SB Nation - Adam Dunn

Should the Washington Nationals Spend $20 Million This Winter Just Because They Have It?

Dave at Nats News Network — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 20:52:50 -0000

More photos » by Manuel Balce Ceneta - AP

3 months ago: FILE - In this July 13, 2009 file photo, Washington Nationals vice president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo, left, and president Stan Kasten, speak during a news conference discussing the team's managerial situation in Washington. After 5 1/2 months of doing the work of the Washington Nationals' general manager, Mike Rizzo is getting the title, too, sources in Major League Baseball familiar with the Nationals' plans said Wednesday, Aug. 19, 2009. (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta, File)

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There are plenty in the Natosphere that want Mike Rizzo and the Washington Nationals to make a big splash and sign a bunch of free agents this winter to improve the product on the field.

After two-straight 100-loss seasons, I'm sure Rizzo is tempted to make a run at Matt Holliday, John Lackey, etc. But prudence, rather than exuberance, should rule the day.

If you take a good look at the Nats 2010 lineup, the hitters are credible enough to imitate a wild card caliber team.

But should the brass spend $20 million this winter just because they have it?

The answer, after the jump...

If Nyjer Morgan can replicate his season from last year (minus the season-ending injury) and Cristian Guzman has one .300-hitting season left in him, those are decent enough table setters in front of All-Star 3B Ryan Zimmerman and sluggers Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham.

The six-seven-eight hitters are going to be a combination of Elijah Dukes in right field, Jesus Flores (once healthy) at catcher, and Ian Desmond at shortstop.

Solid at the plate, and somewhat better in the field with Desmond replacing Guzman at short, and the Guz sliding over to second base.

And as long as "Running" Jim Riggleman doesn't call for a suicide squeeze every other game they should score enough runs to field a fairly competitive offense, just like last season.

Combine that with the prospect of having a couple of really decent trade chips at this year's deadline (Dunn, Willingham), and some of the minor league talent starting to show (Espinosa, Norris), the Nats have a reason to feel somewhat optimistic about the future of the lineup.

The problem is pitching, both starting and relieving.

Rizzo went on record last summer stating a preference for finding two starters to take some of the pressure of youngsters John Lannan, Ross Detwiler, Garrett Mock, Collin Balester, J.D. Martin, Craig Stammen at the major league level, while not rushing the more highly regarded prospects still in the minors, such as Stephen Strasburg, Aaron Thompson, Brad Meyers, et al.

And there's even more talent in the lower minors, with '09 draftees Trevor Holder and A.J. Morris just coming into their first full season as professionals.

Should the Nats spend $20 million this off-season, just because they have it?

Already one of the lower payrolls in the big leagues, the Nats see at least that much coming off the books this season, as the contracts of Dmitri Young, Ronnie Belliard, Nick Johnson, and Austin Kearns all either expired, were traded, or bought out.

They could even afford to offer Scott Olsen arbitration, get stuck with a 25-year old lefty recovering from shoulder surgery, and still have monopoly money to throw around.

But again, should they?

There are two "Type A" free agent starters available this season, John Lackey and Randy Wolf. Signing either would require the Nats to surrender their second round draft pick in the 2010 draft.

For a club whose best players are still several years from their prime, this doesn't seem to be prudent to me.

There are a bunch of "Type B" starters available that might be interesting, costing the Nats a little less, a second round pick. But most of these players are either injury cases (Erik Bedard, Justin Duchscherer, Rich Harden, Carl Pavano), old (Randy Johnson, Andy Pettitte), of questionable pedigree (Doug Davis, Braden Looper, Jason Marquis, Joel Piniero), or just bat-guano crazy (Vicente Padilla).

Do the Nats give up a chunk of the future to acquire any of these gentlemen? There's not a name in there that doesn't scare me to one degree or another.

And if the Type B's frighten, you can imagine what the rest of the list looks like. Reclamation projects, one-hit wonders, and former Nats (Odalis Perez or Daniel Cabrera, anyone?).

My advice to Rizzo? If you want to take a chance rolling the dice on Doug Davis, Joel Piniero or Jarrod Washburn, and can do it reasonably, via con dios.

Otherwise, let the stable of young guys that you have fight it out again this season, bolster your bullpen with the rest, wait for Jordan Zimmermann to recover from Tommy John surgery and Stephen Strasburg and Drew Storen to arrive next season, THEN supplement with a veteran starter.

Just because you have $20 million to spend, doesn't mean you should.

Poll

Should the Nats spend a lot of money this off-season on players that won't be around when their core of young players are in their prime?

Interview with Derek Carty from The Hardball Times-Part 2

raygu — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 14:00:12 -0000

Here is part 2 of the 4-part interview with Derek Carty from The Hardball Times:

Fake Teams: I see you are not a fan of FIP for evaluating starting pitchers and like LIPS instead. Where does one find the LIPS calculated? I haven't seen it published as widely as FIPS.

Derek Carty: Unfortunately, LIPS isn't available anywhere publically - not right now, anyway. It was published in HEATER Magazine this past season for their subscribers, and occasionally I'll post a leaderboard at THTF, but we don't currently have it on our stat pages. There is some good news on this front, though, for those looking for LIPS. There are preliminary plans in the works to sell a StatPack, of sorts, at THT Fantasy later this off-season. This StatPack will include scores of interesting data for fantasy owners to peruse and use for their draft preparations. I'm planning to include a lot of my homemade stats (some of which I'll discuss a bit later in this interview), LIPS, and a bunch of other goodies. I'm hoping this will be an invaluable tool for fantasy owners.

Back on topic, you're absolutely right about me: I am 100% opposed to FIP for fantasy analysis. I believe you're referring to this article that I wrote, but to summarize my stance, FIP uses a pitcher's actual HRs- a huge ‘no-no'. Analysis has found (not even all that recently) that a pitcher has very little control over his HR/FB rate. He does have a lot of control over how many balls get hit on the ground (which obviously can't become HRs), but once a ball is put in the air, the pitcher has relatively little control over whether it clears the fences for a HR. FIP doesn't account for this, making it extremely inaccurate for pitchers with abnormal HR/FB rates and merely somewhat inaccurate for everyone else. While I understand LIPS isn't readily available right now, xFIP is, and this at least adjusts for HR/FB, if not for everything that LIPS does. Baseball Prospectus's QERA is also a solid choice. I can't help but cringe every time I see a statistically-inclined site mention FIP in regard to predicting future performance or in discussing luck. There's nothing unlucky about a pitcher with a 5.00 ERA and a 4.00 FIP if his HR/FB is 4%.

More after the jump:

Fake Teams: Recently I have written a few articles on what stats help one to predict wins for a starting pitcher, and realized there really is not one single stat that does it. What stats do you look at when targeting starting pitchers?

Derek Carty: To be completely honest with you, I ignore Wins entirely. They are so riddled with noise that I don't bother with them at all. They don't even get a glance from me. If I'm looking to gauge a pitcher's win potential, I'll check out an expected Win stat I've whipped up, comprised mostly of the skills of the pitcher and the quality of his offense. As far as his skills go, strikeout rate, walk rate, and groundball rate are the three biggies. They are under the pitcher's control much more than other stats are. This probably isn't big news to your readers, however, who I imagine are pretty familiar with DIPS Theory (if not, feel free to shoot me an e-mail. I'd be happy to discuss).

As I said earlier, though, I'm not always content with sticking to what's available - sometimes I like to take things a step or two further. Last year, I did this for pitchers with the ‘creation', if you will, of CAPS (Context Adjusted Pitching Statistics). CAPS still focuses on defense-independent stats like Ks, BBs, and GBs, but it seeks to remove even more noise from the equation - from the peripheral stats themselves. For example, a pitcher facing a disproportionate amount of Adam Dunn-type hitters will strikeout and walk a disproportionate number of batters and allow too many flyballs and home runs. Because the act of facing these kinds of batters isn't a skill of the pitcher's, we should adjust for it. After all, his mix of batters going forward is likely to be randomized, not marred with 3TO hitters like Dunn. Last off-season, I rigged up CAPS to adjust for home ballpark, mix of road ballparks, quality of opposition, and league changes. CAPS totally nailed Javier Vazquez - who was critical to my LABR strategy and success - among a few others, and I believe the logic and reasoning behind it is quite sound. Without divulging too much, this off-season I plan on bringing several more context adjustments into the mix as well as creating a CAPS of sorts for hitters (CABS, I suppose it'll be called). I'm currently in the research process now for some of these adjustments and am very excited for what CAPS could end up turning up.

Finally, I'll occasionally mix in a few somewhat subjective feelings based upon PITCHf/x data. If I really like the pitches a guy is throwing or something else the about the data, I might put a little asterisk next to his name on my sheet, even if he hasn't totally proven himself yet. Call him a sleeper or an upside pick or whatever you wish, but that's the general idea. Max Scherzer was a guy I really liked this year despite his lack of a real track record. I particularly loved the change-up he throws. Zack Greinke was another - four good pitches and a fantastic slider. Until we can really build some predictive models out of PITCHf/x, though, this kind of thing will be merely supplementary to the hard numbers, at least for me.

Lessons In Motivation From Washington Nationals' Manager Jim Riggleman And Bench Coach John McLaren.

Ed Chigliak — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 03:17:40 -0000

More photos » by Haraz N. Ghanbari - AP

Washington Nationals' Manager Jim Riggleman will be starting his first full season as the DC Skipper this Spring with former boss John McLaren as his bench coach. (AP Photo/Haraz N. Ghanbari)

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As another 100+ loss season came to a close in September '09, Jim Riggleman, on two occasions, attempted to motivate the Washington Nationals through the press, as he had once earlier last season behind closed doors. Washington Post writer Chico Harlan in an 9.3.09 article entitled, "Nats Slip Against Padres, Fall For Sixth Straight", quoted Mr. Riggleman expressing his belief that the team, which had just dropped seven of nine, including six in a row on a west coast road trip, needed to motivate itself:

"'We did this once earlier. I think our guys said, 'Enough is enough.' And I think we've got to do that now. At some point you just have to say, 'We're not going to get beat.' You have to will yourself to a win and not accept it. I know sometimes we think of down the road. We've got a lot of good parts for the future and all that, but when you're playing tonight, people pay to get into that ballgame, never mind next year. You've got to win that ballgame tonight.'"

The Nationals responded by going 5-10 in the next 15 games...

The Nationals responded by going 5-10 in the next 15 games...and after what Mr. Riggleman described to MLB.com's Bill Ladson in an article entitled, "Riggleman not satified after Nats' loss", as a "lackluster performance" in the fifteenth game of that stretch, a 6-2 9.20.09 loss to the NY Mets, the Nationals' manager again challenged his players, questioning the effort they had given on the field that day:

"'We were flat, and it's just not acceptable. We were down a run and it was almost like, 'Let's see what we can do here to get through it.' I just wasn't pleased with the overall intensity of the game.""

DC slugger Adam Dunn, who struggled mightily in September, hitting just .212 with 3 doubles, 3 HR's and 14 RBI's in his last 99 at bats, might have taken what Jim Riggleman said personally, but instead, in one of the many signs of the leadership role the first-year National assumed in 2009, Dunn defended his own effort along with that of his teammates, telling Washington Post writer Chico Harlan, as quoted in a Nationals Journal post entitled, "Riggleman Says Nats Were Flat In 6-2 Loss", that he didn't necessarily agree with the DC Skipper's assessment:

"I was in the game; I'm not going to sit here and say I was flat because I don't think I was and I can only speak for myself. As far as the team -- I don't think we came out... I'm gonna say no, I don't think we were flat. I don't. I just think that we ran into some guys that pitched pretty good, we weren't swinging the bats really well, and I think that's the problem...

"...We've playing one-hundred-and-X amount of games. Why would we decide on Sunday whatever-the-day-is to not play hard? That's bulls---. That's one thing we do. Winning or losing, we do play hard."

The Nationals would respond by losing five of the next six games before going on a season-ending, seven-game-win-streak, their second-longest of the season. The longest streak came earlier in the '09 campaign, back in July. The Nationals, who'd lost 7 of 9 after Mr. Riggleman replaced Manny Acta, were coming off a 6-2 loss to the San Diego Padres in which they'd committed 4 errors, when MLB.com's Bill Ladson wrote, in an article entitled, "Pair of homers not enough for the Nationals", that Mr. Riggleman, "...was not happy after the game," and was once again, "...frustrated with his players' effort."

This time, however, the manager kept the conversation between himself and his players. MLB.com's Mr. Ladson held this first intervention by the new Nationals' manager as the prime example of "What Went Right" in 2009 in an season-ending article entitled, "Late burst doesn't benefit Nationals" where Mr. Ladson writes that:

"Unlike past years in Nationals history, Riggleman is one skipper who held players accountable for mistakes they made on the field. Case in point: on July 24, Riggleman was not happy after a 6-2 loss to the Padres, frustrated with his players' effort. It didn't help that Washington made four errors and committed a passed ball in the outcome. He reamed them out, and the Nats went on to win 12 out of their next 14 games."

When Mr. Riggleman addressed his conversation with the players, back in Mr. Ladson's article entitled, "Pair of homers not enough for the Nationals", the manager told the MLB.com's writer that he couldn't go into detail about what he'd said to the team:

"'Children listen to [the postgame show], so I can't tell you what I said to them,' Riggleman said. 'It was just a bad effort. You hate to even try to look for the silver lining. It was particularly bad early. We just weren't ready, and that's on me. I can't accept that. ... I had a lot to say to them, but that's beside the point.'"

The Nationals certainly got the message behind Mr. Riggleman's reaming, as DC backstop Josh Bard told reporters, including Mr. Ladson, who quoted the catcher stating:

The fans don't deserve to see us play sloppy like that...We played one of our worst games. ... We have to get better...You have to play the game the right way and control what you can control. It's not a quick fix.'"

Just as important as the Nationals getting Riggleman's point, was the fact that Mr. Riggleman, himself, had clearly learned a lesson from his last managing gig. If Riggleman's reaming of the Nationals was anything like that which former Seattle Mariners' manager John McLaren, (who'd employed Riggleman as his bench coach), shared with the Seattle media just a year earlier, two weeks before he was replaced by Riggleman, it's probably a good thing he decided to spare the children who might have been listening the shock, but at least it's good to know that if Mr. Riggleman needs someone on his coaching staff to let the players have it this season, he'll know where to turn...

(ed. note - "What follows is a link to June 5, 2008 press conference Mr. McLaren conducted two weeks before he was relieved of his duties as the Mariners' manager and replaced by Mr. Riggleman...It is definitely rated NC-17 and NSFW, so I've included a humorously edited transcript, but feel free to enjoy the pure anger and frustration one more time as you get a look at the sort of fire Mr. McLaren will be bringing to the Nationals' bench in twenty-ten:

• LINK - YouTube - "McLaren loses it."

• Transcript:

"McLaren: "We're playing our [expletive deleted] off every day, and got nothing to show for it. I'm tired of [expletive deleted] losing, and i'm tired of getting my [expletive deleted] beat and so are those guys. We're going to change this [expletive delete] [expletive deleted] around and get after it, and only we can do it. The fans are [expletive deleted] off, and I'm [expletive deleted] off and the players are [expletive deleted] off, and that's the way it is. There's no [expletive deleted] easy way out of this, can't feel sorry for ourselves, gotta [expletive deleted] buckle it up and get after it. Tired of [expletive deleted] losing this [expletive deleted] game every night, and we bust our [expletive deleted], it's gotta be a total team [expletive deleted] effort to turn this thing around and that's it...")

Thanks for the Stories

Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 04:01:12 -0000

As a writer (very loose term there), I find there are certain topics and people that I can easily fall back on because there is plenty of material and interest in them. I would like to thank the following people and topics for making my job (another term used loosely) easier:

Miguel Olivo
Zack Greinke
Derek Jeter
Derek Jeter's Defense
Yankee's Payroll
Umpires
Omar Minaya
Steve Phillips
Dayton Moore
Dusty Baker
Bud Selig
Mets' Training Staff
Adam Dunn
Trading Roy Halladay
Joe Morgan
Jeff Francoeur
Milton Bradley's OBP/Temper
The designated hitter

I am sure there are a few candidates I missed, but just keeping up with the above list will keep me writing for a while.

Top 5 Reasons For Washington Nationals' Fans To Be Thankful...

Ed Chigliak — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 19:07:10 -0000

More photos » by Nick Wass - AP

One day, crowds like this in Nationals Park will not be made up of the opposing team's fans. One day...soon? Photo: Friday, May 15, 2009, in Washington. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)

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Whenever any fan of the Washington Nationals expresses optimism about the future, it's met with skepticism from the rest of the baseball world, and as a fan of the Montreal Expos, who's followed along for over 30 years with no return on the investment of time and patience, I think it's understandable that others should wonder where any sort of enthusiasm originates...With that in mind, and for all those who casually laugh off any hope of a postseason or Wild Card berth for the nation's capital's favorite baseball team, I present....

The Top 5 Reasons For Washington Nationals' Fans To Be Thankful...

5. Ryan Zimmerman Is Locked Up Long Term...

After much deliberation and several attempts at negotiations, the Washington Nationals and their first 1st Round pick, third baseman and Face of the Franchise™, Ryan Zimmerman, agreed on a contract extension last April that will keep the 25-year-old Virginia Beach, Virginia native in a Curly-W through 2013. The 5-year/$45 million dollar deal was agreed up in early April, and the initial response, as recorded in MLB.com's Bill Ladson's article entitled, "Nats, Zimmerman agree to extension", when Zimmerman was told of the deal that had been worked out between his agent Brodie Van Wagenen and DC team President Stan Kasten, tells you all you need to know about the man who mans the hot corner in DC...

"'Talk to Stan and Brodie -- maybe they are doing something, but I'm playing baseball.' Zimmerman said. 'I haven't heard anything.'"

Zimmerman, after agreeing to stay with Washington, went on to complete a 30-game hit streak, earn his first All-Star appearance and win his first Gold Glove and Silver Slugger while posting the highest HR total (33), AVG. (.292), OBP. (.364), SLG. (525), and by extension, OPS. (.888), best UZR/150 rating (20.1) and best WAR mark (7.1); with his second-highest RBI total and second-most doubles of his 5-year MLB career...Asked by an ESPN announcer after receiving the Gold Glove why he decided to stay in DC, the FoF™ responded:

"Ryan Zimmerman: Uh, I like it there. I think, uh, you know, obviously things aren't going like we want it to go now, I think, but part of the cool thing I think, is that you know, I'm gonna be there when times are bad, and, you know, in a couple years I'm going to be there when times are good, so I kinda see everything full circle, and can be a part of everything, you know, the good, the bad, and kind of grow up there and it's uh, it's a good fit for me?"

4. The Nationals Came Through For The DC Faithful And Inked Stephen Strasburg.

He wanted $60 million dollars. His agent Scott "Maximum" Boras was determined to destroy the slotting system. There was no way a pitcher as good as Stephen Strasburg would agree on a deal with the Nationals. Heck, even Aaron Crow had decided to take his chances, taking a year off competitive baseball to avoid becoming a National, and he was no Strasburg...and yet, on deadline day to sign draft picks, with just minutes left, then-Interim GM Mike Rizzo and the Nationals got Strasburg to sign, inking a record-breaking 4-year/$15.1 million dollar deal that included a $7.5 million dollar signing bonus. The #1 prospect, the best pitcher to come through the draft in recent memory, the flame-throwing 100mph+ fastballer, the kid with a change so good he couldn't use it in college, saw something he liked, (even it was an opportunity to play out his first contract as quickly as possible) and decided to don the Curly-W...The Washington Nationals said they would take the best available player, they did and then the team went out and got the deal done. This is new, and this is something to be thankful for...

3. Mike Rizzo As DC GM.

It took former DC GM Jim Bowden's decision to (using a tired phrase) fall on his own sword and resign following several scandals, and it took a too-long interim period before it was made official, but the Washington Nationals made the right move, and after a few weeks of baseless rumors and false reports, named Mike Rizzo their full-time GM. Before becoming the permanent GM, Rizzo had managed to reshape the Nationals' bullpen, replace the team's skipper (ed. note - "Not my favorite move."), pull off a trade (Morgan/Burnett for Milledge/Hanrahan) that was the envy of GM's everywhere, sign Stephen Strasburg and oversee the entire '09 draft; which also brought 1st Round pick Drew Storen into the fold (amongst others), and instill a sense of stability and purpose that had been sorely lacking under the previous regime. Rizzo's reward was the full-time gig, a chance to pick his own Front Office and field manager, and the respect of the DC Faithful, who are waiting to see what he can pull off this winter...

2. The Adam Dunn Example.

Why would any free agent agree to come to a team that's suffered back-to-back 100-loss seasons? That's what I asked DC Skipper Jim Riggleman when given the opportunity to speak to him a few weeks back, and his answer caught me off guard, not just because he gave a good answer to an off-the-cuff and admittedly confrontational question, but because I actually sort-of-agreed with his answer:

"For some guys it’s where they're going to fit on the ball club? How bad you need that position that they play or pitch. If they are a closer, if they can come in and be the closer, instead of being a set-up guy. There are different reasons for guys to go places. They may want to be the closer, like I said...they may want to know they are coming in as the regular shortstop...or you're offering them the chance to be our catcher rather than go somewhere else and not be the regular guy, they can come here and be the regular catcher..."

The reason this inspired me, and the reason it is something for fans to be thankful for? Because it shows that the Nationals know the score...they know that the struggles the team has suffered through don't place them too high on most player's lists of potential destinations, and they recognize that they are going to have to try another approach to appeal to free agents looking for a new home...What the Nationals need to do now, in my not-so-humble opinion, is go out and find a player who expected more out of free agency, a pitcher, perhaps who thought this was his year to cash in...a shortstop who believes he's undervalued in the current market, someone who will take the best offer out there and commit themselves to being a part of the emergence of the DC franchise...in short, the next Adam Dunn.

1. We Aren't New York Mets' Fans!!!!!.

Happy Thanksgiving!!! Alright, the real No. 1 reason was going to be that no team in DC baseball history had suffered back-to-back-to-back 100-loss campaigns, but I had only looked at the Expos' past of the current franchise and the Washington Senators/Minnesota Twins' franchise history in DC, forgetting for a moment while I put together this list, about the Second-Senators, (who replaced the Sens/Twins and then left to become the Texas Rangers) who lost over 100 games in their first four seasons of existence (1961-1964) after they replaced the original Senators...

Happy Thanksgiving...

The Greatest Reds: #23 - #21

riverfront76 — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 17:00:14 -0000

23. Adam Dunn

Played as Red	Primary Position	Career Rank	Peak Rank	Prime Rank
2001-2008	LF, RF	24	22	19
Percent Breakdown of Value			Best Season	Best player on Reds
Hit	Field	Pitch	2004	2004, 2005, 2007
92%	8%	0%	2004	2004, 2005, 2007
Awards/Honors as a Red	Leading the League		On the Reds Leaderboard
All Star – 2002	Walks – 2008		-1st in career AB/HR ratio -2nd in career slugging percentage -4th in career home runs -6th in career on-base percentage -10th in career OPS+

The Big Donkey. Dunn was an incredibly divisive character during his time with the Reds, owing to his prodigious power, remarkably high strikeout totals, and disinterested defense. Although he was traded before the 2008 trade deadline, Dunn was consistent with his home run output, hitting 46 in 2004 before running off four straight seasons of exactly 40. However, despite the power (Dunn was also good for 25-35 doubles a year), Dunn’s run production was suspect, topping out at just 106 RBI in his peak year. The high strikeouts (led the league in each year from 2004-2006) belied a strong command of the strike zone, as Dunn was generally a lock for over 100 walks each year, leading to his on-base percentage with the Reds running 133 points higher than his career batting average. Ultimately, despite being the best Red of the first decade in the 21st century, Dunn was marked for what he couldn’t do, namely lead the Reds to a winning mark. He was traded in 2008 for Micah Owings and Wilkin Castillo.

22. Paul Derringer

Played as Red	Primary Position	Career Rank	Peak Rank	Prime Rank
1933-1942	SP	18	24	28
Percent Breakdown of Value			Best Season	Best player on Reds
Hit	Field	Pitch	1939	1935
0%	0%	100%	1939	1935
Awards/Honors as a Red	Leading the League		On the Reds Leaderboard
All Star – 1935, 1938, 1939, 1940, 1941, 1942	Home Runs Per Inning – 1933 Games Started – 1936, 1938, 1940 Games Pitched – 1936 Innings Pitched – 1938 Complete Games – 1938 W-L Percentage – 1939 Strikeout / Walk Ratio – 1939 Walks Per Inning – 1939, 1940		-3rd in career wins -3rd in career walks per inning -3rd in career innings pitched -6th in career strikeouts -35th in career ERA+

The Reds traded two washed-up players and a never-would-be to the Cardinals for Derringer and a pair of others early on in the 1933 season. Derringer’s introduction was suspect: losing 25 games with the Reds despite a 105 ERA+. He lost over 20 games the next year as well, despite improving his rate stats. Through the 1937 season, Derringer was roughly an average pitcher, with a losing record compiled for a lousy team. Over the next three seasons, Derringer was a very good #2 pitcher for a much improved team, going 66-33 with a 2.97 ERA (126 ERA+) over 904 innings in that stretch. In the 1940 World Series, Derringer was rewarded with the Game 1 starting assignment. He was knocked out of the game before recording his 5th out, allowing 5 runs. He bounced back nicely, with complete game victories in games 4 and 7, the latter a stunning 2-1 thriller. Over his 10 seasons with Cincinnati, Derringer amassed 161 wins and threw for a 111 ERA+ in over 2600 innings.

21. Ken Griffey, Sr

Played as Red	Primary Position	Career Rank	Peak Rank	Prime Rank
1973-81, 1988-90	RF, 1B, CF, LF	19	26	24
Percent Breakdown of Value			Best Season	Best player on Reds
Hit	Field	Pitch	1976	1980
88%	12%	0%	1976	1980
Awards/Honors as a Red	Leading the League		On the Reds Leaderboard
All Star MVP – 1980 All Star – 1976, 1977, 1980	N/A		-14th in career runs scored -15th in career batting average -18th in career triples -18th in career doubles -22nd in career OPS+

Presumably one of the best players ever selected in the 29th round of the amateur draft, Griffey went on to have a career that spanned 19 seasons. It’s difficult to tie together Griffey’s numbers with my standing perception of the player…it feels like something’s missing from the stats. For example, in Griffey’s first stint with the Reds, he played in a little over 1000 games. If the cumulative stats from those years are normalized to represent an average 162-game year, his stat line looks like this: 307/375/437 (125 OPS+), 162 games, 597 AB, 104 runs, 184 hits, 31 2B, 9 3B, 9 HR, 66 RBI, 23 SB, 65 BB. Good numbers, to be sure, but: A) he really only averaged 116 games played per year in that stint; and B) even bumped up to the 162 game normalization, the numbers don’t evoke visions of a starting right-fielder on one of the greatest offensive teams in baseball history. It’s possible I’m not taking the era enough into account, so maybe this is overly harsh. Additionally, the numbers seem to indicate a below-average fielder, despite Griffey’s legendary speed. Other notes: 1) in his career season of 1976, Griffey had his one great offensive season, hitting for a 140 OPS+ and adding 34 steals; 2) to his credit, Griffey’s decline was very slow, and he remained a useful hitter into his 40’s; 3) Griffey’s postseason performances were hit or miss, but overall they were on the weak side (.240 batting average, 661 OPS in 83 plate appearances); and 4) Senior had about 800 more plate appearances with the Reds than his son. And though there styles of play were as different as good be, Senior’s OPS+ with Cincy ended up at 123, just edging out Junior’s 122 mark. I’m sure this comes up a lot at family reunions, and not Junior’s lifetime 480 home run advantage.

The Top 15 Right Fielders in Reds history

1 Ken Griffey, Sr

2 Ival Goodman

3 Mike Mitchell

4 Curt Walker

5 Reggie Sanders

6 Dusty Miller

7 Paul O'Neill

8 Dave Parker

9 Greasy Neale

10 Wally Post

11 Sam Crawford

12 Johnny Wyrostek

13 Tommy Harper

14 Dave Collins

15 Tommy Griffith

Washington Nationals: Adam Dunn And Vladimir Guererro Rumors...

Ed Chigliak — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 16:30:10 -0000

More photos » by Chris Carlson - AP

Who said anything about the Nationals? Would Vladimir Guerrero make sense in DC? Not really... (AP Photo/Chris Carlson)

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MASNSports.com's Phil Wood took Phil Taylor of the Chicago Tribune to task over the weekend about the possible destination Mr. Taylor identifies for LA Angels' free agent outfielder Vladimir Guerrero in a recent article at the Boston Herald.com entitled, "Here are early projections on where top free agents will land", where he writes that the former Montreal Expos' All-Star could end up returning to the nation's capital:

"Washington has enough money to bring back the eight-time All-Star to his original franchise, making it more acceptable to trade Adam Dunn for some badly needed pitching."

Well...uh...

The Nationald do need pitching...but...the only Adam Dunn rumor I've heard so far this fall was in an stltoday.com article by St. Louis Post-Dispatch writer Joe Strauss entitled, "Cards say Bay is not a priority" where Mr. Strauss wrote that, "The Cardinals heavily scouted the Washington Nationals before last July's trade deadline and retain interest in outfielders Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham," while also noting that Dunn, "...is entering the final season of a two-year deal that pays him $12 million in 2010," which makes Dunn a good bet to be moved at the deadline if the Nationals don't try to extend him, but as far as trading Dunn before the season starts as they'd have to in order to bring in Guerr...well, why even take the idea seriously, it makes no sense as MASNSports.com's Phil Wood points out:

"Guerrero is a likely future Hall of Famer, coming off a season where he appeared in only 100 games, due to a number of nagging injuries, including a strained pectoral muscle. Out of those games, he played only two in the field, DH'ing in the rest. Most scouts who've seen Guerrero the past couple of years don't believe he can be an effective defensive player anymore, despite his past reputation."

The fact of the matter, as a lot of folks said last winter, is that both Dunn and Guerrero are probably both more suited to a DH role at this point in their respective careers, though Dunn may have extended his NL career a bit with a somewhat successful move to first late last season, but I don't see any way in which Vladi Guerrero makes sense in DC...but as a former Montreal Expos' fan, I'm willing to be convinced...

(ed. note - "By an odd coincidence, and nothing else I assume, Adam Dunn was asked for a quote about the St. Louis Cardinals' two tall starters Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright that played as a soundbite on XM's MLB Home Plate Update last week around the time the NL Cy Young was announced...This is what Dunn had to say about the two right-handers against whom he's hit in 11 of 40 at bats (.275 AVG) with 1 double, 2 HR's, 4 RBI's, 10 walks and 12 K's... Dunn's opinion of Carpenter and Wainwright:

"They're both the exact same. They both have a big devastating curve ball, they have a really good slider, and uh, if they really want to mess you up they'll throw a changeup, so, they, uh, they're the exact same so..."

"Why Dunn, in particular, was asked, I'm not sure...")

Why Would John Lackey Want To Pitch For The Washington Nationals?

Ed Chigliak — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 18:31:58 -0000

More photos » by Haraz N. Ghanbari - AP

Can DC GM Mike Rizzo and newly-named permanent field manager Jim Riggleman convince top notch free agents to join the Washington Nationals this winter? . (AP Photo/Haraz N. Ghanbari)

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I was eager to read MLB.com's Bill Ladson's latest article entitled, "Nats interested in free agent Lackey", to see if the Nationals were seriously pursuing 31-year-old free agent pitcher John Lackey until I got to the second paragraph which listed the Los Angeles Angels, Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees and New York Mets as the other teams who have expressed an interest in acquiring the services of the (possibly) former LA Angels' starter. DC GM Mike Rizzo explains in the article that in order to draw a top-notch free agent to DC:

"'You have to show the veteran pitcher what the plan is, our plan for success, how we are built to perform at this level at this given time.

'We have to have a special type of veteran pitcher, who is willing to give of himself as a teacher and mentor type of guy. We have to get a team-oriented person, a person that is going to give his time and his knowledge. It's not an easy task.'"

(cont.)...

Nationals' Manager Jim Riggleman responded to a similar question, (which I asked), about attracting free agents during a conference call with DC area internet writers last week, by explaining that a team can also appeal to prospective players by offering them a position that might not be available elsewhere. On XM's Inside Pitch this afternoon, Kevin Kennedy's co-host Casey Stern addressed such thinking when talking about where free agent reliever Mike Gonzalez might end up:

"(The Nationals) know they need one, (a closer), Mike MacDougal was doing it, the cagey vet over the course of the stretch of the season, Gonzalez knows the National League East, he pitched there, all that's a fit, but I'll be honest, I saw Gonzalez's name and I'm like, man, would a team like the Yankees overpay him to set up, where he could even get possibly double the money that he would get to close from a team like the Nationals..."

Mr. Rizzo, back in MLB.com's Bill Ladson's article, explains that the, "...additions of an Adam Dunn, a Josh Willingham and Nyjer Morgan, it's going to attract some veteran players." But even with Dunn, Willingham and Morgan (for a short time) in the lineup, the Nationals lost over 100 games last year for the second-straight season, I'm having a hard time imagining that any of the top free agent pitchers on the market are going to settle for less in DC. The Nationals' front office has drawn all sorts of talented people in this offseason, but I still think they're going to have to produce on the field before the players start to consider joining what is for two years running now, baseball's worst team...

(ed. note - "DC GM Mike Rizzo had John Lackey on a list of potential targets as far back as early September, telling Washington Post writer Thomas Boswell, in an article entitled, "Time to Make the Most of This Horror Show", that the Nationals were looking at:

"'...Jason Marquis, Randy Wolf, John Lackey, Cliff Lee, Jon Garland, Kevin Millwood, Tim Hudson, Brad Penny, Joel Piñeiro, Braden Looper, Jarrod Washburn, Brandon Webb, Brett Myers (and) John Smoltz...'"

...and promising that though, "Some of them may have club options that are going to be picked up...We're going to get one of them." You have to love Mr. Rizzo's confidence, and if it's not Lackey, there are still 13 other arms on that list...The Nationals just have to find the pitching equivalent of Adam Dunn, a free agent who expected more out of the market, and will accept the best offer on the table...")

Washington Nationals' Elijah Dukes Gets Ejected...+ Rumorville.

Ed Chigliak — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 06:33:32 -0000

More photos » by John Amis - AP

After homering in his first DWL game last night, Elijah Dukes K'd three times and got ejected yesterday in his second game with the Tigres del Licey. (AP Photo/John Amis)

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Day 2 In The DWL For Dukes...

• Elijah Dukes had three at bats to try to make sense of the junk that veteran MLB lefty John Halama was throwing this afternoon in the Sunday Tigres del Licey v Aguilas Cibaenas Dominican Winter League matchup. Dukes never did figure out Halama's offspeed and breaking balls, and after the third straight K, this one backwards, he got himself tossed for arguing about where the bottom of the strike zone was with home plate umpire Justin Vogel. The Nationals' 25-year-old cannon-armed outfielder's down in the DWL to learn how to hit the sort of stuff Halama was throwing. In his first DWL game last night, Dukes hit a two-run HR in his second AB with the Tigres, but today, Halama and a few questionable strikes got the best of the enigmatic outfielder...

• In what, at times, felt like an franchise-history-spanning intra-squad game between current and former Washington Nationals with Dukes, Halama, Wily Mo Pena, Bernie Castro, Daniel Cabrera, Emilio Bonifacio, Anderson Hernandez, Kory Casto and pitching prospect Atahualpa Severino all seeing action, the Tigres took and then immediately blew a 2-1 lead when Bernie Castro hit a two-run triple in the top of the fifth, followed quickly by Aguilas' first baseman Kevin Barker's RBI single and second baseman Hector Luna's three-run HR that made it 5-2 Aguilas after the home-half of the frame...

• Final Score - Tigres del Licey 2, Aguilas Cibaenas 8. MLB.com Box.

BACKPAGE:

• Rumorville (A Suburb Of NatsTown™): Trading The Untradeable.

BACKPAGE:

• Rumorville (A Suburb Of NatsTown™): Trading The Untradeable.

In MLB.com's Bill Ladson's latest, "Inbox: Riggleman right man for job?", Mr. Ladson talks to several readers with ideas about how the Nationals can improve their middle infield, (Ronnie Belliard? Jamey Carroll?), and then entertains a question from a fan who wants to know if the DC fans should just expect an Ian Desmond/Cristian Guzman middle infield combo this season, with Mr. Ladson responding that he finds it hard to imagine the Nationals going with an Adam Dunn/Cristian Guzman right side of the infield, leading him to believe, in his own words:

"...that the Nationals will try to trade Guzman. It will be hard, because he will make $8 million next year.

As far as Desmond goes, I'm getting mixed signals. I know that Riggleman likes him, but there are other people in the organization who believe he needs more seasoning in the Minor Leagues."

Mr. Ladson quoted Jim Riggleman, in an article entitlted, "Riggleman: Guzman a second baseman" after Riggleman was promoted to full-time skipper, saying that in his opinion and Mr. Ladson's words, "...he wouldn't mind going into the season with Desmond at (short)", though the 24-year-old infielder will have to earn it, and Washington Post writer Thomas Boswell addressed the complaints about Guzman's defensive play and the possibility that someone out there will take an $8 million dollar deal off the Nationals' hands in a chat with readers back on September 24, 2009 entitled, "Ask Boswell: Redskins, Nats, Orioles and More", where Mr. Boswell responded to another Nats fan who brought up Jamey Carroll as an option before suggesting that Guzman's, "...poor on base percentage, marginal range and lack of power," should lead the Nationals to trade the soon-to-be 32-year-old outfielder, "...even if they have to eat half his contract," by stating that:

"Critism of Guzman's fielding is overdone. He has a strong arm, remains agile and WILL be part of the Nats middle infield next year, almost certainly. His $8-million contract makes him semi-untradeable. He's not worth that much. But he is worth having. Almost every SS who has moved to 2nd base has immediately been perceived as a much-improved fielder. Every great defender is put at SS. Those who aren't good enough move to 2nd. So, Guzman's competition is easier. Good Lord, Dan Uggla plays 2nd. Also, almost every play is easier at 2nd. Going left or right (especially left), you can leave your feet and slide to make a stop and still have time to throw out the hitter a high percentage of the time."

Another important consideration Mr. Boswell points out is the fact that Guzman's playing for his next contract this season, which is all the more motivation for Guzman to stay healthy and productive while projecting the image of a team player who's willing to do what's necessary for the good of the ballclub. The year before Guzman signed with Washington, the then-Minnesota Twins' infielder parlayed a .274 AVG, .309 OBP, .384 SLG, 31 doubles, 8 HR's and 46 RBI's into a 4-year deal with Washington worth $16.8 million dollars, (ed. note - "BOWDEN!!"), and after hitting .219 with a .260 OBP in 2005, missing all of 2006, hitting over .300 in 46 games in 2007 and posting a .316 AVG, .345 OBP, .440 SLG, 35 doubles and 55 RBI's in 2008, Guzman inked a two-year extension with the Nationals (in July of '08) for the $8 million he made last year and the $8M he's due in 2010...(ed. note - "BOWDEN!!") Should DC fans expect a lucrative bounce-back campaign from the Guz...?

(ed. note - "Guzman better be solid at second if he stays in DC and switches to the other side of the infield, because Adam Dunn, in the opinion of one Fangraphs.com writer, is the worst defensive player in the Majors. Fangraphs.com writer Matthew Carruth posted an article last Friday entitled, "Highs and Lows of UZR 2007-9: Dunn", in which Mr. Carruth looks, "...at the best and worst defensive performers over the last three seasons combined," and concludes that DC 1st baseman Adam Dunn has cost him team (-108.1) "runs against average" over the last three seasons...granted, most of the Dunn stats examined in this article would have been for him as an OFer, and there's little or no chance he's going back out there any time soon...")

2010 UZR Projections - Updated 11/15/09

Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 18:46:04 -0000

Note: I posted a spreadsheet on 11/14/09 that was not age adjusted. I would prefer for people to used the new age-adjusted spreadsheet. I posted it at 9:30 MST on 11/15/09, but will be leaving the non-age-adjusted one available. Sorry for this inconvenience. --Jeff

I created UZR projections for the 2010 season and the values are available on Google Documents Spreadsheet (original non age adjusted spreadsheet). I got 4 years worth of UZR numbers from Fangraphs. Then I did a 5-4-3-2 yearly weighting regressed to 125 games with a -0.7UZR aging factor (article where the math is explained).

I selected for the worksheet any players that played in at least 63 games at the position over the last 4 years. Some retired players are included, but I don't want to make any judgment on whether they will come back and play. Also, for players who played in less than 63 games, I added their UZR value if it was greater than 1 or less than -1. Sorry for the lack of team-wide charts, but I might add them near the beginning of the season once rosters are more finalized. Please let me know if you have any questions about the data. Here are a couple charts of the projected leaders and laggards at each position (players that played that position in 2009).

Leaders

Position	Name	Projected UZR
1B	Albert Pujols	5.5
2B	Chase Utley	11.0
3B	Evan Longoria	11.0
SS	Adam Everett	8.6
RF	Austin Kearns	8.3
CF	Franklin Gutierrez	14.8
LF	Carl Crawford	9.8

Laggards (glad my Royals keep trading for such great glove men)

Position	Name	Projected UZR
1B	Mike Jacobs	-5.6
2B	Kelly Johnson	-5.2
3B	Ryan Braun	-12.4
SS	Yuniesky Betancourt	-9.7
RF	Brad Hawpe	-19.3
CF	Jacoby Ellsbury	-9.0
LF	Adam Dunn	-13.4

Help with downloading the file after the Jump

A couple of people have asked, so the spreadsheet can be downloaded by going to "File" -> "Download as" and then selecting desired file type.