SB Nation - Brandon Backe

Astros Roster Breakdown: The Starters

davoag — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 21:49:44 -0000

More photos » by Dino Vournas - AP

Roy Oswalt, in a rare good mood

To lead off the starters section, I wanted to focus a little on Roy Oswalt. The soon-to-be 32-year old had his worst season as a professional, but was that a sign of aging and decline, or just a bump in the road?

His BABiP shows he wasn't unlucky in 2009 and was right in line with his career average. He also didn't throw more pitchers per plate appearance than he has in his career, while getting the most swinging strikes he's had since 2004. He did have a slight dip in his percentage of strikeouts that were looking, but since his swing and miss percentage didn't change, I think that was more statistical noise than anything.

You can't even blame injuries for hampering his stuff, because his fastball velocity was the same as it has been for the past few years. In fact, it actually ticked up a notch, but that's probably because of the only significant difference in his performance this season, a 5% drop in the number of fastballs he threw. Oswalt supplemented with more sliders and changeups. So, speed was not an issue...was something wrong with his movement? I wish I were smart enough to put together those cool scatter charts using the PitchF/X data, but I'm not there yet. I'd really like to see if he lost movement or late life on his fastball to determine if that's what the injuries robbed him of.

Other than possibly that, it appears his main problem may have been his attitude. Clashing so publicly and so often with Cecil Cooper, Roy just didn't give off the vibes of a guy playing his best. I'm sure he was playing his hardest, since he seems to have only one speed in that regard. But I wonder if he was mentally there this season. It's the one thing we can't really quantify, attitude.

Hear that, Brad Mills? Keep The Wizard happy next season and he'll bounce back.

Onto the rest of the starting rotation after the jump...

Roy Oswalt, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 8-6, 181 1/3 IP, 4.12 ERA, 30 GS, 19 HR, 138 strikeouts, 42 walks, 1.24 WHIP, 101 ERA+

FIP: 3.76

Average Game Score: 53

BABiP:.305

GB/FB: 1.21

Pitching Runs Created: 70

Notes: Since we've already talked about Roy-Boy's career trajectory, let's focus in on his 2009 season. Is this just the pitcher Roy is now? He struggled with getting any kind of decision all season, finishing with 16 non-decisions. His BABiP was right in line with normal luck, and he still got plenty of ground balls. The concerning part is his strikeout total, but as I said, that's been pretty steady for the past four seasons. His FIP shows he should have had a better ERA, but it would still have been his highest in his career. Roy was one of the main players disappointed in Cooper. Hopefully, he'll be motivated in 2010, because with Roy feeling right and Wandy pitching well, we will have a nice front end to the rotation. About that back end, though...

Wandy Rodriguez, LHP

2009 Season Stats: 14-12, 205 2/3 IP, 3.02 ERA, 33 GS, 21 HR, 193 strikeouts, 63 walks, 1.24 WHIP, 138 ERA+

FIP: 3.54

Average Game Score: 57

BABiP:.306

GB/FB: 1.21

Pitching Runs Created:100

Notes: Wandy was the best pitcher on the Astros staff last season. To put it in perspective, the difference between his and Roy's PRC was Mike Hampton. Maybe overly simple, but pretty amazing, no? Wandy's BABiP showed he wasn't just lucky to pitch this well and his strikeout total is very impressive, especially for a lefty. You'd like to see a few fewer walks, but that's just quibbling. The other interesting thing is his game scores. At 57, it was the highest of any of the starters and showed just how good he was game-to-game. His home/away splits were still very pronounced, though his strikeout rate was about the same. Two full runs of ERA though? For Wandy to take that next step to be an ace, he needs to perform better in road games.

Brian Moehler, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 8-12, 154 2/3 IP, 5.47 ERA, 29 GS, 21 HR, 91 strikeouts, 51 walks, 1.53 WHIP, 76 ERA+

FIP: 4.75

Average Game Score: 44

BABiP:.325

GB/FB: 1.25

Pitching Runs Created: 39

Notes: Moehler started the third-most games on the team last season. The trouble was, he did not perform like a third starter. Though his FIP was lower than his ERA and his BABiP meant he was a little unlucky, Moehler was more bad than good. His strikeouts and walks were both not where they should be. Though he had a good G/F ratio, his average game score shows he was a below league average starter in most of his outings. Much was made about a few of his starts at the beginning and end of the season blowing his ERA up too high. If you added 50 points to his total game score, he still would be well belew the the baseline. As a back-end starter? Moehler probably is useful, but will be recovering from a knee injury he had surgery on. Still, for 3 million? He's not a bad option.

Mike Hampton, LHP

2009 Season Stats: 7-10, 112 IP, 5.30 ERA, 21 GS, 13 HR, 74 strikeouts, 37 walks, 1.55 WHIP, 78 ERA+

FIP: 4.57

Average Game Score: 45

BABiP:.322

GB/FB: 1.78

Pitching Runs Created: 30

Notes: Hampy did just what we thought he'd do, getting a ton of ground balls and not really overpowering anyone. Oh, and getting hurt. He did that too. It's a little surprising Hampton gave up as many home runs as he did, but it did appear this experiment failed.

Felipe Paulino, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 3-11, 97 2/3 IP, 6.27 ERA, 17 GS, 20 HR, 93 strikeouts, 37 walks, 1.67 WHIP, 66 ERA+

FIP: 5.11

Average Game Score: 45

BABiP:.368

GB/FB: 1.08

Pitching Runs Created: 24

Notes: Obviously, anytime a hot, young prospect makes his debut and promptly posts a 6+ ERA, it's hard to be very excited. I still think his performance was somewhat affected by recovering from his 2008 injury, even if only slightly. His strikeouts numbers were great, though he gave up too many hits to win consistently. Paulino is too talented not to win more than three games next season, but it may take him a while to adjust. The Astros would pay more on the open market for a pitcher without nearly the upside of Paulino.

Russ Ortiz, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 3-6, 85 2/3 IP, 5.57 ERA, 13 GS, 8 HR, 65 strikeouts, 48 walks, 1.67 WHIP, 75 ERA+

FIP: 4.61

Average Game Score: 42

BABiP:.330

GB/FB: 1.62

Pitching Runs Created: 23

Notes: Ouch. The positives? Ortiz only gave up eight home runs and had a nice G/F ratio of 1.62. That's about it, though, as his nice start gave way to a rough time in the rotation. Ortiz wasn't as bad as his ERA indicated, but neither was he very good. He was hittable and probably was best as a swingman in the bullpen. He'll have to be that for some other team though, as I don't see the Astros bringing him back.

Bud Norris, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 6-3, 55 2/3 IP, 4.53 ERA, 10 GS, 54 strikeouts, 25 walks, 1.50 WHIP, 92 ERA+

FIP: 4.77

Average Game Score: 49

BABiP:.327

GB/FB: 0.87

Pitching Runs Created: 20

Notes: Norris had the most successful debut of any Astros rookie in 2009. He had some rough patches, obviously, but his average game score was still just a shade under average. He was a bit unlucky with his BABiP and gave up too many fly balls, but the strikeouts were there and the walks were minimized. I don't know whether he can get his control working well enough to be a permanent fixture in the rotation, but with his arm, he will have a place on the big league team for a while.

Yorman Bazardo, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 1-3, 32 IP, 7.88 ERA, 6 GS, 17 strikeouts, 22 walks, 1.84 WHIP, 53 ERA+

FIP: 5.00

Average Game Score: 34

BABiP:.323

GB/FB: 1.52

Pitching Runs Created:5

Notes: The Astros won a bidding war to sign Bazardo to a minor league deal in spring training. He joined with Bud Norris and, later, Polin Trinidad to form a potent rotation at Round Rock. Unfortunately, Bazardo may be the proverbial Quadruple-A guy. His strikeout rate has never been very good (5.3 K/9 in minor-league career), though he supplements that by not allowing too many walks. Bazardo does get a fair number of ground balls and his BABiP showed he was slightly unlucky in 2009. His ERA, though, doesn't really support the claim that his failure was all because of Tejada and Matsui. Bazardo should probably be given another shot, but he's a fringe fifth starter at most.

Wilton Lopez, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 0-2, 19 1/3 IP, 8.38 ERA, 2 GS, 9 strikeouts, 8 walks, 2.07 WHIP, 50 ERA+

FIP: 6.25

Average Game Score: 35

BABiP:.381

GB/FB: 2.32

Pitching Runs Created: 2

Notes: Lopez pitched eight games out of the bullpen, but did start two games, so he ended up in this list. A pickup from the Padres, Lopez pitched relatively well for Corpus Christi before getting a late-season callup. Lopez had a good ground ball rate for his limited sample size and his FIP was lower than his ERA (though neither were very good). He profiles as a guy who could hang around Triple-A and help the Astros out in a pinch, but I wouldn't count on him contributing much in 2009.

Brandon Backe, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 0-0, 13 IP, 10.38 ERA, 1 GS, 10 strikeouts, 6 walks, 2.08 WHIP, 40 ERA+

FIP: 7.94

Average Game Score: 41

BABiP:.375

GB/FB: 0.77

Pitching Runs Created: 2

Notes:You'll find no bigger fan of the Galveston native than me. Jeff Kent's home run to beat the Cards in 2004 wouldn't have been possible without Backe throwing a whale of a game. Unfortunately, that's all we got from him. Tantalizing glimpses at potential that never really panned out in the majors. Backe ran into a wall of injuries and ineffectiveness in 2009, refused a demotion to Triple-A and was released.

Building a team the Astros way, and building a team the smart way

HighLeveragePerformer — Sat, 29 Aug 2009 11:00:29 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

An entire outfield of 2009 free agents could be assembled, make less money than Carlos combined and out produce him dramatically.

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The Astros are going to have to indulge in the free agent market of 2010 in order to field a competitive team next season. I don't think that anyone here would try to argue that point. How and who are the two questions that go along with free agent signings, as in how much to spend, and who to sign?

Well, it's still too early to really get down to the nitty gritty of things, but what we can do is look back and identify bargains and trends in the marketplace. Sky Andrecheck of Baseball Analysts did just that in a recent post which looked at the free agent class of 2009 and built a team from those players. He describes his experiment much better than I ever could, but suffice it to say, bargains do exist.

Who did he select to be a part of the club?

Catchers: Gregg Zaun, David Ross

Infielders: Wes Helms, Felipe Lopez, Casey Blake, Juan Uribe Craig Counsell

Total $ spent: $15.3 million, Total WAR: 13.1

Outfielders/DH: Bobby Abreu, Juan Rivera, Scott Podsednik, Raul Ibanez

Total $ spent: $35 million, Total WAR: 23.6

Starting Pitchers: Mike Hampton, Brad Penny, Carl Pavano, Randy Wolf, CC Sabathia

Total $ spent: $78.8 million, Total WAR: 35.3

That club is good for a 71-49 record through 120 games, solid enough for a playoff spot. Bargains are easier to find offensively than in pitching, so the Sabathia signing was by leaps and bounds the most outlandish contract he chose to take on.

Painfully, let's determine the Astros' team WAR, or at least a rough approximation of it.

Offensively: The entire Astros' offense (not counting the negative values that most of our pitchers/bench has contributed) is good for a WAR of 15.1. Unlike the all free agent team, the Astros offense has gotten 43% of its output from two players: Lance Berkman and Michael Bourn.

Sort of a "fun" sidenote: Pudge's WAR in total is .8, while his Astro-WAR is .6. He's added .2 WAR since joining the Rangers....less than 2 weeks ago.

Pitching: Just counting our starting pitchers' contributions, including the negative WARs for Brandon Backe and Felipe Paulino, the staff WAR is 7.5. Add it all up, and the Astros have a 22.6 team WAR, 12.7 wins less than Andrecheck's fictitious club. Drayton McLane has also spent roughly $20 million more on the players who I used in this article, not counting fairly large contracts for relievers like LaTroy Hawkins, Doug Brocail and Tim Byrdak, and bench players like Jason Michaels and Darin Erstad.

I come to the same conclusion as Andrecheck does: it's possible to build a playoff contender just in free agency, but it's too difficult without being able to look back on things. There are plenty of ways to be successful in MLB, but it's becoming obvious that the Astros aren't doing any of them.

Looking to Refine FIPs with Pitch F/X

Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) — Sat, 18 Jul 2009 10:00:16 -0000

FIPs measures 3 factors that totally dependent on the pitcher, strikeouts, walks and home runs. A player's strikeout and base on balls numbers are fairly consistent if a player changes ball parks, but the number of home runs he gives up may change depending on the park. The Hardball Times tracks xFIPs which counts every 11^th (league average) fly ball a home run.

A while back I did a piece on Randy Johnson for Driveline Mechanics and found that Randy was leaving the ball higher in the strike zone than he did previously. Most of the home runs he allows was higher in the zone and this led him giving up more home runs this season..

Putting these two ideas together, I looked to see if a pitcher's home run rate correlates to the number of pitches thrown into the heart of the plate (area where the average home runs is hit from) . First I took at all the Pitch F/X available for 2007 to 2009 (I ran the queries a couple of weeks ago, so the 2009 data is from around July 1^st). I took the normal strike zone of 1.5 to 3.5 vertical and -1.2 to 1.2 horizontally and saw how many pitchers where in this zone and how many home runs were hit. I began to shrink the zone down and noting the percentage of home runs hit from that area until I got the the area where 66% and 50% of the home runs was hit from. The following graphic and chart shows the 3 zones:

	Normal Zone	2/3 Home Run Zone	½ Home Run Zone
Percent of HR hit from Zone	94.90%	66.41%	49.85%
X coordinate	-1.2	-1	-0.86
X coordinate	1.2	1	0.86
Y coordinate	1.5	2	2.14
Y coordinate	3.5	3	2.86
Area of Zone	4.8	2	1.24

After creating the three zones, I looked at the 88 qualified pitchers from 2008.and saw how many home runs they gave up when throwing pitches into these zones. I graphed the percentage of pitches (using zone, not umpire calls) in the zone to the number of home runs to see how well the data correlated as seen in the following graphs (one of the 66% HR zone and one of the 50% HR zone):

There is very little correlation (r-squared of 0.05 and 0.11)

to pitching to the zone where home runs's are given up and actually giving up a home run. A little Master of the Obvious here, but it looks like different pitchers have different abilities. I went on to compare throwing to the heart of the strike zone to the following variables and not one had an r-squared over 0.07: BABIP, GB/FB, LD%, GB%, FB%, HR/FB, HR/9, ERA, FIP.

What I was looking for doesn't seem to simply exist and I have thought of few way to modify search. Since I have the data readily available, here are the 2008 leaders and laggards in Heart Pitches per HR with the average value at 32.1:

Name	Pitches in Heart/HR
Jair Jurrjens	101.7
Jon Lester	96.3
Brandon Webb	86.8
John Danks	86.0
Roy Halladay	80.2
Mike Pelfrey	79.2
Dana Eveland	74.5
Hiroki Kuroda	66.2
Cliff Lee	66.2
Ian Snell	65.5

Todd Wellemeyer	21.1
Paul Byrd	20.7
Tim Wakefield	20.4
Aaron Harang	19.9
Ricky Nolasco	19.7
Vicente Padilla	19.5
Jeff Suppan	19.1
Armando Galarraga	18.6
Scott Olsen	17.5
Brandon Backe	16.4

I didn't find exactly what I was looking for when I began looking at this data. I feel Pitch F/X numbers can be used to help determine the true value of pitchers and batters, but this method does not seem to be one of those cases. I might divide out speed, type and movement of pitch at a later date, but for now I am settled on using FIPs and xFIPs.

The Astros at the break: The mediocre, the bad, and the ugly

DyingQuail — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 21:49:37 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

I would love nothing more than to see this happen another 20-30 times in 2009.

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On this, the day in which no baseball will be played, it's time to finally dig through some of the numbers to see what we might be able to divine about the Astros chances in the second half.

In the interest of front page space...I am making you jump.

We'll start with some of the more obvious stats:

Offense:

BA: .267 (3rd in NL)
OBP: .330 (8th in NL)
SLG: .405 (8th in NL)
OPS: .735 (8th in NL)

It's weird how BA fails to agree with OBP/SLG/OPS. There's just not much to be made from these stats, so let's get nerdy:

ISO: .138 (9th in NL)
wOBA: .321 (7th in NL)
BABIP: .301 (9th in NL)
WAR: 8.2 (tied for 8th in NL)

K%: 16.8% (2nd in NL)
BB%: 8.3% (14th in NL)
K:BB: .54 (5th in NL)

LD%: 18.1% (16th in NL)
GB%: 48.5% (16th in NL)
FB%: 33.4% (16th in NL)
IFFB%: 9.3% (7th in NL)
HR/FB: 8.6% (tied for 12th in NL)
IFH%: 6.8% (5th in NL)
O-Swing%: 27.1% (2nd or 15th in NL depending on your perspective) [ % of swings at balls outside the strike zone ]
O-Contact%: 64.3% (3rd or 14th in NL)

Ok, now there's something to work with. What immediately pops out at me is the ridiculously low walk rate combined with the high outside of the zone contact rate. If our OBP is in the middle of the pack, but is being fueled by as much contact as is it, I find it disconcerting that the Astros are swinging/connecting at/with a lot of pitches outside of the zone. While our BABIP is normal, our low LD%, high GB%, and high IFH%, lead me to worry as to whether these number indicate a possible drop off in production for us. I know that Pence and Bourn probably represent 32 of our 81 in field hits this year, but as much bad contact is probably being made on the outside of the strike zone pitches, I start to wonder if OBP will start to slide in the second half.

While there is only a 2.4% margin between the Astros and the Dodgers (1st n the NL) in LD%, my guess is that our low FB% and high GB% is being fueled by outside the zone contact. The good news is that is something I feel would be correctable should Coop or someone else just hammer home plate discipline or order the worst offenders to take pitches or sit on the bench (...it worked for Billy Beane?).

Pitching:

Just as in 2008, our offense has been less than we expected, but our pitching has done better than at least I would have guessed. Given Roy's early season struggles and the fact that Wandy has regressed his early season luck back to the mean, we should have a strong one-two bunch heading into the second half. What is frightening though, is to consider that we are now going to be depending on three 35+ year old guys to anchor the rotation. No matter what the offense does or does not do in the second half, my gut feeling is that the Astros playoff chances lie in the hands Brian Moehler, Russ Ortiz, and Mike Hampton and how well the hold up in the second of the season. Unless of course Feliepe Paulino, Bud Norris, Yorman Bazardo, or Polin Trinidad are given a crack the rotation again, which injury could very well necessitate.

In all, so far, the Astros pitchers have combined for 5.6 WAR in the first half (10th in the NL). This isn't bad considering Roy's struggles, Geary's wicked struggles, Valverde being out for six weeks, and Brandon Backe even being given innings to pitch.

Defense:

I should probably make my previous statement about what the rest of our season hinges on a 1a) and a 1b) statement. If 1a) is that Moehler, Ortiz, and Hampton have to be able to find some kind of consistency amongst themselves in the second half, then 1b) logically follows as: for the tight rope act that these three walk to continue, the fielding behind them has to be better than it has been.

While I can't find the exact figure, off hand, last year's infield RZR was above .800 and I think we'd be talking about a much different ball club if it were that way again this year. Brian Moehler's last few starts have been solid, but he's been successful because he's had solid defense behind him converting all the balls in play he allows into outs; Hampton and Ortiz aren't much different in terms of approach and their dependence on GB outs necessitates solid infield defense.

Miguel Tejada's -10.5 UZR/150 certainly isn't doing us any favors as that indicates he'll have cost us an entire win by the time the season is in the books because of his diminished glove.

Base Running:

BtB just did an amazing piece on team base running at the ASB, so I'll leave the truly inquistitve of you to read through it and play around with the awesome spread sheet Sky includes.

Here's how I can summarize what I gleaned from it all:

Someone needs to sit down with Hunter Pence and make him watch a lot of video so that he can figure out some kind of situational awareness on the base paths.
Carlos Lee needs to drop a few lbs., or start hitting for more power so that his lack of mobility stops dragging the team down. He's on pace to costs us an entire win just because he can't run the base paths. $18.5 million sure doesn't buy what it used to...
Lance Berkman and Miguel Tejada need to either get faster, smarter, or just start playing it conservative on the base paths.
Anybody not named Michael Bourn should not be allowed to steal a base unless it's a high-rewards situation and the probabilities (based on pitcher/catcher) are favorable. This is something Coop has just about full control over and can certainly be fixed.

Conclusion:

A lot has been thrown out here, but here's what I took away from it all:

Chasing balls out of the zone has the potential really suppress our offense in the second half.
Keeping Moehler, Ortiz, and Hampton on a very tight leash before they get replaced by a young gun at AAA makes sense.
Edwin Maysonet should be given due consideration as a possible defensive platoon for Miguel Tejada on the days that Mike Hampton (52.1 GB%) and Russ Ortiz (47 GB%) start given their dependence on converting GB outs. This serves to the duel purpose of increasing the efficacy of Hampton and Ortiz's skill set and also would provide Miguel Tejada with plenty of rest to keep his bat sharp and maybe even improve his range at SS. Seriously, Jason Michales does not need to be on this team.
One of either Brian Moehler or Russ Ortiz is due to blow up in the second half, but my money is one Moehler--a fly ball pitcher who strikes very few people out, at age 37, scares the bejesus out of me.
A whole new attitude on the base paths to permeate the club house.

Ruminations on the Astros being .500 at the ASB

HighLeveragePerformer — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 11:00:17 -0000

More photos » by Rob Carr - AP

Jason Castro and Bud Norris offer the Astros two legitimate prospects to be excited about.

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Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman struggle mightily to start the season.

Jose Valverde, Doug Brocail, and Mike Hampton all miss significant time.

Geoff Geary goes Oscar Villareal on us.

Brandon Backe goes all Brandon Backe on us.

Our offense ranks in the bottom of the NL in runs scored, SLG%, HR and just about every other meaningful category.

Brian Moehler, Russ Ortiz and Hampton don't stink up the place, but are what they are: veteran pitchers who rely more on grit than anything else.

............................................................................................

Two waiver wire pick ups solidify the bullpen, and LaTroy Hawkins continues to pitch well in an Astros uniform.

Hunter Pence lays off that pesky slider, en route to becoming the sort of player we all hoped he would be.

Arguably the worst offensive player in MLB last year, Michael Bourn, alters his game and has a remarkably consistent first half of 2009.

Geoff Blum collects three game winning hits, plays better defense than most thirty five year olds, and gets on base at a .350 clip.

Wandy Rodriguez picks up the slack when Roy started poorly, and has seemingly put everything together in order to give the Astros the number two pitcher they've lacked in recent seasons

Chris Sampson, though his innings piled up, induced grounders and added to the bullpen's overall strength

Bobby Heck's forsight in selecting Jason Castro with the tenth overall selection in the 2008 draft. Baseball America ranks Castro as the #19 prospect in all of baseball. Jordan Lyles is ranked in the top fifty.

The Lexington Legends' starting rotation is the best collection of young starters in Low A ball, and most likely the whole of the minor leagues.

Jason Castro smacked a three run home run in the All Star Future Game. Chia Jen Lo impressed the folks at ESPN as well.

Felipe Paulino showed flashes of brilliance, and Bud Norris, Polin Trinidad and Yorman Bazardo are young arms that will help the Astros sooner rather than later.

........................................................................................................................................

The Astros are .500, and are an infinitely more interesting team in July than they were in April. We open up the second half in Los Angeles, and I for one can't wait for this break to be over.

Thursday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 14:15:52 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

Finally, we have a video highlight of this moment.

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Some things to read while cuddling up with Miguel Cabrera.

The Brewers finished off a good, but not great homestand with the Mets yesterday, and remain in sole possession of first place heading into a four game series in Chicago starting tonight. Seth McClung, who starts tonight, said he's looking forward to the atmosphere at Wrigley. "Atmosphere" is one of the few positive things visiting players have to say about the park.

Did you do your part this week by booing Gary Sheffield? Brian Costa of the Newark Star-Ledger discusses the reactions Sheffield receives on the road, including in Milwaukee, and quotes a blogger you might know.

Meanwhile, A Girl's View wonders why the Mets didn't just send a rookie starter to the mound this week. And Sports Rubbish has the video highlight you've all been waiting to see: Fernando Martinez' faceplant in center field.

Now that we're into July, Doug Melvin and company are intently watching the trade market for opportunities to improve the team, but working to lower expectations at the same time. Melvin also said he isn't interested in Brandon Backe.

In the minors:

Mat Gamel checked in at #13 in Project Prospect's Midseason Top 50, with Alcides Escobar nowhere to be found. Jonathan Mayo of MiLB.com said he'd take Gamel's upside over fellow 3B prospect Brett Wallace.
The international signing period begins today and the Brewers are expected to make a big splash by signing Dominican OF Jose Pena. Depending on who you ask, his bonus could be anywhere from $500k to $1.5 million.
Alcides Escobar, Brendan Katin and R.J. Swindle have been named to the PCL All Star team. Escobar was also selected to the MLB Futures Game. Swindle is making his first All Star appearance at any level.
The Brewers officially announced the signings of seventh round pick Khris Davis, 8th round pick Chad Stang, 25th round pick Demetrius McKelvie and two undrafted free agents yesterday. Some of that is old news: Davis was already in the lineup for Helena a couple of days ago.

This probably isn't news to you: Jason Kendall has caught a lot of games. Among those games, there has been the occasional close win. Kendall has caught 463 saves, sixth most all time.

On Power Rankings:

Beyond the Box Score moved the Brewers up from 17th to 16th.
MLB FanHouse dropped the Brewers from sixth to seventh.

This isn't actually a Power Ranking, but it fits in with them: ESPN the Magazine just completed their Ultimate Standings for 2009 for all North American major pro sports teams, and the Brewers are ranked #7, up from #13 last year. They rank in the top 20 in six of the eight categories measured and in the top ten in Affordability (third), Stadium Experience (third) and Bang for the Buck (seventh). On the other end of the spectrum, the Bucks rank 110th out of 122 franchises.

Around the League:

Cardinals: Mark DeRosa is day to day after being diagnosed with a strained tendon in his wrist.
Cubs: Have reportedly reached a deal to acquire utility infielder Jeff Baker from the Rockies.
Dodgers: Designated outfielder Mitch Jones for assignment.
Pirates: Released outfielder Craig Monroe, who had been designated for assignment.
Rockies: Designated catcher Paul Phillips for assignment.
Royals: Shortstop Mike Aviles will undergo Tommy John surgery and miss about 12 months.
Twins: Released reliever Luis Ayala, who had been designated for assignment.

Did you have any run ins with obnoxious Met fans this week? In a poll in the Baltimore Sun, 80% of voters rated Met fans the most obnoxious in baseball. I can't imagine that, because off the top of my head I'd list the Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs and Phillies ahead of the Mets, without question.

As I mentioned before, the international signing period begins today, and with Jose Pena reportedly off the market, the top available talent might be Cuban lefty Aroldis Chapman, who reportedly has defected. Chapman is 21, throws 90+ and pitched for Cuba in the WBC.

Some days my attention span is painfully short. This morning, for example, I read this story and all I got out of it was the fact that Dr. Mark Schickendantz might be the coolest name I've ever seen.

Oh, and happy birthday to knuckleballer Steve Sparks, who pitched 202 innings for the 1995 Brewers and turns 44 today.

Drink up.

Brandon Backe Finally Released

Jack Moore — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 21:03:54 -0000

More photos » by Tony Gutierrez - AP

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The Houston Astros have finally realized something that people have known for years. By releasing Brandon Backe on Monday, the Astros have acknowledged that Backe is not a major league pitcher. Backe started out as a reliever with the Devil Rays in 2002, and was then turned into a starter by the Astros after they acquired him in 2004. Backe never really had any fantastic seasons by any measure, although he may have impressed those in the Astros organizations in his first year there by posting a 4.30 ERA in 67 IP, along with a decent enough 4.63 FIP. However, injuries would ruin both any chance at getting playing time as well as, seemingly, his stuff. Here's the injury log for Backe courtesy of his SBNation Player Page.

07/27/05	Strained rib muscle, 15-day DL.
09/03/05	Missed 34 games (strained rib muscle).
03/01/06	Re-signed by the Houston Astros to a one-year contract.
04/13/06	Right elbow injury, day-to-day.
04/14/06	Right elbow injury, 15-day DL.
06/07/06	Transferred from the 15-day DL to the 60-day DL (right elbow injury).
07/22/06	Missed 89 games (right elbow injury).
08/19/06	Right ulnar collateral ligament, 15-day DL.
10/02/06	Missed the last 40 games of the regular season (right ulnar collateral ligament).
12/09/06	Re-signed by the Houston Astros to a one-year contract.
03/28/07	Right elbow injury, 15-day DL.
08/31/07	Missed 134 games (right elbow injury).
01/11/08	Re-signed by the Houston Astros to a one-year contract.
01/20/09	Re-signed by the Houston Astros to a one-year contract.
03/23/09	Rib injury, 15-day DL.
05/27/09	Missed 45 games (rib injury).
06/27/09	Designated for assignment by the Houston Astros.

So, clearly, the time between 2005 and 2007 was rough for Brandon. However, that doesn't excuse the Astros' management for keeping him around for above the minimum contract in 2007, 2008 and 2009. Backe's skills had clearly declined since 2005, likely as a result of his injuries. From 2005-2009, Backe put in two full seasons (2005 and 2008) and limited action in 2006, 2007, and 2009. Backe never came close to either his 4.30 ERA or 4.63 FIP from 2004.

Season	Team	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	AVG	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	FIP
2005	Astros	5.85	4.04	1.45	1.15	0.26	1.46	0.29	71.70%	4.80
2006	Astros	3.98	3.77	1.06	0.84	0.26	1.42	0.28	78.80%	4.94
2007	Astros	3.45	3.45	1.00	1.26	0.25	1.33	0.25	78.50%	5.65
2008	Astros	6.86	4.16	1.65	1.94	0.30	1.67	0.33	72.70%	5.87
2009	Astros	6.92	4.15	1.67	3.46	0.36	2.08	0.38	60.00%	7.89

Backe's K/9 dipped a lot in his shortened '06 and '07 seasons, and while it recovered in '08 and '09, he still threw too many walks to last as a starting pitcher. The walks combined with the HR spike in 2008 (a full season) and in his very short stint in 2009 led to the Astros to finally cut ties with him. Still, Backe's last year as a minimum contract player was 2006. I can understand keeping Backe around in 2007 at 545K, but then the Astros inexplicably decided to avoid arbitration with Backe in 2008 and signed him for 800K, despite the sharp K/9 drop resulting in a basically 1 K/BB. As a replacement level player, the Astros should have non-tendered Backe, especially given all the injuries to Backe's arm over the 2005-2007 seasons.

Giving a player a 800K contract is not going to kill a franchise, by any means. However, repeated mistakes will certainly be enough to keep a franchise from making the playoffs or even competing. The Astros, for some unexplainable reason, avoided arbitration with Backe again by agreeing to a contract worth 1.55M for the 2009 season. Although Backe's strikeout numbers did improve greatly, his walks increased as well, and his HR numbers spiked, creating his worst year by FIP. For a player that never posted a K/BB above 2, who has an extensive history of injuries, and had posted roughly a whole win below replacement the season before, anything above the league minimum is almost certainly a mistake. The Astros did finally cut ties, but not without being on the hook for roughly another million dollars before the season is over. Whether GM Ed Wade or owner Drayton McLane is responsible for holding on for this long, it is a mistake that cannot be allowed to happen in the business of professional baseball.

Wednesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 14:28:25 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

4 months ago: Milwaukee Brewers' Mike Burns throws during the first inning of a baseball game against the New York Mets Tuesday, June 30, 2009, in Milwaukee. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)

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Some things to read while protecting your moneymaker.

Mike Burns earned his first major league win yesterday, defeating Johan Santana. He should probably send a thank you card to Ryan Braun, who powered the Brewer offense with three hits and four RBI. Braun is 7-for-12 in his career against Johan Santana, posting a 1.230 OPS. Among players who have faced Santana at least twelve times, Braun has the eleventh highest OPS. The highest belongs to Rickie Weeks (1.738). Jay Gibbons, Ray Durham and Junior Spivey are also ahead of Braun on that list.

Burns' solid performance last night might have reduced the Brewers' interest in looking outside the organization for replacement-level-at-best pitching help. Before yesterday's game, assistant GM Gord Ash said the Brewers would take a look at Brandon Backe, who was recently released by the Astros. Backe has also taken up residence in Rumorville.

After losing to Mike Burns last night, Mets manager Jerry Manuel called a 25-minute team meeting to discuss the Mets' struggles. One thing is for sure: all the Mets players are required to take the team bus to today's game.

Brewer pitchers continue to reap the benefits of improved defense: FanGraphs reports the Brewer team UZR is 25.3 runs better than last season. That's a huge improvement when you consider that all eight primary position players from 2008 are with the team in 2009. Mike Cameron probably deserves some of the credit, and his home run stealing catch over the weekend was SportsCenter's Play of the Month for June.

The Brewers are also continuing to reap the benefits of unexpected contributions from Casey McGehee. Between the Green Pillars notes that McGehee is probably getting a little lucky (.376 BABIP), but he's also hitting a ton of line drives (22.8%, higher than Prince Fielder). He also hit .429 during interleague play to lead all batters. Hardball Cooperative added McGehee to their Bargain Bin All Star squad.

McGehee's performance is also part of the reason the Brewers are considering returning Mat Gamel to AAA. He's sat out five of the last six games, and could benefit from consistent at bats and work in the field in Nashville.

J.J. Hardy is also getting hot: his 1-for-4 game last night raised his average to .233, up from .215 just six days ago. Hardy is hitting .340/.393/.560 in his last 13 games, raising his OPS from .610 to .676. Hardy has earned Ken Macha's respect by continuing to battle through his struggles.

Can a resurgent J.J. Hardy lead the Brewers back to the playoffs? Chuckie Hacks lists five reason why the Brewers will win the NL Central, including a reason he forgot, and a joke about bullies that I don't get.

In the minors:

2009 24th round pick Peter Fatse picked up a hit in his debut for Wisconsin last night. Fatse played in just four games for Helena before being promoted to fill in a gap in the outfield for the Timber Rattlers.
Meanwhile, first round pick Eric Arnett got his nails done.

Around the league:

Cardinals: Mark DeRosa left last night's game after suffering a wrist injury and will be reevaluated today.
Indians: Released Luis Vizcaino, who had earlier been designated for assignment.
Pirates: Traded Eric Hinske to the Yankees for former Brewer farmhand Eric Fryer, and traded Nyjer Morgan and Sean Burnett to the Nationals for Lastings Milledge and Joel Hanrahan.
Red Sox: Placed Mike Lowell on the DL with a hip issue.

Is the worst managing in baseball done in the NL Central? A recent poll conducted by Sports Illustrated had both Cubs manager Lou Piniella (26%) and Cardinals manager Tony La Russa (10%) in the top three in a poll asking major leaguers which manager they least want to play for. At the same time, Dusty Baker is once again being asked to explain why he isn't playing his best players in Cincinnati.

Oh, and happy birthday to former Brewer farmhand and likely AL All Star Nelson Cruz, who turns 29 today.

Drink up.

Tuesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 14:36:26 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

4 months ago: Milwaukee Brewers' Casey McGehee (14) is congratulated by J.J. Hardy, left, and Prince Fielder after hitting a grand slam during the sixth inning of a baseball game against the New York Mets Monday, June 29, 2009, in Milwaukee. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)

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Some things to read while fixing your shirt.

Trevor Hoffman notched career save #572 against the Mets, a day after Mariano Rivera picked up his 500th save against them. The Elias Sports Bureau (via TheJay) reports that the Mets became the first team ever to be closed out by Hoffman and Rivera on back to back days. Rivera also picked up an RBI during his save: Baseball Reference remembers Hoffman's first RBI.

Last night's win combined with a Cardinal loss to give the Brewers sole possession of first place in the Central. It was also one of the more memorable nights in the career of Casey McGehee, giving Tristarscoop over at Cute Sports all the more reason to love him.

Mike Burns gets another shot to prove he belongs in the rotation tonight, when he'll have the unenviable task of facing off against Johan Santana. Now that Manny Parra struggled in his last start in AAA and Dave Bush is still out until after the All Star Break, both Burns and Seth McClung could be in line for extended auditions.

Ken Macha defended the Brewers' advance scouting operation after Ryan Braun suggested the Brewers struggled on Sunday because they didn't know much about Giants starter Ryan Sadowski. There's probably some truth to both sides: I'm sure the Brewer advance team is doing the best they can, but there's only so much they can tell you about a guy who's never appeared in the majors.

Whatever they're doing for Prince Fielder, though, they should keep doing. The Hardball Cooperative lists Fielder among their "3 Up" this week: Fielder entered play yesterday hitting .352 with seven home runs in June.

Another busy day down on the farm:

Jeremy Jeffress is serving a 100 game suspension for what was previously reported as his second failed marijuana test, but it's actually his fourth. Jeffress was given a warning and education for his first positive test and a fifty game suspension for his second positive test. While serving that suspension, he failed another team-administered test before receiving his most recent suspension for a fourth positive.
Eric Arnett pitched two shutout innings last night. He says he'd like to pitch more but the Brewers are taking it slow with him.
Brewerfan.net has a new Power 50 up. There's not much change at the top, but this is the first one to include several of the 2009 draftees.
Cameron Garfield is Between the Green Pillars' prospect of the week.

Should Yovani Gallardo be an All Star? It might turn out to be a moot point. Matthew Pouliot of Circling the Bases left Gallardo off of his projected NL roster because, assuming the rotation continues as projected, Gallardo would be unable to pitch in the game. Pouliot does predict Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder and Trevor Hoffman will make the squad.

On Power Rankings:

The Brewers jumped 8 spots to #6 in WhatifSports' Power Rankings.
Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star moved the Brewers up from 12th to 11th.
Inside the Majors has the Crew falling 3 spots to #9.
Souvenir City has the Brewers at #12.
Kerry Whisnant has the Brewers at #17.

Around the majors:

Astros: Brandon Backe declined an assignment to the minor leagues and will become a free agent.
Cubs: Placed Aaron Miles on the DL with a hyper-extended elbow.
Phillies: Placed Antonio Bastardo on the DL with a shoulder strain.

The Brewers won't see it in this series, but the Mets are trying something interesting with their rotation: When Oliver Perez comes off the DL, he's going to piggyback starts with Tim Redding. This is a relatively common practice in the minors, but it'll be interesting to see how it works out in the National League.

The Ian Snell saga continues in Pittsburgh: While Snell has clarified/backtracked on some of the things he said following his first AAA outing, Pirates GM Neal Huntington is calling the decision to sign Snell to a multi-year deal a mistake and it looks like Snell will be changing addresses sooner rather than later. Over in the FanPosts, 16 Lezcano wants the Brewers to pull the trigger on a move for Snell.

Interleague play is over (except for one makeup game) and the end couldn't come soon enough for several teams, including the Brewers. If you'd like to see a permanent end to interleague play, though, don't hold your breath: Brian McTaggart has the reason why it'll never go away:

Major League Baseball drew 8,371,002 fans during Interleague games this season for an average of 33,351 per game. The 2009 Interleague average is 16.1 percent higher than this season's current intraleague average of 28,727 per game. Since its inception in 1997, Interleague Play has drawn 12 percent more fans than intraleague games; Interleague Play has averaged 33,260 fans per game, compared to the intraleague average of 29,706 fans per game during the same span.

He's a former Brewer farmhand, has a freakish trait and throws a knuckleball. If I know anything about the average BCB reader, I know those three qualities make this story on RA Dickey a must read for them. (h/t Twinkie Town)

Oh, and happy birthday to Tony Fernandez, who played in 28 games for the 2001 Brewers and turns 47 today.

Drink up.

Monday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 14:28:03 -0000

More photos » by Jim Prisching - AP

Ryan Sadowski is the fourth pitcher in 2009 to lead his team to victory over the Brewers in his major league debut.

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Some things to read while trying out new games with your cats.

So, with yesterday's loss to the debuting Ryan Sadowski, the Brewers dropped to 0-4 when facing a pitcher making his major league debut. As if that wasn't enough, Sadowski was the first Giant to win his major league debut since Joe Nathan did it in 1999. Afterwards, he received a pie to the face.

Was Sadowski aided by the sun? Ryan Braun has some suggestions for improving the environment for hitters during day games at Miller Park. Prince Fielder, as you may recall, also complained about the glare through the outfield panels last week. The glare wasn't strong enough to prevent the Giants from going to town on Jeff Suppan, though.

Elsewhere in the Brewer rotation:

Seth McClung will get another shot to prove he belongs in the rotation full time. He'll start against the Cubs this weekend.
Keep Turning Up The Heat worries the Brewers are putting too much strain on Yovani Gallardo, who exceeded 110 pitches in his outing Saturday, the fifth time this season he's reached that mark.
Tyler Maas of Bugs & Cranks prefers the Brewers' internal options for the starting rotation.

Now that the Giants are out of town, the Mets will stop by today to open a three game series. Some Mets, though, don't want to stay in the Pfister Hotel, fearing paranormal activity. Sounds like we're going to have a story about the Pfister during every homestand for the rest of the season.

Of course, not all unusual activity in Milwaukee happens at the Pfister: Bengie Molina nearly had a close encounter of the sausage kind during his visit.

Craig Counsell is hoping to be back in the lineup for tonight's game with the Mets. Counsell sat out yesterday's game with a mild hamstring strain, but was available to pinch hit.

If Counsell isn't ready to go today, it'll probably mean more playing time for Casey McGehee, who has almost certainly been the most pleasant surprise of the first half of the season. Miller Park Drunk says McGehee has something in common with Pauly Shore and Kirk Cameron.

The Brewers appear to have gotten a pretty good deal on Trevor Hoffman, who Jon Heyman ranks as the second best free agent signing of the offseason. If the season ended right now Hoffman would be a Type A free agent, according to MLB Trade Rumors' Elias Rankings. The Brewers would also have three Type B free agents: Jason Kendall, Braden Looper and Mike Cameron.

Tom H. laments the Brewers lack of upper-level pitching prospects this morning, and lists the organization's top ten arms, with quick profiles and projected major league debuts. With the recent suspension of Jeremy Jeffress the ranks have become thinner than ever. Elsewhere in the minors:

Around 1 o'clock this morning, Eric Arnett tweeted that he'll be making his first big league start "tomorrow." I'm assuming he means tonight, but covering my bases in case he really meant tomorrow.
Alex Periard, who has missed most of the season after suffering shoulder soreness in spring training, has been promoted from Wisconsin to Brevard County. He was expected to spend 2009 in Huntsville, and could be there soon.
Taylor Green, meanwhile, is back on the DL, most likely with some kind of ribcage issue. Green is having a pretty forgettable 2009: He's been hitting very well when he's played (1.138 OPS in A, .833 in AA), but has appeared in just 39 games between Wisconsin and Huntsville.
John Sickels of Minor League Ball listed Cody Scarpetta as a potential sleeper before the season, and continues to project a bright future for him.
19th round pick Scott Krieger got his pro career off to a nice start, hitting three home runs last night in Helena's 15-10 win over Missoula.
Perhaps we already knew this, but it's new info to me: Brock Kjeldgaard's 113 strikeouts in 75 Pioneer League games last season set a new league record.

It's widely acknowledged that J.J. Hardy's early season struggles can be at least partially attributed to bad luck, but is it possible his skills are also declining at the plate? Brewed Sports noticed that Hardy's line drive percentage has decreased in each of the last four seasons, and a much smaller percentage of his fly balls are becoming home runs.

On power rankings:

The Hardball Times' Dartboard has the Brewers at #14.
Beyond the Box Score's Poor Man's Projected Standings have the Brewers finishing second in the Central.

Also, I'm not sure how the Racing Sausages missed the cut, but Bernie Brewer gets an early chapter in 30 Year Old Cardboard's latest book idea.

Around the majors:

Astros: Designated Brandon Backe for assignment.
Blue Jays: Placed catcher Rod Barajas on the DL with a hamstring strain.
Cardinals: Acquired Mark DeRosa from the Indians for pitcher Chris Perez and a PTBNL, and are expected to place Khalil Greene on the DL as he continues to deal with anxiety issues.
Mariners: Designated catcher Jamie Burke for assignment for the third time this season, and acquired Ryan Langerhans from the Nationals for infielder Mike Morse.
Orioles: Placed Koji Uehara on the DL with elbow tendinitis.
Rangers: Placed pitcher Matt Harrison on the DL with shoulder soreness.
Rays: Designated reliever Winston Abreu for assignment.
Tigers: Placed Nate Robertson on the DL with a mass in his left elbow.

Manny Parra had a rough outing in AAA last night, allowing seven runs (six earned) on five hits and five walks in just 4.2 innings. Meanwhile, Pirates starter Ian Snell reacted to his demotion the way we'd hoped Parra would react to his. Snell struck out 17 in his AAA debut, including 13 in a row at one point.

Not everyone was having a hard time making contact, though: in the California League, Lake Elsinore defeated (former Brewer affiliate) High Desert 33-18.

Oh, and happy birthday to Hernan Iribarren (25) and Cutter Dykstra (20).

Drink up.