SB Nation - Cody Ross

Hanley and Cody the Birthday Boys

GameFish — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 16:28:40 -0000

FishStripes would like to wish Cody Ross and Hanley Ramirez a very happy birthday! Cody turns 29 years old today, while All Star shortstop Hanley is celebrating his 26th.

Hopefully the fact that they were born just two days away from Christmas doesn't mean they get the shaft on their birthday every year.

I don't really want to get into the middle of the Marlins beat writer/feature reporter battle over who broke this extremely newsworthy story, so I feel the need to let everyone know that I have memorized each and every birthday on the Marlins 40-man roster, as well the birthdays of every player, coach and bat boy in the Marlins farm system. And, might I add, Cody and Hanley's respective mothers actually deserve the credit for breaking this story. So everybody relax and breathe.

Happy Birthday, Cody & Hanley!

Alfredo Amezaga non-tendered

craig — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 05:13:14 -0000

The Marlins did not tender a contract to Alfredo Amezaga, it is official.

Alfredo is now a free agent.

Apparently they were concerned with the fact that he is still recovering from microfracture knee surgery and that he hasn't started a running program. The Marlins are leaving the door open to the possibility of re-signing Alfredo later on, but there is a problem with that. The problem is the Marlins cannot enter into negotiations with Alfredo again until March 2, 2010. That is the day when players are mandated to report to spring training. Which gives him a lot time to prove to the other clubs he is good to go while the Marlins are sitting on the sidelines.

The salsa warm up leading, life of the clubhouse, pulse of the team, unbelievable defensive specialist, fan favorite Alfredo Amezaga may never be a Marlin again. It is a sad day. Oh sure, the move that the club made is completely understandable and was the right move. But still. That really doesn't make you feel all that much better.

In other news, the Marlins reached a one-year deal with Ronny Paulino and tendered contracts to Dan Uggla, Jorge Cantu, Cody Ross, Ricky Nolasco, Josh Johnson, Leo Nunez, Renyel Pinto and Anibal Sanchez.

Ricky Nolasco being shopped?

craig — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 19:16:23 -0000

This tidbit about Ricky Nolasco came to my attention and it was a cause of some concern.

While Rizzo declined to talk about players Washington would like to acquire in a trade, a baseball source indicated that the Nats have interest in Marlins right-hander Ricky Nolasco, who won 13 games this past season.

My first reaction was, this has to be a joke. I mean, I have an interest in being a billionaire but that doesn't mean it is going to happen. Then the darker side took over me and I thought, won't we have to throw in Cody Ross also in order to get Bonifacio, Jr.?

After awhile I couldn't stand it anymore and I emailed Ricky's agent, Matt Sosnick, and asked if the Marlins were shopping Nolasco, here is what he was kind enough to take time out of his busy schedule to say (via email):

I haven't heard anything about that, but I believe that he is going to have a monster year in 2010. He is the most underrated player that I represent.

First things first, if the Marlins were indeed shopping Ricky, one would think Mr. Sosnick would know. Since he can't confirm the rumor, I will sleep better. I hate the offseason.

Second things second, I completely agree that Nolasco is in line for an outstanding 2010. Ricky has the stuff to be dominating, that has been proven. And if you want an explanation for the rough patches early on last season, you don't have to get real fancy. In 2007, Ricky had elbow problems and only threw 21.1 innings for the Marlins. In 2008, Ricky was great but threw 212.1 innings. Generally the acceptable increase, especially for a young arm, is 30 innings over the previous year. Now, everyone knew he was going to throw more than 50 innings in 2008 but over 200 is a ton for coming off elbow problems. So it wasn't surprising when at times he wasn't as sharp last season. But last year he only threw 185 innings, so there wasn't an increase in stress on his arm. Meaning, he should be good to go.

Interview with Derek Carty from The Hardball Times-Part 3

raygu — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 14:00:20 -0000

Here is part 3 of the 4-part interview with Derek Carty from The Hardball Times:

Fake Teams: When evaluating hitters before a draft, I like to look at their previous year's stats and decide if the hitter can improve upon those stats or not. How do you evaluate hitters when preparing for a draft?

Derek Carty: My approach is a bit different and comprehensive, but here's the general gist of it. I look at a lot of different things for hitters. For power, I've created a statistic using HitTracker data which I call True Home Runs (or tHR). What this aims to do is take some of the luck out of home runs. You'll often hear people say something like "a home run is a home run", but that couldn't be further from the truth. A guy who pounds a 500-foot home run is much more likely to hit more home runs than a guy who squeaks one over a 320 foot fence, ceteris paribas. He's stronger, and if he can hit the long ones, he's only guaranteed to hit some short ones. tHR first neutralizes park and weather (obvious influencers ) and also accounts for the distance of home runs (not so obvious but very important influencer). The logic behind doing this might not be readily apparent, so you can read more in-depth explanations here and here (the articles are older and from the preliminary stages of development, but the logic is still relevant).

For batting average, I'll focus on the three things that it is comprised of: how often the batter puts the ball in play (strikeout rate), how often those balls clear the fence (home run rate), and how often the remaining balls in play fall for hits (BABIP). Strikeout rate is a very stable stat, so not much needs to be altered with it. For the HR component I'll use tHR and for BABIP I'll use xBABIP. This is not the xBABIP that some refer to, calculated as LD%+.120. I've found this to be worse than actual BABIP in predictive ability and should always be ignored for these purposes. Instead, I like using the xBABIP created by Chris Dutton and Peter Bendix, which I've found to be very predictive (relatively speaking). In fact, I'm actually working with Dutton now on further improving the formula. That work should be published later in the off-season.

As I mentioned earlier, I'm also currently working on a form of CAPS for hitters, which I suppose will be called CABS (Context Adjusted Batting Statistics), so that'll be thrown into my evaluations. Eventually, it'll all boil down to my projection system spitting out a projection for every hitter, which will encompass all of the concepts I've described above and a few more. For some hitters, I'll probably supplement these projections with my scouting perspective as with the pitchers.

More after the jump:

Fake Teams: I have won a few NL-only 5x5 leagues by drafting just middle relievers and closers and focusing on drafting hitters early. Other than your LABR draft strategy, what other draft strategies have you used, and how successful were they?

Derek Carty: I believe it's crucial to create your strategies based on the specifics of the league: the settings, the opponents, and what you know about your own tendencies within the context of these things. In some leagues, I'll refuse to draft closers until the end. In others, I'll take a pair of them early. In some, I'll embrace risky players. In others, I'll play it safe for the first half of the draft or longer. There are some general rules for these things (i.e. the shallower the league, the easier it is to take risks) but every league truly is different and must be evaluated individually.

As one example from this season, I played in an expert league run by KFFL with some heavy competition (partnered up with fellow-THT writer Eriq Gardner, though he replaced Victor Wang after the draft, who left THTF to do some work for MLB clubs). It was a 12-team mixed Yahoo! League. We focused on hitters early, taking mostly guys with good health records and stable skill sets with just one pitcher in the single-digit rounds, then grabbed several SPs in the early teens (including Javy Vazquez - in 12-team mixed leagues, I've found that there's a treasure trove of good pitchers to be had in this area). After that we went for some high-upside guys (like Matt Wieters and Nyjer Morgan) or undervalued guys (like Cody Ross and J.D. Drew), and eventually took a couple of closer candidates towards the end.

One smaller strategy we really looked to employ focused on deliberately getting a few injury risk players. I feel that the market does not value these players properly, leaving excess value ripe for the picking. I explained last year that if you combine the stats of a high-skill, injury-prone player with those of a replacement level player (when he's injured), you end up with a stat line well-worth the reduced cost of the so-called "injury risk" player. This is a strategy that will only work in shallower leagues like this one, though, because the static production of the replacement level players is much higher than it will be in deep leagues. In an AL/NL-only league, this would fail miserably because replacement level is someone like Juan Castro. In KFFL, we looked to use it with Chase Utley (whose status was unknown at draft time), Chipper Jones, Rich Harden, Matt Wieters, J.D. Drew, and a couple others. We were also very active on the waiver wire (over 200 transactions), keeping several rotating bench spots and streaming extra hitters on Mondays and Thursdays and elite relievers on the other days. We didn't start this until June, though, which likely cost us the league. We ultimately finished 3^rd, though it was very close and we were in 1^st just a few days before the end of the season.

MLB Trade Rumors: Jeremy Hermida Traded to the Red Sox

raygu — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 16:30:24 -0000

More photos » by Lenny Ignelzi - AP

5 months ago: Florida Marlins' Jeremy Hermida watches his sacrifice fly to left field that scored Emilio Bonifacio from third in the fifth inning in a baseball game Tuesday, July 21, 2009, in San Diego. (AP Photo/Lenny Ignelzi)

Browse more photos »

The Florida Marlins are going through their second year of trading arbitration eligible players this offseason, and they started by shipping outfielder Jeremy Hermida to the Red Sox for two minor league pitchers I have never heard of. I am sure you all know that Hermida was once the top prospect in baseball, but he is one of the many who have never lived up to their potential for various reasons.

This deal benefits owners of Cameron Maybin. Here is what Joe Frisaro from MLB.com had to say after dealing Hermida:

Florida expects to bring back Cody Ross, who also is eligible for arbitration, to play right field. The team's outfield projects to be Chris Coghlan in left field, Cameron Maybin in center and Ross in right. Coghlan, however, may wind up at second base. There is a strong likelihood that Dan Uggla will be traded.

If Coghlan moves back to the infield, the Marlins have several outfield prospects, including Scott Cousins and Mike Stanton.

"If Maybin slides into center field, Cody can play right," Beinfest said. "Stanton and Cousins are on their way. We thought we were dealing from an area of depth. And also, within our payroll, our allocations need to be in the best place to be most competitive. Obviously, [Hermida] is a second-time arbitration player."

Cousins and Stanton both finished the 2009 season in AA Jacksonville. Cousins hit .268 with 12 HRs, 74 RBI and 27 SBs in 130 games. Stanton went 16-53-.231-.311-.455 in 299 ABs for Jacksonville. But don't forget about AA outfielder Bryan Peterson who is currently hitting very well in the Arizona Fall League. Peterson went 7-49-13-.297-.368-.413 in 2009.

But, where does Hermida play in Boston? They have JD Drew in right field and Jacoby Ellsbury in centerfield. Could Hermida be the starting left-fielder in Boston in 2010?

Poll

What are the chances Jeremy Hermida starts in Boston in 2010?

zero

49 votes

0-25%

78 votes

25-50%

45 votes

> 50%

44 votes

216 votes | Poll has closed

Jeremy Hermida Traded

craig — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 23:38:10 -0000

The Marlins traded Jeremy Hermida to the Boston Red Sox for two left handed pitchers.

The Boston Red Sox today acquired outfielder Jeremy Hermida from the Florida Marlins in exchange for left-handed pitchers Hunter Jones and Jose Alvarez.

---

Jones, 25, made his Major League debut with Boston in 2009 and appeared in 11 games in relief. The left-hander posted a 9.24 ERA (13 ER/12.2 IP) with the Red Sox, compiling nine strikeouts. In 36 relief outings with Triple-A Pawtucket, he was 4-3 with two saves and a 4.25 ERA (25 ER/53.0 IP). Signed by the Red Sox as a non-drafted free agent on July 23, 2005, Jones went 22-14 with 22 saves and a 3.09 ERA (116 ER/338.0 IP) in 178 career minor league games (six starts) in the Boston organization.

The 20-year-old Alvarez combined to go 9-4 with a 2.26 ERA (27 ER/107.2 IP) and 74 strikeouts compared to 16 walks in 26 games (12 starts) between Single-A Salem and Short-A Lowell in 2009. He led the New York-Penn League with a 1.52 ERA (14 ER/83.0 IP) while recording eight wins over 14 outings (12 starts) with Lowell. Signed by the Red Sox as a non-drafted free agent on July 2, 2005, the left-hander has compiled a 23-15 record and a 3.21 ERA (116 ER/325.2 IP) in 76 career minor league appearances (48 starts) in the Red Sox system.

The trading of Hermida comes as no shock. During Hermida's time with the Marlins he never lived up to what he was anticipated to be as a player. At one time Hermida was considered the second best prospect in all of baseball, however that didn't blossom the way the Marlins hoped it would. But being ranked as the second best prospect in baseball always means you have trade value because there is always some club, somewhere, who will be willing to take the chance that you are a late bloomer. And maybe that is the case, who knows. We will see.

This leaves the right field door wide open and the Marlins have more than enough quality outfielders to fill the bill. On the surface this is good news for the prospects of the Marlins retaining the services of Cody Ross.

More on this later, since to be honest, I need to look up the new guys.

Market for Jeremy Hermida

craig — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 13:37:10 -0000

It turns out there are a bunch of teams who possibly want to add the services of Jeremy Hermida to their squad.

Speculation continues to run high that the Marlins will trade outfielder Jeremy Hermida this offseason.

---

The Marlins are hopeful Cameron Maybin will win the center field position, and Cody Ross is expected to return. Ross, also in his second season of arbitration, could be earmarked for right field, making Hermida expendable.

Some teams believed to be interested in Hermida are the Mariners, Rays, Mets and Blue Jays. The Cubs also could have interest.

The good news, if this holds true, is that Cody will be returning. Ross is better center fielder than a right fielder, don't ask me why. And at this point in Maybin's career, Cody is the better center fielder of the two. But Cameron is more comfortable in center and if he can hit we can live with him learning to get better in the field. The best defensive outfielder the Marlins have in the organization is, of course, Brett Carroll.

This will be an interesting offseason and spring training to see how the outfield shakes out. Is Coghlan going to remain in left? Will Cody actually be back? Is the light bulb going to illuminate for Maybin? Is Carroll finally going to be given a chance?

All of the answers to these questions will come later.

Cody Ross makes a change in walk-up music

craig — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 13:19:28 -0000

More photos » by Lynne Sladky - AP

Browse more photos »

Cody Ross decided to make a change in his walk-up song.

Cody Ross is giving some brotherly love when he comes to the plate.

The Marlins outfielder has switched up his introduction song. He's been coming to bat to Kanye West's "Amazing."

On Saturday, Ross decided to keep his musical choice within his family. Ross's brother, Oscar Ross, is the lead singer of a Denver-based rock group called -- Lords of Fuzz.

If you believe in fate, maybe the change wasn't such a good idea.

Cody Ross was plunked on the left hand in the fourth inning by a John Maine fastball, and the Marlins center fielder was immediately replaced.

The team announced Ross has a left wrist contusion. An X-ray came back negative, and he is listed as day-to-day.

I am all for supporting family, when and where you can. However, maybe, just maybe, this wasn't the best idea. Cody was hot, now he is injured. Hasn't he seen the movie Bull Durham? You never mess with a streak.

2010 Yankees Center Field Showdown: Melky Cabrera vs. Brett Gardner vs... Cody Ross?

devil_fingers — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 15:12:29 -0000

More photos » by Julie Jacobson - AP

"Don't celebrate my departure too soon (at a baseball game), boys. I hear Goldman wants Ca$h to bring in Cody Ross. Yeah, you heard, me, Cody Freaking Ross. He has a fan club and everything."

Browse more photos »

In a recent Pinstriped Bible blog posting, Steven Goldman argued that while Melky Cabrera might be adequate for the moment as the starting center fielder for the Yankees, that the club should look elsewhere for next season. Goldman's main point:

It would be unrealistic to expect even a team with the financial capabilities of the Yankees to field an All-Star or MVP candidate at every position, but that's not a reason to keep striving to get better wherever you can, however you can. It is axiomatic that a team that accepts that it is "good enough" at a position will not win consistently, or at all. Complacency will kill a nascent dynasty faster than hamstring pulls and cigarettes combined.

There is much to comment on in this blog posting (see the Think Factory discussion). For example, calling Nick Swisher, he of the 3.6 WAR (that's about the same as Jason Bay or J.D. Drew at this point in the season), "inconsistent" is Joe Morgan-esque. Ignoring the Yankees other significant holes for 2010 is also curious. Indeed, the whole post, with its discussions of league-average offense by position, vague references to defense without numbers, etc., strikes me as a very "pre-FanGraphs" sort of approach to internet player analysis.

However, I'm not going to be issuing a bunch of snark regarding a good writer's problematic blog posting. Rather, taking Goldman's post as a jumping-off point, I want to look at three options for the Yankee 2010 CF that he mentions: Cabrera, Brett Gardner, and the Marlins' Cody Ross (for whom Goldman suggests the Yankees trade.). I will compare them utilizing less vague and more helpful concept of WAR (Wins Above Replacement).

I've done a number of these "true talent" postings lately (on Jason Bartlett, Jamey Carroll, and Matt Murton, among others), so you can look around the blog to see how it works. I won't review all of the "methodology" here -- it's pretty simple weighted averages and regression to the mean, etc. using publicly available data. There are no big secrets. I just don't want to make this more boring than it has to be. Feel free to ask in the comments section. I'll go component by component for all three players. These are "true talent" estimates based on information as of last night. I'll go component-by-component for all players, just to mix things up.

Hitting

Melky Cabrera is the youngest player of the group, being only 24 at the beginning of the current season. His major-league wOBAs from 2006-2009 are .333, .317, .285, and .328. Regressing to the mean and applying a slight age adjustment, that projects to about a .327 wOBA for next season. Given this season's run environment, that means he projects as a minus 1 run (one run below average) hitter for 2010.

Cody Ross is 28 this season and the best hitter of the three. He will be 29 next season. From 2006-2009 his wOBAs are .310, .446, .345, and .342. He projects as a .344 wOBA (+9) hitter next season.

Brett Gardner (who is only briefly considered in Goldman's post) is 25 this season. Gardner hit terribly in the majors in 2008, posting a .282 wOBA. He's been very good relative to expectations this season, sporting a .349. But given the sample size and his performance in the minors, I decided that I needed more data. So I tried something new. I got his MLE from the minors from 2007 and 2008, converted them to wOBA, and incorporated them into my data. I'm not sure how great the method it, but the result I got -- a .318 projected wOBA (-6/700 PA) -- is close enough to his preseason projections from CHONE, etc. that I don't think it's distorted.

Fielding

For the fielding portion, I used UZR as implemented at FanGraphs as my primary stat not only because I suspect it's the best defensive stat out there, but because it's publicly and freely available. I heavily regress outfield projectoins. I regress UZR based on Speed Score, as has often been suggested for OFs. Defensive stats being what they are, I also incorporated the Tom Tango's Fans Scouting Report Converted to runs. I usually do a weighted average 75% regressed UZR + 25% FSR, but for Gardner, given the extremely low sample, I did 50% regressed UZR + 50% FSR (his defense would project even better without the FSR!).

The Milkman has been up-and-down, defensively. While he's been decent according to UZR his season (+3.1/150), in 2007, when he had the most playing time, he was dreadful (-10.7). The Fans Scouting Report is even less enthusiatic, having him at -4.8, -2.4, -2.7, and -8.0 (2006-2009) according to my "translations." So it's a mixed bad. Altogether, he projects as a -2/162 defender in CF for next season.

Cody Ross has been similarly up-and-down. He's -7.1 UZR/150 in CF this season comes after an excellent +18.3 in 2008. He was terrible in limited time in 2007, but good in 2006. The FSR hasn't been too impressed, with a -9 in 2006, a -9.5 in 2007, and a -3.5 2008. But Cody's fan club must have been working overtime this season, as he's all the way up to 0.2. PUtting it all together, and adjusting for age as Ross enters his late 20s, he projects as a -1 /162defender in CF in 2010.

Like Nyjer Morgan, Brett Gardner is the kind of player who would have been dismissed a Juan Pierre wanna-be prior to the wide public availability of defensive stats. And his numbers are so outstanding in brief playing time that they have to be taken with a grain of salt. Or, as grains of salt are expressed here -- with plenty of regression. UZR has Gardner was an insane +56.8/150 in the OF in 2008 (in only 39 games), and +14/150 in 2009. The Fans Scouting Report shows its value here by not forcing us into either taking these on face value nor dismissing them completely. The FSR has Gardner at +4.2 in 2008, and +5.8 in 2009. Putting it altogether (note his impressive speed scores), Gardner projects as a +9 defender in CF for 2010.

Baserunning

Don't worry, almost there. I used Baseball Prospectus' excellent EqBRR for this portion. Since FanGraphs' version of wOBA includes steals, I substracted that portion out. Briefly -- both Melky and Cody project as pretty much average ("0") baserunners, while Gardner, even after heavy regression due to low playing time, projects as very good at +2 (keep in mind that the "spread" is very small).

Putting It All Together

The difficult in the "old days" would have been how to weigh offense (and then how to weigh OBP and SLG relative to each other, etc.) vs. vague assertions about defense, positional value, etc. Baserunning would probably be totally ignored. But the beauty of WAR is that, while one can debate over whether the projections were done correctly, how replacement level is set, positional adjustments, etc., one can at least get it all out on the table. So here it is... in a table (ahem). Since all three players are being projected at CF, the positional adjustment is +2.5 runs per 162 games. To account for the difference in league difficutly, following Tom Tango I use 20 runs as replacement per 162 games for the NL (Ross) and 25 runs for the AL (Cabrera and Gardner). It's easy from there: I sum all those toger to get Runs Above Replacement (RAR). Then I convert to WAR by multplying RAR times 85% playing time, then simply dividing by 10 to convert runs to wins.

Player	Hit	Field	BsR	Pos	Replace	RAR	WAR
Melky Cabrera	-1	-2	0	+2.5	+25	24.5	2.1
Cody Ross	+9	-1	0	+2.5	+20	28	2.4
Brett Gardner	-6	+9	+2	+2.5	+25	30	2.6

Goldman writes that Gardner is only "fractionally" better than Melky, and given the nature of WAR, 0.5 isn't a huge deal. But he does look better. What is interesting is that Gardner also projects to be better than Cody Ross. If you don't but the league adjustment, well, I'll just ask you to compare the NL East's pitching staffs with those in the AL East. Despite recent comedic assertions that Brett Gardner should only be at the head of a list of terrible baseball players, he's seems to be above average here (2 is about MLB average), and the best candidate of the three to play center field for the Yankees. He's another potential Endy Chavez (another defensive standout player underappreciated in the pre-UZR era), and might actually have a shot at having a league-average bat. Gardner might not be 1998 Bernie Williams in 1998, but he might be 2009 Nyjer Morgan.

But this isn't all about Gardner. Melky is still almost as good as Ross. Don't get me wrong -- Ross is a decent player that could help a lot of teams. But why should the Yankees trade talent for a guy who, if he's better, is himself "fractionally" better than the alternatives (at best), older, and, yes, getting more expensive? Even the Yankees operate on a budget, and as we've seen, even they occasionally need to rely on some homegrown talent (e.g., Robinson Cano, Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, etc.) rather than free agency. Even if the Yankees should panic (they shouldn't) over Austin Jackon only hitting four home runs this season, they have cost-controlled talent that should be more than adequate in place.

Finally, given that they have a massive holes opening up in left field and at DH with the free agency of the declining Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui (not to mention their relatively shaky pitching), it seems to me that the Yankees considerable organizational resources would be better spent elsewhere, say, on Matt Holliday (easily the best free agent outfielder this season -- far superior to Jason Bay, but that's another post) for LF. If they must trade, make it for Adam Dunn as DH (although I'd suggest trying to sign Jim Thome or especially Russell Branyan for that position -- Branyan in particular can actually play the field a bit and will be cheaper).

These are much bigger issues than being "stuck " with a player who is "only" average or above-average at center field, a problem that wouldn't be solved by trading for an older player who isn't any better. On the other hand, if the Yankees really share Goldman's low appraisal of both Cabrera and Gardner, I know a team short a couple of outfielders...

Punchless: Marlins 3, Phillies 0

WholeCamels — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 02:31:58 -0000

More photos » by Wilfredo Lee - AP

Cody Ross, getting awfully close to a full-on Al Jolson. (AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee)

Browse more photos »

Anibal Sanchez dominated the Phillies tonight, going eight innings and allowing just two hits (both to Chase Utley) as the Marlins took the nightcap of today's doubleheader by a score of 3-0.

Jamie Moyer pitched relatively well, as is his custom against the Marlins, allowing three runs on the night, including solo homers by Dan Uggla and Cody Ross.

Not much else to say here, except that the Phillies Magic Number still sits at 5, as the Braves beat the Mets. In the race for home-field advantage, the Phillies lost ground to both the Cardinals and the Dodgers, both winners.

Finale to the series tomorrow. Cole Hamels goes for the Phillies.