SB Nation - Rick Ankiel

Wednesday Rockpile: Off season progress report, Rockies 2010 playoff chances improve as the team does nothing

Rox Girl — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 17:10:17 -0000

So let's take a look back at how the NL ended the 2009 season:

NL West Standings

	W	L	PCT	GB	STRK
Los Angeles	95	67	.586	0	Lost 3
Colorado	92	70	.567	3	Lost 2
San Francisco	88	74	.543	7	Won 1
San Diego	75	87	.462	20	Lost 1
Arizona	70	92	.432	25	Won 1

(updated 12.23.2009 at 10:02 AM EST)

NL Central Standings

	W	L	PCT	GB	STRK
St. Louis	91	71	.561	0	Lost 6
Chicago	83	78	.515	7.5	Lost 1
Milwaukee	80	82	.493	11	Won 3
Cincinnati	78	84	.481	13	Won 2
Houston	74	88	.456	17	Lost 3
Pittsburgh	62	99	.385	28.5	Lost 2

(updated 12.23.2009 at 10:03 AM EST)

NL East Standings

	W	L	PCT	GB	STRK
Philadelphia	93	69	.574	0	Lost 1
Florida	87	75	.537	6	Lost 1
Atlanta	86	76	.530	7	Lost 6
New York	70	92	.432	23	Won 3
Washington	59	103	.364	34	Won 7

(updated 12.23.2009 at 10:03 AM EST)

So that's your basic straight up standings, if you want to go into more advanced detail (and you probably should) about how these teams stacked up on talent and skill without the luck you can look at Beyond the Boxscore or Baseball Prospectus or something, but straight W's and L's will serve as a solid start for where I'm going with this today.

So let's separate the teams into some talent groups, this time going by what we know of the teams' personnel at the end of last season rather than the standings:

Contender A Class (90+ wins)

Philadelphia
Los Angeles

Contender B Class (86-90 wins)

St. Louis
Colorado
Atlanta
Chicago

.500-ish teams (81-85 wins)

Arizona
San Francisco
Florida
Milwaukee
New York

I realize that the D-backs and Mets didn't finish anywhere close to .500 in 2009 and that the Giants and Marlins finished ahead of a couple of the teams in the group I have above them, but this is where taking out the luck, good or bad, comes in. In the cases of Florida and San Fran, they seemed to benefit from a large positive dose of divine favor in 2009 even as Arizona and New York were seemingly cursed from the get-go. Feel free to quibble with this placement in the comments, but the main point is that these are the 11 teams that appear to have a legitimate shot at making a playoff run in 2010.

So far in the off season, we've seen Los Angeles give up Randy Wolf, Orlando Hudson and Juan Pierre and drop into that second group with the Rockies and Cardinals, while the Phillies have grabbed a couple of minor upgrades with Roy Halladay over Cliff Lee and Placido Polanco over Pedro Feliz and given themselves a little separation from the rest of the league. Right now, it does not appear as if the Dodgers will be able to gain nearly enough of those cast-off wins back to get back to the Phillies level.

In the second group, the Cardinals and Rockies are both taking risks in replacing free agent starters leaving after career seasons, the Cards with Brad Penny in place of Joel Pineiro, the Rockies with the return of Jeff Francis in place of Jason Marquis. Insurance policies for both teams seem to be primarily a cache of young near-ready pitching talent. Both teams have similar bench depth issues to work out as well, the Cardinals need to replace Mark DeRosa and Rick Ankiel, the Rockies, Yorvit Torrealba and Garrett Atkins.

The good news for the Rockies in relation to the Cardinals (should they have to compete with each other for the wild card next season) is that 1) Dan O'Dowd got rid of this "Holliday distraction" the Cardinals are going through which is keeping them from making other moves a couple of years ago, and 2) while both teams can probably expect some regression in their starting rotation performance in 2010, it's usually a safe bet to expect a smaller step back from the team with the younger players, in this case, Colorado.

The Cubs are hoping that losing Milton Bradley is addition by subtraction, but the team's core seems to be declining as a group fairly rapidly, and actually looking at their ages, with their best hitting talent between the ages of 32-34 next season, I really suspect that they might be dropping into that .500 group without a major rebuild that doesn't involve Carlos Silva. The Braves, meanwhile, looked like they might have a decent team heading into 2010, but their replacement of Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez with Takashi Saito and Billy Wagner is a downgrade for next year, as is yesterday's deal of Javier Vazquez to the Yankees. Signing Troy Glaus would be useful, but I still think the overall impact of Atlanta's moves is to add a lot more downside risk to the team in 2010 without a substantial upside improvement.

Of the .500-ish teams, so far, most haven't made any moves that really put them into the next category. The Mets appear to be likely adding Jason Bay, which would be a decent start at that. Arizona got a little better for next year or two in acquiring Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy for Max Scherzer and Daniel Schlereth, but they still seem to be in a 82-85 win range which I think basically just catches them up to the Giants, who have as of yet done nothing. Florida gets a little better by aging a year, but not good enough, and their bullpen has been weakened. San Francisco is putting a lot of eggs into the Madison Bumgarner basket, either he or a second tier free agent like Jon Garland will have to replace the production that Randy Johnson and Brad Penny provided last season. That's a lot to ask given that the rest of their rotation, much like the Rockies, probably isn't going to be quite as good as it was in 2009.

Milwaukee's moves, such trading for Carlos Gomez and signing Wolf and LaTroy Hawkins have been mostly beneath the radar, but I really like what they've done so far. I still think they need more, but at least they're systematically going after the team's weaknesses on a budget without taking the kind of gambles that Atlanta is, or St. Louis did with the Penny acquisition.

So summarizing, the Rockies, who are gaining ground just by maturing into a peak phase, thus far have caught up with the Dodgers, and probably passed them talent-wise, just by sitting on their hands. Arizona's moved up a little and are within range of passing us if things fall their way in 2010, as are the Giants, but to put it in perspective, the gap between the Rockies and both those teams talent wise is probably still larger than it is between the Rockies and the Phillies the other direction.

As for the second playoff option, so far the news has been mostly positive as well, as none of the primary competitors outside the NL West with the possible exception of the Brewers have added enough talent to either make up for the players they've lost, or to otherwise catch up with Colorado. The last couple of seasons the Rockies have had similarly quiet winters, as Dan O'Dowd seems to prefer to wait until mid-season to add salary via trade if the team's in contention rather than going all in for the top free agents. Thus far this off season, I haven't seen any NL team besides the Phillies make moves that should push the Rockies to pursue a less budget conscious course.

Rick Ankiel: Cheap power for a weird organization?

Grant — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 00:23:39 -0000

I swore I wasn't going to do another "What about this free agent?" post, but they're like crack. I'll get this over with, n00b-FanPost-style:

What about Rick Ankiel? He's a low-OBP, low-BA hacker with serious power who was busted for HGH, but didn't fall off a cliff until the season after, so maybe the decline is unrelated, but he'd be cheap on a one-year deal, and his wOBA was just above .360 the previous two years, yet his defense isn't great shakes, though his arm is tops, and left-handed hitters usually don't hit for power in San Francisco, but maybe Ankiel is an exception. Thoughts????

Ugh. I hate the offseason. What's even worse is that when rosterbating, you have to look at things from the Giants' warped perspective. "So, assuming that Eugenio Velez is a leadoff hitter and corner outfielder worth starting, and assuming that John Bowker is not a good soldier who can help a baseball team by soldiering, what free agents should we look at?"

Rick Ankiel doesn't make sense on a team that should give Bowker a chance to be a cheap, OBP-friendly Ankiel. But you know what they say about hitters who don't like Venezuela: they will consume your team from the inside out like little nanobots shaped like piranha-dogs. I think Earl Weaver used to say that. Makes sense. Why judge a player on a full AAA season when you can judge the player on their willingness to spend their winter in a country with one of the worst murder rates in the world? Man up, and don't get murdered, Nancy.

But if the Giants are going to ignore the existence of Fred Lewis, if Bowker doesn't have a chance to get 400 at-bats with the Giants, and if Nate Schierholtz just swung at a slider that hit his back leg, the Giants will need an outfielder or two. Eugenio Velez is currently penciled in as a starter, despite not having a baseball-related skill (other than raw speed) that's even average.

Eugenio Velez is currently penciled in as a starter, despite not having a baseball-related skill (other than raw speed) that's even average.

When you put it that way, sure, you'll start thinking about players like Ankiel, Xavier Nady, and Ryan Church. What's even more frightening is that Eugenio Velez is currently penciled in as a starter, despite not having a baseball-related skill (other than raw speed) that's even average. So I wouldn't be devastated by a one-year, show-me deal to a guy like Ankiel, who's one of the few players on the market capable of hitting 30 homers for less than $5M. It doesn't make sense until you fall down the rabbit hole in front of the Giants' executive offices, but once you're down, you start hoping for things like this.

What would make the decision easier, though, is if I knew what Ankiel would hit over a stretch of random at-bats in July. And would Ankiel happily go to Venezuela? I have no idea. This player evaluation stuff is hard!

Jeff Clement Penciled in at First

Charlie — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 10:03:59 -0000

by Kathy Willens - AP

The Bucs are comfortable waiting until late in the offseason to target free agent corner players like Xavier Nady.

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The Post-Gazette has an interesting item about Jeff Clement and the first base job. The Pirates seem not to mind that some of their top targets for extra corner players (Xavier Nady and Rick Ankiel in particular) are unlikely to sign until late in the offseason. This means they're probably relatively happy with the players currently at the top of their depth chart (Clement at first, and Garrett Jones in right) and want an extra guy mainly to provide competition and to guard against a flameout by Clement or someone else.

This seems sensible. As a fourth-outfielder / insurance policy, Nady is actually fairly interesting to me, since he's right-handed. But Ankiel is a lefty like Clement. And it's not really clear that Nady or Ankiel are better than Clement right now anyway. ZiPS, for example, predicts Clement will have an .801 OPS next year. (Incidentally, it also predicts Matt Capps will have the lowest ERA on the staff. Oops.) Nady is at .780. I don't think a ZiPS projection for Ankiel has been published yet, but Bill James has him at .763.

Now, both Nady and Ankiel would be doing the Pirates a service by keeping Jones out of the outfield, so they provide more defensive value than Clement probably would. And certainly projections can turn out to be wrong, particularly with injury magnets like these three guys, etc. etc. etc. (Don't think you're being original by pointing that out, either.) The point, though, is that if the Bucs have resigned themselves to second- or third-tier free agents like Nady and Ankiel (as is probably appropriate at this point), they're right to not feel much urgency about this. Clement might well end up being better than the available options anyway, and if things get bad, there's also Steve Pearce, Delwyn Young and Brandon Moss--and possibly Jose Tabata and Pedro Alvarez--to fall back on. An additional benefit of starting Clement is that the Pirates can control his rights for several years if he succeeds, and since Tabata and Alvarez could begin to complicate things staring in about July, it behooves the Bucs to see what they have in Clement.

The best reason for the Pirates to sign a free agent outfielder or first baseman is not to replace someone currently penciled into the starting lineup, but to guard against a complete failure, and I don't just mean by Clement. Not to take a shot at someone who thoroughly proved me wrong throughout 2009, but last season Jones played like he knew how to fly. Maybe he really can fly, but given his lengthy and undistinguished history, the Pirates also have to consider the possibility that instead of flying his legs were just moving really fast for a few seconds, like Wile E. Coyote running off a cliff. Clement, Jones and Lastings Milledge should all be in the starting lineup, but if possible there should be legitimate fallback options too.

The NL Central Offseason Revue: Ursine Children

the red baron — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 19:43:23 -0000

Sure, I've used it before. It's a good picture, damn it.

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But first, a story. (Just so you know it's a Baron post.)

Last weekend, my mother and I went shopping. The Cherokee Street Antique Row Association was holding their annual Cookie Spree, and we go every year. There's always people milling around, free hot apple cider, and most of the shops are decorated.

We met up in South County, deciding it was a better idea to take one car. Mom tends to get motion sickness when not driving, so I generally just ride with her. We headed up 55 toward the city, then exited at the 4500 block of Broadway.

At the bottom of the ramp was an old woman holding a sign. A square of cardboard scrawled all over in black marker, I couldn't read exactly what was written but the message was clear nonetheless. It was cold out, and the ragged old overcoat she was clutching around her looked woefully inadequate. I've been conned before, I'm sure, but this was no panhandler. This was an old woman with no place to go who badly needed help.

We came to a stop at the bottom of the ramp, and I dug out my wallet. Mom reached for her purse, and I told her I would get it. I opened my wallet and grabbed the first two bills in it, a ten and a twenty. Then, guided by some internal calculus I don't at all understand, I put the ten back. I handed my mother the twenty, she motioned the old woman over, and gave it to her. The old woman said something, toothless mouth moving quickly, blessing us and wishing us well, but by then the car was moving and I couldn't entirely tell what it was. We continued on our way, had hot chocolate and apple cider and cookies. I bought an antique light fixture; it seemed like a fine day.

I tell you all this not to make you think I'm some sort of saint for giving this old woman twenty dollars, but because ever since then I haven't been able to stop thinking about the ten dollars I didn't give her. I had almost $300 in my wallet that day, and a credit card nowhere near the limit to boot. In no way, shape, or form would that extra ten dollars have hurt me, yet I put it back. And worst of all, I don't understand why. I like to think I would do whatever it takes to help someone in need, but apparently that only goes so far. Apparently there's a price on my generosity, and it's painfully low. A truly good person would have been willing to hand over everything they had in hand and never thought twice about it; I certainly didn't need another antique to litter my already cluttered house.

We went back the same way later, on the way back to my car, but the old woman was gone. I hope what I gave her was enough to help, but I can't stop thinking about that moment, when I arbitrarily decided the limits of how much I was willing to help another human being.

I've had these posts in mind for a while now, trying to take a look around the division at our rivals and what their offseasons might look like, but simply hadn't had the chance to do so yet. With my inability to post a full post on Wednesday, I thought I might ask Dan if he minded me taking today. He seemed amenable to the idea, unsurprising given the dearth of real meat to work with this time of year and what is undoubtedly a crowded schedule for everyone. So here I am, telling you what the Cubs need to do this winter.

I begin with the Cubs because they are our chief rivals and also because it simply fits. We care more about the Cubs. So here we are.

As the Cubbies head into their first offseason with new ownership, the question of payroll undoubtedly must be raised. Their new owner, Tom Ricketts, has pledged to update the stadium and build a winner, but just how much one will impact the other remains to be seen. For now, it looks as if Ricketts is willing to pour money into the franchise in order to win, and we'll have to operate under that assumption.

Offense

The Cubs' offense took a huge hit last season from the high times of 2008, due to several players underperforming. Alfonso Soriano was the biggest culprit, stumbling to an OPS+ of 84 after three seasons over 115. Geovany Soto went through an awful sophomore slump, falling from a 118 OPS+ to 79. Aramis Ramirez missed significant time with a shoulder injury, and Derrek Lee struggled mightily early in the season before turning it around.

There were bright spots, such as the improvement Kosuke Fukudome made from his first season in the majors or the continued non-suckitude of Ryan Theriot, but overall it was an intensely disappointing season for Chicago at the plate. In 2008 the Cubs scored 855 runs; in 2009 they plated only 707. Enough said.

Starting Pitching

If the Cubs' offense was decidedly disappointing, the pitching was underwhelmingly good. Carlos Zambrano continued his human roller coaster act, yet still managed to post an ERA under 4.00 for the eighth straight year. Nonetheless, the Big Z is no longer quite the intimidating force at the front of a rotation he once was. He's still solid, but he doesn't really scare you anymore. (Well, unless you happen to be something edible or punchable in the dugout, that is.)

Ryan Dempster fell off from his 2008 performance, but was still a plus pitcher for Chicago. He was awful much of the early portion of the year, but came on strong late to lower his ERA to 3.65. Dempster provides much-needed innings, and at a reasonably high level. After Z and Dumpster, though, things get a bit murkier.

Ted Lilly, a relatively unsung contributor to the Cubs' back-to-back division titles, has had shoulder surgery already this offseason. It was minor shoulder surgery, yes, but then again, I'm not entirely sure there is such a thing. Lilly was absolutely brilliant in 2009, posting a 3.61 FIP, but until he can prove his shoulder is unequivocally sound, he has to be a concern.

Perhaps the brightest spot of all for the Cubs in '09 was the performance of their rookie hurler, Randy Wells. He went 12-10, 3.05 in his first extended taste of the majors at 27. His peripherals were mostly in line as well, so it doesn't appear he did it all with smoke and mirrors. Still, Wells is a relatively unknown commodity, and may simply be waiting until the time is right to give up a crippling home run, then rip open his jersey, revealing the Cardinal jersey underneath. So there's that.

The Cubs' fifth starter spot was, for the most part, a disaster. Sean Marshall continued to impersonate Sean Marshall. The Cubs acquired Tom Gorzelanny from the Pirates, and he picked up basically where he left off in Pittsburgh. There were positives in his performance, but for the most part it was another disappointing season for the man once voted Most Likely to Actually Live Up to His Billing among all Pittsburgh left-handed starting prospects.

Relief

Carlos Marmol is sort of the pitching equivalent of a British motorcycle. Yeah, it's a whole lot of fun when it's working, and it certainly looks impressive, but damned if the thing isn't broken down and spilling oil all over your driveway more often than not. Marmol has some of the nastiest stuff in the game, but not much idea where it's going a fair amount of the time. Hitters did a much better job of laying off his slider in 2009, and he had a tough time throwing it for strikes. He still struck out a bunch of hitters (93 in 74 innings), and didn't give up many hits (43), but he also walked 65 hitters, leading to a 1.46 WHIP fueled almost entirely by batters simply standing there and doing nothing.

Kevin Gregg was solid, though not the force the Cubs were undoubtedly hoping for, and he has now departed via free agency. Angel Guzman was impressive, combining a repertoire just a step down from Marmol's with actual control, but he remains very young and was shut down late in the season with an injury. Neal Cotts was, um, how do I put this?- shitty, only to be replaced as the primary lefty by John Grabow. Grabow did what he always does, and should be a definite plus in the 'pen for 2010.

Jeff Samardzija continued his enigmatic career arc, following up his 2.28 ERA in 2008 with a 7.53 in 2009. Sure, he's talented, but at some point Samardzija is going to have to come up with something more than a big fastball and a passing resemblance to Andy Samberg if he wants to succeed at the major league level.

Needs

Any discussion of the Chicago Cubs' offseason has to begin with the outfield, where they badly need to figure things out. Milton Bradley wasn't a bad player for them in 2009; on the contrary, he was probably still their best outfielder, but all signs point to him being dealt this offseason, and I'm not sure I can blame the Cubs. As much as Bradley wasn't the problem with the team this year, I just don't know if his relationship with the fans, not to mention his teammates, is a tenable one.

If Bradley is dealt, the Cubs will have to come up with someone to try and replicate his offensive contributions, and several names have been floated. Rick Ankiel was thought to be their first choice until fairly recently, but things seem to have cooled slightly on that front since Scott Boras made his comments about multiple years and big dollars for Swingin' Dick's services. The Cubs don't seem to have much interest in Matt Holliday, perhaps being a bit gun shy after witnessing how horribly wrong a seven-year deal for an outfielder can go. They also haven't been mentioned all that much in the Jason Bay sweepstakes, so I have to assume they're looking at lower-hanging fruit.

Beyond the outfield, it's somewhat doubtful the Cubs will be able to make any substantial upgrades to their offense. Both corner infield positions are set, and rightfully so. Soto will be looking for a bounceback season; it's far too early to write him off as a one-year wonder. The only spots the Cubs could look to upgrade are the middle infield positions, but I'm not sure how much help is really available at those spots this offseason. Perhaps the Cubbies get involved in trying to trade for Dan Uggla? They do have an exciting young middle infield prospect in the pipeline named Starlin Castro, who has garnered plenty of comparisons to Edgar Renteria, and could draw interest from Florida, but little beyond that.

The bullpen has to be an area of concern, and priority one has to be sorting out who will at least begin the season as the Chicago closer. Marmol, I'm sure, will have the inside track on the job, but after his 2009 performance it shouldn't be a foregone conclusion. I doubt the Cubs will go outside the organisation to find a stopper, but it's likely they'll try to acquire at least an arm or two to bolster the overall depth of the 'pen.

Priorities

Deal with Milton Bradley situation. Trade is most likely outcome.
Acquire offensive upgrade to replace Bradley's production. Left-handed hitter would be desirable.
Shore up bullpen, likely through trades. (Bradley?)
Look at other possible offensive upgrades, i.e. Uggla or Mark DeRosa as utility player.
Acquire 5th starter/ insurance arm for Ted Lilly.
???
World Series title.

The Bottom Line

The Cubs are by no means in dire straights. They underachieved badly last season, but the offense should receive a boost from a full season from Ramirez and, hopefully, better years from Soriano, Soto, and Lee. The same can't really be said for the pitching, which performed right about where one would expect, given the talent level. The starting rotation will remain their biggest strength, while the bullpen remains somewhat suspect.

At this point, the Cubs have to be considered the Cards' main competition for the division again in 2009. Both teams are clearly a step or two ahead of the pack.

There you go, folks. One in the can, four to go.

The Baron's Playlist for the 11th of December, 2009

"The Blizzard" - Camera Obscura A cover of the Jim Reeves/ Johnny Cash classic. Any CO fans out there (and I know there are some), you might want to check out their holiday 7" release, with the Blizzard backed by Swans.

"My Wife and My Dead Wife" - Robyn Hitchcock and the Egyptians

"Oh You Pretty Things" - Peter Noone I just heard this on Pop! The Beat Bubble Bursts yesterday morning, and I can't stop listening to it. It's a Bowie cover by the former Herman's Hermits frontman, and it has a bit of an early Harry Nilsson vibe to it. Really great.

"Intermezzo Sinfonico" from Mascagni's Cavalleria Rusticana - James Levine

"Take On Me" - A.C. Newman Another tip of the hat to KDHX, this time to Nick Acquisto and the Space Parlour. Outstanding cover of the A-Ha classic.

Edit: And, of course, on the day I write this, some actual news comes down the pipeline, as the Cardinals have now apparently made an official offer to Scott Boras and Matt Holliday. Sigh. They couldn't have waited just one more day? Really?

Pull Yourself Together in Pittsburgh

Charlie — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 08:07:25 -0000

More photos » by Eric Risberg - AP

The Pirates are interested in injured pitcher Justin Duchscherer this offseason.

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Is it just me, or do the numerous reports of the Pirates pursuing injured or damaged-goods players remind anyone of the 2002-2003 offseason, when Dave Littlefield grabbed Reggie Sanders, Matt Stairs, Kenny Lofton and Jeff Suppan on the cheap? Frank Coonelly is explicitly making the argument that Rick Ankiel should sign with the Bucs as a way to get some playing time to get his career back on track. Littlefield did about the same thing prior to 2003, when the market was incredibly unfavorable to players and, as I recall, several of the guys Littlefield acquired couldn't find anyone to give them a big-league contract even though they weren't that bad the previous year. Sanders, for example, played decently for the Giants in 2002, but he couldn't get more than a million bucks elsewhere, so he signed with the Pirates and used a great 2003 performance as a springboard for a $6 million contract with the Cardinals.

Of course, Littlefield tried to do about the same thing in 2003-2004, but it didn't work because the market had normalized. That's how the Bucs got stuck with Raul Mondesi. But what he did prior to 2003 was one of the few smart things he ever did. It seems like Coonelly is trying to do the same thing, albeit with risky players rather than with a depressed market. Play here, he seems to be saying, and you can create a path to a bigger paycheck somewhere else.

The Mets' Advantage

Sam Page — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 11:00:15 -0000

More photos » by Tom Gannam - AP

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The local papers have come to their yearly consensus about the Mets offseason--it's a gap year. While the prospects of 2011 remain bright, the puppet Minaya regime are prisoners of circumstance, trapped in their bailout-funded stadium, recently painted red and blue in their latest failed attempt to appease fans. The evidence is irrefutable. The good free agent hitters won't sign because the park is too big. The good pitchers won't sign because the park isn't actually that big at all. Groundball pitchers are seeking teams with better infield defense, while the flyballs pitchers are just seeking employment. Unfortunately none of that matters, as the Madoff scandal has left the Mets with no budget at all. But we could only be that lucky, as the Wilpons actually made money off the ponzi scheme, and are prepared to invest considerable funds in the aforementioned "good" free agents, actually landmines--likely to fizzle out the second they cash their signing bonuses.

Fortunately, as is their nature, these writers have made the solution equally clear. The fundamental weaknesses remain minor league depth and fielding, so all the minor the leaguers should be sent post-haste to Toronto in a package for a pitcher who will likely walk after the season's end. Whatever money remains will be divided equally between paying-off some unwitting team to take our defensively-challenged secondbaseman and committing another four years to his similarly inept replacement.

In reality, however, the Mets have considerable advantages in this market. Many teams are still looking to shed payroll after sub-par attendance. Several talented free agents have been forced to hit the market after disappointing seasons. The Mets have payroll room and two more years of criminal-underpayment of Wright and Reyes to play with. Instead of signing Jon Garland for upwards of $10MM, they should be inquiring on Bronson Arroyo, a pitcher with better stuff and even more durable track-record, who the Reds are trying desperately to give away. The advantage here is that the Mets get their "innings-eater" on a one-year deal, while gaining leverage in a trade for a player they'd actually want to build around, like Brandon Phillips. Potentially, the Mets could even get Aaron Harang, a solid starter, not quite the caliber of John Lackey--but close enough, for little additional cost. That's $30.25MM dollars to solve their rotation issues and add another "core" player, with a cheap talent cost and without the uncertainty of negotiation, or temptation to overpay.

Or maybe the Mets will just notice that pitchers better than Jon Garland and Jason Marquis are being desperately ditched by other teams, and get the hint that multi-year, multimillion dollar commitments to pitchers with marginal stuff rarely--if ever--end well. In the never-ending myopia of the Mets brass (and some of their fans), though, the injuries of last season will create a premium on durability. Undoubtedly some nightmarish, Oliver-Perez-part-deux scenario will develop where Jeff Wilpon and John Ricco conference call with "Scott Boras," who is really just Omar Minaya in the other room, forging fake term-sheets between Jon Garland and the Brewers, which he might "accidentally" leave in the fax machine on his way out.

Get Doug Davis, Claudio Vargas, Odalis Perez, Todd Wellemeyer, whomever. They'll give you the desired 200 generic innings at virtually no cost. Get Brandon Knight back from Korea. Livan. What? Yea, Captain Rubber Arm himself. Pop quiz: who had better peripherals last season: Jon Garland or Livan Hernandez? The answer may surprise you.

Alternatively, the Mets could take Magglio Ordonez and his $18MM salary off Dave Dombrowski's hands for the inside track in negotiating a Edwin Jackson or Curtis Granderson trade. Same basic idea: rightfield is hardly a sure thing, whether you believe in Jeff Francoeur or not, and the Mets get to leverage their financial advantage to add a player for the long-term.

Both of those scenarios fill the Mets "holes," both now and in 2011-12, with a little extra cash to burn. Some have speculated that the Wilpon's budget for this season is closer to $20MM, but with so many contracts finally expiring and the luxury-tax threshold rising closer ~$160MM, they can really spend up to $50MM, if they so choose. Let's just take the first trade-scenario, the Reds one, and kind of speculate on a possible team. $31MM leaves $10MM, for the sake of being realistic, which the Mets can use to sign Rick Ankiel and Troy Glaus. Those two are solid complements to Pagan and Murphy, who have middle of the order power, when healthy. If the Mets traded for Magglio and E-Jax they could add a Sheets/Harden tandem to the rotation, which gives them four players with ace-potential. Or they could negotiate a backloaded John Lackey contract, not my favorite idea, but definitely an improvement.

Ordonez, Harang, and Arroyo are basically solid-role players with ripcords for 2011. Adding another cheap "core" caliber player also seems more necessity than luxury with Wright and Reyes' costs rising. The Mets added many high-risk, high-upside players in the 2009 offseason, but did so without accounting for the risk. Oliver Perez has no buyout. Francisco Rodriguez will destroy the payroll in 2012. J.J. Putz had an buy-out, but was a waste of talent. Now faced with high-upside free agents available on the cheap, they seem resolved to do the only thing worse: invest long-term in high-risk, no-upside players. In the year 2011, the Mets graduate their best hitting prospects in 8 years, Ike Davis and Reese Havens, but are unable to complement them with a decent leftielder or bullpen, because no one will take on Jason Marquis' contract. Wait, I know how this ends. I'll take the gap-year, please.

Lefties, Lefties Everywhere

Charlie — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 06:47:35 -0000

More photos » by Chris Carlson - AP

Would another lefty hitter like Hank Blalock, right, be the best fit for the Pirates?

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Straight to the point today: one thing I find a bit strange about the idea of the Pirates pursuing Rick Ankiel and/or Hank Blalock is that both those guys are left-handed, whereas most of the Bucs' other options at first base and right field (Garrett Jones, Jeff Clement, Brandon Moss) are too. Steve Pearce is the only righty who might be in the mix right now at first and right, and I can't believe the Bucs are still taking him seriously. If the idea in pursuing an extra corner guy is to add an extra bit of upside and perhaps hope for a nice prospect at the deadline if the new player does well, I can't really fault the Pirates for not considering the player's handedness. But if the Pirates really are serious about seeing what they have in Clement, in particular, it would seem to behoove them to find someone whose skills complement his.

Admittedly, the pickings in that area are pretty slim. Two righty free agent outfielders who might make a bit of sense are Marlon Byrd and Coco Crisp. Byrd was a regular for the Rangers this year and has played pretty well for three straight seasons, so he might require the sort of multiyear contract to which the Pirates would probably rather not commit themselves.

Crisp is a subpar hitter, but he's not old, and he's an outstanding defensive player; he could certainly handle either left or center (if that were required) in PNC. Unfortunately, his throwing arm was poor even before he had surgery on both shoulders this year, so playing him in right wouldn't work. If he were added to the roster, the Pirates could work out some sort of time share where Lastings Milledge and Garrett Jones played every day but rotated between left and right (Milledge) and right and first (Jones), while Clement and Crisp formed some sort of weird semi-platoon at the other available positions.

...This is all really speculative, and Crisp obviously isn't ideal, but I'm trying to be creative here. Given the free agent market, I can see why the Pirates would be interested in Ankiel and Blalock, and I'm not opposed to signing either of them, if they'd be willing to play in Pittsburgh. But, as much as PNC is kinder to lefties than righties, it seems a bit strange to crowd the roster with lefties. Maybe a low-leverage trade or an inspired minor league free agent signing (Ernesto Mejia of the Braves, perhaps?) would be the right move here, with the righty Pearce's initial role being determined by how credible a major league option the new acquisition is.

11/21 - Controversies, Callups, and... Contract Offers?

bs.uf15bosox9bears23 — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 10:15:08 -0000

A couple of awards were announced this week, and a few remain for next week - when I should be able to produce a lot more content, since I'll have a week off from school. (Thank you, beyond-stupid school district.) Anyways, the first few links are about the recent controversies that have been occurring in baseball.

The Carpenter Travesty - Wezen-Ball

Excellent satire. Ironically, the BBWAA got almost as mad about Law and Carrol as the sabermetric community gets when the rest of the writers mess up awards.

The Current State of Baseball Economics - Fire Brand of the American League

Good breakdown of how the arguments are being made. So sad that the game has become so corrupted, too.

McAdam: Yankees won’t bid on Bay/Hollliday - The Bottom Line

Didn't someone report this about Teixeira last season? Just saying', doesn't mean much.

Theo Epstein, Here's My Christmas List - Bleacher Report

I really hope this is one of those lists where you demand a load, and expect Santa/(I'm ignorant of what fictious person is supposed to deliver gifts in other religions, I'm sorry)/Theo to get you one or two.

Of course, that strategy never really worked out for the greedy little bugger version of me from years past; I usually ended up with a nice pack of socks, maybe a new toy car or something. Best lesson I learned: When you ask for books, you end up getting a lot more of your wish list. Basically, I blame the commercialization of a holiday for my nerdom.

Red Sox call PawSox manager Johnson up - The Providence Journal

Wait, what's Tito going to call him? Johnsie?

After the jump, some rumors and catching up on course work for our sabermetrics course.

Red Sox inquire about Holliday, A. Beltre, M. Gonzalez, R. Ankiel - Clubhouse Insider

Interesting. Obviously there's Holliday, but the rest may not have been totally expected. Beltre may be an option if we can find a way to lose Lowell's contract (sorry Mike), and Gonzalez would be a good lefty reliever. Ankiel would be a decent 5th outfielder, I guess - below average D, below average bat.

Adrian Beltre and Rick Ankiel? What's Up With The Boston Red Sox? - Bleacher Report

I'd be fine if the Red Sox signed Ankiel. It's the potential Beltre acquisition that I don't like.

Both seem like bad ideas, but I'd be less opposed to Beltre than Ankiel. If we sign Beltre, for the right price, that means found a way to get someone to take Lowell, and we didn't give up a bunch of prospects for AGon, meaning we got a good bat elsewhere. Beltre is a great defender and has a decent bat, so he could give good value on days when Youk has to play 1st - he'd be effectively replacing Kotchman, but giving better defense at a tougher position, and allowing Youk to give us maximum defensive value. Actually, Beltre seems like a pretty good idea, once we get out from under Lowell...

Déjà Vu: Mike Lowell May Be on Boston Red Sox's Trading Block - Bleacher Report

If either one is acquired in a trade, the Red Sox would move incumbent first baseman Kevin Youkilis to third base on a permanent basis.

Sound familiar?

It certainly does to Mike Lowell.

I want to do the easy thing and blame the money involved and call it a "business decision", but it's still amazing how a sport that can be so individual at times still manages to make the decision to split up a team so difficult. Mikey did so much for us, when we were expecting so little from him. We accepted him in order to get Beckett cheaper, and then he proceeded to be an offensive force for a few seasons and helped us win a World Series. If he had been healthy in 2008, we might have made the World Series for a second consecutive season. Alas, now we're looking for ways out of the contract we signed him to after he locked up the World Series MVP.

Now, for a complete change in tone, EDUCATIONAL MATERIAL!!!

Runs Created: A First Step - Intro to Sabermetrics 101

Time to catch up on the lessons I haven't been able to share with y'all. Some people think that baseball isn't as important as traditional school subjects, for some reason.

Linear Weights: The Positive and Negative (Runs) - Intro to Sabermetrics 101

BaseRuns: The Ultimate in Run Estimation (so far) - Intro to Sabermetrics 101

Last two links are boredom killers:

Peter Gammons and Gordon Edes: Five questions on the Boston Red Sox - ESPN Boston

Two well known reporters answering common questions. Too bad they give really common answers.

Tito Is Looking To Add Pitching - Boston Sports Pulse

Adding John Lackey would be perfect. The guy is a proven work horse and has shown that he can do it on the big stage playing well in the playoffs and winning a World Series in 2002. If you throw a rotation of Lester, Lackey, Beckett, Dice K, and Buchholz out there you all but eliminate the need to add a hitter beyond re-signing Bay. I am usually all for being conservative with money and winning through player development, but sometimes you don’t really have a choice. If it comes down to a couple million dollars a year, why not just pay the price and bring another World Series to Boston?

Because Lackey wouldn't guarantee us a World Series win. For the same price, we could get much more production. And we need money for the parade too, don't forget.

Links, comments, other discussions that you feel like starting, etc. I'll be back later, since I'll be hanging in Gainesville at the Swamp.

Pirates to pursue mid-tier free agents?

Eli Greenspan — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 22:52:42 -0000

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The Hot Stove Blog is reporting that the Pirates will look into signing some of the available mid-level free agents this offseason. The Pirates addressed their hole at second baseman, and are expected to be players in the relief and corner outfield markets.

"We're not just going to go sign free agents because we have the money or because we want to make our fans or ourselves feel better," Huntington said. "We're going to sign the guys that we feel can help us and that we believe won't fall into that trap [of being washed up], but also for the right dollars and the right length and right fit.

With that said, let's take a look at some corner outfielders who could fit into the Pirates' price range:

Rick Ankiel, Cardinals: Next season will be Ankiel's third full season as an outfielder, but the veteran is a good clubhouse presence and should come at reduced price after hitting .231 last season.

Jermaine Dye, White Sox: It is dependent on the market, but if Dye's price falls to 8-10 million dollars, the Pirates could make a splash, at least in Pittsburgh.

Brian Giles, Padres: After hitting just .191 in 61 games this season, Giles could be had a reduced price. The career .291 hitter with a .400 on-base percentage spent five seasons in Pittsburgh between 1999-2003.

And some relievers:

Kevin Gregg, Cubs: Gregg struggled mightily in Chicago but that should take nothing away his numbers in 2007-2008, when he posted back-to-back sub-4.00 ERA.

Chad Cordero, Mariners: Cordero hasn't pitched since 2008, but his first two seasons in the big leagues were filled with promise. He certainly can be had at a reduced price.

Scott Eyre, Phillies: Eyre is a good clubhouse guy who can be pretty effective versus lefties. In 42 games in 2009, Eyre held lefties to a .210 average with a 1.13 WHIP.

It is a little early to start predicting where players will fall on the open market, but the Pirates would be smart to start keeping tabs on some of these guys.

Dodgers Division Series In Review

Eric Stephen — Sun, 11 Oct 2009 23:06:37 -0000

More photos » by Tom Gannam - AP

Celebration is a wonderful thing

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It was a series pitting two closely matched teams against one another. In a close and short series, taking advantage of opportunities is usually the key, and the Dodgers were able to do that, sweeping away the Cardinals in three games.

The Dodgers faced the tall task of facing Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright, who will both likely finish in the top three in NL Cy Young voting, in the first two games, but the Dodgers won them both, the second in improbable fashion with an unlikely ninth-inning comeback.

The Dodgers capitalized on nearly every opportunity, but the Cardinals did not, finishing with four hits in 30 at-bats with runners in scoring position in the series. The Dodger bullpen was an asset, as expected, and the Dodger starters got progressively better in each game.

The Dodgers who lost playoff series to the Cardinals in both 1985 and 2004, plus a regular-season playoff in 1946, were able to exact some measure of revenge with a 3-0 sweep. That the team with the best record in the league and best run differential in baseball won this series was not surprising, but the sweep was an unexpected and sweet result.

Dodger Batter of the Series: Andre Ethier managed to hit just one single in three games, yet still hit .500 for the series. He slammed two home runs, a pair of doubles, and a triple, and fell just a single shy of the cycle in the clinching victory Saturday.

Dodger Pitcher of the Series: This one was an easy call, as Vicente Padilla made his mark in Dodger history with seven scoreless innings in the closeout win in Game 3. Padilla's game was just the eighth in Dodger postseason history with seven or more scoreless innings allowing four hits or fewer.

Series Record: 3-0
13 runs scored (4.33 per game)
6 runs allowed (2.00 per game)
.805 pythagorean winning percentage

Overall Seasonal Record: 98-67 (.594)
793 runs scored (4.81 per game)
617 runs allowed (3.74 per game)
.613 pythagorean winning percentage (101-64)

Game 1 Key Moments

In the top of the first inning, the Cardinals got the first three men on base, the last via intentional walk to Albert Pujols. Looking at the run expectancy matrix from Baseball Prospectus, the Cardinals would be expected to score 2.28 runs in the inning, and probably more with Matt Holliday, Ryan Ludwick, and Yadier Molina coming up. However, the Cardinals scored just one run, and that was on a botched pop fly by Ronnie Belliard behind second base. After a very long top of the inning, the Dodgers immediately answered. A Rafael Furcal single was followed by a Matt Kemp laser beam home run to center, and the Dodgers never looked back.
Randy Wolf was ineffective, and couldn't get out of the fourth inning. Jeff Weaver entered with two outs and the bases loaded, and pulled his Weaver magic yet again, getting Ryan Ludwick to ground back to the box to end the inning with the 3-2 lead preserved. In the regular season, opposing batters had just one hit in 20 at-bats against Weaver with the sacks jacked.

Game 2 Key Moments

Adam Wainwright pitched a great game in Game Two, and was cruising early, retiring the first 11 Dodgers. That is, until Ethier took him deep to tie the game at one.
With the game tied at one in the sixth inning, Joe Torre let Clayton Kershaw bat with one out. Kershaw was at 97 pitches, and although Kershaw has earned the right to be set free from his pitch count shackles at this point in the season, the Dodger bullpen is too strong not to utilize. Any advantage of Kershaw pitching over Ronald Belisario or Ramon Troncoso is greatly outweighed by the gain in having a real hitter at the plate in place of Kershaw. After grounding out in the sixth, Kershaw allowed the go-ahead run in the seventh.
On the Colby Rasmus RBI double, with nobody out, James Loney alertly cutoff the throw in the infield and nailed Rasmus at third base with one out, helping limit the Cardinals to one run in the inning.
Down one in the eighth inning, Torre used his best reliever, Jonathan Broxton, to face the all-righty heart of the lineup of Pujols, Holliday, and Ludwick. Broxton retired all three, not allowing a ball hit out of the infield, to keep the Dodgers close.
With two outs down 2-1 in the ninth, James Loney lofted an easy game-ending soft liner to left, only to have Matt Holliday misplay it, the ball hitting off his groin as Loney ended up at second base. While that play would have certainly ended the game, it's important to note the Cardinals still had an 86.7% win expectancy after the misplay.
Casey Blake drew a nine-pitch walk, leading to a game-tying single by Ronnie Belliard, who has supplanted Orlando Hudson as the regular second baseman.
After a walk to Russell Martin, Mark Loretta came through with the biggest hit of his career, ending a six-for-46 pinch hitting drought with a walk-off single, the Dodgers' 13th walk-off win of the season.

Game 3 Key Moments

The Cardinals again loaded the bases in the first inning, this time with two outs, but Vicente Padilla ended the only real scoring threat against him by inducing an inning-ending groundout by Yadier Molina.
Holding a 1-0 advantage in the third inning, Andre Ethier provided some breathing room for the Dodgers with a bomb to right field, a two-run home run to extend the lead to 3-0.
Jonathan Broxton struck out Rick Ankiel, finishing the series with a 101-mph fastball to end the Cardinals season.

Not Gonna Beat Us: The first three times Albert Pujols came to the plate with a runner in scoring position, Joe Torre decided to intentionally walk the best player in the game. Pujols was limited to one run batted in during the series, and that came with the Cardinals down five runs in the eighth inning of Game 3.

Run Record: Andre Ethier scored five runs in the series, tying the Dodger record for a division series. Manny Ramirez had five runs scored last year against the Cubs. Ethier did set the Dodger record for most extra-base hits in a division series, with five.

A Slight Concern: Matt Kemp hit his first career playoff home run in his first at-bat of the series in Game 1. However, after that, Kemp had just one hit in 13 at-bats, and had eight strikeouts.

Along For The Ride: The home opener this season had two stars -- well, three including Vin Scully -- Chad Billingsley, with his 11 strikeouts over seven innings, and Orlando Hudson, with the second cycle in LA Dodger history. Both made the National League All-Star team this year. Yet, their contribution this series was almost nil. Billingsley, who was scheduled to pitch a fourth game if needed, didn't pitch an inning, and Hudson didn't get a plate appearance, although he was used as a defensive replacement or pinch runner in all three games.

Game By Game Results:

Next Series: The Dodgers open the NLCS Thursday at Dodger Stadium, against either the Rockies or Phillies.

NLDS Stats

Player	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SB/CS	BA/OBP/SLG	OPS	BABIP
Ethier	12	5	6	2	1	2	3	1	0/0	.500/.571/1.333	1.905	.500
Furcal	12	2	6	0	1	0	2	1	0/0	.500/.500/.667	1.167	.500
Manny	13	0	4	3	0	0	2	1	0/0	.308/.357/.538	.896	.364
Blake	11	1	3	0	0	0	1	2	0/0	.273/.385/.273	.657	.300
Belliard	11	2	3	0	0	0	1	2	0/0	.273/.385/.273	.657	.500
Loney	12	0	3	0	0	0	0	1	0/0	.250/.308/.250	.558	.273
Kemp	14	2	2	0	0	1	2	0	0/0	.143/.143/.357	.500	.200
Martin	9	0	1	0	0	0	1	3	0/0	.111/.385/.111	.496	.125
Starters	94	12	28	5	2	3	12	11	0/0	.298/.380/.489	.869	.352
Loretta	1	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0/0	1.000/1.000/1.000	2.000	1.000
Thome	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0/0	.000/.333/.000	.333	.000
Hudson	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0/0	-----/-----/-----	-----	-----
Pierre	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0/0	-----/-----/-----	-----	-----
Bench	3	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0/0	.333/.500/.333	.833	.500
Pitchers	8	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0/0	.000/.000/.000	.000	.000
Totals	105	13	29	5	2	3	13	11	0/0	.276/.358/.448	.806	.329

Pitcher	G	W-L	Sv	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	ERA	WHIP	FIP
Padilla	1	1-0	--	7.0	4	0	0	1	4	0.00	0.714	2.44
Kershaw	1	0-0	--	6.2	9	2	2	1	4	2.70	1.500	3.90
Wolf	1	0-0	--	3.2	6	2	2	5	2	4.91	3.000	5.33
Starters	3	1-0	--	17.1	19	4	4	7	10	2.08	1.500	3.61
Kuo	1	0-0	--	1.0	2	0	0	0	2	0.00	2.000	-0.85
Broxton	3	0-0	1	3.2	4	1	1	0	4	2.45	1.091	0.97
Weaver	1	1-0	--	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.750	1.65
Belisario	2	0-0	--	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.000	3.15
Sherrill	3	1-0	--	2.1	1	1	1	1	0	3.86	0.857	5.72
Relievers	3	2-0	1	9.2	8	2	2	1	7	1.86	0.931	2.32
Totals	3	3-0	1	27.0	27	6	6	8	17	2.00	1.296	3.15