SB Nation - Roy Oswalt

Astros Roster Breakdown: The Starters

davoag — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 21:49:44 -0000

More photos » by Dino Vournas - AP

Roy Oswalt, in a rare good mood

To lead off the starters section, I wanted to focus a little on Roy Oswalt. The soon-to-be 32-year old had his worst season as a professional, but was that a sign of aging and decline, or just a bump in the road?

His BABiP shows he wasn't unlucky in 2009 and was right in line with his career average. He also didn't throw more pitchers per plate appearance than he has in his career, while getting the most swinging strikes he's had since 2004. He did have a slight dip in his percentage of strikeouts that were looking, but since his swing and miss percentage didn't change, I think that was more statistical noise than anything.

You can't even blame injuries for hampering his stuff, because his fastball velocity was the same as it has been for the past few years. In fact, it actually ticked up a notch, but that's probably because of the only significant difference in his performance this season, a 5% drop in the number of fastballs he threw. Oswalt supplemented with more sliders and changeups. So, speed was not an issue...was something wrong with his movement? I wish I were smart enough to put together those cool scatter charts using the PitchF/X data, but I'm not there yet. I'd really like to see if he lost movement or late life on his fastball to determine if that's what the injuries robbed him of.

Other than possibly that, it appears his main problem may have been his attitude. Clashing so publicly and so often with Cecil Cooper, Roy just didn't give off the vibes of a guy playing his best. I'm sure he was playing his hardest, since he seems to have only one speed in that regard. But I wonder if he was mentally there this season. It's the one thing we can't really quantify, attitude.

Hear that, Brad Mills? Keep The Wizard happy next season and he'll bounce back.

Onto the rest of the starting rotation after the jump...

Roy Oswalt, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 8-6, 181 1/3 IP, 4.12 ERA, 30 GS, 19 HR, 138 strikeouts, 42 walks, 1.24 WHIP, 101 ERA+

FIP: 3.76

Average Game Score: 53

BABiP:.305

GB/FB: 1.21

Pitching Runs Created: 70

Notes: Since we've already talked about Roy-Boy's career trajectory, let's focus in on his 2009 season. Is this just the pitcher Roy is now? He struggled with getting any kind of decision all season, finishing with 16 non-decisions. His BABiP was right in line with normal luck, and he still got plenty of ground balls. The concerning part is his strikeout total, but as I said, that's been pretty steady for the past four seasons. His FIP shows he should have had a better ERA, but it would still have been his highest in his career. Roy was one of the main players disappointed in Cooper. Hopefully, he'll be motivated in 2010, because with Roy feeling right and Wandy pitching well, we will have a nice front end to the rotation. About that back end, though...

Wandy Rodriguez, LHP

2009 Season Stats: 14-12, 205 2/3 IP, 3.02 ERA, 33 GS, 21 HR, 193 strikeouts, 63 walks, 1.24 WHIP, 138 ERA+

FIP: 3.54

Average Game Score: 57

BABiP:.306

GB/FB: 1.21

Pitching Runs Created:100

Notes: Wandy was the best pitcher on the Astros staff last season. To put it in perspective, the difference between his and Roy's PRC was Mike Hampton. Maybe overly simple, but pretty amazing, no? Wandy's BABiP showed he wasn't just lucky to pitch this well and his strikeout total is very impressive, especially for a lefty. You'd like to see a few fewer walks, but that's just quibbling. The other interesting thing is his game scores. At 57, it was the highest of any of the starters and showed just how good he was game-to-game. His home/away splits were still very pronounced, though his strikeout rate was about the same. Two full runs of ERA though? For Wandy to take that next step to be an ace, he needs to perform better in road games.

Brian Moehler, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 8-12, 154 2/3 IP, 5.47 ERA, 29 GS, 21 HR, 91 strikeouts, 51 walks, 1.53 WHIP, 76 ERA+

FIP: 4.75

Average Game Score: 44

BABiP:.325

GB/FB: 1.25

Pitching Runs Created: 39

Notes: Moehler started the third-most games on the team last season. The trouble was, he did not perform like a third starter. Though his FIP was lower than his ERA and his BABiP meant he was a little unlucky, Moehler was more bad than good. His strikeouts and walks were both not where they should be. Though he had a good G/F ratio, his average game score shows he was a below league average starter in most of his outings. Much was made about a few of his starts at the beginning and end of the season blowing his ERA up too high. If you added 50 points to his total game score, he still would be well belew the the baseline. As a back-end starter? Moehler probably is useful, but will be recovering from a knee injury he had surgery on. Still, for 3 million? He's not a bad option.

Mike Hampton, LHP

2009 Season Stats: 7-10, 112 IP, 5.30 ERA, 21 GS, 13 HR, 74 strikeouts, 37 walks, 1.55 WHIP, 78 ERA+

FIP: 4.57

Average Game Score: 45

BABiP:.322

GB/FB: 1.78

Pitching Runs Created: 30

Notes: Hampy did just what we thought he'd do, getting a ton of ground balls and not really overpowering anyone. Oh, and getting hurt. He did that too. It's a little surprising Hampton gave up as many home runs as he did, but it did appear this experiment failed.

Felipe Paulino, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 3-11, 97 2/3 IP, 6.27 ERA, 17 GS, 20 HR, 93 strikeouts, 37 walks, 1.67 WHIP, 66 ERA+

FIP: 5.11

Average Game Score: 45

BABiP:.368

GB/FB: 1.08

Pitching Runs Created: 24

Notes: Obviously, anytime a hot, young prospect makes his debut and promptly posts a 6+ ERA, it's hard to be very excited. I still think his performance was somewhat affected by recovering from his 2008 injury, even if only slightly. His strikeouts numbers were great, though he gave up too many hits to win consistently. Paulino is too talented not to win more than three games next season, but it may take him a while to adjust. The Astros would pay more on the open market for a pitcher without nearly the upside of Paulino.

Russ Ortiz, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 3-6, 85 2/3 IP, 5.57 ERA, 13 GS, 8 HR, 65 strikeouts, 48 walks, 1.67 WHIP, 75 ERA+

FIP: 4.61

Average Game Score: 42

BABiP:.330

GB/FB: 1.62

Pitching Runs Created: 23

Notes: Ouch. The positives? Ortiz only gave up eight home runs and had a nice G/F ratio of 1.62. That's about it, though, as his nice start gave way to a rough time in the rotation. Ortiz wasn't as bad as his ERA indicated, but neither was he very good. He was hittable and probably was best as a swingman in the bullpen. He'll have to be that for some other team though, as I don't see the Astros bringing him back.

Bud Norris, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 6-3, 55 2/3 IP, 4.53 ERA, 10 GS, 54 strikeouts, 25 walks, 1.50 WHIP, 92 ERA+

FIP: 4.77

Average Game Score: 49

BABiP:.327

GB/FB: 0.87

Pitching Runs Created: 20

Notes: Norris had the most successful debut of any Astros rookie in 2009. He had some rough patches, obviously, but his average game score was still just a shade under average. He was a bit unlucky with his BABiP and gave up too many fly balls, but the strikeouts were there and the walks were minimized. I don't know whether he can get his control working well enough to be a permanent fixture in the rotation, but with his arm, he will have a place on the big league team for a while.

Yorman Bazardo, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 1-3, 32 IP, 7.88 ERA, 6 GS, 17 strikeouts, 22 walks, 1.84 WHIP, 53 ERA+

FIP: 5.00

Average Game Score: 34

BABiP:.323

GB/FB: 1.52

Pitching Runs Created:5

Notes: The Astros won a bidding war to sign Bazardo to a minor league deal in spring training. He joined with Bud Norris and, later, Polin Trinidad to form a potent rotation at Round Rock. Unfortunately, Bazardo may be the proverbial Quadruple-A guy. His strikeout rate has never been very good (5.3 K/9 in minor-league career), though he supplements that by not allowing too many walks. Bazardo does get a fair number of ground balls and his BABiP showed he was slightly unlucky in 2009. His ERA, though, doesn't really support the claim that his failure was all because of Tejada and Matsui. Bazardo should probably be given another shot, but he's a fringe fifth starter at most.

Wilton Lopez, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 0-2, 19 1/3 IP, 8.38 ERA, 2 GS, 9 strikeouts, 8 walks, 2.07 WHIP, 50 ERA+

FIP: 6.25

Average Game Score: 35

BABiP:.381

GB/FB: 2.32

Pitching Runs Created: 2

Notes: Lopez pitched eight games out of the bullpen, but did start two games, so he ended up in this list. A pickup from the Padres, Lopez pitched relatively well for Corpus Christi before getting a late-season callup. Lopez had a good ground ball rate for his limited sample size and his FIP was lower than his ERA (though neither were very good). He profiles as a guy who could hang around Triple-A and help the Astros out in a pinch, but I wouldn't count on him contributing much in 2009.

Brandon Backe, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 0-0, 13 IP, 10.38 ERA, 1 GS, 10 strikeouts, 6 walks, 2.08 WHIP, 40 ERA+

FIP: 7.94

Average Game Score: 41

BABiP:.375

GB/FB: 0.77

Pitching Runs Created: 2

Notes:You'll find no bigger fan of the Galveston native than me. Jeff Kent's home run to beat the Cards in 2004 wouldn't have been possible without Backe throwing a whale of a game. Unfortunately, that's all we got from him. Tantalizing glimpses at potential that never really panned out in the majors. Backe ran into a wall of injuries and ineffectiveness in 2009, refused a demotion to Triple-A and was released.

Point/Counterpoint: Astros Managerial Search*

davoag — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 17:00:44 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

Acta, obviously dejected he won't be an Astro

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*The part of Devil's Advocate will be played by Davo.

Is it really that bad that the Astros lost out on Manny Acta?

We've gone over his resume a ton, but let's talk about this one little thing: .385.

That's his winning percentage as a major league manager. No Cleveland manager has ever been hired with a career winning percentage that low, according to Chris Jaffe over at THT. The Indians have only been around since, oh, 1901 or so. The Astros have been around since '62, but still managed to hire someone with a worse record than Acta. That would be Preston Gomez in 1971. Gomez was coming off a disastrous four-year stretch as the skipper of the San Diego Padres.

But, wait, you say...Acta was sabotaged by a terrible Nationals team! He wasn't given a chance to win and did what he could with a bad product. I submit to you this man. Pena not only took a bad Royals team over .500 for the first time since 1994, he did it with Jose Lima playing a prominent role. Jose "Casa Ole" Lima! That the team lost 100 games the next season or that Pena hasn't gotten a whiff of another job opportunity since shows something, right?

Okay, so you still think losing Acta was a big real, right? Because Acta is this informed individual who uses advanced stats and doesn't like small ball. Let me posit another hypothesis: what if the only reason you like Acta's managerial style so much is because he's allowed you to see it? Look at the interviews he's done, how candid he's been with his quotes and how much information is out there on his process. Doesn't that strike you as odd? It's almost like he's running a campaign....go look on Google right now for Brad Mills. Do it, I'll wait...

What did you find? Not a whole lot. The guy's been managing forever in the minors, has been a bench coach on one of the best, smartest run teams of this decade and we have no quotes about his style? No interviews detailing his usage of splits or UZR numbers? What if Acta is just a better self-promoter? What if our whole perception of him is exactly what he intends us to see and is figment of our collective imaginations?

Now you've gone too far, you say. I probably did, yes. But it still strikes me as odd that Acta is as open as he's been about everything. Didn't he have a blog too at some point this season? Was I dreaming that? It should be considered is all. Do we want our local skipper to have a better relationship with Justice than with Drayton?

So what about Garner then? He's reliable, he's been tested. In fact, he's the only manager to ever get the Astros to the World Series. That's got to count for something, right? Except that he was fired once by this same team. The same team that featured Roy Oswalt, Carlos Lee and Lance Berkman. Those guys are the tone-setters and they know Garner. I'd argue that this is a bad thing, but is it? The real problem is that Garner didn't distinguish himself as a tactician back then, making an impact more with his calming influence on the club. This current team needs more than an emotional impact, though. They need new thinking.

Don't feel too bad for Ed, Tal and Drayton. So they have to go to their second choice. It's not that bad. Corporations do it all the time. You think ESPN doesn't turn down their top choice for editorial gigs if they ask for more money? The guy just behind you on the pile can do the job about as well as you for the pay we're offering. How is that a bad decision? Plus, will Mills or Garner really be 'managing for their job' if they get just a two-year deal? Shouldn't they always be managing that way? Winning is what we want, it's what the players want, it's what Drayton wants. Why should his employee not want that same thing right away? Certainly, I'm not advocating firing someone before those two years are up, but there should be some urgency there, regardless if they have a contract or not.

Sure, Acta would have been a nice hire, but him going to Cleveland isn't the worst thing in the world. I have thought all kinds of unkind things about Drayton and the front office's lack of commitment to winning. Lately, it's the draft and international free agent spending that gets me the most. Still, I just don't see this as the case with Acta. Sure, everyone liked him, but obviously Drayton didn't like him enough. I'm sure Wade loved C.C. last offseason too, but you didn't see McLane backing up the wheelbarrow for Sabathia. Find me two starting pitchers and a good hitter for the left side of the infield and this offseason will be considered a success.

Early John Lackey Rumors

Eli Greenspan — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 14:40:59 -0000

More photos » by Jae C. Hong - AP

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John Lackey has put himself in a position to cash in this offseason. Lackey put together a strong regular season, posting a 3.83 ERA in 27 starts. Lackey was even stronger in the postseason, going 1-1 with a 2.29 ERA in 19.2 innings.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - John Lackey	11-8	27	27	1	1	0	0	176.1	177	84	75	17	47	139	3.83	1.27

As much as the Angels want to retain Lackey, they might not be able to. They have to decide on the fates of Vladimir Guerrero and Bobby Abreu, both of whom want to return to the Angels. Third baseman Chone Figgins will probably get a look, but he is expected to walk either way.

On the open market, there will definitely be a lot of interest in Lackey. The Boston Globe suggests the Mets and Rangers as logical landing spots, but keep an eye on the Dodgers and, yes, the Astros.

Lackey, a Texas native, would fit perfectly for the Astros. Their current ace, Roy Oswalt, is calling for some help in the rotation and Lackey could be that guy.

While they need to fix their bullpen, and find a replacement at shortstop, landing an All-Star ace like Lackey would certainly raise the morale in Houston, as well as give their new manager a chance to make things happen.

Searching for a Skipper, Part Two

davoag — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 19:35:07 -0000

More photos » by Luis Alvarez - AP

4 months ago: In this Aug. 12, 2008 file photo, Washington Nationals manager Manny Acta waits as umpires talk with each other during a baseball game with the New York Mets in Washington. Acta is out as manager of the Washington Nationals. Acting general manager Mike Rizzo confirmed the firing Monday morning, June 13, 2009, in an e-mail to The Associated Press. (AP Photo/Luis M. Alvarez, File)

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When the Astros confirmed that Manny Acta would be the first candidate brought in for an interview, it began what could be a very open managerial search. This is good for us in that we can get an in-depth look at each potential skipper. So, let's continue this with a look at former Washington Nationals manager Manny Acta.

Acta was signed as a 17-year old first baseman out of the Dominican Republic by the Astros in 1986. He advanced as high as Double-A in both 1989 and 1990, playing 77 games there and batting .194/.194/.258. Acta played 370 games in the minors and had a career line of .241/.241/.299, including his final season at Low A Burlington, where Acta was a player-coach at age 22. Two years later, in 1993, Acta got his first managerial job with Houston's short season New York-Penn League team, the Auburn Astros. Over the next eight seasons, Acta put together a record of 419-432 with four winning seasons, including two straight at his highest stop, High A Kissimmee in 1999 and 2000. Acta also won a Florida State League title in 1999, coaching players like Morgan Ensberg, Brad Lidge, Keith Ginter and Wayne Franklin. In 2000, Acta coached Roy Oswalt, Tim Redding and Jeriome Robertson.

Acta started coaching in the winter leagues in 1999 as well, starting out in Caracas in the Venezuela Winter League before moving to Licey of the Dominican Winter League in 2002. Acta spent 2001 as a coach on the New Orleans staff, when it was still the Triple-A affiliate of the Astros. Players on that 200 team? Astros Pacific Rim scouting director Glen Barker and Lance Berkman, along with former Astros Scott Elarton, Roger Cedeno, Julio Lugo and Scott Linebrink.

Acta was just 33 years old when he was hired as the Washington Nationals new third base coach under manager Frank Robinson in 2002. Acta steadily moved up in the eyes of the Nationals until he was given the mangerial job after Robinson was fired following the 2006 season. Acta also managed the 2006 Dominican Republic entry into the World Baseball Classic, coaching Astros free agent Miguel Tejada and Angels free agent-to-be Vladimir Guerrero as well as former Astros farmhand Francisco Liriano.

So, that brings us to his stint as Washington's manager. In 2007, Acta saw the team to a 73-89 record but revived the career of Dmitri Young. Da Meat Hook even was selected for the All-Star game that July. The Nationals were not great that season, but that was partly because the team had a 4.58 ERA and a WHIP of 1.48. Of course, his starters ERA was 5.11, which makes it hard to win any games. Acta used his bullpen for 590 2/3 innings with an ERA of 3.81, which we will revisit later on. The other telling stat about his pitching staff is in the 73 wins, the team's ERA was 2.91 while in the 89 losses, it was 9.02. Big difference, huh?

In 2008, the team's ERA jumped up to 4.66 but the starter's ERA was still too high at 4.97. His bullpen threw less innings at 553 1/3, but had a slightly higher ERA at 4.18. The team itself lost 102 games and had just 28 saves in 34 save situations. Offensively, Acta got surprisingly good seasons out of shortstop Christian Guzman, second basmean Ronnie Belliard and outfielder Elijah Dukes. Young had another good season, with an OPS of .794, but Acta was hurt by the roster machinations of GM Jim Bowden.

All those roster moves came to a head in 2009, when Acta and outfielder Lastings Milledge had a very public feud. Milledge was sent down to the minors after playing just seven games. Reportedly, the reason was Acta didn't like how Milledge behaved in meetings and that he had a generally surly attitude. This did not endear Acta to management, and he was let go halfway through the season.

The Nationals never had much talent, but Acta did show a knack for getting good performances out of other team's castoffs. He also didn't overuse a bullpen, and got similar results to the Astros this season (534 1/3 IP, 4.13 ERA). I'm not sure whether he would affect the staff positively or negatively, but he's definitely familiar with some of the pitchers and knows how to not go all Joe Torre on his relievers.

The Milledge incident is also interesting, because it suggests Acta is willing to call people out and hold his players accountable. Of course, it also reminds me a little of how Cooper acted with this team, and we know how that ended. So, I'm sure this incident will be discussed in more depth during the interview with Wade and Co.

I brought up all the players he's coached or is otherwise familiar with to illustrate how the Astros might accept him or how he might handle the current roster. If Berkman and Oswalt are both considered the 'Faces of the Franchise', and they both turned on Coop, it's important to get them on board with the hire. Will their familiarity with Acta help? If Acta can get those two to support his style or his accountability methods, it would go a long way to setting up a successful culture on the team.

One interesting quote from this 2007 interview with Acta was regarding his influence on the organization as a whole:

I’m kept in the loop on everything that’s going on, and I have a say in how we want things done down there. I take a lot of pride in having continuity throughout the organization, all the way from rookie ball to the big leagues.

This is very interesting, since it's not a job the Astros have asked from their big league skipper in quite a while. Sure, the coaches will make a call on when to bring guys up or who makes the roster in spring training, but setting a tone in the minor leagues? Continuity at all levels? That's something the Astros have lacked since Hunsicker left in 2004. Now it seems like Bobby Heck and Ed Wade both set the tone for player development. Where would Acta fit into this scheme?

Another interesting quote from the same interview about his bunting strategy:

Bunting is pretty outdated. Everybody scores so many runs nowadays, it doesn’t make sense to play for one run unless it’s late in the game and it’s close. I hardly ever bunt early in a game, unless it’s with a pitcher. A big inning can win you a game. One run in the third inning can’t, unless you have Pedro pitching.

And of course, his pick for the best pitcher in baseball:

Roy Oswalt. He’s just tough as nails. He comes at you like nobody else. That’s a tough place to pitch, and he’s been very consistent.

Acta is also very interested in using sabermetrics to make better decisions, which is very interesting to the people around this blog, we heady baseball fans. I'm not sure whether this is a good or a bad thing, but it may help get all those bad OBP players out of the every day roster. Nothing drives me crazier than all the guys with OBP under .340. But that strays from the point. Acta is a young guy, who's failed in his first job and is looking for some redemption. Sounds a lot like Bill Belichick after the Cleveland fiasco but before New England. Does that make him the best candidate? No, because he still has done nothing to be successful at the big league level. He does make for an interesting candidate, though.

Astros to target free agent pitcher?

Eli Greenspan — Sun, 11 Oct 2009 22:54:22 -0000

More photos » by Lenny Ignelzi - AP

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The Astros have some work to do this offseason, which starts with fortifying the pitching staff. The Astros made a statement firing Cecil Cooper, which should mean the Astros are looking to make some significant moves.

Jim Fregosi and Manny Acta are making headlines in the Astros managerial race, but several former managers are up for the spot as well. MLB asks teams to hold off on announcements during the World Series, so a move could be made in the next two weeks or not until next month.

For pitchers, the Astros need a proven veteran to slot between Roy Oswalt and Wandy Rodriguez. The Houston Chronicle names John Lackey as a possibility, who could sign a five year deal upwards of 75 million dollars.

With Jose Valverde and LaTroy Hawkins up for new contracts, the Astros are going to have spend even more to keep their staff intact.

The Astros could target free agent starter Justin Duchscherer, or even give Brad Penny a shot to crack the back end of the rotation. Both would be relatively inexpensive who could have a positive impact on the Astros' rotation.

Who do you think the Astros should target for the starting rotation?

Roster Breakdown: The Money

davoag — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 21:12:42 -0000

I mentioned there would be a more in-depth look a the Astros 2009 roster today and this is the first part of that attempt. My plan is to look at three different phases of the roster, starting with the monetary worth of all the players, followed by how the position players performed and then how the pitchers did. Hopefully, by knowing what the Astros were last year, it will help predict what they need to do in 2010 to be successful. Onward and upward after the jump...

Helped by the wonderful people over at FanGraphs, I charted the Astros entire roster on both their value in dollar amounts and their actual salaries, which I got from Cot's Baseball Contracts. I added all of them up to get the team's total value for the season and how much money they actually spent. I should also note before we dive into analysis that I adjusted the pitcher's values for their batting, which I'll talk about more in a minute.

The Astros players performed at a value worth 95.2 million this season, while the payroll came in around 106.2 million. This means the team underperformed the payroll by about 11 million dollars. I was a little surprised at this, as I mentioned yesterday in the Dave Clark story, the Astros outperformed their pythag record by six wins. I thought this might translate into value for the club. It did, but not to the extent I expected.

In fact, if we discounted the pitchers' batting, the team would have outperformed payroll by about 7 million, but some of the pitchers, like Oswalt, Wandy and especially Moehler, all were hugely affected by poor batting. Moehler went from one of the few bargains on the team to being one of the biggest detriments. Oswalt also underperformed his contract by about 3.7 million, though he was one of a handful of Astros to contribute double-figure value.

On the plus side, Michael Bourn and Hunter Pence combined to produce 33.9 million of the Astros overall 95 million value. Both are playing on pre-arbitration contracts, so were the two biggest values on the team. Wandy was also a huge value, adding 11.8 million over his 2.6 million dollar contract, but lost 3.8 million because of his hitting. That seemed a bit high to me, but as I thought about it more, the only way pitchers can't hurt their team batting-wise is to pitch in the American League, and I'm not sure Wandy would have put up the same value if he had pitched in the tougher league.

Who else were values? Jeff Fulchino came in fourth, with a 3.2 million positive difference, while Mike Hampton was fifth at 2.6 million. It also didn't hurt that Hampy added 0.8 million with his bat. Chris Sampson and Alberto Arias were the next two on the list and the last two that topped 2 million in positive difference between their contracts and their worth. Anther surprise for me was Edwin Maysonet outperforming his contract by one million.

The other side of that coin is the guys who underperform, and the worst at that was Carlos Lee. At -7.9 million, he had the biggest negative difference on the team. The only two players coming close to that were Darin Erstad and Jose Valverde, who both clocked in with negative-5 differences. Doug Brocail and Tim Byrdak were the next two on the bottom, followed by Geoff Geary and Roy Oswalt. The reason so many of these guys are relievers is that their salary greatly exceeded their worth. In fact, the only one who added positive value to the team was Valverde at 3 million. Quick shot analysis of this is that relievers really are fungible, so it's silly to pay more than a million dollars for all but the best closers. Otherwise, you're wasting monetary resources on a position you can fill many different ways.

As for Lee, that contract is an absolute albatross. His hitting is great and all, but his defense hurts the club out in left field and he won't always hit like he's doing now. On the current open market, you can definitely find a bargain that can hit 30 homers and bat .280 for left field without spending 10 million per year, much less the 18.5 Lee earned in 2009.

That's all the analysis I'm going to do now, because I'll get into more detailed looks at player performance later, but I've included the data I used for the entire team for you to peruse below. Look for more posts on the managerial hiring process too as we get more information.

	WAR	Salary	Difference
Bourn	18.700	0.435	18.265
Pence	15.200	0.439	14.761
W. Rodriguez	14.400	2.600	11.800
Fulchino	3.600	0.400	3.200
Hampton	4.600	2.000	2.600
Sampson	2.700	0.449	2.251
Arias	2.500	0.402	2.099
Quintero	2.300	0.610	1.690
Rodriguez	3.100	1.500	1.600
Gervacio	1.900	0.400	1.500
Blum	2.600	1.200	1.400
Keppinger	1.700	0.428	1.273
Maysonet	1.400	0.400	1.000
Norris	0.400	0.400	0.000
Sadler	0.000	0.402	-0.402
Towles	0.000	0.402	-0.402
Manzella	-0.200	0.400	-0.600
Kata	-0.300	0.400	-0.700
Berkman	13.600	14.500	-0.900
Tejada	11.800	13.000	-1.200
Paronto	-1.100	0.500	-1.600
Bazardo	-1.200	0.405	-1.605
Ortiz	-1.100	0.750	-1.850
Michaels	-1.200	0.750	-1.950
Boone	-1.200	0.750	-1.950
Lopez	-1.600	0.400	-2.000
Hawkins	1.500	3.500	-2.000
Johnson	-2.000	0.375	-2.375
Moehler	-0.200	2.300	-2.500
Wright	-2.100	0.425	-2.525
Matsui	2.400	5.000	-2.600
Coste	-2.500	0.460	-2.960
Backe	-1.500	1.500	-3.000
Paulino	-2.600	0.405	-3.005
Smith	-2.800	0.500	-3.300
Oswalt	10.300	14.000	-3.700
Geary	-2.000	1.700	-3.700
Byrdak	-3.200	1.000	-4.200
Brocail	-2.200	2.500	-4.700
Valverde	3.000	8.000	-5.000
Erstad	-4.100	1.750	-5.850
Lee	10.600	18.500	-7.900

This is way the Astros season ends: Not with a bang, but a whimper

DyingQuail — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 12:58:48 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

My feelings exactly, Aaron.

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I've done pretty much anything but think about the Astros today. There were too many mixed emotions to sort through; too many other tantalizing distractions to latch onto. I've watched a dismal Fantasy Football day crush my spirits, the Texans look weak in the second half against the Oakland Raiders, talked HLP down from the ledge as he fretted about his ability to clinch our rotisserie keeper-league (he did, Congrats buddy, you earned it).

I didn't even watch the Astros game. I couldn't.

I saw the standard tweets about it on my desktop client (Tweetie) and that was enough depression for me. The most critical thinking I could bring myself to do about the Astros was a few expletive deleted texts and about five minutes worth of phone conversation between HLP and myself. I don't know why it is that I feel this way, or I have felt this way for the last few weeks, but I think the catharsis of knowing that it's over has finally allowed me to snap out of my funk.

I can still remember when the glimmer of hope I had for this season was born. BtB's Sky Kalkman emailed me the spreadsheet for his Community Projection Project and I rushed to input all the projections. Without any fan embellishment, we were something like an 80 win team. It was late December and I was shocked. Flabbergasted. Almost afraid to actually publish the result publically. I probably wrote about seven drafts of an email I never sent Sky explaining—politely—that I thought his spreadsheet was broken.

We spent the next few weeks tweaking and refining the inputs and suddenly we were an 82 win team. Then in late March Ivan Rodriguez and Jeff Keppinger landed in Houston and we quickly became an 83 win team. There was probably inflation, but a .500 season seemed realistic, and there were all the variables in place to allow for some kind of meaningful and exciting season to get underway.

April and May saw the NL Central become a smorgasbord of stories that had thrown the conventional off-season predications of how the Central would play out, out. Yet the Astros struggled for most of it and seemed destined to be mired in irrelevancy, even as opportunity knocked. I managed to avoid excess worry and pessimism during this stretch by being wrapped up in graduating from college and then not living like a member of the real world for the next month (that month will easily go down as the most enjoyable month of my life). Perhaps that's what insulated my glimmer of hope and kept me set up for the inexorable Astros-depression that has plagued me as of late (does semi-ignorance count as denial?)

June arrived and the Astros were quietly good. The responsibility of covering the team on a daily basis allowed for me to be slow to notice the fact that the Astros were stringing together victories and closing ground in the Central. So it was a very plesant surprise when I finally allowed myself to consider the possibility of the Astros becoming...contenders(?!).

By the time the All-Star break was upon us, I don't think that there were many of us who weren't starting to harbor something akin to excitement. When we opened the second half by splitting the series with the Dodgers, I'd say most of us were starting to place ourselves in the camp of believers. I know I was.

Sure, there was a mountain of statistical evidence based on macro-level measures that could demonstrate how the Astros couldn't possibly succeed, but we saw a different picture. We saw a team that had been felled by Jose Valverde's monstrously wicked calf strain, Roy Oswalt's post-WBC inconsistency, and Lance Berkman's weird odd-year-early-season-under-perfomance. We were buoyed along by the fact that Wandy, in spite of his two weeks of HR/FB regression, was pitching consistently and finally living up to all of our hopes. There was Bud Norris tilling the farm in the PCL with a low 2.00 ERA and thus the hope that our rotation could only get better—not worse.

This all led to what I'll consider to be the peak of the Astros 2009 Season: July 20th-22nd. The NL Central leading Cardinals were going to be at MMP and the Astros had quite the opportunity on their hands. Prior to the Astros three game sweep of the Cards, I wrote the following:

Unlike previous years when the Astros and their fans had to hope and pray throughout the month of September that other teams would drop the ball while the Astros took care of other opponents, the Astros will be firmly in the drivers seat this time around from July 20th on...

...I consider this series to be the keynote address to how the Astros will handle the opportunity they're presented. They're only real opponent is themselves. This is a division, and even an Wild Card race, that has proven to be anything but decided ninety plus games into the season. So the Astros, flawed as they are, have legs to stand on in the search for October baseball, but we've all yet to figure out is how sturdy those legs ar e.

As we all know, the legs weren't that sturdy. Our offense collapsed into a black hole of paltry OBP (.305) and our farm hands and scrap heap veterans were anything but consistent as the season pressed forward on the mound for us. Even Roy Oswalt couldn't hold up.

But I don't want to get to that part yet.

There was a week long period after that where it genuinely felt like the Astros were going to do it. They were going to shock all of us and make a legitimate run at the playoffs. Actually take their fate in their own hands and dispatch their NL Central rivals. Maybe it was a fan's bias, but I did. Hell, I even put my neck on the chopping block and tried to show up SBN's own RJ Anderson when he wrote about how screwed the Astros actually were. I still don't think his argument was overwhelming, completely thought out, or entirely objective, but, in the end, he was right and I was wrong if you obscure the issue somewhat.

I think this is known as the first stage of grief: denial. What I was really saying and hoping was: "The Astros are fine, there's a way these obvious defects can be overcome. I can't say exactly how, I just believe they can."

Did I partake in too much of the Kool-Aid? Probably. But I really don't see how I couldn't. It felt like the stars were aligning. It felt like my sports luck was going to turn around. It felt like the baseball gods were going to pay us back for Hurricane Ike, the Selig/McLane/Cubs/Milwaukee fiasco, Joe Creede's ridiculously dumb defensive luck circa October 2005—everything.

It happened, though. Not a bang, but a whimper. The Astros dropped a series to the Mets at home. Then dropped series against Chicago on the road were swept by a Matt Holliday powered Cardinals. At the time it felt disconcerting, but certainly nothing to lose the faith over. After all it, was still just early August. It was impossible for me to fathom that it would be the start of a 25-42 run for the Astros. Reading that number right now it still seems impossible.

The team just started to slip way in bits and pieces. Chris Sampson went down, exposing the limits of the set-up men. Alberto Arais faltered and would go down with injury and later go under the knife. Bud Norris, whose was dazzling in his debut in St. Louis, started to get shelled. Yorman Bazardo got a call up to fill in for the now comical merry-go-round of Feliepe Paulino, Mike Hampton, Brian Moehler, and the released Ortiz, but struggled as well. Every game I oscillated between the anger and bargaining phases of grief. It was either: "What the hell is (object of my ire) doing/thinking, this is absurd. I can't believe they're finding new and impressive ways to blow this" or "Please baseball gods, please, just let them pull it together. It's not to late for them salvage something."

By the time September was underway, I was in full blown depression, the fourth stage. I didn't want to write about this team, I didn't want to think about this team, I didn't want to watch this team. Every loss was too painful; every glimmer of hope from Norris or Paulino tainted by my own jadedness. As I mulled over our options for 2010, the prospect of trying to make this team a contender on the budget Drayton McLane will provide did nothing to pull me out of my funk.

In the depression stage of grief, apparently one disconnects oneself by being silent. By not allowing their thoughts to be challenged or corrected by someone who could bring hope. Even though I wasn't writing, I was still reading. Most of you have continued to find the silver lining. Me, I couldn't stop adhering to Jerry Garcia's adage that every silver lining has a touch of gray.

Sure, Bud Norris has flashed brillance, but I've been stuck on knowing that he'll turn up injured before May rolls around next year. Paulino? He'll probably be on the Wandy Rodriguez path to greatness and take until 2013 to finally arrive. Wesley Wright's conversion to starter? Could Ed Wade be any more desperate for his owner to throw him a lifeline in the form a $10 million to go grab a worth while pitcher?

I could go on, but I think you get the point. That's pretty much how I've been thinking and feeling about the Astros for the last month. It's been awful.

Sometime around 8:30PM though, I finally reached the final stage, acceptance. Was this season a disappointment? Yes. Even so, it still provided a six to eight week stretch where people believed. Where people cared. Even though there's no one thing I can find to blame the Astros soul-crushing, for me, atrophy into the team that limped their way to a 25-42 final stretch, it's ok. I'm not sure there is. This once meteorically hot team just whimpered its way through the majority of the second half to a dismal 5th place finish in the NL Central. From one game behind on July 22nd, to seventeen games back on October 4th. It's probably fitting that they were shut out.

There's always next year.

It's still too soon for me to cling to that adage with the kind of hope I did last December, but at least that's what we have to focus on now.

Thursday Midday Astros, etc Round Up

HighLeveragePerformer — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 16:50:03 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

Budddddddddd.

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Ed Wade has two pages chock full of people who want to manage the Astros. One of the more interesting names that has been bandied about, Dave Duncan, isn't one of them. It would have been interesting to have Duncan in the mix, seeing as how he's worked side by side with TLR all these years in both Oakland and St. Louis.

Richard Justice points out that Drayton McLane's Astros have been a well run franchise. Obviously the biggest reason to think otherwise has been his neglect of the farm system and unwillingness to spend the necessary money on draft picks in the past. If Ed Wade truly has convinced McLane that it's wise to invest in the farm system, and that to fail to do so assures either the need for a high payroll or a lousy record, then this team may be able to break this recent pattern of poor drafting and struggling big league teams.

Baseball Prospectus gives a pretty even handed assessment of the Astros, suggesting that the future ain't so bright around Houston. They give the usual suggestion to trade Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt, and also mention Darin Erstad, Brandon Backe and Jason Michaels more than probably need be, but such is their way I suppose.

The United States has clinched the top spot in the Baseball World Cup! Kudos to our young ballplayers for dominating thus far. Sadly, one player who hasn't been dominating is Mr. Jason Castro, who sports a .095 batting average in six games. That's ok, Jason- JR Towles can't do much better over here.

My thought of the day: This economic crisis the country has had to battle for the past year or so has seen large companies basically taken over by the government to ensure that reckless decision making is kept to a minimum. Now, I'm not trying to make a political statement or anything, but I think this is an interesting idea to apply...not necessarily to the economy, but to MLB teams.

Take the Astros, for instance. For years, the Astros mismanaged the amateur draft like an AIG executive looking at a balance sheet. Look at the Astros now. A shell of our former, once respectable selves. What can happen to change this? Why not let MLB make decisions for the Astros? Buy out the bad parts of the team, back all decisions with the security of the MLB brand and dig us out the hole. Once operations return to normal, pick us a new owner, and let us free. It's like nursing an injured animal back to health. Or hell, what if the Astros made an agreement with Tampa or Atlanta or Oakland to allow their GM to somehow help the decision making process in return for a prospect here, or a Roy Oswalt there? Just a thought.

Wednesday Astros, etc Round Up

HighLeveragePerformer — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 11:00:29 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

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If anyone has a thing for 67 year old chubby managers of one time NL championship teams, then you're in luck! The Astros' top choice for their managerial position may Jim Fregosi. Richard Justice is confident that Ed Wade, who made decisions in Philly to hire both Terry Francona and Charlie Manuel, will choose the right man to take the helm of the SS Astro.

Lest a pity party inadvertently break out for Cecil Cooper, injury news concerning Roy Oswalt and Alberto Arias should remind us of one reason why Coop was fired. Oswalt will head to Dallas to seek a second opinion from a specialist in bulging disks, while Alberto Arias will undergo arthroscopic surgery on his right knee. Arias, thankfully, should be ready to pitch in the Dominican Winter League, while Oswalt hopes to avoid surgery at all costs. A quote of Oswalt's I've read before strikes me as sorta scary:

...I don’t want to lose feeling in my leg

Yikes. Why he was asked to continue pitching even after he left a start early in August against Chicago, I do not know. As for Alberto, Coop made mince meat out of him after Chris Sampson was rendered useless after overuse. It's a downright irresponsible legacy he left, these injuries. True, he wasn't given the best starters in baseball, but when in doubt, he would more often than not make the walk from the dugout to the mound to pull a guy, rather than leave him in to take one for the team. I do not know if Alberto Arias' injuries are a direct result of his usage this season, but it certainly could not have helped. He is an ex-starter, and he actually pitched more innings in 2008 than in 2009. Cooper using him too frequently in back to back games is one area that may have hurt Alberto in the long run.

Beyond the Boxscore has a nice article on managerial longevity and similar subjects. Quality stuff as usual.

For those who like to play Monday Morning Quarterback...the Astros (like clack noted last week) could have drafted Derek Jeter in 1992 instead of Phil Nevin. A late 1990s double play combination of Derek Jeter and Craig Biggio probably would have made my 13 year old head explode with excitement, so maybe it's a good thing we used the likes of Ricky Gutierrez and Tim Bogar...

Speaking of Bogar, we've had a few nights to sleep on the firing of Cecil Cooper, and more importantly, to ponder the options to replace Coop. In light of that, after weighing the facts, pros and cons of the names thrown out there, who would you like to be the next manager of the Houston Astros?

Poll

Who should be the next manager of the Astros?

Jim Fregosi

5 votes

Tim Bogar

15 votes

Al Pedrique

4 votes

Jeff Bagwell

17 votes

Manny Acta

32 votes

Craig Biggio

8 votes

Brad Ausmus

39 votes

Bobby Cox

14 votes

Dave Clark

4 votes

Someone Else

33 votes

171 votes | Poll has closed

Cecil Cooper out as Astros' manager: Did he get a raw deal?

HighLeveragePerformer — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 11:00:33 -0000

More photos » by Rick Scuteri - AP

Houston Astros manager Cecil Cooper looks on against the Arizona Diamondbacks during a National League baseball game on Friday, Aug. 28, 2009, in Phoenix. The Diamonbacks defeated the Astros 14-7. (AP Photo/Rick Scuteri)

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The fallout from the firing of Cecil Cooper is beginning, and JJO has taken to defend Coop for the most part. Opening his article on the firing, Ortiz lets everyone knows where he stands right off the bat:

Cecil Cooper was fired Monday as Astros manager, falling victim to an underachieving, injury-plagued team with a bloated payroll and one of the worst starting rotations in baseball.

Eh. I don't even know if this team underachieved. A team that has one of the worst starting rotations in baseball will find it difficult to compete, especially in light of the lack of depth from the major league level on down. Sure, they were injury plagued and the payroll is bloated, but Coop is not without blame in this mess. Surely he isn't the biggest reason for the Astros' disastrous 2009 season, but he did little to work with what positives this club did have going for it.

Some good news exists on the potential manager front, as Ortiz lays out possible replacements for the manager's role held in the interim by Dave Clark:

Clark, former Phillies, White Sox, Blue Jays and Angels manager Jim Fregosi, former Nationals manager Manny Acta and former Diamondbacks interim manager Al Pedrique, who was promoted to be Clark’s third-base coach from field coordinator, are some potential candidates to replace Cooper. Brad Ausmus, who is currently playing for the Dodgers, Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio, are former Astros who could be candidates if the Astros go for box-office appeal.

To, Ortiz' point about mismanagement and a bloated payroll, Drayton McLane doesn't seem to understand why his team failed so miserably in 2009:

If you'll look, this is the most expensive baseball team the Houston Astros have ever had," McLane said. "It's a huge investment we've had here. It's over $100 million. And we invested it in players that we thought could be championship players.

Currently constructed, there are few Astros that could reasonably be thought of as heavy contributors on a championship level team. Surely Lance Berkman, Wandy Rodriguez, Jose Valverde, Roy Oswalt (when healthy) and Michael Bourn are excellent at their craft and have performed well within their roles. Carlos Lee's contract has eaten up much of the payroll flexibility the Astros might otherwise have.

Speaking of Carlos, he made a pretty on point statement concerning this team. It would have sounded even better if it wasn't so damn ironic:

I’ll tell you, you just got to have a good balance and a competitive team, left fielder Carlos Lee said. If you see the team across the hall right here, the St. Louis Cardinals, they find a way to do it. They’re not a big-market team. They don’t spend that much money. I guess just find a way to do it. That’s what we got to do, just find a way to do it.

Apparently, Carlos is either unaware of his own mammoth contract, or is willing to overlook his contribution to the Astros' top heavy payroll structure.

To sum, Cecil Cooper got fired not because he's the worst MLB manager ever, or because he led a team with high expectations to a 70-80 record. No, he got fired because his veteran team lost confidence in him early on in his tenure, his tactical decisions concerning things like bullpen usage, walking/not walking batters (think Nick Johnson to get to the much less fierce-some Hanley Ramirez), the utilization of the hit and run and stolen base as well as his total lack of communication skills all laid a little bit of dirt on his managerial grave.

More than anything, it was the lack of communication between manager and team that concerned me the most. As a general rule, most managers cannot consistently help their teams win games. Over the course of many seasons, the best managers are those that only cost their team a few wins per season, rather than a handful. Nobody expected a man with no major league managerial experience to take this team to the top.

I'll concede the fact that Coop was put in an extremely unenviable situation, one where it would have taken a ton of moxy, a great deal of luck and a supremely good media presence to wiggle his way out of an escape smelling like roses. Cecil Cooper may be a good man, an honest man, and a baseball man through and through, but there are qualities that professional coaches need to embody in 2009 in order to be successful, and he just doesn't have them (or at least never exhibited them).

Watching his post game press conferences, you almost got the impression that Cecil didn't enjoy his job. He wore the criticisms, the losses, the long nights like a all too heavy Snuggie. Sure, it must have been comforting to some extent to know that he had risen to the highest on field job in the majors, but at the same time, the whole experience seemed to much for him. Where some would have taken that warmth and security and used it to benefit himself and his club, Cooper went the other way. He seemed abrasive at times, and overly affected by criticism at other instances. From pinning misunderstandings on players (think Roy Oswalt) to mishandling pitchers in touchy situations- both injury related (Oswalt again) and role related (just about every pitcher I can think of, especially Felipe Paulino and Russ Ortiz). His owner was misguided in thinking that his $107 million team could compete, and he was equally misguided in thinking that Cecil Cooper could act as the captain to the championship vessel.