SB Nation - David Ross

2009 Catcher Defense: Filling in the Holes (yet again)

devil_fingers — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 16:17:43 -0000

More photos » by Duane Burleson - AP

That Minnesota pretty boy might be in the playoffs, but he's go nuthin on One Man, Five Tools.

Even if you aren't a FanGraphs junkie like myself and so many others, if you spend any time there looking at the WAR rankings in order to, say, evaluate who should be the 2009 MVP candidates, you've undoubtedly noticed (due to Joe Mauer's incredible season) that currently, they do not have a system in place to evaluate catcher fielding. Hey, no one's perfect, and knowing Mr. Appleman and his crew, they're probably waiting until they get a system they're happy with before they implement something.

I don't make any great claim to originality here, as you will see if you read on, but for those of you who want a rough idea of how different catchers "measure up" behind the plate for your MVP arguments or to settle the eternal "I wonder just how bad a guy can be at blocking pitches," question, here is a rough attempt to evaluate every catcher's defensive 2009.

Choosing a Methodology (With Qualifications)

Before I go any further, I should make clear that for the purposes of this post that I assume that it is well-established that the differences between catchers with regard to gamecalling (as expressed in, e.g., "catcher's ERA") are negligible, and thus such issues will not be discussed in this post. When I discuss catcher defense, like most others, I will be discussing preventing stolen bases, blocking pitches, etc.

One of the difficulties with evaluating catcher defense with regard to even these issues is that, much more than with other fielding positions, the catcher's performance is dependent on another player -- namely, the pitcher. No matter now strong or weak the catcher's arm is, he can't escape the reality that he depends on the pitcher's skill with regard to holding runners, quickness to the plate, etc. While the catcher's skill with regard to blocking pitches that are off the mark is clearly important, catching Tim Wakefield poses a unique challenge (just ask Josh Bard). And so on.

For these reasons, probably the best way of measuring catcher defense is Tom Tango's WOWY (With or Without You) method of defensive evaluation as detailed the 2008 Hardball Times Annual. You can read about the details in the links provided. Versions of WOWY for catchers have also been done by Brian Cartwright and Dan Turkenkopf. I would do it that way if I could. The main issue is that 1) it's pretty complicated, and beyond my present capabilities, and 2) it requires something like Retrosheet, which isn't available until after the World Series is over, so even if I could do it, I couldn't get the numbers during the season of even now...

In lieu of that, I'm going to be doing something much simpler, which, while not quite as good, is, I think, pretty decent. Just keep in mind the qualifications about not adjusting for particular pitchers made above.

The Method Used Here

For non-WOWY catcher defense, the basic idea is to 1) choose what events you're going to deal with, 2) determine each catchers performance with respect to league average, and 3) decide the run value of each event. Like I said, this post isn't that original: very similar methods are used/suggested by Rally and chuckb. I have most closely modeled my "catcher defense metric" on the method outlined by the Amazing Justin Inaz (now a regular at Beyond the Box Score). His weights for each event seem about right to me, and the general principles are sound. One modification I've made (I'll note the other as I go along) is in the denominator of some stats. when Justin did his version, he was using THT's catcher defense stats, which only recorded catcher innings. Since then, the new Baseball Reference has come out with more detailed individual catcher defense stats, including plate appearances. While the difference isn't huge, I feel that it's more accurate to use plate appearances (batters faced) as the denominator for things like pitch blocking and errors, since while every inning (other than some ninth [or later] innings) has 3 outs, the catcher has to be out there whether there are 3 or 10 batters during those three outs. Otherwise, I'm pretty close to Justin's method, and you can read there for more details.

Stolen Bases/Caught Stealing: First, we figure out the league rate for caught stealing. One cool thing about the new Baseball Reference is that it separates out the catcher caught stealings from the pitcher pickoffs, so we can exclude the pickoffs (not under the catcher's control) from the equation. So we total the CSctch +SB to get total stolen base attempts (SBA) and then to total CSctch/total SBA for the lgCS rate. We use the weight of .63 runs for each caught stealing, which represents the average linear weight of the caught stealing (.44 runs) plus the weight of the stolen base not achieved (.19 runs). The formula for runs above/below average for each catcher is thus (CS - (lgCSrate) * SBA) * 0.63.

Wild pitches/passed balls: The league rate is (WPlg + PBlg)/lgPA. The linear weight for each passed ball/wild pitch is 0.28 runs, which we make negative since the more WP/PBs a catcher has, the worse his defense is. The formula for each player is ((WP + PB) - (lgWPPBrate * PA)) * -0.28.

Errors: Justin accounts for two kinds of errors -- throwing errors and fielding errors. Baseball Reference also includes catching errors (on throws). I've assimilated catching errors to fielding errors. There are separate linear weights for throwing errors (-0.48) and fielding errors (-0.75). The method is the same as above. Get the league rate, then see how far over/under the player is. For throwing errors: (TE - (lgTErate * PA)) * -0.48. Fielding errors: (FE - (lgFErate * PA)) * -0.75.

Then you just add them all up to get the total runs above/below average. It's not perfect, and hopefully, there will be some improved options soon, but the results do seem to reflect reality. I thought about coming up with a "rate" version like UZR/150, but that isn't as simple as prorating for innings caught/PA -- one needs to normalize each sort of event separately, the chart is confusing enough as it is. For now, this is just a value measurement of what each player did this season. But before the big chart, let's take a look at some standout performances. I've rounded to one decimal place to tone down the illusion of great precision.

Standouts and "Standouts"

Caught Stealing: Gerald Laird of the Tigers dominates here at + 11 runs. The next closest player was Johjima at +6.5 runs, then Koyie Hill at +5.4. Now, Laird had a lot more time behind the plate to accomplish that, but one wonders why teams kept trying to run on him. At the bottom of the rankings for CS runs are fan favorite A.J. Pierzynski at -4.5 runs, Yorvit Torrealbea at -5.1 runs, and blowing away the field is defensive legend and Boston Red Sox stalwart Jason Varitek, at -10.7 runs.

Pitch blocking: As for the actual "catching" part of catching, the best in baseball this season was the Phillies' Carlos Ruiz, at +5.6 runs. Jason Varitek gains some of his cred back here at +5.1 runs (I wonder what it would be if he had to catch Wakefield). The Man, the Myth, the Legend, Matt Wieters may not have quite cemented his Hall of Fame credentials, but he can block a pitch decently at +3.9 runs. The players are grouped by their performance for separate teams, so I just noticed that one of my favorites, Gregg Zaun, was +2.9 for the Orioles, and +1.4 for the Rays, which puts him at +4.3, or the real number 3. Maybe Baltimore let him go to soon -- he definite brings his Z-Game when he's blocking pitches. At the bottom of the rankings, Jorge Posada, Josh Bard, and and Rob Johnson (why did he get so much playing time?) are all tied at -3.8, Russell Martin (?!) is at -5.1 (although he saw more PA than just about any other catcher on the list). And bringing up the rear... this is going to be a shock, prepare yourself... Miguel Olivo, at -7.8. Think about that -- it's only -0.28 runs per WP/PB. Sure, he's "only" -2.7 runs worse thatn Martin, but Martin saw almost 1400 more PA than Olivo this season. This shows we're on the right track, as Brian Cartwright's WOWY study done previous to this season showed Olivo to be historically terrible at blocking the plate. Another great job of scouting by Dayton Moore and the Process Servers.

Throwing errors: Given that there's so little variance with this stat, there's probably less of a repeatable "skill" when it comes to this stuff. In other words, if we were doing a projection, there would be much more regression for TE and FE runs than others. Still, we're measuring value here, so it goes on the record. Gerald Laird leads the pack again at +1.5 runs, followed closely by Yorvit Torrealbea at +1.3 the Kurt Suzuki and Henry Blanco at +1.2 each. At the bottom, we have Rod Barajas (otherwise a good defensive catcher) at -1.6, Miguel Montero at -1.7, and sadly, my boy John Buck at -3.0. He had some really, really horrible games at the beginning of the season. At least he can move two inches to his right or left.

Fielding errors: Jason Kendall justifies his major league status with a +1.0 here, as does Russell Martin. Rod Barajas shows he's Joe Mauer's equal, as they both have +0.8. Mike Napoli is -1.6, the traitorous Paul Bako is at -2.0, and Brian McCann, who's decent at everything else, has an anomalous -3.6.

The Best and The Worst, and Others of Note: One Man, Five Tools, Indeed: Gerald Laird blows away the field at +13.3 runs. The Tigers made a conscious effort to improve their defense in the offseason, and whatever else happened, with Laird they certainly succeeded. At 0.9 WAR player without defense, with it he's about 2.2. Kenji Johjima might be overpaid, but at +8.8 runs defensively, he seems a bit less ridiculous. Dave Ross and Ryan Hanigan come in at +7.0 runs. Yadier Molina was very good, if not quite as godlike as some would think, but +6.6 runs is nothing to sneeze at, and makes him about a 4 WAR player this season. Joe Mauer's +4.3 is good, but he's not the best in baseball or the league, and that certainly doesn't make him a better MVP candidate than Zack Greinke. Matt Wieters is +2.5, so he'll probably stick at catcher, at least for a while.

Victor Martinez isn't as bad as some would say, being only -2.2 betweeen Boston and Cleveland. Jeff Mathis is a "great" defensive backup at -2.0. Or how about Jose Molina at -1.1 backing up Jorge Posada at -5.9? Giants cleanup hitter Bengie Molina is at -3.4

As for the bottom ranks... Josh Bard is at -7.3, the human swing machine, Miguel Olivo, is at -8.8, and the Living Stereotype, Mike Napoli, is at -9.7. No wonder the Angels think Mathis is a good defender.

The Big Chart

That's it. Keep in mind (along with the limitations mentioned above) that current season performance is not the same thing as true talent. I hope you will find this handy when trying to get various catchers' "real" WAR, and let others know about it. Let the arguments begin!

Rank	Player	Tm	PA	CSRuns	WP/PBRns	TERns	FERns	TotalRuns
1	Gerald Laird	DET	4842	11.0	0.6	1.5	0.2	13.3
2	Kenji Johjima	SEA	2597	6.5	0.9	0.9	0.5	8.8
3	Dave Ross	ATL	1517	4.8	1.6	0.3	0.3	7.0
4	Ryan Hanigan	CIN	2913	4.7	0.7	1.0	0.5	7.0
5	Yadier Molina	STL	5045	3.2	2.6	0.7	0.2	6.6
6	Koyie Hill	CHC	2755	5.4	0.2	0.0	0.5	6.1
7	Henry Blanco	SDP	2278	2.9	1.2	1.2	0.4	5.7
8	Carlos Ruiz	PHI	3887	-1.5	5.6	0.6	0.7	5.4
9	Raul Chavez	TOR	1818	3.6	0.5	0.0	0.3	4.4
10	Joe Mauer	MIN	4153	0.5	2.4	0.7	0.8	4.3
11	Rod Barajas	TOR	4298	2.6	2.5	-1.6	0.8	4.2
12	Brian Schneider	NYM	1976	1.6	1.2	1.0	-0.4	3.5
13	Ramon Hernandez	CIN	2069	0.6	1.7	0.6	0.4	3.3
14	Francisco Cervelli	NYY	1024	2.0	0.8	0.0	0.2	3.1
15	Lou Marson	CLE	572	1.6	1.0	-0.2	0.1	2.5
16	Eliezer Alfonzo	SDP	1128	2.2	0.3	0.6	-0.5	2.5
17	Matt Wieters	BAL	3384	-1.1	3.9	-0.2	-0.1	2.5
18	Ronny Paulino	FLA	2609	2.1	-0.4	0.4	0.5	2.5
19	Landon Powell	OAK	1205	2.8	0.5	-0.3	-0.5	2.4
20	Taylor Teagarden	TEX	2180	3.1	0.9	-1.3	-0.3	2.4
21	Omir Santos	NYM	3092	-0.7	2.8	1.1	-0.9	2.4
22	Ivan Rodriguez	HOU	3327	1.4	0.4	-0.2	0.6	2.2
23	Chris Iannetta	COL	3362	0.1	1.9	-0.7	0.6	2.0
24	Gregg Zaun	BAL	1974	0.2	2.9	-0.9	-0.4	1.8
25	Humberto Quintero	HOU	1893	2.4	0.4	-1.4	0.4	1.7
26	Corky Miller	CIN	702	0.4	0.8	0.4	0.1	1.7
27	Ramon Castro	NYM	822	1.8	0.6	0.4	-1.3	1.4
28	Mike Rivera	MIL	1227	-0.2	0.5	0.6	0.2	1.3
29	Lou Marson	PHI	245	0.7	0.4	0.1	0.0	1.2
30	Jason LaRue	STL	1139	0.0	0.9	0.1	0.2	1.2
31	Craig Tatum	CIN	749	0.5	0.6	-0.1	0.1	1.1
32	Chris Coste	PHI	925	-1.0	1.4	0.5	0.2	1.0
33	Dusty Ryan	DET	337	0.4	0.4	0.2	0.1	1.0
34	Kurt Suzuki	OAK	5222	-3.4	3.6	1.2	-0.5	0.9
35	Michel Hernandez	TBR	1140	0.1	1.1	0.1	-0.5	0.8
36	Geovany Soto	CHC	3607	2.2	-1.1	0.4	-0.8	0.7
37	Clint Sammons	ATL	135	1.0	-0.5	0.1	0.0	0.6
38	Jamie Burke	WSN	155	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.6
39	Brad Ausmus	LAD	1086	-0.1	-0.1	0.6	0.2	0.6
40	Ivan Rodriguez	TEX	961	1.4	0.1	-0.5	-0.6	0.5
41	Matt Pagnozzi	STL	40	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.5
42	Chris Gimenez	CLE	245	-0.1	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.5
43	Pablo Sandoval	SFG	113	0.3	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.4
44	Buster Posey	SFG	179	0.3	-0.1	0.1	0.0	0.4
45	Dioner Navarro	TBR	4097	0.5	-0.3	0.2	0.0	0.4
46	J.R. Towles	HOU	538	-1.0	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.3
47	Wyatt Toregas	CLE	710	-0.5	0.3	0.4	0.1	0.3
48	Alex Avila	DET	709	0.4	-0.6	0.4	0.1	0.3
49	Steve Holm	SFG	101	0.5	-0.3	0.1	0.0	0.3
50	Edwin Bellorin	COL	69	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.2
51	Dusty Brown	BOS	49	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.2
52	Jose Lobaton	SDP	205	0.2	0.3	-0.4	0.0	0.1
53	Jason Jaramillo	PIT	2347	0.2	0.2	-0.7	0.4	0.1
54	Jake Fox	CHC	30	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.1
55	Carlos Corporan	MIL	6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
56	Ryan Budde	LAA	38	-0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
57	A.J. Ellis	LAD	119	-0.1	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
58	Guillermo Rodriguez	BAL	72	0.0	-0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
59	Bobby Wilson	LAA	98	-0.1	0.0	0.1	0.0	-0.1
60	David Freese	STL	10	-0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.1
61	Kevin Cash	NYY	297	-0.3	0.0	0.2	0.1	-0.1
62	Chris Coste	HOU	628	-1.2	0.6	0.3	0.1	-0.2
63	Adam Moore	SEA	241	-0.1	-0.2	0.1	0.0	-0.2
64	Corky Miller	CHW	383	-0.7	0.2	0.2	0.1	-0.2
65	Gregg Zaun	TBR	928	-1.5	1.4	0.5	-0.6	-0.2
66	Jarrod Saltalamacchia	TEX	3169	-0.5	1.6	-1.3	-0.2	-0.3
67	Wil Nieves	WSN	2538	1.4	-0.4	-1.1	-0.3	-0.3
68	John Hester	ARI	255	-0.4	-0.1	0.1	0.0	-0.3
69	Paul Hoover	PHI	55	-0.3	-0.1	0.0	0.0	-0.4
70	Guillermo Quiroz	SEA	161	-0.1	-0.4	0.1	0.0	-0.4
71	Dane Sardinha	DET	404	-0.5	-0.3	0.2	0.1	-0.5
72	Shawn Riggans	TBR	156	-0.3	0.1	-0.4	0.0	-0.5
73	Matt Treanor	DET	157	-0.6	-0.1	0.1	0.0	-0.6
74	Kevin Richardson	TEX	70	-0.3	-0.4	0.0	0.0	-0.6
75	Victor Martinez	CLE	1991	-2.7	0.7	1.0	0.4	-0.6
76	Josh Thole	NYM	551	-0.1	-0.5	-0.2	0.1	-0.6
77	Tyler Flowers	CHW	123	-0.3	-0.5	0.1	0.0	-0.7
78	Michael Barrett	TOR	174	-0.3	-0.6	0.1	0.0	-0.8
79	Luke Carlin	ARI	176	-0.9	-0.1	0.1	0.0	-0.8
80	Kyle Phillips	TOR	186	-0.2	-0.3	-0.4	0.0	-0.9
81	Jesus Flores	WSN	980	0.4	-1.2	0.5	-0.6	-0.9
82	Jose Molina	NYY	1533	-0.9	-0.9	0.3	0.3	-1.1
83	Jamie Burke	SEA	424	0.7	-0.8	0.2	-1.4	-1.3
84	Kelly Shoppach	CLE	3042	-0.7	-0.9	-0.4	0.6	-1.5
85	Victor Martinez	BOS	1173	-1.5	1.0	-1.3	0.2	-1.6
86	Ramon Castro	CHW	975	-1.8	1.0	-0.9	0.2	-1.6
87	Rob Johnson	SEA	2927	2.4	-3.8	0.5	-1.0	-1.8
88	Ryan Doumit	PIT	2754	-1.0	0.5	-0.5	-1.0	-2.0
89	Chad Moeller	BAL	1116	-3.1	0.2	0.6	0.2	-2.1
90	Jeff Mathis	LAA	2902	0.8	-1.0	-0.9	-1.0	-2.1
91	Paul Phillips	COL	502	-1.8	-0.3	-0.2	0.1	-2.3
92	Mike Redmond	MIN	1513	-4.1	0.5	0.8	0.3	-2.5
93	Robinzon Diaz	PIT	1268	-1.0	-1.6	-0.3	0.2	-2.6
94	Yorvit Torrealba	COL	2438	-5.1	0.5	1.3	0.5	-2.9
95	Brayan Pena	KCR	1012	-0.5	-3.1	0.5	0.2	-2.9
96	Brian McCann	ATL	4763	-0.7	1.8	-0.4	-3.6	-3.0
97	Chris Snyder	ARI	1962	-1.3	-3.0	1.0	0.4	-3.0
98	Eli Whiteside	SFG	1348	1.0	-2.2	-0.7	-1.2	-3.2
99	John Baker	FLA	3919	-2.6	-0.5	-0.9	0.7	-3.2
100	Paul Bako	PHI	1328	-0.7	-0.3	-0.3	-2.0	-3.3
101	Russell Martin	LAD	5205	1.5	-5.1	-0.7	1.0	-3.3
102	Bengie Molina	SFG	4582	-1.0	-2.6	0.9	-0.6	-3.4
103	Jason Varitek	BOS	4133	-10.7	5.1	0.7	0.8	-4.1
104	George Kottaras	BOS	1166	-1.8	-3.0	0.1	0.2	-4.4
105	Jason Kendall	MIL	5296	-2.9	-1.5	-1.1	1.0	-4.5
106	John Buck	KCR	1693	-2.0	-0.1	-3.0	0.3	-4.8
107	A.J. Pierzynski	CHW	4927	-4.5	-0.8	1.1	-0.6	-4.8
108	Jose Morales	MIN	812	-2.1	-1.7	-0.1	-1.3	-5.2
109	Jorge Posada	NYY	3653	-0.8	-3.8	-0.5	-0.8	-5.9
110	Miguel Montero	ARI	4094	-1.4	-3.4	-1.7	0.0	-6.5
111	Nick Hundley	SDP	2877	-3.7	-2.0	-0.9	-0.2	-6.8
112	Josh Bard	WSN	2902	-2.8	-3.8	-0.4	-0.2	-7.3
113	Miguel Olivo	KCR	3821	0.7	-7.8	-0.9	-0.8	-8.8
114	Mike Napoli	LAA	3468	-4.3	-3.1	-0.6	-1.6	-9.7

Talking Chop Round Table: Braves Catchers

gondeee — Sat, 10 Oct 2009 00:25:06 -0000

As part of season reviews for major league players and top prospect ranking for minor league players, we here at Talking Chop thought it would be a fun idea to get all of our bloggers together with the help of Google Docs and debate the various aspects of each position in the Braves organization.

The participants are, yours truly (gondeee, indicated by MG), yondaime4 (indicated by MF), royhobbs (indicated by DH), and cbwilk (indicated by CBW).

I thought we'd have a few quick questions with some short responses, but apparently I underestimated the verbosity of my fellow bloggers, and this thing turned into an opus. But while it is quite long, it is an interesting discussion about the Braves catching situation in both the majors and the minors. If you have anything to add please feel free to post a comment... but please, keep it short.

MG: My assertion is that Brian McCann is the team's MVP, is there any doubt about that?
CBW: Not to me. You made a great point in your writeup that guys like LaRoche, Prado, and Diaz just didn't have enough at bats to really qualify, though I do think LaRoche, even in half a year should get some consideration. I still can't understand the logic of him batting 7th every game. It's been remarked that the face of the team has transfered from Chipper to Mac, and I think after this year that's pretty obvious. He led the team in most of the important categories and really is the backbone. It's nice too that he's a lot like Chipper in his leadership style; he lets his play speak for him.
MF: Yeah I can't make an argument for anyone else. Not a solid one anyways. McCann led all qualified NL catchers in OPS (and that wasn't close) and was behind only Mauer in the MLB (not counting V-Mart who played about half his games at 1B). The only thing that detracts for me is his second half slide which I think can be attributed to Chipper not being as big a threat in front of him and not getting the pitches to hit. For me it really comes down to is Chipper as the first half MVP, Laroche as the 2nd half guy and then McCann for the long haul.
DH: As much as I love Brian McCann, he is certainly high up on the list, but I don't think I can really say he's the team's MVP. A particular trend I've visually observed the last few years, and that's towards the end of the years, he begins to fade. Whether it is fatigue caused by how much he plays or just his physical stamina overall, the amount of times he simply begins to get under baseballs and pop up and out seems much higher in Septembers and Octobers than it does in earlier months in a season. The only statistic that can support this claim is that his overall OPS seems to drop somewhat throughout all Septembers of his career (still a respectable .805). McCann is certainly the future of the franchise, and is no doubt an outstanding player and citizen, but his penchant for fading down the stretch is a bit of a concern for me. However, all this being said, I can still confidently claim that he's still the most talented catcher in the National League.

And it continues after the jump...

CBW: I've been of the opinion for a while that he's the best catcher in baseball. He's obviously got the National League wrapped up, Geovanny Soto came back to earth (who didn't see that coming?), Yadier Molina is an outstanding defensive catcher but that's about it, and Russell Martin fell off the edge of the earth, but I'm not so sure he isn't better than Mauer. Obviously Mauer's 2009 was insane, but if you look at last year, McCann had him beat all over. Looking at their careers, per 162 games Mauer averages a .327 avg, .891 OPS, with 17 HR and 92 RBI, compared to McCann averaging .293, .852 OPS, with 24 HR and 103 RBI. Since 2005 the AL's OPS averages about .013 points higher than the NL, so Mauer's .039 point career lead over McCann is still very impressive, but a little less so. Another thing to keep in mind with Mauer is the DH. Over his career, he's played about half a season's worth of games as a DH, compiling a .331 avg and .887 OPS in those games. A fifth of his plate appearances this season came as a DH. I don't think there's any way to quantify it, but there's no question that gives Mauer an advantage that McCann just doesn't have.
DH: "J" Russell Martin. Totally makes sense. I love McCann to death, and I'll argue tooth and nail that he's the best in the National League, but I have to give the nod to Mauer as the best in the Majors. He has plenty of advantages that work in his favor, mostly from playing in the AL, and unless he one day migrates over into the NL, we'll never have a true comparison. Due to the capability for him to DH every now and then, it saves some wear on his body while keeping his bat in the lineup, and also keeps his AB total from dipping below batting title qualifications, which is pretty much what kept McCann from getting his own in 2006. Whether or not this reprieve from catching duties saves that much toll, Mauer also has not demonstrated the aforementioned September slow down that McCann seems to suffer each year. McCann certainly has a fine swing, but there's a reason why some teams are beginning to employ the shift on him; he's beginning to peg himself as somewhat of a pull-hitter. Mauer is definitely better at utilizing the entire feels, and is indicative by the fact that he has more hits to the left side of the field than he does pulling the ball throughout his entire career. As I said, I don't mean to knock McCann by any stretch of the imagination, but I don't think it's necessarily fair to bring Mauer down because of the luxury of the silly rules of the league he plays in; I think he'd probably be just as successful if he were a National League catcher.
MF: I'll just throw my two cents worth in here. I was using my favorite tool on ESPN to check the statistical validity of these arguments: the three year splits. Right now their three years are only from 2006-2008 but that actually works well for this. Coming in the 2009 season McCann had a three year OPS of .873 and Mauer was at .874. Obviously it doesn't get much closer than that. What is interesting is how differently they were getting there. Mauer had the high AVG and lots of walks whereas Brian was doing it with twice as many homers and 30 more doubles in that span. In the past would I have argued hard that McCann was the best catcher in baseball and that Mauer (despite the batting titles) was still living off of his prospect status. This season is what sets this all off though as Mauer finally closed the gap on power (and then some, in less than a full season). And what eventually tips the scales further is that Mauer is probably a better defender. I think right now in their primes Mauer is the guy you have to take but when their careers are settled I wouldn't be surprised to see a narrower gap than most people thought existed.
CBW: I like that take on things. My only further argument would be that Mauer is a year older than McCann, so if this year is what's setting him apart, it'd be nice to see if McCann can close that gap next season.

MG: Is David Ross the best backup catcher the Braves have ever had, when one considers hitting, fielding, and throwing out baserunners?
CBW: I think it's easy to believe that after how bad it's been the last few years, but the Braves have actually had some outstanding backups in their recent history. You look at Charlie O'Brien in 94 and 95 and he was a great at Maddux's personal catcher, combining for a .766 OPS in those two years. His average was low, but he had a ton of pop and was one of the better defensive catchers around. With Maddux on the mound nearly every time out, it's going to be hard to throw somebody out, so it's not really fair to compare Ross to guys who mostly had this issue. For me, the best backup catcher in Braves history is going to be Eddie Perez. His 9 years in Atlanta weren't spectacular, he hit .251 with a .691 OPS, but he was, like O'Brien, a very good defensive catcher and he added a lot of intangibles to the team. As far as a comparison to Ross, well, Ross has only had one season. Take a look at Perez's 1998: 61 G, 149 AB, .336 AVG, .941 OPS. That's way better than what Ross put up this year.
MF: Ross certainly had the best season ever by a Braves backup catcher. At least in recent memory. When you think about it he and McCann combined for 44 2B, 28 HR and 114 RBI. Without running the numbers I am sure the only team whose catchers combined for anywhere close to that was Minnesota. Yeah Ross had a really good year. Its not like he came into this year and just exploded either, the guy posted a .932 OPS in 2006 on top of 21 HRs. I am ecstatic that we have him for one more season.
CBW: Ross certainly had an outstanding 2009, but come on, it wasn't better than Perez's 1998.
MF: The raw offensive statistics were better sure, but I would say Ross's season was more valuable considering the offensive context (the Braves hit 215 HRs that season). So I guess depending on what we are saying as the "Best" you could take either one. I think I'll take Ross's. Just barely.
CBW: Fair enough. I'm still with Perez, but I like your reasoning. So, as far as gondeee's question, would you take Perez as the best Braves' backup catcher all time?
MF: Yeah I'll take Perez. He was great in the clubhouse and he was solid offensively and great defensively for a long time. You can't ask for much more than that out of a backup catcher.
DH: Late to the party, but I cannot argue the rationale behind Perez being the best backup catcher. I think a good amount of people would be willing to christen Ross as the best backup ever, but consider the short term memory of people remembering Brayan Pena and Corky Miller, and they're going to think Ross is Jorge Posada with the stick.
CBW: I still think getting rid of Brayan Pena was a mistake. Sure, he was replaced by Norton, who was fantastic last year, but he had all the potential to be a solid extra bat off the bench. He was working on playing first base and third base, so he could have added some versatility. The guy's attitude and hustle are just things you can't have enough of.
DH: I don't know why Miller was given the nod over Pena as the backup, especially after the "heart-warming" story that SI did about Escobar and Pena growing up wishing to be Braves, but as ludicrous as it sounds, it almost felt like Pena was the odd man out for being better than Corky. Like a backup catcher has to be only so good enough to warrant a backup status.
MG: I'd like to see the Braves carry three catchers next year, with Clint Sammons, and use Ross more as a pinch hitter and a power bat off the bench -- he might be better than much of what we got off the bench this year.
CBW: I like that idea and you'd have to think it could only help Ross for the days he does play by getting more regular at bats. When you have a guy that good, finding ways to get him in the lineup can only lead to good stuff. He had a terrible year and should be a candidate in any way, but a guy like Robby Hammock, who could also be used at 1B, 3B, and LF if necessary, but is also a great catcher, would be, to me anyway, a little more desireable for something like this someone like Sammons, who can only catch.
MF: You have to think giving ABs to Ross instead of some of the guys we were running out there the first half of the season would have been a much better use of our resources.
DH: Just remembered another name - Todd Pratt. David Ross was way better than him, too. At this point, there's such a long list of names that were more deserving of ABs than Greg Norton, that it's almost a moot point given that hind-sight's a harsh mistress.
CBW: He was also much, much better than Henry Blanco and Paul Bako. I think we've covered all the backups for the last 15 years now, and with the exception of that one season by Perez, Ross is hands down better.

MG: Coming into the season I thought the Braves had some good, although low level, minor league catching depth, but I think this year proved it's not quite as good as many had thought. Guys like Schlehuber and Elorriaga-Matra, who I had high hopes for, took a real step backwards.
CBW: There really isn't anything at the upper levels to be excited about. Jose Camarena is a fine AA player, as a backup, but that's about it. And guys like Alvin Colina and JC Boscan are necessary, but they're not prospects. I'm still fairly excited about our lower level catching, because I have a ton of faith in Bethancourt and Kennelly, but yes, Schlehuber and Elorriaga-Matra kind of knocked themselves off the prospect radar. Elorriaga-Matra is an outstanding defensive catcher, but his OPS, in a starting role, was .394. That's not going to get you anywhere. He'll be 21 next year, so he'll already be a bit old for Rome, if he can even make their roster. Schlehuber was 21 this year at Rome, so he was a bit old, and he didn't fare much better, rocking a sturdy .596 OPS. He's also a good defensive catcher, but he's going to have to repeat the level, and even if he fares well, he'll be way too old for the league.
MF: I am still not giving up on Schlehuber. I can't really say why, but I just think he is going to rebound next season. I still think he might be the most physically gifted catcher we have in the minors right now and he would put those gifts on show about once a month and then they would disappear. I would also point out that he did have a better ISOP than Kennelly had at either MB or Rome (BS: .109 vs MK: .063) and he had a fairly normal LD% at 13% to go along with a crazy low BABIP of .227. That's not to say he is going to be great, but there are some good indicators there and a lot of times your first full season can be a throw away. Maybe he should have started in Danville? I don't know, but I do know if he had gotten 500 ABs he would have had 35 ish doubles and nearly double digit homers. What has happened to Daniel Matra? (Yeah I'm not spelling that) This guy was primed to have a bust out year after seeing his draft stock drop hard after his JR season of high school. But he is still only 20 years old (not 21 till the end of December) and has time to grow and learn. And lets not forget that Kennelly has yet to really blow anyone's socks off offensively at any level.
CBW: You point about Kennelly here is dead on, but I think taking into account the severe difference between the levels of amateur play in Australia and the US is important. Kennelly wasn't really playing anyone, while Elorriaga-Matra was good enough to make the 18 and under USA team. DEM is getting a little old and really hasn't shown any level of success. It's a shame, he's a likeable guy and I was amazed with his defensive ability. Maybe he'll be able to hit enough to stick around for a while and maybe eek out a backup job in the Majors in his late 20s. I'm kind of curious why you feel Schlehuber is so physically gifted. I didn't see much that made me think he was any more of an impressive athlete than Bethancourt or Kennelly or even DEM or Benji Johnson.
MF: I was going more off the fact that he was able to steal a few bases in college and even some in the pros and that he has flashed a bit of a power stroke. Maybe I was stretching a bit on the most physically gifted but I still think he has good tools. Obviously you have seen these guys and may have caught something that I can't being stuck in the mountains of WV, but I just think there is a kernel of talent buried deep, deep in his numbers. And you are right about Kennelly having only played in Aussie leagues, but I don't think Kennelly is that old. Still just 20 and he will be in his 21 season next year. Catchers don't have a normal growth curve because a lot of times one skill has to catch up with the other. I'm not going to put money on either Schlehuber or DEM, but I'm not quite sold out on them yet.
CBW: Did I say Kennelly was old at one point? If I did I didn't mean to; to me he's right on track. I've definitely got more hope for Schlehuber than DEM. Schlehuber is still going to be old for his league, and he just seems like he profiles as more of a backup to me, but you're right, there's something there to be hopeful about.
MF: No I don't think you did, I just got crossed up with the text in there.

MG: It seems like our non-drafted minor league catchers are really the best of the bunch, Bethancourt and Kennelly.
CBW: Just looking at the other lists, it's pretty rare that we're going to be uniamous on many selections, but we all had Bethancourt 1 and Kennelly 2. After finally getting to see Bethancourt this year in Spring Training, I became a believer and a huge fan. He's a big, solid kid, but isn't bulky like a guy like Tyler Flowers, so you can see him staying behind the plate. His defense is good and had a surprising season for a 17 year old. You have to believe if he has a good ST this year, he's in line to go to Rome as an 18 year old, and if he can put up another fine season, that's really going to be saying something. Kennelly's season was a little unfair, in that he played so well in ST that they decided to clear the logjam at Rome by rushing him up to Myrtle Beach. He wasn't ready for it and it showed. He rebounded a little after moving back to Rome, but at that point there are a lot of mental factors, a half season of failure, a demotion, that lead to a severe knock in confidence. But, I have a lot of faith in the kid, he's a great defensive catcher and his mental approach to the game is fantastic. Pitchers love working with him because he's so supportive and talkative. He'll be 21 in a return to Myrtle Beach, so that's about the right age and most Australians develop slowly anyway. Another undrafted guy, Jesus Sucre comes in at number 3 for us, and he's a guy worth keeping an eye on. He's also an outstanding defender and he's got a thick, wide body that makes for the kind of target pitchers love to throw to. He hit for a little power with Myrtle Beach, but I doubt he's ever going to really be much of a power threat. He'll be 22 early in next season, and he played well enought that it seems like he might start the year at Mississippi, though that might be a little more than he's ready to handle as a hitter. I'd say prospect-wise he's a good distance after Bethancourt and Kennelly, but he's also much closer to being a finished product, since he really projects as a backup catcher all the way.
MF: I really liked Kennelly a lot coming into this season and I think he will get looked over by many folks because of his performance at Myrtle Beach when he shouldn't have been there. In a perfect world Kennelly starts at Rome and Schlehuber at Myrtle Beach, but obviously that wasn't going to happen. Scouts praise his leadership skills and how quickly he can make adjustments and improve himself. He has a solid body and is expected to develop some power as he makes more adjustments. Remember, we signed this kid out of Australia at 16 years old and he is just now 20. Bethancourt has the potential to be a stud in a couple years, if he isn't already one. For a guy so young he already is showing an advanced feel at the plate and behind it. The problem with having both of these guys is we have the second best catcher in baseball blocking them both. Both guys are going to need at least 2 more, if not 3, years in the minors to really get developed, and while McCann's contract will be up its hard to imagine the Braves not doing everything they can to resign him. And then we are back where we were with Flowers and Salty.
CBW: Great points about Kennelly's leadership and ability to make adjustments. Those are definitely things you keep hearing about the guy. I don't know if I'm entirely worried about some kind of future logjam, if only because that's something I rarely worry about. Frankly, very few prospects actually pan out, so if it comes to a point where you've got both Bethancourt and Kennelly ready to go, and McCann still dominating in the Majors, that's a fantastic problem to have, especially since quality catching is so incredibly rare. Hey, we turned Salty into a great season's worth of Mark Teixera and Flowers into at least a great season's worth of Javy Vazquez, so depth is nothing to sneeze at. Anyway, I think it's still at least three and a half to four years before these guys are really ready to be Major Leaguers, assuming they develop well. By then, you're talking about McCann being a 30, 31 year old catcher. I've always seen him as a guy who might end up having to shift to first base, so who knows, by then, if say Bethancourt, who'll only be 22, is a stud prospect ready for a spot, it might be time to make that switch.

CBW: Since, he's the only guy on the list we haven't talked about, how do you guys feel about Benji Johnson? For me, he just sneaks onto the end of the list because I have more faith in his future than Elorriaga-Matra's. He's always been a little old for his league, but he's never really played all that well. One thing you can see is that he's always been a backup, so it's hard to even compare him to Clint Sammons, a guy who was always a little old, but was definitely being groomed as a backup.
MF: Hah, I was amazed it took us this long to bring up Johnson. I don't really know much about Johnson honestly, but out of the guys we have talked about not named Clint Sammons, I think Johnson's total package is the most advanced, but I think long term and short term there just isn't any room for him. It looks like he has a little pop in his bat, but he really just doesn't have anything going for him other than that, and even that isn't a +tool. I know we are talking backups here, but unless his defense is better than Clint Sammons (which is going to be difficult) I can't really justify ever using an MLB roster spot for anything other than emergency purposes.
CBW: Good call. I dont' think his defense is really close to Sammy's. Clint is one of the best defensive catchers I've ever seen in the minor leagues.

CBW: Speaking of Sammons, he probably could still qualify for a prospect list, since he doesn't even have 70 at bats in the bigs (I was shocked he only got in 6 games this season), but none of us thought of him. Martin suggests keeping him as an extreme backup in 2010, so, to that point, do we all kind of feel like that's about his ceiling, a mitt with legs?
MG: I always thought he had a decent bat, but it seems to have eroded as he's moved up the ladder. I was lobbying for him over Corky last year since with Clint at least we get the hope that the offense will improve, being that he is young and can still be molded, and the glove would not have suffered at all. It's hard to say why one becomes a cheerleader for certain players, but I think way more of Sammons than I probably should, and I'm not ashamed of that.
CBW: I don't think there's anything wrong with that. Personally, he's one of my favorite guys in the organization. I've seen him play at every level and he's one of the nicest, most down to earth guys you'd ever want to meet. And, it doesn't hurt that his defense is just spectacular. If nothing else, Sammons is a good example of how good catchers, despite their hitting ability, can stick around.

Braves 2009 Season in Review: David Ross

gondeee — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 13:18:16 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

Atlanta Braves' David Ross was the best backup catcher in the NL this season.

Browse more photos »

Guess who led the 2009 Atlanta Braves in OPS. Did you guess Brian McCann? How about Chipper Jones? Martin Prado? What about Adam LaRoche? Okay, it was actually LaRoche, but the guy who ranked second was David Ross with an .888 OPS. For all of our decent or good offensive players, David Ross was the second best hitter on the team.

Ross' good patience at the plate was complimented by his excellent power. His 7 homeruns rank second in the majors for any player with 160 or fewer at-bats. Add to that his 48% caught stealing rate (19 CS in 40 ATT) and he was truly the best backup catcher in baseball. And he may be the best backup catcher the Braves have ever had. Eddie Perez might have had a better offensive year in 1998 (.941 OPS), but Eddie wasn't as good at throwing out runners as Ross was. Eddie had a 29% CS% that year, which is far below that of Ross this year. So when we combine offense and defense, I think we can say that Ross' year was the best for any Atlanta backup backstop.

That 48% caught stealing percentage was the best in the National League for any catcher with more than three attempts against him. That's an impressive weapon to put into the lineup when your starting catcher is not available, and this is even more ammunition for the Braves to give Brian McCann more regular rest next season. This is also ammunition for the Braves to use David Ross as a pinch hitter more often.

Ross did not have a pinch hit in 2009, but he only got to the plate in that situation three times, walking once and making two outs. For his career, Ross has a .905 OPS when pinch hitting, showing off his plus power in the process with 3 pinch hit homeruns in 40 at-bats. We need to make him one of our featured pinch hitters next year. If the team is worried about not having a catcher late in the game in case of injury, then they can rely on an emergency catcher like Matt Diaz (who came up as a catcher), or the Braves can carry three catchers, keeping Clint Sammons on the bench. Sammons by the way, threw out all three of the baserunners who tried to steal against him this year.

Certainly a guy who hits as well as Ross did should be featured in the offense more. And his season was not a fluke. He's put up an OPS+ of 130 (like he did this year) or better in four of his eight big league seasons. I'd like to see the Braves carry three catchers next year and use Ross or Sammons every fifth day giving McCann regular rest, and use Ross as a pinch hitter three or four times a week.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - David Ross	54	128	18	35	9	0	7	20	21	39	0	0	.273	.380	.508

Coming up tomorrow, the top-5 minor league catchers in the Braves system, and a catcher's roundtable between the bloggers here at Talking Chop.

Braves 2009 Season in Review: Brian McCann

gondeee — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 22:27:11 -0000

More photos » by Gregory Smith - AP

Atlanta Braves catcher Brian McCann... a slugger?

Browse more photos »

They say that every player is affected to some degree by where he bats in the lineup, and it seems that the slugger's mentality of the cleanup spot began to sink into Brian McCann as the season went along. The common generalization about McCann is that he began to wear down in the second half, but his numbers don't completely bear that out. He didn't wear down, he became more of a homerun hitter and a run producer and all of the strikeouts and ills that go with it.

The numbers are very slight, and maybe it's just the extra luck of another homerun or two a month, but before the All-Star break McCann was hitting 2 or 3 homers a month, and after the break he was hitting 4 or 5 a month. The RBIs also followed, with no month over 15 before the break, and every month after the break over 20 RBIs per month.

The result was that in the same number of games played (69), McCann had 20 more RBIs in the second half of the year. This, of course, could also be a result of the people on base ahead of him, as Prado and McLouth did a better job than Yunel and Johnson of getting on in front of the middle of the order.

While he added more homerun power, his overall power declined throughout the year after peaking in July. Actually, July has been his best month year after year. Each of the last three years his best month has been the same month as the All-Star break. While he has participated in the All-Star game perhaps there's something about having a few days off that helps him over the long haul. Perhaps he's inspired by being around all of the other star players. Perhaps he just likes the July heat a lot. The takeaway from this could be the first point, that he does better when given multiple days of rest.

With as good of a backup catcher as we now have in David Ross, there is no reason for McCann not to have a day off every week. Consider July after the All-Star break, McCann had one game out of the next 15 that he didn't start. Yes, he did well in those game, and it was probably hard to take him out of the lineup, but after getting a day off he went 3-for-his-next-24. Long stretches of play were consistently followed by slumps. After playing 7 games in a row at the end of August, McCann goes 3-for-his-next-29.

The odd thing about all of these points is that they seem to contradict one another. On one hand his slugging percentage was higher in the first three months, but he hit more homeruns and drove in more RBIs with a lower slugging percentage in the second half. Did he wear down or just change his approach. I say again, did his spot in the lineup affect his decisions at the plate?

McCann also seems to have a really great year and then a good year. 2006 and 2008 were really great years, 2007 and 2009 were good years. If you follow that logic, McCann should be unleashed next season. Even with the slight decline in odd numbered years those good years are getting better, so the overall arc of his improvement is still trending upwards. The best catcher in the National League and he's getting better... fantastic.

McCann should benefit next season if the Braves acquire a cleanup hitter -- throughout his career, McCann has been a better 5th or 6th-place hitter, than a cleanup hitter (that's not to say he's been a bad cleanup hitter, though). I'd also like to see McCann get more regular days off next year. Ross was a more than capable backup, and another by-product of acquiring a cleanup hitter this off-season could be that McCann might be able to get a few more days off.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Brian McCann	138	488	63	137	35	1	21	94	49	83	4	1	.281	.349	.486

Coming up tomorrow we'll take a look at the 2009 season of David Ross.

Game 160 Recap: Nationals 6, Braves 3

gondeee — Sat, 03 Oct 2009 15:21:01 -0000

Derek Lowe pretty much laid an egg in this game. For going down the stretch like such a lion, the Braves seem to be intent on closing out this season like a lamb. I tied one on at Le Flash last night, so I was not one of the dozens of people who watched this game.

There's not too much to say about this game, read here if you want a recap. Martin Prado had four hits, and David Ross had a big hit that put the Braves in front for a half inning. The middle of the Braves lineup was totally lost at the plate. The bullpen put in some good work.

Final - 10.2.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Washington Nationals	0	1	3	0	2	0	0	0	0	6	10	1
Atlanta Braves	0	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	11	1
WP: Livan Hernandez (9 - 12) SV: Mike MacDougal (20) LP: Derek Lowe (15 - 10)

Complete Coverage >

Game 145 Recap: Mets 5, Braves 6

gondeee — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 12:46:15 -0000

More photos » by John Amis - AP

Atlanta Braves' David Ross scores the game-winning run on a error as New York Mets catcher Omir Santos waits for the throw in the ninth inning of a baseball game Wednesday, Sept. 16, 2009 in Atlanta.

Browse more photos »

Guess who didn't stay up for this one? (It was a two-hour rain delay.) Guess who missed a terrific comeback? We put together an improbable komeback against K-Rod to win the game in the ninth. Here's the scoop:

[Francisco Rodriguez], who entered to end the eighth inning with a strikeout of Martin Prado, encountered immediate ninth-inning trouble when his former Angels teammate Garret Anderson produced a leadoff single with the help of David Murphy, who wasn't hugging the first-base line.

Five batters later, after Omar Infante had delivered a game-tying sacrifice fly, Rodriguez found his evening further marred by [Ryan Church's] grounder that bounced over the first-base bag and ran up Murphy's arm. As the Mets first baseman again unsuccessfully attempted to secure the ball, David Ross raced from second base with the winning run.

If Ross had only had to slide, that would have been shades of Sid Bream coming around to score. To me, the big play was Infante coming through with a runner on third and less than two outs. So often we've scuffled in those situations.

Braves' starter Derek Lowe exited in the third inning with a blister on his right ring finger -- something that has crept up on him previously this season. Mike Gonzalez also exited the game with a "stiff back," or the new symptom of our bullpen, "Bobby Cox arm."

Nice win for Atlanta, too bad that everyone in front of us also won, but hey, you've got to keep pace. Perhaps it is the intention of the Braves to not lose a game for the rest of the year.

In "The King & I," it's referred to as "The Small House of Carnal Pleasures of Uncle Thomas." Reds win, 4-2 in extras.

Brendanukkah — Sun, 06 Sep 2009 22:45:29 -0000

Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Micah Owings. Even though Micah cannot possibly be a starter [reasons for this pending], he stepped up with two shutout innings of relief, then got the win by being hit in the head to drive in the winning run. We hope that he's okay. Johnny Cueto also pitched six innings of one run ball and struck out nine. Drew Stubbs went 3-5 with a home run.

Key Plays

In the third inning of this pitcher's duel, Johnny Cueto led off with a single, followed by Drew Stubbs's single. Cueto came around to score on Darnell McDonald's single up the middle. With one run in, two runners on, no outs and the heart of the order coming up, the Reds looked poised to do some real damage. But Joey Votto struck out, Stubbs was caught stealing third, and Brandon Phillips grounded out.
Adam LaRoche's single in the fourth broke up Johnny Cueto's no-hitter, but he was immediately stranded.
Former Red David Ross helped level things with a one out walk in the fifth. Nate McLouth moved him to second one out later with a single, and Martin Prado doubled to bring him in.
After six stellar innings, Jared Burton came in to relieve Cueto. He immediately gave up a home run to David Ross, and a single to Kelly Johnson. Danny Ray Herrera came in and got a fly out from McLouth and a double play from Prado. Would this be the end of the Reds winning streak?
No! Drew Stubbs hit his fifth home run of his young season to tie the game with two outs in the eighth inning.
Bonus Baseball! Stubbs hit a triple in the eleventh inning, but was thrown out at the plate by Nate McLouth after he tried to score on McDonald's fly out.
In the twelfth inning, Votto drew a leadoff walk, and Scott Rolen moved him to third with a single. Wladimir Balentien also walked and the bases were loaded for Micah Owings. Kenshin Kawakami unloaded a pitch that hit Owings in the head. It was a scary moment, but the winning run came in. Corky Miller hit a sacrifice fly to bring in Rolen for an insurance run.
Not that it was needed. Francisco Cordero struck out the side for his 33rd save.

via FanGraphs

Other Notes

After getting hit in the batting helmet, Owings walked off the field under his own power.
The Reds have won their seventh straight and 12 of 14. It's not surprising that this is happening without Willy Taveras and Alex Gonzalez, though it is surprising that Justin Lehr and Kip Wells have been important parts of this hot streak.
Tim Hudson retired the last 14 batters he faced.
The Reds are now only three games out of third place in the NL Central.
Drew Stubbs has five home runs in 87 plate appearances.
The Reds have swept three of their last four series.

Final - 9.6.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	R	H	E
Cincinnati Reds	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	4	7	1
Atlanta Braves	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	5	0
WP: Micah Owings (7 - 12) SV: Francisco Cordero (33) LP: Kenshin Kawakami (7 - 11)

Complete Coverage >

Building a team the Astros way, and building a team the smart way

HighLeveragePerformer — Sat, 29 Aug 2009 11:00:29 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

An entire outfield of 2009 free agents could be assembled, make less money than Carlos combined and out produce him dramatically.

Browse more photos »

The Astros are going to have to indulge in the free agent market of 2010 in order to field a competitive team next season. I don't think that anyone here would try to argue that point. How and who are the two questions that go along with free agent signings, as in how much to spend, and who to sign?

Well, it's still too early to really get down to the nitty gritty of things, but what we can do is look back and identify bargains and trends in the marketplace. Sky Andrecheck of Baseball Analysts did just that in a recent post which looked at the free agent class of 2009 and built a team from those players. He describes his experiment much better than I ever could, but suffice it to say, bargains do exist.

Who did he select to be a part of the club?

Catchers: Gregg Zaun, David Ross

Infielders: Wes Helms, Felipe Lopez, Casey Blake, Juan Uribe Craig Counsell

Total $ spent: $15.3 million, Total WAR: 13.1

Outfielders/DH: Bobby Abreu, Juan Rivera, Scott Podsednik, Raul Ibanez

Total $ spent: $35 million, Total WAR: 23.6

Starting Pitchers: Mike Hampton, Brad Penny, Carl Pavano, Randy Wolf, CC Sabathia

Total $ spent: $78.8 million, Total WAR: 35.3

That club is good for a 71-49 record through 120 games, solid enough for a playoff spot. Bargains are easier to find offensively than in pitching, so the Sabathia signing was by leaps and bounds the most outlandish contract he chose to take on.

Painfully, let's determine the Astros' team WAR, or at least a rough approximation of it.

Offensively: The entire Astros' offense (not counting the negative values that most of our pitchers/bench has contributed) is good for a WAR of 15.1. Unlike the all free agent team, the Astros offense has gotten 43% of its output from two players: Lance Berkman and Michael Bourn.

Sort of a "fun" sidenote: Pudge's WAR in total is .8, while his Astro-WAR is .6. He's added .2 WAR since joining the Rangers....less than 2 weeks ago.

Pitching: Just counting our starting pitchers' contributions, including the negative WARs for Brandon Backe and Felipe Paulino, the staff WAR is 7.5. Add it all up, and the Astros have a 22.6 team WAR, 12.7 wins less than Andrecheck's fictitious club. Drayton McLane has also spent roughly $20 million more on the players who I used in this article, not counting fairly large contracts for relievers like LaTroy Hawkins, Doug Brocail and Tim Byrdak, and bench players like Jason Michaels and Darin Erstad.

I come to the same conclusion as Andrecheck does: it's possible to build a playoff contender just in free agency, but it's too difficult without being able to look back on things. There are plenty of ways to be successful in MLB, but it's becoming obvious that the Astros aren't doing any of them.

Braves Batting Positional Ranks

gondeee — Wed, 26 Aug 2009 17:39:22 -0000

More photos » by John Bazemore - AP

Atlanta Braves' Brian McCann leads the best offensive catching unit in the National League.

Browse more photos »

Here is a look at where the Atlanta Braves rank by position compared to the rest of the National League.

Catcher: The Braves, and Brian McCann, are 1st in OPS by almost 80 points over second place. The Braves hold a dominant offensive edge is the NL at the catching position. This is also helped greatly by a more-than-capable backup in David Ross.

First Base: On the season our first baseman rank 11th in OPS, but that has obviously been greatly improved as of late since Adam LaRoche has posted a 1.186 OPS since joining the Braves. The fact that he has been so good lately, and we're still only 11th, underscores how pitiful Casey Kotchman was when compared against the offense that the rest of the league is getting out of their first basemen.

Second Base: Even with the early season struggles of Kelly Johnson, Atlanta second basemen are 4th in the NL in OPS with a .782. Again, this illustrates how valuable Martin Prado has been, since Kelly has a .683 OPS on the year, and Prado an .815 (see note below). Good work from Omar Infante while playing second and Brooks Conrad also contribute to the good overall number.

Third Base: This is mainly Chipper Jones, but the number is brought down by some bad offense when Prado and Infante play third. Atlanta ranks 6th in the NL, but if it were just Chipper, they would probably rank somewhere around 3rd or 4th.

A Note here about Prado and Infante: As a second baseman, Prado has a .922 OPS, Infante a .926, but as third basemen Prado stinks it up with a .578 OPS and Infante a .511. Both of them have combined for 110 plate appearances at third, so that is no small number or lack of offense. Strange that their fortunes at the plate turn out so different when they man the hot corner.

Shortstop: Atlanta ranks 5th here with a .759 OPS, which is clearly a result of way too much playing time going to Diory Hernandez and his .410 OPS. Yunel Escobar's .816 OPS should be good enough for 3rd in the league.

Left Field: Here comes the pitiful. Atlanta's left fielders lead the Atlanta outfield contingent with a .769 OPS which actually ranks 7th in the league.

Center Field: Jordan Schafer is still pulling down this rank, all the way to 14th in the league with a combined .667 OPS, ahead of only Arizona and Cincinnati.

Right Field: A .717 OPS and 15th in the league (next to last, ahead of only San Diego), and believe me, that has improved lately because Jeff Francoeur had a .634 OPS as a member of the Braves this season.

If you want to look at where the problem is with the Braves offense this season, it's in the traditional power positions of first base and the outfield. We seem to have solved first base, and now McLouth, Church, and Diaz should at least get on base and hit for sub-homerun power in the outfield. The problem is that for far too many games we relied on offense from center field, right field, and first base which never materialized. We may be winning games now, but if we don't make the post season, we can point to the first two-thirds of the season where our inept offense from those positions likely cost us the necessary wins to be in contention.

Ryan Hanigan Proclaims to Runners that Thou Shalt Not Steal

Slyde — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 17:00:17 -0000

I don't know the religious affiliation of Ryan Hanigan, but he sure takes the 8th Commandment very seriously. This season he has been tremendous at keeping base runners at bay, throwing out 56% of the runners who have tried to steal on him. That rate is easily the best in the Majors for any catcher who has caught at least 25 innings this season.

I was interested in precisely how much Hanigan has helped his cause with his arm. A couple of people have devised methods for measuring the value of a catcher's arm, but I felt like they were a little short, especially given the data that is currently available to us. So, I decided to take a stab at it myself. I based some of what I did off of Chone Smith's work at BBTF back in 2005, and I don't know if he's updated it, but I felt like it could be improved upon in a spot or two. Here are the results that I came up with.

Runs Saved by Catcher Throwing Arms
Rank	Player	Tm	Inn	SBO	SB	CS	CS Catch	CS%	CS Runs	PO Runs	Rep Runs	Net Runs Saved	RSAA
1	Ryan Hanigan	CIN	279.2	449	8	10	10	56%	2.88	0.88	0.14	3.90	5.29
2	Yadier Molina	STL	475	752	11	9	5	45%	0.11	1.76	0.38	2.25	4.58
3	Ivan Rodriguez	HOU	417.2	670	10	9	7	47%	1.18	0.44	0.32	1.94	4.02
4	Gerald Laird	DET	431.2	662	21	12	12	36%	1.29	0.44	0.12	1.85	3.90
5	David Ross	ATL	191.1	292	13	11	9	46%	1.49	0.44	-0.08	1.85	2.76
6	Henry Blanco	SDP	206	335	15	9	9	38%	1.11	0.44	-0.04	1.51	2.55
7	Kenji Johjima	SEA	208	334	13	11	9	46%	1.49	0.00	-0.04	1.45	2.49
8	Rob Johnson	SEA	262.1	407	18	9	8	33%	0.10	0.88	-0.02	0.96	2.22
9	Ramon Castro	NYM	36	321	8	7	6	47%	1.12	0.00	0.08	1.20	2.20
10	Rod Barajas	TOR	425.2	616	27	12	10	31%	-0.73	0.88	-0.02	0.13	2.04
	Other Reds
21	Ramon Hernandez	CIN	287.1	452	19	10	5	34%	-1.41	0.88	-0.02	-0.55	0.85
	Bottom 5
79	John Buck	KCR	173	304	22	2	2	8%	-3.30	0.00	-0.08	-3.38	-2.44
80	Victor Martinez	CLE	259	420	27	3	3	10%	-3.81	0.00	-0.06	-3.87	-2.57
81	A.J. Pierzynski	CHW	439.2	726	37	3	1	8%	-6.59	0.00	0.08	-6.51	-4.26
82	Jason Varitek	BOS	419.2	681	47	11	6	19%	-6.29	0.00	-0.24	-6.53	-4.41
83	Nick Hundley	SDP	353	553	40	4	3	9%	-6.28	0.00	-0.14	-6.42	-4.70

Glossary: Inn - innings as catcher; SBO - plate appearances with runner on 1st or 2nd and the next base open; CS Catch - caught stealing where the catcher gets an assist; CS Runs - net runs saved on steal attempts; PO Runs - runs saved by catcher pickoffs; Rep Runs - runs saved based on catcher reputation; Runs Saved - total runs saved; RSAA - runs saved above (or below) the average catcher

As you can see, Hanigan has been a badass with his arm this year. Saving 5 runs may not seem like a lot, but we're just over a third of the way into the season and Hanigan has only played in half of the innings , and yet he's still saved 5 runs over an average catcher in that same amount of playing time. Granted, he's likely to regress as the season continues, but to this point, he's been the best throwing catcher in the Majors. It's especially exciting to see his name above two of the greats in the game. Not bad for a rookie.

Ramon Hernandez has also thrown out quite a few runners himself, but he's not really in Hanigan's league so far this season. You'll also notice former Red David Ross in at #5. In limited playing time he's having one of his best seasons ever throwing out base runners.

For those that are interested in how the sausage is made, I'll explain my methodology after the jump.

First of all, I took the obvious path of calculating the run value of each catcher's stolen bases allowed versus their caught stealings where the catcher got an assist. This is a little different than what Smith did back in 2005, because he included all caught stealings, which means he included pick off-caught stealing, which the catcher does not get an assist on. Like Smith, I used the linear weight run values for SB (-0.19 runs) and CS (0.44) runs to tally up those values.

The next thing I added that Smith did not have, mainly because it wasn't available back then, is pick offs by the catcher. I gave those the same run value as a caught stealing since it is essentially the same thing.

Finally, like Smith, I thought that it was important to give the catcher credit for his reputation. In his prime, Johnny Bench didn't throw out a lot of runners, but that was mainly because people stopped running on him. Obviously there is some great value in that. There are a couple of differences in the way that I calculated reputation value though. First, Smith estimates the number of expected stolen base attempts based on catcher innings. Thanks to Baseball-Reference, we can be a little more precise. Now we know just how many times a catcher had to face a runner on 1st or 2nd with a base open in front of them. Using this information, we can estimate the number of runners who choose not to attempt a steal against a catcher compared to the rate at which a base runner attempts a steal against an average catcher. This net value will give us an indication of how comfortable runners are at attempting to steal against a specific catcher.

The second difference in the reputation value calculation that I came up with is that I don't credit the catcher with keeping a double play in tact, rather I credit him with saving the runs that an average catcher would give up in those extra opportunities where the runner does not run. For instance, if a catcher has 400 stolen base opportunities and runners only attempt to steal 5% of the time compared to a league average of 10% (for instance), then that catcher's reputation has stifled the running game by 20 steal attempts. If the average base stealer is successful 75% of the time, then theoretically that catcher has prevented 15 extra stolen bases as well as 5 caught stealings. Using linear weights, this catcher's reputation saved his team 0.65 runs.

NOTE: Obviously, depressed or increased stolen base attempts aren't all the fault of the catcher. Some catchers are lucky enough to catch multiple pitchers with excellent pick off moves, so they could be benefiting from that. Also, there is the issue of game situations. Catchers who frequently catch in blowouts are probably less likely to have stolen bases attempted on them. I know this reputation metric isn't pristine, but as you can see it's also not a very big chunk of the pie either. I feel like it's still a good way to boost up numbers for a catcher like Yadier Molina whose reputation clearly keeps him from throwing out more runners.

I totaled all of these run values up to get a net runs saved value and then compared it to the average catcher rate for that player's playing time (based on SB Opportunities). That is how I get the Runs Saved Above Average value.

I'm interested in hearing what critiques you might have of this, so please fire away. I'm sure I've probably recreated the work of somebody out there, but I wanted to do this my own way just for the fun of it. If you feel like there is something that I've left out or someone who does it better, please point me to their work because I'd love to continue to refine this.