SB Nation - Jack Hannahan

Full of Hitting Depth

Matthew — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 04:48:25 -0000

Ryan Langerhans, Bill Hall, Michael Saunders, Jack Hannahan, Ken Griffey Jr., Mike Carp and Matt Tuiasosopo. Those are the people currently on the 40-man roster who profile as bench bats or a starter at designated hitter, first base or left field for 2010. That's seven names for six spots (the three starting jobs plus three bench roles) and that's before we sign anyone else. Heaven forbid those are the seven Don Wakamatsu has to pick from for those last six spots come end of Spring Training.

Here is where I would love to throw in some clear facts on which players have options remaining, but MLB's player option rules are murkier than lead and so the best I can do are educated guesses. Langerhans, Hall, Hannahan and Griffey are out of options while it appears that Saunders, Carp and Tuiasosopo all have two options remaining.

If the Mariners add two more bats in the DH/1B mold (say Nick Johnson and Russell Branyan), then clearly Carp and Tui head back to Tacoma. However, that still leaves seven players for six spots. The consensus so far has been that Saunders is penciled in as the starting left fielder and thus Ryan Langerhans would appear to be the odd man out, a victim of a overprotective seven-men bullpen. I wonder though, given Saunders struggles in his Seattle showcase, and the roster situation, would it not make more sense to send Saunders back to Tacoma, he only has 387 PAs at the Triple-A level after all, and start the season with a Langerhans/Hall platoon in left field?

If the team only adds one more hitter, then this is moot, but given that it appears the team considers neither first base nor designated hitter filled, it seems an interesting discussion to be had, one with reasonable arguments on multiple sides.

It is also a key discussion no matter where the second hitter is added. If the team did manage to sign Adrian Beltre, and held onto Jose Lopez, then Chone Figgins would get moved to left field and Michael Saunders demoted. Or if the team inked Mike Cameron, same result for Saunders. In either case a lock for the team replaces one of your optionable players and takes a roster spot up, once again forcing you into a two spots for three guys decision.

64-61, Quick Game Notes

Jeff — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 07:57:55 -0000

More photos » by Elaine Thompson - AP

With other general managers around the league beginning to value defense more highly, Billy Beane has had to turn his sights to the undervalued and underappreciated pool of talented retards.

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Just a handful of brief notes from another M's/A's game that no one'll remember by the weekend.

A decent but by no means exceptional start for Ian Snell. Though the A's loaded their lineup with left-handed hitters, not a one of them came in with an OPS north of .770, and at some point you'd like to think that a lineup is sufficiently bad that platoon splits shouldn't matter that much. Nevertheless, Snell struggled to throw consistent strikes and punch people out, and while I'm not going to say I'm disappointed or anything, I'd just like to caution those of you who may be inclined to believe that he's already turning the corner. In 2007, he struck out 20% of the batters he's faced. He's below 12% as a Mariner. I'm excited to have him, but there is still lots and lots of work to be done.

It wasn't long ago that we were talking about Jack Hannahan as a guy who might be putting it together at the plate. As a guy who finally learned to apply all of his skills in order to generate some positive results. Since then he's hit .195 with two doubles. Never read too much into a small sample size. Never. Though you might think you've spotted something, nothing - nothing - is certain until you have enough data.

When Michael Saunders first came up, my impression was that he was a rangey kid who still had a lot of learning to do in the outfield. Sure enough, we've seen him get some bad jumps and make some absentminded mistakes, but he's still been able to cover so much ground that he comes out an overall positive. That diving catch to rob Mark Ellis was terrific. As expected, range trumps everything else, and there's no doubt in my mind that Saunders is a defensive asset.

The strangest thing I've read all day long is Baseball-Reference's claim that, at some point in his Major League career, Jose Lopez hit an opposite-field home run.

Seriously though, I don't know why pitchers ever give Lopez anything hard on the inner half. He waits for high inside fastballs. I'm convinced that's all he does. How many times have we seen him get out in front of an inside offspeed pitch and kill it foul into the third base-side bleachers? He has the most indistinguishable 18 home runs I've ever seen.

Fans everywhere tend to get excited by beanball wars and emptying dugouts, but there is no better response to a questionable HBP than a home run. As soon as Griffey's dinger cleared the fence, there was no point in plunking a guy later on. The M's had already issued their retort.

Sean White hasn't walked a guy so far in August. Since 8/2, he's thrown 187 pitches over 15 innings, whiffing six while throwing 63% strikes. It's not much to go on, but at least he's finally distanced himself from that ~1 K/BB he was hanging around all through the first half.

Every person is unique in his or her own special way. Alexander Ovechkin is unique because he can do in skates what most people can't do in shoes. Luciano Pavarotti was unique because he could hit and sustain notes few even thought possible. Scott Hairston is unique because every night he goes to bed wishing he could play for the Padres.

Thursday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 14:35:57 -0000

More photos » by Nam Y Huh - AP

Ladies and gentlemen, I present to you: the last time we'll ever see Bill Hall looking clueless after a strikeout in a Brewer uniform.

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Some things to read while abbreviating your quotes.

It's another rough week to be a Brewer fan, but at least Doug Melvin found a way to unload Bill Hall. Reactions from around the web:

Tom H. reports the Brewers are saving at least $1.3 million in salary for next season by trading Hall. That's the portion of his salary that will be paid by the Mariners.
Brewer Paradise Lost says Melvin is a genius for finding a team willing to take on any of Hall's salary.
Gord Ash told Adam McCalvy that one other team was interested in Hall, but the rumors about Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo were incorrect. Both potential trades were for minor leaguers.
Over at The Hardball Times, Jeff takes a look at the decision to give Hall a long term deal following the 2006 season, and still concludes it was the right move to make at the time.
The Bucky Channel is surprised Jack Z. had any interest in Hall.
Meanwhile, on the Mariners' side, Lookout Landing is playing the "He could be a great player if he puts it all together" card we've all become so familiar with over the last few years.
Pro Ball NW is calling Hall a "free lottery ticket" and expects him to platoon with Jack Hannahan at third.

Meanwhile, the Brewers are off today while they travel to Washington to open a four game series there. If you're a Brewer fan in the DC area, the Nationals have quite the deal for you: For one dollar, fans can get into the ballpark at 2 pm tomorrow, see the press conference introducing Stephen Strasburg and stay to see the Nats take on Manny Parra and the Brewers. Nats320 has more about the promotion.

The trip to Washington will be a return home for Felipe Lopez, who had a very forgettable three-year run as a National between 2006 and 2008 before being released. As part of tomorrow's game preview, Adam McCalvy has a look at Lopez's time as a Brewer and his rebound from some defensive lapses a couple of weeks ago.

Unfortunately for the Nats, they won't get to face Carlos Villanueva this weekend, at least as a starter. With today's off day, the Brewers had the opportunity to skip a starter this weekend, and Carlos Villanueva is the one getting the hook, with Mike Burns getting the start Saturday. Both Jeff Suppan and Dave Bush are expected back in the rotation by the next turn.

With Yovani Gallardo stuck on 11 wins, it looks like the Brewers will be without a 20 game winner again this season. As Chris Jaffe notes at The Hardball Times, 23 teams have had a 20 game winner since Teddy Higuera did it for the Brewers in 1986. Only Baltimore, Philadelphia, San Diego, Montreal/Washington, Colorado and Tampa Bay have longer active droughts.

In the minors:

Mike Jones' AAA debut didn't go so well last night, as he allowed six runs on ten hits and struck out no one in four innings and the Sounds lost 11-1. Hopefully it was just nerves and he'll settle down in his next start.
The Brewers spent $1.2 million signing Kentrail Davis, well over slot value for his pick, but it could have been much worse: The Biz of Baseball noted that Davis' deal was about 42% over slot, the lowest percentage among Scott Boras clients who signed on deadline day.
Brewerfan.net has a new Power 50 with Alcides Escobar moving into the #1 spot and most of the 2009 draft picks being slotted in. (FanShot)
The Tuscaloosa News has a look at the negotiation process with 15th round pick Del Howell, who at one point said he was "90% sure" he was returning to Alabama next season.
The Brevard County Manatees continue to have a successful season: They have the fourth best winning percentage in all of minor league baseball, according to Baseball America.
Timber Rattlers reliever Nick Tyson is the prospect of the week over at Between the Green Pillars.

On power rankings and postseason odds:

Beyond the Box Score moved the Brewers up one spot from 24 to 23 in their rankings.
MLB FanHouse dropped the Brewers one spot to 20th.
CoolStandings gives the Brewers a 1.2% chance of making the playoffs.
MLB Playoff Odds gives them .6%.

Maybe I should just forget all of this and write a blog about Anthony Witrado. Miller Park Drunk's post from a couple of weeks ago calling for his firing was the seventh most popular post in site history. That's saying a lot, because he's consistently got some pretty good stuff over there.

Speaking of people we don't like much around here, Jason Kendall received one fifth place vote in Dugout Central's poll asking for former stars who are playing their way out of the big leagues.

Around baseball:

Dodgers: Signed Vicente Padilla.
Indians: Placed Trevor Crowe on the DL with an oblique strain.
Rangers: Placed Eddie Guardado on the DL with knee inflammation.
Reds: Placed Johnny Cueto (shoulder inflammation) and Willy Taveras (strained quad) on the DL.

At FanGraphs, R.J. Anderson looks at the Dodgers' decision to sign Vicente Padilla and wonders if they made the wrong decision when they traded Claudio Vargas to the Brewers. Vargas has turned out to be a useful arm in the bullpen, but wouldn't have been stretched out enough to fill a vacancy in the rotation for the Dodgers.

Sometimes you just have to take a step back and be happy for what you have. The 2009 Brewers may be a disappointment, but the team continues to invest in the future, signing all of this year's high draft picks. The Blue Jays, meanwhile, have fallen out of contention, dealt Alex Rios and Scott Rolen to free up money, and still let three of their top four draft picks walk away. Things are going to get worse before they get better in Toronto. Maybe much worse.

The Royals are 47-73, in last place in the AL Central and in the conversation for baseball's worst record. Yet somehow, they've almost made it through the entire season without a single player making their major league debut. One would think that will change in September, but the fact that it hasn't changed yet is pretty surprising.

Earlier this week Jason Marquis was brought up as a potential free agent signing for the Brewers this offseason. If the Brewers plan to pursue him, they'll also need to purchase a copy of Connect Four, because that's apparently how he prepares for starts.

On this day in 1992, the Brewers tagged David Wells for 13 earned runs on eleven hits and five walks in 4.1 innings en route to a 16-3 victory over the Blue Jays. Six Brewers had multiple hits, but John Jaha had the only home run.

Happy birthday today to Nick Green, who turns 25, and Tom Brunansky, who hit .187/.263/.317 as a Brewer in 1993 and 1994 and turns 49.

Oh, and I consider myself somewhat of a mac and cheese expert, but I don't get how this is even possible.

Drink up.

A Thought

Jeff — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 21:02:55 -0000

Jack Wilson, 31, is an exemplary defensive shortstop. He is very clearly comfortable at his position, and according to the numbers we have, he's probably worth 5 or 10 runs above average in the field. He doesn't, however, have much of a bat, with a career wOBA of .298 and a ZiPS projection of .294.

Jack Hannahan, 29, is an examplary defensive third baseman. He is very clearly comfortable at his position, and according to the numbers we have, he's probably worth 10 or 15 runs above average in the field. Recently he's begun taking balls in the middle infield and getting some time at short, where last night he made a sensational diving stop to his left. The positional adjustment we have for moving from 3B to SS is worth about five runs, and there's little reason to believe that Hannahan won't be able to handle the change. He doesn't, however, have much of a bat, with a career wOBA of .298 and a ZiPS projection of .306.

56-51, Game Notes

Jeff — Thu, 06 Aug 2009 06:42:11 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Riedel - AP

Colon looks in, gets his sign, and readies for the pitch to CAT CAT THERE IS A CAT ON THE FIELD EVERYBODY PAY ATTENTION TO THE CAT

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I've learned something about myself these last two nights. Honestly, I don't know why it never dawned on me until just now. And what I've learned is that, for all the talk about how offense is exciting and chicks dig the longball and the Rockies kept selling out because there was non-stop action, for me - and I'm only talking about me, here - while high-scoring games can be a fun change of pace from time to time, they rapidly lose their appeal as they start to drag on. Which, in turn, means that duration is a bigger determinant in how much I enjoy watching a baseball game than the level of offense. In terms of an equation:

Enjoyment = Aα + Bβ + Cγ + Dδ +…

There are a whole lot of different factors that can affect how much I enjoy watching a baseball game. Leverage. Significance. Whether the Mariners win or lose. And so on. All of those things are included above as separate variables. But what I've learned tonight is that

If α = level of offense and β = duration

Then B > A

The first two games of this series have taken something like seven combined hours to complete. I'm glad the M's came out on top of both of them, but rather than happy and enthralled, all I've been for much of those seven hours is bored and annoyed. Congratulations, Mariners - your wins have taken so long that at several points I've lost interest and felt like a bad fan for doing so. That's not how this is supposed to work.

Thank you for winning. Winning is neat. Now just please do me the courtesy of hurrying up.

Reflecting on his performance and then looking at the box score, Luke French pitched a better game than his line would suggest. Both home runs were on pitches I imagine he'd like to have back - particularly Gordon's, which came on a high-80s 1-0 fastball literally in the center of the zone - but outside of those, I thought he looked pretty good for what he is. Though both the TV radar gun and the PITCHf/x reported velocities seemed high, French still got some fastballs up there at 90+ and he seems to have "sneaky" heat, in that his fastballs look faster than they really are. I don't know what causes that sort of thing, but that was my impression, and by and large he was able to put it where he wanted.

As for French's secondary pitches - for one thing, he threw them a lot. 43% offspeed on the game. And for another, they were effective. 26 of 38 were thrown for strikes, six missed bats, and only one was hit particularly hard. What's interesting is that, where he came in having excelled with his slider, tonight it was his changeup that stole the show. Although I guess that was mostly the doings of Miguel Olivo, who swung at five changeups and missed four of them. Still, Olivo's a big league hitter, and French's change threw him for a loop. It's encouraging to see him working off that pitch pretty well since it was a big part of his success in AAA.

When you look at French's fastball and tendency to pitch up in the zone, you'd think he's always due to get shelled. But throw in a pair of good offspeed pitches and an ability to move the ball around the zone and you get a guy who's better than being just another Garrett Olson. Olson couldn't even throw strikes today with a giant lead. French threw strikes with more than two-thirds of his pitches. A skeptic might call him "Garrett Olson with command," but Garrett Olson with command isn't Garrett Olson anymore, and that's why I think French could be a pretty good piece. When you can locate and work against both lefties and righties, you've got an excellent chance of contributing at the Major League level. Though hardly spectacular, what I saw from French tonight only served to confirm my moderately optimistic expectations.

I can't get over how uncomfortable and awkward Olson looks in a baseball uniform. I know that sounds weird but you'll notice it too the next time you see him, and then that's all you'll be able to see for the rest of the season. I don't like to wear shorts. However, I get hot really easily, so I went to try on some shorts the other day, but when I put them on I didn't at all feel like myself. That's how I see Garrett Olson in a baseball uniform. Like he doesn't have any confidence in his image because he's wearing something he doesn't think suits his body.

I think it's high time we give this segment a new name.

As if the 222 games of Major League experience weren't enough of a clue that Koplove isn't going to be making any prospect lists, Dave Sims chimed in with - and this is an exact quote - "Didn't even know he was still bouncing around baseball. Thought he hung 'em up."

Any act of building is building to the future. This is like Mitch Hedberg/every picture is of you when you were younger all over again.

In the top of the third inning, Michael Saunders ripped a 3-1 low-inside fastball down the right field line for his first ever Major League triple. As a starter, Kyle Davies has a career 5.92 tRA over nearly 500 innings. I wonder if it still counts as your first career Major League triple if you hit it off a AAA arm.

As evidenced by the promotion at Kauffman today, 80s Night is a popular phenomenon for people of all ages. It gives them an excuse to wear clothes they'd never wear, use words they'd never use, sing along to songs they'd never sing along to, and generally just celebrate a memorable but nevertheless thankfully distant decade that hasn't stood the test of time. It's an opportunity for people college-aged or older to reflect on all the stupid shit they used to like so many eons ago, and for people high school-aged or younger to look at their parents and wonder what the hell was wrong with them. Now here's a thought: the Royals haven't won more than 84 games in a season since 1989, and they haven't made the playoffs since 1985.

Miguel Batista inherited a 10-4 lead and threw 14 strikes out of 28 pitches. Garrett Olson inherited an 11-5 lead and threw 20 strikes out of 37 pitches. Without being able to record catcher glove location prior to each pitch, we don't have a real good measure of pitcher command. Strike rate in blowouts, however, might be a useful proxy, because there's no good reason to nibble around the edges. Hey, by that test, guess which relievers of ours who pitched today don't have good command?

Yuniesky Betancourt as a Royal:

OSwing%: 22.9% (25.0% league average)
ZSwing%: 67.5% (65.7% league average)
Zone%: 63.2% (49.3% league average)

Over the last 30 days, Yuni's Zone% - the percentage of pitches thrown within the strike zone - has been the highest in baseball, 4% above Jason Kendall. Pitchers are clearly just going right after him, not the least bit afraid that he's going to deliver much damage. In Yuni's defense, though, at least his discipline looks to be quite a bit better. I'm not going to jump to any conclusions because there are sample size issues here to take into consideration, but as a member of the Royals, Yuni has swung at fewer balls out of the strike zone than the average Major Leaguer. If you remember what he was like as an M, that's just a little bit flabbergasting. For them, this is an encouraging sign of progress. And I actually think that's pretty cool.

Jack Hannahan got to play two innings in the field at short in relief of Jack Wilson, diving at but missing a groundball single. I'm surprised the Mariners are giving him the opportunity to work on his versatility at the Major League level, but I'm also ecstatic, because the prospect of Hannahan as a utility player tickles me in all the right places, and this way I don't have to watch any Chris Woodward. Hannahan's approach to hitting makes it really, really hard for me to believe he's as bad as his numbers, and should his plus defense translate to other positions around the infield, he could very well turn out to be quite the find.

A cat running around the living room: not interesting. A cat running around the street and the sidewalk: somewhat interesting. A cat running around the living room of someone who doesn't own a cat: more interesting. A cat running around a baseball field during the middle of a game: maximum level of interest. Whenever something like this happens, the critter invariably ends up drawing a greater ovation than pretty much anything that happens during the game, which makes me think that zoos have it all wrong. The key to making an animal interesting isn't so much presenting the animal itself as it is presenting the animal in a situation in which people don't expect an encounter. I'd find our zoo way less boring if I only saw animals in surprising situations.

54-51, A Few Game Notes

Jeff — Mon, 03 Aug 2009 03:57:35 -0000

More photos » by Tony Gutierrez - AP

Without fail, this is always my favorite kind of picture.

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The outcomes don't really matter much to me anymore. The Mariners are out of it - pretty much 100% out of it - and if anything I'm rooting for the Rangers to pass the Angels in the division. And so with that in mind I don't think it should come off like sour grapes when I say that Texas got a big break there in that final at bat with Jack Wilson. Not only did home plate umpire DJ Reyburn call a strike on a 1-1 fastball six inches inside, but then on 1-2, he ruled that Wilson didn't make contact with a slider in the dirt. Wilson was adamant that he caught the top of the ball and replays showed that the ball changed direction, but Reyburn would have nothing of it, and he called it a game.

On the one hand, yeah, it's only two pitches. There's no guarantee that Wilson gets a hit or reaches base if he gets ahead 2-1 or if that alleged foul is called a foul. But on the other, those were two significant pitches. 2-1 is a hitter's count, while 1-2 is not. And then one pitch later, 1-2 looks a lot better than 0-0 when 0-0 means the game is over and you lose. Wilson's a .280 career hitter against lefties, and all he needed was a single to tie it up. And he didn't get a proper chance, because Reyburn sucked. Cheers to CJ Wilson for throwing a 1-2 slider that apparently fooled everyone, but jeers to DJ Reyburn for being a pile of crap with bad timing.

Jack Hannahan vs. LHP, career: .245/.313/.343
Franklin Gutierrez vs. LHP, career: .295/.350/.492

So why did Hannahan hit against CJ Wilson with Gutierrez available on the bench? Because

"The biggest reason was that Hannahan's hit about .330 over the last seven games and I felt that he'd been having some good at-bats,'' Wakamatsu said. "It gave me the luxury of maybe having (the other bats) for somebody else. But I felt good with Hannahan right there.''
Having the other bats available for somebody else doesn't matter if you can't get to them, and in that situation, with the tying run on second, one out, and a lefty on the mound, you have to go to your bench. To hell with the pinch-hitting penalty. Gutierrez would have a long, long way to fall before he ever looked like as bad a bet there as Jack Hannahan. I don't criticize Don Wakamatsu very often, but that was a bad move. Or non-move, as it were.

In the top of the fourth, Jose Lopez came up with one down and Ichiro on first. He hit a high pop-up behind second, but as the ball was coming down, Omar Vizquel pulled his hands back, let the ball drop, and threw to second to erase Ichiro by a mile. Who even thinks of these things? If Vizquel were some teenager in A-ball that split-second decision would've gotten him promoted. What a heads-up play, the likes of which you wouldn't see from many other infielders in the league.

Betancourt: Why would he do that?
Coach: To get Ichiro off the bases.
Betancourt: But that would've been easy to catch.
Coach: Yes, but because it was so easy to catch, Ichiro had to stay near first, making him an easy target at second.
Betancourt: But he just had to put his glove out there and the ball would've fallen into it for an out.
Coach: But then you have two out and Ichiro on instead of two out and Lopez on.
Betancourt: But why would you ever let a ball like that fall? It was a routine pop.
Coach: Ichiro is a great deal faster than Lopez.
Betancourt: But don't you want there to be two outs?
Coach: By dropping the ball and then throwing to second, you get the second out anyway, with the added bonus of having less speed on the bases.
Betancourt: So you're saying he let it drop on purpose...
Coach: Yes.
Betancourt: ...because he could get an out at second?
Coach: Correct.
Betancourt: Okay.
Coach: Got it?
Betancourt: I think.
Betancourt: But then why wouldn't he just catch the ball?

A mixed bag for Ian Snell, who came out after six innings and 84 pitches having struck out four, walked three, and allowed two solo homers. He topped out at 95 on the night, and the homer by Michael Young was on a high-inside slider off the plate that Young just turned on like a crazy person, but the homer by David Murphy was on a bad pitch, and altogether both Snell's strengths and weaknesses were readily evident.

By my count, he threw 39 fastballs, 21 sliders, and 24 changeups (Update: upon further review, Snell's velocity dropped in the second half of his game, so he threw more fastballs and fewer changes than I noted here). What's interesting is that, while only one of his first 46 pitches was a change, he went to that pitch 23 times over his final 38. Rob Johnson certainly had a plan to show the Rangers something different the second and third times through the order. My reviews of his pitches:

Fastball: Pretty good velocity, can throw it for strikes, but not a real hard pitch to hit
Slider: Good, sharp break with a broad range of velocity. Struggled to throw it for strikes today, but a few of those misses were deliberate. Strikeout pitch
Changeup: Movement's fine but the consistency's not. Wasn't being located. Work in progress

Nothing in there we shouldn't have expected. Snell's change has never been a plus pitch and he's always struggled with lefties, even when he was really good. So the key for him will be limiting the damage done to him by righties, and upon first viewing his slider appears more than capable. He's going to be an interesting one to follow, and with a little better command than he had tonight, he has it in him to be a big value.

An Assortment Of Thoughts

Jeff — Sun, 02 Aug 2009 07:58:26 -0000

Note: if you missed it, check out Matthew's July pitcher report card below.

When the Ms. is gone, I need things to do, and tonight my thing to do is write.

The Mariners are approaching a dicey situation, where Felix Hernandez only has two remaining years of team control after this one and will be in line for a big pay raise in the winter. It's a situation that could've been avoided had the team earlier signed him to an extension, but as much as Bavasi liked to say "it takes two to tango" (implying that he was open to an extension but Felix was not), the blame for this shouldn't fall on Felix's camp. Felix has always been open to signing an extension with the Mariners. Always. And Bavasi approached him and his agent on a handful of occasions. Bavasi, however, lowballed him with offers to buy out his arbitration years and get options for his first few years of free agency. It would be one thing if Felix turned down reasonable contracts, but Bavasi got frustrated because Felix wouldn't sign for pennies on the dollar. Don't get mad at Felix. Every player deserves the right to a fair contract. It's Bavasi's fault our ace never got one.

Mark Lowe through June 25th: 61% strikes, 8% swinging strikes, 1.7 K/BB
Mark Lowe since June 28th: 63% strikes, 12% swinging strikes, 4.0 K/BB

I've said a lot of negative things about Mark Lowe this year, mostly lamenting the fact that his results weren't matching his excellent stuff, but lately he's picked it up a notch and turned himself into a reliable late-inning arm. While he's not getting hitters to chase a lot of balls, and it's only a sample size of 15.2 innings, this is an encouraging bit of progress.

Jose Lopez is up to a .767 OPS with a .277 BABIP. He hits the worst home runs on the team, but homers are homers, and he's starting to look like a little bit of a power hitter. For as down as some people were on Lopez last winter, now I'm seeing him as a bargain. A bargain who could top out at any moment, but a bargain nonetheless.

A few times I've described Jack Hannahan as a hitter whose overall value is less than the sum of his parts. When you watch him hit, he looks really good, and it's only when you see his numbers that you realize how much of a problem he really is. That said, he's at .264/.344/.415 since coming over from Oakland, and if I didn't know any better I'd almost suggest that he's halfway decent. In a way it's almost too bad that Beltre's going to be back so soon, because I feel like, who knows, maybe when a hitter has the fundamentals down like Hannahan seems to, things can just click overnight.

A little while ago I decided to run through what PITCHf/x information we have on Luke French's five big league starts. Here's what I came up with after a little tinkering:

Pitch %Thrown %Strike %SwS

Fastball 60.6 63.0 3.8

Slider 25.6 74.1 28.6

Change 13.7 50.0 8.3

Now, you should know that the sample size on this stuff is pretty small. Only a total of 437 pitches in there. But what we can tell is that French's big money pitch is his slider, and his fastball is pretty bad. We'll see on the change. I'm not comfortable jumping to conclusions based on an n of 60, and given that French posted a 4.2 K/BB against AAA righties earlier this year, I imagine his change is better than these numbers make it look. But who knows.

It's both interesting and encouraging to see French having such good results on his slider early on, because that's the pitch that's made all the difference between the Luke French of before and the Luke French of 2009. French didn't really throw a slider for a while. He only started throwing it in late 2008, and previously his K/9 in the minors had stabilized around the low- to mid-5's. He was even eligible for the Rule 5 Draft this past offseason and didn't get selected. By throwing the slider and becoming comfortable with it, though, French was able to push his K/9 in AAA up to 7.9 before getting promoted. So while his performance this year looks anomalous, there's a reason for it. French picked up a new pitch, and it turned him into a legitimate pitcher.

I'm looking forward to seeing him. My expectations aren't high, and he has a really low ceiling, but I think he can succeed here, and I think he can succeed here for a long time.

I mentioned this in the game thread yesterday, but Jack Wilson has the same problem as me, where the goatee part of his beard is visibly thicker than the rest. It sounds stupid but once you notice it the first time it's all you can see in the mirror. It's annoying. We just want to be even. Now my beard's pretty thick, and I think he's got it a little worse, but it's more than a little disconcerting when you realize that part of your face looks like part of Jack Wilson's.

I'm going to take off my sabermetric hat for a minute and put it down on the desk. Today we saw Chris Shelton get DFA'd to make roster room for Luke French while Mike Sweeney remained on the team. Shelton, of course, is the better hitter of the two. I don't think there's really any question. Sweeney's got a .287 wOBA on the year and he doesn't have much in the way of home run power, while Shelton's come in at .391 in Tacoma with a dozen dingers. When you have a roster spot dedicated to a straight-up right-handed bat, you'd think the right move would be to give that spot to the best option available.

However, as far as this move is concerned, I'm on the team's side, and for three reasons:

(1) In terms of competing for the playoffs, the season is over
(2) Shelton is 29 years old and not a prospect
(3) Sweeney is rather obviously one of, if not the most well-liked player on the team

Because of point #1, it doesn't really matter who's better, because wins now are less important than they would've been two or three months ago. And because of point #2, there's no reason to treat Shelton like some sort of great unknown or valuable youngster with a bright future with the team. He's a known entity and he's not about to get any better.

So we're left with point #3. I know in the past I've come down hard on people who've made a big deal out of clubhouse chemistry, but this is a different and specific situation. Keep Shelton and DFA Sweeney and there's no real benefit. You might score an extra two or three runs over the rest of the year, but that's it, and those runs aren't going to get you much. Maybe a meaningless win. By DFA'ing Sweeney, though, you're left having to explain to the team why you just got rid of everyone's best friend. Sweeney occupies a central role in the Mariner clubhouse. I think that much is pretty clear. And I guarantee you - I guarantee you - that if the team cut Sweeney, the players wouldn't understand. They wouldn't understand, and they'd be upset.

My position on clubhouse chemistry is the same as that of a bunch of other people - given two players, with all other things being equal, you pick the guy who's more likable. Because, while we can't evaluate the effect of chemistry, there's no reason to go against it if you don't have to. Here, there's no reason to go against it. Here, all other things are pretty much equal. Because the tangible production we get out of this particular roster spot no longer means anything. I don't want to see Mike Sweeney in a Mariner uniform in 2010 - and the same goes for Junior - but for these final two months of 2009, I have absolutely no problem with keeping them around. They're going to do more good than harm.

49-44, Very Quick Notes

Jeff — Wed, 22 Jul 2009 06:59:12 -0000

And thus ends Garrett Olson's 2009 stint in the rotation. When you watch him, you don't see much velocity or command or composure or a great breaking ball or a great change. That he used to be one of Baltimore's top pitching prospects seems to say more about Baltimore's old farm system than it does about Olson, because there's nothing in there that would blow a scout away. He's just thoroughly mediocre, without a whole lot of upside. I like having him around as insurance both now and down the road, but he just isn't good, and games like this are why so many people are afraid of dealing starters. Olson'll be okay, but he's pitched himself out of his spot. Welcome back Jason Vargas, and welcome back RRS.

Add "swing" to the list of Jack Hannahan's positive attributes that still don't add up to make much of a hitter. It's the weirdest thing. When you look at his discipline numbers and watch him swing, you'd think he'd be some sort of lefty masher with on base ability, but instead he just sucks. But boy did he look good this afternoon. How does that swing have three homers while Raul Ibanez's swing has 25?

I don't know why anyone ever thought that unpadded outfield walls would be a good idea, and maybe today will help shed some light on the sort of hazard they really pose. Putting players in that kind of danger is unnecessary, and having the kind of range in the outfield that we do these days is only going to make us that much more uneasy.

Franklin Gutierrez was going to make a spectacular catch looks really easy.

Larry Stone on Olson today at Baker's blog:

Olson did not have one swinging strike, by the way.

Atta boy, Larry.

The 1-2 changeup that Rodney threw to Wladimir Balentien in the ninth was pretty much never in the strike zone. Too often fans will criticize a hitter's pitch identification without understanding how hard it really is, but that swing - that swing decision was awful. It's a shame, too, because up until then Wlad had put up a good day at the plate, and now all anyone will remember is how bad he looked with the game on the line.

Ryan Langerhans came so close.

46-42, Game Notes

Jeff — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 03:29:54 -0000

More photos » by John Froschauer - AP

Well this is curious. This ball appears to have had little red threads sewn into it.

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I'll be honest with you - today was supposed to be a happier day. The Mariners were supposed to win the series and come out of it knocking on the door of first place, with the Angels having struggled against a superior Yankees team. It was supposed to be the series that took the M's off the edge of the race and put them right in the middle of it. Instead, LAnaheim somehow swept New York and the M's find themselves still four back of the lead. That's annoying. On the other hand, there's nothing you can do about other people's games and the Mariners still took three of four from a team above them, so we don't need to dwell on the negative. It's just...dammit, Yankees.

After months of denial, I think it's time we just admit it: the 2009 Seattle Mariners play Angel baseball. Classic Angel baseball. The kind of baseball that feels hilarious to root for, and the kind of baseball that feels humiliating to lose to. If I were a Rangers fan, I'd probably be pretty pissed off right now. Think about some of the biggest plays this afternoon:

-Andruw Jones lines into an awkward and fluky outfield double play in the first
-Ichiro leads off the first with a bloop single and later scores the first run
-Ronny Cedeno extends a rally with an infield single to the pitcher
-Ichiro follows with an RBI infield single
-Branyan follows with an RBI walk
-Griffey reaches on a two-out error and later scores on a broken-bat single over short
-Rob Johnson follows Chris Shelton's bloop with another RBI bloop to the same place

The Rangers were patient against Erik Bedard, hit a couple homers, limited the M's to pretty weak contact, and lost. That has to be infuriating. I don't mean to suggest that they deserved to win, mind you - the Mariners got good pitching and some solid at bats and defensive plays when they needed them - but today's five runs rated a Mike's on a scale from wine coolers to lab-grade ethanol.

It's getting to the point where I don't think I'll ever feel as comfortable about Erik Bedard as I did in that first at bat of 2008. I love his talent, and I know that when he's on top of his game he's arguably the best pitcher in baseball, but he just can't seem to settle into a steady groove. He'll look as sharp as ever in one start, but then the next time he takes the hill he'll come out and pitch like this. Bedard wasn't bad today. Let's make that clear. He overcame some early struggles and defensive miscues to throw 5.2 innings of effective, contact-deterring baseball. But while he threw 26 of his final 34 pitches for strikes, the first 59 offerings made him look all kinds of shaky. His control was all over the place (30 strikes, 29 balls) and he just couldn't seem to hit that spot in the inside corner against righties, and he was only able to get off the hook thanks to some good defense and timely swinging strikes.

It's possible that this is the version of Erik Bedard we'll live with until his days as a Mariner are done. And that's by no means a problem. He's plenty good the way he is. But he'll just have these extended stretches where he looks so much better, and they always make me long for more. We know what Bedard can do when he's right. Back in 2007 he punched the league's balls up into its throat. All I want is to see that guy show up a little more often. God knows that's what we paid for.

On a related note, Bedard threw a handful of good changeups today, using one to sit down Ian Kinsler to lead off the game and another to get ahead of Marlon Byrd. I almost forgot he had one. I think so did he.

All series long it felt like the Rangers were working with a game plan of pitching Russell Branyan hard inside. I don't know if that's a good idea, or even if it was true in the first place, but if it was, I imagine it was a reaction to the fact that he's been so good when he's gotten his arms extended. Working him in shortens his swing, which could, I dunno, make him worse. Of note is that he pounded an inside pitch deep into the RF stands last night. I'm not used to seeing him pull the ball like that, but he showed that he's certainly capable.

Whenever Kenji Johjima has to come out to the mound to talk to the pitcher, it's because they're not on the same page. Whenever Rob Johnson has to come out to the mound to talk to the pitcher, as he did on several occasions with Bedard today, it's because he's trying to calm him down. People have really taken this Rob-Johnson-has-mad-intangibles thing and run with it. Which, hey, who knows, he might. It's possible that Johnson really is such a good catcher that he improves the performance of the pitching staff. But given that Kenji's a better hitter, a better thrower, and no worse of a blocker, you better be pretty damn sure about yourself if you want to give Rob more playing time. It would really help his case if he could hit a couple more dingers.

Ken Griffey Jr. is seeing fewer pitches in the zone now than he did in his first couple seasons as a Red. I don't know how often we've heard the broadcasters say "and (Pitcher X) wanted no part of Griffey right there" after a walk. Which should tell you a little something about how much pitchers care about the scouting reports, at least when it comes to facing an icon. Team scouts and analysts could tell the day's starter that Griffey is dead, clinically dead, and the Mariners had to roll him into the batter's box in a wheelbarrow, and he doesn't even have a bat, and the pitcher would still freak out because it's Ken Griffey Jr! and nibble around the edges.

Miguel Batista needed all of nine pitches to allow a home run and record four outs. The outing was like a little bouillon cube of his Mariner career.

Not the greatest day for Jack Hannahan, who got charged with two errors and deserved a third all in the span of eight batters, and went 0-4 at the plate. He also made some nifty stops, so it wasn't a total loss, but if it weren't for Bedard bearing down and escaping some jams, he'd probably be drawing a lot more criticism for his performance. I love how every time a player commits an error he, without fail, will look at his glove. It's like when a player swings and misses and looks at his bat. Guess what: it's not the glove or the bat that's defective. It's you. Maybe what you should be looking at instead is your brain. Which can be troublesome, but there are always MRI machines available, and I'm sure Bedard's got a couple by his locker.

45-42, Game Notes

Jeff — Sun, 12 Jul 2009 09:57:09 -0000

More photos » by Ted S. Warren - AP

Not photoshopped.

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So if last night's game erased the game before, and tonight's game erased yesterday's, then does that mean we have Thursday back? Franklin!!!

Home runs don't come much more unlikely than Rob Johnson's off what I can only imagine was a fatigued Kevin Millwood. I could spend hours trying to explain the magnitude to which I didn't in any way see that coming, but I think Wakamatsu's face did it best. I'm guessing Ranger fans feel about as good about this as we do when the M's let Jeff Mathis tee off. Texas lost for a lot of reasons tonight, but none were more visible than letting Rob Johnson take their ace deep.

Jarrod Washburn has improved this year. That much is measurably true. The issue is that he hasn't actually become particularly good, and people need to stop looking at his ERA and getting carried away. All this business over the past week or two regarding his "Flipper" pitch - look, I'm as excited as anyone that Washburn's getting more confident in his breaking stuff, but this isn't some sort of breakthrough. Take away the cute little name and you're left with Washburn embraces, hones revolutionary new 'curving ball'. What's that? Sometimes it takes hitters by surprise? Messes with their timing? That's what curveballs are supposed to do, and what's more is that this isn't even a new pitch; Washburn's been throwing a slow curve for years. Now, it seems to be better this season, and that's terrific, but let's be reasonable.

You know what the statistical difference is between Jarrod Washburn 2008 and Jarrod Washburn 2009? +1.5% swinging strikes and +1.3% strikes. That's good, and it's really helped his walk and strikeout numbers, but it's not like those things alone punch his ticket to stardom. He's pitching better, and getting lucky, and working in front of a wonderful defense. He is not one of those things. He is all of those things. I will happily admit that I feel more confident going into a game with Jarrod Washburn than with someone like Garrett Olson or RRS, but at the end of the day, that doesn't mean anything.

Ryan Langerhans has played all of nine games in Safeco Field, and already he's become intimately familiar with the walls in left field. In the top of the second he played a carom off the retaining wall behind third base and threw out Marlon Byrd trying for a double, and in the ninth he put himself in perfect position to receive a ball off the top of the fence and almost threw Byrd out again. Side note: after twice getting gunned down on the bases, Byrd must've really, really wanted to make it to second base. I remember one time at school I was waiting outside for a cab in the wind, and it was really cold and annoying, and after about ten minutes of taking a beating I started to yell at it. Then the wind stopped and I was contented and smug. "Fuck you, wind!" "Get fucked, wind!" I imagine that's how Byrd felt about the bag at second once he finally got there safe.

Mark Lowe threw a couple of real good changeups to Josh Hamilton there in the eighth. The change was by far Lowe's best pitch a year ago, but for whatever reason it's gone away in 2009, so it's great to see some signs of his getting it back. He's going to need that pitch if he wants to have a good career.

Aardsma looked as good as ever. Struck out Hank Blalock on a 90mph split and later taught Nelson Cruz a little something about the high fastball. If anyone was concerned about possible lingering after-effects from the Baltimore meltdown, you can stow those away.

Jack Hannahan hit a rope of a double, saw 17 pitches in three plate appearances, and made a couple nifty defensive plays, including picking a short-hop off the bat of Andruw Jones to lead off the ninth. Short-hops always look so simple until you actually have to field one yourself, at which point most people just put the glove somewhere and hope for the best. It's always impressive, then, to watch a big leaguer who knows where the ball is going to go.

Pitch	%Thrown	%Strike	%SwS
Fastball	60.6	63.0	3.8
Slider	25.6	74.1	28.6
Change	13.7	50.0	8.3