SB Nation - Zach Duke

Report: Reid Brignac "Primary Trade Target" Of Pittsburgh Pirates

Tommy Rancel — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 00:12:45 -0000

More photos » by Chris O'Meara - AP

John Perrotto is reporting that once again, Reid Brignac has captured the attention of the Pittsburgh Pirates front office. Perrotto says that once the winter meetings kick off in Indianapolis next week, Brignac will be the primary trade target for the Buccos. Their affinity for Brignac dates back to the summer of 2008 when the Rays and Pirates discussed a potential swap of Brignac + for then Pirate, Jason Bay. The deal was even reported as done, but as you all know Bay ended up in Boston.

While Perrotto doesn't mention who the Rays asked for in return, he mentioned that the Pirates have tried to pass off closer Matt Capps and possibily have thrown around the idea of starter Zach Duke. Duke, an All Star in 2009, wouldn't make much sense for the Rays. Sure, he is young (26) and left-handed, but he'd probably the fifth or sixth best starter on the Rays without counting Jeremy Hellickson. He also made $2.2 million dollars last season and will defintely see a nice raise in arbitration with an all star appearance to his credit. The only way I see the Rays acquiring Duke is to flip for additional prospects.

Matt Capps had an ugly 2009 highlighted by his 5.80 ERA and his 4.90 FIP. Either number you choose to look at is ugly, but hey he had 27 saves! The good news is Capps appears to have broken a few mirrors and stepped on a few cracks at some point between the end of 2008 and beginning of 2009 and is in line for some regression. The biggest problem for Capps in 2009 was home runs. Allowing 10 home runs in 54.1 innings, he watched his HR/9 nearly double from 0.84 in '08 to 1.66 in 2009. This can be attributed to a HR/FB rate that also almost doubled from 6.8% to 13.5%. His BABIP also jumped nearly .100 points to .370

In 2007 and 2008, Capps proved to be an above average reliever. With some regression to the mean, he could be back to those levels in 2010. Like Duke, Capps is 26, however, he is under contract for 2009 at a reasonable $2.3 million with some incentives for games finished. The bad news is it is the final year of a two-year deal. Stuff wise, Capps sits in the mid 90s and throws a slider and a change-up. Despite the solid velocity, he doesn't strikeout many, but keeps his walks in check (career BB/9 1.66).

Obviously, I wouldn't agree to a Brignac for Capps deal straight up, but it could be a starting point. The fact that the Rays would be giving up more controlled Brignac years would mean the Pirates would need to sweeten the pot quite a bit.

Pirates Can't Learn Much From Phillies

Charlie — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 22:05:52 -0000

More photos » by Ross D. Franklin - AP

Philadelphia Phillies' Cole Hamels throws against the Arizona Diamondbacks, Tuesday, July 28, 2009, in Phoenix. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)

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John Mehno has the right idea in this Beaver County Times column about the differences between the Pirates and Phillies--it's not primarily about spending, it's about building by acquiring amateur talent. But while the technique of comparing some great Phillies draft picks (Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and so on) to picks the Pirates botched at similar points in their drafts is effective for an article written with a word count for a general audience, it doesn't quite tell the whole story.

The Phillies' case is really weird. If you look at their drafts under previous GM Ed Wade (that's basically the time frame described in the Beaver County article), it's very surprising they've been so successful. Working backwards, the best player they got in 2005 was current Athletics reliever Josh Outman; they also got current Reds reliever Matt Maloney. That was it. In 2004 they got J.A. Happ in the third round, Jason Jaramillo in the second, and Lou Marson in the fourth, but they also took Greg Golson as a dubious tools pick in the first round and got nothing in the later rounds. In 2003 they had no first- or second-round pick; they got Michael Bourn and Kyle Kendrick, and that was it.

In 2002 the Phils took Cole Hamels in the first round, which was obviously a great pick, but they got absolutely nothing else. In 2001, it was Gavin Floyd in the first round and Howard in the fifth, and absolutely nothing else. In 2000, they got Utley, Taylor Buchholz and nothing else. In 1999, it was Brett Myers, Marlon Byrd and nothing else. (They also drafted Joe Saunders, but didn't sign him.)

Now, maybe this doesn't sound too noteworthy to some of you. Maybe you think that if you get one good player out of a draft, that's great, and to a certain extent that's true. In this case, the results speak for themselves. But what's odd to me about the Phillies' drafts under Wade is how incredibly thin they were. Wade seemed to get a star player and almost nothing else every year for several seasons in a row. That's strange.

To see what I mean, let's take a look at Wade's first draft for the Phillies in 1998. He took Pat Burrell with the first overall pick (a bit of a no-brainer), but he also got several moderately useful players later on, such as Jason Michaels, Geoff Geary and Nick Punto.

In the grand scheme of things, it doesn't really matter that much if you fail to identify the next Nick Punto in your draft, but it does raise the question of why, if the Phillies are supposed to be a good example of intelligent drafting, they were able to identify so many star players but so few other future productive major leaguers.

Here's an example. In 2000 the Phillies got Utley, who single-handedly made the draft a very successful one for Philadelphia. The same year, the Pirates got Chris Young, Nate McLouth, Ian Snell, Jose Bautista and Sean Burnett. I'd say the Pirates actually did a much better job in that draft, even though it turned out worse--Dave Littlefield stupidly traded away Young a couple years later, and first-rounder Burnett's career was derailed with a ton of injuries. Drafting players who will stay healthy and helping them stay healthy involve skills, of course, and it certainly helps to not take a pitcher in the first round every year like the Pirates did. But there's luck involved too. For example, the Phillies were notably lucky that, for example, high school draftee Hamels basically made it to the majors with his elbow and shoulder intact, particularly after he missed huge chunks of his minor league career with injuries.

In 2001 the Phillies got Floyd, later sent to the White Sox in the Jim Thome trade, and Howard. That was all. Again, the Pirates had a much more robust draft, grabbing a number of moderately useful players in Zach Duke, Chris Shelton, Jeff Keppinger, Chris Duffy, Jonathan Albaladejo and Rajai Davis. (They also might have had some shot of signing 11th-rounder Stephen Drew if Littlefield, who was hired shortly after the draft, hadn't dropped the ball.) The Pirates royally messed up their first-round pick, John Van Benschoten, and that was their fault, but again, I'm not really convinced that Wade and the Phillies had a better idea of what they were doing.

Of course, Littlefield and his team started drafting in 2002, and after that all bets are off. There's no defending much of anything Littlefield did. My point, though, is that I'm not sure the Wade-era Phillies are a particularly good model here. In fact, it looks to me that they repeatedly got very lucky with about one pick each year and totally bombed the rest of their drafts under Wade, with the exceptions of 1998 and 2004. I don't mean to take anything away from the Phillies, who have generally been pretty well run since Wade left. But If there are things the Pirates can learn from this, they are the very basic points that, first, it's generally very important not to screw up first-round picks, and second, that it's important to build a core of homegrown stars. Beyond that, the Phillies' example doesn't tell us a whole lot.

Cueto goes to 11! Reds win, 8-4.

Brendanukkah — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 03:40:09 -0000

Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Joey Votto. The Irresistable Force went 2-3 with a double, a home run, three RBI, a run scored, and two walks. Dude's good.

Key Plays

Johnny Cueto got off to a rough start. He walked Andrew McCutchen, then gave up a run-scoring double to Andy LaRoche. It seems like it's been awhile since we've harped on all the first inning runs the Reds have given up. They gave up a lot.
In the second inning, the Reds used the same walk-double strategy to even the game. Scott Rolen drew the walk, and Darnell McDonald hit the double. Walks to Ramon Hernandez and Drew Stubbs loaded the bases, but Paul Janish flew out to end the inning.
Scott Rolen homered in the third. Know what? I haven't really missed Edwin since we traded him.
McDonald led off the fourth inning with a single, and went to third on Ramon Hernandez's single. Then he scored on a passed ball. After Cueto and Stubbs made outs, Paul Janish walked, and he and Hernandez scored on Joey Votto's double. Votto was thrown out trying to stretch the hit into a triple.
Cueto ran into trouble in the sixth inning. He gave up a leadoff single to Garrett Jones, and a walk to Brandon Moss one out later. Then Delwyn Young hit a three run homer to bring the Pirates within one run.
The Pirates hadn't counted on El Nino Destructor, however. In the bottom of the sixth, Ramon Hernandez doubled to lead off, and Willy Taveras came in to run for him. Then Juan Francisco hit a double to right field and Taveras scored. ROAR! Francisco then scored on successive sacrifices by Stubbs and Janish. ROAR!
Votto homered in the eighth inning. Such a giver.

via www.fangraphs.com

Other Notes

Brandon Phillips had been 0-16 before singling in the eighth. If he gets five RBI tomorrow, he'll finish with 100 on the season.
Francisco Cordero pitched a scoreless ninth, but it was not a save situation. He's still one save shy of 40 for the season.
Joey Votto's 25th home run gave him a career high.
With the win, Johnny Cueto joins fellow starting pitchers Bronson Arroyo, Homer Bailey, Edinson Volquez, and Justin Lehr to not have a losing record.
Since both the Brewers and Reds won, the Reds have clinched fourth place in the NL Central.

Final - 10.3.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Pittsburgh Pirates	1	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	4	6	0
Cincinnati Reds	0	1	1	3	0	2	0	1	X	8	11	0
WP: Johnny Cueto (11 - 11) LP: Zach Duke (11 - 16)

Complete Coverage >

Post-Gazette Focuses on Zach Duke Conspiracy

Charlie — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 03:46:04 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

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Only a Pirate fan...

...Could take a game that included one of the most amazing offensive performances of the year and turn it into an uproar about John Russell's relatively inconsequential decision to remove Zach Duke from the game with one out left. The commenters in the last thread who are complaining about this story have it right.

In yesterday's game, the home finale, Andy LaRoche went 5-for-5 with two homers and two doubles. And yet the Post-Gazette would rather focus on Duke, who was removed from the game after giving up his first run of the game with two outs in the ninth. Russell's explanation--that he wanted Donald Veal to get a bit of work, and that he wanted to give the fans a chance to cheer Duke before the game ended--was stupid, but it wasn't deserving of any sort of moral approbation, and it certainly shouldn't take top billing over what LaRoche did, which was amazing.

Particularly bizarre is the Post-Gazette's insinuation that there's some kind of conspiracy in play here:

Duke is second-time eligible for salary in the coming offseason, and a fourth complete game would have bolstered his bargaining position, tying him for the league lead with San Francisco's twin aces, Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain.

But team president Frank Coonelly strongly rejected any link.

"It was JR's decision, and the last thing he or anyone else was thinking about at a moment like that is a possible arbitration case in the future," Coonelly said.

Is there any, you know, evidence that the Pirates did this? If not, why are we talking about it? As WTM points out, the idea that there's some conspiracy here is pretty silly. Are we really to believe that Russell hatched this diabolical plan to reduce Duke's salary next year by depriving him of a complete game? Russell doesn't seem nearly that clever, unfortunately. Or did Coonelly or Neal Huntington send Russell a memo before the game? ("JR - Please leave Zach in if he's pitching well. But if he happens to give up a run in the ninth, please take him out so we can keep his salary low. But, uh, not until he gives up a run. Thanks, Frank.") Or did Coonelly or Huntington call Russell during the game? To believe there's a conspiracy here is farfetched at best. The Post-Gazette is giving ammunition to the tinfoil-hat element of the Pirates' fanbase, and I can't identify any justification for them doing so.

It's been a long season. But Monday's game was a great one. The Bucs' third baseman had the best game of any individual Pirates player so far this year (and yes, I think it was probably even better than Andrew McCutchen's three-homer game). Meanwhile, the Pirates' manager made a judgement call by lifting a pitcher in a game that was not a no-hitter, nor even a shutout. And there were perfectly good reasons to take him out of the game. Had Russell simply said, "We worried that he might be wearing down a bit, and we wanted to protect one of our most valuable arms," I don't see how anyone could fail to understand it. They might not agree with it, but it would have been a perfectly reasonable position. And yet some people would prefer to talk about the judgement call. It's strange, and disappointing. This was a great game, and yet the discussion about it has devolved into inane outrage about a far less important issue than the amazing stuff that happened on the field. Well done, Post-Gazette.

....And now I've spent as much space writing about the Duke issue as the LaRoche performance. Ugh.

UPDATE: I quick note on the Post-Gazette's response to concerns about its coverage:

Again, people who were in the stadium, who saw it for themselves might appreciate all of this than those who were not. And I understand the game was not televised, either.

The game might not have been on FSN, but I watched in on MLB.tv and I heard the fans booing, as you would expect them to. I also heard them cheer as Duke was removed. While Duke's exit was probably a bit of a downer for some fans, it never even occurred to me while watching that Russell's hook would become the story of the game. I can't give much of an explanation for the way I felt, but then I'm not sure much explanation is required--LaRoche had 13 total bases! Why wouldn't people look past the manager's decision to remove Duke?

UPDATE: In fairness, I should add that the Post-Gazette was not the only source to emphasize the Duke/Russell angle. John Perrotto did too, for example. I picked on the Post-Gazette mainly because, frankly, that's what I read, or at least the first thing I read.

Dodgers Lose To "The Best, Around"

Eric Stephen — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 19:25:14 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

Andy LaRoche was the man today for the Pirates

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On a day the Dodgers looked to clinch the National League West, Andy LaRoche had the greatest game of his career, with two home runs, two doubles, a single, four runs, and six RBI. Delwyn Young added a double and a walk, but alas both men play for the Pirates now, leading to a 11-1 drubbing by Pittsburgh, delaying the division celebration by another day.

A Chin-Lung Hu sacrifice fly following an Orlando Hudson triple in the ninth inning prevented a shutout, so at least we have that going for us.

LaRoche was a triple shy of the cycle when he laced a double to center in the sixth inning. He made a wide turn at second, but thought better of it, even though it was 8-0 at the time. Still, 13 total bases is nothing to sneeze at. The last player to amass 13 total bases against the Dodgers was Todd Helton at Coors Field on May 29, 2003.

Hiroki Kuroda took the loss, giving up seven runs, but ~~five~~ four of those were unearned, all in the second inning. ~~The last Dodger to give up five unearned runs was Derek Lowe on June 16, 2005.~~ Apparently, one of the runs in that second inning has become earned.

After the Dodger bench was emptied, Juan Castro finished up the game in left field, just the second time in his career he has played the position. He played one inning against the Astros on June 23, 1996, back in his first stint with the Dodgers.

The Dodgers are still going to win the division, some time this week, I'm almost sure of it! They also still have a good lead in the race for best record in the National League. But I'd be lying if I said I wasn't at least slightly worried.

It will be a long and unhappy plane trip to San Diego for the Dodgers. But there is still plenty of baseball to be played, both this week and beyond.

Chad Billingsley starts division clinching attempt number three tomorrow night at Petco Park, against Cesar Ramos, making his first major league start.

WP - Zach Duke (11-15): 8.2 IP, 4 hits, 1 run, 1 walk, 6 strikeouts

LP - Hiroki Kuroda (8-7): 4 IP, 8 hits, 7 runs (3 earned), 2 walks, 3 strikeouts

Box Score

In case you were wondering about the title, Andy LaRoche used to come to bat at Dodger Stadium with this song as his AB music:

Andy LaRoche Goes Berzerk

Charlie — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 18:57:58 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

2 months ago: Pittsburgh Pirates' Andy LaRoche (15) is greeted by teammate Ryan Doumit (41) after scoring on a single by Pirates' Garrett Jones in the second inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers during a baseball game in Pittsburgh Monday, Sept. 28, 2009. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

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5-5, two homers, two doubles, six RBIs against his former team.... and now a curtain call. This is insane. This is a huge day for LaRoche, Zach Duke and the Pirates. It's been wonderful to see LaRoche's hitting pick up this month. As I type this, LaRoche is smiling broadly. I think this is the first time I've ever seen him do that.

UPDATE: Duke narrowly missed a shutout, allowing a triple and a sacrifice fly in the ninth. The Bucs win, 11-1, with a startling amount of that offense coming from LaRoche. Garrett Jones hit a solo homer, though, and Andrew McCutchen had three hits. This was a great series for the Bucs, who take three of four from the Dodgers, the last one in extremely impressive fashion.

UPDATE II: I've argued since he was acquired that LaRoche should have a place in the Pirates' starting lineup, and it's nice to see him have some success. But he's far from out of the woods. Even after today's binge, he still has only a .736 OPS. That's acceptable given his good defense, but the main reason you accept it is because it's only his age-25 season and there's still some room for improvement.

UPDATE III: John Russell's decision to remove Duke with one out left doesn't interest me much, personally, but feel free to discuss that here, too.

Dodgers Order A Side Of Division Title With Breakfast

Eric Stephen — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 14:00:34 -0000

More photos » by Pablo Martinez Monsivais - AP

Will these two be working together in 2009?

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A funny thing happened on the way to the division title. A series of hits, grounders, and sloppy defense thwarted the Dodgers in attempt number one at clinching the division on Sunday. Luckily for the Dodgers they have the luxury of a big lead and have many more opportunities to get the job done.

Starting this morning. It is getaway day in Pittsburgh, so the Dodgers and Pirates will start at 9:35am this morning. What a way to start the work week.

Hiroki Kuroda takes the mound today, looking for his ninth win, which would match his total from last season. Kuroda has won his last three starts, and since returning from getting hit in the head he is 3-1 with a 2.16 ERA and 3.10 FIP in four starts.

Zach Duke pitched very well at Dodger Stadium 13 days ago, allowing only two runs in 7.1 innings in a no-decision. However, since the beginning of August, Duke is 1-6 with a 6.28 ERA and 4.93 FIP over nine starts.

Over his last 17 road games, James Loney is hitting .362/.472/.672 with five home runs, 15 runs batted in, and 13 runs scored.

Rafael Furcal has an 11-game hitting streak, and a 20-game streak of reaching base via hit or walk.

Garrett Jones, who has hit 20 home runs for the Pirates since being called up on June 30, is hitting .333/.424/.556 in September. He will definitely get some votes for NL Rookie of the Year.

Ken Gurnick of MLB.com reported that Chad Billingsley will start Tuesday, followed by Jon Garland Wednesday in San Diego. Vicente Padilla will be available in the bullpen on either Tuesday or Wednesday, depending on whether you choose to read Gurnick's interpretation or that of Dylan Hernandez in the LA Times.

Barry Bloom of MLB.com speculates that Ned Colletti will not return to the Dodgers in 2010 unless he receives a multi-year contract (thanks to BHSportsGuy for the link). Colletti currently has a mutual option for 2010. However, I really wanted to link to this blog post by Bloom for the Bob Dylan reference.

The Rockies are off today.

**********

Don't forget to RSVP for True Blue LA Day at Dodger Stadium, on the next-to-last day of the regular season, October 3 against the Rockies. There are three tickets left.

Get your guesses in for our today's "One, Two, Three Strikes, You're Out," here.

Game Time: 9:35am

TV: Prime Ticket

Baseball Reference Preview

Could the Pirates Lose 110 Games in 2010?

Charlie — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 21:50:23 -0000

More photos » by Alan Diaz - AP

A thought experiment: Brandon Moss may be bad, but if he starts the season hitting .100, is he really a .100 hitter?

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That this post even needs to be written speaks volumes about where the Pirates are right now. But despite the Bucs' spectacular collapse since the trades, I think it's far too early to worry, as many of you have, about losing 110 games next year. It's true that the Pirates' play over the last month would put them on pace for far worse than a 110-loss season. But that doesn't mean a 110-loss season will actually happen. A 110-loss team would be among the worst teams in modern baseball history. In the last 40 years, only two teams, the 2003 Tigers and the 2004 Diamondbacks, have lost as many as 110 games in a season, which means that if the Pirates lost 110, they would have to be considered one of the worst teams in modern baseball history. I think there is plenty of evidence that shows that they are bad. I don't think there is nearly enough to show that they are historically bad.

The irony here is that, way back in 2007, I myself was pointing out that the 2010 Pirates were going to be spectacularly bad. I even suggested what some of you are now saying--that they could lose 110 games. Most of the core players on that 2007 team--Jason Bay, Adam LaRoche, Freddy Sanchez, Jose Castillo, Xavier Nady, Salomon Torres--were scheduled to become free agents after 2009, and Jack Wilson had an expensive 2010 option. In addition, they had one of the worst general managers in the history of baseball at the helm and next to nothing in the farm system. That the Bucs would be quite awful in 2010 has been obvious for a long time now, and frankly Neal Huntington bears very little responsibility for it. In 2007, it looked like a perfect storm of a terrible big-league team, no prospects and inept management was brewing, and I think it was maybe only a little hyperbolic to write that a 110-loss campaign in 2010 was likely.

The reason I don't think it's likely now is that Huntington has taken enough steps to improve the 2010 situation that I think we can remove "historically bad" from the set of likely possibilities for now.

I realize that's a counterintuitive conclusion, since clearly Huntington's eyes are set at a point well beyond 2010 and the Bucs aren't playing very well right now. But without Huntington there would be no Ross Ohlendorf or Daniel McCutchen, who were acquired in the Nady deal. There would be no Charlie Morton, since the Pirates under Littlefield would not allow Nate McLouth to start and therefore to acquire value on the trade market. It's quite possible Littlefield would have started Nyjer Morgan in 2009, but back in mid-2007 his breakout would have been extremely hard to foresee (since Morgan hadn't even made his major league debut at that point), and trading him for Lastings Milledge and Joel Hanrahan would have been even harder to foresee. Without Huntington the Pirates probably still would have had Ian Snell, but they wouldn't have Ronny Cedeno or Jeff Clement. Those guys--Ohlendorf, Morton, Milledge, Hanrahan, Cedeno, Clement--are all major league players. Maybe not great ones, in some cases, but certainly useful ones, and one characteristic of 110-loss teams is that they have very few useful players.

Also, a number of decent prospects--Pedro Alvarez, Jose Tabata, Brad Lincoln, Chase D'Arnaud, Rudy Owens, Ron Uviedo, Jeff Locke, Tim Alderson--will be either in the high minors or on the verge of arriving there. That may sound like a trivial point, but actually it isn't. 110-loss seasons can be avoided simply by having a storehouse of players who might be able to fill in competently.

Now, maybe Littlefield would have traded Bay and some of the other core players, too. I doubted that at the time, though, because doing so would have meant admitting that he basically had nothing after five or six years on the job, and because he was basically acting like 2010 did not exist, as if the Pirates would be contracted before the season started. That was my reason for thinking 110 losses was possible then. Now it appears that Huntington is at least aware that the Pirates will be playing baseball next season. That might not mean much, but it's something.

The most critical point here, though, is that losing 110 games is spectacularly difficult to do. It requires either extreme negligence or a combination of negligence and bad luck. Merely being a very poor team, which I agree the Pirates probably will be, simply does not get the job done. Let's take the two teams that lost 110, for example.

The 2004 Diamondbacks reached 110 losses through both negligence and luck. Not only did they have the worst offense in the league--an outcome that is surely also a possibility for the 2010 Pirates--but they really had no starting rotation after Randy Johnson (who was brilliant) and Brandon Webb. The five pitchers who had the most starts for them were Casey Fossum, Steve Sparks, Casey Daigle, Edgar Gonzalez, and Lance Cormier, and all of those guys had ERAs over six. Arizona finished 27th in the majors in ERA, and one of the three teams that fared worse was the Rockies. And the Diamondbacks still only got to 110 through bad luck--their Pythagorean record was "only" 54-108.

The 2010 Bucs really don't even belong in the same conversation with the '03 Tigers, who lost 119 games. The Tigers only had one pitcher throw more than 20 innings with an ERA below 4.50; the '09 Pirates, by comparison, have seven pitchers currently in their organization who have done that this year. The Tigers basically had one good hitter (Dmitri Young), and the lower part of their lineup and their bench were filled with guys (Brandon Inge, Warren Morris, Ramon Santiago, Shane Halter, Gene Kingsale, Omar Infante, Matt Walbeck, Andres Torres) who just didn't belong in the majors. It wasn't a case of a team merely being bad; it was a case of a team simply not taking the steps necessary to ensure that there was a real team on the field.

When I say that the Pirates are unlikely to lose 110 games next year, I'm not paying the Pirates a compliment. I'm just saying these 110-loss prognostications are the result of either over-the-top despair about the Bucs' recent play, or a misunderstanding about how incredibly hard it actually is to lose 110.

Another possibility is that people think you can extrapolate the Bucs' play the last couple months over the course of an entire season. You can't. By way of example, let's look at Brandon Moss. Let's say he's the Bucs' fourth outfielder next year and he starts the season 6-for-60, for a batting average of .100.

Now, we would be perfectly justified to say that Moss is terrible. We already would have been thinking that Moss is pretty terrible, given the way he hit in 2009. And then he went and started 2010 6-for-60. Ugh! Terrible.

But would be justified to say that he will continue to bat .100? Well, no. True, he already batted .100 in his first 60 at bats, but hitting .100 over the long haul is especially hard to do. First of all, we have to consider that Brandon Moss has, at various points, done things that suggest he can be much better than a .100 hitter. For example, in 2009 he's batting .241. Not very good, but way better than .100. Also, he made his way through the minors and got all the way to the big leagues, even briefly joining a good team, the Boston Red Sox. He has some skill, and players with some skill can usually hit better than .100. Even Mario Mendoza hit .215 for his career.

So we'd be justified to be annoyed at Moss' poor start. We'd also be justified to factor that poor start into our guesses about what he might do going forward. But it wouldn't make much sense to predict he'll be a .100 hitter.

Guessing the 2010 Bucs will lose 110 games is like that. Yes, they've been extremely bad since the trades. But they have three downright functional starting pitchers in Ohlendorf, Zach Duke and Paul Maholm, plus Morton, who easily could make his way into that category next year. They have Andrew McCutchen, who's a plain old good player. They have Garrett Jones who, while due for some serious regression next year, has probably staked a pretty reasonable claim that he's at least going to be useful. They have Ryan Doumit, who in 2008 was a force as an offensively-minded catcher. They have Milledge and Hanrahan, who have shown promise since arriving. They have guys like Ronny Cedeno, Andy LaRoche and Jason Jaramillo who, while they're not exactly inspiring, have shown they at least belong in the majors. There's also at least a reasonable chance that Pedro Alvarez is going to burst onto the scene at some point next season and go nuts.

I'm not saying that's much. It isn't. I'm saying it doesn't take much to avoid 110 losses, and that while anything's possible, I think the Pirates have what it takes. Don't take that as wild-eyed optimism, because again, it isn't. I'm only saying that I think the Pirates can avoid a complete disaster season, and the fact that they've actually been a disaster since the trades doesn't really change that.

"Endre" Ethier Does It Again

Eric Stephen — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 06:44:48 -0000

More photos » by Jae C. Hong - AP

Andre Ethier is making this a common occurence

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Its not fair to expect magical things from Andre Ethier every time he bats in the late innings, but he just keeps delivering! Ethier ended tonight's game by depositing a Phil Dumatrait fastball over the wall in right field, turning a 4-3, 13th inning deficit into a thrilling, 5-4 Dodger victory.

Ethier also came up big in the ninth inning, doubling with one out with the Dodgers down 3-2. A Matt Kemp single tied the game and sent it into extra innings. But the story was his sixth walk-off hit of the season, and fourth walk-off home run. The Dodgers as a team have 12 walk-off wins this season.

Ethier's home run was his 30th of the season, and his ninth inning double was his 40th of the season. He is just the fourth Dodger in history to have 40 doubles and 30 home runs in the same season:

Player	Year	2B	HR
Babe Herman	1930	48	35
Raul Mondesi	1997	42	30
Eric Karros	1999	40	34
Andre Ethier	2009	40	30

Lost in the Andre Ethier show were these subplots of tonight's game:

Randy Wolf came back from a hyper-extended left elbow to pitch seven strong innings, allowing just three runs, gladly picking up his 15th no-decision, tied for the MLB lead
Zach Duke was even better for the Pirates, allowing two runs and four hits over 7.1 innings while striking out seven
Ramon Troncoso and George Sherrill combined for a perfect eighth inning, and were followed by another perfect inning from Jonathan Broxton, who struck out the side
James McDonald pitched three scoreless innings, his longest relief outing of the season. McDonald has a 2.40 ERA as a reliever with 42 strikeouts in 45 innings.

The players get right back at it tomorrow for an early 12:10pm start. Hiroki Kuroda will face Kevin Hart, on Manny Ramirez bobblehead day part deux. Joe Torre said in the pregame show that Russell Martin, Casey Blake, and Rafael Furcal were all likely to rest Wednesday.

Oh yeah, the Rockies lost to the Giants again, pushing the Dodgers' division lead back to five games over Colorado.

Magic Numbers
To win NL West: 11
To clinch a playoff spot: 10

WP - Ronald Belisario (4-3): 1 IP, 1 hit, 1 unearned run, 1 walk, 2 strikeouts

LP - Phil Dumatrait (0-1): 1 batter, 1 home run

Box Score

Dodgers Look To Hyperextend Pirates Road Woes

Eric Stephen — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 22:00:18 -0000

More photos » by Chris Pizzello - AP

Two of the three main people in this photo can hit.

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The Dodgers and Pirates resume their three-game series tonight, and the scales are once again heavily tipped in favor of the home team. The Pirates have not won a series on the road since May 18-21, when they took three of four games in Washington. They have lost an amazing 41 of their past 52 road games, including 14 of their past 15. On the season, the Pirates are 19-53 away from home. The Pirates are threatening to have the worst road record in a season in the last two decades. Both the 2003 Tigers (who lost 119 games) and the 2006 Devil Rays (who lost 101 games) went 20-61 on the road. Of course, both of those teams made the World Series three years later, so Pittsburgh fans might have something to look forward to.

The Dodgers welcome back Randy Wolf tonight, who returns to the mound after missing one start due to a hyper-extended left elbow. Wolf has thrown six straight quality starts, and is 5-0 during that stretch. He also has a streak of 14 straight starts of pitching at least six innings, and has done so in 26 of 30 starts this season.

Zach Duke has really struggled of late, allowing 32 hits and 20 runs (18 earned) in just 13 innings over his last three starts. He has allowed five home runs in those three short starts. Among the 90 MLB pitchers with enough innings to qualify for the ERA title, Duke ranks 87th in strikeouts per nine innings, with 4.31. Duke's 89 strikeouts this season are 14 fewer than Jonathan Broxton. In six career starts against the Dodgers, Duke has never allowed fewer than four runs, and has a 7.53 ERA against them.

Obscure stat of the day: Casey Blake has 10 sacrifice flies this season, the most by any Dodger since Eric Karros had 12 in 2000. This is just the 11th time a Dodger has hit as many as 10 sacrifice flies in a season, headlined by Gil Hodges' club record 19 in 1954.

The Dodgers may have waited until game number 145 this year to play the Pirates, but they won't have to wait long to face them in 2010. Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review tells us the Dodgers will be in Pittsburgh to open 2010.

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Game Time: 7:10pm

TV: KCAL

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