SB Nation - Brian Wilson

Dan Runzler: Top Prospect?

Grant — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 23:16:30 -0000

More photos » by Eric Risberg - AP

This picture has nothing to do with this post, but it showed up in my AP photo feed. That's Tito Fuentes with someone dressed up as Dean Martin and someone dressed as Marilyn Monroe. I'm sure this will derail the Dan Runzler post that I just spent an hour on, but I have no choice.

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I’ve got a rabbit season/duck season thing going in my head when the World Series ends. Prospect ranking season! Rosterbation season! Prospect ranking season! And then the prospect sites go alphabetically…and then they do the American League first…and they all spell out Saint Louis like a bunch of lawyers, so the Giants are always the 29th team covered. By the time the Giants’ list usually comes out, I’m half-blind from the rosterbation and helplessly floating six-team trade ideas that involve non-roster invitees and mascots. But at least the publishing delay usually allowed me to rank my top 30 prospects without a whole lot of outside influence. Because there’s nothing worse than having knowledgeable people and publications influence your half-baked opinions. Nothing.

Baseball America buttonhooked me, though, by reversing the order for their top-10 schedule this year and putting the Giants list up early. I had a top-30 list made, but it was a real rough mockup, and it is certainly subject to influence. Every year, there’s a ranking that surprises me. There’s always a Jackson Williams or a David Maroul slipped in the top-30, and their inclusion always makes me doubt my rankings and omissions. This year, there’s a huge surprise right there in the top-10: Dan Runzler.

I’m not surprised he slipped in the top-10, really. He gave up a half of an earned run across seventeen different levels, or so. The number five prospect, though? In the entire system? I had him as the fifteenth-best prospect when I did my preliminary list. I started second-guessing myself after receiving this "informed opinion" of "someone who has spent a lot more time researching this crap than I have." In an e-mail conversation with Andrew Baggarly – the author of the BA list, in case you’re new to this internet thing – he mentioned that:

The one guy everyone kept telling me to move up was Runzler. I had him fifth and they were still telling me he's too low. One very respected coach even told me to put Runzler above MadBum. I couldn't quite go that far.

My mind was blown. Runzler sure played the part of a top reliever when he made the majors: his fastball was fast and his curveball sure curved real purty-like. But a middle reliever’s ceiling can’t be that high, right?

I split the difference and moved Runzler up to #9 in my now-tainted rankings. I’m almost certain that I’m too biased against middle relievers. A few years ago, I ranked Brian Wilson as the #9 prospect, invoking the "he’s just a middle reliever" defense. But Wilson he’s meant more to the success of the Giants than anyone else on the list above him other than that shaggy-haired guy with all of the trophies. When a guy throws in the mid-90s and complements that with a nasty breaking ball, he has a good chance to pitch some meaningful, high-leverage innings.

So what’s the secret sauce? How high should relievers be ranked? If a guy has a fantastic power arm, should I really ding him because he only might be Arthur Rhodes, which in his prime was a pretty fantastic thing for a team to have? Obviously a starter of comparable stuff is more valuable, but what of a starter with a ceiling as a #3 or #4 guy in a rotation? Should that pitcher be higher than a potential shutdown reliever? Should I cram a few more questions into this closing paragraph?

Fantasy Baseball: More dudes you need to love in 2010.

Ian, yo — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 20:25:47 -0000

More photos » by Charles Krupa - AP

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1. Jacoby Ellsbury- It's time to compare players!

Player A (2009): 606 ABs, 15 HR, 96 R, 68 RBI, 60 SB, .305, .816 OPS

Player B (2009): 624 ABs, 8 HR, 94 R, 60 RBI, 70 SB, .301, .770 OPS

Pretty close, eh? What if I told you that player A will likely be drafted as a top three outfielder in 2010, while player B could be drafted near the third round in drafts. I'm sure you know this but Player A was Carl Crawford and B was Jacoby Ellsbury. Crawford may give you a few more home runs and Ellsbury may get you more SBs, but I'm just not drafting Crawford in the first or second round when you can get someone at a thinner position and wait on Ellsbury.

2. Jayson Werth- Could be one of the most underrated players going into drafts next year. After putting up a season with 36 home runs, 98 runs, 99 RBIm, 20 SB and hitting .268, I could see Werth being drafted after the likes of Grady Sizemore (returning from elbow surgery,) Nick Markakis, Alfonso Soriano, Jason Bay, B.J. Upton and Josh Hamilton. Each one of those players has their downside, whether if be age, durability or just plain production and I'll be happy getting a four category stud in the later rounds than to gamble on one of the bigger "names" out there.

3. Brian Wilson- I understand how it may be tough to hold off on a closer when you have such elite talents like Joe Nathan and Mariano Rivera, but there's one player who impresses me just as much as the elite closers and that guy is Brian Wilson. Over his first two seasons as the Giants full-time closer, Wilson has racked up 79 saves, 150 K, 55 BB, 122 hits in 134.2 innings. In 2008, Wilson had an ERA of 4.62 but his FIP suggested he'd pitched like a 3.93 guy and in 2009, his FIP suggested he'd pitched better than his 2.74 ERA with a 2.50. If your reliever puts up excellent K/9 and save totals, it makes it worth his higher possibility of putting up an ugly whip or ERA since one bad outing for a reliever can be offset by one decent start by another pitcher.

Poll

Which would you prefer to draft in 2010 taking ADP into account?

Jacoby Ellsbury

64 votes

Carl Crawford

38 votes

102 votes | Poll has closed

Requiem For A Season: Cubs Lose Road Finale 5-1 To Giants

Al — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 13:18:34 -0000

More photos » by George Nikitin - AP

Jeff Baker is 6-2, 210. Pablo Sandoval makes him look... tiny.

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Throughout this September, with the Cubs desperately clinging to hope of a postseason berth with a 16-9 start to the month, I kept thinking "stranger things have happened". From time to time, as you know, I'd cite various other late-season pennant collapses or pushes, such as the 1964 Phillies or 2007 Rockies, as examples of why the Cubs could come back.

Now, though, if the Cubs were to somehow pull off a miracle finish, you'd have to say "stranger things have NOT happened". With four teams ahead of them and an elimination number of one, the race is, for all intents and purposes, over.

It would, however, be fun if somehow the five teams wound up in what Baseball Musings' David Pinto calls a "massive tie". Today Pinto posts the way in which four teams could wind up tied for the NL Wild Card. That'd be fun to watch if only to see how Bud Selig would have to sputter his way through the method of breaking the tie. Right now the team with the best chance of pulling a "miracle" finish is the Braves, who on September 6 were seven games off the wild-card pace and who have now won six in a row and closed to within 2.5 games of the lead.

Yesterday, the Cubs missed their chance to have their first-ever four-game sweep of the Giants in San Francisco, losing to the Giants 5-1. Randy Wells didn't pitch too badly, but he kept getting nibbled at; he allowed eight singles and two RBI doubles to a backup catcher (Eli Whiteside) who was hitting .197 at the start of the game. How many times have we heard that story this year? Give some credit to the Giants' Matt Cain, who is one of the better pitchers in the league and who tied the Cubs in knots, throwing eight shutout innings before the Cubs got a consolation run off the Giants' bullpen. The Cubs did get enough men on base in the ninth to force Bruce Bochy to call on his closer, Brian Wilson, to finish it off.

So the Cubs will come home for a season-ending seven-game homestand against two bad teams, the Pirates and Diamondbacks, with a chance to at least end the season strong. Some will say that if the Cubs win all seven (for example) and finish the year with 88 wins, that it would "fool" management into thinking there aren't any problems. I disagree. Management clearly knows what they did wrong this year -- the sending-home of Milton Bradley is evidence of that -- and though this isn't an excuse, injuries, particularly to Aramis Ramirez and Alfonso Soriano, held this year's team back from winning more games.

The first win will give the Cubs three consecutive winning seasons for the first time since 1970-71-72. The 82nd win will also make Lou Piniella the first Cubs manager to have winning seasons in his first three years since Charlie Grimm in 1933-34-35. That's a worthy goal. And any baseball player with professional pride should want to win every time he goes on the field.

I was trying to think of comparisons in Cubs history to the disappointment we have felt over the 2009 Cubs, and "disappointment" is the right word. This wasn't a bad Cubs team, just one that wasn't quite good enough. That would make a comparison to 2004 inapt, because the 2004 Cubs were tremendously talented. Their late-season collapse wasn't in any way comparable to 2009 -- the 2004 team had the wild card in its grasp and blew it.

It's not comparable to 2001, because that was a team of overachievers that probably had no business being in contention that long. That team wound up with 88 wins; the current bunch would have to sweep the homestand to do that -- not an impossible task given the opposition. (We also wouldn't want the 2010 Cubs to do what the 2002 Cubs did -- lose 95 games.)

It's also not comparable to the 1977-78-79 teams, Cubs clubs that either were in first place or nearby for a couple of months each, because this team had far more talent than any of those.

No, I think the best comp to the 2009 Cubs would be the 1970 edition. Similarly to 2009, the 1970 Cubs had to play after a season filled with wonders, only to have the previous year's team collapse -- 2008 in the playoffs, 1969 in September. And like this year's team, after 1969 the Cubs made one significant change: they sent Oscar Gamble and Dick Selma to the Phillies for a washed-up Johnny Callison. Not only was Callison not nearly the player he had been three or four years before, but Gamble eventually became a productive player elsewhere. This forced the 1970 Cubs to play nonentities like Cleo James, Joe Pepitone, Jimmie Hall, a 33-year-old Jim Hickman, and even (for one game) Glenn Beckert in center field, much as the 2009 Cubs have mixed and matched at various positions. The 1970 Cubs got off to a hot start, racing out to a five-game lead by mid-June, and then lost 12 in a row. They never recovered -- just as the eight-game losing streak this year put the Cubs in a spot from which they just barely got back into first place in late July before having an awful August.

But also like this year's team, the 1970 Cubs had one brief "maybe" moment in September. On September 13 at Wrigley Field, the Cubs were down to their last out trailing 2-1, when Matty Alou of the Pirates dropped a routine fly ball. Given new life, the Cubs followed with three straight hits, winning the game 3-2 and moving them to within one game of first place with 17 games left. Unfortunately, the Cubs went 8-9 in those 17 games and finished five games out of first place, the closest they would come to first place in the 1967-73 era of contention.

Enough of the history lesson. Let's hope the Cubs play some fun and winning baseball in the next week, because we will all miss baseball while it is away for the winter.

Post-Game Recap: Giants Beat the Diamondbacks

Grant — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 05:27:56 -0000

More photos » by Matt York - AP

Comedian Frank Caliendo shows his displeasure after plans to let him throw the first pitch were canceled.

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It's better to be four back rather than four-and-a-half back. And don't you forget it.

Also of note: Brian Wilson got really good when we weren't looking.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Brian Wilson	5-5	64	0	0	0	35	6	69.0	58	25	20	2	25	76	2.61	1.20

Damn.

Also also of note: Freddy Sanchez should probably reevaluate his expectations for a new contract, and if he has any dignity, he'll give the Giants the first shot at a cheaper Freddy Sanchez. What a freaking disappointment.

Also also also of note:

If I had to pick which situation wouldn't be freaky-crazy, give me the 5-7/9-3 combo. Ridiculously unlikely? Of course. But not once-in-a-generation crazy.

We're in this thing, but only because hockey's so lame.

Fantasy Baseball: The Volatility of NL Closers Continues

raygu — Sat, 19 Sep 2009 14:00:19 -0000

More photos » by Bill Kostroun - AP

3 months ago: New York Mets closer Francisco Rodriguez follows through on a pitch during the ninth inning of a baseball game against the Chicago Cubs, Sunday, Sept. 6, 2009, at Citi Field in New York. Rodriguez got the save as the Mets defeated the Cubs 4-2. (AP Photo/Bill Kostroun)

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I am of the belief, as many are, that you cannot spend too much money on closers at an auction draft, or draft a closer before the 10th round in snake drafts, due to the volatility of NL Closers. Of the relievers who started the season as closer back in April, 50% have lost their job due to injury or ineffectiveness.

Let's take a look at the NL Closer picture now vs. back in April-seems like yesterday, doesn't it?

Team	Apr-09	Sept. 2009
New York	Rodriguez	Rodriguez
Philadelphia	Lidge	Madson
Florida	Lidstrom	Nunez
Atlanta	Gonzalez	Soriano
Washington	Hanrahan	McDougal

Chicago	Gregg	Marmol
Milwaukee	Hoffman	Hoffman
Houston	Valverde	Valverde
St. Louis	Motte	Franklin
Pittsburgh	Capps	Capps
Cincinnatti	Cordero	Cordero

Arizona	Qualls	Gutierrez
Los Angeles	Broxton	Broxton
Colorado	Corpas	Street
San Diego	Bell	Bell
San Francisco	Wilson	Wilson

The NL East has had the most turnover with all but Francisco Rodriguez losing their job due to ineffectiveness for the most part, lead by the Phillies Brad "Lights Out" Lidge. He has been nothing short of awful this season, blowing 10 saves, while the current closer Ryan Madson has blown 6 games himself for a 57% save percentage.

Another closer who lost his job was the Cubs Kevin Gregg as he blew 6 games this season to go with his 23 saves and 4,70 ERA. Carlos Marmol is the Cubs current closer and he will open up the 2010 season as the team closer as well.

The Cardinals Ryan Franklin, who wasn't even in the team's closer picture during spring training has rewarded owners who dropped a buck or two on him by having his best year of his career with 37 saves, a 1.93 ERA, a 1.107 WHIP, but only a 1.90 K/BB ratio. His success can be attributed to an increase in his GB/FB ratio from 0.76 to 0.89, and lowering his HR/FB% from 8.90% to 2.6%. Franklin's career GB/FB ratio is 0.64 and his HR/FB% is 8.3%, so he may regress to his major league averages in 2010, so don't draft him too early or spend too much on him. Plus, his manager is Tony Larussa, who usually changes closers quite frequently.

As a result, there aren't too many reliable closers in the NL with the exception of the Dodgers Jonathan Broxton, the Giants Brian Wilson, the Padres Heath Bell and the Astros Jose Valverde.

I did not include the Mets Francisco Rodriguez, as his 2009 K/BB ratio and GB/FB ratio both dropped this season, and his HR/FB ratio almost doubled. All in all, this year was his worst year in the last five years in terms of K/BB, GB/FB and HR/FB ratios. This is something to monitor going into the 2010 season. I wouldn't want to waste a high draft pick or spend too much on him in 2010 drafts.

Poll

Would you spend $30 on Francisco Rodriguez in 2010 auction drafts?

No, his peripheral stats aren't encouraging.

44 votes

Yes, 2009 was an aberration.

6 votes

50 votes | Poll has closed

Giants must see history repeated

Poseidon's Fist — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 18:00:40 -0000

More photos » by Eric Risberg - AP

The playoffs will soon be out of reach

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San Francisco sees this series as a great opportunity, though really it is their last legitimate opportunity to pull back into the race. They will need to replicate the sweep they pulled off to close August to even pull within 1.5 games, and that won't be so easy. They are just 5-7 since that sweep, 2-7 in games not started by Brad Penny, whose rotation slot does not come up for the series.

Here's the scenario. After this series is over, the Giants will have 16 games left. If the Rockies sweep, the ensuing 7.5 game deficit effectively eliminates the Giants, but you probably already thought that. If the Rockies win the series, a 5.5 game deficit would be practically insurmountable. For reference, the Rockies surreal once-in-a-lifetime Rocktober run had them 4.5 games out with 16 back.

So if the Giants don't win this series, the Rockies are in the playoffs. Even if the Giants win the series though, they won't sweep again, though they need to. Given the Rockies have 9 of 15 games remaining at home after the series, catching the Rockies from a 3.5 game deficit would be extremely difficult as is. I would go as far as guaranteeing the playoffs at that point barring injuries. I just can't see lightning (a sweep) striking twice, even though they are tossing out the same Lincecum/Zito/Cain trio that debuted as a series triumverate with that sweep against the Rockies at the end of August.

The Giants see this as an opportunity, but really, the opportunity belongs to Colorado. If the Giants can't capilatize on their head-to-head battles with a sweep, the Rockies will have buried the Giants to the point of non-Rocktober-caliber elimination. Sweep or die.

San Francisco Giants (77-66, W1, 3rd, 4.5 GB WC, 7.5 GB Div)

Monday-Wednesday: 3-game series at AT&T Park

The Bats: F

Bruce Bochy has atrociously constructed his lineup all season, and he hasn't learned. Sure, he has practically nothing to work with, but that's not enough of an excuse. I suppose perfect lineup construction wouldn't help them with how poor their bats are though. If you need a refresher course, check here or here or here. Sure adding Freddy Sanchez will help some, but he's not really a significant threat (his wOBA this year is worse than what Eric Young Jr has done so far, but with the Giants, it has been worse than Garrett Atkins' level). Here's the grossness:

LINEUP	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Eugenio Velez - LF	.270	4	20	.319	.417	.321
Freddy Sanchez - 2B	.293	7	39	.328	.425	.326
Pablo Sandoval - 3B	.322	21	77	.377	.541	.384
Bengie Molina - C	.260	17	70	.279	.430	.300
Ryan Garko - 1B	.270	13	51	.343	.432	.340
Nate Schierholtz - RF	.275	5	29	.308	.415	.307
Aaron Rowand - CF	.269	14	57	.326	.438	.333
Edgar Renteria - SS	.252	5	48	.309	.331	.284

By wOBA metrics, the lineup features one All-Star caliber players (Sandoval), one above average hitter (Garko), two about average hitters (Rowand and Sanchez), two below average hitters (Schierholtz and Velez), one on the cusp of terrible (Molina) and one that is just flat out bad (Renteria).

Bochy's glut of reserve infielders include Juan Uribe (.279, 12, 40), Travis Ishikawa (.254, 9, 35), Ryan Rohlinger (1-for-10), Jesus Guzman (2-for-16), Rich Aurilia (.225, 2, 15) and Kevin Frandsen (.146, 0, 1). Fred Lewis (.266, 4, 16), John Bowker (.205, 1, 5), Andres Torres (.250, 3, 16), and Randy Winn (.263, 2, 48) have gotten starts in the outfield as well. Rookie Eli Whiteside (.212, 1, 8) is Molina's backup catcher, while Buster Posey (0-1, K) has been called up to effectively wash Whiteside's jock.

Hop after the jump for the scouting report on the arms, the D, the pitching matchups, injuries and the hot/cold players.

The Arms: A

The first time Tim Lincecum, Barry Zito and Matt Cain pitched in the same series, they swept the Rockies at AT&T Park. Now they will try to do it again. Lincecum and Cain were no-brainer All-Stars and Barry Zito is having a strong season, helped mostly by the Rockies. The Giants rank in the top three in just about every pitching category there is - impressive given they don't get a benefit from the home park, and their bullpen is very solid at the back end. As we have seen though, should a starter get chased early, or if a game goes extra innings, that bullpen is vulnerable.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Brian Wilson	5-5	62	0	0	0	34	6	67.0	57	25	20	2	25	72	2.69	1.22

Brian Wilson, who I hear is dumb, has seven straight scoreless appearances (hey! - that's how many Heath Bell had coming into the weekend!). After Wilson, there's lefties Jeremy Affeldt, Dan Runzler and Madison Bumgarner to go with righties Sergio Romo, Bob Howry, Merkin Valdez, Justin Miller, Waldis Joaquin, Joe Martinez and Brandon Medders.

The D: B+

The Giants' UZR/150 has dropped three entire spots in the last two weeks, yet they still come in at MLB's 5th best, which slots them 3rd most valuable according to Fangraphs. Playing Velez at second is partly to blame for the fall, though Sanchez should be starting at least two of the games in the series there.

The Ballpark: Hitter's Park

AT&T squelches home runs, given there really is no "power alley." However, the spacious outfield has plenty of room for hits, and the park factor reflects it, coming in solidly on the offensive side at 103/104.

Probable Pitchers:

Tonight, 8:15 pm MDT

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jason Hammel	8-7	29	26	1	0	0	0	150.1	177	81	72	12	38	107	4.31	1.43

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Tim Lincecum	13-5	29	28	4	2	0	0	200.1	150	59	52	9	55	233	2.34	1.02

Hammel has been the ultimate secret weapon for the Rockies at the back end of the rotation. Despite his opponents reading like an All-Star team (Cain x 2, Santana, Moyer, Randy Wells, Josh Johnson, Kershaw, Haren, Arroyo) in his last ten starts, the Rockies have won six of them. That's incredible for a fifth starter. We have a new dragon slayer, and he has the 11th best WAR in the NL, no kidding. He has strung together 8 straight starts of 3 ER or less. Dan O'Dowd earned his Christmas bonus. Tim Lincecum is the best pitcher in the National League, but he is coming off of back spasms. On top of that, he only has one win in his last six starts, though that's not obviously his fault. You can't bet against Lincecum at home (8-1, 1.83 ERA), though Hammel has the ability to keep things interesting. I find it fitting that to slay the Giants, the Rockies begin with a David vs. Goliath matchup. Favors: GIANTS moderately

Tuesday, September 15, 8:15 MDT

W-L G GS CG SHO SV BS IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP

2009 - Ubaldo Jimenez 13-10 29 29 1 0 0 0 195.1 164 74 72 12 73 167 3.32 1.21

W-L G GS CG SHO SV BS IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP

2009 - Barry Zito 9-12 30 29 1 0 0 0 171.1 159 78 76 18 70 132 3.99 1.34

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Ubaldo Jimenez	13-10	29	29	1	0	0	0	195.1	164	74	72	12	73	167	3.32	1.21

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Barry Zito	9-12	30	29	1	0	0	0	171.1	159	78	76	18	70	132	3.99	1.34

Ubaldo Jimenez returns to the rotation after getting a couple days off with a hamstring injury he sustained scoring a run. The injury bothered him a bit, as he surrendered three runs the following inning and lasted just six innings. He had gone 7 starts without allowing more than 2 ER and 8 starts of going more than 6.0 IP. Jimenez has lost just one of his 11 starts since the All-Star Break, and the Rockies are 9-2 in those starts. Zito struggled in his last two starts against two fairly unfrightening offenses (San Diego and Milwaukee) but, like Jimenez, Zito has not allowed more than 3 ER in a post-ASB start. He has feasted on Rockies hitters, since his strike-throwing loopy curve style goes against the Rockies strengths of patience and crushing fastballs. Zito is 1-0 with an anemic 0.42 ERA against the Rockies this year in three starts covering 21.1 IP. Favors: ROCKIES moderately.

Wednesday, September 16, 8:15 MDT

W-L G GS CG SHO SV BS IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP

2009 - Jorge De La Rosa 14-9 29 28 0 0 0 0 166.2 159 86 81 20 75 170 4.37 1.40

W-L G GS CG SHO SV BS IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP

2009 - Matt Cain 13-5 29 29 4 0 0 0 196.1 162 60 57 20 68 151 2.61 1.17

Jorge de la Rosa has allowed just one run in each of his last three starts, part of an 11 of 15 string in which he has permitted two or less. As a starter, de la Rosa actually has a Runs Above Average of 30.8, a tick better than Matt Cain's 30.4, for what it's worth. I'll never get tired of noting this as long as it still rings true. The Rockies have lost just 2 of the last 16 games in which DLR has pitched. He has won both starts vs the Giants this season, though he was terrible in one of them. Matt Cain has won just one of his last 9 starts, though the Giants won five of those. He's still second in MLB in ERA/FIP disparity. He is 2-1 with a 3.60 ERA vs Colorado in 4 starts this year and has very even home/road splits. The game has earned the late night national broadcast on ESPN. Favors: DRAW.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jorge De La Rosa	14-9	29	28	0	0	0	0	166.2	159	86	81	20	75	170	4.37	1.40

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Matt Cain	13-5	29	29	4	0	0	0	196.1	162	60	57	20	68	151	2.61	1.17

My take

The Rockies will all but eliminate the Giants by winning at least one game. Winning the series is certainly possible though.

Brian Wilson has tossed seven straight scoreless outings, though only one featured no baserunners. Juan Uribe will start at least one game, maybe two, given his 5 September HR, hitting .349 for the month. Sergio Romo hasn't allowed even one hit his last five appearances.

Pablo Sandoval is hitting just .220 with zero dingers this month. Perhaps he returned from injury prematurely? Aaron Rowand and Edgar Renteria are both hitting under the Mendoza line this month. Merkin Valdez had that debacle against Ryan Spilborghs at Coors Field, but he was even worse Friday, allowing four runs without getting an out against Los Angeles.

Oddly, the Giants have no players on the 15-day DL. Noah Lowry (ribs) has been on the 60 day DL since at least Opening Week, and P Kelvin Pichardo (shoulder - 6/28), Emmanuel Burriss (foot- 9/1) and Henry Sosa (shoulder - 8/5) are now keeping him company. Tim Lincecum missed his last start with back spasms but is expected to take the mound tonight, though he is still listed as "probable." Randy Johnson has seen no setbacks of yet in his attempt to return to action with the Giants in their bullpen after a trapezius injury in early July.

Poll

Will the Giants be vanquished?

Completely. Beating Lincecum will completely deflate the Giants, initiating their ensuing roll-over.

26 votes

Yes. The Rockies will win this series, placing the Giants further out than the Rockies were in 2007 at the same point.

59 votes

Almost. The Rox win one game, keeping the Gigantes on their death bed, but someone else will have to put the nail in the coffin.

91 votes

Nope. Lightning strikes twice, and the Giants are less than two games back. Hold on to your hats.

63 votes

239 votes | Poll has closed

Post-Game Recap: Giants Win Behind Cain, Wilson

Grant — Sat, 05 Sep 2009 23:28:13 -0000

by Morry Gash - AP

Caption contest.

View full size photo »

And, uh, maybe Velez. But I'm pretty sure Lewis would have fielded that ground ball to end the eighth too.

Remember this game? Well, that's just the post-game recap; the real meat is in the GameThread after Wilson coughed up the save. Apparently, that game ended the season.

So raise a glass to Brian Wilson, probably the most underrated part of the contending season to this point. He's been pretty danged fantastic down the stretch.

And that Cain guy's pretty good too.

Great win. I won't even complain about not seeing Buster Posey again.

Giants 3, Brewers 2

KLSnow — Sat, 05 Sep 2009 03:35:26 -0000

W: Brandon Medders (4-1)
L: Todd Coffey (4-4)
S: Brian Wilson (33)

HR: Bengie Molina (17)

MVP: Ryan Braun (+.082)
LVP: Casey McGehee (-.205)

Win Expectancy Graph
SBNation Coverage

Jeff Suppan pitched well, but the Brewers let him down.

Suppan didn't allow a hit until the fifth inning tonight, and left the game having allowed just two hits, two unearned runs and four walks in 5.2 innings of work. The score was tied at 2 into the eighth, when Bengie Molina's solo home run off Todd Coffey gave the Giants the lead for good.

The Brewers managed just six hits in the game but had ten walks, including two each for Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, Felipe Lopez and Jason Kendall. A bunch of long at bats early in the game led to an early departure for Barry Zito, who threw 96 pitches over four innings. The Brewers had at least one runner on in every inning, but only scored in the first.

Rockies Roll Over Against Zito, Lose 5-3 to Giants

Jabberwocky — Sun, 30 Aug 2009 03:56:34 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

He's a Fat Panda.

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Well, this was not at all what Rockies fans were hoping for from the first two games of this crucial three game set against the Giants. Colorado was befuddled and decidedly unclutch against the overpaid but decent Barry Zito (9-11, 3.94), who went 8.1 IP, allowing eight hits and one run while striking out seven, and then a furious ninth-inning rally fell just short. Jason Marquis, who pitched six innings and gave up five runs on nine hits, took the loss (14-9, 3.60) and Brian Wilson put out the fire for his 32nd save.

A ninth inning Brad Hawpe home run saved the Rockies from the embarrassment of a second complete game shutout, snapping a 23.1 inning scoreless streak and chasing Zito. After that Ian Stewart, Yorvit Torrealba, pinch-hitter Seth Smith (who really needs to play everyday), and Todd Helton strung singles together to pull Colorado within two, but ultimately the task was too much for Clint Barmes (who flew out) and the Rockies.

Oddly enough, every Rockies starter except Troy Tulowitzki got a hit, but Colorado only managed the three ninth inning runs on 12 hits. Of course, they were victimized by poor BABIP luck and unusual double plays, but the fact remains that the Rockies didn't get the job done in the clutch until it was a little too late.

It was the Rockies' fourth consecutive loss since pulling within two games of LA for the division lead on Tuesday. With the loss and the Dodgers' win, the Rockies fell five games behind LA in the NL West. More importantly, however, their lead in the wild card standings was reduced to just one game.

On a more positive note, the last time the Rockies lost four straight they followed it up with an eleven game winning streak. So we've got that going for us, which is nice.

Box Score

72 - 58

Games Back: 5

Streak: Lost 4

Games Left: 32

Colorado now needs to beat Matt Cain with Jason Hammel to leave the City by the Bay with their Wild Card lead intact. It's a tall order, but hopefully with a lineup that includes Carlos Gonzalez and Seth Smith (fingers crossed), Colorado will be able to pull it off.

via www.fangraphs.com

Not a great graph, despite the rally in the ninth.

Didn't Embarass Themselves: Garrett Atkins (.061), Helton (.038), Smith (.025)
Growing Goat Horns: Barmes (-.179), Hawpe (-.168), Tulowitzki (-.111),

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Rockies taken down a notch by Lincecum and Giants, lose 2-0

Rox Girl — Sat, 29 Aug 2009 04:40:48 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

3 months ago: San Francisco Giants' Tim Lincecum works against the Colorado Rockies during the first inning of a baseball game Frday, Aug. 28, 2009, in San Francisco. (AP Photo/Ben Margot)

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Tim Lincecum pitched eight shutout innings, shooting down any threat the Rockies were able to mount. Pablo Sandoval hit a solo home run off Ubaldo Jimenez and Eugenio Velez later added a run scoring single. Juan Uribe tripled and scored in the eighth off of Matt Daley, forcing me to add this sentence to something that was already pretty neat and tidy. Oh wait, Daley got out of that, never mind. Nice job, rook. Brian Wilson got the save.

The Rockies need to score more. Preferably starting tomorrow.

72 - 57

Games Back: 3.5

Streak: Lost 3

Games Left: 34

via www.fangraphs.com

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