SB Nation - Mike Jacobs

Jason Bay Applesauce - Thole Flees Venezuela, Rule 5 Is A Bust, Halladay To The Phillies?

James Kannengieser — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 13:30:12 -0000

The first Winter Meetings of the Twitter era is now complete - thank goodness.

Meet the Mets

The big news of the day, as first reported by Mike Francesa, was the Mets' offer to Jason Bay in the neighborhood of four years, $65 million. If he accepted it would probably be an overpay but not a terrible contract for a team with the Mets' resources. Anything much higher than the initial offer would be bad news. Matt Holliday is obviously preferable but it would be nice to have a slugging corner outfielder for a change. The nightmare scenario would be paying Bay $16-17 million per season, then watching Holliday sign for $18-19 million. I wonder if people would continue saying the Alex Cora and Henry Blanco signings wouldn't hinder the Mets this offseason?

One bizarre aspect of the Bay offer is the revelation that the Mets think Bay is a better fielder than Holliday. That's almost certainly not true. Bay probably isn't as bad as UZR suggests the last couple seasons but I don't think an argument can be made that he's anything better than below average.

Mets Fever goes into great detail extolling the intangible virtues of Bengie Molina and endorses a two year, $12 million contract. This topic has been beaten into the ground but I say again: Bengie Molina is not worth anything more than a one year deal for very small money. Yes, he caught the 2002 World Champion Angels. That was a long time ago. I think Tim Lincecum would have won the last two Cy Youngs without Bengie. Three measures of catcher defense (Driveline Mechanics, Sean Smith, Baseball Prospectus) all rated Molina as below average in 2009. He's just not very good at anything except swinging at every pitch within a ten foot radius of home plate.

Unsurprisingly, the Mets' Rule 5 Draft activity left many people scratching their heads. Additionally, in a decent move, they signed minor league pitcher Clint Everts.

Joe Janish at Mets Today offers up a recap of the Winter Meetings' last day.

Josh Thole is leaving his Venezuela Winter League team after dominating over the last several weeks. He hopes to compete for a spot on the Opening Day Roster.

Rivers McCown fires up the Manny Ramirez what-if machine.

Around the NL East

Talking Chop reviews the Braves Winter Meetings activity.

FishStripes looks at the Marlins Rule 5 pick.

The Fightins' notes a weird compliment of Placido Polanco by Jim Leyland.

Ken Rosenthal says the Phillies and Angels are the leaders in the Roy Halladay sweepstakes.

Around MLB

The Royals released Mike Jacobs just before the Rule 5 Draft.

The Red Sox agreed to send Mike Lowell to the Rangers, with the Red Sox picking up some of his salary.

MLBTradeRumors provides a massive recap of the Winter Meetings.

Off topic - Jonah Keri writes a thoughtful post about pickup basketball.

Off topic 2 - that bastion of great journalism, the Daily News, produces another nonsensical sports column.

Who Was Your Least Favorite Royal of 2009?

royalsreview — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 04:37:10 -0000

More photos » by Lori Shepler - AP

7 months ago: Kansas City Royals right fielder Jose Guillen can't catch the ball as Los Angeles Angels second baseman Howie Kendrick (47) hits an inside-the-park home run during the sixth inning of a baseball game in Anaheim, Calif., Friday, May 8, 2009. (AP Photo/Lori Shepler)

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Despite Zack Greinke's greatness, nobody really liked the 2009 Royals. Dayton made a number of bizarre signings during the off-season, then responded with even stranger ones in-season.

So who was your least favorite Royal of 2009?

The Nominees:

Kyle Farnsworth: A brilliant symbol of both Dayton Moore and Trey Hillman's weaknesses. Signed to a 2 year/$9 million dollar contract in the off-season that everyone hated. Was inexplicably named the setup-man/8th inning guy on Opening Day Eve by Hillman. Everyone thought this was insane. Farnsy gave up game-losing bomb the next day. Hey continued to fail until he was demoted, then he went on a long scoreless innings streak. Farnsworth ended up posting his lowest HR/9 numbers in ages, and still was below average.

Mike Jacobs: Jacobs didn't replicate his career year, another stroke of terrible luck to befall Dayton Moore. Gloriously managed a sub-.300 OBP. Could not handle the easiest position on the field. Frequently swung hard. Chewed gigantic amounts of tobacco while at the plate.

Jose Guillen: Ended the debate about his suckitude by achieving near perfect negative value. Hit .242/.314/.367 with absolutely horrific defense. Showed tremendous ability to turn fly ball outs into home runs for the other team. Has potential to unknowingly play a key role in the next game-fixing scandal. Hated by half the teams in the game. Contract is among worst in professional sports. Bonus status as the captain of Dayton's Awful Ex-Mariners Team.

Josh Anderson: Acquired by Dayton Moore in July for no apparent reason. Anderson had not hit before and he did not hit as a Royal, posting a .237/.268/.288. (Let's be fair, he has the ability to post a .280 OBP in full-time action.) Was a favorite late-game toy of Hillman. Does not appear to have blood.

Yuniesky Betancourt: Mysteriously picked up by Dayton Moore mid-season. Has no apparent strengths as a player. Has bizarre name. Costs much more than the minimum salary. Played key role in letting fans know that team is run by people who are ... ah, what's the point?

Willie Bloomquist: St. Willie turned in the greatest .265/.308/.355 season by a guy without a position in history. This was the Dayton Moore move that "worked" and .308 OBP, in Royalsville, is nothing to sneeze at.

Ryan Freel: Owning a .140/.275/.140 line with the Orioles & Cubs, Freel was acquired by Moore leading up to the trade deadline. Absolutely tore the cover off the ball as a Royal (.244/.306/.289) and told many fantastic stories about how he avoided the Vietnam War.

Jamey Wright: Could not sustain 0.00 ERA through first five minutes as a Royal, in more bad luck. Although quickly earning trusted status in Hillman's bullpen, posted a 4.90 ERA in next 57 games. Appeared in tie games constantly (13). Actually, he just appeared constantly.

Tony Pena Jr: Took epic failure of 2008 to a new level in 2009, posting an incredible .098/.132/.118 line. Played crucial role in delivering the Yuni-Bomb to Kansas City. Amazing shift to a pitching career, a move straight out of a message board if there ever was one, hurts his hate-ability however.

Sidney Ponson: Provided Royals with valuable depth in 2009: you can never have enough bad pitchers. Poison pill contract and fate led to him starting the 2009 Home Opener, the opening of the newly renovated K. Against the Yankees. Surprised fans with better than expected 7.36 ERA.

Horacio Ramirez: Ho-Ram's ex-Brave, ex-Mariner, ex-mildly surprising 2008 move that sorta worked out status, earned him another contract and $1.8 million from Dayton Moore. Sucked from the beginning and was gone by early June. He'll be back.

Blogger Hints 101 - "Headlines to Get Your Baseball Blog Noticed and Increase Traffic"

Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 11:00:16 -0000

More photos » by Chris Carlson - AP

Are you sure this is 101 level material?

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The following is a list of topics that get people's attention and blood boiling like Jerod Morris did with his piece on steroid speculation and Raul Ibanez. Nothing will bring recognition to your blog than a story that captures people's interest. No need to worry about the validity of it. By the time someone finds out, your monthly traffic will have doubled to 20 people.

These topics are not in any way set in stone. Feel free to change names and teams to go after the headliners of the day. Remember everyone can write about the greatness Albert Pujols or Joe Mauer, it takes a real blogger to prove that Jeremy Affeldt was robbed of the MVP this last year.

Attention Making Headlines

Three Red Sox Players in Love Triangle: Look at Next Trade for the Odd Man Out
Damon goes from 12 to 17 to 24 HRs: Gotta be Steroids
Steven Stratsburg: Put Him in the HOF Right Now

Odds are only 20 to 1 that Griffey will not be injured this Year

Half of Royals Team Fight Over Who is the Worst Baseball Player

Yankees Sold to Bill Bidwell

Vivid looking to Sponsor 2011 All Star Game

Red Sox Contemplating move to Paris

Dayton Moore makes 3 Logical Moves in a Row

Nolan Ryan to Un-retire to Help Texas with Playoff Push

20 Smelliest Players in the League

Puhlos to be traded for Fuckudome and Zambrano

Linecum Steroid User Since Age 12

Randy Johnson Porn Tape Revealed

Bloomquist or Ekstein: Who Should be Greatest Player of the Decade

Milton Bradley Robbed of Roberto Clemente Award

Roy Halladay Traded

Mike Jacobs Contemplating Move to Short Stop

Wins and RBI's: The Corner Stone of any Real Statistical Analysis

Red Sox Looking to Sign Major League Shortstop

Arod Claims to Have No Centaur Painting - "They are Satyrs Stupid"

I hope you enjoyed this edition and our next installment will be on dating.

Previous Installments:

"Ways to Improve Your Mom's Basement"

2010 UZR Projections - Updated 11/15/09

Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 18:46:04 -0000

Note: I posted a spreadsheet on 11/14/09 that was not age adjusted. I would prefer for people to used the new age-adjusted spreadsheet. I posted it at 9:30 MST on 11/15/09, but will be leaving the non-age-adjusted one available. Sorry for this inconvenience. --Jeff

I created UZR projections for the 2010 season and the values are available on Google Documents Spreadsheet (original non age adjusted spreadsheet). I got 4 years worth of UZR numbers from Fangraphs. Then I did a 5-4-3-2 yearly weighting regressed to 125 games with a -0.7UZR aging factor (article where the math is explained).

I selected for the worksheet any players that played in at least 63 games at the position over the last 4 years. Some retired players are included, but I don't want to make any judgment on whether they will come back and play. Also, for players who played in less than 63 games, I added their UZR value if it was greater than 1 or less than -1. Sorry for the lack of team-wide charts, but I might add them near the beginning of the season once rosters are more finalized. Please let me know if you have any questions about the data. Here are a couple charts of the projected leaders and laggards at each position (players that played that position in 2009).

Leaders

Position	Name	Projected UZR
1B	Albert Pujols	5.5
2B	Chase Utley	11.0
3B	Evan Longoria	11.0
SS	Adam Everett	8.6
RF	Austin Kearns	8.3
CF	Franklin Gutierrez	14.8
LF	Carl Crawford	9.8

Laggards (glad my Royals keep trading for such great glove men)

Position	Name	Projected UZR
1B	Mike Jacobs	-5.6
2B	Kelly Johnson	-5.2
3B	Ryan Braun	-12.4
SS	Yuniesky Betancourt	-9.7
RF	Brad Hawpe	-19.3
CF	Jacoby Ellsbury	-9.0
LF	Adam Dunn	-13.4

Help with downloading the file after the Jump

A couple of people have asked, so the spreadsheet can be downloaded by going to "File" -> "Download as" and then selecting desired file type.

Zack Grienke watching Royals' offseason moves

Eli Greenspan — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 00:02:12 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Riedel - AP

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Royals ace Zack Grienke did not hold back in expressing his disappointment over the Royals' 2009 season. The Royals really should listen to Grienke, considering he emerged as the face of the franchise after the 2009 season.

"We'll see when the offseason comes what all we do," Greinke said. "I thought we'd be better than we've been, but we kind of proved this year that we still need more than we have to compete."

Mike Jacobs was a flop, and the injuries to Alex Gordon and Coco Crisp certainly hurt their chances. Their prize from the 2007 offseason, Gil Meche, has put up three straight double-digit losses, and finished the 2009 season with a 5.09 ERA.

The Royals need to make an investment on an impact player, because Alex Gordon is struggling to live up to potential, and Billy Butler's biggest test will come next season, when we'll see if he can continue to swing a hot bat.

If the Royals have another disappointing season, and Grienke has another Cy Young-like season, we should expect to hear whispers of a Grienke trade.

Grienke isn't eligible for free agency until after the 2012 season, but he is looking to sign an extension if the team doesn't invest more in winning. If the Royals can't lure any top players on the free agent market, then they'll likely have to shop Zack Grienke for a boatload of young prospects.

Grienke will turn 30 during the 2012 offseason, meaning his value could be at its peak coming into the 2011 season. The Royals would be smart to consider making that move so they can start the rebuilding process, because right now they are in a state of funk.

2009 SBN AL Manager Of The Year Voting Results

Jeff — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 19:02:40 -0000

Every AL blog got two ballots, each ballot voted for three managers, etc. Last year, the SBN AL voting matched up perfectly with the official results, which says something about just how much access as a voter really matters.

Rk	Manager	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Pts
1	Mike Scioscia	Los Angeles Angels	9	8	3	72
2	Ron Gardenhire	Minnesota Twins	9	5	1	61
3	Don Wakamatsu	Seattle Mariners	6	3	8	47
4	Joe Girardi	New York Yankees	2	4	2	24
5	Ron Washington	Texas Rangers	1	4	4	21
6	Terry Francona	Boston Red Sox	1	1	3	11
7	Jim Leyland	Detroit Tigers	-	2	4	10
8	Joe Maddon	Tampa Bay Rays	-	1	1	4
9	Ozzie Guillen	Chicago White Sox	-	-	1	1
10	Trey Hillman	Kansas City Royals	-	-	1	1

Lots of love for Mike Scioscia, again. Nobody really knows what effect he has on that team, but they're always good, boosting his reputation, and this year the Angels overcame a number of potentially severe injuries to post the second-best record in the American League. There was also the whole Adenhart thing, and while subtracting Adenhart from the equation didn't really make the Angels worse on paper, he did, y'know, die, he freaking died, and Scioscia got his team through the most devastating sort of adversity. Good luck finding anyone with the balls to suggest that Scioscia doesn't deserve credit for that. Scioscia and the MotY, at this point, is like Greg Maddux and the Gold Gloves - if you don't know who else to vote for, you can just assume he's worthy.

Ron Gardenhire ties Scioscia in first-place votes and finishes second overall for guiding a mediocre team to the top of a mediocre division.

Third place for Don Wakamatsu, who, yeah, you know the story. Yay us.

If memory serves, my ballot was Scioscia/Wakamatsu/Hillman. Scioscia, for helping the Angels overcome so much. Wak, for aiding in this team's complete change of direction. And Trey Hillman, because the Royals sucked, they absolutely sucked, realistically they couldn't have sucked any more than they sucked, and it can't be easier to manage a team under those conditions, and Hillman deserves credit for not killing himself, or anybody else, other than Mike Jacobs' career.

Hillman probably seems like a silly vote to many of you. He's definitely not the sort of manager who typically gets positive recognition. People in Hillman's position get fired, not honored. But I prefer to think of it as a statement vote, rather than a joke or a throwaway, because truth be told, how the hell is anyone supposed to be able to identify the league's best manager? A manager's job is to lead. I mean, he has a bunch of duties, dozens more than I can conceive of, but first and foremost, a manager has to be a good leader. And do you think it's easier to lead a good team or an awful one? The better a team is, the better the players are, and the better the players are, the less a manager has to do. The Royals weren't any good, and while that may reflect on Hillman, he had to try a hell of a lot harder than Joe Girardi had to try. Maybe Hillman was a bad manager. Maybe Gardenhire was a bad manager. We don't know. We don't know. And for that reason I don't think a team's W/L record should play such a significant role in determining the recipients of this award.

Fourth place for Joe Girardi. Amazing. Joe Girardi didn't have shit to do with the Yankees hitting 244 home runs. If I could enforce any one rule for this award, it would be that no Yankee manager would ever ever ever be more deserving of a vote than the manager of the Royals, or really than any manager at all. "The manager of the Yankees has to deal with all the pressure from the New York media," people say. The manager of the Yankees also gets to work with a roster that cost more to build than some stadiums. A manager of the Yankees cannot succeed. He can only fail.

Anyway, the take-home message here is that the Manager Of The Year award is basically pointless, since nobody has any idea how to properly evaluate a manager's performance. Aren't you glad you read all that?

Twins Hammer and Homer Royals for the Sweep: Bring On the Tigers!

Jesse — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 22:23:49 -0000

More photos » by Jim Mone - AP

Minnesota Twins' Jason Kubel doffs his helmet to the crowd after his second three-run home run of the game off Kansas City Royals' Luke Hochevar in the third inning of a baseball game Sunday, Oct. 4, 2009 in Minneapolis, while Denard Span makes fun of his beard. (AP Photo/Jim Mone)

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Twins 13, Royals 4

Do you hear that? Can you still hear it? It's the reverb from the cacophony of noise created by fans at the Dome. Why, you may ask?

Because we just forced game 163.

"BOOM!" said Jason Kubel.

"BOOM!" said Delmon Young.

"BOOM!" said Kubel, again.

"Ditto," said Delmon.

As the Detroit Tigers hung on to salvage one game from the Chicago White Sox this afternoon, the Twins were busy putting the hurt on the Kansas City Royals. It was 7-0 at the end of the third inning, with six of those runs crossing the plate stuck in Kubel's beard; a pair of three-run jacks lifted Jason to one of the best days of his career in a crucial game.

Young went deep twice of his own accord, solo shots that, "just enough" or not, certainly did the trick. His second blast put the Twins up 8-1 going into the sixth, and the game looked like it was on ice. But oh yeah, we were facing the Royals, and they have just as much fight as the Twins. Sadly for them they don't have the talent to match, but for one half of an inning, things were interesting.

Carl Pavano started on three days rest this afternoon, and he looked good. Working out of a second and third with one out situation in the second inning, he made a statement about exactly what kind of a pitcher he can be when he bears down. He worked John Buck out-in-out-in-in to induce a shallow fly-out to center that couldn't score a run, and then quickly sent down Alex Gordon as well. It was a microcosm of the game for the Royals: try as they might, it wasn't going to be good enough.

Pavano pitched around a Luis Hernandez leadoff double in the third before allowing a run in the fourth off back-to-back doubles by Alberto Callaspo and Mark Teahen. He looked strong again the fifth before falling off the table in the aforementioned sixth.

Mike Jacobs picked up a leadoff single before Callaspo tripled to bring the score to 8-2. Still Pavano battled back, striking out Teahen and inducing a Buck ground-out for out number two. Another run scored, but with the bases empty and the bullpen spare he attacked Alex Gordon.

"BOOM!", said Gordon. 8-4, hook for Pavano, enter Bobby Keppel.

Quick, ask me which pitcher I don't want to see in a game.

Keppel lasted six pitches, delivering five fastballs down the middle of the plate and a slider in the dirt. The Royals continued to jab with the left, trying to inch closer before coming in with a strong right. With runners on the corners and still just the two outs that Pavano managed, Ron Gardenhire went to Ron Mahay in order to get lefty Mitch Maier.

Mahay hit Maier.

Bases loaded, down by four and with Billy Butler at the dish, this game suddenly didn't look like such a sure shot. Gardenhire power walked to the mound for the third time that inning, stuck two fingers up Mahay's nose, pulled down, said "Get outta here you knucklehead" and then poked Mahay in the eyes. Out came Jon Rauch.

Big, surly Jon Rauch. The Jon Rauch whose tattoo changes color depending on his mood. I think it's like a mood tattoo, and today it was green. Whatever green means, it didn't bode well for the Royals. Rauch dusted in and out with a couple of breaking balls, and then attacked the outer half with two consecutive fastballs, the second of which Butler just stood and watched without flinching. Strike three, good sir.

From there things got considerably easier. In the bottom half of the sixth Denard Span walked, and then scored on an Orlando Cabrera double down the left field line. After Kubel singled in the seventh, Carlos Gomez replaced him on the bases and later scored on a Matt Tolbert (TOL-BEAR!!) double into right. In the bottom half of the eighth Span singled, and then scored on a Cabrera double down the left field line. Yes, again. Oh, and one more thing.

"BOOM!" said Cuddyer. With authori-tah.

Astoundingly the Royals actually out-hit the Twins 12-11, with the difference being that A) the Twins walked seven times and B) the Twins out-homered the Royals 5-1. That kind of thing usually makes it very easy to win.

Brian Duensing, Jesse Crain and Francisco Liriano dusted off the final three innings without allowing a run, and at the end of the afternoon the Twins had done the unbelieveable: they'd swept the Royals, and earned themselves a shot at the division title.

While the White Sox couldn't complete the miracle, it hardly seems to matter. Minnesota was written off for dead, not just by most of the baseball world but by many of their own fans. And you know what? I don't blame anyone. I don't harbor any hard feelings toward anyone for looking at the mathematical probabilities on Friday morning and saying "nope". But it was't over then, and it's not over now.

Tuesday afternoon at four the Tigers come to town to defend a crown that should be theirs. There will be no pressure on the Twins in this game--they're "not supposed" to even be there. For the second year in a row the Twins have to play game 163 to decide whether or not they are the AL Central champions, to decide whether or not they earn the right to play post-season baseball. This time the game is being played where it should be played: in the comforts of Dome.

The season plays on for at least one more glorious afternoon of baseball. And we get once last shot under the teflon sky. Are you excited? Because you sure as hell should be.

Stars of the Game
#3: Delmon Young (2-for-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI, 2 R, .071 WPA)
#2: Carl Pavano (5.2 IP on three days rest, 8 H, 7 K, 1 BB, 4 R, .096 WPA)
#1: Jason Kubel (3-for-4, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 2 R, .257 WPA)

Mauer's MVP Beats Greinke's Cy Young, Twins Stave Off Comeback

Jesse — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 00:12:08 -0000

More photos » by Jim Mone - AP

2 months ago: Minnesota Twins' Jason Kubel, left, Michael Cuddyer, center and Joe Mauer, right, celebrate after scoring on a three-run double by Delmon Young off Kansas City Royals pitcher Zack Greinke in the sixth inning of a baseball game Saturday, Oct. 3, 2009, in Minneapolis. It was the final series in the Metrodome. (AP Photo/Jim Mone)

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Twins 5, Royals 4

There are no shortages of heroes in Minnesota tonight. A four-run sixth disappeared, but today the Twins weren't going to be denied.

For five and a half innings, Zack Greinke and Nick Blackburn traded zeros. The game's first hit didn't even come until Orlando Cabrera led off the bottom of the fourth, but for more than half of the contest it was a beautiful pitcher's duel. Stressful? Yes. But beautiful.

The Twins finally drew blood in the bottom of the sixth. Nick Punto drew an eight-pitch walk off Greinke to lead off the frame, before Denard "ideal leadoff guy" Span dropped down a made-to-order bunt on the first pitch he saw. With LNP standing on second base, Greinke's pitches began to sit high in the zone. He managed to get Cabrera to ground out to third base, but he wasn't able to keep Punto from advancing. With two out and the game still knotted at zero, up stepped Joe Mauer.

Greinke tried to bust Mauer up and in twice, with Joe taking atypical chances and taking cuts on them both and fouling them off. A pair of sliders just under the strike zone followed, leading to a 1-2 count before Greinke tried to come up and in with another fastball. This time, Joe did exactly what he meant to. He pulled it through the right side, and Punto finally scored to give the Twins a 1-0 lead.

Then the Royals ace came off the rails, just a little bit. Jason Kubel took an outer-half fastball and shot it down the left field line, for a moment saving Greinke from a run as it hit the turf and then bounced over the fence, keeping Mauer on third base. Then he hit Michael Cuddyer with a 94-mph fastball. For the third time in two days, the Royals loaded the bases for Delmon Young.

Maybe Greinke was feeling confident. Maybe he just didn't locate the ball where he wanted it to go. Maybe he and Miguel Olivo were over-thinking their strategy. For whatever reason, Greinke served Delmon a 95-mph first-pitch fastball somewhere between the letters and the belly button, and as everyone's favorite play-by-play guy likes to say, he didn't miss it. Young went the other way, dropping the ball into right field, clearing the bases to give the Twins a 4-0 lead.

Kansas City stuck with their man, even after Jose Morales singled on the next pitch. Even Matt Tolbert swung at the first pitch he saw, and he hit it hard. But this time the ball was blind, and Minnesota's rally came to and end. So did Greinke's afternoon.

A Mike Jacobs homer in the top of the seventh put Kansas City on the board, but it was the eighth that, if you were watching or listening or at this game, should have put the fear of the baseball gods right into you. Olivo led it off with a double, signaling the end of Blackburn's night. Jose Mijares replaced him, and I'm starting to wonder if he's inside of his own head a bit after throwing at Adam Everett on Thursday. Alex Gordon took the third fastball he saw and deposited it over the right field fence, cutting Minnesota's lead to one. Another single saw Mijares get the hook for Jon Rauch, who did his job one batter too late.

Willie Bloomquist singled, moving something called Tug Hutlett to third with no outs in the inning. Rauch got Mitch Maier to roll into a double play, but it scored the tying run. The Metrodome fell silent, and if you weren't having images of whatever playoff hopes you had crashing down in your subconscious, then I envy you. For a game that looked so well in hand to fall apart so quickly, it didn't look good.

You know who didn't care? You know who said "Get on my back, I have broad shoulders and really big dimples and the bat of a hero"? Michael Cuddyer. The same guy who Greinke nailed two innings prior watched a pair of pitches miss the zone before he decided to take a chance. Dusty Hughes threw a changeup, as straight as it could possibly be, right over the plate at about Cuddyer's knees. Cuddles turned on it, and lauched it into the home run porch in left field. He breathed life back into the season, into the team, and into the fans.

Joe Nathan struck out a pair in a perfect ninth inning to pick up save number 47, and once again the Minnesota Twins have won. It's not over yet, kids. No matter what happens tonight, tomorrow matters. And if by some miracle the Tigers lose tonight, tomorrow matters even more.

Holy crap. Can they do this?

Stars of the Game
#3: Delmon Young (2-for-4, 2B, 3 RBI, .154 WPA)
#2: Nick Blackburn (7+ IP, 2 R, 5 K, 0 BB, .305 WPA)
#1: Michael Cuddyer (1-for-3, HR, RBI, 2 R, .245 WPA)

The Two Sides of Adam Dunn: Graph of the Day

Walter Fulbright — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 21:47:58 -0000

’"You're not going to succeed if you don't have the talent," Reds general manager Jim Bowden said. ’"The ones with the makeup and the character are the ones who take it to the next level. I don't think Adam Dunn needs any nurturing. You just let him go."...

... Dunn is not frightened by Griffey's recent experiences in the spotlight. Neither is he the type to change his persona to fit fame. ’"I'm not going to change," he said. ’"I'm a pretty loud guy, a pretty outspoken guy."

Example: "Aaron (Boone) would be a great wife if he were a woman."

From the Cincinnati Enquirer, February 26, 2002

It's weird to remember, but Adam Dunn was once highly prized as a prospect as much for his athleticism as his perhaps patient to a fault batting eye and prodigious power. It's a world away from when the Mariners' insistence of his inclusion in the Ken Griffey Jr. trade almost sunk that deal. But not necessarily in a bad way.

Considering their eventual haul in that trade: Brett Tomko, Mike Cameron, Antonio Perez and Jake Meyer, maybe Seattle should have stuck to their guns. But the 235 pound University of Texas backup quarterback became perhaps the most polarizing player in baseball ... and by almost nothing of his own doing. No firecrackers or water bottles thrown into the stands, no notable tirades, no frustrating nagging injuries, no media meltdowns.

Just a frustratingly patient (for a certain baseball element) approach that emphasized walks over singles, and downplayed the negative impact of strikeouts, now a common skillset (as is noted by Mark Reynolds and Jack Cust owning the league records for strikeouts in a season. Of course Reynolds broke Ryan Howard's record that had stood for a whopping 2 years, then broke his own record the very next year.)

But 235 pounds (even a trim, streamlined one, as he was) is relatively heavy for a baseball player. Now at over 300 (as constant rumors, as well as basic evalutation by the naked eye have put him), he's still a pretty good athlete - if in the Nationals are planning on fielding a scrimmage football team for the fall. His top speed still grades out at about league average (it was once well above it in his salad days). But that pesky law of inertia is a fickle one, and with that size the acceleration and change of direction is gone, far and away the more important baseball skills. His tracking fly balls down in the outfield is like chasing an automobile with a freight train: raw mph doesn't really describe why it can't work.

The total UZR chart above actually has Adam Dunn split between two positions: generalized OF (mostly RF, some LF) and a not insignicant amount of time at 1B. The thing is, unlike his body type comparables (say, Ryan Howard and Prince Fielder), Adam Dunn can't hide his failings at the cold corner. Whatever advantage he has for reaching to balls above his head (a pretty low percentage play anyway) are absolutely obliterated by his inability to scoop balls in the dirt, either from throws or from ground balls. He's so completely top heavy that he has an inherent disadvantage to those born with the virtue of just being closer to the ground. This is a pretty definite trend, he has roughly the same power off the bat as when he was 23, only with 60-70 more pounds packed on, his defense has gone from pretty bad to awful to absolutely unacceptable. But is this his failing? He's still a superstar, just playing out of position because he no longer has one. There is, however, a rule change in the American League from 1973 that I'd like to make J.P. Ricciardi aware of.

It wasn't but two offseasons ago that I thought Dunn would make an excellent replacement for Manny Ramirez in Boston considering the eventual probably decline of David Ortiz and the much friendlier dimensions of LF in Boston (one it seems he might have been able to handle as capably as Jason Bay has, at the same age and a little less price). There will be a VOC graph tomorrow about the Nationals, and since I dedicated about a thousand words to him here, I'm going to make that analysis completely Donkey-free. However, pay attention to where he stands ... and let's start a letter writing campaign to see if we can find the Nationals an American League trading partner. For what the Royals gave up for Yuniesky Betancourt*, could they have landed an Adam Dunn to replace the similarly defensively challenged Mike Jacobs?

*Also wanted to point out in the UZR chart above that of the players listed, only Betancourt was acquired primarily for his defense. I think I can let that fact stand on it's own.

This is an unfortunate turning point for Adam Dunn - neither the traditional nor the statistically-leaned are particularly on his side at this point, and it's possible his future is now railroaded to obscurity. But I'm pretty sure there'll be a special place in statistical history for Adam Dunn ... and his 50% of Mike Schmidt style skill set.

Dayton Moore's Off-Season Trades Have Started To Look Mildly Less Terrible

royalsreview — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 18:14:11 -0000

Thanks to some mild struggles (or non-awesomeness really) from Ramon Ramirez in Boston and a typical Leo Nunez implosion in Florida, Dayton Moore's two major off-season trades don't look quite as terrible as they did around the All-Star Break.

Alright, actually, 90% of this is just ole Leo's struggles, but hey, you wanted more positive analysis.

Let's not be mistaken here: both trades are still failures. They may have been justified gambles, but each failed to pan out. The trades added $9 million to the team payroll, along with directly encouraging additional spending on Kyle Farnsworth, Horacio Ramirez, and Jamey Wright. The bullpen got more expensive and worse, and for their troubles, the Royals got 49 games of Coco Crisp and a player with negative value in Mike Jacobs.

However, we can now consider these trades as only a seven or an eight on the failure scale, instead of a ten.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Mike Jacobs	115	388	38	91	16	1	17	55	35	114	0	0	.235	.301	.412

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Leo Nunez	4-5	68	0	0	0	21	6	62.1	52	28	28	12	23	56	4.04	1.20

October 31, 2008: Leo Nunez traded to Florida for Mike Jacobs

Team leadership has not shied away from voicing their disappointment regarding Jacobs's performance in 2009, which is a little strange because it has been little different than what he's done throughout his career. He's lost some singles, but his ISO and HR/FB numbers are mostly in line with his career numbers. Mostly, he's just had a non-career year, which has caused him to lose playing time, which has made his counting stats look even worse.

So how has this trade started to look better?

First, the Royals have done an admirable job keeping Jacobs off the field. He's only played 112 innings with a glove this season, which has mitigated some of the damage he does to a baseball team. As such, his WAR total is "only" a terrible -0.3. Yes, that's awful for a guy you voluntarily added to your team. Yes, that's awful awful for a guy you are paying $3.25 million for. Sure. Still, it could have been worse. Imagine if Jacobs was playing first full-time and not posting his highest walk rate since 2006.

Secondly, Leo Nunez, after a nice start, has fallen apart in Florida. In his last 49 games, Nunez has posted a 5.10 ERA, in the National League, in a pitcher's park. As such, Nunez's WAR total for 2009 is -0.7. He's been worse than Jacobs. Of course, Leo's also making the league minimum. Although he's set to be arb-eligible for 2010 (I think) he's still likely to be cheaper than Jacobs will be.

Trade Verdict: Trash in, trash out. After the trade, I speculated that Nunez might have been on the precipice of "getting it" or turning a corner or whatever. That didn't really happen. Nevertheless, Jacobs has been just as lame as we predicted. We're bummed out by the low OBP, the team brass sees lower RBIs and strikeouts (or whatever they look at) but the result has been the same. When a guy's value actually goes up when he plays less, because he's a net negative, well, that's literally the definition of a sub-replacement level player. The trade could have been worse, had Nunez panned out in Florida, but at the moment, it's only a two out of three failure: Jacobs is bad and Jacobs took the roster spot and the salary of a potential player who could have easily been better. Maybe the most horrifying thing remains unchanged, as the Jacobs acquisition continues to reveal how the team's Major League talent evaluation is broken.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Coco Crisp	49	180	30	41	8	5	3	14	29	23	13	2	.228	.336	.378

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Ramon Ramirez	7-4	61	0	0	0	0	3	61.0	51	20	19	6	27	48	2.80	1.28

November 19: Ramon Ramirez traded to Boston for Coco Crisp.

Thanks to good defensive numbers and the fact that his season ended shortly after a hot streak, Coco's WAR for the season stands at 1.3. Coco was walking like crazy during his two months as a Royal and there's a reasonable case to be made for the fact that Coco's defensive numbers would have likely declined a touch as the year, that he didn't play, dragged on. Coco's salary for 2009, one of the highest on the team at $5.75 million, wasn't a complete waste, at least from a strict WAR perspective. Nonetheless, the Royals traded for a player with injury history, and that player with injury history got injured. Bad luck!

Meanwhile, Ramon Ramirez, has not quite flourished in Boston. He's been good, and would still be the best non-Soria reliever on the Royals. He's slumped mildly after a hot start, and has posted a 0.5 WAR in a deep Boston bullpen. He's been good, but he hasn't been quite as awesome as he had been in 2008.

Trade Verdict: Considering that Ramirez is making the league minimum in 2009 and arb-eligible for the first time in 2010, he figures to be a cheap bullpen option for a team that doesn't need cheap players for a few more years. Crisp, meanwhile, faces an unclear future with the Royals, who continue to look for other options in centerfield. Instead of solidifying a position of need, Crisp was just another player who was briefly slotted in. For 49 games of Coco Crisp, the Royals gave up four salary-controlled seasons of Ramon Ramirez. The odds are extremely small that the Royals will win this trade, but hey, at least they didn't lose it immediately!

The Royals would do well to swallow their pride and part ways with Coco Crisp and Mike Jacobs in 2010, effectively turning the page on these two fall of 2008 trades. If it is any consolation, we can now be pretty sure that the Royals only traded away one cheap & effective reliever, not two. Leo Nunez, we now nominate you for Dayton Moore's 2009 off-season MVP.