SB Nation - Mark Prior

Starting Pitchers: Damaged Goods Available

Jesse — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 01:33:46 -0000

More photos » by Tony Gutierrez - AP

The Twins now have approximately $62 million committed to eight players who are under contract for 2010, and with J.J. Hardy's estimated arbitration salary likely somewhere around $6 million Minnesota will have approximately $17 million to shell out to their arb-eligible players. Even with a payroll which would open the year at over $80 million for the first time in frachise history the organization is still in a position to add some payroll. How much? Probably not too much. But with third base, second base and two rotation spots up for grabs there's no doubt the front office will continue on their quest to improve the team.

Minnesota has picked up a bit of a stigma as an organization that likes to rely on bargain-bin veterans to flesh out their roster, and there hasn't been a shortage of that philosophy applied to the starting rotation over the last few years. Do your ears still flush red when you think of Ramon Ortiz and Sidney Ponson? Or maybe Livan Hernandez still has you a bit baffled? Those moves, at the time, were railroaded for the quality of the player rather than the organization's decision to bring in veteran help, although there was also a strong belief that a rotation centered around Johan Santana, Francisco Liriano and Scott Baker would be just fine.

The front office agreed with us last winter, and they stayed fully in-house when constructing their rotation.

Things can change a lot in the span of a year. An area of strength going coming out of 2008 is a bit of a weakness, or at the very least not nearly as deep as we thought it would be, coming out of 2009. For a team that will always look to get the most value for their dollar, if they do choose to supplement the rotation in the free agent market, their highest reward scenarios might center around these guys. Read all about them after the break.

Rich Harden

#40 / Pitcher / Chicago Cubs

Height: 6-1

Weight: 195

Bats: L

Throws: R

Born: Nov 30, 1981

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Rich Harden	9-9	27	26	0	0	0	0	141.0	122	74	64	23	67	171	4.09	1.34

26 starts in 2009 and 25 starts in 2008--not bad. Then there were the 13 starts in '06 and '07 combined, with 19 starts made in '05. In fact, in Harden's six-plus star-crossed seasons in the majors he has had exactly one full season: 2004.

A couple of back injuries, a strained left oblique and a rap sheet full of right-arm issues, Harden's inability to keep himself on the mound isn't exactly a secret. Which is why he's even on this list. Anyone who can strike out more than a man per inning while allowing less than a hit per inning, with that kind of fastball and that kind of stuff, is a guy who's makeup has "Ace" dripping out of every pore.

This past season Harden missed 19 games in May and June due to issues with his back, before coming back and eventually being shut down at the end of September because of his pitching arm. Again.

Obviously he's a risk, but that's why I wanted to talk about these guys. The oblique strains don't bother me--it's the problems (plural) that Harden has had with his rotator cuff and his UCL. His mechanics aren't exactly smooth and without constant training to strengthen and stabalize his cuff I'm worried he could have to resort to Tommy John surgery at any time. But I'm not a doctor.

Harden is likely to garner a lot of guarded interest this off-season, and in spite of his injuries and high pitch count innings could still receive multi-year offers that would be worth double-digit millions easy. Naturally I'm not opposed to the Twins chasing him and signing him to a deal as long as it's done right. While the Twins may not be able to guarantee more money than most of the other clubs out there, offering him a low base with a number of achieveable incentives for games started and innings pitched could make a deal at least tempting.

My offer: Two years with team option for year a third. 2010: $4 million base ($500K for 12, 17, 22, 27 and 32 starts; $500 K for 100, 125, 150, 175, 200 innings pitched; $9 million possible; $1 million buyout option if less than 100 innings pitched). 2011: $6 million base, same incentives. 2012: $10 million base, same incentives, $1 million buyout.

Ben Sheets

#15 / Pitcher / Milwaukee Brewers

Height: 6-1

Weight: 225

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Jul 18, 1978

Sheets didn't pitch at all in 2009, and at two years older than Harden would be 32 in 2010. His rap sheet of injuries is even more varied than the Cubs ace, with long stretches of time missed for back injuries, finger injuries and, of course, right arm injuries. This last time around he's had flexor tendon surgery and, if you listen to his agent, would be ready for spring training.

He doesn't strike out quite as many guys as Harden but he still allows less than a hit per inning, has better control and is far more efficient with his pitches. Prior to this last surgery anyway. Like Harden his fastball is mid to upper-90's, and his breaking balls can break your knees. Prior to this last surgery anyway.

Sheets made 31 starts and pitched 198 innings in 2008 before missing all of '09, but from '05 to '07 he wasn't pitching full years either. From the ages of 23 to 25 though, which may be where some of these problems began for a guy who was at the time a younger pitcher, Sheets made 102 starts and threw more than 670 innings. You could argue he was over-worked, although by the time a guy hits his mid-20's he should be able to handle a full load. I tend to lean away from the over-worked arguement.

Where I see Harden landing with a more high-profile team who is willing to take a chance on him and spend a little more ching, Sheets is the option who already looks like he'll appeal to everybody. Second-tier teams (like the Twins) who still have a little wiggle room might run straight for the former Brewer to avoid getting drawn into a process with Harden.

My offer: One year with a team option for a second. 2010: $3 million base ($500 K for 11, 22 and 33 starts; $500 K for 100, 125, 150, 175 and 200 innings; $7 million possible). 2011: $5 million base, same incentives, $500K buyout.

Erik Bedard

#45 / Pitcher / Seattle Mariners

Height: 6-1

Weight: 200

Bats: L

Throws: L

Born: Mar 06, 1979

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Erik Bedard	5-3	15	15	0	0	0	0	83.0	65	29	26	8	34	90	2.82	1.19

Bedard had arthroscopic surgery on his left shoulder back in August, repairing what had been a spot of general disrepair. A torn labrum was the main issue, but the area apparently needed a good clearing. Apparently he'll be ready for the beginning of the season, but it's the second time in as many years where he made just 15 starts.

His stuff, just like the stuff of Harden and Sheets, qualifies him as an ace. He can be a dominant strikeout pitcher at times, although a little streaky even when healthy and not as efficient with his pitches as Sheets. What had been very low fly-ball numbers increased slightly in Seattle, but his plus fastball and plus breaking ball continued to be his best pitches and were seemingly unaffected.

The biggest issues with the former Mariner and Oriole enigma are his consistency and, just like the other two guys on this list, his inability to stay healthy for a whole season. His control tends to stray at times as well.

My offer: Identical to Sheets' offer.

Conclusions

Clearly there are more guys on the market than these three who could qualify as damaged goods. Mark Prior is attempting a comeback, Bartolo Colon is still floating (or sinking) around out there somewhere and even a guy like Noah Lowry has some appeal. But these three guys are the creme of the crop, because they all have the ability to be that elusive Ace pitcher.

Is there a safer option between the three? Which guy would you prefer, if any?

Poll

Which of these three pitchers do you prefer?

Rich Harden

364 votes

Ben Sheets

218 votes

Erik Bedard

161 votes

None of the above

89 votes

832 votes | Poll has closed

2009-10 Do-It-Yourself Offseason Trade/Free Agent Post

Al — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 14:01:23 -0000

More photos » by Mark Avery - AP

Some guy named Brian Roberts. Ever heard of him? Me, either.

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This morning, wrote that the Cubs are interested in acquiring . Cubs GM Jim Hendry . Meanwhile, Hendry said that Milton Bradley would be traded to the . Hendry also said that Rich Harden , and that Carlos Zambrano . Former Cub Mark DeRosa while Bradley was offered to the . The Cubs tried to get the to take Aaron Miles' contract, but they refused because . In the upcoming Rule 5 draft, the Cubs are going to select . The Cubs' plans for Sam Fuld in 2010 include Brian Roberts was located and had this comment on his possible trade to the Cubs: Finally, manager Lou Piniella's comments about the rumors included:

Minnesota Twins 2010 Roster & Payroll (Part II)

Jesse — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 22:48:55 -0000

Thanks for some fantastic coversation on Tuesday! Milt on Tilt, Eric In Madison, Seth Speaks, clutterheart, Fetch9, ajmargarine and everyone else who contributed made for a great discussion, helped clarify some things while running some good back-and-forth over dollars and stats.

We'll start where we left off, which was discussing how internal options would help flesh out the depth chart. All players who aren't either under contract or arbitration-eligible (serfs) will be in italics. Serfs, simply because of how much they're being paid, their options and their experience, are the easiest players to theoretically replace with free agents. Some players will be listed on the depth chart at more than one position, but we should see pretty quickly which positions have talent and depth, and which positions have flexibility but not necessarily reliability.

Catcher: Joe Mauer, Jose Morales
First Base: Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer
Second Base: Nick Punto, Brendan Harris, Alexi Casilla, Matt Tolbert, Steven Tolleson
Third Base: Brian Buscher, Brendan Harris, Matt Tolbert, Nick Punto, Daniel Valencia, Luke Hughes
Shortstop: Nick Punto, Brendan Harris, Matt Tolbert, Trevor Plouffe
Left Field: Denard Span, Delmon Young, Jason Kubel
Center Field: Carlos Gomez, Denard Span
Right Field: Michael Cuddyer, Denard Span, Jason Kubel
Designated Hitter: Jason Kubel

Starting Pitcher: Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, Brian Duensing, Francisco Liriano, Glen Perkins, Anthony Swarzak, Boof Bonser
Relief Pitcher: Joe Nathan, Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares, Jon Rauch, Jesse Crain, Pat Neshek, Brian Duensing, Glen Perkins, Boof Bonser, Francisco Liriano

You can make an argument for another player or two being on this list somewhere, but realistically if the Twins went into next season without picking up a single free agent, this would be the essential core of players. From this group you'd need to choose 25 players.

Before we get our estimated payroll figure for those 25, we have to update our estimates for what our nine arbitration-eligible players could be worth next year. 117 comments from Tuesday's post, and using a healthy cross-section of responses as guidelines we'll alter our estimates to the following.

Player	Original Estimate	Updated Estimate
Boof Bonser	$500,000	$900,000
Carlos Gomez	$600,000	$1,000,000
Brendan Harris	$600,000	$1,100,000
Francisco Liriano	$550,000	$1,500,000
Pat Neshek	$500,000	$700,000
Glen Perkins	$550,000	$900,000
Delmon Young	$1,750,000	$1,750,000
Jesse Crain	$2,300,000	$2,300,000
Matt Guerrier	$2,100,000	$2,600,000
Totals	$9,450,000	$12,750,000

We've added $3.3 million dollars in arbitration raises. Add this new total to the committed $62,267,000 and your contractual and arbitration players are making an estimated $75,017,000. Add another eight players at the major league minimum plus a little change, and right now I have to believe that without adding a single free agent the Twins will go to Opening Day with a minimum of $78.5 million dollars. We'll call it an even $80, just in case I've been too conservative in any estimates.

That would constitute a $15 million dollar bump from Opening Day 2009, and it's far and away a franchise record. But what will the front office's limit be for spending this off-season? Will they be allowed to add another $5 million? $10 million? Some on this site have speculated the organization could go so far as to raise payroll to $100,000, even before the team has played a game in its new stadium. I tend to this that's pretty high. I also think this team will be hesitant to reach to $90 million, if only because it's so far removed from any ceiling this club has ever seen.

For now, today, until we hear something different we'll just throw out the number of $87,000,000. Some will think that's too high and a lot will think it's too low, but it's a fair number.

One look at the above depth chart and it's pretty easy to point a finger, run it across a few names and say Okay, So This Is Where We Should Start. Those places, in no particular order, should be starting pitching, shortstop, third base and second base. Check here for a current list of potential free agents, but here's a list of players who could potentially cost $7 million or less per season.

Starting Pitchers: Erik Bedard, Daniel Cabrera, Doug Davis, Josh Fogg, Jason Marquis, Brett Myers, Vincente Padilla, Carl Pavano, Brad Penny, Mark Prior, Jarrod Washburn, Randy Wolf

I purposely left a few names off this list, but this is still fairly exhaustive. Which one of these guys, if any, would constitute enough value for the Twins to shell out millions of dollars with the hope that their additional wins would be worth the value over in-house, cheaper, more familiar options? If you only have $7 million to spend, are you willing to blow it all on one veteran starter? Or maybe the gambling type, and would bring in Prior on a one-year, incentive laden deal? Hell, he'll only be 28.

Third Base: Adrian Beltre, Joe Crede, Bobby Crosby, Mark DeRosa, Nomar Garciaparra, Troy Glaus, Miguel Tejada, Juan Uribe

See anyone you like here? Crede likes it in Minneapolis, would he take another incentive-laden deal based on plate appearances or games played? Or does your gamber's mentality take you to Glaus?

Second Base: Ronnie Belliard, Jamey Carroll, Mark DeRosa, Jerry Hairston Jr, Adam Kennedy, Placido Polanco

Carroll is having a good season for a bad ballclub. Belliard is awful. Do you like DeRosa's versatility enough to pay your entire $7 million stipend? Because he'll come at a cost. Polanco's got a big head, so that's fun.

Shortstop: Orlando Cabrera, Alex Cora, Bobby Crosby, Adam Everett, Khalil Greene, Marco Scutaro, Miguel Tejada, Omar Vizquel

The reality is that no matter where you look in these four positional categories, a vast majority of what you see are either retreads trying to make a comeback, older guys hanging on, younger(ish) players who really aren't very good or other warts-ridden profiles. Keep in mind that this is a list of guys who could make $7 million or less per season, but even those who could make more than that aren't all that great. The few diamonds in the rough will be snatched up, quickly, and will likely be overpaid due to simple economics. So long, Jamey Carroll.

It's not a good free agent class, but in some ways this organization doesn't have a choice going into next season. Not signing a free agent will seem, to the masses (ignorant or not), like just another "stingy" move by a "stingy" front office, although there's been nothing stingy about this organization for years. It's a new stadium being filled with a handful of star players, and the public will expect the Twins to make a splash. Right or wrong.

How would you handle it? It's a complicated decision, and for a team that has more than its share of needs there won't be endless millions to throw around. Unless, of course, you want to make trades or cuts...but that's another story for another day.

I'll leave you to ponder for the time being, on the final off-day for the Twins as we head into the season's final trio of series. Let's enjoy some fall baseball tonight, cheer on the Indians, and I'll see you tomorrow.

Graph of the Day: Texas Rangers Payroll Breakdown and an open letter to Mr. Jon Daniels

Justin Bopp — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 14:00:27 -0000

(full size chart available HERE)

To Mr. Daniels:

First off, I clearly owe you an apology. I had it on good sources that you were about to sign Mark Prior to a minor league contract yesterday, and I wrote it up as I was breaking down your roster’s value. There’s a myriad of reasons why someone would think of you first when hearing of reclamation projects, as the names Jones, Vizquel, Gagne, and Bradley come to mind. As a perk for future free agent negotiations, you may consider investing in an assisted living facility with short term leases for these players: I would call it the Ben Sheets Baseball Hospice, but it’s just a consideration. Short version, and as I’ve heard frequently by now, you haven’t signed Mark Prior … yet.

But since we’re on the subject, consider signing Mark Prior. No, seriously. And try a conversion to short reliever. I’m not promising lights out (or even MLB caliber), but a healthy Prior (also the definition of a statistical anomaly) could be a ground ball power pitcher, which is a rarity. His fellow brother in the Tragically Abused By Dusty Baker Club: Chicago Chapter has had some middling success with it. You, of anyone in baseball, seem to appreciate the concept of buying low, and you can’t get much lower than this. He fits your needs a lot better than San Diego, and it would cost you peanuts.

Your catching situation is a huge mess, and it’s sad that it took injury to help sort it out. Both Saltalamacchia and Teagarden are upside guys (though Salty’s shine is wearing off pretty fast) who need the chance to play most everyday, regardless of their level. Having two young catchers on your roster (both of whom started the season with more value than they have now, thanks to you and Ron Washington) just accelerates the service clock and impedes development. I’d go with Teagarden (if no other reason than defense), but apparently you disagree: you’re playing an awful lot of Pudge recently. When he checks into the Ben Streets hospice, remember that he likes an upstairs room facing west.

You can count me among the myriad of fans (well, okay, casual observers) who believed that when your mega-infield of Blalock-Young-Soriano-Teixeira broke up, that there was no chance you would win even 70 games. You’ll have to forgive me – most of us were pretty defense-dumb back then. How a pitching staff can improve when Michael Young and Alfonso Soriano are replaced by Elvis Andrus and Ian Kinsler up the middle is truly awe-inspiring, and John Hart probably wouldn’t have had to have given the GDP of a Latin American banana republic to Chan Ho Park.

You aren’t like the Blue Jays … your division war is a winnable one. The Angels are aging, the A’s are a couple of years away, the Mariners are in the midst of cleaning up from an absolute disaster. If Chris Davis can show serious improvement, Josh Hamilton can stay legitimately healthy, and Kevin Millwood doesn’t precipitously decline, you could have a division title in 2010. Just don’t let it go to your heads. And don’t count on another livable year from Andruw Jones.

Sincerely,

Anxious in Amarillo

Credit - Walter Fulbright, Article; Justin Bopp, Charts

Happy Birthday, Mark Prior

Adam J. Morris — Mon, 07 Sep 2009 18:57:50 -0000

Happy birthday to Mark Prior, who turns 29 today.

In 2003, at the age of 22, Prior threw 211 1/3 innings, with a 2.43 ERA, striking out 245 hitters, walking just 50, and allowing 15 homers. He was third in the Cy Young balloting, 9th in the MVP balloting, and looked like the guy who would be a dominant pitcher for the next decade.

He threw 118 innings in 2004, 166 innings in 2005, 43 innings in 2006, and hasn't pitched in the majors since.

In 2003, Prior averaged 113.3 pitches per start, and in his final six starts (all in September), he had pitch counts of 131 (in a game the Cubs were leading 6-0 after 5), 129, 109, 124, 131, and 133.

Prior then threw 133 pitches on October 3, in Game 3 of the NLDS, 116 pitches 5 days later in the NLCS (in a game where the Cubs were up 7-0 after 3 and 11-0 after ), and 119 pitches 6 days after that in the NLCS.

Prior started the 2004 season on the disabled list and, of course, has never been the same since 2003.

Today, turning 29, his career appears to be over.

Hopefully, Dusty Baker will be sending him a card.

Not-Traded Harden Loses Strike Zone; Cubs Lose 16th In Last 24 Games

Al — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 12:30:16 -0000

by Paul Beaty - AP

Not your night, Rich.

View full size photo »

Maybe the Cubs should have traded Rich Harden.

After breezing through the first two innings last night, striking out four (although throwing an alarmingly large 33 pitches), Harden completely lost touch with the strike zone in the third inning. He doubled his pitch count in that inning alone, throwing another 33 pitches, issuing three walks and allowing a key two-run single to Cub-killer Carlos Lee. C-Lee drove in four runs and now has 47 RBI in 53 career games played at Wrigley Field.

The Astros held on to beat the Cubs 5-3, and the faint Cub playoff hopes dimmed even further. I won't give up until mathematical elimination -- and that's still quite a way off -- but obviously, things don't look very good. Since August 4, when the Cubs beat the Reds in Cincinnati to go a season-high 57-49, they are 8-16 and the Cardinals are 18-5. That's both a serious decline by the Cubs and an impressive run by St. Louis; only the Yankees at 18-6 are close to the Cardinals' record in that time frame.

This is a collapse not like the 1969 team, but more comparable to 1973, when the Cubs were 48-33 on July 1, eight games in first place, and then went on an 8-25 (yes, that's right, eight and twenty-five) skid that put them 56-58, five games out on August 8. I think this team is better than the '73 team, the last of the Williams/Santo/Jenkins/Kessinger/Beckert group that had run out of gas by then; I hope this year's team has one last run left in it.

Many of you have made comparisons between the 2009 Cubs and the thoroughly unlikable 2004 bunch that blew a sure wild-card berth in the last week of the season. I think the more apt comparison for 2009 is the 2005 team, the one that seemed poorly constructed from the beginning (Jim Hendry getting fooled by Jeromy Burnitz' big year in Colorado, signing him, expecting the same sort of production), and suffering injuries to key players (Nomar Garciaparra, Mark Prior) without having suitable backups. Remember how Dusty Baker, after giving Neifi Perez over 600 plate appearances and 136 starts, said, "Neifi saved us!" To which the response was, "From what?" On August 2, 2005 the Cubs stood at 54-52, four games out of the wild card lead and, as today, behind four other teams. They proceeded to lose eight games in a row, and by the time the carnage was over on August 29, had gone 8-17 and were out of it.

This team, again, I believe to be better than that one, but time is growing short, and they're not going to win many games leaving runners on third base with less than two out, as they did last night when Kosuke Fukudome couldn't bring Derrek Lee home after he had reached second on a dropped fly ball and gone to third on one of Aramis Ramirez's three line drives to Michael Bourn. The only positive from last night was, again, the work of the bullpen, who kept the team in the game. Aaron Heilman again threw two solid innings, and along with Kevin Gregg and John Grabow combined for four shutout, three-hit, six-strikeout innings.

All they can do is go out and win tonight, win the rest of the games on this homestand and try to sneak back into things. There was a fall-like chill in the late-August air last night; hopefully, that will not be an omen. And if the Cubs do fall out of it as their 2005 counterparts did, let us hope ownership and top management doesn't fool itself into thinking they will fix things as they did over the winter of 2005-06. The 2006 season, as you know, was a disaster. If 2009 isn't going to end up happily, at least let's have some hope for 2010.

Stephen Strasburg Update

Eli Greenspan — Mon, 17 Aug 2009 20:26:49 -0000

More photos » by Rich Schultz - AP

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Jon Heyman of SI.com is reporting that the Nationals' offer to first round draft pick Stephen Strasburg was in the ballpark of 12.5 million dollars. That seems a little low considering what Strasburg did last season with the Aztecs. While he has yet to throw a major league pitch, Strasburg owned an impressive 1.32 ERA with a 13-1 record. Not to mention his ability to throw an 100 mph fastball.

The record contract for an amateur pitcher was for 10.5 million dollars, which was given to Mark Prior in 2001. That was after Prior went 15-1 with a 1.70 ERA and struck out 202 batters in 138 innings. Strasburg pitched in just 109 innings, but struck out 195, strikingly similar to Prior when he was with USC.

One could argue that the Nationals offer is fair, but the fact of the matter is the Nationals are in dire need of pitching and in need of someone who could put fans in seats. Despite being 21 years old, Strasburg might be the only player that could do that for them. After the low ball offer and just 9 hours from the deadline, the Nationals new offer should be around 20 million dollars.

Poll

Will the Nationals sign Stephen Strasburg?

Yes

87 votes

No

89 votes

176 votes | Poll has closed

Of Rainouts, Stephen Strasburg And Scott Boras

Al — Sun, 16 Aug 2009 22:16:33 -0000

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Pirates Jesse Chavez and Delwyn Young amuse themselves during the rain delay.

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Really, Cubs management has to get a lot better at managing rain delays, among other things. If you've been reading here long enough, you'll remember me writing about the non-rain delay of August 23, 1999, when management under GM Ed Lynch made a full house sit from 7 till 9:15 pm without a single drop of rain falling -- they could have easily played six or seven innings -- only to have to postpone the game when the skies opened up at 9:15.

Today was nearly a similar fiasco. Just at the time the first pitch was about to be thrown at 1:20 -- and with nine fans standing on the field for the usual Sunday player-autograph promotion -- it started raining pretty hard. The hard rain lasted only a few minutes and it rained lightly for another 15 or so, and then stopped.

And stopped some more, and then some more. At about 2:30 PA announcer Paul Friedman let everyone know that "a severe storm was expected through in about an hour". That was the time to tell everyone to go home, since it wasn't raining and there could have been an orderly exit (unlike last August 4 when tornado warnings forced thousands to huddle in the concourse). In fact, thousands did leave at 2:30, and even before that, the Cubs' team bus had pulled up near the LF bleacher exit on Waveland -- was that a clue that they were going to start loading it up and leave?

The forecast of a 3:30 storm was a little off -- it didn't start raining until just after 4:00, by which time I had decided to leave and just beat a nasty little downpour back to my house. So, essentially, the Cubs sat around during a time when, except for a ten-minute downpour, they could have played most of today's game. Instead, they will be forced to likely play a doubleheader during the Pirates' next visit to Wrigley Field on September 29, 30 and October 1 (most likely, I think: a split DH on September 29, when a night game is already scheduled). The two teams have common off days on August 24 and September 10, but playing on the first of those dates would force the Cubs to play 34 days in a row and on the second, 32 days in a row -- so I think that's a very unlikely scenario.

I honestly don't know why the Cubs waited so long. The cynic in me says "to sell more beer", and indeed they did that -- in fact, no vendors appeared in the bleachers until after the 2:30 announcement. I know the Cubs have a private weather service to which they subscribe, and if this is the result -- time to get a new weather service! My cellphone and those of several others around me were calling up live radar images and, amateur meteorologist that I fashion myself, it appeared to me that once the rain did start, it wasn't going to stop. (It's still raining lightly right now as I post this at 5:15.) They either should have played through the game-time delay, or called it at 2:30..

At this writing the Padres are leading the Cardinals 5-4 in the 8th in a game that's also rain-delayed. If it ends that way the Cubs pick up a half game without doing a thing on the field, which is a good thing.

Tomorrow is the deadline for the Nationals to sign their #1 draft pick, the first choice in the June draft, Stephen Strasburg. Tom Boswell has a thoughtful piece in the Washington Post on this issue, and I found this comment about Scott Boras' tactics right on target:

Both sides live in an illusory bubble of entitled arrogance. Both sides need a reality check in 48 hours. Here's one for free.

The Lerners need to man up and make an offer that is high enough that Selig will be on the horn at 12:01 a.m. Tuesday screaming about the sanctity of the slotting system. It's the Lerners' job to run their Washington franchise -- and run it a lot better than they have -- not make their other 29 lodge members happy.

Boras needs to drop the pedantic professor of labor relations pose and rejoin the rest of us. There's a recession out there that wakes up every morning in a bad mood trying to decide whether it wants to become a depression. Nobody has any patience with a kid, or his agent, who can't beat Cuba in the Olympics or Virginia in the NCAA tournament, yet thinks he's too good to settle for a mega-millions-lottery contract.

Boras is in business to get a good deal for his client, not to break the system, tell us how awful it is that Strasburg might get "only" $20 million and threaten to have him play in Japan (that, incidentally, will never happen -- there's no way any NPB team would threaten good relations with MLB by doing that). In today's economy, with people losing their jobs left and right and millions hurting, Boras and Strasburg have a chance to set a good example by taking a large, but fair, offer. Here's a quote from Nats 3B Ryan Zimmerman that is exactly right:

"When it comes down to it, Strasburg has to think about, 'Can I go to bed if I turn down $15, 16 million dollars -- whatever it is -- to pass up the opportunity to play for these guys?' That's a lot of money. I don't understand what he thinks will be better next year. If we don't take him, who's gonna take him next year? Pittsburgh? San Diego? San Diego is not gonna pay him more. Absolutely his leverage will never be higher. Everybody wants to play where they want to play; everybody wants the ideal situation, but that's not the point of the draft. You can't tell people where you want to play. At some point, do it like everybody else has already done it. I agree, he's one of the better college pitchers ever to pitch, but he hasn't proven anything yet."

Ryan Zimmerman may be a few weeks short of 25 years old, but his wisdom on this issue is, im my opinion, 100% correct. Boswell says Strasburg may get an offer that will break the current draft record, set by Mark Prior, and perhaps Prior's career should be a cautionary tale to anyone involved in these negotiations. If the number is, say, $15 million or so, as Zimmerman says -- Strasburg needs to tell Boras, "You work for me. I want to play baseball. This is enough money for now." And get it done.

Washington Post's Thomas Boswell Reports: Stephen Strasburg Offered "Record-Setting" Contract.

Ed Chigliak — Sat, 15 Aug 2009 15:44:36 -0000

More photos » by Lenny Ignelzi - AP

6 months ago: FILE - In this April 3, 2009, file photo, San Diego State pitcher Stephen Strasburg throws during a game in San Diego. The Washington Nationals selected Strasburg with the No. 1 overall pick in the baseball draft on Tuesday, June 9, 2009. (AP Photo/Lenny Ignelzi, File)

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According to a Nationals Journal post by Washington Post writer Thomas Boswell entitled, "Nats Offer Strasburg Record-Setting Contract", the Washington Nationals, "...have offered No. 1 overall draft pick Stephen Strasburg the largest contract ever for a pitcher taken in the amateur draft." Mr. Boswell's citing "industry sources" in the article, wherein he writes that the "...offer has been on table for some time," and could be worth as much as, "$14-$16 million, a third to a half higher than the current benchmark contract," the $10.5 million Mark Prior received from the Chicago Cubs back in 2001.

Mr. Boswell writes that the Nationals' approach to signing Strasburg is similar to the approach they took in pursuing the prize free agent on the market this past winter, Mark Teixeira, who was given an early 8-year/$160 million dollar offer that was reportedly raised to around $188 million before the switch-hitting first baseman decided on pinstripes. Mr. Boswell also mentions, once more, Strasburg's agent Scott Boras' claim that Strasburg deserves a contract commensurate with those signed by some recent free agent pitchers, like Daisuke Matsuzaka's 6-year/$52 million dollar deal.

No comment in the story from the Strasburg camp.

2009 NL Wild Card: the Los Angeles Dodgers?

Poseidon's Fist — Mon, 10 Aug 2009 16:17:29 -0000

More photos » by Keith Birmingham - AP

Will we sing this come October? "The LA Dodgers sat high on a wall. The LA Dodgers had a great fall. Ned Colletti and Torre's tired pen. Couldn't put LA together again"

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We have have heard for months that the NL West race was decided, that the Dodgers would be triumphant. Literally four months.

On June 29, Eric Stephen of TrueBlueLA emphatically stated:

THE NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST HAS ALREADY BEEN DECIDED. THE RACE IS OVER.

Eric's argument was the Dodgers' historical success of converting such leads to division titles. That's all well and good, but quite frankly, Maury Wills and Odalis Perez have far less to do with this race than Rafael Betancourt, Clayton Kershaw or Freddy Sanchez.

Barely a month into the season on May 6, Dave Cameron proclaimed on Fangraphs that the race was over. Obviously, shaping his main argument around injured Diamondbacks was incredibly faulty reasoning, in retrospect.

After the Dodgers dropped 5 of 7 last week at home (their first losing homestand), the Rockies and Giants have each pulled within 5.5 games in second place. There haven't been two teams that close to the Dodgers since May 13. The last time the Giants were 5.5 back was May 14 - for the Rockies, April 29.

LA has lost Clayton Kershaw's last four starts, Randy Wolf has just one win in his last five, Chad Billingsley is hobbled and Jason Schmidt just went to the disabled list. Suffice it to say, the personnel of the Dodgers' rotation remains in flux. The difficulty of Dodgers' starters to go deep into games has forced Joe Torre to overwork his bullpen. It has been mentioned multiple times, but it bears repeating.

The Dodgers' pen has thrown the 2nd-most innings in MLB. Notice who have thrown the 2nd and 3rd least, respectively. Can their bullpen keep up? Broxton and Belisario have both had stints on the DL already, and George Sherrill was initiated into the tired-arm club in his fourth appearance with a 31-pitch outing Friday, a season-high.

The gap is closing. Even SportsCenter and Buster Olney have acknowledged the shrinking lead in the last 24 hours. The only question is if there's enough time. San Francisco has 9 games left against Los Angeles, the Rockies 6. So technically, both teams control their own destiny in the division. With about 50 games to play, either team just has to make up one game out of each ten on Los Angeles the rest of the way. In the past ten games, the Rockies have made up 3 games and the Giants two.

The scary part for Los Angeles is that word either. Just as a comeback is more difficult with multiple teams in front of you, losing a division lead is more likely when more teams are on your tail. It only takes one of the two teams to get hot or sweep a head-to-head series to become a real threat.

Conveniently, the Giants host the Dodgers for three starting tonight, where San Francisco is a sizzling 33-18. A sweep brings them within 2.5. Meanwhile, the Rockies will toy with the remnants of the Pirates roster, including tonight, when we face erstwhile Pirate Tom Gorzelanny vs the Cubs.

Is it time to panic for Joe Torre? Sadly, no. As Eric Stephen so astutely notes, every World Series champion this decade has had 17-game stretches as bad and as frequently, if not more, than Los Angeles has this season. Baseball Prospectus gives LA an 89% chance of taking the division still, or 78% through PECOTA projections, 77% via ELO odds. They still have the best record in the NL, and only the Yankees have a better record overall.

It's not time to panic, but Los Angeles would be wise to clean off their rearview mirrors. The monstrous Giants and giant Rockies in the mirror are most definitely closer than they appear.

NL West Report

Los Angeles (67-45, 1st, L3)

Last Week: 2-5. 1-2 vs Brewers. 1-3 vs Braves.

Pace: 97-65.

Divisional Change: Lost 1.5 game lead on SF and COL.

This Week: 3 game road series @ Giants. 3 game road series @ Diamondbacks.

News: Chad Billingsley was forced to leave his last start with a hamstring strain. That was the same headline after his previous start as well.

Chad Billingsley

#58 / Pitcher / Los Angeles Dodgers

Height: 6-1

Weight: 245

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Jul 29, 1984

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Chad Billingsley	11-6	3.73	1.28	143	66

LA won't put their ace on the DL, choosing instead to be cautious with Billingsley. On one hand, a ginger Billingsley is far better than their other options, but losing him longterm would be incredibly debilitating. They've had difficulty enough filling the 5th starter spot. Requiring 40% of their starts to be via stopgap starters would put their divisional champagne on ice.

Jon Heyman reported a blockbuster deal that failed. Adrian Gonzalez and Heath Bell for James Loney, Russell Martin, James McDonald, Blake Dewitt, and Ivan Dejesus. Not surprisingly, it was reported later that the rumor was completely false.

ESPN reports the Dodgers are interested in John Smoltz, who was DFA'd by the Red Sox.

By adding George Sherrill, the Dodgers took on about $1 million in payroll, roughly half what the cheapskate Rockies added in Betancourt and Beimel (~$1.9million).

Eric Stephen's Week in Review is called "Don't Stop the Bleedin'" (?). Let's hope his tribute to journey rings true while we adopt the song's true namesake as our rally cry.

Transactions: Optioned Scott Elbert and Cory Wade to AAA. Recalled Eric Stults. Acquired 25yo RHP Harvey Garcia from PIT for a PTBNL.

Injuries: Activated Ronald Belisario from 15-day DL and placed Jason Schmidt on the 15-day DL. Transferred Will Ohman from 15-day DL to 60-day DL.

Los Angeles Dodgers Injuries

Doubtful

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Chad Billingsley	hamstring	08/08/2009

15-Day

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Will Ohman	shoulder	05/28/2009
Jason Schmidt	shoulder	08/06/2009

60 Day DL / Out for the season

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Eric Milton	lower-back	06/28/2009
Doug Mientkiewicz	shoulder	04/17/2009
Xavier Paul	ankle	05/21/2009

News on the other three divisional teams after the jump.

Arizona (50-62, 4th, L3, 17 GB)

Last Week: 4-3. 1-0 @ Mets, 3-0 @ Pirates, 0-3 @ Nationals.

Pace: 72-90.

Divisional Change: Gained 2 games.

This Week: 3 game home series vs Mets. 3 game home series vs Dodgers.

News: Brandon Webb underwent surgery last week, effectively ending his bid to return to the Diamondbacks this season. There is no timetable for his recovery, though the surgery on his labrum went well. This also means, as I've noted before, that Webb's last start in Diamondbacks duds would be Opening Day this year, unless Arizona picks up the expensive option on damaged goods.

Arizona signed the talented but wild Daniel Cabrera.

Daniel Cabrera

#45 / Pitcher / Arizona Diamondbacks

Height: 6-9

Weight: 270

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: May 28, 1981

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Daniel Cabrera	0-5	9	8	0	0	0	0	40.0	48	39	26	4	35	16	5.85	2.08

AZ Snakepit reacts to the signing.

I found this article interesting, in the vein of the Jason Jennings/iPod piece. Max Scherzer uses advanced stats to evaluate his performance. The article description calls the stats obscure, but Rowbots are well-versed in the "obscure." After a couple rough starts, the Scherz comforted himself by noting BABIP abnormalities, while his season goal is to be a 4.0+ WAR pitcher.

Yusmeiro Petit was the definition of a 5th starter last week: inconsistent. The Petit Unit extended his scoreless innings streak to 14 by taking a no-hitter into the eighth on Tuesday, then lasted just 4 innings in giving up 4 runs and 9 hits to Washington yesterday.

Conor Jackson is eyeing the start of a rehab stint. He has been out three months with to Valley Fever, but may be able to start a rehab assignment as soon as next week, putting him in line to be activated in September.

Josh Byrnes predicts a busy waiver-trading season, which could include D-Backs Jon Garland and Doug Davis.

Transactions: Called up OF Trent Oeltjen. Optioned C Luke Carlin to AAA.

Injuries: Placed Justin Upton on 15-day DL. Activated Chris Snyder from 15-day DL.

Arizona Diamondbacks Injuries

15-Day

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Eric Byrnes	hand	06/26/2009
Justin Upton	oblique	08/06/2009

60 Day DL / Out for the season

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Tom Gordon	hamstring	05/04/2009
Conor Jackson	pneumonia	05/12/2009
Brandon Webb	shoulder	04/07/2009

San Diego (47-66, 5th, L1, 20.5 GB)

Last Week: 4-3. 1-2 vs Braves, 3-1 vs Mets.

Pace: 67-95.

Divisonal change: Gained 2.0 games.

This Week: 3 game road series @ Brewers, 3 game road series vs. Cardinals.

News: Buster Olney says that Adrian Gonzalez was more likely to be a Mariner if he was traded than play for any other team. Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times discusses the failed trade at length.

Rox fans can relate to this: Padres' first-rounder Drew Tate has yet to sign. Tate is registered for classes at North Carolina and will reportedly play baseball and football at Chapel Hill if he doesn't sign. Football practices start this week for UNC.

David Eckstein didn't want to be traded to a contender. Not only is he a gritty gamer, but he's unselfish as well. He actually wants to help stick around San Diego and help influence Padres rebuilding plan.

The Friars hope to rebuild via arms a la Braves of the 90's. Aaron Poreda, Clayton Richard, Mat Latos and Adys Portillo surely won't become Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, John Smoltz and Steve Avery, but it's still the right plan.

Padres release Prior after not seeing enough progress with rehab.

Mark Prior

#22 / Pitcher / San Diego Padres

Height: 6-5

Weight: 230

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Sep 07, 1980

The headline to this article will insult your intelligence.

Chad Gaudin was traded to the Yankees.

Everth Cabrera hit a walkoff grand slam off K-Rod Saturday, his second career HR.

Transactions: Optioned RHP Josh Geer to AAA. Geer was leading the Milky Way in HR allowed. Recalled RHP Ryan Webb from AAA. DFA'd catcher Jose Lobaton. Optioned outfielder Drew Macias tto AAA.

Injuries: Activated catcher Henry Blanco from the 15-day disabled list. Activated second baseman David Eckstein from the 15-day disabled list. Transferred Brian Giles and Chris Young to the 60-day DL.

San Diego Padres Injuries

15-Day

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Nick Hundley	forearm	06/18/2009
Brian Giles	knee	06/19/2009
Edgar Gonzalez	concussion	07/19/2009

60 Day DL / Out for the season

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Mark Worrell	elbow	03/27/2009
Cha Seung Baek	forearm	03/30/2009
Shawn Hill	elbow	04/26/2009
Chris Young	shoulder	06/15/2009
Cliff Floyd	shoulder	06/18/2009

San Francisco (61-50, t-2nd, L1, 5.5 GB)

Last Week: 3-3. 2-1 @ Astros, 1-2 vs Reds.

Pace: 89-73.

Divisional Change: Gained 1.5 games.

This Week: 3 game home series vs Dodgers, first 3 games of 4 game series @ Mets. On one hand, the Giants draw a struggling team in which no extra motivation is necessary at home and a struggling, bad team, on the road. On the other, they are facing the NL's best team by record and a team that ate the Rockies alive at home.

News: San Francisco added $2.1million in payroll to acquire Freddy Sanchez, $200,000 more than it took the Rockies to bring in Beimel and Betancourt.

Peterson: Giants' rivals also busy making trades - San Jose Mercury News

Tim Lincecum was co-NL Player of the Week for the last week of July. He shared it with Josh Willingham, who had two grand slams in a game. Willingham was heavily rumored to be a trade target for Brian Sabean, but the Giants didn't pull the trigger.

Matt Cain is struggling. To wit:

Month	Starts	W-L	ER	ERA	HR
July	6	3-0	4	0.94	1
August	2	0-2	9	5.40	4

After allowing only four runs in six July starts, Cain has lost both his starts in August, allowing nine runs to the Reds and Astros. He had allowed 2 HR in a game just once this year, but did so in both of his last two starts, meaning he has allowed as many HR in August in two starts as he did runs in six July starts.
Matt Cain stats, news, and photos on ESPN.com.

Matt Cain

#18 / Pitcher / San Francisco Giants

Height: 6-3

Weight: 245

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Oct 01, 1984

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Matt Cain	12-4	23	23	4	0	0	0	155.0	125	44	42	16	56	124	2.44	1.17

Grant at McCovey Chronicles muses on the general surliness of Giants fans. He blames the lack of success on the field in recent years and reason to temper enthusiasm by the bay despite a competitive team.

Beyond the Box Score still doesn't buy the Giants' legitimacy.

Transactions: Optioned outfielder John Bowker to AAA.

Injuries: Activated infielder Rich Aurilia (toe) from the 15-day disabled list. Transferred pitcher Randy Johnson to the 60-day disabled list. Placed Henry Sosa on the 60-day DL. Activated Joe Martinez from the 60 day DL.

San Francisco Giants Injuries

15-Day

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Nate Schierholtz	hip	07/27/2009
Andres Torres	hamstring	07/31/2009

60 Day DL / Out for the season

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Randy Johnson	trapezius	07/06/2009
Noah Lowry	ribs	03/27/2009
Kelvin Pichardo	shoulder	06/28/2009
Henry Sosa	shoulder	08/05/2009

Poll

What do you think about the NL West race?

Irrational optimism is cute. This race has been over for months

29 votes

Guardedly optimistic. It's definitely doable, but I doubt it will happen

166 votes

I'll drink that Kool-Aid. Either the Giants or Rockies will catch them

141 votes

Oblivious. Nudge me if the deficit is cut to 2 games.

25 votes

361 votes | Poll has closed

SB Nation - Mark Prior

Starting Pitchers: Damaged Goods Available

Rich Harden

#40 / Pitcher / Chicago Cubs

Ben Sheets

#15 / Pitcher / Milwaukee Brewers

Erik Bedard

#45 / Pitcher / Seattle Mariners

Conclusions

Which of these three pitchers do you prefer?

Rich Harden

Ben Sheets

Erik Bedard

None of the above

2009-10 Do-It-Yourself Offseason Trade/Free Agent Post

Minnesota Twins 2010 Roster & Payroll (Part II)

Graph of the Day: Texas Rangers Payroll Breakdown and an open letter to Mr. Jon Daniels

Happy Birthday, Mark Prior

Not-Traded Harden Loses Strike Zone; Cubs Lose 16th In Last 24 Games

Stephen Strasburg Update

Will the Nationals sign Stephen Strasburg?

Yes

No

Of Rainouts, Stephen Strasburg And Scott Boras

Washington Post's Thomas Boswell Reports: Stephen Strasburg Offered "Record-Setting" Contract.

2009 NL Wild Card: the Los Angeles Dodgers?

THE NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST HAS ALREADY BEEN DECIDED. THE RACE IS OVER.

NL West Report

Los Angeles (67-45, 1st, L3)

Chad Billingsley

#58 / Pitcher / Los Angeles Dodgers

Los Angeles Dodgers Injuries

Doubtful

15-Day

60 Day DL / Out for the season

Arizona (50-62, 4th, L3, 17 GB)

Daniel Cabrera

#45 / Pitcher / Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona Diamondbacks Injuries

15-Day

60 Day DL / Out for the season

San Diego (47-66, 5th, L1, 20.5 GB)

Mark Prior

#22 / Pitcher / San Diego Padres

San Diego Padres Injuries

15-Day

60 Day DL / Out for the season

San Francisco (61-50, t-2nd, L1, 5.5 GB)

Matt Cain

#18 / Pitcher / San Francisco Giants

San Francisco Giants Injuries

15-Day

60 Day DL / Out for the season

What do you think about the NL West race?

Irrational optimism is cute. This race has been over for months

Guardedly optimistic. It's definitely doable, but I doubt it will happen

I'll drink that Kool-Aid. Either the Giants or Rockies will catch them

Oblivious. Nudge me if the deficit is cut to 2 games.