SB Nation - Brandon Moss

Should Ramon Vazquez Keep His Roster Spot?

Charlie — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 06:58:39 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

Pittsburgh Pirates' Ramon Vazquez (5) connects for a two-run single against Cincinnati Reds' Micah Owings in the first inning during a baseball game in Pittsburgh Saturday, May 2, 2009. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

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Interesting tidbit in the Post-Gazette today:

Looks like Rule 5 pick John Raynor will be in a one-on-one battle with Brandon Moss for reserve outfield duty this spring. Locked into the bench for now are Jason Jaramillo, Ramon Vazquez, Bobby Crosby and Delwyn Young. That leaves room for one outfielder, preferably one capable of backing up in center. And Raynor might be better there than Moss.

Unlike Dejan Kovacevic, I can only speculate on what will happen, but what should happen here? Vazquez is vaguely useful in that, you know, he can play a bunch of infield positions and isn't Brian Bixler, but Vazquez hit a sub-Bloomquistian .230/.335/.279 last year, making 2009 the fourth season in the past six in which he failed to top a .620 OPS. I mostly admire Vazquez's patient approach at the plate, but that's really all he had in 2009--he looked like was praying for pitchers to accidentally walk him. I liked the Vazquez signing when it happened, but his strong 2008 campaign with the Rangers now looks very fluky. With Bobby Crosby in the fold, there doesn't seem to be any reason to break camp with another utility infielder, especially since Young can also sort of play second.

There are probably five bench spots available, and one probably will go to a catcher, and another to someone who can play shortstop. Jaramillo, Crosby and Young look very likely to make the bench, at this point. Maybe Kovacevic knows something I don't, but if I were in charge, it wouldn't be particularly likely that Vazquez would make the team next year. Assuming for now that Jeff Clement starts at first base and Garrett Jones is in right field, Moss isn't an ideal fit for the bench because he's left-handed like both of those guys. But Moss is out of options, can remain under team control for several more years if he sticks, and (despite his terrible 2009) has some prayer of hitting in 2010. There's really no upside in keeping Vazquez, except as insurance in case Crosby or Ronny Cedeno gets hurt or doesn't make the team. And even leaving Moss aside for a second, I'd probably rather keep Raynor and Steve Pearce as the last two bench guys than give a spot to Vazquez.

Of course, worrying about the Pirates careers of Vazquez and (probably) Moss is a deck chairs / Titanic situation. If Pedro Alvarez comes up, Vazquez will be gone, and if Jose Tabata comes up or the Pirates acquire another corner player, Moss will probably be gone. In the meantime, though, I think he could be a pretty decent bench outfielder--I think he's a bit better as a hitter than he showed in 2009, and his defense is good. It would be nice to stick with him for a couple more months before dumping him completely.

Pirates Pick John Raynor in Rule 5

Charlie — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 19:00:30 -0000

The Pirates have selected Marlins outfielder John Raynor with the second pick in the Rule 5 draft. Raynor struggled at Class AAA New Orleans last year, but he had an impressive minor league profile before that, posting nice averages and OBPs, even in 2008 after skipping a level by heading straight from the South Atlantic League to AA. He's also blazingly fast, but he's not a slap hitter--he hit 13 homers in both 2007 and 2008, although he only had six last year.

Finding information about Marlins prospects is tricky, because no one cares about the Marlins, let alone their minor leaguers. But my guess is that Raynor can handle center pretty well. He's fast, he wins some praise for his defense, and Baseball America guessed in 2007 that he would wind up being the Marlins' starting center fielder.

The downsides with Raynor are that he strikes out a bit too much for a prospect of his type, doesn't have a ton of power and is coming off a pretty bad season.

Raynor came up all the time in Rule 5 discussions before the draft, but I didn't see this coming because, well, the Pirates didn't really need outfielders and, in particular, they're really short on relief pitching. So they must have liked Raynor a lot. It's certainly possible that Raynor won't stick, but if he does, it could mean even less playing time for Brandon Moss. As it stands now, Lastings Milledge and Garrett Jones will probably man the corner outfield spots, with Jeff Clement playing first. Moss hasn't hit as well as Delwyn Young, and time will tell if he plays defense as well as Raynor, so if Raynor makes the team Moss could be a spare part without much of a use. And if the Bucs sign one of the outfielders they're interested in, like Rick Ankiel or Xavier Nady... well, in that case, my guess is that Raynor would be sent back to the Marlins, but if he isn't then constructing the bench could get really tricky.

Overall, though, Raynor's performance record before 2009 makes him an interesting pick. If he can recover some of the ability to hit for average he's shown in the past, then he can be a valuable bench player.

Lefties, Lefties Everywhere

Charlie — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 06:47:35 -0000

More photos » by Chris Carlson - AP

Would another lefty hitter like Hank Blalock, right, be the best fit for the Pirates?

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Straight to the point today: one thing I find a bit strange about the idea of the Pirates pursuing Rick Ankiel and/or Hank Blalock is that both those guys are left-handed, whereas most of the Bucs' other options at first base and right field (Garrett Jones, Jeff Clement, Brandon Moss) are too. Steve Pearce is the only righty who might be in the mix right now at first and right, and I can't believe the Bucs are still taking him seriously. If the idea in pursuing an extra corner guy is to add an extra bit of upside and perhaps hope for a nice prospect at the deadline if the new player does well, I can't really fault the Pirates for not considering the player's handedness. But if the Pirates really are serious about seeing what they have in Clement, in particular, it would seem to behoove them to find someone whose skills complement his.

Admittedly, the pickings in that area are pretty slim. Two righty free agent outfielders who might make a bit of sense are Marlon Byrd and Coco Crisp. Byrd was a regular for the Rangers this year and has played pretty well for three straight seasons, so he might require the sort of multiyear contract to which the Pirates would probably rather not commit themselves.

Crisp is a subpar hitter, but he's not old, and he's an outstanding defensive player; he could certainly handle either left or center (if that were required) in PNC. Unfortunately, his throwing arm was poor even before he had surgery on both shoulders this year, so playing him in right wouldn't work. If he were added to the roster, the Pirates could work out some sort of time share where Lastings Milledge and Garrett Jones played every day but rotated between left and right (Milledge) and right and first (Jones), while Clement and Crisp formed some sort of weird semi-platoon at the other available positions.

...This is all really speculative, and Crisp obviously isn't ideal, but I'm trying to be creative here. Given the free agent market, I can see why the Pirates would be interested in Ankiel and Blalock, and I'm not opposed to signing either of them, if they'd be willing to play in Pittsburgh. But, as much as PNC is kinder to lefties than righties, it seems a bit strange to crowd the roster with lefties. Maybe a low-leverage trade or an inspired minor league free agent signing (Ernesto Mejia of the Braves, perhaps?) would be the right move here, with the righty Pearce's initial role being determined by how credible a major league option the new acquisition is.

The Great General Manager Debate: NL Central Edition

davoag — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 13:00:27 -0000

The trade that made me lose faith in the Pirates suckitude...

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Part of my reaction to the Aki Iwamura trade was realizing how surprisingly competent the Pirates front office has become. They picked up a cost-controlled player for a replaceable part and improved their infield defense in the process. How is that a bad thing?

The funny thing is, the Pirates have been bad for so long, and it's so easy to dismiss their hires as actually being good baseball people, I had forgotten what Pittsburgh was actually getting in Neil Huntington. Here's another post from FanGraphs about what this trade means for the Pirates executives and here's an interview with Dan Fox, their database guru. Basically, the Pirates have a guy that gets to play with computer simulations all day until he can accurately evaluate and forecast players. I can get that job how?

It also made me start thinking about all the general managers in the National League Central. Which ones was I most afraid of? Which ones were a joke? Were there any teams that were run competently from year to year?

The thing that surprised me when I did my research was not that Ed Wade is probably the weakest GM in the Central, it's that so many of them have changed in the past two seasons. Justice loves to harp on how the organizational chaos Houston has gone through is affecting the club in many ways. Still, to see that so many of Wade's peers have also changed jobs recently is refreshing.

It's also scary, especially when at least four of these guys are competent-to-really good. After the jump is a look at each GM. Feel free to share your thoughts on who worries you the most in the comments...

Chicago Cubs

GM Jim Hendry

Tenure: Since July, 2002 ( 7 1/2 seasons)

Notes: The longest tenured general manager also has the biggest payroll of any team in the division. What does he do with all that money? Waste it. As scary as the Cubs lineup and rotation can be, Hendry alone makes me feel good about the Astros chances against Chicago in the near future.

This was a man who overpaid for guys like LaTroy Hawkins and Ted Lilly (though, to be fair, Lilly was excellent). He also spent a ton of money for Alfonso Soriano to play center field, and then promptly bumped him to left. Then, he spent a ton of money to bring in notorious pot-stirrer Milton Bradley, adding to the dangerous clubhouse dynamic that Lou Piniella always brings.

Funny thing, though, 134 million can buy you a damned good team. Hendry may have made mistakes in the past, but has done a good job of at least correcting them. He admitted failure with Rich Hill, shipping him off to Baltimore. He did turn Ryan Dempster into an effective pitcher in his new role with the Cubs. Hendry also has a productive farm system, with guys like Carlos Marmol and Geovanny Soto picking up the team on the cheap.

Would Hendry be this good without all that money? Probably not. In his market, though, it's tough not to make a big splash each season and have the fans be happy. Of all the GMs, though, I'm least afraid of Hendry.

Cincinnati Reds

GM Walt Jocketty

Tenure: Since 2008 (2 seasons)

Notes: The interesting thing about Jocketty is he went from a winning team to one that is continually frustrated by not being able to get over the hump. He also went to a team that walked away from a more progressive-thinking GM in former Twins assistant Wayne Krivsky for the more traditional Jocketty. Of course, Jocketty also followed Tony LaRussa from Oakland to St. Louis, so it's unclear how much of his philosophy is tied to LaRussa's.

The Reds haven't exactly been dramatic in making over the club, but Jocketty has shown a willingness to be aggressive with the team's prospects and not trade off valuable assets for overhyped players (I'm looking at you, Jim Bowden). Still, Jocketty hasn't shown the same level of success as at his previous two stops. It will take a little more time to see whether his player evaluation method transfers to the Reds scouting department. If Jocketty can hit a few home runs in the draft, the rest of his record in the Queen City will be moot.

Milwaukee Brewers

GM Doug Melvin

Tenure: Since September 2002 (7 seasons)

Notes: One of the two longest tenured GMs in the NL Central, Melvin has had an up-and-down career in Milwaukee. Yes, he did draft Rickie Weeks and Prince Fielder. Yes, he did trade for CC Sabathia. But, what have the Brewers actually won? This team seems to consistenly play for second place, which isn't bad, but until they can get over the hump mentally, Melvin may not be viewed more positively.

All indications are that Melvin is a more traditional GM. The Brewers don't leap out at you as a very sabermetric-friendly team, but they do have a little bit of the Oakland A's philosophy for a small market. The Brewers under Melvin consistently make unpopular decisions with players to avoid locking them up to bad contracts that hurt the team. Instead, they'll buy out arbitration years for a player, insuring cost certainty and rewarding young guys before they may be overpaid. Exhibit one is Ryan Braun.

Certainly, the biggest deficiency with the club is starting pitching. Melvin has shown a knack for making big moves (CC), regardless of his position as a small market team. He's also done a good job of drafting by talent and not positional needs (Matt LaPorta, anyone?). The obvious plus side of this is Melvin can then trade for pitching with his talent surplus. It will be interesting to see if Melvin can keep the pipeline going for the Brewers and tinker around the edges enough to get a winner.

Pittsburgh Pirates

GM Neil Huntington

Tenure: Since September 2007 (2 seasons)

Notes: Here is the crux of my argument. The Pirates are without a doubt the worst-run franchise in the National League. For years, they have been incompetent, both in the draft, in trades and in fielding winning ball clubs. Who can forget Randall Simon viciously attacking that poor Bratwurst in Milwaukee? Just horrible. Still, Huntington has done a great job of reversing this trend. He correctly indentified assets that were expendible, seems to have valued his minor leaguers correctly and his only big misstep so far has been the Bay trade. The big deal with the Yankees netted the Buccos a solid starter in Ross Ohlendorff and a young outfielder in Jose Tabata (who hasn't panned out). The Bay deal saw an iffy Andy LaRoche, a reliever (Craig Hanson) and a fourth or fifth outfielder (Brandon Moss) traded for one of the best left fielders in baseball.

Of course, if the Pirates had let Bay walk after the season like the Red Sox have, they'd be roundly criticized. The organization seems to be headed in the right direction. Count me as still skeptical, though, even with present evidence to the contrary.

St. Louis Cardinals

GM John Mozeliak

Tenure: Since 2008 (2 seasons)

Notes: Mozeliak took over a team that didn't have much to work with outside of a couple big money players (Pujols, Rolen, Carpenter) and a ton of farm talent. He's tinkered around the edges well and leaned heavily on his manager and pitching coach's reputations to slot in marginal guys into productive roles. Mozeliak stuck by Colby Rasmus through early slumps and made a big-ticket acquisition of Matt Holliday.

There are conflicting reports about his style, but it seems like he appreciates what the stats can tell him about the game and uses it to some degree. Yet, his philosophy seems to be grating on the older school ideas of Tony LaRussa. Combine that with his cold-blooded trade of Dave Duncan's son, Chris, and he's done quite a bit to alienate two of the most important cogs to the Cardinals machine for the past decade. Not that I'm complaining.

There are both good and bad qualities here, but I don't think we can judge Mozeliak fairly until he's out from under LaRussa's considerable shadow (the man's a genius, after all).

Houston Astros

GM Ed Wade

Tenure: Since September 2007 (2 seasons)

Notes: So, the thing about Ed Wade is he can't trade. I said some nice things in the past about the job he did leading up to this past season, but after reviewing his track record in Philly, I have a suggestion. Ed Wade needs to hire some smart, baseball-savvy mind to be his trade manager. Like a salary-cap manager in football, this person would handle all the ramifications of trades (scouting players, balance, contracts, etc.) and give his best recommendation to Wade. Only then could the big man sign off.

If you think I exaggerate, look at his transactions. Here's a link to Baseball-Reference's transaction page starting in 1998. Wade took over in January of that year. In his entire Philly tenure, he made two good trades: Billy Wagner and Kenny Lofton. Every other trade he made was a bloodbath. Eric Milton? He gave up Nick Punto and Carlos Silva. Scott Rolen? He got Placido Polanco and that's it. He traded Curt Schilling for nothing. He traded away a young Adam Eaton for a declining Andy Ashby. He traded two young pitchers for two relievers and Ron Gant. Who thought this was a good idea? In fact, Wade's history is chock-full of trades for relievers. It's the position he enjoys tinkering with most on the team. Unfortunately, relievers are fungible, and trading for them wastes cheap assets.

Thus, why I had the idea of a trade manager. I'm sure someone like Paul DiPodesta or Kevin Towers wouldn't mind being the Astros full-time trade scout, right? Either one would be imminently more qualified than Wade to make these kinds of decisions. And yes, I realize that Wade has made some decent trades with the Astros. Sticking to the numbers, though? That streak may not last forever.

Perry Hill Speaks Out

Charlie — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 01:54:41 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

4 months ago: Pittsburgh Pirates first base coach Perry Hill (8) and St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Albert Pujols, left, come to the aide of a fan who was hit by a foul ball down the first baseline in the seventh inning of a baseball game in Pittsburgh Friday, Aug. 7, 2009. Pirates's Garrett Jones was the batter. The fan was taken by paramedics from the field, and his condition is not known. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

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I'm honestly not overly interested in the scene that has unfolded around Perry Hill's departure, but since the Post-Gazette has another item on it today and Buster Olney is running with it...

As dramas go, I find this one to be pretty thin gruel, and it's very surprising to see that ESPN.com thinks the loss of a first-base coach is interesting. Right off the top, the reason this is still in the news is that Hill has spoken up to dispute Neal Huntington's comment that Hill "has decided he does not want to coach." Hill says he does want to coach, just not with the Pirates right now.

It's a distinction without a difference, even if we grant that Huntington meant that Hill doesn't want to coach at all, which isn't at all clear from what Huntington actually said. The fact is that the Pirates have Hill under contract next year, so by leaving them behind, he is effectively opting not to coach. If there was anything wrong with Huntington's comments, it's that they were a little bit ambiguous.

I'm not sure I understand why this story would be national news. A coach refusing to honor his contract is, I suppose, unusual, but since Hill is just a first-base coach, I'm not sure why any non-Pirate fan would care.

It's unfortunate that the Pirates lost him--he has a good reputation. But it's not really clear to me that his loss will be felt much. Hill's greatest value lies in his reputation as an infield coach, and it's true that the Pirates made big strides in their defense last year. But most of that improvement was in the outfield, not the infield, as good defenders like Andrew McCutchen, Nyjer Morgan and Brandon Moss (and, if you believe the numbers, even Lastings Milledge) replaced mediocre or outright bad ones like Jason Bay and Nate McLouth. Hill may well deserve some credit for Andy LaRoche's good play at third, and the Delwyn Young experiment at second turned out better than I thought it might have (although it was still pretty bad). But improvement in the infield was a small percentage of the overall improvement. Hill will be missed, but a coach is just a coach.

* * *

I'm on the road tomorrow through next Tuesday. I suspect I will have some internet access, but I'm not sure how much, so please hang tight if the updates aren't as regular as you'd like.

Pirates' Season Ends With 6-0 Loss

Charlie — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 20:26:30 -0000

More photos » by David Kohl - AP

2 months ago: Cincinnati Reds Scott Rolen, left, slides safely into third past Pittsburgh Pirates third baseman Andy LaRouche, right, for a RBI-triple in the fifth inning during a baseball game, Sunday, Oct. 4, 2009, in Cincinnati. The Reds won 6-0. (AP Photo/David Kohl)

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In the Pirates' final game of the year, the Bucs managed to put a staggering fifteen men on base--ten hits, including a triple, plus four walks and a hit batsman--without plating a single one of them. This wasn't a good game by any stretch, but it could have been considerably better. In the fifth inning, Steve Pearce led off with a triple and Andrew McCutchen followed that up with a walk--and then Andy LaRoche came to the plate and swung at about a million pitches outside the strike zone, fouling off most of them before finally striking out swinging. Garrett Jones and Lastings Milledge followed that up with strikeouts of their own.

The Bucs' pitching today was one of those bullpen special days, with Jeff Karstens getting the spot start and pitching only two and a third. Today's bullpen only day didn't work out nearly as well as it did the last time, as Karstens allowed two runs and Donald Veal made a complete mess in the bottom of the fifth.

Brandon Moss got a start and went 1-for-2 with two walks. Good for him, but fortunately for all of us, it sounds like this was a last hurrah of sorts, since he won't be starting much next year. Moss finishes the season with 133 games played and a .236/.303/.364 line. That would be barely acceptable for a Gold Glove shortstop, but for a corner outfielder, well... at least Moss rates as a good defensive player, which means he's a worthwhile bench guy. Beyond that, I think we've seen what we need to see.

One nice thing--well, pretty much the only nice thing--about knowing you're a terrible ballclub is the ability to use playing time as a way of acquiring information. It wasn't automatic that Moss would fail this year. PECOTA (subscription required) said before the season that there would be about a 25% chance of him being as bad or worse than he actually was, and compared him to good players like Curtis Granderson, Paul O'Neill, Jason Kubel, Graig Nettles and Carlos Pena, along with some other guys who weren't nearly as good. The Pirates sensibly used the first couple months of the season to see if they had a Granderson or O'Neill on their hands. It turns out they almost certainly don't, but hey--it's not like the Bucs would have won 90 games with a different right fielder.

Cueto goes to 11! Reds win, 8-4.

Brendanukkah — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 03:40:09 -0000

Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Joey Votto. The Irresistable Force went 2-3 with a double, a home run, three RBI, a run scored, and two walks. Dude's good.

Key Plays

Johnny Cueto got off to a rough start. He walked Andrew McCutchen, then gave up a run-scoring double to Andy LaRoche. It seems like it's been awhile since we've harped on all the first inning runs the Reds have given up. They gave up a lot.
In the second inning, the Reds used the same walk-double strategy to even the game. Scott Rolen drew the walk, and Darnell McDonald hit the double. Walks to Ramon Hernandez and Drew Stubbs loaded the bases, but Paul Janish flew out to end the inning.
Scott Rolen homered in the third. Know what? I haven't really missed Edwin since we traded him.
McDonald led off the fourth inning with a single, and went to third on Ramon Hernandez's single. Then he scored on a passed ball. After Cueto and Stubbs made outs, Paul Janish walked, and he and Hernandez scored on Joey Votto's double. Votto was thrown out trying to stretch the hit into a triple.
Cueto ran into trouble in the sixth inning. He gave up a leadoff single to Garrett Jones, and a walk to Brandon Moss one out later. Then Delwyn Young hit a three run homer to bring the Pirates within one run.
The Pirates hadn't counted on El Nino Destructor, however. In the bottom of the sixth, Ramon Hernandez doubled to lead off, and Willy Taveras came in to run for him. Then Juan Francisco hit a double to right field and Taveras scored. ROAR! Francisco then scored on successive sacrifices by Stubbs and Janish. ROAR!
Votto homered in the eighth inning. Such a giver.

via www.fangraphs.com

Other Notes

Brandon Phillips had been 0-16 before singling in the eighth. If he gets five RBI tomorrow, he'll finish with 100 on the season.
Francisco Cordero pitched a scoreless ninth, but it was not a save situation. He's still one save shy of 40 for the season.
Joey Votto's 25th home run gave him a career high.
With the win, Johnny Cueto joins fellow starting pitchers Bronson Arroyo, Homer Bailey, Edinson Volquez, and Justin Lehr to not have a losing record.
Since both the Brewers and Reds won, the Reds have clinched fourth place in the NL Central.

Final - 10.3.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Pittsburgh Pirates	1	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	4	6	0
Cincinnati Reds	0	1	1	3	0	2	0	1	X	8	11	0
WP: Johnny Cueto (11 - 11) LP: Zach Duke (11 - 16)

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Pirates Sweep Split-Squad Games From Cubs, 4-0 And 8-2

Al — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 13:00:56 -0000

More photos » by Paul Beaty - AP

When Micah Hoffpauir and Sam Fuld couldn't come up with this fly ball, we should have known Game 2 wasn't going to turn out well.

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The lineup for game one yesterday read like the list of players the Cubs send to Tucson every spring to play the Rockies. You know, because the regulars don't want to ride the bus for two hours.

They played like they had ridden that bus, too, getting shut out 4-0 by the Pirates and Charlie Morton, a guy they had scored ten runs off of on August 14 before he could even register more than three outs. On a sunny but chilly afternoon when the announced attendance was 34,362, no more than about 13,000 entered Wrigley Field. For the first time that any of us could remember, the Cubs actually closed off the center-field bleachers with yellow caution tape, reminiscent of the days in the 1960's and 1970's when the Cubs wouldn't open the upper deck on weekdays when they expected small crowds. This practice ended after 1981 when the Cubs stopped selling general admission tickets in the main part of the ballpark. (See below the fold for a photo.) The announced attendance, based on the number of tickets sold, put Cubs attendance past 3 million (3,056,781 with four dates remaining) for the sixth straight year. The Cubs will need to put together a good offseason to do that again in 2010.

Ted Lilly didn't throw badly in the first game -- that is, after the first inning, when all four Pirates runs crossed the plate. Some questionable defense didn't help -- Bobby Scales, who again I remind Lou is not an outfielder, pulled up short on Lastings Milledge's looping line drive, allowing it to bounce in front of him. Then he nearly got Garrett Jones having taken too long a turn past second base; if this play had worked, Steve Pearce's ground ball on the next at-bat would have ended the inning with only one run scoring. Instead, Jason Jaramillo followed with a double to the LF corner, on which Jake Fox made a Jacque Jones-like throw to the infield, allowing Jaramillo to take third. Didn't really matter, as .225-hitting Brian Bixler drove him in.

And that was it -- the Triple-A lineup the Cubs sent up in game one managed only four singles, three walks and a hit batsman off Morton and got only three runners past first base; the last of those, Scales, took second on defensive indifference with two out in the ninth.

The weather for the night game (announced attendance 33,299; actual count in the park about 17,000) was colder than Tuesday night's and so were the Cubs' bats. The presence of Derrek Lee, who had two hits and a walk, made it a little less split-squaddy, but D-Lee appeared to still be bothered by his left foot, the one he fouled a ball off of on Tuesday night. It appeared that Lee's first-inning single might have gone far enough for him to reach second base, but he pulled up fairly slowly going into first, not wanting to risk any further injury on a chilly evening. We are told that Aramis Ramirez is going to play "sparingly" the rest of the year, which I'd read as "he won't play at all unless the weather warms up", which it probably won't. A-Ram gutted out half a season -- 80 games -- worth of very good performance considering the serious injury he suffered, and now he needs to rest up and be 100% for 2010. It appears he won't need surgery, which is good news.

Carlos Zambrano made it through six innings in his final 2009 start and didn't pitch too badly, but didn't have his best command. He walked four and two of them scored in a third inning where he couldn't manage to get that third out. One run had already scored when Z struck out Milledge, but Brandon Moss followed with a two-run single, and that, as the saying goes, was that. The Cubs managed their second and final run of the night in the bottom of that inning when Z smacked a double to deep center field, advanced on a groundout by Sam Fuld and scored on a nicely executed sacrifice by Ryan Theriot, perhaps the best thing the Cubs did all day. Z also hit another deep fly ball to CF in the fourth that was caught by Andrew McCutchen. No other Cub hit anything as well as Z did in his two at-bats.

Last night I met BCB reader katie casey and her husband and son -- nice to meet you; wish you (and the rest of us) had been able to see even one win yesterday. The Cubs now need to win all four remaining games on this final 2009 homestand to have a winning decade (this particular decade defined as "the ten years comprising 2000-2009"). That's a worthy goal, and also an 86-76 record would be one game better than Lou's first season as manager in 2007.

Weather permitting -- and this forecast doesn't look too encouraging -- the Cubs and Pirates will finish off their season series tonight. The Cubs clinched second place in the NL Central last night when the Brewers lost to the Rockies; that's nice, but not the goal we were all seeking this season.

The CF bleachers were closed for game 1 on Wednesday. BCB photo by David Sameshima (click on photo to open a larger version in a new browser window

It's The 47th Anniversary Of... Cubs vs. Pirates Doubleheader Preview, Wednesday 9/30, 1:05 & 7:05 CT

Al — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 16:30:18 -0000

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Write your own caption.

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A 47th anniversary? Of what? What's that all about?

This all started with an email exchange on a SABR mailing list to which I subscribe. (Yes, I got permission from both men to post their email here.) Josh Heit asked the list over this past weekend:

On Monday, the Mets and Nationals begin a series and the teams will have at least a combined 191 losses (Mets 89 going into Sunday, Nationals 102). Is this is a record? I have checked some obvious choices such as the 2003 Tigers and did not find a series that beat 191, although I was not working off of a comprehensive list.

To which John Pastier wrote the following definitive reply:

As a 1962 Mets fan, I am deeply shocked that Josh does not consider The Amazin's to be an obvious choice to be checked for this honor. This club was to losing what Rickey Henderson was to stealing or walking, what Barry Bonds was to splash hits, what Ichiro is to singles, what the Rockies are to thin air, what Joe Morgan is to baseball analysis, and what Pete Rose was to making outs. They are the undisputed gold standard of losing, and holding up a puny 191 combined losses before this juggernaut of defeat is like asking whether Babe Ruth ever hit more than 40 home runs.

The Mets and the Cubs played each other on Sept. 30, 1962, and at the close of business, they had combined for 223 losses, 120 of them by the Metropolitans. And they did this even though they were not allowed to complete their full schedule, falling two decisions short of the requisite 162.

I hope Pastier was being facetious about Joe Morgan (either that, or in an oblique way calling him a "loser"). Anyway, yes, the Sept. 30, 1962 game (which the Cubs won 5-3), holds the record for the game in which the two clubs began the day with the most combined losses (222; the Mets began the game with 119 defeats and the Cubs 103, which is the franchise record, tied in 1966). Another interesting note about that season-ending series at Wrigley Field 47 years ago: the first game of that series, a Friday afternoon game on September 28 also won by the Cubs 3-2, drew a paid "crowd" of 595 people. That number of people could fit comfortably in a couple of bleacher sections. It was one of nine games between 1959 and 1966 that drew paid attendance of less than 1000. How times change.

There will be a few more people than that in the seats during today's first game, a makeup of the postponement from August 16, but likely fewer than the estimated 15,000 who showed up last night.

Starting rotation note: Lou announced during last night's postgame news conference that Jeff Samardzija will start tomorrow vs. the Pirates, and Tom Gorzelanny on Friday vs. the Diamondbacks. (It was originally the other way around.)

Game One Starting Pitchers


Ted Lilly Cubs	vs.	Charlie Morton Pirates

12-8	W-L	4-9
3.02	ERA	5.01
143	SO	54
34	BB	37
22	HR	7
vs. Pit	--	vs. Cubs

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Ted Lilly	12-8	26	26	0	0	0	0	170.0	146	62	57	22	34	143	3.02	1.06

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Charlie Morton	4-9	17	17	0	0	0	0	88.0	98	49	49	7	37	54	5.01	1.53

Game Two Starting Pitchers


Carlos Zambrano Cubs	vs.	Jeff Karstens Pirates

9-6	W-L	3-5
3.69	ERA	5.45
146	SO	49
74	BB	44
10	HR	12
vs. Pit	--	vs. Cubs

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Carlos Zambrano	9-6	34	27	1	1	0	0	163.1	149	74	67	10	74	146	3.69	1.37

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jeff Karstens	3-5	36	11	0	0	0	0	100.2	106	62	61	12	44	49	5.45	1.49

I'm going to try to say nice things about the Pirates' starters today, Charlie Morton and Jeff Karstens, but geez, those records are pretty bad. Neither one strikes out many hitters, and both ERA's are north of 5.00. The last time Charlie Morton faced the Cubs, they scored ten earned runs off him in one-plus innings on August 14 at Wrigley Field before John Russell took pity on him and got him out of the game. Jeff Karstens had one shining moment as a Pirate, in the first game he threw for them after being acquired from the Yankees. On August 1, 2008, he threw six shutout innings against the Cubs at Wrigley Field. His next two outings against the Cubs, not so much -- five earned runs in three innings in a start on August 25, 2008 and two earned runs in two innings in relief on September 9 of this year.

Ted Lilly will be trying to lower his ERA below 3.00 and finish the year with a sub-three ERA for the first time in his major league career -- a worthy goal. A win today would also be his 45th as a Cub, giving him an average of 15 wins a year over the first three years of his four-year deal, one of Jim Hendry's best free-agent signings. Ted is 1-1 vs. the Pirates this year with a 2.77 ERA and he threw better in the June 30 loss, when the Cubs got shut out by Ross Ohlendorf (who the Cubs won't face in this series), than in the September 9 victory at PNC Park. Ted is also 8-1, 1.60 in 12 starts at Wrigley Field this year and 8-3, 2.55 in 14 starts in day games.

Carlos Zambrano is 1-0, 2.19 in two starts vs. the Pirates this year; he will be trying to follow up his shutout of the Giants with another strong performance to end the year on an up note, and also to get his 10th win. That would make seven straight years in double figures for Z and it would be his 106th career victory. Of the current Pirates, no one has more than 14 career AB against Z, and only Brandon Moss has homered off him.

Today's first game is on WGN and FSN Pittsburgh. Today's second game is on CSN Chicago Plus (CLTV in Chicago, "check local listings" elsewhere). For other games today see the MLB.com Mediacenter.

MLB.com Gameday (game one)

MLB.com Gameday (game two)

Baseball-reference.com game preview (game one)

Baseball-reference.com game preview (game two)

SB Nation game preview (game one)

SB Nation game preview (game two)

Please visit our SB Nation Pirates site Bucs Dugout. They seem a little lonely over there.

There won't be a separate game preview thread for the second game; consider this a preview for both games (feel free to revisit this thread before the night game begins). Overflow comment threads will post today for game one at 2:15 and 3:15 pm CDT. The first pitch thread will post for game two at 7 pm CDT and overflows at 8:15 and 9:15 pm CDT.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

Start The 2010 Countdown: Cubs Eliminated, But Dempster Shines In 6-0 Shutout Of Pirates

Al — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 12:30:14 -0000

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Oustanding, Ryan, just outstanding.

Browse more photos »

It looked for "just a hot minute", as Jack Brickhouse might have said 40+ years ago, that the Cubs would stave off elimination for another day. Ex-Cub Jason Kendall hit a one-out, three-run, game-tying homer for the Brewers against the Rockies in the ninth inning. Two innings later, though, the Rockies' Chris Iannetta hit a homer of his own, a two-run walkoff, and the Cubs' elimination number was reduced to zero.

Thus we begin "wait till next year" once again.

Thankfully, there are still a few games of Cubs baseball to enjoy for the rest of 2009 -- because you know you'll miss it when it's away for the winter -- and a few things yet to play for.

One of those goals was set by Ryan Dempster. He wants to throw 200 innings for the second straight season, and went a long way toward that goal with a masterfully pitched five-hit, 6-0 shutout of the Pirates. Dempster reached 195 innings with one start to go (on Sunday), lowered his ERA to 3.51 -- within range of the 2.96 he had last year -- and threw his first CG shutout since he was a member of the Marlins on July 3, 2001. It was the Cubs' second shutout in four games, and the first thrown by a Cubs pitcher at Wrigley Field since Jason Marquis blanked, coincidentally, the Pirates on May 9, 2007. Odd notes from that game: only one Pirate who played that day remains on the club (Ryan Doumit), and Marquis' opponent that night was current Cub Tom Gorzelanny (John Grabow, who came over from Pittsburgh with Gorzelanny, also pitched in that game).

Dempster was outstanding. Though he gave up two doubles, both leading off innings, those runners were stranded and only one other Pirate (Brandon Moss, who walked and went to third on a Delwyn Young single in the second inning) made it past first base. Dempster threw 120 pitches (81 strikes), which wasn't even his highest total of the season (he threw 121 against the Brewers in a 12-6 loss on May 9) and had the Pirates under control all night.

Meanwhile, the Cubs were taking advantage of Kevin Hart's wildness -- something he exhibited even when he was throwing fairly well in his four Cub starts before the trade to Pittsburgh -- and some shoddy Pirates defense in putting six runs on the board off Hart in the first four innings. The Pirates made three errors, all of them on what appeared to be routine plays, helping the Cubs score two unearned runs out of the six. The Cubs drew seven walks in all, four by Ryan Theriot -- who was an excellent leadoff man last night, reaching base all five times he was at bat. (That's not an endorsement of Theriot for leadoff -- I still believe the job should go to Kosuke Fukudome -- just a note that he did a good job yesterday.)

The win clinched a winning season for the Cubs with their 82nd win. That's the first time the Cubs have had three consecutive winning seasons in 37 years, since 1970-71-72. And it's the first time they have done so in a manager's first three years in 74 years, since the 1933-34-35 Cubs had three straight winning years in Charlie Grimm's first three seasons as manager. There remain other personal goals besides Dempster's 200 innings; Carlos Zambrano goes today for win #10 to finish in double figures, and Sam Fuld still seeks his first major league RBI (only two players, both 100+ years ago, had more plate appearances in a season than Fuld has now -- 103 -- without an RBI). I'd like to see Tyler Colvin get some more playing time in the final six games, too.

Last night's announced crowd was 35,308. That brought the season paid attendance to 2,989,120, so today's first-game attendance will put them past the 3 million mark for the sixth straight year. Last night's opponent, the chilly weather, and postseason chances being basically over kept the in-house count to what appeared to be about 15,000. The bleachers were about half-full (maybe 2500) and the rest of the park about one-third occupied, many of whom left after the seventh-inning stretch. The Cubs will have to make definitive moves to improve the team, and in my opinion not raise ticket prices, to keep drawing in 2010 the way they have the last three seasons.

The first game of today's split doubleheader begins at 1:05 pm CDT -- the first time a game has started at that time at Wrigley Field that I can remember. The game preview thread will be up at 11:30 am CDT.