SB Nation - Clay Buchholz

John Lackey's Signing: The Potential Ripple Effect

ltrain2 — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 09:38:24 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Is Adrian Gonzalez, pictured here, the next big name acquisition to be announced by the Boston Red Sox following the recent signing of free agent pitcher John Lackey?

Browse more photos »

In what can surely be considered an understatement; the Red Sox's recent off-season activity has the Major League Baseball community buzzing, namely the population that makes up 'Red Sox Nation.'

On Monday, following reports that discussions surrounding re-signing Jason Bay had soured, the Red Sox proceeded to sign the top available starting pitcher via free agency, John Lackey, to a 5-year deal. The arrival of the former Angels' ace in Boston has been dissected in a bevy of ways since news broke earlier today by nearly every media outlet, each offering their own unique opinion on the situation. Some suggest that Lackey represents a reallocation of the funds originally intended for Bay. However, I don't believe that there is enough emphasis being placed on the big picture as a result of the acquisition, and the subsequent sequence of events that may potentially follow.

While some may argue that because Jason Bay is no longer an option, the Red Sox may have simply taken their money and invested in another big ticket free agent instead. If that were the case, wouldn't it have been more intelligent to focus on someone like Matt Holliday or Adrian Beltre to help fill the holes that Boston has both defensively and offensively, rather than acquire a starting pitcher? While there's no denying that the depth in regards to the starting rotation was a point of emphasis for management heading into the off-season, it seems rather narrow-minded to use such a large sum of financial resources to fill that void while continuing to ignore the ones at third base and left field.

Is it possible that Mike Cameron is set to be Jason Bay's replacement, especially given the defensive upgrade he represents, and that they simply used the money that they saved by not going after Matt Holliday on the combination of Cameron and Lackey? Sure, it's not a farfetched theory by any means. However, after much deliberation on the topic, I have come to the conclusion that there may be more to the Red Sox's recent acquisitions than what is evident on the surface.

One piece of information that slipped through the cracks today, which is understandable given the more notable moves made, is that the Red Sox made a two year contract offer reportedly worth $15 million dollars to left-handed Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman. Chapman, a 21 year-old starting pitcher with a fastball that consistently touches triple-digits, could offer a bit of foreshadowing into the Red Sox's plan of action in relation to their void at third base.

The $80-85 million dollar contract awarded to Lackey is what originally made me look into the potential reasoning behind extending $15 million to Chapman who, like Lackey, is a starting pitcher. No, Chapman would not likely be added to the MLB-level rotation come opening day, but there are still some flags being raised by Boston's pursuit of the young talent. Why continue attempting to accrue starting pitching depth with a hole still evident at not only the third base position, but in the lineup as well?

Consider this; the addition of Lackey now gives Boston six viable options for their rotation, as it stands now, heading into 2010. With Beckett, Lester, Lackey, Matsuzaka, Buchholz, and Wakefield, a once seemingly questionable rotation has become more than formidable, arguably the best in baseball. Where does extending a $15 million dollar contract to a young, unproven, prospect-type pitcher make sense given the Red Sox's glaring needs elsewhere?

It would not only make sense, but it would actually appear rather brilliant in its creativeness, if the plan of action was to turn around and begin shopping the attractive young talent that is Clay Buchholz. Buchholz, known for his devastating arsenal of off-speed pitches as well as his limitless potential, seemingly finds himself immersed in nearly every trade discussion involving the Red Sox the last few years. So why stop now?

One reason that Theo Epstein has been reluctant to move Buchholz to this point is that it is difficult to find a young starting pitcher with that much potential without having to develop internally, as they did with Clay. This is where Aroldis Chapman becomes relevant to this discussion.

Matt Holliday had been the center of rumors regarding the Red Sox's planned route in the event that Bay could not be retained. However, recent reports (especially coming from Holliday's agent, Scott Boras) suggest that signing Holliday would require a deal exceeding that in which Jason Bay is commanding at the present time. Boras has been rather vocal in his opinion that Holliday is a more valuable asset than Bay to an interested team. Having said that, and assuming that Adrian Beltre is now out of this off-season's budget limit, it's hard to imagine that the Red Sox are left with many options to plug third base via free agency. It's also safe to assume that management is left unsatisfied with Cameron replacing Bay if it means that someone like Casey Kotchman is going to take over the first base duties, with Youkilis moving to third base in this scenario (also making the assumption that moving Varitek back behind the plate full-time, while shifting Youkilis to third and Victor Martinez to first, is not a realistic option).

All of this leads me to believe that the Red Sox next plan of action is to begin gauging interest from teams regarding the aforementioned Clay Buchholz.

With the potential signing of Aroldis Chapman, moving Clay Buchholz could become more justifiable to the Red Sox. Essentially, the Chapman signing may simply be a case of replacing one young pitching prospect with another, allowing Boston to utilize Buchholz's trade-appeal and acquire the corner infield-bat that they so desperately need.

San Diego could potentially be a player in any discussion pertaining to Buchholz. The Red Sox have discussed the availability of first baseman Adrian Gonzalez with the Padres recently, but to no avail, citing Boston's hesitation to move Buchholz as a main reason. Reports, prior to the Lackey signing, made it appear as though no progress was being made on that front. Padres general manager Jed Hoyer reportedly requested a combination of Buchholz and either Casey Kelly (a pitching prospect widely considered untouchable in such discussions) or outfielder Ryan Westmoreland.

One interesting aspect of negotiations is that Jason McLeod, a former Red Sox scouting director, is now employed by Hoyer. It has been said that both have a detailed understanding and admiration of the Boston system.

While the Red Sox still expected to retain Jason Bay, it was understandable for Epstein to be adverse to the idea of unloading Buchholz, especially given his opinion that the rotation (even with Buchholz) lacked depth. Also, because Bay was still an option at that point, the need for an offensive upgrade was slightly less glaring. With Bay and Holliday now out of the mix, and the potential signings of both Lackey and Chapman, the attention has to be redirected back to the original need for offense at one of the corner infield spots left vacant by Mike Lowell's departure (still pending). A platoon of Mike Cameron and Jeremy Hermida is probably not the caliber of replacement in left field that Boston entered the off-season with in mind, but acquiring someone such as Adrian Gonzalez would have to help alleviate any concerns regarding offensive potency that may still linger.

As I implied earlier, San Diego is very interested in Clay Buchholz, even going as far as insisting his presence in any potential package offered by Boston. If Chapman is signed, Buchholz immediately becomes more expendable, and Gonzalez that much more appealing. Boston's interest in Chapman has been evident for some time, is it possible now that his addition could represent the subtraction of Buchholz? Clay's availability has to increase exponentially in the event that the Red Sox land Chapman.

It is starting to appear as though Theo Epstein has been underestimated in his approach this off-season all along. His lack of activity seems to have directly corresponded with the progress made in re-signing Bay. As soon as the discussions began to break down, Theo started making moves. My feeling is that he has had this plan in his back pocket the whole time he was in talks with Bay and his representatives, and is only now beginning to deploy it.

One fact remains certain, Boston's needs a power-hitter to compliment their lineup following the departure of Jason Bay. With Cameron and Hermida joining J.D. Drew and Jacoby Ellsbury, completing a respectable core of outfielders, the most obvious place to fill that void remains at one of the corner infield spots.

It's hard to imagine a better solution than someone like Adrian Gonzalez.

What Kind of Day Has it Been?

Ben Buchanan — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 04:25:39 -0000

More photos » by Charles Krupa - AP

2 months ago: Boston Red Sox pitching coach John Farrell, left, walks with pitcher Clay Buchholz in the outfield of Fenway Park in Boston, Saturday, Oct. 10, 2009. Buchholz is scheduled to start when the Red Sox host the Los Angeles Angels in Game 3 of the American League division baseball series on Sunday. (AP Photo/Charles Krupa)

Browse more photos »

I woke up today at 4 in the morning. No good reason why other than that I'd uncharacteristically fallen asleep at 8 PM last night, but I had some time to kill before my 11 AM class. It was Monday, which meant it was time for me to get the Minor League update together. I did that on-off for a while, along with other random internet browsing, and eventually got it posted around 9 AM.

Looking around, I found out that the Mike Lowell trade had even more hitches, as his right thumb could require surgery. The status of the trade--and of 3rd base in 2010--seemed murkier than ever before. After signing Marco Scutaro on the 4th, the Red Sox had been remarkably quiet. Half the world seemed to think they were after Bay, the other half that they'd given up and moved on to Holliday, but there was nothing at all concrete. Anyways, I threw it up on the front page and went to class after mucking about for an hour.

At this point, the day had all the makings of a slow news day. Nothing was "in the works" that seemed likely to go down soon. In fact, it seemed like we might go quite a while before seeing any movement on any front.

And then came the storm.

It started when I noticed Randy had posted that John Lackey had taken a physical for the Red Sox. The next two hours were filled with speculation: had Lackey signed? Was this a ruse? A ploy? If he signed, for how much, and was that good?

At 3:30, I was back from class, and Randy had confirmation enough to put it on the front page. John Lackey, the #1 pitching free agent of the 2009-2010 offseason, had signed with the Boston Red Sox. The deal? 5 years, 85 million. The reaction? Mixed.

Knowing that Lackey had signed, though, had done nothing but fuel speculation. The Red Sox had 6 starters (all of whom seem set to start out of Spring Training), a hole at 3rd, and one very marketable young starter in Clay Buchholz. Was this a sign of things to come?

So far, we've seen nothing on that end. But that doesn't mean the Sox stopped there. No, within 2 hours, the Sox were in "serious talks" with center fielder Mike Cameron. 3 hours later, they had reached an agreement for 2 years and 15 million dollars.

In less than 12 hours, the Red Sox had made their mark on the postseason. They had set their outfield for the season, with a significant defensive improvement hopefully balancing out the loss of Jason Bay's bat. Whether Ellsbury will move to left or Cameron will take over there remains to be seen, but either way they've changed their defensive look for the better. More importantly, they bolstered their rotation to the point where it's a strong contender for the best in the MLB. The cherry on the top? Lackey was a potential candidate to fill holes for American League rival Yankees and Angels. The Yankees will now have to try and either make due with Joba and Hughes at #4 and #5--both of whom are significant question marks--and the Angels are in dire trouble with few solutions in sight.

Of course, nothing comes without consequences. The Red Sox are now spending at nearly Yankee levels. They've lost, in effect, a 2nd round pick by signing Lackey. The Blue Jays will now get that pick while the first rounder goes to the Angels. The Sox are still, ironically, without an answer to the question that started the day off, as 3rd base remains conspicuously vacant. Who knows whether the Sox can still afford signing Adrian Beltre? And is our offense good enough without any power bats on the left side of the field? And who on Earth is going to come out of the mess of humanity that is the Red Sox' bullpen? There's plenty still left to do.

Oh, yeah, and Roy Halladay went to the NL while Cliff Lee hits Seattle. The Jays? They got some of the young, cheap talent they needed all along, but it's going to be a long year for them.

So, Red Sox Nation, Over the Monster readers:

What kind of day has it been?

No More Complaining About Payrolls for Red Sox Fans

Ben Buchanan — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 00:28:27 -0000

More photos » by M. Spencer Green - AP

about 1 month ago: Boston Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein talks to reporters during Major League Baseball's 2009 General Managers Meetings, Tuesday, Nov. 10, 2009 in Chicago. (AP Photo/M. Spencer Green)

Browse more photos »

It was always a comfortable, if perhaps not entirely respectable fallback to point at the Yankees' payroll. It was not the most valid of excuses--fans of small market teams would be and were entirely justified at laughing their heads off at the $120 million giant crying about cash. But the Yankees' $200 million was a clear outlier, heads and tails above the #2 team in the league.

Red Sox fans will have to give up that excuse in 2010, though. Sure, barring more signings, the Yankees will still be ahead of the Red Sox by a fair amount. But as it stands now, with the Yankees aiming at a reported $185 million figure and the Red Sox standing around $150 million--give or take a few million based on arbitration guesses--the Yankees are not in a league of their own anymore. While last year only the smallest market teams in the league could claim that the Sox had as much an advantage over them as the Yankees did over the Sox, this year it will likely be well over half the teams in the league.

The $150 million will not all be on the field for the Sox. $9 million comes from Julio Lugo, who was traded to the Cardinals last year on the condition that the Sox pay for him. Mike Lowell, though he's still with the team for now, could also well be in Texas within the week, still costing the Sox $9 million himself. Add in $1.5 million in buyouts, and that's nearly $20 million in bad contract money.

But what impact does this have on the average reader? Well, to start with, it's gonna be tough to expect any more signings this year. Matt Holliday is almost certainly out. Jason Bay will join him. Instead, if the organization is willing to go all out this year, expect at most mid-money, 1-year contracts. Say, Mike Cameron. Given the hole at 3B, and $3 million potentially coming off the books from a Lowell trade, even Adrian Beltre is not impossible. But if anyone was expecting a big push in the outfield department, think again.

Popular thinking has the Red Sox shipping Clay Buchholz and others off to the Padres in a deal for Adrian Gonzalez, and while Adrian Gonzalez has a very team-friendly contract at the moment, that's bound to change within the next few years. I doubt the Sox would be willing to invest not only Clay Buchholz, but also Casey Kelly or Ryan Westmoreland in any deal for Adrian Gonzalez that does not also include an extension. Any extension would cost a great deal of money, even considering discounts given a guaranteed raise over the years remaining on his current contract. Even with a Lowell trade, Gonzalez would likely put the Sox at around $160 million even without a left fielder. The rumor of Mike Cameron would put that number closer to an incredible $170 million.

Also at issue is next year's payroll. Assuming a $170 million dollar payroll this year, the Red Sox will have a number of unpopular contracts coming off their books. But just how much spending money will that result in? First, both "bad contracts" come off the board for $20 million. Then there's David Ortiz' $13 million, Josh Beckett's $12 million, Jason Varitek's $3 million, and Victor Martinez' $7.7 million. After losing all that, the Sox will barely be under the $120 million they spent in 2009. And that's not even factoring in raises! Youkilis gets $3 million more. Daisuke is up $2 million, Lester adds $2 million, and Pedroia $2 million. Let's mercifully assume that the Red Sox' 7 players going to their next year in Arbitration adds only $10-15 million, and we're still left with Ellsbury and Buchholz starting their first arbitration years, and due for probably $8 million between them at least. A conservative estimate puts the Red Sox well over $140 million starting 2010's offseason, and that's without a catcher, DH, and one top-of-the-rotation pitcher. Forget about Joe Mauer, this team might not be willing to sign A.J. Pierzynski.

There are 2 directions the Sox front office could go with. Either this is an all-out gamble for the next few years, with money on the Sox' prospects coming through to fill in holes (Either Exposito, Wagner, or possibly Max Ramirez at catcher, maybe Lars at DH), or the Red Sox' ownership is committing to setting a new bar for payroll. If this isn't just a flash in the pan of spending, then it's official: we're rivaling the Yankees, and it's time to swallow our jeers and, quite frankly, show some shame. I, for one, have been calling for a salary cap and floor for years, and I will not stop doing so now just because we're now spending as much as our greatest enemies. But I will probably talk quieter, and I'll expect even more derision for it.

Either way, though, at least those $5 ticket hikes are going to the right places.

Innumerable thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts for so many numbers in this piece. Fantastic site for anything contract related.

Assorted Quick Monday Morning Bullet Points

Jeff — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 18:48:49 -0000

Ed Price and now Ken Rosenthal are reporting that John Lackey has taken a physical for the Red Sox. Taking a physical doesn't mean that Lackey and Boston have agreed on a contract, but it does strongly imply that they're close, which would mean a handful of things:

-Boston's moving on from Jason Bay
-Lackey would be off the table for us and the Angels
-Clay Buchholz could be available in a trade

Lackey going to Boston wouldn't be the worst thing in the world - even though the Red Sox are one of two teams that could absorb his contract no problem, he's not a great fit here at his expected cost. What this would do, however, is change the shape of the offseason, for both us and our closest rivals. We'd end up with one less high-level option, and the Angels would probably step up their pursuit of Roy Halladay. To be honest, now that Harden's off the board, I have no idea what the front office is planning. He seemed like such a great fit that I gave little attention to devising a Plan B. But with him disappearing and Lackey maybe being next, Zduriencik is going to have to get creative. That's fun, but I'd be lying if I said it isn't also a little scary. Almost as scary as paying John Lackey what he wants.

Update: $85m/5yr for Lackey

There's a rumor flying around that Mike Lowell could need surgery on his trick thumb, which would jeopardize that trade with the Rangers that still hasn't gone through. It seems like kind of a long shot, but given that Lowell going away frees obvious room for Adrian Beltre to become a Red Sox, I'm clinging to far more hope than I ought to. When my first serious girlfriend broke up with me, I spent the next several days reading far too much into any indication that she might change her mind. This is that, because I steadfastly refuse to learn my lesson. Adrian Beltre isn't gone until he's dating someone else, god dammit.

After talking with a few people last week and gaining a great deal of clarity on the matter, I feel very, very comfortable that the M's and Felix Hernandez are going to be able to work something out.

MLB Trade Rumors: Roy Halladay for Prospects Only??

raygu — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 14:00:17 -0000

More photos » by Steve Nesius - AP

4 months ago: Toronto Blue Jays starter Roy Halladay pitches against the Tampa Bay Rays during the first inning of a baseball game Friday, Aug. 14, 2009 in St. Petersburg, Fla. (AP Photo/Steve Nesius)

Browse more photos »

I was all set to go to bed (12:30 am) when I read this from AOL Fanhouse's Ed Price:

#BlueJays prefer minor-league prospects for Roy Halladay, rather than big-league players

Wow! That may bring several teams not considered favorites into the mix for Roy Halladay. Here's a breakdown of some of the top prospects on the teams who have been rumored to have interest in dealing for Halladay:

Rays-Desmond Jennings, Wade Davis and Jeremy Hellickson

Dodgers-Dee Gordon, Chris Withrow and Josh Lindblom

Phillies-Domonic Brown, Kyle Drabek and Michael Taylor

Yankees-Jesus Montero, Austin Romine and Dellin Betances

Red Sox-Clay Buchholz, Casey Kelly and Ryan Westmoreland

Angels-Mike Trout, Jordan Walden and Hank Conger

Now we are not sure how many prospects it will take to get Halladay, but this is a list that I am sure Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopolous has seen and discussed over the past 3 days.

We could see some movement with Halladay if all AA wants is a package of prospects. Stay tuned.

Poll

Which team listed will come up with the best package of prospects in a deal for Roy Halladay?

New York Yankee notes: Now, about Roy Halladay

Ed Valentine — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 15:00:42 -0000

So, the big question floating around following the New York Yankees acquisition of Curtis Granderson is what impact that has on trade talks for Toronto ace Roy Halladay.

If you are pro Halladay to the Yankees you have to be excited about the fact that GM Brian Cashman still has Joba Chamberlain or Phil Hughes as trade chips. If you are anti-Halladay to the Yankees you are praying that Cashman's willingness to deal Austin Jackson doesn't mean he might also part with Jesus Montero.

Bob Klapisch figures the Granderson deal makes it less likely the Yankees will be able to land Halladay.

One American League source says it's now "unlikely" the Bombers have the prospects to convince the Blue Jays to deal their ace. Having shipped Austin Jackson to the Tigers, the Yankees intend to hang on to Jesus Montero, their up-and-coming catcher. That effectively narrows the field for Halladay to the Red Sox and Angels.

Cashman knows he's taking a risk, giving Boston a free shot at a confirmed Yankee-killer. Theo Epstein is loathe to trade prospects, and has said he wants to hang on to righty Clay Buchholz. But after seeing the Yankees fortify themselves yet again, the Sox GM may have no choice but to pick up the phone and call the Jays.

John Harper of the New York Daily News figures the Granderson deal might force the Boston Red Sox to answer the Yankees by making a big push for Halladay

Early indications Tuesday were that Sox GM Theo Epstein remained reluctant to give up a package of top prospects to the Blue Jays, as well as the $100-plus million it will take to sign Halladay to a contract extension - no matter if Red Sox Nation was screaming for him to return fire on the Yankees.

But that hardly adds up to a no.

"Theo doesn't care what the fans want," was the way one major league executive put it. "He's not going to react just because the Yankees made a deal. But (owner) John Henry might be a different story.

"After everything their organization has done to turn the tables on the Yankees the last several years, (Henry) is very concerned about any perception the Sox have fallen behind them again. And he knows Halladay is the ultimate protection, whether you're talking perception or reality."

Even before the Granderson deal, where Halladay ends up was the most intrguing story of the winter. It still is.

Other notes

In case you missed it, the Brian Bruney trade landed the Yankees the first pick in Thursday's Rule 5 Draft.
Could Hideki Matsui end up in Oakland?
Yanks might watch Aroldis Chapman work out.

Winter Meetings, Day Two Recap: A Slow Day For Red Sox

Randy Booth — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 11:00:28 -0000

by Steven Senne - AP

This photo is no way related to the winter meetings ... except it's Theo. That's the only relation. So it works.

View full size photo »

Remarkably, day two was even slower than day one.

Just get Theo's take on it:

"Yesterday was probably more productive than today," Epstein said. "Today has been more of a day of follow-up on the ideas of yesterday and we haven't made a heck of a lot of progress. We're still working at it."

After the jump, I'll update you on some of the happenings.

ALL THE RUMBLIN' ('CAUSE THERE JUST WASN'T MUCH PERIOD)

Full Count " Red Sox claim the ‘other’ Ramon Ramirez

Another pitcher named Ramon Ramirez (potentially) in the Red Sox system. How fun!

Tigers wanted Ellsbury or Buchholz

If the Sox were to acquire Curtis Granderson, it would have taken Jacoby Ellsbury or Clay Buchholz. And we can all say "no thank you" at the same time.

Jason Bay Rumors: Tuesday: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

Your guess is as good as anyone's when it comes to where Jason Bay will land before 2010. The Mariners seem to have no interest in the slugger while the Angels consider themselves "longshots." The Red Sox, still, no matter how hard some people on this blog try, are in talks with Bay.

Texas Rangers Blog - A quick wrapup from Tuesday - ESPN Dallas

The Rangers have shown interest in acquiring Mike Lowell. Really? I didn't think they wanted another poor defensive third baseman. One tends to be enough. However, it all seems like a longshot.

Boston Herald's Silverman on Sox's interest in Soriano

In other trade news, Rafael Soriano, after accepting arbitration, is willing to be traded. However, it doesn't seem the Sox are interested in trading for Soriano. If he was a free agent, that would have been a different story.

Washington Nationals Sign Pudge Rodriguez. - Federal Baseball

Somehow, Pudge Rodriguez is still going. Good for him. Maybe he'll be the first pro catcher to call a sign for Stephen Strasburg.

Winter Meetings: Pirates set to sign Crosby

The were rumors that Bobby Crosby could be a Red Sox, but that was before the Marco Scutaro signing. I wish I could say "Good for the Pirates," but I think it's more fitting to say "Good for Crosby" who is still seeing time in Major League Baseball. Keep collecting that paycheck, Bob!

MLB Trade Rumors: Winter Meetings Coverage Begins Monday

raygu — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 14:00:17 -0000

by Aaron J. Latham - AP

2 months ago: San Diego Padres' David Eckstein, left, celebrates with teammate Adrian Gonzalez, right, after they scored on Gonzalez's home run in the fourth inning of a baseball game against the Arizona Diamondbacks Sunday, Sept. 27, 2009 in Phoenix. (AP Photo/Aaron J. Latham)

View full size photo »

We at Fake Teams will be covering the trades and signings that occur at the Winter Meetings that start today in Indianapolis. We will address the fantasy impact of the trades and signings that occur this week and throughout the offseason. The biggest name discussed at the Winter Meetings will be the Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay.

Some of the rumored deals could involve the following players changing uniforms:

Steve Henson from Yahoo Sports tweeted the following last night:

The Dodgers have 3-4 teams interested in $$ Juan Pierre and a 3-team deal is being explored to get L.A. a bad-contract starter in return.
The "bad contract" starter the Dodgers might get for Juan Pierre would not be Derek Lowe, a source said. That bridge has burned.

It appears the Yankees and Red Sox are the favorites for Roy Halladay. Halladay to the Yankees for a package of Jesus Montero and Phil Hughes? Halladay to the Red Sox for Clay Buchholz and Josh Reddick? Halladay to the Phils for J.A. Happ and Michael Taylor? The Giants may make sense for Dan Uggla, but where would he play with Freddy Sanchez at second? I'd be shocked if Adrian Gonzalez isn't dealt to the Red Sox now that former Sox Jed Hoyer is the new GM in San Diego. Josh Willingham in Atlanta makes sense.

Would the rumored Milton Bradley-Pat Burrell deal result in one of the worst outfields in the majors? How can Pat Burrell and Alfonso Soriano play in the same outfield? Pierre makes sense in St. Louis, Chicago and Cincinnati, especially with Dusty Baker managing the Reds. Pierre for Arroyo??

Poll

Who is more likely to get traded during the Winter Meetings this week?

Braves Sign Billy Wagner, Sox Nab 20th Pick

Ben Buchanan — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 09:08:50 -0000

More photos » by Chris O'Meara - AP

3 months ago: Boston Red Sox pitcher Billy Wagner delivers to Tampa Bay Rays' Carl Crawford during the seventh inning of a baseball game Tuesday, Sept. 1, 2009, in St. Petersburg, Fla. Wagner struck Crawford out. (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)

Browse more photos »

Ken Rosenthal is reporting that Billy Wagner has reached a preliminary agreement to sign with the Braves.

For Sox fans, this is the end of a fairly lengthy drama involving Elias rankings, arbitration, and draft picks. At first it looked like the Sox would have to agree to forgo arbitration and give up the draft picks to finalize the Wagner trade. Then it looked like Wagner might accept arbitration if it was offered.

Things seem to have worked out well for Boston now, though, as Wagner's signing would secure the Sox the Braves' first round pick (number 20) and a supplementary pick between the first 2 rounds. The first rounder is not a sure thing, as the Sox would have to settle for a second rounder if the Braves signed a higher ranked free agent, but they have yet to be linked to any other, bigger names. Essentially, the Sox bought a few late-season innings of Wagner, and turned Chris Carter and Eddie Lora--two prospects entirely unlikely to contribute to the Sox--into first round picks. Not a bad deal.

The Red Sox have acquired quite a bit of talent thanks to compensatory picks over the last 5 years, including Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Buchholz, Daniel Bard, Jed Lowrie, Michael Bowden, and Nick Hagadone.

Wednesday Bantering: Today's Roy Halladay Rumor, John McDonald and Buck Coats

Tom Dakers — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 16:21:49 -0000

So today's Roy Halladay rumor? According to the New York Daily News the Red Sox are going to 'make a big push' to get Doc before the start of the winter meetings Dec. 7th. The reasoning, apparently, is that the Yankees are meeting next week to decide on things like budget for the next season, so the Red Sox figure they would like try to get something done before the Yankees get organized.

The Red Sox offer will apparently center around Clay Buchholz and Casey Kelly. Kelly was the Red Sox first round pick in 2008 and is an interesting story, Tennessee wanted him to play quarterback for the Volunteers. Kelly would only sign with the Sox if they would let him play both pitcher and shortstop. So he played both positions in A-Ball last year. His minor league numbers are here. As a pitcher he is a terrific prospect, as a shortstop he has some work to do but looks like he has some power potential. He's 20 now I'd expect him to move towards being a full time pitcher and make the majors in a year or two, but I can understand why he'd be reluctant to giving up on shortstop, starting pitchers sit around for 4 of every 5 days.

Jordan Bastian says that the John McDonald signing will be announced today. I really don't understand this one. The line we often hear about free agents is that to sign one you have to offer a dollar more than the next highest offer. Do you really believe someone else offered him $1.4 million? Of course not. Instead of a home team discount, we are giving him more than what he could get other places?

To put it another way, this summer the Jays failed to sign their number 2 draft choice, a pitcher that looked to have a bright future, because of a reported $200,000 difference in between what he wanted and what the Jays offered. And then you go and give Mac $1.5 million.

Yeah I know, Mac is a good guy and is very likable in the clubhouse. Which was the excuse that bought us a season's worth of Kevin Millar. You would have thought there was a lesson there somewhere.

Jordan also lets us know that the Royals have signed Buck Coats to a minor league contract. Good move by the Royals, I hope things work out for him there.