SB Nation - Dan Wheeler

The Curious Case of Dan Wheeler: HR/uBB > 1

FreeZorilla — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 16:00:39 -0000

The Curious Case of Dan Wheeler

Dan Wheeler is on pace to join a very exclusive club this season. In the past 20 years there have only been four American League relievers with a minimum of 50 innings pitched who have allowed more home runs than walks in an individual season. The bad news is that Wheeler has allowed 11 Home Runs in only 55 innings pitched. The good news is that he has a strikeout to unintentional walk ratio of 5.9. Coupled with a BABIP of .203, it is clear Dan Wheeler does not allow a lot of base runners. BABIPs that low are pretty fluky, but Dan Wheeler finished 2008 at .202. Wheels has managed to increase his fly ball % year/year from 54.1% to 55.8%. Fly balls that do not leave the park result in outs far more than any other batted ball type. Now the 13.8% line drive rate is probably not sustainable.

So who is Wheeler's company in this club. It's a mixed bag for sure:

	HR/uBB	HR/9	K/9	uBB/9	FB%	BABIP
2003 Mike Timlin	1.83	1.2	7.0	0.6	28.50%	0.279
1991 Dennis Eckersley	1.83	1.3	10.3	0.7	N/A	0.278
2009 Dan Wheeler	1.57	1.8	6.7	1.1	55.80%	0.203
2003 Julio Mateo	1.17	1.5	7.5	1.3	51.40%	0.244
2008 Joel Peralta	1.07	2.6	6.5	2.4	47.60%	0.271

Timlin walked 2.82/9 for his career so 2003 represented a real outlier in terms of command. His home run rate was victimized by a HR/FB rate north of 15%.

Eck was a stud and a stud. No batted ball data was available but his 1.3 HR/9 broke a string of 7 years of sub-1 HR/9. His 14.7 K/BB ratio was quite nice.

Mateo ‘s season was probably the most similar to Wheeler's. Both are low walk-high fly ball pitchers. If you regress Wheeler and Mateo's HR totals to 10% HR/FB, Mateo would have allowed 1.35 HR/9 and Wheeler 1.42 HR/9.

Peralta is an interesting member of the club only because its shocking that a pitcher can give up 2.6 HR/9, have a BABIP of .271, and a 2.6 uBB/9 and make it all the way to the 50 inning requirement.

We have learned Dan Wheeler will give up home runs. He's probably not the safest option to protect a 1 run lead or hold a tied game. I have long railed against bringing him with runners on base. However, he does not allow base runners via walk or hit and is an excellent option for holding 2-3 run leads without working into a multi-run jam.

One More Crack at Dissecting Bullpen Usage

FreeZorilla — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 16:00:14 -0000

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Last week I took a look at how the Rays' 2009 high leverage FIP of 4.87 underperformed their season FIP of 4.36 while the average team fares 0.25 better (lower) in high leverage situations. I proposed that this was due to inefficient bullpen management. According to The Book by Tom Tango, pitchers should perform to the same ability regardless of situational leverage. Therefore, teams should use their best pitchers when the moment is the most critical.

	Low Lev	Med Lev	HI lev
TBR	4.61	4.1	4.87
AL AVG	4.51	4.52	4.25

If we are to further isolate High Leverage opportunities by the bullpen only we see this:

	OPS	FIP
Bullpen	0.713	4.32
BP Hi Leverage	0.791	5.18

The Rays have basically had a Big 3 in the bullpen this season comprised of J.P. Howell, Dan Wheeler, and Grant Balfour. Based on Tango's study referenced above, these 3 should be receiving the lion's share of high leverage work. Here are their high leverage numbers compared to the bullpen:

	OPS	FIP
BP Hi Leverage	0.791	5.18
Big 3 Hi leverage	0.653	4.07

So when the Big 3 have been called upon they have performed by about 0.25 better according to FIP than the bullpen. Yet, the bullpen overall has been a massive failure in high leverage situations. Is that because there were more high leverage innings than innings of availability for the big 3?

Consider this: 26.3% of batters faced by the bullpen were of the high leverage variety. The Big 3 have accounted for 42% of total bullpen usage. 60.3% of high leverage opportunities have gone to the big 3 which means Big 3 high leverage opportunities account for 16% of the overall bullpen use. So the big 3 account for 42% of total usage of which 16% is high leverage. This leave 2/5's of the high leverage spots to the rest of the cast. This does not seem to be the most efficient use of resources as the Big 3 should be able to sacrifice low and medium leverage opportunities for higher spots.

Another point Tommy Rancel has been all over is Joe Maddon's tendency to over extend a starter into a new inning, only to remove them upon the first runner reaching base. The bullpen's OPS against for 2009 is .713. With runners on base, it rises to .824. Similarly, the starting rotation's performance decreases drastically as the lineup flips over for the fourth time.

	OPS	FIP
Bullpen	0.713	4.32
BP w Runners On	0.824	4.37

	BA	OBP	SLG
1PA	0.250	0.319	0.409
2PA	0.261	0.330	0.415
3PA	0.264	0.325	0.435
4+PA	0.339	0.377	0.600

When a starting pitcher is near 100 pitches as the lineup flips for the fourth time around, the Rays would be well advised to turn it over to their bullpen with the bases empty. The fresh arm should experience greater success without the added pressure of inherited runners.

The last issue to discuss involves frequent pitcher changes once into the bullpen. The average Batters Faced per Relief Appearance in the American League since 2006 is 4.82. In 2009, the Rays are averaging 3.92. The second lowest figure over that period belongs to the 2007 Boston Red Sox at 4.15. Last season with largely the same bullpen the Rays were at 4.55.

The 2009 Rays bullpen is on pace for 507 total appearances or 3.13/gm which since 2006 is second only to the Yankees at 522. Lets take a look at the top 5 bullpens in terms of total appearances since 2006 and compare their Season FIP to that of August. Please note I pro-rated 2009:

Year	Team	Appearances	BF/App	FIPs	FIPa	difference
2007	NYY	522	4.49	4.64	4.69	-0.05
2009	TBR	507	3.92	4.36	5.2	-0.84
2008	BAL	492	4.97	4.74	5.13	-0.39
2007	BAL	490	4.92	4.85	5.37	-0.52
2006	NYY	489	4.63	4.47	4.8	-0.33
					Avg	-0.43
					Avg of All teams	0.04

So the top 5 most worked teams in terms of relief appearances since 2006 all suffered performance drop offs in August while the average change among all teams was a nominal improvement.

Now let's look at the five most taxed bullpens in terms of batters faced:

Year	Team	Batters Faced	BF/App	FIPs	FIPa	diff
2006	KCR	2581	5.46	4.97	5.26	-0.29
2008	TEX	2564	5.6	4.55	4.2	0.35
2007	TEX	2556	5.47	4.24	3.66	0.58
2008	BAL	2443	4.97	4.74	5.13	-0.39
2009	BAL	2,424	5.25	4.42	4.25	0.17
						0.084

This is much more in line with the average among all teams of .04. It seems that fewer bullpen appearances that go longer are less fatiguing over a season than more frequent shorter appearances. Perhaps the Rays have not accounted enough for the effort burned during warming up in the pen.

In summary, I am of the opinion that the Rays season was affected by misuse of the bullpen. The best relievers were not used frequently enough in high leverage situations. Starters were left in too long, often the dreaded fourth time around the order, forcing the pen to habitually come in with runners on base, a scenario in which they proved to be less effective. Finally, the entire bullpen broke down during the homestretch due to excessive turnover causing too many bullpen appearances.

Rays Bullpen Backdraft

Tommy Rancel — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 23:57:52 -0000

More photos » by Chris O'Meara - AP

Joe Maddon has blazed a trail from the dugout to the mound as the Maddon March rages on in September.

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A backdraft is a situation which can occur when a fire is starved of oxygen; consequently combustion ceases but the fuel gases and smoke remain at high temperature. If oxygen is re-introduced to the fire, eg. by opening a door to a closed room, combustion can restart often resulting in an explosive effect as the gases heat and expand.

That sort of describes what we've seen lately come the eight and ninth innings of games. Once Joe Maddon opens that bullpen door...boom. The Rays bullpen has been bad lately and that's putting it nicely. The pen has combined for 43 appearances and 26.2 innings of awful baseball this month. Once again, traditional or advanced metrics, it doesn't matter; they tell the same story.

This group of collective relievers has posted an ERA of 7.76 and an FIP of 6.86 in the month of September. We have not seen numbers that bad since the 2007 version of the Rays pen. The key is to not be shortsighted here. While there is no rhyme, reason or no sugar coating for how atrocious they have been recently, it is a small sample size compared to the full season.

If we look at this group's work over the course of the entire season, it should bring a few people back from the ledge. In 2009, the Rays bullpen has an ERA of 3.94 and a FIP of 4.35. Here is how they stack up to the bullpen of the current AL playoff teams...

	Innings	ERA	FIP
Rays	401.2	3.94	4.35
Yankees	445	4.00	4.5
Red Sox	410.1	3.66	4.01
Angels	417.2	4.59	4.41
Tigers	405	4.24	4.44

Overall, things have been pretty good. I don't here calls from any of these teams fans to blow up their bullpens and start from scratch. In fact, out of the five teams above only the Red Sox pen has been better this year. Also take into account that these numbers include the awful September as well as Troy Percival, Joe Nelson, Jeff Bennett and others.

Another thing I wanted to check was inherited runners. It seems that every night we see the same scenario; A Rays starter will be at or near the end of his rope. Maddon sends the starter back out to start the next inning and a runner reaches base. From there Maddon marches to the mound and here we go.

The Rays pen has been above average in terms of inherited runners scoring. The AL average for an inherited runner scoring is 35%. The Rays pen is at 32%. However, the Rays have allowed the second most inherited runners to score (102). How is this possible? Simple, the Rays pen has pitched to over 100 more inherited runners than the league average and faced 79 more inherited runners than the next closest team.

	IR	*IS%*
BAL	228	33
BOS	183	30
CHW	194	38
CLE	223	38
DET	201	34
KCR	236	46
LAA	203	29
MIN	222	36
NYY	219	27
OAK	198	36
SEA	151	31
TBR	315	32
TEX	191	37
TOR	164	37
AVG	209	35

It's pretty amazing when you think about how the pen has been used. A Rays reliever has entered the game with a runner on base 202 times this year. The next closest team is Cleveland with 139. Grant Balfour alone has inherited 63 runners (IS 29%). That is 14 more than the next reliever, who happens to be Randy Choate with 49.

As we head into the offseason there will certainly be turnover as there should. Andrew Friedman and his staff recognize bullpen volatility and are always looking at ways to improve their pen. Names like Percival, Nelson, Shouse, Bradford, Springer and Isringhausen will be gone freeing up space and money for the next crop. However, there is a solid core here that should remain in tact. J.P. Howell, Grant Balfour, Dan Wheeler and Lance Cormier are all under team control. And if we are smart about this and look at the whole season compared to the last two weeks, that's a good foundation.

	Innings	ERA	FIP
Howell	63.2	2.97	3.67
Wheeler	50.2	3.55	4.69
Balfour	60.2	4.9	3.75
Cormier	70.1	3.33	3.86

As was the case last season, if we can move Dan Wheeler and his shinny ERA I wouldn't be opposed to that. However, the other three should be back and probably at a combined $5 million dollars or less. Throw in a Dale Thayer type from within the organization, a LOOGY, and the Rays should once again have a thrifty, yet solid, bullpen.

One of the more annoying things about the upcoming offseason will be all the calls for a proven veteran closer. Look at the market. Do you want to throw money at Fernando Rodney? Jose Valverde? Trevor Hoffman? While I disagree with the notion of paying a reliever $8-10 million dollars (unless he is a true elite reliever), the Rays will have the flexibility to add a medium price ranged reliever (Joaquin Benoit? Kiko Calero?) should they chose to.

We all get frustrated and emotional at times especially during an eight game streak in which every game seems like a repeat of the last. However, sometimes we need to just step back, take a look and realize things could be worse. Afterall, 2007 was just two years ago and that was a whole year of pain not just two weeks.

Dan Wheeler's Big City Slider Adventure

Tommy Rancel — Tue, 18 Aug 2009 15:02:58 -0000

Dewayne Staats' favorite son-in-law. (Photo by Dennis Adair)

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Dan Wheeler does not like things to be balanced or even. Since rejoining the Rays in late 2007, Wheeler has either been really good or really bad. His 2008 started out fantastically, but he traded good and bad months from there on out. He ended with three months with a FIP greater than 6.1 and three months with a FIP less than 3.3. Overall, his numbers still suggested his campaign was a bit lucky and we figured additional regression would occur in 2009.

The predication held true and Wheeler's 2009 started off much like his 2008 ended; badly. In true Dan Wheeler fashion, he rebounded from really bad to really good. Staying true to form, Wheeler has had peaks and valleys all season.

Here is his monthly ERA/FIP over the last two seasons...

Wheeler	IP	ERA	FIP
April 08	13	1.38	3.29
May 08	13	2.77	6.52
June 08	12.1	1.46	2.73
July 08	8	3.38	6.13
August 08	12.2	4.26	2.97
Sept.08	7.1	7.36	6.81
Wheeler	IP	ERA	FIP
April 09	7.1	8.59	7.18
May 09	10	1.8	4.29
June 09	10	1.8	1.89
July 09	10	4.5	4.79
August 09	6.1	1.42	3.57

As you can see Wheeler 2009 has seen one really bad month, one really good month and a few months that have been around average.

One reason for the rebound after his awful April has been pitch selection. Search the archives in April and you'll find plenty of posts from Erik about how bad his fastball and fastball velocity was. It also happened to be the month he used his fastball the most.

	FB	SL	CB	CH
April 09	64.5	20.7	5	4.1
May 09	56.1	28.7	6.5	8.9
June 09	53.9	29.5	8.3	8.3
July 09	46.9	35.4	8.9	8.9
August 09	31	29.7	22.4	6.9

Surprising, his fastball was actually average for the month with a wFB of 0.0. In actuality, it was Wheeler's slider that was below average in April with a wSL of -0.6.

	wFB	wSL	wCB	wCH
April 09	0	-0.6	0.1	-1.1
May 09	0.4	0.1	0.6	0.9
June 09	-0.1	1.9	0.4	0.2
July 09	2.9	-0.5	0.7	-1.1
August 09	1.3	1.7	0.9	-1.3

Since then, "Big City" has fallen in love with ~~tiny burgers~~ his slider. It does seem that his success is tied into his slider; luckily it's been good more often than not. You'll notice his slider was below average in July, and again, it's no surprise that July was his second worst month of the season. Also make note that since minimizing his fastball use, it has made the pitch more effective. He has also added a few ticks to the heater each month.

	FB Velo
April 09	87.1
May 09	88.2
June 09	88.5
July 09	88.7
August 09	89.1

So far in the month of August, we are seeing Wheeler use three of his four pitches in unison. It is also good news that all three are slightly above average right now. What this tells us going forward is anyone's guess. If I've learned anything from watching the Rays co-record holder for strikeouts in a game, it is that he is as predicable as a heart attack.

Another thing that we've discussed about Wheeler is his contract. I'll admit at the time of the deal I was very happy with the signing. Knowing what I know now about reliever volatility, the deal doesn't seem as good as it did back then. I'm pretty sure that Andrew Friedman won't be throwing big money at a reliever any time soon unless it's J.P. Howell or someone equal to him. As I wrote earlier this summer, giving big money extensions to non-elite relievers is not a good practice. In hindsight, the Rays probably should've just used Wheeler up and tossed him aside, but we'd all be perfect GM's with hindsight.

Why High Priced Non-Elite Relievers Aren't Worth the Money

Tommy Rancel — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 07:00:15 -0000

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We've heard plenty of times this year about how the Rays need to add a veteran pitcher with closing experience. After Troy Percival's back, arm, and legs gave out along with Jason Isringhausen's arm blowing up, the Rays were left with a rag tag group of pitchers. No current member has held the Rays closer except for Dan Wheeler, who held it ever so briefly in Houston. Not only has the Rays pen not sunk without a true anchor, they've actually been really good. Coming as Thursday afternoon, the Rays were second in bullpen ERA (3.48) and fourth in FIP (3.89). The group also boasts the third best K/BB and fourth best HR/9. Not bad for a group with no names.

Here are the monthly breakdowns...

	IP	ERA	FIP	K/BB
April	63.1	3.84	4.1	1.81
May	101	4.19	4.6	1.84
June	70	1.67	2.61	3.1
July	66.1	4.21	4.08	2.5
August	14.2	2.45	3.28	2.75

The Rays pen was really never as bad as we thought. Sure, May was not pretty, but it was a far cry from Rays bullpens of the past. The Rays May bullpen also included veteran closer, Troy Percival, who allowed six earned runs in six innings and had a 9.00 ERA/7.57 FIP on the month. Since then, J.P. Howell and Co. have shut down teams more often than not. Every bullpen has a few hiccups along the way, but the Rays have a solid nucleus of guys with no defined titles. " As Dan Wheeler said the Rays don't need defined roles, but everyone has a job and understand that job. "Most of us just kind of understand when we're going to pitch." said Wheeler.

Could the Rays use another one of those non-descript arms like Jason Frasor or Michael Wuertz? Definitely, but the days of paying a veteran reliever a lot of money are likely over for the Rays. Just look at the production they've gotten from the collective group of Jason Isringhausen, Troy Percival, Chad Bradford, Joe Nelson and Brian Shouse aka the Rays relievers who are 34 years or older.

	IP	ERA	FIP	Salary
Percival	11.1	6.35	6.86	$4.45
Bradford	4.1	2.08	1.69	$3.50
Isringhausen	8	2.25	4.2	$0.75
Shouse	16.1	5.51	5.95	$1.35
Nelson	40.1	4.02	5.62	$1.30
	79.4	4.042	4.864	$11.35

Thats over $11 million dollars for what equates to be around league average production. If you take away Nelson, who is currently in Durham, the Rays will pay over $10 million dollars in salary to four relievers who have pitched less than 40 innings combined. Percival and Izzy are done for the season. Bradford is on the DL for the second time with no time table of returning (although I'd expect September at the latest) and Shouse is just returning from his injury. Percival's production was just awful even if it was just a small sample size. I think we all know that had he continued it would've only gotten worse. Isringhausen was ok, but was too small of a sample. Bradford and Shouse are still effective when used properly, but we have guys like Lance Cormier and Randy Choate, who have sub 4 FIPs and will make just a little over a million dollars combined.

The signings of Nelson and Shouse were not bad signings because of their length. Both essentially are on one year deals even though the Rays hold Nelson's rights for future seasons and a club option on Shouse for 2010. I'm not saying avoid all veteran relief pitchers, but signing non elite level veteran relievers to anything more than a one year deal is volitle. I'm not telling any of you guys anything new . Getting less production with a greater injury risk for more money just doesn't make sense for any team let alone the Rays. Most "experts" will continue to say the Rays need a closer, and I'm sure on all the offseason "wish lists" there will be "closer" in the box next to the Rays, but it's not necessary.

The Rays almost certainly will once again pass on the big name who have the closer title attached to them inflating their price. Instead, the team should seriously consider locking up J.P. Howell, who is one of the games true young elite relievers, as well as continue to bargain shop for the next Howell, Grant Balfour or Lance Cormier.

What a Jason Frasor Type Means to the Rays

R.J. Anderson — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 18:23:22 -0000

Time to address what another reliever would bring to the team.

Let's take Jason Frasor. 2.47 FIP so far, ZiPS has him at 2.96 moving forward. Toronto's usage has left him with a 1.36 pLI this year, which would rank second on the Rays, just ahead of Dan Wheeler and essentially equal to Chad Bradford. Thanks to those two factors, Frasor has been worth 1.2 wins this season. For comparison, Wheeler has a 4.31 FIP and 1.21 pLI but has only been worth 0.2 WAR.

Relievers are ultimately valueless in comparison to other positions. J.P. Howell has been awesome and he's still shy of 2 WAR. Last year he was awesome and finished with 1.5 WAR. We expected Cliff Lee to give us about 1.5 WAR heading forward, let's take a look at the amount of relievers who finished with 1.5 for the entire season over the years:

2008: 18

2007: 22

2006: 20

That means expecting anything close to that for someone like Frasor is ludicrous. If Frasor simply pitches 30 innings for the Rays at his current rate, he'll be worth about a win for the team, but here's the caveat: he won't. A) He's not going to pitch the highest leveraged innings as he did during Scott Downs absence, and B) He's unlikely to pitch as well. That means you should expect even less than a win from perhaps the best relief option available.

Someone like Frasor would help the Rays, but has no illusions of him being overly necessary.

There's an entire chain of events that could happen if the Rays acquire someone like Frasor that I didn't get into. Since he's only here for a year and a third, and Howell is entering arbitration, the Rays could save money by shifting Howell back to relief ace status and implementing Frasor in the 9^th. Or Frasor could take some high leverage innings as the Rays ‘platoon' relievers based on match-ups. There's also the impact of having less Dan Wheeler (or whomever) in high leverage spots which plays a factor, and the price that Frasor would require in prospects.

I Love Tradition!

R.J. Anderson — Thu, 23 Jul 2009 02:28:07 -0000

via brooksbaseball.net

Either both are balls or both are strikes. The plate didn't change width, the batter didn't change height. Seriously, this ruins enjoyment a whole lot more than PED ever did.

Are Tampa Bay Rays Buyers Or Sellers At the 2009 MLB Trade Deadline?

Tommy Rancel — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 10:00:15 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Riedel - AP

Carl Crawford would draw a lot of interest should the Rays make him available.

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The Rays made history in 2008. In 2009, history does not look to be on their side. Thanks to this nifty piece by DRB friend Jonah Keri, we can see the odds are stacked against the Rays making the playoffs this season. Going back to 1995, the first year of the wild card, he found out the percentages of what teams made the playoffs based on their standings at the all star break. Here are the numbers from Keri's article

GB	% of Playoffs
Divison Ldr	69
2-5	47
5.5-8	13
8.5+	3.8

As you can see division leaders at the all star break make the playoffs almost 70% of the time. Now this is a bit skewed since the numbers include the wildcard. Conversely, the wildcard also affects teams like the San Francisco Giants, who are seven games out of first place, but would be a playoff team right now as the NL wildcard.

The Rays currently sit 6.5 games out of first place or in the 5.5-8 range. Since 1995, only three of 20 teams 6.5-7 games out of first place have made the playoffs (15%). The Rays are three back of the wild card, but have failed to make up any real ground on the Yankees. With the trade deadline 16 days away, the Rays are going to be faced with some tough decisions should the gap between them and the teams their chasing continue to remain stagnant.

Personally, I think if the Rays are three games or less behind the wild card around July 31^st then we should look to add rather than sell. However, if they aren't able to make up ground out of the break then we could see a dramatic roster change should the Rays choose to be "sellers." Now I use the term sellers, but I don't mean moving James Shields and his team friendly contract. We all know that there is going to be some turnover from the 2009 roster to the 2010 roster; payroll dictates that much. And we all know the names out there that make the most sense. The Rays have a handful of very desirable and very valuable chips most notably Carl Crawford. I know people will say Scott Kazmir, but coming off an injury Kaz's value is lower than it should be. I think we would be better suited keeping Kazmir and explore something in the off-season if anything

Crawford would easily be the most desired bat on the market. I know Matt Holliday could be available, but CC is younger, having a better offensive season, is miles better defensively and is not just a two month rental. At age 27, CC is prime for another five year extension. I'd love for that to be here, but the economics may not work out.

Outside of Crawford, the Rays have a number of valuable pieces in the bullpen. Every year every contending team is looking to add to their bullpen. Names like Dan Wheeler, Chad Bradford, and even Joe Nelson could be very popular should the Rays decide to move some pieces. Wheeler has rebounded from a terrible start. He now sports an above average 3.58 ERA/3.95 ERA and his 3.14 K/BB is also stellar. He is owed the rest of his $3.2 million dollar salary for 2009 as well as $3.5 million for 2010. There is a $4 million dollar option for 2011 or a $1 million dollar buyout. For some teams that is a very affordable contract for at worst a league average reliever.

Bradford hasn't been sharp since his return, but I'm sure if made available, he would draw some interest now that most of his $3.5 million dollar salary for 2009 is paid. Bradford can still get ground balls with the best of them and has had a bit of bad luck since his return. Joe Nelson has had a down year (4.50 ERA/5.71 FIP), but at a pro-rated amount of the $1.3 million he is scheduled to make in 2009, I'm sure teams would like to add him.

There are others names there too, but we've already rosterbated enough. Truly, I hope this post becomes obsolete once we start playing games on Friday, but I'd be lying if said that I haven't considered the worst. The last thing I want to do is give up on 2009, but the gap remains as wide as it is or wider, than the smart move would be to make this team better for the future.

Dan Wheeler's Life is Boring

R.J. Anderson — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 15:52:15 -0000

Colin Wyers ran a fantastic piece on predicting ERA a few days ago. Read it here. The basic summary:

- As a predictive tool, ERA is bloody horrible.*

- FIP is better than ERA by almost half a run.

- tRA is slightly better than FIP.

- xFIP is slightly better than tRA.

And after consulting with Graham, he hinted that tRA* is slightly better than xFIP by about the same margin between tRA/FIP. I wanted to expand on this, partially because I think we all need a refresher on how poor ERA is, but also because we need to get an idea on the true talent levels of our pitchers to date.

Pitcher	RA	ERA	FIP	xFIP	tRA	tRA*
Price	4.15	3.46	4.75	4.29	5.85	4.91
Balfour	5.29	5.01	3.74	4.68	5.11	5.02
Cormier	2.57	2.57	3.23	4.45	3.41	4.24
Howell	2.08	1.82	2.31	2.9	2.74	3.73
Kazmir	8.08	7.69	5.56	5.75	6.6	5.22
Sonny	6.72	6.6	5.35	4.75	6.15	5.23
Nelson	5.58	4.7	5.83	5.08	6.05	4.92
Shields	3.81	3.36	3.59	4	4.53	4.66
Garza	3.93	3.83	4.48	4.28	5.21	4.85
Niemann	4.73	4.23	4.82	5.49	5.41	5.18
Wheeler	4.63	4.24	4.43	4.4	4.67	4.59

The metrics listed are pretty self-explanatory. I've thrown in run average (RA) which is ERA, only with unearned runs tacked on. Believe it or not, RA is a better predictor of future performance than ERA. Here are some thoughts:

- Dan Wheeler is the closest thing the Rays have to Akinori Iwamura the pitcher. Not in terms of talent, but rather predictability. The four good metrics possess a standard deviation of 0.13, by far the lowest on staff. If you like consistency, he's your guy; if you like good performances, he's probably in the middle.

- Home run regression is the tale of Jeff Niemann/Andy Sonnanstine. xFIP projects Sonny to regress better, while tRA* essentially says it's a tie. You have to wonder how many teams, like Seattle, will attempt and buy low on Sonnanstine. Perhaps the real question is whether any teams will bite Niemann's apple.

- David Price is up and down. Owner of the highest deviation, Price is liked by the regressed metrics, albeit nowhere close to the RA/ERA level of infatuation.

- Joe Nelson hasn't turned out quite as planned. His RA is nearly an entire run higher than his ERA. The good metrics say he ranges from replacement level to "not that awful". tRA* shows the most forgiveness and regresses Nelson's career high HR/FB% by quite a bit.

- How to know you're good, part one: J.P. Howell's xFIP is 3.

- How to know you're good, part two: James Shields' xFIP is 4.

- None of the metrics really agree on how good or bad Balfour is. FIP loves him, xFIP cautions against the homer rate, tRA is meh, and tRA* is a slightly more enthusiastic meh.

A lot of people are probably reading and wondering why we'd turn to regressed models. All of these players belong to a common fraternity of major leaguers. David Price has fantastic stuff, but at the end of the day, he's still a major league starting pitcher. That means we should regress towards that, if only to be conservative in our estimations. That's why we can look at a player like Joe Nelson and say, "Well, he's been unlucky," without resorting to clichés or only anecdotal evidence.

When in doubt: regress, regress, regress.

Toxic sting of Rays' bats the first real challenge to the Rox rotation in weeks

Poseidon's Fist — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 21:30:12 -0000

More photos » by Steve Nesius - AP

Who's the most valuable hitter in Major League Baseball? Hint: he plays for the Rays, but his name is not Evan, Carlos or Carl.

Browse more photos »

Rollin', rollin', rollin'. Though the Rays are golden. Keep those Rockies rollin'....

Are you scared of the Tampa Bay Rays?

You probably ought to be. Yeah, yeah I know. They got off to a tough start - just 9-14 in April in fact. But no team has underachieved like the reigning AL Champions, yet here they are, three games over .500 in easily the most difficult division in MLB. They have a five game winning streak - yes, three came against the Nationals, but they still deserve credit for actually winning the games.

They have been victims of an inordinate number of 1-run games, losing 13 of their 31 games alone by a single run. Moreover, that 8-13 barely squeaked past the Rockies' own abysmal one-run record this weekend when they took two one run games from the Nationals.

Any time a team has a poor one-run showing, it's interesting to see their run differential. And Tampa's is telling. They are 2nd in MLB, ahead of the mighty Red Sox Nation and trailing the Los Angeles Dodgers by just 12 runs. This team is scary. As you'll soon see, their offense is astonishingly impressive while the arms that helped carry them to the ALCS have yet to pitch to their potential. Despite their record and the tough division, Baseball Prospectus gives them the best chance in the AL to make the playoffs outside of the Red Sox.

Also, check out DRaysBay, Tampa's SBNation site and home of RJ Anderson, who writes for Fangraphs as well. Here is their series preview. Go be nice to them.

Tampa Bay Rays (34-31, W5, t-3rd)

Tuesday-Thursday : 3-game series at Coors Field

The Bats: A+

This is where we can really evaluate the Rockies staff. We haven't allowed more than 4 runs in the eleven game streak, but of our last three opponents, there were really only five hitters to be afraid of - Ichiro, Russell Branyan, Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, and Albert Pujols. Those were three pretty poor offenses as a whole. Tampa Bay is completely different.

You have Evan Longoria near the top of the AL in RBIs and the 2nd most valuable hitter in the majors via Fangraphs. Then there Carlos Pena, who leads the AL in HRs with 20. How about Jason Bartlett, who is coming off the DL today yet ranks as a top 20 most valuable hitter in MLB despite missing over three weeks? The dude has an wOBA of .460 and would lead MLB with his .373 average if he qualified - how's that for getting tossed in the Matt Garza/Delmon Young deal?

Then of course, there's this guy that leads MLB in Fangraphs value despite not even having enough qualifying at-bats. You need to know Ben Zobrist. He has played every position except 1B, C and P and is a legit 30/30 threat. That means the top two most valuable hitters in MLB play in Tampa, and Bartlett was #4 when he got injured.

Oh right, then there's Pat Burrell, playoff hero BJ Upton, who has not regained that magic - and Carl Crawford, who is by far and away MLB's best base-stealer. Are you surprised they rank #1 in runs scored and are second in wOBA? That's probably first with park adjustments. They are also #1 in speed and 4th in HR.

LINEUP	Avg	HR	RBI
B.J. Upton - CF	.218	3	15
Carl Crawford - LF	.316	5	29
Evan Longoria - 3B	.305	14	58
Carlos Pena - 1B	.240	20	48
Ben Zobrist - RF	.309	13	38
Jason Bartlett- SS	.373	7	30
Willy Aybar - 2B	.274	5	20
Dioner Navarro - C	.205	4	19

That lineup is very much a guess. But in that lineup, there are three players that are ridiculously elite by wOBA standards (Bartlett, Zobrist and Longoria), two that are solid All-Stars talents (Crawford and Pena) and one comfortably above average (Aybar). Navarro and Upton fall in the below average category. I'll admit some of these players are playing over their heads, but I'm just reporting the facts. These guys have been very good this season.

Joe Maddon will need to get Pat Burrell (.241, 1 HR, 17 RBI) into games (maybe 1B against DLR tonight?) as well as the hot-hitting Gabe Kapler (.202, 3, 11). Gabe Gross (.272, 4, 22) has started in RF frequently and prospect Matt Joyce earned his callup a couple weeks ago ~~and is on the bench as well~~ and was sent down to bring Pat Burrell off the DL. Michel Hernandez is the backup catcher.

The Arms: C+

Joe Maddon has some very talented arms at his disposal, but they haven't been getting the desired results. You might be surprised to know that Jason Hammel, the Ray castoff, has not only been performing better the man who beat him out, tonight's starter Jeff Niemann, but he's been better than every Tampa starter if you go by tRA. In fact, the Rockies have five starters with better tRA's than Tampa's best starter James Shields. Only Cook fails to match Shields. By this method, the Rockies have the pitching advantage in each game of the series.

For a less sabermetric angle: they are ranked 16th in ERA (rotation 20th, bullpen 9th), 21st in runs allowed, 19th in FIP and 22nd in HR/9. They should get better, but right now, they are a below average staff. Prominent names in the bullpen are J.P. Howell, Grant Balfour, Joe Nelson, and Dan Wheeler.

The D: C+

The Rays have made 44 errors, tied for 6th most in MLB, which has led to 24 unearned runs; however, they are a very athletic team that can make a lot of plays, as evidenced by their 5th ranking in UZR/150.

Probable Pitchers:

Tonight, 6:40 pm MDT

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Jeff Niemann	5-4	4.12	1.45	42	27

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Jorge De La Rosa	2-6	5.08	1.41	72	32

Wednesday, June 17, 6:40 pm MDT

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - David Price	1-0	2.37	1.63	26	18

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Aaron Cook	5-3	4.26	1.39	39	27

Thursday, June 18, 1:10 MDT

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Matt Garza	4-4	3.63	1.19	73	34

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Ubaldo Jimenez	5-6	3.92	1.38	69	35

Gabe Kapler has a home run in each of his last three games. Carlos Pena (9-for-23, 3 HR) has started to heat up the last seven days after cooling off a bit in May while Ben Zobrist (9-for-23, 2 HR) and Gabe Gross (7-for-20, 1 HR) are hot as well.

Evan Longoria (4-for-23, 1 HR) is actually not hitting well for what seems like the first time in his career, and B.J. Upton has managed just six singles in his past 30 ABs.

Akinori Iwamura (knee) went on the 60-day DL last month, and Jason Isringhausen just lost his season and possibly career due to Tommy John surgery. Chad Bradford (elbow), Shawn Riggans (shoulder), Scott Kazmir (quad), Troy Percival (shoulder) and Brian Shouse (elbow) are all on the 15-day DL.

Poll

How much Rays can the Rockies handle in June?

None. We'll completely melt down, season's hopes flooded with losing a series sweep

20 votes

Some - The Rays will expose our staff, but we'll still get one game

30 votes

Most of it - We probably can't sweep them, but we're too hot to lose a series, especially against a team with only 2 road series wins

60 votes

All of it - Bring on the Pirates in a quest for 17!

20 votes

130 votes | Poll has closed