SB Nation - Pedro Martinez

Jon Lester is Both Underrated and Overlooked

ltrain2 — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 15:00:52 -0000

Just days removed from being named the Red Sox's Pitcher of the Year, as voted on by the Boston chapter of the Baseball Writers' Association of America, Jon Lester once again finds himself lost amidst some of the more established names that help make up Boston's starting rotation.

Despite his recent accolades, the signing of Lackey leads many to regard Lester as the team's number three starter by default, behind both Lackey and Josh Beckett.

The initial reaction to John Lackey's 5-year, $82.5 million dollar contract was geared towards its effect on Josh Beckett -- his expiring contract a particular area of interest in the matter. However, the extra motivation provided by Lackey is not lost on the other member of the "big three," Jon Lester.

Who are the best left-handed starting pitchers in Major League Baseball?

Present the above question to almost any baseball fan outside of Boston and you'll likely hear the same few names; Cole Hamels, Johan Santana, Cliff Lee, and C.C. Sabathia. In very few instances will Jon Lester's will be offered as an answer, and certainly not before the aforementioned names, an injustice that is likely to change very soon.

As stated earlier, the Red Sox recently signed the top available pitcher via free-agency, John Lackey, to a long-term deal worth over $80 million dollars. With Josh Beckett eligible for free-agency himself following the 2010 season, many have speculated that Boston may potentially be preparing to part ways with the right-hander who has been regarded as the staff ace for the last few years, leading many to wonder what effect Lackey's contract will have on Josh. Does Lackey provide Beckett with an added element of motivation to prove that he is still the 'ace' of the Sox's rotation? There's no doubt that the situation merits a high level of interest, but once again, we seem to be overlooking someone.

Let's look at some numbers over the last two seasons. Who's the real 'ace' of the following two pitchers?

Record ERA IP CG SHO BB SO WHIP

Pitcher A: 27-16 3.94 386.2 5 2 89 371 1.19

Pitcher B: 31-14 3.31 413.2 4 2 130 377 1.25

It's hard to make a truly convincing argument for either of the two. However, consider this statistic (brought to us by Baseball Prospectus):

STUFF Rating- A rough indicator of the pitcher's overall dominance, based on normalized strikeout rates, walk rates, home run rates, runs allowed, and innings per game. "10" is league average, while "0" is roughly replacement level. The formula is as follows: Stuff = EqK9 * 6 - 1.333 * (EqERA + PERA) - 3 * EqBB9 - 5 * EqHR9 -3 * MAX{6-IP/G),0}

Pitcher A: 30 rating (10th in the league in 2009 amongst pitchers with at least 150 IP)

Pitcher B: 39 rating (4th in the league in 2009 amongst pitchers with at least 150 IP)

Starting to lean towards Pitcher B?

As you may have guessed by now, Pitcher A is Josh Beckett. Pitcher B? Jon Lester. Again, I ask, who is the real 'ace' of the Red Sox's rotation heading into 2010?

As I did entering last season (evidence found here -- always fun to look back at these), I predict that Lester will yet again be the Red Sox's most valuable pitcher next year, as well as an early favorite to win the American League's Cy Young Award.

While many debate who is the Red Sox's number one pitcher entering the season, not everyone even bothers to include Lester in the discussion. I am by no means belittling the importance of Josh Beckett to Boston's rotation, and in no way am I saying that Lester should be considered the unanimous choice as the Sox's 'ace', but how about just a little recognition outside of the city of Boston? What has become lost in all the talk surrounding Lackey's effect on Beckett is just how Lester will respond this season.

My guess is that Lester uses his uncanny ability to fly under the radar to again post numbers that will make him a strong consideration for not only his third-consecutive Red Sox Pitcher of the Year Award (something that has never been done before), but a front-runner for the Cy Young Award as well. In the event that Boston makes the post-season again in 2010, will Lester be handed the ball for ALDS Game 1, as was the case in 2009 against the Angels? Although only time will tell how that scenario plays out, I know who I want with the ball. I think the 2010 regular season will change the minds of those who are not already in agreement with me.

Imagine being named your team's Pitcher of the Year for the second consecutive season (a feat only accomplished in Boston one time prior to Lester doing so [Pedro Martinez], and never before by a left-handed pitcher) only to find yourself still struggling to even be seriously involved in discussions regarding who your team's 'ace' is?

How's that for added motivation?

Poll

Following the addition of John Lackey, who becomes the Red Sox's 'ace' in your opinion?

The 2009 Off Season's Impact On The Future

ltrain2 — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 13:04:42 -0000

by Elise Amendola - AP

Boston Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein, right, and manager Terry Francona are concerned with much more than just the matters related to 2010's team.

View full size photo »

The Red Sox, beleaguered by talks of a 'bridge period' earlier this off season, caught fans slightly by surprise with their recent flurry of activity within the MLB's Hot Stove Market. Marco Scutaro's arrival in Boston may not have warranted much commotion given the nature of his contract (the length in particular), but the lucrative 5-year deal awarded to pitcher John Lackey has some questioning the exact direction that general manager Theo Epstein is taking the club and the future of pitcher Josh Beckett in particular.

After a very quiet beginning to the Winter Meetings, the Red Sox designated nearly $25 million for next season's payroll with the additions of Mike Cameron and John Lackey alone, moves that will certainly effect those that subsequently follow -- both this season as well as the next.

What does this mean for the likes of Josh Beckett and Victor Martinez, both with expiring contracts, especially considering the addition of Lackey and the potential free-agency of catcher Joe Mauer? With over $50 million in expiring contracts coming off the books following this season, how will management approach the free-agent class of 2010, considered by many to be one of the deepest of its kind in relation to available impact players? If this season is still considered a bridge to the future, then what can fans expect to see from the front office at this time next year?

At the moment, Boston's payroll is hovering around the $170 million dollar mark for the 2010 season (which includes the money owed to former shortstop Julio Lugo). The following players are in the final year of their current contracts; David Ortiz, Mike Lowell, Josh Beckett, Victor Martinez, Jason Varitek, and Julio Lugo -- contracts that total $55 million. Assuming that Boston doesn't restructure any of the deals involving the aforementioned players, that gives management a large sum of financial freedom to address the incoming class of free-agents, a group that boasts talent trumping that which is offered in this year's crop.

Many have likened the situation to that which resulted in the Red Sox's 2007 World Series Championship. Prior to that season Epstein spent nearly $210 million ($209.1 to be exact) in acquiring J.D. Drew, Julio Lugo, and Daisuke Matsuzaka.

Again, with the assumption that none of the following players are awarded new deals during the upcoming season, here's a look at the free-agent class of 2010: Joe Mauer, Carl Crawford, Lance Berkman, Cliff Lee, Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Carlos Pena, Brandon Webb, Jayson Werth. It's a safe bet that someone like Jeter will be retained by the Yankees, but even that scenario leaves a slew of All-Star caliber talent available for the taking.

Similar to last season when the Yankees cleared themselves of nearly $70 million in contractual commitments that led to the signings of C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and Mark Teixeira, and ultimately a World Series Championship, Boston will find themselves in a very enviable position heading into next year's Hot Stove action.

It's a safe bet that Boston decides to let the contracts of Varitek and Lowell expire, but what about Josh Beckett and Victor Martinez?

After the signing of John Lackey, Theo Epstein immediately sent a text message assuring Josh Beckett that the addition of Lackey will in no way effect Boston's interest in re-signing him. However, we've seen this before, and nobody can blame Beckett for remaining skeptical regardless of how convincing Epstein may have appeared. After acquiring Curt Schilling in 2003, management sent a similar message to then staff-ace Pedro Martinez, who also found himself entering a contract year at that time. Martinez was not a member of the Red Sox in 2005 as management was never able to work out a deal to retain the right-hander, leading many to question Beckett's future in Boston. John Lackey received a 5-year deal worth $82.5 million dollars this off-season, raising speculation as to how serious the team is about keeping Beckett. It's hard to ignore the likenesses between Lackey and Beckett as pitchers, and with Lackey receiving a contract similar to that which Beckett is expected to command; did Boston simply sign Lackey to replace Beckett upon his departure? The situation is eerily similar to that which led to the end of the 'Pedro era' in Boston.

Victor Martinez is considered a very valuable commodity amongst the Red Sox's lineup. Martinez's ability to play both catcher and first base at a high level makes him just that much more appealing to the Red Sox, who currently owe him just under $8 million this season, making him widely considered one of the best bargains in baseball. However, there has been a lot of discussion recently surrounding the potential trading of first baseman Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox by the San Diego Padres. If that happens, how will it effect the way in which Boston approaches Martinez's expiring contract? With the versatile slugger likely to command big money in the open market, will Theo then shift his focus to Joe Mauer, assuming that he isn't re-signed by Minnesota this season? With Gonzalez coming to Boston in this scenario, Martinez's ability to play first base becomes less relevant in relation to addressing the team's need for a catcher. It's no secret that Theo loves the type of player that Mauer embodies, and with good reason, as Mauer is regarded as one of the best all-around talents in baseball. Martinez is an ample catcher, but Mauer is a great one. Couple that with the upgrade that Mauer would represent offensively as opposed to V-Mart and it's not a stretch to assume that the Red Sox would rather utilize a good sum of that newly available $55 million on the former MVP/All-Star/Batting Champion/Gold Glover [Mauer].

On the other hand, it's worth mentioning that there has been some speculation that the Red Sox may plan to invest in both Martinez and Mauer, shifting Victor to first base and affording them a more than acceptable option behind the plate on days that they would decide to rest Mauer. Obviously this scenario becomes more likely in the event that Adrian Gonzalez is not acquired via trade.

Another key element that makes Martinez less of a necessity is the availability of Lance Berkman and Carlos Pena next off season, both viable options to fill the void at first base in the event that Boston is unable to retain Martinez. Similarly, Beckett's contract demands may become less appealing given the pending free-agent status' of pitchers Cliff Lee and Brandon Webb and the newly acquired Lackey.

Jacoby Ellsbury and Clay Buchholz may also find their time in Boston heavily influenced by the free-agent class of 2010 and the moves made to this point in 2009. Both players have been mentioned in discussions surrounding potential trade scenarios involving Adrian Gonzalez. Does Ellsbury become more expendable with Werth and Crawford being available next season, as well as the recent signing of Mike Cameron? Does Buchholz become easier to part with given the potential signing of Aroldis Chapman and the potential free-agency of both Lee and Webb?

Every move that management makes from here on out must be calculated and will be heavily dependent on other deals that are or are not completed. For instance -- the addition of Lackey aside, even the situation at the catcher position effects the likelihood that starting pitcher Josh Beckett remains with the Red Sox.

Joe Mauer is believed to be in line to receive one of largest contracts in baseball history from whomever he decides to sign with. Therefore, if Martinez opts to explore free-agency and Boston decides to make a push for Mauer, it becomes less likely that they do so successfully while still being able to afford Beckett. Again, John Lackey's signing plays a major role in this as well. It's easier to let Beckett go and pursue Mauer with Lackey locked up for five seasons, and harder to justify retaining Beckett with the same thing in mind.

Going full-circle, it's easier to let Martinez walk with the addition of Gonzalez. In the event that Gonzalez is acquired, it becomes more feasible that Boston goes after Mauer, letting Martinez go and possibly making a concerted effort to retain Beckett.

It is still my belief that the Red Sox are pushing hard to acquire Adrian Gonzalez. In a previous article listed here, I explain that the Red Sox's moves to this point lead me to believe that Gonzalez is the most important player currently on Boston's radar. For one, signing Aroldis Chapman could help justify trading a young pitcher like Buchholz. Also, given the Red Sox's payroll commitments for 2010 and their still-glaring need to acquire a power-hitting corner infielder, the friendly nature of Gonzalez's contract for the next two seasons makes him the most appealing option for Boston if they truly desire an impact player to fill that void while still remaining within the $170 million dollar payroll goal set by Epstein.

However, the Gonzalez trade would be a blockbuster-type deal and is anything but a certainty. In the event that no progress is made in relation to Gonzalez, I think that Boston will shift their attention away from Beckett for the time being and make Victor Martinez their primary focus this season in terms of restructuring any of the expiring contracts. Talks with Martinez will likely correspond with the progress made by Minnesota in retaining Mauer. If it appears that Mauer will re-sign, Martinez should become priority number one in Boston. In the event that Mauer and the Twins cannot find common ground, the Red Sox will assess how badly they want to pursue Mauer, whether it be via trade or during the 2010 off season.

The point being that the signing of John Lackey, as well as any move made from this point on, does more than impact the future of Josh Beckett and the outlook of next year's club. Each move shifts the potential makeup of the roster for years to come. The job of a general manager is one of the most stress-inducing positions in sports for a reason and is not for short-sighted individuals. You can bet that Theo Epstein and the rest of the front office are making every move during the course of this off season with the next one in the back of their minds.

Poll

Who will most likely be a member of the Boston Red Sox in 2011?

Josh Beckett and John Lackey: Today's Schilling and Pedro

Randy Booth — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 18:00:18 -0000

More photos » by Mark J. Terrill - AP

3 months ago: Los Angeles Angels starting pitcher John Lackey throws to the plate during the first inning of a baseball game against the Oakland Athletics, Sunday, Aug. 30, 2009, in Anaheim, Calif. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

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It's safe to say that the Red Sox signing John Lackey came as a surprise to the entirety of Red Sox Nation. No one saw it coming. Theo Epstein didn't even hint at it coming. He held his cards as close as possible to his chest and then threw down two aces to take the pot.

It was a bold, calculated move.

And we've all seen it before, especially here in "The Nation": bold, calculated moves put shiny rings on your fingers.

It didn't click with me right off the bat what John Lackey means to the Red Sox. Yes, he's an ace. Yes, he could be the No. 1 pitcher for almost any baseball team in the world. Yes, he has one of the highest-paid right arms in the world.

It's not that simple, though. There's so much more to Lackey as a Red Sox.

Do you remember 2004? I know it sounds like a stupid question to ask a Red Sox fan, but let me rephrase to something a little more specific. Do you remember 2003? Specifically, the end of the year? To give you an exact date, it was Nov. 23, 2003.

That was the day the Red Sox traded for Curt Schilling.

Talking about Lackey and Schilling in the same breath should stir up some similarities. Beyond the physical (both bigger guys), they are both pitchers that wanted the ball every day. Hurt or broken, it didn't matter. They're feisty pitchers. They're loud pitchers. They will say what's on their mind and slam their fastball down your throat.

That's just how they do things.

But Schilling's presence in 2004 was more than his ability on the mound. It's what he brought to the team. Namely, he brought competition. His opponent? Pedro Martinez.

From Seth Mnookin's book, Feeding The Monster:

No one was more upset by [Curt] Schilling's arrival than Pedro Martinez

[...]

For all his light-heartedness, Martinez was also driven by an irrational (and slightly contrived) fear of being disrespected and the Red Sox's pursuit and acquisition of Schilling gnawed at him. Boston, afer all, was supposed to be his town. "I can't help that they wanted to sign Schilling," Martinez said in February

[...]

Martinez's wounded pride could, potentially, have been a good thing for the Red Sox. Martinez was most effective when he felt as if he had something to prove...

[...]

With Schilling on board, Martinez wondered if the Red Sox were planning on keeping him around beyond the 2004 season, and without a contract, he was both hesitant to risk further injury and worried about giving the impression he was less than totally healthy.

Pedro, on the downward slope of his career, was pushed by Schilling. Pedro thought he was the team's ace; not Schilling. Pedro thought he was the star; not the new guy. Pedro still had a lot left to prove with the team he's been with for many years.

The same rings true for Josh Beckett.

Beckett is a lot like Pedro, Schilling and Lackey. He's a true competitor that wants to just play baseball until his arm falls off. He'll yell, scream and throw pitches at players' heads as a warning sign if that is what needs to be done. It boils down to this: he wants to prove he's great. He doesn't want anyone else to be better than him, even if it is a teammate.

The similarities between Schilling/Pedro and Lackey/Beckett are there. Schilling and Lackey came on as an ace from another team. Pedro and Beckett have been aces for the Red Sox, until the new guy shows up and wants to prove what he can do. Pedro and Beckett are also entering the last year of their contracts when the new guy shows up.

Pedro went on to have a great season in 2004 (not quite "Pedro-esque," but still a great season). Schilling and Pedro, together, went on to lead the Red Sox to their first World Series championship in 86 years. Beyond what Schilling did on the mound, do you think he had a bigger effect on that championship?

Of course there are differences between Schilling/Pedro and Lackey/Beckett. One, is that in 2004, Schilling and Pedro were better overall than Lackey/Beckett is today. Lackey and Beckett are two of the best pitchers in the majors today, but back in 2004 -- and the years prior -- Schilling and Pedro were just out of this world. We all know of Pedro's dominance, but Schilling was right there, too.

From all accounts, it seems like Beckett wants to be with the Red Sox in the future. His contract is up after this year, but Theo Epstein has already told him -- actually, texted him -- that Lackey's signing has no barring on his future. (Similar sentiments were shared with Pedro, as well.)

Lackey's presence puts a fire under Beckett's butt to perform. Both -- with Jon Lester, can't forget about him -- are going to battle to prove they are the team's ace. This, as you could already tell, should lead to good results for both the individuals and the team.

I have a good feeling this year about Lackey, Beckett and the Boston Red Sox. How are you feeling?

Rule 5 Applesauce - Rangers Sign Harden, Worrying About Pelfrey, Boras Speaks And Twitter Is Still Ridiculous

James Kannengieser — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 12:45:08 -0000

Former Rule 5 picks include Dan Uggla and our own Johan Santana, so you never know what gems might be found.

Meet the Mets

The Mets pick 7th in today's Rule 5 Draft. Check out Mark's list of potential picks from a few weeks back. MLBTradeRumors also offers up a preview.

Scott Boras says the Mets have the financial resources to sign any player they choose. He's probably right. The organization's real problem is determining which players to sign.

John Harper recently perpetuated the myth that Mike Pelfrey took a major step backwards in 2009, despite evidence that suggests otherwise. Ted Berg and Matt Cerrone weigh in on the topic.

Metstradamus riffs on the debunked Pat Burrell rumor and the possibility of signing Elmer Dessens. This had me laughing:

Funny how neither Dessens, Blanco, Pedro Martinez, Carlos Baerga, Mackey Sasser, nor anybody else with "intangibles" needed to be in the room to mentor Oliver when he signed that $36 million contract. Weird, huh?

Patrick Flood offers up his take on the inevitable Bengie Molina/Mets relationship.

Mets Police comments on the Sports Illustrated All-Decade team, which Carlos Beltran and Johan Santana were named too. MP also implies he would rather have Wally Backman on his team instead of Jeff Kent due to their respective effects on team chemistry. I'll take the probable Hall of Famer.

Around the NL East

Jayson Stark tweets that the Braves are only asking for prospects in return for Derek Lowe.

The Marlins traded Matt Lindstrom to the Astros for two minor leaguers and a PTBNL.

Federal Baseball wraps up the Nationals activity at the winter meetings.

The Good Phight is holding out hope for a Roy Halladay trade. Halladay, Lee and Hamels would be frightening and probably unstoppable.

Around MLB

The Royals offered Jason Kendall a two year contract. Umm, what?

The Mariners signed Corey Patterson to a minor league deal. Walkoff Walk has some advice for M's manager Don Wakamatsu regarding Patterson.

The Astros signed Brandon Lyon for three years, $15 million. Seems a bit excessive.

Mike Cameron's agent says his client has a special place in his heart for Seattle. Too bad the Mariners already have an awesome center fielder.

The Rangers signed Rich Harden and traded Kevin Millwood to the Orioles for Chris Ray. Evan Brunell at The Hardball Times weighs in.

Oakland A's 2000-2009: All-Decade Team and Best Moments

baseballgirl — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 16:00:16 -0000

Interested in the Warriors? Golden State of Mind is holding one of their huge events on Friday January 8th. There's a rumor of a great special guest. Thought I'd pass it along...

via farm1.static.flickr.com

Decade posts are all the rage lately, so we're going to do our own. You may have seen this post from Big League Stew on Yahoo, naming their MLB All-Decade team. It is pretty much what one would expect; Posada (C), Pujols (1B), Kent (2B), Jeter (SS), A-Rod (3B), Bonds (LF), Ichiro (CF), Vlad (RF), Manny (DH), Pedro Martinez and Randy Johnson (SP), Rivera (Closer). I can't really argue those names, but I thought we could make up an all-decade A's team, and share favorite moments of 2000-2009.

To refresh your memory:

2000 Roster
2001 Roster
2002 Roster
2003 Roster
2004 Roster
2005 Roster
2006 Roster
2007 Roster
2008 Roster
2009 Roster

My Picks:

Catcher:

Ramon Hernandez - He was the catcher during the A's golden years of 2000-2004; he caught Mulder, Hudson, and Zito, and was a big part of getting the A's to the playoffs.

First Base:

Jason Giambi - Need I say more? Not only was Giambi one of the best players in the league during his heyday, but he has had less than zero competition the in years since he left.

Second Base:

Mark Ellis - Ellis started in 2002 for the A's, and played the rest of the decade, with the exception of 2004. A tremendous defensive player, with some good offensive years, Ellis is the only player to really choose in this category.

Shortstop:

Miguel Tejada - Tejada, like Hernandez, played for the teams of 2000 to 2004, and his position on the A's has never been successfully replaced. This is a no-brainer call as well.

Third Base:

Eric Chavez - Like Ellis, Chavez has been the name filling the position for the entire decade, but over the last few years, it has literally been in name only. Still, when he was good, he was good, and a big part of the A's early 2000 playoff runs.

Outfield:

This was where my little experiment got really fun. Can you think of outfield stars on the Oakland A's from 2000-2009? Are we left with Terrence Long? Did Jermaine Dye play long enough--and was healthy enough--to count? What about Mark Kotsay? This was a struggle.

I've narrowed it down to: Mark Kotsay and Nick Swisher for sure. The third spot could go to either Jack Cust or Jermaine Dye, with an honorable mention to Eric Byrnes. What do you think?

Designated Hitter:

Frank Thomas - Yes, Thomas played one year of the 2000's with the A's. It was an awesome year. He wins my vote.

Starting Pitchers:

RHP: Tim Hudson - Hudson takes this for his years with the A's early in the decade. Honorable mention to Dan Haren.

LHP: Barry Zito - His Cy award and his victory against Johan Santana in 2006 seal this spot for me. Honorable mention to Mark Mulder.

Closer: Huston Street. I'll save Andrew Bailey for the next decade.

Manager:

Can I abstain from a vote? Of course I think Ken Macha made his share of mistakes, but Art Howe certainly made some questionable decisions (with much better teams) as well. To paraphrase a player on the Twins in 2002; "We (the Twins) couldn't beat lefties this year, why did Hudson start twice, when Mulder and Zito were in the series as well?" Match that series fail against Ken Macha's use of Mecir/Rincon in the infamous Zito game to lose the AL West to the Angels and Macha hitting Melhuse/Long against the Red Sox with the tying run on third and less than two outs, and it's a tough call. I pick...Stomper?

Worst Moment of the Decade:

I know there will be probably be votes for the Jeter flip, but on some level, I figure that was a one-in-a-million baseball play; it didn't make or break the series itself, and the run in question would have only tied the game. Far worse to me was watching Jermaine Dye break his leg, or Mecir and Rincon being chosen to relieve Zito, with Hudson waiting in the wings for a one-game winner-takes-all start. But the very worst back-to-back at-bats were turned in by Long and Melhuse against Derek Lowe and I pick those combined at-bats as the worst moment of the decade. I was there in person for all of the above events, and that one definitely hurt the most.

Best Moment of the Decade:

This was a really, really tough call. Apparently, I attended a lot of A's playoff games in this decade, since I was also there in person for both of these picks too. My runner-up award goes to the Ramon Hernandez two-out, bases-loaded bunt against the Red Sox in extra innings. Not only was it a complete surprise to everyone on the Red Sox and the fans in the park, but it won the first game of the series for the A's, and may have given them the momentum to take the subsequent day game, as well.

However, considering that the A's could not close out the series, it takes a little luster out of the moment looking back. Which is why my number one moment is this, which needs no introduction:

Strange, since this wasn't even a game-winning hit, but somehow it captured the moment when all of the A's fans in the park realized that this wasn't going to be another ALDS ending in heartbreak; that the A's were going to the ALCS for the first time in a decade and a half. Coupled with the goosebump-inducing cheer of "Marco" "Scutaro" from the entire stadium, this moment elicites warm and fuzzy feelings that can still be regenerated in the current tough times.

We continue the winter meetings all this week, but I thought we could share some A's moments of the decade as well. Best? Worst? What/who am I missing? What would you change?

New York Yankees notes: About that budget ...

Ed Valentine — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 13:03:53 -0000

Oh, boy! Not 48 hours after we heard that our New York Yankees would have a budget of about $185 million for the 2010 season, word is already out that the number is "not a hard ceiling." Who did not expect that? We should know by now that there is never a hard ceiling on Steinbrenner money, and I know I'm OK with that.

We know that re-signing Andy Pettitte is General Manager Brian Cashman's first priority this off-season, as it should be. As a backup plan, it seems the Yankees are likely to check in with just about every available free-agent starting pitcher on the planet.

NY Baseball Digest thinks all of this speculation is bad news for fans of Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain in the rotation. To me, that's a classic over-reaction to a team simply pouring over its options during the middle of the off-season.

Robinson Cano, by the way, has an idea for the rotation. He would like to see Pedro Martinez in pinstripes.

"I say he's got some more in him. He'd be good (with the Yankees), especially with the kind of team we got," said Cano. "We score, most games, four or five runs. Guy like him, we only need him like five, six innings."

Thank God Cano is a second baseman and not a general manager. Pedro would be a desperation move, and the Yankees are not desperate.

By the way, the Winter Meetings start today. Jayson Stark of ESPN looks at what he sees as the top five plot lines for the meetings.

I'm not a John Sterling fan, but Zell's Pinstripe Blog points out a fun link to a clip of Sterling's most memorable calls of the 2009 post-season.

Finally, the New York Daily News tells us Alex Rodriguez is enjoying being a champion.

Free Agent Starting Pitching: BCB Weighs In

roguejim — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 14:51:33 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

I am Carl Pavano --- no one gave up more earned runs last year in all of baseball last year than I. But I command you to look only at my peripherals! Look at them! Yesss...stare longingly at my sweet sweet peripherals. Love them! (AP Photo/Pat Sullivan)

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It just occurred to me that the Winter Meetings are coming up fast, and we haven't told Doug Melvin which two free agent pitchers we wanted. (Frankly, that's probably how the Hardy/Gomez trade went down: we didn't specifically tell DM for whom Hardy should be traded, and he went rogue and made the trade himself.) Assuming we can't (and shouldn't!) get into a bidding war on the services of John Lackey, which two of the free agent pitchers listed below should we try to sign, and why? Be sure to consider salary when choosing.

(Note 1: I'm not including the likes of Mulder and Halama, as you can't sign them and assume they'll win a spot.)

(Note 2: I haven't seen much written about Kelvim Escobar, who hasn't had an ERA north of 4 since 2003. The Red Sox are asking about him, the Brewers should too.)

(Note 3: Shawn Hill is cheap, a sinkerballer, often injured, and one of the few ex-Expos out there not yet 30. A perfect flier for the Brewers.)

Here's the list:

Aroldis Chapman, LHP who throws 100 MPH, albeit erratically
Randy Wolf
Rich Harden
Erik Bedard
John Smoltz
Andy Pettitte
Joel Pineiro
Jarrod Washburn
Ben Sheets
Brad Penny
Justin Duchscherer
Pedro Martinez. Vote for Pedro!
Doug Davis
Jason Marquis
Jon Garland
Vicente Padilla
Carl Pavano
Braden Looper
Randy Johnson
Mike Hampton
Hisanori Takahashi
Paul Byrd
Ugh...I'll opt for choosing only one free agent and trading Gamel for the other

What Can Be Learned From the AL MVP Voting?

Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 15:40:29 -0000

More photos » by Reinhold Matay - AP

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On Monday afternoon, I fully expect Joe Mauer to win his first MVP award after finishing sixth in 2006 and fourth last year. Joe led the AL in batting average while hitting for respectable power (28 HRs) in only 138 games, most of which were as a catcher. He led the Twins into the postseason after they trailed by three games with only four games left, thereby forcing and winning a playoff game with Detroit.

Other than Mauer winning, I expect Mark Teixeria to finish high in the voting after leading the league in HRs and RBIs (categories that have traditionally been important to voters). I also expect Derek Jeter to finish high even though he doesn't have great traditional stats this season (.334 AVG, 18 HR and 107 runs scored). He did have one of his best years with a 7.4 WAR value, his highest since Fangraphs began keeping track and his third-highest total when compared to Rally's WAR ranking.

Truthfully, I have no problem giving the award to Mauer. He had a great season and helped the Twins to the playoffs. The real question with today's vote, to me anyway, is where do Zack Greinke and Ben Zobrist end up in the rankings?

Using WAR values as a guide, both Zack (9.4 WAR) and Ben (8.6 WAR) had a better season than Joe (8.4 WAR). The problem is that the mainstream media is barely touting if at all Greinke or Zobrist. Going to MLB.com, Zack gets an honorable mention while Ben gets no mention (though four of Ben's teammates got mentioned: Evan Longoria, Jason Bartlett, Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena). At cbssportsline.com and USAToday.com they have no mention of either Greinke or Zobrist.

Two groups of internet voters have released their results. SBN, our parent website, had a vote and Zack came in sixth overall, while Ben came in second. When the Internet Baseball Awards released their results, Zack came in fourth and Ben came in sixth. I really don't expect either of these players to finish as that high in the final votes with the BBWAA, even though no two players in the AL did more to help their team win games this last season.

Let's look at how Zack and Ben final voting placement can say something about the makeup and thought process of the BBWAA.

Zack Greinke - Do pitchers even matter in the MVP voting?

Here is a little background on how pitchers have done in the MVP voting:

Since 1956, when the Cy Young Award was created, a pitcher has won the MVP Award 8 times or 8% percent of the time. Before the Cy Young was created, pitchers won the award about 1 in 5 times (19%).
The last pitcher to win the MVP was Dennis Eckersley in 1992.
Since 1992, the average final position for the top pitcher vote getter is 8.4, with Pedro Martinez about winning the award in 1999 by finishing with only 3% less vote than Ivan Rodriguez.

There is not much precedent for MVP voters voting for pitchers, especially ones with 16-8 records. The average finish of the top pitcher in the MVP voting has been between the 8th and 9th spot, so this makes a good dividing line to see if the writers noticed Zack's great season (despite the horrible defense and run support he had all season). Zack had the 31st highest ranked season ever in ERA+ with 205, which is the highest total since 2003 when Pedro Martinez finished with an ERA+ of 210.

If Zack finishes eighth or higher, hats off to the voters. If ninth or lower, shame on voters.

Ben Zobrist - Do name familiarity and defense matter in the MVP voting?

Before the season, many people were familiar with the final MVP candidates, but few were familiar with Ben, and the few that knew of him didn't expect great production. Offensively, his 2009 season was nothing to laugh about (9th in the AL in Runs Created), but his defense is where he separated himself from the others for the top WAR values for positional players. He had a UZR rating of 26.4 which was good for 2nd best among all position players in the AL.

The question is, "Will any of this production really matter." Even though the Internet voters gave Ben quite a bit of love, I can see the BBWAA giving him a cold shoulder. I would be surprised to see him break the top 10. I really want to see the percentage of voters that put him in their top 5. This will give a nice understanding of the percentage of voters that look at and use WAR (or similar metrics) to compare players. If the percentage of voters that put Ben in the top 5 is above 10%, I will be amazingly surprised.

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The award season for MLB is a nice time to look back at the the players that had a great season. The problem is that sometimes players that should receive recognition don't.

Right Player, Wrong Season

Jeff — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 21:08:24 -0000

Since 2000 - covering the last ten years - there have been 428 American League starter seasons with at least 150 innings pitched. Here's how Felix's 2009 ranks among them:

ERA: #5
FIP: #17
Combined*: #8

* (2*ERA + 6*FIP)/8. A quick and dirty way of still giving starters some credit for their context pitching. This stat sucks and please never use it.

Of course, neither ERA nor FIP are adjusted for park, so Felix gets a boost, but he was still excellent, and the unfortunate coincidence that Zack Greinke was better doesn't take away from the fact that Felix still had a Cy Young-caliber season. No reason to be disappointed.

The top three AL starter seasons since 2000: Pedro Martinez 2000, Pedro Martinez 2002, and Pedro Martinez 2003. Pedro Martinez 2001 would have qualified had he thrown another 33.1 innings. Between 1999-2003 - covering five years, 135 starts, and 933 innings - Pedro ran a 2.10 ERA and 1.94 FIP. He allowed 133 runs between 1999-2001. Jose Contreras and Scott Olsen allowed 134 runs in 2007. This really happened.

Congratulations ScottAZ -- Winner of the 2009 Good Phight World Series Prediction Contest

David S. Cohen — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 18:46:07 -0000

The World Series is over, and the results of the 2009 Good Phight World Series Prediction Contest are in. Congratulations to ScottAZ for getting 6 points in the context. FuquaManuel tied ScottAZ, but as the rules state, I did a random drawing and ScottAZ won. I'll be contacting ScottAZ shortly about the prize.

Here are the answers to each question asked in the contest.

Cliff Lee wins: 2
Ryan Howard home runs: 1
Shane Victorino and Jimmy Rollins stolen bases (combined total): 3
Eric Bruntlett plate appearances: 1
Phillies starting pitcher innings not by Cliff Lee or Pedro Martinez: 10.3
Brett Myers innings pitched: 1
Jimmy Rollins walks: 5
Brad Lidge saves: 0
Alex Rodriguez hits with runners in scoring position: 2
Mariano Rivera runs allowed: 0
World Series outcome (victor and # of games): Yankees in 6

A couple of entries are worth noting. Sept.28.Oct.27.Dec.28.2008 had 5 points, the highest point total for an entry not guessing the correct outcome of the Series. (Both ScottAZ and FuquaManuel guessed Yankees in 6, which was worth 3 points.) And Phils 2036 World CH guessed correctly that Jimmy Rollins would have 5 walks, something I consider an absurd guess and outcome!

Thanks to all for playing. Let's do this again next October!