SB Nation - Jeff Keppinger

Are Ed Wade and Brian Cashman on the same page?

DyingQuail — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 00:48:00 -0000

More photos » by Billy Smith II - AP

This is the face of a man who knows he still has two more years to phone it in.

A lot has been made today of the importance of Javier Vazquez's contract. Vazquez comes to the Yanks at one year and $11.5 million dollars. Thus, many have speculated that all signs point to the fact that Yankees' GM, Brian Cashman, is setting himself up to shed payroll at a time when a bountiful crop of FA talent opens up on the market and Cashman can open up the Steinbrener's coffers. Think Joe Mauer catching Sabathia and Burnett, while batting in front of, behind—or whatever—of A-Rod and Teixeria. And that just would be the tip of the iceberg.

A lot has been said of the saviness of the Vazquez trade for Cashman precisely because of this (also because: how in the hell do you trade away the league leader in xFIP, who only makes $11.5 million, for Melky Cabrera?). Savvy moves by a GM. That's really not something I have heard said of a Houston GM in a long time.

Seriously, think about our signings.

Even the ones that turned out well were ridiculued at the time. Arbtration decisions? Caustic reactions. Last offseason? Splash signings of Jason Michaels, Ivan Rodriguez, and a trade that saw Drew Sutton depart for Jeff Keppinger. The year before? Kaz Matsui at three years and $16.5 million dollars. Don't forget the Miguel Tejada trade on the eve of the Mitchell report, or how much the Brad Lidge for Michael Bourn swap made your head explode throughout 2008. Even if the Valverde trade wasn't bad, by the time all was said and done, our farm system was pretty much desolate and people hated it. 2007? You have to love an offseason that sees Drayton McLane run Andy Pettitte out of town and bring in Carlos Lee and trade for Jason Jennings and sign Woody Williams to a two year deal on the basis of his ballpark enabled late-career-peak-season at Petco. 2006? Preston...ok, I'll stop.

The point is there hasn't been an offseason move, in awhile, in Houston that had a majority of pundits, fans, etc. all agreeing that a Houston Astros GM did something pretty savvy. This offseason has been no different. Painfully so, at times, actually.

But then, in the wake of the Vazquez for Cabrera hubub, it dawned on me: Ed Wade is stacking his chips up for 2013, just like Cashman is for 2011. The following players are off the books, if we want them to be, after 2012: everyone making anything meaningful in the way of salary. Carlos Lee, Brandon Lyon, Kaz Matsui, Roy Oswalt (could take a reduced buyout and walk away after 2011), Lance Berkman (technically his contract is out in 2011). Left on the books (hopefully, due to some "the time is ripe" extensions): Wandy Rodriguez, Hunter Pence, Jason Castro, Bud Norris, Feliepe Paulino, Wesley Wright, Sammy Gervacio, Chia Jen-Lo? Jordan Lyles? Jiovanni Meyer?! That entire combination costs what? $20-25 million to field? Throw in the likelihood of new ownership and there could easily be a $90 million pot of gold at the end of the hot stove rainbow.

I'm not trying to suggest that Wade should let Oswalt and Berkman walk away. In fact, he shouldn't. The point is, Wade came into Houston two years ago with no payroll flexibility and no farm system. In two years, Ed Wade could have an absurd about of payroll flexibility thanks to Bobby Heck, and co.'s farm system. All of this because Ed Wade hasn't signed anyone to a contract that impinges on the magical offseason of 2012.

That's right, there's method to the maddness...possibily.

Does that excuse the iffy of signings, or moves, that Wade has made? No. But Ed Wade won't be searching for guys on the fringe at that point. He'll targeting the top tier free agents. Whatever kind of analysis he's using at that point, it's hard to botch those (unless we through Prince Fielder a Carlos Lee type deal*). Depending on what happens in the next CBA, he probably won't even have to worry all the much about losing a ton of draft picks.

It's like a perfect storm. Ed Wade will get to put the garnishes on a team that he'll have worked for four years to make salvagable. The meat and potatoes will be the guys he's hung onto and the guys he's drafted. I'm almost ready to purchase my 2013 playoff tickets.

Of course, the problem with thesis that Ed Wade has been patiently playing the fool and/or just kind of screwing around for four years to set up a blockbust 2012 offseason has one flaw: it could be what the Mayan's were predicting would bring on the apocalypse. Can you imagine an entire slew of FanGraphs articles praising Ed Wade? Thinking about that possibility has more more convinced that the Mayans might have it right.

*I have no idea who exactly will and won't be in the 2012 Free Agent class, but Prince Fielder just fit the range and weight of the analogy I needed to make.

Heroes of the Zeros: Shortstop

Slyde — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 13:00:17 -0000

All of you people who have been saying, "Wow, this has to be the worst position ever," here's the list you've been waiting for. It's kind of funny that coming into the aughts, the Reds were riding basically 48 straight seasons with 4 starting SS, all of pretty good quality. Since then, well, not so much. Good luck finding a worthy starter in this list. I really have no idea who is going to win this one. Voting is after the jump.

Click header to sort table by column
	Years	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	wOBA	WAR
Juan Castro	2000-2008	571	1469	1361	130	323	70	6	25	125	76	244	.237	.276	.353	.628	61	.269	-4.6
Royce Clayton	2006	50	164	149	13	35	8	0	2	13	11	32	.235	.290	.329	.619	56	.274	-0.7
Travis Dawkins	2000-2002	45	99	89	7	15	4	0	0	3	8	28	.169	.237	.213	.451	17	.201	-0.8
Alex Gonzalez	2007-2009	178	700	636	71	158	39	1	19	81	39	111	.248	.299	.403	.702	79	.297	1.5
Wilton Guerrero	2001-2002	119	236	220	25	67	6	2	1	12	9	30	.305	.332	.364	.696	78	.302	-0.7
Jerry Hairston	2008-2009	166	637	568	94	163	38	3	14	63	44	82	.287	.342	.438	.780	103	.334	2.5
Paul Janish	2008-2009	128	381	336	41	69	23	0	2	22	33	58	.205	.290	.292	.582	54	.263	0.9
Jeff Keppinger	2007-2008	188	778	700	84	202	40	4	8	75	54	36	.289	.342	.391	.733	90	.318	1.1
Barry Larkin	2000-2004	473	1850	1646	266	456	106	11	30	167	175	184	.277	.347	.409	.757	95	.329	4.6
Felipe Lopez	2003-2006	371	1566	1384	215	367	73	10	41	159	157	317	.265	.340	.421	.761	97	.331	2.7
Ray Olmedo	2003-2006	171	388	352	39	81	12	2	2	25	24	72	.230	.280	.293	.573	52	.254	-2.3
Chris Sexton	2000	35	118	100	9	21	4	0	0	10	13	12	.210	.310	.250	.560	43	.258	-0.3

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/20/2009.

GM for the day: What would you do if Ed Wade handed you the key to the Astros?

DyingQuail — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 15:46:04 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

Before you can criticize a man, you have a to walk a mile in his shoes. Here's your chance to have free reign with Eddy in the future.

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We're pretty much at the first of two nadir's for the baseball offseason (is that possible in the logical sense?). This week and then those two of purgatory before pitchers and catchers report. So what better for us to do than do what we nerds of our mother's basement do than prognosticate about what'd we'd do if we were in charge. I mean, that is what a baseball blog's function is, in a sense; at least, that's what attracted to me this in the first place.

So imagine this scenario: Your cell phone goes off, and you don't recognize the 713 number that's calling you. Perplexed, but intrigued, you decide to pick it up. Lo and behold—it's Ed Wade. He's calling to tell you that he's been reading your posts/comments on this site and he thinks you'd be a great "top advisor," which he explains to essentially be relieving of his duties and taking over as GM. This doesn't mean you get to march into Drayton's office and start demanding money to work with, or that you'll have Billy Beane luck at making awesome trades come out of thin air, seemingly.

At this point, I'm sure that for most of us, the thrill of the moment has subsided as we realize: "Oh God D@^nit!, I really have to figure things out." But, we'd persevere. We persevere every day here in the comments section, so for sake of keeping the discussion interesting: Let's do it again.

None of us think about the team the same way, so all ideas are fair game—so long as the rules are followed.

The rules are fairly simple:

The most you can persuade Drayton into spending this offseason is $95 million.
If you propose a trade, that pieces have to match reality. This isn't fantasy baseball. This means Carlos Lee isn't going anywhere.
Arbitration decisions have to be made. That's both offers and amounts for Wandy Rodriguez, Hunter Pence, and Jeff Keppinger, plus whoever you realistically believe will accept from Jose Valverde, Miguel Tejada, and LaTroy Hawkins.

Go forth. Let your imaginations run wild.

The Astros most impressive performances in 2009: The hitters

DyingQuail — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 15:57:54 -0000

More photos » by Henny Ray Abrams - AP

Not the guy you're expecting to see with a post about "most impressive batting performance."

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This idea struck sometime in late August as I was watching, most likely, another Astros loss. I thought it would be a good idea so I randomly threw it onto Things for today.

The idea is pretty simple, what were the top three greatest performances that players put up during the season. Because I'm saber-slanted, I'm using WPA to quantify greatest. I've spent all morning clicking through every player's play log to find their highest WPA/play in order come up with the top three in hitting and pitching. Today is about the hitters, and the results will likely surprise you.

No. 1 - Kaz Matsui on September 5th

The man on the mound, a familiar Brad Lidge. The situation, down one in the bottom of the ninth, the bases juiced with two outs. What does Kaz do? He lines a 1B right field scoring JR Towles and Jason Michaels—the tying and the winning runs.

via www.fangraphs.com

Kazuo Matsui picks up a tidy .734 WPA on that one play. That's staggering. Of course, he's aided by the fact that the leverage situation was an insane 10.78, but he came through. That graph is ridiculous. Congrats, Kaz.

No. 2 - Miguel Tejada on September 9th

Compared to Kaz's ridiculous three-quarters of a win performance just four days earlier, Tejada's performance feels a little pedestrian. The real trajedy of this day, is that Lance Berkman gets squeaked out of the top three, even though were it not for him, Tejada doesn't make the list.

After Lance doubled to put runners at 2B and 3B, the Braves IBBed Carlos Lee to bring up Tejada, with one out (this reads like a terrible decision until you remember that it's Miguel "GIDP" Tejada at the plate). The result is that Tejada sends a ground ball to CF bringing in Kaz Matusi and Berkman to put the Astros on top 2-1.

via www.fangraphs.com

Tejada walks away with .471 WPA for his troubles and the number two performance.

No. 3 - Jeff Keppinger on August 27th

Top of the ninth. None on and two out. Astros tied 3-3 with the St. Louis Cardinals. Keppinger takes Kyle McClellan deep for a HR to put the Astros on top.

via www.fangraphs.com

Incidentally, Keppinger garners .421 WPA with the HR, but most importantly: Keppinger earns the highest isolated WPA performance of the season.

Keppinger's swing was just involved he and McClellan, where as Kaz and Miggy had the table set for them. I'm not saying that because they had their situations created by the play of players in front of them that they don't deserve credit for coming through with "clutch" hits, but with Keppinger, you don't have to wonder if more credit should be shifted to the table setters.

So, in your opinion....

Poll

What was the greatest batting performance by an Astro in 2009? (the choices are cryptic because you should read the post before you vote)

9/5

15 votes

9/9

3 votes

8/27

9 votes

Other - I'll explain in the comments

2 votes

29 votes | Poll has closed

With Miguel Tejada most likely on his way out, Tommy Manzella is in as Astros Shortstop in 2010

HighLeveragePerformer — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 17:47:09 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

Tommy Manzella and Michael Bourn would give the Astros one of the best defensive SS-CF combos in the NL Central

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Straight from Eddy Wade's mouth:

At this point, we’re prepared to commit to Tommy Manzella playing shortstop.

The possibility remains that Tejada could return as a third baseman.

Tommy Manzella grades anywhere from good to very good at shortstop. AstroAndy did a fine comparison between Manzella and former Astro Adam Everett a few months ago. Replacing this kind of defense with Manzella's defensive abilities at short would definitely be a boon.

As far as being able to retain Miguel Tejada as a third baseman, I don't know if that would be in the cards. His Bill James projection for 2010 is actually better in terms of runs created per game as compared to 2009. The million dollar-plus question will be if that production is worth spending X amount of dollars more on the veteran Tejada vs. some sort of platoon with Blum/Kepp/C. Johnson.

With Lance Berkman, Geoff Blum, Kaz Matsui and Jeff Keppinger already assured of spots on the club in 2010, Ed Wade will have decisions to make on which other infielders to bring in. It seems as if Tommy Manzella will play shorstop, as a trade or free agent signing isn't likely. While Chris Johnson has shown promise, don't look past Jeff Keppinger as a good option to be a starter on this team. He's not going to get David Wright AB's, but he is right at the peak of his career and is looked at as being a solid contributor in 2010. A fairly cheap contract makes him nearly as attractive as Johnson for the cost conscious Astros.

Bottom line, this was the first real indication of what changes we can expect in our 2010 Astros. For those who missed having a superb defensive shortstop, your wish looks like it may be coming true. Tommy Manzella will need time to adjust to major league hitting, but he has shown the ability to approach Everett's level offensively. That may not wow you, but remember that the cost is right with Manzella. Get used to hearing that sort of rationalization from the Astros camp. Keep in mind as well that Gio Mier is drawing rave reviews as the best defensive shortstop from the 2009 draft and his bat has been better than advertised so far as a professional. View Manzella however you want- a defensive savant, a stopgap, Adam Everett, 2.0. He makes the league minimum, and when your team is dominated by three player's salaries, those are the sort of trade offs a team must make.

As for Miguel Tejada, it doesn't appear that he will be back as an Astro, despite the door being left open for his return. He turned in a nice offensive season and as stated earlier is supposed to be even better in 2010. It's probable that another club gives him a shot at third, and does so with a contract whose value is close to eight figures per season. The Astros have three serviceable to slightly above serviceable options at third base, which leaves Tejada as the odd man out in my mind.

What should the Astros do with their shoe string budget?

DyingQuail — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 15:16:28 -0000

More photos » by Nick Wass - AP

Rich Hill is definitely my pick for sexy-under-the-radar reclamation project. He still has a few prime years in his tank and is a major head case, it seems. From we know of Arnsberg, that's right in his wheelhouse.

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The title is somewhat facetious. The Astros are guaranteed to spend around $80 million, as is, heading into 2010, but there should be another $10-15 million to allocate to filling the gaps. So where should Ed Wade and co. be focusing on allocating it?

In my mind, there are few options:

Find someone for 3rd base. Geoff Blum isn't getting any younger and Chris Johnson isn't getting any better at getting on base. Jeff Keppinger was great as a platoon there, but I think we can find a better option. This option could include re-signing Tejada and slotting him at 3rd, but I doubt that happens in the wake of the Blum re-signing. If we really wanted to go for it: Chone Figgins (probably a multi-year deal with at least $7-8 million on the table each year).
Sign LaTroy Hawkins back to have a strong depth for the likely closer by committee situation I can feel building. There are a few former closers who carry the label to which I'm sure Ed Wade is keen, and my Interesting rehab-esque-project of the bunch is Billy Wagner.
Sign a top-teir reclamation project for Arnsberg to get behind. Ben Sheets or Justin Duchscherer are probably the cream of that crop. Both are coming off years where they were DLed and in all honesty I don't know the exact status of either of the two, but if they could log 100-120IP for us in 2010 just think of the marginal gain. That's replacing Hampton or Ortiz' production for probably not a whole lot more in guaranteed money. Neither of those two are looking for multi-year deals. Instead, they're looking for a chance to audition for a year and then jump into the big deals they seemed primed for in 2008. My under the radar choice for Arnsberg to ply his trade with: Rich Hill (see photo caption for explanation...for the one other than LHP hominid).
Convince Drayton McLane that if he wants a decent on-field product, he's probably going to accept spending in the red. I don't think this is a hard argument to win. There's little to no fan excitement with this team—especially after a 10-22 last month-ish of the season. Unemployment is still up and while other macro-economic indicators are improved, they're not game changing. The odds that attendance collapses further if Drayton doesn't do something to generate excitement is roughly the equivalent of the odds that Drew Brees beats Jake Delhomme in TD passes this season. So the options Drayton has seem to be: lose money by nothing nothing, or spend just a little bit more money and increase your odds that you don't lose revenue.

If four were to happen, I could easily see us accomplish two and three. But I don't know how many different ways you can combine the options with the shoe string budget that rounds out payroll. Thus, the crux of our offseason seems to be what will the Astros brass deem our most important short coming as a baseball club. My hope is that they realize they likely have to pay a lot of attention to option three.

My in a perfect world of realitic limitations off season goes like this:

Rich Hill signs for no more than $3 million.
Hawkins re-signed, or some equivalent former closer for no more than $5 million. Wagner would be a sexy choice.
Bobby Crosby gets a crack at 3rd base for $5-6 million.

That's $13-14 million and I think it plugs some major holes. While still leaving some wiggle room for our "that guy still plays baseball?" corps of bench guys that Ed Wade plucks from the nether-regions of baseball.

Those are just my ideas, though. What say you?

Astros Roster Breakdown: The 2008 Offseason

davoag — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 13:00:23 -0000

by Pat Sullivan - AP

Look, waaay in the back...It's Ed Wade!

View full size photo »

Let's start the week off by looking at what the Astros did before and during the 2009 season. No major trades went down, nor were there any major signings. In fact, it sounds much like I'm sure this offseason will. Please give me your own take on the moves in the comments and what grade you'd give to Ed Wade for last season.

Move One: Signed Mike Hampton - The lefty Rob Lowe came at a bargain, earning 2 million dollars with 2 million in performance bonuses. I'm not sure if he met those, though. Hampton proved to be just what we thought he'd be: a little below league average and not very durable. For the money, though? You're not going to get much more.

Move Two: Signed Ivan Rodriguez - As a catcher with the Astros, it's fair to say Pudge failed. He started enough to break the record, but was pretty terrible when he did play. His OPS+ of 75 seemed to belie what fans saw on the field. It appeared that Pudge was having a meaningful impact on games, though his stat showed differently. Look at his splits in close and late situations, though: .359/.388/.406. Go even deeper, and you can see his numbers in high leverage situations: .280/.313/.320. Of course, this was offset by the fact that Rodriguez struck out all three times before getting to the late innings. He was a frustrating player, but his signing wasn't terrible, just ill-conceived.

Move Three: Signed Jason Michaels - Another guy who should have been better than he was. His career average of .269 should have made the Astros bench stronger, but Michaels couldn't put it together and struggled for much of the season. It also didn't help that he wasn't the best defensive replacement as a fourth outfielder. Still, who else were you going to get for 750K?

Move Four: Signed Russ Ortiz - With Hampton, he formed the "Let's Hope the Old Pitchers Can Revive With Us...Oh, Wait, HGH and Steroids are Banned...We're Screwed" duo. It's not the catchiest of names, but it is effective.

Move Five: Re-signed Doug Brocail - Doug was a pleasant surprise in 2008, but injuries derailed him last season. Who'd have predicted that the 42-year old reliever would have injury trouble? They're usually so reliable...Considering Brocail had injury trouble two years before, the Astros did well by stocking up on relievers with minor league deals, just in case. Was it 2.75 million well spent? Probably not.

Move Six: Re-signed LaTroy Hawkins - As I mentioned in my reliever rundown, Hawkins proved to be a reliable reliever for a second straight year. Whether this was due to the league he was in or to some sort of mechanical adjustment, the Astros have more than reaped the reward for a 3.5 million dollar contract.

Move Seven: Claimed Jeff Fulchino - Waiver claims like this show just good your advance scouts and major league scouts have to be. Fulchino provided a nice addition to the bullpen when Backe and Brocail both got hurt. Plus, Fulchino came much, much cheaper than either Hawkins, Valverde or Brocail. Oh, by the way, according to FanGraphs, he was also worth 3.4 million, which is more than all three of those relievers combined.

Move Eight: Signed Aaron Boone - I won't be glib here, since Boone had to go through too much this season. I respect the hell out of him for coming back and playing late in the season, but the Astros had to have wanted more out of him on the left side of the infield than they got. Still, here's hoping Boone continues to be in good health and can be a productive player, if he so chooses.

Midseason moves

Move Nine: Claimed Chris Coste - The former Phillie probably wishes he were in the World Series right now instead of the unemployment line. He should have been a lefty specialist off the bench, but hit worse against lefties than righties. Coste also didn't provide the pop the Astros needed when Berkman went down with an injury. Would they have been better served calling up Mark Saccomanno?

Move Ten: Traded away Ivan Rodriguez for Jose Vallejo and Matt Nevarez - This trade would have looked even better if the Rangers had made the playoffs and had to throw in another player. Still, the Astros basically paid 1.5 million for these two prospects. Not too shabby...

Move Eleven: Traded Drew Sutton for Jeff Keppinger - Boone's heart condition probably necessitated this trade to shore up the left side of the infield. As one of the commenters pointed out in the Mackanin post last week, Keppinger was only played at short after Mackanin put him there. Kepp did an okay job filling in for both Tejada and Blum. This trade happened before Chris Johnson broke his hand, but was certainly fortuitous. The Astros really didn't have anyone who could fill in for Blum on a regular basis.

Move Twelve: Claimed German Duran - This was a move for next season. We'll have to wait to see if Duran can contribute before passing judgement on it.

Overall, it was a mixed bag for GM Ed Wade. He made all the moves he could with no budget, tinkering around the margins and getting somewhat solid players. In both trades, it appears he got value, as Kepp is a good bench player and Drew Sutton didn't make much of an impact in Cincy, getting 66 big-league at-bats with an OPS+ of 68.

The Pudge signing was mandated by Drayton (I think), but give Wade credit for standing up to his owner enough to flip Rodriguez for some value. As disappointing as 2009 was in so many ways, Wade hasn't been among them. He's proven he can let Bobby Heck work his magic in the draft and can make those little moves that Gerry Hunsicker used to make so well.

Overall grade: B

Pirates Can't Learn Much From Phillies

Charlie — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 22:05:52 -0000

More photos » by Ross D. Franklin - AP

Philadelphia Phillies' Cole Hamels throws against the Arizona Diamondbacks, Tuesday, July 28, 2009, in Phoenix. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)

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John Mehno has the right idea in this Beaver County Times column about the differences between the Pirates and Phillies--it's not primarily about spending, it's about building by acquiring amateur talent. But while the technique of comparing some great Phillies draft picks (Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and so on) to picks the Pirates botched at similar points in their drafts is effective for an article written with a word count for a general audience, it doesn't quite tell the whole story.

The Phillies' case is really weird. If you look at their drafts under previous GM Ed Wade (that's basically the time frame described in the Beaver County article), it's very surprising they've been so successful. Working backwards, the best player they got in 2005 was current Athletics reliever Josh Outman; they also got current Reds reliever Matt Maloney. That was it. In 2004 they got J.A. Happ in the third round, Jason Jaramillo in the second, and Lou Marson in the fourth, but they also took Greg Golson as a dubious tools pick in the first round and got nothing in the later rounds. In 2003 they had no first- or second-round pick; they got Michael Bourn and Kyle Kendrick, and that was it.

In 2002 the Phils took Cole Hamels in the first round, which was obviously a great pick, but they got absolutely nothing else. In 2001, it was Gavin Floyd in the first round and Howard in the fifth, and absolutely nothing else. In 2000, they got Utley, Taylor Buchholz and nothing else. In 1999, it was Brett Myers, Marlon Byrd and nothing else. (They also drafted Joe Saunders, but didn't sign him.)

Now, maybe this doesn't sound too noteworthy to some of you. Maybe you think that if you get one good player out of a draft, that's great, and to a certain extent that's true. In this case, the results speak for themselves. But what's odd to me about the Phillies' drafts under Wade is how incredibly thin they were. Wade seemed to get a star player and almost nothing else every year for several seasons in a row. That's strange.

To see what I mean, let's take a look at Wade's first draft for the Phillies in 1998. He took Pat Burrell with the first overall pick (a bit of a no-brainer), but he also got several moderately useful players later on, such as Jason Michaels, Geoff Geary and Nick Punto.

In the grand scheme of things, it doesn't really matter that much if you fail to identify the next Nick Punto in your draft, but it does raise the question of why, if the Phillies are supposed to be a good example of intelligent drafting, they were able to identify so many star players but so few other future productive major leaguers.

Here's an example. In 2000 the Phillies got Utley, who single-handedly made the draft a very successful one for Philadelphia. The same year, the Pirates got Chris Young, Nate McLouth, Ian Snell, Jose Bautista and Sean Burnett. I'd say the Pirates actually did a much better job in that draft, even though it turned out worse--Dave Littlefield stupidly traded away Young a couple years later, and first-rounder Burnett's career was derailed with a ton of injuries. Drafting players who will stay healthy and helping them stay healthy involve skills, of course, and it certainly helps to not take a pitcher in the first round every year like the Pirates did. But there's luck involved too. For example, the Phillies were notably lucky that, for example, high school draftee Hamels basically made it to the majors with his elbow and shoulder intact, particularly after he missed huge chunks of his minor league career with injuries.

In 2001 the Phillies got Floyd, later sent to the White Sox in the Jim Thome trade, and Howard. That was all. Again, the Pirates had a much more robust draft, grabbing a number of moderately useful players in Zach Duke, Chris Shelton, Jeff Keppinger, Chris Duffy, Jonathan Albaladejo and Rajai Davis. (They also might have had some shot of signing 11th-rounder Stephen Drew if Littlefield, who was hired shortly after the draft, hadn't dropped the ball.) The Pirates royally messed up their first-round pick, John Van Benschoten, and that was their fault, but again, I'm not really convinced that Wade and the Phillies had a better idea of what they were doing.

Of course, Littlefield and his team started drafting in 2002, and after that all bets are off. There's no defending much of anything Littlefield did. My point, though, is that I'm not sure the Wade-era Phillies are a particularly good model here. In fact, it looks to me that they repeatedly got very lucky with about one pick each year and totally bombed the rest of their drafts under Wade, with the exceptions of 1998 and 2004. I don't mean to take anything away from the Phillies, who have generally been pretty well run since Wade left. But If there are things the Pirates can learn from this, they are the very basic points that, first, it's generally very important not to screw up first-round picks, and second, that it's important to build a core of homegrown stars. Beyond that, the Phillies' example doesn't tell us a whole lot.

Some fan perspective on the Astros managerial candidates

DyingQuail — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 14:20:50 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

Continuing with the theme of cool pictures instead of relevant ones.

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If you haven't caught on by now, I'm not overly enamoured with how the managerial search is going. I don't know why that is exactly, but it probably just has something to do with the fact that I won't get to make the decision; or that I don't trust I'll like the decision made.

By far the best thing to come of the managerial search, though, came last night via a Tweet from Brian McTaggart:

GM Wade said manager search now private; "We’ve been open on this thing, but I don’t want it to get to the point of Dancing With the Stars"

With that chuckle out of the way, it seems to me like we'll get less perspective on what goes on with the managerial search from here on out, but that doesn't mean we can't keep getting a better feel of who these gentlemen are. I've enlisted the help of some gracious blog managers from around SBN who have had to opportunity to observe the various managerial candidates in action.

So after the jump, check out what they had to say about their experience with our candidates as a manager.

Mackanin

The only manager that I'm familiar with is Pete Mackanin, who managed the Reds for half the season in 2007. A lot of the readers on our site really like Mackanin for a couple of reasons. First, he's hilarious. He seemed like the kind of guy that simply appreciated the opportunity to be in the dugout and didn't mind making jokes to the media. His light-hearted personality is a breath of fresh air with most managers and players who speak in cliches all of the time.

The second reason so many of us liked Mackanin is because he wasn't afraid to think outside of the norm. Granted, since he was interim manager and it was fairly clear that he didn't have much chance to get hired on, he didn't have a lot to lose. The only specific example I have right now is when he brought in a 5th infielder during a game to try to prevent a ball from getting through the infield. He also did stuff like put Jeff Keppinger at SS even when Kepp didn't have much experience there. Of course, Kepp isn't really that good of a shortstop, but it definitely helped the Reds to have his bat in the lineup everyday since Keppinger was killing the ball.

Mackanin took a team that was 20 games under .500 when he took them over and they went 2 over in the last 80 games under him. That's probably the number one reason why fans took to him. Who knows if that was real or just a bad team having a decent stretch. I don't remember many times during that span though that I regretted Mackanin being with the team. Unfortunately, I can't say much of the same about Dusty Baker.

--Red Reporter

Acta:

Acta was interviewed by the Rangers when they fired Buck Showalter, and he was the guy I was most interested in, mainly because in his interviews (including the rather famous one in saber-circles he did with BP) he came across as a stathead type. He was in a no-win situation in Washington, but he's someone who it seems like deserves a second chance, although with Houston's dysfunctional front office situation, this may not be the best second-chance landing spot for him.

--Lone Star Ball

Yost

Yost is still hated by Rangers fans because the Rangers traded Jim Sundberg for him back in the early 80s, and he had one of the worst seasons ever in major league history. So if you are looking for more Astro/Ranger rivalry stuff, Yost has that going for him.

--Lone Star Ball

[I think this probably get's Yost some street cred with some of us]

Yost did a pretty nice job of sticking with the young guys and developing a nice core of talent during his early years as manager of the Brewers, leading some to believe he might be a decent choice to manage a rebuilding team.

With that said, Yost's temperament and stubbornness really seemed to flare up when the Brewers were expected to contend. His lineup and bullpen decision making were questionable at best. He tended to stick with his starting pitchers far too long, giving them just enough rope to hang themselves, then telling reporters they "really battled today" and were "one pitch away from getting out of it" after the game.

He likely wasn't the worst manager in baseball, but his stubbornness and his prickly demeanor did him no favors, and his unwillingness to publicly admit a mistake or explain the rationale behind a questionable move quickly earned him a lot of hostility from the fan base. He doesn't appear to have learned from that mistake - he told reporters following his interview in Houston that he still didn't know why he'd been fired in Milwaukee.

Behind the scenes, Yost was often referred to as "Nervous Ned," reportedly drank volumes of coffee that can only be described as legendary, and was widely blamed for a tight, edgy clubhouse atmosphere in 2008, when he was eventually fired.

--Brew Crew Ball

Pedrique

Pedrique was basically handed the keys to the Titanic after hitting the iceberg and told, "Have fun." He was given the job on a team with a 29-50 record that had lost its best slugger (Richie Sexson) for the season. He didn't really have much hope of doing anything, given the group of replacement-level players with the team, and was never intended as more than a place-holder.

--AZ Snake Pit

Bob Melvin

Bob Melvin is a more interesting case. His first three years, he oversaw continual improvement, taking the team to the 2007 NLCS with a league-leading 90 wins. I'll confess, I bought into the myth of his genius, given that he had overseen two of the biggest gaps over Pythagorean expected record in baseball history (+11 games in both 2005 and 2007). However, he couldn't sustain it, and the team basically dropped off a cliff after April 2008 - he was 74-88 over the last "season" of his time here.

I didn't like his managerial style. Too fond of bunts by position players, even in the first couple of innings, and tended to stay with his starters too long - supposedly "giving them a change to win," it seemed to end up condemning them to defeat more often than not. His choice of bullpen arms was also questionable, not least his mis-use of Juan Cruz, who was one of the best relievers in the league from 2007-08, but was largely condemned to mop-up duty by Melvin. He had his favorites, and they played pretty fixed roles - the concept that the game might need to be 'saved' before the ninth was totally alien to Melvin. Do not expect a fixed line-up either. In 2007, we had *158* different batting orders including pitchers, and 151 in 2008.

--AZ Snake Pit

As more responses come in, I'll post them and send this back to the top of the home page, but I think we have enough here to start dissecting the managerial tendencies of these candidates. Thanks to all the other bloggers at SBN for helping out with this; I'm pretty sure this will be indispensable in helping us better gauge the candidates.

Roster Breakdown: The Infield

davoag — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 18:40:35 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

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This process took a little longer than I expected. In part two of my review of the roster, I looked at every infielders' (including catchers) statistics and make some notes about last season and their future. Not necessarily scientific, but there is some interesting information in here. Friday should see part three, a look at the outfield. Till then, let's see what happened with the first half of the roster...

Lance Berkman, 1B

2009 Season Stats: 562 PA, .274/.399/.509, 31 doubles, 1 triple, 25 HR, 73 runs, 80 RBIs, 7 of 11 stolen bases, 98 strikeouts, 140 OPS+

WAR: 3.0

UZR: -4.5

VORP: 34.9

Notes: Two points to consider about Berkman's season. First, his April and August splits were horrible. His slow start and power vacuum in August led to the perception that his season was a disappointment. Still, though he managed just 12 hits in April, he also walked 17 times and hit five home runs. In August, he hit zero home runs but had an OBP over .400. This also leads into the second point: Berkman is aging, but his power drop over the past three seasons is in part due to an overall power outage in the National League. The Big Puma saw his home run total fall 26 percent over the past three seasons while his extra-base hits have fallen 5 percent. That's almost exactly the same percentage that the NL extra-base hit total dropped over the same time period (5.6%). The NL home run total dropped 8.2 percent, but I'm guessing Berkman's drop in homers is beginning to be due to age. Still, if he hits 30 home runs in the next year or two with 50+ XBH, I'm guessing the Astros will be happy.

Kazuo Matsui, 2B

2009 Season Stats: 533 PA, .250/.302/.357, 20 doubles, 2 triples, 9 HR, 56 runs, 46 RBIs, 19 of 22 stolen bases, 85 strikeouts, 75 OPS+

WAR: 0.5

UZR: -1.0

VORP: 0.4

Notes: I'll be up front: I don't care for Matsui. He's overpaid, he's injured too often and he doesn't get on base enough to bat high in the order. That's just my personal preference, but I wanted to get that out in the open in the interests of being objective. Matsui's line is down quite a bit from 2008 but combine the past two seasons and its almost exactly in line with his career line of .271/.325/.387. His Runs Created totals of 64 in 2007, 61 in 2008 and 56 in 2009 have been very consistent, but his BABiP was 40 points lower in 2009 at .285 than the previous season. Add to that a good stolen base rate of 85% over his career and Matsui does have his uses. The problem is, he's a No. 7 hitter, not a leadoff guy. Matsui's numbers should bounce back some in 2010, but don't bet on another .350 OBP.

Miguel Tejada, SS

2009 Season Stats: 673 PA, .313/.340/.455, 46 doubles, 1 triple, 14 HR, 83 runs, 86 RBIs, 5 of 7 stolen bases, 48 strikeouts, 110 OPS+

WAR: 2.6

UZR: -8.3

VORP: 43.7

Notes: Tejada had the highest VORP of any player on the Astros roster last season, for good reason. Though his OBP wasn't terribly high, he did hit a ton of doubles and actually had more extra-base hits than Berkman. In fact, Tejada led the National League in doubles in 2009. Tejada also struck out just 48 times, which was his lowest total since his 104 plate appearances in 1997. Of course, the flip side of that is it was also his lowest walk total since 1997, too. Tejada's high batting average was due in part because he had his highest BABiP since 2006, 20 points higher than his career BABiP of .298. Tejada once again led the National League in grounding into double plays and put up his highest season totals since 2006 in plate appearances, RBIs, hits and sacrifice flies. I'm not sure if this was the most successful contract push for a 35-year old in the post-steroids era, but it's got to be up there on the list, right?

Geoff Blum, 3B/Util

2009 Season Stats: 427 PA, .247/.314/.367, 14 doubles, 1 triple, 10 HR, 34 runs, 49 RBIs, 0 for 1 stolen bases, 61 strikeouts, 81 OPS+

WAR: 0.6

UZR: 0.3

VORP: -0.5

Notes: Blum was the only regular Astros infielder (besides the catchers) who posted a negative VORP. His crazy hair styles and home runs off the bench were fun and zany in 2004 when the Astros were making their run to the postseason. Now? Blum's a steady defender but doesn't have great range and is aging quickly. His OPS+ of 81 is not good for any position, much less a corner infield spot. Surprisingly, Blum's numbers last season were right in line with his career line of .250/.310/.367, but moving into his age 37 season, he's probably not going to equal those numbers in 2010. Blum started 94 games at third and seven at first, but is probably better suited as being the Astros number one pinch hitter next year.

Ivan Rodriguez, C

2009 Season Stats: 344 PA, .251/.280/.382, 15 doubles, 2 triples, 8 HR, 41 runs, 34 RBIs, 0 for 2 stolen bases, 74 strikeouts, 75 OPS+

WAR:0.7

VORP: -1.1

Notes: Ahh, Pudge. Has there been a more controversial free agent signing by the Astros in recent memory? Can someone split a room between stat guys and traditional scouting guys more than Pudge? The 37-year old couldn't walk if he were given two balls at the beginning of every at-bat. He would sometimes throw out baserunners, but was never talked about as a good handler of the pitching staff. Where do we go from there? Pudge started out strong for the Astros but faded late, and did the same thing after being traded to the Rangers. Starting him and Matsui together proved dangerous for the Astros offense, as they both posted sub-80 OPS+. When 1/4 of the starting lineup can't get on base or hit for power, something's not right.

Humberto Quintero, C

2009 Season Stats: 168 PA, .236/.286/.376, 8 doubles, 1 triple, 4 HR, 11 runs, 14 RBIs, 0 of 0 stolen bases, 41 strikeouts, 75 OPS+

WAR: 0.5

VORP: -0.4

Notes: Q suffered through a bad concussion this season, but still managed to get into 60 games this season. He started some after Pudge was traded away, but didn't impress offensively. In fact, he's never hit much in the majors, with a career line of .232/.275/.325. Quintero has a strong arm and handles the pitching staff well, but will be 30 next season in his last non-arbitration year. He makes sense as a backup to someone like Towles or Jason Castro, but putting him in the starting lineup is a stretch.

J.R. Towles, C

2009 Season Stats (Houston): 53 PA, .188/.250/.354, 2 doubles, 0 triples, 2 HR, 7 runs, 3 RBIs, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 16 strikeouts, 59 OPS+

WAR: 0.0

VORP: -1.7

Notes: What to do with Towles? The 25-year old couldn't stay healthy at Round Rock this season, getting only 56 games with the Express. When he did play, Towles hit the ball well and got on base at a good clip, sporting an OPS of .842 in Triple-A. That didn't translate to the pros in either of his two stints with the team, but it should. All Towles needs is a little time and opportunity.

Jeff Keppinger, Util

2009 Season Stats: 344 PA, .256/.320/.387, 13 doubles, 3 triples, 7 HR, 35 runs, 29 RBIs, 0 for 2 stolen bases, 33 strikeouts, 88 OPS+

WAR: 0.4

UZR: 5.7

VORP: 2.8

Notes: Keppinger was a late-spring addition, something former GM Gerry Hunsicker made into somewhat of an art form. Unfortunately, Keppinger didn't work out quite as well as guys like Mike Lamb and Billy Spiers did. That's not to say Keppinger was bad, as his batting was okay for a shortstop. Again, unfortunately, Keppinger played 59 games at third base. His range and glove made him an asset defensively there, but his bat is not good enough to hold up there for long periods of time. Still, Keppinger is a useful player who makes more sense on the bench than most of the Astros' reserves.

Darin Erstad, 1B

2009 Season Stats: 150 PA, .194/.268/.328, 8 doubles, 2 triples, 2 HR, 13 runs, 11 RBIs, 0 for 2 stolen bases, 31 strikeouts, 58 OPS+

WAR: -0.9

UZR: 7.9

VORP: -8.2

Notes: Erstad was a surpringly resurgent part of the 2008 team. Of course, in that campaign, Erstad played 40 games in center field. This season? Just one appearance in center field. Erstad could be a useful player, but he doesn't have the bat to be a first baseman, even as a backup, and doesn't have the arm to play in right field. That leaves him as the caddy for Carlos Lee. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but the next manager should not view Erstad as the first bat off the bench to pinch hit.

Edwin Maysonet, 2B

2009 Season Stats: 79 PA, .290/.333/.362, 2 doubles, 0 triples, 1 HR, 9 runs, 7 RBIs, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 19 strikeouts, 86 OPS+

WAR: 0.3

UZR: 8.3

VORP: 1.1

Notes: Maysonet wasn't one of the best prospects in the Astros system, but made the best debut of any Astros rookie position player in 2009. His average was high, but his OBP was not impressive. Add to that his complete lack of power and it's not like we have the next Chase Utley here. Still, Maysonet probably deserved more playing time than he got. He'd been known in the minors as a great defensive player and flashed good range in his time with the big league club. The only downside is his minor league track batting record was not very good. Maysonet had a decent season in 2008 at Corpus Christi, but was pretty terrible at Round Rock last season. That could be him reacting to shuttling back and forth from Triple-A to the majors. That could be because he's not ready to hit high-level pitching. Only time will tell.

Tommy Manzella, SS

2009 Season Stats: 5 PA, .200/.200/.200, 0 doubles, 0 triples, 0 HR, 0 runs, 0 RBIs, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 4 strikeouts, 7 OPS+

WAR: 0.0

UZR: -11.6

VORP: -0.5

Notes: The Great Shortstop Hope will be 27 next season and hasn't made a dent in the big leagues yet. There were a couple stories in September about how Manzella was learning from Tejada and soaking it all in, but he still needs to play. Manzella was a very consistent hitter for Round Rock in 2009, batting .289/.339/.417 in 133 games. The one good thing? Manzella is a horse, playing 521 games over the past five seasons in the minors. His defense is good, but it's hard to quantify how good it will be in the majors. In all likelihood, Manzella will be given every chance to be the everyday shortstop next season.

Chris Johnson, 3B

2009 Season Stats: 23 PA, .091/.130/.091, 0 doubles, 0 triples, 0 HR, 1 run, 1 RBI, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 6 strikeouts, -39 OPS+

WAR:-0.4

UZR: -34.9

VORP: -4.2

Notes: Johnson is one of the few Astros prospects I'm not that high on. He gets a lot of credit for being a power hitter, but only hit 13 home runs last season and averaged 10 homers per year in his minor league career. His defense at third is just passable, but probably could be as good as Blum, given time. The question is: is this Astros team ready to take a chance on a young player going through growing pains at the big league level? It's going to take an adjustment for Johnson to be a productive big league hitter, and I'm not sure the Astros can be patient enough for that to happen.

Chris Coste, Util

2009 Season Stats: 112 PA, .204/.259/.252, 5 doubles, 0 triples, 0 HR, 3 runs, 10 RBIs, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 28 strikeouts, 37 OPS+

WAR: -0.5

UZR: -10.9

VORP: -8.1

Notes: After being picked up off waivers on July 10, Coste started a bunch of games when Lance Berkman was injured and then Ivan Rodriguez was traded to the Rangers. The problem is Coste just wasn't that good, either offensively or defensively. Coste didn't hit for much power in his brief stint with the team, but did manage to strike out a ton. So he's got that going for him, which is nice. Seriously, though, by whichever metric you look at, Coste is the prototypical replacement-level player. He's only on the roster because there aren't better options. Hopefully that will change in the off-season.

Matt Kata, Util

2009 Season Stats: 52 PA, .200/.212/.220, 1 double, 0 triple, 0 HR, 2 runs, 5 RBIs, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 5 strikeouts, 16 OPS+

WAR: -0.1

UZR: 8.7

VORP: -4.8

Notes: Kata was more useful for his versatility off the bench than his play. As I mentioned at the top, I don't account much for UZR as the ONLY defensive metric to analyze things, especially when we have to extrapolate it out based on small sample sizes. Still, it appears Kata was at least a decent defensive asset on the bench this season. He's now a free agent.

Jason Smith, Util

2009 Season Stats: 27 PA, .000/.000/.000, 0 doubles, 0 triples, 0 HR, 1 run, 1 RBI, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 9 strikeouts, -100 OPS+

WAR: -0.6

UZR: 21.6

VORP: -7.4

Notes: Smith didn't get much of a chance to show anything at the big league level. What he did show wasn't good. Smith did better with Round Rock, but is probably best suited as a utility guy on the end of a bench. Smith is a free agent and probably won't be back with Round Rock.

Aaron Boone, 3B

2009 Season Stats: 14 PA, .000/.071/.000, 0 doubles, 0 triples, 0 HR, 0 runs, 0 RBIs, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 2 strikeouts, -79 OPS+

WAR: -0.3

UZR: 15.9

VORP: -3.4

Notes: Not much to say here, other than for a guy to go through what Boone did in spring training and still get 14 plate appearances in the same season...well, that's just impressive.