SB Nation - Tanyon Sturtze

Rays Family Tree: The Dead Trade String of 2002

FreeZorilla — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 12:00:16 -0000

by Mark J. Terrill - AP

Jorge De La Rosa was traded straight up for ex-Ray Tony Graffanino in 2006.

2000 Trade: Tony Graffanino for Tanyon Sturtze (Granted Free Agency 2002)

Pre-Trade:

Tony Graffanino was signed as a free agent by the Rays prior to the 1999 season. Originally a 10th round pick of the Braves in 1990, the 28-year-old utility man started 17 games a piece at both second base and shortstop for the Rays in 1999 where he posted a line of .313/.364/.473 in 164 plate appearances.

Tanyon Sturtze was initially chosen in the 23rd round of the 1990 draft by Oakland. The White Sox signed the right-handed pitcher following the 1998 season where he spent all but one game in AAA. Pitching for Charlotte, Sturtze went 9-4 with a 4.05 ERA while striking out 107 and walking 41 in 104.1 innings.

Post-Trade:

Tanyon Sturtze was in the rotation for a little over two years for the Rays, making 65 starts with an ERA of 4.58, a FIP that floated in the 4.70-4.90 range, and a K.9 in the 5-5.5 range. He had a disastrous 2002 season where he earned the nickname "Ten Run Sturtze" when he led the majors in losses (18), hits allowed, earned runs allowed, and walks allowed. Sturtze was granted free agency following the 2002 season. Somehow, he's still floating around, having spent most of the past few years in the minor,s most recently with the Dodgers. In 2008, after being designated for assignment, he pleaded to stay with the big league club and was rewarded with a stint as a bullpen catcher through the playoffs. He was released in May of 2009 with a career FIP of 5.03.

Tony Graffanino continued his utlityman ways with the White Sox until he was granted free agency after the 2003 season. During his time in Chicago he posted a line of .271/.344/.411. Graffanino has played for seven teams including Cleveland in 2009 where he somehow OPSed .341 in 24 plate appearances, and would spend most of the year in AAA. Most notably he was traded by Kansas City to Milwaukee for Jorge De La Rosa at the 2006 all-star break. Sadly for the Royals, they moved De La Rosa to the Rockies as part of a conditional deal just prior to his breakout last season.

Happy Birthday, Tanyon Sturtze

Adam J. Morris — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 20:28:11 -0000

Tanyon Sturtze

#37 / Pitcher / Los Angeles Dodgers

Height: 6-5

Weight: 230

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Oct 12, 1970

Happy birthday to Tanyon Sturtze, who turns 39 today.

Sturtze was in the Ranger system in 1997 and 1998, appearing in 9 games for the Rangers in 1997, and generally serving as organizational depth in Oklahoma.

In 2000 and 2001, he had a nice little run for the D-Rays, making him yet another in the long line of pitchers who have left the Rangers and had a brief stint of success elsewhere which made fans rail about how the Rangers gave away YET ANOTHER good pitcher, but then went back to being sub-mediocre for the Rays and the Yankees.

He had 8 appearances in Albuquerque this year, so I guess he's technically not retired yet.

Yanks tee off then shut down, let up then sweep out in 6-4 Win

CrazyYankeeChick — Wed, 22 Jul 2009 21:20:28 -0000

More photos » by Bill Kostroun - AP

New York Yankees' Brian Bruney needs more than a 5-run cushion to work out the kinks in his game...

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I always am grateful for the Monday morning crosswords; it’s like the newspapers know that the first day back from the weekend is going to be hard enough without having to labor through a 13-letter word that so far has _ _N_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _E filled in. Which is too much of a challenge that close to the weekend…And I guess the same merciful mastermind behind this practice also was the point person on the Yankees post-ASB scheduling committee.

But while the tic-tac sized "2-1 Final" games of the weekend may be have been the Tuesday puzzle, today’s afternoon game was a little less manageable.

Facing the worst pitcher of the worst team, the Yankees should have known that this Orioles match could be too good to be true, especially after jumping to a 4-run lead in the first.

Such an effortlessly dominant burst that it could have easily doubled as the opening scene of pretty much any underdog baseball flick when it looks like the juggernaut'll crush 'em from the get-go...

But it wasn't that cookie cutter, after all. Jason Berken at first lived up to his anti-hype, as Alex Rodriguez (surprise) tacked up NY's first ribbie with a single that brought in Derek Jeter. (ARod is definitely just loaded for bear in his campaign to not only collect ribbies, but to make sure they’re >2 run differential ribbies at all times.)

Then one by one the lineup teed off on the hapless Baltimore defense. The Yankees have been steadily metamorphosizing into this army of hybrid sluggers/lead-off men. Their role players no longer are so strictly delineated, like the Juan Pierre's and Justin Morneau's and Albert Pujols’ of the league. Instead, we see our bottom of the order completely dissolve the pitcher’s awareness of where exactly he is in respect to the lineup.

After ARod started them off, Robinson Cano and Nick Swisher throw their hats in the ring, with back-to-back singles that lassoed in Mark Teixeira, Hideki Matsui, and Jorge Posada.

A.J. saunters into the second inning and pitches like a pitcher who knows he needs only not spontaneously combust to score the W. He took the shutout into the seventh, whiffing 6, walking only 3, while donating 6 hits to the Os' cause.

After Posada did his best 2007 ARod impression with a solo in the 4th, the Yankees just sort of stuttered around in the batter’s box. One go-thru of the order and all of a sudden Berken throws down the gauntlet like he’s freaking Woody Harrelson in White Men Can’t Jump and cuts through the Yanks like a hustling pro. (That may be a little bit of an exaggeration, since he actually only struck out 1. Even 1 seemed a lot considering he had a pitching arsenal about as stocked as a 22-year-old's fridge.)

As for the Baltimore offense, the charge was led by the guy whose "6Ks and .143 against AJ!" stigma was all but shackled to his cleats at the start of the game: Adam Jones then went 4 for 5, which included a 9th inning solo that made things realllly uncomfortable for Yankee fans. Ditto for Nick Markakis, whose HR immediately following Jones’ prompted Girardi to abandon the Brian Bruney Not-For-Profit program he initiated in the 9th.

In fairness to Joe, the Yanks had 5 on the board, and barring a Tanyon Sturtze/Kyle Farnsworth meltdown, it’s a safe bet that Bruney can act like he isn't an infant discovering his hand for the first time. Instead, Girardi took no chances and brought in Mariano Rivera for about the 87th game in a row (2 consecutive, 5 of 6 post-ASB games) to put out the fire and hand the Yanks’ their 6th straight win.

Girardi played this excellently. Initially it appeared to be a case similar to my dad finding a shirt that fits him and then proceeding to buy 2 dozen boxes of identical shirts, ie Girardi discovering the bullpen formula and deciding to purchase 2 dozen innings just like it. BUT, it works when AJ can go 7 and Hughes and Mo only need to split the other remaining ones. Two straight sweeps for the Yanks, as they usher the A’s into the Bronx, and pit belated birthday boy CC Sabathia against Vin Mazzaro.

The Yankees look better than they’ve looked all year, which includes that explosive streak they tore open in May. Right now they’re capitalizing on assets and doing what needs to be done to find an edge. That’s more valuable to me than a Mardi Gras fireworks display of slugging.

Tomorrow we'll see them fill in another couple of letters in a 13-letter word they've already got a bead on: CONVALESCENCE.

Not Fade Away - Minor League Updates 4/21/09

meercatjohn — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 16:03:48 -0000

Rolling Stones - Not fade away 1964 (via fritz51138)

Don't tell Eric Milton, Jeff Weaver, and Tanyon Sturtze that their careers are over. The three combined last night to shut out the Iowa Cubs 7 - 0. Milton didn't just pitch a masterful six innings he also contributed a three run double to break the game open. Milton and company may not be needed by the Dodgers this year but with the number of major league teams having pitching problems he might just snag a job before to long. Rest assured this start generated some interest in GM rooms around baseball.

Isotopes:
Win 7 - 0 as Hector Luna goes 4/4.

Chattanooga Lookouts:
Lookouts lose 5 - 1 as they only score one run for the 2nd game in a row. Lambo chips in a double but the rest of the team was in slumber mode. Hoffman is now 0 for 9 since being highlighted.

Inland Empire 66ers
They roll 11 - 4 behind 24 year old 1st baseman Eduardo Perez who went 4/4 which included a double & home run. Mr. Perez is now the triple crown leader of the California League in the best way. Leads in Avg, OBA, Slug%, OPS, wOBA. He's kind of doing what Carlos Santana did last year. He's old for the league but hitting is hitting so lets give him some True Blue love

Great Lake Loons
Redding was whacked and gone by the 3rd but the team came back with two in the eighth and four in the ninth to pickup the victory 7-6. Kyle Russel had the game winning hit and Javy Guerra picked up his 3rd save in as many chances. Guerra is still unscored on five appearances.

Hu: Can It Be Now?

Eric Stephen — Sat, 04 Apr 2009 19:28:20 -0000

More photos » by Ed Andrieski - AP

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Brewers (22-10-3) @ Dodgers (16-20), 7:10pm

Joe Torre is expected to announce the Opening Day 25-man roster after tonight's game at Dodger Stadium against Milwaukee. Chin-Lung Hu is one of the Men At Work vying for the final infield spot. Hu is fighting with two others, Blake DeWitt and Juan Castro, for this spot. The argument for keeping DeWitt is that he's the best hitter of the three; the only drawback is if the club feels there wouldn't be enough playing time for this spot, thus hindering DeWitt's development. But really, this position requires the ability to play shortstop, something DeWitt is new to. It's hard to expect DeWitt -- an excellent defensive third baseman -- to be able to hold his own defensively at SS.

That's where Hu steps in. Hu is a defensive wizard, able to play either middle infield spot with ease. I would argue the club doesn't lose anything defensively when Hu steps in for Furcal. Hu has overcome his vision problems, which led to a putrid 2008 at the plate, to become "the star of the spring," according to Joe Torre. Castro is the other option here, since he has the reputation of a defensive stalwart -- even though that is no longer the case. Factor in the .290 career OBP for Castro, plus the need to make a roster move to acommodate him, and it's clear if the club adds Castro, It's a Mistake.

Besides Hu, another Dodger hoping to avoid being sent Down Under is Ramon Troncoso. He's fighting for the final bullpen spot, and his spot on the 40-man roster gives him an advantage over someone like Tanyon Sturtze for that role (not to mention, the ability to pitch of course). Will Ohman will also have a spot in the pen, but he may require a week or so in the minors to get ready for the season (he hadn't pitched this spring until last week). So someone like Sturtze could still end up on the roster as a placeholder until Ohman is ready, although perhaps Scott Elbert would be a better choice given his southpaw status (and, again, the ability to pitch).

An important thing to keep in mind about these roster thoughts is that this is simply the 25-man roster to start the season. There will be many contributors for the Dodgers this season -- the Dodgers used 46 players last season, for instance -- as they attempt to Overkill their NL West foes.

Today's game brings us closer to the merciful end to the longest spring training ever. The Dodgers do in fact play one game in San Francisco tomorrow, but aside from fifth starter James McDonald, no regulars or semi-regulars are scheduled to make the trip north.

Clayton Kershaw starts on the mound for the Dodgers today, and is opposed by Dave Bush.

Clayton Kershaw

#22 / Pitcher / Los Angeles Dodgers

Height: 6-3

Weight: 220

Bats: L

Throws: L

Born: Mar 19, 1988

Dave Bush

#31 / Pitcher / Milwaukee Brewers

Height: 6-2

Weight: 205

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Nov 09, 1979

The game will be televised on KCAL or, if you are not in the Los Angeles area, MLB Network (at least in theory).

MLB.com Box Score | Gameday

Giants 10, Dodgers 8: Down Goes Milton

Eric Stephen — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 01:51:05 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Chiu - AP

Will Doug Mientkiewicz and Blake DeWitt be teammates next week?

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The Dodgers dropped their final spring game in Arizona, losing 10-8 in Scottsdale to the Giants. A few notes from the game:

The Giants' 19-year old uber prospect Madison Bumgarner allowed only a Juan Castro double in his three innings. I have a feeling Bumgarner, rated by Baseball America as the ninth best prospect in baseball, will be pitching at AT&T Park sooner than we think
Eric Milton gave up 8 runs, bringing his spring totals to 38 hits, 29 runs, and five homers in 19.2 innings. After the game, it was announced that Milton, as well as Tanyon Sturtze -- who might still make the club -- agreed to go to Albuquerque, per Ken Gurnick. Of course, this all but assures James McDonald the fifth starter spot.
The Dodgers outrighted Danny Ardoin to AAA, removing him from the 40-man roster. Ardoin has ten days to accept or decline the assignment. If he decides to go to Albuquerque, Ardoin will backup A.J. Ellis while earning a relatively high minor league salary of $210,750.
Hiroki Kuroda had a solid, albeit short, final spring tuneup, allowing one run in three innings. Perhaps more importantly, he allowed no flyballs.
Tomorrow's game against the Angels starts a run of three straight games at Dodger Stadium. The game, a 7:10 start, will be televised by KCAL, MLB Network, and MLB TV, depending on your preference or location.

White Sox 6, Dodgers 1

Brendan Scolari — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 00:04:43 -0000

Some notes about the game:

For the second game in a row the Dodgers didn't get an extra-base hit.
After pitching five scoreless innings, Randy Wolf got hammered and couldn't get out of the sixth inning, giving up four runs while only recording one out.
Furcal and Manny both had two hits. Andre Ethier also reached base twice, on a hit and a walk.
Although Casey Blake was expected back in the lineup after the birth of his third child, he was still absent today.
Some good showings by the relievers. Guillermo Mota struck out the only two batters he faced and Jonathan Broxton pitched a scoreless inning. Tanyon Sturtze also pitched but allowed two runs in his sole inning of work.
Five non-roster players could make the team, which hasn't happened in more than twenty years. The five are Doug Mientkiewicz, Juan Castro, Jeff Weaver, Tanyon Sturtze, and either Erick Threets or Brian Mazone. Joe Torre said Sturtze's chances are improving after being considered an afterthought earlier in the spring. The article offers us this gem, "Sturtze has been used primarily to escape jams... It's a job best suited for a fearless veteran and most of the pitchers the Dodgers have in camp are young". Great...
Tommorow the Dodgers will play the Padres at Camelback Ranch at 1:05 PM. Eric Stults will be getting the start in what may be his final chance to make a claim for the 5th starter spot. Among the things to look forward to, Josh Lindblom is scheduled to pitch, Manny will get to play left field once again, and Casey Blake is expected back in the lineup.

Know Your Foe: Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants

Poseidon's Fist — Tue, 24 Mar 2009 23:15:07 -0000

Happy Tuesday. Opening Day is 13 days away! That means it is time to evaluate who exactly will be representing our divisional foes on the field in 2009. This week I run down what the most likely 25-man roster will be for the Dodgers and Giants, and the D-Backs and Padres will follow next Monday.

Note on projections: All projections are courtesy of CHONE (except Steve Holm, which is a Bill James projection due to CHONE ignoring Holm's existence). Some bench players and bullpen arms were projected for quite exorbitant at-bats or innings, so they were scaled linearly down to reasonable numbers.

Note on format: Bold items represent locks. For example, all eight starters for the Dodgers are set, but Blake DeWitt and Delwyn Young are still fighting for a bench spot. And off we go...

Los Angeles Dodgers

Lineup:

All eight starters in the lineup are set, with only the batting order left to decide. Rafael Furcal will hit first, followed by Orlando Hudson, but the rest is yet to be determined.

Order	Player	Position	AB	BA	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA
1	Rafael Furcal	SS	560	.284	11	51	.358	.412	.347
2	Orlando Hudson	2B	486	.276	10	54	.353	.407	.340
3	Andre Ethier	RF	489	.292	16	69	.366	.468	.365
4	Manny Ramirez	LF	483	.290	32	101	.399	.542	.408
5	James Loney	1B	527	.294	13	80	.355	.446	.352
6	Russell Martin	C	500	.286	14	74	.384	.434	.366
7	Matt Kemp	CF	498	.299	16	74	.353	.476	.365
8	Casey Blake	3B	490	.259	20	66	.336	.439	.341

This line-up would be expected to produce 5.332 runs/game as constructed (or a max of 5.410 with optimal orientation). This equates to 863.8 total runs during the season.

Judging by wOBA, the starting lineup features one elite hitter (Ramirez), zero very good hitters, seven above average hitters (Furcal, Hudson, Ethier, Loney, Martin, Kemp and Blake), zero average hitters, and zero below average hitters.

Ladies and gentlemen, the Dodgers are no longer punchless. In fact, their offense is quite scary. You might be surprised to know they are projected to score north of 11 total runs more than the Rockies projected lineup.

Bench:

Brad Ausmus was signed to replace Danny Ardoin as Russell Martin's backup. Ausmus should get more playing time than Ardoin, but Martin still hogs the plate like no other catcher. Loretta will be the chief pinch hitter, and Juan Pierre will be on the bench solely because his salary makes him untradable.

Player	Position	AB	BA	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Brad Ausmus	C	186	.212	2	17	.299	.280	.269
Mark Loretta	IF	247	.262	2	23	.338	.342	.309
Juan Pierre	OF	222	.283	1	14	.328	.357	.312
Delwyn Young	OF	171	.262	5	24	.320	.429	.328
Blake DeWitt	IF	252	.252	6	30	.316	.378	.308

Delwyn Young is out of options, so expect him to fill in at the fifth outfielder slot over the recently signed Doug Mientkiewicz - he would also provide the main power threat off the bench. The final bench spot will go to an infielder who can play short. Blake DeWitt is the best offensive option, although he could struggle defensively at short. Chin-Lung Hu and Juan Castro are DeWitt's competition.

You just have to feel bad for DeWitt. Jeff Kent retired, Nomar Garciaparra and Casey Blake were free agents. After a solid rookie year in 08, DeWitt had a starting job...until GM Ned Colletti brought in three free agents that could push him clear off the roster.

Rotation:

Joe Torre has constructed his rotation for a RLRL beginning. Randy Wolf hopes to soften the losses of Derek Lowe and Brad Penny.

Player	IP	W	L	FIP	WHIP	K
Hiroki Kuroda	158.0	9	8	3.98	1.31	106
Randy Wolf	124.0	7	7	4.42	1.41	103
Chad Billingsley	161.0	10	8	3.68	1.33	156
Clayton Kershaw	115.0	7	6	4.28	1.44	102
Claudio Vargas	108.0	6	6	4.71	1.38	80

This gives Chad Billingsley the home opener. The fifth starter position is still a roulette wheel. None of the contenders have impressed, so James McDonald, Eric Stults, Eric Milton, and even 2008 2nd round pick Josh Lindblom has a longshot chance. In January, an additional game was added for April 7, so the Dodgers can't take advantage of the schedule to put off their decision.

Bullpen:

Jonathan Broxton will get his first shot as a full-year closer, though Hong-Chih Kuo has closer stuff. Guillermo Mota returns to LA, while 2008 pleasant surprsie Cory Wade is guaranteed a spot.

Role	Player	IP	W	L	FIP	WHIP	K/9
Closer	Jonathan Broxton	72.0	5	3	2.78	1.15	10.88
LH Set-up	Hong-Chih Kuo	45.0	3	2	2.69	1.18	11.00
RH set-up	Guillermo Mota	56.0	3	3	4.46	1.42	7.58
RH set-up	Cory Wade	53.0	3	3	4.00	1.25	7.30
2nd LHP	Scott Elbert	43.0	2	2	4.34	1.47	10.47
Relief	James McDonald	57.0	3	3	5.10	1.39	7.72
Relief	Jeff Weaver	50.0	2	3	5.19	1.41	5.59

Scott Elbert is has the lead in the LHP race, and James McDonald is assured of a relief role if he doesn't become the fifth starter. The final spot in the bullpen is likely between Jeff Weaver and Claudio Vargas, though Eric Stults, Ramon Troncoso, Brian Mazone, Tanyon Sturtze, Erick Threets, and Lindblom remain in contention.

Why the Dodgers will win the NL West:

The Dodgers boast exceptional lineup by divisional standards, with practically zero question marks. The bullpen is strong and capable of reining in strikeouts. With Manny Ramirez in the fold, they are the favorite in the division.

Why the Dodgers will NOT win the NL West:

This rotation is as weak as Los Angeles has fielded in some time. Kuroda and Wolf are decent rotation pieces, but LA will strongly be relying on the young arms of Billingsley and Kershaw. Then consider the disaster of a fifth starter and Manny's potential undoing, and it's easy to imagine a scenario where another NL West foe leapfrogs the defending champs.

San Francisco Giants

Lineup:

Emmanuel Burriss could replace Kevin Frandsen in the starting lineup, but the other seven starters are decided. The lineup has yet to be announced, but it could follow as such:

Order	Player	Position	AB	BA	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA
1	Randy Winn	RF	563	.281	12	55	.341	.412	.336
2	Edgar Renteria	SS	534	.283	11	59	.345	.408	.335
3	Fred Lewis	LF	.446	.262	9	46	.346	.404	.335
4	Bengie Molina	C	453	.276	16	71	.314	.435	.327
5	Pablo Sandoval	3B	477	.283	11	68	.315	.426	.324
6	Travis Ishikawa	1B	431	.248	16	67	.322	.432	.331
7	Aaron Rowand	CF	523	.273	14	64	.338	.421	.335
8	Kevin Frandsen	2B	382	.288	6	44	.343	.411	.334

That line-up is worth a mere 4.448 runs/game (peaking at 4.473 arranged differently). That's the same as just 720.5 total runs.

Look at the wOBA like we did with the Dodgers. From that we can conclude that the starting lineup features zero elite hitters, zero very good hitters, six average hitters (Winn, Renteria, Lewis, Ishikawa, Rowand and Frandsen) and two below average hitters (Sandoval, Molina). Take your pick of statistical analysis - all project the Giants to have an abysmal offense.

Bench:

Rich Aurilia is all but assured of a bench spot, and Nate Schierholtz will earn one as well due to being out of options. Burriss will either start or find a spot on the bench, and Steve Holm is the only contender as the backup catcher.

Player	Position	AB	BA	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Rich Aurilia	IF	377	.263	10	43	.320	.398	.318
Nate Schierholtz	OF	311	.291	9	44	.331	.471	.348
Emmanuel Burriss	IF	323	.270	2	34	.331	.347	.308
Steve Holm	C	181	.238	5	21	.312	.365	.306
Andres Torres	OF	208	.251	4	19	.328	.388	.321

Eugenio Velez has attempted to learn OF to get the fifth bench spot, but it might not be enough. Juan Uribe, who signed this offseason, also looks to be an odd man out. Andres Torres appears to have a solid shot at the 5th OF spot with his hot spring; he is 31and spent each of the last three seasons in AAA with a different organization.

Rotation:

Player	IP	W	L	FIP	WHIP	K
Tim Lincecum	154.0	10	7	3.05	1.23	175
Randy Johnson	109.0	6	6	3.85	1.27	96
Matt Cain	189.0	11	10	3.84	1.32	166
Barry Zito	176.0	8	11	4.81	1.55	120
Jonathan Sanchez	120.0	6	7	4.02	1.39	116

By far the Giants' strength, the rotation has all but been set since Randy Johnson signed. Like Joe Torre, Bruce Bochy is constructing his rotation in a RLRL fashion.

Bullpen:

The Giants acted quickly to sign Affeldt and Howry, who will set up for Brian Wilson. Sergio Romo is currently sidelined with an elbow injury and won't be ready for Opening Day, but there will be a spot waiting for him when he returns soon thereafter.

Role	Player	IP	W	L	FIP	WHIP	K/9
Closer	Brian Wilson	65.0	4	4	3.71	1.38	8.72
LH Set-up	Jeremy Affeldt	79.0	5	4	3.70	1.35	7.86
RH set-up	Bob Howry	63.0	4	3	3.62	1.25	7.00
2nd LHP	Jack Taschner	59.0	3	4	4.20	1.44	7.78
Relief	Sergio Romo	60.0	4	6	3.76	1.20	9.15
Relief	Merkin Valdez	30.0	1	2	4.69	1.50	7.88
Relief	Luis Perdomo	56.0	3	4	4.99	1.41	7.71

Jack Taschner's familiarity card might trump the hand of Alex Hinshaw, but Taschner could be traded, opening up the possibility for Hinshaw to be the middle relief southpaw. Luis Perdomo is a Rule 5 pick from St. Louis, and his decent spring points to a possible spot in the pen. Non-roster invitee Brandon Medders and Merkin Valdez will battle for the other opening.

Why the Giants will win the NL West:

With the Cy Young winners in tow, San Francicso just might have the best starting rotation in the division - only Arizona is otherwise in contention. Then consider the emerging Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez. The bullpen will be decent, especially with the back end headed by All-Star closer Brian Wilson. The lineup has candidates to significantly exceed projections (such as Pablo Sandoval), so it is possible they could score just enough for the pitchers to lead them to the top.

Why the Giants will NOT win the NL West:

It remains to be seen whether Lincecum and Cain's arms can hold up after ridiculous abuse in 2008. A long term injury to either would be debilitating to their divisional hopes. Zito and RJ are tailing off in their respective careers. And then there's the offense. The lineup is constructed solely of veterans past their prime and unproven youngsters. Even with a helthy Lincecum and Cain, don't expect the lineup to produce enough for divisional aspirations.

Thanks to Eric Stephen and Grant for their assistance in achieving accuracy.

Happy Birthday, Kevin Brown

Eric Stephen — Sat, 14 Mar 2009 14:00:09 -0000

Dodgers at Brewers, 1:05pm
(plus a "B" game against the White Sox in the morning)

After four days at home -- the Dodgers' last road game was Monday in Surprise to play the Rangers -- the Dodgers load up the buses and make the 8-mile trip to Maryvale to play the Brewers. However, since the Dodgers also go on the road to play Milwaukee on March 25, the Dodgers have more than one shot to beat the Brewers wearing the road grays.

On the 44th birthday of the man with the largest total contract in Dodger history, Russell Martin figures to play since he got Friday off. Ken Gurnick of MLB.com reported Joe Torre would continue to play Martin every other day for the foreseeable spring future.

Clayton Kershaw

#22 / Pitcher / Los Angeles Dodgers

Height: 6-3

Weight: 220

Bats: L

Throws: L

Born: Mar 19, 1988

Clayton Kershaw, who has given up 4 runs in 6.2 innings this spring, starts on the hill against the Brewers. Former bullpen catcher extraordinairre Tanyon Sturtze will also get some mound time, and according to Ken Gurnick, so will Ramon Troncoso. However, since Troncoso pitched Thursday, might using him on such short rest suggest Troncoso is no longer being considered for a starting spot?

Manny Parra

#26 / Pitcher / Milwaukee Brewers

Height: 6-3

Weight: 210

Bats: L

Throws: L

Born: Oct 30, 1982

Manny Parra will start for the Brew Crew against the Blue Crew, and will be the only Manny playing in the game, per Tony Jackson.

In the "B" game at Camelback Ranch, Eric Stults returns from Siberia to start. Scott Elbert will also toe the rubber against the White Sox.

As for today's birthday boy -- no, not Jose Nunez; calm down Terry Adams! -- here is why I look at Kevin Brown's Dodger tenure as a positive. In signing Brown, we got:

The best ERA+ (147) in Dodger history in...
872.2 IP, the 16th most in the NL from 1999-2003
Two years of Jeff Weaver, who provided 46 quality starts in his two Dodger years
Yhency Brazoban -- not so much for the relief pitching, but for the inspiration for this awesome t-shirt
Part of Manny Ramirez. Don't laugh...following the Kevin Baconish connectivity, Brown begat Weaver, and Weaver begat Bryan Morris (#26 overall pick in the 2006 draft as compensation for Weaver signing with the Angels), and Bryan Morris (and Andy LaRoche) begat Manny Ramirez at last year's trading deadline.

So sit back and relax and have a Happy Kevin Brown Day everybody!

MLB.com Box Score

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Spring Training Jobs Up For Grabs: Orlando Hudson Take II Edition

Eric Stephen — Wed, 11 Feb 2009 16:00:11 -0000

With the signing of Orlando Hudson, I thought it would be prudent to revisit our look at what jobs are at stake this spring...

For the most part, barring injury, the Dodgers have a pretty set roster heading into spring training. Since ~~pitchers and catchers report Saturday~~ spring games start Wednesday, let's take a look at the probable 25-man roster, and the spring training battles that will round out the edges of the roster.

The Locks

Catchers (2)
Russell Martin, Brad Ausmus

Infielders (5)
James Loney, Orlando Hudson, Casey Blake, Rafael Furcal, Mark Loretta

Outfielders (5)
Manny Ramirez*, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Juan Pierre, Delwyn Young

Starting Pitchers (4)
Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda, Clayton Kershaw, Randy Wolf

Relief Pitchers (4)
Jonathan Broxton, Hong-Chih Kuo, Cory Wade, Guillermo Mota

*Assuming Manny eventually signs of course

That's 20 of 25 spots that can safely be written in pen. Here's how the other five spots will be filled:

Utility Infielder

1) Tony Abreu
As a 22-year old in 2007, Abreu put up a .309 OBP, 19 points higher than Castro's career high. However, Abreu's first move might have to be simply introducing himself to Ned Colletti, Joe Torre and the rest of the coaching staff. Abreu hasn't been healthy in a year and a half, so it's quite likely that he has been forgotten. Last week, Diamond Leung of the Press-Enterprise reported this when Colletti brought up the club's infield situation:

Colletti also would be interested in another infielder "if the right player came along," and he mentioned the Dodgers already have Mark Loretta, Chin-lung Hu, Ivan DeJesus Jr., Hector Luna and Juan Castro.

Notice anyone missing there? Abreu might be the best of the middle infield bunch, but he's only an afterthought right now in the organization's eyes. He's got a lot of work to do.

Since spring practice has started, Abreu has indeed started to make his mark. Again, per Diamond Leung of the Press-Enterprise:

The Tony Abreu lovefest continues. "To me, Abreu is really a perfect fit for a utility guy. But we have to be comfortable that he's going to be there for you. He's got high marks right now. He seems to be a different guy, too."

It seems right now like the utlity infielder spot is Abreu's to lose.

2) Juan Castro
On the plus side, the soon-to-be 37-year old Castro can still pick it. Or at least he has the reputation for being able to field. Castro seems to be slipping a bit:

Fielding at Shortstop
Year	Innings	Plus/Minus	UZR	FRAA
2005	568.2	---	7.9	15
2006	548.2	+5	2.3	2
2007	89.1	+1	-0.3	-1
2008	408.2	-4	-4.2	-1

However, even if he lives up to his defensive reputation, Castro simply cannot hit. In the last five years, of all the players with at least 1,000 plate appearances (there are 357 of them in all), only John McDonald has produced worse than the anemic 59 OPS+ by Castro. Castro has had a plate appearance in 14 different seasons. Outside of the .400 OBP he pulled off in his 5-PA first season (1995), Castro has never had an OBP higher than .290.

Castro is on a minor-league deal, and will earn $700,000 if he makes the big club. If he's not on the 40-man roster by June 30, he can ask for his release. ~~Sadly, he might be the favorite for the position~~. A few weeks ago, I thought Castro had the inside track for this spot, but today I feel Abreu will have every chance to win the spot.

3) Chin-Lung Hu
Hu made the opening day roster as the utility man last season, and even started 23 of 30 games at SS once Rafael Furcal went down with injuries in May. However, Hu only hit .132/.175/.197 during that span, and looked completely lost at the plate. Hu later claimed to have vision problems, which caused him problems all year. It was quite a fall for the Dodgers' 3rd-best prospect per Baseball America in 2008. Last year's Prospect Handbook gives us the best reason for Hu to win the utility spot:

His well-above average defensive package -- with the arm strength, footwork, and hands of a Gold Glover -- always will be his best asset.

Hu is a defensive wizard, but he might be better served by playing everyday in AAA. Kensai of Fire Ned Colletti Now has a very informative profile of Hu here.

4) Blake DeWitt
Up until a few days ago, the second base job appeared to belong to DeWitt, with perhaps a healthy dose of Mark Loretta against LHP. While DeWitt would make a fine utility man at either 2B or 3B, his presence is on the roster is redundant with Mark Loretta. If DeWitt could play SS, he might have a better shot at making the club. It's important to remember DeWitt is still only 23 years old, and playing everyday at AAA for one year wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.

5) Ivan DeJesus, Jr.
DeJesus is another defensive wizard at SS, with very good plate discipline (through age 21, he has a .385 OBP in four minor league seasons, despite only limited power -- .369 SLG). Some of those doubles (he hit 43 in the last two years) could turn into homers as DeJesus matures. He was invited to big league camp, but like Hu would be better served playing everyday in the minors.

6) Hector Luna, Luis Maza, et al
They are part of the "If Wilson Valdez made it, why can't I?" club.

5th Starter

1) Jason Schmidt
If he's healthy at all, Schmidt will claim this spot. Then again, if he's healthy the devil will probably lace up his ice skates. Schmidt, with one win as a Dodger and one season left on his contract, needs seven wins in 2009 to pass Darren Dreifort on the dollars per win scale:

Pitcher	Contract	Salary	Wins	$$$ per Win
Darren Dreifort	2001-2005	$55 million	9	$6.1 million
Jason Schmidt	2007-2009	$27.5 million*	1*	$27.5 million

*Schmidt's total contract is $47 million, so 8 total wins will push Schmidt to $5.875 million per win

2) Claudio Vargas
Vargas has battled injuries his entire career, never pitching more than 167.2 innings in a season. Right elbow pain limited Vargas to 37 innings last season with the Mets. Like Schmidt, if healthy Vargas will have a spot on the pitching staff, whether it be as the 5th starter or long relief man. The Dodgers are hoping for a Chan Ho Park redux here. Vargas is set to make the major league minimum of $400,000, but can earn $1.4 million in incentives based on games started and days on the active roster.

3) Ramon Troncoso
While Cory Wade got the bulk of the attention in the "rookie in the bullpen" department (much of it deserved), Troncoso was a pleasant surprise last season, riding his power sinker to strike out a batter per inning, and post a 3.00 FIP. The Dodgers made the decision to convert Troncoso to a starter, and could end up reaping the benefits of it very soon. David Cameron of Fangraphs called Troncoso the next big thing:

No matter where he ends up, Troncoso has shown all the skills necessary to be a terrific major league pitcher. Just on the strength of his sinker, he’s going to be a nightmare for right-handed hitters, and his slider and curve have made enough progress that he’s a legitimate option as a potential relief ace or a starting pitcher. For whatever reason, the world hasn’t jumped on the Ramon Troncoso bandwagon yet, but I’d imagine that will change twelve months from now.

Whether he makes the rotation right out of spring training or a few months down the road, Troncoso could make significant impact on the staff. I would imagine if he doesn't win the 5th starter job out of spring training, Troncoso will end up starting every 5th day for either Albuquerque or Chattanooga.

4) Eric Stults
Stults had a couple things going for him:

1) In 14 starts over the last 3 years, Stults has put up a 4.08 ERA in just over 5.3 IP per start, while averaging 3.24 BB/9 and 6.84 K/9.

2) In 20 minor league starts for Las Vegas in the hitter-happy Pacific Coast League last year, Stults put up a 3.82 ERA and averaged 7.8 K/9

However, Joe Torre hasn't taken a liking to Stults, banishing him for two months after only one bad start in Coors Field, despite a relatively strong showing in his five previous starts. Stults seems destined to be the insurance starter at AAA, but the Dodgers could do worse for a 5th starter.

If I had to guess, I say Stults will make at least 10 starts for the Dodgers this year, especially since the injury-prone Schmidt and Vargas are ahead of him on the depth chart.

5) Shawn Estes
Signed to a minor league deal, Estes seems like a long shot to make the club. Say what you will about this pitching staff, but the Dodgers have cornered the market on pitchers who put up a 4.74 ERA for the Padres in 2008:

Pitcher	IP	ER	ERA
Randy Wolf	119.2	63	4.74
Shawn Estes	43.2	23	4.74

6) Eric Milton
Signed to a minor league deal, the lefty Milton hasn't pitched in a game since May 8, 2007. He has been recovering from Tommy John surgery in the last year and a half. Since Milton came into the majors in 1998, only Scott Elarton and Jose Lima have given up more HR/9 than Eric Milton.

The Bullpen (3 Spots)

If both Schmidt and Vargas are healthy, I suspect one of them will end up in the bullpen, with Vargas the most likely in the pen. Stults and Estes also have a shot to be the long man as well. Here's a look at the rest:

1) A free agent, yet unsigned
Per Diamond Leung of the Press-Enterprise, Colletti is still looking to sign another veteran in the pen:

"Doesn't make any difference if it's left-handed or right-handed. It'll give us a little more of a foundation and a deeper club."

Past reports have linked the Dodgers to lefties Dennys Reyes , Will Ohman, ~~or Luis Ayala~~, or maybe even the return of Joe Beimel.

2) James McDonald
A starter for most of his minor league career, the Dodgers seem to like him more out of the bullpen, based on his increased velocity last fall in all of 11.1 innings. Baseball America rated McDonald as having the best changeup and best control in the Dodgers' farm system. I tend to think McDonald would be better served as a starter, but if he can contribute out of the bullpen to start the season I'm OK with that.

3) Scott Elbert
Another one-time starter, Elbert was more or less forced to the bullpen due to a myriad of injuries as a minor leaguer. Elbert has a plus fastball and curveball, and Baseball America said last year:

He profiles as a No. 2 or 3 starter, and he could wind up as a top-flight closer if moved to the bullpen.

Given Kuo's injury history, Elbert has an excellent chance to make the roster as the second lefty in the bullpen, especially if Reyes, Ayala, or somebody else isn't signed.

4) Greg Miller
Miller is intriguing because he has all the talent in the world -- before his injuries he was one of the top prospects in the game. ~~Since he is out of options, the Dodgers would have to expose him to waivers in order to send him to the minors if he doesn't make the club in the spring~~. Thanks to astute reader Silverwidow for pointing this out, but Miller actually has a rare 4th option year so he still has a year before the tipping point. I think Miller will get every opportunity to add his live left arm to the Dodger pen, but it will be a longshot.

Kensai has another excellent breakdown of Miller here (you really should check out his site, Fire Ned Colletti Now, for more great information like this).

If Miller makes the club, that would be a great story, but he'll have to improve his control in order to sniff the majors. Over the last four years, Miller has struck out 9.88 batters per nine innings, but the excitement is dampened by the fact that he has also walked 224 batters in his last 225 innings (8.96 per 9).

5) Yhency Brazoban, Tanyon Sturtze, Jeff Weaver, Eric Milton, et al
With all the young talent, it would appear the chances of these non-roster invitees are quite slim. Vargas and Estes seem more likely to take the veteran roles than any of these guys. However, we might need another bullpen catcher...

I am assuming a 12-man pitching staff coming out of the gate, due to the need for a 5th starter right away, but that of course could change.

Well, enough talk. It's time for the spring battles to begin. We can all sit back and relax with today's secret ingredient.