SB Nation - Kevin Gregg

Fantasy Baseball: Profiling Yesterday's Non-Tenders

raygu — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 17:00:20 -0000

by Al Behrman - AP

2 months ago: Pittsburgh Pirates closer Matt Capps pitches against the Cincinnati Reds in the ninth inning of a baseball game, Friday, Oct. 2, 2009, in Cincinnati. Pittsburgh won the game 3-1. (AP Photo/Al Behrman)

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Yesterday was the last day that teams could offer contracts to their arbitration-eligible players, and there were some interesting non-tenders for sure. Let's take a look:

Matt Capp, CL, PITT

The Pirates will now go into spring training looking for a closer, unless they veer off course and sign a free agent like Jose Valverde, Mike Gonzalez, Fernando Rodney, or Kevin Gregg. They also could dangle Andy Laroche in a deal for a closer since they traded for Akinori Iwamura to play second base. That assumes that Pedro Alvarez wins the Pirates 3B job out of spring training, otherwise Laroche will be the Pirates 3Bman. Here is what MLB.com said about the Pirates closer situation:

In the meantime, the Pirates now have even more work to do to construct a bullpen that had already lost Jesse Chavez in an offseason trade. One thing the Pirates do seem confident in, though, is that their next closer could come in-house, as both Joel Hanrahan and Evan Meek are likely to garner consideration for the role.

I don't see either Hanrahan or Meek keeping the job. Capps Is coming off his worst year of his career as he ended the year with a 5.80 ERA. Could the Phillies take a chance on Capps to backup Lidge?

Jonny Gomes, OF, CIN

Gomes is coming off a season where he went 20-51-.267-.338-.541-.879. Gomes could be a nice pickup for a team that wants to platoon his vs. left-handed pitchers as he hit .307-.369-.545-.914 against lefties in 2009. In his career, Gomes has hit .274-.369-.517-.885 vs lefties.

it appears the Reds will go into spring training with an open competition in LF with Wladimir Balentein, Chris Dickerson, Chris Heisey and Todd Frazier vying for the spot.

Kelly Johnson, 2B, ATL

Johnson is coming off a down year where he lost the second base job to Martin Prado in Atlanta. He went 8-29-7-.229-.303-.389-.692 in 2009 after going 12-69-11-.287-.349-.446-.795 in 2008. Johnson's BABIP in 2009 was a very low .247, much lower than his career BABIP average of .311. There were some positives in his 2009 season, as he lowered his K% from 18.4% to 15.6% and increased his BB% from 8.5% to 9.3%.

Johnson could be a nice sleeper in 2009 should he land a second base job. If he can bring his BABIP close to .300 and continue to show improved plate discipline, he could have another season like he did in 2008. Do you hear me Ned?

Poll

Which player has a better chance at landing a starting job in 2010?

The NL Central Offseason Revue: Ursine Children

the red baron — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 19:43:23 -0000

Sure, I've used it before. It's a good picture, damn it.

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But first, a story. (Just so you know it's a Baron post.)

Last weekend, my mother and I went shopping. The Cherokee Street Antique Row Association was holding their annual Cookie Spree, and we go every year. There's always people milling around, free hot apple cider, and most of the shops are decorated.

We met up in South County, deciding it was a better idea to take one car. Mom tends to get motion sickness when not driving, so I generally just ride with her. We headed up 55 toward the city, then exited at the 4500 block of Broadway.

At the bottom of the ramp was an old woman holding a sign. A square of cardboard scrawled all over in black marker, I couldn't read exactly what was written but the message was clear nonetheless. It was cold out, and the ragged old overcoat she was clutching around her looked woefully inadequate. I've been conned before, I'm sure, but this was no panhandler. This was an old woman with no place to go who badly needed help.

We came to a stop at the bottom of the ramp, and I dug out my wallet. Mom reached for her purse, and I told her I would get it. I opened my wallet and grabbed the first two bills in it, a ten and a twenty. Then, guided by some internal calculus I don't at all understand, I put the ten back. I handed my mother the twenty, she motioned the old woman over, and gave it to her. The old woman said something, toothless mouth moving quickly, blessing us and wishing us well, but by then the car was moving and I couldn't entirely tell what it was. We continued on our way, had hot chocolate and apple cider and cookies. I bought an antique light fixture; it seemed like a fine day.

I tell you all this not to make you think I'm some sort of saint for giving this old woman twenty dollars, but because ever since then I haven't been able to stop thinking about the ten dollars I didn't give her. I had almost $300 in my wallet that day, and a credit card nowhere near the limit to boot. In no way, shape, or form would that extra ten dollars have hurt me, yet I put it back. And worst of all, I don't understand why. I like to think I would do whatever it takes to help someone in need, but apparently that only goes so far. Apparently there's a price on my generosity, and it's painfully low. A truly good person would have been willing to hand over everything they had in hand and never thought twice about it; I certainly didn't need another antique to litter my already cluttered house.

We went back the same way later, on the way back to my car, but the old woman was gone. I hope what I gave her was enough to help, but I can't stop thinking about that moment, when I arbitrarily decided the limits of how much I was willing to help another human being.

I've had these posts in mind for a while now, trying to take a look around the division at our rivals and what their offseasons might look like, but simply hadn't had the chance to do so yet. With my inability to post a full post on Wednesday, I thought I might ask Dan if he minded me taking today. He seemed amenable to the idea, unsurprising given the dearth of real meat to work with this time of year and what is undoubtedly a crowded schedule for everyone. So here I am, telling you what the Cubs need to do this winter.

I begin with the Cubs because they are our chief rivals and also because it simply fits. We care more about the Cubs. So here we are.

As the Cubbies head into their first offseason with new ownership, the question of payroll undoubtedly must be raised. Their new owner, Tom Ricketts, has pledged to update the stadium and build a winner, but just how much one will impact the other remains to be seen. For now, it looks as if Ricketts is willing to pour money into the franchise in order to win, and we'll have to operate under that assumption.

Offense

The Cubs' offense took a huge hit last season from the high times of 2008, due to several players underperforming. Alfonso Soriano was the biggest culprit, stumbling to an OPS+ of 84 after three seasons over 115. Geovany Soto went through an awful sophomore slump, falling from a 118 OPS+ to 79. Aramis Ramirez missed significant time with a shoulder injury, and Derrek Lee struggled mightily early in the season before turning it around.

There were bright spots, such as the improvement Kosuke Fukudome made from his first season in the majors or the continued non-suckitude of Ryan Theriot, but overall it was an intensely disappointing season for Chicago at the plate. In 2008 the Cubs scored 855 runs; in 2009 they plated only 707. Enough said.

Starting Pitching

If the Cubs' offense was decidedly disappointing, the pitching was underwhelmingly good. Carlos Zambrano continued his human roller coaster act, yet still managed to post an ERA under 4.00 for the eighth straight year. Nonetheless, the Big Z is no longer quite the intimidating force at the front of a rotation he once was. He's still solid, but he doesn't really scare you anymore. (Well, unless you happen to be something edible or punchable in the dugout, that is.)

Ryan Dempster fell off from his 2008 performance, but was still a plus pitcher for Chicago. He was awful much of the early portion of the year, but came on strong late to lower his ERA to 3.65. Dempster provides much-needed innings, and at a reasonably high level. After Z and Dumpster, though, things get a bit murkier.

Ted Lilly, a relatively unsung contributor to the Cubs' back-to-back division titles, has had shoulder surgery already this offseason. It was minor shoulder surgery, yes, but then again, I'm not entirely sure there is such a thing. Lilly was absolutely brilliant in 2009, posting a 3.61 FIP, but until he can prove his shoulder is unequivocally sound, he has to be a concern.

Perhaps the brightest spot of all for the Cubs in '09 was the performance of their rookie hurler, Randy Wells. He went 12-10, 3.05 in his first extended taste of the majors at 27. His peripherals were mostly in line as well, so it doesn't appear he did it all with smoke and mirrors. Still, Wells is a relatively unknown commodity, and may simply be waiting until the time is right to give up a crippling home run, then rip open his jersey, revealing the Cardinal jersey underneath. So there's that.

The Cubs' fifth starter spot was, for the most part, a disaster. Sean Marshall continued to impersonate Sean Marshall. The Cubs acquired Tom Gorzelanny from the Pirates, and he picked up basically where he left off in Pittsburgh. There were positives in his performance, but for the most part it was another disappointing season for the man once voted Most Likely to Actually Live Up to His Billing among all Pittsburgh left-handed starting prospects.

Relief

Carlos Marmol is sort of the pitching equivalent of a British motorcycle. Yeah, it's a whole lot of fun when it's working, and it certainly looks impressive, but damned if the thing isn't broken down and spilling oil all over your driveway more often than not. Marmol has some of the nastiest stuff in the game, but not much idea where it's going a fair amount of the time. Hitters did a much better job of laying off his slider in 2009, and he had a tough time throwing it for strikes. He still struck out a bunch of hitters (93 in 74 innings), and didn't give up many hits (43), but he also walked 65 hitters, leading to a 1.46 WHIP fueled almost entirely by batters simply standing there and doing nothing.

Kevin Gregg was solid, though not the force the Cubs were undoubtedly hoping for, and he has now departed via free agency. Angel Guzman was impressive, combining a repertoire just a step down from Marmol's with actual control, but he remains very young and was shut down late in the season with an injury. Neal Cotts was, um, how do I put this?- shitty, only to be replaced as the primary lefty by John Grabow. Grabow did what he always does, and should be a definite plus in the 'pen for 2010.

Jeff Samardzija continued his enigmatic career arc, following up his 2.28 ERA in 2008 with a 7.53 in 2009. Sure, he's talented, but at some point Samardzija is going to have to come up with something more than a big fastball and a passing resemblance to Andy Samberg if he wants to succeed at the major league level.

Needs

Any discussion of the Chicago Cubs' offseason has to begin with the outfield, where they badly need to figure things out. Milton Bradley wasn't a bad player for them in 2009; on the contrary, he was probably still their best outfielder, but all signs point to him being dealt this offseason, and I'm not sure I can blame the Cubs. As much as Bradley wasn't the problem with the team this year, I just don't know if his relationship with the fans, not to mention his teammates, is a tenable one.

If Bradley is dealt, the Cubs will have to come up with someone to try and replicate his offensive contributions, and several names have been floated. Rick Ankiel was thought to be their first choice until fairly recently, but things seem to have cooled slightly on that front since Scott Boras made his comments about multiple years and big dollars for Swingin' Dick's services. The Cubs don't seem to have much interest in Matt Holliday, perhaps being a bit gun shy after witnessing how horribly wrong a seven-year deal for an outfielder can go. They also haven't been mentioned all that much in the Jason Bay sweepstakes, so I have to assume they're looking at lower-hanging fruit.

Beyond the outfield, it's somewhat doubtful the Cubs will be able to make any substantial upgrades to their offense. Both corner infield positions are set, and rightfully so. Soto will be looking for a bounceback season; it's far too early to write him off as a one-year wonder. The only spots the Cubs could look to upgrade are the middle infield positions, but I'm not sure how much help is really available at those spots this offseason. Perhaps the Cubbies get involved in trying to trade for Dan Uggla? They do have an exciting young middle infield prospect in the pipeline named Starlin Castro, who has garnered plenty of comparisons to Edgar Renteria, and could draw interest from Florida, but little beyond that.

The bullpen has to be an area of concern, and priority one has to be sorting out who will at least begin the season as the Chicago closer. Marmol, I'm sure, will have the inside track on the job, but after his 2009 performance it shouldn't be a foregone conclusion. I doubt the Cubs will go outside the organisation to find a stopper, but it's likely they'll try to acquire at least an arm or two to bolster the overall depth of the 'pen.

Priorities

Deal with Milton Bradley situation. Trade is most likely outcome.
Acquire offensive upgrade to replace Bradley's production. Left-handed hitter would be desirable.
Shore up bullpen, likely through trades. (Bradley?)
Look at other possible offensive upgrades, i.e. Uggla or Mark DeRosa as utility player.
Acquire 5th starter/ insurance arm for Ted Lilly.
???
World Series title.

The Bottom Line

The Cubs are by no means in dire straights. They underachieved badly last season, but the offense should receive a boost from a full season from Ramirez and, hopefully, better years from Soriano, Soto, and Lee. The same can't really be said for the pitching, which performed right about where one would expect, given the talent level. The starting rotation will remain their biggest strength, while the bullpen remains somewhat suspect.

At this point, the Cubs have to be considered the Cards' main competition for the division again in 2009. Both teams are clearly a step or two ahead of the pack.

There you go, folks. One in the can, four to go.

The Baron's Playlist for the 11th of December, 2009

"The Blizzard" - Camera Obscura A cover of the Jim Reeves/ Johnny Cash classic. Any CO fans out there (and I know there are some), you might want to check out their holiday 7" release, with the Blizzard backed by Swans.

"My Wife and My Dead Wife" - Robyn Hitchcock and the Egyptians

"Oh You Pretty Things" - Peter Noone I just heard this on Pop! The Beat Bubble Bursts yesterday morning, and I can't stop listening to it. It's a Bowie cover by the former Herman's Hermits frontman, and it has a bit of an early Harry Nilsson vibe to it. Really great.

"Intermezzo Sinfonico" from Mascagni's Cavalleria Rusticana - James Levine

"Take On Me" - A.C. Newman Another tip of the hat to KDHX, this time to Nick Acquisto and the Space Parlour. Outstanding cover of the A-Ha classic.

Edit: And, of course, on the day I write this, some actual news comes down the pipeline, as the Cardinals have now apparently made an official offer to Scott Boras and Matt Holliday. Sigh. They couldn't have waited just one more day? Really?

Jose Valverde Rejects Arbitration Offer- Who Closes Now?

HighLeveragePerformer — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 12:00:32 -0000

by Ross D. Franklin - AP

Adios, amigo.

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The Astros and GM Ed Wade were handed a great piece of news on Monday night, as closer Jose Valverde declined arbitration choosing instead to remain a free agent. Valverde made his intent to test the market in free agency known early on, and despite the extension of an arbitration offer from the Astros, Jose has decided to take the plunge and see if he can parlay his strong recent seasons into a big money free agent contract.

Almost certainly this means the end of his tenure as the last man out the Astros 'pen. While he was certainly a positive contributor, he is a luxury that the organization cannot afford. If nothing else, we can remember Jose Valverde's as a rock of consistent, if not spectacular play, a welcome relief from the often turbulent ninths we saw from Brad Lidge. People jump all over Ed Wade and his penchant for bringing in relievers, often over cost, and rightfully so especially with a team lacking in talent like our Astros have been. At least we can say in Valverde's case that the big name reliever was as good as advertised once he got to town.

Now the question that need be answered is who will step into the vacated closer's position? Rafael Soriano, whom the Astros had reported shown interest in, has accepted the Braves' offer of arbitration, while set up man Mike Gonzalez has chosen to take the opposite route in rejecting the Braves' advances. On the Braves' front, the back end of their bullpen will be full of former and current closers, with Soriano joining Takashi Saito and Billy Wagner after the latter two recently joined Atlanta in free agency. I don't know if Braves' GM Frank Wren anticipated that Soriano would decline arbitration, but he will have a large sum of $ invested in three men who will pitch at most 190 innings combined. That's an almost Astro-like utilization of resources. To the point, Gonzalez will be an option for Ed Wade to check in on. A multi year deal would most likely be what it takes to reign in the man with the awesome windup.

Of course, LaTroy Hawkins is an option, but he has been sought after by more than just the Astros. If anything, I would expect Ed Wade to amp up his charge to sign Hawk to a one year contract for 2010. If I had to place a wager, I believe he will be re-signed and given the opportunity to be our closer. Without great strikeout stuff, Hawkins will have to overcome his lack of a killer fastball to get hitters out. Our budget may necessitate this more than anything else.

Kevin Gregg, Brandon Lyon and Fernando Rodney are out there, and I hope the Astros do nothing more than kick their tires and pass. J.J. Putz, however, would be an interesting sign, and could probably be had on the cheap after coming off injury and poor performance.

The Astros were given a gift last night. Who knows what can be done with it. A free agent starting pitcher and/or an affordable third base option are more realistic than last week, in terms of ability of the Astros to sign a player or two. In the long term, Bobby Heck has produced a solid draft class from 2009, and if Valverde as expected does not re-sign with the club, two draft choices will come his way. All in all, a good night for the Astros. The next couple days could be even better as a result.

Winter Meetings Catch-Up 12/07/09

Ian Casselberry — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 00:00:18 -0000

Okay, with the assorted FanShots and main page posts, let's have one place to chat until some more news or rumors break at the Winter Meetings. I ask that you please continue to post links as FanPosts, just so people know where to look on the blog main page. I may repeat those stories on the front page, just to add more details and for distribution purposes.

If this has made things a bit confusing, I apologize. But I think it's the best way to facilitate discussion among regular commenters and anyone who may be clicking over here (for the first time or otherwise) to check on the latest developments.

Here's the day so far from Indianapolis:

Adam Everett has re-signed with the Tigers, agreeing to a one-year, $1.55 million contract.
Clay Rapada was traded to the Texas Rangers for a player to be named later (or cash considerations).
Several teams are interested in trading for Edwin Jackson, but according to FOXSports.com, the Seattle Mariners and Arizona Diamondbacks may be closest to a deal.
The Yankees are among the clubs interested in both Jackson and Curtis Granderson, but based on what Buster Olney reported on ESPN, the Tigers may have asked for more than the Yanks were willing to trade.
Jon Paul Morosi reported that the Angels are also "still in" on Jackson and Granderson.
Perhaps the Washington Nationals can also be counted among those pursuing Jackson, according to the Washington Post's Dave Sheinin.
In all, 12 teams are reportedly making offers for Jackson that the Tigers are now sifting through.
Fanhouse's Ed Price mentioned a rumor that the Mets had acquired Jackson. But the key word there was "rumor," and this eventually proved to be false news.
Via Yahoo! Sports' Tim Brown, the Tigers are one of four (and maybe five) teams looking at reliever Kevin Gregg. This year, Gregg compiled 23 saves (in 31 chances) for the Cubs, with 71 strikeouts and 30 walks in 68.2 innings. He beat out Carlos Marmol for the team's closer job, but eventually lost it in mid-August.
Detroit also signed minor league pitcher Brad Thomas, as reported by The Detroit Tigers Weblog. Thomas, a 32-year-old lefty, last pitched in the majors in 2004, playing the last two years in Korea.
Finally, the Tigers outrighted reliever Zach Simons to Triple-A Toledo, removing him from the 40-man roster (where Thomas replaces him).

Did we miss anything? Until anything new arises, this can be a place for general discussion. Thanks for your cooperation.

Tampa Bay Rays News and Rumors for December 7th: Interest in Kevin Gregg, Update on Milton Bradley Swap, The Mets Interest in Pat Burrell, and More

R.J. Anderson — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 17:00:30 -0000

New/General Rumors

Up first, a Tweet from Yahoo! Sports writer Tim Brown:

Early market for Kevin Gregg: Rays, Nats, Tigers, Rockies...

Gregg was eligible for Type-A compensation but the Cubs chose against offering him arbitration due to a poor season. His career FIP is 4.00 and last year it was 4.93. Wanna know the secret behind that horrible year? It has to do with the fact that 15% of his fly balls went over the fence, his previous career high was 11.6% and his career percentage even now is 8.5%. That's what we call a prime candidate for regression towards the mean. Ignore the home runs (i.e. use xFIP) and Gregg had one of the best seasons of his career when it came to strikeouts and walks. He misses bats and should be a bit undervalued, I suppose it really comes down to asking price.

More after the jump, including the latest on Pat Burrell and Matt Lindstrom.

Pat Burrell/Milton Bradley

Next, we have a Tweet from the New York Post's Joel Sherman

#Rays growing less hopeful of swapping Burrell to #Cubs

Could be posturing, could be serious. Who knows. Lots of disinformation and bluffing will occur during these next few days. Keep that in mind. Same with this Tweet, also from Sherman:

If Burrell goes to #Cubs for MBradley, #Mets consider Castillo-for-Burrell, but r hesitant because of defense/makeup issues with Burrell

And finally -- for now -- there is a report out there that Burrell has been dealt to the Cubs, who then dealt him to the Mets. I'm not linking to it because A) It doesn't pass the smell test, and B) I think Sherman, Rosenthal, Olney, whomever would have more information by now, like, say, the other players names. We'll see.

[Note by R.J. Anderson, 12/07/09 12:37 PM EST ]An update on this comes from the aforementioned Tim Brown:

Rays source on Burrell to Mets: "News to us."

So there's that.

And here's this, from David Lennon of NewsDay:

lenno212

Oh, and forget Burrell to #Mets - period. Source just said team not interested in him. Not in 3-way, not in any way.

Matt Lindstrom

A Tweet from Buster Olney regarding Matt Lindstrom:

Rangers perhaps the most serious among teams in discussion for Matt Lindstrom. Two teams have fallen out of running, two other teams in.

And a Tweet from Frankie Piliere, formerly of the Rangers organization as a scout:

Rangers look like front runner for Lindstrom from what I've heard. Hard to find solid info on Lindstrom rumors but I think Tex is leading

This from the Miami Herald:

Lindstrom trade rumors are swirling, but I'm told that the Rangers' interest in the hard-throwing reliever is not as strong as some reports have led to believe. And the Rays' interest in Lindstrom is mild at best.

More coming throughout the day.

Orioles interested in Kevin Gregg?

Eli Greenspan — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 23:19:35 -0000

More photos » by Paul Beaty - AP

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INDIANAPOLIS - The Orioles are interested in free agent closer Kevin Gregg, who pitched under Orioles pitching coach Rick Kranitz in Florida. Gregg struggled mightily in Chicago, posting a 4.72 ERA in 72 games.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Kevin Gregg	5-6	72	0	0	0	23	7	68.2	60	38	36	13	30	71	4.72	1.31

The Orioles are in need of a veteran late inning reliever, and Gregg - with a career 4.10 ERA - would be a low cost option who could help stabilize their bullpen.

The Orioles are also looking to add a starter and potentially a corner infielder. In terms of a starting pitcher, one NL source said the Orioles could look into trading for veteran Derek Lowe, but the Braves would have to take on the majority of his salary so there may not be a match.

Aaron Harang or Bronson Arroyo of the Reds could also be options as well.

For a corner infielder, the Orioles aren't looking for anything long-term. With Josh Bell and Brandon Snyder a year or so away from playing everyday in Baltimore, a one-year stop gap like Troy Glaus or Pedro Feliz could improve the middle of their order.

Astros Hot Stove Rumors

davoag — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 20:57:40 -0000

More photos » by Rob Carr - AP

Have you seen this man? He's a possible closer, maybe a starter...

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Since it seems all the rage to link the Houston Astros to all sorts of guys in the rumor mill this offseason, how about we do a quick recap of what exactly is going on and how those guys potentially fit with the team.

Brett Myers -- DyingQuail has done a good job of tracking down whether Myers would be viewed as a starter or a reliever. He got a tweet response from Alyson Footer that said Wade is considering Myers as a starter foremost, but his versatility as a reliever is also a plus. The Astros realistically have one spot open in the rotation, unless they bump Moehler to long relief. Myers is coming off a season where he earned 12 million in the last year of a three-year, 25.75M deal. Safe to say he doesn't get that this offseason. [I'm pretty sure that the owner who cuts Julio Lugo days after he is charged with spousal battery yet brings in Myers loses all moral high ground in perpetuity]

J.J. Putz - Putz was a legitimately great reliever in 2007, a good one in 2008 and a injury-ridden one in 2009. Ed Wade's most recent comments to Brian McTaggart suggest that the Astros interest is at just a 'checking-in' phase. Putz could fill in nicely as a back of the bullpen guy, though it's too soon to tell whether his struggles last season were because of injury or because he couldn't move back into a setup role.

Placido Polanco - Reportedly, Polanco has signed a three-year deal with the Phillies. That seems a tad too long for me and probably wouldn't have fit the Astros long-term plans. Still, a player who can hit for a high average would look good at the top of the Astros order. Looks like that's what Philadelphia gets instead.

Joe Crede - Again, the Crede speculation won't go away. We've discussed him numerous times before, but it seems that a third baseman with his glove could really help the team, though the flashing 'Back Injury!' sign that accompanies him does prove problematic. I don't see a Crede signing swinging the 2010 season for the Astros, but he might prove useful if he's healthy.

Random group of closers (Fernando Rodney, Rafael Soriano, Mike Gonzalez, Kevin Gregg) - No one here jumps out as a great replacement for Valverde, though they all should be fairly cheap. Ed Wade has expressed interest in this group as possibilities in case they don't re-sign their own guys, but I honestly don't forsee anyone in this group really holding down a closer's job reliably next season.

Cubs Decline Arbitration To Gregg, Johnson, Harden And Chad Fox

Al — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 21:01:31 -0000

More photos » by Nam Y Huh - AP

Will Reed Johnson return? If so, it won't be under arbitration.

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The headline tells most of the story; no arbitration offers to Kevin Gregg, Reed Johnson, Rich Harden and Chad Fox -- here are a few more details from cubs.com, including this final paragraph:

The Cubs are in the market for a center fielder and could still re-sign Johnson, but if they did offer arbitration, they ran the risk of him getting a significant raise.

For the right price, I'd definitely like to see Johnson returning. A lot depends, I suppose, on other moves made first.

Cubs Not Expected To Offer Arbitration To Harden

Al — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 15:00:53 -0000

by Paul Beaty - AP

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Or Reed Johnson, Kevin Gregg, or Chad Fox, per Carrie Muskat:

A brief explanation (and I'll try to keep it simple): Teams that offer their free agents salary arbitration get Draft picks in return if the player signs elsewhere, and the number of picks is based on the player's rating. To get compensation, a team must offer arbitration to its Type A or B free agent and have that player either reject arbitration or sign before the deadline to reject the said arbitration.

The Elias Sports Bureau determines the designations based on statistical study. Gregg is a Type A free agent, Harden is Type B. Johnson and Fox are non-compensatory. So, if the Cubs did offer arbitration to Gregg and another team signed him, the Cubs could get two Draft picks. One would be a first-round pick from the signing team (if the team's pick is below the first 15 picks in the Draft) and a supplemental pick. The supplemental pick is a player taken between the first and second rounds.

If the signing team has a pick in the first 15 slots, the team that loses the free agent will get the signing team's second-round selection and the sandwich pick.A Type B free agent like Harden would be worth one Draft pick to the Cubs if he signs with another team. That pick is a supplemental pick.

I'm not quite sure how Gregg rates Type A and Harden Type B, but there it is. The Cubs clearly don't want Gregg back, so they won't offer arb even though two picks would come in return, because he'd likely accept and the Cubs would be stuck with him. Chad Fox, obviously, will likely retire. Since Reed Johnson is non-compensatory, it makes no sense to offer him arb -- if the Cubs want him back, they can negotiate with him as a complete free agent.

The official deadline is tomorrow; we'll know more by then.

Orioles considering oft-injured Ben Sheets, others?

Eli Greenspan — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 19:03:51 -0000

More photos » by Nam Y Huh - AP

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MASN.com is reporting that the Orioles will consider adding a "high risk, high reward" pitcher like Ben Sheets. The Orioles have several young players that very well could make the Orioles a contender sooner than expected.

With Matt Wieters, Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, and veteran Brian Roberts, the Orioles are poised to put up better offensive numbers than they did last season, which should benefit pitchers Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman, and Brad Bergeson.

The Orioles still have Nolan Reimold and Felix Pie, who both went on impressive streaks during the season. Still, inconsistency is a big issue.

Before adding a pitcher like Ben Sheets, who may only be able to give you 5-6 innings per start, improving the bullpen is important to making the investment worthwhile. The Orioles were 28th in the league in bullpen ERA (4.83), and could use an experienced closer to hold leads or to keep games close.

Guys like LaTroy Hawkins, Kevin Gregg, Scott Eye, or Juan Rincon would improve the inefficiencies in the bullpen.