SB Nation - Joel Hanrahan

Fantasy Baseball: Profiling Yesterday's Non-Tenders

raygu — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 17:00:20 -0000

by Al Behrman - AP

2 months ago: Pittsburgh Pirates closer Matt Capps pitches against the Cincinnati Reds in the ninth inning of a baseball game, Friday, Oct. 2, 2009, in Cincinnati. Pittsburgh won the game 3-1. (AP Photo/Al Behrman)

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Yesterday was the last day that teams could offer contracts to their arbitration-eligible players, and there were some interesting non-tenders for sure. Let's take a look:

Matt Capp, CL, PITT

The Pirates will now go into spring training looking for a closer, unless they veer off course and sign a free agent like Jose Valverde, Mike Gonzalez, Fernando Rodney, or Kevin Gregg. They also could dangle Andy Laroche in a deal for a closer since they traded for Akinori Iwamura to play second base. That assumes that Pedro Alvarez wins the Pirates 3B job out of spring training, otherwise Laroche will be the Pirates 3Bman. Here is what MLB.com said about the Pirates closer situation:

In the meantime, the Pirates now have even more work to do to construct a bullpen that had already lost Jesse Chavez in an offseason trade. One thing the Pirates do seem confident in, though, is that their next closer could come in-house, as both Joel Hanrahan and Evan Meek are likely to garner consideration for the role.

I don't see either Hanrahan or Meek keeping the job. Capps Is coming off his worst year of his career as he ended the year with a 5.80 ERA. Could the Phillies take a chance on Capps to backup Lidge?

Jonny Gomes, OF, CIN

Gomes is coming off a season where he went 20-51-.267-.338-.541-.879. Gomes could be a nice pickup for a team that wants to platoon his vs. left-handed pitchers as he hit .307-.369-.545-.914 against lefties in 2009. In his career, Gomes has hit .274-.369-.517-.885 vs lefties.

it appears the Reds will go into spring training with an open competition in LF with Wladimir Balentein, Chris Dickerson, Chris Heisey and Todd Frazier vying for the spot.

Kelly Johnson, 2B, ATL

Johnson is coming off a down year where he lost the second base job to Martin Prado in Atlanta. He went 8-29-7-.229-.303-.389-.692 in 2009 after going 12-69-11-.287-.349-.446-.795 in 2008. Johnson's BABIP in 2009 was a very low .247, much lower than his career BABIP average of .311. There were some positives in his 2009 season, as he lowered his K% from 18.4% to 15.6% and increased his BB% from 8.5% to 9.3%.

Johnson could be a nice sleeper in 2009 should he land a second base job. If he can bring his BABIP close to .300 and continue to show improved plate discipline, he could have another season like he did in 2008. Do you hear me Ned?

Poll

Which player has a better chance at landing a starting job in 2010?

Pirates Improbably Beat Dodgers on Lastings Milledge's Walk-Off Hit

Charlie — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 20:56:33 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

2 months ago: Pittsburgh Pirates' Lastings Milledge (85) leaps into the arms of teammate Zach Duke, left, after hitting a base clearing, three-run walk-off double off Los Angeles Dodgers closer Jonathan Broxton in the ninth inning of a baseball game in Pittsburgh Sunday, Sept. 27, 2009. The Pirates won 6-5. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

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I can't believe the Pirates won this game, which you could feel them losing as soon as Matt Capps entered a tie game in the ninth. The Dodgers could have clinched the NL West with a win today, but thanks to a crazy ninth-inning comeback by the Bucs, they'll have to wait.

The Pirates took an early lead by scoring two runs in the third on a wild pitch and an RBI double by Andy LaRoche. Daniel McCutchen started and got some help from the Dodgers, who ran themselves into two outs in what could have been a troublesome fourth inning. Still, he pitched well overall, allowing only two runs in six innings and outlasting Clayton Kershaw. The Dodgers tied the game in the seventh, though, and the Bucs couldn't retake the lead in the bottom of the inning despite a hustling one-out triple by Andrew McCutchen.

Joel Hanrahan returned and pitched a scoreless eighth, leaving with a score of 2-2. Normally I'm a fan of using your closer in high-leverage situations like a tie game in the ninth, but that's only when your closer is actually your best relief pitcher, which Capps plainly isn't right now. I found myself wondering why John Russell didn't just leave Hanrahan in. Anyway, Capps gave up three runs, leaving behind a 5-2 deficit.

Delwyn Young began the bottom of the inning with a single off the Dodgers' excellent closer Jonathan Broxton, though, and Brandon Moss and Andy LaRoche followed that with singles of their own. LaRoche's brought in Young and left the Bucs with men at second and third following an error by Rafael Furcal. The Dodgers intentionally walked Garrett Jones for the third time in the game--it was a weird game--and Lastings Milledge followed that with a long hit to right-center that probably only should have scored two runs, but was misplayed by Andre Ethier, allowing Jones to come home. What a wild game. It wasn't quite the Pirates coming back for six runs against Billy Wagner and the Astros, but it was close.

UPDATE: And... Capps gets the win. Traditional statistics!

Bucs' Bullpen Blows It

Charlie — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 02:25:20 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

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8-4 Dodgers, thanks to some truly lousy pitching by Denny Bautista, Phil Dumatrait and Steven Jackson in an eighth inning that began with a 4-3 lead. I wasn't totally sure why Bautista came in to start the inning instead of Jackson (I'm guessing Jesse Chavez wasn't available after pitching two innings yesterday), but after Jackson came in later and walked in two batters, well, I guess it didn't matter much... can we have Joel Hanrahan back? Please?

Anyway, the Bucs wasted a brilliant throw by Lastings Milledge and a great diving catch by Andrew McCutchen, not to mention Andy LaRoche's tenth homer of the year. Oh, and McCutchen got a huge hit with the bases loaded, which is the sort of thing the Pirates have seemed to consistently fail to do over the past month or so.

Could the Pirates Lose 110 Games in 2010?

Charlie — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 21:50:23 -0000

More photos » by Alan Diaz - AP

A thought experiment: Brandon Moss may be bad, but if he starts the season hitting .100, is he really a .100 hitter?

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That this post even needs to be written speaks volumes about where the Pirates are right now. But despite the Bucs' spectacular collapse since the trades, I think it's far too early to worry, as many of you have, about losing 110 games next year. It's true that the Pirates' play over the last month would put them on pace for far worse than a 110-loss season. But that doesn't mean a 110-loss season will actually happen. A 110-loss team would be among the worst teams in modern baseball history. In the last 40 years, only two teams, the 2003 Tigers and the 2004 Diamondbacks, have lost as many as 110 games in a season, which means that if the Pirates lost 110, they would have to be considered one of the worst teams in modern baseball history. I think there is plenty of evidence that shows that they are bad. I don't think there is nearly enough to show that they are historically bad.

The irony here is that, way back in 2007, I myself was pointing out that the 2010 Pirates were going to be spectacularly bad. I even suggested what some of you are now saying--that they could lose 110 games. Most of the core players on that 2007 team--Jason Bay, Adam LaRoche, Freddy Sanchez, Jose Castillo, Xavier Nady, Salomon Torres--were scheduled to become free agents after 2009, and Jack Wilson had an expensive 2010 option. In addition, they had one of the worst general managers in the history of baseball at the helm and next to nothing in the farm system. That the Bucs would be quite awful in 2010 has been obvious for a long time now, and frankly Neal Huntington bears very little responsibility for it. In 2007, it looked like a perfect storm of a terrible big-league team, no prospects and inept management was brewing, and I think it was maybe only a little hyperbolic to write that a 110-loss campaign in 2010 was likely.

The reason I don't think it's likely now is that Huntington has taken enough steps to improve the 2010 situation that I think we can remove "historically bad" from the set of likely possibilities for now.

I realize that's a counterintuitive conclusion, since clearly Huntington's eyes are set at a point well beyond 2010 and the Bucs aren't playing very well right now. But without Huntington there would be no Ross Ohlendorf or Daniel McCutchen, who were acquired in the Nady deal. There would be no Charlie Morton, since the Pirates under Littlefield would not allow Nate McLouth to start and therefore to acquire value on the trade market. It's quite possible Littlefield would have started Nyjer Morgan in 2009, but back in mid-2007 his breakout would have been extremely hard to foresee (since Morgan hadn't even made his major league debut at that point), and trading him for Lastings Milledge and Joel Hanrahan would have been even harder to foresee. Without Huntington the Pirates probably still would have had Ian Snell, but they wouldn't have Ronny Cedeno or Jeff Clement. Those guys--Ohlendorf, Morton, Milledge, Hanrahan, Cedeno, Clement--are all major league players. Maybe not great ones, in some cases, but certainly useful ones, and one characteristic of 110-loss teams is that they have very few useful players.

Also, a number of decent prospects--Pedro Alvarez, Jose Tabata, Brad Lincoln, Chase D'Arnaud, Rudy Owens, Ron Uviedo, Jeff Locke, Tim Alderson--will be either in the high minors or on the verge of arriving there. That may sound like a trivial point, but actually it isn't. 110-loss seasons can be avoided simply by having a storehouse of players who might be able to fill in competently.

Now, maybe Littlefield would have traded Bay and some of the other core players, too. I doubted that at the time, though, because doing so would have meant admitting that he basically had nothing after five or six years on the job, and because he was basically acting like 2010 did not exist, as if the Pirates would be contracted before the season started. That was my reason for thinking 110 losses was possible then. Now it appears that Huntington is at least aware that the Pirates will be playing baseball next season. That might not mean much, but it's something.

The most critical point here, though, is that losing 110 games is spectacularly difficult to do. It requires either extreme negligence or a combination of negligence and bad luck. Merely being a very poor team, which I agree the Pirates probably will be, simply does not get the job done. Let's take the two teams that lost 110, for example.

The 2004 Diamondbacks reached 110 losses through both negligence and luck. Not only did they have the worst offense in the league--an outcome that is surely also a possibility for the 2010 Pirates--but they really had no starting rotation after Randy Johnson (who was brilliant) and Brandon Webb. The five pitchers who had the most starts for them were Casey Fossum, Steve Sparks, Casey Daigle, Edgar Gonzalez, and Lance Cormier, and all of those guys had ERAs over six. Arizona finished 27th in the majors in ERA, and one of the three teams that fared worse was the Rockies. And the Diamondbacks still only got to 110 through bad luck--their Pythagorean record was "only" 54-108.

The 2010 Bucs really don't even belong in the same conversation with the '03 Tigers, who lost 119 games. The Tigers only had one pitcher throw more than 20 innings with an ERA below 4.50; the '09 Pirates, by comparison, have seven pitchers currently in their organization who have done that this year. The Tigers basically had one good hitter (Dmitri Young), and the lower part of their lineup and their bench were filled with guys (Brandon Inge, Warren Morris, Ramon Santiago, Shane Halter, Gene Kingsale, Omar Infante, Matt Walbeck, Andres Torres) who just didn't belong in the majors. It wasn't a case of a team merely being bad; it was a case of a team simply not taking the steps necessary to ensure that there was a real team on the field.

When I say that the Pirates are unlikely to lose 110 games next year, I'm not paying the Pirates a compliment. I'm just saying these 110-loss prognostications are the result of either over-the-top despair about the Bucs' recent play, or a misunderstanding about how incredibly hard it actually is to lose 110.

Another possibility is that people think you can extrapolate the Bucs' play the last couple months over the course of an entire season. You can't. By way of example, let's look at Brandon Moss. Let's say he's the Bucs' fourth outfielder next year and he starts the season 6-for-60, for a batting average of .100.

Now, we would be perfectly justified to say that Moss is terrible. We already would have been thinking that Moss is pretty terrible, given the way he hit in 2009. And then he went and started 2010 6-for-60. Ugh! Terrible.

But would be justified to say that he will continue to bat .100? Well, no. True, he already batted .100 in his first 60 at bats, but hitting .100 over the long haul is especially hard to do. First of all, we have to consider that Brandon Moss has, at various points, done things that suggest he can be much better than a .100 hitter. For example, in 2009 he's batting .241. Not very good, but way better than .100. Also, he made his way through the minors and got all the way to the big leagues, even briefly joining a good team, the Boston Red Sox. He has some skill, and players with some skill can usually hit better than .100. Even Mario Mendoza hit .215 for his career.

So we'd be justified to be annoyed at Moss' poor start. We'd also be justified to factor that poor start into our guesses about what he might do going forward. But it wouldn't make much sense to predict he'll be a .100 hitter.

Guessing the 2010 Bucs will lose 110 games is like that. Yes, they've been extremely bad since the trades. But they have three downright functional starting pitchers in Ohlendorf, Zach Duke and Paul Maholm, plus Morton, who easily could make his way into that category next year. They have Andrew McCutchen, who's a plain old good player. They have Garrett Jones who, while due for some serious regression next year, has probably staked a pretty reasonable claim that he's at least going to be useful. They have Ryan Doumit, who in 2008 was a force as an offensively-minded catcher. They have Milledge and Hanrahan, who have shown promise since arriving. They have guys like Ronny Cedeno, Andy LaRoche and Jason Jaramillo who, while they're not exactly inspiring, have shown they at least belong in the majors. There's also at least a reasonable chance that Pedro Alvarez is going to burst onto the scene at some point next season and go nuts.

I'm not saying that's much. It isn't. I'm saying it doesn't take much to avoid 110 losses, and that while anything's possible, I think the Pirates have what it takes. Don't take that as wild-eyed optimism, because again, it isn't. I'm only saying that I think the Pirates can avoid a complete disaster season, and the fact that they've actually been a disaster since the trades doesn't really change that.

Pirates Finding New Ways To Lose; Also, No More "Scholarship"

Charlie — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 04:44:26 -0000

More photos » by John Heller - AP

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Typical--the Bucs didn't get blown out by San Diego tonight, and they weren't even unambiguously bad, but they still ended up on the wrong side when the game ended. The Pirates rallied from a 6-2 deficit to tie the game against Heath Bell in the ninth, and that inning featured an awesome plate appearance by Steve Pearce, who laid off a number of tough breaking balls to draw a walk and keep the inning going. But their lack of a real bullpen ultimately undid them as they headed to extra innings--any team with bullpen troubles will be exposed in an 11-inning game, and in this case the Pirates were in a doubly tough spot because Joel Hanrahan, their best reliever by a mile right now, is on the shelf with elbow trouble. Anyway, if you have to rely on the likes of Jeff Karstens in a tough situation, there's a very good chance you're going to lose.

In the meantime, the Bucs' offense did the team no favors by leaving a ridiculous number of batters on base--the Bucs wrangled eleven hits and nine walks, but only scored six times. Garrett Jones hit his 20th home run of the season but, as has so often been the case for him (and I'm not bashing him for this because I don't think it represents a skill, just pointing out a fact), it was a solo job.

Whatever! I'm tired of this. Let's talk about something else. Let's talk about the word "scholarship." I come to bury that word, to attempt to remove it from Pirates-related discourse, except as it applies to draftees. For example, "Colton Cain passed up a scholarship to the University of Texas" is an acceptable use of the word. But "I don't know why Andy LaRoche is still starting, since Neal Huntington promised there would be no scholarships" is not. The attempted removal of a word sounds pretty fascist of me, I admit, but I'm not forcing anyone to stop using it, and if the tactic is good enough for an institution of higher learning, it's good enough for me.

I believe Huntington introduced the concept of a "scholarship." Unfortunately, I can't find its point of origin, because if you Google "neal huntington" and "scholarship" on the Post-Gazette's website, you get an amazing 124 results. What I took Huntington to mean or, at least, what most Pirate fans currently interpret Huntington to mean, is that under-performing players would not be given "scholarships"; that is, they would not receive playing time they did not earn on the field.

This was a stupid thing for Huntington to have said (and not only because the "scholarship" students I knew in college were often the hardest working and most talented ones, the ones who didn't need their parents to pay their way, but I digress). The goal of a baseball team should not be to mete out rewards and punishments for its players based on how they do; it should be to win games. It's true that the former often goes hand in hand with the latter, but not always. When deciding who gets major league playing time, there shouldn't be moral considerations about the perceived quality of someone's previous play; instead, it should be one factor that should be weighed along with others. When I hear most fans dismissively use the word "scholarship," I feel like what they really want is some sort of vigilante justice based on how the fans feel someone is playing. Justice has little to do with it.

The fact is that top prospects, like Andrew McCutchen or Pedro Alvarez, should get scholarships, while journeymen should have to do more to prove themselves. If Alvarez comes up after tearing it up for three months at Indianapolis next year, he should play every day in the big leagues, even if he starts 5-for-50. If Ronny Cedeno gets hurt and Argenis Diaz comes up and hits 12-for-30 in his absence, the Pirates should probably send Diaz back to Indianapolis once Cedeno is healthy.

Yesterday in the comments, someone mentioned the concept of a "scholarship" in reference to the possibility that Jeff Clement could end up starting next year. Now, one can certainly express the hope that Clement will not start next year, but invoking the "scholarship" concept attempts to find a very uncomplicated kind of justice in what is actually a very complicated situation. The Pirates will have two outfield positions set with McCutchen and Lastings Milledge, while Jones has shown he should get more playing time in either the other outfield position or at first.

That leaves either an outfield spot or first base unaccounted for. There is, of course, a chance that the Pirates could seek a free agent like Rick Ankiel, but many free agents do not want to play for the Bucs, and the Pirates shouldn't want to give a free agent so much money or so many years that he interferes with the team's long term plans. If they can't find a suitable free agent, and I'd actually bet against them finding one, that leaves them looking for a trade or an internal option. Alvarez or Jose Tabata could be possibilities, but both could probably use at least a couple more months in the minors--the Alex Gordon Problem applies in Alvarez's case, and Tabata hasn't really dominated in the high minors yet.

That leaves guys like Brandon Moss, Pearce and Clement, and of that bunch, why not Clement? Moss is a fourth outfielder, and while Pearce might be a reasonable bench option, he's had an up-and-down career since 2007 and could probably be considered as much of a "scholarship" case as Clement is. (So could Moss, actually.) Clement has a first-round pedigree and a reasonably good minor-league track record. He tailed off badly after a hot start at Indianapolis this year, but that may have had something to do with the oblique strain that finally shelved him. It's not at all unreasonable to think he's a better, higher-upside choice than either Moss or Pearce. Alternately, the Bucs could platoon the lefty Clement with the righty Pearce.

Choosing Clement need not have anything to do with "scholarships." That's irrelevant. It has to do with sorting through a number of possibilities, all with pros and cons, and finding the best one for the present and future of the organization. Sometimes that means playing the guy who played best last month, or for some short span in the majors last year, or for some longer span in the minors this year. Sometimes it doesn't. Anyway, I usually get the sense that when someone is using the word "scholarship," it usually just means "The Pirates are playing a guy I don't like." Instead of using that word, make an argument. There's no doubt that the Bucs sometimes make personnel decisions I don't agree with, but that doesn't mean there's some moral dimension to it, and it simply doesn't follow that the Pirates should always use the guy who played best in whatever arbitrary timeframe or context you care to pick. So please, no more "scholarship." Let's just leave that word alone.

By the way, this post is dedicated to Neil Walker, who earlier this year complained that players like him and the great Brian Bixler were getting the shaft while players acquired by Neal Huntington coasted through. Walker didn't use the word "scholarship," but that's the concept he was invoking.

Well, it's extremely early, and of course it's still possible that Walker turns a corner, but he has begun his major league career 4-for-26. And, with his inning-ending double play with two men on in the bottom of the tenth, he's as responsible as anyone or the loss tonight. Cheers to you, Neil! May your teammates in Indianapolis next year enjoy your grousing as much as I have.

Pirates Swept by Reds

Charlie — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 21:13:50 -0000

by Tom Uhlman - AP

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This was an ugly series. The Pirates managed to lose four games against Kip Wells, Justin Lehr, a guy who was fresh off the DL (Johnny Cueto) and a guy who's pitched well recently but still entered the game with a 6.04 ERA (Homer Bailey). Take yesterday's game, for example. Yes, it might have turned out differently if the Reds hadn't managed to squirt about six dozen ground balls through holes in the infield, but it's still ridiculous to lose against Lehr, who had absolutely nothing, couldn't find the zone and just generally looked like the worst pitcher the Pirates have faced all year.

There were bright spots to this series--No Relation McCutchen's good major league debut, Garrett Jones' continued mashing, Joel Hanrahan. But the fact remains that this was the Reds, who are almost as bad on paper as the Pirates are.

News Roundup: Reds Sweep Doubleheader, Ruin Daniel McCutchen's Good Debut

Charlie — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 02:29:51 -0000

More photos » by David Kohl - AP

3 months ago: Cincinnati Reds' Darnell McDonald, left, slides across home plate with the winning run after a wild pitch from Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher Jesse Chavez, covering home at right, in the bottom of ninth inning of Game 1 of a baseball doubleheader, Monday, Aug. 31, 2009, in Cincinnati. The Reds won 4-3. (AP Photo/David Kohl)

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The Associated Press: Reds beat Pirates 4-3 before empty seats
There were less than 2,000 people in attendance for the day game today. Which is too bad, and it's also too bad about the way the Pirates lost it, because Dan McCutchen was actually pretty good, grabbing a quality start and five strikeouts while only walking two batters. Joel Hanrahan struck out four batters, too.

Except for a big homer by Andrew McCutchen, and some shut-down relief from Denny Bautista, the second game of the doubleheader today was downright forgettable, unless you're Jesse Chavez. (Who, uh, also won't be forgetting the first game.) So let's move on. But before we do, I want to good-naturedly suggest that we nickname Dan McCutchen "No Relation."

Moore will be extended through 2014 - Royals Review
This post from Royals Review about the ludicrous four-year extension Kansas City GM Dayton Moore just received reminds me of some of the unfortunate apologies for Dave Littlefield people stopped posting on the internet in, oh, about 2005.

Moore looked like a good GM in his first year or so when he was mostly just cleaning up the previous management's trash, but the decisions he's made at the big-league level since then have been terrible by the standards of today's GMs, who tend not to be idiots. When a GM sets money on fire the way Moore has with Jose Guillen, Yuniesky Betancourt, Mike Jacobs, Kyle Farnsworth, Willie Bloomquist and others the way Moore has, he deserves to be fired. When someone who spends as much on veteran players as Moore did this offseason and still finishes the season 30 games below .500, he deserves to be fired. And Royals fans who settle for 28th best or 30th best or whatever Moore is isn't aren't doing themselves or the team any favors.

It's true that Moore is doing a much better job than Littlefield at building through the farm system, but there's no reason to have any confidence Moore will be able to put together a good team even if he graduates a bunch of solid players from the minors.

I don't mean to pick on the blogger who posted this. It's hard to know how to respond to a tough situation. We've all been there. And the comment thread is hilarious.

Minor League Baseball: GCL Blue Jays 2, GCL Pirates 1
The Bradenton Pirates finished their season today. It was a decent season overall, I suppose. The hitters generally didn't fare that well, but most of them were very young, and outfielder Rogelios Noris and catcher Ramon Cabrera showed promise. Also, the GCL tends not to produce impressive-looking offensive performances. The Pirates' pitching, led by Trent Stevenson, Brooks Pounders, Jhonathan Ramos and Zac Fuesser, was very good, and I look forward to seeing some of these guys in full-season ball next year.

Also, 2009 bonus baby Zach Von Rosenberg made his pro debut today. He faced six batters, struck out two, got groundouts from three, and got one to pop up to the catcher. Not bad at all.

Analysis of a Fire Sale: The Pittsburgh Pirates, Pt. 3

SFiercex4 — Sun, 30 Aug 2009 21:51:36 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Pirates starter Charlie Morton appears to be a critical acquisition in Pittsburgh's trading spree.(AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

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(Note: All research and projections were done two and a half weeks ago, but this article was simply not written out then due to other commitments. Any changes due to more recent results can be blamed on my laziness. Adjust accordingly if you'd like.)

Parts 1 and 2 (shown here and here) detailed the players that left the Pittsburgh Pirates this year in trades and how much surplus value they may have provided over the life of their remaining contracts. The Pirates gave up ten players, some of real worth due to their contract status, some not as much due to the remaining length and price of their deals. Using the projections and Sky Kalkman's Trade Value Calculator, I came up with a surplus value of $86.8M.

(Addendum: An emailer and blogger for the Pirates vehemently denies that the Pirates would have non-tendered Tom Gorzelanny. I'm unsure about this, especially given my prediction of another player that the Pirates received of similar value, but if you feel the Pirates would have tendered Gorzelanny after a season of rookie contract team control, add an additional $7M to that $86.8M, calculated as either a 160 inning starter or a 65 inning reliever.

However, the haul the Pirates got in return is almost entirely under team control for the next half decade, with the exception of a few players. Can these players provide the value the Pirates need to offset that large value? We'll find out after the jump.

The Pirates received 18 players in return for the ten they dealt away. Of those 18, I considered 13 of them to be valued as prospects based on Victor Wang's research on the value of prospects. Of those 13 players, three of them I deemed organizational fillers that added no value to the team above replacement. This is more of a function of me unable to utilize either a projection system or Wang's research, which is based on both Baseball America's Top 100 rankings and John Sickel's prospect grades. The remaining five players were given projections based on how major league performance and major league equivalents for minor league performance. Major league equivalents were provided by Minor League Splits. Let's get started.

The Prospects

Thirteen players were labeled prospects for the purposes of this evaluation. Of the thirteen, three players were most discussed in terms of their potential: former Atlanta Braves prospects OF Gorkys Hernandez and LHP Jeff Locke, and former San Francisco Giants prospect RHP Tim Alderson. Two of those players, Hernandez and Alderson, were in Baseball America's Top 100 list and thus derived the most value when using Victor Wang's valuation system. Of the players who were valued using John Sickel's grades, only Locke was graded at a B or higher. The remaining players were graded at C or deemed organizational fillers and thus not valued.

Here's the table in descending value:

So not considering any value from the players that have played in the majors, we can estimate $47.3M in value in the prospects acquired alone. Most of that value is tied to Alderson and Hernandez, and if you don't value those guys highly enough, you can knock them down a peg or so to the next area of value. But these are based on the preseason rankings by BA and Sickels' preseason grades.

This means the remaining five players acquired need to make up an expected surplus value of $39.5M, or around $40M, to make up for the value traded away.

Ronny Cedeno

Of the five players mentioned, Ronny Cedeno holds the least future value for the Pirates. He is regarded as a all-glove, no-hit shortstop, but over his career he hasn't had much of a glove at short either. When running a weighted projection and regressing his UZR/150 to the mean, I got a UZR/150 of -0.8 runs at shortstop. This isn't likely to be enough to make up for his terrible bat. Given that the Pirates don't have anyone coming up to play shortstop for them soon, you can expect to see Cedeno at least for one season with the Pirates. Here's what I got for Cedeno's value.

The calculator presumes some sort of positive value of production when calculating the arbitration salary, but in this case Cedeno is shown to be just about replacement level. Just for ease, I gave Cedeno $1M, which would be a $1.1M loss to the Pirates. Combined with the value Cedeno's provided so far this season, and you actually get a small positive gain from Cedeno's services.

Charlie Morton

Charlie Morton has started for the Pirates since being traded from Atlanta in the Nate McLouth deal. So far this year, in part due to his ability to hold off the home run, Morton has shown to be an average starter with 4.34 FIP. In Morton's previous stint in the big leagues with Atlanta, however, he was hammered, posting a 5.14 FIP and walking almost as many as he struck out. Using the ZiPS end of season projection and the appropriate weighting and regression, here's the sort of production we might expect from Morton.

With the regression, you get a projected 4.68 FIP for Morton, good for 1.5 WAR in 160 innings. Giving him a little bit more WAR in his subsequent years to show a modicum of growth, Morton's average production over his rookie contract and arbitration years would be worth $21.2M to the Pirates. Note that this takes into account that Morton would qualify as a "Super Two" for arbitration.

This is production similar to that of a player the Pirates traded away, LHP Tom Gorzelanny. While the differences between lefties and righties in terms of scarcity are significant, their age and projection of their production is somewhat similar. If we treat Morton as a "Super Two" player eligible for arbitration in his second year with the Pirates, both him and Gorzelanny would be under team control for the same number of years. A similar projection for Gorzelanny leaves him worth about $7M short of Morton's projection.

Jeff Clement

Jeff Clement was a former first-round draft pick out of USC and was supposed to be the catcher of the future in Seattle. However, despite solid seasons in the minors prior to 2008, Clement's only extended look in the majors ended with a .289 wOBA in 224 PA. There are also issues with Clement's defense at catcher and the need for a potential move to first base.

Having been traded to the Pirates will not help Clement's chances at playing time. The team's current catcher, Ryan Doumit, is signed on for two seasons after this one, and the Pirates system also includes Jason Jaramillo, who started the majority of the games this season with Doumit out with injury, and 2009 first round pick Tony Sanchez. At first base, there is the potential of highly touted prospect Pedro Alvarez being moved across the diamond to first base due to defensive issues at third. Thus, it appears Clement, who was immediately optioned to Triple-A Indianapolis when acquired by the Pirates, may be blocked at the only positions he can play.

Using minor league equivalents for Clement's Triple-A seasons and adding on his major league time, then using the typical projection and regression to the mean for his time in the majors, we get a projected .324 wOBA. I gave Clement's 100 games and 400 PA split between catcher and first base; he gets 40 games at catcher as the primary backup to Doumit and considering Doumit's prior injury history, and 60 games at first base considering the multitude of other players that could potentially play first for the Pirates. For defense, there isn't much of a track record of Clement's defense at first base, so I gave him an average score at the position. Giving him the appropriate adjustments, it yields this sort of production from the calculator.

Even this sort of low production in limited playing time by Clement can yield close to $20M in surplus value because of his pre-arbitration years. This doesn't give a whole lot of variation to Clement's production either, and even at age 26, there's still an opportunity for him to shape up into an average major league player. In addition, if his defense at catcher improves and becomes acceptable at the major league level, he may supplant the oft-injured Doumit if there aren't better options, and more playing time at catcher combined with average defense may be the best way for Clement to provide value.

Lastings Milledge

Lastings Milledge is another former highly-touted prospect, originally from the Mets organization. Milledge was dealt last year to the Washington Nationals, where he spent the year playing center field and showing that he wasn't a center fielder. However, he started this season in center field for the Nationals, but spent only seven games with the big league club before being sent down to the minors, where he remained until being traded in that controversial deal for Nyjer Morgan. The Pirates eventually brought him up to the majors and began starting him in left field.

Milledge's hitting has never met the expectations of the organization's he's been a part of. Using ZiPS projections and major league equivalents for his Triple-A seasons for the weighted projection and regression to the mean, I got an expected wOBA of .320, not far off from his career .317 wOBA in 1201 plate appearances. Given that the Pirates already have a center fielder of the future in Andrew McCutchen, Milledge's playing time would primarily be in the corners, where I have him projected as a -3 defender per 150 defensive games. Putting this all together in 137 games and giving him some extra WAR for his age and you get this from the calculator.

There isn't a whole lot to go with here. Pushing him up to 0.6 WAR still gives him a surplus value below $10M. Much of the argument for the positives of the Nyjer Morgan trade lied in the potential of Lastings Milledge. While he does still have room to grow, the Pirates would have to receive at least a league average player in order to get close to the value in return from Morgan.

Joel Hanrahan

Joel Hanrahan had proven so far to be a decent reliever for the Nationals despite a sky-high ERA this season. Coming off of the deal, most analysts felt Hanrahan was an excellent pickup as a reliever for the Pirates as a throw-in in the Milledge-Morgan trade, as in most defense-independent pitching stats Hanrahan was a clear favorite over the player the Pirates traded away, Sean Burnett. Hanrahan is also under team control for a few more seasons. Projecting and regressing his FIP for next season yields a solid 4.08 FIP, right in line with his ZiPS expected rest-of-season total. Projecting this sort of production over 70 innings for the next few years and you get this from the calculator.

As far as relievers go, that is pretty good value for Hanrahan, especially given that Burnett, the guy they replaced with Hanrahan, was closer to replacement level. If Hanrahan is good enough or if the Pirates recognize his ability, he could get a shot at closing for the team, which would give him higher leverage situations and improve his WAR values as well.

Here's the total for just those players.

The Grand Finale

The grand total for the Pirates acquired players, including both the prospects and the five players projected values, comes out to $91.1M, for a net surplus (based on my expectations) of $4.3M of value. There are perhaps a few assumptions here that are of question, in particular A) the lack of growth in terms of production given their age by the acquired players for whom I did projections, and B) the non-tendering of a few players that the Pirates had, particularly Tom Gorzelanny, who was the youngest of the players dealt away, and C) the somewhat high evaluation of Nyjer Morgan. I believe that those are of the magnitude where, taken as a whole, they are likely to even out, so I am of the opinion that this analysis more or less holds.

The Pirates gained an extremely large amount of service time tied up in young players who are either prospects or haven't had a lot of major league service. By my count, the Pirates brought back in 101 years of service time spread out between 18 players. However, much of that service time is unknown, and there is certainly no guarantee that all or even half of those players will see that sort of time on the Pirates big league club.

The key to this set of trades lies in the fulfillment of a number of prospects. The three players at the top of the list of prospects, Tim Alderson, Gorkys Hernandez, and Jeff Locke, could each become assets to the big league club beyond what those values have them at. As you saw in the case of Charlie Morton, a 1.5 WAR pitcher is a guy who puts up around a 4.7 FIP, decently below average, and yet still valuable to the club, according to the often used method of valuation of WAR. If Alderson and Locke can become just below average pitchers, they'll hold plenty of value for a team that will be paying them well below market value, and it will push the value of the deals even further towards the side of the Pirates.

Essentially, the Pirates dealt known commodities for plenty of lottery tickets of varying chances of success, a well-known strategy of such . None of the players they acquired were sure positive commodities, but most of them had potential, including the players who had accrued a good deal of major league time. The Pirates took a chance on players like Milledge and Clement, players who were still young but no longer considered "prospects," on the off chance that they realize the potential once seen in them. If either player becomes league average and receives adequate playing time, the Pirates will have received more than adequate return on their tickets.

The Value of Change

Is there also something to be said about the fact that change was made in the first place? GM Neal Huntington received the ire of a lot of fans last season when he dealt Xavier Nady, but so far the returns have been promising. The Pirates organization for years had been running in circles, unwilling to move into a clear rebuilding campaign and instead filling the major league roster with middling veterans such as the likes of Joe Randa, Matt Morris, and Jeremy Burnitz, while neglecting to focus on the farm system. Huntington has changed the way the Pirates work with their farm system, apparently retooling the draft strategy from the days of Dave Littlefield, and in this set of trades he has sought to rebuild a thin farm with desperately needed quantity.

Huntington has attacked this problem by trading players who likely had no future in a winning PIttsburgh team. While we can never be sure that Nate McLouth, Nyjer Morgan, or Freddy Sanchez would not have produced a playoff berth for Pittsburgh, the previous core had had its chance for almost three years without results. While there may not be specific monetary value in the way the Pirates front office has attacked rebuilding the team, there is something be said for an organization that realizes its current iteration does not have much chance for success. Apparently, Huntington saw this and decided to rebuild, which was likely the correct move. The rewards he reaps from the previous core will mostly be seen in three to five years, and maybe then we can have a better evaluation of whether the entire process was a success.

Poll

Did the Pirates come out on top in their trades as a whole?

Yes

152 votes

No

26 votes

Defering until 2012

87 votes

265 votes | Poll has closed

Pirates' ship decimated by trades

Poseidon's Fist — Tue, 11 Aug 2009 19:54:55 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

There's nothing to do but bite the...railing...and push through the long rebuilding process in Pittsburgh, unless you're lucky enough to be considered old enough to play for a different team.

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Just who are the Pirates anymore? In barely the last year, they have traded away OFs Jason Bay, Xavier Nady, Nate McLouth, Nyjer Morgan, Eric Hinske, C Ronny Paulino, SS Jack Wilson, 2B Freddy Sanchez, 1B Adam LaRoche, 3B Jose Bautista and Ps Ian Snell, Tom Gorzelanny, Damaso Marte, Sean Burnett and John Grabow.

Wow. It certainly needed to happen, as Pittsburgh continued to parade a team out that would never be good enough to contend in the NL Central in September. It may be good for the future, but it's devastating for the present, fracturing team chemistry and faith. The trade of Nate McLouth angered some players, who actually lit a candle to the former Pirate in his locker after the trade. Said third baseman Andy LaRoche, who saw his brother traded away to Boston earlier this season:

"It's been ... almost like a bad dream. It seemed like every other day, we're trading one of the guys we're close with, one of our team leaders." Rob Biertempfel, Tribune-Review

Pittsburgh won the first two games after the final trade, of Gorzelanny and Grabow, against the Nationals. Since then, however, they have dropped eight straight, being outscored 52-26. In losing 13 of 15, the Pirates have fallen to last in the NL Central, just 5.5 games ahead of the Nationals for the worst record in the league. Curiously though, their run differential is closest to the contending Seattle Mariners than any other team.

Naturally, trading away their core has stripped John Russell of fielding a competitive team. After posting winning months in April and June, Pittsburgh went 8-17 in July, only beaten in futility by their 1-8 August thus far. Adding in that the Pirates have a pitiful 17-39 road record, losing this series would be the greatest embarrassment of the season thus far.

If you are feeling sentimental towards the beginning stages of GenR, visit our friends at Bucs Dugout .

Pittsburgh Pirates (45-66, L8, 6th, 16.5 GB)

Tuesday-Thursday: 3-game series at Coors Field

The Bats: D

Looking at season stats are obviously useless. Only the third baseman and center-fielder remain as carry-overs in the lineup since the last time we faced the Pirates six weeks ago.

LINEUP	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Andrew McCutchen - CF	.292	7	32	.352	.486	.366
Lastings Milledge - LF	.293	0	5	.310	.341	.271
Garrett Jones - RF	.291	12	19	.354	.662	.422
Ryan Doumit - C	.234	6	32	.250	.446	.282
Delwyn Young - 2B	.301	5	30	.357	.411	.344
Steve Pearce - 1B	.230	2	6	.338	.443	.343
Andy LaRoche - 3B	.257	5	41	.329	.376	.314
Ronny Cedeno - SS	.308	2	7	.325	.462	.348

Milledge came in the Nyjer Morgan deal, Cedeno came in the Jack Wilson/Ian Snell trade, while Pearce and Jones were internal callups to fill voids left from other trades. Young was promoted to be the everyday 2B when Freddy Sanchez was dealt and projected everyday catcher Ryan Doumit returned from the DL July 10.

You can judge by wOBA if you wish, but there are sample size issues all over the place. Garrett Jones is no Prince Fielder and Ryan Doumit is no Brian Schneider. The lineup is riddled with unpolished talent that could erupt at Coors Field - or completely buckle against good pitching. For more on Jones, who has 12 HR in 39 hits, check out this feature article from Fangraphs. McCutchen, Jones and Doumit are legitimate threats.

Jason Jaramillo (.250, 3, 19) is Doumit's backup backstop, while the reserve infielders are Luis Cruz (3-for-10) and Ramon Vazquez (.254, 1, 13). Brandon Moss (.22, 5, 48) and Jeff Salazar (1-for-24) are John Russell's bench outfielders. Of the five on the bench, only Luis Cruz is a right-handed battter.

Hop after the jump for the scouting report on the arms, the D, the pitching matchups and the hot/cold players.

The Arms: D+

We will see Kevin Hart (obtained from Chicago in the Grabow/Gorzelanny deal), Princeton grad Ross Ohlendorf, and lefty Paul Maholm. All three are serviceable starting pitchers, but none should strike the fear in a lineup that scored 22 runs in the last two days against a team ranked 3rd in ERA in MLB coming in. The staff ERA sits at 4.42, 20th in the league, but that has slowly trended downward as the season has progressed.

Trading away John Grabow robbed John Russell of the only left-hander he has in his bullpen. Closer Matt Capps has a terrible Lidge-like statline.

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Matt Capps	2-7	5.97	1.75	35	15

Joel Hanrahan is another failed closer in the bullpen. The rest of the pen is made up of Jeff Karstens, Chris Bootcheck, Jose Ascanio, Jesse Chavez, and Evan Meek. Karstens, Capps and Bootcheck are rated as below average relievers by Statcorner this year, though the other four have been above average in Pittsburgh.

The D: C

SS Ronny Cedeno and Andrew McCutchen are very good fielders, though the corner outfielders have been liabilities, especially Garrett Jones, who gives Brad Hawpe the rare opportunity to be the right fielder with the greatest range in the series. Delwyn Young is below average defensively at second base, though Steve Pearce and Andy LaRoche are fairly solid fielders. In the last series, I rated this team as having A defense. However, notable downgrades at second, right and left have dropped them significantly.

Probable Pitchers:

Tonight, 7:10 pm MDT

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Ross Ohlendorf	9-8	4.29	1.32	70	41

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Jhoulys Chacin	0-0	1.80	1.00	9	3

This is the best pitching matchup for the Pirates. Ohlendorf is having his best year, hasn't allowed more than two runs in his last four starts, and has managed a winning record despite being a Pirates pitcher. Hawpe and Tulowitzki beat him up at Coors on June 19. Meanwhile, Chacin will be making his MLB debut, and that 70-75 pitch count could be problematic for a guy who has walked three guys in five innings. Vegas isn't biting though, making the Rockies -190 moneyline favorites. Favors: ROCKIES slightly

Wednesday, August 12, 6:40 pm MDT

W-L ERA WHIP K BB

2009 - Kevin Hart 3-1 2.94 1.51 18 19

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Kevin Hart	3-1	2.94	1.51	18	19

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Ubaldo Jimenez	9-9	3.65	1.26	134	59

W-L ERA WHIP K BB

2009 - Ubaldo Jimenez 9-9 3.65 1.26 134 59

Hart came from Chicago in the Gorzelanny/Grabow trade. He's not the Kevin Hart that's wearing green at 3:11 of this clip, so he's not even the most famous guy with his name. He allowed three runs in six innings against Arizona at PNC Park in his lone Pirate start. He has a history of control problems at the major league level, as noted by Marc Hulet, and despite a sparkly ERA, his FIP is quite bad (5.93) as you might expect with that high WHIP and horrid K/BB ratio. The righty throws a fastball around 91 but mixes in an 86mph cutter almost a quarter of the time. He also has a mid-80's change and a high 70's curve. Jimenez is just a stud. He has strung together six straight quality starts, going 3-1 in the process. Favors: ROCKIES very strongly

Thursday, August 13, 1:10 MDT

W-L ERA WHIP K BB

2009 - Paul Maholm 6-6 4.76 1.44 88 44

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Paul Maholm	6-6	4.76	1.44	88	44

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Jason Marquis	12-8	3.65	1.28	72	48

We miss All-Star Zach Duke again, but this other lefty has talent too. Maholm has a better tRa and stymied the Rockies for seven scoreless innings in May. Of course, we trashed him at Coors in June. His slider is his only above average pitch this season and he's allowed at least four rusn in four straight starts. Marquis' tRA is actually .07 higher than Maholm this season, but we know who has been the better pitcher. The Rockies' winnar had his 6-game quality start streak snapped Saturday in the Rockies only loss of the series, mostly due to atypical walks. He'll try for the fourth time for that elusive 13th win. Favors: ROCKIES moderately

My take

There is no excuse for losing this series. We really ought to sweep, though I'm never confident in projecting a sweep when one good start from an opposing pitcher (which these three are capable) can derail that declaration. The Rockies are a better team overall at every single position except perhaps center field, though the Rockies boast a couple hot and talented "ballcatchers" there as well. Let's not get too down on this team if they drop one game, but this series absolutely must be won, and sweeping it would make whatever result of that Giants/Dodgers series sweet.

It's not Andrew McCutchen's fault Pittsburgh hasn't won in August. He hit 3 HR in their sole August win on th 1st and has 4 dingers this month, including a .364 average and a 1.220 OPS. Ronny Cedeno is hitting .314 with a surprising 2 HR thus far in August as well. Ross Ohlendorf has allowed 2 ER or less in four straight starts, and Joel Hanrahan has a 3.29 ERA with Pittsburgh.

Ryan Doumit has continued his disappointing season wby hitting just .194 with two XBH in August. Brandon Moss is just 3 for his last 19. Garrett Jones is 8 for his last 34, but half of those hists are XBH. Jesse Chavez has been scored upon in 3 of 4 outings and 5 of 8. Jeff Karstens has yielded 10 runs in his last 5 reliefappearances.

Tyler Yates (elbow - 5/16) and Donald Veal (fingers - 8/4) are on the 15-day, while Phil Dumatrait (shoulder - 3/27) and Craig Hansen (trapezius - 4/25) are on the 60-day.

Poll

How will you be feeling Thursday night?

Confident and accomplished. Sweeping the Pirates isn't the greatest accomplishment, especially these Pirates, but a sweep is a sweep.

86 votes

A little disappointed but accepting. You can't sweep every series against a bad team. Series wins are never bad.

66 votes

Rational, borderline masochistic: Losing a home series to the Pirates is embarrassing, but then you remember the Giants lost 2 of 3 at home to the Reds and are still contenders.

4 votes

Borderline homicidal: how could the Rockies piss away their contention by pissing away a series at home vs PITTSBURGH?!

6 votes

162 votes | Poll has closed

Atlanta Braves - Washington Nationals: Series Preview

gondeee — Tue, 11 Aug 2009 12:54:37 -0000

More photos » by Lenny Ignelzi - AP

San Diego State pitcher Stephen Strasburg

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The Washington Nationals are coming to town to face our Atlanta Braves for a 2-game series -- we had a 2-game series with Philly in April; I wonder why they scheduled two 2-game series this year, that's weird. Anyway, we get to face the Nats at the hottest possible time -- they are on an 8-game winning streak. I figured it was time to check in with a Nats expert, and I summoned Ed Chigliak of the Nats blog Federal Baseball. Below are my questions to him about the Nationals, and his questions to me can be found here.

Q: How does a team like the Nationals and their fans handle an 8-game winning streak? You're so used to the opposite, does anyone really know what to say when they're winning? Tell us how the Nats have been doing it for 8 straight.

A: Honestly, writing about wins was really awkward when the Nationals started picking it up recently. I had gotten so used to chronicling losses that it was tough to turn it around and focus on the positives when they were successful. The Nationals fans that I know want the team to be good, and we watch every day expecting the team to do what they've done recently because a decent percentage of us see the team moving in the right direction in terms of rebuilding the organization top to bottom following a nearly decade-long dismantling at the end of the Montreal years. What we've seen on the current 8-game win-streak is a team that leads the league in errors, with 99 in 112 games, committing just 1 error over the last 6 games, while an offense with the second-best team batting average and second-highest team OBP in the NL keeps getting people on and driving in runs. Combine that with average starts and excellent bullpen work and they're 14-11 since Jim Riggleman replaced Manny Acta and 8-0 in the last eight...(so what if it's against the Pirates, Marlins and D-Backs)...

Q: Will the Nationals sign Stephen Strasburg?

A: In the Poll I have running at Federal Baseball.com, where people are asked simply Yes or No will the Nationals sign Strasburg?, after 255 votes it's 155 to 100 in favor of the two sides reaching a deal. The Nationals had to have done their homework and come to the conclusion that they could sign Strasburg before they drafted him, otherwise it's a ridiculous decision to take him. I believe Strasburg's going to get a record contract, and I'm hoping that when DC went about courting Mark Teixeira this winter, they made enough of an impression on Teixeira and Strasburg's agent/advisor Scott Boras that he recommends DC as a destination. From the start I've said it's going to cost $20M+ and I'm sticking to that.

Q: Looking back on this season so far, how has the Adam Dunn signing affected this team? Was that a good move or a bad move?

A: I thought the Dunn signing was a horrible move at first, mainly because I didn't see why you would pay him the money (2-years/$20M) that they did to hit his 40/100 on a 100-loss team, but having watched his improvement at the plate and in the field, I have to admit Dunn's won me over. (The K's though, all 126 of them are tough to take.) I watched him play first base in the WBC and could not believe they intended to trade Nick Johnson and insert Dunn at first, but now it looks like his average/decent play could make him a legitimate National League player for a few years longer than people thought. That's not to say he's great there, he misses grounders he should get to, and he's reached into the basepath once or twice, but he's better than I imagined in just about every way...except the K's...and his outfield defense...he's just as bad as I imagined in those ways...

Q: Why didn't the Nats make any big trades at the trade deadline? Are you pleased or pissed about that?

A: They waited too long, they weren't getting anything of value offered in return, and in the end the Nationals decided they didn't want to part with their most valuable commodities, Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham, who have both rewarded DC's faith this season. The Nationals did of course trade Nick Johnson to Florida for a pitcher who was at least highly-regarded, former 1st Round pick Aaron Thompson, who was on the 3 of the last 4 lists of the Marlins' top prospects according to Baseball America. The big trade the Nationals did make, which is widely regarded as a fleecing of the Pirates right now, dependent upon what Lastings Milledge becomes, was to trade Milledge and the struggling Joel Hanrahan to Pittsburgh for Nyjer Morgan and Sean Burnett. Morgan's been phenomenal since moving to DC and he's given the Nationals the center fielder they've been looking for since Endy Chavez didn't pan out...while Burnett's been solely a positive addition to the bullpen Mike Rizzo had to rescue from Jim Bowden's poor judgement. I'm pleased with what Mike Rizzo's done, I just wish they'd give him the GM job on a permanent basis.

Q: Is Ryan Zimmerman the best all-around third baseman in baseball? Why or why not?

A: How do you decide if Ryan Zimmerman's better than David Wright, or Chipper Jones, who, in his prime, I'd take over just about anyone. Zimmerman's 3rd in the Majors in hits amongst 3rd baseman, tied for second in the Majors in HR's by third baseman, has the third-highest RBI total, and he's got the third-highest batting average and third-highest OPS in the National League, and he's behind Mark Reynolds of the D-Backs and Pablo Sandoval of the Giants in most of those stats, neither of whom are in Zimmerman's league defensively. (Though Zim's 13 '09 errors have been worrisome at times). Right now he's projecting at about 35 doubles, 30 HR's and 100 RBI's, he's hitting over .300, (.309 as of Monday), and he's putting up the best on base and slugging numbers of his career, there aren't too many people I'd take over Zimmerman if I needed a third baseman right now.

Many thanks to Ed for his great answers to my questions.