SB Nation - Justin Upton

Fantasy Baseball: Raygu's MDC Mock Draft Results

raygu — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 20:00:28 -0000

by Mark J. Terrill - AP

28 days ago: FILE - In this Oct. 8, 2009, file photo, St. Louis Cardinals' Albert Pujols hits a single during the sixth inning of Game 2 of the National League division baseball series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, in Los Angeles. Pujols was unanimously voted National League MVP on Tuesday, Nov. 24, 2009, becoming the baseball first player to repeat since Barry Bonds won four in a row from 2001-04. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill, File)

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I participated, I use that term loosely, in a 12 Team Mixed League mock draft over at Mock Draft Central on Monday night. I missed alot of my picks because I was busy following the Roy Halladay trade rumors. But I made sure I made my fist three picks, as I was picking from the first position.

Here is how the first two rounds went:

R1 P1 Albert Pujols

R1 P2 Hanley Ramirez

R1 P3 Chase Utley

R1 P4 Alex Rodriguez

R1 P5 Ryan Braun

R1 P6 Mark Teixeira

R1 P7 Tim Lincecum

R1 P8 Matt Kemp

R1 P9 Prince Fielder

R1 P10 Miguel Cabrera

R1 P11 Evan Longoria

R1 P12 David Wright

The second round is after the jump:

R2 P1 Ian Kinsler

R2 P2 Justin Morneau

R2 P3 Ryan Howard

R2 P4 Joe Mauer

R2 P5 Carl Crawford

R2 P6 Grady Sizemore

R2 P7 Jacoby Ellsbury

R2 P8 Mark Reynolds

R2 P9 Jason Bay

R2 P10 Troy Tulowitzki

R2 P11 Zack Greinke

R2 P12 Justin Upton

With the first pick in round 3 I selected Matt Holliday.

I was surprised Upton and Holliday were still available that late in round 2.

Poll

What is more shcoking about Raygu's mock draft?

NL West in Review: Right Fielders

Poseidon's Fist — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 19:00:18 -0000

The NL West boasted three very strong offensive right-fielders last season. Justin Upton and Brad Hawpe each made All-Star appearances, while Andre Ethier took home a Silver Slugger. What you might not realize is just how close those three were in offensive production last season.

With the fearsome trio eating up at least 580 PA each in right field, they represented the resounding majority of PA for their teams. Brad Hawpe and the Rockies led the way with a park-adjusted .367 wOBA, followed by J-Up and the Snakes at .366, followed by Ethier and the Dodgers at .365.

Naturally, what separates the three teams in overall value then is defense, which proves to be quite the unequalizer.


Teams	Players	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA*	WAR
1. Arizona	5	.294	26	96	.359	.498	.366	4.85
2. Los Angeles	6	.266	34	120	.344	.504	.365	2.56
3. San Francisco	5	.262	8	57	.316	.380	.312	1.76
4. Colorado	6	.270	25	98	.370	.486	.367	1.68
5. San Diego	8	.212	21	76	.280	.366	.298	-0.39

Hawpe was so statistically weak defensively that the Giants actually passed the Rockies on the list, while Will Venable and Randy Winn each passed Hawpe for overall value.

To compare the teams visually (note the blue batting bars for Arizona, Colorado and Los Angeles):

For the full player rankings, click here.

For the raw data and calculations, check this Google Docs link. For team capsules, take the jump

Arizona

2009 in Review

I think we can officially say that the Diamondbacks' 51-111 2004 campaign was worth it for Arizona fans. The pitiful finish assured Arizona with the top pick in the 2005 draft. Their choice just finished his second season as the primary starter, appearing in the All-Star game at just 21. Of the three predominant offensive RF in the division last year, he was the only one to avoid being a black hole defensively. Indeed, he was quite an asset with the arm and range he displayed. Alex Romero posted a near league average wOBA as Upton's primary backup, while Gerardo Parra hit .400 in 28 PA as a RFer.

Justin Upton

#10 / Right Field / Arizona Diamondbacks

Height: 6-2

Weight: 205

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Aug 25, 1987

2010 in Preview

Upton's salary was just $412,000 last year, but he also received $1.3million as part of his then-record setting signing bonus. Upton is neither arbitration eligible or a Super Two, so he will make chump change again next season, though his final $2mil installment of his signing bonus will come his way. Obviously, he'll be in right field at Chase Field until finances dictate otherwise.

Colorado

2009 in Review

Despite having the best overall OBP and wOBA in the division, the Rockies fell to fourth in the division due to Brad Hawpe's poor defense. In fact, according to UZR, he cost the Rockies more defensively than any player in the major leagues this season, the second consecutive year he managed that feat (Ryan Braun and Ken Griffey Jr. were worse in 2007). Over the last three years, Hawpe's UZR is 33% worse than any player in MLB. Unbelievably, Carlos Gonzalez actually had a worse UZR/150 in RF than Hawpe, though that's certainly a combination of unfamiliarity and sample size. Hawpe certainly did plenty of damage with the bat overall, earning a spot in the All-Star Game and peaking with a .353 batting average on June 3, the final game before the Rockies reeled off "The Streak."

Brad Hawpe

#11 / Right Field / Colorado Rockies

Height: 6-3

Weight: 205

Bats: L

Throws: L

Born: Jun 22, 1979

2010 in Preview

This has been much discussed here. After making $5.75mil last season, Hawpe is due $7.5mil in 2010 in the last year of the 3-year extension he signed after Rocktober07. With Colorado's very notable outfield depth, Hawpe is most valuable as a trade chip. Dan O'Dowd and Jim Tracy continuously act as if trading Hawpe is the last thing on their minds, which of course means nothing. If Hawpe is moved, Carlos Gonzalez will be in right. However, I'm getting a strong feeling the FO will side with loyalty, holding onto a GenR slugger when a cheaper and talented replacement gets pushed to the bench. Sound familiar?

Los Angeles

2009 in Review

Andre Ethier made a habit of clubbing clutch (5th in MLB in WPA) home runs and getting big hits that helped Los Angeles push forth to a division title. He was rewarded with a Silver Slugger, making Manny Ramirez the only Dodger OF without the honor in 2009. Notice Ethier did not also earn a Gold Glove with Matt Kemp, and that's certainly no mistake. Though Hawpe was the worst NL OF via UZR, Ethier was second.

Andre Ethier

#16 / Right Field / Los Angeles Dodgers

Height: 6-2

Weight: 210

Bats: L

Throws: L

Born: Apr 10, 1982

2010 in Preview

Ethier will be starter, with his salary due to be decided at an arbitration hearing, unless the team can reach an agreement beforehand. Last season, the Dodgers compromised before the hearing and offered a $3.1mil salary. It will be interesting to see how Ned Colletti plays it with the possibly cash-strapped franchise. The club has Ethier, Kemp, Hong-Chih Kuo, Chad Billingsley, Jonathan Broxton, Russell Martin and George Sherrill all eligible for arbitration this offseason. If they choose not to negotiate a compromise, Colletti could save some money if he wins a sufficient number of arbitration cases. Of course, he could get burned and see a player like Kemp or Ethier be awarded a much higher salary.

San Diego

2009 in Review

Brian Giles was supposed to be a reliable veteran for Bud Black in the lineup. However, Giles hit under the Mendoza line, played poor defense and showed little power in 249 PA before succumbing to a season-ending knee injury. Will Venable played superb defense while showing promise with the bat over nearly the same amount of playing time, while Kyle Blanks (a converted first baseman) posted a .400 wOBA in 83 PA.

Will Venable

#25 / Right Field / San Diego Padres

Height: 6-2

Weight: 210

Bats: L

Throws: L

Born: Oct 29, 1982

2010 in Preview

Giles was declined arbitration, so he is out of the picture. If the club indeed trades Kevin Kouzmanoff, Chase Headley can move to third, with Venable and Blanks taking the corners. If this doesn't happen, it will be either Venable or Blanks in right. My money is on Venable, who can handle the outfield without a problem defensively. However, Bill James projected Blanks for well over a 100 more PA. Both are under complete team control

San Francisco

2009 in Review

The Giants continue to have sneaky good showing due to defense. Randy Winn's best days offensively are clearly behind him, but he still posted the best UZR in the division, good enough to place him third in the player rankings. I would also like to point out his veterany thriftiness on the bases, successfully stealing in 14 of his 16 attempts.

Randy Winn

#2 / Left Field / San Francisco Giants

Height: 6-2

Weight: 195

Bats: B

Throws: R

Born: Jun 09, 1974

2010 in Preview

San Francisco declined arbitration on Winn, effectively opening up a free-for-all for AB's in right field. Nate Schierholtz has the strongest claim, as his superior defense and potentially solid bat make him an intriguing option. Bill James optimistically projects a .338 wOBA from him in 2010. Brian Sabean really ought to be looking elsewhere for an upgrade or at least insurance, because that .338 is probably a bit optimistic. John Bowker, Eugenio Velez and Andres Torres are other underwhelming internal options.

The 2009 'Pitties: MVP

Jim McLennan — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 02:59:20 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

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Haren, to no great surprise, cantered to victory in the Cy Young award, notching a thoroughly-convincing 86% of votes. Here's to the contest being a little closer in 2010, with Webb and Scherzer perhaps pushing Haren with their own pitching performances. We now move on to the final award: Most Valuable Player for the Diamondbacks in 2009.

You're kinda lucky this isn't just five players' name with a one-line summary such as 'Reynolds: hit the ball hard.' For yesterday, I came down with something rather nasty, stomach bug-wise - I'll spare you the details, but it was like a re-enactment of the Mr Creosote sketch from Monty Python's Meaning of Life. It was not a pleasant night. However, I am a bit better this morning [thanks go to Mrs. SnakePit and her NyQuil, hot sweet tea and damp towels for my forehead], so after the jump, we'll review the five top candidates for Diamondbacks MVP. I can not promise, however, that it will be entirely cut-and-paste free. Hey, I'm still not well...

I've also included the WAR [Wins Above Replacement] value from fangraphs.com, though obviously these do not take into account 'intangibles' such as leadership, etc. which may be considered important when deciding who is 'Most Valuable'. Will Haren's clear lead in this category be outweighed by his absence from the field of play four days out of five? It certainly doesn't seem to have hurt Brandon Webb, winner in both 2006 and 2007. He won't be a factor in this year's poll, and I'm thinking it could be quite close, as you could make a credible case for the majority of the nominees listed. After the jump, we'll list the names and put forward the cases.

Dan Haren: 6.1 WAR, 229.1 IP, 3.14 ERA

Haren posted his fifth straight 200-inning season in 2009, one of only four pitchers with such a streak (alongside Vasquez, Buerhle and Arroyo). Dan was also the best pitcher in the National League over the first-half of the season, with a 2.01 ERA, and a K:BB ratio better than 8:1. He had 18 quality starts in his first 19 outings, including seven straight where he went 7+ innings and allowed two or less runs - there hasn't been a longer streak in the NL since 2001. While Haren cooled off after the break, he still set career highs for IP, K and ERA+ and came within one measly hit of becoming the first NL starter in four years to have a WHIP below one.

Miguel Montero: 3.3 WAR, .294/.355/.478, 16 HR

One of the more pleasant surprises in 2009. Montero produced the best season ever offensively by an Arizona catcher (min. 150 PAs): his OPS of .832 broke Robby Hammock's record set in 2003, as Miggy became one of the top-hitting catchers in the National League. He tied the franchise high for both hits and home-runs at the position, and got more PAs in the majors than over the previous three seasons combined, taking over as our everyday starter behind the plate. Montero held his own against both left- and right-handers, and his defensive abilities grew noticeably better as the season went on. Montero's emergence ensures that catcher is not a position we'll need to worry about in 2010.

Mark Reynolds: 3.9 WAR, .260/.349/.543, 44 HR

Special K lived up to both halves of his nickname, becoming the first Diamondback since 2003 to drive in a hundred runs, and smacking 44 home-runs, including some of the most majestic ones seen in the majors all year, while smashing his own single-season record for strikeouts. Reynolds also developed into a clubhouse presence, not afraid to call out team-mates for their lack of effort, while giving the maximum himself. This showed up in his defense, including some spectactular plays made with wilful disregard for his own safety, but which improved considerably by most objective measures. This was the year when Reynolds truly came of age.

Max Scherzer: 3.2 WAR, 170.1 IP, 4.12 ERA

Questions about Scherzer's stamina coming into 2009 were largely answered: the 25-year old threw over three thousand pitches, ranking him between Cole Hamels and Zach Duke, and gradually stretched out, to the point where he averaged 6.60 IP/start in September, a career high. He also ranked 13th in the league for strikes, at 65%, ahead of Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum. Scherzer had a 2.16 ERA in June, which included his best outing, 7.2 shutout innings against the Giants. Not helped by his defense - the 16 unearned runs allowed was an NL high - Scherzer simply did it himself, fanning more than a batter per inning.

Justin Upton: 4.5 WAR, .300/.366/.532, 26 HR

Only four qualifying 21-year olds in the expansion era have had a better OPS than Upton produced for us in 2009: Pujols, A-Rod, Griffey and Cesar Cedeno. At his age, it would have been impressive enough for J-Up simply to justify his position, but to lead the team in BA, play in the All-Star Game and get an MVP vote, is an amazing achievement. While he still made his share of mistakes (the 420-foot single; the faked ball-toss), he also delivered more than his share of jaw-dropping moments in virtually all aspects of his game, with some dazzling defensive plays, showcasing the JUpzooka, as well as a prodigious bat.

Poll

Who was Arizona's MVP in 2009?

Dan Haren

68 votes

Miguel Montero

7 votes

Mark Reynolds

101 votes

Max Scherzer

7 votes

Justin Upton

47 votes

230 votes | Poll has closed

Fantasy Baseball: BP's Eric Seidman's Top 10 Fantasy Players

raygu — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 20:00:13 -0000

by Nick Wass - AP

3 months ago: Washington Nationals' Ryan Zimmerman, right, rounds the bases as he is greeted by third base coach Pat Listach (4) after Zimmerman hit a three-run home run during the sixth inning of a baseball game against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Wednesday, Sept. 23, 2009, in Washington. The Nationals won 5-4. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)

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In his chat yesterday over at Baseball Prospectus, Eric Seidman was asked the following:

Tex Premium Lager (Jersey): Even More Blatant Fantasy Keeper Question (tm): In no order, who are the 10 most valuable position players for the next few years? Most seem obvious (Pujols, Hanley, Utley, etc.) but I'd like your take on the matter. Maybe someone (you?) can take over Nate Silver's top 50 list, which was one of my favorite articles each year.
Eric Seidman: I'll list the guys that instantly came to mind as that likely says a lot about their attributes: Pujols, Mauer, Hanley, Utley, Tulowitzki, J Upton, Longoria, Zimmerman, Wright, Braun. Those aren't in order and there are definitely others to think about.

So, he answered this question off the top of his head, but he included David Wright in his top 10 fantasy players for "the next few years". Am I the only one who thinks Wright shouldn't be in the top 10? He leaves himself an out with the last sentence in his response, so I will give him the benefit of the doubt.

What surprised me was including Troy Tulowitzki and Ryan Zimmerman in his top 10. Granted both players are very good all around players-offensively and defensively-but are they top 10? I like Zimmerman alot as well, and could consider him should he duplicate his 2009 season in 2010. As for Tulo, I don't see him going 30-20 again in 2010.

Which player would you take out of his top 10?

Poll

Which player should NOT be in the top 10 fantasy player list for the next few years?

Ryan Zimmerman

33 votes

David Wright

29 votes

Troy Tulowitzki

40 votes

102 votes | Poll has closed

Fantasy Baseball: Early Mock Draft-Round 2, Pick 2

raygu — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 20:00:20 -0000

by Danny Moloshok - AP

3 months ago: Arizona Diamondbacks' Justin Upton, right, comes into the dugout after scoring after Augie Ojeda was walked by Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher James McDonald with the bases loaded during the 10th inning of a baseball game, Monday, Aug. 31, 2009, in Los Angeles. The Diamondbacks won 5-3. (AP Photo/Danny Moloshok)

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This was not an easy pick for me, as I considered Carl Crawford, Evan Longoria, Mark Teixeira and Mark Reynolds, but I couldn't get away from the upside of J-Up-Justin Upton.

Upton went 26-86-20-.300-..366-.532-.899 in 2009 while watching his K% drop from 34% in 2008 to 26% in 2009. His HR/FB% increased from 15.3% in 2008 to 18.8% in 2009 which coincided with a drop in his FB% from 41.9% in 2008 to 35.7% in 2009. Upton also increased his ISO, or isolated power, from .213 in 2008 to .232 in 2009. Should he be able to maintain his HR/FB% while increasing his FB%, he could easily hit 30 HRs in 2010. I think he can do better than that actually.

Upton not only provided fantasy owners with solid power, but he also contributed 20 SBs in 2009 after stealing only 1 bag in 2008. I think the speed is here to stay as the Diamondbacks struggled to score runs in 2009, and I think that trend continues in 2010. I expect Upton to steal between 20-25 bags in 2010.

Upton is capable of a 30-100-20-.300 season in 2010, and should be drafted accordingly.

Mark Reynolds and Justin Upton get some MVP love

Jim McLennan — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 04:28:50 -0000

While the anointment of Albert Pujols as the 2009 National League Most Valuable Player was the most foregone conclusion since, oh, probably Joe Mauer getting the American League trophy, there was some love shown for the Diamondbacks at the bottom of the ballot. Mark Reynolds finished equal 20th, getting one 8th, 9th and 10th place vote, to tie him with Yuniel Escobar and his fifth-place ballot [I'd like to thank Mrs. Escobar for taking part in this year's balloting]. And Justin Upton finished in 25th with a ninth-place vote.

A complete list of DIamondbacks to receive MVP votes can be found after the jump.

Player	Year	Points/Pos
Matt Williams	1999	269, 3rd
Jay Bell		31, 13th
Randy Johnson		21, 15th
Luis Gonzalez		12, 18th
Randy Johnson	2000	5, 17th
Luis Gonzalez	2001	261, 3rd
Curt Schilling		24, 10th
Randy Johnson		23, 11th
Randy Johnson	2002	127, 7th
Curt Schilling		53, 10th
Junior Spivey		8, 14th
Luis Gonzalez	2003	4, 25th
Randy Johnson	2004	7, 19th
Eric Byrnes	2007	43, 11th
Jose Valverde		19, 14th
Brandon Webb		15, 17th
Brandon Webb	2008	14, 17th
Stephen Drew		2, 26th
Mark Reynolds	2009	6, 20th
Justin Upton		2, 25th

The 2009 Diamondbacks Season, Part VII: Base-running

Jim McLennan — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 02:00:14 -0000

by Rick Scuteri - AP

Upton is caught stealing third base Pirates third baseman Andy LaRoche during a game on July 23.

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After a couple of weeks off, we get to the final part of the 2009 season review, while we look at the Diamondbacks' performance on the base-paths. This doesn't just cover the straight stolen-base, though this is the most immediately obvious component of base-running. There's also factors like going from first to third on a single: not quite as flashy as the swiped bag, but still an extra 90 feet you otherwise wouldn't have.

After the jump, we'll break down a few numbers, and see where the Arizona Diamondbacks stacked up against the rest of their National League rivals. For each category, we'll also take a look at the individual numbers, and see who the heroes and villains were for the team. But let's start, as you might expect, with a nice table of data:

Tm	SB	CS	SB%	PO	OOB	BT	XBT%
ARI	102	40	72%	22	60	131	42%
ATL	58	26	69%	15	50	121	38%
CHC	56	34	62%	11	46	120	36%
CIN	96	40	71%	18	63	125	41%
COL	106	55	66%	26	75	186	47%
FLA	75	35	68%	17	62	172	38%
HOU	113	44	72%	9	47	118	38%
LAD	116	48	71%	26	56	154	44%
MIL	68	37	65%	14	47	154	34%
NYM	122	44	73%	16	69	169	40%
PHI	119	28	81%	21	44	122	39%
PIT	90	32	74%	18	64	136	38%
SDP	82	29	74%	20	52	119	38%
SFG	78	28	74%	11	47	159	38%
STL	75	31	71%	19	54	138	44%
WSN	73	40	65%	17	45	131	39%
LgAvg	89	37	71%	18	55	141	39%

Stolen bases
Arizona stole a total of 102 bases, and were caught stealing forty times - the former number is good enough for sixth in the league, and their success rate of 72% was fractionally better than NL average (71%). However, this conceals a significant difference with regard to stealing second- and third-base. For the former, we had a solid 74% success-rate (NL avg: 71%), but when trying to take third, we were only 18-for-28, a 64% rate. League average, perhaps surprisingly, increased to 73% - I say surprisingly, because it's generally thought of as a harder job, because the catcher has less distance to cover with his throw to third.

Chris Young was, far and away, the best on the team at taking third, being successful on six out of seven attempts. He was actually less successful when taking second, where he was safe on only five of eight attempts. Gerardo Parra showed reversed numbers too, with more good steals of third (3-of-4) than second (2-of-8) by him. Conversely, from the 2009 numbers, Mark Reynolds should be nailed to second-base: while he was great at reaching it from first (22-5, for a 81% rate), he failed on four out of six attempt to get from there to third. Justin Upton had the best numbers on the team going to second, of anyone with more than two attempts, at 84%.

And for the record, the Diamondbacks were credited with one attempted steal of home. By Kevin Mulvey. Though as you can probably guess, describing it as a "steal" is a bit generous: our pitcher was caught day-dreaming at third-base against the Giants on September 30th, got himself picked off and involved in a brief rundown before retreating, sheepishly, to the dugout.

Pickoffs
Definitely an area in which the team needs to improve, though we're hardly alone in the division - four of the top five teams for having pickoffs inflicted on them, play in the NL West. The Diamondbacks' total of 22 trailed only the Dodgers and Rockies (tied with 26), and straight pickoffs - rather than those where the runner was caught trying to steal - were responsible for the bulk of those in Arizona, fourteen. There aren't any numbers available to show how these break down by base: while I've a feeling we were particular bad at getting ourselves picked off second, this is only my anecdotal hunch.

No doubt who should be looking to work on this in the off-season. Mark Reynolds led the team with seven pickoffs, more than twice as much as anyone else, and good enough for third in the entire National League (trailing Nyjer Morgan and an ex-Diamondbacks, Emilio Bonifacio, who had nine and eight respectively). Five of Reynolds' erasures were straight pickoffs, and two were in the process of stealing a base. Young and Upton were next, albeit all the way back on three, and that's probably no surprise: age and experience are likely significant factors here.

Taking the extra base
We should look at this in conjuction with the total number of outs made on the basepaths: this might be while trying to advance on a sacrifice fly, a passed ball/wild-pitch or doubled-off on a line-drive [basically, any out not covered in the two sections above]. In total, the team took 131 bases and made 60 outs, a ratio of 2.18, which is below the league average, 2.56. However, the team were more aggressive than most teams, taking an extra base e.g. going from first-to-third on a single, 42% of the time, good for fourth in the National League.

I was astonished to find that the man who led the team in stolen bases, Mark Reynolds, was actually among the most conservative on the team, with an extra base percentage of only 30%. Some of this may be small sample-size - we are discussing only 43 opportunities over the entire season - but I'd certainly not have expected him to be below Miguel Montero (a healthy 44%). Best on the team was Ryan Roberts, who posted a 56% rate in 34 chances. Upton and Young are also looking good, at 50% and 49%. In limited playing-time, Conor Jackson was 5-of-7: be interesting to see how the Dominican Winter League SB leader performs on the base-paths in 2010.

We can break the overal "extra base" number down, into the three situations where taking an extra base is possible: on first when a single is hit (we'll call this 1S); on first when a double is hit (1D); and on second when a single is hit (2S). In all other situations, the batter should score in almost every circumstance. Now, this doesn't take into account location of the hit - some singles will be a great deal easier to score from second on than others [such as when Upton hits a single 420 feet off the wall...], but over the course of a season, things should tend to even out.

Here are the percentages for Arizona compared to NL average. 1S: 29%/27%. 1D: 46%/44%. 2S: 64%/58%. This does tend to suggest that we were more aggressive than most in each situation, but particularly when going from second to home on a single. Given the youth of our roster, this would seem to make logical sense. However, I am not going to split these down into individual performances, because we are really getting down to the level where random chance makes it hard to draw any conclusions: no-one had more than 26 chances in any of the categories.

EqBRR
This stands for Equivalent Base Running Runs and is a Baseball Prospectus stat that "measures the number of runs contributed by a player's advancement on the bases, above what would be expected based on the number and quality of the baserunning opportunities with which the player is presented, park-adjusted and based on a multi-year run expectancy table." It's the sum of various components: Ground Advancement Runs (EqGAR), Stolen Base Runs (EqSBR), Air Advancement Runs (EqAAR), Hit Advancement Runs (EqHAR) and Other Advancement Runs (EqOAR), each reflecting a different aspect of the base-running game.

All told, the team ranked 21st in the majors, with an EqBRR of -6.8 runs. Most of this came from EqSBR, which was responsible for -6.36 of those runs. Breaking the numbers down to individuals, the top three were Upton (+3.2), Roberts (+1.7) and Jackson (+1.7) - again, be interesting to see how the last-named holds up, if he can come back fully healthy in 2010. Down at the other end of the spectrum, the worst trio were Chris Young (-2.1), Chris Snyder (-2.3) and Mark Reynolds, who was rated at -4.5, no doubt in part because of all the pickoffs.

Overall
From a statistical point of view, base-running is a relatively minor component of the game, compared to pitching or hitting. But it's also one over which a team has much more control - while pure speed is a talent, the ability to use it is a skill which can be taught. However, above and beyond the direct impact of good (or bad) base-running, I tend to think it can also have a contribution to "intangibles." Successful fundamental baseball provides a psychological boost, both to the player responsible and their team-mates, just as it does to us as fans watching; conversely, few things can suck the wind out of your sails worse than a blunder between the bags.

As such, while some aspects of the team's work in 2009 were credible, there is certainly room for improvement, especially in the pick-off department. Aggressive (but not to the point of psychotic) base-running should continue, but I'd like to see even more use being made of those fresh legs. Young, Reynolds and Upton are all capable of putting up 25 steals next season, and Jackson may not be too far behind, if his DWL performance is anything to go by. Add in a few more bunt hits, for we have a number of speed/power guys who should be taking advantage of infields that have to play back against them, and it's an area that I hope to see become a strength of the team in 2010.

The Astros most impressive performances in 2009: The relievers

DyingQuail — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 17:39:23 -0000

More photos » by Alan Diaz - AP

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Why are we fretting so much about Jose Valverde and LaTroy Hawkins? I mean aside from the fact that they're talented pitchers with above average ability. Closers, and the set-up men whose shoulders they stand on, enter games in situations where we as fans have our stomach in knots. In someone like Valverde's case, he toes the rubber and pumps 97 MPH fastballs while mixing in, most of the time, a devastating split-finger pitch.

With starters, each at bat doesn't have the feeling of importance that a closer's does. A starter always has another inning or two to work with, and there are still plenty outs for the offense to work with, too. But relievers are leveraged.

Why the waxing sentimental? Because that's how I arrived at today's post. Instead of combining starters and relievers into one mess of who had the best WPA added in a single game, I decided to isolate which relievers had the best WPA added in a single PA.

No. 1 - LaTroy Hawkins on June 13th

This was an awkward day of Hawkins. Valverde was working himself back into the job that Hawkins had dutifully filled for him in his extended DL stay. So, I guess it's understandable that Hawkins starts on of his final 9th inning save opportunities a little shaky.

via www.fangraphs.com

With the Astros leading 6-4, Hakwins quickly found himself with runners on first and second and none out. Hawkins rebounded with a GIDP on Justin Upton that netted him an astounding .293 WPA on a single PA due to a leverage index of 5.91 (a run at that point would have been like Jon Garland giving up 5.91 runs to start the top of the first, or half a Jason Jennings here or here).

No. 2 - Jelf Fulchino on June 7th

Cecil Cooper trots out Tim Brydak to start the bottom of the seventh. Two batters latter, Cecil Cooper brings in Jeff Fulchino to clean up a bases loaded, no outs jam. Yes, Fulchino gives up two runs, but the situation had an RE of 2.30, so technically Fulchino saves our butts, because the third run puts the Pirates in the drivers seat.

via www.fangraphs.com

Finally, though, Fulchino is on the receiving end of an Adam LaRoche double play and the inning is over. For his trouble, Fulchino is credited with .245 WPA, and has the satisfaction of knowing that he had the second most leveraged out of the year.

No. 3 Jose Valverde on September 29th

Some of us may not remember this one because, well, the Astros were depressing to watch at this point. However, there was still some excitement to experience.

via www.fangraphs.com

The story is pretty similar to the above. Valverde got himself in trouble to start the inning, but rallied to get out.Yet again, another double play ball, netting him .236 WPA on the GIDP of Laynce Nix. This begs the question, do the pitchers get the credit or does the defense? Or does it matter because all we're looking for are spectacular moments in relief pitching?

Like yesterday, what are the moments I missed because I did this by the numbers? Only, no poll because having to actually read the article to vote didn't mesh well with getting a lot of responses.

SBN Awards: NL MVP (hint, it starts with a P)

DyingQuail — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 18:00:47 -0000

by Matt Rourke - AP

Is this Pujols? No. Is it an incredible dick-ish picture of Jayson Werth that I've been waiting ages to have a legitimate use for? Yes.

View full size photo »

Unanimity for presidents has been reserved solely for Washington. For Albert Pujols in 2009, all the denizens of SBN nation who cast a ballot lauded him with the honor being the unanimous NL MVP. Can anyone even make an argument against this?

For myself, I literally just voted by WAR, but I did slip Michael Bourn in at 8th because, I could and I thought he deserved it. I obviously wasn't the only one pulling some homerism, so I'm not too concerned.

Rk	Player	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th	10th	Pts
1	Albert Pujols	St. Louis Cardinals	31	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	434
2	Hanley Ramirez	Florida Marlins	-	6	8	11	2	1	2	-	-	-	220
3	Chase Utley	Philadelphia Phillies	-	7	11	2	3	1	-	1	-	1	192
4	Prince Fielder	Milwaukee Brewers	-	5	4	4	7	7	1	-	-	-	186
5	Troy Tulowitzki	Colorado Rockies	-	4	1	5	2	3	3	4	1	2	134
6	Tim Lincecum	San Francisco Giants	-	4	1	-	1	2	2	3	1	-	79
7	Ryan Howard	Philadelphia Phillies	-	4	-	1	4	1	-	-	3	1	79
8	Ryan Zimmerman	Washington Nationals	-	-	1	3	3	3	3	1	-	2	79
9	Adrian Gonzalez	San Diego Padres	-	-	1	-	3	3	2	4	3	4	71
10	Pablo Sandoval	San Francisco Giants	-	-	-	1	2	2	2	3	4	3	57
11	Matt Kemp	Los Angeles Dodgers	-	-	1	1	1	1	5	3	-	1	56
12	Ryan Braun	Milwaukee Brewers	-	-	2	-	-	2	2	1	1	-	39
13	Chris Carpenter	St. Louis Cardinals	-	-	-	-	2	1	1	-	1	2	25
14	Derrek Lee	Chicago Cubs	-	-	-	-	-	2	1	1	3	2	25
15	Andre Ethier	Los Angeles Dodgers	-	-	-	-	1	2	2	-	-	-	24
16	Adam Wainwright	St. Louis Cardinals	-	-	-	1	-	-	1	1	4	1	23
17	Javier Vazquez	Atlanta Braves	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	1	2	1	16
18	Matt Holliday	St. Louis Cardinals	-	-	1	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	12
19	Joey Votto	Cincinnati Reds	-	1	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	11
20	Mark Reynolds	Arizona Diamondbacks	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	1	2	10
21	Todd Helton	Colorado Rockies	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	-	-	-	7
22	Jayson Werth	Philadelphia Phillies	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	1	6
23	Adam Dunn	Washington Nationals	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	3	5
24	Juan Pierre	Los Angeles Dodgers	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	4
25	Justin Upton	Arizona Diamondbacks	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	1	4
26	Raul Ibanez	Philadelphia Phillies	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	1	4
27	Ubaldo Jimenez	Colorado Rockies	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	1	4
28	Brian McCann	Atlanta Braves	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	-	4
29	Dan Haren	Arizona Diamondbacks	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	-	4
30	Michael Bourn	Houston Astros	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	3
31	Yadier Molina	St. Louis Cardinals	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	3
32	Nyjer Morgan	Washington Nationals	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1
33	Yunel Escobar	Atlanta Braves	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1

My question is: Juan Pierre, really?

Prince Fielder finishes fourth in SBN NL MVP Voting

KLSnow — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 17:00:38 -0000

The SB Nation Most Valuable Player voting was unveiled today. Here are the NL results:

Rk	Player	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th	10th	Pts
1	Albert Pujols	St. Louis Cardinals	31	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	434
2	Hanley Ramirez	Florida Marlins	-	6	8	11	2	1	2	-	-	-	220
3	Chase Utley	Philadelphia Phillies	-	7	11	2	3	1	-	1	-	1	192
4	Prince Fielder	Milwaukee Brewers	-	5	4	4	7	7	1	-	-	-	186
5	Troy Tulowitzki	Colorado Rockies	-	4	1	5	2	3	3	4	1	2	134
6	Tim Lincecum	San Francisco Giants	-	4	1	-	1	2	2	3	1	-	79
7	Ryan Howard	Philadelphia Phillies	-	4	-	1	4	1	-	-	3	1	79
8	Ryan Zimmerman	Washington Nationals	-	-	1	3	3	3	3	1	-	2	79
9	Adrian Gonzalez	San Diego Padres	-	-	1	-	3	3	2	4	3	4	71
10	Pablo Sandoval	San Francisco Giants	-	-	-	1	2	2	2	3	4	3	57
11	Matt Kemp	Los Angeles Dodgers	-	-	1	1	1	1	5	3	-	1	56
12	Ryan Braun	Milwaukee Brewers	-	-	2	-	-	2	2	1	1	-	39
13	Chris Carpenter	St. Louis Cardinals	-	-	-	-	2	1	1	-	1	2	25
14	Derrek Lee	Chicago Cubs	-	-	-	-	-	2	1	1	3	2	25
15	Andre Ethier	Los Angeles Dodgers	-	-	-	-	1	2	2	-	-	-	24
16	Adam Wainwright	St. Louis Cardinals	-	-	-	1	-	-	1	1	4	1	23
17	Javier Vazquez	Atlanta Braves	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	1	2	1	16
18	Matt Holliday	St. Louis Cardinals	-	-	1	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	12
19	Joey Votto	Cincinnati Reds	-	1	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	11
20	Mark Reynolds	Arizona Diamondbacks	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	1	2	10
21	Todd Helton	Colorado Rockies	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	-	-	-	7
22	Jayson Werth	Philadelphia Phillies	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	1	6
23	Adam Dunn	Washington Nationals	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	3	5
24	Juan Pierre	Los Angeles Dodgers	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	4
25	Justin Upton	Arizona Diamondbacks	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	1	4
26	Raul Ibanez	Philadelphia Phillies	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	1	4
27	Ubaldo Jimenez	Colorado Rockies	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	1	4
28	Brian McCann	Atlanta Braves	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	-	4
29	Dan Haren	Arizona Diamondbacks	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	-	4
30	Michael Bourn	Houston Astros	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	3
31	Yadier Molina	St. Louis Cardinals	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	3
32	Nyjer Morgan	Washington Nationals	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1
33	Yunel Escobar	Atlanta Braves	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1

Here was my ballot:
1. Albert Pujols
2. Prince Fielder
3. Tim Lincecum
4. Chase Utley
5. Hanley Ramirez
6. Ryan Zimmerman
7. Troy Tulowitzki
8. Matt Kemp
9. Javier Vazquez
10. Adrian Gonzalez

Follow the jump for the AL results.

Rk	Player	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th	10th	Pts
1	Joe Mauer	Minnesota Twins	24	3	1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	371
2	Ben Zobrist	Tampa Bay Rays	-	10	6	2	2	1	-	1	-	-	172
3	Mark Teixeira	New York Yankees	2	3	2	4	3	2	7	1	-	-	158
4	Derek Jeter	New York Yankees	1	5	3	4	4	2	1	1	2	1	157
5	Evan Longoria	Tampa Bay Rays	-	2	4	1	2	3	2	3	2	1	106
6	Zack Greinke	Kansas City Royals	2	3	2	1	1	-	2	-	-	-	92
7	Miguel Cabrera	Detroit Tigers	-	-	3	1	2	4	-	2	-	5	74
8	Kevin Youkilis	Boston Red Sox	-	2	-	-	1	3	1	8	1	-	69
9	Chone Figgins	Los Angeles Angels	-	-	-	3	4	1	-	1	3	1	60
10	Jason Bay	Boston Red Sox	-	1	-	4	2	-	-	1	-	2	54
11	Kendry Morales	Los Angeles Angels	-	-	4	-	-	1	-	-	1	-	39
12	Ichiro Suzuki	Seattle Mariners	-	-	1	-	2	-	1	2	2	3	37
13	Franklin Gutierrez	Seattle Mariners	-	-	-	1	1	1	3	-	1	2	34
14	Justin Verlander	Detroit Tigers	-	-	-	2	1	1	1	-	1	1	32
15	Felix Hernandez	Seattle Mariners	-	-	-	2	-	-	1	3	2	-	31
16	Jason Bartlett	Tampa Bay Rays	-	-	1	1	1	-	-	-	-	1	22
17	Alex Rodriguez	New York Yankees	-	-	1	-	1	-	1	-	-	-	18
18	Roy Halladay	Toronto Blue Jays	-	-	-	1	-	1	1	-	-	-	16
19	Adam Lind	Toronto Blue Jays	-	-	-	-	-	2	-	-	1	4	16
20	Dustin Pedroia	Boston Red Sox	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	4	1	13
21	Bobby Abreu	Los Angeles Angels	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	1	1	-	12
22	Aaron Hill	Toronto Blue Jays	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	1	-	-	12
23	Mariano Rivera	New York Yankees	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	1	1	9
24	Torii Hunter	Los Angeles Angels	-	-	1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	8
25	Brian Roberts	Baltimore Orioles	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	7
26	CC Sabathia	New York Yankees	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	1	-	6
27	Carl Crawford	Tampa Bay Rays	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	1	6
28	J.D. Drew	Boston Red Sox	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	-	5
29	Jon Lester	Boston Red Sox	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	-	5
30	Jonathan Papelbon	Boston Red Sox	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	-	5
31	Robinson Cano	New York Yankees	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	-	5
32	Victor Martinez	Boston Red Sox	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	-	5
33	Michael Cuddyer	Minnesota Twins	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	4
34	Shin-Soo Choo	Cleveland Indians	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	4
35	Michael Young	Texas Rangers	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	3
36	Jacoby Ellsbury	Boston Red Sox	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	2
37	Jason Kubel	Minnesota Twins	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	2
38	Alex Gonzalez	Boston Red Sox	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1
39	Nick Markakis	Baltimore Orioles	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1