SB Nation - Mike Hampton

Looking Back: Todd Zeile

Alex Nelson — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 20:03:42 -0000

After looking at Robin Ventura and Kevin Appier—two guys who, with a little better luck during their careers, might be solid Hall of Fame candidates—we'll next turn our attention to the guys I can't even pretend are realistic Hall candidates, starting with Todd Zeile.

Of all the Mets teams during my lifetime, the 1999 Mets were my favorite. With an infield of John Olerud, Edgardo Alfonzo, Robin Ventura, and Rey Ordonez, and Mike Piazza behind the plate, those Mets were a rare offensive-minded team in Flushing. After the season, I was crushed when the Mets failed to sign Olerud to the three-year contract he wanted—Steve Phillips sort of gave up when Olerud expressed his desire to go home to Seattle. Instead, Phillips turned to veteran third baseman Todd Zeile to fill in the gap at first, signing him to a three-year, $18-million contract.

I thought it was a huge mistake at first, one that the Mets, competing with a dominant team like the Braves, might not recover from. Take a look at these WAR totals:

Year	Olerud	Zeile
1997	5.2	2.2
1998	8.1	2.7
1999	5.3	1.4

Those are not comparable players, folks. Then, when you consider that Zeile was shifting from third to first, was three years older than Olerud, and signed essentially the same contract, it really didn't look like a very smart move to me. And it wasn't, because Olerud was still the better player, both in 2000 and going forward.

But you know what? It really didn't cost the Mets anything in 2000. Almost the same team from 1999 returned in 2000—the notable differences were no Johnny O. at first base and Roger Cedeno and Octavio Dotel were swapped for Mike Hampton—and despite some players letting down the team (Darryl Hamilton, Rickey Henderson, Ventura), the Mets made it to the World Series anyway. Olerud had something of a down year, hitting .285/.392/.439. Meanwhile, Zeile hit pretty well, producing a .268/.356/.467 line with 22 homers, 36 doubles, and 79 RBI in a lineup that otherwise struggled.

And the biggest surprise, to me at least, was how good a defender at first base Zeile was. He was pretty brutal at third, but he was a mobile first baseman with more polish than I expected from the guy who committed more errors in the 1990's than anyone. Total Zone has him at +12 for the 2000 season, which is actually a couple runs more than Olerud was worth with the glove. Olerud was still the better player, overall, but Zeile didn't represent enough of a drop-off to really cost the Mets anything, at least not in 2000.

2001 was another matter, unfortunately, when Zeile was pretty much done—his power vanished, although his on-base ability remained—and the Mets were forced to trade him for Jeromy Burnitz's bad contract in a three-team deal with the Brewers and Rockies. In the long run, Zeile was an error; however, the move was made with the short-term in mind first and foremost, and in the short-term it was close enough to a success for me.

The Mets, of course, brought him back for his final big-league season and even let the veteran return to his original position for a couple games: catcher. There was more than a little desperation involved, but it was also at Zeile's request. Manager Art Howe also took him out early in his final game, so that his final plate appearance could be a homerun.

Player	Career	Top 3	Top 5	Per 162
Todd Zeile	15.1	7.2	8.6	1.13

Nowhere near a Hall of Famer, but he did play well enough to enjoy a long career. Back in 2001, Bill James ranked him 81st among all third basemen, writing "A Brooks Robinson clone as a hitter, but more of a Larry Parrish at third base." Sounds about right.

Free Agent Starting Pitching: BCB Weighs In

roguejim — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 14:51:33 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

I am Carl Pavano --- no one gave up more earned runs last year in all of baseball last year than I. But I command you to look only at my peripherals! Look at them! Yesss...stare longingly at my sweet sweet peripherals. Love them! (AP Photo/Pat Sullivan)

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It just occurred to me that the Winter Meetings are coming up fast, and we haven't told Doug Melvin which two free agent pitchers we wanted. (Frankly, that's probably how the Hardy/Gomez trade went down: we didn't specifically tell DM for whom Hardy should be traded, and he went rogue and made the trade himself.) Assuming we can't (and shouldn't!) get into a bidding war on the services of John Lackey, which two of the free agent pitchers listed below should we try to sign, and why? Be sure to consider salary when choosing.

(Note 1: I'm not including the likes of Mulder and Halama, as you can't sign them and assume they'll win a spot.)

(Note 2: I haven't seen much written about Kelvim Escobar, who hasn't had an ERA north of 4 since 2003. The Red Sox are asking about him, the Brewers should too.)

(Note 3: Shawn Hill is cheap, a sinkerballer, often injured, and one of the few ex-Expos out there not yet 30. A perfect flier for the Brewers.)

Here's the list:

Aroldis Chapman, LHP who throws 100 MPH, albeit erratically
Randy Wolf
Rich Harden
Erik Bedard
John Smoltz
Andy Pettitte
Joel Pineiro
Jarrod Washburn
Ben Sheets
Brad Penny
Justin Duchscherer
Pedro Martinez. Vote for Pedro!
Doug Davis
Jason Marquis
Jon Garland
Vicente Padilla
Carl Pavano
Braden Looper
Randy Johnson
Mike Hampton
Hisanori Takahashi
Paul Byrd
Ugh...I'll opt for choosing only one free agent and trading Gamel for the other

Astros Roster Breakdown: The 2008 Offseason

davoag — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 13:00:23 -0000

by Pat Sullivan - AP

Look, waaay in the back...It's Ed Wade!

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Let's start the week off by looking at what the Astros did before and during the 2009 season. No major trades went down, nor were there any major signings. In fact, it sounds much like I'm sure this offseason will. Please give me your own take on the moves in the comments and what grade you'd give to Ed Wade for last season.

Move One: Signed Mike Hampton - The lefty Rob Lowe came at a bargain, earning 2 million dollars with 2 million in performance bonuses. I'm not sure if he met those, though. Hampton proved to be just what we thought he'd be: a little below league average and not very durable. For the money, though? You're not going to get much more.

Move Two: Signed Ivan Rodriguez - As a catcher with the Astros, it's fair to say Pudge failed. He started enough to break the record, but was pretty terrible when he did play. His OPS+ of 75 seemed to belie what fans saw on the field. It appeared that Pudge was having a meaningful impact on games, though his stat showed differently. Look at his splits in close and late situations, though: .359/.388/.406. Go even deeper, and you can see his numbers in high leverage situations: .280/.313/.320. Of course, this was offset by the fact that Rodriguez struck out all three times before getting to the late innings. He was a frustrating player, but his signing wasn't terrible, just ill-conceived.

Move Three: Signed Jason Michaels - Another guy who should have been better than he was. His career average of .269 should have made the Astros bench stronger, but Michaels couldn't put it together and struggled for much of the season. It also didn't help that he wasn't the best defensive replacement as a fourth outfielder. Still, who else were you going to get for 750K?

Move Four: Signed Russ Ortiz - With Hampton, he formed the "Let's Hope the Old Pitchers Can Revive With Us...Oh, Wait, HGH and Steroids are Banned...We're Screwed" duo. It's not the catchiest of names, but it is effective.

Move Five: Re-signed Doug Brocail - Doug was a pleasant surprise in 2008, but injuries derailed him last season. Who'd have predicted that the 42-year old reliever would have injury trouble? They're usually so reliable...Considering Brocail had injury trouble two years before, the Astros did well by stocking up on relievers with minor league deals, just in case. Was it 2.75 million well spent? Probably not.

Move Six: Re-signed LaTroy Hawkins - As I mentioned in my reliever rundown, Hawkins proved to be a reliable reliever for a second straight year. Whether this was due to the league he was in or to some sort of mechanical adjustment, the Astros have more than reaped the reward for a 3.5 million dollar contract.

Move Seven: Claimed Jeff Fulchino - Waiver claims like this show just good your advance scouts and major league scouts have to be. Fulchino provided a nice addition to the bullpen when Backe and Brocail both got hurt. Plus, Fulchino came much, much cheaper than either Hawkins, Valverde or Brocail. Oh, by the way, according to FanGraphs, he was also worth 3.4 million, which is more than all three of those relievers combined.

Move Eight: Signed Aaron Boone - I won't be glib here, since Boone had to go through too much this season. I respect the hell out of him for coming back and playing late in the season, but the Astros had to have wanted more out of him on the left side of the infield than they got. Still, here's hoping Boone continues to be in good health and can be a productive player, if he so chooses.

Midseason moves

Move Nine: Claimed Chris Coste - The former Phillie probably wishes he were in the World Series right now instead of the unemployment line. He should have been a lefty specialist off the bench, but hit worse against lefties than righties. Coste also didn't provide the pop the Astros needed when Berkman went down with an injury. Would they have been better served calling up Mark Saccomanno?

Move Ten: Traded away Ivan Rodriguez for Jose Vallejo and Matt Nevarez - This trade would have looked even better if the Rangers had made the playoffs and had to throw in another player. Still, the Astros basically paid 1.5 million for these two prospects. Not too shabby...

Move Eleven: Traded Drew Sutton for Jeff Keppinger - Boone's heart condition probably necessitated this trade to shore up the left side of the infield. As one of the commenters pointed out in the Mackanin post last week, Keppinger was only played at short after Mackanin put him there. Kepp did an okay job filling in for both Tejada and Blum. This trade happened before Chris Johnson broke his hand, but was certainly fortuitous. The Astros really didn't have anyone who could fill in for Blum on a regular basis.

Move Twelve: Claimed German Duran - This was a move for next season. We'll have to wait to see if Duran can contribute before passing judgement on it.

Overall, it was a mixed bag for GM Ed Wade. He made all the moves he could with no budget, tinkering around the margins and getting somewhat solid players. In both trades, it appears he got value, as Kepp is a good bench player and Drew Sutton didn't make much of an impact in Cincy, getting 66 big-league at-bats with an OPS+ of 68.

The Pudge signing was mandated by Drayton (I think), but give Wade credit for standing up to his owner enough to flip Rodriguez for some value. As disappointing as 2009 was in so many ways, Wade hasn't been among them. He's proven he can let Bobby Heck work his magic in the draft and can make those little moves that Gerry Hunsicker used to make so well.

Overall grade: B

Astros Roster Breakdown: The Starters

davoag — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 21:49:44 -0000

More photos » by Dino Vournas - AP

Roy Oswalt, in a rare good mood

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To lead off the starters section, I wanted to focus a little on Roy Oswalt. The soon-to-be 32-year old had his worst season as a professional, but was that a sign of aging and decline, or just a bump in the road?

His BABiP shows he wasn't unlucky in 2009 and was right in line with his career average. He also didn't throw more pitchers per plate appearance than he has in his career, while getting the most swinging strikes he's had since 2004. He did have a slight dip in his percentage of strikeouts that were looking, but since his swing and miss percentage didn't change, I think that was more statistical noise than anything.

You can't even blame injuries for hampering his stuff, because his fastball velocity was the same as it has been for the past few years. In fact, it actually ticked up a notch, but that's probably because of the only significant difference in his performance this season, a 5% drop in the number of fastballs he threw. Oswalt supplemented with more sliders and changeups. So, speed was not an issue...was something wrong with his movement? I wish I were smart enough to put together those cool scatter charts using the PitchF/X data, but I'm not there yet. I'd really like to see if he lost movement or late life on his fastball to determine if that's what the injuries robbed him of.

Other than possibly that, it appears his main problem may have been his attitude. Clashing so publicly and so often with Cecil Cooper, Roy just didn't give off the vibes of a guy playing his best. I'm sure he was playing his hardest, since he seems to have only one speed in that regard. But I wonder if he was mentally there this season. It's the one thing we can't really quantify, attitude.

Hear that, Brad Mills? Keep The Wizard happy next season and he'll bounce back.

Onto the rest of the starting rotation after the jump...

Roy Oswalt, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 8-6, 181 1/3 IP, 4.12 ERA, 30 GS, 19 HR, 138 strikeouts, 42 walks, 1.24 WHIP, 101 ERA+

FIP: 3.76

Average Game Score: 53

BABiP:.305

GB/FB: 1.21

Pitching Runs Created: 70

Notes: Since we've already talked about Roy-Boy's career trajectory, let's focus in on his 2009 season. Is this just the pitcher Roy is now? He struggled with getting any kind of decision all season, finishing with 16 non-decisions. His BABiP was right in line with normal luck, and he still got plenty of ground balls. The concerning part is his strikeout total, but as I said, that's been pretty steady for the past four seasons. His FIP shows he should have had a better ERA, but it would still have been his highest in his career. Roy was one of the main players disappointed in Cooper. Hopefully, he'll be motivated in 2010, because with Roy feeling right and Wandy pitching well, we will have a nice front end to the rotation. About that back end, though...

Wandy Rodriguez, LHP

2009 Season Stats: 14-12, 205 2/3 IP, 3.02 ERA, 33 GS, 21 HR, 193 strikeouts, 63 walks, 1.24 WHIP, 138 ERA+

FIP: 3.54

Average Game Score: 57

BABiP:.306

GB/FB: 1.21

Pitching Runs Created:100

Notes: Wandy was the best pitcher on the Astros staff last season. To put it in perspective, the difference between his and Roy's PRC was Mike Hampton. Maybe overly simple, but pretty amazing, no? Wandy's BABiP showed he wasn't just lucky to pitch this well and his strikeout total is very impressive, especially for a lefty. You'd like to see a few fewer walks, but that's just quibbling. The other interesting thing is his game scores. At 57, it was the highest of any of the starters and showed just how good he was game-to-game. His home/away splits were still very pronounced, though his strikeout rate was about the same. Two full runs of ERA though? For Wandy to take that next step to be an ace, he needs to perform better in road games.

Brian Moehler, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 8-12, 154 2/3 IP, 5.47 ERA, 29 GS, 21 HR, 91 strikeouts, 51 walks, 1.53 WHIP, 76 ERA+

FIP: 4.75

Average Game Score: 44

BABiP:.325

GB/FB: 1.25

Pitching Runs Created: 39

Notes: Moehler started the third-most games on the team last season. The trouble was, he did not perform like a third starter. Though his FIP was lower than his ERA and his BABiP meant he was a little unlucky, Moehler was more bad than good. His strikeouts and walks were both not where they should be. Though he had a good G/F ratio, his average game score shows he was a below league average starter in most of his outings. Much was made about a few of his starts at the beginning and end of the season blowing his ERA up too high. If you added 50 points to his total game score, he still would be well belew the the baseline. As a back-end starter? Moehler probably is useful, but will be recovering from a knee injury he had surgery on. Still, for 3 million? He's not a bad option.

Mike Hampton, LHP

2009 Season Stats: 7-10, 112 IP, 5.30 ERA, 21 GS, 13 HR, 74 strikeouts, 37 walks, 1.55 WHIP, 78 ERA+

FIP: 4.57

Average Game Score: 45

BABiP:.322

GB/FB: 1.78

Pitching Runs Created: 30

Notes: Hampy did just what we thought he'd do, getting a ton of ground balls and not really overpowering anyone. Oh, and getting hurt. He did that too. It's a little surprising Hampton gave up as many home runs as he did, but it did appear this experiment failed.

Felipe Paulino, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 3-11, 97 2/3 IP, 6.27 ERA, 17 GS, 20 HR, 93 strikeouts, 37 walks, 1.67 WHIP, 66 ERA+

FIP: 5.11

Average Game Score: 45

BABiP:.368

GB/FB: 1.08

Pitching Runs Created: 24

Notes: Obviously, anytime a hot, young prospect makes his debut and promptly posts a 6+ ERA, it's hard to be very excited. I still think his performance was somewhat affected by recovering from his 2008 injury, even if only slightly. His strikeouts numbers were great, though he gave up too many hits to win consistently. Paulino is too talented not to win more than three games next season, but it may take him a while to adjust. The Astros would pay more on the open market for a pitcher without nearly the upside of Paulino.

Russ Ortiz, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 3-6, 85 2/3 IP, 5.57 ERA, 13 GS, 8 HR, 65 strikeouts, 48 walks, 1.67 WHIP, 75 ERA+

FIP: 4.61

Average Game Score: 42

BABiP:.330

GB/FB: 1.62

Pitching Runs Created: 23

Notes: Ouch. The positives? Ortiz only gave up eight home runs and had a nice G/F ratio of 1.62. That's about it, though, as his nice start gave way to a rough time in the rotation. Ortiz wasn't as bad as his ERA indicated, but neither was he very good. He was hittable and probably was best as a swingman in the bullpen. He'll have to be that for some other team though, as I don't see the Astros bringing him back.

Bud Norris, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 6-3, 55 2/3 IP, 4.53 ERA, 10 GS, 54 strikeouts, 25 walks, 1.50 WHIP, 92 ERA+

FIP: 4.77

Average Game Score: 49

BABiP:.327

GB/FB: 0.87

Pitching Runs Created: 20

Notes: Norris had the most successful debut of any Astros rookie in 2009. He had some rough patches, obviously, but his average game score was still just a shade under average. He was a bit unlucky with his BABiP and gave up too many fly balls, but the strikeouts were there and the walks were minimized. I don't know whether he can get his control working well enough to be a permanent fixture in the rotation, but with his arm, he will have a place on the big league team for a while.

Yorman Bazardo, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 1-3, 32 IP, 7.88 ERA, 6 GS, 17 strikeouts, 22 walks, 1.84 WHIP, 53 ERA+

FIP: 5.00

Average Game Score: 34

BABiP:.323

GB/FB: 1.52

Pitching Runs Created:5

Notes: The Astros won a bidding war to sign Bazardo to a minor league deal in spring training. He joined with Bud Norris and, later, Polin Trinidad to form a potent rotation at Round Rock. Unfortunately, Bazardo may be the proverbial Quadruple-A guy. His strikeout rate has never been very good (5.3 K/9 in minor-league career), though he supplements that by not allowing too many walks. Bazardo does get a fair number of ground balls and his BABiP showed he was slightly unlucky in 2009. His ERA, though, doesn't really support the claim that his failure was all because of Tejada and Matsui. Bazardo should probably be given another shot, but he's a fringe fifth starter at most.

Wilton Lopez, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 0-2, 19 1/3 IP, 8.38 ERA, 2 GS, 9 strikeouts, 8 walks, 2.07 WHIP, 50 ERA+

FIP: 6.25

Average Game Score: 35

BABiP:.381

GB/FB: 2.32

Pitching Runs Created: 2

Notes: Lopez pitched eight games out of the bullpen, but did start two games, so he ended up in this list. A pickup from the Padres, Lopez pitched relatively well for Corpus Christi before getting a late-season callup. Lopez had a good ground ball rate for his limited sample size and his FIP was lower than his ERA (though neither were very good). He profiles as a guy who could hang around Triple-A and help the Astros out in a pinch, but I wouldn't count on him contributing much in 2009.

Brandon Backe, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 0-0, 13 IP, 10.38 ERA, 1 GS, 10 strikeouts, 6 walks, 2.08 WHIP, 40 ERA+

FIP: 7.94

Average Game Score: 41

BABiP:.375

GB/FB: 0.77

Pitching Runs Created: 2

Notes:You'll find no bigger fan of the Galveston native than me. Jeff Kent's home run to beat the Cards in 2004 wouldn't have been possible without Backe throwing a whale of a game. Unfortunately, that's all we got from him. Tantalizing glimpses at potential that never really panned out in the majors. Backe ran into a wall of injuries and ineffectiveness in 2009, refused a demotion to Triple-A and was released.

Remembering A Forgotten Mariner

Jeff — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 06:59:24 -0000

So I finally got around to taking that quiz that Addicted To Quack posted a little while ago, the one that asks you to name as many 1990-2009 Opening Day Seattle Mariners as you can in 15 minutes. Those of you who wish to take the quiz without spoilers should probably stop reading this post. Those of you who have already taken it or who don't wish to take it may continue.

The quiz itself was fun - I knew all that time playing World Series Baseball '94 would pay off eventually - but more fun than the quiz were the results. As of this writing, the quiz has been taken 906 times. 906 seems like a pretty good sample size. Out of those 906 participants, 898 remembered to include Ken Griffey Jr. 868 remembered to include Edgar Martinez. 857 remembered to include Ichiro (perhaps some people neglected to try "Suzuki"). 780 remembered to include Jay Buhner. Other notable bits:

More people remembered Buhner than Adrian Beltre
More people remembered Yuniesky Betancourt than Raul Ibanez
Nearly two-thirds of participants have already forgotten our 2009 Opening Day left fielder and DH
Omar Vizquel was remembered as often as Franklin Gutierrez
It's hard to say how many people actually remember Al Martin, since his name gets entered the first time you try to spell "Martinez"

And so on. There are a lot of names in there, and as such, there are a lot of numbers to look at. The thing that caught my eye more than anything else, though, was the name at the very bottom. The name at the bottom of the list represents the most forgotten Mariner in the quiz. And as it turns out, the most forgotten Mariner in the quiz - defeating the bad Brian Giles by a narrow margin - is 1993 left fielder Mike Felder. Felder's name was included on just 59 of 906 ballots, or 43 fewer than Wilson Valdez, a last-minute stopgap who played all of 42 games. Mike Felder, it seems, didn't leave much of a lasting impression.

It's not that Mike Felder is the most disremembered Mariner of all time*. Not even close. Though showing up on 6.5% of all quiz entries isn't good, I have to imagine that far fewer than 6.5% of people can recall past pre-90s Mariners like Wayne Twitchell and Bud Bulling. But just the fact that Felder shows up at the bottom of a list like this is enough to count him among The Forgotten, and it's with that said that I'd like to take this opportunity to go over who Felder was and raise some awareness so that, when future generations of Mariner fans take this quiz, they might push his name up above that of a guy who came a decade too early to be a shitty impostor of somebody good.

* have you ever tried asking a group of fans "so which player in your team's history do you think is the most forgotten?" It's weird.

Michael Otis "Tiny" Felder was drafted out of Contra Costa Junior College by the Milwaukee Brewers in the third round of the 1981 January draft. Felder is listed at 5'8, 160, and given my memories of little doorways in old European castles and cathedrals and the fact that 1981 was a long time ago, I have to assume his nickname was ironic. Nevertheless, Felder was selected shortly after John Kruk and well before Oddibe McDowell, so as far as making it as a draft pick was concerned, he found himself in some talented company.

Unfortunately for Felder, it seems his particular selection that year was forgettable. So forgettable, apparently, that the draft link on his Baseball-Reference player page takes you to a list of names that doesn't have Mike or Felder anywhere on it. From the beginning, he was up against the odds. Felder would have to prove himself every step of the way if he wanted to get his big break.

Felder would get his break in 1985 after hitting .314 and running a ton with AAA Vancouver. He earned himself a late-season cup of coffee with the Brewers, and though poor performance got him demoted in early 1986, once you've had a taste of the Major Leagues, it's all you ever want. Felder worked hard to climb his way back, and sure enough, 1987 saw him make it as a regular in the outfield. He would appear in 108 games and make 328 trips to the plate, finishing second on the Brewers in both triples and stolen bases. Felder had carved himself a role.

A few years would pass. Felder appeared in 445 games with Milwaukee before asking for his release ("Sitting behind Robin Yount for five years in enough") and signing with the Giants as a free agent, where he would set consecutive career highs in games played. Granted free agency again in October 1992, Felder was a 31 year old speedy outfielder coming off a 107 OPS+ season, and after trading Kevin Mitchell to the Reds, the Mariners saw in Felder a guy who could fill a need. And so it was that Felder signed a two-year, $1.8m contract with Seattle. "Let me tell you, he's an exciting player," said new manager Lou Piniella. Woody Woodward sold the acquisition as helping usher in a new era of relevant and successful Mariner baseball.

Heading into the season, spirits were high. In Felder, the Mariners had a leadoff guy who could get on base and wreak a lot of havoc. It's too bad, then, that the biggest thing the Mariners were missing was a statistic that hadn't yet been invented.

Felder, Career: .279 BABIP
Felder, 1992: .301 BABIP

The Mariners saw a speed demon who just hit .286. Math saw a guy who overachieved by 20 or 25 points, and when you combine probable regression with a guy on the wrong side of 30, sometimes you'll get Raul Ibanez, but more times you'll get Mike Felder.

Felder started off 1993 reasonably well. And by "started off" I mean that very literally, because his batting average dropped below .280 after 25 at bats and never recovered. By late May he was down to the .240s, by late June he was losing playing time, and come mid-August he went on the DL with knee tendinitis, with age and bad turf having taken more than their toll on a player whose strength was his legs. Unable to run like the minor league stolen base champion of his youth, Felder had trouble beating out grounders and running down balls in the gap, with the ultimate result being a sorry .531 OPS that didn't show any improvement when he returned from the DL in September. Though the Mariners were feeling pretty good about having had just their second .500+ season in franchise history, they were feeling pretty bad about their busted investment.

It didn't take long, then, for Woodward to find Felder a new home in the offseason. Felder's all-around miserable 1993 campaign earned him a second sentence on astroturf, this time in Houston, where he was dealt in exchange for Eric Anthony. Woodward wanted to unload a bad contract and bring in a young outfield type with power, so he put together a package of Felder and 20 year old southpaw Mike Hampton. Hampton, of course, turned out to be pretty good. Anthony didn't. One bust begot another bust, and the curse of the Kingdome left field lived on.

Every aspect of the Mike Felder story is a disappointment. Advertised as a game-changer, he wasn't any good, as injuries and age killed not only his time in Seattle, but his career. And the trade that got rid of him only brought more agony, as Hampton flourished while Anthony stagnated. Had Felder panned out, the Mariners would've had both an impact outfielder and a young lefty starter to slot into the front of the rotation. Instead, they wound up with neither, and while it isn't all Felder's fault, that's certainly one interpretation.

And this is why I think it's a shame that, today, Felder is all but forgotten. Yes, he was bad. The Mariners have had a lot of bad, far too much to remember every name. But Felder wasn't bad like Scott Spiezio was bad, or like Carl Everett was bad; Felder was bad like Jeff Cirillo was bad, or like Ben Davis was bad. Tied inextricably to his name is a great deal of blown hope. You think about Felder and you think about Anthony, and Hampton, and all the other left fielders we tried, and how things could've been had one guy just worked out. These are the sorts of names we should remember. The purpose of history is to warn us about the future. And out of the Mike Felder experience we learn lessons we shouldn't soon forget.

Edgar Martinez is Mr. Mariner, but as long as we all identify with the Sexson logo at the top of this page, then Mike Felder's is a name we can't allow to disappear into the ether.

Brian Giles?

Fuck Brian Giles.

Busting out in the Divisional Round: Alex Rodriguez and Jeff Bagwell

HighLeveragePerformer — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 11:00:37 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

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Story after story after story have been written in the past week about Alex Rodriguez' playoff redemption. For a player as maligned as Rodriguez, truly positive press can be hard to come by. After a season of high expectations for his team, the Yankee third baseman thriving outside of the spotlight- free agent signees Mark Teixeira, AJ Burnett and CC Sabathia, the resurgent Derek Jeter and their new baseball palace have stolen headlines that used to belong to A-Rod. If the result of this relative lack of exposure is the success we've witnessed over the first few games of the playoffs, then maybe Rodriguez could use some of that $300 million contract to force the NY beat writers to focus on Jerry Hairston, Jr. and Brett Gardner in 2010.

Besides the lessening of external pressure on the slugger, the lineup the Yankees have fielded this season is much stronger than those in playoff years past. Outside of 2004, his playoff performances have been well below his career averages. It's tough to judge a player based off of fewer than 35 AB, but it's the nature of the beast playing in New York, on baseball's biggest stage.

Jeff Bagwell never had to deal with the New York media, or the ire of the baseball public during his illustrious career. After four failed attempts to escape the first round the playoffs, Bagwell and the Astros finally managed to lay their collective demons to rest by beating the Atlanta Braves in the 2004 NLDS. Bags would see extended playoff ABs for the first time in his career, and he responded by posting a stupendous "triple-slash" of .318/.400/.682 in 22 ABs. No longer would he be forced to head into yet another off season coming off of tepid October performances.

Was there anything special about that October as compared to 1997, '98, '99 or 2001 (which in fairness was a solid, albeit short, postseason for Jeff)?

1997:

Position	Player	wOBA
C	Bradley	.305
1B	Bags	.428
2B	Craig	.410
3B	S. Berry/Spiers	.316/.404
SS	Bogar/Ricky	.315/.302
LF	Gonzo	.320
CF	Hidalgo	.373
RF	Abreu	.319

1998:

Position	Player	wOBA
C	Ausmus	.318
1B	Bags	.422
2B	Craig	.406
3B	Berry	.387
SS	Gutierrez	.301
LF	Alou	.416
CF	Everett	.359
RF	Bell	.373

1999:

Position	Player	wOBA
C	Eusebio	.320
1B	Bags	.422
2B	Craig	.368
3B	Cammy	.374
SS	Bogar	.294
LF	Javier	.374
CF	Everett	.416
RF	Bell	.296

Note: This season saw the likes of Daryle Ward (.336), Javier, and Matt Mieske (.333) start playoff games in the outfield. Yikes.

2001:

Position	Player	wOBA
C	Bradley	.270
1B	Bags	.408
2B	Craig	.364
3B	V. Castilla	.339
SS	J. Lugo	.303
LF	Alou	.397
CF	Hidalgo	.346
RF	Lance	.435

2004:

Position	Player	wOBA
C	Bradley	.271
1B	Bags	.364
2B	Kent	.369
3B	Ensberg	.321
SS	Everett	.313
LF	Craig	.349
CF	Beltran	.404
RF	Lance	.427

While the addition of Beltran and Kent in 2004 were huge additions, it wasn't as if the Astros became the '27 Yankees. In fact, this was Bagwell's worst season in his career (to that point), yet he had his best postseason ever. While A Rod's mates are clearly superior in 2009 than in seasons past, the same can't truly be said of Bags' bunch in 2004. Between his and Craig's declines, and the lowest output from 3B since 1997, this was a pretty good, but not superior lineup. What surprised me was that Jeff Kent, a power hitting second baseman throughout his career, posted Biggio-like numbers at second in 2004. Lance Berkman is great....like, "play for five more seasons and punch his ticket to Cooperstown" great.

If anything, I'd chalk up their 2004 NLCS appearance to not having to face Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Kevin Brown, and John Smoltz, and instead facing off against Jaret Wright, John Thomson, Russ Ortiz and Mike Hampton. Wait a second...Ortiz? Hampton? Weren't they on the....this season? Damn.

Roster Breakdown: The Money

davoag — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 21:12:42 -0000

I mentioned there would be a more in-depth look a the Astros 2009 roster today and this is the first part of that attempt. My plan is to look at three different phases of the roster, starting with the monetary worth of all the players, followed by how the position players performed and then how the pitchers did. Hopefully, by knowing what the Astros were last year, it will help predict what they need to do in 2010 to be successful. Onward and upward after the jump...

Helped by the wonderful people over at FanGraphs, I charted the Astros entire roster on both their value in dollar amounts and their actual salaries, which I got from Cot's Baseball Contracts. I added all of them up to get the team's total value for the season and how much money they actually spent. I should also note before we dive into analysis that I adjusted the pitcher's values for their batting, which I'll talk about more in a minute.

The Astros players performed at a value worth 95.2 million this season, while the payroll came in around 106.2 million. This means the team underperformed the payroll by about 11 million dollars. I was a little surprised at this, as I mentioned yesterday in the Dave Clark story, the Astros outperformed their pythag record by six wins. I thought this might translate into value for the club. It did, but not to the extent I expected.

In fact, if we discounted the pitchers' batting, the team would have outperformed payroll by about 7 million, but some of the pitchers, like Oswalt, Wandy and especially Moehler, all were hugely affected by poor batting. Moehler went from one of the few bargains on the team to being one of the biggest detriments. Oswalt also underperformed his contract by about 3.7 million, though he was one of a handful of Astros to contribute double-figure value.

On the plus side, Michael Bourn and Hunter Pence combined to produce 33.9 million of the Astros overall 95 million value. Both are playing on pre-arbitration contracts, so were the two biggest values on the team. Wandy was also a huge value, adding 11.8 million over his 2.6 million dollar contract, but lost 3.8 million because of his hitting. That seemed a bit high to me, but as I thought about it more, the only way pitchers can't hurt their team batting-wise is to pitch in the American League, and I'm not sure Wandy would have put up the same value if he had pitched in the tougher league.

Who else were values? Jeff Fulchino came in fourth, with a 3.2 million positive difference, while Mike Hampton was fifth at 2.6 million. It also didn't hurt that Hampy added 0.8 million with his bat. Chris Sampson and Alberto Arias were the next two on the list and the last two that topped 2 million in positive difference between their contracts and their worth. Anther surprise for me was Edwin Maysonet outperforming his contract by one million.

The other side of that coin is the guys who underperform, and the worst at that was Carlos Lee. At -7.9 million, he had the biggest negative difference on the team. The only two players coming close to that were Darin Erstad and Jose Valverde, who both clocked in with negative-5 differences. Doug Brocail and Tim Byrdak were the next two on the bottom, followed by Geoff Geary and Roy Oswalt. The reason so many of these guys are relievers is that their salary greatly exceeded their worth. In fact, the only one who added positive value to the team was Valverde at 3 million. Quick shot analysis of this is that relievers really are fungible, so it's silly to pay more than a million dollars for all but the best closers. Otherwise, you're wasting monetary resources on a position you can fill many different ways.

As for Lee, that contract is an absolute albatross. His hitting is great and all, but his defense hurts the club out in left field and he won't always hit like he's doing now. On the current open market, you can definitely find a bargain that can hit 30 homers and bat .280 for left field without spending 10 million per year, much less the 18.5 Lee earned in 2009.

That's all the analysis I'm going to do now, because I'll get into more detailed looks at player performance later, but I've included the data I used for the entire team for you to peruse below. Look for more posts on the managerial hiring process too as we get more information.

	WAR	Salary	Difference
Bourn	18.700	0.435	18.265
Pence	15.200	0.439	14.761
W. Rodriguez	14.400	2.600	11.800
Fulchino	3.600	0.400	3.200
Hampton	4.600	2.000	2.600
Sampson	2.700	0.449	2.251
Arias	2.500	0.402	2.099
Quintero	2.300	0.610	1.690
Rodriguez	3.100	1.500	1.600
Gervacio	1.900	0.400	1.500
Blum	2.600	1.200	1.400
Keppinger	1.700	0.428	1.273
Maysonet	1.400	0.400	1.000
Norris	0.400	0.400	0.000
Sadler	0.000	0.402	-0.402
Towles	0.000	0.402	-0.402
Manzella	-0.200	0.400	-0.600
Kata	-0.300	0.400	-0.700
Berkman	13.600	14.500	-0.900
Tejada	11.800	13.000	-1.200
Paronto	-1.100	0.500	-1.600
Bazardo	-1.200	0.405	-1.605
Ortiz	-1.100	0.750	-1.850
Michaels	-1.200	0.750	-1.950
Boone	-1.200	0.750	-1.950
Lopez	-1.600	0.400	-2.000
Hawkins	1.500	3.500	-2.000
Johnson	-2.000	0.375	-2.375
Moehler	-0.200	2.300	-2.500
Wright	-2.100	0.425	-2.525
Matsui	2.400	5.000	-2.600
Coste	-2.500	0.460	-2.960
Backe	-1.500	1.500	-3.000
Paulino	-2.600	0.405	-3.005
Smith	-2.800	0.500	-3.300
Oswalt	10.300	14.000	-3.700
Geary	-2.000	1.700	-3.700
Byrdak	-3.200	1.000	-4.200
Brocail	-2.200	2.500	-4.700
Valverde	3.000	8.000	-5.000
Erstad	-4.100	1.750	-5.850
Lee	10.600	18.500	-7.900

This is way the Astros season ends: Not with a bang, but a whimper

DyingQuail — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 12:58:48 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

My feelings exactly, Aaron.

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I've done pretty much anything but think about the Astros today. There were too many mixed emotions to sort through; too many other tantalizing distractions to latch onto. I've watched a dismal Fantasy Football day crush my spirits, the Texans look weak in the second half against the Oakland Raiders, talked HLP down from the ledge as he fretted about his ability to clinch our rotisserie keeper-league (he did, Congrats buddy, you earned it).

I didn't even watch the Astros game. I couldn't.

I saw the standard tweets about it on my desktop client (Tweetie) and that was enough depression for me. The most critical thinking I could bring myself to do about the Astros was a few expletive deleted texts and about five minutes worth of phone conversation between HLP and myself. I don't know why it is that I feel this way, or I have felt this way for the last few weeks, but I think the catharsis of knowing that it's over has finally allowed me to snap out of my funk.

I can still remember when the glimmer of hope I had for this season was born. BtB's Sky Kalkman emailed me the spreadsheet for his Community Projection Project and I rushed to input all the projections. Without any fan embellishment, we were something like an 80 win team. It was late December and I was shocked. Flabbergasted. Almost afraid to actually publish the result publically. I probably wrote about seven drafts of an email I never sent Sky explaining—politely—that I thought his spreadsheet was broken.

We spent the next few weeks tweaking and refining the inputs and suddenly we were an 82 win team. Then in late March Ivan Rodriguez and Jeff Keppinger landed in Houston and we quickly became an 83 win team. There was probably inflation, but a .500 season seemed realistic, and there were all the variables in place to allow for some kind of meaningful and exciting season to get underway.

April and May saw the NL Central become a smorgasbord of stories that had thrown the conventional off-season predications of how the Central would play out, out. Yet the Astros struggled for most of it and seemed destined to be mired in irrelevancy, even as opportunity knocked. I managed to avoid excess worry and pessimism during this stretch by being wrapped up in graduating from college and then not living like a member of the real world for the next month (that month will easily go down as the most enjoyable month of my life). Perhaps that's what insulated my glimmer of hope and kept me set up for the inexorable Astros-depression that has plagued me as of late (does semi-ignorance count as denial?)

June arrived and the Astros were quietly good. The responsibility of covering the team on a daily basis allowed for me to be slow to notice the fact that the Astros were stringing together victories and closing ground in the Central. So it was a very plesant surprise when I finally allowed myself to consider the possibility of the Astros becoming...contenders(?!).

By the time the All-Star break was upon us, I don't think that there were many of us who weren't starting to harbor something akin to excitement. When we opened the second half by splitting the series with the Dodgers, I'd say most of us were starting to place ourselves in the camp of believers. I know I was.

Sure, there was a mountain of statistical evidence based on macro-level measures that could demonstrate how the Astros couldn't possibly succeed, but we saw a different picture. We saw a team that had been felled by Jose Valverde's monstrously wicked calf strain, Roy Oswalt's post-WBC inconsistency, and Lance Berkman's weird odd-year-early-season-under-perfomance. We were buoyed along by the fact that Wandy, in spite of his two weeks of HR/FB regression, was pitching consistently and finally living up to all of our hopes. There was Bud Norris tilling the farm in the PCL with a low 2.00 ERA and thus the hope that our rotation could only get better—not worse.

This all led to what I'll consider to be the peak of the Astros 2009 Season: July 20th-22nd. The NL Central leading Cardinals were going to be at MMP and the Astros had quite the opportunity on their hands. Prior to the Astros three game sweep of the Cards, I wrote the following:

Unlike previous years when the Astros and their fans had to hope and pray throughout the month of September that other teams would drop the ball while the Astros took care of other opponents, the Astros will be firmly in the drivers seat this time around from July 20th on...

...I consider this series to be the keynote address to how the Astros will handle the opportunity they're presented. They're only real opponent is themselves. This is a division, and even an Wild Card race, that has proven to be anything but decided ninety plus games into the season. So the Astros, flawed as they are, have legs to stand on in the search for October baseball, but we've all yet to figure out is how sturdy those legs ar e.

As we all know, the legs weren't that sturdy. Our offense collapsed into a black hole of paltry OBP (.305) and our farm hands and scrap heap veterans were anything but consistent as the season pressed forward on the mound for us. Even Roy Oswalt couldn't hold up.

But I don't want to get to that part yet.

There was a week long period after that where it genuinely felt like the Astros were going to do it. They were going to shock all of us and make a legitimate run at the playoffs. Actually take their fate in their own hands and dispatch their NL Central rivals. Maybe it was a fan's bias, but I did. Hell, I even put my neck on the chopping block and tried to show up SBN's own RJ Anderson when he wrote about how screwed the Astros actually were. I still don't think his argument was overwhelming, completely thought out, or entirely objective, but, in the end, he was right and I was wrong if you obscure the issue somewhat.

I think this is known as the first stage of grief: denial. What I was really saying and hoping was: "The Astros are fine, there's a way these obvious defects can be overcome. I can't say exactly how, I just believe they can."

Did I partake in too much of the Kool-Aid? Probably. But I really don't see how I couldn't. It felt like the stars were aligning. It felt like my sports luck was going to turn around. It felt like the baseball gods were going to pay us back for Hurricane Ike, the Selig/McLane/Cubs/Milwaukee fiasco, Joe Creede's ridiculously dumb defensive luck circa October 2005—everything.

It happened, though. Not a bang, but a whimper. The Astros dropped a series to the Mets at home. Then dropped series against Chicago on the road were swept by a Matt Holliday powered Cardinals. At the time it felt disconcerting, but certainly nothing to lose the faith over. After all it, was still just early August. It was impossible for me to fathom that it would be the start of a 25-42 run for the Astros. Reading that number right now it still seems impossible.

The team just started to slip way in bits and pieces. Chris Sampson went down, exposing the limits of the set-up men. Alberto Arais faltered and would go down with injury and later go under the knife. Bud Norris, whose was dazzling in his debut in St. Louis, started to get shelled. Yorman Bazardo got a call up to fill in for the now comical merry-go-round of Feliepe Paulino, Mike Hampton, Brian Moehler, and the released Ortiz, but struggled as well. Every game I oscillated between the anger and bargaining phases of grief. It was either: "What the hell is (object of my ire) doing/thinking, this is absurd. I can't believe they're finding new and impressive ways to blow this" or "Please baseball gods, please, just let them pull it together. It's not to late for them salvage something."

By the time September was underway, I was in full blown depression, the fourth stage. I didn't want to write about this team, I didn't want to think about this team, I didn't want to watch this team. Every loss was too painful; every glimmer of hope from Norris or Paulino tainted by my own jadedness. As I mulled over our options for 2010, the prospect of trying to make this team a contender on the budget Drayton McLane will provide did nothing to pull me out of my funk.

In the depression stage of grief, apparently one disconnects oneself by being silent. By not allowing their thoughts to be challenged or corrected by someone who could bring hope. Even though I wasn't writing, I was still reading. Most of you have continued to find the silver lining. Me, I couldn't stop adhering to Jerry Garcia's adage that every silver lining has a touch of gray.

Sure, Bud Norris has flashed brillance, but I've been stuck on knowing that he'll turn up injured before May rolls around next year. Paulino? He'll probably be on the Wandy Rodriguez path to greatness and take until 2013 to finally arrive. Wesley Wright's conversion to starter? Could Ed Wade be any more desperate for his owner to throw him a lifeline in the form a $10 million to go grab a worth while pitcher?

I could go on, but I think you get the point. That's pretty much how I've been thinking and feeling about the Astros for the last month. It's been awful.

Sometime around 8:30PM though, I finally reached the final stage, acceptance. Was this season a disappointment? Yes. Even so, it still provided a six to eight week stretch where people believed. Where people cared. Even though there's no one thing I can find to blame the Astros soul-crushing, for me, atrophy into the team that limped their way to a 25-42 final stretch, it's ok. I'm not sure there is. This once meteorically hot team just whimpered its way through the majority of the second half to a dismal 5th place finish in the NL Central. From one game behind on July 22nd, to seventeen games back on October 4th. It's probably fitting that they were shut out.

There's always next year.

It's still too soon for me to cling to that adage with the kind of hope I did last December, but at least that's what we have to focus on now.

WAR Lords of the Diamond: Greatest. Rockies. Ever.

Jabberwocky — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 02:30:19 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Todd Helton features prominently in any conversation about the greatest Rockies ever.

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Previous Sessions in the WAR Lords Series:

C I 1B I 2B I 3B I SS I LF I CF I RF I RP I SP

Now that I've discussed the greatest Rockies ever by position according to WAR, I'll summarize my data and reveal my All-Time Rockies squad. In all, 224 Rockies have been weighed, measured, and (mostly) been found wanting in this quest, yet some have clearly risen above the rest.

Of course, due to the fact that the Rockies' history is only 17 years old, there isn't exactly a deep pool of players to choose from in this study. Therefore, I will be ranking all players who produced a career WAR of over 3 wins at a position for the Rockies or was a significant player for the team.

Here was my methodology:

1. I only used stats accumulated when they played for the Rockies.

2. The categories used were: career with Rockies, best three consecutive years with Rockies (establishes average production), and best single year with the Rockies (establishes peak production).

3. If the players spent less than three years with the Rockies, their career total was used in the other metrics as well. If the player was at different positions for different years, the player would be considered for the position in which he had the most starts (or greatest impact, at my discretion) for the Rockies.

4. The players were ranked in each category. Those ranks were added and averaged out--the lowest average rank was the most valuable Rockie.

5. The data used was only for seasons that were completed (e.g. not 2009).

Remember, I'm using Sean Smith's historical WAR database (not Fangraphs) to compile these numbers (with a big assist to the fantastic Baseball Reference; here is the glossary of the terms Smith uses and an explanation of WAR's calculation for position players and pitchers. Note: the calculation that Smith uses is different than the one used in my article, so the numbers at Fangraphs will be slightly different than the ones I present in these articles.

After the jump I'll outline the greatest (and worst) Rockies squad as found using my methodology, as well as the best single year performances.

The All-Time Greats

Remember, this ranking takes into account best career WAR, best consecutive 3-year WAR period, and best single WAR year to accurately capture a player's greatness and to mitigate somewhat the fact that WAR is a counting stat and is heavily influenced by longevity. Slash stats are (Career WAR / 3 Year WAR / 1 Year WAR).

Starting Lineup

C: Jeff Reed (1996-1999) (4.3 / 4.6 / 1.8)
1B: Todd Helton (1997-2008) (53.9 / 21.7 / 8.8)
2B: Eric Young (1993-1997) (9.5 / 7.3 / 3.8)
3B: Garrett Atkins (2003-2008) (11.1 / 10.8 / 6.4)
SS: Troy Tulowitzki (2006-2008) (6.2 / 6.2 / 5.6)
LF: Matt Holliday (2004-2008) (16.9 / 15.9 / 7.3)
CF: Juan Pierre (2000-2002) (3.0 / 3.0 / 2.4)
RF: Larry Walker (1995-2004) (44.1 / 18.3 / 9.0)

Bench

Vinny Castilla (1993-1999, 2004, 2006) (15.1 / 10.1 / 4.5)
Ellis Burks (1994-1998) (10.8 / 10 / 7.6)
Andres Galarraga (1993-1997) (11.3 / 6.3 / 3.6)
Jamey Carroll (2006-2007) (5.1 / 5.1 / 4.3)
Chris Iannetta (2006-2008) (3.2 / 3.2 / 2.7)

Batting Order

1. Eric Young
2. Troy Tulowitzki
3. Larry Walker
4. Todd Helton
5. Matt Holliday
6. Garrett Atkins
7. Juan Pierre
8. Jeff Reed

Starting Rotation:

SP1: Pedro Astacio (1997-2001) (9.9 / 9.3 / 5.3)
SP2: Aaron Cook (2002-2008) (10.3 / 7.3 / 3.4)
SP3: Jason Jennings (2001-2006) (9.1 / 6.6 / 4.2)
SP4: Kevin Ritz (1994-1998) (6.6 / 6.5 / 3.9)
SP5: Armando Reynoso (1993-1996) (7.6 / 5.0 / 3.1)

Bullpen (in order of importance):

Steve Reed (1993-1997, 2003-2004) (9.2 / 5.6 / 3.1)
Brian Fuentes (2002-2008) (8.8 / 5.2 / 2.7)
Curtis Leskanic (1993-1999) (5.2 / 3.2 / 3.1)
Bruce Ruffin (1993-1997) (5.7 / 4.6 / 1.9)
Jerry Dipoto (1997-2000) (4.7 / 4.4 / 2.1)
Jose Jimenez (2000-2003) (4.2 / 4.2 / 2.3)
Darren Holmes (1993-1997) ( (3.8 / 3.6 / 2.3)

Analysis

The construction of this team historically tells us that in the last few years the Rockies have played several of the best position players in team history (three of them are on this squad). After 2009 is completed Chris Iannetta will supplant Jeff Reed at starting catcher while several other players shoot up the leader boards.

From a pitching standpoint, the bullpen is heavily comprised of guys that were in the 1997 bullpen (five of them!). After this year not much will change as far as relievers go, but Ubaldo Jimenez's stellar 2009 will place him in the rotation as the second-ranked starting pitcher. It should be noted that Ellis Burks would probably supplant Juan Pierre in center field.

The team that is best by my metrics is by and large the best team by Career and 3 Year WAR totals too, but there are definitely some interesting outlier seasons by others that shake up the best single year roster.

The Greatest Single Season Performances

Collected below is an unholy amalgamation of the best individual seasons by position in Rockies history. If these players had all produced at this level in the same year, they would have produced 67.2 batting WAR (20.4 off the bench), 19.2 relief WAR, and 22.1 starting pitching WAR for a total of 88.1 WAR. This team should statistically win 136.7 games out of 162 (a replacement level team would win 48.6, or 30% of its games).

Starting Lineup

C: Chris Iannetta (2008) 2.7
1B: Todd Helton (2000) 8.8
2B: Jamey Carroll (2006) 4.3
3B: Garrett Atkins (2006) 6.4
SS: Troy Tulowitzki (2007) 5.6
LF: Ellis Burks (1996) 7.6
CF: Juan Pierre (2001) 2.4
RF: Larry Walker (1997) 9.0

Bench

Matt Holliday (2007) 7.3
Vinny Castilla (1998) 4.5
Kazuo Matsui (2007) 4.1
Eric Young (1996) 2.7
Jeff Reed (1998) 1.8

Batting Order

1. Jamey Carroll
2. Ellis Burks
3. Larry Walker
4. Todd Helton
5. Garrett Atkins
6. Troy Tulowitzki
7. Chris Iannetta
8. Juan Pierre

Starting Rotation:

SP1: Pedro Astacio (1999) 5.3
SP2: Joe Kennedy (2004) 4.7
SP3: Jason Jennings (2006) 4.2
SP4: Marvin Freeman (1994) 4.0
SP5: Kevin Ritz (1995) 3.9

Bullpen (in order of importance):

Gabe White (2000) 3.3
Steve Reed (1997) 3.1
Curtis Leskanic (1995) 3.1
Brian Fuentes (2005) 2.7
Manuel Corpas (2007) 2.4
Jose Jimenez (2000) 2.3
Darren Holmes (1995) 2.3

Analysis

Obviously I'd play Holliday in left field and shift Burks to center, improving the lineup (and overall WAR) immensely, but those were the best players by WAR at their position in one season. From this year's team, Carlos Gonzalez is close to surpassing Juan Pierre, while Ubaldo Jimenez will jump atop the starting rotation, where he will perhaps be joined by Jason Marquis (depending on how his last start turns out). I'll talk more about this next week.

Rockies fans have been privileged enough to witness in the last couple of years some of the greatest seasons ever--Smith's WAR calculations are park-adjusted, so when Coors Field changed due to the humidor's implementation so did the formula for calculating WAR. As a result, early pitchers get a large boost (and hitters a large detraction) relative to today's players because of the pitcher's hell that was early Coors Field/Mile High.

And finally...

Single Season Goats

This would be the worst single-season lineup the Rockies could put on the field (worst players starting). The sad thing is that many of them did play a large role for the Rockies. The damage: -15.9 hitting WAR (-11.2 from the starting lineup), -7.5 relief WAR, and -8.5 SP WAR for a total of -31.9 wins above replacement. This team should statistically win 16.7 games out of 162.

Starting Lineup

C: Kirt Manwaring (1997) -2.1
1B: John Vander Wal (1997) -0.7
2B: Luis A. Gonzalez (2006) -1.0
3B: Vinny Castilla (1993) -0.5 [soon to be supplanted by Garrett Atkins, 2009 (-0.9)]
SS: Neifi Perez (1998) -1.2 (and yes, he played all 162 games)
LF: Dante Bichette (1999) -2.8
CF: Choo Freeman (2004) -1.2
RF: Brad Hawpe (2008) -1.7

Bench

Cory Sullivan (2006) -1.1
Steve Finley (2007) -1.1
Jason Bates (1996) -0.9
Jeff Baker (2007) -0.7
Gary Bennett (2002) -0.9

Batting Order

1. Neifi Perez
2. Choo Freeman
3. Vinny Castilla
4. Dante Bichette
5. Brad Hawpe
6. John Vander Wal
7. Kirt Manwaring
8. Luis A. Gonzalez

Starting Rotation:

SP1: Dennis Stark (2004) -1.9
SP2: Joe Kennedy (2005) -1.9
SP3: Brian Rekar (1996) -1.6
SP4: Andy Ashby (1993) -1.6
SP5: Mike Hampton (2002) -1.5

Bullpen (in order of suckitude):

Shawn Chacon (2004) -1.7
Todd Jones (2003) -1.4
Mike Dejean (1999) -1
Darren Holmes (1994) -0.9
Jose Acevedo (2005) -0.9
Jeremy Affeldt (2006) -0.8
Javier Lopez (2004) -0.8

Analysis

This team is horrible, but some of the names on the list were just having a statistical anomaly of a bad season or were getting their first look at major league hitting/pitching. In fact, several went on to have nice careers. Several of them did not, and for good reason.

Next week, I'll look at how the 2009 Rockies performed individually and as a team from a value standpoint.

WAR Lords of the Diamond (Starting Pitchers)

Jabberwocky — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 16:15:09 -0000

More photos » by Reed Saxon - AP

Where does Aaron Cook rank among Colorado's starting pitchers?

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Previous Sessions in the WAR Lords Series:

C (with methodology) I 1B I 2B I 3B I SS I LF I CF I RF I RP

For the next step in my ongoing quest to quantify the greatest Rockies ever by position, I'm revealing the best performers at starting pitcher (through the 2008 season).

Obviously this is not a comprehensive list of all starting pitchers, but all the pitchers who have made a large contribution to the Rockies as starters were weighed, measured, and (often) found wanting. All in all, 54 players were ranked.

Once again, I'm using Sean Smith's historical WAR database (not Fangraphs) to compile these numbers (with a big assist to the fabulous Baseball Reference; here is the glossary of the terms Smith uses and an explanation of how pitching WAR is calculated. Note: the calculation that Smith uses is different than the one used in my article, so the numbers at Fangraphs will be slightly different than the ones I present in these articles.

As I explained last week, starting pitchers are MUCH more valuable than relief pitchers when one is measuring WAR, by and large, due to the fact that WAR is a counting stat. Starting pitchers throw more innings and therefore have a greater influence on the game than do relievers, which stands to reason. This is also the reason why a pitcher like Franklin Morales, who could develop into a dominant closer, would be better off just remaining a starter.

Remember, relief pitchers are often failed starting pitchers who are given an easier task that their skillset will allow them to handle. Nearly every starting pitcher in baseball could be a useful relief pitcher. Very few relief pitchers could be useful starting pitchers. Replacement-level starters can be useful relievers; Juan Rincon is neither.

In any case, what both Smith and the fine folks at Fangraphs have shown is that star starting pitchers are just as valuable if not more so than star position players (and their contracts often bear this point out). Even though a dominant starting pitcher will only play once every five games, they have such a huge influence on whether their team wins the game that it mitigates the difference in playing time between the position player and, say, Troy Tulowitzki.

For instance, this season Ubaldo Jimenez (Colorado's top pitcher) has been worth 5.5 WAR while Tulowitzki (the top position player) has accumulated 4.7 WAR. On a macro scale, the Rockies' pitching staff has actually contributed more WAR to the team (23.3, 2nd in MLB) than have the position players (16.5, 17th in MLB).

But I digress.

Like the denizens of the bullpen, a club's starting rotation is often in a constant state of flux due to injuries and inconsistent performance. The fact that the Rockies have only had five pitchers start more than two games this year is quite frankly amazing--the MLB average for this is closer to eight starters. I would say, though, that starting pitching performance is by and large more predictive overall than relief pitching performance due to the larger sample sizes involved in any one year's stats. A reliever can be unduly harmed or helped by luck when used less often--a trend that can see an unpleasant (or pleasant) change the subsequent year.

In order to qualify for consideration for this list the pitchers had to be one of the top five or six starters in innings pitched in a given year or throw over 50 innings for the team in a mostly starting role. It's a relatively deep group, with 14 starting pitchers having delivered at least one league average season (2 WAR) as a starter for the Rockies.

Starting Pitchers

Note: some of these pitchers were both starters and relievers for the Rockies. I have placed these players in this category subjectively on the basis of where I believe they provided the greatest impact to the Rockies. In case of an average rank tie, career WAR is the tiebreaker. I'm ranking eight players to reflect the fact that the modern starting rotation generally uses eight pitchers in any given year.

Keep in mind when reading this list that WAR is a counting stat and therefore longevity counts for quite a bit, especially in this category. Also, Smith's numbers seem to be park-adjusted, therefore pre-humidor pitchers are given a nice park-factor boost to their less-than inspiring numbers (small consolation for having to pitch in an offensive haven.

1. Pedro Astacio

Career WAR: 9.9 (2nd)
Top Three Seasons: 9.3, 1999-2001 (1st)
Top Season: 5.3, 1999 (1st)
Average Rank: 1.33

Originally signed out of the Dominican Republic as an 18 year old by the Dodgers, Pedro Astacio came over to the Rockies as a 27 year old before the waiver trade deadline in 1997 in exchange for Eric Young. Needless to say, trading EY was not originally a popular move with fans, but Astacio soon won over Colorado partisans with his sublime pitching even at Coors Field.

Astacio's third season with the Rockies, 1999, was the greatest pitching season in franchise history (though it will soon likely be surpassed by Jimenez this year) with 5.3 WAR. The 29 year-old righty threw 232 innings, managing a 17-11 record and 210 strikeouts (a club record to this day) despite a 5.04 ERA. Considering that Coors Field in 1999 had a Park Factor of 127 (this year = 107), it was pretty tough to succeed using conventional pitching stats. Astacio's 4.56 FIP and 8.15 K/9 (2.91 K/BB) hold up pretty well in such a poor pitching environment.

In any case, Astacio was traded by Colorado to Houston for homegrown pitcher Scott Elarton at the 2001 trading deadline as he approached free agency. Oddly enough, Astacio's performance never was even replacement level for the rest of his career even when pitching in better environs.

TOGB celebrated Astacio in an edition of Rockies Retro.

2a. Aaron Cook

Career WAR: 10.3 (1st)
Top Three Seasons: 7.3, 2006-2008 (2nd)
Top Season: 3.4, 2008 (6th)
Average Rank: 3

You might not have realized it, but Aaron Cook has been pitching for the Rockies since 2002 (and he's signed through 2011 with a mutual option for 2012). His longevity and consistency (he's been over 1 WAR his last five seasons) are what puts the Rockies' 2nd round pick in 1997 near the top of this leaderboard and to the summit of the Rockies' career WAR leaderboard.

Cook's best year was his All-Star season last year, when in the awful beginning of the year he was the only thing keeping the season from becoming a complete disaster. His 16-9 record and 3.96 ERA in 211.1 IP got him on the All-Star team and his 3.76 FIP garnered him 3.4 WAR. His 4.37 career ERA is tops in Rockies history.

Going forward, Cook is a solid middle rotation starter that is locked into the Rockies for a couple of more years. He is already the longest-tenured Rockies starter, and could be one of the few players in today's game to pitch a long career with one club.

2b. Jason Jennings

Career WAR: 9.1 (3rd)
Top Three Seasons: 6.6, 2004-2006 (3rd)
Top Season: 4.2, 2006 (3rd)
Average Rank: 3

Talk about selling an asset high. Jason Jennings, the jewel of the Rockies' player development system, Rookie of the Year in 2002, coming off of his best season, was traded to the Houston Astros after the 2006 season (and before his third year of arbitration) for Willy Taveras, Taylor Buchholz, and Jason Hirsh. Dan O'Dowd was lambasted for this trade by most, yet in hindsight this move looks like an absolute steal.

Why? Because Jennings fell off a cliff once leaving the Rockies, sustaining arm injuries and pitching poorly enough that he's now the Rangers' mop-up man. Despite the hard times that have befallen JJ, let us remember his glory.

The 16th overall pick of the 1999 draft out of Baylor, JJ rocketed through the Rockies' system and made his big league debut in 2001, going 4-1 and having a rather memorable debut, pitching a five pitch shutout and hitting a home run. Jennings only got better in 2002, going 16-8 and winning the ROY. However, it was JJ's 2006 that cemented his status as a front line pitcher (or so thought poor Ed Wade).

In 2006 Jennings compiled a 9-13 record but had a 3.78 ERA (4.09 FIP) with 206 Ks (1.67 K/BB) in 212 IP, good enough for 4.2 WAR. And then O'Dowd sold high. What a move that was. His WAR since 2006: -1.1, -0.8. While I appreciate what JJ did for the Rockies, I'm glad O'Dowd let go when he did.

4. Kevin Ritz

Career WAR: 6.6 (6th)
Top Three Seasons: 6.5, 1995-1997 (4th)
Top Season: 3.9, 1995 (5th)
Average Rank: 5

Kevin Ritz, a 4th round pick of Detroit in 1985, was picked as the 46th pick of the 1992 expansion draft by the Rockies. Ritz was a rotation regular by 1994 and had a nice two season stretch in 1995 and 1996. Ritz went 11-11 with a 4.21 ERA (4.15 FIP) with 120 Ks (1.85 K/BB) in 173.1 IP for the Wild Card-winning Rockies in 1995 (3.9 WAR). He followed it up with a 2 WAR 1996, going 17-11.

Ritz's career ended when he was released by the Rockies during the 1998 season after he was unable to overcome arm injuries.

TOGB wrote a nice profile on Ritz in Rockies Retro.

5. Armando Reynoso

Career WAR: 7.6 (4th)
Top Three Seasons: 5.0, 1993-1995 (6th)
Top Season: 3.1, 1993 (8th)
Average Rank: 6

Armando Reynoso, originally purchased by the Braves from his Mexican professional team, was selected by the Rockies with the 58th pick in the expansion draft. Reynoso quickly became Colorado's best pitcher, posting a 3.1 WAR in the team's inaugural season. However, his career was quickly detoured by chronic arm injuries, otherwise he'd be higher on this list. The righty, who possessed an awesome pick-off move, did manage to put up 1.1 and 2.6 WAR seasons in 1995 (half year) and 1996.

The Rockies traded the plucky finesse pitcher to the Mets after the 1996 season for Jerry DiPoto as he became more expensive given his injury risk. Reynoso won a World Series ring with the Diamondbacks despite performing poorly in 2001, his last real MLB season.

TOGB wrote a profile on Reynoso in Rockies Retro.

6. Marvin Freeman

Career WAR: 4.6 (8th)
Top Three Seasons: 4.6, 1994-1996 (T-8th)
Top Season: 4.0, 1994 (4th)
Average Rank: 6.67

Ladies and Gentleman, the single season ERA record holder for the Colorado Rockies! A 31 year-old Marvin Freeman was picked up off the scrap heap by the Rockies after the 1993 season, and though he only had one good season with the team, what a blaze of glory it was!

The imposing (6'7") righty was, quite frankly, amazing in 1994 for the Rockies. In only 112 innings (18 starts), Freeman went 10-2 with 67 Ks (2.91 K/BB) and a 2.80 ERA (3.84 FIP), worth 4.0 WAR!

Of course, in 1995 and 1996 everyone was reminded that Freeman wasn't actually this good (0.9 and -0.3 WAR) and he went away quietly--he was released at the waiver deadline in 1996.

7. John Thomson

Career WAR: 7.2 (5th)
Top Three Seasons: 4.8, 1997-1999 (7th)
Top Season: 2.7, 1997 (10th)
Average Rank: 7.33

Drafted by the Rockies in the 7th round in 1993, Thomson exceeded the production of 1992 2nd round draft pick Mark Thompson, who I often confuse him for. Thomson reached the big leagues in 1997 as a 23 year old and had immediate success, posting 2.7 WAR (7-9, 4.71 ERA) and following that up with another 2.7 WAR (8-11, 4.81) season in 1998.

Unfortunately, the injury bug bit Thomson hard after 1998, and he managed only half seasons in 1999 and 2001 with no season at all in 2000. Finally healthy in 2002, Thomson was traded at the July deadline with Mark Little to the Mets for a package that included Jay Payton. After the trade Thomson had a few injury-free years and performed well for the Rangers and the Braves, then was ultimately undone by more injuries.

8. Jeff Francis

Career WAR: 6.2 (7th)
Top Three Seasons: 5.7, 2006-2008 (5th)
Top Season: 2.5, 2006 (13th)
Average Rank: 8.33

The 9th overall pick in the 2002 draft out of Canada, Jeff Francis moved rapidly through the Rockies' system and was with the big club by 2004 as a 23 year old. Francis finished sixth in the ROY voting in 2005, his first full season, then enjoyed two very nice years in 2006 and 2007.

The soft-tossing lefty equaled Ritz's and Astacio's franchise wins mark with his 17-9 record in 2007 (he had 2.2 WAR) and finished 9th in the Cy Young Award voting. However, he suffered a torn labrum after a tough 2008 and has been rehabbing the injury since then.

The Physicist has one year left on his contract ($5.75 million) with a $7 million club option for 2010. It will be interesting to see if Francis can ever return to his early form and make it worthwhile for the Rockies to exercise that option. I've taken a pretty pessimistic view on this injury from the start, so my money is that Francis will never contribute significantly to the team again. I would love to be proved wrong though.

Other great single seasons include Joe Kennedy's 2004 (4.7 WAR) and Roger Bailey's 1997 (3.2).

Career Underachievers: Mike Hampton (-1, though he was worth 2 WAR batting), Denny Neagle (1.1), Scott Elarton (-2.9), and Livan Hernandez (-1.2).

Others of note: Jimenez (3.4 and on his way to a place high on this list very soon), Darryl Kile (4.1), Jamey Wright (4.6), Shawn Chacon (2.2, but 3.9 as a starter), Josh Fogg (-0.6) Greg Reynolds (-1.5).

Next week I'll reveal the unholy amalgamation that is the Colorado Rockies All-WAR team.