SB Nation - Joe Nelson

Free Agent Profile: LaTroy Hawkins

davoag — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 16:49:55 -0000

by David J. Phillip - AP

Will the Hawk be back in Houston?

We already covered the basics of the reliever market with Jose Valverde's profile, so I thought the most illuminating thing to do with Hawkins is to see which teams might actually need a closer this winter. That, of course, is going to be the difference in him signing for 5-7 million and 2-3 million.

Hawkins has saved almost exactly the same number of games in the American League (44) as in the National League (43). Heading into his Age 37 season, he's probably not looking at more than a two-year deal and probably only a one-year contract.

Will it be a big deal if the Astros don't sign Valverde or Hawkins this winter? It will, but only because that's likely the only move they will make this winter. With the news that the Braves are shopping both Derek Lowe and Javier Vasquez, why wouldn't the Astros move on one of those guys instead? I'd rather have 200 innings in the starting rotation than 50 in the back of the bullpen. Remember the Cardinals went into last season with no closer at all and found one in Ryan Franklin (after a bumpy start to the season). Why couldn't the Astros do something similar? Throw Fulchino, Gervacio, Chad Paronto and any other cheap, hard thrower you want at the wall and see who sticks.

A quick note: I wrote up a quick scouting report of Jason Castro's AFL Rising Stars performance, for those who didn't get to see him on my minor league blog, Minor Musings. I'll avoid reposting by just directing you that way, if you are so inclined. At any rate, here are the teams who could be in the market for a closer...

Atlanta Braves

2009 saves: Rafael Soriano (27), Mike Gonzalez (10)

Notes: With both Soriano and Gonzalez becoming free agents, the Braves may be in the market for a closer. Of course, they also have a ridiculous amount of pitching depth, so they may end up picking up a closer in a trade for Vasquez or Lowe. Don't rule out converting a guy like Jo-Jo Reyes into the role of closer as well.

Baltimore Orioles

2009 saves: George Sherrill (20), Jim Johnson (10)

Notes: Johnson took over the closer's role once Sherrill was traded to the Dodgers, but it's anyone's guess whether the Orioles will keep him there. McPhail has not been shy about pursuing the top names on the market and could make a play for Valverde. It's more likely that the Orioles fill this gap from in-house guys, though.

Detroit Tigers

2009 saves: Fernando Rodney (37), Brandon Lyon (3)

Notes: Like the Braves, both Rodney and Lyon are free agents. Also like the Braves, the Tigers have a couple of candidates to fill the void. Remember Joel Zumaya? After three straight years of throwing less than 34 innings, he's probably not a great candidate to land the closer role, but he is still just 24 years old and has potential. I could see the Tigers investing in a mid-tier guy with a one-year deal. Maybe someone like Billy Wagner?

Tampa Bay Rays

2009 saves: J.P. Howell (17), Randy Choate (5), Grant Balfour (4), Troy Percival (6), Joe Nelson (3)

Notes: As you can see, the Rays definitely went with a closer-by-committee approach last season. I'm not sure what payroll flexibility they will have this offseason, but if they do have money to spend, it definitely makes sense for them to find a back-end bullpen guy. Competing in the AL East, they need a solid closer and don't have one right now.

Toronto Blue Jays

2009 saves: Jason Frasor (11), Scott Downs (9), B.J. Ryan (2)

Notes: With the transition at the top of the organization, I doubt the Blue Jays make a splash in free agency again for a closer. This isn't a bad situation due to free agents leaving as much as guys just not performing. Look for one of the Jays young pitchers to be slotted into this role next year. Either that or a trade for a guy like Matt Lindstrom from the Marlins.

Other teams possibly shopping: Arizona (depending how they view Qualls), Cincinnati (Only if they move Cordero), Colorado (Huston Street is arb-eligible), Washington (McDougald had hip surgery).

All in all, there are just not that many spots open for closers. It's a bad offseason for guys like Valverde and Hawkins. I'd expect at least one of them to stick with the Astros, but I'm not sure which one the team values more at this point.

A Guide To Some Relevant Minor League Free Agents

Sam Page — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 15:00:27 -0000

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In 2009, the Mets were bereft of minor league depth. It was painfully obvious looking at Buffalo's performance and it became a major issue when injuries struck. Despite what some claim, however, developing prospects is not the only way to build good farm systems. Often those fringe players that never quite breakthrough to the show are the most integral parts of a successful minor league team. So going off this list, here's some MiFA of interest:

RHP Phil Humber: I actually think Humber is a pretty bad pitcher, but need to mention him before everyone gets nostalgic. Humber was, of course, the former Mets top prospect out of Rice that was supposed to join Mike Pelfrey at the top of the Mets rotation eventually--that was, before he had Tommy John Surgery. Somehow included in the Johan Santana deal, Humber pitched really poorly for the Twins in AAA. The only real reason to bring him back would be a show of goodwill and sympathy from the Mets. Don't hold out hope for that lost potential.

IF/OF Wilson Betemit: The top-prospect-turned-super-sub Betemit probably has his best days behind him, even at age 28. He comes from the Mark DeRosa mold in that he has experience at virtually every position, but is good at none of them. And while he hasn't hit very well of late, his interesting blend of power and plate discipline and major-league track record could make him worth a flier at AAA. Personally, I might opt for better infield defense behind the Mets young developing pitchers, but few others on that list can claim being an average major league hitter over their career.

RHP Bryan Bullington: One of many infamous first round busts in the Pirate's recent draft history, this first-overall pick has some upside as a reliever. In 38 relief innings for Las Vegas last season, Bullington had a 43:7 K:BB ratio in 38.1 innings pitched. He also can be as a serviceable AAA starter, but any chance of him making the bigs is as a part of the bullpen. A good guy to have around.

LHP Brian Burres: A long-time Baltimore farm hand, Burres has the stuff to be a mid-rotation AAA guy and a #7 or 8 on an organizational depth chart. Sub-par control and a horrible 2008 with the Orioles will likely prevent him from ever earning another extended stay in the majors.

RHP R.A. Dickey:

Pros:

Went to my high school
throws the knuckleball
the only article I ever wrote for my high school newspaper was about him

Cons:

not as good as Tim Wakefield

Dickey is the rare pitcher who is seemingly improving with age. He started using the knuckleball full-time in 2007, a season in which he was the Pacific Coast League MVP. Last year he had modest success as a reliever with the Twins. Knuckleball pitchers are great because they can pitch a million innings without getting tired and because they throw the knuckleball.

3B/OF Joe Dillon: At age 33, Joe's showing some signs of decline, but with the way he's been jerked around between the majors and minors recently, I wonder whether it's genuine slowing down or just not getting settled in one place. He is one of those AAAA sluggers that makes minor league baseball fun to watch--three times in his minor league career he's had a 1000+ OPS. He's a pretty decent fielding thirdbaseman to boot. This year he was the "last man" on the Rays bench, and he could easily reprise that role with the Mets, or be big boost to the Bisons.

RHP Geoff Geary: Geary is a control-specialist reliever who has had some major league PT recently with the Astros and Phillies. He's not someone I want in the Mets bullpen, but Buffalo could use him.

OF Mitch Jones: .354, .320. Those two numbers are Mitch Jones' Isolated Power in the past two seasons. Sure, he played in a friendly home ballpark in Albuquerque, but a .651 SLG% travels. You could make an argument that Jones is better suited for a starting job on the Mets than Daniel Murphy or Jeff Francoeur.

LHP Royce Ring: Ya'll know Royce. Lefty with the funky motion. I'd take him back on a minor league deal, considering the state of the Mets' bullpen.

LHP Jon Switzer: He pitched pretty well for Buffalo out of the bullpen this year (3.85 tRA). He would be a solid re-sign.

1B Chris Shelton: Like a right-handed Chris Carter, Chris Shelton is another AAAA slugger the Bison's stagnant offense could certainly use. Last year with Tacoma, he OPSed .905 at age 29. With Chris Carter already here, however, he may be "blocked." And as you've probably suspected, I'd gladly platoon him with Murphy, Carter, or Ike Davis, if given the chance.

LHP R.J. Swindle: Of all the pitchers I've talked about so far, Swindle is easily the most desirable. He'll be just 26 next season and has fantastic minor league peripherals 9.0 K/9, 1.8 BB/9. He's got forgettable stuff: a low 80s fastball and curveball that is basically an eephus, but he's always put up great numbers and killed lefties. Chad Bradford II?

RHP Joe Nelson: The Rays signed Joe for $1MM after a fantastic '08 with the Marlins. He proved a bad investment with horrible command, but might be served well by a return to the NL East. The Mets were reportedly interested in him as a Major League piece last year, and at the very least would be a great AAA option.

C Guillermo Quiroz: A former top-50 prospect, Quiroz has evolved into a minor league catcher with a sterling defensive reputation, good pop, and poor on-base skills. Basically, he's Omir Santos. I am not even sure Omir Santos is even better than him. In fact, Omir Santos was the Orioles' AAA catcher when Quiroz was their Major League backup. That says more about how poor and ill-equipped for a starting gig Santos is, than how good Quiroz is. But if you're going to entrust Omir Santos with a roster spot, might as well keep his clone as a backup in AAA.

Why The Rays Should Target Kiko Calero

Tommy Rancel — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 10:00:42 -0000

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Once upon a time Kiko Calero was a pretty good reliever for the St. Louis Cardinals. In 2003 he posted an FIP of 3.71 with a tRA of 4.45. He was even better in 2004 with a 3.14 FIP and a very good 3.32 tRA. He was traded to the Oakland A's in the Mark Mulder deal.

Over the next three seasons' in Oakland he posted FIPs of 3.58, 2.97 and 4.37 to go along with tRA of 3.89, 3.27, 4.58. After his average showing in 2007 (4.37/4.58) which might be explained by the next part of this sentence, Calero started the 2008 season on the DL with a rotator cuff injury. He pitched just five games for the A's in 08 and was DFA, released and scooped up by the Rangers. He pitched 18 games for their Triple-A affiliate, but never made it back to the big leagues.

In case you haven't noticed, Calero is back in the big leagues and back to his old ways in South Florida.

Right under our noses, Calero pitched 60 innings for the Marlins in 2009 and posted a 2.56 FIP along with a ridiculous 2.49 tRA. His strikeouts per nine were back over 10 for the first time since 2006.

	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	HR/FB
2005	8.41	2.91	0.97	8.6
2006	10.4	3.72	0.62	6.1
2007	6.86	4.65	0.66	4.9
2009	10.35	4.5	0.15	1.4

*excluding 2008 due to 4.2 innings of Major League work.

Good K rates and acceptable walk rates for the amount of strikeouts. The one thing that instantly jumps out to me is the ridiculously low HR/9 and insanely low HR/FB% this past season. As a predominately flyball pitcher, (46.5% career) both are going to regress regardless of where he pitches in 2010, but the good news is if he regresses to career norms, his career HR/9 of 0.71 and HR/FB% of 6.7 are still good.

Pardon me for bringing up another Rays comparison, but Calero's career year with the Marlins immediately screams of Joe Nelson. Add in Calero's injury history that includes: the rotator cuff, elbow tendonitis and 21 days on the DL this season for shoulder inflammation, and you almost get a déjà vu feeling. However, the only surgery Calero had that I could find on record was to repair a ruptured patella tendon back in 2003 while Nelson has seen his fair share of "the knife."

Despite some similarities from their time with the Marlins and doctors visits, Calero and Nelson are different. Their fastball velocity is similar, around 89-90 mph, but Calero barely throws a change-up, and we all know about Nelson and his Vulcan. Instead, Calero goes to soup de jour of relief pitching and throws his slider more than he does his fastball (55.9% slider career). His slider has always been a plus pitch as had a wSL value of 8.9 this past year.

The plus slider has his swing strike percentage back to pre injury levels of around 12%.

	SwStr%	K%	uBB%
2005	10.8	22.71	6.99
2006	12	27.8	8.71
2007	9.7	16.3	15
2009	12	28.87	10.88

One of the key stats to look at for any potential free agent signing is his ability to hitters regardless of what side of the plate they hit from. Over the course of his career, Calero has shown the ability to get both sides, especially right handers. However, has improved against lefties in each season presumably thanks to that slider. In 2009 he dominated both.

OPSa	vs. LHB	vs. RHB
2005	0.911	0.442
2006	0.784	0.564
2007	0.708	0.87
2009	0.587	0.475

Even though Nelson didn't work out as the Rays had hoped, his signing and subsequent contract weren't bad. The Rays took a modest $1.3 million dollar risk on a one-year deal that didn't work out. Given the number of available high leverage relievers on the market, the potential injury risk, and his modest salary of around half a million in 2009, I'd say Calero is in line for a Nelson-esque contract; or at least that's my hope.

The Rays are looking for two or three relievers who have the ability to get hitters out regardless of handiness and the game situation. Potential signings of Calero and Joaquin Benoit could give the Rays just that without putting any pressure on the current payroll structure.

Jeff Salazar, Bryan Bullington Become Free Agents

Charlie — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 02:16:22 -0000

More photos » by Keith Srakocic - AP

8 months ago: Pittsburgh Pirates' Jeff Salazar, right, steals second before the tag of Cincinnati Reds' shortstop Adam Rosales in the bottom of the ninth inning of the spring training baseball game in Bradenton, Fla., Monday, March 30, 2009. Salazar went on to score the game winning run on a hit bit Jason Jaramillo in the Pirates 3-2 win. (AP Photo/Keith Srakocic)

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Since we're at the point in the year where there's nothing to care about except little things, here's some news: a bunch of guys just became minor league free agents. The only Pirate on the list is Jeff Salazar, who went 1-for-23 for the Bucs this year. Salazar probably needed to hit better this season to have much of a shot at a real major-league career, which is too bad; he has an .826 career minor league OPS (albeit in some pretty hospitable hitting environments, like Tucson and Colorado Springs), and it's a shame he never got more of a shot. Most guys who stick as fourth outfielders begin their careers as starters, like Brandon Moss this year; guys like Salazar who have the skillset but are never lucky enough to be confused for starters usually don't make it.

Also on the list of minor league free agents are former Pirate #1-overall picks Kris Benson and Bryan Bullington. Bullington actually pitched very well for the Jays' Class AAA affiliate in Las Vegas, but he didn't make an appearance there after June. The list also includes Chris Duffy, Chris Shelton, and Craig Stansberry.

Other vaguely interesting names on the list: Phil Humber (third overall pick by the Mets in 2004, acquired by Twins in the Johan Santana trade, stalled in the high minors), IF Wilson Betemit (former top Braves prospect, still not that old, bad season in the White Sox organization but versatile and potentially still useful), RP Javier Lopez (again, a terrible season, but he's one year removed from being one of the majors' more effective relievers), RP Greg Aquino (consistently good minor league numbers; certainly a better option than the Denny Bautistas of the world), RP Vinnie Chulk (ditto), RP Jon Switzer (same), RP Joe Nelson (actually a totally decent MLB pitcher for the Rays last year, and a terrific one for the Marlins in 2008), and lefty SP Travis Blackley (former top Mariners prospect finally seems to be pitching with better control in his late 20s and still hasn't been used exclusively as a reliever, where he might find his niche).

Nothing big here, but I'd be mildly psyched to see the Bucs sign Blackley, in particular.

Thanks to WTM.

Wednesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 13:47:50 -0000

by Jeff Roberson - AP

Todd Coffey walks around the mound as Matt Holliday rounds the bases following a three-run home run Tuesday.

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Some things to read while pursuing other opportunities.

Walking Albert Pujols to get to Matt Holliday didn't work out so well for the Brewers last night. Todd Coffey is accepting blame for the loss, but David Brown of Yahoo wonders why the Brewers didn't just take their chances with Pujols.

I promise I'll limit myself to one paragraph on J.J. Hardy today, so if you're sick of hearing about him, feel free to skip ahead. He denied being asked to take ground balls at third, and says it makes sense for him to be traded this offseason. Miller Park Drunk is helping Alcides Escobar fill in the void by giving him some tips regarding interaction with the ladies.

I'm not banging my head against the desk yet, but I'm keeping a space clear in case I need to start. Adam McCalvy's game preview for today has a look at the catching situation for next season, and Jason Kendall says he'd like to return. Of course, Mike Rivera also says he'd like to play every day.

Buried in the "Notes" section of that preview might be the bigger news: Ken Macha is adjusting his rotation to bump Yovani Gallardo back a few days. Gallardo will now pitch on Saturday instead of Thursday. The move will get him one less start in September, hopefully saving his arm for a more competitive 2010 team.

We've been talking a fair amount about Prince Fielder lately, but Ryan Braun had a pretty good August too, and earned a spot on MLB Notebook's August All Star Team.

In the minors:

The Brewers have two prospects in the top 25 in Project Prospect's rankings of position prospects. Alcides Escobar (#14) is the no-brainer, but for the first time I can recall, it's actually Caleb Gindl joining him in the top 25. Mat Gamel and Brett Lawrie both earned honorable mention.
Lawrie is one of four Brewer prospects who either have left or will leave their minor league teams to play for Team Canada in the Baseball World Cup. He'll be joined by pitchers Nick Bucci and Jim Henderson and center fielder Adam Stern.
Glancing at Baseball America's Minor League Transactions, I noticed the Brewers released pitcher Tom Wilhelmsen. Wilhelmsen was a former 7th round pick and top prospect for the Brewers, but as a commenter noted in this Mug, he eventually fell out of the organization due to a substance abuse issue. Wilhelmsen was re-signed out of the independent leagues earlier this season, but his second run with the Brewers lasted less than a month.

With last night's loss, CoolStandings dropped the Brewers' playoff chances to 0.1%. They're so far out of the playoff race, they don't even appear in Baseball Musings' Massive Tie Scenario.

Around baseball:

D-Backs: Acquired pitcher Kevin Mulvey from the Twins as the PTBNL in the Jon Rauch deal.
Dodgers: Designated outfielder Jamie Hoffman for assignment.
Rangers: Designated pitcher Thomas Diamond, their #1 pick in 2004, for assignment.
Rays: Designated reliever Joe Nelson for assignment to make room for Sean Rodriguez, acquired from the Angels as the PTBNL in the Scott Kazmir deal.
Red Sox: Designated outfielder Jeff Bailey for assignment.

There are dozens of major league debuts and returns being made this week as rosters expand, but it's possible the best story is happening in Houston, where Aaron Boone has returned to the active roster just five months after undergoing open heart surgery.

On this day in 2002, Kerry Wood struck out four Brewers in the fourth inning and hit a two run home run as the Cubs beat the Brewers 17-4 in game two of a doubleheader. The Brewers won game one behind two solo home runs from Ronnie Belliard.

Happy birthday today to Wes Littleton, who has split 2009 between Huntsville and Nashville and turns 27 today, and to Rick Manning, who turns 55.

That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in meat market specials.

Drink up.

Why High Priced Non-Elite Relievers Aren't Worth the Money

Tommy Rancel — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 07:00:15 -0000

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We've heard plenty of times this year about how the Rays need to add a veteran pitcher with closing experience. After Troy Percival's back, arm, and legs gave out along with Jason Isringhausen's arm blowing up, the Rays were left with a rag tag group of pitchers. No current member has held the Rays closer except for Dan Wheeler, who held it ever so briefly in Houston. Not only has the Rays pen not sunk without a true anchor, they've actually been really good. Coming as Thursday afternoon, the Rays were second in bullpen ERA (3.48) and fourth in FIP (3.89). The group also boasts the third best K/BB and fourth best HR/9. Not bad for a group with no names.

Here are the monthly breakdowns...

	IP	ERA	FIP	K/BB
April	63.1	3.84	4.1	1.81
May	101	4.19	4.6	1.84
June	70	1.67	2.61	3.1
July	66.1	4.21	4.08	2.5
August	14.2	2.45	3.28	2.75

The Rays pen was really never as bad as we thought. Sure, May was not pretty, but it was a far cry from Rays bullpens of the past. The Rays May bullpen also included veteran closer, Troy Percival, who allowed six earned runs in six innings and had a 9.00 ERA/7.57 FIP on the month. Since then, J.P. Howell and Co. have shut down teams more often than not. Every bullpen has a few hiccups along the way, but the Rays have a solid nucleus of guys with no defined titles. " As Dan Wheeler said the Rays don't need defined roles, but everyone has a job and understand that job. "Most of us just kind of understand when we're going to pitch." said Wheeler.

Could the Rays use another one of those non-descript arms like Jason Frasor or Michael Wuertz? Definitely, but the days of paying a veteran reliever a lot of money are likely over for the Rays. Just look at the production they've gotten from the collective group of Jason Isringhausen, Troy Percival, Chad Bradford, Joe Nelson and Brian Shouse aka the Rays relievers who are 34 years or older.

	IP	ERA	FIP	Salary
Percival	11.1	6.35	6.86	$4.45
Bradford	4.1	2.08	1.69	$3.50
Isringhausen	8	2.25	4.2	$0.75
Shouse	16.1	5.51	5.95	$1.35
Nelson	40.1	4.02	5.62	$1.30
	79.4	4.042	4.864	$11.35

Thats over $11 million dollars for what equates to be around league average production. If you take away Nelson, who is currently in Durham, the Rays will pay over $10 million dollars in salary to four relievers who have pitched less than 40 innings combined. Percival and Izzy are done for the season. Bradford is on the DL for the second time with no time table of returning (although I'd expect September at the latest) and Shouse is just returning from his injury. Percival's production was just awful even if it was just a small sample size. I think we all know that had he continued it would've only gotten worse. Isringhausen was ok, but was too small of a sample. Bradford and Shouse are still effective when used properly, but we have guys like Lance Cormier and Randy Choate, who have sub 4 FIPs and will make just a little over a million dollars combined.

The signings of Nelson and Shouse were not bad signings because of their length. Both essentially are on one year deals even though the Rays hold Nelson's rights for future seasons and a club option on Shouse for 2010. I'm not saying avoid all veteran relief pitchers, but signing non elite level veteran relievers to anything more than a one year deal is volitle. I'm not telling any of you guys anything new . Getting less production with a greater injury risk for more money just doesn't make sense for any team let alone the Rays. Most "experts" will continue to say the Rays need a closer, and I'm sure on all the offseason "wish lists" there will be "closer" in the box next to the Rays, but it's not necessary.

The Rays almost certainly will once again pass on the big name who have the closer title attached to them inflating their price. Instead, the team should seriously consider locking up J.P. Howell, who is one of the games true young elite relievers, as well as continue to bargain shop for the next Howell, Grant Balfour or Lance Cormier.

Rays Sign Jeff Bennett To 25-Man Roster; Release James Houser

Tommy Rancel — Sat, 01 Aug 2009 17:41:29 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

6 months ago: Atlanta Braves pitcher Jeff Bennett, left, talks with catcher Brian McCann in the fifth inning of a baseball game against the Cincinnati Reds, Tuesday, June 16, 2009, in Cincinnati. (AP Photo/Al Behrman)

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The Rays have signed 29-year-old, RHP Jeff Bennett today and added him to the 25-man roster. This move corresponds with the optioning of Joe Nelson to the minors. Sorry R.J. no Andy Sonnanstine for you. Bennett was recently released by the Atlanta Braves after going 2-4 with a 3.18 ERA/4.58 FIP in 33 games. Bennett landed on the DL on June 25th with a broken hand that required surgery. After completing his rehab assignment, the Braves granted his release.

He throws a fast ball/slider combo with his fastball averaging a solid 92 mph. His slider is around 84 mph, but he can get it up to 87 on occasion. Bennett has used a curveball and a changeup in the past, but has seemingly scrapped those pitches in 2009. He does get his fair share of groundballs as evidenced by his 55% career GB rate and has done a good job of keeping the ball in the park over the last two seasons (7 HR in 130+ innings.) He doesn't strike out many (6.26 K/9 career) and walks have given him a problem (4.05 BB/9 career). To clear the room for Bennett on the 40-man, the Rays released LHP James Houser, who has struggled in the minors this season.

A note on Bennett's dispute with the Braves:

The Braves didn’t announce it at the time, but they suspended his pay beginning June 25. He filed a grievance with the players association and continued his rehab, including two recent minor-league appearances.

When the grievance was heard, the Braves were directed to either “cure the default” by giving him his back pay for the period he was suspended, or allow him to become a free agent. Braves media-relations director Brad Hainje said Bennett requested the team release him from his contract, which they did.

2009 Trade Deadline Preview: Tampa Bay Rays

Matt Buggenhagen — Wed, 22 Jul 2009 14:40:29 -0000

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Buyers or sellers?

The Rays are probably going to be holders before anything, but if I had to label them with a short-term title I would say they are closer to being buyers than they're sellers. The Rays are only 4 ½ games behind the first place Yankees and still have a few holes they could fill prior to the deadline.

Short-term need

On the surface the Rays probably have one immediate short-term need, and that's catcher. The rest of their infield is pretty stout. They had all-stars at every infield position, excluding catcher. Dioner Navarro has been nothing short of a disappointment for the Rays this year .226/.253/.328. Additionally, his backup Michel Hernandez has been just as bad, if not worse .256/.291/.329. The Rays more than anything need some guys in house to start performing at a more consistent level. Players like B.J. Upton, Pat Burrell, Scott Kazmir, Jeff Niemann and David Price have been very inconsistent in their play throughout the entire season. If these players settle in and start performing at a more consistent level the Rays will be fine, and should find themselves right in the thick of the postseason race. However, don't expect the Rays to be very active. I wouldn't be surprised if the Rays didn't make any short-term quick fixes.

Long-term need

The Rays probably have the most talented young team in all of baseball, so it's tough to say what exactly their long-term need would be. Probably more than anything the Rays long-term needs are more financially focused. They're going to have to begin the process of figuring out how to keep this team together. They already completed the first part, which was signing third baseman Evan Longoria to a long-term contract, but over the course of the next few years they'll have several stars ready to hit the free agent market. In the next two years alone the Rays have roughly 76% of their current roster up for free agency including Carlos Pena, Carl Crawford, Pat Burrell, Troy Percival, Chad Bradford, Akinori Iwamura, Dioner Navarro, Jason Bartlett, Grant Balfour, Joe Nelson, Gabe Gross, Gabe Kapler, Jeff Niemann, Randy Choate, B.J. Upton, J.P. Howell, Matt Garza, Ben Zobrist, and Joe Dillon. Things are going to start getting expensive in Tampa, the Rays bubble may be in jeopardy of bursting real soon.

Big leaguers on the market?

I don't expect the Rays to have any big leaguers on the market; they're in contention and really have no reason to deal anybody on their current major league roster. However, as we've said things are going to start getting expensive in Tampa soon, so maybe if someone blew them away with an offer they might trade someone like either Scott Kazmir or Carl Crawford, but it's unlikely. Kazmir just signed a new three-year deal, where he is scheduled to make $6 million in 2009, $8 million in 2010, $12 million in 2011 and a club option for $13.5 million in 2012 (which has a $2.5 million buyout). Crawford's current contract has a club option for $10 million next year, which could increase to $11.5 million with escalators. Both contracts are pretty expensive for the Rays so it's not out of the realm of possibility for the Rays to listen to offers, but I wouldn't expect them to deal either player.

Minor league strength

The Rays minor league system has thinned out a bit, which is understandable given how many major league stars they have produced over the last few years. They still have a few young potential stars, which for the most part seem to be pitchers. Of course the cornerstone of their young pitching is former number one overall selection David Price. However, Price isn't the only young pitcher the Rays have. They also have two really good young pitchers in Wade Davis and Jeremy Hellickson. John Sickels of Minor League Ball considers Davis a "Gil Meche" type, and Hellickson he says has "Excellent combination of command with solid stuff."

One area that the Rays probably need to address is looking to add some depth to their system with position players. They have one really good position player in shortstop Tim Beckham (2008 number one overall selection). Beckham has struggled a bit so far in his career, but he's only 19, and most scouts' think he will come around soon. He's regarded as an excellent shortstop with great bat speed, which should lead to average power in his future.

In an effort to begin adding to that much needed depth the Rays used their first five draft selections in the 2009 draft on position players, which includes their first round pick, high school second baseman LeVon Washington.

Take on short-term money to win?

The Rays could probably take on some money, but it could only be a very small amount. However, I doubt the Rays are thrilled about the idea of taking on additional money, but if a deal came along that made them considerably better they might take a shot.

For more coverage of the Rays check out DRays Bay.

Rays Bullpen Comes Through In Victory

Erik Hahmann — Sat, 18 Jul 2009 18:18:25 -0000

The Rays bullpen had been on a great run of success for most of the month of June and the early parts of July...then the last two games before the All-Star break happened. The bullpen allowed eight runs in those two games, blowing leads in both to the normally punchless Oakland A's.

If the team is going to succeed in the second half of the season obviously the bullpen is going to need to be better than that. With James Shields doing his best Tim Redding impression last night, they would get their chance.

Randy Choate would relieve Shields in the 6th inning, facing lefty David DeJesus. Choate wouldn't get the job done as DeJesus singled in a run, making it seven earned runs on the night for Shields. However, the next four relievers would only allow two runners to reach base. This allowed the Rays offense a chance to get back in the game, and we all know how that turned out.

Chad Bradford relieved Randy Choate and recorded the final two outs of the 6th inning. Joe Nelson was brought in for the 7th inning and would give up a walk and a single, but got out of it with no damage done. Dan 'Big City' Wheeler pitched the 8th inning. Wheeler, who has been pitching effectively with a heavy dose of sliders, strayed from that path and threw only 4 of them in his 17 pitches that inning. After Yuni Betancourt nearly took his fastball deep to the opposite field I figured he'd put that pitch away for awhile. But after retiring Betancourt and DeJesus on 6 pitches it took 11 to get Bloomquist, only two of which were sliders. Bloomquist fouled off 5 high fastballs in a row, so it would have seemed like mixing in a slider, seeing as how it's his best pitch, would have worked. Bloomquist grounded out on the 6th fastball in a row to end the inning, so what do I know. J.P Howell came in to work the 9th and made short work of the Royals, retiring the side in order on 10 pitches(9 strikes) to save the one run victory. Game Chilled.

The Rays needed this victory badly. You do not want to start off an important 10 game road trip with a loss to the Royals, especially not when you face Zach Greinke the following night. The bullpen did what they're supposed to do and locked down the game, giving the potent offense time to fight their way back into the game. If the Rays are going to climb the standings and get into the playoffs we're going to need to see more of that from here on.

Are Tampa Bay Rays Buyers Or Sellers At the 2009 MLB Trade Deadline?

Tommy Rancel — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 10:00:15 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Riedel - AP

Carl Crawford would draw a lot of interest should the Rays make him available.

Browse more photos »

The Rays made history in 2008. In 2009, history does not look to be on their side. Thanks to this nifty piece by DRB friend Jonah Keri, we can see the odds are stacked against the Rays making the playoffs this season. Going back to 1995, the first year of the wild card, he found out the percentages of what teams made the playoffs based on their standings at the all star break. Here are the numbers from Keri's article

GB	% of Playoffs
Divison Ldr	69
2-5	47
5.5-8	13
8.5+	3.8

As you can see division leaders at the all star break make the playoffs almost 70% of the time. Now this is a bit skewed since the numbers include the wildcard. Conversely, the wildcard also affects teams like the San Francisco Giants, who are seven games out of first place, but would be a playoff team right now as the NL wildcard.

The Rays currently sit 6.5 games out of first place or in the 5.5-8 range. Since 1995, only three of 20 teams 6.5-7 games out of first place have made the playoffs (15%). The Rays are three back of the wild card, but have failed to make up any real ground on the Yankees. With the trade deadline 16 days away, the Rays are going to be faced with some tough decisions should the gap between them and the teams their chasing continue to remain stagnant.

Personally, I think if the Rays are three games or less behind the wild card around July 31^st then we should look to add rather than sell. However, if they aren't able to make up ground out of the break then we could see a dramatic roster change should the Rays choose to be "sellers." Now I use the term sellers, but I don't mean moving James Shields and his team friendly contract. We all know that there is going to be some turnover from the 2009 roster to the 2010 roster; payroll dictates that much. And we all know the names out there that make the most sense. The Rays have a handful of very desirable and very valuable chips most notably Carl Crawford. I know people will say Scott Kazmir, but coming off an injury Kaz's value is lower than it should be. I think we would be better suited keeping Kazmir and explore something in the off-season if anything

Crawford would easily be the most desired bat on the market. I know Matt Holliday could be available, but CC is younger, having a better offensive season, is miles better defensively and is not just a two month rental. At age 27, CC is prime for another five year extension. I'd love for that to be here, but the economics may not work out.

Outside of Crawford, the Rays have a number of valuable pieces in the bullpen. Every year every contending team is looking to add to their bullpen. Names like Dan Wheeler, Chad Bradford, and even Joe Nelson could be very popular should the Rays decide to move some pieces. Wheeler has rebounded from a terrible start. He now sports an above average 3.58 ERA/3.95 ERA and his 3.14 K/BB is also stellar. He is owed the rest of his $3.2 million dollar salary for 2009 as well as $3.5 million for 2010. There is a $4 million dollar option for 2011 or a $1 million dollar buyout. For some teams that is a very affordable contract for at worst a league average reliever.

Bradford hasn't been sharp since his return, but I'm sure if made available, he would draw some interest now that most of his $3.5 million dollar salary for 2009 is paid. Bradford can still get ground balls with the best of them and has had a bit of bad luck since his return. Joe Nelson has had a down year (4.50 ERA/5.71 FIP), but at a pro-rated amount of the $1.3 million he is scheduled to make in 2009, I'm sure teams would like to add him.

There are others names there too, but we've already rosterbated enough. Truly, I hope this post becomes obsolete once we start playing games on Friday, but I'd be lying if said that I haven't considered the worst. The last thing I want to do is give up on 2009, but the gap remains as wide as it is or wider, than the smart move would be to make this team better for the future.