SB Nation - Willy Aybar

Gabe Kapler is Off the Bases like the Spiderman Logo

R.J. Anderson — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 10:00:11 -0000

by Jim Prisching - AP

I know the Spiderman joke doesn't entirely make sense other than my insistence on saying Kapler plays the field like a spider on acid ... but his arms here seem to support my theory on Kapler's arachnid nature.

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As hopefully everyone knows, WAR does not account for baserunning. Stolen bases and caught stealing are included, but stuff like advancing to third from first are not. I suppose you could call it a hidden value in player evaluation that even the best metric in the land is yet to fully encompass - for now at least - so rather than pretend it doesn't happen, or stone the people who point this out, let's look at the Rays baserunners to see who benefits and who does not.

Note that all of these statistics are way of Baseball-Reference.

First up, the number of times a batter is on first when a single is hit. I set the bar at 10 times because this seems to coincide nicely with 200 plate appearances received. Evan Longoria and B.J. Upton lead the pack and were amongst the team leaders in plate trips, so hey, it works out just fine. Amusingly, Upton lead the team with 37 occurrences; here are the rest of the qualifiers:

Player	1stS	1stS2	1stS3	Third%
B.J. Upton	37	27	10	27.03
Evan Longoria	34	23	11	32.35
Jason Bartlett	28	18	10	35.71
*Carl Crawford	27	19	8	29.63
*Carlos Pena	23	12	10	43.48
#Ben Zobrist	22	14	8	36.36
Pat Burrell	21	17	4	19.05
#Dioner Navarro	19	13	6	31.58
*Akinori Iwamura	17	14	3	17.65
#Willy Aybar	15	11	4	26.67
*Gabe Gross	14	9	5	35.71
Gabe Kapler	10	9	1	10

What does this chart tell you? For one, the number of times a runner was on first when a single was hit (1stS), then how many times that runner reached second on the play (1stS2), and how many times they reached third (1stS3). What follows thereafter is a column with the header "Third%". Essentially: the amount of times the runner reached third. Now, keep in mind this is not a perfect metric by any means. Context is important and something that lacks with such a small sample size. There's a real and almost certain chance that the distribution of batted ball degree varies strongly. By that I mean some players - a la Carlos Pena - may have experienced more hard hit balls than others - vis-a-vis Gabe Kapler -- that or smiles are the fuel for legs.

Pena and Gabe Gross really leap off the page. I think if we did a community scouting report on the best and worst baserunners those two might be near the bottom based on speed alone. Meanwhile, Akinori Iwamura would likely be near the top with Kapler, and here he is advancing to third less than Pat Burrell. Upton and Crawford are around a third of the time, which is less than Longoria, Bartlett (I think most would have him top three), Ben Zobrist, Dioner Navarro, and pretty close to Willy Aybar. I can't think of a reason why, except that the ability to steal the extra bag leads Tom Foley to hold them on plays deemed too close. The factoid that dismisses that theory is that he literally does it for nobody else if such is the case, and that makes no sense.

Now let's shift gears a bit and look at the situations in which the runner was on first when a double was hit. From there we're seeing whether they scored or reached third - the minimum advancement:

Player	1stD	1stD3	1stDH	Score%
B.J. Upton	6	3	3	50
Evan Longoria	14	11	3	21.43
Jason Bartlett	16	9	7	43.75
*Carl Crawford	10	6	4	40
*Carlos Pena	8	6	2	25
#Ben Zobrist	9	5	4	44.44
Pat Burrell	9	8	1	11.11
#Dioner Navarro	10	8	2	20
*Akinori Iwamura	3	1	2	66.67
#Willy Aybar	7	7	0	0
*Gabe Gross	4	2	2	50
Gabe Kapler	2	2	0	0

Now the sample size is really too small to say with any trace of confidence. Iwamura, Upton, and Bartlett lead the team, while Crawford and Zobrist aren't too shabby either. Guys like Navarro, Aybar, Pena, and Burrell are low on the totem pole as well. Nothing else stands out.

Our final situation involves the runner being on second when a single is hit and whether they scored or not:

Player	2ndS	2ndS3	2ndSH	Score%
B.J. Upton	20	7	12	60
Evan Longoria	15	5	10	66.67
Jason Bartlett	22	12	10	45.45
*Carl Crawford	24	3	20	83.33
*Carlos Pena	15	6	9	60
#Ben Zobrist	18	6	11	61.11
Pat Burrell	9	6	3	33.33
#Dioner Navarro	9	2	7	77.77
*Akinori Iwamura	18	8	9	50
#Willy Aybar	2	1	1	50
*Gabe Gross	11	9	1	9.09
Gabe Kapler	9	4	3	33.33

So here's where the speed wins out. Crawford is fantastic. Longoria, Upton, and Zobrist are good. Navarro morphs into a rollie pollie when needed, and Gabe Gross is atrocious at it. I would've expected Bartlett to be higher, but them's the breaks.

What does all of this mean? Well, if you use Dan Fox's EQBR metric - by the way, he's now in the Pittsburgh front office - then unsurprisingly Crawford and Bartlett rate well, and .... Gabe Kapler is the worst baserunner on the team by nearly two full runs.

For all the (deserved) talk about Kapler's headiness and managerial experience, is he really the worst baserunner on the team? This seems counter intuitive on multiple levels. Kapler's body type resembles that of a safety more than a linebacker or defensive end. He appears to have quick feet. He doesn't fit the profile of a laggard given his defensive prowess either. So what's going on here?

Well, random fluctuation it appears. I took each of Kapler's individual seasons as a baserunner and ran the same percentages on them. The sexiness of having data dating back over a decade is appealing and great, but do you think 23-year-old Kapler's ability to go second to home tells us much about 33-year-old Kapler's ability? Maybe an extremely small amount, but what we really need to focus on is his last three seasons. Given that managerial break in 2007, we're looking at a period of four years and comparing them to 2009. The inherent small sample size issues get in the way again, but take a look at the contrast that exists:

Time	1stS	1stS2	1stS3	Third%	1stD	1stD3	1stDH	Score%	2ndS	2ndS3	2ndSH	Score%
3 Yr	24	19	4	17	9	5	4	44	18	7	10	56
2009	10	9	1	10	2	2	0	0	9	4	3	33

Kapler rated better in each of three categories in the previous seasons. Barring some inside information that I'm not privy to, I'll go ahead and chalk this up to mostly poor luck. If you really wanted to dive into this data pile you could find the league averages and do a Marcels type projection to get super accurate figures, but know this, the gain is minimal. The spread of baseruning talent simply isn't that thick. It results in about a win differential from the worst team to the best. That's nothing to sneeze at and I'm not saying stack your team with nine Pat Burrell types ... unless they get on base at extremely high clips, then yes, stack them up and watch the runs pile up.

Again, many thanks to B-Ref for the data.

Should The Rays Trade Carlos Pena?

Tommy Rancel — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 11:00:16 -0000

One of the larger topics this offseason has centered on what to do with Carl Crawford. Now that the Rays have picked up his $10 million dollar option they are left with a couple scenarios: trading him now, trading him later, signing him to an extension, or let him walk and take the compensatory pick(s). While CC is and will remain the hot topic for the unforeseeable future, I have been wondering about the Rays other $10 million dollar man, Carlos Pena.

Honestly, I try and to not play favorites, but how can you not when it comes to Carlos Pena? Nevertheless, I've come to the realization that maybe in addition to Crawford, it's time to explore the possibility of a Pena move. Of course, one isn't really reliant on the other and both, one, or none of them could be traded anyway.

Obligatory disclaimer: This is merely speculation. The Rays haven't said they are actively shopping Pena.

First, let's look at the most important fact; Pena will make $10.25 million dollars in 2010. This makes him the team's highest paid player. However, in terms of WAR, he was narrowly the seventh best Rays player this past season. If you want to make the argument that his season was cut short due to injury, Pena was not cracking the top five for the Rays regardless of a full season. This doesn't mean he wasn't valuable; a 2.6 WAR is worth $11.9 million dollars and Pena made $8 million, but the Rays highest paid player shouldn't be their fifth, sixth or seventh best player on the team.

Pena's three-year WAR average has him at a 4.2. If he is able to produce that at $10 million dollars then that is a bargain, but that average is also heavily skewed by his 6.2 WAR in the 2007 season. After posting a 3.8 in 2008, Pena was again down to 2.6 in 2009.

Offensively, there is little doubt that Pena can, and will, still mash. The player friendly projection of Bill James has him slugging .498 in 2010 and I think that may be a bit on the low side. It's the other portions of Pena's game that had me worried. While the Power remains, his patience at the plate and his sharp batting eye have wandered slightly the past few seasons.

After posting a lovely 17.4% walk rate in 2007, Pena's BB% has declined in the past few seasons. Coinciding with the decline in walks is an increase in strikeouts, and not surprisingly an increase in swings on pitches out of the zone.

	BB%	K%	O-Swing%
2007	17.4	29	19.8
2008	16.4	33.9	20.8
2009	15.6	34.6	23.6

Walking 15% of the time is still pretty good, but the K's are at an all time high. Even though we know this is part of his game, it's still not a trend you want to see.

Defensively, Pena had a pretty rough season finishing with a UZR of -4.6. However, his three year average is ever so slightly above average at 0.4. Odds are he will be right at average or slightly below in the field next year, unless 2009 was just the beginning of a defensive avalanche.

Beyond the high salary and some production concerns, there are also the compensation issue. Trading Pena won't net the same type of return as Crawford and nobody should expect such a thing. However, for a team who's looking for power, can accept a few flaws, and afford the price tag, Pena is very attractive option even if it's for a one year rental. I'm not going to speculate on a return, but I'm guessing the Rays could do pretty well in any potential deal.

What I do want to look at is the return if Pena is retained and then walks at the end of the season. According to Eddie Bajek's Elias Projections, Carlos Pena is a type B free agent. Remember, this is based on his 2008 and 2009 seasons. When/if Pena hits the market next season, his compensation will be based on 2009 and 2010. Usually players who have declined over a three-year period while getting older don't improve from one season to the next, however, there are always exceptions. Nonetheless, a Type-A ranking for first basemen doesn't come easy; none of the 2009 free agent first basemen have Type-A status and only Mark Teixiera earned it in 2008.

I have no idea how the Elias rankings are created, but over the two years before he hit free agency, Teixeira averaged a slash line of .307/.406/.557 with nearly 32 home runs. Over the last two seasons, Pena has averaged .237/.367/.515 with 35 bombs. I'm going to assume that to obtain a Type-A status, Pena's going to need to regain his 2007 form and then some, which is unlikely. What's more than likely to happen is Pena will retain Type-B status and his former team will receive a supplemental pick instead of the potential two picks a Type-A would.

This raises another issue. Getting draft picks for potential free agents is not necessarily a good thing for the Rays. Sure, adding young talent is always welcomed, but even late first round picks cost money (see LeVon Washington). The Rays already have four high picks in next year's draft. If they aren't able to sign all four they will receive an addittional compensatory pick(s) in 2011. This will be in addition to their regular pick and any potential picks received from free agents with "type" status( Crawford, Pena, etc.). That could end up as a lot of money for unproven talent; or on a few picks not wasted, per se, but picks not maximized due to budget restrictions.

Once more, Pena is still a good player and even at $10 million dollars should still provide value, but for a Rays team looking to cut corners in places to improve others, a look in his direction is smart business. Replacing Pena wouldn't be easy, but it wouldn't be as hard as say, replacing a Carl Crawford.

For example, Russell Branyan is a free agent. Coming off a 2.8 WAR season, Branyan could give you similar production for probably half the cost. Branyan is also looking for a two-year deal, so he may not be ideal. The Rays could go the platoon route and find a dance partner for Willy Aybar. Another former Ray, Eric Hinske could work well with Aybar. Or the Rays could go the unconventional route and move Ben Zobrist to first allowing Sean Rodriguez to get the bulk of the time at second base. I could go on rosterbating, but you get the point.

There are the intangibles: leadership, smile%, pre-game dances, and between pitch mound meetings, but in terms of things we can measure, exploring a deal involving Pena seems prudent for a team that is constantly working around the big payroll elephant in the room.

The Last Man Sitting

Erik Hahmann — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 11:15:31 -0000

One of the more interesting story lines of this offseason, to me at anyway, will be the competition for the last remaining bench spot*.

*This is barring any major trades or signings before opening day

The Rays came into 2009 with a fairly strong bench consisting of Ben Zobrist, Gabe Kapler/Gross, Willy Aybar, and Shawn Riggans. Although he was already getting semi-regular at bats, Ben Zobrist was thrust into the starting lineup when Aki Iwamura went down with a knee injury in late May. That injury forced the Rays to call up players like Reid Brignac and Joe Dillon to warm the now vacant bench spot. Shawn Riggans suffered his usual injury set back which allowed Michel Hernandez a roster spot until the Zaunbie Nation came to Tampa Bay. The bench was obviously stretched out more than the Rays would have liked last season but it did an admirable job. The options for 2010 will offer a slightly different cast of characters.

Fernando Perez:

-Perez has long been one of my favorite Ray players, but that’s been more for his talents off the field than on it. A useful reserve outfielder for most teams, Perez may be forced out of a roster spot with the Rays thanks to a likely Matt Joyce/Ben Zobrist platoon in right field. Perez would be better served playing every day in Triple A and working on the next great American novel instead of wasting away at the end of the Rays bench.

Reid Brignac:

-The probable shortstop of the future, Brignac does have an option left and would no doubt be better off playing full time at Durham than riding the pine in St. Pete. Unless the Rays trade Jason Bartlett I don't see Brignac beginning the year on the Rays bench.

Gabe Kapler:

-Kapler is an interesting candidate. He doesn't yet have a contract for 2010, but the Rays would be in need of a right handed outfield bat coming off the bench. Kapler earned $1m last season and did job very well, putting up an OPS of .931 against left handed pitching. If Kapler is willing to accept another contract of $1m, or maybe a little less, I think the Rays have to seriously consider bringing him back.

Willy Aybar:

Aybar will undoubtably be a member of the Rays' bench in 2010 as the primary backup at 3B/1B. Even though Aybar rated uncharacteristically poor at every defensive position he played in 2009 he isn't a liability with the glove and his bat more than holds its own. The addition of Sean Rodriguez will drastically cut into the amount of games Aybar sees at second base next season. His salary of $1.35m is very reasonable for the production he provides.

Sean Rodriguez:

The main piece in the Scott Kazmir trade, Rodriguez will likely be the platoon partner of Ben Zobrist at second base and is able to backup Jason Bartlett at shortstop. He'll strike out enough to get the local fans to boo him, but his versatility and power bat should be enough to assure himself of a bench spot in 2010.

Matt Joyce:

I see Matt Joyce being a part of what I'm calling the Ben Zobrist Platoon menage a trois. Joyce starts in right field against right handed pitchers while Zobrist starts at 2B. Against southpaws Joyce would sit in favor of the switch hitting Zobrist, while Rodriguez would play second base. Joyce spent most of 2009 in AAA and played well enough to earn a promotion, not to mention the fact that Gabe Gross and Gabe Kapler are not likely to return.

Catcher:

The plan for a starting catcher is still up in the air, so I'm even going to begin to speculate on who the backup will be, but obviously there will be one on the roster.

I'm not sure which direction the team will go, but I'm strongly in favor of the re-signing of Gabe Kapler. They could go with a four or five man bench next season depending on how they decide to structure the bullpen. If they choose a four man bench I think Rodriguez, Aybar, Kapler, and Catcher would be the best fit to begin the season. If they go five then I would lean toward Fernando Perez to fill the last spot, if only for his pinch running abilities. No matter who they choose or how they structure it, the Rays will once again have a cost effective and productive bench in 2010.

Akinori Iwamura and Free Agency

R.J. Anderson — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 10:00:34 -0000

More photos » by Gail Burton - AP

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The reign of Akinori Iwamura in Tampa Bay has been an interesting one. The second - and most recent - player the Rays went on the Japanese market to acquire, following failure of the utmost degree with the immortal Shinji Mori. Winner of multiple gold gloves at third, there was talk of Iwamura playing other positions down the road, especially with that Evan Longoria guy making a strong debut in the minors. His skill set included quickness, left-handed batting, and a strong willingness to force walks.

He arrived from a land famous for its phallus and showcased flash. Spiked hair, jewelry, sunglasses with headphones built in, alligator skinned gloves, and designer bats with golden rings painted on. He was, to quote something I wrote way back when, more Americanized upon arrival than country mates Hideki Matsui and Ichiro. Despite all of that Iwamura has never been much of a distraction. Well, usually.

His spring debut went about as swimmingly as the Titanic's maiden voyage, yet when the games actually counted Iwamura started his American career by reaching base in twelve consecutive games. Replacing B.J. Upton and Ty Wigginton at third base, Iwamura flashed the agility of a cat. His range and arm were nothing fantastic - as we've seen - but Iwamura possesses footwork beyond expression. Few players can duplicate Iwamura's ability to dive, leap to his feet, and record an out as fluently. Naturally this lead to some inflation on his defensive abilities, but hey, he was the best defender the Rays featured at the position in a while.

Iwamura made his first appearance at second base during the final game of 2007 and would move into the spot full-time entering 2008. He would bat leadoff for most of the season but miss some time with an eye injury. The incumbent starter in 2009 Iwamura would suffer a knee injury on a collision and returned late in the year.

He has a club option for next year that will fetch him a quarter of a million either way with the possibility of an additional four million if exercised. Few circumstances exist in which Iwamura wouldn't be worth 4.25 million next year. The issue is the Rays depth at the middle infield positions. You have to figure Ben Zobrist starts at second base, Willy Aybar is cheaper than Iwamura, and there's Reid Brignac and Sean Rodriguez to fit into the puzzle as well. Maybe Iwamura could play some corner outfield in the same manner as Zobrist, but that would mean taking a roster spot from either Rodriguez or a true reserve outfielder.

This leaves the Rays with a situation in which they must either decline Iwamura's option and therefore allowing him to find a gig on his own without compensation, or exercise the option and look for a suitor via trade. In a vacuum this is easy. Iwamura is a predictable performer with a desirable skill set and salary. There's a list of pros and cons to simply keeping him around. Maybe Zobrist flat lines, maybe Rodriguez strikes out too much, maybe Aybar decides he would rather learn Sanskrit than play baseball next year, and so on.

At the same time, Iwamura is coming off a rather serious injury and is on the wrong side of 30. His salary looms in a reserve role and the chances that he is a win better than Rodriguez, Aybar, etc., in limited action is doubtful at best. Plus the opportunity cost must be considered. This isn't simply: Iwamura or Rodriguez? This is Iwamura or Rodriguez and four million dollars to spend on the free agent market - which, in theory and usually in practice, should equate to roughly an additional win added.

Everything seems to produce a sum in which Iwamura will be playing baseball elsewhere than St. Petersburg next season. If that come to fruition, it'll be hard to find reasons to describe his tenure as anything but successful.

Just Call Him Average Willy Aybar

Tommy Rancel — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 17:00:19 -0000

by Reinhold Matay - AP

6 months ago: Tampa Bay Rays' Willy Aybar reacts after crossing the plate following a solo home run in the fifth inning of a baseball game against the Los Angeles Angels in St. Petersburg, Fla., Wednesday, June 10, 2009. The Rays won 9-5. (AP Photo/Reinhold Matay)

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Less than 12 months ago Willy Aybar was crowned by Dave Cameron, as well as many others, the BBIMLB or the best backup in Major League Baseball. And who could really argue with that. At the time Aybar was 25 and coming off a 2008 season in which he hit .253/.327/.410 in 362 PA. He was worth a 1.4 WAR and his production was valued at $6.3 million dollars while earning near league minimum.

Defensively, he filled in admirably at first base when Carlos Pena broke his hand after he was hit by a pitch (Pattern? Trend? ), and then did the same across the diamond at third when Evan Longoria also broke a bone in his arm on a HBP. He even played well in limited time at second base which led some to think out loud about him replacing Akinori Iwamura full-time after this season.

Flash forward to present day and Aybar is no longer regarded at the BBIMLB. In fact, some "casual fans," as Stu Sternberg would say, have even called for Aybar's head. Offensively, Aybar remains steady and has hit .252/.338/.420 in 261 PA. He continues to hit left handed pitching well to the tune of .244/.351/.476. However, it's the defense that has people up in arms about the man acquired for Jeff Ridgway.

Whether you look at the above average numbers of 2008 or the below average numbers of 2009, remember they are both small sample sizes.

2008	G	Innings	UZR	UZR/150
1B	19	155	2.3	19
2B	10	70.2	0.5	11.4
3B	41	358.1	2.4	8.1

2009	G	Innings	UZR	UZR/150
1B	11	66	-0.1	-1.7
2B	28	139.1	-3.8	-22.9
3B	15	105	-1.1	-7.9

To get a better understanding, here are his career numbers. Still small sample, but larger compared to the individual seasons

Career	G	Innings	UZR	UZR/150
1B	30	221	2.1	13.2
2B	59	331.2	-1.7	-5.2
3B	137	1093	-0.9	-1

The sample size at third base is almost a full season and Aybar is slightly below average at the hot corner. This leads me to believe that the numbers at first base are probably a good indication of his talent level on that side of the diamond since it is the easier of the two. While the second base sample is still small, the addition of Sean Rodriguez and the emergence of Ben Zobrist makes the Aybar at second base talks unnecessary. Sure, he can still fill in short increments at the keystone, but there's no need to give him extended time given the other (better) options available.

Despite better offensive numbers, Aybar's spotty defense has his WAR at 0.2 this season. With the injury to Pena, I would expect him to get some more burn at first base to end the season. Assuming he will play average defense and hit like he has, he will probably end the season being worth $1.0-1.5 million. With a salary of $975k, Aybar remains a valuable asset. In 2010, his salary jumps to $1.35 million. If Aybar is worth a 0.5-1.0 WAR in 2010, he'll cover that easily. Assuming his experimentation at second base is over and he sticks to playing the corner infield, his defense should not be an issue going forward.

No longer is Aybar baseball's best kept secret. Once Sean Rodriguez gets called up, he most likely won't even be the team's best bench player anymore. But don't be fooled, he is still valuable. TThere is a chance that Gabe Gross won't be around next season. Should that happen, Aybar will gain another distinction; the most average player on the Tampa Bay Rays.

Not that there's anything wrong with that.

The Rays Have Nine Above Average Positional Players

R.J. Anderson — Mon, 24 Aug 2009 16:00:20 -0000

The method is pretty simple for determining whether a player is above or below league average. Take his Replacement runs on his FanGraphs page and subtract it from his Runs Above Replacement column. If the difference is greater than zero, then the player is indeed above average, if the difference is in the negative, then the player is below average. Here's how the Rays current positional players stack up:

Name	Pos	Replacement	RAR	RAA	Above Average?
Ben Zobrist	2B/OF	14.7	63.5	48.8	Yes
Evan Longoria	3B	16.9	52.9	36	Yes
Carl Crawford	OF	17.9	48	30.1	Yes
Jason Bartlett	SS	13.6	42	28.4	Yes
Gabe Gross	OF	8.8	17.2	8.4	Yes
Carlos Pena	1B	17	22.9	5.9	Yes
B.J. Upton	OF	17	21.6	4.6	Yes
Gabe Kapler	OF	5.9	8.5	2.6	Yes
Gregg Zaun	C	1	3.1	2.1	Yes
Willy Aybar	2B/DH	8	5.2	-2.8	No
Pat Burrell	DH	11.4	1.8	-9.6	No
Dioner Navarro	C	11.1	-1.2	-12.3	No

Quick thoughts:

Ben Zobrist is the team MVP. He's a full win better than Evan Longoria to this date and that's staggering.
Evan Longoria is ridiculously talented at baseball and holy crap name your children after Andrew Friedman.
Notice how Gabe Gross has a lower RAR than Carlos Pena and B.J. Upton but a higher "RAA"? That's because he plays less, which is shown in the Replacement column. Gross is good.
Gabe Kapler is good.
I was hesitant to include Gregg Zaun because the sample size is ridiculously small, but I knew people would ask where he ranks if I didn't.
Pat Burrell has been poor.
Dioner Navarro has been homeless.

Also, before someone makes a comment that reflects on zero understanding about how Replacement Runs are figured, read this.

Pat Burrell Exits Game With Injury; Jeff Bennett Optioned, Chad Bradford Ready

Tommy Rancel — Sat, 15 Aug 2009 12:26:51 -0000

A couple of injury related notes from last night's loss. The neck injury that sideline Pat Burrell for 29 games earlier in the season was re-aggrivated during last night's game. Willy Aybar replace Burrell and there is a chance he could miss tonight's game. Burrell is still struggling at the plate, but has shown signs of power recently. His ISO for the last 25 games is a more Burrell like .241.

In an unrelated move, Jeff Bennett was optioned to Triple-A Durham. It was presumed that Bennett's optioning would make room for Chad Bradford, who is ready to return from the DL. However, with Burrell's injury the Rays may opt to call up a position player like Justin Ruggiano or Matt Joyce to help an already short bench. I find it odd that the Rays have carried eight pitchers for so long especially when they had an option on Bennett.

Once Again, Can We Petition Bud Selig to Shorten Games to Eight Innings?

jessef — Sat, 25 Jul 2009 22:31:36 -0000

More photos » by Darren Calabrese - AP

Marco Scutaro tries to explain to Aaron Hill how leverage index works. Even though Hill homered twice in the game and was worth two full batting runs above average, striking out with the bases drunk and behind by one in the bottom of the twelfth means you get the Hinske. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Darren Calabrese)

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Jays lose another one-run game, this time in extra innings. Apparently, an 8-0 lead after five innings and a 9-0 lead after six is not enough. The Rays chipped away in the seventh with four runs, the eighth with two and eventually managed to tie up the game in the ninth with homeruns by Carlos Pena and Willy Aybar off Scott Downs.

The Rays plated the winning run in the top of the 12th against Shawn Camp (who was pitching his second inning) off a Jason Bartlett double. The Jays loaded the bases with one out for Aaron Hill in the bottom of the 12th, but he struck out. Adam Lind rolled over to end the game.

On the bright side, this does mean that the Jays did manage to plate nine runs in the first six innings, aided by four homers (two by Hill and one each from Rios and Bautista). Millar and Overbay combined for an 0-6, though Millar did pick up an RBI.

It's kind of hard to write about this one, I am still sort of reeling from this loss, so I'll cop out and just add the win-probability graph:

via www.fangraphs.com

Jays of the Day: Scutaro (.155), Rios (.130), Frasor (.143) and Tallet (.104 even though he yielded five runs over six innings because the Jays had already scored nine runs). Honorable mentiont to Bautista and League.

Hinske award goes to Lind (-.306), Hill (-.213 in spite of hitting two homers) and Overbay (-.106)

Batista award goes to Downs (-.279) and Shawn Camp (-.148, who took the loss)

By the way, guys, this isn't the best way to convince Doc that he should stay. Maybe we can pick up a win and avoid the sweep tomorrow when Brett Cecil takes the mound against Jeff Niemann.

Scott Kazmir Makes Ground Meat of Royals; Leaves With Forearm Cramp

R.J. Anderson — Sun, 19 Jul 2009 04:12:26 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Riedel - AP

Zack Greinke gave up double digit baserunners in seven innings. The sky might fall.

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The Scott Kazmir rejuvenation tour made another stop tonight and we witnessed an entirely different pitcher. He wound up walking one more than he struck out, but 12 of his 17 balls in play were of the ground ball variety. Kazmir's fastball apparently averaged 93 miles per hour and topped out at 95.2. That looked way too good to be true, so I ran tonight's average velocities against the data provided to FanGraphs by Baseball Info Solutions. Here's what I got:

Pitcher	Tonight	BIS	Net
Kazmir	93.4	89.9	3.5
Choate	89.7	87	2.7
Chen	88.6	86.1	2.5
Bradford	80.3	77.9	2.4
Cruz	96.4	94.1	2.3
Wheeler	90.2	88	2.2
Colon	95.5	93.7	1.8
Balfour	94.7	93	1.7
Greinke	94.9	93.7	1.2
Bale	89.6	88.6	1
Howell	86.6	85.8	0.8

An average of 2 MPH gained and not a single pitcher had down velocity. That means Kazmir was probably closer to 91 and topped out at 93. That or the rest did everyone really, really well.

The strikeout and velocity figures don't reflect how hack-inducing Kazmir's stuff was though. 11/101 pitches ended with swings and misses. Despite swinging out of the zone a lot, the Royals do make a fair amount of contact when they swing. So it's probably fair to say Kazmir should get the share of credit for the whiff rate. Let's look at Kazmir's stuff.

(Yes, that ‘slider' is most likely a fastball)

Everything looks just about right. Kazmir's fastballs have a clear two-seam/four-seam cluster effect working. They were getting very good rise and run towards lefties. His slider had some nice break towards righties. Kazmir's velocity remained constant throughout the game, 94 (unadjusted) on his final fastball of the night.

He left the game with "cramps in his lower left forearm". It's reportedly minor. His performance certainly didn't show many signs of serious injury.

Other thoughts:

The Royals defense is really, really poor.

Willy Aybar took advantage with four hits, three singles. Pat Burrell added a double, Ben Zobrist had two singles, and B.J Upton rounded out the multiple hit brigade with three singles.

Chad Bradford's BABIP entering tonight was .571. It only went up. It'll only go down.

Oh and watching Greinke: wow, just wow. Just give him the AL Cy Young.

Willy Aybar Leads Rays To Victory In Longoria's Absence; Matt Garza shuts down Jays again

Tommy Rancel — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 13:00:10 -0000

Back on Christmas Eve 2008, Dave Cameron said of all the non starting major league players that deserved a full-time job, Willy Aybar stood out from the rest of the pack. Over six months later, Aybar still remains ahead of the pack. Filling in wherever needed, Aybar has accumulated 170 plate appearances this season. All he has done is put up the best numbers of his career. After last night's three hits including his seventh home run, he is hitting .287/.382/.483 with 14 extra base hits. He also has as many walks (23) as strikeouts (23).

Most teams would be panicking to replace a player of Evan Longoria's caliber, but for the Rays all they need to do is just pencil Aybar's name in. A switch hitter, Aybar just fills in, becomes the Rays #3 hitter and the offense doesn't miss a beat. While Longoria remains one of the best defenders at third base, Aybar is an adequate replacement despite what "local experts" say.

Longoria's cranky hamstring is going to be an issue for the next few weeks; however, Aybar's steady play should ease some of the pain. After signing an extension worth a possible three years and $4.8 million dollars this offseason, Aybar has produced 0.9 WAR or $4 million dollars worth of production so far. He won't grab many headlines, but Aybar likes to keep it on the "low" anyway.

B.J. Upton got things started early last night hitting a solo home run on the first pitch of the game. It was Upton's seventh home run of the season and his fifth in June. It was also the team's 39^th home run for the month of June, setting a new team record for jacks in a single month. As the weather has heated up, so has B.J. With his shoulder finally healthy, Upton hit .324/.395/.562 with 15 extra base hits in 120 plate appearances for the month. Maybe those who vote for team MVP should take note that with a healthy Upton the Rays went 19-7 in June; I'm just saying.

Carl Crawford continues to torment Toronto's pitching staff. CC hit his second home run of the series, his eight of the year. Like Upton, Crawford also hit five home runs in June and finished a slugging percentage of .500 or better for the second straight month. His power looks to be blooming, however his speed has been lacking a bit. After starting the season a perfect 30-30 in steals, CC went 10-16 in June and grounded into four double plays. There haven't been complaints publicly, but you have to wonder if the turf is taking its toll on his legs once again.

I don't know if a day off is in Crawford's future, but Ben Zobrist returned from a semi-day off. After missing most of Monday's game (9^th inning defensive replacement), Zobrist officially went 1-1 last night, however he reached base three times (two walks) and drove in a run via sacrifice fly. Jason Bartlett also had a hit, but whiffed twice on two pitches that were about four feet off the plate. Even MVP's have a bad game here and there. The Rays were once again a little too aggressive on the bases with a caught stealing and a pickoff, however the bats again were mighty with three home runs and two doubles.

The Rays got another stellar start from Matt Garza, who scattered seven hits and allowed just one run over seven plus innings. Like Jeff Niemann the night before, Garza didn't strike out many (3) and relied heavily on his defense. Once again he threw over 70% fastballs and maintained velocity throughout. Garza averaged 95 mph on the fastball and maxed out at 97.4. His last pitch of the game registered above 96 on the gun. There is something about Garza and the Blue Jays. In his last six starts against Toronto he has allowed just two earned runs in 45 innings; call it blue magic.

James Shields takes the mound against Ricky Romero in the matinee finale. The Rays have pulled three games ahead of Toronto and are now just four games behind Boston. They could do some serious damage to the Blue Jays psyche with a sweep today. The Jays are just 6-11 against the AL East while the Rays are 15-12.

Final note: Don't call J.P. Howell a closer, just call him the Iceman; six games "chilled" and counting.