SB Nation - Trever Miller

After Two Days Of Waiting, Dodgers Should Preach Patience

Eric Stephen — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 21:00:19 -0000

by Jae C. Hong - AP

NLDS: Cardinals vs. Dodgers
Game 1	Wed	Dodger Stadium	6:37pm
Game 2	Thu	Dodger Stadium	3:07pm
Game 3	Sat	Busch Stadium	3:07pm
Game 4*	Sun	Busch Stadium	TBD
Game 5*	Oct 13	Dodger Stadium	TBD
*if necessary		All times Pacific
All games televised on TBS

Game one is upon us, finally. The last two days have seemed like an eternity, but game day is finally here. It no longer matters what happened over the final 10, 20, or 30 games, or even the season for that matter. It doesn't matter how many pundits pick against the team with the best record in the National League, and the best run differential in baseball. All that matters now is that the playoffs are here, the Cardinals are here, and the Dodgers get to play at home.

The Dodgers have lost 31 of their last 43 games against the Cardinals, and they will start Chris Carpenter, who is something like 74-2 against the Dodgers with a 0.07 ERA. I may have rounded on those numbers, so don't quote me. I went back to MLB Gameday to look at both of Carpenter's starts against the Dodgers, both Cardinal wins. I looked specifically at how he pitched to the Dodgers' big three outfielders, trying to find a pattern:

vs. Andre Ethier: Carpenter threw 17 pitches, but only five fastballs. Ethier smoked the three fastballs that were strikes for a single, double, and a lineout. Carpenter had success when keeping the ball up on Ethier, inducing a couple infield popups and a groundout

vs. Manny Ramirez: Threw 10 fastballs in 22 pitches. Carpenter had success when challenging Manny on his hands with the inside fastball, inducing a pair of double plays. Manny hit a double off a mistake pitch, a fastball Carpenter left up in the zone.

vs. Matt Kemp: Threw nine fastballs in 29 pitches. Carpenter got Kemp out on off-speed stuff away. Kemp was patient though, seeing those 29 pitches in only six plate appearances.

I'm no scout, but it seems to me the Dodgers strategy against Carpenter is to wait on his fastball. It could be a dangerous plan against someone who walks so few hitters (1.8 walks per nine innings on the season), but it was the same plan that worked against Tim Lincecum at Dodger Stadium nearly three weeks ago.

A better strategy just might be to have Randy Wolf pitch a good game. Tonight is Wolf's first playoff game, in his 11th big league season, so I'm sure the butterflies will be there. Then again, he did give up 16 and 17 runs in the first two innings, respectively, this year, so that might not be anything new. Then again, Wolf almost always settles down and ends up pitching deep into the game, so there is no need to worry.

All quality starts are not created equal, but Wolf is comparable to Carpenter in that department. Wolf threw 24 quality starts, which was 71% of the time, good for eighth in the NL. Carpenter was second in the league, throwing a quality start in 22 of 28 starts, 79% of the time.

The last time the Dodgers hosted game one of a playoff series was in 1996 against the Braves, a 2-1 loss in 10 innings. The Braves' starter that day was John Smoltz, who will be available in the bullpen for tonight's game and might start game four on Sunday.

James Loney has a hit in each of the eight postseason games he has started, and is hitting .382/.447/.559 with 11 runs batted in in nine playoff games.

The Cardinals have two left-handed relievers on their playoff roster, Dennys Reyes and Trever Miller. Andre Ethier, who hit .194/.283/.345 against southpaws this season, has only limited action against both. He is 0-for-1 with walk and a HBP against Reyes, and has one hit in five at-bats against Miller. Ethier did manage to hit lefites well at home, however, hitting .305/.376/.610 with six home runs in 93 plate appearances at Dodger Stadium.

The Dodgers are 4-6 all-time in game ones at Dodger Stadium.

Game Time: 6:37pm

TV: TBS (all NL playoff games will be on TBS)

Baseball Reference Game One Preview

Dodgers, Cardinals Set Rosters for NLDS

Eric Stephen — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 18:31:23 -0000

More photos » by Jae C. Hong - AP

Emperor Palpatine takes questions before tonight's game

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NLDS: Cardinals vs. Dodgers
Game 1	Tonight	Dodger Stadium	6:37pm
Game 2	Thu	Dodger Stadium	3:07pm
Game 3	Sat	Busch Stadium	3:07pm
Game 4*	Sun	Busch Stadium	TBD
Game 5*	Oct 13	Dodger Stadium	TBD
*if necessary		All times Pacific
All games televised on TBS

The Dodgers and Cardinals have announced their roster for the division series.

Dodgers

Catchers (2): Russell Martin, Brad Ausmus

Infielders (7): James Loney, Ronnie Belliard, Rafael Furcal, Casey Blake, Orlando Hudson, Juan Castro, Mark Loretta

Outfielders (4): Manny Ramirez, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Juan Pierre

Pinch Hitters (1): Jim Thome

Starting Pitchers (4): Randy Wolf, Clayton Kershaw, Vicente Padilla, Chad Billingsley

Relievers (7): Jonathan Broxton, George Sherrill, Hong-Chih Kuo, Ronald Belisario, Ramon Troncoso, Jon Garland, Jeff Weaver

Cardinals

Catchers (2): Yadier Molina, Jason LaRue

Infielders (7): Albert Pujols, Skip Schumaker, Julio Lugo, Brendan Ryan, Mark DeRosa, Troy Glaus, Old Friend Joe Thurston

Outfielders (4): Matt Holliday, Colby Rasmus, Ryan Ludwick, Rick Ankiel

Starting Pitchers (4): Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, Joel Pineiro, one of John Smoltz or Kyle Lohse

Relievers (8): Ryan Franklin, Kyle McClellan, Jason Motte, Trever Miller, Dennys Reyes, Blake Hawksworth, Mitchell Boggs, one of Smoltz or Lohse

The Dodgers starting rotation will be Randy Wolf, Clayton Kershaw, Vicente Padilla, and Chad Billingsley, in that order.

The Cardinals will counter with Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, and Joel Pineiro for the first three games. Either John Smoltz or Kyle Lohse, who will both be available in the bullpen tonight, will start game four on Sunday.

Rockies grind out playoff caliber win over Cardinals, magic number drops to six

Rox Girl — Sat, 26 Sep 2009 03:48:53 -0000

More photos » by Jack Dempsey - AP

2 months ago: Colorado Rockies' Todd Helton hits a sacrifice fly to drive in a run against the St. Louis Cardinals in the first inning of a baseball game on Friday, Sept. 25, 2009, in Denver. (AP Photo/Jack Dempsey)

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Going up against a bona fide ace, the Cardinals Chris Carpenter, with a potential playoff spot still hanging in the balance, the Colorado Rockies came through with gutsy, gritty 2-1 victory on Friday night, just when they needed it.

The Rockies used two sacrifice flies, one by Todd Helton in the first inning to score Carlos Gonzalez, and a walk off fly to right field by Yorvit Torrealba in the bottom of the ninth to score Tory Tulowitzki to do their scoring. Meanwhile, the Cardinals got their only run when Jose Contreras left a mistake pitch up in the strike zone to Ryan Ludwick resulting in a solo home run. Other than that, mistakes by the Rockies players were few and far between.

Aaron Cook got things off on the right foot by pitching five scoreless innings, with an effective, devastating sinker that hasn't always been there for him in 2009 before giving way to Contreras. Contreras breezed through the harder part of St. Louis' lineup, striking out the side in the sixth, including Albert Pujols while giving up just a Matt Holliday single before getting hit hard by Ludwick in the seventh. Rafael Betancourt and Huston Street added scoreless innings (albeit with some drama in Betancourt's eighth before he induced a Matt Holliday double play to end it) to preserve the tie and set the stage for the Rockies walk off win.

Helton led off the bottom of the ninth with a walk against left hander Trever Miller, but was forced out at second on a Tulowitzki groundout. Jason Giambi with better hitting of late pinch hit for Brad Hawpe and came through with a single to push Tulowitzki to third (don't underplay his heads up baserunning to move up the extra base) which allowed Torrealba the chance to be the hero once again with the game winning RBI.

The Rockies are now 5-0 against the Cardinals this season.

87 - 67

Games Back: 5

Streak: Won 1

Games Left: 8

With eight games left for the Rockies and nine for the Braves, Atlanta still has to come up with four more wins than Colorado does the rest of the way to force a tie. Not that we want it to come to this, but a 3-5 record for the remaining eight games would require the Braves to finish 8-2 (7-2 in their regularly scheduled games plus the play-in) to overtake us. The Rockies magic number to clinch a playoff spot has dropped to six. Not to give too much fodder to the sky is falling crowd, but 3.5 games was the precise advantage that San Diego had on the Rockies after the games on Friday, September 21, 2007.

There were a couple of key distinctions, however. Because of game 163, the Rockies and Padres had 19 total games (10 for the Padres, 9 for the Rockies) left to play rather than the 17 now (hopefully) left for the Braves and Rox. When you push it forward to the Saturday standings and 17 total games left, the Rockies had already cut the Padres lead to 2.5, mainly, and this is the big key, because the Rockies were playing the Pads at San Diego and won. By the next day, coincidentally enough, the Rockies had cut the lead to 1.5. The lack of direct competition late in the season hurts the Braves chances tremendously this year. I said it once before, but the Braves really lost this All-Star race in July, just before the All-Star break when they let two late inning leads at Coors Field slip away.

As of now, the Braves are right with our 2007 pace, and you can remember what it took from the Rockies to overtake the Padres then. We'll see tomorrow if they're capable of cutting the lead to 2.5 with eight games left without the virtue of playing us directly. The Braves need help, and lots of it from the Cardinals and Brewers and Dodgers if they want to extend their season. The Rockies just need to keep on winning.

via www.fangraphs.com

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A Quick Peek At The Cards

Eric Stephen — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 18:00:12 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

Stan "The Man" Musial.

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The Dodgers head to St. Louis for a four game series beginning tonight, in a place that has been a house of horrors for the Dodgers the last couple of years. The Dodgers have dropped 14 of their last 17 games at differing versions of Busch Stadium.

Analyzing the Cardinals up to this point is instructive to a point, but their recent acquisition of outfielder Matt Holliday changes things quite a bit. The middle of the Cards' lineup now looks as formidable as any team in the National League:

Pos	Player	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA
1B	Pujols	.325	.445	.693	1.138	.458
LF	Holliday	.297	.336	.471	.857	.378
RF	Ludwick	.275	.339	.500	.839	.366

Of course, having Albert Pujols makes any lineup formidable, but the team certainly looks much improved. Add in recent acquisitions Mark DeRosa and Julio Lugo, and the offense looks even better.

The Cardinals pitching staff is led by brilliant yet fragile ace Chris Carpenter, who is 3-0 with a 1.86 ERA so far in July. Carpenter is led at the top by Adam Wainwright, who is quietly putting together an outstanding season (11-6, 3.55), and a resurgent Joel Pineiro, who has a 2.95 ERA built on shockingly low amounts of walks, homers, and strikeouts. The Cardinals starting staff lead the National League in inning per start, at 6.2.

The bullpen is led by closer Ryan Franklin, who has been outstanding this season (2.97 FIP, 22 saves), with major contributions from lefties Trever Miller (3.25 FIP) and Dennys Reyes (3.88 FIP), and Kyle McClellan (4.15 FIP).

The Cardinals are coming off a 2-5 road trip, but Monday's game marks the first game at home for new acquisitions Holliday and Lugo, so expect a raucous crowd.

2009 Cardinals
Record	53-48, 2nd NL Central, ½ GB
Pythag Record	53-48 (5th in NL)
Runs Scored	4.40/gm (8th in NL)
wOBA	.322 (10th in NL)
Runs Allowed	4.20/gm (6th in NL)
FIP	4.00 (5th in NL)
Defensive Efficiency	.697 (8th in NL)

**********

Viva El Birdos is the SB Nation Cardinals blog. Here are some recent posts:

ChuckB takes a look at the Julio Lugo for Chris Duncan trade
A look at the potential of Troy Glaus playing the outfield (unlikely now with the Holliday acquisition)

**********

Pitching Probables

Monday: Randy Wolf (5-4, 4.24) vs. Chris Carpenter (8-3, 2.70 FIP), 4:05pm

Tuesday: Chad Billingsley (10-5, 3.50 FIP) vs. Adam Wainwright (11-6, 3.61 FIP), 5:15pm

Wednesday: Clayton Kershaw (8-5, 3.38 FIP) vs. Joel Pineiro (9-9, 2.99 FIP), 5:15pm

Thursday: Hiroki Kuroda (3-5, 3.55 FIP) vs. Kyle Lohse (4-6, 4.51 FIP), 5:15pm

Lugo and the Lefties

chuckb — Thu, 23 Jul 2009 06:00:09 -0000

More photos » by Tony Dejak - AP

I suspect we'll like Lugo more when he's doing this than when he's fielding so I didn't exactly go out of my way to try and find a picture of him w/ a glove.(AP Photo/Tony Dejak)

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Ok, first things first…How bad is Julio Lugo? I know the trendy answer is to say, "REALLY F-ING BAD!" but I’m just not convinced that’s the case. Can we all agree that Brendan Ryan’s had a pretty good season? Ok, so he’s not the greatest hitter in the world (.299 wOBA, -5.5 wRAA this year) but he’s a very good fielder. So far this season he’s been worth nearly 9 runs above average on defense, 6.8 of them while playing the field’s 2nd toughest position. From a defensive standpoint, only 2 shortstops have been worth more runs than Ryan and his UZR/150 (15.0) is higher than any qualified shortstop in the big leagues. Right now, Ryan’s been worth 1.5 WAR and $6.6 – equal to the D-backs Stephen Drew. He’s on a pace -- despite a recent offensive slump -- to finish above 2 WAR, thus making him an above average major league shortstop. The question, therefore, becomes, how much better than Lugo is Ryan?

It goes without saying that Ryan is a better defensive shortstop than Lugo is. For his career, Lugo is actually an above average shortstop, registering a UZR/150 of 2.6 but there is a significant downward trend in his defensive numbers. He was a below average shortstop in 2006 and 2008 but slightly above average in 2005 and 2007. In 32 games this season, he’s been awful (minus 8.3 runs) but it’s reasonable to believe that Lugo would be no worse than 8 or 10 runs below average for a full season. That’s still at least a win and a half worse than Ryan, however.

Offensively, Lugo is considerably better than Ryan. His career BB rate is 8.5% and his career OBP is .335 but he’s only had 1 season w/ an OBP below .340 in the last 5. His career wOBA is .323 and in 123 PAs this season it’s been .329. Lugo’s career line drive rate is 19.4%. He’s been basically a league average offensive player – not league average offensive SHORTSTOP, but league average HITTER – every season of his career except for 2001 and 2007. In fact, R.J. Anderson makes the case over at fangraphs that Lugo is a league average offensive player. So, if that’s true, and Lugo is a league average offensive player and 10 runs below average defensively – add about 20 runs for the difference between replacement level and league average and 7.5 runs for the positional adjustment for Lugo playing shortstop, and Lugo would be roughly 17.5 runs above replacement level – 2.5 runs below average for a full season. Basically, Lugo is likely a slightly below league average player – probably less than a win worse than Ryan. All in all, considering the fact that Boston’s paying his entire salary, we’re getting about an $8 M player for nothing, except Chris Duncan and a PTBNL. Not at all shabby, IMO.

Throw in the fact that he can play 2B and 3B (if he really has to, but I’ll bet he makes at least 1 appearance either at 3rd or in LF) and that he has a career .716 OPS against lefties and we have a guy who can be a pretty good value to the team going forward. He’s certainly better than Tyler Greene or Brian Barden (or Joe Thurston, btw) and, if Tony allows it, should play 2B in Skip’s stead whenever a lefty’s on the mound. It’s worth noting, additionally, that the difference between a shortstop and a left fielder is 15 runs in favor of the shortstop meaning that Duncan would have to be a win and a half better than Lugo on offense and defense for them to just be of equal value. And he’s not…period. Never has been and probably never will be.

Word is that Big Dunc is not at all happy about the trade and that Tony’s not thrilled either but this trade unquestionably makes the team better in the short run. Consider also that Lugo is signed for next year and the Red Sox are picking up the tab and we at least have a pretty good bench option settled for next year as well. I’ll reserve full judgment on the deal until we hear who the PTBNL is but my initial reaction is that it’s a good move for the team.

**********************************************************************

The other thing I wanted to address this morning is something that’s gone, basically, without notice (or at least very little fanfare) and that’s the state of our left handed relief. This year’s tandem of Trever Miller and Dennys Reyes has been significantly better than last year’s duo of Randy Flores and Ron Villone. The stats below tell us all we need to know: (the BA, OBP, and SLG are against left handed hitters)

	K/9	BB/9	FIP	BA	OBP	SLG
Miller ‘09	10.36	2.96	3.33	.123	.164	.211
Reyes ‘09	8.06	3.63	3.89	.222	.283	.259
Flores ‘08	5.96	7.01	5.27	.314	.422	.549
Villone ‘08	9.00	6.66	4.51	.176	.311	.318

Randy Flores could do his own stand-up comedy with his version of Jeff Foxworthy’s "You Know You’re a Redneck When…" by calling his routine "You Know You Suck When…" You know you suck when this year’s southpaws have OPSes that are lower than your SLG!

Together Miller and Reyes have been worth nearly 4 runs above average which sounds like it isn’t much, but when you consider the fact that they’ve thrown less than 47 innings combined, it’s impressive. They also tend to work some of the highest leverage situations, both having gmLIs above 1 and, in fact, only Franklin has a higher LI than Reyes. They work under pretty constant pressure and have been more productive than every other reliever on our staff except for Franklin. There just aren’t many lefty specialists who’ve been better than Miller and Reyes this season. They’ve been a significant upgrade (3.8 runs below average in ‘08) over Flores and Villone and it’s something that should be noticed and that Mo should be given credit for since the 2 of them are signed for a total of $1.5 M this season.

SBN's NL Central Round Up: Part II

DyingQuail — Sat, 18 Jul 2009 13:00:14 -0000

More photos » by Jae C. Hong - AP

I just had to use LL Cool J because he was available.

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[ The following is the second part of a week long discussion that took place over Google Docs between all the NL Central Blogs for SBN. I have to say that I thoroughly enjoyed checking in every day-ish and seeing what everyone had to input ,and want to thank Eric Simon and Sky Kalkman for making this happen. With as much as we'll be seeing of some of these teams in the next month, hopefully this will help us follow Sun Tzu's sage advice of know thine enemy ]

Part 2: Second Half Storylines

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): What surprising story lines from the first half of the season have shaped the standings the most?

Stephen Higdon (Astros): I think the thing that has by far shaped the standings and been the biggest surprise is the Cubs early season woes. I know a number of times at TCB, I have sort have marveled how the Astros, as terribly as they've played, are some how still somewhere in the NL Central hunt and it just doesn't make sense. The thing that has sort of been the defining element of the NL Central is inconsistency. No one has managed to eek out an sizable lead, nor has there been any really distinct separation of basement dwellers and contenders. While I doubt that it will remain that way through out the second half (as the BtB Power Rankings certainly indicate), the standings, as they are now, certainly make for an interesting July and August—something I feel few would have predicted in March for the Central.

Kyle Lobner (Brewers): For the Brewers, three major disappointments and one major surprise have shaped the season. In the early going this season, Rickie Weeks was the straw that stirred the drink for the Brewers, but when he went down with a torn tendon sheath in his wrist, the Brewers were left with a hole at second base and in their leadoff spot. They've used no less than five players in the leadoff spot since, and have yet to find the answer. Across the bag at shortstop, J.J. Hardy's complete inability to hit has left the Brewers searching for hitting, which isn't a problem the team was anticipating. Hardy is hitting just .226 with a sub .300 OBP and limited power. Thankfully, his defense balances some of it out. Finally, the sudden and precipitous decline of Manny Parra left a major hole in the rotation that the Brewers weren't prepared to replace, but hopefully spending some time in the minors straightened him out.

On the positive side, the Brewers have gotten more than anyone could have asked for from Casey McGehee, who has gone from waiver wire castoff to NL ROTY candidate in about two months.

Slyde (Reds): I think the Cubs and Cardinals are the two surprise stories of the year for the NL Central. Personally, I didn't expect the Cubs to be as good as the media was anointing them to be, but I expected them to be a lot better than they have been. I think the injury to Aramis Ramirez really hurt them beyond what they probably imagined it would and the poor performance of Rich Harden has to be a surprise. The Cardinals are a surprise not necessarily because they are winning, but because of how they've done it this year. They were outstanding offensively to start the season, but have been carried by their pitching of late. I guess I should stop being surprised when a team with Albert Pujols does well, but I really didn't expect the Cardinals to be much better than a .500 team this year. Perhaps they'll fall back, but every time I think they're going to slip up, they seem to keep chugging.

Al Yellon (Cubs): The Cubs' woes are well known. Frankly, i put a lot of the blame for this on Jim Hendry, who, along with Lou Piniella, apparently decided that the reason the Cubs lost the 2008 NLDS to the Dodgers was that they weren't lefthanded enough. That wasn't the reason, but the Cubs dropped the popular and productive Mark DeRosa and added Milton Bradley, who has been horrendous most of the first half. Bradley's been a bit better lately, but Adam Dunn would have been a better free-agent signing. I didn't think this was a better team than last year's going in, so maybe it's not a surprise the Cubs are struggling, but I did expect better than .500 play.

Charlie Wilmoth (Pirates): I can't disagree with everyone who's been surprised by the Cubs (and I'd add Alfonso Soriano's poor start to their long list of troubles), but the excellent return of Chris Carpenter from injury, along with some really great performances by other Cardinals pitchers (Ryan Franklin, Joel Pineiro, Trever Miller) have to rank up there as well. I suppose surprisingly good Cardinal pitching barely qualifies as a real surprise anymore, though--it seems like every year they have a Kyle Lohse or a Todd Wellemeyer who comes out of nowhere.

[ Like yesterday, there's much more after the jump ]

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): Which of those surprises are most likely to continue throughout the rest of the season? I.e. which are flukes and which are for real?

Kyle Lobner (Brewers): Well, obviously Rickie Weeks isn't going to come back. Aside from that, the Brewers hope J.J. Hardy's luck will even out, Manny Parra is straightened out and Casey McGehee stays hot. Of the three, McGehee is probably the least likely to maintain his current pace. If Manny Parra doesn't come back strong and the Brewers don't make a move, they could pitch themselves out of contention.

Al Yellon (Cubs): I'd have to expect that Bradley will come back to at least somewhat close to his previous performance. I doubt he'll come up to the standard he set with the Rangers last year -- much of which was accomplished as a DH -- but if he can even split the difference between 2008 and first-half 2009, it will help. I'd like to see the Cubs try him at leadoff, since he isn't driving in runs but is leading the team in OBA.

Charlie Wilmoth (Pirates): Casey McGehee is a huge fluke; his OPS right now is 150 points higher than any untranslated OPS he's ever posted at any stop, in the majors or the minors. He should regress enormously in the second half. I think Soriano will probably bounce back to a degree, but not as much as Cubs fans might hope--he has often looked very sluggish. Still, I expect the Cubs to recover somewhat and give the Cardinals a strong race. Aramis Ramirez's return will help a lot.

Dan Moore (Cardinals): The Cardinals have spent the bulk of the season with such luminaries as Joe Thurston and Skip Schumaker as the offensive second banana. With Colby Rasmus hitting home runs and last year's surprise, Ryan Ludwick, finally finding his bat, that won't be an issue. The Cardinals will have a hitter on either side of Albert Pujols in the second half, but it might still only be two of them.

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): Which big local stories aren't getting as much attention from the national media? Should they be?

Stephen Higdon (Astros): I think the big story for the Astros has been Michael Bourn's outstanding bounce back at the plate. Although he is starting to come back down to earth in the AVG department, his near .360 OBP has been a true boon for the Astros and something that I myself would have never predicted. He has been fairly efficent on the basepaths and in spite of his UZR rating, most defensive metrics have him pegged as one of the better CF in the NL, and it is something you never hear mentioned in the national media. Not that I blame them because it's not like there is much of a reason to pay attention to things that are happening here in the Bayou City on the baseball diamond.

Other noteworthy tidbits would probably be the Astros tremendous struggle to keep the bullpen healthy and the way that LaTroy Hawkins has established himself as a more than capable back-end of the bullpen pitcher in the wake of Valverde's six week hiatus following a calf strain. If the Astros are going to be sellers at the deadline (something I don't think will happen given the bunched standings in the Central) I would imagine that Hawkins will be a prime target for teams looking for someone to help anchor their bullpen; yet he's someone who I hear nothing about, but maybe things will change as the trade deadline gets closer.

Kyle Lobner (Brewers): At the moment, I think the national media is too steadfast in the belief that the Brewers will implode if they don't make a move. Certainly, the Brewer starting rotation struggled through June and early July, but Manny Parra pitched well in his return from AAA and Dave Bush could be back on July 20. If Bush comes back strong, the Brewers would be back to their opening day rotation, which led them to a 33-24 start. They'll do their due dilligence on guys like Roy Halladay, Javier Vazquez et al, but there's a pretty good possibility that this team could contend for a playoff spot without moving anyone.

Al Yellon (Cubs): Best-kept secret in the National League is Randy Wells -- who the Cubs thought so little of a year ago that they let him go in the Rule 5 draft to the Blue Jays. Thanks, Toronto, for sending him back. He's made 11 starts, all but one of them good, and should have three more wins because the bullpen blew games for him (or the Cubs failed to score). He's a genuine Rookie of the Year candidate.

Slyde (Reds): I'm not sure if everyone knows about Joey Votto outside of his "stress-related issues." He's 36 PAs short of qualifying for batting rate stats, but if he did, he'd be 1st in AVG, 3rd in OBP, and 4th in SLG. Also there is the dramatic improvement to the Reds pitching and defense this season. I'd guess that most people still figure the Reds are an offense first team, but they've been getting it done more on the other side of the ball this year. They are middle of the pack in ERA, but given their ballpark, that is a definite step up. Of course, outside of Votto, they can't actually do anything positive on offense to take advantage of the better pitching.

Dan Moore (Cardinals): Rick Ankiel's not a national story now that he's fulfilled the movie narrativeóhe came back, he was very successful for a year, end of national media attention. But he's more or less fallen off the face of the earth this year; if the season ended today, his OPS would be 40 points lower than it was in 2000, his one brilliant season on the mound. He's stayed in the lineup almost by default, because Chris Duncan is hitting nearly as poorly and plays defense like a converted linebacker, but recently he admitted to a lingering injury from that brutal outfield-wall collision. It's a big local story, but it doesn't fit into the Rick Ankiel Narrative.

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): How about ending with one bold prediction we won't hold you accountable for if you're wrong, but we'll worship at your feet for if it comes true?

Al Yellon (Cubs): Alfonso Soriano goes on one of his patented hot streaks, carries the Cubs for a month, and they win the division by five games.

Stephen Higdon (Astros): Cecil Cooper gets fired if the Astros drop more than 2 of their first five series after the break...Manny Acta, keep your phone close.

Slyde (Reds): The Reds trade for both Matt Holliday and Roy Halladay. A confused Dusty Baker bats Halladay fourth and Holliday 9th. When questioned about it, he responds that he actually meant to bat Halladay 2nd so that he could bunt runners over and waste outs in front of Joey Votto.

Charlie Wilmoth (Pirates): Albert Pujols wins the Triple Crown.

Kyle Lobner (Brewers): The division comes down to the last week to ten days of the season, and four teams are within 5-7 games of first place when the season ends.

Dan Moore (Cardinals): Rick Ankiel comes out of the bullpen on the last day of the season, with Todd Wellemeyer on the ropes, and clinches the division championship with a 12-6 curveball across the outside corner. In the words of the Andrews Sisters, I can dream, can't I?

Pujols Nukes Slowey

Jesse — Sat, 27 Jun 2009 22:11:38 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

5 months ago: St. Louis Cardinals' Albert Pujols watches his first home run of a baseball game against the Minnesota Twins during the first inning Saturday, June 27, 2009, in St. Louis. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)

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That was the definition of getting Pujol'd.

John Madden used to pontificate about what would happen when the unstoppable force came into contact with the immoveable object. Well this afternoon, we saw what happens when Albert Pujols played both roles. He wasn't about to be moved by what Kevin Slowey was pitching, and I probably don't need to explain why he was unstoppable.

The weather wasn't doing favors to the pitchers. When it's as hot and humid as it was in St. Louis on Saturday afternoon, it can be hard to concentrate pitch after pitch after pitch. Both Todd Wellemeyer and Slowey would attest to this, as neither of them managed to see the fourth inning. Unfortunately, Slowey is the one who pitched longest, which meant he was on the mound in the third inning to see Pujols come around for the second time. That first bomb was on a slider right down the middle of the plate, so naturally Slowey mixed it up the second time around. It was a first pitch fastball, up in the zone, and Pujols pulled it to left for his 28th home run of the season.

Take one moment to appreciate the greatness that is the AP of the baseball world. What's it like to slug .700? Just ask him.

On the plus side, Brendan Harris managed to give the Twins a momentary glimmer of hope. Down 2-0 following Pujols' first shot, Harris blooped a bases-loaded single and with the help of a diving Chris Duncan. All three runners crossed the plate to five the visitors a brief 3-2 lead. Bobby Keppel actually pitched four innings of shutout baseball, giving the Twins offense a chance to take back the game. They never did, and in fact Keppel was the only man to reach base after the fourth inning by taking a walk in the seventh.

Josh Kinney, Trever Miller, Kyle McClellan, Dennys Reyes, Jason Motte and Ryan Franklin combined to give the Cardinals 6.2 innings of scoreless baseball. Which is fantastic, for St. Louis. But considering who some of those guys are, and how they pitched, the Twins have to be disappointed about missed opportunities.

One chance to take back the series, coming tomorrow. See you there.

Stars of the Game
#3: Delmon Young (1-for-1, .044 WPA)
#2: Brendan Harris (2-for-4, 3 RBI, .209 WPA)
#1: Bobby Keppel (4 IP, 2 H, 3 K, 3 BB, 0 R; 0-for-0, BB, .127 WPA)

McClellan, and Reyes, and Motte, and Miller, and Franklin, and Boyer, and Perez, oh my

DanUpBaby — Mon, 11 May 2009 10:16:56 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

7 months ago: Cincinnati Reds' Willy Taveras steals second as St. Louis Cardinals second baseman Skip Schumaker (55) catches a high throw in the first inning of a baseball game, Sunday, May 10, 2009, in Cincinnati. (AP Photo/Al Behrman)

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Today is one of those off-days that seems to have been built in with advance knowledge of the season's outcome. That wasn't a great win—the blown save, the weird bullpen histrionics, another ambiguous Wainwright performance—but it was an eventful one, one that demands a day off before the Cardinals get back to the business of winning brisk, efficient ballgames.

And if they'd lost—well, perish the thought.

Franklin didn't look like he was about to allow home runs to the wrong Hairston and a pitch-hitter, of course, but he didn't look like the unhittable guy who'd won over even the most hardened sections of the young pitchers contingent in April, either. In the course of fulfilling his prime directive—hit the corner, hit the corner, hit the corner—he began missing significantly off the plate, which ran the count full and forced him toward the center of the strike zone, where he turns back into Ryan Franklin. A game plan built upon filling the strike zone with borderline pitches falls apart when the command and the umpiring aren't perfectly sharp, and they weren't.

Pulling the camera back a little, Franklin was indeed the only reliever—of seven, the full complement in an average pen—to retire three batters yesterday. Like most La Russa over-managing, it fell just this side of plausibility, helped along by a series of circumstances that were especially conducive to it, particularly the especially shaky performance by McClellan and the Thurston error that turned Motte's relatively sharp turn into a one-out cameo. But in the end I have no way of justifying sending Franklin up to face—or even not face, if that walk was truly de facto intentional—Joey Votto.

I'm not of the opinion that a pitcher is thrown off by coming in with two outs in the eighth instead of the ninth, especially one who has shuffled through as many roles as Ryan Franklin has, but the very reason that the bullpen currently has eight pitchers in it is to allow for the continued employment of two whose only skill is retiring left-handed batters. If Trever Miller can't face Joey Votto when lefties stand, season to date, 2-20 against him, what's he doing on the roster? It's not just the move that doesn't make sense—it's the existence of this enormous bullpen in the face of it.

You might not have noticed it, because I think we're all inured by now to the fact that a fourth outfielder is playing second base, but Skip Schumaker's two doubles yesterday pushed his slugging percentage over .400 and his OPS comfortably above the league average. That's right—for the moment he has fulfilled the prophecy and become that offense-first second baseman you've always wanted.

Punching the latest figures into Fangraphs, that means he's now worth all of negative two million dollars.

Now, I'm not an unshakeable defender of the Schumaker experiment; in spring training I said I was glad La Russa took the experiment seriously, and would trust him to know when to pull the plug, and I've not seen enough either way to move me from that position. But while his terrible UZR numbers are bad news, they aren't conclusive—right now among the few fielders who project to be worse than Skip is Khalil Greene, and while I did not see a lot of West Coast games last season I'm relatively sure he was not a center fielder in 2008.

Right now even Schumaker's extraordinarily low numbers as an outfielder are weighting him down, but I'm not sure anybody who's not throwing the baseball from the pitcher's mound can rightfully be charged with three runs in 33 innings of play. All this is just to say that no matter how he looks, it's not yet time to stop trusting your eyes.

Play-by-play defensive statistics are without a doubt the closest we've come to quantifying defense, but they're not a game-by-game tool; you can't total up a player's bases allowed and match them to real game moments.

If Skip's still on pace to cough up three wins on defense in July—well shorter than the inventor of UZR suggested to measure true talent, but presumably enough to get an accurate account of the value he's provided this year—I'll stop waving the bloody sample size shirt. But until then I'm going to look at that gaudy left field number and wait for more data.

DAN: It's like getting an ace back just as you're about to get another ace back, all thanks to the second ace, without having to trade anybody!

AL: You know, Dan, it really is.

Phillies vs. Cardinals: May 4-5

Matt Swartz — Mon, 04 May 2009 03:01:50 -0000

The Phillies (12-10) take on the Cardinals (17-8) for two games in St. Louis before heading back east to face the Mets in New York. The Cardinals have been fantastic thus far this year, only just behind the Dodgers (18-8) for the best record in the NL. This has been a mixture of solid hitting and good pitching. They have not been overly dominant and they certainly aren't going to win 100 games this year, but they have been solid nonetheless. Monday pits the two Phillies' recent successful midseason starting pitching acquisitions against each other, Joe Blanton and Kyle Lohse. Lohse got away after the 2007 season, and has been successful with the Cardinals since then, finally earning himself the large deal he was seeking after a solid 2008. On Tuesday night, Brett Myers takes on Adam Wainwright. Myers has struggled with the long ball thus far this year, but has shown signs of dominance at times. Wainwright has been good so far in 2009, and will be another formidable opponent for the Phillies this year.

The Phillies "walk" into St. Louis looking to start a winning streak! (via pompomflipflop)

MATCHUPS:

Monday 8:15: Joe Blanton vs. Kyle Lohse
Tuesday 8:15: Brett Myers vs. Adam Wainwright

The player by player splits, as always, are after the jump.

CARDINALS

LINEUP

The Cardinals have the best hitter in baseball in the three hole of their lineup. Pujols is off to another phenomenal start this season. There is no one else especially good in the Cardinals lineup, but they are all solid hitters otherwise. Ankiel provides power from the left side in the two hole, and Ludwick provides power from the right side in the four hole. Neither are major power hitters, but both will hit quite a few balls out of the park this season. Chris Duncan is also a pretty good left handed hitter in the five hole. He struggles against lefties though.

(1) 2B Skip Schumaker (L): .266/.317/.329

proj: .290/.345/.395
bb: 7.5%
k: 12.5%
gb: 58%
iff: 5%
ifh: 4%
babip: projected high (.315-.320) but I see no reason why this would be true. more likely to be around .305 or so with low infield fly rate
s/c/z: average eye and distinctly above average contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .813 vs .487 ops; 1.2 vs 1.8 k/bb
h/a: .740 vs .758 ops
p/o: spreads ball all around
other:

(2) CF Rick Ankiel (L): .253/.326/.405

proj: .260/.325/.485
bb: 8%
k: 23%
gb: 39%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: around .280, definitely below average as he swings at a lot of balls out of the zone and hits a lot of infield flies; does well on line drives
s/c/z: swings at a lot of pitches without a very good eye, makes below average contact, and therefore pitched around a lot
r/l: .824 vs .753 ops; 2.3 vs 5.2 k/bb
h/a: .853 vs .746
p/o: pulls nearly everything; rarely hits other way
other: relatively better against groundball pitchers and finesse pitchers

(3) 1B Albert Pujols (R): .356/.468/.724

proj: .330/.430/.610
bb: 15%
k: 11%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 6%
babip: hits the ball very hard but he does pop up a lot. even still he hits about .320 on balls in play
s/c/z: very good eye, very good contact, sees a lot more strikes than other superstars
r/l: 1.040 vs 1.086 ops; 0.8 vs 0.5 k/bb; pretty similar power vs. both
h/a: 1.059 vs 1.044 ops; 0.6 vs 0.8 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: obscenely good against starters the 3rd time around vs the SP (1.194 career)

(4) RF Ryan Ludwick (R): .280/.310/.549

proj: .270/.350/.510
bb: 9%
k: 27%
gb: 30%
iff: 12%
ifh: 6%
babip: projected around .320; seems to have historically very high babip on groundballs but not particularly fast; maybe he hits hard groundballs-- it does seem to be a statistically significant (or close to it) different from average
s/c/z: good eye but swings a lot; slightly below average contact; sees a lot of contact
r/l: .899 vs .794 ops; 2.9 vs 2.6 k/bb
h/a: .902 vs .822; 2.5 vs 3.1 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

(5) LF Chris Duncan (L): .312/.413/.558

proj: .260/.350/.455
bb: 12%
k: 27%
gb: 41%
iff: 12%
ifh: 4%
babip: projected above average, seems about average in all ways despite slightly above average historical babip
s/c/z: good eye and pretty selective, slightly below average contact
r/l: .909 vs .627 ops; 1.7 vs 4.7 k/bb
h/a: .789 vs .919; 2.1 vs 1.9 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers and struggles a lot against power pitchers

(6) C Yadier Molina (R): .329/.393/.481

proj: .270/.330/.370
bb: 7.5%
k: 9%
gb: 46%
iff: 11%
ifh: 4%
babip: projected around .285; makes sense considering he doesn't have much power but has a good eye and a high groundball rate
s/c/z: good eye but swings a lot; very good contact rate; sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .657 vs .749 ops; 1.5 vs 0.8 k/bb
h/a: .687 vs .682 ops; 0.8 vs 1.8 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

(7) SS Khalil Greene (R): .215/.329/.338

proj: .250/.305/.430
bb: 6%
k: 21%
gb: 35%
iff: 10%
ifh: 5%
babip: below average because he doesn't hit ball far so weak on flyballs
s/c/z: average all around
r/l: .723 vs .749 ops; 3.6 vs 1.7 k/bb
h/a: .659 vs .799 ops; 2.6 vs 3.3 k/bb (low babip at home and much less power in career-- he played in san diego through 2008 so that's why)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

(8) 3B Joe Thurston (L): .279/.362/.443

proj: .270/.325/.390
bb: 6%
k: 14%
gb: 40% (though about 50% in minors)
iff: 36% (extremely high, nearly 20% in minors even)
ifh: 0%
babip: projected above average, but given popup rate, that seems optimistic.
s/c/z: bad eye and hacks a lot, slightly below average contact
r/l: .620 vs 1.089 (120 vs 19 PA); in minors last 4 years combined .813 vs .728 ops
h/a: typical in minors
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

BENCH

The Cardinals only carry four guys on the bench. Colby Rasmus, the Cardinals top prospect, is a solid hitting LHB and a threat off the bench. The other three guys are poor hitters. The Cardinals starting 8 will pretty much have to do the damage. The three non-Rasmus hitters are all RHB.

C Jason LaRue (R): .455/.538/.455

proj: .210/.290/.330
bb: 9%
k: 25%
gb: 42%
iff: 12%
ifh: 8%
babip:
s/c/z: good eye but swings a lot, bad contact
r/l: .721 vs .715 ops; 3.2 vs 3.1 k/bb
h/a: .696 vs .742; 3.2 k/bb both ways
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

IF Tyler Greene (R): .111/.111/.111

proj: unprojected
bb: 6% in AA/AAA last year
k: 27% in AA/AAA last year
gb: 50% in AA/AAA last year
iff: 13% in AA/AAA last year
ifh: ?
babip: not enough info
s/c/z: not enough info
r/l: similar ops; 6.2 vs 3.4 k/bb in AA/AAA
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

IF Brian Barden (R): .349/.396/.581

proj: .255/.310/.375
bb: 7%
k: 21%
gb: 46%
iff: 8%
ifh: 0%
babip: projected about average
s/c/z: about average all around
r/l: .754 vs .668 ops in 60 PA vs 32 PA
h/a: not enough info
p/o: spreads ball around
other: none

OF Colby Rasmus (L): .270/.365/.365

proj: .245/.310/.405
bb: 10%
k: 21%
gb: 35%
iff: 9%
ifh: 19% (in 16 GB)
babip: about average
s/c/z: seems like he has a very good eye so far this year
r/l: .685 vs .787 in minors last year through three levels
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: top prospect just promoted this year

ROTATION

The Phillies will face Kyle Lohse and Adam Wainwright this weekend. Lohse is a former Phillie who got away. He has good control and keeps the ball on the ground for the most part. He is better against righties, but does not have an extreme split, just a good one. Wainwright has had a strong year, as expected. He's good at inducing groundballs, and he's especially tough on righties. He doesn't miss that many bats but has reasonably good control.

MONDAY'S STARTER: Kyle Lohse (R): 1.97 ERA, 2.25 BB/9, 5.34 K/9, 0.28 HR/9, 3.16 FIP, 47% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.7 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 42%
pitches: 60% fb, 23% sl, 11% ch, 7% cb
r/l: .752 vs .810 ops; 2.6 vs 1.7 k/bb
h/a: .751 vs .808 ops; 2.4 vs 1.8 k/bb

Lohse vs. Phillies:

Stairs: 6/26, 5 BB, 4 K
Ibanez: 6/24, 3 HR, 4 BB, 3 K, 1 SF
Rollins: 2/15, 2 BB, 2 K
Utley: 2/12, 1 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Feliz: 3/9, 2 2B, 1 BB,0 K
Victorino: 1/10, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Howard: 2/7, 2 BB, 3 K
Dobbs: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Coste: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K

TUESDAY STARTER: Adam Wainwright (R): 2.76 ERA, 5.52 BB/9, 7.67 K/9, 0.31 HR/9, 3.78 FIP, 45% GB

proj avg: 3.75 ERA, 2.7 BB/9, 6.3 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 47%
pitches: 54% fb, 22% sl, 18% cb, 7% ch
r/l: .661 vs .747 ops; 2.1 vs 2.4 k/bb
h/a: .687 vs .708 ops; 2.6 vs 1.9 k/bb

Wainwright vs. Phillies:

Rollins: 3/12, 1 2B, 0 BB, 4 K
Utley: 2/10, 1 3B, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 HBP
Howard: 2/7, 4 BB (1 IBB), 2 K
Victorino: 1/7, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Coste: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US: Mitchell Boggs (R): 3.29 ERA, 2.63 BB/9, 9.88 K/9, 0.66 HR/9, 3.27 FIP, 41% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 5.7 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 68% fb, 22% cb, 7% sl, 4% ch
r/l: .725 vs .977 ops; 1.2 vs 0.9 k/bb
h/a: .824 vs .882 ops; 0.9 vs 1.1 k/bb

Boggs vs. Phillies:

Howard: 2/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Werth: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Coste: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US: Todd Wellemeyer (R): 5.28 ERA, 2.48 BB/9, 4.97 K/9, 0.31 HR/9, 3.47 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 64% fb, 24% sl, 12% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: .733 vs .799 ops; 1.9 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: .780 vs .736 ops; 1.5 vs 1.8 k/bb

Wellemeyer vs. Phillies:

Rollins: 0/8, 2 BB, 1 K
Utley: 4/8, 1 2B, 2 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Werth: 0/5, 2 BB, 2 K
Howard: 2/5, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Stairs: 1/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Cairo: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US: Joel Pineiro (R): 3.24 ERA, 1.89 BB/9, 2.70 K/9, 0.54 HR/9, 3.99 FIP, 56% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.7 BB/9, 5.2 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 47%
pitches: 58% fb, 20% sl, 12% ch, 9% cb, 0.4% ct
r/l: .788 vs .745 ops; 2.4 vs 1.8 k/bb
h/a: .7227 vs .805 ops; 1.9 vs 2.2 k/bb

Pineiro vs. Phillies:

Stairs: 5/10, 1 BB,0 K
Rollins: 2/9, 0 BB, 1 K
Cairo: 1/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 1/5, 1 BB, 1 K
Utley: 3/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 1/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Howard: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Werrth: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K

BULLPEN

Our old friend Ryan Franklin has emerged as the closer. He has yet to surrender a run this year, too. He will, though. He has a career of mediocrity, and he will eventually struggle again. He doesn't strike people out very well, and so he is pretty long ball prone. The Cards have two lefties in their pen, Dennys Reyes and Trever Miller. Both are pretty good slider-throwing lefties, with decent platoon splits but not extreme ones. Both are capable of getting righties out too. Reyes is good at getting groundballs. The set up man is Kyle McClennan. He is a pretty good pitcher without much of a platoon split. He gets a decent amount of strikeouts and groundballs.

CL Ryan Franklin (R): 0.00 ERA, 1.74 BB/9, 7.84 K/9, 0.00 HR/9, 2.03 FIP, 46% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.7 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 52% fb, 23% sl, 11% sf, 10% cb, 3% ct, 1% ch
r/l: .754 vs .772 ops; 2.9 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: .738 vs .785 ops; 1.8 vs 1.9 k/bb

Franklin vs. Phillies:

Ibanez: 5/13, 2 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 1/9, 3 BB (1 IBB), 0 K, 1 HBP
Rollins: 1/8, 0 BB, 2 K
Utley: 2/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 1/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 2/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 1/2, 2 BB (2 IBB), 0 K
Werth: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Feliz: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Cairo: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Kyle McClellan (R): 3.09 ERA, 5.40 BB/9, 8.49 K/9, 0.77 HR/9, 4.22 FIP, 47% GB

proj avg: 3.70 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 49% fb, 29% cb, 16% ct, 3% ch, 3% sl
r/l: .754 vs .660 ops; 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .611 vs .800 ops; 2.4 vs 1.9 k/bb

McClennan vs. Phillies:

Rollins: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Utley: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 2/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Howard: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K

Dennys Reyes (L): 2.57 ERA, 2.57 BB/9, 5.14 K/9, 1.29 HR/9, 4.77 FIP, 56% GB

proj avg: 3.70 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 57%
pitches: 47% fb, 44% sl, 8% ch, 1% cb
r/l: .810 vs .663 ops; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: .721 vs .790 ops; 1.6 vs 1.7 k/bb

Reyes vs. Phillies:

Ibanez: 4/9, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Feliz: 0/2, 2 BB, 0 K
Cairo: 1/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Stairs: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K

Chris Perez (R): 2.57 ERA, 7.71 BB/9, 14.14 K/9, 1.29 HR/9, 4.48 FIP, 46% GB

proj avg: 3.90 ERA, 5.1 BB/9, 9.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 69% fb, 28% sl, 3% cb
r/l: .658 vs .800 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: .698 vs .722 ops; 2.8 vs 1.5 k/bb

Perez vs. Phillies:

Coste: 0/2, O BB, 1 K
Feliz: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Howard: 1 BB
Rollins: 1/1, 1 3B, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Jason Motte (R): 4.09 ERA, 3.27 BB/9, 7.36 K/9, 0.00 HR/9, 2.92 FIP, 50% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 8.3 HR/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 89% fb, 9% sl, 2% sf
r/l: .541 vs .580 ops; 5.0 vs 2.5 k/bb
h/a: not enough info

Motte vs. Phillies: no experience against any Phillies

Trever Miller (L): 5.40 ERA, 2.70 BB/9, 10.80 K/9, 2.70 HR/9, 5.60 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.9 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 60% fb, 28% sl, 12% ch, 1% cb
r/l: .835 vs .703 ops; 1.3 vs 2.6 k/bb
h/a: .812 vs .730 ops; 1.9 vs 1.8 k/bb

Miller vs. Phillies:

Howard: 2/7, 1 BB (IBB), 2 K, (also, 1 HR and 1 K in 2008 World Series)
Utley: 2/7, 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K (walk in 2008 WS)
Victorino: 2/6, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP (0/1 in 2008 WS)
Ibanez: 3/6, 1 2B, 1 3B, 0 BB, 1 K
Cairo: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac
Stairs: 0/3, 0 BB, 3 K
Rollins: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Brunlett: (0/1 in 2008 WS)

Blaine Boyer (R): 4.91 ERA, 0.00 BB/9, 7.36 K/9, 0.00 HR/9, 1.56 FIP, 58% GB

proj avg: 4.70 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 72% fb, 20% cb, 7% ch, 2% sl
r/l: .704 vs .816 ops; 3.0 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .705 vs .798 ops; 2.3 k/bb both ways

Boyer vs. Phillies:

Feliz: 0/4, 2 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Werth: 5/7, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Coste: 2/5, 1 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 2/4, 2 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 1/4, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 3/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 2/2, 2 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Victorino: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K

P.J. Walters (R): 9.58 ERA, 5.23 BB/9, 8.71 K/9, 2.61 HR/9, 6.76 FIP, 46% GB

proj avg: 4.90 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 43%
pitches: 62% fb, 20% sl, 17% ch, 1% cb
r/l: 1.6 vs 3.6 k/bb in AA/AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

Walters vs. Phillies: no experience against any Phillies

PHILLIES

LINE UP

The heart of the Phillies lineup leans further to the left than Ralph Nader. The rest of the lineup is pretty well balanced, but with Utley hitting 3rd, Howard hitting 4th, and Ibanez hitting 6th, managers have an advantage to use lefties against the Phillies in key situations. Both of the switch hitters atop the lineup hit lefties a little better than righties, and the bottom of the lineup has two righties. The Phillies' catcher Carlos Ruiz is on the disabled list now with a strained rib cage, so Chris Coste and Lou Marson have been splitting time with Coste starting more often. Lou Marson is a pretty highly touted catching prospect who had an extraordinary year in AA last year, though has yet to hit for much power. Carlos Ruiz had a setback but seems to be likely to return soon. This season, the Phillies have seen Rollins struggle at the top of the lineup, though he has shown a few signs of life recently. Utley and Ibanez have both been on fire and have carried the team. The offense has been spectacular thus far, mostly because of those two, and as Howard continues to hit the ball hard, the team is probably going to see a breakout from him soon too. Though Howard has only homered four times in the first twenty games, he has hit an extraordinary number of deep fly balls to the track, and no less than in seasons passed. I expect a homerun tear out of Howard soon, though reading through that, I kind of feel like I just predicted the sun to rise.

1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S): .200/.247/.278

projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb. otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.

2) CF Shane Victorino (S): .287/.340/.489

proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year

3) 2B Chase Utley (L): .342/.474/.671

proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters

4) 1B Ryan Howard (L): .281/.360/.494

proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep. also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though. probably above average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes. however, he is pretty good at distinguishing pulls from strikes despite the consensus on him. he makes terrible contact overall though
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!" in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably. his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp. he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip. i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road. very similar hr numbers. 2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position

5) RF Jayson Werth (R): .250/.368/.425

proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year

6) LF Raul Ibanez (L): .360/.424/.733

proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none

7) 3B Pedro Feliz (R): .338/.400/.473

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes. swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home. likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related

8) Carlos Ruiz (R): .231/.375/.308

proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey. his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lot
s/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers, currently on DL with strained rib cage, probably longer than 15 days as originally thought

BENCH

Like their lineup, the Phillies' bench is much better from the left side. Dobbs and Stairs are two solid lefthanded pinch hitters with power. Stairs is by far more patient and is much more successful against lefties than Dobbs. From the right side, the Phillies have superutility man Eric Bruntlett. Bruntlett struggles mightily against RHP, but actually has very solid numbers against LHP. Bruntlett can be used as a counterswitch when managers bring in lefties to face Dobbs or Stairs. The Phillies other RHB on the bench is Miguel Cairo. He is not a very good hitter, but is flexible and can play many positions. Cairo has failed to hit anything yet, and is bound to be on the way out.

IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R): .158/.250/.316

proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb. he should be used as a counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

IF Greg Dobbs (L): .150/.227/.150

proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters. given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp. in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp. he should never see them. absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers

OF Matt Stairs (L): .308/.438/.769

proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency

IF/OF Miguel Cairo (R): .000/.000/.000

proj: .255/.315/.335
bb: 7%
k: 15%
gb: 45%
iff: 11%
ifh: 7%
babip: not much power so slightly below average
s/c/z: okay eye, maybe a little above average; makes good contact
r/l: 1.6 vs 2.0 k/bb; .647 vs .735 ops
h/a: virtually no split at all, somewhat better walk rate at home
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

C Chris Coste (R): .182/.280/.273

proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat

ROTATION

The Phillies rotation has struggled a lot early, though they seem to be mostly struggling with bad luck rather than bad performances. Their walk and strikeout rates across the board are indicative that we should expect similar performances to last season, and their groundball rates haven't been out of the norm either. However, all of them seem to struggling on homeruns per flyball. This is known to be a luck based statistic, with little variance in skill level, so it is somewhat hard to believe that they would necessarily continue to perform this badly. However, it does seem coincidental that all of them would struggle with it at once. The Phillies go with Chan Ho Park Friday, in what is a very important fourth start for him. He has been poor in one start and mediocre in the other two, and the Phillies do have J.A. Happ ready to replace him if they want. His strong Spring Training performance was so good that it shattered any argument of "small sample size" and instead calls into question a biased sample, where he may have faced some weaker hitters. Even still, he seems to have a K/BB of about 2/1 thus far and that has to be a good sign. Hopefully he can fix up his luck on homeruns per flyball and batting average on balls in play. On Saturday, the Phillies will turn to Jamie Moyer. Moyer certaily is going to show his age at some point, and he really can't be expected to pitch until he's 50, but his poor performance this year also seems luck driven as his core statistics of strikeouts, walks, and groundballs seem in line with recent tendencies. The Phillies will wrap up with Joe Blanton on Sunday. Blanton seems to be missing a lot of bats, striking out an above normal 8.8 per nine, but when he doesn't miss those bats, the bats seem to hit the ball awful hard. Blanton hopes the Mets will make weaker contact.

MONDAY STARTER: Joe Blanton (R): 8.41 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 2.7 HR/9, 6.08 FIP, 33% GB

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games

Blanton vs. Cardinals:

Ludwick: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Molina: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Pujols: 0/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Schumaker: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
K. Greene: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

TUESDAY STARTER: Brett Myers (R): 4.83 ERA, 4.3 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 2.3 HR/9, 6.24 FIP, 48% GB

proj avg: 4.15 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 47%
pitches: 48% fb, 23% cb, 18% sl, 9% ch, 1% ct, 0.2% sf
r/l: .788 vs .747 ops despite 3.1 vs 1.95 k/bb; main issue is much higher HR rate vs rhb, slightly higher babip vs them as well; does not seem to be selection bias
h/a: .738 vs .800 ops; 2.7 vs 2.15 k/bb; slightly higher HR rate at home, but that is probably park factors as he surrenders far more doubles on road
other: HR rate is bizarre-- very few pitchers have the HR/Flyball rate he does. My personal suspicion is that statistics that don't exhibit much persistence despite what common sense suggests only do not exhibit persistence specifically because players make adjustments. If you throw fastball after fastball on the outside corner on every 1-2 count, the hitters will respond by hitting singles to the opposite field over and over again and your BABIP will go up. However, pitchers learn to mix up their pitches and BABIP ends up lacking persistence due to the constant game theoretical reaction that pitchers and hitters take. For Myers, his bizarre refusal to use his curveball early in the game leaves him especially vulernable to RHB who know it isn't coming. A little game theoretical mixed strategy would probably allow him to finally live up to his peripherals which suggest a low HR rate and borderline ace stuff.

Myers vs. Cardinals:

Pujols: 9/26, 1 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 3 K
Molina: 3/14, 0 BB, 3 K
Schumaker: 5/10, 1 2B, 2 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Duncan: 2/6, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
LaRue: 2/6, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Ludwick: 3/6, 2 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Ankiel: 2/4, 1 2B, 1 3B, 0 BB, 1 K
Boggs: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
K. Greene: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Chan Ho Park (R): 8.57 ERA, 4.7 BB/9, 4.7 K/9, 2.1 HR/9, 7.09 FIP, 45% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

Park vs. Cardinals:

Pujols: 3/7, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Molina: 0/5, 0 BB, 1 K
LaRue: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Ankiel: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
k. Greene: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Ludwick: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Cole Hamels (L): 7.27 ERA, 2.1 BB/9, 7.8 K/9, 2.6 HR/9, 5.89 FIP, 33% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant. ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar. most likely he strikes out more at night.

Hamels vs. Cardinals:

Pujols: 3/13, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
K. Greene: 1/9, 1 BB, 1 K
Molina: 1/9, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 SF
Ludwick: 4/8, 2 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Ankiel: 2/5, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Duncan: 0/4, 1 BB, 3 K
Schumaker: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Jamie Moyer (L): 5.65 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 5.3 K/9, 2.2 HR/9, 6.43 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets

Moyer vs. Cardinals:

K. Greene: 2/14, 1 BB, 1 K
Ludwick: 1/12, 1 BB, 6 k
Pujols: 2/10, 1 Bb, 2 K
Ankiel: 0/5, 1 BB, 1 K
Duncan: 2/4, 1 2B, 2 BB, 2 K
Molina: 3/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Schumaker: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K

BULLPEN

Lidge has been nowhere near as effective as the Phillies closer in the early going this year, but has gotten through a few tough saves anyway. However, that still leaves him as one of the best closers in baseball if he is healthy. His health itself has been in question as he has been resting an injured knee for a few days. He has not gone on the disabled list and may not, and we will probably no more after a Friday bullpen session. In his stead, Ryan Madson has closed out one game successfully in one try. Ryan Madson has stepped up to be an elite setup man recently, as his velocity improved mightily over the course of 2008 and has started strong in 2009. He has had a few bad moments and a few moments of dominance thus far. The Phillies will have to make do against LHB with J.C. Romero suspended through May. Scott Eyre, Jack Taschner, and J.A. Happ are the Phillies' lefties in the pen. Happ does not have especially difficult stuff against lefties, though, and will probably be the long man. Eyre and Taschner both should not face RHB, especially Taschner who exemplified that inability well against the Nationals on Thursday. Chad Durbin is somewhat streaky, but I've remained bearish on him for a while. He still is a reasonable middle reliever to use at times. Condrey is the other middle reliever, but he should not face lefties at all if possible. The Phillies' bullpen has been extraordinary since the beginning of 2008, and has kept them in games in 2009 thus far. It is due for some regression, but I suppose the rotation is due for some improvement as well.

CL Brad Lidge (R): 6.52 ERA, 6.5 BB/9, 11.2 K/9, 2.8 HR/9, 7.22 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Lidge vs. Cardinals:

Pujols: 4/17, 1 2B, 4 BB (2 IBB), 3 K, 1 SF
Molina: 1/8, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
k. Greene: 0/6, 0 BB, 5 K
LaRue: 0/6, 0 BB, 5 K
Ludwick: 0/5, 1 BB, 4 K
Ankiel: 2/4, 1 3B, 0 BB, 2 K
Duncan: 2/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Schumaker: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Thurston: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Ryan Madson (R): 3.27 ERA, 4.9 BB/9, 13.1 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 1.91 FIP, 46% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all

Madson vs. Cardinals:

Pujols: 0/10, 2 BB, 0 K
K. Greene: 2/7, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
LaRue: 1/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 HBP
Ludwick: 2/5, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Duncan: 2/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Molina: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Schumaker: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
Ankiel: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Scott Eyre (L): 10.80 ERA, 10.8 BB/9, 10.8 K/9, 5.4 HR/9, 13.08 FIP, 33% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Eyre vs. Cardinals:

k. Greene: 2/3, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Molina: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Pujols: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Duncan: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Jack Taschner (L): 4.76 ERA, 6.4 BB/9, 4.8 K/9, 1.6 HR/9, 6.54 FIP, 37% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 57% fb, 30% sl, 13% ch
r/l: 1.45 vs 2.2 k/bb; .754 vs .747-- large selection bias where he faces only very good lefties and not very good righties
h/a: .698 vs .797 ops; 2.1 vs 1.5 k/bb

Taschner vs. Cardinals:

Duncan: 2/6, 0 BB, 1 K
K. Greene: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Schumaker: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Ludwick: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Ankiel: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Pujols: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chad Durbin (R): 4.50 ERA, 5.8 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, 1.9 HR/9, 6.54 FIP, 26% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise

Durbin vs. Cardinals:

Pujols: 3/5, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Ludwick: 2 BB
Ankiel: 1 IBB
K. Greene: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
LaRue; 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Molina: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Schumaker: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Clay Condrey (R): 1.26 ERA, 1.9 BB/9, 6.9 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.18 FIP, 46% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

Condrey vs. Cardinals:

LaRue: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Schumaker: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Barden: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Ludwick: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Ankiel: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Molina: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Pujols: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

J.A. Happ (L): 3.52 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 3.84 FIP, 30% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

Happ vs. Cardinals:

Schumaker: 1/3, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Ankiel: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
LaRue: 2/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Ludwick: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Pujols: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 k

SUSPENDED: J.C. Romero (L)

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB?9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

Romero vs. Cardinals:

Ankiel: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Ludwick: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Duncan: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
K. Greene: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Pujols: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Schumaker: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Brian Shouse Officially Signs With Rays; Juan Salas DFA

Tommy Rancel — Thu, 12 Feb 2009 23:42:50 -0000

We finally have an official deal after almost two weeks of waiting. The deal is for 1 yr worth $1.35 million with an option for 2010 at $1.90 million or a buyout of 200k. Shouse was worth 0.4 WAR last year or $1.8 million dollars. His overall numbers took a hit because of the way he was used. For some reason, he had more PA's vs. right handed batters (108) than left handed batters(104). That is bullpen mismanagement 101 and part of the reason Ned Yost is no longer a manager.

To make room for Shouse, The Rays have DFA'd Juan Salas, who probably will be picked up by another team. Salas had excellent minor league numbers, but never translated them into major league sucess. He pitched in a career high 34 games in 2007 and while his ERA was 3.72, his FIP was 6.13. Good luck to the Juice

For the Rays, Shouse is an upgrade over Trever Miller, who served as the team's loogy last year. Shouse at $1.35 million is below market value and also cheaper than Miller, who received a 1yr/~2 million dollar deal with the Cardinals this off season. Here is a breakdown of their numbers vs LHB.

2008	BAA	OBP	SLG
Shouse	0.180	0.196	0.290
Miller	0.209	0.327	0.382

Career	BAA	OBP	SLG
Shouse	0.212	0.264	0.325
Miller	0.235	0.327	0.382

Shouse is pretty much death to a left handed batter, so should see plenty of David Ortiz this year. He also joins Troy Percival as the old men on the young Rays team. In fact when camp opens, they will be playing along side Tim Beckham, who was just six months old when they were drafted in 1990

Here is our original post on the signing and welcome to the Rays Mr. Shouse

And here is Salas' DRB2009 profile:

Juan Salas RHP

Salas has had much success in the minor leagues, but that hasn't yet translated to the majors. He dominated AA and AAA in 2006 with K/9 rates of 13.50 and 10.36 before getting called up and throwing 10 innings for the big club. Salas threw most of his 2007 innings in the majors, racking up a 3.72 ERA but an ugly 6.13 FIP and low 6.44 K/9. His 2008 season was marred by visa problems that saw him miss a chunk of the start of the season, and a bout with epileptic seizures. He did throw 44.2IP in AAA with a 2.62 ERA and 2.28 FIP while maintaining a K/9 of over 10(10.68), but never really got a shot with at the major league level throwing just 6.1 innings.