SB Nation - Cliff Lee

MLB Trade Rumors: Roy Halladay to the Phillies for Michael Taylor and Kyle Drabek??

raygu — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 14:00:31 -0000

More photos » by NATHAN DENETTE - AP

6 months ago: Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Roy Halladay reacts after defeating the Los Angeles Angels 6-4 during the ninth inning of a baseball game in Toronto, Canada, Tuesday, June 2, 2009. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Nathan Denette)

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It has been very quiet Winter Meetings if you are looking for rumors involving Roy Halladay. Toronto GM Alex Anthopolous is keeping things close to the vest and not allowing trade talks to leak out to the likes of Jon Heyman, Buster Olney and Ken Rosenthal. It appears he wants to manage and drive the price up for Roy Halladay himself, rather than through the media.

But yesterday, Buster Olney posted this in his morning blog post that I was thinking about once I heard the Phillies were shopping Joe Blanton:

Our colleague Jayson Stark reported that the Phillies are taking offers for Joe Blanton, which makes you wonder if they are quietly trying to clear salary space for a possible run at Roy Halladay.

It would not suprise me to see the Phillies make an effort to deal for Roy Halladay. I can't imagine a rotation of Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels-three aces on one staff would be hard to beat.

Would a package involving outfield prospect Michael Taylor and pitching prospect Kyle Drabek be enough to get Halladay? But the only way the Phillies make this deal is if they clear some payroll and deal Joe Blanton, otherwise their payroll hits $150 million in 2010. But if you deal Blanton, who is their 5th starter? I assume they could search the bargain bin in free agency.

Poll

Who leaves the suite first on the proposed Roy Halladay for Michael Taylor and Kyle Drabek deal?

The State of the Rockies: Pre-Winter Meetings Edition

Jabberwocky — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 00:45:02 -0000

Yes, Rockies fans, it's that time that you've all been waiting for: Hot Stove Season. Now that arbitration offers have been made from clubs to some of their free agents, it's time for the free agency period to begin in earnest--or at least it will when those who have been offered arbitration decide to accept or decline it (the deadline for that is December 7th). Then at the Winter Meetings in Indianapolis (the 7th through the 10th) GMs will have a pretty good idea of where the free agent market stands and what their teams' needs are.

Given the way the chips have fallen so far, it's looking increasingly like the Rockies won't make any moves of great consequence at the Meetings, though the possibility of a big trade looms insidiously just under the surface as the Rockies look to shape their roster and payroll for the 2010 season.

In this belated edition of Purple Row Academy I will do my best to break down how the upcoming Winter Meetings and the Rule 5 draft will affect the Rockies. In addition, I'll offer up some analysis on the Rockies' arbitration offers to Jason Marquis and Rafael Betancourt plus a look at some free agents the Rockies have targeted (an expanded target list for the Rockies from the last edition).

Winter Meetings

Running from next Monday through Thursday, the Winter Meetings are a hot stove afficionado's dream--where trade buzz runs fast and furious while agents make their best pitch to GMs about their clients. A lot of deals will get talked about, but likely very few will be consummated.

As you'll see below, the Rockies don't really have a lot of flexibility with either roster slots or payroll, so they will likely be on the reactive, listening side of the trade proposals and free agent players rather than being proactive about it. One eventuality that could and should be pursued by Dan O'Dowd is the potential trade of Brad Hawpe.

O'Dowd has downplayed the possibility of such a move, but that's what he needs to be saying at this juncture to maintain the strength of Hawpe's trade market. Were he on the open market, Hawpe would probably be graded as a high second-tier corner outfielder/DH option, a man that would command higher than a $7.5 million salary for 2010.

I've written about it in detail before, but Hawpe is the rare trade asset whose value to another team (particularly in the AL) is MUCH greater than it is to the outfielder-rich, lefty-saturated Rockies PLUS the opportunity cost (giving Smith/Fowler/Gonzalez more plate appearances and $7.5 million of payroll flexibility) happens to be a better alternative than simply keeping Hawpe.

While the Rockies are looking to contend in 2010 and therefore might be more likely to have a more aggressive outlook on short-term payroll, this move would likely pay off now and in the future for Colorado--even if all the Rockies receive in return are prospects (though I believe the return would include a MLB-ready young back-end starter). After all, the Rockies have Matt Murton in reserve or they could use Eric Young Jr. in the outfield.

Beyond a potential Hawpe deal though, I don't see the Rockies making too many waves next week.

Rule 5 Draft

That includes the Rule 5 draft, to be held next Tuesday the 8th. Teams can select players from other MLB organizations' minor league systems that have not been protected on the 40 man roster. For a $50,000 fee, if a team selects a player he becomes their asset, so long as he remains on that team's 25 man roster or DL all year, after which time the player may be sent down.

Looking over the players that are eligible for the draft, the only one that is of interest to me is one pointed out by Keith Law, Angels prospect Bobby Cassevah. He has average fastball velocity but has extreme groundball tendencies (70%), an ability that is valuable at Coors Field--particularly out of the bullpen. I don't see it happening though, because while the Rockies have two spots open on their 40 man roster currently, I don't foresee a 25 man roster spot being open.

As for whom the Rockies could lose, OF Cole Garner and RHP Craig Baker have been mentioned as possibilities. That's the downside of having a deep system like the Rockies do--they lose prospects to the Rule 5 Draft (David Patton and Everth Cabrera last year) because they have too many to protect.

Arbitration Offers

One offer I like and one I'm not such a big fan of but can live with--about par for the course, I guess.

Jason Marquis

Given the high demand and low supply of even second-tier starting pitching, there is a very low chance that Jason Marquis will accept arbitration from the Rockies--pencil me down for 3 years, $25-30 million from the Mets (pencil them into the playoffs the next three years).

Marquis could decide to remain a Rockie, and in doing so garner a 2010 salary of $10-11 million or so, but my guess is that he'll take the security of a longer contract with a similar amount of guaranteed money per year. It's a good time to be a free agent for Marquis, despite the economic situation--teams want solid starting pitching and supply is very low. Accepting arbitration and risking a down year would not only hurt Marquis' bargaining power next year, but also there's a stronger pitching free agent class in 2010 (headlined by Roy Halladay, Josh Beckett, Cliff Lee, and Brandon Webb), so getting a long-term deal just makes good business sense for Marquis.

Rafael Betancourt

It's a different market and different situation for Betancourt. For one thing, he's older (35 on Opening Day) and he's a right-handed reliever, a market with considerably more supply and less demand.

There's no denying that Betancourt was a great performer that solidified the back end of the Rockies' bullpen in 2009. However, it's highly unlikely that there is a team out there that is willing to surrender a high draft choice and give Betancourt a multi-year deal--or one that at least would pay him what he would get in arbitration from the Rockies (around $6 million is what I've estimated).

At this point it would likely be a poor business decision for Betancourt to do anything but accept arbitration with the Rockies due to his Type A status and age. The Rockies want Betancourt back, but they have a Plan B in LaTroy Hawkins should Betancourt refuse arbitration.

As others in this community have opined, this offer of arbitration hedges the Rockies' risk with Betancourt. For some, the worst situation that could happen for Colorado was that Betancourt would walk and the Rockies would get nothing out of the deal. With the arbitration offer, that won't be the case--heck, Betancourt could reject arbitration, test the open market, and then sign with the Rockies for a lower cost. I don't see this happening though--I fully expect Betancourt to do the smart thing and accept arbitration.

Personally, I'm not sure that getting Betancourt back for anything over $3 million is such a great deal for the Rockies, but then again, I happen to value relief pitching at a lower level (and am extremely wary of its variability) than most people. However, if there's any year for the Rockies to pay a little extra for a few more marginal wins, it's this year. The Rockies are in contention now and should be encouraged to take steps to ensure at least a 90 win season.

Roster and Payroll 2010 Update

Projecting Betancourt at receiving a $6.4 million award (as I've outlined here) in arbitration, this is how the Rockies' 2010 roster and payroll currently looks:

Players Under Contract (Torrealba and Embree are team option buyouts)

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Add. Min. Obligation	Years After 2010
Todd Helton	12.059	$16,600,000	$23,700,000	1
Aaron Cook	7.02	$9,833,000	$10,583,000	1
Brad Hawpe	5.058	$7,500,000	$500,000	0
Jeff Francis	5.04	$5,875,000	$0	0
Troy Tulowitzki	3.033	$3,500,000	$25,750,000	3
Manuel Corpas	3.076	$2,750,000	$3,750,000	1
Ubaldo Jimenez	2.087	$1,250,000	$8,000,000	2
Yorvit Torrealba	8.03	$500,000	$0	0
Alan Embree	15.059	$250,000	$0	0
Matt Belisle	4.02	$850,000	$0	0
Randy Flores	5.061	$650,000	$0	0

Total		$49,558,000	$72,283,000

Pre-Arbitration Players (Phillips projected as back-up catcher)

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary
Eric Young Jr.	0.042	$412,000
Dexter Fowler	1.027	$413,030
Franklin Morales	2.01	$414,060
Paul Phillips	2.06	$427,450
Ian Stewart	1.154	$416,120
Carlos Gonzalez	1.06	$415,090
Seth Smith	1.119	$415,090
Matt Daley	0.155	$412,000

Total		$3,324,840

Arbitration Players (assumes Atkins non-tendered, Murton not on roster)

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Difference from 2009
Huston Street	5	$8,775,000	95.00%
Jorge De La Rosa	5.015	$5,600,000	180.00%
Clint Barmes	4.122	$4,225,000	160.00%
Taylor Buchholz	3.14	$1,055,000	0.00%
Jason Hammel	2.153	$2,026,560	380.00%
Chris Iannetta	3.029	$1,867,500	350.00%
Rafael Betancourt	6.079	$6,405,000	83%
Ryan Spilborghs	3.072	$788,500	90.00%

Total		$30,742,560	167.25%

Grand Total Payroll: $83,625,400

The 2010 payroll including Betancourt would be the largest Rockies ODP ever (up over $8 million from last year), and it isn't complete. This roster has 24 players on it (because Buchholz will begin the season on the DL, plus Torrealba and Embree will not actually be on the team) and the open slot is for a utility infielder to replace Garrett Atkins.

Now I don't believe that it's quite this simple--I think that Torrealba, McKenry, or another option could supplant Phillips at backup catcher while a player like Corpas, Daley, or EY2 could be sent down to AAA to begin the season--but barring a trade there is only one definite opening on the 2010 Rockies that will be filled on the free agent market. For that reason, I'll be concentrating on players that fit the utility infielder mold or that have been prominently mentioned as free agent targets recently.

Free Agency Update

In the last edition I provided a list of potential free agent targets for the Rockies and all of them remain available at the moment (though Jose Contreras is looking like he's headed to Japan). In particular, Jamey Carroll has drawn a lot of interest, while Pedro Feliz has found himself jobless due to Placido Polanco signing in Philly.

While Feliz would be my ideal target to fill the Rockies' utility infielder void, let's look at the free agency targets (those that plied their trade for others last year) that the Rockies have expressed interest in (pitching and hitting) from most interesting in my estimation to least:

Justin Duchscherer: The Duke represents a possible market inefficiency that the Rockies could exploit to bolster their starting pitching depth. Twice an All-Star for the Oakland A's, Duchscherer's last couple of years have been derailed due to injury (hip and elbow) and depression. However, the 32 year old righty has shown himself to be an above-average starter and reliever--and he would likely be in search of a cheaper one year deal to build up his market value. Plus, he was once traded for Luis Vizcaino (and his second best career comparison per Baseball Reference is Betancourt). Colorado could be the perfect landing spot for him at a price around $2-3 million (with incentives for more).

Orlando Hudson: O'Dowd has downplayed the Rockies' interest in Hudson, but the possibility of Hudson in the lineup every day with Barmes as a super-utility player is nonetheless intriguing. Since the Dodgers declined to offer the 32 year old Hudson arbitration, signing him costs no draft picks. I'd bet on Hudson commanding a salary around $5 million per year for anywhere from 1-3 years. Hudson has been at least league average (2 WAR or greater) every year since 2004, so this price would likely be a bargain. This is the sort of move that a Hawpe trade could enable with increased payroll flexibility, but as it is I don't see it happening because the Rockies really are attached to Barmes at second.

Bobby Crosby: To be honest, given the Rockies' lack of roster and payroll flexibility, I would much rather sign Crosby than Hudson to fill the one remaining roster slot. The 2004 AL ROY has the versatility and right-handedness to fit the Rockies' super-utility role to a T. He would come fairly cheaply considering all the hats he'd be wearing (I'd estimate in the $2-3 million range) due to the fact that he has played poorly (an understatement really) since his 2004 campaign. While his career .302 wOBA is worrisome, Crosby has positive fielding value and will be moving from a tough AL hitter's park to a permissive NL run-scoring environment--and at worst he would be a cheaper version of Garrett Atkins circa 2009. The Rockies could certainly do worse for a utilityman.

LaTroy Hawkins: Hawkins would be Betancourt's replacement, pure and simple. The 37 year old will probably perform worse than Betancourt but will also get paid less (around $3.5 million) to do it. I'd rather Betancourt just accept arbitration than to have Hawkins back, honestly--I have this vision of Hawkins as being Alan Embree 2.0 next year for whatever reason.

Noah Lowry: The 29 year old former Giant lefty has been sidelined by injuries the last two seasons, making him a huge enigma and a gamble for any team that is interested. If the Rockies can get him on a minor league deal that would be ideal, but if signing him required a major league deal it probably would be too rich for the Rockies' budget.

By next week, after the Winter Meetings, we should have a much better idea of where the Rockies stand in free agency and trades, plus a much firmer handle on how the 2010 Rockies roster will look.

MLB Trade Rumors: Phillies Shopping Shane Victorino??

raygu — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 17:30:13 -0000

More photos » by Julie Jacobson - ASSOCIATED PRESS

29 days ago: Philadelphia Phillies' Shane Victorino, right, is congratulated by Jimmy Rollins after scoring on a two run RBI single by Raul Ibanez during the eighth inning of Game 1 of the Major League Baseball World Series against the New York Yankees Wednesday, Oct. 28, 2009, in New York. (AP Photo/Julie Jacobson)

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I was trading emails with my brother and a few friends yesterday, and one of my friends who listens to alot of Philadelphia talk radio said he heard that the Phillies may be quietly shopping Shane Victorino. I was shocked to hear that one, and none of the big rumors guys have yet to throw that one out there. It will be interesting to see if the Phillies would actually mess with a lineup that went to the World Series two years in a row.

So, why would the Phillies want to deal Victorino? I think there are several reasons. One is they have Michael Taylor and Domonic Brown in AAA and AA respectively, who are probably amongst the top 20-25 prospects in the game right now. Secondly, if the Phillies are serious about signing Cliff Lee long-term, then they need to move some salary to afford Lee. Victorino is up for arbitration again this year, after making $3+ million last year. That number could double in 2010 and beyond.

Factor in that the Phillies have two more years of Raul Ibanez and the $20 million left on his contract, and Jayson Werth is a free agent at the end of the 2010 season, and the Phillies have some decisions to make with their outfielders. The contracts that Ryan Howard ($19 million in 2010), Chase Utley ($15 million in 2010), Jimmy Rollins ($7.5 million in 2010) and recently signed Placido Polanco (~$6 million in 2010), the Phillies infield is making almost $48 million in 2010. Add in what Cole Hamel, Brad Lidge, Cliff Lee, Jamey Moyer and others are making, and the Phillies may want to consider dealing some salary where they have depth in the minors.

Who could have interest in Victorino? Well, the Toronto Blue Jays would certainly be interested in him if the Phillies are serious about dealing for ace starter Roy Halladay. Other teams would include the Braves, Marlins and Mets who all need an outfielder, but I am sure the Phillies wouldn't deal Victorino within their own division. The Cardinals would jump at the chance to trade for Victorino and make him their leadoff hitter. He could play right field with Ryan Ludwick moving over to left field. A package of pitching prospects could entice the Phillies. The Cubs are also looking for a centerfielder. Victorino could also lead off for the Cubs.

Poll

Should the Phillies deal Shane Victorino to make room for Michael Taylor or Domonic Brown?

MLB Trade Rumors: Roy Halladay at What Cost?

raygu — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 20:52:44 -0000

More photos » by Elise Amendola - AP

2 months ago: Toronto Blue Jays starter Roy Halladay is hugged by catcher Rod Barajas after Halladay threw a three-hitter in Toronto's 12-0 victory over the Boston Red Sox in a baseball game at Fenway Park in Boston on Wednesday, Sept. 30, 2009. (AP Photo/Elise Amendola)

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Jeremy Sandler from the National Post has an article discussing the plans that new Toronto GM Alex Anthopolous has for building the Blue Jays through scouting and development. He also mentions the following regarding Anthopolous' demands in return for dealing ace starter Roy Halladay:

The Jays want a major league-ready arm and bat, both young and affordable enough to stay in Toronto a while, plus prospects for Halladay.

It is a high price for a player with just one year left on his contract.

But with the number of clubs lining up, the Jays may escape the damage created by not having dealt Halladay before the 2009 trade deadline.

Industry insiders suggest serious offers in the coming weeks should match Toronto's wish list.

If they are anything less, the Jays can hold on to Halladay, seeing where the offers go with the knowledge he will be worth two high draft picks next year if he signs with another club as a Type A free agent.

I will be subtle here. If Anthopolous thinks he will get both a major league ready arm and a major league ready bat, PLUS prospects for one year of Halladay and his $15 million contract, he better get his scouts working on those draft picks as soon as possible.

One year of Roy Halladay is not enough for the 4 pieces that he is asking for. It appears he is trying to get July 31, 2009 value for one year, and the shot to sign him long term, of Halladay. I just don't see it. He is asking for more than what the Indians received in return for Cliff Lee last July, it appears.

Eric Seidman from Baseball Prospectus disagrees with me, sort of. Here is his response to my question regarding the Blue Jays return for Halladay in a recent chat:

raygu1 (burlington, NJ): Will Anthropolous get more in return for Halladay than the Indians got for Lee?

Eric Seidman: I expect him to get more and from a shorter supply of players, but given what the Phillies surrendered for Lee, that's really setting the bar low.

Did Cliff Lee's performance in the playoffs and World Series increase the value of one year of Halladay?

Poll

Did Cliff Lee's performance in the playoffs and World Series increase the value of one year of Roy Halladay?

What About Depth?

Charlie — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 03:04:21 -0000

Sorry for the absence of updates the past few days; it can be hard to post when there isn't much news coming out.

Anyway, there was some interesting discussion of the BA top prospects here, and the basic take-away criticism (particularly from Mike Emeigh, a smart long-time Pirates fan and critic) is that the Pirates' farm system still isn't that strong yet. If you look only at the ten-player list BA published, I think that's true, but I don't think a list of ten players tells the whole story.

Frank Coonelly and Neal Huntington have been on the job about two years, and thus have had two drafts to improve what was essentially a barren system. They've also fixated pretty intensely on high school talent after the first round in those drafts, at least in the guys to whom they've paid big bonuses. Lots of them have considerable upside, but given their age, understandably haven't done enough to make it into the top ten yet. And so any evaluation of the Pirates' system that doesn't take guys like Robbie Grossman, Quinton Miller, Jarek Cunningham, Colton Cain and Trent Stevenson into account just isn't really getting it done.

Then there's the fact that the Pirates traded away most of their starting players, and only three players acquired in those trades (Jose Tabata, Tim Alderson and Gorkys Hernandez) fit into BA's top ten--and even then, including Hernandez was probably a stretch. The problem was that besides Jason Bay, the Pirates didn't have anyone particularly good to trade. The Pirates' return for Bay was mediocre, which hurt, but it was counterbalanced by the fact that they got a very good prospect (Tabata), a good starting pitcher (Ross Ohlendorf) and another interesting player (Dan McCutchen) for Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte. That trade was, it turns out, a steal for the Pirates.

Beyond that, the Pirates' problem has been that teams are increasingly unwilling to trade genuinely excellent prospects. It's a hard enough sell to get two great prospects when you're trying to trade Cliff Lee. When you're trying to trade Jack Wilson, it's pretty much impossible. As a result, a lot of the players the Bucs got in trades fit into the #11-#30 bracket. This includes Jeff Locke (from the Nate McLouth deal), Brett Lorin and Nathan Adcock (from Wilson and Ian Snell) and Josh Harrison (from John Grabow and Tom Gorzelanny).

All of which is to say that the Pirates have done pretty well with the options available to them, and given the obstacles they've encountered in getting obvious impact talents, they've done well in building a farm system that's 30 deep, not just ten deep. And there's really nothing wrong with most of the guys they've acquired, either in the draft or in trades, and it wouldn't be at all surprising if several from among Grossman, Miller, Cunningham, Cain, Stevenson, Locke, Lorin, Adcock, Brooks Pounders, Victor Black and Justin Wilson broke out and joined the top ten next year.

The top ten still does look a bit thin right now. But I'm not sure how Huntington and Coonelly could have acquired a bunch of talent much faster. Getting more for Bay would have been great, as would signing Miguel Sano. And reasonable people can disagree about the Pirates' strategy in the first round of the 2009 draft. Overall, though, I think their plan and execution have been quite good. And I think that if Dave Littlefield had done his job and left some interesting guys in A-ball who'd just now be graduating into the top ten themselves, there wouldn't seem to be a problem. Huntington and Coonelly have been placed in the awkward position of having to acquire lots of those sorts of players themselves and then wait for them to develop.

MLB Trade Rumors: Josh Johnson to be Traded??

raygu — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 14:00:21 -0000

by Luis Alvarez - AP

3 months ago: Florida Marlins' Josh Johnson pitches against the Washington Nationals during the first inning of a baseball game, Saturday, Sept. 5, 2009, in Washington. (AP Photo/Luis M. Alvarez)

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This past weekend, MLB.com's Joe Frisaro reported that the Marlins and the agent for starting pitcher Josh Johnson have reached an impasse in their contract negotiations. It appears the Marlins were looking to lockup Johnson and buyout Johnson's final two arbitration years. But Johnson's agent Matt Sosnick is looking for big money. So both sides have agreed to move on.

Here is what Frisaro wrote:

Without getting into specific dollar figures, Sosnick said the Marlins offered three years with a club option for a fourth.

Johnson's camp was hoping the deal would at least match what Kansas City's Zack Greinke signed before the 2009 season. The Royals' ace, recently named the American League Cy Young Award winner, signed for four years at $38 million.

Sosnick goes on to say the following about Johnson's future in Florida:

Sosnick feels 2010 will be Johnson's last with the Marlins, if the team wants to maximize his trade value. Since the Marlins aren't revealing their intentions, that is purely speculation.

In the past, the Marlins retained pitchers A.J. Burnett and Carl Pavano in their final arbitration years, and then received Draft pick compensation when both opted for free agency. On the flip side, Josh Beckett, Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera were dealt before their final years of arbitration.

"We disagreed on the years, which is fair," Sosnick said. "As far as our feelings are concerned, and I feel very strongly that this is true, that Josh either signs a long-term deal now with the Marlins, which is not going to happen, or he gets traded after this year and the Marlins can get some value back.

This tells me the Marlins won't be listening to too many offers for starting pitcher Ricky Nolasco anytime soon. With Johnson reaching free agency in 2011, dealing outfielder Jeremy Hermida to Boston in early November, and the fact that the Marlins are looking to deal second baseman Dan Uggla, the team will be in a bit of a rebuilding stage in 2010 and 2011.

It is way too early to speculate on what teams will be interested in Johnson, but there will certainly be a long line of suitors including the Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox, Cubs among many others. The Marlins will be smart to see what the Indians got for Cliff Lee with a year and a half left on his contract and start listening to offers come the July 2010 trade deadline.

I am sure Larry Beinfest will not waste this opportunity like J.P. Ricciardi did with Roy Halladay last July.

Poll

Will the Marlins be smart and deal Josh Johnson in July 2010 to maximize their return?

Yes, Beinfest is one of the best GMs in the business.

114 votes

No, the Marlins will be in the wildcard hunt and not be able to trade JJ.

64 votes

178 votes | Poll has closed

Don't Give Up On Billingsley Yet

Eric Stephen — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 21:00:13 -0000

More photos » by Lenny Ignelzi - AP

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Over the last couple of days, Jon Weisman of Dodger Thoughts has dived head first into the shark infested waters otherwise known as discussion of Chad Billingsley. For some reason, Billingsley is a lightning rod among Dodger fans, almost the third rail of team discussion. It seems he is either loved or hated, with little room in between.

We all know Billingsley's 2009 didn't end the way anyone would have wanted it. After an All-Star start to his season, Billingsley went 3-8 with a 5.21 ERA and 4.58 FIP since the middle of June. He ended up not even making a playoff start. The only other Dodger starting pitcher in history to make an All-Star team yet not start in the postseason in the same year was Brad Penny in 2006, who was nursing a back injury that year.

To me, the most important thing to note is that the book on Chad Billingsley is not finished; it is still being written. Considering Billingsley turned 25 in 2009, there are likely many more chapters in that book.

Let me know if this story sounds familiar:

Former club leader in wins struggles in the second half
Struggling pitcher gets left off the playoff roster for his team
In fact, pitcher was sent to the minors during his struggling period

This sounds an awful lot like Chad Billingsley (minus the sent to the minors part), but in fact this was the case of Cliff Lee, with the Indians in 2007. Lee turned 29 that year, four years older than Billingsley is now. Here is a look at the career stats as starters for these two pitchers at the fork in the road point of their careers:

Player	Years	Ages	Starts	IP/GS	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	K/9	K/BB	ERA	ERA+	FIP	WHIP
Cliff Lee	2002-2007	23-28	125	5.89	9.27	1.27	3.11	6.64	2.14	4.63	94	4.63	1.375
Chad Billingsley	2006-2009	21-24	100	5.89	8.20	0.78	4.11	8.17	1.99	3.50	121	3.84	1.368

Billingsley holds up pretty well in this comparison to Lee. Now ask yourself, who is more likely to improve -- a 25-year old or a 29-year old? The Indians didn't give up on Lee, and all he did was win the Cy Young in 2008 and put up a 1.56 postseason ERA in five starts for the Phillies in 2009.

I'm not telling you to put your money down on Billingsley for the 2010 NL Cy Young award, but it wouldn't be out of the question. Billingsley still has time and room to improve, but his established baseline is already pretty good. To think otherwise is foolish.

That said, the Dodgers currently have a need for another starting pitcher, maybe two. Roy Halladay, who might be traded out of Toronto, is the name most sought out by many. Bob Nightengale of USA Today suggested last week that Billingsley, among others, would have to be included in any Dodgers' trade for Halladay. Don't get me wrong, Halladay would be a huge upgrade over Billingsley in 2010, but why should the Dodgers have to give up one of their best players to get Halladay? The Phillies gave up minor leaguers to get Cliff Lee in 2009, and the Mets did the same to get Johan Santana in 2008. If the Dodgers want to acquire Halladay (I don't think they will, due to budget constraints), history suggests they shouldn't have to part with Billingsley at all.

News and Notes: Acta Speaks, Again.

Ryan — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 03:28:21 -0000

More photos » by Tony Dejak - AP

Mark Shapiro, normally the public face of the Indians, has given way this offseason to Manny Acta.

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Indians skipper Manny Acta: 'I want to become one of the elite six or seven' managers | Cleveland Indians - cleveland.com - - cleveland.com
Manny Acta sits down for a lengthy interview with Paul Hoynes.

The major acquisition the Indians seem to be targeting this offseason isn't a particular player, but the interest of the Cleveland sports fan. Two consecutive painful and disappointing seasons tend to drain the enthusiasm out of a fanbase, especially when this past season saw two high-profile players (Victor Martinez and Cliff Lee) get traded for prospects. And while last offseason the Indians made a splash by signing Kerry Wood to a big free agent contract, it seems extremely unlikely that type of move will happen this winter. The major moves have already been made, and aside from a couple roster decisions (Kelly Shoppach, for instance), the Indians seem content to play out the 2010 season largely with what they have.

The biggest move the Indians make this offseason will probably be the hiring of Manny Acta as manager. And to that end, the Indians have saturated the Cleveland market with him in hopes of winning him over with the fans. He's appeared on almost every radio show, in numerous newspaper and Internet articles, and on local TV to boot. Any semi-attentive sports fan in this town has probably seen or listened to or read about Acta in the past two weeks. And, in my opinion, it's been a great PR victory for the Indians, as Acta has come across very well in every interview he's done. He's come across as very prepared, understanding in detail the particular problems that face the Indians (for instance, noting baseball's adjustments to Fausto Carmona's sinker). He's been very open about his coaching philosophies, stressing his view that a manger should base his strategies on the abilities of players on the roster, not the other way around. Because the Indians do now have a roster of athletic players, the Indians will run, which will satisfy the Smallball advocates, but if the Indians become again a team of power-hitting plodders, Acta will adjust accordingly to an Earl Weaver style of managing.

In this particular interview, Acta answers all the basic questions about his coaching philosophy, including changing lineups, avoiding a slow start, the frequency of team meetings. He also speaks at length about his career as a player, and his accession up the coaching ladder.

MLB Trade Rumors: Roy Halladay to the Dodgers for Chad Billingsley??

raygu — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 19:15:20 -0000

More photos » by Fred Thornhill - AP

2 months ago: Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Roy Halladay throws against the Seattle Mariners during first-inning AL baseball game action in Toronto, Friday, Sept. 25, 2009. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press,Fred Thornhill)

Browse more photos »

The Dodgers were rumored to be in on the Roy Halladay trade talks last July, but ended up bolstering their bullpen instead by trading for George Sherrill. Now comes this tweet from Bob Nightengale from the USA Today:

#mlb The Dodgers badly need an ace and are focusing on Blue Jay ace Roy Halladay. The Dodgers would have to give up Billingsley and others.

The Dodgers do need an ace pitcher for sure. They need one to get past the NLCS in 2010, should they get there again. But, should the Dodgers give up a cheap starting pitcher with ace potential, along with prospects, for one year, presumably, of Roy Halladay?

I am not convinced Billz needs to be included in the deal. The Phillies gave up 4 minor league prospects for a year and a half of Cliff Lee. Why would the Dodgers give up Billz AND prospects?

Poll

Will the Dodgers need to give up Chad Billingsley in a deal for Roy Halladay?

No, a package or prospects should be enough.

255 votes

Yes, the Dodgers prospects aren't as good as prospects from other teams competing for Halladay's services.

336 votes

591 votes | Poll has closed

Weekend Prowl: Hendry Wants Grandy, What Dombrowski Wants, Arizona Fall League, and the Tiger of the Year

Ian Casselberry — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 14:00:27 -0000

The Chicago Tribune's Phil Rogers heard from a source close to the Cubs that said general manager Jim Hendry is "absolutely" interested a package full of prospects to the Tigers for Curtis Granderson. (And really, if he wasn't, would Hendry be doing his job?)

The key word in Rogers' second paragraph, however, is "if." If Dave Dombrowski is willing to trade Granderson, Hendry wants a shot at him.

(via MLB Trade Rumors)

At The LoHud Yankees Blog, Sam Borden doesn't think Granderson is necessarily a fit for the World Series champs. And if the Tigers want Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain in a deal, he believes the Yanks should pass.

That kind of pitching might be exactly what Dombrowski is looking for, judging from what Brewers GM Doug Melvin told the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel about conversations regarding Edwin Jackson.

As Jason Beck points out, that's more than just seeing what other teams have to offer. But it might also indicate that these trades aren't being considered simply to reduce payroll.

The Detroit Tigers Weblog posted some Arizona Fall League updates. Reliever Robbie Weinhardt and outfielder Casper Wells continue to be standouts. (Wells left Thursday's game after legging out an infield hit, but turned out to be fine.)

The Washington Nationals could have an opening at shortstop (they'd like to move Cristian Guzman over to second base), and one of the guys on their wish list to fill it is Adam Everett, according to Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi. The note makes it sound, however, as if the Nats' first choice is Alex Gonzalez.

For all those Tigers fans who hope Placido Polanco doesn't end up with the Minnesota Twins next season, maybe you shouldn't read this post at Twins Target. Andrew Kneeland is another Twins blogger who thinks Polanco would be a great fit for them, giving them a #2 hitter they've rarely had.

Speaking of Everett, Jeff Zimmerman at Beyond the Box Score projects him to be the leader in UZR at shortstop for 2010.

(via @MackAveTigers on Twitter)

This is a few days old, but if the Tigers are truly interested in trading Jackson, Bucs Dugout wants the Pirates to get in on that action (and thinks closer Matt Capps, along with a couple of prospects, could do it).

At The Spot Starters, Blake VandeBunte has been ranking the Top 109 Seasons in Detroit Tigers history. Team 92 on his list is the 1999 Tigers. Reading through Blake's post, I recalled quite a bit of affection for that squad. Maybe because it was the last team to play in Tiger Stadium?

ESPN.com's Keith Law made his picks for five of the six postseason awards (Insider). (He passed on the NL Cy Young, because he actually cast a ballot in that vote.) Tigers fans will probably agree with his choice for AL Rookie of the Year.

Lost in all the trade rumor and speculation that unexpectedly exploded this week? Justin Verlander was unanimously voted Tiger of the Year by the Detroit chapter of the Baseball Writers Association of America.

Jayson Stark wonders if Cliff Lee was the greatest trade deadline starting pitcher acquisition ever (Insider). If he was listing the worst, where might Jarrod Washburn rank?