SB Nation - Matt Clement

The Value of Prospects Revisited

Eli Greenspan — Mon, 03 Aug 2009 14:32:14 -0000

1. J.D. Drew
2. Rick Ankiel (as a pitcher)
3. Eric Chavez
4. Bruce Chen
5. Brad Penny
6. Michael Barrett
7. Ryan Anderson
8. Pablo Ozuna
9. Ruben Mateo
10. Matt Clement

Does this list mean anything to you? Joe Posnanski at Inside Baseball for SI.com tells us that it is the Baseball America's Top Ten prospect list from 10 years ago. How many guys on this list, he asks would you not have risked giving up for a superstar Cy Young pitcher? It kind of makes you think the value of prospects has gotten skewed lately in placing too much value in them. But, and it's a big but-the second 10 names on that same list include Roy Halladay, Lance Berkman and Carlos Beltran. So, trading away prospects by a team wanting to win today is always a risk.

The reason you see John Smoltz's picture in this post is to bring home the never-resolved issue of prospects-for-stars debate. In 1987 the Tigers were in a tight race but needed a proven starter to bolster their rotation. They traded prospect Smoltz for 36-year old Doyle Alexander.

He had not pitched particularly well for almost two years. He had played for eight teams in his Magellan-like career, and he played for the Yankees twice. On top of that, he was not exactly known for his clutch pitching*. There were a lot of reasons to think that Alexander would not be much of a factor.

*Alexander's postseason numbers were abominable -- he was 0-3 with a 7.65 ERA in the playoffs and World Series. And that year in the playoffs, he would get bombed in both his starts.

Instead, he was THE factor. Alexander was great -- in the regular season at least. He started 11 times in the final month and a half as Detroit and Toronto went back and forth in the standings. And ... Detroit won all 11 times he started. It was remarkable. He threw three complete-game shutouts. He punched up a 1.53 ERA. On Sept. 27, with the Tigers 2 1/2 games behind Toronto, he threw 10 2/3 innings and gave up only one earned run to beat the Blue Jays. His next start, he beat the Jays again to push the Tigers into first place to stay.

It was one of the greatest pennant race performances in the history of the game. You never want to give too much credit to one player, but Detroit won the American League East in 1987 because of the Doyle Alexander trade. There was much joy in Detroit. Then the Tigers lost the ALCS to Minnesota in five games.

The Tigers did not win the pennant that year but they undeniably got as far as they did with the sizable contribution they got from Alexander. Smoltz, of course went on to have an impressive career but he was not ready at that time to fill the role Doyle Alexander did.

The way prospects are brought along by teams now, with signing bonuses and what-not, it's not as easy to give them up unless the post-season is in sight-and even then....

This debate never ends. Feel free to weigh in with your opinions..

Opening Day

Tom Dakers — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 14:57:38 -0000

More photos » by Keith Srakocic - AP

Mr. Opening Day, Doc Halladay (AP Photo/Keith Srakocic)

Browse more photos »

Just a few hours from baseball that means something....YAY. Can't wait to see Doc throw the first pitch.

There is one bit of news from Jay land; Matt Clement has decided to retire:

"I was talking to Matty," Blue Jays general manager J.P. Ricciardi said on Sunday. "His heart wasn't in it, you could just tell. He's come back from so much. He's come a long way, and I give him credit for that. I think he was just tired of fighting, to be honest with you.

It is too bad but I think Brent Cecil and Brad Mills have likely jumped him in the line to be called up if/when needed and Wade Miller may soon pass him too. He pitched this spring like a guy afraid to challenge anyone.

Opening day, lets have a poll:

Poll

How many games will the Jays win this year?

Less than 75

13 votes

76-79

15 votes

80-83

41 votes

84-87

37 votes

88-93

36 votes

More than 94

22 votes

164 votes | Poll has closed

Division-By-Division 2009 Projected Starting Pitching Rankings By WAR: AL East

devil_fingers — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 14:00:16 -0000

Finally! We've reached the end of the series of six posts going through the MLB division by division to see who has the best projected 2009 starting pitching by Wins Above Replacement (WAR). We're finishing up today with a division that definitely doesn't get enough play on ESPN: the American League East. Are they any good when it comes to starting pitching? Read on to find out...

Sure we'll be in the thick of things. We just need Doc to throw 400 innings.

How Did I Come Up With These Numbers?

Some details on the methods used (if you don't care, you can jump straight to the main body)

FIP is used as the primary pitching stat.
The projected 2009 for each pitcher is generated by averagfing the projections of the three best publicly available projection systems: CHONE, ZiPS, and PECOTA. The projected FIP for CHONE and ZiPS are from the player pages at FanGraphs. I generated the PECOTA FIP myself from the big spreadsheet.
Playing time/depth chart projections are based on Baseball Prospectus's depth charts (not the PECOTA weighted mean) in order to account for spot starters as well. These change every week; the playing times used are those that were up when I was writing the present post.
No team only starts 5 players all year long. However, I've also included a "top 5" figure for each team, based on the top 5 projected starter WARs for each team (not the top five projected IPs).
Value is based on a Win% generated using PythagenPat in relation to a average FIP-ERA of 4.40 and an RA of 4.76.
Run values are generated by are scaling FIP to RA rather than ERA for better accuracy and to properly value pitchers with respect to hitters.
An appropriate replacement level win percentage for starting pitchers is used, adjusted for relative league difficulty: .390 is replacement level for starters in the NL, and .370 for the AL.
Adjustments for ballparks use the five-year regressed park factors used at FanGraphs.
Adjustments are made for each pitcher's influence on his run environment through a dynamic run-to-win conversion for each individual pitcher.
Starting with the AL Central post, aggregate team starter win % is listed. Important Note: that this is not directly convertible to team WAR, as it is a simple weighted average based on individual win% and IP. There will be discrepancies between team win% and team WAR, which is based on individual win % because this rough calculation occurs before individual impcat on run environment is taken into account for run-to-win conversion. WAR is the focus here. This feature is just for fun and a rough little guide to quality in relation to average. WAR is still the main focus of this series.
Neither the rates nor playing time projections are "mine." I have simply the projections, averaged them, and combined them with Baseball Prospectus's playing time predictions. You can find the complete projected lines for each pitcher at the home sites for the systems (and FanGraphs, for CHONE and ZiPS). In other words, don't blame me if you lose money betting with this stuff...

Team-By-Team

Baltimore Orioles
Player	IP	FIP	Win%	RAR	WAR
Jeremy Guthrie	170	4.61	.483	19.2	1.9
Koji Uehara	135	4.50	.494	16.7	1.6
Alfredo Simon	100	6.20	.489	-1.3	-0.1
Mark Hendrickson	100	4.55	.489	11.9	1.2
Matt Albers	110	4.51	.493	13.5	1.3
Rich Hill	100	4.82	.461	9.1	0.9
Adam Eaton	100	5.36	.411	4.1	0.4
Hayden Penn	55	5.67	.386	0.9	0.1
Brian Bass	75	4.83	.460	6.8	0.7
Christopher Tillman	45	5.39	.409	1.8	0.2
Total			.458		7.9
Top 5					6.9

Comment: The second-worst projected WAR of any team in the series (the Padres are the worst), and the worst in the AL. As you'll see, their starters don't really match up in the division too well. No one projects as league average, although Guthrie, the Alberts, and Hendrickson (Lurch!) and perhaps the mysterious Uehara could do okay in the middle of many teams rotations. Still, it's not like they're paying out a bunch of money for these guys, and a lot of them were freely acquired. There's good young talent among the position players, and I constantly read people raving about their minor league pitching talents. The front office seems to be smart, so the team will be good overall sooner rather than later, but they're going to need to score a lot of runs this season...

Toronto Blue Jays
Player	IP	FIP	Win%	RAR	WAR
Roy Halladay	210	3.35	.631	54.9	5.8
Jesse Litsch	170	4.3	.516	24.8	2.5
David Purcey	130	4.66	.478	14.0	1.4
Casey Janssen	100	3.88	.564	19.4	2.0
Scott Richmond	75	5.13	.432	4.7	0.4
Brett Cecil	70	4.16	.532	11.3	1.1
Dustin McGowan	50	4.01	.549	9.0	0.9
Matt Clement	50	5.13	.432	3.1	0.3
Bryan Bullington	60	5.23	.423	3.2	0.3
Brad Mills	50	5.50	.400	1.5	0.1
Total			.521		14.8
Top 5					12.7

Comment: Yes, it's fun to mock J. P. Ricciardi, particularly after the Adam Dunn thing, or the Vernon Wells contract, or his general thin-skinned reaction to criticism. But the truth is that although I don't care if Adam Dunn "likes baseball" or not, that Moneyball was written a long time ago, and Adam Dunn is actually an above-average player at best, since he can't catch the ball (as anyone watching the U.S.A.-Japan WBC game can attest) to save his life. I'm beginning to agree more and more with Sky Kalkman in seeing Ricciardi as one of the more underrated GMs in the game. Most defensive systems had the Jays as one of the best defensive teams in the league last season, and their pitching was monstrous.. but we aren't here to talk about J. P. or defense, but starting pitching. And the truth is... A. J. Burnett is gone. Shaun Marcum was great last year, but is recovering frrom Tommy John now. Dustin McGowan was good, and has a nice projection here, but he's hurt (again)... With Tampa Bay making it a "Big Three" in the division, the Jays probably need to hit the reset button. Heck, if Jake Peavy can be all the rage, what would Roy Halladay (who's worth about twice what he's being paid the next two seasons) fetch? He's one of my favorite players not on my favorite team, and it would hurt, but if they could trade him for, say, half of the Rangers top prospects (I don't know, I'm just speculating) or something, maybe it's time. I don't know about Casey Janssen's numbers, as he was a reliever previously. Lot's of young guys and cheap pickups. So there's long-term possbility here. It's an above-average group, and before mocking J. P., keep in mind that while this group doesn't look good against the division, the "Top Five" by themselves project with more WAR than any single team in total in the AL Central...

Boston Red Sox
Player	IP	FIP	Win%	RAR	WAR
Josh Beckett	190	3.58	.611	45.8	4.8
Daisuke Matsuzaka	170	4.03	.556	31.7	3.2
Tim Wakefield	130	4.92	.461	11.9	1.1
Jon Lester	170	4.19	.537	28.5	2.9
Brad Penny	130	4.37	.518	19.2	1.9
Clay Buchholz	75	4.08	.550	13.5	1.4
John Smoltz	85	3.54	.615	20.9	2.2
Michael Bowden	25	4.52	.502	3.3	0.3
Total			.549		17.7
Top 5					14.9

Comment: Hey, it's the lovable underdogs! Not much to say here -- it's a great group of starters. I'm sure people doubt Buchholz's numbers, but I'm just passing along an average of projection systems. You may find Josh Beckett obnoxious, but he's still a monster pitcher, and chances are that his luck will even out this season. Matzusaka is good, but 4.03 FIP hardly screams "ace." Overrated. It will be interesting to see what Smoltz and Penny give them. Smart upside signings. Love the the Sox or hate them, you have to hand it to Epstein, et. al.

New York Yankees
Player	IP	FIP	Win%	RAR	WAR
CC Sabathia	220	3.27	.638	59.1	6.3
A.J. Burnett	200	3.74	.577	41.5	4.3
Andy Pettitte	180	3.98	.548	32.1	3.2
Chien-Ming Wang	140	3.94	.553	25.6	2.6
Joba Chamberlain	140	3.30	.634	36.9	3.9
Philip Hughes	70	4.00	.545	12.3	1.2
Ian Kennedy	65	4.42	.497	8.3	0.8
Total			.582		22.3
Top 5					20.2

Comment: Speaking of love/hate... Yikes. I'm sure you're looking at this with some skepticism, but when only one of a team's top 7 starting pitchers projects as below average, and he's slated to get 65 innings, I think they're probably going to OK. I wonder if they're willing to give up Hughes up for cheap, since he looks like a guy who could easily be the #2 on a lot of teams. The Pettitte signing again looks like another smart bargain, although he'll need the shaky Yankees defense to help him out more than they did last season (4.54 ERA versus 3.71 FIP). I'm not sure about A.J. Burnett getting 200 IPs, but I've stuck with Clay Davenport this far, so I can't change anything about it now. I just don't know if Chamberlain should be a starter or reliever. He's only projected for 3.9 WAR this season. I wonder how many relievers were that valuable in 2008?

Tampa Bay ~~Devil~~ Rays
Player	IP	FIP	Win%	RAR	WAR
Scott Kazmir	170	3.80	.560	32.4	3.3
James Shields	200	3.80	.560	38.1	3.9
Matt Garza	165	4.19	.514	23.8	2.4
Andre Sonnanstine	180	4.20	.512	25.6	2.5
David Price	135	4.40	.491	16.3	1.6
Jeff Niemann	55	4.91	.438	3.7	0.4
James Houser Jr.	25	5.98	.349	-0.5	0.0
Wade Davis	34	5.11	.419	1.7	0.2
Total			.516		14.1
Top 5					13.7

Comment: The (AL) champ always enters last. Unless it's Hulk Hogan versus Randy Savage at Wrestlemania V, as Jesse Ventura angrily pointed out at the time. As if their AL pennant wasn't enough, having only a few guys on this list in itself is a sign of the Rays "arrival." If you look back, over these posts, the teams with more guys listed as getting SP time having lower WARs, in general,, probably because they're so unstable that it's hard to say who will start. The Rays may not be as "high up there" as you might thing, but 14.1 WAR and a .516 win% say this is another rotaiton that would be the best or second-best in a number of other divisions No clear "ace" here, but 3-4 guys who look like #2 pitchers. It's not only balanced, but all these guys are young and locked up for a while. Another thing about young guys is that they are more likely to make dramatic leaps in performance from year-to-year....

AL East Projected SP WAR
Rank	Team	Total SP WAR	Top 5 WAR	Win%
1	Yankees	22.3	20.2	.582
2	Red Sox	17.7	14.9	.549
3	Blue Jays	14.8	12.7	.521
4	Rays	14.1	13.7	.516
5	Orioles	7.9	6.9	.458
Total		76.8	68.4

Final Thoughts: It's probably not very surprising that the best division in baseball has the strongest starting pitching. The Orioles are an exception here, and they are dreadful (when it comes to SP for the 2009 season), which only serves to underscore who good the other teams are. The NL West is the closest, but after the Diamondbacks' and Giants' great rotations, there's a real drop-off. The Yankees' advantage is concentrated on the top to a certain extent, and perhaps Hughes and Kennedy are overrated by the projections, but when your fill-in guys could be #3 on a number of teams, you're doing OK. The Sox have questions, but a lot of upside, too. The Jays and Rays are interchangable, with the Jays having Halladay, who is as good as anyone is baseball, and the Rays having a very balanced group. To repeat -- the "Top Five" of the top four teams in this division all have a higher projected WAR than any team in the AL Central. That's not meant as a slam on the Central. These are five teams that are well-run in general (or getting there), even those with bad offense (the Blue Jays) or bad pitching (Orioles). The media may spend too much time on the division (or, more precisely, the Yankees and Red Sox), but they're the class of baseball for a reason.

The Needle's the Same That Recorded And Played: Saturday Morning Jays Talk

hugo — Sat, 28 Mar 2009 12:46:14 -0000

Hope everyone is enjoying their weekend so far. I love that picture of the two Blue Jays, it looks so much like they are talking to one another. I figure what better picture for a Saturday morning installment of Jays Talk.

B.J. Ryan, about whom the Jays have shown concern amidst the drop of velocity in his pitches, managed a scoreless inning yesterday against the Pittsburgh Pirates. That said, Ryan was again clocked in the mid 80s and topped out at 85 m.p.h. Ryan didn't have anything to say after the game, but Cito Gaston said he was happy with Ryan's performance:

"I thought he did well," said Gaston, who had yet to see Ryan's pitch readings. "I'm encouraged by it. I'm glad to see him get out of that inning, and it can't be anything but confidence for him. Like I've said about B.J., I really like him in the sense that, when he goes out there, he gives you everything he has no matter what happens. He never quits on you."

I'm just hoping this works itself out. Ryan has never been a flamethrower, but there aren't many closers that throw 85.

Matt Clement has decided to accept the Jays' assignment to AAA. As I discussed earlier this week in a Pixies-inspired post, I think it's a good move both for Clement and for the Jays. Clement has a very good chance of pitching in the majors this season, and the Jays get some much needed depth who can protect their young arms if things don't develop as expected or hoped.

Jeff Blair has a nice article in today's Globe about Lyle Overbay's hitting. It may just be spring feel-good stuff, but a good season from Overbay at the plate would go a long way this season, as Blair notes. Blair mentions that, at the moment, both Overbay and third basemen Scott Rolen are showing a lot of cause for confidence. I agree.

Richard Griffin, on the other hand, pins the Jays' chances on Vernon Wells in an article where Wells acknowledges that he is trying to play the role that Carlos Delgado played on the 2003 Jays, anchoring the lineup and forcing pitchers to go after the players hitting above them in the lineup.

Scott Richmond starts for the Jays this afternoon against the Tigers. Richmond has a good chance of making the team, but he still needs to go out and pitch well. It should be interesting.

Only 9 days left until the real games begin!

Wednesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Wed, 25 Mar 2009 13:31:54 -0000

Some things to read while celebrating Gorman's birthday.

To be honest, I was going to open the Mug today with a joke about Anthony Witrado, especially since his chat yesterday provided ample ammunition, but I think it might be time to back off a bit. I'm getting increasingly concerned that our discussions about Witrado are becoming far too personal, and I think it might be time for me to step in.

Let me be the first to acknowledge that I'm not a fan of Witrado's work in the least. His work is consistently inaccurate and the quality of his writing is significantly below what one would expect from a professional working for a large newspaper. At one point a couple of weeks ago I asked around and received no one to compare him to, meaning it's possible he's major league baseball's worst beat writer.

With that said, the conversation about him over the last week or so has crossed a line I'm not comfortable with. I doubt we're done criticizing his work in this space, and that's fine, but if you intend to do it, I'd appreciate it if the criticism was focused on his work and the personal attacks were dropped. Thanks.

Moving on, a rumor popped up yesterday suggesting the Brewers may be interested in Jake Peavy (as noted in this FanPost), but the rumor was quickly squashed by Tom H. and Doug Melvin. As Tom H. notes, even if the Brewers had a package of players the Padres were interested in and Peavy was willing to waive his no trade clause, it's unlikely the Brewers would be willing or able to pick up Peavy's salary at this point, unless players like Mike Cameron, Bill Hall or Jeff Suppan were involved in the trade.

Ryan Braun is expected back in Brewer camp today and, assuming his sore intercostal isn't giving him any trouble, he could be back in the Brewer lineup today. It sounds like the team wants to get him as many at bats as possible over the last week or so of camp, which could limit the at bats for some of the other corner outfielders in camp.

In yesterday's Mug I mentioned a note from Tom H. suggesting the Brewers were considering keeping their players who were out of options over players who still had options, simply to avoid having to put players on waivers. That idea hasn't been very popular around the Brewer blogosphere, with both PocketDoppler and View From Bernie's Chalet weighing in against it.

I don't think anyone will be opposed to better production from Craig Counsell. Counsell has abandoned his "human question mark" batting stance and leads the Brewers in batting average and OBP this spring.

At least one of the position battles in camp is over, as Todd Coffey has won a job in the bullpen. With the way things are headed right now, he may get a chance to close.

It looks like Manny Parra's back stiffness isn't going to turn out to be serious: Parra threw a bullpen session and should be ready to go for his scheduled start Friday.

Braden Looper will take the mound for the first time in the Cactus League on Thursday. Adam McCalvy has a story about Looper's family and their newest addition, a soon-to-be two year old Chinese orphan named Gracyn.

While adopting may be a dream for some, Keep Turning Up The Heat! is dreaming about Rickie Weeks, 600 foot home runs, and retirement. In a semi-related note, MLB FanHouse says Don't Sleep on the Brewers in 2009.

In other camps:

Blue Jays: Matt Clement has been cut from major league camp, but may refuse the assignment and become a free agent.
Mets: Freddy Garcia will remain with the team and report to minor league camp.
Rays: David Price will open the 2009 season in the minors.
Red Sox: Signed Rocky Cherry to a minor league deal. The Mets had selected him from the Orioles in the Rule 5 Draft.

So, what about the Cubs? They're widely considered the front runner, and in some places they're considered a lock to win the NL Central in 2009. FanGraphs organizational rankings have them at #7. (The Brewers have made the top 6.) With that said, it appears I'm not the only one who thinks they could be in line for a major disappointment in 2009. Miller Park Drunk lists some of the concerns they face.

The Marlins will get their new stadium after all, and will become the Miami Marlins in 2012. All of that is great, but Babes Love Baseball asks the same question I want answered: Even in a new stadium, will anyone come to their games?

The internet based community mourns a great loss this morning. John Brattain, who had written for several sites, passed away yesterday due to complications from heart surgery. He was 43. As I paged through the news and blogs this morning I've found dozens of mentions of his passing, which demonstrates how many lives he touched. Here are two, from Baseball Digest Daily and The Hardball Times. The BDD one includes links to several more.

Drink up.

Cease to Exist, Given My Goodbyes: Clement Demoted

hugo — Tue, 24 Mar 2009 16:10:08 -0000

Richard Griffin reports that Matt Clement has been assigned to minor-league camp, leaving three men in the running to break camp in the Jays' rotation: Brad Mills, who pitches Thursday, Ricky Romero, who threw reasonably effectively yesterday against the Reds (nice John Lennon reference there, Wilner!), and Scott Richmond, who Griffin feels is the odd man out. I'm not so sure about that myself, and neither is Wilner.

Clement has not yet decided whether he will accept the minor-league assignment:

"Trying to give you any insight would be premature," Clement said, with resignation in his voice.

I think two things. First, I'm not sure there is another team that gives Clement a better chance than the Jays of pitching his way into the rotation. Second, even though I haven't been too optimistic about Clement pitching effectively in the majors again, I hope he sticks around. He hasn't been great this spring, but other than his last outing he hasn't been terrible. We don't know how Janssen's progress will go or when, for different reasons, he, McGowan, and/or Cecil will be ready to pitch in the majors. If the Jays go with Mills and/or Romero, neither one with much of a track record, and they flame out, we have Richmond, but I'd much prefer Clement as an option to Brian Burres or Mike Maroth. Clement hasn't pitched in an incredibly long time, so it's worth a little more time to see if he can put his game back together. Even if he's not pitching well in the minors, I'd much rather throw him into the rotation than have a struggling Romero, Mills, or Cecil trying to pitch at the major league level or a batting practice arm out there.

Spring Game Recap, Jays Lose To Reds

Tom Dakers — Mon, 23 Mar 2009 21:13:38 -0000

Jays 0 Reds 3

Ricky Romero, is suddenly back in the mix for one of the two open starting rotation jobs. Ricky didn't do too bad, going 5 innings, allowing 7 hits, 2 walks, 2 runs and struck out 5. After the crappy start for Clement yesterday and Janssen's shoulder soreness, even a fairly average start for Ricky helps his chance. Brian Burres pitched 2 scoreless innings and Jeremy Accardo pitched 1 inning, gave up a single and triple and a run.

Offensively we did almost nothing: Aaron Hill was 2 for 3 and stole a base. Scott Rolen was 1 for 2 with a triple. Wells had a single in 3 times up and Raul Chavez was 1 for 2.

Notable ofers: Joe Inglett was 0 for 4 and is hitting .211, getting harder to make a case for him. Alex Rios was 0 for 2 with a walk. Johnny Mac was 0 for 2 and is hitting a big .143. Randy Ruiz and Aaron Matthews were 0 for 3 but then they aren't going to make the team anyway.

Tomorrow David Purcey starts as the Jays play the Phillies. Marco Scutaro is back from the WBC and will play tomorrow and Travis Snider who missed some time with a sore knee will play, The game is on Gameday audio tomorrow so we'll get to listen in.

In other news, Curt Schilling and Corey Koskie have each annouced their retirement. I'm sorry about Koskie, he apparently dove for a ball in a spring game and felt nauseous after. Add in that his 6 year old son suffered a concussion in football game and he figured it was a sign that he ought to quit. It is really too bad, I was just talking to someone that knew him from Manitoba a couple of weeks ago, saying what a great guy he is. At 34 he's too young to retire but he did have a good career.

When I Lived Alone Is There a Ghost in My House? Recap: Twins 11, Jays 6

hugo — Sun, 22 Mar 2009 20:44:35 -0000

Well, I posted earlier about the Jays' many rotation options and you'll notice that I didn't say very much about Matt Clement. Today, Clement put forth the best explanation of why that was with an ugly performance and the Jays dropped the game, 11-6.

Clement was awful, walking 7 hitters over 4 1/3 innings, many of them guys like Nick Punto and Denard Span who do not need to be pitched around. Clement has never had a great feel for the strike zone and while that is sometime forgiveable when you can come back with consistent strikeouts, it won't work with the type of pitcher Matt will need to be now if he is to pitch effectively in the majors. And it didn't work, Clement gave up 9 runs, 1 of which was unearned (it was Clement's error) and just generally didn't at all look like the type of pitcher you want to have pitching for you in the major leagues, let alone the AL East. Jerry, Wilner, and Alan all pretty much agreed that Clement pitched his way out of the rotation picture (at least, insofar as the start of the season is concerned) with his performance and I can't say I disagree. Obviously you can't judge everything by one appearance, but it's not as if this is the first time this spring that Clement has struggled to throw strikes.

Scott Richmond had the unenviable task of warming up quickly and coming in the middle of a monster inning for the Twins, and he got off to a shaky start, giving up some solid hits and 2 additional runs before getting out of the inning. Richmond had an interesting outing - he gave up 9 hits in his 3 2/3 innings, many of them well-hit, but managed 3 scoreless innings after that first inning. Richmond was helped by the fact that he didn't walk anyone and struck out 5 over his 3 2/3 innings. Not a command performance, but with Clement exploding, Richmond seems very likely to make the rotation and I don't think he did anything at all today to hurt his chances. I do have a little bit of a Towers-like feeling about him, though, especially after today's outing - that he's a little too hittable and his good-looking K/BB ratio will always belie that fact - anyone else get that feeling? - but, Towers had some success with the Jays before falling apart so you never know.

Offensively, there were some good performances. Adam Lind continues to heat up; he was 2-3 today with an RBI double. Michael Barrett had 2 more hits, including a very nice piece of hitting to come up with a 2-out RBI single. And some of the kids also showed what they could do: Brad Emaus had an RBI double; Scott Campbell had an RBI single to plate the Jays' first run, hit the ball squarely all day, and made what sounded like a great diving play at third base; Justin Jackson took advantage of some playing time to go 2-4 with a very well hit double and two runs scored; and Moses Sierra was 2-2 with a double and an RBI. David Cooper also doubled in his only plate appearance.

Ricky Romero, who, yes, is still in camp and who Cito says still has a chance of making the team, will make the start tomorrow against the Reds. Mike Wilner had a short interview with Romero after the game and he is very soft-spoken. He has reportedly pitched well in B and minor-league games after having some control problems in a couple of Grapefruit League appearances, so he hopes to let his pitching speak for him tomorrow afternoon.

54-46 What's My Number: Looking at Rotation Spots, and the Jays' Rotation, by tRA+

hugo — Sun, 22 Mar 2009 16:02:08 -0000

So with lots of focus on the battle for the Jays' rotation, I thought it'd make sense to look at what teams are actually getting from these different rotation spots and what the Jays might be able to expect. And what better way to introduce a number-centric post than with a classic song by the great Toots and the Maytals?

If you've never heard of tRA, it's discussed here. The purpose is to get one metric that really tells us how good a pitcher is. ERA is a good measure of a pitcher's past value but is way too dependent on context and chance to be a good predictor, and FIP and its variants only take strikeouts, walks, and home runs into account. tRA takes into account other things such as batted ball data - since not every batted ball has the same possibility of creating a run. tRA+ is normalized for league average so that a 105 tRA+ is 5% better than the average pitcher.

Anyway, here are the ranges for different spots in the rotation, based on the work from the good folks at Lookout Landing and Stat Corner:

119 and up: #1 Starter

107-118: #2 Starter

96-106: #3 Starter

87-95: #4 Starter

76 - 86: #5 Starter

Now, of course, these are for spots in the rotation over the full course of the season, not for individual starters who line up in those spots at the beginning of the year. That is to say, pitchers get hurt a lot, and often their replacements are not as good as they are. For a team like the Jays, though, with many rotation candidates and some minor-leaguers who could be ready to come in and do a nice job, that's not necessarily a bad thing.

Last season, Doc put up a tRA+ of 134. He also pitched almost 250 innings. That's incredibly valuable in this type of analysis (and really, let's face it, any type of analysis) in that it is way above the threshold for what's considered a #1 pitcher and his innings actually would bleed over into the #2 slot. While he might not replicate that performance in 2009, he's a good bet to throw at least 200 innings and to continue to be better than the average ace. Slot one solved.

In slot two, things get tricky. Shaun Marcum and A.J. Burnett were both above-average #2 starters last season (actually, by tRA+, Burnett was right on the cusp of beng an ace), but they're both out of the picture for this season. Jesse Litsch is projected to be the Jays #2 starter and he was no more than a solid #3 (103) by tRA+. Since we know Litsch actually put up great numbers last season, tRA suggests that he is a regression candidate for 2009 in terms of results. Litsch would have to raise his game a little to come within the #2 starter band - not an impossible feat considering he improved quite a bit last season and is now entering his third season as a starter. I would also say that Doc is enough above average for the number 1 spot to balance out Litsch's presence in the number 2 spot, all other things considered equal. There was a time when I would've included the possibility that Dustin McGowan, another guy in the #2 starter band last season, would contribute to the Jays #2 spot this season, but that's now not looking likely. I think we'd better leave him out of this part of the equation.

In the #3 spot, David Purcey had a 97 tRA+ last season. That's in the band for number 3 starters, albeit on the low end. However, I think it's reasonable to expect some improvement from Purcey this year - plus if you remove his spot starts and just look at when he was a regular member of the rotation, he immediately becomes a fine number 3. It's tough to predict what Purcey will do this season; however, this spring, he has been throwing strikes, and that will go a long way to his success in 2009. Even if he replicates his performance from last season, we're in the ballpark. So far, so good.

Now for the really tricky part. Some combination of Matt Clement, Scott Richmond, Brad Mills, Casey Janssen, Dustin McGowan, Brett Cecil, Wade Miller, Shawn Hill (who the Jays are apparently ready to sign), Ricky Romero, and probably some others are going to need to fire some innings at a below-league-average but not completely terrible rate. Looking at those numbers, this seems possible but it's hard to predict as it's looking likely that many different hurlers will get to try their hand.

For example, Scott Richmond had a 141 tRA+ last season in 5 starts. Tiny sample size, I know, but there it is. Can he be an average number 4 starter? Looking at those numbers, it's tough to say he can't be. Casey Janssen is still on track to pitch for the Jays as a starter this season, and Janssen had a 104 tRA+ as a starter in 2006 - actually, it would make him an above-average #3 starter. That would be more than good enough for one of the two back-end spots in the rotation. While it's true that Janssen is coming off major surgery, we should also point out that that was his first taste of the majors and that he was pitching through a back injury for a good part of that time. Dustin McGowan had a 108 tRA+ last season in what was a bit of a lost year. I know we can't count on him coming back and pitching as well, but if he is able to do so, even for a few months after the all-star break, that will go a long way.

Brad Mills and Brett Cecil look close to ready to contribute too - I'm personally not sold on Mills until he demonstrates he can pitch at a high level for at least half a season, but the Jays love him and there must be a reason for that. Cecil would probably stack up as an above-average starter this season if given the chance, and it looks very likely that he will be pitching with the Jays for a significant portion of the season. And Ricky Romero is still hanging around and could contribute.

As for the reclamation projects, over the course of the season its not asking too much to think they can be as good as an average 5th starter. The bar isn't very high, and the Jays have nothing invested in any of them so if they're not pitching well, the Jays won't hesitate to move them along.

Put it this way, for the 4th spot, the composite doesn't even have to be as good as Purcey was last season, and I think the Jays are a lot more comfortable with their options this year than they were in the middle of last season when they threw Purcey into the fire. At the least, they have a lot more options to try. For the 5th spot, the composite just needs to avoid abject disaster, and the Jays should be able to do between their mix of veterans who used to be good and young pitchers who might not be perfectly ready but have promise.

All in all, even with recent setbacks to Janssen and McGowan, I think it's reasonable to expect the Jays to have an average starting rotation. That is, if Doc, Litsch, and Purcey stay healthy. Doc is Doc and Litsch seems pretty durable to me (he pitched almost 200 innings between AAA and the Jays last season and was going deeper into games by the end). Purcey could be an injury risk, given that he threw a lot more last season (182 innings) than ever before. If he were to go down, particularly early in the season when Janssen, McGowan, and Cecil might not be ready to step in, our rotation could be exposed.

One other factor that we haven't discussed is that tRA doesn't take into account the quality of a team's defense. In the case of the Jays, it's a very good defense that isn't being taken into account, both at avoiding unearned runs (second-least errors in the AL last season) and, more importantly, converting batted balls into outs. In fact, as we'll discuss soon, there's every chance that the Jays' defense could be even better this season. The defense won't help the pitchers tRA numbers, but it will help limit runs scored such that you might expect that even if the Jays starters are slightly below average, as a group, in tRA, the defense will compensate and actually make the Jays' starters better than average at actually preventing runs. That said, last season, Doc, Marcum, and Litsch overperformed their tRA, while Burnett, McGowan, and Purcey underperformed it. Litsch is an example of someone who could profit from this - while his numbers in isolation peg him as a number 3 starter, as a groundballer there's a possibility that the Jays' defense could help him get results in line with a good number two starter. In fact, that's exactly what happened last season.

Of course we know that the Jays have to be better than merely average to reach their goal of making the playoffs, particularly in the AL East. While they have many options who could provide average performances from the pitching mound in a starting role, only Doc looks prepared to give them the real above-average performance that teams need to make a playoff push.

My Body is a Cage: Janssen Has Mild Muscle Strain; Will Resume Throwing in 3 Days

hugo — Sat, 21 Mar 2009 11:55:33 -0000

Casey Janssen, who left thursday night's game with tightness in his throwing shoulder, had an MRI which revealed that, for now, he's essentially fine. The MRI revealed a very slight muscle strain unrelated to his labrum troubles in 2008. Janssen will take 3 days off and then can start throwing again, which will also mean he will miss at least his next start.

Since Casey was supposed to go 60 pitches on Thursday (he obviously didn't), there's essentially no way he'll be ready for the 100 pitches for which Arnsberg had him planned by the start of the season. That said, if he doesn't have a further setback, he could certainly be ready for starting duty sometime in April. But we haven't seen enough of him yet to know one way or the other, so I think the Jays will have to move on without him in making their 4th and 5th starter selections. The next installment of the competition will feature both Clement and Richmond, who are scheduled to pitch on Sunday against the Twins. Later this weekend, we will take an in-depth look at what a team really needs out of different spots in the starting rotation. My hopes are that it will be interesting.

In the meantime, check out the latest "Know Thy Enemy" featuring the Tampa Bay Rays.

In a further wrinkle for the battle for the Jays' starting rotation, the Jays are negotiating with 27-year old pitcher Shawn Hill, who was recently released by the Washington Nationals. Hill is a native of Mississauga, Ontario. While being released by the woeful Nats is never a career-enhancing event, Hill's problems have lied more in the stars, that is to say, injuries, than in himself or his abilities. He has had a whole host of arm problems and they've continued into the spring, where he has had some forearm soreness. He did pitch a shutout inning earlier this week and had 2 Ks and reportedly felt fine afterward. Hill had a nice season with the Nats in 2007, where he was able to make 16 starts and had a 3.42 ERA with 65 Ks and 25 Ks over 97 innings. It's a good move for the Jays, who can use the depth and it's a good situation for the native son to try to revive his career. Of course, I can't imagine Hill will immediately move into contention for a starting job; he'll have to pitch himself into contention.

Today's post from the Arcade Fire song off the great record Neon Bible. It seemed ridiculously appropriate given the content of the post.