SB Nation - John Grabow

The NL Central Offseason Revue: Ursine Children

the red baron — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 19:43:23 -0000

Sure, I've used it before. It's a good picture, damn it.

But first, a story. (Just so you know it's a Baron post.)

Last weekend, my mother and I went shopping. The Cherokee Street Antique Row Association was holding their annual Cookie Spree, and we go every year. There's always people milling around, free hot apple cider, and most of the shops are decorated.

We met up in South County, deciding it was a better idea to take one car. Mom tends to get motion sickness when not driving, so I generally just ride with her. We headed up 55 toward the city, then exited at the 4500 block of Broadway.

At the bottom of the ramp was an old woman holding a sign. A square of cardboard scrawled all over in black marker, I couldn't read exactly what was written but the message was clear nonetheless. It was cold out, and the ragged old overcoat she was clutching around her looked woefully inadequate. I've been conned before, I'm sure, but this was no panhandler. This was an old woman with no place to go who badly needed help.

We came to a stop at the bottom of the ramp, and I dug out my wallet. Mom reached for her purse, and I told her I would get it. I opened my wallet and grabbed the first two bills in it, a ten and a twenty. Then, guided by some internal calculus I don't at all understand, I put the ten back. I handed my mother the twenty, she motioned the old woman over, and gave it to her. The old woman said something, toothless mouth moving quickly, blessing us and wishing us well, but by then the car was moving and I couldn't entirely tell what it was. We continued on our way, had hot chocolate and apple cider and cookies. I bought an antique light fixture; it seemed like a fine day.

I tell you all this not to make you think I'm some sort of saint for giving this old woman twenty dollars, but because ever since then I haven't been able to stop thinking about the ten dollars I didn't give her. I had almost $300 in my wallet that day, and a credit card nowhere near the limit to boot. In no way, shape, or form would that extra ten dollars have hurt me, yet I put it back. And worst of all, I don't understand why. I like to think I would do whatever it takes to help someone in need, but apparently that only goes so far. Apparently there's a price on my generosity, and it's painfully low. A truly good person would have been willing to hand over everything they had in hand and never thought twice about it; I certainly didn't need another antique to litter my already cluttered house.

We went back the same way later, on the way back to my car, but the old woman was gone. I hope what I gave her was enough to help, but I can't stop thinking about that moment, when I arbitrarily decided the limits of how much I was willing to help another human being.

I've had these posts in mind for a while now, trying to take a look around the division at our rivals and what their offseasons might look like, but simply hadn't had the chance to do so yet. With my inability to post a full post on Wednesday, I thought I might ask Dan if he minded me taking today. He seemed amenable to the idea, unsurprising given the dearth of real meat to work with this time of year and what is undoubtedly a crowded schedule for everyone. So here I am, telling you what the Cubs need to do this winter.

I begin with the Cubs because they are our chief rivals and also because it simply fits. We care more about the Cubs. So here we are.

As the Cubbies head into their first offseason with new ownership, the question of payroll undoubtedly must be raised. Their new owner, Tom Ricketts, has pledged to update the stadium and build a winner, but just how much one will impact the other remains to be seen. For now, it looks as if Ricketts is willing to pour money into the franchise in order to win, and we'll have to operate under that assumption.

Offense

The Cubs' offense took a huge hit last season from the high times of 2008, due to several players underperforming. Alfonso Soriano was the biggest culprit, stumbling to an OPS+ of 84 after three seasons over 115. Geovany Soto went through an awful sophomore slump, falling from a 118 OPS+ to 79. Aramis Ramirez missed significant time with a shoulder injury, and Derrek Lee struggled mightily early in the season before turning it around.

There were bright spots, such as the improvement Kosuke Fukudome made from his first season in the majors or the continued non-suckitude of Ryan Theriot, but overall it was an intensely disappointing season for Chicago at the plate. In 2008 the Cubs scored 855 runs; in 2009 they plated only 707. Enough said.

Starting Pitching

If the Cubs' offense was decidedly disappointing, the pitching was underwhelmingly good. Carlos Zambrano continued his human roller coaster act, yet still managed to post an ERA under 4.00 for the eighth straight year. Nonetheless, the Big Z is no longer quite the intimidating force at the front of a rotation he once was. He's still solid, but he doesn't really scare you anymore. (Well, unless you happen to be something edible or punchable in the dugout, that is.)

Ryan Dempster fell off from his 2008 performance, but was still a plus pitcher for Chicago. He was awful much of the early portion of the year, but came on strong late to lower his ERA to 3.65. Dempster provides much-needed innings, and at a reasonably high level. After Z and Dumpster, though, things get a bit murkier.

Ted Lilly, a relatively unsung contributor to the Cubs' back-to-back division titles, has had shoulder surgery already this offseason. It was minor shoulder surgery, yes, but then again, I'm not entirely sure there is such a thing. Lilly was absolutely brilliant in 2009, posting a 3.61 FIP, but until he can prove his shoulder is unequivocally sound, he has to be a concern.

Perhaps the brightest spot of all for the Cubs in '09 was the performance of their rookie hurler, Randy Wells. He went 12-10, 3.05 in his first extended taste of the majors at 27. His peripherals were mostly in line as well, so it doesn't appear he did it all with smoke and mirrors. Still, Wells is a relatively unknown commodity, and may simply be waiting until the time is right to give up a crippling home run, then rip open his jersey, revealing the Cardinal jersey underneath. So there's that.

The Cubs' fifth starter spot was, for the most part, a disaster. Sean Marshall continued to impersonate Sean Marshall. The Cubs acquired Tom Gorzelanny from the Pirates, and he picked up basically where he left off in Pittsburgh. There were positives in his performance, but for the most part it was another disappointing season for the man once voted Most Likely to Actually Live Up to His Billing among all Pittsburgh left-handed starting prospects.

Relief

Carlos Marmol is sort of the pitching equivalent of a British motorcycle. Yeah, it's a whole lot of fun when it's working, and it certainly looks impressive, but damned if the thing isn't broken down and spilling oil all over your driveway more often than not. Marmol has some of the nastiest stuff in the game, but not much idea where it's going a fair amount of the time. Hitters did a much better job of laying off his slider in 2009, and he had a tough time throwing it for strikes. He still struck out a bunch of hitters (93 in 74 innings), and didn't give up many hits (43), but he also walked 65 hitters, leading to a 1.46 WHIP fueled almost entirely by batters simply standing there and doing nothing.

Kevin Gregg was solid, though not the force the Cubs were undoubtedly hoping for, and he has now departed via free agency. Angel Guzman was impressive, combining a repertoire just a step down from Marmol's with actual control, but he remains very young and was shut down late in the season with an injury. Neal Cotts was, um, how do I put this?- shitty, only to be replaced as the primary lefty by John Grabow. Grabow did what he always does, and should be a definite plus in the 'pen for 2010.

Jeff Samardzija continued his enigmatic career arc, following up his 2.28 ERA in 2008 with a 7.53 in 2009. Sure, he's talented, but at some point Samardzija is going to have to come up with something more than a big fastball and a passing resemblance to Andy Samberg if he wants to succeed at the major league level.

Needs

Any discussion of the Chicago Cubs' offseason has to begin with the outfield, where they badly need to figure things out. Milton Bradley wasn't a bad player for them in 2009; on the contrary, he was probably still their best outfielder, but all signs point to him being dealt this offseason, and I'm not sure I can blame the Cubs. As much as Bradley wasn't the problem with the team this year, I just don't know if his relationship with the fans, not to mention his teammates, is a tenable one.

If Bradley is dealt, the Cubs will have to come up with someone to try and replicate his offensive contributions, and several names have been floated. Rick Ankiel was thought to be their first choice until fairly recently, but things seem to have cooled slightly on that front since Scott Boras made his comments about multiple years and big dollars for Swingin' Dick's services. The Cubs don't seem to have much interest in Matt Holliday, perhaps being a bit gun shy after witnessing how horribly wrong a seven-year deal for an outfielder can go. They also haven't been mentioned all that much in the Jason Bay sweepstakes, so I have to assume they're looking at lower-hanging fruit.

Beyond the outfield, it's somewhat doubtful the Cubs will be able to make any substantial upgrades to their offense. Both corner infield positions are set, and rightfully so. Soto will be looking for a bounceback season; it's far too early to write him off as a one-year wonder. The only spots the Cubs could look to upgrade are the middle infield positions, but I'm not sure how much help is really available at those spots this offseason. Perhaps the Cubbies get involved in trying to trade for Dan Uggla? They do have an exciting young middle infield prospect in the pipeline named Starlin Castro, who has garnered plenty of comparisons to Edgar Renteria, and could draw interest from Florida, but little beyond that.

The bullpen has to be an area of concern, and priority one has to be sorting out who will at least begin the season as the Chicago closer. Marmol, I'm sure, will have the inside track on the job, but after his 2009 performance it shouldn't be a foregone conclusion. I doubt the Cubs will go outside the organisation to find a stopper, but it's likely they'll try to acquire at least an arm or two to bolster the overall depth of the 'pen.

Priorities

Deal with Milton Bradley situation. Trade is most likely outcome.
Acquire offensive upgrade to replace Bradley's production. Left-handed hitter would be desirable.
Shore up bullpen, likely through trades. (Bradley?)
Look at other possible offensive upgrades, i.e. Uggla or Mark DeRosa as utility player.
Acquire 5th starter/ insurance arm for Ted Lilly.
???
World Series title.

The Bottom Line

The Cubs are by no means in dire straights. They underachieved badly last season, but the offense should receive a boost from a full season from Ramirez and, hopefully, better years from Soriano, Soto, and Lee. The same can't really be said for the pitching, which performed right about where one would expect, given the talent level. The starting rotation will remain their biggest strength, while the bullpen remains somewhat suspect.

At this point, the Cubs have to be considered the Cards' main competition for the division again in 2009. Both teams are clearly a step or two ahead of the pack.

There you go, folks. One in the can, four to go.

The Baron's Playlist for the 11th of December, 2009

"The Blizzard" - Camera Obscura A cover of the Jim Reeves/ Johnny Cash classic. Any CO fans out there (and I know there are some), you might want to check out their holiday 7" release, with the Blizzard backed by Swans.

"My Wife and My Dead Wife" - Robyn Hitchcock and the Egyptians

"Oh You Pretty Things" - Peter Noone I just heard this on Pop! The Beat Bubble Bursts yesterday morning, and I can't stop listening to it. It's a Bowie cover by the former Herman's Hermits frontman, and it has a bit of an early Harry Nilsson vibe to it. Really great.

"Intermezzo Sinfonico" from Mascagni's Cavalleria Rusticana - James Levine

"Take On Me" - A.C. Newman Another tip of the hat to KDHX, this time to Nick Acquisto and the Space Parlour. Outstanding cover of the A-Ha classic.

Edit: And, of course, on the day I write this, some actual news comes down the pipeline, as the Cardinals have now apparently made an official offer to Scott Boras and Matt Holliday. Sigh. They couldn't have waited just one more day? Really?

11/24 - Opinions Can Be A Pain

bs.uf15bosox9bears23 — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 10:00:11 -0000

Okay, so I lied about the Filter being daily this week. Yes, I realize this situation's stupid. Let's move on to the links, shall we? As an experiment, I'm not going to say much about most of the links - except these:

This Dirt Is Free - A Red Sox Fan From Pinstripe Territory

Not completely relevant, but I figure that some people are going to want to be on the lookout for this. Doesn't bother me too much, but I don't own a blog and I don't see most advertisements anyways. That's more of an aesthetic choice than a political one though - I don't enjoy explaining the presence of certain ads to anyone that glances over my shoulder. However, there is a political aspect to blogging that I'd love to discuss:

ESPN is a bunch of morons

I don't particularly like Mr. Simmons's work. Most of it isn't entertaining, to me. But that doesn't mean I think that ESPN should be able to control what he can and can't say. (Yeah, I know, the stupid kid is ranting about stuff that he's not old enough to understand, but just bear with me.)

For one, maybe it's the young and naive view that needs to be considered here; I haven't been around long enough to be corrupted into thinking money is the only thing that matters. That'd be why I tend to over-romanticize simple stuff like curfews - but I digress. To me, there isn't a thing in the world more valuable than my voice. Without it, I wouldn't be able to write this post. Without it, I wouldn't be able to further my education through questioning the material. Without it, I wouldn't be able to express my many, hormone-driven emotions, I wouldn't be able to share my faith, and I wouldn't be able to be the die-hard fan I am. In short, I wouldn't be me without my voice.

Unless Mr. Simmons shares my flair for the dramatic and decided to sign an iron-clad contract with Lucifer so that he could have his voice amplified, I don't see how ESPN can justify censoring someone who was simply defending himself. Even though he probably could have found a more intelligent way of doing it than name-calling via Twitter, Mr. Simmons was not in the wrong to speak his mind. It may be part of the conditions that he agreed to when he signed onto ESPN, but I'm sure an insanity plea wouldn't be that hard to make for Mr. Simmons' case.

And now, onto the other links: some interesting, in not confusing, stuff about different parks and their effects upon stats; a couple of takes on recent Sox news; and plans for MLB domination!

HR/FB Park Factors - THT

For those of us that get a kick out of the wind tunnel effect at New Yankee Stadium, here's some interesting data.

Is UZR park adjusted[?] - Inside the Book

Yeah, I got lost a lot during this, but maybe someone can explain some of the more technical stuff?

Type A label hurts free agents such as John Grabow, Juan Cruz - Sky Andrecheck

Terry Francona's Staff One of the Best in Baseball - NESN.com

Even After Rough Season, Jonathan Papelbon Still the Red Sox' Best Choice for Closer - NESN.com

JD Drew Undergoes Shoulder Surgery - Bleacher Report

Good job, sir. Basically what we've been saying around here for a while.

Trade Market: Righty Relievers - MLBTradeRumors.com

We REALLY should have traded MDC for Nick Johnson. And now he REALLY needs to be good.

Red Sox May Take a Step Back in 2010 To Take Two Steps Forward in 2011 - Bleacher Report

As long as we can fail spectacularly so that we can lose some of the bandwagoners.

Red Sox Don’t Need to Break Bank to Win 2010 World Series - NESN.com

Yes, this is a generally accepted and completely obvious fact. And?

David Ortiz Has No Desire to Be General Manager - Heidi Watney

Try to focus on what Papi is saying, gentlemen.

All-Aughts Team of the Decade RP5: Rich Garces - Fire Brand of the American League

All-Aughts Team of the Decade bench IF: Alex Cora - Fire Brand of the American League

I kid you not, Drugs.

All-Aughts Team of the Decade SP2: Curt Schilling - Fire Brand of the American League

Ben Cherington Is Underrated Difference-Maker for Red Sox - NESN.com

The replacement for Jed Hoyer gets a nice little biographical post.

How Sabermetrics saved my dissertation - THT

What does clinical psychology have in common with Sabermetrics? Quite a bit, as it turns out.

Awesome story.

NEW SEGMENT: ~~OMGOMGOMGIWantToCallItTheJedSectionButItWouldBeWeirdYou'llSeeWhatIMeanInASecond~~

Falling to the Bottom of The Filter

New Poll Question: Left Field Left-overs - Fire Brand of the American League

Umm... where's Cameron? Or at least the Ells (with a new CF) option? I guess not every Sox blog has explored these options.

Miguel Cabrera Reminds Us That Character Still Matters - NESN.com

So THAT'S why he got a 1st place vote!

Why The Red Sox Should Get Alfonso Soriano - Bleacher Report

So... the contract... not at all a bad thing?

Links, comments, and angry rants (just warn us if there's any NSFW language) are all appreciated.

Friday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 15:25:35 -0000

by Jim Prisching - AP

The Braves would love to unload Derek Lowe's contract, but don't sound all that interested in taking on Corey Hart in exchange.

View full size photo »

Some things to read while moving Christmas dinner.

When something shows up in two separate sections of the site, it's usually best to assume it's true, so the fact that there are posts about it in Rumorville and the FanShots must mean there's some truth to the rumor that the Brewers and Braves have discussed a trade that would send Corey Hart to the Braves for Derek Lowe. However, Mark Bowman of MLB.com says the Braves aren't interested in Hart, which makes two of us. Meanwhile, Jorge Says No! reiterated a trade idea they mentioned a while back: Hart for Kenshin Kawakami.

As of 12:01 this morning, the market is officially open for free agents to negotiate with other teams. Tom H. has an overview of the market, with the Brewers tied to the usual names: John Lackey, Doug Davis, Jarrod Washburn. Randy Wolf's name was also mentioned.

The Pinstriper has predictions for all of this offseason's Type A and B free agents, and thinks the Brewers will sign Doug Davis and re-sign Jason Kendall. Meanwhile, they have Mike Cameron, Braden Looper, Felipe Lopez and David Weathers signing with the Padres, Astros, Dodgers and Pirates, respectively.

While the BBWAA has left the Brewers out in their voting for most of their major awards, one pitcher still collected an award from another source: Manny Parra won Joe Posnanski's NL Les Sweetland Award for being the NL's worst pitcher in 2009, while Jason Kendall narrowly missed winning the NL LVP.

At least in this scenario, Kendall wouldn't be back: Wisconsin Sports Tap thinks the Brewers should step into the future and give Jonathan Lucroy the catching job in 2010. I've covered why I think it's a bad idea.

Two Brewer staffers, manager in the Brewers' media relations department John Steinmiller and manager of marketing promotions Caitlin Moyer have started a blog to keep fans updated on what's going on at Miller Park during the offseason, and they have a post on some planned renovations in and around the park, as well as the renaming of some parking lots (h/t Adam McCalvy). Miller Park Drunk took a look at the new parking lot map and wonders how Paul Molitor ended up getting the faraway lot.

As noted in today's Fall/Winter League Update, Alcides Escobar had a pretty good night in Venezuela last night, going 4-for-4 with a solo home run. If you're looking for more about it and happen to speak Spanish, here's a game story from ElImpulso.com.

For many Brewer fans, it's been a long few decades of waiting for the Crew to put a winning team back on the field, but we've held strong. A Girl's View of the Brewers tells the story of her Brewer fanhood.

Around the league:

Cubs: Re-signed John Grabow to a one year deal worth $3.75 million.
D-Backs: Acquired Aaron Heilman from the Cubs for a pair of minor leaguers.
Royals: Signed pitcher Brad Thompson to a minor league deal.

I know I mentioned it earlier this week, but I'm going to mention Lookout Landing's Faces series again because today's installment features former Brewer first round pick Dave Krynzel.

The deadline has passed for players to be added to 40-man rosters to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft, so we can start looking at players who might be available. One such player is former Brewer farmhand Cole Gillespie, left unprotected by the D-Backs. Gillespie hit very well in AAA for the D-Backs after being acquired as part of the Felipe Lopez deal, and will probably get a shot to make a team as a fourth outfielder next spring.

We spend a lot of time discussing minutiae during the offseason and most of it doesn't amount to much in the end, but this is why we do it: Jonathan Mayo of MiLB.com has a look at players who have gone from minor league free agent to big league contributor. It doesn't happen often, but it is possible to strike gold.

Miller Park Drunk is starting a season-by-season review of the decade that was for the Brewers, but you're forgiven if you're not too excited about reliving the 2000 season. It's about as exciting as Ryan Braun modeling more Remetee stuff.

Does a change up lose its effectiveness when a batter sees it multiple times? That's the question Max Marchi of The Hardball Times is taking on, by looking at batters who see multiple change ups, both in the same AB and over multiple ABs, and the pitchers who throw them.

On this day in 1969, the Seattle Pilots fired Joe Schultz, the first manager in franchise history, after just one season. Dave Bristol took over and managed the club for their first three seasons in Milwaukee.

Also, on this day in 1989, Robin Yount won his second American League MVP Award, this one as a center fielder. Yount received just eight of the 27 available first place votes but edged out Ruben Sierra by 28 points.

I couldn't find a Brewer birthday again today, so we'll have to settle for wishing a happy birthday to Rick Monday, who turns 64. Thanks in advance to FtJ, who will likely point out a birthday I missed in the comments.

And finally, a programming note: I'm leaving in a few hours to go deer hunting for a few days. I'll still be writing the Mug next week, but I'm moving Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday's Mugs to the afternoon so I can still hunt in the mornings. I'll be back with a regular Mug a week from today.

Drink up.

Cubs Trade Aaron Heilman To Diamondbacks; Also Re-Sign John Grabow

Tommy Rancel — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 02:42:38 -0000

More photos » by Frank Franklin II - AP

The Cubs handed a $7 million dollar contract to John Grabow, who has been worth $5.3 million dollars over his career. They later traded Aaron Heilman to Arizona for a pair of prospects.

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On the eve of Free Agency, the Cubs made a pair of moves involving relief pitchers.

First, the Cubs re-signed LHP John Grabow to a two-year contract reportedly worth $7-7.5 million dollars. If you're asking yourself why they would spend that much money on a player who has accumulated -0.1 WAR over the past three seasons, then you're in the right place.

Grabow is a serviceable relief pitcher, but he is nothing special. His fastball sits in the low 90s, and like a lot of other relievers, he mixes in sliders and change-ups. His change-up has proven to be a plus pitch, but overall he doesn't generate a lot of swings and misses (8.1 swstr% in 2009).

Results wise, Grabow has benefited from a shiny ERA, and that's probably why he got the contract he did. In 2008, he posted an ERA of 2.84 for the Pirates and followed that up with a combined 3.36 for Pittsburgh and Chicago in 2009. Advanced metrics, however, see past the ERA screen and rate Grabow about average. His FIP in 2008 was 4.54 and only slightly better in 2009 at 4.20. That's not terrible, but I'm not giving him $7 million dollars over two seasons to basically be replacement level--especially not the day before the market is flooded with cheaper, and in many cases better, options.

The difference in FIP and ERA looks to come from high walk rates. For his career, Grabow has a BB/9 of 4.15. This past season, that rate was a whopping 4.98, while he only struck out 7.09 batters per nine. He can thank a friendly BABIP of .279 (.251 in 2008), and a begging-to-be-regressed HR/FB% of 5.7 in 2009 (nearly half of his career average) for the stellar ERA numbers. Unlike most lefty relievers, Grabow has shown the ability to get out right handed batters, but for a guy who has been worth just $5.3 million dollars since 2003, it's just silly to hand him $7 million dollars.

The other move for the Cubs involved trading away another reliever, Aaron Heilman, to the Diamondbacks for two prospects. Heilman, like Grabow, was merely serviceable out of the Cubs bullpen in 2009, and he remains unspectacular. His 4.37 FIP was slightly above his career average of 4.13. Nothing in his BABIP or batted ball rates would suggest fluke, so it would seem his 2009 season is pretty indicative of what to expect going forward. He made $1.6 million in 2009 and is arbitration eligible for the final time. Given the mediocre season, he should see a marginal pay raise, which led some to believe he would be non-tendered. Although he has starting experience, he hasn't started a major league game since 2005, and reports are that Arizona sees him as a reliever.

In return for Heilman's services, the Cubs will receive LHP Scott Maine and 1B Ryne White. Besides sharing a first name with a Cubs legend, Ryne White doesn't look like much of a prospect. Drafted in the fourth round of the 2008 draft out of Purdue, White had mixed results in his first full pro season. Spending the entire season at A+ (Visalia) level, he showed a good eye, walking 13.5% of the time while striking out 20.8%. The favorable walk rate helped push his OBP over the .370 mark, however, he showed little power in the process. A "stocky" player in frame (5-10, 205ish), he hit just 25 XBH in nearly 500 plate appearances and slugged just .356 on the season with an ISO of .091. A left handed batter, he struggled against LHP and looks more like a platoon player going forward.

The other player headed to the windy city is 24 year-old lefty, Scott Maine. Drafted by the D-Backs in 2006, Maine looks like he could be a sleeper candidate for a bullpen spot as early as the 2010 season. A side-armer, Maine throws in the mid 90s, and not surprisingly gets his fair share of ground balls. After posting a 2.88 FIP in 47.1 innings at AA, he was briefly promoted to AAA where he put up an impressive 2.59 FIP, albeit in just 14.2 innings. He has struck out more than a batter per inning in his career, and seems to have a good handle on the long ball. That said, walks are a slight issue. If nothing else, Maine is a cheap, controllable asset which is something that can't be said for Heilman or Grabow.

John Grabow Agrees to Re-Sign With Cubs

Charlie — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 22:49:36 -0000

More photos » by Lenny Ignelzi - AP

7 months ago: Pittsburgh Pirates' John Grabow, right, and Robinson Diaz high-five after the Pirates' 8-3 victory over the San Diego Padres in a baseball game in San Diego, Sunday, April 26, 2009. (AP Photo/Lenny Ignelzi)

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For two years and $7 million or more, which is a good, if not completely unreasonable, chunk of change for him. (Grabow made $2.3 million in 2009, his last year of arbitration.) If the reports about Jason Bay rejecting a $60 million deal from the usually-pretty-circumspect Red Sox are also accurate, we could be looking at a surprisingly robust free agent market this winter.

It's been interesting to see so many former Pirates quickly re-sign with their new teams--first Freddy Sanchez and Jack Wilson, and now Grabow. After you leave the Pirates, going anywhere else must seem fantastic.

Cubs, John Grabow close in on deal

Eli Greenspan — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 21:12:14 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

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Carrie Muskat of MLB.com is reporting that the Cubs are closing in on a two year deal with lefty reliever John Grabow. Grabow posted a 3.24 ERA in 30 appearances with the Cubs after coming over from the Pirates on July 30th with pitcher Tom Gorzelanny.

Grabow held lefties to a .222 average in 2009. Grabow will give the Cubs a solid veteran arm in a pen that is expected to be fairly young next season.

A Free Agency's Eve Update on Milton Bradley

R.J. Anderson — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 18:22:13 -0000

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

A re-enactment of the Cubs/Rays talks on Milton Bradley-for-Pat Burrell.

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BNightengale: #mlb The Tampa Bay #Rays have become the clear-cut favorite to acquire Milton Bradley

This seems to indicate there was a time when the Rays weren't the frontrunner to acquire Bradley. Everything that can be written about this potential swap has been written. Free agency starts tomorrow and today the Cubs re-signed John Grabow for $7M over two years. That should tell you two things: A) the Cubs have their checkbooks out and B) they aren't afraid to waste some money. To be blunt, I'm tired of waiting on this thing to happen. I've got articles about how B.J. Upton is going to be a horrible influence on Bradley waiting to go. Just spend some cash and make the goat go away. That's how it works, right?

For those wondering, Burrell's CHONE projection is 10 runs worse than Bradley.

Take the Braves out of the running for these free agents

gondeee — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 00:28:22 -0000

More photos » by Chris Carlson - AP

Was it Divine intervention that prevented the Atlanta Braves from signing Rafael Furcal... or just his agents.

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Last off-season the Atlanta Braves announced they had come to terms with free agent Rafael Furcal on a three-year contract... but less than 24-hours later Furcal had signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers. In the aftermath of that episode, Braves President John Schuerholtz stated that the Braves would never again do business with Furcal's agents, the Wasserman Group, headed by super-agent Arn Tellem.

As a side note to this, if we had signed Furcal, then we would have moved Kelly Johnson to left field, we never would have signed Garret Anderson, and Martin Prado may never have emerged as a bona fide major league starter at second base. And we might have traded Yunel Escobar somewhere. Things tend to work out for the best sometimes, as Furcal layed an egg in 2009.

Here are the free agents this off-season who are represented by the Wasserman Group, and are therefore off-limits to the Braves (courtesy of MLBTR):

Wilson Betemit
Aaron Boone
Nomar Garciaparra
Jason Giambi
John Grabow
Rich Harden
Shawn Hill
Reed Johnson
Jason Kendall
Hideki Matsui
Jason Michaels
Guillermo Mota
Vicente Padilla
Wily Mo Pena
Joel Pineiro
Matt Treanor
Randy Wolf
Omar Vizquel

I must say that there's no one I really want on that list, so for this year at least, no harm, no foul.

Building A Cubs Champion: 2010 Edition

Al — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 15:15:22 -0000

by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Like it or not, one of the keys to the Cubs' success in 2010 is a resurgence by Alfonso Soriano. Here, he launches his game-winning grand slam vs. the Astros last July 27.

View full size photo »

Last year about this time, I made this post discussing what I thought should be the makeup of the 2009 Cubs.

Brave, isn't it, of me to post that link when I'd just as soon forget about it. I was shouted down and laughed at (people are still giving me grief for the Kevin Millar thing, and they were absolutely correct), and had the Cubs put that 25-man roster on the field last April, they'd undoubtedly have had a much worse season than they did in real life (case in point: Alex Hinshaw, who I thought was an up-and-coming LOOGY, threw only six major league innings in 2009, posting a 12.00 ERA).

So let me go about this project this year in a different sort of way. A year ago (actually, October 20, 2008 was the date I wrote the post about my proposed 2009 roster) we were all still stunned and angry that the 97-win team that had dominated the National League all season went three-and-out in the playoffs. This was before Lou's "we've gotta get more lefthanded" mantra led us to the Milton Bradley disaster, before popular favorites Kerry Wood and Mark DeRosa were let go, and a lot of us were wondering, "How can we make a team that good into one that will win 11 games in October?"

Jim Hendry and Co. were asking themselves the same question, obviously, but came up with the wrong answer. Without rehashing what we've rehashed all summer long, clearly, it didn't work -- and not just because of Hendry's moves, but because players like Alfonso Soriano, Geovany Soto and Mike Fontenot seriously underperformed their 2008 numbers by considerable margins and for various reasons, and because Aramis Ramirez, who is the Cubs' best hitter, missed 50 games with a dislocated shoulder and wasn't at full strength the rest of the season, eventually playing in only 82 games.

I believe in what new owner Tom Ricketts said at his introductory press conference: that the Cubs already have the talent that can win the World Series, and only need a few tweaks to bring the club back to pennant-contending level. I'm also going to assume that what we've heard about player payroll is correct: that it will be increased, if only "slightly", from 2009, and thus will wind up at (approximately) $145 million. That will rank third in baseball, behind the Yankees and Red Sox.

Thus, instead of trying to build a roster simply by picking pieces from here and there, let's use that $145 million to put together a winning team.

Let's begin with players we know will be with the team next year, and their payroll figures (all numbers from the excellent site Cot's Baseball Contracts). These players are under contract for 2010 and will definitely be on the team, followed by their contract amounts:

Alfonso Soriano, $19,000,000
Carlos Zambrano, $18,875,000
Aramis Ramirez, $16,500,000
Kosuke Fukudome, $14,000,000
Ryan Dempster, $13,500,000
Derrek Lee, $13,000,000
Ted Lilly, $13,000,000

That's $107,875,000 for seven players. The Cubs also owe Jeff Samardzija $1,000,000 on the major league portion of his deal (whether or not he throws a major league inning) and $500,000 to the long-ago-released Luis Vizcaino, who pitched 3.2 innings in a Cub uniform. We're now at $109,375,000, leaving "only" $35,625,000 for 18 more players to fill out the Opening Day 25-man roster. That means there are going to be a fair number of minimum-wage players in 2010, because among the players remaining, a number of them are arbitration-eligible, meaning they will be in line for raises.

The first order of business is to remove Milton Bradley from the premises. We have had many long debates about whether and for whom he should be traded, but I believe this is top priority for Jim Hendry and will happen sooner rather than later. Disagree if you wish, but I think the best of many not-so-great scenarios is to send him -- and Aaron Miles -- to the Giants for Aaron Rowand. Between Bradley and Miles, they are owed a total of $23.7 million; Rowand is owed $36 million. Since in doing a deal like this, you would be relieving the Giants, essentially, of $12 million (approximately) by taking the third year of Rowand's contract, Hendry should ask the Giants to split the difference and pay half of Rowand's 2012 contract, which would split the total dollars (approximately $60 million) between the two teams, about $30 million each.

This would also accomplish equalizing the 2010 payroll -- or come close -- to what Bradley and Miles would have been owed ($11.7 million) and what Rowand is owed ($12 million). I think the Giants would be willing to do this, because you are taking $6 million off their 2012 payroll, while leaving their 2010 and 2011 payrolls where they are now, since Bradley is owed $12 million in 2011.

I concede that Rowand has had two pretty poor offensive seasons in San Francisco (at least in part due to injuries). But in 2007, he had a fine hitting year in Philadelphia, and I believe that he has at least a chance to return to that level in Chicago. If you were looking at the possible acquisition of Rowand in a vacuum, you wouldn't do it -- but the necessity of removing Bradley from the team makes this probably about the best way to accomplish that. At best, this could turn into a Hundley-for-Grudzielanek-and-Karros sort of deal.

So, now the Cubs have a center fielder (with Fukudome moving back to his original position, right field, improving the outfield defense at two spots), but we are now at eight players and have only $23,625,000 left. They're fortunate that Geovany Soto is not yet arbitration-eligible, so let's say the Cubs bump him up to $825,000 from the $575,000 he made in 2009. That's a pretty good raise, given the bad year he had. Now we're at $22,800,000. Backup catcher Koyie Hill made $475,000 in 2009 and had a good year for a backup. Let's move him up to $600,000, leaving $22,200,000.

I'm going to leave the double-play combination alone for 2010. It's likely that by 2011, Starlin Castro will be the Cubs' starting shortstop -- but for now, because Lou and Jim like them, Jeff Baker and Ryan Theriot will return. Baker made $415,000 in 2009 and had a good run after he was acquired from Colorado -- one of Hendry's best moves last year. Let's pay him $500,000, and Theriot $700,000, both up from 2009. That's 12 players, and $21,000,000 remaining for the other 13 -- we're getting to the point where we can actually think about signing a free agent or two or making a deal.

Among our 12 signed players so far are nine hitters -- so, given the current fad of having 12 pitchers on your staff, we have room for four more offensive players. I like Andres Blanco and Sam Fuld -- both performed well in backup roles in 2009. Neither hits much, but both play outstanding defense and neither is going to be expected to start more than a handful of games. Fuld made $401,500 and Blanco $400,000 (the minimum) in 2009, and let's give them both raises to $425,000. We are at 14 players and have $20,050,000 left. We'll need one more outfielder and also a guy who could fill the role that was filled in 2007 and 2008 by Daryle Ward, and in 2009 by Micah Hoffpauir.

Sad to say, I'm non-tendering Micah. He's 30 in March and didn't really do well most of last year -- he's a one-dimensional player, since he's really not a very good outfielder, and didn't do well in the dimension (hitting) he was supposedly good at. Since we're no longer locked in to the "lefthanded" mantra of a year ago, the Cubs can put the minimum-wage Jake Fox -- bumped up to $500,000 for his good performance of a year ago -- in this slot, and re-sign Rowand's close friend Reed Johnson for $3 million to fill in when his buddy hits the brick wall at Wrigley too many times.

So, we now have $16,550,000 left for nine pitchers -- which means we're going to have to fill most of the bullpen with minimum-wage guys. That's actually fine with me -- look at the disaster that was Aaron Heilman last year (in my opinion, Heilman should be non-tendered) -- and the Cubs have a couple of real good prospects, in my opinion, to fill middle-relief roles in Justin Berg and Esmailin Caridad. They get the minimum $400,000 each, leaving $15,750,000 for seven more pitchers. It was reported earlier this week that the Cubs are negotiating a two-year deal with John Grabow; reported figures are "between $6.5 and $7.5 million" for the two years. Let's assume for this post that it's in between, and Grabow gets $3.5 million for 2010. We've got $12,250,000 left and six spots to fill on the pitching staff. Carlos Marmol is going to close; he made $575,000 in 2009, so let's bump him to $800,000. Angel Guzman will be his primary right-handed setup guy (Grabow's the lefty setup guy, or should be, if Lou would ever use him right). Guzman made $421,500 in 2009; he could be renewed at $500,000.

Our payroll drawer is nearly empty (you can almost count the remaining Benjamins, right?); we have $10,950,000 remaining and still need to fill three spots, one in the pen, and two in the starting rotation, and here's where it gets a bit dicey (and this is why I left this part for last). First, you can fill one of the starting spots with Randy Wells, who made the minimum last year and certainly deserves a raise; let's put him at $750,000 (or maybe even a bit less; he's renewable, meaning you don't have to give him that much of a raise until he's arb-eligible next year), leaving $10,200,000. The Cubs have five free agents: Rich Harden, John Grabow, Kevin Gregg, Chad Fox and Reed Johnson. I already re-signed Johnson and Grabow above; Gregg and Fox, thanks for your service, see you in another uniform next year (and please, Jim, not another minor-league invite for Chad Fox. He's done).

But what to do with Harden? If you offer him arbitration, he'll almost certainly accept. To paraphrase Longfellow's nursery rhyme, "When he's good, he's very, very good; when he's bad, he's horrid". If Harden accepts arbitration, he's likely to get pretty close to all the remaining dollars in the drawer -- so reluctantly, we say goodbye to Rich, without the arb offer, unless you can somehow agree ahead of time to get him to sign for $8 million or so. That's not unreasonable given his $7 million salary in 2009 and his mediocre performance.

For the sake of argument, then, let's say we have this $10,950,000 available for our two remaining spots. One of those spots is going to go to Sean Marshall, who, I believe, deserves another shot at the starting rotation after doing a good job as a swingman in 2009. Lou misused him as a LOOGY -- Marshall can clearly do better than getting one LH batter out -- and I'd like to see Sean, now 27 and with four major league seasons under his belt, get a shot at starting. Sean made $450,000 in 2009, and could be paid $600,000 in 2010. In this scenario Samardzija makes the team, likely because the Cubs are paying him the $1 million whether he makes it or not. Otherwise there are other possibilities, including Arizona Fall Leaguers John Gaub and Andrew Cashner, or maybe someone else who will have a good spring (and please, let's not have another David Patton scenario), for this final spot.

That leaves $10,350,000 (or just under $10 million if you use Gaub or Cashner, who would make the minimum). You could consider signing someone like Jon Garland, who just got his option declined by the Dodgers and is a free agent. Garland made $7.25 million in 2009 and had a "typical" Garland year, which is as an inning-eater; you could probably get him for about $8 million for 2010. Garland has made at least 32 starts for eight straight years, and has pitched no fewer than 191.2 innings in any of those eight. Doing that would take the pressure off the staff, especially if Ted Lilly isn't ready for Opening Day, and would let Marshall play the "swingman" role again. Or you could give that last rotation spot to Tom Gorzelanny, who made $433,000 in 2009, and save the money for a midseason acquisition.

Note that I haven't gone all DeRomantic here and proposed bringing back Mark DeRosa, although I think he'd still be a solid addition, even at age 35, for the right price, and a note in this St. Louis Post-Dispatch article indicates the Cubs may indeed make DeRo an offer. I also haven't retained Mike Fontenot, who could probably be traded -- I mentioned above non-tendering Heilman, but it may be possible that both Fontenot and Heilman could be dealt, even for low-level prospects. In fact, my 2010 team as proposed above has only two players (Rowand and Garland) who were not with the Cubs at some point in 2009 -- unless they decided not to go with Jake Fox in the bench role and instead signed a free agent (or one who soon will be) such as Ross Gload or Chad Tracy, whose option was declined by the Diamondbacks yesterday. Still, despite all the travails, injuries and bad performances in 2009, the Cubs won 83 games. With performances returning to career norms, better health and a little luck, just a few tweaks could have us returning to the postseason in 2010.

Three Rules to Keep in Mind Regarding Relievers

R.J. Anderson — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 11:00:19 -0000

by John Bazemore - AP

Atlanta Braves relief pitcher Mike Gonzalez freaks the hell out after recording the final out in the Braves' 6-2 win over the Washington Nationals in a baseball game in Atlanta, Wednesday, Aug. 12, 2009. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)

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1) No Type-A Relievers

These players will cost the Rays their first round pick as well as the financial terms necessary to hook the arm. That means Billy Wagner, Darren Oliver, Octavio Dotel, Jose Valverde, Mike Gonzalez, Rafael Soriano, LaTroy Hawkins, Rafael Betancourt, Kevin Gregg, and John Grabow are all no-goes. Yes, the Rays have two first round picks, however, the compensatory pick is more than a dozen picks away from the 2010 first round pick, meaning if the Rays want a Type-A player it will come at the cost of a mid-first rounder, not a late-first rounder.

Now, there is a potential exception. If the team of a select player chooses against tendering an offer of arbitration which waives the compensatory pick. That being stated, if the Rays were to sign a player before the arbitration acceptance deadline (which falls within the first week of December) then they would give up the first round pick no matter the other team's intentions.

Some of those relievers are good players, but giving up the sixteenth pick (technically; virtually the seventeenth pick) for 60 innings is worthless. That slot has produced some fantastic ballplayers. Over the last four years: Bobby Borchering, Brett Lawrie, Kevin Ahrens, and substance abuser Jeremy Jeffress. Some other notables: Chris Volstad, David Purcey, Nick Swisher, Jason Jennings, Kip Wells, Lance Berkman, and Shawn Green. A few true stinkers too, but for the most part some fine talent.

2) Injuries Are Sometimes a Necessary Evil

Especially with pitchers. If guys like Kiko Calero were 100% dependable then they would be outside of our price range. Thankfully they aren't in either case. This is where luck and medical staffs come in handy. If you sign three relievers with about 60% chances of pitching more than 45 innings, then the chances of all three doing such is 21% and the chances of none of them doing it is 6.4%.

J.J. Putz, for instance, has bone spurs, tendon fraying, and gingeritis which lead to downed velocity and ineffectiveness but could make for an interesting non-roster invitee. Same can be said about Chad Cordero who quickly disappeared after a few years as a rosterbation champion.

3) Trading Prospects for Relievers

Not a good idea under most circumstances. Trading Reid Brignac for a young catcher with a few years of control left and having a young relief arm thrown in as an equalizer is one thing, trading a young prospect for a reliever straight-up is generally not smart. For instance: I absolutely detested the Orioles/Dodgers mid-season swap from the Dodgers perspective. They gave up third baseman Joshua Bell for George Sherrill. The latter was fantastic for the Dodgers - providing 0.4 WAR during half a season - meanwhile the former posted a .397 wOBA in Double-A and possesses the nickname "Baby Kemp". You don't have to guess which side is probably winning that deal.

Summary

Of the top 15 relievers this year, only three were free agent signings and those three were Kiko Calero, Chan Ho Park, and Trevor Hoffman. Seven were dealt for, four were drafted (three as starters), and one via the Rule 5 draft. Relievers are often overvalued because of sentimental value - i.e. when a team loses in the late innings - but the truth is even the best closers are only worth two-to-three wins in any given year.