SB Nation - Chris Duffy

Pirates Can't Learn Much From Phillies

Charlie — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 22:05:52 -0000

More photos » by Ross D. Franklin - AP

Philadelphia Phillies' Cole Hamels throws against the Arizona Diamondbacks, Tuesday, July 28, 2009, in Phoenix. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)

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John Mehno has the right idea in this Beaver County Times column about the differences between the Pirates and Phillies--it's not primarily about spending, it's about building by acquiring amateur talent. But while the technique of comparing some great Phillies draft picks (Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and so on) to picks the Pirates botched at similar points in their drafts is effective for an article written with a word count for a general audience, it doesn't quite tell the whole story.

The Phillies' case is really weird. If you look at their drafts under previous GM Ed Wade (that's basically the time frame described in the Beaver County article), it's very surprising they've been so successful. Working backwards, the best player they got in 2005 was current Athletics reliever Josh Outman; they also got current Reds reliever Matt Maloney. That was it. In 2004 they got J.A. Happ in the third round, Jason Jaramillo in the second, and Lou Marson in the fourth, but they also took Greg Golson as a dubious tools pick in the first round and got nothing in the later rounds. In 2003 they had no first- or second-round pick; they got Michael Bourn and Kyle Kendrick, and that was it.

In 2002 the Phils took Cole Hamels in the first round, which was obviously a great pick, but they got absolutely nothing else. In 2001, it was Gavin Floyd in the first round and Howard in the fifth, and absolutely nothing else. In 2000, they got Utley, Taylor Buchholz and nothing else. In 1999, it was Brett Myers, Marlon Byrd and nothing else. (They also drafted Joe Saunders, but didn't sign him.)

Now, maybe this doesn't sound too noteworthy to some of you. Maybe you think that if you get one good player out of a draft, that's great, and to a certain extent that's true. In this case, the results speak for themselves. But what's odd to me about the Phillies' drafts under Wade is how incredibly thin they were. Wade seemed to get a star player and almost nothing else every year for several seasons in a row. That's strange.

To see what I mean, let's take a look at Wade's first draft for the Phillies in 1998. He took Pat Burrell with the first overall pick (a bit of a no-brainer), but he also got several moderately useful players later on, such as Jason Michaels, Geoff Geary and Nick Punto.

In the grand scheme of things, it doesn't really matter that much if you fail to identify the next Nick Punto in your draft, but it does raise the question of why, if the Phillies are supposed to be a good example of intelligent drafting, they were able to identify so many star players but so few other future productive major leaguers.

Here's an example. In 2000 the Phillies got Utley, who single-handedly made the draft a very successful one for Philadelphia. The same year, the Pirates got Chris Young, Nate McLouth, Ian Snell, Jose Bautista and Sean Burnett. I'd say the Pirates actually did a much better job in that draft, even though it turned out worse--Dave Littlefield stupidly traded away Young a couple years later, and first-rounder Burnett's career was derailed with a ton of injuries. Drafting players who will stay healthy and helping them stay healthy involve skills, of course, and it certainly helps to not take a pitcher in the first round every year like the Pirates did. But there's luck involved too. For example, the Phillies were notably lucky that, for example, high school draftee Hamels basically made it to the majors with his elbow and shoulder intact, particularly after he missed huge chunks of his minor league career with injuries.

In 2001 the Phillies got Floyd, later sent to the White Sox in the Jim Thome trade, and Howard. That was all. Again, the Pirates had a much more robust draft, grabbing a number of moderately useful players in Zach Duke, Chris Shelton, Jeff Keppinger, Chris Duffy, Jonathan Albaladejo and Rajai Davis. (They also might have had some shot of signing 11th-rounder Stephen Drew if Littlefield, who was hired shortly after the draft, hadn't dropped the ball.) The Pirates royally messed up their first-round pick, John Van Benschoten, and that was their fault, but again, I'm not really convinced that Wade and the Phillies had a better idea of what they were doing.

Of course, Littlefield and his team started drafting in 2002, and after that all bets are off. There's no defending much of anything Littlefield did. My point, though, is that I'm not sure the Wade-era Phillies are a particularly good model here. In fact, it looks to me that they repeatedly got very lucky with about one pick each year and totally bombed the rest of their drafts under Wade, with the exceptions of 1998 and 2004. I don't mean to take anything away from the Phillies, who have generally been pretty well run since Wade left. But If there are things the Pirates can learn from this, they are the very basic points that, first, it's generally very important not to screw up first-round picks, and second, that it's important to build a core of homegrown stars. Beyond that, the Phillies' example doesn't tell us a whole lot.

Tuesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 13:12:28 -0000

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Prince Fielder, seen here checking under his jersey for another jersey, will likely be offered a long term contract by the Brewers this offseason, according to Jon Heyman.

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Some things to read while learning your costume's limitations.

Two more names have surfaced in the search for a new pitching coach: Former Arizona pitching coach Bryan Price and former Rays pitching coach Chuck Hernandez have both reportedly interviewed for the position this week (FanShot). Rick Peterson still appears to be the favorite, but Hernandez has worked with Macha before, and that fact seems to carry some weight for some reason.

It's widely accepted that Albert Pujols will win the NL MVP, but where will Prince Fielder finish? David Gassko of The Hardball Times has developed a system to predict the BBWAA's voting, and it predicts a third place finish for Fielder, behind Pujols and Ryan Howard. Meanwhile, Jon Heyman thinks the Brewers will attempt to sign Fielder to a long term deal this offseason.

USA Today has ranked the "shock wave" celebration following Fielder's walk-off home run on September 6 as one of their top ten highlights of the 2009 season. Certainly, it's a moment we'll remember for quite some time.

This is earlier than I normally do birthdays, but happy birthday to Trevor Hoffman, who turns 42 today. As Adam McCalvy notes, Hoffman will become the second oldest player in franchise history with his first appearance in 2010, and could pass Hank Aaron for first place by appearing in a game anytime after June.

Speaking of pitchers who should return next season, there's a new reason to join the Bring Back Seth McClung Facebook group. McClung has agreed to give an autographed ball to one randomly selected member of the group, to be chosen on Monday. Membership of the group more than doubled yesterday, but clearly we can do better. If you haven't joined yet, now is the time.

R.J. Anderson of FanGraphs has a look at Felipe Lopez, who is riding a career year into free agency for the second time. Anderson notes the differences between Lopez's 2005 and 2009 seasons.

We're just a few hours away from the start of the Arizona Fall League, as the Peoria Javelinas take on Ian Kennedy and the Surprise Rafters at 1:35 Central time today. Adam McCalvy has a preview of the AFL, complete with a link to this PDF of everything you ever wanted to know about the league, and this definition of a Javelina:

Here's something you won't find in that PDF: A javelina, according to the Arizona Game and Fish Department, is also known as a peccary, a medium-sized mammal that looks a bit like a pig. A terrifying, crazed pig.

Here are some other notes on the AFL:

As far as I know, none of the Brewer beat reporters will be in Arizona covering the AFL, but the Javelinas also feature prospects from the Seattle Mariners, and Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times will be in Arizona following them.
If Baker's coverage and ours aren't enough for you, you can also follow the AFL on Twitter.

Of course, the AFL isn't the only place where baseball is being played right now. The Nashville Sounds' website has a note on the 2009 Sounds playing winter ball in Venezuela. Hernan Iribarren's Cardenales de Lara defeated Adam Heether's Leones del Caracas last night, 7-1. Iribarren went 1-for-4 with a double and scored a run, while Heether went 0-for-3 with a walk.

Need a mental tune-up this morning? NoahJ wants to know how fast you can name the 39 players who appeared in a game for the Brewers this season. I did it with about four and a half minutes to spare, if you need a record to shoot for.

Oh, and if you haven't yet, you're running out of time to cast your ballot in Tangotiger's Fan Scouting Report. Even if you've already cast a ballot, you can stop by to rate some of the players that have recently been added, including Alcides Escobar.

If you've done both of those things and you're still looking for something to do, perhaps you should find a job? The Brewers are hiring an HR Coordinator.

Baseball America's Minor League Transactions include the first wave of players to become minor league free agents this offseason, and there's a bunch of former Brewers among them: Greg Aquino, R.J. Swindle, Glendon Rusch, R.A. Dickey and Joe Dillon. Also noted: The Brewers re-signed minor league free agents Jim Henderson (RP) and Patrick Arlis (C), but allowed Chris Duffy to become a free agent.

Elsewhere in the marketplace:

Intro to Sabermetrics 101 has a look at Carl Pavano, and why advanced metrics would imply he was better than his conventional numbers showed in 2009.
Jorge Says No! wonders if Jason Marquis' offseason asking price will go down now that he struggled down the stretch and had his start skipped in the NLDS last night.

Continuing their open search process, the Astros have released the names of the ten candidates for their vacant managerial position, and the list includes two former Brewer managers: Ned Yost, as expected, and Phil Garner, who would be entering his second tour of duty managing the team. Garner reportedly called to advocate for Bob Melvin, who coached under him in Milwaukee, but ended up as a candidate himself. The Astros, by the way, are not considering Willie Randolph.

It was a bittersweet moment at TBS headquarters last night, as the end of the final NLDS series meant they'll only get 13 of a possible 20 Division Series broadcasts, but that didn't keep them from celebrating the elimination of the last small market team. Of course, Hass Avocado is the true winner.

I wasn't exactly cheering on the Dodgers over the weekend, but when they won I was happy to see Mark Loretta playing a part in it. Loretta languished for years on some pretty terrible Brewer teams, so it's nice to see karma catching up with him.

I mentioned Trevor Hoffman's birthday above, but today birthday wishes also go out to Damian Miller, who turns 40.

Drink up.

Jeff Salazar, Bryan Bullington Become Free Agents

Charlie — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 02:16:22 -0000

More photos » by Keith Srakocic - AP

8 months ago: Pittsburgh Pirates' Jeff Salazar, right, steals second before the tag of Cincinnati Reds' shortstop Adam Rosales in the bottom of the ninth inning of the spring training baseball game in Bradenton, Fla., Monday, March 30, 2009. Salazar went on to score the game winning run on a hit bit Jason Jaramillo in the Pirates 3-2 win. (AP Photo/Keith Srakocic)

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Since we're at the point in the year where there's nothing to care about except little things, here's some news: a bunch of guys just became minor league free agents. The only Pirate on the list is Jeff Salazar, who went 1-for-23 for the Bucs this year. Salazar probably needed to hit better this season to have much of a shot at a real major-league career, which is too bad; he has an .826 career minor league OPS (albeit in some pretty hospitable hitting environments, like Tucson and Colorado Springs), and it's a shame he never got more of a shot. Most guys who stick as fourth outfielders begin their careers as starters, like Brandon Moss this year; guys like Salazar who have the skillset but are never lucky enough to be confused for starters usually don't make it.

Also on the list of minor league free agents are former Pirate #1-overall picks Kris Benson and Bryan Bullington. Bullington actually pitched very well for the Jays' Class AAA affiliate in Las Vegas, but he didn't make an appearance there after June. The list also includes Chris Duffy, Chris Shelton, and Craig Stansberry.

Other vaguely interesting names on the list: Phil Humber (third overall pick by the Mets in 2004, acquired by Twins in the Johan Santana trade, stalled in the high minors), IF Wilson Betemit (former top Braves prospect, still not that old, bad season in the White Sox organization but versatile and potentially still useful), RP Javier Lopez (again, a terrible season, but he's one year removed from being one of the majors' more effective relievers), RP Greg Aquino (consistently good minor league numbers; certainly a better option than the Denny Bautistas of the world), RP Vinnie Chulk (ditto), RP Jon Switzer (same), RP Joe Nelson (actually a totally decent MLB pitcher for the Rays last year, and a terrific one for the Marlins in 2008), and lefty SP Travis Blackley (former top Mariners prospect finally seems to be pitching with better control in his late 20s and still hasn't been used exclusively as a reliever, where he might find his niche).

Nothing big here, but I'd be mildly psyched to see the Bucs sign Blackley, in particular.

Thanks to WTM.

Thursday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 14:54:59 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

5 months ago: Minnesota Twins' Carlos Gomez can't come up with a double, hit by Milwaukee Brewers' Jason Kendall, as Carlos Villanueva (12) and Mark DiFelice (45) react in the bullpen during the eighth inning of a baseball game Wednesday, June 24, 2009, in Milwaukee. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)

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Some things to read while making my breakfast.

In possibly the best news of the day, Braden Looper does not expect to miss a start after taking a line drive off his pitching arm in last night's game. Tom H. isn't as optimistic. I'm assuming we'll get another update in a day or two.

The Brewers could hardly afford another injury to a starter, as Mike Burns is already being pressed into service today and Seth McClung will start Saturday. If Looper can't make his start, the Brewers will likely have no choice but to recall Manny Parra from AAA. CZWief is starting to compare this year's rotation to the disaster that was 2002.

Speaking of today's game, the Brewers will likely face Denard Span, who the Twins are expected to activate, but will not face Nick Punto, who has been sent home to have his ribs examined.

Beyond the Box Score has Pitch F/x leaderboards. Several Brewers make appearances, but the most interesting stat belongs to Yovani Gallardo. Opposing hitters are swinging at just 40% of his pitches, the second lowest percentage in all of baseball.

Wow, are we ever awash in minor league notes today:

2009 first round pick Eric Arnett had quite the day yesterday. First, he ate at Pizza Hut, then he allowed a run on a hit, two walks and an HBP in one inning of work in his pro debut for Helena, and was later profiled in the Helena Independent Record. (h/t Brew Crew Online)
Alcides Escobar continues to draw notice in AAA. Jason Grey of ESPN listed Escobar as one of two prospects who may make a position switch to accelerate their rise to the majors. Matt Patterson of the Oklahoman profiled Escobar before a recent game against the RedHawks.
Adam McCalvy has a profile of Zach Braddock, who the Brewers recently promoted to AA. Braddock is working to overcome bipolar disorder.
The 2009 Nashville Sounds are a huge improvement over their 2008 counterpart and their stadium underwent some offseason improvement, but At The Old Ball Game notes that the Sounds are still averaging just 4,067 fans per game, the second lowest total in the Pacific Coast League.
New fan favorite Cameron Garfield continues to draw attention: Jonathan Mayo of MiLB.com says his 5-for-5, 3 RBI debut for Helena was easily the best debut so far.
Brewer 43rd round pick Kyle Dhanani was profiled in his hometown paper. The reporter went the extra mile by calling his mom for the "analysis" quote.
The Brewers also signed an undrafted free agent, pitcher Andrew Dunn of Southern Illinois University.
While those two players begin their professional careers, Chris Duffy might be ending his. He's been placed on the inactive list in Nashville. Apparently he left the team weeks ago for the birth of his child, and never returned.

Looking for another flooding update? Tom H. has you covered with notes on the DOT's reaction and continuing work to determine the cost of the damage.

Beyond the Box Score dropped the Brewers from 16th to 17th in their most recent Power Rankings, but that's still good enough for first place in the Central.

Around the league:

A's: Placed Josh Outman on the DL with an elbow sprain.
Braves: Kenshin Kawakami left last night's start after taking a line drive off his neck, but is not expected to miss a start.
Cubs: Placed Reed Johnson on the DL with back issues.
Indians: Acquired reliever Jose Veras from the Yankees for cash.
Marlins: Placed closer Matt Lindstrom on the DL with an elbow sprain.
Mets: Designated lefty Jon Switzer for assignment.
Nationals: Designated Kip Wells for assignment.
Yankees: Designated Angel Berroa for assignment.

There are also two former Brewer notes to pass along today: Baseball America notes that the Twins released Ben Hendrickson, and Bill Ladson of Nationals.com reports Ronnie Belliard is considering retiring after the season. Belliard has picked up just two at-bats since June 10.

Just when you thought it was safe to go outside, the Oklahoma City RedHawks have activated Orlando Hernandez to throw the banana.

I'm guessing there are probably a few people reading this site who consistently watch Brewer games, right? Any of you watch closely enough to identify which Brewers wear protection on their elbows? If you do, Plunk Everyone could use your help.

The movie is probably dead now so it's all a moot point, but the entire script for the Moneyball movie is available online, if you're interested. Sam Miller of the OC Register says the script "sort of works."

If you currently have a crappy sales job (selling sand in the desert, for example) and you're looking for a slightly easier gig, maybe you should join the Marlins Community Sales Force.

Oh, and today is the second anniversary of Manny Parra's AAA perfect game.

Drink up.

Wednesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Wed, 27 May 2009 15:01:29 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

St. Louis Cardinals' Adam Wainwright (50) is congratulated by teammates after hitting a home run for the fourth consecutive season.

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Some things to read while I finish the last chapter of Help Wanted.

Actually, I probably won't have much time for video games today, as the first pitch for this afternoon's game is already about two hours away. Ryan Braun likely won't be in the starting lineup: X-rays came back negative on Braun's wrist last night (h/t FanShot), but it's still a quick turnaround from a night game to a day game, and resting him today would give him two full days off, with the off day tomorrow. Paul Noonan of Brewed Sports might not have to spend the rest of his life harassing Adam Wainwright after all.

J.J. Hardy, however, is expected to play. Today's game is listed in the top spot in Baseball Musings' Games of the Day.

Adam Wainwright shut the Brewers down last night, and has been lights-out lately. Fungoes credits a change in release point for his sudden dominance. Wainwright's home run last night also gives him one in each of the last four seasons.

Along with the good news, though, the Cardinals got some bad news yesterday: Troy Glaus is being given a 50-50 shot at returning to the lineup in 2009, and Kyle Lohse is expected to be scratched from Friday's start against the Giants.

This week's schedule has been pretty rough for the Brewers, with a road night game on Sunday followed by a day game at home Monday, then a night game last night and another day game today. One would think that would be enough, but Mat Gamel also found time to visit a grade school in Racine before yesterday's game.

Maybe he was campaigning for write-in votes. Ryan Braun and J.J. Hardy are the leading vote-getters at their respective positions in All-Star balloting. In fact, no Brewer position player is lower than second.

Looking back for a moment: The Brewers are 3-1 in 1-0 games this season, but Monday's was the only of the three games to go to extra innings. It was only the seventh 1-0, extra inning victory in franchise history, and just the second since 1989.

For the first time in several days, I don't have a note on Jake Peavy today. I do, however, have Two-Fisted Slopper's argument for Erik Bedard.

I have a handful of draft notes today:

FanGraphs reviews the Brewers' last three drafts and looks ahead to June. They list second base as an organizational need, despite the fact that Cutter Dykstra and Brett Lawrie have both been moved to the position in the last three months. (h/t FanShot)
Andy Seiler has the Brewers selecting Chad Jenkins, a RHP from Kennesaw State, in the first round along with Tommy Joseph, a HS catcher from Arizona, and Brody Colvin, a HS pitcher from Louisiana, in the supplemental round.
Jim Gantner will be the Brewer representative at the draft.

Somewhat related, here are today's minor league notes:

Wily Peralta has been named Midwest League Pitcher of the Week following a week that saw him go two starts without allowing a run with a 17:2 K:BB ratio.
Mike Jones, a former #1 pick who's become a bit of an afterthought, pitched six scoreless innings in his first start in Huntsville and hit 94 on the gun.
Chris Duffy accepted his assignment to Nashville and should join the team today.

Also, Adam McCalvy is looking for mailbag questions, if you have one in mind.

Around the league:

Angels: Placed Scot Shields on the DL with patella tendinitis.
Marlins: Signed Clay Hensley and Gary Glover to minor league deals.
Mets: Placed Jose Reyes (calf tendinitis) and Ryan Church (hamstring) on the DL.
Nationals: Designated Daniel Cabrera for assignment and must add Mike MacDougal to their roster today or lose him to free agency.
Orioles: Placed outfielder Lou Montanez on the DL with torn ligaments in his thumb.
Rays: Jason Bartlett has been placed on the DL with an ankle injury.

Jason Bartlett's DL trip in Tampa opened the door for former Brewer Joe Dillon, who has been called up by the Rays. On top of Dillon (and Gary Glover), here are some other former Brewers in transactions, courtesy of Baseball America:

Former Nashville Sound Abraham Nunez signed with the D-Backs.
The Reds acquired Justin Lehr from the Phillies for future considerations.
The Indians called up Greg Aquino.
The Twins brought Ben Hendrickson off the minor league DL. Hendrickson threw one inning in his 2009 debut, and has now pitched for four teams in the last six seasons in AAA, posting a 3.88 ERA in the process.

Also, Eric Gagne has signed with Quebec in the Can-Am League. Apparently he'll be a starter there, but if he's healthy he probably won't be there long.

Speaking of players who could be available: Ken Rosenthal says the Rockies could be looking to sell, but the Pirates are probably not.

Tomorrow will be a big day in Baltimore, as #1 prospect Matt Wieters is expected to make his major league debut. In a note that's probably not unrelated, the Orioles drew just 10,130 fans to Camden Yards last night, the smallest crowd in that ballpark's history.

The Nationals have the #1 pick in June's draft and have a wide variety of needs, but perhaps they should look for someone who can spell. Roosevelt has two o's and one s.

I'm not sure what's worse, a "Teddy Rossevelt" bobblehead or a Scratch and Sniff Cap.

Oh, and happy birthday to John Jaha, who turns 43 today.

Drink up.

Friday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Fri, 22 May 2009 13:49:18 -0000

More photos » by Bob Levey - AP

Jody Gerut gets congratulations after his teammates learn he's going to be a Brewer.

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Some things to read while making golf more interesting.

The big news of the day today is yesterday's trade sending Tony Gwynn Jr. to San Diego for Jody Gerut. Here's a sampling of response from all over the web:

Doug Melvin said the Brewers were trying to upgrade their left-handed bench options.
Adam McCalvy says Melvin had interest in trading for Gerut for a while, and finally found the opportunity.
The BBTF Transaction Oracle predicts Gerut will hit .278/.335/.472 as a Brewer, which would be pretty good for a fourth outfielder.
Matthew Pouliot of Circling the Bases says Gerut is "a big upgrade in a reserve role for the Brewers," and calls the Brewers a big winner in this trade.
FanGraphs calls the move a salary dump for the Padres. Gerut is still owed about $1.3 million this season.
Meanwhile, Tony Gwynn found out about the trade from his dad, who's pretty excited to have him as a Padre.
Elias says Gwynn will become just the third player ever to play for the same team his father played in over 2000 games for, joining Pete Rose Jr. and Dale Berra. (Thanks to TheJay)
Gwynn made it to San Diego in time to draw a walk in the ninth inning as the Padres scored two in the ninth to beat the Giants last night.
Adam McCalvy has Trevor Hoffman, Mat Gamel and Prince Fielder's reactions to the trade.
At The Old Ball Game has been covering Gwynn in Nashville and called him "the most consistent player on the Sound’s team in 2009."
Brewers Bar compared the trade to Doug Melvin trading candy for water.
MLB Notebook criticized the Brewers for unloading young talent.
Big League Stew says the Padres must have made this move for PR reasons.
Tyler Maas of Bugs and Cranks says Tony Gwynn will get many more opportunities to ruin the Padres' playoff chances.
Quevedo at the Buffet is patting themselves on the back for helping get Gwynn on his way.
Chuckie Hacks says none of us would care if Gwynn's name was Jim Smith.

Gerut is expected to join the Brewers today. While no official announcement has been made, it's expected he'll take the place of Chris Duffy, who will be designated for assignment. He'll join the team along with R.J. Swindle, who was called up yesterday when Hernan Iribarren was sent back down. Having the DH for this weekend's series in Minnesota eliminated some of the need for bench flexibility, but the Twins' lefty-heavy lineup created the need for another situational lefty.

Interleague play will mean an increase in playing time for Mat Gamel, who is expected to DH all three games in Minnesota. Gamel doesn't doesn't seem to know what the team has in store for him once interleague play is over, but is keeping a good attitude about it.

It's possible Gamel will be seeing more time at third base. Bill Hall went 0-for-3 with 2 strikeouts and grounded into a double play against Roy Oswalt last night in what might have been his last chance to prove he can hit right-handed pitching.

There appears to be a good sized community (or at least a loud community) of people in baseball who think Ryan Braun should be hit by pitches, but what about Corey Hart? Plunk Everyone lists Hart among the most likely targets with 0 HBP in 2009.

We have good news on the farm today as Taylor Green, ranked #8 in our Community Prospect Rankings, has finished his rehab assignment in Wisconsin and is headed to Huntsville. Green hit .400/.538/.600 in 20 ABs for the Rattlers.

Speaking of rehab assignments, David Riske is expected to head to Arizona to start his, according to Gord Ash's Twitter. Ash also reports Rickie Weeks is returning to Milwaukee to work with Brewer trainers. (Thanks to Aaron for the heads up.)

The Brewers continue to gain ground in power rankings: Yahoo has them at #6, up from 10 last week.

Around the league:

Astros: Designated infielder Jason Smith for assignment.
Rangers: Placed Vicente Padilla on the DL with a strained deltoid muscle. (h/t Baseball Musings)

The Brewers may not be interested in trading MLB ready pitching for Mark DeRosa, but it appears someone will be: MLB Trade rumors suggests both the Mets and A's as potential fits.

Someone could write a book about Brooks Kieschnick entitled "Anatomy of a Fan Favorite." Brooks sat down for an interview with Brewerfan.net, where topics discussed included his love for Milwaukee and dislike of the Cubs.

On the other end of the spectrum, we have Randall Simon. If you're passing through Fargo today, you might see Simon playing for the Fargo-Moorhead RedHawks, and you might hear him talk about getting blackballed for clubbing a sausage.

Do baseballs really fly out of Minute Maid Park, or can we blame Jeff Suppan? Balking Traditionalism has the answer.

The blackout issue isn't getting resolved after all. A vote on the matter was tabled at the owners' meetings again this week, meaning the issue likely won't be resolved this season.

Oh, and apparently San Diego is the place to go if you want to get devirginized to fresh squeezed tangerine juice.

Drink up.

Friday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Fri, 08 May 2009 13:17:45 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

Milwaukee Brewers third baseman Bill Hall catches a line drive. It has nothing to do with the Mug, but it's a cool picture nonetheless.

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Some things to read while labeling things for your zombie friends.

So, even following last night's loss, PECOTA is projecting the Brewers to win 86.6 games and gives them a roughly 30% chance of making the playoffs. I'll take that at this point.

Micah Owings was pretty good last night as both a pitcher and a hitter. Before the game, Baseball Musings wondered when one makes the decision to move him off the mound full time. Right now, I think I'd keep him on the mound.

Meanwhile, Reds SS Paul Janish probably won't return to the mound anytime soon: Janish was complaining of soreness after throwing 35 pitches Wednesday night, but was forced to play last night anyway after Brandon Phillips was scratched with the flu.

Now that several position players have pitched in a game this season, TheJay has updated Recondite Baseball's list of the last position player to pitch for each team. The Brewers last had one in 2004, when Trent Durrington made a mound appearance.

Chris Duffy might have gotten a bruise or two in the late innings of Wednesday night's game, but he doesn't care. The Official Site talked with Duffy about his highlight reel catch and prioritizing defense.

Speaking of outfielders who can play some defense, Mike Cameron checked in at #28 on Circling the Bases' list of potential 2010 free agents.

Around the league:

Cardinals: Placed Rick Ankiel on the DL.
Dodgers: Manny Ramirez has been suspended for 50 games for a violation of the league's drug policy.
Indians: Released reliever Juan Salas and designated Vinnie Chulk for assignment.
Marlins: Are expected to place Anibal Sanchez on the DL today with shoulder discomfort.
Mets: Angel Pagan, who was in Florida for a rehab assignment, was arrested yesterday for driving with a suspended license and several unpaid fines for traffic violations.
Nationals: Designated reliever Mike Hinckley for assignment.
Orioles: Utilityman Ryan Freel was scratched from a rehab appearance yesterday, and could be activated or designated for assignment today.

Odds are you've heard about Manny Ramirez's suspension. I probably skipped over 50 or more posts and columns about it this morning, and I'm not about to write another one. There is one thing I'd like to mention, though: Now that I know that a player like Ramirez can get caught and baseball won't sweep it under the rug, I have significantly more faith in the current testing program.

Also, a note on Angel Pagan: I know pursuing warrants for minor violations isn't a top priority for law enforcement, but how did it take years to arrest Pagan for outstanding warrants dating back to 2005? Anyone who took five minutes to look at his team's schedule could tell you where he'll be every day.

I picked Cecil Cooper, so I would have lost my money: D-Backs manager Bob Melvin was the first manager fired in 2009 yesterday, and he took hitting coach Rich Schu and pitching coach Bryan Price with him. Babes Love Baseball thought Ken Macha would be the first manager canned. If Macha is canned now, the Brewers could hire Melvin to form a Doug Melvin-Bob Melvin braintrust that would confuse columnists and talk radio callers across the land.

The news might not be good for former Brewer farmhand and current Orioles reliever Dennis Sarfate, currently on the DL with a circulatory problem. Sarfate is expected in for more tests today, but it's possible the issue is career-threatening.

Meanwhile, Brian Shouse, who seems to show up in conversations about obscure stats and rules all the time, picked up his first Rays win last night despite not entering the game until after the Rays had the lead.

Oh, and Brett Lawrie's sister can knock you out.

Drink up.

Brewers 7, Pirates 4

battlekow — Tue, 05 May 2009 01:59:35 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

Rickie Weeks rounds third as he is congratulated by coach Brad Fischer after hitting a ninth-inning thee-run home run off Pittsburgh Pirates closer Matt Capps. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

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MVP: Ryan Braun (+.316)
LVP: Mark DiFelice (-.222)

Win Expectancy Graph
SB Nation Coverage

Despite getting the win, Mark DiFelice was the Brewers' Least Valuable Player, which should tell you something about how the Brewers scavenged this win in Pittsburgh.

This game had it all - Bill Hall starting in left and subsequently leaving with a hamstring cramp in the second inning, Mike Cameron and Chris Duffy running into the outfield walls, Ryan Braun arriving late to the game, pinch-hitting and driving in two runs and Rickie Weeks having a career game on both defense and offense.

Milwaukee scored a run in the first on some small ball as Hart and Hardy singled. Rickie flied out, sending Hart to third. An awkward fielder's choice play at first left Fielder safe and Corey scoring a run.

Gallardo walked Adam LaRoche to start the Pirates' second and Brandon Moss' triple evened the score at 1-1. Gallardo struggled, but managed to get out of the inning without any more damage.

Andy LaRoche hit a home run off the left field foul pole in the fourth and a Freddy Sanchez double turned into another run on a Nate McLouth single in the fifth making it 3-1 all the way into the 8th when Braun's bloop single into shallow right scored Hardy and Fielder, evening the score at 3-3.

Jason Jaramillo drove Ramon Vazquez in the bottom of the ninth to give the Pirates a one-run lead and gave us the setup for Kendall, Counsell and Hardy to score a small-ball run and then Rickie Weeks' dramatic three-run home run and finally, Trevor Hoffman's first save on the road as a Brewer.

The win was Milwaukee's 16th straight against the Pirates, tying an NL record.

-tristarscoop

Phillies vs. Brewers Series Preview: April 21-23

Matt Swartz — Tue, 21 Apr 2009 22:22:56 -0000

More photos » by H. Rumph Jr - AP

8 months ago: Philadelphia Phillies' Raul Ibanez hits a two-run home run against the San Diego Padres in the ninth inning of a baseball game Sunday, April 19,, 2009, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/H. Rumph Jr.)

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The Phillies (5-6) take on the Milwaukee Brewers (4-8) this week. The Brewers have lost four straight series to start 2009. The Phillies' rotation has been adjusted due to Monday's rainiout, so Joe Blanton will start the series for the Phillies. Here are the pitching matchups:

TUESDAY 7:05-- Jamie Moyer vs. Manny Parra

WEDNESDAY 7:05-- Joe Blanton vs. Braden Looper

THURSDAY 1:05-- Cole Hamels vs. Dave Bush

(Edit: Looper now listed as Wednesday's starter and Bush now listed as Thursday's starter)

Without further ado, here are the detailed statistics and splits for the Brewers and Phillies:

BREWERS

LINE UP

The Brewers' lineup collectively demolishes lefty pitchers. Prince Fielder is the lone lefty power hitter. The rest of the lineup are all righties, who hit lefties especially well. They have a lot of guys with power, overall straight down from 1-7 (Sorry Jason Kendall). The 2-5 hitters are Hart/Braun/Fielder/Hardy and all are very good hitters. They don't have any guys with great OBP but they are all pretty decent at reaching base, and they score their runs by getting extra base hits.

1) 2B Rickie Weeks (R)

projection average (proj): .255/.360/.420
projected BB/PA (bb): 13%
projected K/AB (k): 24%
career gb% (gb): 45%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 16%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 11%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): average overall-- very high infield hit rate leads to very good infield hit rate on groundballs, very poor on flyballs as he pops out a lot
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): doesn't swing all that much and has pretty good eye overall, slightly below average at making contact
righty/lefty (r/l): .741 vs .809 ops; 1.3 vs 2.2 k/bb; slightly more power against lefties, but primary different is whether he makes contact and especially whether he walks
home/away (h/a): 1.7 k/bb at home and 2.4 on road; better ops on road but mostly on a babip difference
pull/opposite (p/o): somewhat of a pull hitter
anything else (other): none

2) Corey Hart (R)

proj: .280/.330/.485
bb: 6.5%
k: 20%
gb: 40%
iff: 7%
ifh: 8%
babip: decent infield hit rate, lowish infield fly rate, makes solid contact, so maybe .315ish
s/c/z: okay eye but major free swinger, not very good contact skill
r/l: 3.7 vs 2.1 k/bb; .788 vs .877 ops; better babip vs lhp, only a little more power
h/a: pretty similar k/bb and babip, but more power at home
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles a lot against power pitchers

3) Ryan Braun (R)

proj: .295/.355/.570
bb: 7%
k: 21%
gb: 39%
iff: 12%
ifh: 10%
babip: hits the ball very hard, and is above average on groundballs because of that and his relatively high infield hit rate. does well on line drives due to power. probably a .325ish babip hitter especially since he is a good contact hitter for a power hitter.
s/c/z: a bit of a free swinger, but pitchers still throw him a lot of pitches in the strike zone anyway. makes pretty good contact for a power hitter, but still slightly below average overall.
r/l: .864 vs 1.109 ops, 4.4 vs 1.5 k/bb. more power vs lefties too by a long shot and higher babip as he hits the ball harder. should see righties whenever possible.
h/a: much better power at home and .992/.868 ops diff, and k/bb difference is distinct too: 2.5 vs 5.0.
p/o: pull hitter, but not more than other power hitters
other: struggles relatively more than others against power pitchers

4) Prince Fielder (L)

proj: .285/.350/.550
bb: 13%
k: 21%
gb: 39%
iff: 11%
ifh: 3%
babip: average overall
s/c/z: swings a little bit more than usual with good eye, slightly below average contact, doesn't see strikes very much
r/l: .947 vs .795 ops; 1.4 vs 2.9 k/bb; much more power against righties
h/a: walks more at home but otherwise very similar numbers
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

5) J.J. Hardy (R)

proj: .275/.340/.460
bb: 8%
k: 15%
gb: 44%
iff: 14%
ifh: 7%
babip: slighty below average due to high popup rate
s/c/z: low swing rate, good eye though swinging at more pitches out of zone over last few years, and pretty high contact rate, sees a lot of strikes (maybe batting order before moved down)
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.0 k/bb difference; way more power against lhp; .715/.926 OPS difference
h/a: not much difference
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

6) Mike Cameron (R)

proj: .250/.330/.430
bb: 11%
k: 28%
gb: 35%
iff: 11%
ifh: 9%
babip: average overall
s/c/z: great eye but slighty below average contact skill
r/l: 2.5 vs 1.5 k/bb; .766 vs .855 ops
h/a: more power on road, though that could be playing in hitters parks; other numbers same
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

7) Bill Hall (R)

proj: .250/.350/.430
bb: 9%
k: 28%
gb: 39%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: gets a lot of groundballs in the hole, probably since he spreads the ball around wall
s/c/z: below average contact skill, average eye
r/l: 3.8 vs 2.3 k/bb; .739 vs .853; more power against lefties too
h/a: definitely way more power at home, and a little bit less contact, but similar otherwise
p/o: spreads ball around very well
other: struggles especially against power pitchers and flyball pitchers

8) Jason Kendall (R)

proj: .260/.330/.330
bb: 8%
k: 9.5%
gb: 49%
iff: 7%
ifh: 7%
babip: doesn't hit the ball very hard in general and isn't all that fast, so he's below average, maybe around .280ish
s/c/z: it seems that he used to have a pretty god eye, but now he swings more at pitches out of the strike zone, but makes great contact still
r/l: doesn't seem sizably better one way or the other
h/a: doesn't seem to have much of a home/away split in his career overall, but k/bb numbers a bit better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

BENCH

Not a lot to see here. The Brewers' bench are not particularly good power hitters or contact hitters, and their on-base skill is poor is well. Other than catcher Mike Rivera, the Brewers only have one right handed pinch hitter in light hitting Casey McGahee.

C Mike Rivera (R)

proj: .240/.290/.330
bb: 6%
k: 20%
gb: 42%
iff: 26%
ifh: 4%
babip: a lot of popups, so very low
s/c/z: swings at a lot of pitches overall
r/l: not enough info to tell really, somewhat of a reverse split
h/a: hits the ball much harder on contact at home but similar contact and eye at home and away
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

IF Casey McGehee (R)

proj: .260/.310/.375
bb: 7.5%
k: 18.5%
gb: around 45-50% in minors
iff: around 11% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: projected a little below average, probably lack of power is why
s/c/z: so far looks to have poor contact skill and high swing rate but very limited info
r/l: much better k/bb in minors against lefties, but not clear yet
h/a: much better at home in minors
p/o: ?
other: none

IF Craig Counsell (L)

proj: .235/.330/.315
bb: 12%
k: 16.5%
gb: 49%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: low infield hits, high infield fly rate, and not much power-- below average
s/c/z: good eye, doesn't swing much, great contact skill
r/l: 1.0 vs 1.5 k/bb; no power vs lhb really at all
h/a: a little better k/bb numbers at home
p/o: pull hitter, especially for a non-power hitter
other: a little better against groundball pitchers and power pitchers

OF Chris Duffy (L)

proj: .260/.320/.380
bb: 7.5%
k: 21%
gb: 58%
iff: 6%
ifh: 11%
babip: a little above average because he hits a lot of groundballs and gets a lot of infield hits
s/c/z: about average
r/l: 2.5 vs 4.2 k/bb, .702 vs .636 ops
h/a: much better at home so far
p/o: slight pull hitter but spreads ball around well
other: none

1B/OF Brad Nelson (L)

proj: .255/.330/.400 (though lots of variance)
bb: 10.5%
k: 21%
gb: 50% in minors
iff: 10% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: projections vary a lot, and i'm not sure i have enough data to decide
s/c/z: thus far very good eye, average contact
r/l: better against righties i nmiors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

ROTATION

Manny Parra starts Tuesday against the Phillies. He's pretty average overall, but he does well against lefties and will be a challenge for the Phillies. He does have some control problems, which the Philleis should exploit. On Wednesday, the Phillies face Dave Bush. Bush is especially good against righties and somewhat homerun prone. The Phillies seem particularly less vulernable to Bush especially in CBP. Thursday's start has not yet been announced, though indications are that Braden Looper will start. Braden Looper does pretty well against the Phillies' hitters in general, but he sure struggles with Ryan Howard. He has surrendered 4 homeruns and 2 walks and 0 strikeouts in 7 plate appearances for Howard, good for an OPS of 4.057.

TUESDAY OPPONENT: Manny Parra (L)

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.6 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 49%
pitches: 56% fb, 17% cb, 13% ch, 11% sf, 3% sl
r/l: 1.8 vs 2.8; .769 vs .685 ops
h/a: similar k/bb but much more power thus far for hitters on road against him

Parra vs. Phillies:

no one with more than 2 ab, but team went 7/10 with 5 BB and 1 K ever off of him

WEDNESDAY OPPONENT: Braden Looper (R)

proj avg: 4.60 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.1 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 49%
pitches: 64% fb, 18% sf, 16% sl, 1% ch
r/l: 2.0 vs 1.6 k/bb, but way more power surrendered to lefties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.6 k/bb, but way more powre surrendered on road

Looper vs. Phillies:

Rollins: 8/30, 2 2B, 3 BB, 6 K
Victorino: 1/7, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 4/11, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 4/5, 4 HR, 2 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 0/1
Feliz: 1/13, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 SAC, 1 GDP, 0 XBH
Coste: 3/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K

THURSDAY OPPONENT: Dave Bush (R)

proj avg: 4.30 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 51% fb, 17% ct, 17% cb, 12% ch, 3% sl

r/l: 3.8 vs 2.5 k/bb; similar otherwise so far

h/a: much more power surrendered on road but similar k/bb

Bush vs. Phillies (including NLDS):

Rollins: 5/18, 3 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Victorino: 2/11, 1 BB, 3 K
Utley: 5/12, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 2 K
Howard: 6/16, 2 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Werth: 2/10, 1 2B, 1 3B, 0 BB, 2 K
Ibanez: 0/4, 1 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 4/14, 2 HR, 0 BB, 3 K
Coste: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 6/13, 1 2B, 2 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 4/14, 2 2B, 0 BB, 2 K

NOT FACING US: Yovani Gallardo (R)

proj avg: 3.75 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 8.5 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 59% fb, 31% cb, 7% sl, 4% ch
r/l: 3.4 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: 3.2 vs 2.1 k/bb

NOT FACING US: Jeff Suppan (R)

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 3.3 BB/9, 5.0 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 46%
pitches: 51% fb, 24% sl, 16% ch, 10% cb
r/l: 1.8 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: 1.8 vs 1.6 k/bb, more hr surrendered away

BULLPEN

The current closer for the Brewers is Carlos Villanueva. He's pretty good against righties and lefties, but not fabulous against either. The rest of the bullpen is filled mostly with average guys. Mitch Stetter is a definite LOOGY, and will be tough against Ryan Howard with his slider being his outpitch. He struggles a lot against righties though. Seth McClung is also lefty, but isn't a particularly good LOOGY, and has normal splits. Our old friend R.J. Swindle who had a brief stint with the Phillies last year has been recalled by the Brewers recently-- he's a lefty as well.

CL Carlos Villanueva (R)

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 42%
pitches: 36% fb, 25% ch, 24% sl, 14% cb
r/l: 2.6 vs 2.4 k/bb
h/a: 2.6 vs 2.4 k/bb; much more hittable on road

Todd Coffey (R)

proj avg: 4.30 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 54%
pitches: 70% fb, 29% sl, 1% ch
r/l: 2.9 vs 1.3; more power surrendered to rhb though (selection bias?)
h/a: 2.4 vs 2.1; similar otherwise

Mitch Stetter (L)

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 4.3 BB?9, 8.6 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 49% fb, 51% sl
r/l: 0.9 vs 2.7 k/bb-- only faces very weak righties masking severe advantage against lefties
h/a: 0.9 vs 2.9 k/bb

Jorge Julio (R)

proj avg: 4.30 ERA, 4.9 BB/9, 9.3 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 43%
pitches: 52% fb, 32% sl, 16% ch
r/l: 2.4 vs 1.6 and more power surrendered against lefties tooo
h/a: no real split

Mark DiFelice (R)

proj avg: 4.15 ERA, 2.2 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 29%
pitches: 72% ct, 16% ch, 7% fb, 5% cb
r/l: 6.0 vs 2.7 k/bb thus far in career
h/a: not enough info

Seth McClung (L)

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 5.0 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 72% fb, 19% cb, 7% sl, 2% ch
r/l: no real splits
h/a: slightly better at home but not all that much

R.J. Swindle (L)

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 41% in minors
pitches: 48% fb, 39% sl, 9% cb (55mph), 4% ch (for phillies in majors last year)
r/l: 38/2 k/bb vs lhp in AAA last year, 29/6 k/bb vs rhp in AAA last year
h/a: not enough info

ON DISABLED LIST:

Trevor Hoffman (R)

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 34%
pitches: 60% fb, 34% ch, 6% sl, 0.1% cb
r/l: 5.2 vs 3.1 k/bb, more hr surrendered against rhb but that's probably selection bias
h/a: 4.9 vs 3.0 k/bb and .569 vs .647 ops

David Riske (R)

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 37%
pitches: 84% fb, 14% sf, 2% sf, 0.1% CB
r/l: 2.6 VS 1.6 k/bb
h/a: 2.0 VS 2.2 k/bb

PHILLIES

LINE UP

The heart of the Phillies lineup leans further to the left than Ralph Nader. The rest of the lineup is pretty well balanced, but with Utley hitting 3rd, Howard hitting 4th, and Ibanez hitting 6th, managers have an advantage to use lefties against the Phillies in key situations. The team is absolutely positioned to mash righties well, and fortunately that is who they'll face this weekend-- the Padres have no lefties on their staff at all. Both of the switch hitters atop the lineup hit lefties a little better than righties, and the bottom of the lineup has two righties. The Phillies' catcher Carlos Ruiz is on the disabled list now with a strained rib cage, so Chris Coste and Lou Marson will be splitting time. Lou Marson is a pretty highly touted catching prospect who had an extraordinary year in AA last year, though has yet to hit for much power.

1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S)

projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb. otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.

2) CF Shane Victorino (S)

proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year

3) 2B Chase Utley (L)

proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters

4) 1B Ryan Howard (L)

proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep. also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though. probably above average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes. however, he is pretty good at distinguishing pulls from strikes despite the consensus on him. he makes terrible contact overall though
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!" in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably. his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp. he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip. i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road. very similar hr numbers. 2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominates flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate against them) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position

5) RF Jayson Werth (R)

proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year

6) LF Raul Ibanez (L)

proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none

7) 3B Pedro Feliz (R)

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes. swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home. likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related

8) C Chris Coste (R)

proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat

BENCH

Like their lineup, the Phillies' bench is much better from the left side. Dobbs and Stairs are two solid lefthanded pinch hitters with power. Stairs is by far more patient and is much more successful against lefties than Dobbs. From the right side, the Phillies have superutility man Eric Bruntlett. Bruntlett struggles mightily against RHP, but actually has very solid numbers against LHP. Bruntlett can be used as a counterswitch when managers bring in lefties to face Dobbs or Stairs. The Phillies other RHB on the bench is Miguel Cairo. He is not a very good hitter, but is flexible and can play many positions.

IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R)

proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb. he should be used as a counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

IF Greg Dobbs (L)

proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters. given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp. in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp. he should never see them. absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers

OF Matt Stairs (L)

proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency

IF/OF Miguel Cairo (R)

proj: .255/.315/.335
bb: 7%
k: 15%
gb: 45%
iff: 11%
ifh: 7%
babip: not much power so slightly below average
s/c/z: okay eye, maybe a little above average; makes good contact
r/l: 1.6 vs 2.0 k/bb; .647 vs .735 ops
h/a: virtually no split at all, somewhat better walk rate at home
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

C Lou Marson (R)

proj: .270/.345/.400
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 59% in minors in 08
iff: 7% in minors in 08
ifh: ?
babip: very above average in minors, bizarrely high on flyballs and groundballs, and this seems to be without a significant reason
s/c/z: ?
r/l: better k/bb in minors vs rhp but tough to tell
h/a: 0.7 vs 1.5 k/bb; much higher infield fly rate on road (10.6% vs 3.5%)
p/o: ?
other: high walk rate in minors may be at risk in majors if he doesn't develop power

DISABLED LIST: Carlos Ruiz (R)

proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey. his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lot
s/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers, currently on DL with strained rib cage, probably longer than 15 days as originally thought

ROTATION

The Phillies rotation finally got its first quality start on Thursday, albeit in a loss. Ace Cole Hamels has struggled with velocity and location in the early going. He had elbow soreness in Spring Training, but the MRI came back fine. He still struggled as he worked his way back and had a very bad starter in Colorado for his first start. He added in an extra throw day between starts this past week, and hopes this can help him with both the velocity and the location. We will have a better picture of where he stands over his next couple starter. Enigmatic Brett Myers starts Saturday night's game for the Phillies. His main struggles consistently come early on. If he can mix in his curveball better, he should be more successful. On the heels of a fabulous Spring Training, Chan Ho Park beat out three younger competitors for the last spot in the Phillies rotation and he will go Sunday. Towards the end of the Spring, I admit to endorsing his use in the rotation only because of how much better he had been than before in the Spring. Despite a biased sample of lower quality hitters, the difference in his K and BB rates was statistically significant. Park did not make me look too smart in his first start in the rain in Colorado. His trouble has always been retiring lefties, so his success will depend on his ability to get some of the Padres tougher lefties out. On Monday, Jamie Moyer will pitch Monday evening's game. The 46-year old has struggled somewhat early on, but hopes to rebound Monday.

TUESDAY STARTER: Jamie Moyer (L)

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets

Moyer vs. Brewers (including NLDS):

Kendall: 10/31, 1 2B, 2 BB, 2 K
Cameron: 4/19, 1 2B, 3 BB, 7 K, 1 HBP
Hall: 5/9, 2 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Hardy: 5/10, 2 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Fielder: 2/9, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Weeks: 3/8, 2 2B, 3 BB, 2 K
Hart: 4/8, 2 2B, 2 BB, 1 K
Braun: 3/8, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Counsell: 1/2, 1 2B

WEDNESDAY STARTER: Joe Blanton (R)

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games

Blanton vs. Brewers (including NLDS):

Cameron: 2/7, 2 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Hardy: 2/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Fielder: 2/6, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Hart: 1/5, 1 3B, 0 BB, 1 K
Braun: 1/6, 0 BB, 3 K
Counsell: 1/4, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Kendall: 0/4, 1 BB, 0 K

THURSDAY STARTER: Cole Hamels (L)

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant. ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar. most likely he strikes out more at night.

Hamels vs. Brewers (including NLDS):

Hall: 3/18, 0 BB, 6 K
Fielder: 4/18, 2 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Hart: 2/16, 0 BB, K
Hardy: 4/14, 2 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Weeks: 2/12, 2 2B, 3 BB, 6 K
Braun: 3/13, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 3 K
Kendall: 2/11, 1 2B, 1 BB, 4 K
Cameron: 2/9, 1 HR, 4 BB, 4 K
Counsell: 1/3

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Brett Myers (R)

proj avg: 4.15 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 47%
pitches: 48% fb, 23% cb, 18% sl, 9% ch, 1% ct, 0.2% sf
r/l: .788 vs .747 ops despite 3.1 vs 1.95 k/bb; main issue is much higher HR rate vs rhb, slightly higher babip vs them as well; does not seem to be selection bias
h/a: .738 vs .800 ops; 2.7 vs 2.15 k/bb; slightly higher HR rate at home, but that is probably park factors as he surrenders far more doubles on road
other: HR rate is bizarre-- very few pitchers have the HR/Flyball rate he does. My personal suspicion is that statistics that don't exhibit much persistence despite what common sense suggests only do not exhibit persistence specifically because players make adjustments. If you throw fastball after fastball on the outside corner on every 1-2 count, the hitters will respond by hitting singles to the opposite field over and over again and your BABIP will go up. However, pitchers learn to mix up their pitches and BABIP ends up lacking persistence due to the constant game theoretical reaction that pitchers and hitters take. For Myers, his bizarre refusal to use his curveball early in the game leaves him especially vulernable to RHB who know it isn't coming. A little game theoretical mixed strategy would probably allow him to finally live up to his peripherals which suggest a low HR rate and borderline ace stuff.

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Chan Ho Park (R)

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

BULLPEN

Lidge has been nowhere near as effective as the Phillies closer in the early going this year, but still has not blown a save despite letting two games come to within one run. His HR rate was the key to his improvement and he is likely due for some regression. However, that still leaves him as one of the best closers in baseball. Ryan Madson has stepped up to be an elite setup man recently, as his velocity improved mightily over the course of 2008 and has started strong in 2009. The Phillies will have to make do against LHB with J.C. Romero suspended through May. Scott Eyre, Jack Taschner, and J.A. Happ are the Phillies' lefties in the pen. Happ does not have especially difficult stuff against lefties, though, and will probably be the long man. Eyre and Taschner both should not face RHB, especially Taschner who exemplified that inability well against the Nationals on Thursday. Chad Durbin is somewhat streaky, but I've remained bearish on him for a while. He still is a reasonable middle reliever to use at times. Condrey is the other middle reliever, but he should not face lefties at all if possible. The Phillies' bullpen has been extraordinary since the beginning of 2008, and has kept them in games in 2009 thus far. It is due for some regression, but I suppose the rotation is due for some improvement as well.

CL Brad Lidge (R)

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Ryan Madson (R)

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all

Scott Eyre (L)

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Jack Taschner (L)

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 57% fb, 30% sl, 13% ch
r/l: 1.45 vs 2.2 k/bb; .754 vs .747-- large selection bias where he faces only very good lefties and not very good righties
h/a: .698 vs .797 ops; 2.1 vs 1.5 k/bb

Chad Durbin (R)

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise

Clay Condrey (R)

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

J.A. Happ (L)

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

SUSPENDED: J.C. Romero (L)

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB?9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

Where's the Bench?

KLSnow — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 19:47:11 -0000

More photos » by Gus Ruelas - AP

Have you seen Brad Nelson? He hasn't been photographed since this was taken on April 4.

Browse more photos »

So we spent a lot of time and internet space discussing three players this spring: Chris Duffy, Brad Nelson and Casey McGehee. They had excellent springs (for whatever that's worth), and they beat out the likes of Mike Lamb and Tony Gwynn Jr. to earn three spots on the Brewer bench.

Since Opening Day, however, we haven't discussed them much at all. In fact, they've hardly been seen since then. Duffy, Nelson and McGehee have a combined 16 at bats in the Brewers' first 12 games. For context, Craig Counsell has 15 by himself, and Yovani Gallardo, Dave Bush and Jeff Suppan also combined for 16.

There are positives and negatives to this, to be certain. Certainly, while all three of these players had solid springs, none of them earned the right to unseat any of the regulars they're backing up. We all knew coming into the season that Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, Corey Hart, Rickie Weeks and Mike Cameron would get the vast majority of playing time, and justifiably so. With that said, Mike Cameron is the only member of that group that's even received one day off this spring. At times it even looks like management is making an effort to keep the bats away from these guys: Over the weekend, McGehee entered one game as part of a double switch but was pinch hit for when his turn came up, and Jeff Suppan was allowed to hit for himself in the seventh inning yesterday with all three of these guys on the bench.

None of the guys on the end of the Brewer bench should be playing everyday. With that said, I think each of them should be playing a little more: maybe one start a week, for the following reasons:

Rest. Corey Hart blames his September 2008 slump on being worn out. He came to camp in better shape in 2009, but could probably still use an off day every now and then. Ryan Braun says his intercostal muscle is fine, but even if it is Braun could probably use a breather from time to time, especially since he was thrown back in head first after missing most of camp. On a day-to-day level, keeping all of the regulars in the Brewers lineup gives them the best chance to win each day. But on the grander scale, giving them a breather every couple of weeks might help keep them fresh for August and September.

Refocus. Sometimes a day off and some extra work in the cage can help a player get things going in the right direction. Prince Fielder is 2 for his last 20. Ryan Braun is six for his last 37 and has just two extra base hits in that stretch. Both players are very valuable to the team in the long run, but getting them a day to correct themselves could make them even more valuable once they're back.

Remove rust. If something were to happen to one of the Brewer regulars, odds are one of these three guys would be called upon to pick up the slack. How sharp can one expect Brad Nelson to be when he hasn't faced live pitching in a week or more? None of these guys are All Stars in waiting, but asking them to step up and hit in key situations when they've barely been used isn't a realistic expectation.

Each of the three players in question have at least three spots in the field where they can play. I know some people will disagree with me on this, but I feel like it's in the team's best interest to find all three of them an opportunity to start a game an average of once a week. What do you think?

Poll

How would you like to see the Brewers use Brad Nelson, Casey McGehee and Chris Duffy?

They should be playing less.

13 votes

The current level of usage is the correct level.

97 votes

They should get more consistent time.

224 votes

At least one of these three should be starting over a current regular.

15 votes

349 votes | Poll has closed