SB Nation - Jack Wilson

Fantasy Baseball: Same As It Ever Was

raygu — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 17:00:26 -0000

by Mark J. Terrill - ASSOCIATED PRESS

7 days ago: Los Angeles Dodgers' Juan Pierre dives into third for a triple during the first inning of a baseball game against the Colorado Rockies, Sunday, Oct. 4, 2009, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

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On a daily basis, I look forward to reading Buster Olney's blog to see if I can sift some nuggets of information that can help me in my fantasy leagues. Yesterday morning, he posted the following:

Coco Crisp is nearing a deal with the Oakland Athletics, according to late word from MLB Trade Rumors' Tim Dierkes. Presumably Crisp will slot into Oakland's center field and be flanked by Ryan Sweeney and Rajai Davis to make up a strong defensive outfield. This is yet another sign that teams that are most shaped by statistical analysis have determined that defense is the undervalued asset in the current marketplace.

He goes on to talk about the Red Sox recent signing of Mike Cameron to play left field, and the Mariners decision to re-sign shortstop Jack Wilson. We have also seen the White Sox trade for Juan Pierre. Other than Wilson, the 3 guys mentioned have one thing in common for fantasy owners. They can steal bases. They can run fast and they can play good defense.

These trades and signings mark a change in roster construction philosophy that could expand over the next few years. As Olney stated, defense is the undervalued asset in the marketplace. Teams are putting more emphasis on pitching and defense after a decade or so emphasizing the long ball in the steroid era.

It is time for fantasy owners to take notice as we may see a switch to small ball where pitching, defense and speed are emphasized more. Will we see more Coco Crisp/Juan Pierre types winning position battles because he can steal a base and play good defense? This could lead to an increase in stolen bases and a continued drop in home runs and runs scored in 2010 and beyond.

Should the roster construction philosophy of major league teams change to emphasize speed and defense, fantasy owners will have to factor that into their draft day strategy as speed guys will become more abundant and power guys become that much more expensive.

On a separate note, could this change in philospophy lead to the elimination of the designated hitter in the American League?

Poll

As we see more and more teams emphasize improving their defense, will this lead to the elimination of the DH?

Free Agent Profile: Miguel Tejada

davoag — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 13:00:13 -0000

by Alex Brandon - AP

The market for Tejada will be tough to ascertain.

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Lots to talk about since the last time we looked at the free agency market. In this profile of what kind of deal Miguel Tejada may get, I thought it prudent to look at two important facts. First, how much will the Astros have available to spend?

If, as Wade said, the Astros will reduce payroll in 2010, that means their number will be lower than the 102 million they spent on Opening Day 2009. How much less is up for debate. After arbitration raises to Hunter Pence, Wandy Rodriguez and others, the Astros will have about 80 million committed already in 2010. Assuming the Astros lop 12 million off last year's number, that leaves them with 10 million to spend. Seems about right, doesn't it?

It's still what we've been projecting as their available room since the offseason began, before Wade confirmed it was the case. We'll get to my theory on how much Tejada will cost, but that's not a lot of money to spend to fill a couple of glaring holes.

The second thing to look at is the current market for third baseman. It may not be a foregone conclusion that Tejada will have to switch positions, his bat seems to fit more in line with the corner of the infield market. Of that list, Tejada is probably not going to get the richest deal and possibly not the third-richest deal. I still think he commands a good chunk of change, though. The question is, does it make more sense for the Astros to spend on Tejada or a guy like Pedro Feliz? Just some things to think about when looking at last winter...

The Shortstops

Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles Dodgers

Contract Details: 3 years, 30 million (09-6.5m, 10-8.5m, 11-12m, 12-12m option)

Notes: Furcal entered last year's market after totaling just 164 plate appearances. Still, the then-31-year old posted a wOBA of .440 and a UZR/150 of -15.2. The Dodgers still rewarded Furcal with the richest contract any shortstop earned last winter. Furcal's defense has been all over the boards the past couple of years, but I think it's safe to say conventional wisdom shows he's was better defensively heading into last offseason than Tejada is now. Consider this contract the upper boundary of what Tejada can expect.

Nick Punto, Minnesota Twins

Contract Details: 2 years, 8.5 million (09-4.25m, 10-4.25m, 11-5m option)

Notes: The 30-year old got this contract coming off a season where he played 99 games. Punto hit pretty decently when he did play, posting a wOBA of .324 and had a UZR/150 of 17.9. Punto is a much better fielder than Tejada, but can't hit nearly as well. He's also younger, but couldn't get more than a two-year deal in last year's market.

Orlando Cabrera, Oakland A's

Contract Details: 1 year, 4 million

Notes: Cabrera couldn't have illustrated the plight of Type A free agents any better. With no team willing to give up draft picks for a 34-year old shortstop coming off a season where he posted a wOBA of .316 with excellent defense (by all accounts). Obviously, Cabrera falls into the same situation as Punto. Both players were good defense, bad bat types, which makes them the exact opposite of Tejada. Still, it may be hard for Tejada to get more than a one-year deal this winter.

Cesar Izturis, Baltimore Orioles

Contract Details: 2 years, 5 million (09-2.4m, 10-2.6m)

Notes: Another good defensive shortstop that posted a sub-par wOBA heading into his free agency period. Izturis got a multi-year deal and performed admirably for Baltimore. His contract is lower than the deals that Punto and Cabrera ended up with, but not for a lack of offense. In fact, the only difference tangibly between these three players is that the other two had a better defensive reputation and Izturis had a down year offensively with the Cardinals in 2008. Of course, I say 'reputation' about defense since there is not much difference in the three's defensive stats.

Edgar Renteria, San Francisco Giants

Contract Details: 2 years, 18.5 million (09-7m, 10-9.5m, 11-10.5m option)

Notes: While Renteria's defense wasn't as bad as Tejada's, at least by UZR, Renteria also didn't post as good a wOBA as Tejada's. It fits that Renteria would be the best shortstop comparable for Tejada, though by all accounts, his defense is good enough to stay at short for a little while longer. This deal, though, feels like something Tejada could end up with this winter.

The Third Basemen

Casey Blake, Los Angeles Dodgers

Contract Details: 3 years, 17.5 million (09-5m, 10-6m, 11-5.25m, 12-6m option)

Notes: Now we move into the third basemen that hit the market last winter. Blake had a great run with the Dodgers after being traded to Los Angeles and was locked up to a reasonable deal. Blake more than outperformed his contract in 2009, but his deal was the richest given to a potential third base free agent last winter. If Tejada moves to the hot corner, look for his deal to be in this range.

Ty Wigginton, Baltimore Orioles

Contract Details: 2 years, 6 million (09-2.5m, 10-3.5m)

Notes: Ahh, the dearly departed Astro, Wigginton signed with Baltimore for two years at a very reasonable 6 million. Wigginton probably was over-extended as a third baseman and only played 39 games there in 2009. Wigginton was close to as valuable offensively as Tejada but wasn't good defensively at third. Tejada's advantage over this deal is that he's moving from a premium defensive position to third, instead of moving off third like Wigginton.

The Utility Players

Ramon Vasquez, Pittsburgh Pirates

Contract Details: 2 years, 4 million (09-1.75m, 10-2m)

Notes: There is a lot of Wigginton here too, as Vasquez wasn't as good offensively as Tejada nor was he as good defensively (comparatively, that is). Still, Vasquez landed a role with the Pirates and a reasonable contract. This reminds me too much of a Geoff Blum signing instead of what Tejada will fetch.

Mark Loretta, Los Angeles Dodgers

Contract Details: 1 year, 1.25 million

Notes: At this point in his career, Loretta was going to be nothing more than a valuable addition off the bench. His contract reflects this and though he could still play third base in a pinch (Loretta played 23 games in 2009), but this is more like the contract Tejada may get in two years.

The Outlier

Willie Bloomquist, Kansas City Royals

Contract Details: 2 years, 3.1 million (09-1.4m, 10-1.7m)

Notes: Remember when we were talking about Jose Valverde? And we saw all the crazy stuff that Dayton Moore has done? Fit the Bloomquist signing into that vein. The utility player with the Mariners was given a multi-year, multi-million dollar contract and played mostly in the outfield for the Royals. This was just a weird signing all around.

Non-Free Agents of Note

Edwin Encarnacion, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays

Contract Details: 2 years, 7.6 million (09-2m, 10-4.7m)

Notes: This starts a couple of third basemen who recently signed contracts, before they get to free agency. With Encarnacion, the Reds were simply buying out a couple of arbitration years, but the numbers fit into the overall picture of what Tejada could command. Interestingly enough, the Reds traded Encarnacion to the Blue Jays mid-season for Scott Rolen.

Chipper Jones, 3B, Atlanta Braves

Contract Details: 3 years, 42 million (10-13m, 11-13m, 12-13m, 13-7m option)

Notes: Jones is the outlier of all outliers, since he's a franchise icon in Atlanta and could end up in the Hall of Fame some day. The Braves couldn't have let Chipper walk out the door, but after flirting with .400, his leverage was very high to get a huge deal done. Thus, this three-year deal, averaging 13 million per. Was an aging player worth this? I'm not sure, but it's definitely going to be the contract Tejada's agent bases his sales pitches around.

Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Washington Nationals

Contract Details: 5 years, 45 million (09-3.325m, 10-6.25m, 11-8.925m, 12-12m, 13-14m)

Notes: Another deal which bought out part of Zimmerman's arbitration years. This also goes for Troy Tulowitski and Ryan Braun's new deals. Zimmerman got a nice bump and quite the salary security for the next five years.

The Breaking News

Jack Wilson, SS, Seattle Mariners

Contract Details: 2 years 10 million (10-5 million, 11-5 million)

Notes: Wilson avoided free agency by agreeing to a deal with the Mariners last Friday. Wilson is nowhere near the hitter Tejada is, posting a wOBA of .286, but is much better with the glove. The Mariners acquired Wilson midway through last season to replace the departed Yuniesky Betancourt. Wilson had an 8.4 million dollar option, which the Mariners didn't have to exercise by coming to terms with him on this deal. If a more one-dimensional player like Wilson can get an average of 5 million per year, it doesn't bode well for Tejada, who may be moved to a less premium defensive position.

Forecast for Tejada

Taking into account Buster Olney's latest comments from above and the market from last season, it's safe to assume Tejada will sign for somewhere around 7 million per year for two years. Some team may be willing to up that number to around 9 or 10 million, but only over one season. I could see the White Sox possibly making a move here, but I don't see Tejada getting more than a two year deal from anyone. Not at his age nor when he'd have to most likely move positions. It's also highly unlikely any team would commit serious money to him as a shortstop, but don't rule out the Royals.

Weekend Mug 11/15

Fatter than Joey — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 06:50:01 -0000

by Pat Sullivan - AP

This dude hates Spaghettio's, and hates that you love them.

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Hello Kids!

I see your Regular Dad has dropped you off at your Weekend Dad's doorstep. Apparently Mr. Fancypants has better things to do, than keeping you kids up to date about the Milwaukee Brewers this weekend. I have no idea what happened to your Regular Dad, one can only guess... in any case, let me turn off the Carmen Electra workout tape, put on some fresh sweatpants, open up a can of Spaghettio's and tell you all about the Brewers.

One thing my therapist encourages me to do every morning, is to google Ned Yost, and then reassure myself that Ned Yost, or his evil offspring, Ned Yost IV, can no longer hurt me. I thought it was interesting that this quote from Ned Yost, was produced by the google engine.

The Atlanta Braves were in last place for years and years before I got there.

The fact that Yost didn't make the finalist stage, and that the Astros eventually hired Brad Mills, is probably evidence that someone in Houston can muster up enough brain activity to fog a mirror, contrary to previous reports of a flatlining front office.

Doug Melvin showed his own mirror fogging prowess by declining the option on Brewer souvenir generator Braden Looper. The Brewers will have to pay Looper $1M for the opportunity to decline his option, however they will save $5.5M in salary for 2010, and probably another $400K in lost baseballs. Looper is a type B free agent now, and while the Brewers could offer Looper arbitration, it is unlikely, since Looper stands to make as much money in the arbitration process as his declined option would have provided.

Bleacher Report thinks Melvin did the right thing in declining Looper's option, however argues that unless the Brewers dump Jeff Suppan, the Brewers will still suck at pitching.
Along the same lines, Rob Neyer snips TH, and rips Looper, and wonders why Melvin just can't DFA Bush, Parra and Suppan. (TH story)
FireDougMelvin.com reminds us, that while we put new Hefty bags on the windows on our double-wide by releasing Looper, we are still living in the trailer park.
Quick! Name the only 4 pitchers in the history of MLB that were able to give up 39 or more homeruns in under 200 IP. (Answer: Jose Lima 48/196.1; Eric Milton 40/186.1; Shawn Boskie 40/189.1; Braden Looper 39/194.2)
Quote from Braden Looper:

"I tried the best I can to get the ball down because that's my whole game"

In other Brewer News:

The Brewers passed on RyDo to get CarGo.
Former Brewer draftpick Andrew Bailey, went from TJ surgery to potential ROY winner
Is Edwin Jackson a good fit? Is he worth a Mat Gamel?
I did not know Ken Macha was 1st cousins with Hal Newhouser, I am guessing through marriage.
Deputy Braun is opening a grill, and scored his 2nd Silver Slugger award
Ben Sheets is awaiting offers from all 30 MLB teams.
Mark Mulder and Doug Melvin are talking
Seth McClung was interviewed about Twittering, and is generous with his High School.
Eric Gagne wants to pitch in MLB again... as a starter... he developed a cutter, which apparently is helping his batted balls adhere to the laws of physics.
What's dumber than signing Doug Davis? Answer: Getting into a bidding war for Doug Davis

In other MLB news:

Jack Wilson signed a 2 year deal with the Mariners. The Fielding Bible says Wilson is the best fielding SS in MLB. The Home & Garden Bible says Wilson is an above replacement yard gnome.
RJ Swindle signed a minor league deal with the Rays.
Justin Huber has a weekend dad in Japan
Carl Crawford is pissed beyond belief
Rafael Betancourt needs a new Regular Dad

Your Regular Dad is always making you take quizzes, where you have to do math, and are required to spell names correctly. What is wrong with him? -- Weekend Daddy just wants you to match up these Weekend Grannies with the crimes they committed, isn't that more fun?

This is generally the place in the Mug where Regular Dad generally wishes some (but usually not all) former Brewers a Happy Birthday. Instead of doing that, why don't we join the greatest Brewer of all-time, Sixto Lezcano, in wishing young Jimmy Salladay a happy birthday.

A gathering of Angels appeared above my head
They sang to me this song of hope and this is what they said:
Weekend Dad is greater than Regular Dad

We Have Come A Long Way

Jeff — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 09:06:11 -0000

Pretty much everybody that gives a crap about baseball understands by now that the Mariners are way different from how they used to be, but people's minds have been changed by different events. Some people were convinced by the hiring of Jack Zduriencik. They knew about him in Milwaukee, they were familiar with his philosophies, and they saw what he meant and what he'd be capable of.

Some people were convinced by the Branyan signing. A guy many have wanted to see in Seattle for years, bringing Branyan into the fold showed that the front office was willing to take a risk in the name of getting good production for cheap.

Some people were convinced by the JJ/Gutierrez trade. The structure of the deal and the public justification for making it demonstrated that this organization knew which characteristics were important, which weren't, and how it wanted to go about building a contender.

Some people were convinced by the left field situation. Not only did the front office know how to value defense; it refused to deviate from its plan of having a strong defensive outfield, even when its original starter got hurt.

Some people were convinced by the team's 2009 record. Any team that gets that much better in that little time has to have done something right.

And so on. Ever since Jack Zduriencik and the rest of his new front office were brought in and put in power, there has been a series of revealing events, each persuading more and more people that, after years of prodigal lunacy, the Mariners organization finally had it figured out. And this afternoon we were able to add the latest landmark moment to the list when the following was written in the same place where just a couple years ago authors lamented the lacking of playing time for one Willie Bloomquist:

Wilson earned the Fielding Bible Award as the best fielding shortstop in the Majors in 2009, leading all Major League shortstops with 27 runs saved. In 1,143 starts at shortstop, he has recorded a .977 fielding percentage. He's a career .268 hitter.

The Fielding Bible Awards and defensive runs saved, on Pravda, used as evidence. I don't know if this was the author's idea or a suggestion from someone a little higher, but what difference does it make? Remember when the broadcast would talk about RZR and UZR? Forget whose decision it was. What matters is that not only does this front office intend to use its superior valuation skills to make this team good again - they're going to make damn sure as many fans as possible know how they're doing it.

A significant group of people were skeptical of the Zduriencik Mariners back when the hiring was made public.

Something tells me the remaining members of that group are getting sick of goodbyes.

Reader Poll

Jeff — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 00:39:48 -0000

Given the following information:

-----

32 year old injury-prone shortstop

UZR

+14 runs in 105 games in 2009, +23.6 in 316 games since 2007

Plus/Minus

+27 runs in 2009, around +48 since 2007

Revised Zone Rating

+15 runs in 2009, around +50 since 2007

Fan Scouting Report

#7 SS in 2009, average 7th or 8th since 2007

-----

How would you project his defense in 2010?

Poll

Project Jack Wilson's 2010 defense based on that information.

20 < x < 25 runs per 150 games

75 votes

15 < x < 20 runs per 150 games

311 votes

10 < x < 15 runs per 150 games

348 votes

5 < x < 10 runs per 150 games

104 votes

0 < x < 5 runs per 150 games

12 votes

-5 < x < 0 runs per 150 games

8 votes

858 votes | Poll has closed

Daily Roundup

Eli Greenspan — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 23:57:32 -0000

More photos » by Lenny Ignelzi - AP

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Several decisions on club options were made today, let's get right to it:

The Brewers declined Braden Looper's 5.5 million dollar club option, buying him out for one million dollars instead. The Brewers are unlikely to bring him back, focusing that money instead on one of the premier pitchers available. I expect to see the Brewers make a play for John Lackey.
After failing to work out a multi year deal, the Rockies declined Rafael Betancourt's 5 million dollar club option. The Rockies still plan to negotiate with the reliever, who posted a 2.73 ERA this past season.
The Mariners and shortstop Jack Wilson agreed to a two-year deal through 2011. Wilson was acquired from Pittsburgh on July 29th with Ian Snell, only to hit .224 with a home run. The Mariners hope he can return to his .268 career line.
The Red Sox met with the agent of pitcher John Lackey, the Boston Herald is reporting. The Red Sox are smart to gauge his value, but I don't see them spending big on pitching in a year where the priority is landing a corner outfielder.
The Minneapolis Star-Tribune is reporting that the Twins have some interest in bringing back third baseman Joe Crede. Crede appeared in only 90 games this season to hit a disappointing .215. The Twins could probably get him on an incentive-laden deal.

Jack Wilson Inked

Matthew — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 21:38:33 -0000

Two-year deal. Details forthcoming.

Jeff's update: $10m, 2 years. I think I said everything I have to say about Wilson the other day, so the bottom line is that this is a great deal in a vacuum and still a pretty good deal for a team in our situation. The shortstop hole has been plugged without our having to make any sort of potentially debilitating commitment. Onward to solving the team's other problems. Call Felix!

Points Of Contention: Jack Wilson's Offense

Jeff — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 03:53:06 -0000

When the Mariners traded for Jack Wilson, we knew it a move fueled by defense. The front office and coaching staff made no secret of that. Wilson brought a glove, an excellent glove capable of making up for a lackluster bat, and this was okay, because we knew that he'd be able to field while remaining something above a black hole at the plate.

However, over the span of the next six weeks, Wilson would collect 116 plate appearances as a Mariner, and over those 116 plate appearances, he would hit just .224 with a .562 OPS. While no one expected Wilson to light it up, this was beyond terrible. This was a Ronny Cedeno level of bad, and in part because the whole Cedeno experience was still fresh in our minds, there developed this sentiment that Wilson's an "NL hitter," that he's a guy who can sort of hold his own on the other side but who becomes completely overmatched against the superior AL competition. Cedeno was awful here and successful with Pittsburgh. Wilson, some people have claimed, is a player in the same kind of mold.

I find this claim to be dubious for three reasons:

(1) There's no such thing as an "AL hitter" or an "NL hitter." While the AL is the better league and has the better pitchers overall, it's not so lopsided that NL hitters come over and lose tons of points off their production. I identified 42 hitters who switched leagues either last offseason or during the year and who accumulated at least 100 PAs on both sides. Those 42 players averaged a .315 wOBA in the AL (not park-adjusted) and a .323 wOBA in the NL. Over a full season, that's a difference of about four runs. It seems significant, but it's not colossal. Jack Wilson may have struggled over here, but what about, I dunno, Jeremy Reed? What about Endy Chavez or Alex Cora? It's not an idea that makes a lot of sense when you think about it, and it's not an idea that holds up to much scrutiny.

(2) Jack Wilson has collected 470 PAs during interleague play over his career. In those 470 PAs, he's hit .301/.334/.420, and he's been good in each of the last three seasons.

(3) 116 plate appearances. That's all we saw from Wilson in the AL, and for many of them he was playing hurt. 116 plate appearances barely tell you anything. If Wilson had come over and sucked that bad for a whole year, that would be one thing. But he sucked for a handful of weeks. A 3/4/5 weighting of his most recent seasons yields an un-adjusted wOBA of .301, which isn't that bad for a defense-first shortstop.

Jack Wilson may be a baseball player in the National League style, but there's no good reason to believe that his bat will continue to be this bad as long as he plays for an AL team. There is an AL adjustment that docks him a few points, but what we saw from him was extreme, a performance towards the lower bound of his probability distribution. It isn't realistic to expect him to keep that up. He's proven over the years that, while he's not a great hitter, or a good one, or an average one, he's a below-average one, and not a disaster. That's the player we traded for, and that's the player we almost certainly still have.

How Seattle will affect Wilson's offense is, of course, a legitimate question. Not only did he switch leagues, but he also moved to a park that doesn't treat righties very kindly. That's going to be an adjustment. However, for one thing, Wilson's power, like Jose Lopez's, is down the line to left, so he won't get killed by that power alley, and for another, the bulk of Wilson's production comes from line drives instead of fly balls anyway, so Safeco shouldn't hurt him as bad as it has guys like Mike Cameron. Wilson sprays singles. A single is a single in any ballpark.

Jack Wilson isn't a sexy, impact type of player, and at 32 this December, he's not on the way up. However, as a regular shortstop who can turn a lot of balls into outs and make a lot of low-to-the-ground contact, we could do a lot worse. Assuming his offense hasn't completely collapsed and that he's something like a +10 defender, we should see him end up in the neighborhood of a 1.5 - 2.0 WAR, and that's going to help. That's going to help quite a bit.

Tuesday Night Odds & Ends

Jeff — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 09:02:34 -0000

A few things I missed over the afternoon...

Russell Branyan has rejected a one-year offer from the Mariners, a one-year offer that, via Larry Stone, included a 2011 option. Branyan says that, while he'd love to stay in Seattle, he's holding out for a multiyear deal that gives him some semblance of stability, a goal that makes a lot of sense when you consider that he and his wife just had another kid. He's tired of moving around.

I feel for him. Branyan's never deserved to be the nomad sort, and after a career year, this is as good a time as any for him to sell himself as more than a one-year solution. Unfortunately, though, Branyan's a guy who's never drawn a big offer, settling with the Mariners last winter for $1.4m/1yr, and while you'd think the 31 homers would bump up his value, those were largely offset by his back trouble, which threatens to linger for the rest of his days. If Branyan had stayed healthy all season, he'd probably be looking at at least, I dunno, $12m/2yr. But he missed a quarter of the team's games with his injury and at 34, with that back, 2+ years just isn't very likely.

I'd expect Branyan to re-sign with the Mariners. I wouldn't, however, expect him to return on a guaranteed multiyear deal. 2010 with a 2011 option that vests with a certain number of plate appearances is probably the best he'll be able to do.

From the same Pravda article, Jack Wilson has rejected the Mariners' initial multiyear offer. Anybody that listened to Jack and Tony talk after the Wilson acquisition knows that the organization absolutely loves him and would be delighted to have him stick around for another few years, but apparently it's going to take a little more than was offered. Which, hey, this is how negotiations work. The guy who goes in and proposes what he considers the most fair deal first is the guy who never gets a fair deal. I'd expect this one to end up somewhere around where Branyan would've wound up were it not for the bad back.

Shannon Drayer has a post up detailing a conversation she had with Alan Nero, Felix's agent. We've all been freaking out about the lack of communication between parties, but reading Nero's quotes is reassuring - he continues to emphasize that there's no hurry, and that there isn't any writing on the wall for the rest of us to interpret. The organization has assured Nero that it will put something together, and though Felix may prefer a little more of a hands-on approach, Felix has put his trust in his agent and has admitted as much, meaning the lack of dialogue so far may not actually hurt us at all.

These quotes from Nero and Zduriencik over the past few days have breathed new life into my optimism that something's going to get done. There's obviously a little more urgency here than Nero is going to let on, but with Felix's side being willing and Z sounding determined, this should be doable. Six years, and figure out the money. It really is as simple as that.

Free Agent Options: Shortstops

Slyde — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 12:30:41 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

Marco Scutaro and Orlando Cabrera are two shortstop possibilities for the Reds on the free agent market this off-season.

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As Walt Jocketty spends his time in Chicago, cozying up to the other GMs for a long Winter's ~~nap~~ season of dealing, he appears to have two priorities on his mind: shortstop and catcher. The Reds had reportedly been trying to deal with the Brewers for J.J. Hardy, but those talks didn't get anywhere and now Hardy is in Minnesota, likely to be the starting shortstop for the opening of the new Target Field.

The Reds could stick with Paul Janish and hope for the best, but his combined batting line of .231/.317/.332 over the last 3 years in the Majors and Minors doesn't exactly instill a bunch of confidence in his ability to be the everyday shortstop for a contending team. Not that he is without his positives. He could potentially be on one of the top 5 defensive shortstops in the league. Based upon his very small sample in the big leagues, he's been doing quite well. He's posted a UZR of 9.9 in 118 big league games at shortstop - hardly enough of a sample to know what his true talent level is, but if it is anywhere around 10, he's one of the best. On a team that could be struggling to generate offense though, his defense may not be enough to make up for that putrid offense.

So, what are some of the options out there for the Reds to fill the need at shortstop? While they could still make a trade, it's hard to know at this point who (Hanley Ramirez) might be available. We do know who should be free agents though, so let's look at them.

According to Cots, there are 12 possible free agent shortstops available this off-season. I doubt that anybody seriously considers Juan Castro, Alex Cora, Bobby Crosby, Ramon Martinez, or John McDonald as much of an option as an everyday starter at shortstop. I don't really feel like discussing Alex Gonzalez for fear that the Reds might read this and misconstrue it as a desire to have him back on the team. Adam Everett can still do a pretty good job of picking it in the field, but honestly, he's just an older, more injury-prone version of Janish. And Kahlil Greene is a decent bet to hit better than Janish, but his 3 year average for UZR puts him at about 8 runs below the average shortstop defensively. Given that even at his best, he's basically a league average hitter, I wouldn't say he's worth it.

That leaves us with four possibilities on the free agent market: Orlando Cabrera, Marco Scutaro, Miguel Tejada, and Jack Wilson. We'll take a look at each after the jump.

Orland Cabrera

I would have loved for the Reds to sign Cabrera a couple of years ago, but I'm a little leery of signing a 35-year old shortstop coming off of a bad season. Cabrera was only slightly above replacement-level last year (0.6 WAR) and that's mainly because he played a difficult position. His 3-year average UZR puts him at about 2.5 runs above average, which isn't bad for a shortstop, but his age leaves me concerned that his defensive skills may have deteriorated more than a 3-year average might indicate (his UZR in 2009 was -15.3). Offensively, he's much better than Janish, even in a bad season, but his wOBA has dropped each of the last 3 seasons from a career high of .331 (about league average) in 2007 to .316 in 2008 to .310 in 2009. He's definitely not trending the right way.

When I would take him: I haven't been too positive on Cabrera, but I would take him on a one-year deal for at most $3 million (he made $4 million on a one-year deal last year). The biggest problem that I see with him as an option is that if his defense has gone, his reputation as a great defender will precede him, which means that he'll never be taken out for a defensive replacement. He's not good enough on offense or defense to justify that.

Marco Scutaro

The first thing that jumps out at me for Scutaro is the red flag of an outlier year. Actually it would be an outlier 2 years. As a 33-year old, Scutaro put up his best season in 2009 (4.5 WAR), topping his previous best season of 2008 (2.7 WAR), which topped his previous best season of, well, he was never really that good before then. He is exactly the type of player the Reds should shy away from, if you ask me. It's not normal for players to suddenly get better and turn in All Star performances in their early or mid-30s. He is a high risk for a fall-off from his 2009 season, but baseball doesn't tend to pay players that way. I'm guessing that Scutaro will get paid as if he has found a new level, and I'm also guessing that won't turn out to be a good contract.

When I would take him: That's not to say that I wouldn't consider signing him. I wouldn't give him anymore than 2 guaranteed years though, and I wouldn't want any of his years to be worth more than $6 million. On the positive side, Scutaro increased his plate discipline dramatically last year, and that seems to have had a great affect on his output. His BABIP actually appears to be in line with expectation, so I wouldn't say his season was obviously fluky at the plate. However, the Reds don't exactly have a reputation for fostering patience at the plate. Defensively, he appears to be good enough that if he can stay around league average offensively, he could be worth 2-2.5 wins. I'm just not convinced that his offense is real yet.

Miguel Tejada

The real issue with Tejada is salary expectations. He has averaged $12 million a year over the last 4 years, and I would imagine that he's not going to be willing to take an overly dramatic paycut next year unless the market forces it on him. He is likely the best offensive option for shortstop available this off-season. He definitely doesn't have the output of his, ahem, prime years, but he's been slightly better than average over 2 of the last 3 years, and I think he's a safe bet to be somewhere close to average in 2010. The big concern offensively is that he only walked 19 times in over 635 plate appearances last year. Dusty Baker may like that, but it scares the bejeezus out of me. He did balance that with just 48 strikeouts, so at least he's putting the ball in play. And he's probably still good for 30+ doubles and 15 HR, which could give the offense a little bit of a boost. Defensively, he's below average (probably around 4 runs below average), but I think it's well enough known that he's not a defensive master that Baker would likely use Janish as a defensive replacement for him.

When I would take him: With Tejada, the Reds best hope is that he has too high of expectations for what kind of money he can get and he is forced to take a one-year "prove yourself" deal. If I'm Jocketty, I'm lurking around Tejada, ready to swoop in and make a deal at the first sign of this possibility. I'm not too worried about the money on a one-year deal because I think Tejada would make Gomes somewhat expendable, though it'd definitely be nice to have both. I'm not sure I would do multi-years for Tejada, mainly because I expect he'll be changing positions in the next year or two.

Jack Wilson

Wilson actually has an option that still needs to be declined, but I have a hard time believing that the Mariners want to pay him $8.4 million in 2010. Wilson might be an odd choice for the Reds to consider because he's basically a slightly better version of Janish, but he'll likely cost a few million more. However, Wilson is a somewhat better hitter than Janish, and has been much better at times. That potential could make him attractive as a free agent, especially since his worst season after his rookie year is still considerably better than what Janish has done as a big leaguer. Defensively, Wilson is close to as good as his reputation, and that's the most you can ask for a player that makes announcers go ga ga over his defense. The downside of Wilson is that there is no way you'll get Baker to move him out of the 2-spot in the lineup.

When I would take him: Something that I haven't mentioned yet, but is actually very important in these considerations is the type of free agent each of these guys are. Cabrera, Scutaro,and Tejada are all Type-A free agents, which means that if their respective teams offer them arbitration and they decline and sign with a new team, the new team will have to give up their first round pick. The caveat to this is if that pick is in the first 15, then they'd have to give up their 2nd round pick. So, if the Reds, who have the 12th pick in the draft, sign any of the previous players, they'd likely have to give up their 2nd round pick in the 2010 draft. It's not a enormous sacrifice, but still a big consideration. (EDIT: It appears that Cabrera is not a risk to be offered arbitration as his contract states that the Twins cannot offer arbitration to him, so signing him will not mean draft picks. Thanks to Thundering Turtle for the clarification.)

Wilson is not a Type-A free agent. He has however managed to be a league average players (about 2 WAR) over the last 3 seasons. This is because the Elias Rankings that determine the type of free agency don't take defensive value into account. Wilson is a very good defender with at least some possibility to be a decent, though not great hitter. Since the Reds wouldn't have to give up any draft picks, that should make him even more attractive. I'd consider him over Janish mainly because I think Wilson has a better chance to be average at his position. I suspect though that he'll be looking for a multi-year deal. Even if the deal is a cheap one, I really wouldn't want someone like him blocking Zack Cozart, who frankly looks like a much younger, cheaper version of Wilson.

What do you think? Do any of these guys do it for you at shortstop?