SB Nation - Davis Romero

Breaking Down Arnsberg: What Are the Astros Getting?

davoag — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 13:00:27 -0000

More photos » by Darren Calabrese - AP

Is the criticism of Brad Arnsberg justified?

In case you missed the FanShot from last Friday, the Astros hired a new pitching coach. Brad Arnsberg comes with a reputation as a young pitcher-killer, but was loved by all his staffs and seemed to be able to work some magic with 'reclamation projects.' The World Wide Web was abuzz with articles about his abundance, or lack thereof, of talent. A fine hat-tip to clack and AstroAndy for linking to them.

What I wanted to do, though, is to see if it was warranted. What we're really worried about here are young pitchers, right? Guys 24 years old and younger are in the prime area for suffering from over-use. There are two different models out there currently used to predict injuries to young pitchers. Both were researched pretty thoroughly, but it's hard to tell if they're good predictors of injury potential or just good at explaining what happened in the past.

When I went back to research Arnsberg, I looked at every staff he had from 2000 in Montreal to 2002 with the Marlins and through his five-year tenure in Toronto. I focused on all the pitchers he had that were 24 or younger. This is a bit of a departure from the model, since they stop at 25, but since two-thirds of his stops were of the one-year variety, I downgraded the age a year. The two methods I mentioned were Tom Verducci's theory on an increase in innings from year to year, most recently laid out here. The other was Pitching Abuse Points (PAP), first published back in 1998 by Rany Jazayerli here. I believe it's been tweaked a bit here and there since then, but it's a good starting place for the discussion. My results after the jump...

Arnsberg oversaw 28 different pitchers in their Age 24 season or younger. His biggest year for this was in 2000 in Montreal, when 10 different young pitchers got into games. The 2000 season also seemed to be a learning year for Arnsberg as to how best to utilize pitchers. Of the 10, only one threw more innings than the previous season (Javier Vasquez, +63 IP) and only one had more than 10 PAP per start (Vasquez, 16 PAP). Carl Pavano pitched seven fewer innings than in 1999, but had a PAP/Start of 4.8 and then suffered an injury the following season. The rest all had significant drops in innings pitched and none had more than 2 PAP/start. None of the relievers in his bullpen threw three straight days and only Pavano suffered an injury the following season. Knowing what we do now about Carl, it's easy to see it probably wasn't Arnsberg's fault.

The next year he surfaced was in 2002 with the Marlins. Five guys played at 24 or younger and two of the five had jumps higher than 30 innings. Both Justin Wayne and Nate Robertson pitched over 40 innings more than the previous season, but each threw the majority of their innings in the minors, not the majors. It's hard for me to pin these jumps on Arnsberg for that reason, since their workload was controlled by the minor league pitching coordinator, not the big league pitching coach. As for the other three, Josh Beckett threw 47 less innings than the previous season and averaged 2.1 PAP per start. Pretty reasonable for a 22-year old. Brad Penny had a 69 inning drop in his workload and had 0.8 PAP/start. The other guy in this group was Blaine Neal, a reliever who saw his workload go up by six innings and was used three straight days twice that season. One of those times, though was on both ends of a double-header, when he faced just one batter in the first game. No real injury trouble here, at least not by Arnsberg's work. Beckett had the blister problems, but that's not related to overuse and Penny did have arm trouble, but much later than this.

On to the Toronto years, where Arnsberg saw an impressive group of young pitchers hit the big leagues. In his first season, he had five pitchers in the age range we are looking at. Two drastically increased their inning total (Dustin McGowan, +70, Chad Gaudin +74) while one starter also saw an uptick into the danger zone (Gustavo Chacin +36). The other two guys, Brandon League and Shaun Marcum had smaller increases or decreases, but only Chacin had any PAP to speak of. Chacin's total of 3.7 PAP/start is high, but not distressingly so and his innings increase was slight in comparison to McGowan's. Still, Chacin did suffer a major drop-off in performance and had an injury or two thrown in for good measure. Of course, his delivery is a bit quirky and he came out of nowhere to begin with, so it's hard to say whether Arnsberg led to this flameout. Certainly, the other guys on this list went on to have solid years after 2005, so we may just be dealing with a small sample size.

In 2006, Arnsberg oversaw seven young pitchers, including newcomers Casey Janssen, Ty Taubenheim, Jeremy Accardo and Davis Romero. Accardo, Romero and Dustin McGowan all had inning increases but the rest saw their totals drop. Janssen was the only pitchers with more than 1 PAP/start and his was exactly one. Marcum saw his total drop by 35 innings and had a PAP of 0.8 while League had a slight drop in innings, but was used twice three games in a row. Taubenheim moved from a starter's role in the minors to the bullpen in the majors, which explains his 60-inning drop. None of the evidence here supports the conclusion that misuse led to any injuries.

In 2007, there were only four pitchers in our age-range, including two holdovers, League and Taubenheim. Newcomers Jesse Litsch and Josh Banks both saw increases, though Litsch saw his total rise by 29 innings, just underneath the magic threshold. Litsch also had just 0.7 PAP/start, meaning he wasn't throwing a ton of pitches. League saw his total drop by 59 innings, in part due to injury (I think, though I can't find it anywhere). Taubenheim had his total rise by 15, but was not used in more than two straight games, so he didn't really get overworked.

Litsch was the only pitcher considered young in 2008 and he saw his total innings drop by 11, but his PAP jumped up to 4.2 per start. More distressingly, though was how he was used down the stretch. From August 21 to September 29, Litsch started nine games and threw 61 innings and 980 pitches. He totaled 88 PAP for an average of 9.7 per start, a huge jump over the beginning of the season. He went 5-4 over this stretch and had an average game score of 62.4. Those were both reasons why he pitched so much, I'm sure. He was doing so well that the Jays wanted to keep him pitching to keep them in the race, as the team got to 12 games over .500 on Sept. 12. However, Litsch was pretty much abused during this stretch. He was used once on two days' rest, throwing 49 pitches over three innings and was used once on three days' rest in the back half of a doubleheader. Litsch threw 110 pitches over 5 1/3 innings.

In 2009, Litsch was shut down in April and finally had Tommy John surgery in June. I think it's safe to say that his usage pattern at the end of 2008 may have led to this, but we can't be certain. Arnsberg's last year with Toronto saw five pitchers in our age-group, including Litsch. Ricky Romero, Brett Cecil, Mark Rzepczynski and Brad Mills made major-league debuts and all but Mills saw increases in their inning totals. None saw jumps of over 30, though they all had more PAP than in Arnsberg's past. Romero tallied 6.3 PAP/start and saw his innings jump 14, while Brett Cecil had a jump of 24 innings and 2.1 PAP/start. Rzepczynski made the jump straight from Double-A and saw an increase in 28 innings while having a PAP of 3.8 per start.

What does this mean? Arnsberg gets blamed for the injuries to Marcum and McGowan, but in their formative years with the club, you can see he really didn't do much to hurt them. Only in 2008 did his usage patterns significantly change, and that also coincided with a new manager, Mr. Old School Cito Gaston. This is a classic example of a guy from a bygone era trying to throw pitchers out there like they did in the '70's and hoping it will work. In 2008, for example, Gaston used pitchers on short rest six times, while the American League average was just 3.7. In 2009, he was right in line with the league average of 3, but it still shows that he used his pitchers differently than most of the league. Arnsberg didn't like it, and clashed with his manager as was chronicled here and here. I'm not sure you can blame Arnsberg for what happened to Litsch but you definitely can't blame him for Marcum and McGowan. B.J. Ryan also can't be blamed on him, nor can A.J. Burnett, as both guys had either a history of injuries or a jump in innings before coming to Toronto.

At least one place is mad Arnsberg left Toronto, while there are a couple other places that still levy criticism. I'm not sure how Arnsberg will do with Houston, but I do know he's got a pretty good track record of keeping the young guys healthy. He'll have a tough time on his hands next season, though, as Bud Norris saw a 95 inning jump in his workload, though his PAP/start was just 0.5. Yorman Bazardo was also in the danger zone with a 34 inning jump, and his performance doesn't need any regression. The only worrying part of the bullpen was Sammy Gervacio being used three straight days three different times and once for four straight games. Of course, the 24-year old only threw more than 20 pitches in a game twice, so it's not as worrisome as it appears.

To review, Arnsberg coached for four different managers and only under Gaston did his track record go astray. Out of all his young pitchers, just three were inordinately abused: Chacin, Litsch and Vasquez. Now, we can see that Vasquez was just built to hold up to a higher workload, similar to Roy Halladay. Still, it doesn't excuse the abuse in the first place. Is Gaston more to blame for the last couple of seasons in Toronto? We can't REALLY tell, but after reviewing all this, I certainly feel better about the Astros' new pitching coach.

And I know my time is surely gonna come: Prospect Midseason Report: Vol. 2

Tom Dakers — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 06:48:34 -0000

More photos » by Darren Calabrese - AP

Scott Richmond was number 14 on our preseason top 30 prospects list. . (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Darren Calabrese)

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Continuing our look at how our top 30 prospects are progressing this season, with the second volume, covering prospects 11-20 in our list. I'm sticking with lyrics from the song Hugo chose, Ryan Adam's 'In My Time of Need'. And he's right, Ryan is far superior to Bryan any day, though I'll admit to having had an unexplainable like for Bryan's song 'Straight From the Heart' or at least the live version if it. It goes on my list of guilty pleasures.

Anyway, I'll, once again note that the prospect list was complied before the season and that there will be changes made to it after the season. Like any prospect list, some guys will turn out and some won't.

The review comes after the jump.

11. Marc Rzepczynski: Likely the guy that has done the most to solidify his place as a Jay prospect on our list. After 14 Double-A starts, he's moved up to Vegas. Two starts and 2 wins in Vegas with a 0.79 ERA has us looking at him as a possible call up if (please no) another starter goes down with an injury. Between the two levels he is averaging 10.6 strikeouts/9 innings and has only given up 1 homer in 88 innings. He is an extreme ground ball pitch, getting 2.35 ground outs/ fly out. Only negative this year is he is walking a few too many, 4.1/9 innings though he has done a little better in his two Triple-A starts. A lefty that throws low 90's, has a curve, slider and changeup can have a good major league career. 23 years old now, he likely will be fighting for a rotation spot in spring of next year.

12. Robert Ray: Ray made 1 start in Vegas at the end of April then was called up to the Jays. He made 4 starts with the Jays, 1 excellent start, 8 innings, 3 hits, no earned runs. 1 ok start and 2 bad ones. Then the Jays tried to send him back down to Vegas but found he had a shoulder injury and put him on the DL instead. The Jays haven't said much about the injury but he is to be out until late July. That he pitched in the majors shows that the Jays like him but we don't know how much the injury will set him back.

13. Brian Jeroloman: The Jays put Jeroloman in Double-A New Hampshire so that he and JP Arencibia could both play every day. You would think at 24 Jeroloman and in his second year at Double-A he would be raking. Well, he's not, batting .248/.346/.369 with 5 homers. He's striking out too much 30.2% of the time. The sad part is his batting average is being helped out by a .333 BABIP. He hit much better last year in AA. His arm is showing well, he is throwing out 40%. I get the feeling if he makes the majors he'll be a catch and throw guy like Raul Chavez but he'll likely take the odd walk. I'd say he'd drop back some next time we do the prospect's list, but ten we don't have a lot of catching prospects. Right now he projects as a backup catcher.

14. Scott Richmond: don't know what happened to him.

15. Balbino Fuenmayor: His first season of full season ball isn't going well so far, he's hitting .226/.261/.344 in Lansing. He did have a very good May .307/.316/.453 and July has started well, .333/.412/.400. He's just 19 so he's got a long way to go. At 6'3" and 235, you gotta wonder if he'll be moving across the infield at infield at some point, he'd be a heck of a target for throws at first base, he's played 11 games there so far this year. He's made 7 errors at 3^rd in 28 games. Like most 19 year olds, their first season at A-Ball, he's striking out too much, 30.3% and not walking near enough 1.8%, he was some better last year walking at a still too low rate of 5.8%, again at 19 he has time to learn. Likely there is power potential to come. He was said to have good range at third but that was before he put on 30 pounds in the last year.

16. Tim Collins: 19 years old and in Dunedin. If a relief pitcher can be called a prospect, he's the one. In 43.2 innings he's struck out 67 batters, add in that he only has allowed 6.4 hits/9 innings and you can see why he's liked. 19 walks is a little high but a 3.53 SO/W rate is pretty terrific and only 2 home runs allowed is great too. As he has a .341 BABIP he is actually pitching better than his 2.47 ERA suggests. At 5'7" and 155 pounds he is pretty small, he isn't going to come in and scare anyone but he can pitch. The Jays are stretching him out a little but I wouldn't expect him to become a starter anytime in his career, but he has pitched 3 innings in an appearance this year. A lefty, he does do better against lefty batters but I think he's got better in his future than just a LOOGY role. I'm rooting for him.

17. Eric Eiland: Eric is an athlete who the Jays hoped would grow into a player. He hasn't happened yet. He took a step back this year, having played at Lansing last year, he's back at Auburn short season ball this year. He is having a slow start there hitting .229/.362/.333 in his first 14 games this year. He has learned to take a walk, walking 19.2% of the time. He is only 20 and has amazing speed, but the bat doesn't seem to be progressing. He's been a bit better so far in July, hitting .273/.385/.545. Hopefully as the season progresses so will his bat. 8 steals in 14 games is pretty good too. He is just 20 and with his speed he could be a terrific center fielder and if he can get on base enough his speed would be great on the base paths.

18. Bradley Emaus: He had a terrific spring training and the Jays moved him to Double-A New Hampshire and he is having a tough time of it, like many players do the first time at Double-A. He's hitting .235/.304/.368. At 23 he's not too young for the level and should be doing better. It is a little stange, he hit in the .280's in April and May and then stopped hitting in June (.128). July is going better so far (.263). Have to wonder if there was an injury in June that we didn't know about. A right handed batter, he isn't hitting lefties at all (.195). He keeps a pretty low strikeout rate, 12.7%, he could walk a little more, 8.4% this year. He has shown good speed with 7 steals. If you ignore June he's doing pretty well this year. Of course, if you ignore my worst days, I'm a pretty good guy too, but still I'm taking it for granted something was wrong in June.

19. Davis Romero: A year ago, I felt, Davis was passing Ricky on the prospects list. I've been more wrong before, but not often. Davis has moved from the starting rotation to the bullpen in Vegas this year. He hasn't been doing well with a 5.67 ERA, 12 hits/9innings, 4.5 walks/9 and dropping to 6.6 SO/9. Yeah, I think he'll drop off the prospects list after this year. He's 26 now and if he was a prospect he'd be in Toronto by now. Going from 9 hits/9 last year to 12 this year isn't a good trend as is going from a 3.71 ERA last year to a 5.67 one this year. He has had shoulder injuries the last couple of seasons and is regaining strength still but at 26 now, likely his days as a prospect are nearly over.

20. Tyler Pastornicky: He is in just his second year in professional ball and at 19 years of age Tyler is having a really good season in A-ball Lansing. He is hitting .277/.349/.339, he has 5 triples and 39 steals in just 78 games. He had a poor May (.203 BA) but has improved each month of the season. He takes a decent number of walks (29 in 319 PA, this year), likely he'll learn to take more, and his strikeout rate is good (12.6%). You have to like that from such a young man. He has made 19 errors but then he's just 19 and A-Ball diamonds aren't known for their true bounces, he has good range. I think there is a fair chance that he passes Justin Jackson somewhere along the trail to the majors. Jackson has better ‘tools' but Pastornicky is the more complete player at the moment. He has no power but he has time to find some and with his speed he could be the type of offensive player we haven't had in a long while. But he is a few years away from the Majors.

Monday Morning Roundup

hugo — Mon, 11 May 2009 12:59:38 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Chiu - AP

7 months ago: Toronto Blue Jays' Kevin Millar, left, celebrates with Alex Rios, center, and Marco Scutaro after the Blue Jays beat the Oakland Athletics in a baseball game on Sunday, May 10, 2009, in Oakland, Calif. The Blue Jays won, 5-0. (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu)

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Hi everyone. Wow, was that a fun game yesterday. Some small items of news:

Great day for the Las Vegas 51s yesterday - so great for two particular players that it can't wait for the next minor-league update. Fabio Castro hasn't let the PCL bother him in the slightest - he had another shutdown outing yesterday with 6 scoreless innings in which he gave up just 3 singles and a walk (striking out 2), earning the win. Davis Romero pitched reasonably well too, in picking up the 3-inning save (one of those crazy little baseball rules I love). At the plate, J.P. Arencibia wielded the big bat, going 4-5 with a double, a home run, and 3 RsBI.

Casey Janssen will make a rehab start for New Hampshire on Tuesday . You have to figure that as long as things go well, this'll be Casey's last rehab start - he has been lights-out in his prior 3 but with the rotation so sturdy, there's been little reason to rush him back. Ricky Romero will follow Janssen with a rehab start on Wednesday.

Brett Cecil grew up a Yankee fan. Since he's cluing us in now instead of after signing a big free agent deal with the Yankees, for him it's probably actually true.

Big props to Richard Griffin for the best piece of Jays-related writing I've read recently - this excellent article on Scott Rolen. I won't say I agree with every sentence in the article, but it was well-written, thoughtful, and informative.

Brian Tallet has been moved up so as to be scheduled to start against Andy Pettitte and the Yankees on Thursday. Makes sense, with the off-day and all.

Highway 19 Revisited: Spring Training Week in Review, Pitchers Edition

hugo — Thu, 12 Mar 2009 03:03:00 -0000

Another week gone, and the Jays' pitching continues to look good. Doc looks scary good, Litsch is pink, round, and efficient as ever, Purcey has been effective if a little erratic, and it's actually something of a battle for the last two spots, with Janssen, Richmond, Mills, Cecil, and Clement all looking worthy of a spot and Romero turning a much better performance in his most recent appearance. Here's the rundown:

The Ice Is Getting Thinner: Spring Training Week One in Review - Part I, Pitchers

hugo — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 01:17:05 -0000

Here at Bluebird Banter, we'll be following the hopefuls at spring training in their attempt to make the Jays. Here's how your corvid hurlers did in the first week of spring training. For brevity, I've not included every single player in Jays' camp, but have enough of them to make things interesting, I hope. And we haven't included players who are guaranteed a spot, barring unforseen injury. Tomorrow we will take a look at the hitters!

The Magnificent Seven: The Dangling Conversation, Part XIII - Ongoing Offseason Jays Conversation

hugo — Sat, 24 Jan 2009 22:55:53 -0000

Hi everyone. This is the last installment of this series, before we start to look at some keys to the season, pose some questions to y'all, continue our community projections, and look at our competition. Oh, and the title comes from a great Clash song and I hope will describe the Jays 2009 bullpen (though I'd be even happier if it were the magnificent 6) Without further ado:

Hugo: Can the Jays pitching survive the loss of Burnett and Marcum and continue to be one of the top pitching staffs in the league?

Rincewind: Yeah they can, some things do have to break right for them but it can happen. Doc will be Doc. Litsch started last season 8-1 then hit a bad stretch in June and July but finished strong going 5-1 with a 2.29 ERA in August and September and he was pitching deeper into game late in the season. He will be 24 this year, his third season in the majors, I’m expecting good things again. David Purcey wasn’t great last year but if you subtract his spot starts his ERA 4.84 as a regular in our rotation. In August and September he was striking out a batter an inning, I can see him having a 4.50 or better ERA this year. Not great but less than half a run worse than AJ was last year.

Hugo: Yeah, Litsch hasn't done anything but pitch two quality seasons in the majors. Lots of people still doubt but I thought he showed real improvement in his second season, striking out a batter an inning more and walking a batter an inning less than 2007 while continuing to get grounders and limit the long ball. He seems durable as well. I'm not expecting him to dominate but I think he will continue to hold his own. Not ideal for a number two starter, but he should give the Jays a decent chance to win more often than not. As for Purcey, it sounds like making excuses when we want to throw out his early spot starts and also mention that he was gassed at the end of the season, but that doesn't mean it's not true. His numbers from 2008 alone suggest that he should have been more effective than he was, and that's assuming he won't improve at all in 2009, which I think he will. I'm hoping it's not too much to expect him to be about league average this season.

Rincewind: That leaves two spots in the rotation. I am very hopeful that McGowan will return in May. He didn’t have a great ERA last year, 4.37, but he did pitch hurt some. He is only 27 this coming season; I think an ERA of close to 4.00 isn’t being too optimistic.

Hugo: I like McGowan long-term but of course it remains to be seen what he'll be able to contribute this season. I'm hopeful he'll be back and pitching effectively by about June. I could see him doing more for us this season than he was able to do last season. He's such an important piece of the Jays' long-term puzzle that the most important thing is that his shoulder is healthy.

Rincewind: We do need a starter or two out of Janssen, Clement, Richmond, Ricky Romero, Cecil, you (hope you are working on a knuckleball) or me to come thru. Now, I’m big fan of Janssen’s and I know he might not be as good as I’m hoping but I could really see him make 30 starts and have an ERA of 4 or under.

I could also imagine Ricky Romero having a good spring and earning the number 4 or 5 spot in the rotation. He finished last season very strong in the minors and the team might not want to have him wreck his confidence by pitching in the Pacific Coast League. Having had a PCL team in Calgary until recently, I’ve seen what the little tiny ballparks can do to a pitcher.

Richmond didn’t pitch badly last year, a 4.00 ERA in 5 starts is nothing to sneeze at and he did have some bad luck. I wouldn’t be uncomfortable going into the season with him as our 5th starter. Matt Clement was good from 1999-2005, perhaps if he has recovered from arm troubles.....well he isn’t the longest of long shots. Cecil, I’d very much prefer to have him pitch in the minors this year and stretch out the number of innings he can go, rather than leave his young arm at the not so tender mercies of Cito.

Hugo: I do throw a mean batting practice fastball. According to JP, who has always seen Janssen as a starter long-term (and I agree with that), if he's healthy, Casey will have a starting job coming out of the spring. He had a serious surgery but he's young and all indications are that he's healthy. We will just have to see whether that translates into the same effectiveness he had pre-surgery. I've always liked Janssen, he has quality pitches and awfully good control and gets grounders. One thing to think about is that his fastball looked like it had a little more on it in 2007 than we saw in 2006 or was reported. I remember Casey mentioned in an interview that he enjoyed pitcing out of the bullpen because he could pace himself a little less and it gave his fastball a little extra zip. I was a little surprised that the Jays were so eager to toss Janssen back into the fire right off the bat, but their rotation is pretty thin. If Janssen is truly healthy, I think he's more than capable of a better than league average season of starts. But that's a big if.

As for the others, looks like it will be a battle, assuming everyone else is healthy, to see who gets to start until McGowan is ready to return between Romero, Richmond, Maroth, Bullington, Mills and, according to JP, Brett Cecil. I have to admit I was really surprised to hear that. I figured the Jays would ease Cecil into starting and I've always been a fan of the Earl Weaver method of breaking young pitchers into the rotation through the major-league bullpen. The other thing with Cecil is that he didn't even throw 120 innings last season (just under) so one would think he would top out at 150 or so this season. If the Jays watch his innings though, he could probably be an effective 5-6 inning pitcher right out of the gate, though that wouldn't be my preference for him.

My guess is that the Jays are hoping that one of the others shows enough to win the job, and probably only Romero and Richmond have real shots. Maroth seems like AAA insurance to me if all else fails, while Bullington is more of a reclamation project and Mills only has a handful of AA starts. Romero is tough to figure, he was pretty bad at AA but then put together a very nice string of 7 starts in AAA to end the season and sort of rehabilitate his prospect status. The Jays, and JP in particular, would really like him to take a step forward this season, but he's still just 24 so he doesn't need to be rushed. I'm not too high on Romero, at least for this season. His walk rate was still too high, even in his run at Syracuse he was walking almost 4.5 per 9 innings. When his K rate takes the usual dive for a pitcher in the majors for the first time, he could be in big trouble. I know the Jays don't have a ton of other options, and I think if Romero is healthy he could progress fast, but I think he needs a little more work in the minors first. As for Richmond, it's hard to say because he has such a thin minor-league track record. He certainly didn't light it up in the minors in 2008 overall, but he held his own after his promotion to Toronto. It's hard to conclude that he's ready to be a back-end starter on just the 5 starts with the big club, but I think he could probably hold down the fort until McGowan returns. Davis Romero didn't have a bad season at Syracuse either as a starter last year, though I've always seen him more as a lefty specialist long term (he had almost a 6/1 K/BB ratio against lefties last season and struck out about a batter per inning against them).

Oh, I should at least mention Clement, so far the Jays' marquis offseason acquisition. I don't know what to expect from him, other than I will have to see him in Spring Training before I would even consider him as a realistic candidate for the job. That said, much longer-shot comebacks have happened, so I'll be rooting for him.

This year, I don't think it matters that much who breaks camp with the rotation, as I think all of the above are likely to get their chance at some point. There's so much uncertainty with the rotation, and that's without the normal amount of flux that a rotation undergoes.

Rincewind: Our bullpen was amazing last year and looks to be even deeper this year. I think we could be alright...with one major BUT. I am not a fan of how Cito managers his pitching staff. I’m hoping he learns to take it easy on some of those young arms but I’m not expecting it to happen. If I was GM I’d say that pitching coach Brad Arnsberg was to run the pitching staff, he seems to have a clearer idea of how to handle pitchers. Cito.....Cito can’t read the signs of a pitcher tiring and when a pitcher keeps throwing after he is tired, that’s when injuries happen. And, of course, that’s when losses happen too.

Hugo: The bullpen could come up big this year, I agree. We have so many quality options in Ryan, Downs, League, Carlson, Accardo, Wolfe, Frasor, Tallet, Davis Romero and lots of others too. If the starters can hold their own, we should have one heck of a pen and that will help. And there's enough depth that even though they will likely be pitching a lot of innings, they shouldn't get tired "but." The but is exactly as you describe it - a deep bullpen is a lot more valuable if it's used correctly. There's no need to send Scott Downs into 4-run games when he's already pitched the previous two days, and that's the sort of thing we saw a lot of last season. I also agree that Cito will have to keep an eye on our young starters. And we would be remiss if we didn't discuss Doc a little. He's so good, and so reliable, that it's easy to focus on the problem areas. But having someone like Halladay will go a long way for the Jays. He's substantially better than even the average ace in the league, so if the other 4 are about average or close to it, between Doc and the bullpen my guess is that our staff's numbers overall will look just fine.

Here are our past Dangling Conversation installments:

Part 1: Good and Bad of 2008
Part 2: Jays Priorities for the Offseason
Part 3: Should the Jays Rebuild?
Part 4: Who Should Lead Off For the Jays?
Part 5: How Should the Jays Fill Out Their Rotation
Part 6: Can the Jays Complete with Barajas catching and Scutaro at Short?
Part 7: Should the Jays Trade From Their Bullpen?
Part 8: What Should Be Done About the DH Spot?
Part 9: What Should Snider's Role Be?
Part 10: What Can We Expect From Adam Lind This Season?
Part 11: What Jays Farmhands Will Make an Impact This Seasons?
Part 12: How Will the Jays' Offense Produce in 2008?

Couplets Out of Rhyme, In Syncopated Time: The Dangling Conversation Part VII

Tom Dakers — Tue, 02 Dec 2008 16:48:51 -0000

Rincewind: With the Jays' bullpen seemingly a strength, should the Jays look to trade from that strength in order to fill other holes?

Hugo: Definitely, if they can. If no one is traded and everyone returns from injury as expected, the Jays have BJ Ryan, Brandon League, Scott Downs, Casey Janssen, Jesse Carlson, Brian Wolfe, Jeremy Accardo and, if they want them, Brian Tallet, Shawn Camp, and Jason Frasor for bullpen jobs. Scott Richmond, Davis Romero, Brian Bullington, and others could easily step into bullpen roles as well. Even if Janssen is shifted to the rotation, that's too many quality arms in the bullpen. I say too many because it is inevitable in that situation that you will have excellent relievers pitching low-leverage innings and that is a waste of talent because it doesn't contribute substantially to whether the team wins or loses.

I do like the idea of keeping the bullpen deep because the Jays have rotation questions, so I'd focus on moving the most valuable pieces and seeing whether they could net an everyday player. If the Brewers would like to trade J.J. Hardy for B.J. Ryan and a pitching prospect, we should make that deal. If the Padres will let Khalil Greene go for Jason Frasor, it's a no brainer. If the Royals have soured on Billy Butler and are willing to give him up for a pitching prospect and a major-league reliever, let's do it. If the Rangers are looking to clear Hank Blalock's salary so they can afford a pitcher, we can give them a quality bullpen arm and take on Blalock's salary. I'm not suggesting these deals are reasonable, but they might be starting points. Relievers don't necessarily get much on the open market, but J.P. Ricciardi can be a keen evaluator of talent and so it's worth taking a look at what's out there.

Rincewind: I'd like the Jays to hang on to Downs, because he is so versatile, and League, because I see him as a future closer. I'd also like them to keep Carlson because he is a favourite of mine, but I know that's an irrational reason to keep a player. Beyond those I think if they can make a trade that would fill one of the holes I'm all for it. The trouble I see right now is that there is too many closers available on the free agent market. The Jays may have to wait to see how that shakes out before they can trade Ryan. Why would you give up something useful for Ryan and his $10 million a year contract if there are closers you could sign for the same money, without giving up a player.

Though shedding contracts might be that reason. I'm sure the Rangers would like to be without Blalock's contract and if they can get a quality arm at the same time, that might work. Same with the Padres and Greene, they suddenly don't have a closer, and they have a shortstop they don't want to pay. And I don't see them wanting to pay for a free agent closer. Maybe they could be sold on Accardo or Frasor as the closer. Apparently Hardy is a spare part for the Brewers, though I have a hard time understanding how a team couldn't find a spot for a player like that. Ryan would be a huge upgrade for them at closer. I do worry that JP won't be able to pull the trigger on a big trade.

Hugo: I agree, the market for closers just doesn't seem to be great right now. I wonder if that will change as the offseason progresses. If we could get a solid everyday player for some of our bullpen arms, I really think that would be a coup for JP. We just won't have enough high leverage innings for all of them, especially if we don't get help for the rotation and offense.

Part 1: Good and Bad of 2008
Part 2: Jays Priorities for the Offseason
Part 3: Should the Jays Rebuild?
PArt 4: Who Should Lead Off For the Jays?
Part 5: How Should the Jays Fill Out Their Rotation
Part 6: Can the Jays Complete with Barajas catching and Scutaro at Short?