SB Nation - Duaner Sanchez

Monday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Mon, 18 May 2009 15:12:32 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Manny Parra, center, gathers with his teammates to discuss their blatant disrespect for the game and untucked shirts.

Browse more photos »

Some things to read while waiting for lunch.

If all had gone according to plan, the Brewers would be enjoying an off day on the road today and getting ready to open a series with the Astros tomorrow. Instead, they're in St. Louis waiting for tonight's makeup game, and probably won't get to Houston until early tomorrow morning. Some notes on tonight's game:

Kyle Lohse, who pitched the first couple of innings of Friday's rainout, will start for the Cardinals.
He'll face Braden Looper, who has something to prove to a Cardinal organization that decided not to pursue him after the 2008 season.
Tonight's game will be televised in HD.

Rickie Weeks will not be with the team tonight. He left last night's game in the first inning with a sore left wrist and will travel to Phoenix to get it checked out by the specialist that performed the previous surgeries on his right wrist (Also noted in FanShot). Barring something unforeseen, Weeks is expected to rejoin the team tomorrow but doesn't know when he'll be ready to play.

Jason Kendall enters today's game with 1999 career hits. If he picks up a hit in the next couple of days, he may reach 2000 before Todd Helton.

Saturday's game was the Brewers' third 1-0 contest of the season, and they're now 2-1 in those games. Trevor Hoffman picked up the save in that game: UmpBump has a look at his early success and Adam McCalvy reports on a prank Hoffman pulled on Ken Macha over the weekend.

Of course, a fair amount of the credit for Saturday's shutout goes to Jeff Suppan, who pitched seven innings and allowed just eight baserunners. The Bucky Channel says Jeff Suppan is making them like him.

How much credit for the Brewers' early success belongs to Ken Macha? Jeff Fletcher of MLB FanHouse sees Macha's fingerprints in some of the changes in the team's philosophy, and also offers some insight into the role of third base coach Brad Fischer.

When will we get to see Mat Gamel? No one seems to know. FanGraphs was excited to see him come up, but he has just one plate appearance in three games as a Brewer, and none since Thursday. Ken Macha has said Gamel wasn't just brought up to ride the bench, but Saturday's game saw Craig Counsell pinch hitting instead in a key situation, and Todd Coffey was allowed to hit for himself in the late innings yesterday.

David Riske threw 30 pitches in the bullpen before Saturday's game and could be headed out for a minor league rehab assignment in the near future. With the strength of the current bullpen, that could be a very long rehab assignment.

Elsewhere in the minors:

Cody Scarpetta threw five hitless innings for Wisconsin yesterday, and sat down with The Official Site's Mason Kelley to talk about his philosophy.
Mike Burns, who wasn't expected to start the season in the rotation for Nashville in the first place, improved his record to 6-0 with a win yesterday.
Cutter Dykstra, #11 in our prospect rankings, was demoted from Wisconsin to Helena over the weekend, and will learn to play second base at that level (h/t Rattler Radio). Helena's season doesn't open until late June, so Dykstra will spend some time in extended spring training breaking in an infielder's glove.

Balking Traditionalism reports the Brewers are second in the NL in Wins Above Replacement, and Summer Loving moved them up to fifth in their power rankings.

Here's a nice note on the fan-friendliness of the Brewer organization: The Brewers charge a $2 "convenience fee" for the right to purchase tickets online, the lowest in all of baseball.

Nearly a week has passed, but blogs continue to pile on The Happy Youngster, as they should. The Biz of Baseball, Miller Park Drunk and True Blue Brew are just three of the dozens of sites that have taken note.

Around the league:

Marlins: Designated John Koronka for assignment.
Mets: Signed catcher Javier Valentin and reliever Tom Martin to minor league deals, and placed Carlos Delgado on the DL with a hip impingement.
Nationals: Designated reliever Logan Kensing for assignment, placed catcher Jesus Flores on the DL with a bruised shoulder and DL'ed starter Scott Olsen with shoulder tendinitis.
Orioles: Placed Luke Scott on the DL with a sore left shoulder.
Padres: Claimed infielder Josh Wilson off the DL from the D-Backs and designated reliever Duaner Sanchez for assignment.
Pirates: Acquired starter Eric Hacker from the Yankees for AAA reliever Romulo Sanchez and placed Tyler Yates on the DL.
Phillies: Designated Miguel Cairo for assignment.
Rangers: Are expected to sign reliever Mike Hinckley, who opted for free agency after being DFA'd by the Nationals last week, to a minor league deal. They also placed closer Frank Francisco on the DL with biceps tendinitis.
Rays: Placed Pat Burrell on the DL with stiffness in his neck.
Rockies: Reliever Matt Daley has been placed on the DL after tripping on a bat home plate umpire Bill Welke attempted to kick out of the way.
Tigers: Reliever Juan Rincon has declined a minor league assignment and is now a free agent.

By now, you've probably heard about yesterday's Rays-Indians game, where pitcher Andy Sonnanstine ended up batting third due to a scorecard mistake. Marc Lancaster has a list of Sonnanstine's feats.

Remember months ago, when we wanted the Brewers to sign Odalis Perez? After he refused to report to Nationals camp on a minor league deal this spring, he remains unsigned, and Jorge Says No! wants to know why.

Will Odalis Perez find a job before Cecil Cooper loses his? Cooper is having his decisions second-guessed in Houston, and it doesn't sound like his team is behind him at all.

Ben Sheets hasn't started throwing yet and says he hasn't started thinking about who he'll pitch for once he's healthy, but he was in Arlington over the weekend, paying a visit to Rangers' pitching coach Mike Maddux.

When you're as small at Tim Lincecum, as young as Tim Lincecum, you throw as hard as Tim Lincecum and you rack up as many innings as Tim Lincecum, I guess you shouldn't be surprised when your velocity falls like Tim Lincecum's.

This year, maybe you'll actually get some sleep in October: Major League Baseball is changing World Series start times to get the games going earlier.

Oh, and it's probably pretty difficult to bring a harp on the road.

Drink up.

Walking To A Sweep: Cubs 11, Padres 3

Al — Thu, 14 May 2009 22:33:01 -0000

More photos » by Nam Y Huh - AP

Bobby Scales, this is your moment. Revel in it.

Browse more photos »

I told BCB reader dat cub fan daver, who joined us in the bleachers for today's 11-3 Cubs blowout of the Padres, that "now you have to come back every day!"

It was that kind of day, as the Cubs swept a really bad Padres team and won their fourth in a row. Walks did most of the damage, as the Cubs drew four straight walks in the fifth inning and five that inning in all, sending eleven men to the plate and scoring six runs on only three hits. One of the hits was a two-run double by Bobby Scales, who sent another ball to the wall in the sixth. He drove in four runs in all and is hitting .444 in his brief major league career. He has now hit in all six games in which he's played, the longest streak by a Cub to start a career since Jerome Walton hit in his first seven games in 1989.

This isn't to say that Scales could win a Rookie of the Year award like Walton did (and we'd hope his career doesn't end as poorly as Jerome's), but this is a wonderful story. You already know the details of Bobby's 11-year minor league odyssey and the fact that he's only still in the majors due to the injury to Aramis Ramirez. If he keeps playing like this in A-Ram's absence, the Cubs will have some choices to make when Aramis returns. Not only is Scales playing well, but his positive attitude has to be rubbing off on his teammates. What a terrific story he is; you can't help but root for him, as I think everyone loves underdogs who succeed.

It wasn't just Scales today; Kosuke Fukudome also had two hits, as did Aaron Miles and Reed Johnson, and the Cubs drew ten walks off ex-Cub Chad Gaudin and three relievers (finally, Bud Black sent closer Heath Bell to the mound, and he didn't walk anyone). It was a close game till the fifth inning, with yet another Adrian Gonzalez homer tying the game at one in the fourth. This one made Sheffield (yes, this time for sure), although it probably wouldn't have on any other day. Today, the wind was blowing out to RF at a higher reported speed (16 MPH) than last night, but perhaps due to the lower humidity, the balls weren't carrying as much as they were last night. Gonzalez, who is now leading the major leagues with 14 homers, had the only dinger today.

On a beautiful, sunny, mid-60's afternoon, the kind we just don't get enough of in mid-May in Chicago, Ryan Dempster's pitching was as gorgeous as the weather. He had command of all his pitches, walked only two, and allowed just two hits apart from Gonzalez's homer. He won his third game of the year and lowered his ERA to 4.65 (still not great, but a third of a run cut off the 4.98 he entered the game with). Dempster also had two hits, including a sixth-inning RBI double that nearly wound up in the left-field seats. Jose Ascanio threw the last two innings, and apart from one mistake which Drew Macias deposited in the right-field bleachers, pitched well. He also had his first major league at-bat in the bottom of the eighth, which resulted, as you might imagine from a relief pitcher, in a strikeout.

My dad, who is 87 years old and in town this weekend, hadn't been to a Cubs game in probably 20 years, since I last brought him to the bleachers. He bought Jessica's tickets and enjoyed himself. I told him that he, too, needed to come back tomorrow, with the big win.

Leftover oddity from last night's game: San Diego's Duaner Sanchez (who got pounded today) had been announced to pitch the bottom of the 8th for the Padres, since their previous pitcher, Luke Gregerson, was removed for a pinch hitter in the top of the inning. Sanchez never threw a pitch because of the rain, but he is credited with an appearance.

Finally, I want to add my disgust over MLB's handling of the Milton Bradley suspension appeal. While the suspension was reduced to one game, the Cubs weren't notified until after today's game was already in progress; since Bradley was sitting on a scheduled day off today, he will have to serve the suspension tomorrow and miss the opener against Houston. I thought that in the case of the incidental contact made, that any suspension at all was not justified and probably made on Bradley's reputation rather than on the specific incident. To not eliminate the suspension is a slap in the face to the Cubs and Bradley. Fortunately, others have stepped up during the time Milton has been off, and Reed Johnson had a nice day today with two hits, so he can play CF again tomorrow vs. the Astros while Kosuke Fukudome, also hot, can play another game in RF. The Brewers beat the Marlins again today, so they are temporarily in first place, half a game ahead of the Cubs, who are currently tied with the Cardinals and Reds, pending the outcome of the Reds/Diamondbacks game tonight.

Onward to tomorrow and let's keep it going against the Astros (Astros, again?).

No RISP-onse, Failure to push home baserunners once again wrecks Rockies

Rox Girl — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 04:33:11 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

7 months ago: San Diego Padres pinch-hitter Luis Rodriguez, right, is congratulated by first base coach Rick Renteria after Rodriguez's RBI-single to drive in the go-ahead run against the Colorado Rockies in the ninth inning of the Padres' 4-3 victory in a baseball game in Denver on Tuesday, April 28, 2009. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

Browse more photos »

Painful as it is, consider the eight and ninth innings of tonight's 4-3 loss to the Padres.

Eighth Inning:

In the top of the eighth, with the Rockies ahead three to two. David Eckstein leads off with a double off of Alan Embree on the fourth straight fastball. Embree retires the next two batters Brian Giles and Adrian to get into a situation of runner on third, two outs, with Chase Headley at the plate. Two more fastballs later, Headley ropes a single, the score is tied and Embree is pulled for Huston Street who ends the inning.

In the bottom of the eighth, Ian Stewart walks and then advances to third with one out on an Omar Quintanilla single. After Yorvit Torrealba is hit by a pitch, Troy Tulowitzki comes up with the bases loaded and one out. On the second fastball he sees from Duaner Sanchez, he hits a weak grounder to short for a double play.

The optional conclusions that could be drawn from this?

Chase Headley is a better hitter than Troy Tulowitzki.
Duaner Sanchez is a better pitcher than Alan Embree
The Rockies weren't as lucky as the Padres with BABIP.

Ninth inning:

In the top half, Nick Hundley triples off Manny Corpas with none out. One out later, Luis Rodriguez singles. Padres lead 4 to 3.

In the bottom half, Dexter Fowler K's, Ryan Spilborghs pops out. Todd Helton doubles off of Heath Bell with two out and Garret Atkins than grounds into a force out for the third out of the inning and final out of the ballgame.

Optional conclusions?

Nick Hundley is a better lead off hitter than Dexter Fowler.
Heath Bell is a beter closer than Manny Corpas.
Luis Rodriguez is a better hitter and RBI man than Garrett Atkins
The Padres are luckier than the Rockies with BABIP.

These choices actually don't have to be mutually exclusive, more than one conclusion could be right. The Rockies have now dropped to 0-5 in one run contests, 7-12 overall.

via www.fangraphs.com

Tough luck for Jorge De La Rosa, who once again came up with an excellent start save the damage of one mistake pitch in the third inning.

Phillies vs. Padres: April 17-20 (four game series)

Matt Swartz — Fri, 17 Apr 2009 19:37:13 -0000

More photos » by Denis Poroy - AP

Chase Headley and Adrian Gonzalez lead the San Diego Padres into Citizens Bank Park to face the Phillies this weekend, after taking 2 of 3 from the Mets. Will the Champs fare better? (AP Photo/Denis Poroy)

Browse more photos »

The Phillies take on the Padres for four games at CBP this weekend. The Padres have gotten off to a pretty solid start at 7-3. The Phillies are even at 4-4. In my previous series previews this year, I have linked to the report on the Phillies that I did before the World Series, but I have updated that to fit more with the format I've been using to plot out our opponents. So this time after the jump, I'll have comments and details about all 50 players on both rosters for this series.

The pitching matchups:

Friday 7:05: Cole Hamels vs. Chris Young

Saturday 7:05: Brett Myers vs Shawn Hill

Sunday 1:35: Chan Ho Park vs (unnamed-- possibly Josh Geer as Walter SIlva will miss this start)

Monday 7:05: Jamie Moyer vs Kevin Correia

I preview the individual players after the jump...

PADRES

LINE UP

The Padres lineup is pretty left-handed on top, and pretty weak at the bottom. They have one solid power hitter in Adrian Gonzalez in the four spot, but he struggles agaist LHP. Gerut and Giles are the 1st and 3rd hitters and are also lefties with large platoon splits. The Padres have very few hitters who are legitimate power threats, which is fine for playing in Petco but leaves them not likely to take advantage of CBP. The bottom of their lineup is pretty weak and should be exploited. The Padres do not steal much, and no one in their lineup seems all that likely to be a basestealing threat. Everth Cabrera did steal 73 bases in 89 tries in single-A last year. He's the backup shortstop.

1) CF Jody Gerut (L)

projection average (proj): .280/.345/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8.5%
projected K/AB (k): 15%
career gb% (gb): 45%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 12%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): average all around
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): okay eye, doesn't swing much, makes pretty good contact
righty/lefty (r/l): .840/.639 ops-- k/bb ratios of 1.2 vs 2.2
home/away (h/a): somewhat better power on road but only marginally
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): only 6 of 10 steals last year

2) 2B David Eckstein (R)

proj: .275/.340/.350
bb: 7%
k: 9%
gb: 47%
iff: 12%
ifh: 7%
babip: pretty good on groundballs but pretty low on line drives, high groundball rate helps-- about average overall
s/c/z: very good contact and sees a lot of pitches in zone. swings at below average number of strikes but average number of non-strikes.
r/l: .700/.741 ops; k/bb is 1.2 vs 0.8
h/a: .738/.687
p/o: slight pull hitter but spreads ball around pretty well
other: used to steal bases more frequently but only tried 3 times last year and was caught once. He hasn't tried to steal yet this year. In 2007, he cut back to 11 attempts.

3) RF Brian Giles (L)

proj: .280/.375/.420
bb: 13%
k: 12%
gb: 37%
iff: 11%
ifh: 4%
babip: average overall
s/c/z: excellent eye and excellent contact skill
r/l: .966/.788 ops; 0.6 vs 0.9 k/bb
h/a: about the same
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

4) 1B Adrian Gonzalez (L)

proj: .280/.355/.500
bb: 10%
k: 21%
gb: 41%
iff: 5%
ifh: 2%
babip: above average, around .315, rarely pops out, though doesn't get many infield hits. power indicates he should do well on linedrives
s/c/z: swings at average amount of balls, but lets fewer strikes pass than other players; somewhat below average contact
r/l: .886/.743 ops; 1.9 vs 3.0 k/bb
h/a: far more power on road (park effects) but slightly better k/bb at home (1.9 vs 2.4) and better babip at home (.328 vs .283)
p/o: somewhat of a pull hitter but spreads ball around pretty well for power hitter
other: far more success against finesse pitchers

5) LF Chase Headley (S)

proj: .265/.345/.430
bb: 10%
k: 27%
gb: 38%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: projection systems have him high-- like .330s+, but it seems like it he should be around .310 or so, since even though he pops out rarely, he doesn't get many infield hits and his groundball rate was abnormally high last year. even then, given that his eye is nothing special and his contact skills aren't great, he's likely due for a drop-- i think his overall projections are probably high
s/c/z: not a great eye and prone to chase, poor contact skills
r/l: only 140 career PA as RHB so it's tough to know
h/a: not enough info, so far better away but mostly luck based stats
p/o: definite pull hitter both ways
other:

6) 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff (R)

proj: .275/.325/.455
bb: 5.5%
k: 20%
gb: 41%
iff: 6%
ifh: 4%
babip: average all around, low on groundballs and high on flyballs due to infield hit/fly rates
s/c/z: free swinger and chases a lot of pitches while at it, pitchers don't throw him that many pitches out of strike zone, despite that and somewhat low contact rate
r/l: typical
h/a: better on road, even at k/bb rates
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles against power pitchers

7) C Nick Hundley (R)

proj: .235/.285/.400
bb: 7%
k: 23%
gb: 37%
iff: 12%
ifh: 7%
babip: projected to be poor and tough to tell from small mlb sample size
s/c/z: average all around so far, it seems
r/l: very small sample size but 5.0 vs 2.9 k/bb difference
h/a: 3.1 vs 5.3 k/bb
p/o: spreads ball around pretty well
other: none

8) SS Luiz Rodriguez (S)

proj: .265/.325/.345
bb: 8%
k: 10%
gb: 48%
iff: 6%
ifh: 4%
babip: somewhat low since doesn't have much power, maybe .285ish
s/c/z: excellent contact and doesn't swing much
r/l: so far hasn't shown power righty at all and has shown a tiny bit lefty
h/a: .724/.603 ops
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

BENCH

The Padres keep only four players on their bench. Scott Hairston is a valid right-handed hitting power threat on the bench but the other three hitters are unimposing. Everth Cabrera is probably a pinch-runner type, as he stole 73 bases in single-A last year.

C Henry Blanco (R)

proj: .240/.290/.350
bb: 6%
k: 19%
gb: 37%
iff: 13%
ifh: 6%
babip: not much power and tendency to pop up; below average
s/c/z: good eye, okay contact
r/l: a little more power right-handed
h/a: a little better k/bb at home but fewer extra base hits
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

IF Edgar Gonzalez (R)

proj: .270/.330/.400
bb: 8%
k: 22%
gb: 46%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: definitely above average, rarely pops out and makes solid contact
s/c/z: great eye and good contact
r/l: k/bb of 4.7 vs 1.6; .685 vs .750 ops
h/a: typical given park effects
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

IF Everth Cabrera (S)

proj: .230/.300/.300
bb: 8%
k: 24%
gb: had groundball rates of about 60% in minors
iff: had infield fly rates of about 11% in minors
ifh: not clear in minor league data
babip: high in minors (around .350ish) but not really clear how that would translate especially with high infield fly rate; perhaps somewhat above average due to high groundball rate
s/c/z: not enough info
r/l: not really clear from minor leagues but seemingly better as lhb vs rhb based on k/bb numbers
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: stole 73 bases in 89 tries in single-A last year

OF Scott Hairston (R)

proj: .255/.325/.465
bb: 8.5%
k: 23%
gb: 36%
iff: 16%
ifh: 12%
babip: slightly below average, .290ish, since he pops out a lot, but good on groundball since he gets infield hits and decent on line drives as he has some power
s/c/z: slightly below average contact
r/l: 3.5 vs 2.5 k/bb; .712 vs .842 ops
h/a: a bit better at home in career but seemingly mostly luck so far
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

ROTATION

The Phillies will avoid Jake Peavy this weekend, which is quite fortunate for a four game series. They will have to face Chris Young on Friday, but as he is a flyball pitcher extreme, the Phillies will hope to turn those flyballs into homeruns in CBP. Young is less effective on the road. Shawn Hill is a groundball pitcher, but is pretty average overall. He doesn't rely on breaking stuff, so he shouldn't really be at a disadvantage facing the Phillies lefties. A third righty will face the Phillies Sunday, Walter Silva, who is not supposed to be very good according to the BP's projection, but maybe the scouts saw something in him. Kevin Correia pitches against the Phillies on Monday. He seems to be a pretty average pitcher in nearly every category, though he has pretty poor command against lefties thus far.

FRIDAY OPPONENT: Chris Young (R)

proj avg: 3.85 ERA, 3.85 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 28%
pitches: 75% fb, 18% sl, 5% ch, 2% cb
r/l: 2.6 vs 2.2 k/bb, .647 vs .674 ops
h/a: 2.8 vs 2.1 k/bb

SATURDAY OPPONENT: Shawn Hill (R)

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.6 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 74% fb, 14% cb, 7% ch, 6% sl
r/l: similar k/bb but lefties do better on contact
h/a: .681/.869 ops but 2.0 vs 1.9 k/bb

SUNDAY OPPONENT: Not yet determined, Walter Silva has forearm strain
POSSIBLE SUNDAY OPPONENT: Josh Geer (R)

proj avg: 4.70 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.0 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 64% fb, 22% ch, 14% sl

MONDAY OPPONENT: Kevin Correia (R)

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.7 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 60% fb, 27% sl, 9% ch, 4% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.2; .762 vs .819
h/a: similar

SKIPPING NEXT START ON SUNDAY: Walter Silva (R)

proj avg: 5.85 ERA, 5.0 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 42%
pitches: 39% fb, 38% sl, 16% cb, 7% ch
r/l: not enough info
h/a: not enough info

NOT FACING US THIS SERIES: Jake Peavy (R)

proj avg: 3.25 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 42%
pitches: 57% fb, 18% sl, 17% ct, 7% cb, 6% ch
r/l: 3.8 vs 2.6 k/bb, .603 vs .740 ops
h/a: .614/.737 ops's, 3.7/2.5 k/bb's

BULLPEN

The Phillies will benefit from the Padres' lack of lefties in the bullpen. Heath Bell's recent attack on ESPN is much appreciated, but he will become an enemy this weekend again as the Phillies are forced to deal with his swing and miss stuff, and his ability to induce groundballs. Duaner Sanchez was picked up after being released by the Mets, so his projections look good but he may not be. Cla Meredith is excellent at inducing groundballs, but he is far more effective against righties than lefties. The rest of the Padres' bullpen seem to be young and right-handed, and the Phillies could do themselves a favor to knock out the starters early and feast on the unspectacular young righties.

CL Heath Bell (R)

proj avg: 3.30 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 72% fb, 28% sl
r/l: 4.7 vs 2.2 k/bb but .687 vs .616 ops since more power surrendered to lhb
h/a: .573/.726 ops split but k/bb even

Duaner Sanchez (R)

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 47%
pitches: 46% fb, 31% ch, 19% sl, 4% cb
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.4; .679 vs .773
h/a: 2.1 vs 1.5 k/bb, .709 vs .735 ops

Cla Meredith (R)

proj avg: 3.70 ERA, 2.6 BB/9, 6.7 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 69%
pitches: 79% fb (I think sinkers count as fastballs on fangraphs), 18% sl, 3% ch
r/l: 4.3 vs 1.4; .612 vs .794: major ROOGY
h/a: .637 vs .721 and 2.9 vs 2.7 k/bb

Edwin Moreno (R)

proj avg: unprojected (last year 4.53 FIP in AAA)
gb: slightly above average in minors
pitches: so far in majors 48% fb, 18% sl, 12% ct, 22% ch
r/l: no major splits in minors
h/a: not enough info

Luke Gregerson (R)

proj avg: unprojected
gb: very high groundball rates in minors
pitches: 55% fb, 33% sl, 9% ch, 3% cb in majors so far
r/l: much better against righties and walks a lot of lefties in minors
h/a: not enough info

Edward Mujica (R)

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 28%
pitches: 67% fb, 9% sl, 6% cb, 2% ch, 17% sf
r/l: 8.0 k/bb vs righties, but mostly just no walks; 1.5 k/bb vs lefties in minimal experience
h/a: not enough info

Luis Perdomo (R)

proj avg: 4.90 ERA, 4.6 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 47% in AAA
pitches: ?
r/l: not enough info
h/a: not enough info

Eulogio De La Cruz (R)

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 4.2 BB/9, 6.7 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 57%
pitches: 78% fb, 20% ch, 1% sl
r/l: 12 bb and 4k in 45 PA vs lefties
h/a: not enough info

PHILLIES

LINE UP

The heart of the Phillies lineup leans further to the left than Ralph Nader. The rest of the lineup is pretty well balanced, but with Utley hitting 3rd, Howard hitting 4th, and Ibanez hitting 6th, managers have an advantage to use lefties against the Phillies in key situations. The team is absolutely positioned to mash righties well, and fortunately that is who they'll face this weekend-- the Padres have no lefties on their staff at all. Both of the switch hitters atop the lineup hit lefties a little better than righties, and the bottom of the lineup has two righties. The Phillies' catcher Carlos Ruiz is on the disabled list now with a strained rib cage, so Chris Coste and Lou Marson will be splitting time. Lou Marson is a pretty highly touted catching prospect who had an extraordinary year in AA last year, though has yet to hit for much power.

1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S)

projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb. otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.

2) CF Shane Victorino (S)

proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year

3) 2B Chase Utley (L)

proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters

4) 1B Ryan Howard (L)

proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep. also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though. probably above average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes. however, he is pretty good at distinguishing pulls from strikes despite the consensus on him. he makes terrible contact overall though
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!" in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably. his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp. he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip. i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road. very similar hr numbers. 2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominates flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate against them) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position

5) RF Jayson Werth (R)

proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year

6) LF Raul Ibanez (L)

proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none

7) 3B Pedro Feliz (R)

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes. swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home. likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related

8) C Chris Coste (R)

proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat

BENCH

Like their lineup, the Phillies' bench is much better from the left side. Dobbs and Stairs are two solid lefthanded pinch hitters with power. Stairs is by far more patient and is much more successful against lefties than Dobbs. From the right side, the Phillies have superutility man Eric Bruntlett. Bruntlett struggles mightily against RHP, but actually has very solid numbers against LHP. Bruntlett can be used as a counterswitch when managers bring in lefties to face Dobbs or Stairs. The Phillies other RHB on the bench is Miguel Cairo. He is not a very good hitter, but is flexible and can play many positions.

IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R)

proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb. he should be used as a counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

IF Greg Dobbs (L)

proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters. given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp. in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp. he should never see them. absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers

OF Matt Stairs (L)

proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency

IF/OF Miguel Cairo (R)

proj: .255/.315/.335
bb: 7%
k: 15%
gb: 45%
iff: 11%
ifh: 7%
babip: not much power so slightly below average
s/c/z: okay eye, maybe a little above average; makes good contact
r/l: 1.6 vs 2.0 k/bb; .647 vs .735 ops
h/a: virtually no split at all, somewhat better walk rate at home
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

C Lou Marson (R)

proj: .270/.345/.400
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 59% in minors in 08
iff: 7% in minors in 08
ifh: ?
babip: very above average in minors, bizarrely high on flyballs and groundballs, and this seems to be without a significant reason
s/c/z: ?
r/l: better k/bb in minors vs rhp but tough to tell
h/a: 0.7 vs 1.5 k/bb; much higher infield fly rate on road (10.6% vs 3.5%)
p/o: ?
other: high walk rate in minors may be at risk in majors if he doesn't develop power

DISABLED LIST: Carlos Ruiz (R)

proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey. his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lot
s/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers, currently on DL with strained rib cage, probably longer than 15 days as originally thought

ROTATION

The Phillies rotation finally got its first quality start on Thursday, albeit in a loss. Ace Cole Hamels has struggled with velocity and location in the early going. He had elbow soreness in Spring Training, but the MRI came back fine. He still struggled as he worked his way back and had a very bad starter in Colorado for his first start. He added in an extra throw day between starts this past week, and hopes this can help him with both the velocity and the location. We will have a better picture of where he stands over his next couple starter. Enigmatic Brett Myers starts Saturday night's game for the Phillies. His main struggles consistently come early on. If he can mix in his curveball better, he should be more successful. On the heels of a fabulous Spring Training, Chan Ho Park beat out three younger competitors for the last spot in the Phillies rotation and he will go Sunday. Towards the end of the Spring, I admit to endorsing his use in the rotation only because of how much better he had been than before in the Spring. Despite a biased sample of lower quality hitters, the difference in his K and BB rates was statistically significant. Park did not make me look too smart in his first start in the rain in Colorado. His trouble has always been retiring lefties, so his success will depend on his ability to get some of the Padres tougher lefties out. On Monday, Jamie Moyer will pitch Monday evening's game. The 46-year old has struggled somewhat early on, but hopes to rebound Monday.

FRIDAY STARTER: Cole Hamels (L)

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant. ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar. most likely he strikes out more at night.

SATURDAY STARTER: Brett Myers (R)

proj avg: 4.15 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 47%
pitches: 48% fb, 23% cb, 18% sl, 9% ch, 1% ct, 0.2% sf
r/l: .788 vs .747 ops despite 3.1 vs 1.95 k/bb; main issue is much higher HR rate vs rhb, slightly higher babip vs them as well; does not seem to be selection bias
h/a: .738 vs .800 ops; 2.7 vs 2.15 k/bb; slightly higher HR rate at home, but that is probably park factors as he surrenders far more doubles on road
other: HR rate is bizarre-- very few pitchers have the HR/Flyball rate he does. My personal suspicion is that statistics that don't exhibit much persistence despite what common sense suggests only do not exhibit persistence specifically because players make adjustments. If you throw fastball after fastball on the outside corner on every 1-2 count, the hitters will respond by hitting singles to the opposite field over and over again and your BABIP will go up. However, pitchers learn to mix up their pitches and BABIP ends up lacking persistence due to the constant game theoretical reaction that pitchers and hitters take. For Myers, his bizarre refusal to use his curveball early in the game leaves him especially vulernable to RHB who know it isn't coming. A little game theoretical mixed strategy would probably allow him to finally live up to his peripherals which suggest a low HR rate and borderline ace stuff.

SUNDAY STARTER: Chan Ho Park (R)

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

MONDAY STARTER: Jamie Moyer (L)

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets

NOT PITCHING THIS SERIES: Joe Blanton (R)

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games

BULLPEN

Lidge has been nowhere near as effective as the Phillies closer in the early going this year, but still has not blown a save despite letting two games come to within one run. His HR rate was the key to his improvement and he is likely due for some regression. However, that still leaves him as one of the best closers in baseball. Ryan Madson has stepped up to be an elite setup man recently, as his velocity improved mightily over the course of 2008 and has started strong in 2009. The Phillies will have to make do against LHB with J.C. Romero suspended through May. Scott Eyre, Jack Taschner, and J.A. Happ are the Phillies' lefties in the pen. Happ does not have especially difficult stuff against lefties, though, and will probably be the long man. Eyre and Taschner both should not face RHB, especially Taschner who exemplified that inability well against the Nationals on Thursday. Chad Durbin is somewhat streaky, but I've remained bearish on him for a while. He still is a reasonable middle reliever to use at times. Condrey is the other middle reliever, but he should not face lefties at all if possible. The Phillies' bullpen has been extraordinary since the beginning of 2008, and has kept them in games in 2009 thus far. It is due for some regression, but I suppose the rotation is due for some improvement as well.

CL Brad Lidge (R)

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Ryan Madson (R)

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all

Scott Eyre (L)

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Jack Taschner (L)

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 57% fb, 30% sl, 13% ch
r/l: 1.45 vs 2.2 k/bb; .754 vs .747-- large selection bias where he faces only very good lefties and not very good righties
h/a: .698 vs .797 ops; 2.1 vs 1.5 k/bb

Chad Durbin (R)

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise

Clay Condrey (R)

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

J.A. Happ (L)

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

SUSPENDED: J.C. Romero (L)

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB?9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

Kevin Towers interviewed on XX Sports Radio

jbox — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 16:06:37 -0000

XX Sports Radio: Kevin Towers Interview (MP3) [yesterday]

Darren Smith asks Towers about the chances of getting Strasburg: "As of right now it's less likely it will happen. Stranger things have happened... you look at our situation a few years ago...we ended up taking Matt Bush"
Towers is looking to take the third best player in the country in the draft.
Towers has liked the arm strength and quality of secondary pitches so far in the bullpen.
Cabrera is going to start yesterday.
Towers considers himself resourceful rather than a dumpster diver
It is important for someone to step up to protect Adrian Gonzalez in the line up or else no one is going to pitch to him. Towers thinks Headley will have a good year and Kouz will eventually get it.
Duaner Sanchez will be the 8th inning guy. Cla Meredith will be the 7th inning guy. "Cla to me is more of a right handed specialist"
"The best part of '09 being on at 1:05pm with Darren"

Know Your Foe: Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres

Poseidon's Fist — Mon, 30 Mar 2009 23:15:08 -0000

Arizona Diamondbacks

There are not many teams that are this close to solidifying their 25-man roster for the 2009 season. That is largely due to the small turnover the roster felt over the off-season. Gone are Orlando Hudson, Randy Johnson, Adam Dunn, Brandon Lyon and Juan Cruz but they were replaced aptly with Felipe Lopez, Tom Gordon, Scott Schoeneweis and Jon Garland as well as internal options.

via www.baseball-reference.com

Lineup:

All eight starters are already locked up for Arizona, and only Felipe Lopez differs from last year's line-up. The Diamondbacks hope the continuity and growth of their young hitters is enough to build a strong lineup. Even the line-up order is fairly set...Stephen Drew and Chris Young might swap positions against LHP.

Order	Player	Position	AB	BA	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA
1	Felipe Lopez	2B	552	.274	11	56	.349	.400	.335
2	Chris B. Young	CF	527	.260	25	77	.336	.482	.358
3	Stephen Drew	SS	532	.276	16	66	.340	.451	.346
4	Conor Jackson	LF	469	.296	14	75	.384	.465	.375
5	Justin Upton	RF	435	.257	16	60	.349	.444	.348
6	Chad Tracy	1B	445	.276	16	60	.339	.452	.346
7	Mark Reynolds	3B	468	.254	22	81	.333	.462	.347
8	Chris Snyder	C	332	.241	13	51	.344	.419	.340

Looking at wOBA, we can conclude the D-Backs line-up features zero elite hitters, one very good hitter (Jackson), five above average hitters (Young, Drew, Upton, Tracy and Reynolds) and two average hitters (Lopez, Snyder). That's a decent distribution, especially considering the relative youth of the line-up.

Arizona's line-up projects to score 4.924 runs/game (peaking at 4.959 arranged differently). That's the same as 797.7 total runs, which ranks them right in the middle of the NL West.

Bench:

The Diamondbacks bench is also very set. Eric Byrnes will remain an overpaid fourth outfielder, and pinch-hitter Tony Clark returns to continue blocking Minor League Player of the Year Josh Whitesell. Augie Ojeda fills in as the primary utility infielder, and Miguel Montero is an above average offensive back-up catcher.

Player	Position	AB	BA	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Miguel Montero	C	178	.256	12	54	.329	.419	.330
Eric Byrnes	OF	495	.259	17	60	.322	.428	.333
Tony Clark	1B/PH	206	.238	11	37	.326	.437	.336
Augie Ojeda	IF	274	.245	2	27	.334	.321	.303
James Skelton	IF/C	370	.246	5	40	.351	.346	.320

The final spot on the bench is between James Skelton and Ryan Roberts. Both can play catcher, so Montero could be utilized frequently as a pinch hitter. Skelton is a Rule 5 draft pick from the Tigers, so that gives him a slight edge over Roberts, who has had a very strong spring.

Rotation:

The theme continues, as all five starting pitchers are set in the rotation. Brandon Webb and Dan Haren return as the best 1-2 punch in the NL West. Doug Davis is an average #3 starter at best, but I like recently signed Jon Garland in the #4 starter slot. Youngster Max Scherzer will be the fifth starter to start the year. Given worries about his arm following a winter injury, manager Bob Melvin will take great care with the young gun.

Player	IP	W	L	FIP	WHIP	K
Brandon Webb	209	13	10	3.34	1.33	166
Dan Haren	203	12	10	3.41	1.23	190
Doug Davis	154	7	10	4.54	1.62	114
Jon Garland	187	9	12	4.48	1.50	102
Max Scherzer	83	5	4	3.84	1.29	94

The Diamondbacks' rotation is clearly a top two rotation in the division. If Tim Lincecum or Matt Cain falter after getting abused last season by Bruce Bochy, Arizona's rotation will easily pass the Giants as the class of the NL West.

Bullpen:

Chad Qualls assumes the closer role he probably should have had going into 2008 as Brandon Lyon left for Detroit. Tony Pena moves up to the set-up role, and former Washington closer Jon Rauch comes in as a solid 7th inning man. Scott Schoeneweis came over from New York to be Bob Melvin's LOOGY.

Role	Player	IP	W	L	FIP	WHIP	K/9
Closer	Chad Qualls	70	4	3	3.50	1.29	7.97
Set-up	Tony Pena	75	4	4	3.85	1.23	6.72
7th inn.	Jon Rauch	69	4	4	3.84	1.28	7.70
LOOGY	Scott Schoeneweis	48	2	3	4.71	1.60	6.00
Long Relief	Yusmeiro Petit	117	6	7	4.74	1.32	7.15
Relief	Billy Buckner	77	3	5	4.71	1.42	6.70
Relief	Doug Slaten	47	2	3	4.44	1.42	6.60

Yusmeiro Petit, today's starter is the favorite for the long relief role, though Juan Gutierrez still has a longshot chance for the role. Billy Buckner will probably be the mop-up reliever, and Doug Slaten is battling with Travis Blackley for the last spot. Once Tom Gordon returns from injury, he'll take that spot. That's a pretty solid bullpen.

Why the Diamondbacks will win the NL West:

This is the most balanced team in the division. Their entire pitching staff just might be the best in the division, and their offense is competitive if not spectacular. For a team with very few question marks, a step forward for some of their young hitters could be enough to push them to the top.

Why the Diamondbacks will NOT win the NL West:

They might be balanced, but the line-up will still rank near the top of the league in strikeouts and is still relatively weak. To wit: Arizona's #3 hitter, Stephen Drew has a lower projected wOBA than EVERY projected Rockies starter except Clint Barmes. Then consider their cleanup hitter (and best hitter overall)) failed to hit a home run in his last 201 at-bats last year. Not a misprint - his last one was July 27. The offense will be improved as a whole but it still won't be enough to compete with other NL West teams with more flash.

San Diego Padres

The Padres are absolutely the antithesis to Arizona. San Diego has more question marks in the last week of the spring than I've seen from any team in a long time. They are going to be bad. Very very bad.

via upload.wikimedia.org

Lineup:

The core of the lineup is set with Giles, Gonzalez, Kouzmanoff, Headley and Hundley down the middle.

Order	Player	Position	AB	BA	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA
1	Jody Gerut	CF	381	.278	13	45	.348	.449	.350
2	David Eckstein	2B	461	.269	4	32	.337	.347	.310
3	Brian Giles	RF	512	.266	12	60	.371	.398	.346
4	Adrian Gonzalez	1B	554	.283	28	91	.359	.500	.373
5	Kevin Kouzmanoff	3B	487	.273	20	76	.324	.458	.341
6	Chase Headley	LF	488	.258	14	61	.342	.410	.335
7	Nick Hundley	C	416	.224	14	61	.284	.375	.292
8	Luis Rodriguez	SS	291	.261	3	24	.332	.351	.309

The unproven Luis Rodriguez could get bumped in favor of Adrian Gonzalez' brother Edgar. If so, David Eckstein would slide over to shortstop. Jody Gerut's sole competition is the man that almost prevented Rocktober: Scott Hairston.

This line-up would be expected to produce 4.443 runs/game as constructed (or a max of 4.543 with optimal orientation). This equates to 719.8 total runs during the season. That means the Padres have the worst line-up in the division, although they trail San Francisco by just .005 runs/game.

You know the drill. Let's look at wOBA. From that we can conclude that the starting lineup features zero elite hitters, one very good hitter (Gonzalez), two above average hitters (Giles, Gerut), two average hitters (Kouzmanoff, Headley), two below average hitters (Rodriquez, Eckstein) and one terrible hitter (Hundley). Their line-up has a wider variety of hitters than the Giants' line-up, but it is still just as bad. They'll need some surprises up the middle to be a threat.

Bench:

Former Rockie Henry Blanco was signed to back up the young Nick Hundley. Edgar Gonzalez and Scott Hairston are guaranteed bench spots if they don't crack the line-up. San Diego also signed Cliff Floyd, who has switched from being the DH for the AL champion Rays to being stuck on the bench for likely the league's worst team.

Player	Position	AB	BA	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Henry Blanco	C	193	.223	4	22	.275	.321	.268
Everth Cabrera	IF	195	.205	2	10	.260	.259	.247
Edgar Gonzalez	IF	300	.266	5	33	.325	.381	.314
Scott Hairston	OF	333	.249	16	45	.322	.453	.338
Cliff Floyd	OF/1B	244	.246	9	36	.333	.407	.330

Of interest to Rockies fans, Everth Cabrera indeed looks to have a roster spot lined up after the Padres traded Chris Burke yesterday. Matt Antonelli, Emil Brown and Will Venable will see playing time throughout the season as well.

Rotation:

Jake Peavy will be the Opening Day starter for the fourth straight year. Chris Young tries to return to 2007 form after an injury-riddled 2008, but CHONE is buying none of that. Cha Seung Baek, average at best, was supposed to be the #3 starter, though he is injured and may start the season on the DL.

Player	IP	W	L	FIP	WHIP	K
Jake Peavy	177	12	8	3.40	1.19	175
Chris R. Young	114	6	6	4.45	1.32	95
Cha Seung Baek	98	5	5	4.17	1.30	67
Kevin Correia	100	6	5	3.61	1.30	81
Walter Silva	No	pr	oje	ction	s avai	lable

Nothing is guaranteed past that. Kevin Correia is the favorite to be the fourth starter based on his experience, even though he's mostly been a bullpen arm in his career. The fifth starter job is absolutely wide open. Walter Silva, a 32-yo RHP San Diego purchased from the Mexican League, is the favorite currently for the #5 spot. Josh Geer, who had a five-start cameo last year, might fill that role eventually, although he was cut last Monday. Cesar Ramos might even get the nod despite posting an abysmal 1.60 WHIP and 5.29 ERA in his first year at AAA in 2008. The Padres did sign Shawn Hill, though it remains to be seen what his role will be. He might slip into the rotation while Baek is out.

Read between the lines...this is the worst rotation Petco Park has seen, and it won't get any better if/when Peavy is traded.

Bullpen:

If the rotation is a bad traffic collision, the bullpen is the Hindenburg. Now that Hell's Bells will no longer ring at Petco, the closer position will be filled by Trevor's most recent set-up man, Heath Bell, who figures to be solid in that role. Cla Meredith slides up to the set-up man, and the former Met and Dodger Duaner Sanchez is in line for late inning work. The Mets let Sanchez go; he hasn't been the same since a 2006 taxicab accident.

Role	Player	IP	W	L	FIP	WHIP	K/9
Closer	Heath Bell	75	5	3	3.21	1.21	8.76
Set-up	Cla Meredith	74	5	3	3.48	1.26	6.57
7th inn.	Duaner Sanchez	42	4	2	3.77	1.36	7.13
LH Relief	?	?	?	?	?	?	?
Relief	Mike Adams	65	4	3	3.33	1.23	9.00
Relief	Shawn Hill	76	4	5	4.13	1.41	5.53
Relief	Cesar Ramos	141	7	9	5.12	1.52	4.59

After that, your guess is as good as anyone's. Some have reported as many as four bullpen spots will be filled through waivers. Mike Adams may find himself a bullpen spot. Former Rockie Justin Hampson and Rule 5 pick from the Yankees Ivan Nova were placed on waivers last week, as was Jae Kuk Ryu, claimed by the Indians. Joe Thatcher was also cut, so two LHP from the bullpen last year won't be there to start. The Padres acquired RHP Luke Gregorson to complete Khalil Greene trade and Eulogio de la Cruz, who was bought from the Marlins last week could find a bullpen or rotation spot. UPDATE: Ivan Nova was returned to the Yankees.

Getting the picture? It's true...one week until Opening Day, and the Padres bullpen is not even half resolved. What a disaster. Keep an eye on the waiver wire - many pitchers ousted at the end of Spring Training could find a home in San Diego, including Juan Morillo or Baltimore RHP Hayden Penn, if the O's are careless.

Why the Padres will win the NL West:

via farm3.static.flickr.com

Why the Padres will NOT win the NL West:

Going into 2008, the Giants were nearly the unanimous choice to finish last in the NL West. But given their solid rotation, it was easy to imagine a scenario where they would surprise. That is NOT the case with the Padres.

They have the division's worst lineup, a suspect bench, their worst rotation this decade, and an abominable bullpen. Not only do they have no chance of winning the division, but you have to wonder if there's a chance they could avoid 100 losses.

Know Your Foe: Who is Max Scherzer?

Poseidon's Fist — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 23:15:08 -0000

As with previous installments of KYF, I have made acquaintance with the SBNation gurus of our divisional foes to profile an up-and-coming player. This week is Arizona RHP Max Scherzer. So what is the best part about Scherzer?

DBacksSkins: The most exciting thing about Scherzer is that not only does he kick [butt], but he's also heterochromic.

via i6.photobucket.com An interesting comparison with this picture here

Jim McClennan: The coolest thing about him is that he has two different colored eyes: it's quite striking.

Well....other than the fact that his creepy picture makes him perfect for pitching for the Serpents, what do we know? (Disclaimer: Jim and Phil had more enlightening things to say too...just offering a friendly jab). Certainly High Heat!!! and Ubaldo TryHairBThere will want to know what to expect from their recent fantasy draftee.

Background

Scherzer went to high school in a St. Louis suburb, where the heterochrome caught the attention of scouts with not only his success but also his very violent delivery; he once told the St. Louis Dispatch "I used to have the worst head jerk, my hat would fly off sometimes." Still, Max earned enough praise to be drafted by the St. Louis Cardinals in 2003 in the 43rd round; instead, he enrolled at the University of Missouri.

Max Scherzer

#39 / Pitcher / Arizona Diamondbacks

Height: 6-3

Weight: 215

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Jul 27, 1984

After overhauling his balance and mechanics with the help of Mizzou head coach Tim Jamieson, Scherzer blossomed in his sophomore year, earning honors as Big 12 Pitcher of the Year, second-team All-American, Team USA starter, and the second lowest opponent batting average in the country. Arizona made him their first overall pick in the 2006 draft, nine spots below Rockie Greg Reynolds.

Scherzer raced through the minor leagues. After starting in Single A to start 2007 in Visalia, he found himself in AAA Tucson to start 2008 and was pitching with the big club before April was out. His debut on April 27 of last year actually broke a major league record: he retired 13 batters in a row in relief (the only 13 he faced), breaking a 46-year old record, on his way to seven strikeouts.

Complete Minor League Stats

Complete Major League Stats

Scouting Report

Scherzer was able to amp up his fastball to 99 in college, but his average fastball falls around 94mph now. He also boasts a change-up and slider, to which Bryan Smith at Baseball Prospectus spoke to a couple weeks ago:

He's really improved his secondary stuff over the years -- remember, he was mostly a fastball guy at Missouri. I think he probably throws 140 innings or so, and I think they'll be pretty good. A good sleeper for you fantasy players.

Baseball America listed Scherzer as the 66th top prospect in going into 2008, which seems quite low now. Will Lingo listed "Mr. Electric" as the #4 Arizona prospect going into 2008 - Rockies fans should note Arizona's number one prospect and top power prospect on the list. Armed with the best organizational fastball, Lingo has Scherzer projected as the 2011 closer.

Scherzer is aiming to be in the D-Backs rotation to start 2009, but as Jim McClennan at AZSnakepit notes:

Opinion's somewhat split on whether he'll be a starter or a reliever. His stamina is somewhat suspect.... The Diamondbacks are treating him with kid gloves right now...had some arm issues over the winter that caused him to be shut down. Nothing major, but they are being very cautious...If he *has* to go to the pen, it will be a disappointment.

As of this writing , Scherzer has yet to appear in a Spring Training game, but the shoulder soreness has apparently subsided and he should be ready for Opening Day.

Projections

What does DBacksSkins think? How about "~150 innings, 130 ERA+, up to 10 wins, and 2000 strikeouts. (That might be a little high, though)"

Yeah...the strikeouts might be a bit optimistic, but the rest is certainly attainable.

2009	IP	K	FIP	WHIP
CHONE	83	94	3.60	1.33
Marcel	68	65	3.84	1.29
ZiPS	112	106	3.62	1.35

Pecota: 155 IP, 10-8, 3.93 ERA, 1.30 WHIP

AZ SnakePit: 151 IP, 12-9, 3.80 ERA, 1.29 WHIP

Verdict: It can certainly be disappointing when a live arm gets relegated to the bullpen when he could have contributed over 200 innings as a starter. For that reason, Arizona fans hope Scherzer's arm can carry a starter's load, but I would suspect (as Lingo did) that he will eventually find his home in the bullpen. The probability of injury due to his still atypical motion and injury history is one part of it, but his repertoire as a flamethrower with increasingly developing secondary pitches and good control profiles very well for a closer.

Arizona (6-9, 2-4 last week)

OF Luis Gonzalez is open to returning to the desert. However, the most celebrated player in franchise history would likely need more complications in Eric Byrnes' recovery from a left hamstring injury. Byrnes figures to make his Spring debut tomorrow Tuesday.

Luis Gonzalez

#26 / Left Field / Florida Marlins

Height: 6-2

Weight: 210

Bats: L

Throws: R

Born: Sep 03, 1967

MLB.com's Steve Gilbert evaluates the competitions for Arizona's final roster spot on the bench. Ryan Roberts seems to be the favorite even though the club took James Skelton in the Rule 5 draft from the Tigers. Alex Romero is out of options but reported to camp with a broken hand. Other competitors are Josh Whitesell and Josh Wilson, a former infielder of the 2006 Sky Sox.

Los Angeles (9-7, 4-1 last week)

Manny Ramirez made his LF debut Sunday against the Rockies, but an injury cut it short in four innings. Ramirez was lifted after feeling tightness in his left hamstring, the same injury that scratched him from Thursday's lineup. He will re-evaluate today.

-PF

After the game: "Age is catching up to me. Maybe [the contract] is a bad investment"

GM Ned Colletti admits to being "interested" in Pedro Martinez, who is fresh off of a strong showing in the World Baseball Classic against The Netherlands. Tony Jackson of the L.A. Daily News reports that is there is nothing more than interest to report.

San Diego (4-9-3, 1-3-1 last week)

Signed former Dodger and Met RHP Duaner Sanchez to a minor league contract. Sanchez was a strong part of the LA bullpen in 2005 and Met pen in 2006, but a taxi accident before the 2007 season necessitated two shoulder surgeries. His return to MLB in 2008 just wasn't the same, as his velocity dropped. This is a great pickup for the Padres, as it involves no risk but rests on the hope that the extra year since the surgeries will help bring the Sanchez of old back.

Duaner Sanchez

#50 / Pitcher / New York Mets

Height: 6-2

Weight: 210

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Oct 14, 1979

Brian Giles' personal problems off the field continue. jbox at GasLampBall wonders why he is different than Matt Bush, who was traded after off the field problems.

The Padres are no longer interested in LHP Joe Beimel, likely for the same reason the Rockies have reportedly moved on: his financial demands. Ed Eagle at MLB.com maintains the Rockies are still in the running.

San Francisco (8-11, 3-3 last week)

The Giants are reportedly interested in C Ivan Rodriguez. Interestingly, he would be used as a backup to Pablo Sandoval and Travis Ishikawa in the infield as well as the backup backstop behind Bengie Molina. McCovey Chronicles discusses.

Ivan Rodriguez

#12 / New York Yankees

Height: 5-9

Weight: 190

Born: Nov 30, 1971

Michael Schwartz of MLB.com features former Rockie Jeremy Affeldt in a recent column.

Giants scout John Cox said that Frisco would be interested in signing Japanese pitcher Yu Darvish if Darvish were interested. The 22-year old has impressed in the WBC and can throw in the upper 90's. Don't be worried though....he won't be a free agent for five years....

Wednesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 14:26:28 -0000

Some things to read while putting your mustache on for the day.

On the field, Tuesday was an off day for most Brewers. Seth McClung threw three innings in a minor league game to stay on schedule, with R.J. Swindle and Mat Gamel joining him in minor league camp for the day. McClung is, at least for the moment, part of the starting rotation that USA Today says will be the key to the Brewers' season.

Whether you like or dislike Rickie Weeks, it's encouraging to see stories like this one, where the coaching staff is working with him to correct his flaws. Sounds like Dale Sveum is working on several aspects of his related to his batting stance and swing, and Willie Randolph has taken on the task of improving his defense.

While Weeks learns to play one position, Adam McCalvy takes a look at some of the Brewers in camp who can play more than one, and how their versatility helps and hinders their careers. View From Bernie's Chalet thinks Chris Duffy, Brad Nelson and Casey McGehee will take the last bench spots, with Jorge Julio, Todd Coffey and Mark DiFelice picking up the final bullpen spots. That would leave Mike Lamb, Trot Nixon, Tim Dillard, R.J. Swindle and Eduardo Morlan, among others, off the roster.

Speaking of DiFelice, both he and Vinny Rottino should be back in camp soon as Team Italy was eliminated from the WBC yesterday. Rottino picked up a double in the ninth in his only at bat. The big news of the day, however, was The Netherlands' 2-1, 11 inning win over the Dominican Republic, singlehandedly eliminating the DR from contention. Babes Love Baseball thinks Bert Blyleven's performance as pitching coach for the Netherlands should be added to his Hall of Fame resume.

Meanwhile, Curt Schilling has written about the impact of pitching in the WBC, comparing it to baseball's All-Star series in Japan, which Schilling pitched in following the 1998 season.

Some days the Mug feels a little empty without a mention of Eric Gagne. Miller Park Drunk has a photo essay covering his Brewer career.

Some aging veterans, however, can still play: The Seattle Post-Intelligencer has a profile of Mike Cameron. The story is a great, well rounded view of Cameron as a person, including his locker room antics, his battle with post-concussion syndrome (which I haven't seen anywhere else), and his family.

On rankings, projections, etc:

The Ghost of Moonlight Graham lists Ryan Braun #3 on his list of five players to build a franchise around.
Both Braun and Prince Fielder made Sportscrack's All Under 25 Team.
Do Gummi Bears Dream of Rubber Passion Fruit? (probably the strangest blog name I've ever linked) predicts the Brewers will finish third in the NL Central, behind the Reds and Cubs, in that order.
Batter's Box Interactive has Sportsinteraction.com's 2009 over/unders, which have the Brewers at 80.5 wins.
Rowland's Office has the Brewers tied for fourth in the NL Central with the Astros. That's about as exciting as one of Erik Bedard's greeting cards.

I'm pretty surprised by this number, which I would have expected to be lower: Over 50% of fans at Miller Park last season came from outside of the five-county area that's helping pay for the ballpark. That number is probably a little inflated, as it includes visiting fans of opposing teams, but it's still impressive. Don Walker uses it to make a case for the retractable roof.

Stories from other camps:

Mariners: Brandon Morrow suffered a setback in a bullpen session and will not be ready for Opening Day.
Mets: Angel Pagan has elected to have surgery on his right elbow and will miss 6-8 weeks. The team also released Duaner Sanchez.
Padres: GM Kevin Towers said in a radio interview yesterday that several spots are still open in his bullpen, and some could be filled as players come available at the end of camp.
Rangers: Ben Sheets is in Texas rehabbing with the Rangers' team doctor, but team officials say there's no connection to the team.
Rockies: Jorge de la Rosa may not make the Rockies' rotation after all. He was pulled from a start yesterday after just one third of an inning, and has a spring ERA over 20.

It has not been a good spring for the Astros. On the field, they lost their tenth straight game yesterday. Off the field, FanGraphs ranked them 28th in their organizational rankings, ahead of only the Nationals and Marlins.

Andruw Jones had also been having a rough spring, until he met up with Claudio Vargas. Vargas gave up a home run to Jones yesterday. At one point this spring, Jones had struck out 10 times in 14 at bats.

On the economic front, things don't look so good for the Arizona Diamondbacks. Hearst-Argyle, a minority partner in the team, is selling their 1.7% share of the team for an estimated $2.25 million. That price would suggest the value of the franchise has fallen $247 million in the past year.

The news isn't quite as bad for the Mariners, but still ugly: not only did the team narrowly avoid losing 100 games last season, they also lost $4.5 million. Hopefully new management can generate some enthusiasm among the fan base, even if they don't win in 2009 either.

Are the Cubs already learning the dangers of relying on Milton Bradley? Bleed Cubbie Blue has quotes from the Fort Worth Star-Telegram where Bradley admits to taking some days off in 2008 to protect his stat line. Eric Seidman of FanGraphs calls Bradley the "most talented player of the last ten years who truly deserves to sign one-year deals each season."

Baseball Musings' Team Offense Projections has projected the Cardinals to score 4.97 runs per game in 2009. They scored 4.81 in 2008.

Oh, and I forgot to mention it on Monday, but there are new pictures on Gorman's Flickr page.

Drink up.

Mets Release Duaner Sanchez

Eric Simon — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 13:55:13 -0000

Though the writing may have been on the wall for a while, the Mets release Duaner Sanchez this morning.

"We looked at it, really, his over all performance based upon last year to what we see now and we didn’t see the improvement," Minaya said.

By cutting Sanchez before mid-march they will save more than $1 million of his $1.6 million salary for 2009.

Thursday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Thu, 26 Feb 2009 14:49:14 -0000

Things to read while waiting in line for "Straps."

So, if you listened to yesterday's Cactus League opener, you might have heard "Hell's Bells" play as Trevor Hoffman entered to pitch the seventh inning. If you did I hope you enjoyed it, because you won't hear it again until the regular season.

And if you're heading to Arizona this spring and hoping to see Hoffman, pick a home game. The Brewers are allowing Hoffman to set his own routine and schedule this spring, and said schedule doesn't include many trips out of Maryvale. A quote from that story is a little troubling:

The Brewers allowed similar leeway to Eric Gagne last season after he signed for $10 million.

This spring, if the Brewers tell Gagne he's pitching in the dumpster behind the minor league fields, my guess is he'll be ok with it.

Gagne, however, still isn't pitching much at all as he battles a strained calf. He'll throw BP on Friday before deciding if he's ready for game action. He's in a tough spot, though: By tomorrow he'll only have about four weeks to prove he deserves a spot in the bullpen before his March 25 deadline, so my guess is he'll go even if he's not 100%.

As noted in this FanShot, Tony Gwynn's shoulder is still not healed and could take as much as a month to fully heal.

I have a theory. It's not based on anything I know for sure, and it's somewhat conspiratorial, but here it is: I think the Brewers are going to take things very slowly with Gwynn, to the point where he opens the season on the DL and stays in extended spring training. Then, they'll have a few weeks where they can activate him if an injury or need pops up. If one doesn't, they'll send him to AAA on a rehab assignment, and if need be, they'll DFA him on May 1 instead of in April and hope no one wants to burn a waiver claim and a roster spot on a guy who's hardly played a game all season.

Also noted in the link above: Mat Gamel and Todd Coffey are both leaving the team to attend the births of their children. Coffey is expected to leave later today, and Gamel early tomorrow, meaning he could still be available to pinch hit in a game today.

Here are a few pictures from yesterday's tie:

Diving catches rarely look as impressive in photo form. Consider, for example, Chris Duffy catching a ball on his knees.
The All Time Saves Leader's snarl is in mid-season form.
The blimp cam caught a picture of Prince Fielder signing autographs.

Once Bill Hall is healthy, it sounds like he'll be given every opportunity to prove himself. Yesterday Ken Macha said he wants to give Hall a shot to prove he can play everyday and live up to the promise he showed in his 35 HR season in 2006. He needs to get healthy first, though.

On the other hand, Tyler Maas of Right Field Bleachers wants Casey McGehee to hurry up and not make the team. McGehee went 0-for-2 yesterday, but on the list of players I irrationally want off the roster based on yesterday's performance he's significantly behind Jorge Julio.

Brewer fans came out in droves last season to watch winning baseball, but are they loyal? Jim Lane has a new study, published at River Ave. Blues, ranking the Brewers 20th in fan loyalty, but ahead of both Cincinnati and Pittsburgh in the Central.

If it can't be Yovani Gallardo, Dave Bush seems to be the fan favorite to start on Opening Day, but The Junkball Blues cautions Brewer fans against getting too excited, as Bush's BABIP suggests he got some lucky breaks in 2008. He was incredibly unlucky in 2007, so it evens out.

In news from other camps:

Astros: Were forced to delay their spring training opener for 15 minutes because Florida Governor Charlie Crist, scheduled to throw out the first pitch, was late.
Dodgers: Have reportedly offered a one year deal with a player option for a second to Manny Ramirez.
Giants: Noah Lowry still has tightness in his elbow and may not be ready by Opening Day.
Indians: Andy Marte cleared waivers and was sent to AAA.
Mets: May consider releasing reliever Duaner Sanchez before Opening Day.
Twins: Exploratory surgery on Boof Bonser revealed a torn rotator cuff. He'll miss the entire 2009 season.

Another day, another update on the Washington Nationals saga: While the Nationals have reportedly targeted Blue Jays assistant GM Tony LaCava as their GM in waiting if Jim Bowden is fired, their hiring process would not be that simple as MLB rules would still require them to interview a minority candidate. Meanwhile the team has pulled out of the Dominican Republic.

Oh, and since I found this recipe for homemade gummies I've been looking for new and creative molds, but I'm not sure I'm nerdy enough for gummy Pis.

Drink up.