SB Nation - Paul Maholm

Dodgers Offseason Path Appears Set

Eric Stephen — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 07:01:01 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Juan Pierre may be traded to fill a hole in the starting rotation.

Through three days of the winter meetings, the Dodgers haven't made any deals, but we do have a better idea of their plans this offseason. Randy Wolf signed with the Brewers today for $29.75 million over three years, leaving the Dodgers with a sizable void to fill in their starting rotation.

Actually, there are two holes to fill, behind Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, and Hiroki Kuroda. It appears the Dodgers are still in the market for one starting pitcher, but general manager Ned Colletti said he is looking to fill one of the two open rotation slots from within. Ken Gurnick of MLB.com reported:

Colletti said he's comfortable holding the last rotation spot for a Spring Training competition involving James McDonald, Scott Elbert, Josh Lindblom, Charlie Haeger and Ramon Troncoso. Colletti added left-hander Eric Stults to that group he originally listed on Tuesday.

In my mind, Elbert is the favorite of that group, with his electric left arm, but there is plenty of time for that to get sorted out. McDonald had success out of the bullpen (2.72 ERA, 8.70 strikeouts per nine innings), and I can see him returning to that role in 2010, even though I'm not ready to give up on him as a starter just yet. Both Haeger and Stults are out of options, so they will not only be fighting for a starting role at Camelback Ranch, but also will be fighting for their baseball lives.

How the Dodgers fill that other starting rotation slot has yet to be seen, but the Dodgers don't have much room in their budget without getting creative. If the Dodgers wanted to pay a pitcher $10 million a year, they would have either offered Wolf arbitration, or made an offer to him when presented the opportunity by Wolf's agent, Arn Tellem, today. Wolf's deal, coupled with Brad Penny's deal with St. Louis (one year, $7.5 million plus incentives) and the oft-injured Rich Harden's deal with Texas (one year, $7.5 million with an $11.5 million option for 2011), made it clear that most free agent pitchers are simply out of the Dodgers' price range. If they sign a free agent pitcher, it might be someone like a Vicente Padilla and Jon Garland, again. That is, if they come cheaply enough.

Another option to fill the starting pitching void is to trade Juan Pierre. The idea here is to swap Pierre's contract (two years, $18.5 million) for a high-priced pitcher in a swap of inflated contracts, using that money to pay for a position in need rather than for a fourth outfielder. Options here include:

		2009		2010 Projected
Pitcher	2010 Age	ERA	FIP	ERA	FIP	Contract remaining
Bronson Arroyo	33	3.84	4.78	4.11	4.49	2010: $11m; 2011: $11m option ($2m buyout)
Aaron Harang	32	4.21	4.14	4.18	4.14	2010: $12.5m; 2011: $12.75m option ($2m buyout)
Paul Maholm	28	4.44	3.83	4.29	4.20	2 years, $11m total, plus $9.75m option for 2012
Nate Robertson	32	5.44	4.55	4.89	4.67	2010: $10m
Jeremy Bonderman	27	only 10 IP		4.43	4.22	2010: $12.5m
2010 Projections from Bill James Handbook					Contract info courtesy of the amazing Cot's

I would have thought Kevin Millwood was another trade option (due $12 million in 2010), but he was traded to the Orioles earlier Wednesday. Maholm may be a pipe dream, as his contract isn't all that onerous, but the Pirates seem interested in Pierre, so maybe there is a fit.

Matching up Pierre with a team directly might be tough, so a three-team trade may be the way to go. In fact, Pierre may be traded to fill a different hole, second base. Steve Henson of Yahoo Sports tweeted this on Wednesday night:

Dodgers are more concerned about 2B than letting on publicly, but 3-way trade tries at offing Pierre while filling 2B aren't working yet.

This is interesting, because in the report by Gurnick, Colletti showed a faith in Blake DeWitt manning the second base next season:

At second base, he's sounding more and more comfortable with DeWitt, although he still hopes to add a veteran from a group of free agents that includes Ronnie Belliard, Craig Counsell, Juan Uribe, Jamey Carroll and Felipe Lopez.

"Barring something not on the radar, it will be Blake DeWitt plus a veteran if we started the season today," Colletti said

Whether or not any budget constraints forced this philosophy, Colletti appears to have a faith in the Dodgers' young talent to play a big role in 2010. If you ask me, I think the Dodgers bring back one of Garland or Padilla, and bring back Belliard to caddy for the Blakes -- DeWitt at second and Casey at third. Which means the 2010 Dodgers will look a lot like the 2009 Dodgers in many ways, and the returning cast will have to step up.

Diamond Leung reported that Colletti expressed that same sentiment while showing faith in Chad Billingsley in an interview with Sirius XM:

"Sometimes, you have to make your guys better. You just can’t continue to expect to fill everything from the outside and continue to sign free agents and continue to trade away players. You end up in the same spot more times than not and most of the time worse off than before you started making moves…

The 2010 Dodgers need their guys to be better if they want to stay atop the NL West.

Sunday Morning Breakfast & Baseball: Mauer, Hardy, Uniforms, Vikings

Jesse — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 15:52:41 -0000

Top o' the mornin' to ya...

Here's a Q&A with Joe Mauer over at the Strib online. There are some good quotes, all about his game and his rewards and no contract talk, but if you've read the Twins coverage at the Star Tribune at all this week then you've probably already seen most of this.
The boys over at FOX Sports say that the Brewers only went with the Twins after the Pirates tried to pull in J.J. Hardy with Matt Capps or Ryan Doumit. Apparently Milwaukee was looking for either Paul Maholm or Zack Duke.
This has already been talked about here, and there's been a lot of good discussion--the Twins will unveil new-look road uni's (along with "subtle" changes to the home threads) on Monday afternoon.
Be sure to check out Han Joelo's gem.
After a week to get healthy the Vikings are back in action this afternoon. It looks like Antoine Winfield will take another week, but hopefully the Lions won't give the Vikings too much trouble and they won't miss him for one more game. Be sure to head over to Daily Norseman for all your Vikings needs.

October Baseball Comes To Chicago: Cubs vs. Pirates Preview, Thursday 10/1, 7:05 CT

Al — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 22:00:21 -0000

More photos » by Paul Beaty - AP

Write your own caption. (No contest today, just for fun.)

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Not the kind of October baseball we wanted, of course, but here it is October and the Cubs are still playing baseball. As I said yesterday, enjoy it while it's here... because you know you'll miss it over the winter.

Bruce Miles has the story behind the "With Reed We Will Succeed" T-shirt that Ted Lilly wore during the post-game 1 press conference yesterday:

"The story behind the shirt is I was given that shirt from one of the flight attendants," Reed said. "I guess one of their family members...they live in the suburbs and have a Reed Johnson fan club or whatever. They gave me that shirt. I didn’t have enough guts to put it on myself or even give it to one of my family members. Ted wears anything, so I just gave it to Ted."

Johnson said he’d love to come back next year.

"Oh, yeah, for sure," he said. "It’s a great organization. It’s the best two years of my career (that) have been spent here. Hopefully, I continue to be successful here."

I'd like Reed back too -- his only trouble has been staying healthy, and the foot injury this year was unfortunate, since his back was giving him fewer problems this year than last. He sounds like he'd take a little less money to stay than to go to free agency. To coin a phrase, "GETITDONEJIM!!!!1!!!1"

Speaking of upcoming Cub free agents, Kevin Gregg says he wants to stay and close in 2010. Response from me: no thanks.

Today's Starting Pitchers


Jeff Samardzija Cubs	vs.	Paul Maholm Pirates

1-3	W-L	8-9
7.53	ERA	4.44
21	SO	119
15	BB	60
7	HR	14
vs. Pit	--	vs. Cubs

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jeff Samardzija	1-3	20	2	0	0	0	0	34.2	46	29	29	7	15	21	7.53	1.76

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Paul Maholm	8-9	31	31	0	0	0	0	194.2	221	102	96	14	60	119	4.44	1.44

The Cubs beat Paul Maholm pretty good at Wrigley Field on May 25. (Goofy-looking lineup that day, too.) Both So Taguchi (7-for-17) and Reed Johnson (5-for-9) have hit Maholm well in the past. Lifetime against the Cubs he has a 7.06 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in nine career starts spanning 51 innings, but somehow has managed to post a 4-1 won-lost record.

Jeff Samardzija has four career relief appearances vs. the Pirates without allowing a run; this will be his first start against them. Current Pirates have ten AB vs. Jeff (three hits). This is an important appearance for the Shark to set a good tone for his possible inclusion in the mix for the 2010 rotation (or bullpen).

Today's game is again cable-only; CSN Chicago. There is no Pittsburgh TV, so you'll see Len & Bob on EI. For other games today see the MLB.com Mediacenter.

MLB.com Gameday

Baseball-reference.com game preview

SB Nation game preview

Please visit our SB Nation Pirates site Bucs Dugout.

Overflow comment threads will post again today at 8:15 and 9:15 pm CDT, although last night's were pretty sparsely attended.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

Torre On The Verge Of Entering Select Company

Eric Stephen — Sat, 26 Sep 2009 16:00:32 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

Joe Torre is close to clinching his 14th straight playoff berth.

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The Dodgers went through loads of extra security upon arrival into Pittsburgh yesterday, with the G-20 Summit in town the same time as the Dodgers. Perhaps their offense didn't make it past the Secret Service in time for the game. No matter, because the scales are still heavily tipped in favor of the Dodgers in terms of making the playoffs and winning the division.

The Dodgers will make the playoff with one more win, or one more loss by the Braves. That could come as soon as this morning, as the Braves are set to play the Nationals at 10am.

Once the Dodgers clinch a playoff berth, it will be Joe Torre's 14th consecutive playoff appearance, tying the record set by Bobby Cox four seasons ago. Here is a look at the two playoff runs of these two legendary managers:

Joe Torre	Manager	Bobby Cox
1996-2009	Years	1991-2005*
14	Playoff Appearances	14
12	Division Titles	14
2	Wild Card Berths	0
.598	Winning %	.606
6	Pennants	5
4	World Titles	1
2 (1996 & 1999)	Head-to-Head Wins	0
*The 1994 strike season is counted in Cox's win%

Randy Wolf has made 11 starts against the Pirates in his career, and his teams have won 10 of those games. Wolf himself is 7-1 with a 3.44 ERA and an estimated 2.95 FIP in his career against the Pirates.

Rafael Furcal got a single last night in the eighth inning to extend his hitting streak to nine games. He has reached base in 18 consecutive games, and is hitting .368/.442/.592 over that time.

Paul Maholm is 2-2 in his last six starts with a 2.72 ERA, and has pitched at least six innings in nine of his last 10 starts. Why, that's almost as good a run as Wolf, who has pitched six innings for 16 straight starts.

**********

Team	W-L	GB
Dodgers	92-62	---
Rockies	87-67	5
Braves	83-70	8½

Today's scoreboard watching

10:05 am
Braves (Tommy Hanson: 10-4, 3.66 FIP) at Nationals (Garrett Mock: 3-9, 4.17 FIP)
Gameday

The Dodgers can clinch a playoff spot today with a win OR a loss by Atlanta

5:10 pm
Cardinals (Adam Wainwright: 18-8, 3.23 FIP) at Rockies (Ubaldo Jimenez: 14-11, 3.35 FIP)

Now that is a pitching matchup! The Dodgers' magic number to clinch the NL West is three.

**********

Check out Xeifrank's simulation of today's game here.

Don't forget to RSVP for True Blue LA Day at Dodger Stadium, on the next-to-last day of the regular season, October 3 against the Rockies. There are five tickets left.

Get your guesses in for our today's "One, Two, Three Strikes, You're Out," here.

Game Time: 4:05pm

TV: Prime Ticket

Baseball Reference Preview

Unearned Runs Equal Unearned Playoff Spot For Dodgers

Eric Stephen — Sat, 26 Sep 2009 03:02:06 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

Blake DeWitt's wild throw led to the first of three unearned runs on the night for Pittsburgh.

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Three unearned runs by the Pirates, plus a dormant night from the Dodger offense put the playoff plans on hold for at least another day, as the Dodgers lost to the Pirates 3-1 at PNC Park.

Two potential double play grounders were botched by the Dodgers, leading to all the Pittsburgh runs. In the first inning, a grounder to Blake DeWitt may or may not have been a double play (the ball was hit slowly), but it didn't matter as DeWitt threw the ball into right field, turning a potential bases empty, two out situation into a first-and-third, nobody out rally. A sacrifice fly brought home the first unearned run.

After a pair of doubles by Blake DeWitt and Orlando Hudson tied the game in the second, the Dodger defense made another key miscue in the third inning. With one out and runners on first and second, catcher Ryan Doumit grounded to James Loney for a potential 3-6-3 double play. However, Loney was anxious, putting his hand in his glove before fielding the ball, botching the play and hurting his thumb in the process, although he stayed in the game. Instead of the inning being over, a two-out single by Brandon Moss plated unearned runs two and three for the Pirates.

After that, the Dodgers never had much of a rally the rest of the game. The only time they had more than one runner on base in an inning was the fourth, but Matt Kemp was picked off before Blake DeWitt doubled, negating that scoring opportunity. Manny Ramirez came to the plate as the tying run in the eighth, but he grounded sharply to second base for an inning-ending double play.

For the second straight game, every run given up by Jon Garland was unearned. He last gave up an earned run on September 14, and has a current streak of 15 straight innings without allowing an earned run.

The Braves and Rockies both won, so the best the Dodgers can do tomorrow is clinch a playoff spot. The earliest they can clinch the NL West is Sunday.

Magic Numbers
To win NL West: 3 (Rockies beat the Cardinals 2-1)
To clinch a playoff spot: 1 (over the Braves, who beat the Nationals 4-1)

Randy Wolf faces off with Paul Maholm tomorrow night.

WP - Donald Veal (2-0): 2 IP, 2 hits, 3 strikeouts

LP - Jon Garland (11-12): 6 IP, 6 hits, 3 unearned runs, 1 walk, 6 strikeouts

Sv - Matt Capps (26): 1 IP, 2 strikeouts

Box Score

Could the Pirates Lose 110 Games in 2010?

Charlie — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 21:50:23 -0000

More photos » by Alan Diaz - AP

A thought experiment: Brandon Moss may be bad, but if he starts the season hitting .100, is he really a .100 hitter?

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That this post even needs to be written speaks volumes about where the Pirates are right now. But despite the Bucs' spectacular collapse since the trades, I think it's far too early to worry, as many of you have, about losing 110 games next year. It's true that the Pirates' play over the last month would put them on pace for far worse than a 110-loss season. But that doesn't mean a 110-loss season will actually happen. A 110-loss team would be among the worst teams in modern baseball history. In the last 40 years, only two teams, the 2003 Tigers and the 2004 Diamondbacks, have lost as many as 110 games in a season, which means that if the Pirates lost 110, they would have to be considered one of the worst teams in modern baseball history. I think there is plenty of evidence that shows that they are bad. I don't think there is nearly enough to show that they are historically bad.

The irony here is that, way back in 2007, I myself was pointing out that the 2010 Pirates were going to be spectacularly bad. I even suggested what some of you are now saying--that they could lose 110 games. Most of the core players on that 2007 team--Jason Bay, Adam LaRoche, Freddy Sanchez, Jose Castillo, Xavier Nady, Salomon Torres--were scheduled to become free agents after 2009, and Jack Wilson had an expensive 2010 option. In addition, they had one of the worst general managers in the history of baseball at the helm and next to nothing in the farm system. That the Bucs would be quite awful in 2010 has been obvious for a long time now, and frankly Neal Huntington bears very little responsibility for it. In 2007, it looked like a perfect storm of a terrible big-league team, no prospects and inept management was brewing, and I think it was maybe only a little hyperbolic to write that a 110-loss campaign in 2010 was likely.

The reason I don't think it's likely now is that Huntington has taken enough steps to improve the 2010 situation that I think we can remove "historically bad" from the set of likely possibilities for now.

I realize that's a counterintuitive conclusion, since clearly Huntington's eyes are set at a point well beyond 2010 and the Bucs aren't playing very well right now. But without Huntington there would be no Ross Ohlendorf or Daniel McCutchen, who were acquired in the Nady deal. There would be no Charlie Morton, since the Pirates under Littlefield would not allow Nate McLouth to start and therefore to acquire value on the trade market. It's quite possible Littlefield would have started Nyjer Morgan in 2009, but back in mid-2007 his breakout would have been extremely hard to foresee (since Morgan hadn't even made his major league debut at that point), and trading him for Lastings Milledge and Joel Hanrahan would have been even harder to foresee. Without Huntington the Pirates probably still would have had Ian Snell, but they wouldn't have Ronny Cedeno or Jeff Clement. Those guys--Ohlendorf, Morton, Milledge, Hanrahan, Cedeno, Clement--are all major league players. Maybe not great ones, in some cases, but certainly useful ones, and one characteristic of 110-loss teams is that they have very few useful players.

Also, a number of decent prospects--Pedro Alvarez, Jose Tabata, Brad Lincoln, Chase D'Arnaud, Rudy Owens, Ron Uviedo, Jeff Locke, Tim Alderson--will be either in the high minors or on the verge of arriving there. That may sound like a trivial point, but actually it isn't. 110-loss seasons can be avoided simply by having a storehouse of players who might be able to fill in competently.

Now, maybe Littlefield would have traded Bay and some of the other core players, too. I doubted that at the time, though, because doing so would have meant admitting that he basically had nothing after five or six years on the job, and because he was basically acting like 2010 did not exist, as if the Pirates would be contracted before the season started. That was my reason for thinking 110 losses was possible then. Now it appears that Huntington is at least aware that the Pirates will be playing baseball next season. That might not mean much, but it's something.

The most critical point here, though, is that losing 110 games is spectacularly difficult to do. It requires either extreme negligence or a combination of negligence and bad luck. Merely being a very poor team, which I agree the Pirates probably will be, simply does not get the job done. Let's take the two teams that lost 110, for example.

The 2004 Diamondbacks reached 110 losses through both negligence and luck. Not only did they have the worst offense in the league--an outcome that is surely also a possibility for the 2010 Pirates--but they really had no starting rotation after Randy Johnson (who was brilliant) and Brandon Webb. The five pitchers who had the most starts for them were Casey Fossum, Steve Sparks, Casey Daigle, Edgar Gonzalez, and Lance Cormier, and all of those guys had ERAs over six. Arizona finished 27th in the majors in ERA, and one of the three teams that fared worse was the Rockies. And the Diamondbacks still only got to 110 through bad luck--their Pythagorean record was "only" 54-108.

The 2010 Bucs really don't even belong in the same conversation with the '03 Tigers, who lost 119 games. The Tigers only had one pitcher throw more than 20 innings with an ERA below 4.50; the '09 Pirates, by comparison, have seven pitchers currently in their organization who have done that this year. The Tigers basically had one good hitter (Dmitri Young), and the lower part of their lineup and their bench were filled with guys (Brandon Inge, Warren Morris, Ramon Santiago, Shane Halter, Gene Kingsale, Omar Infante, Matt Walbeck, Andres Torres) who just didn't belong in the majors. It wasn't a case of a team merely being bad; it was a case of a team simply not taking the steps necessary to ensure that there was a real team on the field.

When I say that the Pirates are unlikely to lose 110 games next year, I'm not paying the Pirates a compliment. I'm just saying these 110-loss prognostications are the result of either over-the-top despair about the Bucs' recent play, or a misunderstanding about how incredibly hard it actually is to lose 110.

Another possibility is that people think you can extrapolate the Bucs' play the last couple months over the course of an entire season. You can't. By way of example, let's look at Brandon Moss. Let's say he's the Bucs' fourth outfielder next year and he starts the season 6-for-60, for a batting average of .100.

Now, we would be perfectly justified to say that Moss is terrible. We already would have been thinking that Moss is pretty terrible, given the way he hit in 2009. And then he went and started 2010 6-for-60. Ugh! Terrible.

But would be justified to say that he will continue to bat .100? Well, no. True, he already batted .100 in his first 60 at bats, but hitting .100 over the long haul is especially hard to do. First of all, we have to consider that Brandon Moss has, at various points, done things that suggest he can be much better than a .100 hitter. For example, in 2009 he's batting .241. Not very good, but way better than .100. Also, he made his way through the minors and got all the way to the big leagues, even briefly joining a good team, the Boston Red Sox. He has some skill, and players with some skill can usually hit better than .100. Even Mario Mendoza hit .215 for his career.

So we'd be justified to be annoyed at Moss' poor start. We'd also be justified to factor that poor start into our guesses about what he might do going forward. But it wouldn't make much sense to predict he'll be a .100 hitter.

Guessing the 2010 Bucs will lose 110 games is like that. Yes, they've been extremely bad since the trades. But they have three downright functional starting pitchers in Ohlendorf, Zach Duke and Paul Maholm, plus Morton, who easily could make his way into that category next year. They have Andrew McCutchen, who's a plain old good player. They have Garrett Jones who, while due for some serious regression next year, has probably staked a pretty reasonable claim that he's at least going to be useful. They have Ryan Doumit, who in 2008 was a force as an offensively-minded catcher. They have Milledge and Hanrahan, who have shown promise since arriving. They have guys like Ronny Cedeno, Andy LaRoche and Jason Jaramillo who, while they're not exactly inspiring, have shown they at least belong in the majors. There's also at least a reasonable chance that Pedro Alvarez is going to burst onto the scene at some point next season and go nuts.

I'm not saying that's much. It isn't. I'm saying it doesn't take much to avoid 110 losses, and that while anything's possible, I think the Pirates have what it takes. Don't take that as wild-eyed optimism, because again, it isn't. I'm only saying that I think the Pirates can avoid a complete disaster season, and the fact that they've actually been a disaster since the trades doesn't really change that.

If you're going to stake your rep on being a fifth place team, these are the games you HAVE to win. Reds sweep double header, win 6-3.

Brendanukkah — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 03:18:02 -0000

More photos » by David Kohl - AP

He still thinks the C on his hat is for "Cueto." (AP Photo/David Kohl)

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Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Brandon Phillips. Phillips went 3-4 with two runs, two RBI, a home run and a stolen base. He hit what seemed to be a second home run, but replays showed that it was a foul ball.

Key Plays

The Reds came flying out of the gate in the evening contest, with Drew Stubbs singling and Paul Janish bringing him home with a double. One out later, Brandon Phillips scored Janish with a single. Scott Rolen singled and Jonny Gomes hit a ground rule double to plate Phillips. After Darnell McDonald struck out, Corky Miller walked to load the bases. Sadly, Johnny Cueto struck out, but the Reds had a 3-0 lead.
Phillips made it a four run lead in the third inning with his 18th home run of the season.
Cueto, fresh off the DL, cruised until the sixth inning when he gave up a home run to Andrew McCutchen. Danny Ray Herrera came in to relieve, but after getting two quick outs he gave up a single to Ryan Doumit, a double to Steve Pearce, and singles to Brandon Moss and Ronny Cedeno. The Pirates had crept to within one run, and Nick Masset was called on to get the third out of the inning.
The Reds got some Great American Insurance runs in the eighth, when Darnell McDonald hit a ground rule double and Drew Stubbs hit his second home run of the day (but first of the game) to increase the lead to 6-3.

via FanGraphs

Other Notes

This was Johnny Cueto's first win since July 1. It's his ninth of the season, which matches his total from last year.
The announced attendance of 13,051 for the day game was actually the attendance number from April 10, the rained out game. The Reds had an attendance of 9,087 for the nightcap, the lowest attendance ever at GABP.
The Reds had not swept a double header in ten years. (Actually, the last time I'm seeing such a sweep occurred on May 26, 1997. John Smiley beat Al Leiter [BOO!], and Mike Morgan beat Matt Beech. Terry Pendleton played third base. I'd totally forgotten he'd ever been a Red.)
With nine more losses, the Reds will clinch a losing season for the ninth straight year.
Nick Masset and Arthur Rhodes pitched in both games for the Reds. Jesse Chavez pitched in both games for the Pirates.
Francisco Cordero earned his 29th save. He's five away from passing Dan Quisenberry on the all-time list.

Final - 8.31.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Pittsburgh Pirates	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	3	8	0
Cincinnati Reds	3	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	X	6	13	0
WP: Johnny Cueto (9 - 10) SV: Francisco Cordero (29) LP: Paul Maholm (7 - 8)

Complete Coverage >

Fantasy Baseball: What Pitching Stat Leads To Fantasy Success?

raygu — Sun, 30 Aug 2009 14:00:10 -0000

More photos » by Amy Sancetta - AP

6 months ago: St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Joel Piniero makes a pickoff throw to first base trying to catch Cleveland Indians' Jamey Carroll off the bag, but is unsuccessful, during fifth-inning baseball game action in Cleveland on Friday, June 12, 2009. (AP Photo/Amy Sancetta)

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I have spent some time looking at what pitching statistics lead to a pitchers success on the mound. Everyone looks at command, or K/BB (or K/9-BB/9), or the pitchers groundball to flyball ratio, but how about keeping the ball in the yard, or HR/9.

Here is a list of NL starting pitchers sorted by pitchers who give up the least amount of HRs per 9 innings in 2009:

Player	INN	W	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	G/AO	HRA	HR/9
Pineiro, Joel SP STL	170.7	13	3.11	1.1	4.43	0.95	2.3	6	0.316
Kershaw, Clayton SP LA	146	8	2.96	1.27	9.43	4.99	0.8	6	0.370
Lincecum, Tim SP SF	193.3	13	2.33	1.03	10.33	2.51	1.1	8	0.372
Carpenter, Chris SP STL	151.7	14	2.2	0.97	6.82	1.48	1.7	7	0.415
Lowe, Derek SP ATL	158.7	12	4.48	1.46	4.65	2.84	2	8	0.454
Lee, Cliff SP PHI	192	12	2.62	1.19	6.84	1.83	0.9	10	0.469
Jimenez, Ubaldo SP COL	181.3	12	3.33	1.22	7.84	3.42	1.6	10	0.496
Marquis, Jason SP COL	171.3	14	3.47	1.27	4.41	2.84	1.9	11	0.578
Pelfrey, Mike SP NYM	146.3	9	4.8	1.52	5.17	3.38	1.5	10	0.615
Johnson, Josh SP FLA	171.7	13	3.04	1.11	7.81	2.15	1.4	12	0.629
Zambrano, Carlos SP CHC	128	7	3.8	1.38	7.38	4.22	1.1	9	0.633
Billingsley, Chad SP LA	166.7	12	3.83	1.29	8.1	3.83	1.1	12	0.648
Jurrjens, Jair SP ATL	164	10	2.91	1.26	6.59	3.24	1	12	0.659
Maholm, Paul SP PIT	162.7	7	4.59	1.43	5.64	2.66	1.5	13	0.719
Wainwright, Adam SP STL	187	15	2.5	1.21	7.56	2.6	1.4	15	0.722
Wells, Randy RP CHC	126.7	9	3.06	1.22	5.54	2.34	1.2	11	0.781
Correia, Kevin SP SD	156	9	4.5	1.38	6.29	3.29	1.2	14	0.808
Hammel, Jason SP COL	132	8	4.43	1.5	6.2	2.25	1.3	12	0.818
Cain, Matt SP SF	177.3	12	2.39	1.15	6.75	3.1	0.8	17	0.863
Vazquez, Javier SP ATL	176	11	3.02	1.05	9.82	1.79	1.1	17	0.869

A couple things really stand out when analyzing this chart. One, there is only one Mets pitcher and one Padres pitcher on this list. Why Mets and Padres? Because they pitch in the two best pitchers parks in the majors and only one pitcher from each team, Mike Pelfrey and Kevin Correia appear on this list.

The other thing that really stood out was that there are three Colorado Rockies pitchers on this list: Ubaldo Jimenez, Jason Marquis and Jason Hammel. Is Coors Field turning into a pitchers park? The Cardinals and Braves also have three pitchers appear on this list including the leader Joel Piniero. It is no coincidence that Piniero also induces the highest number of ground ball outs in the NL.

Taking a closer look at this list, if you take out Kevin Correia, Jason Hammel, Derek Lowe, Paul Maholm and Mike Pelfrey from this list, you are left with a list of very solid fantasy pitchers in 2009.

Does this list displace the myth that strikeout pitchers lead to fantasy success?

Poll

Is HR/9 a better stat than K/9 for fantasy succcess?

No, K/BB or GO/FO ratio are more reliable.

31 votes

Yes, keeping the ball in the yard is a derivative of K/9 and GO/FO ratio.

12 votes

43 votes | Poll has closed

Who ARE These Guys? - Cubs vs. Pirates Preview, Friday 8/14, 1:20 CT

Al — Fri, 14 Aug 2009 16:00:11 -0000

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Write your own caption.

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A little over a year ago -- on July 24, 2008, just before last year's trading deadline -- the Pittsburgh Pirates began a trading spree that I think is nearly unprecedented in recent baseball history.

Today, August 14, 2009, as the Pirates come to Wrigley Field for a three-game series, know how many players are left from the 25-man roster on 7/24/2008?

Three. Ryan Doumit, Paul Maholm and Zach Duke. (Four, if you count Matt Capps, who was on the DL on 7/24/2008). All the rest are gone. Some of the players they have acquired or promoted are decent players; Andrew McCutchen is a real talent. Lastings Milledge has some talent, if he could ever actually put a full season together. Some of the pitchers have good arms. But basically, it's a Triple-A visiting team coming to Wrigley Field this weekend. The Cubs took two of three in two series earlier this year from the Pirates, one at Wrigley and one at PNC; this time, they both need to sweep, and should sweep. Aramis Ramirez returns today; that should help.

Courtesy of John Lewis' research on a SABR mailing list to which I subscribe, here's where the departed Pirates went:

LF Jason Bay              traded to Red Sox 2008
CF Nate McLouth           traded to Braves 2009
RF Xavier Nady            traded to Yankees 2008
OF Jason Michaels         free agency 2008
1B Adam LaRoche           traded to Red Sox 2009
2B Freddy Sanchez         traded to Giants 2009
3B Jose Bautista          traded to Blue Jays 2008
SS Jack Wilson            traded to Mariners 2009
1B-3B Doug Mientkiewicz   free agency 2008
2B-SS Luis Rivas          free agency 2008
INF Chris Gomez           free agency 2008
C  Raul Chavez            free agency 2008
P John Van Benschoten     free agency 2008
P Franquelis Osoria       free agency 2008
P Damaso Marte            traded to Yankees 2008
P John Grabow             traded to Cubs 2009
P Sean Burnett            traded to Nationals 2009
P Ian Snell               traded to Mariners 2009
P T.J. Beam               on waivers to Blue Jays 2009
P Denny Bautista          to AAA Indianapolis
P Yoslan Herrera          to AA Altoona
P Tyler Yates             on disabled list

Lewis also notes that:

The Pirates' record was 48-54 (.471) on July 24, 2008. Since then, it is 64-103 (.383).

Today's Starting Pitchers


Randy Wells Cubs	vs.	Charlie Morton Pirates

8-5	W-L	2-5
3.01	ERA	3.81
68	SO	33
25	BB	18
9	HR	4
vs. Pit	--	vs. Cubs

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Randy Wells	8-5	17	17	0	0	0	0	107.2	102	39	36	9	25	68	3.01	1.18

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Charlie Morton	2-5	10	10	0	0	0	0	49.2	53	21	21	4	18	33	3.81	1.43

Charlie Morton will be making his second career start against the Cubs. He started a game for the Braves against the Cubs a year and a day ago on August 13, 2008. He didn't make it out of the third inning. The big blow off him was a home run by Jim Edmonds -- remember him? Geovany Soto hit a two-run double off Morton.

Randy Wells started and defeated the Pirates on July 1 in Pittsburgh, but the Pirates have remade their team since then. Three of the starting eight that day aren't on the Pirates any more.

The Cubs are on WGN today -- that's the only TV; there is no Pirates telecast. For other games today see the MLB.com Mediacenter.

MLB.com Gameday

Baseball-reference.com game preview

SB Nation game preview

Please visit our SB Nation Pirates site Bucs Dugout.

Overflow comment threads will post today at 2:15 pm, 3:15 pm and 4 pm CDT.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

Rockies continue dominance over NL Central, beat Pirates 10-1

Rox Girl — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 23:10:03 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

4 months ago: Colorado Rockies' Troy Tulowitzki, left is congratulated by the bat boy after hitting a solo home run against the Pittsburgh Pirates in the first inning of a baseball game in Denver on Thursday, Aug. 13, 2009. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

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Let's just take a look at some of the numbers today: 7 for 9 with runners in scoring position. Eight extra base hits (including three doubles by lead-off hitter Dexter Fowler and home runs by Troy Tulowitzki and Clint Barmes) and fifteen hits overall, the Rockie just put an old fashioned Coors Field beat down on Pirates starter Paul Maholm, and lit up Matt Capps for good measure. Keep in mind that these are supposed to be the Pirates good pitchers.

Meanwhile, Rockies starter Jason Marquis wasn't always pretty, but thanks to some quality defensive work (particularly in left field by Carlos Gonzalez) he was effective and got through seven innings allowing just the one run to pick up his thirteenth win. The team improves to 64-51 overall, just five games behind the Dodgers for first place in the NL West. The Rockies have gained four games on Los Angeles in the last three weeks after being nine back on July 24th.

While they haven't been perfect while at Coors, make no mistake that the Rockies are getting on a serious roll. The Rockies went 5-2 over the seven game homestand, outscoring the Cubs and Pirates by a combined score of 54-26. A win is a win, but when teams that aren't really playing each other that often are nonetheless competing for the same playoff spots, blowout wins like today's for the Rockies help show that the team is more likely to continue winning in the future.

The team's 23-12 record in games decided by six runs or more is a big reason that Baseball Prospectus' playoff odds are generally a couple percentage points more favorable to the Rockies compared to other sites that just consider the win percentage and the remaining schedule. At the same time, it's why the Braves are considered such a dangerous threat coming up on our tail. The good news with that situation is that the Rockies are in a position since the Braves are playing the Phillies this weekend,

via www.fangraphs.com

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