SB Nation - Salomon Torres

Monday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 15:30:33 -0000

by Jim Prisching - AP

Jeff Suppan reacts after walking in three runs during the fourth inning of a baseball game against the Cubs. Searching for someone who will take his contract could be one of the Brewers' focal points this week.

View full size photo »

Some things to read while the blue socks tie your look together.

All eyes turn to Indianapolis this week, as the Winter Meetings start today. While there, Brewer management would most likely jump at any chance to unload the contract of Jeff Suppan. Tom H. floated the idea of a Suppan-for-Juan Pierre deal, while Jorge Says No! wonders if Jeff Suppan and prospects for Gil Meche makes sense (Also noted in Rumorville). For whatever it's worth, the Meche deal is probably unlikely unless one of the Brewers' top prospects is involved. Apparently the Mets have also contacted the Royals to ask about him.

Other pre-meeting buzz:

Tom H. has a winter meeting preview with some stuff you've heard before and a Doug Melvin complaint about cost uncertainty.
Steve Henson of Yahoo says the Brewers are more likely to look for free agents than trades to fill the gaps in their rotation and bench.
Adam McCalvy has a look at some of the prospects that could be mentioned if the Brewers decide to make a deal, but acknowledges the fact that the Brewers don't have the organizational depth to make a major splash via that route.
Apparently Edwin Jackson, one trade candidate the Brewers have expressed interest in, could find a new home soon.
Meanwhile, Yahoo is reporting that multiple teams are interested in Doug Davis, but the only candidate they're naming at this point is the Crew.

If you weren't around over the weekend, Noah did a great job in the weekend Mug of covering reaction to the Gregg Zaun deal. Here are a few more nuggets on Zaun I spotted this morning:

Adam McCalvy tweeted that Zaun's deal includes $600,000 in incentives tied to games started, which could push the total guaranteed value up to $2.75 million if Ken Macha is unwilling to let one of the young guys play.
Fire Doug Melvin is not excited about the decision to guarantee Zaun the starting job.

The Zaun move inspired Casa de Machado to throw in the towel for 2010, complete with this quote:

I think are chances in 2010 are slim to none.

It's like this picture and The Iron Sheik's Twitter all rolled in to one. (h/t to the Former Hacks for the Sheik link)

I know at least some of you attended the Brewer Clubhouse Sale over the weekend. Did you find anything good? Did you show up in this WISN story?

Just one transaction note today:

Indians: Signed former Twin Brian Buscher to a minor league deal.

Some free agent deals might get done at the Winter Meetings this week, but don't expect John Lackey to be one of them: Lackey is believed to be seeking $17 million+ per year for at least six years, and it'll take some time for his price to fall back into a range that isn't laughable.

Six years and $102 million would probably earn Lackey honorable mention on Big League Stew's list of the worst ten contracts of the 2000s. Click that link if you'd like to feel better about the Brewer tenure of Doug Melvin: All ten contracts mentioned are clearly worse than Jeff Suppan's deal.

Looking for a buy-low rotation candidate? Diamond Notes mentions the Dodgers are expected to have interest in Chien-Ming Wang, when/if the Yankees announce their decision to non-tender him for next season. Assuming the price is right, one would think the Brewers might be interested too.

Speaking of the Dodgers, they're continuing to cut costs by attempting to deal George Sherrill.

On this day in 2005, the Brewers traded Lyle Overbay (along with Ty Taubenheim) to the Blue Jays for David Bush, Gabe Gross and Zach Jackson, clearing the way for Prince Fielder to take over at first base in 2006. Overbay has hit .275/.356/.449 over four seasons as a Blue Jay.

On this day in 2007, the Brewers acquired Salomon Torres from the Pirates for two minor leaguers. Torres posted a 3.49 ERA and saved 28 games for the 2008 Brewers.

Happy birthday today to Jim Austin, who posted a 3.06 ERA while making 83 relief appearances as a Brewer between 1991 and 1993, and turns 46.

Oh, and it looks like winter is now upon us, so it may be time to bust out the solar powered hat and gloves. Or just stay home and watch the Pride and Prejudice with Zombies miniseries. (h/t C. Trent Rosecrans)

Drink up.

Could the Pirates Lose 110 Games in 2010?

Charlie — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 21:50:23 -0000

More photos » by Alan Diaz - AP

A thought experiment: Brandon Moss may be bad, but if he starts the season hitting .100, is he really a .100 hitter?

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That this post even needs to be written speaks volumes about where the Pirates are right now. But despite the Bucs' spectacular collapse since the trades, I think it's far too early to worry, as many of you have, about losing 110 games next year. It's true that the Pirates' play over the last month would put them on pace for far worse than a 110-loss season. But that doesn't mean a 110-loss season will actually happen. A 110-loss team would be among the worst teams in modern baseball history. In the last 40 years, only two teams, the 2003 Tigers and the 2004 Diamondbacks, have lost as many as 110 games in a season, which means that if the Pirates lost 110, they would have to be considered one of the worst teams in modern baseball history. I think there is plenty of evidence that shows that they are bad. I don't think there is nearly enough to show that they are historically bad.

The irony here is that, way back in 2007, I myself was pointing out that the 2010 Pirates were going to be spectacularly bad. I even suggested what some of you are now saying--that they could lose 110 games. Most of the core players on that 2007 team--Jason Bay, Adam LaRoche, Freddy Sanchez, Jose Castillo, Xavier Nady, Salomon Torres--were scheduled to become free agents after 2009, and Jack Wilson had an expensive 2010 option. In addition, they had one of the worst general managers in the history of baseball at the helm and next to nothing in the farm system. That the Bucs would be quite awful in 2010 has been obvious for a long time now, and frankly Neal Huntington bears very little responsibility for it. In 2007, it looked like a perfect storm of a terrible big-league team, no prospects and inept management was brewing, and I think it was maybe only a little hyperbolic to write that a 110-loss campaign in 2010 was likely.

The reason I don't think it's likely now is that Huntington has taken enough steps to improve the 2010 situation that I think we can remove "historically bad" from the set of likely possibilities for now.

I realize that's a counterintuitive conclusion, since clearly Huntington's eyes are set at a point well beyond 2010 and the Bucs aren't playing very well right now. But without Huntington there would be no Ross Ohlendorf or Daniel McCutchen, who were acquired in the Nady deal. There would be no Charlie Morton, since the Pirates under Littlefield would not allow Nate McLouth to start and therefore to acquire value on the trade market. It's quite possible Littlefield would have started Nyjer Morgan in 2009, but back in mid-2007 his breakout would have been extremely hard to foresee (since Morgan hadn't even made his major league debut at that point), and trading him for Lastings Milledge and Joel Hanrahan would have been even harder to foresee. Without Huntington the Pirates probably still would have had Ian Snell, but they wouldn't have Ronny Cedeno or Jeff Clement. Those guys--Ohlendorf, Morton, Milledge, Hanrahan, Cedeno, Clement--are all major league players. Maybe not great ones, in some cases, but certainly useful ones, and one characteristic of 110-loss teams is that they have very few useful players.

Also, a number of decent prospects--Pedro Alvarez, Jose Tabata, Brad Lincoln, Chase D'Arnaud, Rudy Owens, Ron Uviedo, Jeff Locke, Tim Alderson--will be either in the high minors or on the verge of arriving there. That may sound like a trivial point, but actually it isn't. 110-loss seasons can be avoided simply by having a storehouse of players who might be able to fill in competently.

Now, maybe Littlefield would have traded Bay and some of the other core players, too. I doubted that at the time, though, because doing so would have meant admitting that he basically had nothing after five or six years on the job, and because he was basically acting like 2010 did not exist, as if the Pirates would be contracted before the season started. That was my reason for thinking 110 losses was possible then. Now it appears that Huntington is at least aware that the Pirates will be playing baseball next season. That might not mean much, but it's something.

The most critical point here, though, is that losing 110 games is spectacularly difficult to do. It requires either extreme negligence or a combination of negligence and bad luck. Merely being a very poor team, which I agree the Pirates probably will be, simply does not get the job done. Let's take the two teams that lost 110, for example.

The 2004 Diamondbacks reached 110 losses through both negligence and luck. Not only did they have the worst offense in the league--an outcome that is surely also a possibility for the 2010 Pirates--but they really had no starting rotation after Randy Johnson (who was brilliant) and Brandon Webb. The five pitchers who had the most starts for them were Casey Fossum, Steve Sparks, Casey Daigle, Edgar Gonzalez, and Lance Cormier, and all of those guys had ERAs over six. Arizona finished 27th in the majors in ERA, and one of the three teams that fared worse was the Rockies. And the Diamondbacks still only got to 110 through bad luck--their Pythagorean record was "only" 54-108.

The 2010 Bucs really don't even belong in the same conversation with the '03 Tigers, who lost 119 games. The Tigers only had one pitcher throw more than 20 innings with an ERA below 4.50; the '09 Pirates, by comparison, have seven pitchers currently in their organization who have done that this year. The Tigers basically had one good hitter (Dmitri Young), and the lower part of their lineup and their bench were filled with guys (Brandon Inge, Warren Morris, Ramon Santiago, Shane Halter, Gene Kingsale, Omar Infante, Matt Walbeck, Andres Torres) who just didn't belong in the majors. It wasn't a case of a team merely being bad; it was a case of a team simply not taking the steps necessary to ensure that there was a real team on the field.

When I say that the Pirates are unlikely to lose 110 games next year, I'm not paying the Pirates a compliment. I'm just saying these 110-loss prognostications are the result of either over-the-top despair about the Bucs' recent play, or a misunderstanding about how incredibly hard it actually is to lose 110.

Another possibility is that people think you can extrapolate the Bucs' play the last couple months over the course of an entire season. You can't. By way of example, let's look at Brandon Moss. Let's say he's the Bucs' fourth outfielder next year and he starts the season 6-for-60, for a batting average of .100.

Now, we would be perfectly justified to say that Moss is terrible. We already would have been thinking that Moss is pretty terrible, given the way he hit in 2009. And then he went and started 2010 6-for-60. Ugh! Terrible.

But would be justified to say that he will continue to bat .100? Well, no. True, he already batted .100 in his first 60 at bats, but hitting .100 over the long haul is especially hard to do. First of all, we have to consider that Brandon Moss has, at various points, done things that suggest he can be much better than a .100 hitter. For example, in 2009 he's batting .241. Not very good, but way better than .100. Also, he made his way through the minors and got all the way to the big leagues, even briefly joining a good team, the Boston Red Sox. He has some skill, and players with some skill can usually hit better than .100. Even Mario Mendoza hit .215 for his career.

So we'd be justified to be annoyed at Moss' poor start. We'd also be justified to factor that poor start into our guesses about what he might do going forward. But it wouldn't make much sense to predict he'll be a .100 hitter.

Guessing the 2010 Bucs will lose 110 games is like that. Yes, they've been extremely bad since the trades. But they have three downright functional starting pitchers in Ohlendorf, Zach Duke and Paul Maholm, plus Morton, who easily could make his way into that category next year. They have Andrew McCutchen, who's a plain old good player. They have Garrett Jones who, while due for some serious regression next year, has probably staked a pretty reasonable claim that he's at least going to be useful. They have Ryan Doumit, who in 2008 was a force as an offensively-minded catcher. They have Milledge and Hanrahan, who have shown promise since arriving. They have guys like Ronny Cedeno, Andy LaRoche and Jason Jaramillo who, while they're not exactly inspiring, have shown they at least belong in the majors. There's also at least a reasonable chance that Pedro Alvarez is going to burst onto the scene at some point next season and go nuts.

I'm not saying that's much. It isn't. I'm saying it doesn't take much to avoid 110 losses, and that while anything's possible, I think the Pirates have what it takes. Don't take that as wild-eyed optimism, because again, it isn't. I'm only saying that I think the Pirates can avoid a complete disaster season, and the fact that they've actually been a disaster since the trades doesn't really change that.

Injuries Multiply, But Fukudome Helps Lead Cub Remnants Over Cardinals 10-3

Al — Sun, 26 Apr 2009 21:14:50 -0000

More photos » by Tom Gannam - AP

A scary moment for Sori. Fortunately, he seems to have suffered no serious injury from being hit in the head by Todd Wellemeyer on Sunday.

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By the time Derrek Lee left the game in the bottom of the first inning with what was described by Len & Bob as a "neck strain", the Cubs were down to one healthy reserve position player -- Koyie Hill, who eventually did get into the game on a double switch and singled in his first at-bat in 13 days.

But the star of today's 10-3 Cubs blowout of the Cardinals was Kosuke Fukudome, who celebrated his 32nd birthday by going 3-for-4 with a pair of runs scored, his fourth homer of the year and 5 RBI.

Who says the Cubs can't step up when it's most needed? Rich Harden made only a couple of mistakes, both hit for solo homers (if you have to give them up, best with no one on base) and he struck out nine, giving him 37 strikeouts in 21 innings so far this season -- tying him with Johan Santana for the major league lead, despite throwing four fewer innings than Santana.

The Cubs took it right to Todd Wellemeyer in the first inning; the first four Cubs reached base, including D-Lee with a RBI double before he had to leave the game. It appears, as of now, that (like virtually the entire team, it seems) he's day-to-day. Fortunately, word is that Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Marmol could return as soon as tomorrow in Arizona, which would be good news for the offense. That offense could have suffered another blow when Alfonso Soriano was hit in the head by Wellemeyer in the second inning in a play that was eerily reminiscent of the beaning that Sammy Sosa took from Pittsburgh's Salomon Torres almost exactly six years ago, on April 20, 2003. Soriano stayed in the game and later doubled off Wellemeyer and also made several defensive plays with the traditional hop, so he appears to be fine.

Micah Hoffpauir, who subbed for Lee, slammed his second homer of the season off reliever P. J. Walters (wasn't he supposed to be in the Cardinals' rotation?), and Aaron Miles had three hits, raising his average up to the Mendoza Line at .200. All told the Cubs had 14 hits, five for extra bases.

If you are still on the ledge and are in need a couple of bad things to worry about, they're the same things the rest of us have been worrying about -- Joey Gathright pinch-hit and looked bad again, striking out, and Neal Cotts still can't throw strikes, issuing another walk which resulted in the Cardinals' third run (when Lou came out to talk to him while he was facing his first hitter, it appeared to be another "throw freakin' strikes" visit). I wouldn't be surprised if Jason Waddell replaces Cotts soon, maybe even before the series at Arizona.

For the rest of us, think about this: the Cubs denied the Cardinals, the hottest team in the NL, a perfect homestand and have split six games with them so far this season. St. Louis just swept the Mets, who are supposed to be a force in the NL East this year. For a depleted Cub team to play this well and win, I think bodes well for the Arizona series, and it ought to be a pleasant flight for the team this evening to Phoenix. And for me, be happy too. Between batters and innings, I finished both crossword puzzles in the Sunday Tribune magazine. Who says print is dead?

Revisiting the Salomon Torres Trade

Charlie — Wed, 25 Feb 2009 19:32:47 -0000

The Post-Gazette has a blog entry about the Salomon Torres trade today. That trade, which brought pitchers Marino Salas and Kevin Roberts to the organization, looks like a bad one now, but I'm not sure what we can learn from it.

As I've said before, trades should be judged based on the information available when they were made. At the time of the trade, Torres was a 35-year-old reliever with injury and conditioning issues who'd posted a 5.47 ERA in 2007. His peripherals that year indicated his ERA should have been slightly better, but it was still an awful season, and when a 35-year-old reliever has an awful season, he's usually done. Torres himself seemed to think that might be a possibility--he considered retiring rather than reporting to the Brewers. A 67-win team needs a pitcher like the one Torres was after 2007 like a fish needs a bicycle.

So the Pirates swapped him for two live arms in Salas and Roberts. While minor league relievers usually aren't worth getting excited about, the Pirates needed pitching depth badly at the time, and they weren't giving up much. Salas and Roberts didn't work out--Salas pitched well in the minors but flopped for the Pirates, and Roberts stunk at Class AA Altoona, although he pitched better at Class A+ Lynchburg. At the time of the trade, the chances that either Salas or Roberts would contribute much in the big leagues were small, but those chances are still often worth taking, because if a reliever can come through the minors and be a valuable contributor in the bigs, he can be controlled very cheaply for several years.

I didn't like the trade at the time, because I didn't feel that the Pirates got quite enough back. But shipping Torres off for young players was the right idea, and it was a reasonable trade that might well have paid dividends.

Tuesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Tue, 10 Feb 2009 14:28:12 -0000

Some things to read while watching your figure.

It appears Braden Looper has agreed to terms. Adam McCalvy picked a pretty good first day to launch his MLB.com blog, as he almost immediately got to cover breaking news. News that Looper agreed to terms capped a long day of Looper coverage here as well, with a FanShot when the initial story broke, my in-depth analysis of his horoscope, jihad's look at Looper's pitching, and finally another FanShot when the deal was done.

Unfortunately, Looper signed too late to make the cut for a 2009 bobblehead. In the FanShots, John Brew has the list of bobbleheads this season. Waiting until August 30 to issue the Jeff Suppan bobblehead is a little risky...if he's posting a 5+ ERA at that point, it may not exactly be a source of excitement.

Speaking of Suppan, Baseball by Paul rated 154 starting pitchers for 2009, and Suppan comes in at 130. Carlos Villanueva, Dave Bush, Manny Parra and Yovani Gallardo check in at 101, 64, 41 and 25, respectively. Braden Looper somehow missed the list.

Meanwhile, Baseball Analysts has another cool graph, this time categorizing relief pitchers by ground ball and strikeout rates. Trevor Hoffman and Carlos Villanueva are on the right side of this one, with former Brewers Brian Shouse and Salomon Torres on the wrong side.

As the early predictions come out, it's becoming somewhat trendy to rate the Brewers low in the NL Central. The Recliner GM has the Brewers fifth in the division, although this was before the Looper signing.

The Wisconsin Timber Rattlers play their first home game as a Brewer affiliate on Thursday, April 9. The 2009 Timber Rattlers will likely feature Jake Odorizzi, Cody Scarpetta, Brett Lawrie and Cutter Dykstra, but if you needed another reason to go see them, they're giving away a double bobblehead featuring Bernie Brewer (complete with bizarre eyes) and Fang. So, if you're looking for something new that will creep you out while you're trying to sleep, here's your opportunity.

As I looked over the Baseball America minor league transactions this morning looking for former Brewers, I stumbled across a note on the Brewers signing a RHP named Heri Olivo. Baseball Reference doesn't have him listed, so it's officially a mystery.

Have you ever been to Helfaer Field, the youth baseball facility by Miller Park? Would you like to work there? The Brewers are hiring event staff for the facility.

On the hot stove:

A's: Signed reliever Edgar Gonzalez to a minor league deal.
Cardinals: Released Adam Kennedy, who had requested to be traded in 2008.
D-Backs: Could re-sign Juan Cruz.
Dodgers: Signed Jeff Weaver to a minor league deal.
Padres: Invited 20 players, including former Brewer prospect Will Inman, to spring training.
Reds: The team is cutting some front office jobs and is likely done spending in the wake of slow ticket sales for 2009.

Things could always be worse for Ben Sheets. Sure, he needs surgery and may not pitch at all in 2009, but Romanian handball star Marian Cozma, who looks a lot like Sheets, was stabbed to death in Hungary over the weekend.

The tie between Ben Sheets and a site tracking MLB injury histories is so obvious I don't even need to write a segue for it.

If you're a fan of the Three True Outcomes, you may want to turn away for a moment: Driveline Mechanics has a look at five players who put the ball in play more than any others. It's worth a read just for the flow chart on Dusty Baker's hitting philosophy. Also, "Russell Branyan and the Three True Outcomes" may be my next Rock Band creation.

Following the Brewers while living outside of Wisconsin can be a challenge, but it might get even tougher this season as Sirius-XM is considering dropping coverage of MLB games. That'd be the end of my subscription. (h/t Baseball Musings)

Oh, and Ichiro hit 92 on the gun while preparing to pitch in the WBC.

Drink up.

The Brewer Advent Calendar #21: Carlos Villanueva

KLSnow — Thu, 22 Jan 2009 18:00:08 -0000

It's time to open door #21 on our Brewer Advent Calendar...and behind it we find Carlos Villanueva!

via assets.sbnation.com

Villanueva has had cups of coffee as a starter each of the last two seasons, making nine starts in 2008 and six in 2007. Even with that time in the rotation, though, now that Salomon Torres, Eric Gagne, Guillermo Mota and Brian Shouse are all gone, Villanueva made more pitching appearances in 2008 than any other returning Brewer:

Brewer	2008 Appearances
Carlos Villanueva	47
David Riske	45
Seth McClung	37
Manny Parra	32
Jeff Suppan and Dave Bush	31

Monday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Mon, 29 Dec 2008 16:15:04 -0000

Some things to read while looking for new things to graph.

I guess this says a lot about how this offseason has gone: I've got about 50 links today after a week off, but nothing I felt was worth listing as the top story. Goat Riders of the Apocalypse and Dugout Central are both down on the Brewers' chances in 2009.

There are a couple of minor league signings to report: RHPs Chris Smith and Ryan Houston have been added to the fold, although both sound more likely to contribute in Nashville than Milwaukee.

So, pending a move, the Brewers' 2009 rotation will include Yovani Gallardo, Manny Parra, Dave Bush, Jeff Suppan and Seth McClung. The #6 option must be Chris Capuano, because Carlos Villanueva is reportedly not being considered. All of this gets a little easier if the Crew signs Braden Looper, of course.

So, due to the Elias rankings slotting Mark Teixiera ahead of CC Sabathia, the Brewers will now get the Yankees' second round pick, instead of the first rounder they should have received as compensation for the Yankees' signing Sabathia. As noted in the FanShots, Doug Melvin would like to see an update to the Elias formula that put Teix ahead of CC. Keith Law is with him.

Lost in all the debate about free agent rankings is this: The Yankees will give a first round pick to the Angels, a second round pick to the Brewers and a third round pick to the Blue Jays (for signing A.J. Burnett), but get to keep another first and third rounder they were given as compensation for failing to sign their top two picks in 2008. So the Brewers and Blue Jays would both be entitled to first round picks in a normal year, but instead the Yankees keep one. How is that fair?

Meanwhile, Mark Attanasio's comments about a salary cap have drawn a stern "Get off my lawn!" from Murray Chass.

The 2009 projections continue: jhmoore posted the Brewers' 2009 WAR projections in the FanShots.

I thought award season was over, but apparently it's not: Prince Fielder has been nominated for a Douchie. I'd go into more detail but I'd like to keep this blog somewhere in the PG range.

A few notes on former Brewers:

Salomon Torres is working to expand his network of training academies in the Dominican Republic.
Former Brewer manager Tom Trebelhorn will spend 2009 managing Salem-Keizer in the Northwest League (A).
Corey Koskie is hoping to play for Team Canada in the World Baseball Classic.
Former Brewer hitting coach Jim Skaalen will fill the same role for the A's next season.

According to the Dallas Morning News, the Rangers remain interested but have not made an offer to Ben Sheets...which I guess makes them the frontrunner to sign him?

Could the Brewers still be active in the closer market? In polling over at Birdland, only about 1% of voters think the Brewers will sign Brian Fuentes, but 21% think the Brewers could sign Jason Isringhausen. Also, Akinori Otsuka will work out for all 30 teams in January.

Elsewhere on the hot stove:

Astros: Have signed Clay Hensley to a minor league deal, and now appear to be done unless a shortstop comes along.
A's: Are reportedly talking to Jason Giambi, Garret Anderson and Bobby Abreu.
Giants: Signed Randy Johnson to a deal worth between $8 and $10.5 million, depending on incentives. (noted in FanPosts) They may now be looking to deal Jonathan Sanchez.
Marlins: Are not interested in Sammy Sosa.
Mets: Could still be pursuing both Oliver Perez and Derek Lowe.
Orioles: Have signed Mark Hendrickson, meaning they'll definitely be taller in 2009. Better is still open for debate.
Phillies: Signed Gary Majewski to a minor league deal.
Rangers: Aren't interested in Sosa either.
Red Sox: Have signed Brad Penny to a one-year deal worth $5 million, with up to $3 million in incentives available. They also signed Josh Bard.
Reds: Signed Willy Taveras to a two-year deal. Transaction Oracle projects his OPS+ at 66.

How lucky are the Brewers to have Bob Uecker? Consider these comments made by Reds broadcaster Marty Brennaman about Adam Dunn.

If you live in/near Milwaukee, you'll be able to get the MLB Network on Time Warner channel 122, and you'll be able to see Mitch Williams, Greg Amsinger, Jon Heyman and Barry Larkin. Still no word on whether or not I'll get it in Des Moines, but I'll likely be putting a dish on my roof soon if I can't.

Would baseball still be as popular if games weren't played on Sundays? Seamheads has the story about the debate on banning Sunday baseball in Milwaukee in 1898.

Oh, and you probably couldn't afford to buy the auctioned seat in the US Senate, but you might be able to afford the Senate seats in Peoria.

Drink up.

Friday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Fri, 28 Nov 2008 15:59:30 -0000

Some things to read while making excuses for not doing anything today.

We open today with a Sabathia Smorgasbord:

Ken Davidoff, via MLB Trade Rumors, reports the Yankees might be willing to raise their offer to $150 million over six seasons if another team, like the Angels, offers Sabathia $130 million.
Rob Neyer says replacing Jon Garland with Sabathia would make the Angels 3-4 wins better next season, which doesn't sound like much but becomes more relevant when you realize the 2008 Angels already won 100 games. And if Jon Garland is as bad as projected in 2009, the difference is even bigger.
Everyone loves CC. Absolutely everyone. Not only is he friends with LeBron James, Mike Cameron and Nick Swisher, but Buster Olney says his best friend in baseball is David Riske.
Sabathia's midseason acquisition and the jersey rush that followed are probably a big part of the reason the Brewers sold more named jerseys than any other team in 2008.
FanGraphs says Sabathia had the single greatest pitching performance in 2008. (Ben Sheets had the second best.)
Kenny Doyle of Dugout Central says the Braves need CC Sabathia...because he's black. I tend to think he's valuable for reasons that extend beyond his skin color.
Over 10,000 people have voted, and so far the Yankees hold a slight edge in Ken Rosenthal's poll on CC Sabathia's destination.
Sabathia was second on The Brew Town Beat's Top Ten List of things to be thankful for.
Sabathia also made Big League Stew's list of 101 things, along with Ryan Braun's nickname, Bob Uecker, and the food and tailgating at Miller Park.

Of course, there is other movement on the free agent market. These two pieces of news were so huge, for example, that the mainstream media just assumed you knew about them and passed by: Mel Stocker is a Mariner and Callix Crabbe might be too.

Since they haven't signed any Type A or B free agents (yet), the Brewers still project to draft 27th in the 2009 draft. With two Type A free agents (Sabathia and Sheets) still out there, they stand to pick up several extra early picks.

Here's a mishmash of one sentence notes falling under the heading of "bullpen:"

The Rockies are reportedly targeting Brian Shouse.
Seth McClung made the final four candidates in FanGraphs' search for 2009's best mop up pitcher.
Salomon Torres hasn't officially retired yet. He still needs to turn in the paperwork.

Baseball Musings takes a look at how defense affected pitchers in 2008. Sabathia, Ben Sheets and Dave Bush were helped the most by the Brewer defense, while Carlos Villanueva was the only Brewer to be hurt by it.

While I'm on the subject of defense: I know fielding percentages and error counts are not the only or the best way to measure defensive ability, but Vinny Rottino, Brendan Katin and Tony Gwynn were all among the bottom of AAA in terms of fielding percentage and among the leaders in errors. Just saying.

I hope everyone remembered yesterday to be thankful for R.J. Swindle. He's Canadian, so his Thanksgiving is actually the second Monday in October, but Independent Baseball Chatter says he has extra reason to be thankful this season anyway.

If Balking Traditionalism's 2009 pitching projections are accurate, we may not have as much Brewer success to be thankful for at this time next year.

Rowland's Office thinks the Braves are making a mistake pursuing A.J. Burnett if the price is five years, $75 million, comparing Burnett to Pete Harnisch. He thinks the Braves should pursue Ben Sheets instead.

And if free agent pitching is too expensive for you, Baseball Analysts takes a look at some pitchers available in the Rule 5 Draft.

I didn't collect as many hot stove links as I normally do today, but here are a few:

Braves: Mike Hampton is reportedly shopping for a one year deal, but wants a straight salary, not an incentive-based deal. I can't believe I'm saying this, but on a one year deal he might be worthy of consideration.
Mets: The team is likely just posturing, but has publicly stated Brian Fuentes' request for a 3 year, $30-$33 million deal seems "a bit high."
Phillies: Matt Stairs is most likely the only current major leaguer spending the offseason coaching high school hockey in Maine.

So, if you're reading the Mug this morning, it's probably safe to assume you skipped the long lines and insanity of Black Friday shopping. If you did, and you're still looking for gifts, might I suggest a shiny new Wisconsin Timber Rattler hat? I'd wear one.

Finally, I've made a point of keeping my work and this blog separate for most of my tenure here, but today it's for a good cause so I'll break the rule. I've been ring announcing pro wrestling shows for 3XWrestling in Des Moines for the last 2 1/2 years, and tonight we have a show in Des Moines as a toy drive for Toys for Tots. If you're located somewhere near Des Moines and looking for something to do tonight, c'mon out with a new, unopened toy and help support a great cause. Even if you're not near Des Moines, Toys for Tots is a great cause to support, as is Child's Play, which is helping two hospitals in Wisconsin this year.

Drink up.

Friday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 15:07:31 -0000

Some things to read while waiting to see The Fort Wayne Tin Caps' new uniforms. Spoiler alert: The team will most likely not wear tin caps.

It's quiet this morning, but it likely won't stay that way for long as today is the first day teams can offer contracts to free agents from other teams. Brewed Sports wants the Brewers to make an early splash by signing Kerry Wood and Randy Johnson. Tyler Maas of Bugs & Cranks wants the Brewers to sign Eric Hinske. I'm just hoping the Brewers don't sign anyone who will join Eric Gagne, Jeff Suppan and Jeffrey Hammonds on a future version of this top ten list of worst contracts in Wisconsin sports history.

Baseball Digest Daily released their free agent rankings today. Since lists make a short Mug seem longer, here are the Brewer highlights:

CC Sabathia is the top rated starting pitcher.
Ben Sheets is the third rated starting pitcher.
Russell Branyan is ranked third among third basemen.
Ray Durham is ranked fourth among second basemen.
Brian Shouse is the fifth rated lefty reliever.
Mike Lamb is ranked fifth among third basemen.
Gabe Kapler is ranked sixth among right fielders.
Guillermo Mota is the sixth rated "utility reliever."
Eric Gagne is the eighth rated closer.
Craig Counsell is ranked eleventh among shortstops.

Depending on who you ask, the Mets may or may not make a play for CC Sabathia. MetsBlog downplays the possibility.

Technically, Salomon Torres could have been a free agent as well, but the Brewers exercised his option so he will be under team control if he decides to return. The Official Site has an overview of the bullpen situation.

As noted in the FanShots, Ryan Braun became the eighth Brewer in franchise history to win a Silver Slugger Award yesterday.

If Braun lives up to his Bill James projection for 2009, he might win another one: .301/.364/.620. Bill James projections for individual players are available on the player pages at FanGraphs. If you want the whole collection, you're supposed to buy the book. I sat down yesterday with a notepad file and Baseball Musings' Lineup Analysis tool and discovered that, despite low projections for Mike Cameron and Bill Hall, a 2009 Brewer lineup featuring Weeks, Hardy, Braun, Fielder, Hart, Cameron, Hall, Kendall and the pitcher's spot projects to 4.965 runs per game. The 2008 Brewers only scored 4.630.

While I'm on the subject of stats, R.J. Anderson of Beyond the Box Score is working on numbers to quantify the volume of wins or losses added by a manager. His initial numbers have management costing the Brewers approximately .04 wins in 2008. I'm pretty sure Yost was responsible for more than that.

Does the entire Brewers' organization have defensive problems? No less than five Brewer prospects appear on Recondite Baseball's leaderboards for errors in the minor leagues this season.

Two trades were completed yesterday, one sending Nick Swisher to the Yankees and one sending Kevin Gregg to the Cubs. Two other stove notes today:

D-Backs: Negotiations with Randy Johnson have apparently hit an impasse, leading Johnson to declare free agency.
Marlins: The team is reportedly listening to offers but not actively seeking a trade involving Jeremy Hermida or Dan Uggla.

Do you love physics and want to use it to understand why a sidearmer's pitches have different movement? It's a bit much for me, but maybe Matt Lentzner of The Hardball Times' article is just what you were looking for.

Oh, and NL Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum is perpetuating the theory that he's only 15 by spending the offseason getting braces and a puppy.

Drink up.

The 2009 Bullpen - What are we starting with?

KLSnow — Thu, 13 Nov 2008 18:00:07 -0000

So, barring a change of plans, Salomon Torres is gone and the Brewers are not planning to pursue a high-profile free agent reliever like Francisco Rodriguez or Brian Fuentes.

Salomon Torres, who saved 28 games for the Crew last season, retired yesterday. Brian Shouse, Eric Gagne and Guillermo Mota are free agents and might not be back.

Assuming Doug Melvin's comments linked above mean he also won't want to risk big money on Kerry Wood, Japanese import Koji Uehara or Trevor Hoffman, that might mean the Brewers are headed into 2009 with a bullpen that's tweaked around the edges, if it gets modified at all. Let's take a look at what that might mean for the Brewers in 2009:

CANDIDATES FOR CLOSER:

Seth McClung: I'm not sure if all Brewer fans love Seth McClung or if the infatuation is limited to this corner of the internet. But when Grant Balfour was 0-2 with a 20.25 ERA in his first three outings as a Brewer, if Doug Melvin had publicly said, "I'm going to flip him to Tampa for a guy that'll throw 105 slightly above average innings next season," we might have thrown the Mustache a parade. McClung has the stuff to make hitters look overmatched when he's on. If he's not needed in the rotation, he might be the best fit to close.

2008, as a reliever: 25 G, 41.2 IP, 3.67 ERA, 26 BB, 37 K
Career, as a reliever: 87 G, 109.1 IP, 5.19 ERA, 80 BB, 93 K

Carlos Villanueva: Got an opportunity to start in 2008, but did not perform well. When reverted to the bullpen he showed improvement the rest of the way. Villy has said in the past that he'd prefer to start, but he's much more valuable to the Crew in the bullpen, and one would suspect that getting high profile innings as the closer of a good team might be exciting for him too.

2008, as a reliever: 38 G, 59.1 IP, 2.12 ERA, 14 BB, 62 K
Career, as a reliever: 95 G, 155.2 IP, 3.58 ERA, 52 BB, 149 K

David Riske: After getting a long-term deal after the 2007 season, Riske had an injury riddled and ineffective 2008 season that I'm sure most of you will remember. A lot can change in a year...a year ago at this time we were talking about David Riske as the setup man for Derrick Turnbow. 2008 aside, though, Riske had been very consistent throughout most of his eight year career before coming to Milwaukee, posting an ERA+ over 115 in six of his last seven seasons, over 190 in three of the same seven. If he comes into spring training healthy, he could be ready to bounce back in a big way.

2008, as a reliever: 45 G, 42.1 IP, 5.31 ERA, 25 BB, 27 K
Career, as a reliever: 438 G, 473.1 IP, 3.57 ERA, 204 BB, 425 K

OTHERS THAT WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE:

Mitch Stetter: As things stand right now, he's the only lefty I see with a guaranteed spot in the bullpen, and even that guarantee isn't 100%. I don't think one can hope for Stetter to be as effective as Shouse was, but if Shouse returns, having Stetter and Shouse in the bullpen could give Ken Macha lots of opportunity to play matchups late in games. Stetter's walk numbers from 2008 are inflated by three outings in May where he was left out to hang and walked 8 batters in an inning.

2008, as a reliever: 30 G, 25.1 IP, 3.20 ERA, 19 BB, 31 K
Career, as a reliever: 36 G, 30.1 IP, 3.26 ERA, 21 BB, 35 K

Tim Dillard: The Brewers didn't use Tim Dillard a lot in 2008 (just 14.1 innings), and they didn't use him often in wins (3-10 record in his appearances), but when they did use him he didn't embarrass himself. Dillard led off his big league career with five scoreless outings where he only allowed one hit and two walks in 5.2 innings, and he only had one outing all season where he gave up more than one earned run. Not once in my life have I said "Oh good, Tim Dillard's coming in." But with that said, he was only slightly below league average (ERA+ of 98) in his games this season, and if the Brewers released him he could be on about 15-20 teams' rosters on Opening Day.

2008 (and career) as a reliever: 13 G, 14.1 IP, 4.40 ERA, 6 BB, 5 K

Todd Coffey: Seemingly an afterthought when Doug Melvin picked him up, Coffey threw 7.1 scoreless innings over nine appearances as a Brewer in 2008, dropping his 2008 ERA from 6.05 as a Red to 4.39 overall, which is close to his career mark of 4.46. For some reason, I thought he was much older: Coffey turned 28 in September. He's had two above average and two below average seasons in his career, but even the below average seasons were disappointments, not implosions. He can contribute to a staff somewhere, if not in Milwaukee.

2008 as a reliever: 26 G, 26.2 IP, 4.39 ERA, 8 BB, 15 K
Career as a reliever: 222 G, 213.2 IP, 4.46 ERA, 65 BB, 144 K

Mark DiFelice: DiFelice made his big league debut at age 31 in May, and his debut didn't suggest he'd stay long: DiFelice gave up three runs on five hits in an inning in one of the losses during the Brewers' disastrous sweep in Boston that was supposed to cost Ned Yost his job. After that, all DiFelice did was post a 1.50 ERA in 18 innings over his next 14 appearances. Like Dillard, he didn't pitch in a lot of Brewer wins (the team was 4-11 in his appearances), but he pitched effectively when called upon. And while he made his debut at 31 and turned 32 in August, he's still likely got a few seasons in the tank, if not more.

2008 (and career) as a reliever: 15 G, 19 IP, 2.84 ERA, 4 BB, 20 K

OTHERS THAT COULD BE CALLED UPON:

It's worth noting that at this point, without re-signing Shouse, Gagne or Mota, without Torres unretiring and without any free agent additions to the bullpen, the Brewers have 7 relievers and, assuming a five-man rotation, 12 pitchers overall. But if they need more, these guys are waiting for a shot:

Joe Bateman: A 28-year-old righty, Bateman tripped somewhere on the ladder to the big leagues and spent 2 years in AA with the Giants before splitting this season between AA and AAA with the Brewers, despite the fact that he's posted an ERA under 3 each of the last two seasons and posted a 1.60 ERA in 33.2 innings in half a season in Nashville in 2008. He's struck out 200 and only walked 66 over 175.2 innings over the last three seasons. This winter, he's pitching for Este in the Dominican Winter League, and is 3-0 with a 3.21 ERA in 14 innings.

Chris Narveson: Last spring, he didn't miss making the Brewer roster by all that much, and made Doug Melvin comfortable enough to cut the cord on Claudio Vargas. Narveson will come into camp at 27 years old and, despite having a disappointing season in AAA (6-13, 5.43 ERA in 136 innings, primarily as a starter), he could get a shot to reinvent himself as a lefty who throws strikes out of the bullpen. Narveson has walked just 168 hitters over his last 406.2 innings over four seasons in AAA, and struck out 311 in that time. And did I mention he's left handed? Narveson is spending the winter pitching for Hermosillo in Mexico, where he recently picked up his second straight win, and is 2-2 with a 3.67 ERA in 34.1 innings (6 starts).

Luis Pena: In 2007, Pena climbed the ladder quickly, going 5-4 with a 2.63 ERA and 18 saves between Brevard County and Huntsville and earning himself a promotion to Nashville for 2008. He struggled with the Pacific Coast League, though, going 2-3 with a 6.93 ERA in 49.1 innings in 2008. Pena's meteoric rise in 2007 followed two seasons with an ERA over 4 in Brevard County, so it's possible his 2007 season was an aberration and not a trend. But it's also possible he could put it back together in 2008 and emerge as a contributor. He's spending the winter pitching for La Guaira in Venezuela, but has only appeared in three of the team's 23 games.

Sam Narron: Stop me if you've heard this one before: Narron is a 27-year-old lefty who has taken a little longer to develop than expected. He had a meteoric rise through the Rangers' organization, culminating in a 2004 season in which he went 6-0 in AA, 8-2 in AAA and made one start for the Rangers. After the season, the Brewers picked him up off waivers and Tommy John surgery cost him the entire 2005 season. Narron has worked his way back up the ladder and spent much of 2008 in AAA, where he struggled a bit to adjust and posted a 4.80 ERA in 120 innings. Like Joe Bateman, Narron is pitching for Este in the Dominican Winter League (Narron is starting, Bateman is relieving). So far he hasn't had much success in winter ball, going 0-3 with a 7.82 ERA in 12.2 innings, but again: he's still only 27, and he's lefthanded.

With those four, the Brewers will bring 11 potential bullpen arms to spring training, plus any free agents they may sign or re-sign. I don't think this bullpen is going to be as bad as some are saying it will be. What do you think?