SB Nation - Brandon Phillips

Why moving Pedroia to shortstop just makes sense

ltrain2 — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 16:00:46 -0000

More photos » by Mark J. Terrill - AP

2 months ago: Los Angeles Angels' Howie Kendrick steals second as Boston Red Sox's second baseman Dustin Pedroia looks to the umpire in the seventh inning in Game 2 of the American League division baseball series Friday, Oct. 9, 2009 in Anaheim, Calif. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

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There has been an enormous amount of speculation surrounding the Red Sox's plans on how to best address the void at the shortstop position in recent days, a void that has been plaguing them since the dramatic downfall of the once iconic Red Sox, Nomar Garciaparra.

Early this off-season, much of the rumors pointed towards the seemingly inevitable signing of free agent shortstop Marco Scutaro to take over the middle infield duties alongside Dustin Pedroia. With such a shallow pool of available shortstops at the moment via free agency, Scutaro, who is coming off a career season with the Blue Jays (.282/.379/.409), has quickly become regarded as the most highly sought after player at his position this off-season. I, myself, am not buying into Scutaro being the answer that the Red Sox are searching for, and apparently I'm not alone in this thinking. Forget the fact that Scutaro, prior to 2009, was a career sub .260 hitter with a fielding percentage of .977 at the shortstop position. The fact of the matter is that the former Blue Jays shortstop, recently turning 34 years of age, had posted mediocre numbers in the seasons prior to last and appears to be yet another beneficiary of a career season entering free agency. Scutaro's 2009 numbers, in comparison to his career totals, look eerily similar to those of Julio Lugo circa 2006 in the same regard. A 2006 season that prompted the Red Sox to sign Lugo to a lucrative deal that benefited only Julio's bank statement.

Assuming that the thought of signing another Lugo-type shortstop caused Boston's front office to collectively shiver in disgust, Theo and Co. seem to be attempting to get creative in the way that they go about attacking this whole shortstop epidemic.

Enter Dustin Pedroia.

Recently, reports have surfaced suggesting that the Red Sox brass has approached the diminutive second baseman with the idea of moving him back to his collegiate position, that being shortstop. Casual baseball observers may not be familiar with the prowess displayed by Pedroia during his time manning shortstop for the Arizona State Sun Devils. After beating out Ian Kinsler for the starting spot at ASU, ultimately forcing the future Rangers' star to transfer to Missouri, Pedroia went on to accrue All-American honors at the position. After being drafted, Pedroia turned in 42 errorless games at shortstop in the minor leagues before being moved to second base to make room for Hanley Ramirez. The former rookie of the year even still takes ground balls at shortstop during the season. Pedroia himself is not only welcome to the position swap, he has actually done a bit of lobbying for the change through the media. Pedroia was quoted as telling ESPN's Peter Gammons:

"They've asked me if I think I could play shortstop, they've put it out there, and I've told them I'm all for it. I can do it. I can't wait for [Terry Francona] to call me and ask, 'Can you do it?' I can do it. I really want to do it."

Reading that particular quote is interesting to say the least. It seems as though Pedroia begins his verbal thought process restraining his eagerness to attempt the transition. However, by the end of it, Pedroia comes off sort of giddy, almost as though he wanted to end the interview on the spot and force Gammons to accompany him to the nearest baseball diamond for infield practice. The fact remains that Pedroia can accomplish such a transition, and as you just read, he'll be the first to inform you of that.

However, the benefits of a move such as this go beyond simply filling the hole at shortstop. By doing so internally with an already proven commodity (without having to reach into their pockets), this allows the Red Sox to then shift their focus on nabbing one of the available free agent second baseman, a market significantly deeper than that of the its shortstop counterpart. What this does is create more, potentially cheaper, options for the Red Sox.

Rather than being presented with a 34 year-old Marco Scutaro as the most attractive middle infield acquisition option, the Red Sox now have the choice between Orlando Hudson and Placido Polanco. Not to mention reports that the Marlins and Reds have made Dan Uggla and Brandon Phillips, respectively, available to potential suitors. For the sake of comparison, let's single out Brandon Phillips from that bunch (I choose him because to me, he is the most appealing option from the previously mentioned group of second baseman). As stated earlier, Scutaro, six years older than Phillips, experienced a career season in 2009. Phillips on the other hand, had by his standards, just a solid season a year ago. While most of Scutaro's numbers were career highs, Phillips had a season pretty consistent to that of his 2006, 2007, and 2008 campaigns. That being said, here are the statistics:

2009 Season                 BA    OBP    SLG     R        H     2B    3B    HR    RBI    SB    FPCT

Brandon Phillips         .276   .329    .447    78     161    30     5      20      98     25    .988

Marco Scutaro            .282   .379   . 409    100   162    35     1      12      60     14     .984

At first glance, you wouldn't be wrong in pointing out that these are relatively similar numbers. However, aside from having a slight edge in OBP and runs scored, Phillips is the smart play here. Not only has the younger Phillips shown more consistency the past four seasons and offers a significant advantage in the power game, he also represents a threat on the base paths, a characteristic that the Red Sox have come to hold in high regard in recent years.

The question then becomes whether the Red Sox would be better off signing Marco Scutaro or putting together a deal to acquire Brandon Phillips. Both come with their own aspects of negativity. In signing Scutaro, a Type-A free agent, the Red Sox would be forced to surrender compensatory draft selections to Toronto. While on the other hand, assuming that the Reds are shopping Phillips in an effort to cut down on salary commitments, the Red Sox will likely have to surrender a package of prospects to Cincinnatti in order to pry Phillips from the Reds.

In my opinion, the Red Sox's most intelligent move would be to, in fact, shift Pedroia to shortstop and make a move on Brandon Phillips. Phillips, assuming no restructuring would be done to his contract prior to arrival, would be under contract through 2011 commanding around $19 million during that span. If not Phillips, I'd say it's hard to argue against the general idea of at least moving Pedroia over to shortstop in an effort to expand Boston's free agent options, regardless of who they would eventually sign from that group.

If Pedroia is more than willing, and judging by his comments I think it's safe to say that he is, to make the move then I don't see any reason not to explore this option more in depth. Not only does it create more options for Boston via free agency, but it will also finally put a stop to the seemingly neverending search for a reliable and impactful starting shortstop from both an offensive and defensive standpoint. I think I speak for all Red Sox fans when I say that this would be a welcome change from what we've reluctantly grown accustomed to.

Poll

Of the players mentioned in this article, who do you want to see acquired by the Red Sox this off-season?

The Mets' Advantage

Sam Page — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 11:00:15 -0000

More photos » by Tom Gannam - AP

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The local papers have come to their yearly consensus about the Mets offseason--it's a gap year. While the prospects of 2011 remain bright, the puppet Minaya regime are prisoners of circumstance, trapped in their bailout-funded stadium, recently painted red and blue in their latest failed attempt to appease fans. The evidence is irrefutable. The good free agent hitters won't sign because the park is too big. The good pitchers won't sign because the park isn't actually that big at all. Groundball pitchers are seeking teams with better infield defense, while the flyballs pitchers are just seeking employment. Unfortunately none of that matters, as the Madoff scandal has left the Mets with no budget at all. But we could only be that lucky, as the Wilpons actually made money off the ponzi scheme, and are prepared to invest considerable funds in the aforementioned "good" free agents, actually landmines--likely to fizzle out the second they cash their signing bonuses.

Fortunately, as is their nature, these writers have made the solution equally clear. The fundamental weaknesses remain minor league depth and fielding, so all the minor the leaguers should be sent post-haste to Toronto in a package for a pitcher who will likely walk after the season's end. Whatever money remains will be divided equally between paying-off some unwitting team to take our defensively-challenged secondbaseman and committing another four years to his similarly inept replacement.

In reality, however, the Mets have considerable advantages in this market. Many teams are still looking to shed payroll after sub-par attendance. Several talented free agents have been forced to hit the market after disappointing seasons. The Mets have payroll room and two more years of criminal-underpayment of Wright and Reyes to play with. Instead of signing Jon Garland for upwards of $10MM, they should be inquiring on Bronson Arroyo, a pitcher with better stuff and even more durable track-record, who the Reds are trying desperately to give away. The advantage here is that the Mets get their "innings-eater" on a one-year deal, while gaining leverage in a trade for a player they'd actually want to build around, like Brandon Phillips. Potentially, the Mets could even get Aaron Harang, a solid starter, not quite the caliber of John Lackey--but close enough, for little additional cost. That's $30.25MM dollars to solve their rotation issues and add another "core" player, with a cheap talent cost and without the uncertainty of negotiation, or temptation to overpay.

Or maybe the Mets will just notice that pitchers better than Jon Garland and Jason Marquis are being desperately ditched by other teams, and get the hint that multi-year, multimillion dollar commitments to pitchers with marginal stuff rarely--if ever--end well. In the never-ending myopia of the Mets brass (and some of their fans), though, the injuries of last season will create a premium on durability. Undoubtedly some nightmarish, Oliver-Perez-part-deux scenario will develop where Jeff Wilpon and John Ricco conference call with "Scott Boras," who is really just Omar Minaya in the other room, forging fake term-sheets between Jon Garland and the Brewers, which he might "accidentally" leave in the fax machine on his way out.

Get Doug Davis, Claudio Vargas, Odalis Perez, Todd Wellemeyer, whomever. They'll give you the desired 200 generic innings at virtually no cost. Get Brandon Knight back from Korea. Livan. What? Yea, Captain Rubber Arm himself. Pop quiz: who had better peripherals last season: Jon Garland or Livan Hernandez? The answer may surprise you.

Alternatively, the Mets could take Magglio Ordonez and his $18MM salary off Dave Dombrowski's hands for the inside track in negotiating a Edwin Jackson or Curtis Granderson trade. Same basic idea: rightfield is hardly a sure thing, whether you believe in Jeff Francoeur or not, and the Mets get to leverage their financial advantage to add a player for the long-term.

Both of those scenarios fill the Mets "holes," both now and in 2011-12, with a little extra cash to burn. Some have speculated that the Wilpon's budget for this season is closer to $20MM, but with so many contracts finally expiring and the luxury-tax threshold rising closer ~$160MM, they can really spend up to $50MM, if they so choose. Let's just take the first trade-scenario, the Reds one, and kind of speculate on a possible team. $31MM leaves $10MM, for the sake of being realistic, which the Mets can use to sign Rick Ankiel and Troy Glaus. Those two are solid complements to Pagan and Murphy, who have middle of the order power, when healthy. If the Mets traded for Magglio and E-Jax they could add a Sheets/Harden tandem to the rotation, which gives them four players with ace-potential. Or they could negotiate a backloaded John Lackey contract, not my favorite idea, but definitely an improvement.

Ordonez, Harang, and Arroyo are basically solid-role players with ripcords for 2011. Adding another cheap "core" caliber player also seems more necessity than luxury with Wright and Reyes' costs rising. The Mets added many high-risk, high-upside players in the 2009 offseason, but did so without accounting for the risk. Oliver Perez has no buyout. Francisco Rodriguez will destroy the payroll in 2012. J.J. Putz had an buy-out, but was a waste of talent. Now faced with high-upside free agents available on the cheap, they seem resolved to do the only thing worse: invest long-term in high-risk, no-upside players. In the year 2011, the Mets graduate their best hitting prospects in 8 years, Ike Davis and Reese Havens, but are unable to complement them with a decent leftielder or bullpen, because no one will take on Jason Marquis' contract. Wait, I know how this ends. I'll take the gap-year, please.

Sabermetric Review of the 2009 Reds, Part 2: Offense

JinAZ — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 20:00:14 -0000

A late season surge helped prevent a historically bad offense, but nonetheless, relative to average, the Reds fell off 26 runs in 2009 to 71 runs below average (after park adjustments). It was the worst Reds offense since the 1997 team (95 runs below average). On a team level, where did this offensive dropoff come from? Let's go position-by-position:

Notes: Batting runs are the "Batting" stat from fangraphs, which are park-adjusted for us, and include all players at each position on the '08 and '09 Reds teams. Players playing multiple positions had their offenses pro-rated based on innings played at each position.

The Reds had a nice uptick at 1B and 2B thanks to improved offensive seasons by both Votto and Phillips. But there were major dropoffs in offense at 3B, SS, and LF. 3B was largely due to the massive underperformance of (and injury to) Encarnacion and subsequent powerless debut by Scott Rolen. At SS and LF, the story is a bit more nuanced. The Reds had guys who were essentially playing out of position at those positions in 2008 (Dunn, Hairston, Keppinger), but in 2009 were replaced by guys who didn't hit as well but contributed significantly better fielding (Janish, Dickerson, etc). Also, given how much time Paul Bako got in 2008, I was surprised to not see better offense from our catchers. But then I looked again at the 2009 catchers' hitting stats and it all made sense again. More on the individual players below.

For the individual player stats, there are a few flourishes that distinguishes what follows from what you'll find at Fangraphs, for example (which is my primary data source). First, everything's park adjusted. This is a big deal for Cincinnati, which is a moderate hitter's park (5 year regressed park factor has climbed to 1.04!). Second, the last three columns include not only the hitting information, but also full baserunning info from BPro. This includes not only stolen bases, but also things like advancing 1st to 3rd on a single.

Here are all individual Reds player performances for 2009. The table is sortable if you click in the header. I've italicized pitchers to make it easier to ignore them if you wish to do so.

Name	PA	BB%	K%	GB%	LD%	FB%	EqBRR	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	wOBA*	wRAA*	wRAR*
Joey Votto	544	13%	23%	39%	22%	39%	-0.3	0.372	0.322	0.414	0.567	0.245	0.411	38.3	52.7
Brandon Phillips	644	7%	13%	50%	17%	33%	3.0	0.284	0.276	0.329	0.447	0.171	0.339	5.3	22.3
Jonny Gomes	314	9%	30%	34%	20%	46%	-0.1	0.309	0.267	0.338	0.541	0.274	0.367	10.1	18.4
Jay Bruce	387	10%	22%	39%	13%	49%	0.0	0.221	0.223	0.303	0.470	0.247	0.324	-2.1	8.1
Chris Dickerson	299	13%	26%	50%	22%	29%	-1.9	0.360	0.275	0.370	0.373	0.098	0.325	-1.2	6.7
Laynce Nix	337	7%	26%	38%	20%	43%	1.1	0.272	0.239	0.291	0.476	0.237	0.321	-2.7	6.2
Wladimir Balentien	125	12%	25%	47%	18%	35%	0.5	0.325	0.264	0.352	0.427	0.163	0.345	1.6	4.9
Drew Stubbs	196	8%	27%	42%	21%	37%	-1.3	0.325	0.267	0.323	0.439	0.172	0.328	-0.4	4.8
Juan Francisco	25	13%	33%	57%	29%	14%	0.3	0.615	0.429	0.520	0.619	0.190	0.503	3.8	4.4
Scott Rolen	162	12%	15%	46%	16%	38%	-1.5	0.291	0.270	0.364	0.401	0.131	0.325	-0.7	3.6
Micah Owings	58	2%	35%	43%	17%	40%	-0.1	0.333	0.259	0.281	0.537	0.278	0.333	0.2	1.7
Darnell McDonald	111	5%	30%	47%	18%	35%	0.7	0.361	0.267	0.306	0.400	0.133	0.312	-1.8	1.2
Jerry Hairston	340	6%	15%	34%	24%	42%	-0.5	0.273	0.254	0.305	0.397	0.143	0.303	-8.1	0.9
Kevin Barker	36	9%	28%	54%	25%	21%	-0.1	0.375	0.281	0.333	0.375	0.094	0.292	-1.2	-0.2
Daniel Herrera	4	33%	50%	100%	0%	0%	0.0	0.000	0.000	0.333	0.000	0.000	0.229	-0.4	-0.2
Arthur Rhodes	1	0%	100%	0%	0%	0%	0.0	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	-0.006	-0.3	-0.3
Jared Burton	1	0%	100%	0%	0%	0%	0.0	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	-0.006	-0.3	-0.3
Nick Masset	1	0%	100%	0%	0%	0%	0.0	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	-0.006	-0.3	-0.3
Ramon Ramirez	1	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	-0.006	-0.3	-0.3
Carlos Fisher	1	0%	100%	0%	0%	0%	0.0	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	-0.006	-0.3	-0.3
Ryan Hanigan	293	13%	12%	48%	24%	27%	-1.4	0.289	0.263	0.361	0.331	0.068	0.298	-8.2	-0.5
Matt Maloney	15	8%	42%	86%	14%	0%	0.1	0.429	0.250	0.308	0.250	0.000	0.262	-0.9	-0.5
Mike Lincoln	2	0%	100%	0%	0%	0%	0.0	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	-0.006	-0.6	-0.5
Edwin Encarnacion	165	15%	27%	41%	14%	46%	-2.8	0.250	0.209	0.333	0.374	0.165	0.295	-5.1	-0.7
Drew Sutton	76	10%	30%	37%	19%	44%	-0.6	0.289	0.212	0.297	0.348	0.136	0.280	-3.3	-1.3
Ramon Hernandez	331	10%	12%	49%	19%	32%	-3.1	0.274	0.258	0.336	0.362	0.104	0.295	-10.1	-1.3
Danny Richar	9	11%	13%	57%	14%	29%	-1.3	0.286	0.250	0.333	0.250	0.000	0.105	-1.8	-1.5
Kip Wells	16	0%	36%	67%	33%	0%	0.2	0.143	0.091	0.091	0.091	0.000	0.090	-3.3	-2.9
Corky Miller	69	14%	25%	28%	21%	51%	-0.5	0.214	0.179	0.299	0.250	0.071	0.247	-5.0	-3.2
Edinson Volquez	19	0%	50%	75%	13%	13%	0.0	0.125	0.063	0.063	0.063	0.000	0.050	-4.6	-4.1
Adam Rosales	266	10%	20%	45%	16%	40%	0.3	0.246	0.213	0.303	0.317	0.104	0.278	-12.0	-5.0
Justin Lehr	28	4%	36%	77%	8%	15%	-0.7	0.143	0.091	0.130	0.136	0.045	0.090	-5.9	-5.1
Craig Tatum	77	9%	15%	45%	12%	43%	0.1	0.175	0.162	0.250	0.221	0.059	0.213	-7.8	-5.8
Paul Janish	292	9%	16%	37%	19%	44%	0.7	0.247	0.211	0.296	0.305	0.094	0.271	-14.9	-7.2
Aaron Harang	54	2%	26%	74%	9%	18%	-1.4	0.176	0.149	0.167	0.234	0.085	0.141	-8.9	-7.5
Johnny Cueto	59	6%	37%	74%	4%	22%	0.2	0.207	0.130	0.184	0.130	0.000	0.151	-9.2	-7.6
Homer Bailey	43	0%	45%	75%	10%	15%	-0.1	0.143	0.079	0.079	0.079	0.000	0.062	-10.0	-8.9
Bronson Arroyo	76	0%	44%	35%	21%	45%	-0.3	0.200	0.113	0.113	0.161	0.048	0.108	-14.7	-12.7
Willy Taveras	437	4%	14%	47%	17%	36%	3.6	0.277	0.240	0.275	0.285	0.045	0.259	-26.9	-15.4
Alex Gonzalez	270	6%	15%	36%	18%	46%	-1.4	0.231	0.210	0.258	0.296	0.086	0.229	-23.7	-16.6

Table notes: Most stats were pulled or calculated from those at FanGraphs. Most should be self-explanatory. EqBRR is Dan Fox's baserunning stat from Baseball Prospectus. wOBA* is an all-encompassing offensive stat read on the same scale as OBP. It is based on wOBA listed at fangraphs, but then park adjusted and further adjusted to include EqBRR baserunning information. wRAA* is runs above average, based on wOBA*, and so is park adjusted and includes EqBRR. wRAR* is based on wRAA*, plus a 2.0 wins/700 PA modifier (the difference between an average hitter and a replacement hitter). wRAR* does not consider position--that includes pitchers! We will apply position adjustments when calculating win values in a subsequent post.

Joey Votto is the clear winner of the best offensive player award, despite missed time due to illness. The guy just had an incredible season. His 0.372 BABIP is a source of concern, however--that's almost certainly the result of some good luck, which will (at least) pull down his on-base stats. But he doesn't have to have an 0.372 to be a fine hitter. I'll happily take his CHONE projection in 2010 and every year thereafter...though, maybe with a few more PA's.

The often maligned (at least in the blogosphere) Brandon Phillips comes in as the second most valuable hitter, at least relative to replacement level. Yes, he's a free swinger, and yes, he's misplaced hitting 4th on a team. But he's proven to be an extremely durable, consistent hitter with good power and the ability to add to value with his baserunning game. He, along with Taveras, contributed the most on the basepaths this year (+3 runs overall).

Jonny Gomes comes in third, and I'm sure this is why so many are enthusiastic about re-signing him (despite his fielding problems). His 0.274 ISO was the highest of any hitter on the team, and second only to the incomparable Micah Owings.

But from here, we just drop off a cliff. I find it flat-out shocking that only three hitters crossed the 10 RAR plateau on this Reds team. In 2008, we had seven players top that plateau, with Jay Bruce essentially #8. There just wasn't much good hitting talent--or at least good hitting performance--on the team this year. In contrast, we had five hitters at least 5 runs below replacement level (Rosales, Tatum, Janish, Taveras, and Gonzalez; this is offense only). Now, some of that was made up for with glovework. But even so, this is a miserable offense. All I can say is thank goodness for Joey Votto. Can you imagine what this team would have been like without him?

A few other hitters of interest. I've read a lot of optimisim about Jay Bruce, with many pointing to his 0.221 BABIP as something that won't happen next season. I hope they're right, and I was glad to see the power there from him, but I worry about his line drive %. Those things can fluctuate, and Bruce is young and tremendously talented. But a bust-out season next year isn't guaranteed from where I sit......Micah Owings lived up to his reputation and had a terrific year at the plate for a pitcher, often serving as our top right-handed pinch hitter. And keep in mind the pinch hitting is measurably more difficult that hitting when you're already in the game, so Owings is probably better than he showed. He didn't walk much, and I wonder if that eventually will catch up to him as pitchers learn to exploit his weaknesses.....Drew Stubbs showed surprising power in his September call-up, but his on-base skills weren't as evident, walking only 8% of the time. There was some talk that he'd modified his swing upon arriving in the big leagues, but I haven't seen confirmation of that and I'm skeptical. Honestly, I think he just got lucky. I have very little idea of what he'll hit next season.....Juan "El Nino Destructor" Francisco hit the crap out of the ball in his 25 PA's, even walking at a nice clip. But 0.615 BABIPs tend to decline, and I have almost zero confidence that he's actually big league ready.....Lowest walk rate by anyone on the team with more than 100 PA's? Our leadoff hitter, Willy Taveras. I kind of miss Norris Hopper.....How bad was Ramon Hernandez? And manning 1B when Votto was out, no less! I argued last spring that a combination of Hernandez and Hanigan would be a massive upgrade on last year's catching. As the graph at the top of the page shows, however, it wasn't. Not that Tatum or Miller helped much on that front.

Next time (probably after the holidays): Fielding, and combining fielding value with offensive value to get position player win values!

MLB Trade Rumors: Brandon Phillips to the Mets?

raygu — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 14:00:32 -0000

by Pat Sullivan - AP

2 months ago: Cincinnati Reds' Joey Votto (19) welcomes teammate Brandon Phillips (4) at home plate in the third inning against the Houston Astros in a baseball game Saturday, Sept. 26, 2009, in Houston. Phillips scored from second base on a bases-loaded Juan Francisco two-run double. (AP Photo/Pat Sullivan)

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It appears the recession has really hit MLB more than they have let on over the past year, as one team after another is trying to dump salary to reduce payroll going into the 2010 season. The Reds are the latest team to announce that they will listen to offers for Brandon Phillips, Bronson Arroyo, Francisco Cordero and Aaron Harang.

The most interesting name of the four listed is Brandon Phillips as there are several large market teams looking for a second baseman, namely the Dodgers and Mets. The Diamondbacks may also be looking to fill 2B, but only after making decisions in their bullpen.

Phillips makes alot of sense for both the Dodgers and Mets, as long as the Mets can rid themselves of Luis Castillo's remaining two year $12 million contract. Phillips had another good season going 20-98-25-.276. The Dodgers, according to ESPN's Buster Olney, are aggressively looking for a second baseman. Here is his Tweeter quote:

The Dodgers aggressively seeking a second baseman... We've heard about Uggla out there; Would Brandon Phillips make sense? We'll see.

There was also a rumor out yesterday where the Mets were shopping Luis Castillo and the Dodgers appeared to have interest in him as well. I assume one Juan Pierre could be involved in that deal in a salary for salary deal.

Poll

Where will Brandon Phlllips be playing in 2010?

Mets

262 votes

Dodgers

123 votes

Reds

136 votes

521 votes | Poll has closed

GM Meetings Day 3: Open Thread

Jesse — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 08:38:56 -0000

2:27 pm: Twins begin extension talks with Joe Mauer's agent.

1:10 pm: Some post-lunch news from around the league...

The Miama Herald thinks Dan Uggla is still likely to be dealt. So...no changes there.
It sounds like Rich Harden is healthy, at least. I'm sure the Twins are still an outside shot to sign him.
Remember when some of us really wanted the Twins to chase Garrett Atkins? Well, he might be had for next to nothing pretty soon.

2:45 am: That's right, I get an early start!

• It sounds like the Reds will need to cut payroll. With the Twins still in "adding" mode, would they take a hard look at starters like Aaron Harang or Bronson Arroyo? Or would they attempt to take a run at second baseman Brandon Phillips?
• We already knew that Carl Pavano would test the free agent market and that he would garner some interest from around the league, and it sounds like Cleveland could host a return.
• HOW DOES LIVAN HERNANDEZ KEEP GETTING WORK?
• Some people think the Phillies would rather chase Mark DeRosa than Adrian Beltre. If that’s true it’s one less major hurdle the Twins would have to overcome, if they have interest in him.
• Wednesay morning Joe Mauer question: If you’re offering Joe an extension this off-season, what’s your opening offer?

Red Reposter - Sorry I Haven't Done One of These in a While, but My Hamstring Has Been Sore

Charlie Scrabbles — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 12:15:11 -0000

by Keith Srakocic - AP

Brandon Phillips has been one of the best defenders in the league over the past 3 seasons, and he's looked mighty handsome doing it.

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The Fay has more Q's and A's
"Q, from CSA: If the Reds are so poor, why did they spend $10 million on a new scoreboard and another $10 million on the worst available manager? Not to mention all that money on Scot Rolen (that was a good deal BTW). Not to mention Willy Tavaras.

A: The hope is that the new scoreboard will pay for itself through increased advertising at the stadium. Which is a nice theory, but you’ve got to draw fans to keep rates up. Only 26 managers in the history of the game have won more games that Dusty Baker. Given the injuries and payroll, 78-84 was pretty good this year. Rolen’s salary was paid by Toronto this year. And they made a huge mistake with Taveras. But he only made $2 million this year."

I have no idea how this injury excuse has gotten any traction as a plausible reason why this team failed this past season. I would like someone, anyone, to make a good argument that this team lost because of injuries. Please.
RedsFest tickets went on sale yesterday
$15 for adults and $7 for the kiddos. "Over 50 current and former Reds players are expected to attend including Brandon Phillips, Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, Bronson Arroyo, Dusty Baker and 2010 Reds Hall of Fame inductees Chris Sabo and Pedro Borbon. In honor of the recent RR Monday Morning Quiz, a special 20th anniversary tribute to the 1990 World Series Champions will include Sabo, Joe Oliver, Eric Davis, Ron Oester, Hal Morris, skipper Lou Piniella and many more."
Hall o' Famer Hal says Dick Pole was a victim of soap opera-level revenge and acrimony
"One problem with the Reds is that CEO Bob Castellini listens to too many people and some of them have axes to grind or let personalities sway their opinions. One of them got Castellini’s ear about Pole and Pole was axed (pole-axed?). A manager and a coach is only as good as his players/pitchers and I saw improvement from the Reds pitching staff under Pole."
Project Prospect is ranking the best prospects by position in the minors
and Todd Frazier is the top 2B. They say he lacks the range to be a great defender, but his bat could more than carry him. I think his bat is about average as a LF, but if he can hold his own as a 2B he could be something special. If only our incumbent 2B could play SS...

Mike Leake and Zach Stewart (cough) make the pitcher's list, Yonder Alonso is 2nd on the 1B list, and Juan Francisco is 13th on the 3B list. Hat tip to RML.
The Pirates traded for displaced Rays 2B Akinori Iwamura
or as Tim McCarver knows him, "Aka...Akamura". Iwamura was hurt most of this season and lost his job to Ben Zobrist. This deal reminds me a lot of the Reds' deal for Scott Rolen, accept that I like this for the Buccos. Neither team is close to playoff contention, both of the players are in the last year of their contract, and both players are still valuable relative to their contracts.

The key differences are that the Pirates only gave up Jesse Chavez, a 26-year-old relief prospect (Josh Roenicke?), and they have plenty of payroll space left after adding his contract (his option, which the Pirates still have to pick up, is worth $4.85 mil, which will make him the highest-paid Pirate!!). Iwamura isnt going to make the difference for the Pirates, but he'll help them take the next step to respectability.

And when you consider that Iwamura is basically the same player as Freddy Sanchez, whom they traded for a good pitching prospect in Tim Alderson, and is signed for 1/3 the money that Sanchez is, then this is really quite a move for the Pirates. I cant believe I'm saying this, but I'm kinda jealous.
FanGraphs is working on putting together 3-year UZR leaderboards and loserboards
and Brandon Phillips narrowly misses making the "best" list, falling just outside the top 5. We'll see the top and bottom 5's over the next few days.
It’s the Hardball Times 2010 Annual
I've never bought the THT Annual, but I'm thinking about it this year. It's $21.95, so it's pretty reasonably priced. Has anyone picked up one of these? Is it a good investment?

The Greatest Reds: #100 - #96

riverfront76 — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 17:00:30 -0000

As humans, and perhaps especially as American humans, we have an innate desire to make lists-to definitively declare "this movie quote is without question the 38^th greatest movie quote of all time." When it comes to baseball, this list-making fondness shifts into overdrive; the numbers and history of the sport practically demand it. Whereas the Cincinnati Reds are still considered a baseball team, and whereas Red Reporter is a certified Internet website, here then is a list of the greatest 100 Reds of all time. Q.E.D.

Before the list kicks off, a brief introduction and explanation: Players are generally ranked using Bill James' Win Shares statistic, although not strictly as a cumulative career Win Shares sorting. Here are some of the parameters used in constructing the top 100:

-All seasons from 1890 forward have been considered. 1890 was the year the Red Stockings joined the National League.

-Player contributions with teams other than Cincinnati have not been considered (sorry, Mr. Mathewson).

-Players have been ranked on career value with the Reds, peak value with the Reds (defined as the sum of the top three seasons as a Red), and prime value with the Reds (defined as the greatest total of five consecutive seasons). All of these factors were then considered in creating a master list.

-Where deemed appropriate, postseason contributions have been included in the data. In no situations were players docked for negative postseason performances.

-Partial extrapolation has been applied to seasons in which the Reds played fewer than 162 games.

-To facilitate even more lists, each player season has been assigned a particular defensive position, and the prevailing defensive position over the player's career is then assigned as that player's position for the purposes of creating top-15 lists at each position. 95%+ of the time, there's nothing "controversial" about the given positions (e.g. Johnny Bench is listed at catcher), but there's a couple that maybe look a little strange. These positional lists will be rolled out as the top player at each position is introduced.

It's probably also appropriate to include a brief note on Win Shares. If you don't know anything about it, it's an elaborate accounting system in which every single win by a team is allocated to the players on that team. While it works reasonably well (i.e. compares favorably to other accepted metrics), it's not without flaws: the baseline (or replacement value) is too low, it's missing contextual information (two players with 100 Win Shares may have accumulated that value over vastly different amounts of playing time), and the defensive value is based on primitive fielding stats-especially as compared to the newer hyper-specific data. There are other, more technical, critiques as well. So, why Win Shares in this setting? Three reasons: 1) the methodology is open-source, and able to be replicated with easily accessible data-important for what is potentially an ongoing project; 2) the defensive metrics are consistent across eras-important when trying to compare across time; and 3) I simply liked the concept of the low replacement value when coming up with a team-based list-the thought being that a player should have a minimum threshold of playing time with the Reds before being considered one of the "elite". Generally speaking, 4-5 seasons are necessary for inclusion in the top 100 here. Given that hurdle, combined with the peak value bonuses, my hope is that the list is a good one.

So, enjoy. Being a Redleg fanatic, you've already come to grips with your own insanity. Here, then, is an opportunity to learn about a player you've never heard of before, or argue about why the 78^th best Red should really be ranked 81^st, or just share some memories of the guys who have driven you to madness (and occasional joy) over the years.

Counting backwards, radio DJ style, with the first five after the jump...

100. Fred Toney

Played as Red	Primary Position	Career Rank	Peak Rank	Prime Rank
1915-1918	SP	114	66	96
Percent Breakdown of Value			Best Season	Best player on Reds
Hit	Field	Pitch	1915	Never
0%	0%	100%	1915	Never
Awards/Honors as a Red	Leading the League		On the Reds Leaderboard
N/A	HR/IP Ratio - 1915		- 2nd in career ERA - 2nd in career WHIP - 2nd in single-season shutouts (1917) - 4th in single-season ERA (1915) - 6th in career hits per inning

Toney was acquired by the Reds more or less or free: he was nabbed off waivers after being mostly a AA-level pitcher (he had been a non-descript reliever for the Cubs for a few years, totalling a 4-5 record with a 4.02 ERA in 130 IP over 3 seasons). The Reds picked him up for the 1915 season…and he was instantly one of the best pitchers in the league, putting up a 17-6 record with a 1.58 ERA (181 ERA+) in a hybrid starter/reliever role. After 2.5 more seasons, which were slightly above average in quality (including the famous "double no-hitter" against the Cubs), the Reds sold him to the Giants, where he had one more excellent season, and a couple more average ones.

99. Billy Myers

Played as Red	Primary Position	Career Rank	Peak Rank	Prime Rank
1935-1940	SS	95	113	81
Percent Breakdown of Value			Best Season	Best player on Reds
Hit	Field	Pitch	1939	Never
62%	38%	0%	1939	Never
Awards/Honors as a Red	Leading the League		On the Reds Leaderboard
N/A	N/A		- 30th in career sacrifice hits

For the first five seasons of his career, Myers was a solid—if unspectacular—player: an average hitter, playing good defense at shortstop. In fact, each season was incrementally better than the last, peaking in 1939, where he dramatically increased his walk total and posted an OPS+ over 100 for the only time in his career. In that season’s World Series, he played very well (929 OPS), despite being swept by the Yankees. In 1940, at age 29, Myers very suddenly fell off the cliff. His OPS+ of 65 and fading defense led to vastly reduced playing time. He did, however, find himself in the starting lineup in game 7 of the World Series against the Tigers, in which Myers hit the go-ahead sacrifice fly in the 7th inning, ultimately clinching the Reds’ 2nd World Championship.

98. Brandon Phillips

Played as Red	Primary Position	Career Rank	Peak Rank	Prime Rank
2006-2009	2B	104	79	81
Percent Breakdown of Value			Best Season	Best player on Reds
Hit	Field	Pitch	2009	Never
67%	33%	0%	2009	Never
Awards/Honors as a Red	Leading the League		On the Reds Leaderboard
Gold Glove - 2008	N/A		-21st in career sacrifice flies -27th in career slugging percentage -30th in career home runs -41st in career stolen bases -48th in career OPS

Phillips was a much heralded prospect with the Expos, turned into a promising future star for the Indians when he was traded along with Cliff Lee and Grady Sizemore for Bartolo Colon. His faded status was evident when the Reds were able to pry him away from the Indians four years later for the infamous player to be named later (Jeff Stevens). Inserted into the starting lineup at 2nd base, and left alone, Phillips has proved himself an above average second sacker—his bat plays at around league average (97 OPS+ in his time with the Reds) and he has a solid glove that at times borders on the spectacular. Phillips adds both power and speed threats to the lineup, totalling at least 20 home runs and 20 steals in each year from 2007 through 2009.

97. Danny Graves

Played as Red	Primary Position	Career Rank	Peak Rank	Prime Rank
1997-2005	RP, SP	96	99	81
Percent Breakdown of Value			Best Season	Best player on Reds
Hit	Field	Pitch	2000	Never
1%	0%	99%	2000	Never
Awards/Honors as a Red	Leading the League		On the Reds Leaderboard
Lou Gehrig Memorial Award - 2002 All Star - 2000, 2004	N/A		-1st in career saves -3rd in single-season saves (2004) -5th in career games pitched -17th in single-season games pitched (1999) -34th in career ERA+

Graves was picked up in a six-player trade in 1997 with the Indians, in which he was the only of the six to amount to any significant value from that point forward. The next season, the Reds discovered they had a rubber armed ground-ball specialist who managed to succeed without great stuff or control. His best year (2000) saw a stat line of 10-5, 30 saves, 2.56 ERA (185 ERA+) in 91.1 IP, but only 53 K to go along with the 42 BB. Graves continued as a solid closer until 2003 and a disastrous attempt to transform into a starting pitcher (4-15, 5.33 ERA). By 2005, his arm was toast, and Graves was released.

96. Heinie Peitz

Played as Red	Primary Position	Career Rank	Peak Rank	Prime Rank
1896-1904	C,2B	69	165	114
Percent Breakdown of Value			Best Season	Best player on Reds
Hit	Field	Pitch	1902	Never
60%	40%	0%	1902	Never
Awards/Honors as a Red	Leading the League		On the Reds Leaderboard
N/A	N/A		-46th in career games played -47th in career batting average -47th in career triples -47th in career singles -50th in career walks

The Reds received Peitz from the Browns, principally traded for Ed McFarland, who turned out to be a decent catcher in his own right. Peitz was a utility player of sorts (never appeared in more than 112 games in any season, and played every position except CF over the course of his career), but at most positions exhibited the range of…a catcher, albeit a quicker-than-average one. Peitz’s best year came in the only season where catcher was not his principle position, posting career highs in batting average (.315), doubles (22), and runs (54) en route to a 130 OPS+. He never had another good season, and was traded to Pirates prior to the 1905 season.

Who Would You Rather Have: Alex Rodriguez or Chase Utley?

raygu — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 13:00:26 -0000

Time for the World Series edition of Who Would You Rather Have? CBS Sportsline recently completed a 5x5 mixed league mock draft, and Chase Utley was selected 4th overall before Ryan Braun, Joe Mauer and Alex Rodriguez to name a few. After Utley went deep twice on Wednesday night do you select him before ARod? Or is ARod still a more valuable fantasy player?

Let's take a look at their 2009 stats:

Name	AB	H	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Chase Utley	571	161	31	112	93	88	110	23	0.282	0.397	0.508	0.905
Alex Rodriguez	444	127	30	78	100	80	97	14	0.286	0.402	0.532	0.934

ARod had better overall numbers across the board in less ABs, but Utley is one of the few stud fantasy players at 2B, and there is more depth at 3B than at 2B, right? I am not so sure.

More after the jump:

Here are the third baseman who hit more than 20 HRs in 2009:

Name	HR
Mark Reynolds	44
Ryan Zimmerman	33
Evan Longoria	33
Alex Rodriguez	30
Kevin Youkilis	27
Brandon Inge	27
Pablo Sandoval	25
Mark DeRosa	23
Michael Young	22

And here the second baseman who hit more than 20 HRs in 2009:

Name	HR
Aaron Hill	36
Chase Utley	31
Ian Kinsler	31
Dan Uggla	31
Ben Zobrist	27
Robinson Cano	25
Jose Lopez	25
Clint Barmes	23
Brandon Phillips	20

One could make the case that third base is a scarce postion in 2010, especially if you think that Mark DeRosa is tailing off as a fantasy player and don't think Brandon Inge can hit 27 HRs again. Of course the Cubs third baseman Aramis Ramirez should hit 30+ HRs should he stay healthy in 2010, but can one count on Chipper Jones or Scott Rolen to hit 20+ HRs again?

Second base is not as scarce as it used to be with Aaron Hill having a breakout (career?) year in 2009, and Ben Zobrist coming out of nowhere to hit 27 HRs in 2009. I won't count on Clint Barmes hitting 20+ HRs again, especially with the AVG that comes with it. Could the Braves Martin Prado sneak into the 20+ HR range with regular playing time in 2010?

So, with all that said, who would you rather have?

Poll

Who would you rather have: Chase Utley or Alex Rodriguez?

ARod-he can hit 40+ in that ballpark

64 votes

Utley-he brings power and more speed.

92 votes

156 votes | Poll has closed

Checking out Bill James Projections for 2010

Slyde — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 14:50:17 -0000

We're still a week away from the World Series, but now is as good of a time as any to start checking out projections for the 2010 season. I've gotten my hands on the initial set of Bill James Projections for next season, so I thought I'd share them with you. The full set of projections will be available with much, much more in the 2010 Bill James Handbook, which comes out next month and you can pre-order here.

I've broken the projections down a bit into groups, the first set being players who don't really have competition for their position (yet), and the following sets split up among players from 2009 who could be part of a position competition. First, the "starters":

**Starters**
Name	2009 Projection	2009 Actual	2010 Projection
Name	AVG/OBP/SLG	AVG/OBP/SLG	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG
Jay Bruce	.296/.351/.540	.223/.303/.470	574	.274/.340/.537
Paul Janish	N/A	.211/.296/.305	188	.223/.301/.319
Brandon Phillips	.263/.313/.431	.276/.329/.447	613	.269/.322/.434
Scott Rolen	.268/.356/.453	.305/.368/.455	482	.278/.357/.442
Joey Votto	.307/.386/.536	.322/.414/.567	502	.311/.397/.550

The James projections were way off on Bruce, as most systems were. As you can see though, they are still very optimistic about the young right-fielder. I think that is justified since he suffered from quite a bit of statistical bad luck last season, but I think we all know that he still has some adjustments that he needs to make at the plate before he'll likely achieve that projection. Offensively, Janish is a black-hole, but if he's the only one and he doesn't bat 2nd, his defense is well worth having in the lineup. BP's projection is what it almost always is. I'd like to see more power from Rolen, but I think that ship has sailed. Votto is...well...awesome.

**Left Field**
Name	2009 Projection	2009 Actual	2010 Projection
Name	AVG/OBP/SLG	AVG/OBP/SLG	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG
Wladimir Balentien	.239/.312/.444	.234/.305/.385	160	.244/.316/.431
Jonny Gomes	.251/.356/.486	.267/.338/.541	278	.245/.331/.486
Darnell McDonald	N/A	.267/.306/.400	174	.270/.321/.414
Laynce Nix	N/A	.239/.291/.476	214	.257/.309/.467

Based on these projections, there aren't a lot of outstanding prospects for a typically high offensive position like left field. I'd still like to see Gomes brought back, especially given these other options. However, I'm also not convinced that Balentien can't outperform those projections. I'm not sure if he's good enough for an everyday starter role, but I think he could potentially put up a little more power.

**Center Field**
Name	2009 Projection	2009 Actual	2010 Projection
Name	AVG/OBP/SLG	AVG/OBP/SLG	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG
Chris Dickerson	.268/.360/.454	.275/.370/.373	254	.276/.372/.429
Drew Stubbs	N/A	.267/.323/.439	544	.267/.336/.390
Willy Taveras	.267/.323/.315	.240/.275/.285	277	.271/.322/.321

To be honest with you, I'd give Chris Dickerson the starting job in center field next year, if I thought he would stay healthy. I wouldn't be upset if Drew Stubbs is out there, especially if his power surge last season is real (the James Projections don't think so). Willy Taveras should be gone.

**Catcher**
Name	2009 Projection	2009 Actual	2010 Projection
Name	AVG/OBP/SLG	AVG/OBP/SLG	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG
Ryan Hanigan	.275/.357/.382	.263/.361/.331	344	.277/.361/.366
Ramon Hernandez	.253/.319/.411	.258/.336/.362	120	.260/.328/.405

Surely no one thinks that Hernandez is worth $8 million more than Hanigan next season.

What do you think? Are they way off anywhere? Does this change your opinion of any of the players?

Searching for the Astros Skipper, Weekend Rundown

davoag — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 15:24:26 -0000

Six candidates interviewed in the past three days, and five of them haven't been profiled yet. But before we move on to that, I thought it'd be constructive to get a historical perspective on the job they're interviewing for. What do these guys need to do to become the best manager of the 18 in Astro history? Here's a handy reference chart:

Most wins by a Houston manager: Bill Virdon, 544

Most playoff appearances: Larry Dierker, 4

Most seasons at the helm: Bill Virdon, 8

Most wins in career (non-Houston): Leo Durocher, 2,008

First up on the managerial rewind is Bob Melvin, former Arizona Diamondbacks skipper:

Bob Melvin
     Age: 47
     Hometown: Palo Alto, Calif.
     College: California.
     Most recent job: Manager of the Arizona Diamondbacks.
     Previous Major League managing experience: Managed the Seattle Mariners in 2003-04 and Arizona Diamondbacks from 2005 until he was dismissed on May 9 of this year after a 12-17 start. He won 93 games with Seattle in 2003 but didn't make the playoffs and lost 99 games the following year. Melvin was hired by the Diamondbacks and led Arizona to the 2007 NL West title before being swept in the NLCS by the Colorado Rockies. He was NL Manager of the Year in 2007.
     Minor League managing experience: None.
     Minor League managing record: None.
     Playing experience: Melvin spent most of his career as a backup catcher for 10 seasons with Detroit, San Francisco, Baltimore, Kansas City, Boston, the New York Yankees and Chicago White Sox. He hit .233 with 35 homers and 212 RBIs in 692 career games.
    Did you know: Melvin was hired by Arizona to replace Wally Backman, who was dismissed before he managed a single game because of past discretions?
     What GM Ed Wade said: "Once we started to focus in on some names and we did our homework and talked to people like Pat Gillick and [former Diamondbacks general manager] Joe Garagolia Jr., they thought he did a good job."

Melvin was a hot candidate when he landed with Seattle back in 2003, but had an up-and-down tenure in Arizona. He did usher in a bunch of kids and helped the D'Backs to win the 2007 NL West title, but he also oversaw the under-development of guys like Chris Young and Stephen Drew. His bullpen management was also spotty, mainly because he constantly changed closers due to injuries and ineffectiveness.

The interesting thing about Melvin is he had almost the exact opposite situation in Arizona that he'd have here in Houston. Out there, his rotation consisted of Brandon Webb, Randy Johnson and Dan Haren for at least part of his tenure. That's three top-flight starters breezing through town, while his offense struggled for the most part. Arizona finished 14th in runs scored in 2007, 10th in 2008 and though the D'Backs finished 9th in 2009, they also gave up the third-most runs in the league. For comparison, they gave up the fifth-least runs in both 2007 and 2008.

So, though his offense did trend upwards over the past three seasons, once they lost Webb and Johnson, the D'Backs pitching fell off a cliff. I wonder how much discussion went into what he'd do with Houston's rotation?

Moving on to the next candidate, Phil Garner:

Phil Garner
     Age: 60
     Hometown: Jefferson City, Tenn.
     College: Tennessee.
     Most recent job: Manager of the Astros
     Previous Major League managing experience: Garner managed for more than 14 years in the Majors, spending eight seasons in Milwaukee (1992-1999) and two full seasons in Detroit (2000-01) before being dismissed six games into 2002 season. He took over the Astros at the All-Star break in 2004 and led them to the NLCS and a year later to the World Series. He was let go with 31 games left in the 2007 season and has been out of baseball since.
     Major League managing record: 985-1,054.
     Minor League managing experience: None.
     Minor League managing record: None.
     Playing experience: Spent 16 seasons in the Major Leagues with Oakland, Pittsburgh, Houston, the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco and hit .260 with 109 homers and 738 RBIs in 1,860 games. He helped Pittsburgh to the 1979 World Series title by hitting .500 in the World Series. He played with the Astros from 1981-87 and appeared in more games with the Astros than he did with any other team.
    Did you know: Garner became a candidate after calling Astros president of baseball operations Tal Smith to recommend Bob Melvin for the job?
     What GM Ed Wade said: "I've known Phil since we crossed paths in 1981 when I went to the Pirates and he was there. I've been a big fan from afar in Detroit and then here his record speaks for itself. He's a tremendous candidate."

Not going to spend too much time on Scrap Iron, but suffice it to say, he's got an interesting candidacy. Using that whole good cop, bad cop theory of coach hiring, Garner was the perfect, laid-back guy to get the manager's job from Jimy Williams, who was a little more on the prickly side. After Gar was Cecil Cooper, who turned out to have his own prickly side. Naturally, the team thought of the laid-back Garner again...wait, what? I've stopped trying to think about why they'd consider a guy they fired so recently, so let's just move on...

Next up is Pete Mackanin:

Pete Mackanin
     Age: 58
     Hometown: Chicago.
     College: Illinois.
     Most recent job: Currently the bench coach for the Philadelphia Phillies.
     Previous Major League managing experience: Has been interim manager twice, with Pittsburgh in 2005 and Cincinnati in 2007. He went 12-14 in the final 26 games with the Pirates in '05 and 41-39 in the second half of the season two years later with the Reds, who had the worst record in the Majors when Mackanin took over.
     Major League managing record: 53-53.
     Minor League managing experience: Managed in the Minor Leagues for 13 seasons and won championships in 1995 (Ottawa of the International League), 2002 (Lynchburg of the Carolina League) and 1990 (Nashville, Eastern Division championship of the American Association). Mackanin has also managed in Venezuela League, Dominican winter league and Puerto Rican winter league. He also has seven years of Major League coaching experience with Pittsburgh and Montreal.
     Minor League managing record: 917-849.
     Playing experience: Played for nine years as an infielder in the Major Leagues with Texas (1973-74), Montreal (1975-77), Philadelphia (1978-79) and Montreal (1980-81). He hit .226 with 30 homers and 141 RBIs in 548 career games.
      Did you know: Mackanin has been succeeded twice by Jim Tracy as a manager, with Class A Peoria in 1986 and the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2006? He succeeded Tracy as manager at Triple-A Ottawa in 1995.
     What GM Ed Wade said: "Pete served as interim manager it Pittsburgh and Cincinnati and had great results taking over in Cincinnati. I talked to Wayne Krivsky, who as the GM [in Cincinnati] at the time, and he was a really big advocate of Pete's. He has managing experience in winter, extensively in the Minor Leagues and on two Major League club. He has a great personality and a good sense of humor."

The most interesting thing about Mackanin was what he did with the 2007 Reds. That team had 51 losses when he took over in July and went on to win 41 of their last 80 games. Basically, Mackanin played .500 ball for the last half of the season. Of course, those same Reds finished above the league average in runs scored in 2007 but dead last in runs allowed. The Reds were hitting .254 as a team when Mackanin took over and finished by hitting .279 over the last three months of the season, including a team line of .309/.375/.499 in August. Good seasons by Scott Hatteberg, Brandon Phillips, Edwin Encarnacion and Josh Hamilton show that Mackanin has experience getting the most out of some very different personalities.

Still, the pitching woes of the Reds that season is at least a little troubling. Mackanin used his bullpen for 263 innings and had an ERA above 5 with his relievers in the second half. His overall ERA jumped up to 5.11 from 4.79 as well, though he basically had to cobble together a rotation behind Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo. This is definitely another case of a guy who needs to answer quite a few questions about what he sees with the Astros pitching staff.

Next is former Astros shortstop Tim Bogar:

Tim Bogar
     Age: 45
     Hometown: Indianapolis, Ind.
     College: Eastern Illinois.
     Most recent job: Currently first -base coach for Boston Red Sox.
     Previous Major League managing experience: None.
     Major League managing record: None.
     Minor League managing experience: Spent four seasons as manager in the Minor Leagues with Cleveland (2006-07) and the Astros (2004-05) and went to the playoff in three of those seasons. Led Double-A Akron to the Eastern League title in '06 and '07 and was named the league's Manager of the Year in '06. He was named Manger of the Year in the Appalachian League in 2004 in his first year of managing at Class A Greeneville. The next year, he led Class A Lexington to an 81-58 record, the best record in the South Atlantic League.
     Minor League managing record: 289-200.
     Playing experience: An infielder who spent nine years in the Major Leagues with the New York Mets, the Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers, Bogar hit .228 with 24 homers and 161 RBIs in 701 career games. He started a career-high 82 games at shortstop for the Astros in 2000 whiles sharing time with Julio Lugo.
    Did you know: Bogar played all nine positions in an exhibition game for the Mets against Triple-A Norfolk in 1996?
     What GM Ed Wade said: "When this process started, a lot of people spoke very favorable of Tim. I don't know him, but certainly there are multiple people, including people on our interview committee and [president of baseball operations] Tal [Smith] and others, that felt Bogar fit the profile extremely well. Despite the fact he hasn't managed in the big leagues, they felt the experience they had with him and dealing with players [was positive]."

Bogar brings back fond memories of that late '90s playoff era, and has been a surprisingly effective minor league manager. The thing that sticks out to me was a couple years after he retired, he visited the Astros in Kissimmee as a Rawlings sales representative. The irony of a guy known for his glovework selling gloves to teams was not lost on me at the time.

Yet another anecdote I recall from his time with the Astros: some time in that playoff run (I believe it was 1997), Bogar broke his arm and had to spend the rest of the season on the bench. He credited Dierker with helping him see the field as a manager at the time, and claimed it helped him play smarter when he was on the field. Since he never hit much, it was nice to think our shorstop was sort of a manager on the field, and I remember Dierker praising his acumen on helping the fielders around him. Of course, I cannot now find any evidence of this. Still, I do recall reading about that back in the day.

I'm not sure what Bogar's strengths or weaknesses as a manager might be. We can assume that he'd help their fielding, but that's too simple a conjecture to really be true. Plus, the Astros have actually been a pretty good fielding club for the past couple of seasons. For all the grief I've given Tejada for the past two seasons, he's a good defender. Yes, he doesn't really have the range to play short any more, but he's a vacuum cleaner out there when the ball is hit near him.

Lastly, let's look at Brad Mills, bench coach for the Boston Red Sox:

Brad Mills
     Age: 52
     Hometown: Exeter, Calif.
     College: College of the Sequoias/University of Arizona.
     Most recent job: Currently bench coach for the Boston Red Sox.
     Previous Major League managing experience: None.
     Major League managing record: None.
     Minor League managing experience: Mills managed 11 seasons in the Minor Leagues in the Cubs (1987-92), Rockies (1993-96) and Dodgers (2002) organizations, moving into managing immediately upon the completion of his playing career. He led the Rockies' Triple-A club in Colorado Springs to the playoffs in 1994 and Pacific Coast League title in 1995. He last managed in 2002, when he guided the Dodgers' Triple- A Las Vegas affiliate to a club-record 85 wins the PCL's Southern Division championship.
     Minor League managing record: Unavailable.
     Playing experience: Appeared in 106 career games over four seasons, all with the Montreal Expos (1980-1983). He hit .256 with one homer and 12 RBIs in 168 at-bats.
     Did you know: Mills was Nolan Ryan's 3,509th career strikeout victim, lifting Ryan past Walter Johnson as baseball's all-time strikeout king in 1983?
     What GM Ed Wade said: "I've always had great respect for Brad. [Boston manager] Terry Francona made a point of calling me when the search began and gave a strong endorsement for Millsy and he got a strong endorsement from [Boston general manager] Theo Epstein. Despite the fact he hasn't managed the big-league level, everyone knows he's got tremendous experience working as [Francona's] right-hand guy in Philadelphia and Boston and managed in the Minor Leagues."

It's easy to assume that the bench coach is the guy next in line for the managerial position. After all, that's what Cecil Cooper did for all those years and it's what a ton of other guys have done over the years (Joe Maddon, possibly? I can't remember anything today). Still, it appears that the pitching coach in Boston, John Farrell, is the heir-apparent to Francona and not Mills. That explains why he'd be interested in our position. Now, why should the Astros care about him? Was this interview just a way to get Bogar on the docket?

Mills is right in the middle of the candidate pool, age-wise. He's not as young as Manny Acta or Bogar, nor is he as old as Garner or Mackanin. He's won consistently in the minor leagues and certainly has been around a winning ball club there in Boston. The Red Sox run their organization the way I'd hope the Astros will someday, making decisions based partly on numbers and partly on traditional scouting. They spend a ton of money, but they just don't throw it around too frivolously (ahem*Dice-K*ahem). How much contact Mills has with this side of the team, I don't know. The other side of that coin is, if that's what Mills is used to, can he work for the Astros, who don't seem to run their team in quite the same way? Food for thought.

Thus endeth Round One. With the word that Manny Acta is a finalist for the Cleveland job, are the Astros now taking too long in their search? What could a second round of interviews possibly tell them that this one didn't? We've already got to wait until after the World Series to announce who the new skipper is, but that doesn't mean they can't go ahead and hire them ahead of time and announce it later. What's your top five list of the candidates and who do you think will end up getting hired?

Poll

Who is your top candidate?

Tim Bogar

34 votes

Pete Mackanin

16 votes

Manny Acta

39 votes

Brad Mills

20 votes

Bob Melvin

25 votes

Al Pedrique

2 votes

Dave Clark

6 votes

Phil Garner

64 votes

Ned Yost

19 votes

Randy Ready

1 votes

226 votes | Poll has closed