SB Nation - Adam Jones

Bird Droppings: Gold Glove Fallout, Davey Johnson goes to the Nats, and ZAUN.

Camden Chat — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 12:00:40 -0000

Your Off-Season O of the Day: Larry Sheets

If I Were a Rich Man: On the Baltimore Orioles
FanGraphs' Carson Cistulli takes a look at the O's talent and low payroll and likes what he sees (just don't get your panties in a bunch when he mentions Luke being good at defense). -Stacey

Adam Jones speaks about his Gold Glove
Regardless of what you think of the award, it's always nice to read what Adam has to say. When asked about his sprained ankle he says, "I can do the James Brown, so everything feels good." -Stacey

ZAUN on the Market
Believe it or not, Gregg Zaun is the best FA option at catcher this year. I guess it's a good thing we have that covered. -Stacey

Davey Johnson hired by the Nationals
No, not as their manager. As a senior advisor to GM Mike Rizzo. The manager options have been narrowed down to Jim Riggleman and Bobby Valentine. -Stacey

Gold Gloves vs. UZR
Beyond The Boxscore examines the AL Gold Gloves in comparison to defensive stats. The biggest gaffes were with Torii Hunter and Derek Jeter, and by the stats Cesar Izturis should have taken home the hardware at SS. -Stacey

Bedard could be a bargain pick up for the Red Sox
NESN.com suggests Bedard as an option for the Red Sox in 2010. I don't think I'd like that. -Stacey

More Gold Gloves, more head-scratching
Rob Neyer joins the Gold Glove criticism parade. -Stacey

Yankees plotting to keep Damon, Pettitte, Matsui
Of course they are. -Stacey

Bay and Holliday too rich for Mets' blood
The Mets figure on getting priced out of the top to outfield FAs. That happens when the Yankees are in the running. -Stacey

I have two books at my bedside, Lieutenant: the Marine Corps Code of Conduct and the King James Bible. The only proper authorities I am aware of are my commanding officer, Colonel Nathan R. Jessep, and the Open Thread.

Gold Gloves vs. UZR: The Laziest Article I've Ever Written (AL Edition)

SFiercex4 — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 01:20:29 -0000

More photos » by Ted S. Warren - AP

During a pitching change in the sixth inning against the San Diego Padres in a baseball game Tuesday, June 23, 2009, center fielder Franklin Gutierrez (center) ponders aloud "You think I'll get a Gold Glove this year?" Left fielder Wladimir Balentien assures him while right fielder Ichiro Suzuki (kneeling right) snickers. "Gold Gloves?" he thinks as he stares off into the diamond. "I have a million of those." (AP Photo/Ted S. Warren)

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So, today we got to see the American League Gold Glove awards as voted on by coaches and managers. The following is the list of players who won for the American League

Player	Team	Position
Mark Buehrle	CHA	P
Joe Mauer	MIN	C
Mark Teixeira	NYA	1B
Placido Polanco	DET	2B
Evan Longoria	TBR	3B
Derek Jeter	NYA	SS
Adam Jones	BAL	OF
Torii Hunter	LAA	OF
Ichiro Suzuki	SEA	OF

If you are reading this site, I do not think you need to be told that the Gold Glove awards reward players for their name, good looks, reputation, lack of errors, and degree of difficulty, whether real or fabricated by a player's skill. What it does not generally reward is actual defense, though that occasionally gets thrown into the mix as well.

In what will undoubtedly appear as a lazy article (after all, it's so easy to pick on these things, why even bother?), I am going to pit the Gold Glove awards with UZR to see how much agreement there may be. Of course, so as to not raise the ire of one MGL, I will not be quoting single-season UZR totals. Rather, I'll do something simple: a 3-year pseudo-Marcels projection of defensive worth based on both UZR and the Fans Scouting Report. I'll take the single-season UZR leader (yes, I know, but this allows me to not have to do too many projections) and the 2009 GG winner and run a weighted Marcels, weighting UZR at 75% and the Fans at 25%. I'll then regress each total by 75 games of average defense for infielders and 100 games of average for outfielders.

For outfielders, I'll look at the players with the best UZR + positional adjustments, so as to account for the fact that you can pick any three outfielders. For catchers, I'll use the defensive estimates done by devil_fingers in this post, and TotalZone data available at B-Ref courtesy of Sean Smith. Catcher defense is regressed 125 games; I do not have a basis for this, but I figured it should be regressed the most because we know the least about it. I won't be looking at the pitchers, though it is worth mentioning that Buerhle also won the Fielding Bible Award for pitchers this season, so that probably goes down as an agreement. Finally, because the 2009 FSR is still in the voting format, 2009 data will only include UZR. Sorry.

Let's find out how the voters did against the numbers (why do we always have to fight?).

First off, here are the players the Gold Glove voters selected.

Player	Position	Defense
Joe Mauer	C	+7
Mark Teixiera	1B	+2
Placido Polanco	2B	+9
Evan Longoria	3B	+15
Derek Jeter	SS	+0
Adam Jones	OF	+2
Torii Hunter	OF	-2
Ichiro Suzuki	OF	+9

As you can see, the list is not all that bad. Among the players listed here, the Fans Scouting Report agreed a whole lot more than UZR did with the GG voters. Teixeira has come out as around the second best first baseman in baseball over the last few years, behind only Albert Pujols, but UZR has had him with two seasons of below average play and one very strong 2008 campaign; overall, he ended up at around +2 runs. Torii Hunter ends up as the only player in the negative side; here the Fans and UZR disagree heavily, with UZR rating Hunter as solidly below average while the Fans have still have him as one of the best center fielders in the game.

I was rather surprised to see Derek Jeter rate as an even shortstop under this methodology. The Fans have him as slightly above average (+2 and +1 runs in 2007 and 2008 respectively), while UZR has him over the three-year span as a -4 run defender per 150 games. it is worth noting that in the 2009 FSR, Jeter ranks in the middle of the pack as well at shortstop, around the likes of Juan Castro, Tyler Greene, and Miguel Tejada.

Ichiro was an interesting case as well. Each of the three years, UZR rated him well, even with his move to center field in 2007. The Fans, however, were off the charts in favor of Ichiro, labeling him likely the best defender in baseball. The Fans had Ichiro at +27 and +22 runs in 2007 and 2008 respectively. Taking the conglomerate, Ichiro ended up at +9 runs, still the second best total listed here.

There were still places where UZR, the Fans, and even the GG voters agreed. Everyone came to terms on how ridiculous Evan Longoria is at third base, and no one should be surprised there. Similarly, Placido Polanco received reviews from the Fans that were very similar to his UZR numbers, at least in 2008. And Adam Jones received high marks in '08, in concordance with his solid UZR. Jones however was hurt in that his second season in 2009 weighed in more than half of his rating and he happened to receive poor marks from UZR; the Fans still rank him very highly among center fielders, and his numbers would have looked better had I used this season's FSR data.

The Numbers Tally

In comparison, let's take a look at the leaders in terms of UZR or catcher defense this season. Note that in the case of third base, Longoria was the UZR leader and the award recipient, so I went to the second-ranked player for the comparison. Also, in the case of second base, the leader was Ben Zobrist, but I felt with such little data at our disposal in terms of his second base play, his skewed 2009 UZR would have a significant hold on his projection, so I went with the next available player, Dustin Pedroia. Finally, I added four outfielders, three of them center fielders, for comparison. Only one corner outfielder, Carl Crawford, would have approached the amount needed when combining both UZR and positional adjustment.

Player	Team	Position	Defense
Gerald Laird	DET	C	+7
Kevin Youkilis	BOS	1B	+3
Dustin Pedroia	BOS	2B	+8
Chone Figgins	LAA	3B	+9
Cesar Izturis	BAL	SS	+7
Franklin Gutierrez	SEA	OF	+21
B.J. Upton	TBR	OF	+8
Rajai Davis	OAK	OF	+7
Carl Crawford	TBR	OF	+10

As mentioned, the GG voters nabbed two of the UZR leaders (at third base and at second base, if you don't count Zobrist). It would appear as if they did a very good job in that department, as this methodology shows Longoria as absolutely dominant defensively and Polanco a very defensible choice given the difference between him and Pedroia. Mauer and "One Man, Five Tools" Laird came out fairly even in the projection, so there should be no quibble in handing the award to the future AL MVP. Likewise, the Youkilis vs. Teixeira debate came fairly even, so deeming Teixeira the winner is certainly a decent choice.

The shortstop position was a very interesting find. I was quite surprised to see that Cesar Izturis came out on top this season, though he carries a very good reputation. I was also quite happy to see strong agreement between the Fans and UZR on Izturis' year-to-year performances. Overall, he would have been a solid choice. I recognize also that I left Elvis Andrus out of the picture for similar reasons to the Zobrist argument. He did end ever-so-slightly behind Izturis on the leaderboard, so I do have that to back me up. With the type of regression Andrus probably would have received for not having played a whole lot, I imagine Izturis would still have come out on top.

It is perhaps in the outfield where the voters missed the mark. Two of the three winners of the Fielding Bible awards, center fielder Franklin Gutierrez and left fielder Carl Crawford, came up missing in the final awards, while a player that, according to this projection, actually hurt the team's defense when compared to the average was awarded (another) Gold Glove. The decision to take Hunter in this case seems very poor when in comparison to the options available. Gutierrez's exclusion was expected but still heinous in light of how good he was this year and how good he has been the past three seasons.

Any of the above choices, between Crawford, Upton, Davis, and Gutierrez, would have been much better than Hunter in this case. Replacing either Jones or Ichiro would be more questionable, and admittedly I did not factor in positional adjustments into these, so Ichiro's numbers as a center fielder and right fielder are counting the same, as are Gutierrez's.

Conclusion

The voters actually did a decent job overall, minus the one giant oversight of Gutierrez and the awarding of yet another Gold Glove that Derek Jeter likely did not earn. Compared to recent results over the last few years though, this year's ballot was a nice change of pace, even though it included a lot of the "old guard" in terms of defense. I hope that in a few years, we can expect to see less of Jeter and Hunter and more of Gutierrez, Andrus, and Crawford on these ballots, reflecting a changing of the guard in defense, a changing of the system and how it is run, or maybe even a more open view on defensive metrics, at least in the context of rewarding good defense.

Expect the National League version tomorrow, or later still, depending on how infuriating it looks. I'm a pessimist.

Adam Jones Wins the Gold Glove: First for the O's since '99

Stacey — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 20:58:21 -0000

More photos » by Gail Burton - AP

This is Jones' first GG, and the first for an Oriole since Mike Mussina won in 1999. The Orioles haven't had a GG in the outfield since Paul Blair in 1975. (AP Photo/Gail Burton)

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Congratulations to Adam Jones. It's very exciting to have a Baltimore Oriole recognized for anything positive, especially when the accolades are so few and far between these days. Adam is an exciting young player and I couldn't be happier to have him on my team. According to the Bill James Handbook and Fielding Bible, he had the highest range factor of any center fielder and led in home run saving catches and outfield arm saved runs. Adam Jones is a very good defensive baseball player and I believe he'll only improve. Here are some of his great plays from 2009:

August 29th: Two great catches against the Indians

August 18th: Hauling in Reid Brignac's drive

August 16th: Stealing a Grand Slam from Mike Napoli

July 31st: Throwing out Big Papi

July 29th: Helping out Chris Tillman

July 12th: Robbing Alex Rios

June 29th: Robbing Youk while Gary Thorne makes a fool of himself

May 19th: Not so fast, Robinson Cano

May 7th: Diving catch against Justin Morneau

May 3rd: Blowin' bubbles, making leaping catches, it's what he does

April 28th: Take a seat, Chone

He's amazing, right?

However.

There is a reason the Gold Gloves are considered a joke by a lot of people. Anyone who pays attention to baseball knows that the best outfielder this year was actually Adam Jones' replacement in Seattle, Franklin Gutierrez. He was the best and it wasn't even close. Additionally, Carl Crawford has been one of the best defensive outfielders for years but he's never won a Gold Glove. That guy playing next to Crawford in Tampa Bay, B.J. Upton, is also deserving.

Torii Hunter and Ichiro Suzuki have had the two-thirds of the OF Gold Gloves locked down for years. If Adam had won instead of Hunter I'd feel a lot better about the award. If Crawford or Gutierrez had won instead of Hunter or Ichiro, I'd feel a lot better about Adam Jones winning.

I really hate that I can't feel awesome about this. But I can't. I love Adam Jones and there is no doubt in my mind that one year, probably in the near future, he will play centerfield at such a level that he deserves the GG. But this year isn't it.

Here is your complete list of American League Gold Glove Winners.

C	Joe Mauer
1B	Mark Teixeira
2B	Placido Polanco
3B	Evan Longoria
SS	Derek Jeter
OF	Torii Hunter
OF	Adam Jones
OF	Ichiro Suzuki
P	Mark Buehrle

TBLA Final Vote for the 15th best Prospect in the Dodger Organization

Phil Gurnee — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 20:35:47 -0000

1	Chat and Vote	Chris Withrow
2	Chat and Vote	Dee Gordon
3	Chat and Vote	Scott Elbert
4	Chat and Vote	Ivan DeJesus
5	Chat and Vote	Ethan Martin
6	Chat and Vote	Andrew Lambo
7		Aaron Miller
8	Chat and Vote	Josh Lindlbom
9	Chat and vote	Trayvon Robinson
10	Chat and vote	Nathan Eovaldi
11		Xavier Paul
12	Chat and vote	Garrett Gould
13A		Allen Webster
13B		Kyle Russell
15

Dead heat after two votes so they both get to call themselves the TBLA 13th best prospect. Final vote is now up for the 15th TBLA best Dodger prospect. I don't know how the rest of you vote but I do it on what the ceiling is and if I expect them to reach the ceiling. So for me Lucas May will be no more then a backup catcher, while Jonathan Garcia could be Adam Jones (a comparable for his age in the Arizona League) offensively or just another fast starting kid who is swallowed up by advanced pitching.

Poll

TBLA 15th Top Dodger Prospect

Lucas May

36 votes

Jonathan Garcia

49 votes

Scott Van Slyke

30 votes

Gerald Sands

10 votes

Jon Michael Redding

7 votes

Tony Delmonico

36 votes

168 votes | Poll has closed

A Preliminary Look at the 2010 AL East Offenses - Part 3

Stacey — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 22:33:41 -0000

More photos » by Rob Carr - AP

Bring it. (AP Photo/Rob Carr)

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The final look at Bill James' projections will focus on the Orioles young outfield. In Part 1 I drooled over Matt Wieters, in Part 2 I went into fantasyland, and here in Part 3 I will bask in the talent of the Orioles outfield.

It's hardly news to anyone here that the Orioles outfield is one of the most promising in baseball. All four outfielders will be 26 or younger on Opening Day 2010, all have shown a lot of promise, and one has already established himself as one of the most solid outfielders in the MLB. There will surely be discussions here about what exactly to do with the outfielders given that over the course of 2009 four of them showed they are capable of being starters. Should Nolan DH with Pie in LF? Would the outfield be better with Pie in CF and Jones in LF? Is Pie too good to be a 4th OF? Should he be traded for something the Orioles need more? These are the best kinds of questions to have because they all revolve around the actual talent of the players. It's a far cry from the O's outfields of recent past (Players to man the outfield for the Orioles from 2005-2008: Jeff Fiorentino, Eli Marrero, Eric Byrnes, 40 year old B.J. Surhoff, Jay Payton, Corey Patterson, Jay Gibbons, Tike Redman, 40 year old Jeff Conine, Luis Matos, David Newhan, Sammy Sosa, Larry Bigbie, Brandon Fahey, Luis Terrero, Freddie Bynum, Lou Montanez, Luke Scott, Adam Jones, Nick Markakis).

I'm going to operate under the assumption that the Orioles outfield will be, from left to right: Nolan Reimold, Adam Jones, and Nick Markakis, with Felix Pie being the 4th outfielder who hopefully gets a good chunk of playing time. It's also safe to assume that at least one of the starters will have some injury problems (*cough* Adam Jones) and it would be nice to have someone competent to fill in.

Right Field

Nick Markakis' 2009 was something of a disappointment. After watching his batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage increase each of his first three years in the majors, they all took a step back in 2009. His walks were nearly cut in half from 2008 to 2009 which resulted in about a 50 point drop in OBP. It was disheartening to watch, but I'm not worried about Nick. I'm sure he'll be just fine. Of course, if it happens again in 2010 I will probably have a melt down.

Nick Markakis	G	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
James '09 projections	159	598	185	46	22	104	99	83	99	.309	.396	.503	.899
Markakis '09 stats	161	642	188	45	18	94	101	56	98	.293	.347	.453	.801
James '10 projections	161	630	189	47	21	101	103	72	103	.300	.374	.481	.855

Really, if you think about it, Nick's plate discipline was the only real thing that took a hit in 2009. Will that stick in the future? I don't think so. Whatever was happening with him I have the confidence that he'll be able to get it together. zknower hypothesized that the trade of Aubrey Huff took a toll on Nick, and FanGraphs pointed out that he started swinging more at pitches outside the strike zone and less at pitches inside the strike zone. FanGraphs also talks about his defensive dip, but I won't bother with that as one year of defensive data is hardly incriminating. I think in 2010 those numbers will go back up, he'll hit 40-45 doubles and 20ish home runs, and he'll take a few more walks. James has his OBP projected to .374, obviously affected by his 2009 season. That's not the .400 I hope to see from Nick, but it would have been tops on the team this year.

James '10 Projections	G	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Nick Swisher	150	507	125	32	26	85	80	90	131	.247	.365	.467	.833
J.D. Drew	142	498	134	30	22	90	76	91	119	.269	.385	.474	.859
Matt Joyce	120	375	97	27	17	59	60	49	92	.259	.346	.483	.829
Jose Bautista	121	369	89	21	13	51	48	48	90	.241	.335	.409	.744

Man. Look, I know the Orioles suck. They lost 98 games, they have a bunch of question marks, they're not in any place to point fingers. But wow, do the Blue Jays have a lousy lineup. It wasn't that long ago that the Blue Jays outfield looked pretty sweet with Alex Rios manning right and Vernon Wells in center. They signed them both to extensions (Wells' was ridiculous from the get-go, but Rios' didn't seem too bad) and then they both started to stink. They're stuck with Wells; no one is going to take him when he makes $20M a year. They gave Rios to the White Sox for nothing but payroll relief and he played even worse there. So now it looks like their option in RF is Jose Bautista. He played LF for most of the year but after Rios left he moved to RF to make room for prospect Travis Snider. I took a glance at John Sickels' Pre-2009 prospect list and there doesn't appear to be anyone waiting in the wings, so barring a FA signing or trade, it's Jose Bautista.

Matt Joyce played just a handful of games at the big league level in 2009 but he seems to be the heir apparent to RF in Tampa Bay. Joyce, you might remember, was traded to the Rays by the Tigers in exchange for Edwin Jackson. Joyce has had two successful seasons in AAA so it seems there's nowhere left to go for him but up. The Rays re-signed Gabe Kapler to a 1 year deal so I'd imagine he'll get a chunk of time in RF as well.

J.D. Drew played 137 games in 2009. I predict he will play anywhere from 75-150 games next year. Dude tends to get hurt, but he's a great player. I would be very happy if Nick Markakis grew up to be a J.D. Drew clone who plays at least 155 games every year. A lot of people think Nick Swisher is a tool, but he can play. He makes up for his low-ish batting average with a ton of walks. I would be very happy if Nick Markakis grew up to be Nick Swisher plus 50 points on BA.

Verdict: I'll take Nicky every time. He's the youngest of any of them besides Joyce, he's always healthy, and he'll throw your ass out at second if you try to run.

Center Field

Oh Adam Jones. You're the center fielder of my dreams. You've made me forget all about the center fielders I adored as a young girl. Brady who? Devo what? You hit home runs, you leap over walls, you blow bubbles. You're just plain cool. And you're only 24! Thanks for coming into my life.

Adam Jones	G	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
James '09 projections	150	480	134	24	15	71	65	30	108	.279	.326	.444	.770
Jones '09 stats	119	473	131	22	19	83	70	36	93	.277	.335	.457	.792
James '10 projections	154	571	162	29	22	95	83	40	115	.284	.336	.468	.804

Adam Jones is the yin to Nick Markakis' yang. In the perfect scenario, Nick is the well rounded hitter who gets on base a lot and has some pop but isn't going to mash. Adam Jones is always going to strike out some, probably won't take that many walks (although I would like to see him improve), but he'll hit you some home runs. I think 22 is a conservative estimate for Adam. He came out of the gate in 2009 absolutely crushing the ball. Then he had a few injuries and started to slump a little and couldn't quite get HR #20. He hit #19 on August 5th but then only played 20 more slumpy games before being shut down with an ankle sprain. I don't know that he'll do it in 2010, but if Adam can even himself out some and stay healthy, he'll hit 30 home runs.

James '10 predictions	G	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Brett Gardner	104	325	90	11	3	63	28	45	58	.277	.368	.368	.744
Jacoby Ellsbury	157	635	192	32	9	106	62	52	73	.302	.360	.420	.780
B.J. Upton	142	507	135	30	13	59	75	67	136	.266	.354	.414	.768
Vernon Wells	144	549	149	33	19	77	77	43	75	.271	.327	.443	.769

Life is good in center field. Well, unless you're Vernon Wells. Not only is Vernon Wells 5 years older than the next oldest CF (Ellsbury), he's not all that good defensively, he can't hit, and he plays in Canada.

B.J. Upton is a mystery. While his defense is top notch, his hitting in 2009 was just atrocious. After putting up monster stats in 2007, his numbers dropped in 2008 and were anemic in 2009 as he hit .241/.313/.373. He's been touted as one of the best young talents in baseball for a number of years, but the future is cloudy for him. I honestly have no idea what to expect. Bill James projects him to be better than in '09 but worse than he was in 2008. He'll be just 25 years old on Opening Day with 513 big league games under his belt so he's already ahead of the curve. I think he has plenty of time to get it together.

Jacoby Ellsbury just finished his second full big league season and is a good guy to have on your team. In 331 career games he's stolen 129 bases with a nearly 85% success rate. He doesn't have power but he gets on base a lot and steals pretty much all the time. He hasn't posted an OPS+ over 100 in either of his two full seasons, but if he can learn to take a few more walks he could be a force at the top of their lineup. His BB% in 2009 was just 7.3%, easily worst among AL East leadoff batters. Roberts, Jeter, and Scutaro all had BB% over 10% and B.J. Upton was at 9.2%.

It might be Brett Gardner for the Yankees next year, it might be Melky Cabrera. Gardner looked like he'd get a lot of playing time in 2009 but kept getting injured. Neither of them can really hit, but Gardner runs circles around Cabrera defensively.

Verdict: Dr. Jones is the best CF in the AL East.

Left Field

While there was no doubt who would play right field and center field in 2009, left field wasn't as settled. Luke Scott wanted to play there but got sent to DH, Felix Pie was supposed to get a shot but got pulled after a few weeks, and Lou Montanez somehow got in there a bit as well. All the while Nolan Reimold just chilled at AAA Norfolk, hitting .394/.485/.743 with 18 BB, 9 HR and 11 2B in 31 games before injuries to Adam Jones, Luke Scott, and Lou Montanez forced the Orioles to call him up. Once they did Nolan didn't give them a chance to even act like they would send him back down and left field was his for the rest of the year. He was truly one of the brightest spots of 2009. Nolan hadn't spent any time above AA before 2009 so Bill James didn't do any projections for him.

Nolan Reimold	G	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Reimold '09 stats	104	358	100	18	15	49	45	47	77	.279	.365	.466	.831
James '10 projection	152	538	157	34	29	84	105	68	102	.292	.373	.524	.898

Remember I said before that Bill James tends to be pretty optimistic about young guys without much historic data? I'll try to keep that in mind, but when I first read those numbers I may have clapped my hands like I was Felix Pie beating out a throw to third. I mean, if Nolan Reimold can hit like that? If he can hit 29 HR in his second big league season? I won't even know what to do with myself.

James '10 Projections	G	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Matt Holliday	155	605	191	43	27	105	109	66	112	.316	.391	.531	.922
Jason Bay	153	560	150	32	32	99	103	88	159	.268	.374	.504	.878
Carl Crawford	140	528	156	24	12	82	62	36	84	.295	.346	.439	.786
Travis Snider	141	527	145	35	26	82	90	65	159	.275	.357	.493	.850

Yes, I made Matt Holliday a Yankee. I mean, it's inevitable, isn't it? Or maybe the Red Sox will sign him and the Yankees will settle for Jason Bay. Either way, the chart works. And can I say, left field is stacked. No offense to Adam Jones or Felix Pie, but this right here is why you don't move Reimold to DH and put one of them at LF. If Reimold can possibly put up numbers like the ones Bill James projects, that means he can play with the big boys. Yes, his defense is sometimes questioned, but it's left field. He'll be ok.

Verdict: Try not to get your hopes up too much, try not to get your hopes up too much, try not to get your hopes up too much.

And Felix

I can't leave him out, can I? Felix went from curiosity to object of disdain to most likable Oriole over the course of the season. This kid is awesome.

Felix Pie	G	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
James '09 projections	143	498	138	26	12	70	59	33	94	.277	.320	.407	.727
Pie '09 stats	101	252	67	10	9	38	29	24	58	.266	.326	.437	.763
James '10 projections	143	345	94	18	11	53	42	27	71	.272	.325	.443	.769

James predicts that Felix will be a little better than he was in 2009. I don't know if that's true. I don't know what to believe. I know I like this kid way more than I probably should, and once I get an emotional attachment it's hard for me to be rational (see Scott, Luke). But those of us who watched Felix Pie in 2009 know that he's was like two different baseball players. If you divide his games right down the middle (so it doesn't look like I'm cherry picking), here is what you get:

First Half: 50 G, 114 PA, 3 2B, 2 HR, 10 BB, 25 K, .235/.304/.363
Second Half: 51 G, 167 PA, 7 2B, 7 HR, 14 BB, 33 K, .287/.341/.487

I know, I know. That's not enough to tell what he'll be in 2010. I agree. But his improvement was so remarkable. We saw it with our own eyes . Who knows what will happen to him, but if he can hit like that over a whole season then he can't sit on the bench. He can't. If he can hit like that over a whole season, you have to find a place he can play every day, even if it's (sniff) on another team.

I love our outfield. Here's a quick side-by-side of the OFs in the O's Division.

Orioles	Blue Jays	Rays	Red Sox	Yankees
Nick Markakis	Jose Bautista	Matt Joyce	J.D. Drew	Nick Swisher
Adam Jones	Vernon Wells	B.J. Upton	Jacoby Ellsbury	Brett Gardner
Nolan Reimold	Travis Snider	Carl Crawford	Jason Bay	Matt Holliday

Obviously Holliday is the best player on the board, but taking the outfields as a group? It's close, but I'll take the O's.

Your 2009 Most Birdland Player: It's a Tie!

Stacey — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 17:00:53 -0000

More photos » by Nick Wass - AP

The residents of 2110 Eutaw Street take home the Most Birdland Trophy. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)

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daveh873 came up with the idea. dayzd toe created the awesome spreadsheet. And you guys spent all year voting. Here's your Most Birdland Top Ten:

Nick Markakis - 14
Adam Jones -14
Brian Roberts - 10
Brad Bergesen - 9
Nolan Reimold - 9
Matt Wieters - 8
Jeremy Guthrie - 6
Luke Scott - 5
David Hernandez - 5
Brian Matusz, Koji Uehara, Aubrey Huff - 4

Congrats to Adam and Nicky!

It's worth noting that Bergy won 9 while appearing in just 19 games and Brian Matusz won 4 in just 8 games. A full season for both of those guys and they might have mopped the floor with Nick and Adam despite only appearing in 30 or so games. Let that serve as warning, Adam and Nick, this award will be a lot more competitive in the future

Poll

Officially it's going to remain a tie, but if you had to vote for one of these fine lads to be the undisputed Most Birdland Player for 2009, who would it be?

Dr. Jones

70 votes

Nick the Stick

106 votes

176 votes | Poll has closed

Tuesday Bird Droppings

Camden Chat — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 11:00:29 -0000

Pie In The Face | FanGraphs Baseball

Dave Cameron at FanGraphs thinks Felix Pie would be great trade bait in the off season. I'd rather keep him. -Stacey

HeraldTribune.com: Expert at bat for Orioles' spring training renovation
"With all due respect to Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, Matt Wieters and other rising stars of the Baltimore Orioles, Janet Marie Smith might be the team's most valuable player as the franchise consolidates its Florida operations in Sarasota." - duck

Consumerist: Oriole Park Serves Up Sad Hot Dog, Ignores Pleas For Help
"When we went to Sunday's game, we purchased a Super Dog. The foil wrapper was kind of crumbled, but we thought nothing of it until we opened it up to dress it. It was a very sad hot dog." Oh, there are pictures, people. - duck

TheStar.com: Scutaro could be lost to Jays for season
"(Marco) Scutaro's plantar fasciitis has nagged him since late July, and Saturday he likened the feeling to playing with a rock in his shoe. But he said that afternoon that the foot felt better than it had at any time since the flareups started. "Yesterday was great," said Scutaro, who leads the team with 100 runs. "Now look what happened." Wow, losing a starter late in the season to ensure a collapse? Good thing that never happens to the Orioles. - duck

[Tyler and Narrator are discussing ideal opponents]
Tyler Durden: OK: any historic figure.
Narrator: I'd fight Gandhi.
Tyler Durden: Good answer.
Narrator: How about you?
Tyler Durden: Open Thread.
Narrator: Open Thread?
Tyler Durden: Big guy, big reach. Skinny guys fight 'til they're burger.

Felix Pie's Progress, With a Side of Player X

devil_fingers — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 03:57:19 -0000

More photos » by Gail Burton - AP

TIME FOR PIE (at a baseball game).

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This past January, as part of their seemingly perpetual plan to get better by getting older, the Cubs traded long-touted prospect Felix Pie to the Orioles for a ~~quarter pound of raw beef~~ Garrett Olson and A ball reliever Henry Williamson. Pie, 24 years old to start the 2009 season, had almost always hit well in the minors at levels in which he was among the younger performers. Bur after less than 300 disappointing MLB plate appearances spread over the 2007 and 2008 seasons, the Cubs were "done" with Pie. The Orioles, who have spent the last couple offseasons ripping off clubs with less-than-brilliant GMs, received a guy who had come to be seen as a tool-sy guy who had lost his luster. He was to serve as maybe a defensive LF (where he would be a defensive standout, given his good defensive in CF) or a fourth outfielder for the Orioles, already loaded with young talent with Adam Jones in CF and Nick Markakis in RF. Then the year began, and Pie wasn't hitting. At all. He had some injury problems. Luke Scott started killing the ball, then Nolan Remold came up and did the same.

The last few weeks, Pie has really been smoking the ball. Adam Jones' injury has given him even more playing time. I'm not going to do one of my little "projections" here, but let's take a look at some of the positive factors about Pie this season that make him possibly more than just a high-end stopgap for the Orioles, a team that many (rightly) see as having a very bright near future.

The first thing to note, of course, is that Pie never really got a chance with the Cubs. 300 PAs is nothing, and Pie got less than that spread over two seasons.. Second, again, Pie was only 24 years old at the start of the season. There would seem to be plenty of development time left.

Despite his dreadful career MLB wOBA prior to joining the Cubs, the "big" projection systemss that also took into account his minor league performance all saw him as a .310-.320 wOBA hitter. That's about 5-10 runs below average over a full season. Not good, but when combined with good defense in CF, it leaves open the possibility for a league average player. Thus far this season (in only 230 PAs, to be sure), Pie has exceeded those expectations, with a .335 wOBA. Nut bad for a 25 year-old, really. While 230 PAs isn't much, let's look "behind the scenes" a bit to see if there's anything to the improvement.s

His peripheral hitting stats show some progress so far this season. With the Cubs, his walk rates were between 7% and 8%. This season he's up to 9.7%. He still strikes out a great deal, but his K rate is down to 22% after being over 25% in his time with the Cubs. His BB/K ratio is also up to .49, up from the .33 and .24 he put up in 2007 and 2008 with the Cubs.

This does seem to be a reflection of a more refined approach to the strike zone, as his O-Swing (percentage of pitches swung at outside of the strike zone) is down below 28%, which is an improvement for him from this Chicago seasons. His contact rate is also back up.

Pie is also hitting more line drives and flyballs, and many of those are going out of the park. Although Pie's fast, getting the ball in the air is good. His 2009 BABIP a the time of this writing is .309, and The Hardball times xBABIP calculator returns a .316 for me. Not luck there. HIs HR/FB rate does seem a bit lucky. According to Hit Tracker Online, 3 of Pie's 8 home runs this season have been "just enough," and that's a bit of a lucky rate. Still, he's hitting a decent number of doubles, and power, like patience, is something that usually is still developing for players Pie's age.

As for fielding, Pie has a very limited sample in the OF this season, with less than 500 innings so far. But his UZR/50 is +7.9 so far, which is in line with prior performance. UZR doesn't like him so much in CF this season, but less than 220 innings of defense is like judging a players hitting by 50 PAs. For his career, Pie is +4 in CF, and scouting reports tend to agree that he's a good defender out there.

Again, there are no guarantees here, but looking at age, past performance, and peripherals for this season, Pie definitely looks like a guy who has a very good chance than just a a stopgap starter or 4th OF. Let's compare his with another center fielder, Player X.

Player X is only 6 months younger than Pie. The player is a better hitter than Pie prior to 2009, and this season is still better, but Player X's 2009 wOBA of .343 is only a few runs better than Pie's .335 (and, again, one really should use a projection here -- I'm just looking at perception). Player X has a sterling defensive reputation, but this season has actually been -8.7 runs below average in CF this season. His career UZR/150 in CF is 1.0 as opposed to Pie's 4.3

While Pie's career walk rate, 8.5%, is about average, Player X isn't exactly Rickey Henderson at the plate, with a 5.6% walk rate. Player X's .39 BB/K ratio is also below average and worse than Pie's in 2009, although it is an improvement for Player X. Most shocking, perhaps, for those of us who don't follow the Orioles on a day-to-day basis, player X as a 35.3% O-Swing for his career, while having only about a 75% contract rate.

Who is Player X? Player X is the guy that Pie backs up: Adam Jones.

My point is not to put down Jones. Far from it. Despite some obvious flaws in his strike zone judgment and a down year defensively, Jones is still rightly regarded as a cornerstone of a resurgent Baltimore franchise. My point is that when you look at Pie's numbers in comparison, and realize that despite Pie seemingly having been around forever, that they are about the same age. So (sample size caveats granted), Pie needs to be in the mix for a starting spot next season.

Indeed, maybe Pie needs to be in CF with Jones in left, although either way would mean great OF defense. Reimold (who isn't making anyone forget the young Barry Bonds in left field) could move to DH or first, with Luke Scott taking the other spot (unless they trade him).

Or, hey, maybe the Orioles just want to give up on Pie like the Cubs did. That's fine by me. I know a team that could use a good outfielder or two... couldn't Baltimore use a shortstop who was once more valuable than Billy Butler?

Adam Jones possibly out for the rest of the year

Stacey — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 20:32:17 -0000

More photos » by Rob Carr - AP

Get better soon, Adam! Don't worry, Felix will hold it down until you return. (AP Photo/Rob Carr)

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From Roch Kubtako:

Though the swelling in Adam Jones' left ankle has been reduced, it's still possible that he's played his last game in 2009.

Jones suffered a bad sprain while scrambling back to first base last night. He's projected to miss two-to-three weeks, but it could be longer.

"Jones is going to be out indefinitely," manager Dave Trembley said. "I couldn't tell you when or if he'll come back.

"It's not a pleasant feeling to lose a player the caliber of Jones going down the stretch. There's no one who's made as much improvement from one year to the next as Jones. I think everybody can attest to that. And you lose a guy like that in the middle of your lineup and the middle of your diamond and the middle of your clubhouse, that's a major blow. Major."

Read the rest of the gruesome details on Roch's blog.

Well, this sucks. Adam had been slumping and I really wanted him to have a chance to turn it on for the rest of the year. This effectively makes Pie the everyday CF and Jeff Fiorentino the 4th OF. I guess the bright side is that in another lost year, at least Felix Pie will be given a chance to be properly evaluated.

I think we are all going to have to accept that Adam Jones is the type of player that gets hurt a lot, although at least a few of his injuries are of the freak variety (foul ball on the foot, twisted ankle on a base).

I'm bummed, though. I love watching that kid play, even when he does frustrate me to no end with his silly strikeouts.

Adam's thoughts on his injury, as transcribed by Roch:

Jones wants to be optimistic. The first words out of his mouth were, "It's a tough injury, but to me, I see myself playing. It's a matter of when. It's a joint. You really can't determine when."

Jones said his entire foot is swollen now, as opposed to only the ankle last night. He's receiving ice treatments, but there isn't much more that the training staff can do for him at this point. The swelling will have to go down. The ankle obviously is sore to the touch.

"Sucks. It just sucks, to me," Jones said. "It's something you can't control. Your playing, everything's going so fast, you never know what could happen. It was just unfortunate, something I'll have to deal with."

I'll assume that grammatical error belongs to Roch, not Adam :-)

Yankees 9, Orioles 6

Stacey — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 03:17:35 -0000

by Rob Carr - AP

2 months ago: New York Yankees' Jorge Posada rounds the bases after hitting a home run, as Baltimore Orioles first baseman Luke Scott stands nearby during the third inning of a baseball game Tuesday, Sept. 1, 2009, in Baltimore. (AP Photo/Rob Carr)

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You'd have to be blind not to notice that there have been some tense moments around Camden Chat lately, and I'd be in denial if I said that I had nothing to do with it. It's another long, hard baseball season and personally it's taken its toll. It takes a toll on me every year, but this is the first year I've had a larger responsibility here. Don't get me wrong, I love Camden Chat. We have a wonderful thing going here. But for me it's been sort of amplified, the suckitude, at least compared to years past. So if I start acting like a biotech on anybody, my apologies in advance; just call me on it and I'll get over myself.

Tonight was yet another frustrating loss. My head says, "Who cares" but I can't help it. Watching the losses, listening to that pro-Yankee crowd, seeing another season end with a whimper, it's tough. It makes my stomach hurt. We keep banking on the future, but what if it never comes? What if there is 12 more years of this? Do I stop liking baseball? Because I can't keep it up, and I can't root for another team.

I'm sorry. This is self-serving drivel. It's not a game recap, not even close. I just can't wait for the day that fights don't break out about Felix Pie because we have nothing else to focus on, and that September isn't a month to dread and the the off-season isn't one of the most exciting times of the year. That's it for that kind of talk, though. It's depressing and useless. On to the recap!

David Hernandez pitched poorly. He only gave up four hits but he walked 7 and 3 of the 4 hits were home runs. Two of those home runs were hit with a runner on base who'd gotten there via a walk. Dennis Sarfate then made his triumphant return by facing two batters, both of which reached. Then with two outs and both of Dennis Sarfate's runners still on, Dave Trembley brought in Chris Ray to face A-Rod, because that's always a good idea. A-Rod at least didn't hit a home run, but he did hit a single to score a run. He looked awful but for some reason he went back out for the next inning where he gave up back-to-back home runs to Nick Swisher and Erik Hinske. Nice.

Anyone who has ever watched Chris Ray knows that he's garbage against the Yankees. In 18.1 career innings he's allowed 19 runs and 6 home runs. That's before tonight, by the way. But God forbid anyone on the Orioles pay any attention to that. Who needs strategy when we've got folksy?

The Orioles offense wasn't awful tonight. The Yankees allow an average of 4.69 runs per game and the Orioles scored six. Felix Pie hit another home run, Melvin Mora had a nice RBI hit, and Luke Scott hit a vintage LUUUKE 3 run home run onto Eutaw Street. But it wasn't enough, of course it wasn't. They had a few missed opportunities, sure, but you want to think that six runs would be enough.

Oh, and Adam Jones hurt himself again.

Poll

Who was tonight's Most Birdland Player (MBP)?

Felix Pie (another home run)

16 votes

Luke Scott (beastly 3 run home run onto Eutaw Street)

77 votes

Nick Markakis (3 hits, 2 runs)

11 votes

Nolan Reimold (3 hits, 1 walk, 2 runs)

12 votes

Melvin Mora (3 hits, 2 RBI)

7 votes

Nobody

36 votes

159 votes | Poll has closed