	0.248	1.38	0.316	71.60%	4.38
Max Scherzer	9.19	3.33	2.76	41.80%	1.06	0.257	1.34	0.323	68.70%	4.12
Dan Haren	8.75	1.49	5.87	42.90%	1.06	0.229	1	0.28	77.00%	3.14
A.J. Burnett	8.48	4.22	2.01	42.80%	1.09	0.248	1.4	0.302	75.90%	4.04
Wandy Rodriguez	8.45	2.76	3.06	44.90%	0.92	0.249	1.24	0.306	79.40%	3.02
Josh Beckett	8.43	2.33	3.62	47.20%	1.06	0.249	1.19	0.302	71.60%	3.86
Matt Garza	8.38	3.5	2.39	39.70%	1.11	0.236	1.26	0.284	75.00%	3.95
Josh Johnson	8.22	2.5	3.29	50.30%	0.6	0.238	1.16	0.299	74.90%	3.23
Chad Billingsley	8.21	3.94	2.08	45.30%	0.78	0.238	1.32	0.294	71.00%	4.03
Adam Wainwright	8.19	2.55	3.21	50.70%	0.66	0.247	1.21	0.309	80.40%	2.63
Felix Hernandez	8.18	2.68	3.06	53.40%	0.57	0.229	1.14	0.289	76.70%	2.49
Ubaldo Jimenez	8.17	3.51	2.33	52.50%	0.54	0.229	1.23	0.29	73.50%	3.47
Carlos Zambrano	8.08	4.15	1.95	44.70%	0.53	0.245	1.38	0.308	71.90%	3.77
Johan Santana	7.88	2.48	3.17	35.70%	1.08	0.249	1.21	0.296	78.00%	3.13
Aaron Harang	7.87	2.38	3.3	34.90%	1.33	0.289	1.41	0.339	75.70%	4.21
Roy Halladay	7.83	1.32	5.94	50.20%	0.83	0.258	1.13	0.313	79.00%	2.79

A couple takeaways from this analysis for me is that Jonathan Sanchez may be due for a breakout year in 2010 if he can continue pitching like he did in the seond half of 2009.

Another takeaway is I would be very afraid of drafting Johan_Santana in 2010 because you will have to spend a high draft pick or $25+ in roto leagues for a guy whose peripheral stats are taking a turn for the worse. His K/9 have decreased in each of the last 2 years, and his BB/9 and HR/9 have increased in the last 2 years.

A couple of Colorado Rockie pitchers broke out in 2009, and I am not sure we have seen the best of Ubaldo_Jimenez and Jorge De La Rosa yet. Both strikeout more than 8 batters per 9 innings, and induce ground balls at a pretty high rate in the case for Jiminez, and JDLR's GB ratio isn't that bad either. If they can increase their LOB% in 2010, they will make fantasy owners real happy.

Finally, I have already wrote about Ricky Nolasco, so I will move onto another pitcher whose peripherals scream that he could come cheap in 2010 drafts. That name is Max Scherzer, and he is an intriguing name, as he struck out more than 9 batters per 9 innings, and induced ground balls at a 42% clip in 2009. His LOB% was pretty low in 2009, so I expect a very solid season from Scherzer in 2010.

Poll

Who will get drafted first in 2010: Jonathan Sanchez or Max Scherzer?

Scherzer

57 votes

Sanchez

12 votes

69 votes | Poll has closed

Thursday Morning Astros, etc. Round Up

DyingQuail — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 14:32:09 -0000

More photos » by Brian Blanco - AP

If this man isn't our next manager....I might quit.

Browse more photos »

As a warning, I'm three cups of coffee in, but still no closer to not hating the world for having me be awake, so my tone may be a bit jaded. C'est la vie, right?

I'm starting with the most interesting bit of information I managed to cull from my hunt for worthy links this morning. I broke my rule about putting JJO on a one month suspension for out pacing Justice as the Chronicle writer who most confused me as to how their mind let them at arrive at their conclusions. I'm glad that I did, though, because I came across this important piece of information:

Keep in mind, however, that unlike the other candidates, Garner, Clark and Pedrique don't need an introductory second interview with McLane to enter the finals.

Something to consider since there has been relatively little word from the front office as to who has advanced to the second round.

Probably not a good idea, given my state this AM, but I read Justice's latest entry after JJO. The Phil Garner love train, as conducted by Richard Justice, has officially come to halt it seems. Justice is now of the opinion that Acta is the front runner—though the important piece of why he suddenly thinks this was omitted from his article—and is now singing his praises:

He'd be excellent, but then so would Bob Melvin and Phil Garner. One thing Acta brings to the job is a history with the Astros. He spent 16 years with the franchise as a player and minor league manager. He once joked that he had a star for a heart. He had a terrible record during his time with the Nationals, but gained high marks for his strategic and communication skills.

Of the candidates we know that are left, it's Acta or bust for me. But I'm still confused as to how Justice just suddenly dropped Garner like he was hot. I know that there's a mention of Garner above, but in a week's time, Justice went from giving us Drayton's mailing address to pimp Garner, to mentioning him as virtual afterthought. That's weird, right?

OK, I can't even pretend like my ire at life didn't bias my selection today. Here's a line from McTaggart's latest blog entry that has been up for awhile, but I never read in depth. When I came across this line about Bogar's chances at becoming the next manager, I contemplated trying to start a riot outside of MMP:

Bogar is still young and up-and-coming, which could hurt his chances here. I think he's going to make a good manager someday, but the experience handling star players just isn't there.

Bogar, over the last few days, had become my new favorite, but now, ostensibly because he hadn't actually put on the manager's cap and handled star players, he wasn't brought back for a second interview. Is the man not in Boston's club house? Did he not spend last year watching BJ Upton? Could the Astros front office make me want to slam my head against a brick wall anymore? I mean just think of what the front office is depriving us of: the sheer comedy that could spring from Bogar's name if things went south for him...We brought back Garner over Bogar...I...but...damnit

Alright, I have one last Astros related link that rankles me, and then I'll stop with the vitriol. BtB released it's Power Ranking's based recap of the NL Central. Here's what was said of our Houston Astros:

Front office management has seemed genuinely dreadful to me since about the time of the Tejada trade, and it seems like, at this point, they're just playing out the string of time they have left with Berkman and Oswalt. Despite the emergence of Wandy Rodriguez into awesomeness this year (or maybe I just haven't been paying attention--his components are mostly unchanged since 2007), the pitching was just average. And at the same time, the fielding was below-average, as was the offense. A lot's been made of Berkman and his 25 homers...but he wasn't the problem with the offense. Replacement level performances from Blum, Matzui, and Rodriguez were the problem.

I'm a sabr-guy, but come on. Really? Wandy's performance this year wasn't legit? That's the implication. His xFIP since 2007 has been 4.29, 3.92, 3.66. His K/9 has increased each year, and his BB/9 went from 3.1 in 2007 to 2.9 in both 2008 and 2009. Watching him on the mound, he's clearly pitching from a different mindset. The entire BtB Power Rankings experience is now complete thanks to this recap. We can list this a example number 1034938772973084 of why it usually takes more than a cursory knowledge of a team to accurately report on them in this kind of a fashion.

Now for just two cool links [I do feel better having channeled my frustration with life on to others, thankfully]:

JC Bradbury provides some evidence that Dave Duncan just may definitively be a pitching genius.

A very cool op-ed style piece from StatSpeak writer PizzaCutter in a Fan Post over at BtB about the manger's utilization of small sample sizes for strategic decisions. It was by far the most enjoyable piece I read this morning.

Fantasy Baseball: 2009 FIP Leaders

raygu — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 13:00:23 -0000

by Gregory Smith - AP

Will Ricky Nolasco be undervalued in 2010?

View full size photo »

I know what you are asking-what the heck is FIP? According to The Hardball Times site, FIP is Fielding Independent Pitching, a measure of all those things for which a pitcher is specifically responsible. The formula is (HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)*3-K*2)/IP, plus a league-specific factor (usually around 3.2) to round out the number to an equivalent ERA number. FIP helps you understand how well a pitcher pitched, regardless of how well his fielders fielded.

With that explained, I give you the 2009 FIP leaders among starting pitchers courtesy of www.fangraphs.com:

Name	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	AVG	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP
Zack Greinke	9.5	2	4.75	0.43	0.232	1.07	0.313	79.30%	2.16	2.33
Tim Lincecum	10.42	2.72	3.84	0.4	0.209	1.05	0.297	75.90%	2.48	2.34
Javier Vazquez	9.77	1.81	5.41	0.82	0.226	1.03	0.297	76.60%	2.87	2.77
Chris Carpenter	6.73	1.78	3.79	0.33	0.223	1.01	0.272	79.50%	2.24	2.78
Justin Verlander	10.09	2.36	4.27	0.75	0.244	1.18	0.328	72.70%	3.45	2.8
Josh Johnson	8.22	2.5	3.29	0.6	0.238	1.16	0.299	74.90%	3.23	3.06
Roy Halladay	7.83	1.32	5.94	0.83	0.258	1.13	0.313	79.00%	2.79	3.06
Clayton Kershaw	9.74	4.79	2.03	0.37	0.198	1.23	0.274	77.50%	2.79	3.08
Felix Hernandez	8.18	2.68	3.06	0.57	0.229	1.14	0.289	76.70%	2.49	3.09
Cliff Lee	7.03	1.67	4.21	0.66	0.273	1.24	0.326	76.20%	3.22	3.11
Adam Wainwright	8.19	2.55	3.21	0.66	0.247	1.21	0.309	80.40%	2.63	3.11
Jon Lester	9.96	2.83	3.52	0.89	0.245	1.23	0.323	76.90%	3.41	3.15
Dan Haren	8.75	1.49	5.87	1.06	0.229	1	0.28	77.00%	3.14	3.23
Joel Pineiro	4.42	1.14	3.89	0.46	0.265	1.14	0.293	66.90%	3.49	3.27
Ricky Nolasco	9.49	2.14	4.43	1.12	0.265	1.25	0.336	61.00%	5.06	3.35
Ubaldo Jimenez	8.17	3.51	2.33	0.54	0.229	1.23	0.29	73.50%	3.47	3.36
CC Sabathia	7.71	2.62	2.94	0.7	0.233	1.15	0.284	71.40%	3.37	3.39
Wandy Rodriguez	8.45	2.76	3.06	0.92	0.249	1.24	0.306	79.40%	3.02	3.54
Carlos Zambrano	8.08	4.15	1.95	0.53	0.245	1.38	0.308	71.90%	3.77	3.61

One guy that stands out for me is Ricky Nolasco and his 5.06 ERA. Based on his outstanding peripherals, his FIP-3.35 is almost 2 runs lower than his ERA of 5.06. He will be someone to target on the cheap in 2010. His LOB% of 61%, or runners stranded, is extremely low and should increase in 2010, which will lower his ERA.

Joel Pineiro is another guy that stands out only for his low LOB% of 66.9%. His FIP wasn't much lower than his ERA, so I have to explain that is due to how low WHIP of 1.14.

Poll

Will Ricky Nolasco be undervalued in 2010?

Yes, his FIP and peripherals are still solid.

45 votes

No, he gives up too many hits with RISP.

6 votes

51 votes | Poll has closed

Thursday Rockpile: The Jim Tracy Conundrum

Rox Girl — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 16:09:01 -0000

More photos » by Jack Dempsey - AP

29 days ago: Colorado Rockies manager Jim Tracy, left, talks to second base umpire Tim Timmons about a call at second base, during the first inning against the Philadelphia Phillies of Game 4 in a National League baseball division series in Denver on Monday, Oct. 12, 2009. (AP Photo/Jack Dempsey)

Browse more photos »

The Washington Post's Dave Sheinin wrote a piece titled "How Colorado Rockies manager Jim Tracy lost the Division Series", in which he goes hard after Tracy's decision to go after Ryan Howard with a right handed pitcher with the game on the line, which kind of left me disappointed in the article given that the Howard decision would rank a bit further down in my list of questionable moves by the Rockies manager during the divisional series.

I guess my biggest problem with the way Tracy managed the NLDS was how conservative he was. He seemed to me to be trying to manage not to lose rather than to win, and he has this odd double standard when it comes to certain players, particularly in this case Garrett Atkins and Ian Stewart. Tracy would keep on talking about getting the June Atkins back as if to say that one month of production from him outweighed the five other months of slow swinging and poor defensive work.

In particular, Tracy seemed to be nostalgic for a stretch in June, especially three games against Oakland and the Angels where Atkins had three multi-hit games. In fact, in June Atkins had five of his twelve multi-hit games of 2009. I wonder though, if Tracy really allows a selective memory to keep him from making wise judgments that are in the best interest of the team. If you take a look at the opposing starters for those June games that Atkins had multiple hits in, you see Dallas Braden, who averages 87.9 mph on his fastball, Trevor Cahill who averages 89.8 and Jason Vargas at 87.6. These are not exactly the kind of pitches you're going to see from Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee. Wandy Rodriguez was a decent pitcher at the start of this season, but in that June game, all the Rockies were hitting him well.

The one game where Atkins truly shined was a June 24th game against the Angels and Joe Saunders, in which he was pretty much the only Rockies player who seemed capable of getting solid contact. But if we're down to one game that's making you upend the lineup that got you to the playoffs in the first place (the Rockies were 62-47 in all Ian Stewart starts, 45-46 in all Atkins starts,) I've got to wonder whether you'll be able to make the right decisions for the team going forward. This isn't a situation as in the case of Yorvit Torrealba or in Los Angeles where Joe Torre is going with Ronnie Belliard over Orlando Hudson (a move against a popular veteran that I've got to say that I doubt Tracy makes) where a hot hand is forcing their way into the lineup. In September/October, Atkins only hit .233 with a .313 OBP. Stewart wasn't any better at the plate, but he is the better defender and a bigger threat to go deep and provide the team instant runs and the fact is that the Rockies seem to do better as a team with a Stew/Tulo/CarGo left side.

Really, that's a big lead in to my main issue. I really don't know if I want Jim Tracy back as manager next season. He's going to win the Manager of the Year award, he led the Rockies to the playoffs, but I really don't know if he understands how the Rockies won, and how it was mostly done without him. He's got to lay back off tweaking the lineup so much. He's got to understand when platoon splits should be made priorities (in the case of Howard) and when they shouldn't be given so much weight. Anyway, I suspect this might cause some discussion, what's everybody else's opinion?

Poll

Should manager Jim Tracy be extended by the Rockies?

Yes, he should be given a multi-year extension. Shut your trap, Rox Girl.

220 votes

Yes, but only conditionally, a one year extension is all I'm comfortable with.

158 votes

No. I agree, we can do better.

38 votes

416 votes | Poll has closed

Astros to target free agent pitcher?

Eli Greenspan — Sun, 11 Oct 2009 22:54:22 -0000

More photos » by Lenny Ignelzi - AP

Browse more photos »

The Astros have some work to do this offseason, which starts with fortifying the pitching staff. The Astros made a statement firing Cecil Cooper, which should mean the Astros are looking to make some significant moves.

Jim Fregosi and Manny Acta are making headlines in the Astros managerial race, but several former managers are up for the spot as well. MLB asks teams to hold off on announcements during the World Series, so a move could be made in the next two weeks or not until next month.

For pitchers, the Astros need a proven veteran to slot between Roy Oswalt and Wandy Rodriguez. The Houston Chronicle names John Lackey as a possibility, who could sign a five year deal upwards of 75 million dollars.

With Jose Valverde and LaTroy Hawkins up for new contracts, the Astros are going to have spend even more to keep their staff intact.

The Astros could target free agent starter Justin Duchscherer, or even give Brad Penny a shot to crack the back end of the rotation. Both would be relatively inexpensive who could have a positive impact on the Astros' rotation.

Who do you think the Astros should target for the starting rotation?

Fantasy Baseball: NL Sub-3.50 ERA Leaderboard

raygu — Sat, 10 Oct 2009 20:31:15 -0000

More photos » by Denis Poroy - AP

2 months ago: FILE - In this Aug. 9, 2009, file photo, New York Mets pitcher Johan Santana delivers during the first inning of a baseball game against the San Diego Padres in San Diego. The Mets said Tuesday, Aug. 25, 2009, that Santana will have arthroscopic surgery to clean up bone chips in his left elbow. They said he will be out for the season, but is expected to ready for spring training next year. (AP Photo/Denis Poroy, File)

Browse more photos »

When entering a draft, everyone wants that stud starting pitcher who will not only get them double digit wins, but also a solid ERA and WHIP and a mess of strikeouts. Today I look at the NL leaders in ERA, focusing on the starting pitchers who gave you a sub-3.50 ERA. What you will notice is these pitchers also gave you solid WHIP figures.

Let's take a look after the jump:

Player	INN	GS	QS	CG	W	L	K	BB	ERA	WHIP	K/BB
Carpenter, Chris SP STL	193	28	22	3	17	4	144	38	2.24	1.01	3.789
Lincecum, Tim SP SF	225	32	26	4	15	7	261	68	2.48	1.05	3.838
Jurrjens, Jair SP ATL	215	34	25	0	14	10	152	75	2.60	1.21	2.027
Wainwright, Adam SP STL	233	34	25	1	19	8	212	66	2.63	1.21	3.212
Kershaw, Clayton SP LA	171	30	16	0	8	8	185	91	2.79	1.23	2.033
Vazquez, Javier SP ATL	219	32	22	3	15	10	238	44	2.87	1.03	5.409
Cain, Matt SP SF	218	33	20	4	14	8	171	73	2.89	1.18	2.342
Hanson, Tommy SP ATL	128	21	12	0	11	4	116	46	2.89	1.18	2.522
Happ, J.A. SP PHI	166	23	14	3	12	4	119	56	2.93	1.23	2.125
Rodriguez, Wandy SP HOU	206	33	23	1	14	12	193	63	3.02	1.24	3.063
Santana, Johan SP NYM	167	25	17	0	13	9	146	46	3.13	1.21	3.174
Haren, Dan SP ARI	229	33	24	3	14	10	223	38	3.14	1.00	5.868
Lee, Cliff SP PHI	232	34	24	6	14	13	181	43	3.22	1.24	4.209
Wolf, Randy SP LA	214	34	24	0	11	7	160	58	3.23	1.10	2.759
Johnson, Josh SP FLA	209	33	23	2	15	5	191	58	3.23	1.16	3.293
Jimenez, Ubaldo SP COL	218	33	24	1	15	12	198	85	3.47	1.23	2.329
Pineiro, Joel SP STL	214	32	21	3	15	12	105	27	3.49	1.14	3.889

A handful of these guys were probably not on many drafters radar at their 2009 drafts including Clayton Kershaw, J.A. Happ, Randy Wolf, and Joel Pineiro, but they all gave you solid performance throughout the year. Everybody on this list, with the exception of Kershaw, gave you double digit wins as well. Take out Wolf, Tommy Hanson and J.A. Happ, and they all gave you 13 wins or more.

All except Pineiro, Happ and Carpenter gave you sold strikeout totals for those in 5x5 leagues. Hanson gave you 116 K's in 128 innings, so he could breach the 200 K level in 2010 if he can make 30 starts.

I am curious of Johan Santana is a top 5 starting pitcher in NL leagues in 2010?

Poll

Is Johan Santana a top 5 starting pitcher in 2010 NL-only leagues drafts in 2010?

Yes, he can win the Cy Young with a healthy team behind him

41 votes

No, too much risk in that arm

26 votes

67 votes | Poll has closed

This is way the Astros season ends: Not with a bang, but a whimper

DyingQuail — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 12:58:48 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

My feelings exactly, Aaron.

Browse more photos »

I've done pretty much anything but think about the Astros today. There were too many mixed emotions to sort through; too many other tantalizing distractions to latch onto. I've watched a dismal Fantasy Football day crush my spirits, the Texans look weak in the second half against the Oakland Raiders, talked HLP down from the ledge as he fretted about his ability to clinch our rotisserie keeper-league (he did, Congrats buddy, you earned it).

I didn't even watch the Astros game. I couldn't.

I saw the standard tweets about it on my desktop client (Tweetie) and that was enough depression for me. The most critical thinking I could bring myself to do about the Astros was a few expletive deleted texts and about five minutes worth of phone conversation between HLP and myself. I don't know why it is that I feel this way, or I have felt this way for the last few weeks, but I think the catharsis of knowing that it's over has finally allowed me to snap out of my funk.

I can still remember when the glimmer of hope I had for this season was born. BtB's Sky Kalkman emailed me the spreadsheet for his Community Projection Project and I rushed to input all the projections. Without any fan embellishment, we were something like an 80 win team. It was late December and I was shocked. Flabbergasted. Almost afraid to actually publish the result publically. I probably wrote about seven drafts of an email I never sent Sky explaining—politely—that I thought his spreadsheet was broken.

We spent the next few weeks tweaking and refining the inputs and suddenly we were an 82 win team. Then in late March Ivan Rodriguez and Jeff Keppinger landed in Houston and we quickly became an 83 win team. There was probably inflation, but a .500 season seemed realistic, and there were all the variables in place to allow for some kind of meaningful and exciting season to get underway.

April and May saw the NL Central become a smorgasbord of stories that had thrown the conventional off-season predications of how the Central would play out, out. Yet the Astros struggled for most of it and seemed destined to be mired in irrelevancy, even as opportunity knocked. I managed to avoid excess worry and pessimism during this stretch by being wrapped up in graduating from college and then not living like a member of the real world for the next month (that month will easily go down as the most enjoyable month of my life). Perhaps that's what insulated my glimmer of hope and kept me set up for the inexorable Astros-depression that has plagued me as of late (does semi-ignorance count as denial?)

June arrived and the Astros were quietly good. The responsibility of covering the team on a daily basis allowed for me to be slow to notice the fact that the Astros were stringing together victories and closing ground in the Central. So it was a very plesant surprise when I finally allowed myself to consider the possibility of the Astros becoming...contenders(?!).

By the time the All-Star break was upon us, I don't think that there were many of us who weren't starting to harbor something akin to excitement. When we opened the second half by splitting the series with the Dodgers, I'd say most of us were starting to place ourselves in the camp of believers. I know I was.

Sure, there was a mountain of statistical evidence based on macro-level measures that could demonstrate how the Astros couldn't possibly succeed, but we saw a different picture. We saw a team that had been felled by Jose Valverde's monstrously wicked calf strain, Roy Oswalt's post-WBC inconsistency, and Lance Berkman's weird odd-year-early-season-under-perfomance. We were buoyed along by the fact that Wandy, in spite of his two weeks of HR/FB regression, was pitching consistently and finally living up to all of our hopes. There was Bud Norris tilling the farm in the PCL with a low 2.00 ERA and thus the hope that our rotation could only get better—not worse.

This all led to what I'll consider to be the peak of the Astros 2009 Season: July 20th-22nd. The NL Central leading Cardinals were going to be at MMP and the Astros had quite the opportunity on their hands. Prior to the Astros three game sweep of the Cards, I wrote the following:

Unlike previous years when the Astros and their fans had to hope and pray throughout the month of September that other teams would drop the ball while the Astros took care of other opponents, the Astros will be firmly in the drivers seat this time around from July 20th on...

...I consider this series to be the keynote address to how the Astros will handle the opportunity they're presented. They're only real opponent is themselves. This is a division, and even an Wild Card race, that has proven to be anything but decided ninety plus games into the season. So the Astros, flawed as they are, have legs to stand on in the search for October baseball, but we've all yet to figure out is how sturdy those legs ar e.

As we all know, the legs weren't that sturdy. Our offense collapsed into a black hole of paltry OBP (.305) and our farm hands and scrap heap veterans were anything but consistent as the season pressed forward on the mound for us. Even Roy Oswalt couldn't hold up.

But I don't want to get to that part yet.

There was a week long period after that where it genuinely felt like the Astros were going to do it. They were going to shock all of us and make a legitimate run at the playoffs. Actually take their fate in their own hands and dispatch their NL Central rivals. Maybe it was a fan's bias, but I did. Hell, I even put my neck on the chopping block and tried to show up SBN's own RJ Anderson when he wrote about how screwed the Astros actually were. I still don't think his argument was overwhelming, completely thought out, or entirely objective, but, in the end, he was right and I was wrong if you obscure the issue somewhat.

I think this is known as the first stage of grief: denial. What I was really saying and hoping was: "The Astros are fine, there's a way these obvious defects can be overcome. I can't say exactly how, I just believe they can."

Did I partake in too much of the Kool-Aid? Probably. But I really don't see how I couldn't. It felt like the stars were aligning. It felt like my sports luck was going to turn around. It felt like the baseball gods were going to pay us back for Hurricane Ike, the Selig/McLane/Cubs/Milwaukee fiasco, Joe Creede's ridiculously dumb defensive luck circa October 2005—everything.

It happened, though. Not a bang, but a whimper. The Astros dropped a series to the Mets at home. Then dropped series against Chicago on the road were swept by a Matt Holliday powered Cardinals. At the time it felt disconcerting, but certainly nothing to lose the faith over. After all it, was still just early August. It was impossible for me to fathom that it would be the start of a 25-42 run for the Astros. Reading that number right now it still seems impossible.

The team just started to slip way in bits and pieces. Chris Sampson went down, exposing the limits of the set-up men. Alberto Arais faltered and would go down with injury and later go under the knife. Bud Norris, whose was dazzling in his debut in St. Louis, started to get shelled. Yorman Bazardo got a call up to fill in for the now comical merry-go-round of Feliepe Paulino, Mike Hampton, Brian Moehler, and the released Ortiz, but struggled as well. Every game I oscillated between the anger and bargaining phases of grief. It was either: "What the hell is (object of my ire) doing/thinking, this is absurd. I can't believe they're finding new and impressive ways to blow this" or "Please baseball gods, please, just let them pull it together. It's not to late for them salvage something."

By the time September was underway, I was in full blown depression, the fourth stage. I didn't want to write about this team, I didn't want to think about this team, I didn't want to watch this team. Every loss was too painful; every glimmer of hope from Norris or Paulino tainted by my own jadedness. As I mulled over our options for 2010, the prospect of trying to make this team a contender on the budget Drayton McLane will provide did nothing to pull me out of my funk.

In the depression stage of grief, apparently one disconnects oneself by being silent. By not allowing their thoughts to be challenged or corrected by someone who could bring hope. Even though I wasn't writing, I was still reading. Most of you have continued to find the silver lining. Me, I couldn't stop adhering to Jerry Garcia's adage that every silver lining has a touch of gray.

Sure, Bud Norris has flashed brillance, but I've been stuck on knowing that he'll turn up injured before May rolls around next year. Paulino? He'll probably be on the Wandy Rodriguez path to greatness and take until 2013 to finally arrive. Wesley Wright's conversion to starter? Could Ed Wade be any more desperate for his owner to throw him a lifeline in the form a $10 million to go grab a worth while pitcher?

I could go on, but I think you get the point. That's pretty much how I've been thinking and feeling about the Astros for the last month. It's been awful.

Sometime around 8:30PM though, I finally reached the final stage, acceptance. Was this season a disappointment? Yes. Even so, it still provided a six to eight week stretch where people believed. Where people cared. Even though there's no one thing I can find to blame the Astros soul-crushing, for me, atrophy into the team that limped their way to a 25-42 final stretch, it's ok. I'm not sure there is. This once meteorically hot team just whimpered its way through the majority of the second half to a dismal 5th place finish in the NL Central. From one game behind on July 22nd, to seventeen games back on October 4th. It's probably fitting that they were shut out.

There's always next year.

It's still too soon for me to cling to that adage with the kind of hope I did last December, but at least that's what we have to focus on now.

Cecil Cooper out as Astros' manager: Did he get a raw deal?

HighLeveragePerformer — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 11:00:33 -0000

More photos » by Rick Scuteri - AP

Houston Astros manager Cecil Cooper looks on against the Arizona Diamondbacks during a National League baseball game on Friday, Aug. 28, 2009, in Phoenix. The Diamonbacks defeated the Astros 14-7. (AP Photo/Rick Scuteri)

Browse more photos »

The fallout from the firing of Cecil Cooper is beginning, and JJO has taken to defend Coop for the most part. Opening his article on the firing, Ortiz lets everyone knows where he stands right off the bat:

Cecil Cooper was fired Monday as Astros manager, falling victim to an underachieving, injury-plagued team with a bloated payroll and one of the worst starting rotations in baseball.

Eh. I don't even know if this team underachieved. A team that has one of the worst starting rotations in baseball will find it difficult to compete, especially in light of the lack of depth from the major league level on down. Sure, they were injury plagued and the payroll is bloated, but Coop is not without blame in this mess. Surely he isn't the biggest reason for the Astros' disastrous 2009 season, but he did little to work with what positives this club did have going for it.

Some good news exists on the potential manager front, as Ortiz lays out possible replacements for the manager's role held in the interim by Dave Clark:

Clark, former Phillies, White Sox, Blue Jays and Angels manager Jim Fregosi, former Nationals manager Manny Acta and former Diamondbacks interim manager Al Pedrique, who was promoted to be Clark’s third-base coach from field coordinator, are some potential candidates to replace Cooper. Brad Ausmus, who is currently playing for the Dodgers, Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio, are former Astros who could be candidates if the Astros go for box-office appeal.

To, Ortiz' point about mismanagement and a bloated payroll, Drayton McLane doesn't seem to understand why his team failed so miserably in 2009:

If you'll look, this is the most expensive baseball team the Houston Astros have ever had," McLane said. "It's a huge investment we've had here. It's over $100 million. And we invested it in players that we thought could be championship players.

Currently constructed, there are few Astros that could reasonably be thought of as heavy contributors on a championship level team. Surely Lance Berkman, Wandy Rodriguez, Jose Valverde, Roy Oswalt (when healthy) and Michael Bourn are excellent at their craft and have performed well within their roles. Carlos Lee's contract has eaten up much of the payroll flexibility the Astros might otherwise have.

Speaking of Carlos, he made a pretty on point statement concerning this team. It would have sounded even better if it wasn't so damn ironic:

I’ll tell you, you just got to have a good balance and a competitive team, left fielder Carlos Lee said. If you see the team across the hall right here, the St. Louis Cardinals, they find a way to do it. They’re not a big-market team. They don’t spend that much money. I guess just find a way to do it. That’s what we got to do, just find a way to do it.

Apparently, Carlos is either unaware of his own mammoth contract, or is willing to overlook his contribution to the Astros' top heavy payroll structure.

To sum, Cecil Cooper got fired not because he's the worst MLB manager ever, or because he led a team with high expectations to a 70-80 record. No, he got fired because his veteran team lost confidence in him early on in his tenure, his tactical decisions concerning things like bullpen usage, walking/not walking batters (think Nick Johnson to get to the much less fierce-some Hanley Ramirez), the utilization of the hit and run and stolen base as well as his total lack of communication skills all laid a little bit of dirt on his managerial grave.

More than anything, it was the lack of communication between manager and team that concerned me the most. As a general rule, most managers cannot consistently help their teams win games. Over the course of many seasons, the best managers are those that only cost their team a few wins per season, rather than a handful. Nobody expected a man with no major league managerial experience to take this team to the top.

I'll concede the fact that Coop was put in an extremely unenviable situation, one where it would have taken a ton of moxy, a great deal of luck and a supremely good media presence to wiggle his way out of an escape smelling like roses. Cecil Cooper may be a good man, an honest man, and a baseball man through and through, but there are qualities that professional coaches need to embody in 2009 in order to be successful, and he just doesn't have them (or at least never exhibited them).

Watching his post game press conferences, you almost got the impression that Cecil didn't enjoy his job. He wore the criticisms, the losses, the long nights like a all too heavy Snuggie. Sure, it must have been comforting to some extent to know that he had risen to the highest on field job in the majors, but at the same time, the whole experience seemed to much for him. Where some would have taken that warmth and security and used it to benefit himself and his club, Cooper went the other way. He seemed abrasive at times, and overly affected by criticism at other instances. From pinning misunderstandings on players (think Roy Oswalt) to mishandling pitchers in touchy situations- both injury related (Oswalt again) and role related (just about every pitcher I can think of, especially Felipe Paulino and Russ Ortiz). His owner was misguided in thinking that his $107 million team could compete, and he was equally misguided in thinking that Cecil Cooper could act as the captain to the championship vessel.

How to choose your favorite player, Kaz may return to Japan next season and Lance's thoughts on the 2010 Astros

HighLeveragePerformer — Sun, 20 Sep 2009 11:00:18 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

Lance has confidence in ya, Bud.

Browse more photos »

Jonah Keri asks the question, how do you choose your favorite player? Is he an Astro? Have you followed his career path from riding a stinky bus in Single A to finally getting the hurried call to the majors to replace an injured regular? Maybe he's a fantasy stud who led your team to a strong finish, vanquishing your buddies and causing your heart to warm at the mere mention of his name?

My favorite current Astro has quickly become Michael Bourn. As much as just about everyone (myself included) gave up on him in 2008 combined with Brad Lidge becoming sainted/knighted/deified in Philly, Bourn's resurgence in 2009 has made people think twice and reconsider their opinions of just 12 months prior. Michael is a native Houstonian who didn't get drafted straight out of high school, but went on to play baseball at the University of Houston- which like it or not, has had it's own share of image problems. Few Astros bring the sort of enthusiasm, athleticism and awe inspiring talent that Bourn does. It's become easy and fun to be a fan of his.

The more I follow the minor leagues though, I can tell that I will quickly become a fan of guys like Bud Norris, Felipe Paulino, Jason Castro, T.J. Steele, Danny Meszaros, Jordan Lyles and Jiovanni Mier. These players are going to be the next generation of performers for our hometown club, and for me, they are the first "generation" of professional athletes who are by and large all younger than I am. It will be different watching them than it was watching Biggio, Bagwell and even Oswalt and Berkman.

I think I can appreciate what it takes to perform on the major league level better as a young man than I could as a child or teenager. It takes a certain amount of disappointment, adversity, triumph and satisfaction in a job well done to even begin to understand how a professional athlete treats his work on a day to day basis. I'll never be able to say I know how Jio Mier felt when he struggled or excelled in pro ball, but I do know a little better what hard work means, and I can hopefully appreciate our Farm Stros on a higher level than I could in years past.

Could Kaz Matsui be headed back Japan? It's a possibility, says RJ. That would ease the load a bit on our payroll entering 2010, but it wouldn't make up for the raises that Hunter Pence and Wandy Rodriguez are sure to get in arbitration this offseason.

Justice wonders openly if Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt still love the game, which is indeed disheartening. As some of us have pointed out lately, two veterans who are used to competing in September aren't going to exactly be thrilled to play out a string of meaningless September contests.

Changes are afoot, and a new manager, younger supporting cast, and refreshed atmosphere are just what the doctor ordered. Lance and Roy are wandering around aimlessly, like a person waking up from a deep sleep. A cup of coffee wakes us when we're groggy, and the Astros aren't all that different. Although caffeine isn't what they need-a jolt of excitement via new faces in the clubhouse is what they need to wake up. A fresh, healthy start in 2010 wouldn't hurt either.

Lance has spoken candidly on the subject of his future in an interview with Brian McTaggart. He seems realistic about the difficulties associated with bringing in a #3 starter, but is optimistic about the guys that may make up 4/5 the rotation in 2010:

The one thing I do like about our team next year is the fact I think we're going to have Roy [Oswalt] and Wandy [Rodriguez] and Bud [Norris] and then [Brian] Moehler in the rotation. I think we have four pretty solid starters that give you a chance to win. That's where you have to start. That's the whole foundation to the team.

Berkman is positive that these four will go a long way in determining whether or not the Astros can avoid a fifth consecutive season of not playing October baseball. In general though, he isn't so sure about the rest of the team:

It's hard to prognosticate for next year when you don't know what your personnel situation is going to be like, he said. You don't know who's coming back and who's not. I think until you know that from a personnel standpoint, it's hard to say what's going to happen.