SB Nation - Hector Luna

Marlins sign six minor league Free Agents

craig — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 15:33:16 -0000

The Marlins signed six minor league free agents to see if their is a diamond in the ruff.

The team on Friday announced the signings of six six-year free agents -- right-hander Kasey Olenberger, outfielder Brandon Tripp, right-hander John Fulton, right-hander Jesse Foppert, utility player Vinny Rottino and infielder Hector Luna.

The six are Minor League free agents who will be invited to big league camp in February.

There is next to no cost to signing them, and the team's only obligation is to carry them through Spring Training. Most of the time it doesn't workout, but every now and then it does. We will see how they do in Jupiter.

Another Look at the Bargain Bin...or patching holes with duck tape

clack — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 04:39:51 -0000

Bargain shopping seems like the topic of the day for a Black Friday. Except this blog is about the Astros, and bargain shopping means something more like Goodwill, rather than Sak's or Macy's. The Astros say they are trying to improve the team and cutting the payroll at the same, all of which seems paradoxical when you realize that they have to work around the edges of a ton of sunk costs. In order to do that, the team probably has to patch some holes with duck tape in order to save money to add or keep a player with more impact.

Recently I mentioned an article at Fangraphs by Dave Cameron which referenced a few notable minor league free agents. Minor league free agents are the ultimate bargain bin; some older minor league players out there can be productive big league players; however, it's largely a gamble, since we don't know for sure who will succeed. OremLK has been looking at Rule 5 draft candidates, which is interesting and helpful. However, minor league free agents hold one advantage over Rule 5 picks, in that they do not have to be kept on the roster for a full season, and can be sent to AAA, if they are agreeable to doing so. The disadvantage is that many of the minor league free agents are older than Rule 5 picks---sometimes a lot older. However, it is a fairly low risk investment to sign several minor league free agents and allow them to compete for a big league job in spring training.

I took another look at the players on Baseball America's minor league free agent list. I'll talk about some interesting players on that list after the jump.

Shelley Duncan, OF, 1B.

He isn't even on the list, because he wasn't made available until last Friday as the Yankees finaiized their 40 man roster, by outrighting Duncan to the Yankees' AAA club. Duncan has rejected his assignment, and plans to look for a major league job. At the age of 29, Duncan is more likely to get offers for pinch hit / reserve outfielder jobs. I've previously mentioned his name in my comments at TCB, because I think he would be a good candidate for a reserve outfielder position with the Astros, with the ability to provide inexpensive power off the bench. Duncan has consistently exhibited offense and power in AAA, and was named MVP of the International League this year. I wouldn't be suprised if the Cardinals invite him to spring training, since his father is pitching coach Dave Duncan. Duncan is well liked by Yankees fans for his aggressiveness and enthusiasm, earning him the nickname "Slam" for his celebrations and high fives on the bench. A number of New York blog and media pieces have recently wished him the best in finding a major league job. LoHud reporter Craig Jennings says:

I keep thinking of Garrett Jones, who I watched rake in the International League for years without getting a shot with the Twins. Then the Pirates picked him up and he became a Rookie of the Year candidate. I have no idea whether Duncan can do something similar, but I know he put up Triple-A numbers as good as or better than Jones. He just wasn’t a match for the Yankees organization.

Ready Made Third Base Platoon?

Okay, I'm joking--a little bit anyway--when I suggest that two minor league free agents could form an effective third base platoon. But my point is that both of these 3d basemen in AAA were very productive, and you would think that one of them might turn out to form one end of a platoon for the Astros; and at the least could be more productive than Chris Johnson.

I previously discussed Reuben Gotay, who was highlighted in Dave Cameron's article. The 26 year old former second baseman posted a .877 OPS for the D-Backs' AAA team, with superb plate discipline that led to .427 OBP. Hector Luna, a 29 year old former major league utility infielder, posted huge numbers at 3d base for the Dodgers' AAA affiliate last year. Here is his triple slash:.351, .415, .610, 1.025. Yes, that's an OPS over a 1.0. And, yes, Albuquerque is an offensive oriented ballpark---but even neutralizing his stats puts his OPS well over .900. Late last season, the SBN blog True Blue LA pleaded with the Dodgers to call up Luna:

For those who want to just attribute what Luna is doing to the PCL fine, but they were saying the same thing about Jake Fox back in June. The difference is that Fox is a lousy catcher trying to play 3rd base, while Luna is an ex major league middle infielder playing 3rd base. When we tried to find a RHH who could punish LHP we found very few major league bench players who fit the bill. Luna is crushing LHP with an OPS against them sitting at 1.399. He's also produced an OPS over 1.000 at both home and away. I recently read a comment attributing his excellent season to playing at home for the Isotopes but the splits would seem to negate that argument. The man is simply hitting wherever he plays against both Left and Right handed pitchers...I'm saying that Hector Luna deserves a shot to strengthen our bench. Just because a man is 29 years old does not mean he can't resume his major league career. It doesn't happen often but history is peppered with players like Olmedo Saenz and Geronimo Berroa who got late starts and became excellent part time players into their 30's.

Why did I start off calling these two guys a ready made platoon? The switch hitter Gotay has .304 batting average and .904 OPS versus RHP. Hector Luna hit .398 with a 1.248 OPS versus LHP. Both guys show some power, and lots of on base ability...at least against AAA pitchers.

Pitchers

Fernando Hernandez is a 25 year old righthanded relief pitcher in the White Sox organization. He was previously picked up by Oakland in the Rule 5 draft several years ago, made the A's opening day roster, but was returned to the White Sox after pitching only a few innings at the major league level. Hernandez started the year in AA, and then moved up to AAA, where he was equally effective. His combined 2009 stats: 2.91 FIP, 1.71 ERA in AA and 1.59 ERA in AAA, 0.99 WHIP, 8.79 K/9, 3.18 BB/9.. He strikes out 1 in 4 batters he faces, and walks only about 1 in 10 batters. He generates a good groundball rate, reaching 60% in AAA. The diminutive (5-11) reliever has been effective against both RHB and LHB, with a .190 batting average by lefties and a .179 batting average by righties. Based on his stats, there is little not to like about this relief pitcher.

Erick Threets is a 29 year old lefthanded relief pitcher in the Dodgers' organization. The Astros probably will be in the market for another LH relief pitcher, particularly if Wesley Wright is converted to a starting pitcher. Threets previously pitched in the Giants system, including a brief but successful major league stint with the Giants in 2008. His 3.81 FIP and 1.52 ERA in AAA was particularly impressive when you take into account that he pitched at an offense-friendly ballpark in Albuquerque. His 63% groundball rate is very good, and somewhat unusual for a lefthander. He strikes out 17% of the batters he faces and walks only 9%.

Hyang-Nam Choi is another relief pitcher for the Dodgers' AAA affiliate last year. Normally I wouldn't mention a 38 year old minor leaguer, but Choi is an unusual case, since he has experience pitching professionally in both Korea and Japan. His stats at Albuquerque are quite impressive. In 61 innings, he had a 3.25 FIP, a 2.34 ERA, a 2.81 RA/9, with a 12 K/9 rate and a 3.06 BB rate, which looks even better when we consider that he pitched in Albuquerque. He struck out 32% of the batters he faced and walked only 8%. He is more effective against RHB. The Cardinals invited him to spring training last year, but he didn't make the big league team, and then was signed by the Dodgers for pitching depth.

2010 CHONE Projections Are Out

Eric Stephen — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 16:09:38 -0000

More photos » by Matt Slocum - AP

Andre Ethier and Manny Ramirez join fellow outfielder Matt Kemp as the only Dodgers projected by CHONE to have an OPS of .800 or above in 2010.

Browse more photos »

Last month we looked at the projections from the 2010 Bill James Handbook. Now, the second set of projections are in, from Sean Smith of the wonderful blog Anaheim Angels All The Way. His full list of CHONE projections can be found here.

I added these projections to the previous Bill James projections, and also took a look back to 2009 to see how accurate last year's set of predictions were. The 2009 and 2010 CHONE projections are highlighted below.

I also threw in prOPS from The Hardball Times, short for "predicted OPS," which is "a formula for predicting what a player's OPS is likely to be in the future based on his batted balls, strikeouts, home runs and walks," to see if there was any luck based on batted balls.

Infield
Russell Martin
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 Bill James	.292	.390	.439	.829
2009 CHONE	.286	.384	.434	.818
2009 actual	.250	.352	.329	.680
2009 prOPS	.284	.382	.396	.778
2010 Bill James	.272	.372	.396	.768
2010 CHONE	.273	.364	.407	.771
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

James Loney
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 Bill James	.295	.351	.443	.794
2009 CHONE	.294	.355	.446	.801
2009 actual	.281	.357	.399	.756
2009 prOPS	.298	.371	.438	.809
2010 Bill James	.294	.360	.440	.800
2010 CHONE	.292	.354	.444	.798
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

Orlando Hudson
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 Bill James	.270	.342	.392	.734
2009 CHONE	.276	.353	.407	.760
2009 actual	.283	.357	.417	.774
2009 prOPS	.277	.352	.391	.742
2010 Bill James	.280	.353	.409	.762
2010 CHONE	.270	.342	.395	.737
2010 status	Type A free agent

Ronnie Belliard
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 Bill James	.266	.331	.405	.736
2009 CHONE	.272	.331	.419	.750
2009 actual	.277	.325	.451	.776
2009 prOPS	.281	.328	.466	.794
2010 Bill James	.265	.322	.416	.738
2010 CHONE	.256	.313	.404	.717
2010 status	Type B free agent
Belliard's stats include time w/Nats

Rafael Furcal
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 Bill James	.286	.354	.409	.763
2009 CHONE	.284	.358	.412	.770
2009 actual	.269	.335	.375	.711
2009 prOPS	.278	.343	.388	.730
2010 Bill James	.278	.346	.391	.737
2010 CHONE	.273	.342	.388	.730
2010 status	under contract

Casey Blake
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 Bill James	.259	.334	.429	.763
2009 CHONE	.259	.336	.439	.775
2009 actual	.280	.363	.468	.832
2009 prOPS	.287	.372	.473	.845
2010 Bill James	.257	.337	.426	.762
2010 CHONE	.256	.331	.430	.761
2010 status	under contract

Outfield
Manny Ramirez
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 Bill James	.304	.406	.556	.962
2009 CHONE	.291	.408	.556	.964
2009 actual	.290	.418	.531	.949
2009 prOPS	.314	.439	.557	.995
2010 Bill James	.296	.406	.537	.943
2010 CHONE	.272	.368	.501	.869
2010 status	under contract

Matt Kemp
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 Bill James	.311	.360	.496	.856
2009 CHONE	.299	.353	.476	.829
2009 actual	.297	.352	.490	.842
2009 prOPS	.279	.335	.478	.813
2010 Bill James	.311	.365	.508	.873
2010 CHONE	.297	.351	.492	.843
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

Andre Ethier
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 Bill James	.303	.374	.492	.866
2009 CHONE	.292	.366	.468	.834
2009 actual	.272	.361	.508	.869
2009 prOPS	.292	.378	.520	.898
2010 Bill James	.288	.368	.500	.868
2010 CHONE	.281	.356	.488	.844
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

Juan Pierre
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 Bill James	.292	.348	.356	.704
2009 CHONE	.283	.328	.357	.685
2009 actual	.308	.365	.392	.792
2009 prOPS	.306	.362	.376	.738
2010 Bill James	.291	.342	.355	.697
2010 CHONE	.287	.335	.369	.704
2010 status	under contract

You can get the full list of Dodgers' CHONE projections here.

Looking at the CHONE projections, I thought the mythical battle for fourth outfielder was interesting:

2010 CHONE Projections
4th Outfielder	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Mitch Jones	.228	.306	.435	.741
Hector Luna	.261	.324	.408	.732
Xavier Paul	.259	.323	.390	.713
Jamie Hoffmann	.255	.328	.379	.707
Juan Pierre	.287	.335	.369	.704

Jason Schmidt visits the Fountain of Youth in Albuquerque

Phil Gurnee — Sat, 27 Jun 2009 17:56:38 -0000

Ponce de Leon should have headed to Albuquerque and not wasted time in Florida. Many a retread has found themselves pitching and hitting for the Isotopes this year and the results have been more then what you'd expect from your normal NRI (Non Roster Invitee) performance.

Eric Milton dipped into the Isotope pool back in April and after seeing his arm rejuvenated beyond our wildest dreams finds himself part of the Dodger rotation. Shawn Estes tried to resurrect his career and while the results were encouraging he ultimately retired. Before surgeries Scott Strickland was one of the better setup men in baseball but hasn't been able to recapture his skills after the surgeries, after shaking off some rust in April he's now the Isotope closer and has only given up a run in three of his last twenty appearances. Old Man Choi is putting up some staggering numbers that has to have the front office taking notice.

Hector Luna, Dee Brown, and Mitch Jones are all among the Pacific Coast League League Leaders. As great as Mitch Jones was doing to earn his call-up, Hector Luna has been even better. I don't understand the comparisons of Luna to Maza but that is a story for another day.

It is not just the old and in-firmed who have found the Isotope pool to their liking. Top prospect James McDonald couldn't find the strike zone for the Dodgers but once back with the Isotopes he found his A game very very quickly. Scott Elbert has been striking out a bazillion AA hitters but his control has been a problem his whole career. In his first start with the Isotopes he not only pitched a brilliant one hitter, he also only walked one batter.

However all that pales compared to what happened on Friday night. Jason Schmidt was signed to the largest Dodger contract by average annual value in history back in 2007 and has yet to make a meaningful pitch since he signed that contract. His tale is well know to even the most ignorant Dodger fan. Arm surgery, and arm surgery again. Failed rehab time after time. Even this year start and stop has been the mantra. With all that history no one expects anything from Jason Schmidt before his contract ends this year.

It may be time to readjust those expectations. Sure it was just one start but it was the first start that lets the light shine in on an otherwise dreary Dodger career. For seven and two thirds innings last night, Schmidt pushed back time and pitched like it was 2006. Could this be the real start to his comeback? I don't know how hard he threw or any of the particulars, I just know the results, and that is what I'll hang my hopes on. Hopefully he'll be able to lift his arm tomorrow.

Tale of the Tape: Dodgers' Sixth Infielder

Eric Stephen — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 01:09:55 -0000

Tony Jackson of the LA Daily News today reported what seemed to be inevitable: Tony Abreu is out of the running for a backup infielder spot on the big club. Jackson reported the following quote from manager Joe Torre:

``To be honest with you, because he hasn't played in a year and a half, even if he were completely healthy, he probably would need to go play (regularly in the minors),'' Torre said. ``He hasn't done a lot of that lately.''

It's a real shame that Abreu simply hasn't been healthy enough to take advantage of many opportunities over the last couple of years.

As it stands now, the infield appears set, with starters James Loney, Orlando Hudson, Rafael Furcal, and Casey Blake joined by backup Mark Loretta, who figures to see time at every infield spot except shortstop this season. Given that Joe Torre plans to rest Rafael Furcal roughly once a week, the sixth infielder needs to be able to play shortstop.

Of the final candidates reported by Jackson, the ones with the ability to play shortstop are Juan Castro, Blake DeWitt, Chin-Lung Hu, and Hector Luna. Let's take a closer look:

Juan Castro is hitting very well this spring. However, don't be fooled. Here's what I said about Castro last month:

However, even if he lives up to his defensive reputation, Castro simply cannot hit. In the last five years, of all the players with at least 1,000 plate appearances (there are 357 of them in all), only John McDonald has produced worse than the anemic 59 OPS+ by Castro. Castro has had a plate appearance in 14 different seasons. Outside of the .400 OBP he pulled off in his 5-PA first season (1995), Castro has never had an OBP higher than .290.

Blake DeWitt seems to excel at doing things ahead of his time. He made the majors ahead of schedule, and showed improvement by the end of the year. Why not try him at shortstop? He has shown amazing range at third base, and was passable at second base, so perhaps a game at shortstop every 7-10 days isn't so bad. He's easily the best hitter of the bunch. Here's the average offensive projections for the the unfearsome foursome:

Player	BA	OBP	SLG
Castro	.221	.226	.315
DeWitt	.260	.324	.397
Hu	.255	.304	.370
Luna	.256	.310	.381

Thanks to the wonderful Fangraphs, I averaged out projections from Bill James, CHONE, Marcel, Oliver, and Zips, except for Luna for which there were no Bill James projections. The best point for DeWitt not winning the utility infielder spot is that he might benefit more from playing every day in Albuquerque.

Chin-Lung Hu is probably the best defender of the four players in question, but his vision problems last year really put a damper on his status. If the backup spot was more defensive-oriented -- someone to come in during the late innings but rarely start, Hu might be the best choice. I'd like to see Hu show he can hit again before I put him on the roster. Between Hu and DeWitt, I'd rather have DeWitt, but I'd take Hu over either Castro or Luna.

Hector Luna managed only one plate appearance in 2008. Coming up with the Cardinals, Luna could hit a little, putting up a .276/.336/.398, 90 OPS+ from 2006-2008 with the Redbirds. Since being traded to Cleveland in 2006, Luna has plummeted to .253/.287/.359, 67 OPS+ in the majors. Defensively, Luna leaves a lot to be desired. Here are his career UZR/150, again courtesy of Fangraphs:

Pos	UZR/150
2B	-7.6
3B	-7.6
SS	-15.6

To me, it's not worth making a roster move to add Castro or Luna, neither of whom is currently on the full 40-man roster. My choice for the sixth infielder spot is Blake DeWitt. Who's your pick?

Poll

Who should be the Dodgers' sixth infielder?

Juan Castro

40 votes

Blake DeWitt

773 votes

Chin-Lung Hu

119 votes

Hector Luna

14 votes

946 votes | Poll has closed

Recap of Dodgers / Rangers

meercatjohn — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 00:27:37 -0000

On a day when Jason Schmidt finally made it to a major league mound, it was the offense that was the story of the game as the Dodgers prevailed 13 - 7. Xavier Paul had three hits in his first three at bats to trigger the offense, but it was the light hitting middle infielders for the Dodgers who socked it to the Texas Rangers. DeWitt, Hu, Castro, and Luna combined to go 8 for 13, with two home runs (Castro/Luna), 5 runs batted in, and 6 runs scored.

Three pitchers went today who are in the battle for the 5th spot in the rotation. Jason Schmidt almost finished his two innings unscatched, but big time catching prospect Tyle Teagarden touched him for a three run jack with two out. Claudio Vargas did nothing to augment his cause as he gave up three home runs ( Andruw Jones, Boggs, and Blalock). Eric Milton tried to worm his way back into the hunt with three solid innings of work but Joe Torre told Tony Jackson that it was Schmidt's job to lose. Which may not be that hard to do considering it is Jason Schmidt.

With our left handed relief pitchers getting batted around like a drum (Leach, Garate, Elbert, Randolf) Erick Threets was the only one to go today and he got the only two hitters he faced. Not sure if Beimel is on speed dial but the all time Dodger lefty setup man might be an upgrade.

Victor Garate stayed in camp in an ill fated attempt to win a job on the major league roster instead of pitching for Venezuela. Based on the box score yesterday he would have been welcome on Venezuela pitching staff.

Use this link to keep track of the Dodger spring training stats.

August 18, 2006: Andy's Greatest Game

afh4 — Fri, 20 Feb 2009 06:04:36 -0000

The Indians rolled into town hot-scorching hot. In 7 of the last 9 our battling Tribe had claimed victory. Now this one? This one was for all the marbles. Could the Indians, 54-66, claim one more victory? Could they get to the mark that had been unthinkable only days before, 55-66?

Like any game, it was impossible to know. We did know it was going to be tough; staring Eric Wedge dead in the face was Legend-In-The-Making Joe Maddon and his 48-73 Tampa Bay Devil Rays.

That's right, Devil Rays. This was before they went all driven snow, wedding gown, Longoria pure. This is back when they still had bite, swagger-the kind of swagger you get when you trot out Damon Hollins to start in half your games. Yeah, that Damon Hollins! --------->

The action was hot from the very beginning. In the top of the first Casey Fossum (umm, maybe you've heard of him?) was absolutely mowing them down. Sizemore grounds out to first base unassisted. No help required for the slick fielding Travis Lee. Jason Micheals, where he's most comfortable, in the two hole? WHOOOSH! Strikes out swinging. Wow. Bring it, Fossum, bring it. We Clevelanders like a worthy adversary.

Then, it happened. The unstoppable pitcher met the unmovable hitter. As the nation turned it's eyes, Fossum stared in for the sign. Travis "Pronkey" Hafner snorted, eyes wild. The pitch came flying out of Fossum hands-old timers still talk about this pitch.

It's too fast to be hit! It's supersonic Fossum stuff!

No it's not fast-it's a curveball! A helluva curveball!

WOWIE IT'S GONE!

And just like that, the Devil Rays were in the hole staring up at the big man-the man with all the answers: C.C. Sabathia. And so, the score stayed 1-0 through two batters in the first inning, when Ben Zorbist grounded out and drove home Rocco "DiMaggio" Baldelli.

Things stayed knotted until the top of the third when, finally, the man that Eric Wedge would later call "the best leadoff hitter in the 9 spot I've ever seen", Andy Marte stepped up. You've got to realize, up to this point, Fossum had been just incredible. He'd retired 6 batters, with some other stuff happening in between them. He'd finished the last inning by inducing a groundout from maybe the best bottom of the order hitter in baseball-Hector Luna.

But today? Today wasn't to be Fossum's day. It was Andy's day. Andy's great day. He put that big, sweet swing of his to use and just Billy Squired it out to deep centerfield. When asked what he called that swing after the game Marte would say "Ahh, umm, not the really slow one. A faster one."

Fast forward a couple of plays and there's Marte, touching home plate, driven in by a "Pronkney" single. Marte had set the table so that the big dogs could eat. Unselfishly, he'd scored a run to help the team. By the end of the inning it was Indians 3-1 and one name was on everyone's lips: Andy Manuel Marte.

The two old pitching warhorses, long-time AL rivals, remained locked in combat for the next couple of innings. It seemed like the game might end with just that score-in fact, some fans actually left in the fourth, assured of the Cleveland victory and trying to beat Tampa traffic.

Then, the top of the fifth rolled around and everyone who had stayed realized why they had. He strolled back into the box-do I even have to specify who he was? It was the player that somone at the game described as "looking pretty alright." It was Andy and he put that same swing on the ball to the same effect: deep CF, double. If everyone wasn't buzzing already, they were now.

Now, this next part sounds unbelievable but everyone who was there at the game, the 15,405 paid attendees inside of "The Trop", swear to its veracity. Marte stood at second base and pointed at Grady Sizemore, now in the batter's box. Some thought he was saying "I'm coming for your leadoff job" but others who knew Marte well knew better.

It was more of what Clevelanders would fall in love with over his next 110 odd appearances in two years-the famous "Marte magnanimity." Andy was saying "Hey Grady, drive me in. Get yourself a RBI."

I'm sure I don't have to tell you that the third basemen, giddy like a house cat who knows he doesn't have to live in Buffalo anymore, was crossing home plate soon. Unselfishly, Marte later credited Grady with the RBI saying "Grady got that RBI, so I was able to score."

It seemed like a victory lap, icing on the cake when Marte finally took some credit for himself by belting a leadoff homerun in the top of the 7th, a homerun that retrosheet would later classify as a "Fly Ball" in one of the all time comic understatements. A "Fly Ball"? This was a deep "Fly Ball"; one that left the park in fact! Old timers still talk about that homerun!

That ball left the ballpark that one time. I'm so dusty.

When Matte hit that homerun off Facem, it counted for one run.

We're never going back to Tampa after we got arressted at Gasparilla. What a hellhole. And beer isn't even that cheap!

Then Marte struck out looking in the top of the 9th, Brian Sikorski and Jason Davis combined to blow the 5-3 lead and the Indians lost.

But no matter! The headlines the next day were surely not about how this game was emblematic of the Tribe's inability to provide run support to a Cy Young candidate or about one of the most disappointing seasons in recent memory or even about how novel Joe Maddon's glasses still seemed in 2006. No! They were about Andy Marte and his day in the sun. They were about the greatest game in Andy Marte's career.

Shine on, you crazy diamond.

Spring Training Jobs Up For Grabs: Orlando Hudson Take II Edition

Eric Stephen — Wed, 11 Feb 2009 16:00:11 -0000

With the signing of Orlando Hudson, I thought it would be prudent to revisit our look at what jobs are at stake this spring...

For the most part, barring injury, the Dodgers have a pretty set roster heading into spring training. Since ~~pitchers and catchers report Saturday~~ spring games start Wednesday, let's take a look at the probable 25-man roster, and the spring training battles that will round out the edges of the roster.

The Locks

Catchers (2)
Russell Martin, Brad Ausmus

Infielders (5)
James Loney, Orlando Hudson, Casey Blake, Rafael Furcal, Mark Loretta

Outfielders (5)
Manny Ramirez*, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Juan Pierre, Delwyn Young

Starting Pitchers (4)
Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda, Clayton Kershaw, Randy Wolf

Relief Pitchers (4)
Jonathan Broxton, Hong-Chih Kuo, Cory Wade, Guillermo Mota

*Assuming Manny eventually signs of course

That's 20 of 25 spots that can safely be written in pen. Here's how the other five spots will be filled:

Utility Infielder

1) Tony Abreu
As a 22-year old in 2007, Abreu put up a .309 OBP, 19 points higher than Castro's career high. However, Abreu's first move might have to be simply introducing himself to Ned Colletti, Joe Torre and the rest of the coaching staff. Abreu hasn't been healthy in a year and a half, so it's quite likely that he has been forgotten. Last week, Diamond Leung of the Press-Enterprise reported this when Colletti brought up the club's infield situation:

Colletti also would be interested in another infielder "if the right player came along," and he mentioned the Dodgers already have Mark Loretta, Chin-lung Hu, Ivan DeJesus Jr., Hector Luna and Juan Castro.

Notice anyone missing there? Abreu might be the best of the middle infield bunch, but he's only an afterthought right now in the organization's eyes. He's got a lot of work to do.

Since spring practice has started, Abreu has indeed started to make his mark. Again, per Diamond Leung of the Press-Enterprise:

The Tony Abreu lovefest continues. "To me, Abreu is really a perfect fit for a utility guy. But we have to be comfortable that he's going to be there for you. He's got high marks right now. He seems to be a different guy, too."

It seems right now like the utlity infielder spot is Abreu's to lose.

2) Juan Castro
On the plus side, the soon-to-be 37-year old Castro can still pick it. Or at least he has the reputation for being able to field. Castro seems to be slipping a bit:

Fielding at Shortstop
Year	Innings	Plus/Minus	UZR	FRAA
2005	568.2	---	7.9	15
2006	548.2	+5	2.3	2
2007	89.1	+1	-0.3	-1
2008	408.2	-4	-4.2	-1

However, even if he lives up to his defensive reputation, Castro simply cannot hit. In the last five years, of all the players with at least 1,000 plate appearances (there are 357 of them in all), only John McDonald has produced worse than the anemic 59 OPS+ by Castro. Castro has had a plate appearance in 14 different seasons. Outside of the .400 OBP he pulled off in his 5-PA first season (1995), Castro has never had an OBP higher than .290.

Castro is on a minor-league deal, and will earn $700,000 if he makes the big club. If he's not on the 40-man roster by June 30, he can ask for his release. ~~Sadly, he might be the favorite for the position~~. A few weeks ago, I thought Castro had the inside track for this spot, but today I feel Abreu will have every chance to win the spot.

3) Chin-Lung Hu
Hu made the opening day roster as the utility man last season, and even started 23 of 30 games at SS once Rafael Furcal went down with injuries in May. However, Hu only hit .132/.175/.197 during that span, and looked completely lost at the plate. Hu later claimed to have vision problems, which caused him problems all year. It was quite a fall for the Dodgers' 3rd-best prospect per Baseball America in 2008. Last year's Prospect Handbook gives us the best reason for Hu to win the utility spot:

His well-above average defensive package -- with the arm strength, footwork, and hands of a Gold Glover -- always will be his best asset.

Hu is a defensive wizard, but he might be better served by playing everyday in AAA. Kensai of Fire Ned Colletti Now has a very informative profile of Hu here.

4) Blake DeWitt
Up until a few days ago, the second base job appeared to belong to DeWitt, with perhaps a healthy dose of Mark Loretta against LHP. While DeWitt would make a fine utility man at either 2B or 3B, his presence is on the roster is redundant with Mark Loretta. If DeWitt could play SS, he might have a better shot at making the club. It's important to remember DeWitt is still only 23 years old, and playing everyday at AAA for one year wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.

5) Ivan DeJesus, Jr.
DeJesus is another defensive wizard at SS, with very good plate discipline (through age 21, he has a .385 OBP in four minor league seasons, despite only limited power -- .369 SLG). Some of those doubles (he hit 43 in the last two years) could turn into homers as DeJesus matures. He was invited to big league camp, but like Hu would be better served playing everyday in the minors.

6) Hector Luna, Luis Maza, et al
They are part of the "If Wilson Valdez made it, why can't I?" club.

5th Starter

1) Jason Schmidt
If he's healthy at all, Schmidt will claim this spot. Then again, if he's healthy the devil will probably lace up his ice skates. Schmidt, with one win as a Dodger and one season left on his contract, needs seven wins in 2009 to pass Darren Dreifort on the dollars per win scale:

Pitcher	Contract	Salary	Wins	$$$ per Win
Darren Dreifort	2001-2005	$55 million	9	$6.1 million
Jason Schmidt	2007-2009	$27.5 million*	1*	$27.5 million

*Schmidt's total contract is $47 million, so 8 total wins will push Schmidt to $5.875 million per win

2) Claudio Vargas
Vargas has battled injuries his entire career, never pitching more than 167.2 innings in a season. Right elbow pain limited Vargas to 37 innings last season with the Mets. Like Schmidt, if healthy Vargas will have a spot on the pitching staff, whether it be as the 5th starter or long relief man. The Dodgers are hoping for a Chan Ho Park redux here. Vargas is set to make the major league minimum of $400,000, but can earn $1.4 million in incentives based on games started and days on the active roster.

3) Ramon Troncoso
While Cory Wade got the bulk of the attention in the "rookie in the bullpen" department (much of it deserved), Troncoso was a pleasant surprise last season, riding his power sinker to strike out a batter per inning, and post a 3.00 FIP. The Dodgers made the decision to convert Troncoso to a starter, and could end up reaping the benefits of it very soon. David Cameron of Fangraphs called Troncoso the next big thing:

No matter where he ends up, Troncoso has shown all the skills necessary to be a terrific major league pitcher. Just on the strength of his sinker, he’s going to be a nightmare for right-handed hitters, and his slider and curve have made enough progress that he’s a legitimate option as a potential relief ace or a starting pitcher. For whatever reason, the world hasn’t jumped on the Ramon Troncoso bandwagon yet, but I’d imagine that will change twelve months from now.

Whether he makes the rotation right out of spring training or a few months down the road, Troncoso could make significant impact on the staff. I would imagine if he doesn't win the 5th starter job out of spring training, Troncoso will end up starting every 5th day for either Albuquerque or Chattanooga.

4) Eric Stults
Stults had a couple things going for him:

1) In 14 starts over the last 3 years, Stults has put up a 4.08 ERA in just over 5.3 IP per start, while averaging 3.24 BB/9 and 6.84 K/9.

2) In 20 minor league starts for Las Vegas in the hitter-happy Pacific Coast League last year, Stults put up a 3.82 ERA and averaged 7.8 K/9

However, Joe Torre hasn't taken a liking to Stults, banishing him for two months after only one bad start in Coors Field, despite a relatively strong showing in his five previous starts. Stults seems destined to be the insurance starter at AAA, but the Dodgers could do worse for a 5th starter.

If I had to guess, I say Stults will make at least 10 starts for the Dodgers this year, especially since the injury-prone Schmidt and Vargas are ahead of him on the depth chart.

5) Shawn Estes
Signed to a minor league deal, Estes seems like a long shot to make the club. Say what you will about this pitching staff, but the Dodgers have cornered the market on pitchers who put up a 4.74 ERA for the Padres in 2008:

Pitcher	IP	ER	ERA
Randy Wolf	119.2	63	4.74
Shawn Estes	43.2	23	4.74

6) Eric Milton
Signed to a minor league deal, the lefty Milton hasn't pitched in a game since May 8, 2007. He has been recovering from Tommy John surgery in the last year and a half. Since Milton came into the majors in 1998, only Scott Elarton and Jose Lima have given up more HR/9 than Eric Milton.

The Bullpen (3 Spots)

If both Schmidt and Vargas are healthy, I suspect one of them will end up in the bullpen, with Vargas the most likely in the pen. Stults and Estes also have a shot to be the long man as well. Here's a look at the rest:

1) A free agent, yet unsigned
Per Diamond Leung of the Press-Enterprise, Colletti is still looking to sign another veteran in the pen:

"Doesn't make any difference if it's left-handed or right-handed. It'll give us a little more of a foundation and a deeper club."

Past reports have linked the Dodgers to lefties Dennys Reyes , Will Ohman, ~~or Luis Ayala~~, or maybe even the return of Joe Beimel.

2) James McDonald
A starter for most of his minor league career, the Dodgers seem to like him more out of the bullpen, based on his increased velocity last fall in all of 11.1 innings. Baseball America rated McDonald as having the best changeup and best control in the Dodgers' farm system. I tend to think McDonald would be better served as a starter, but if he can contribute out of the bullpen to start the season I'm OK with that.

3) Scott Elbert
Another one-time starter, Elbert was more or less forced to the bullpen due to a myriad of injuries as a minor leaguer. Elbert has a plus fastball and curveball, and Baseball America said last year:

He profiles as a No. 2 or 3 starter, and he could wind up as a top-flight closer if moved to the bullpen.

Given Kuo's injury history, Elbert has an excellent chance to make the roster as the second lefty in the bullpen, especially if Reyes, Ayala, or somebody else isn't signed.

4) Greg Miller
Miller is intriguing because he has all the talent in the world -- before his injuries he was one of the top prospects in the game. ~~Since he is out of options, the Dodgers would have to expose him to waivers in order to send him to the minors if he doesn't make the club in the spring~~. Thanks to astute reader Silverwidow for pointing this out, but Miller actually has a rare 4th option year so he still has a year before the tipping point. I think Miller will get every opportunity to add his live left arm to the Dodger pen, but it will be a longshot.

Kensai has another excellent breakdown of Miller here (you really should check out his site, Fire Ned Colletti Now, for more great information like this).

If Miller makes the club, that would be a great story, but he'll have to improve his control in order to sniff the majors. Over the last four years, Miller has struck out 9.88 batters per nine innings, but the excitement is dampened by the fact that he has also walked 224 batters in his last 225 innings (8.96 per 9).

5) Yhency Brazoban, Tanyon Sturtze, Jeff Weaver, Eric Milton, et al
With all the young talent, it would appear the chances of these non-roster invitees are quite slim. Vargas and Estes seem more likely to take the veteran roles than any of these guys. However, we might need another bullpen catcher...

I am assuming a 12-man pitching staff coming out of the gate, due to the need for a 5th starter right away, but that of course could change.

Well, enough talk. It's time for the spring battles to begin. We can all sit back and relax with today's secret ingredient.

Wednesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Wed, 10 Dec 2008 16:23:23 -0000

Some things to read while trying to estimate how much Wooting off one could do with $160 million.

So you've probably heard from here, there and everywhere that CC Sabathia has signed with the Yankees. The Bloomberg story I just linked says the deal is for 6 years and at least $140 million, but Ken Rosenthal is reporting the deal is worth $160 million over seven years. I woke up this morning feeling like something was wrong...something didn't smell right. Turns out Gorman was sick during the night. But even if that hadn't been the case, I could have blamed it on this.

With the sweepstakes over, this may very well be the last Sabathia Smorgasbord:

Bill Hall spent the weekend with Sabathia but "resisted the urge" to try to convince Sabathia to remain in Milwaukee. Apparently helping the team wasn't an option during the offseason either.
Brewed Sports projects the Brewers as a 74-win team without Sabathia. That strikes me as pretty low. I'd put them at about 81 right now.
Sabernomics says Sabathia was the second most valuable pitcher over the last three seasons, behind Brandon Webb.
It is about the money, stupid has Sabathia's career numbers against his future AL East opponents.

So, moving on, the Yankees currently own the 26th pick in June's draft, and that pick will eventually belong to the Brewers UNLESS the Yankees also sign Mark Teixiera, who ranked higher in Elias' free agent rankings.Nationals Journal quotes Ken Rosenthal as saying the Angels have all but given up on re-signing him, and the Nationals are expected to make him the highest offer. Seamheads says he could be worth more than $200 million over 10 years in Washington.

So what now? Well, Doug Melvin appears to be dangling his feet in the closer market, as he's rumored to be pursuing Brian Fuentes and the Brewers are one of three teams in discussions with the Mariners regarding J.J. Putz. Ben Brown of Bleacher Report says trading J.J. Hardy for J.J. Putz makes sense in his book. That book should never have been written. The Mariners and Brewers have reportedly discussed both Putz and Prince Fielder, but not in the same deal.

Here's some interesting gossip: Might the Brewers also be interested in a catcher? The Orioles traded Ramon Hernandez to the Reds yesterday, but before they did, they apparently heard an offer from the Brewers for his services.

Bob Howry's recent contract with the Giants includes an incentive for games finished. Actually, so does Jorge Julio's new one with the Brewers. Over at Recondite Baseball, TheJay takes a look at why teams use games finished as an incentive base, and the odds a pitcher can reach an incentive for games finished without actually being a closer.

Some of us have been waiting for this news for months, although we probably didn't expect it to come from the Northeast Mississippi Daily Journal. They're reporting Bill Hall could be on the trading block.

Elsewhere on the Hot Stove:

Astros: Reportedly met with Randy Johnson at the winter meetings.
Blue Jays: The team is reportedly targeting a 2009 payroll of $84 million, down from $97 million in 2008.
Cubs: Jake Peavy seems to think he'll be a Cub soon, but the Cubs don't seem to know that.
D-Backs: Reportedly are prepared to join the legions of others with a contract offer out to Arthur Rhodes.
Dodgers: Signed Hector Luna to a minor league deal.
Indians: Are reportedly near agreement on a two or three year deal with Kerry Wood.
Mets: The team may bring Pedro Martinez back after all and have also met with Raul Ibanez.
Phillies: May have reached an impasse in negotiations with Jamie Moyer, who is reportedly seeking a two year deal.
Rangers: Nolan Ryan met with Ben Sheets and has reviewed his medical records, but they're still not sure they have the money to sign him.
Rays: Are reportedly interested in trading for Rick Ankiel.
Royals: One of baseball's smallest markets has joined Oakland, the Dodgers and Toronto in pursuit of Rafael Furcal. They're also reportedly discussing trading Zack Greinke to the Braves for Jeff Francoeur.
Yankees: Before the ink is even dry on Sabathia's deal, the Yankees may also be offering four years, $66 million to Derek Lowe.

Chone Smith, apparently bored with the offseason, has unveiled the Hall of Very Good, for players not quite good enough for the Hall of Fame. Former Brewers Willie Randolph and Sal Bando are among the inductees.

Finally, a trifecta on bats: maple bats will still be used in 2009, George Brett is working with developers to market a bamboo bat, and Billy Ripken used to write obscenities on his.

Drink up.