SB Nation - Edwin Encarnacion

The Greatest Reds: #8

riverfront76 — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 17:00:16 -0000

8. Heinie Groh

Played as Red	Primary Position	Career Rank	Peak Rank	Prime Rank
1913-1921	3B, 2B	10	6	5
Percent Breakdown of Value			Best Season	Best player on Reds
Hit	Field	Pitch	1917	1915, 1916, 1917, 1918
77%	23%	0%	1917	1915, 1916, 1917, 1918
Awards/Honors as a Red	Leading the League		On the Reds Leaderboard
N/A	Hit By Pitch – 1914 Walks – 1916 On Base Percentage – 1917, 1918 Doubles – 1917, 1918 Hits – 1917 Plate Appearances – 1917 Runs Scored – 1918 OPS – 1919		-11th in career OPS+ -12th in career triples -13th in career hits -15th in career doubles -17th in career runs scored

via cdn.bleacherreport.com

Early in the 1913 season, the Reds traded Art Fromme—a veteran pitcher who had about 250 innings left in his arm—for a package of three players and cash. The highlight of the deal for the Reds was almost certainly pitcher Red Ames, who was in his early 30’s and had already strung together many very good seasons. In the end, however, Ames was an afterthought and the 23 year old second baseman with the funny name became the lasting value. Groh played a season or two as a second sacker, and then made the permanent switch across the diamond to third base, where he became the league’s preeminent defender. Groh led the league’s 3rd basemen in fielding percentage five times—often besting league averages by 20-30 percentage points, in double plays six times, and in putouts three times.

The leadoff-hitting Groh was no slouch at the plate, either. As the Reds ramped up towards their eventual World Champion team in 1919, Groh made a strong case as the best leadoff hitter in the National League, typically flirting with a .400 on-base percentage during his prime, and adding a strong number of doubles (peaking at 39 in 1917). Despite weighing less than 160 pounds, Groh was famous for using a heavy "bottle bat", which had a thin handle and a very thick barrel, and was known for his masterful bunting skills. In 1919, his third straight season with OPS+ marks over 140, Groh led the league in OPS with a 310/392/431 line, and confidently led his team into the Series. Ironically, given the efforts by the Black Sox to lose and Groh’s place as the best hitter in the league, he struggled during the series, hitting just .172 with only two doubles in 29 at-bats.

Prior to the 1921 season, a long contract dispute ended with Groh accepting a less-than-desired salary, on the condition that he be traded immediately to the Giants. Commissioner Landis nixed the deal, saying Groh had to play out the ’21 season in Cincy, but after the year was over, he was finally traded for a couple of players and $150K in cash. Cumulatively, Groh’s nine seasons in Cincy were rather remarkable: a total OPS+ of 130, and only one season under 120.

The Top 15 Third Basemen in Reds history

1          Heinie Groh
2          Arlie Latham
3          Grady Hatton
4          Chris Sabo
5          Hans Lobert
6          Harry Steinfeldt
7          Bobby Adams
8          Billy Werber
9          Aaron Boone
10        Chuck Dressen
11        Charlie Irwin
12        Babe Pinelli
13        Lew Riggs
14        Edwin Encarnacion
15        Ray Knight

Sabermetric Review of the 2009 Reds, Part 2: Offense

JinAZ — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 20:00:14 -0000

A late season surge helped prevent a historically bad offense, but nonetheless, relative to average, the Reds fell off 26 runs in 2009 to 71 runs below average (after park adjustments). It was the worst Reds offense since the 1997 team (95 runs below average). On a team level, where did this offensive dropoff come from? Let's go position-by-position:

Notes: Batting runs are the "Batting" stat from fangraphs, which are park-adjusted for us, and include all players at each position on the '08 and '09 Reds teams. Players playing multiple positions had their offenses pro-rated based on innings played at each position.

The Reds had a nice uptick at 1B and 2B thanks to improved offensive seasons by both Votto and Phillips. But there were major dropoffs in offense at 3B, SS, and LF. 3B was largely due to the massive underperformance of (and injury to) Encarnacion and subsequent powerless debut by Scott Rolen. At SS and LF, the story is a bit more nuanced. The Reds had guys who were essentially playing out of position at those positions in 2008 (Dunn, Hairston, Keppinger), but in 2009 were replaced by guys who didn't hit as well but contributed significantly better fielding (Janish, Dickerson, etc). Also, given how much time Paul Bako got in 2008, I was surprised to not see better offense from our catchers. But then I looked again at the 2009 catchers' hitting stats and it all made sense again. More on the individual players below.

For the individual player stats, there are a few flourishes that distinguishes what follows from what you'll find at Fangraphs, for example (which is my primary data source). First, everything's park adjusted. This is a big deal for Cincinnati, which is a moderate hitter's park (5 year regressed park factor has climbed to 1.04!). Second, the last three columns include not only the hitting information, but also full baserunning info from BPro. This includes not only stolen bases, but also things like advancing 1st to 3rd on a single.

Here are all individual Reds player performances for 2009. The table is sortable if you click in the header. I've italicized pitchers to make it easier to ignore them if you wish to do so.

Name	PA	BB%	K%	GB%	LD%	FB%	EqBRR	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	wOBA*	wRAA*	wRAR*
Joey Votto	544	13%	23%	39%	22%	39%	-0.3	0.372	0.322	0.414	0.567	0.245	0.411	38.3	52.7
Brandon Phillips	644	7%	13%	50%	17%	33%	3.0	0.284	0.276	0.329	0.447	0.171	0.339	5.3	22.3
Jonny Gomes	314	9%	30%	34%	20%	46%	-0.1	0.309	0.267	0.338	0.541	0.274	0.367	10.1	18.4
Jay Bruce	387	10%	22%	39%	13%	49%	0.0	0.221	0.223	0.303	0.470	0.247	0.324	-2.1	8.1
Chris Dickerson	299	13%	26%	50%	22%	29%	-1.9	0.360	0.275	0.370	0.373	0.098	0.325	-1.2	6.7
Laynce Nix	337	7%	26%	38%	20%	43%	1.1	0.272	0.239	0.291	0.476	0.237	0.321	-2.7	6.2
Wladimir Balentien	125	12%	25%	47%	18%	35%	0.5	0.325	0.264	0.352	0.427	0.163	0.345	1.6	4.9
Drew Stubbs	196	8%	27%	42%	21%	37%	-1.3	0.325	0.267	0.323	0.439	0.172	0.328	-0.4	4.8
Juan Francisco	25	13%	33%	57%	29%	14%	0.3	0.615	0.429	0.520	0.619	0.190	0.503	3.8	4.4
Scott Rolen	162	12%	15%	46%	16%	38%	-1.5	0.291	0.270	0.364	0.401	0.131	0.325	-0.7	3.6
Micah Owings	58	2%	35%	43%	17%	40%	-0.1	0.333	0.259	0.281	0.537	0.278	0.333	0.2	1.7
Darnell McDonald	111	5%	30%	47%	18%	35%	0.7	0.361	0.267	0.306	0.400	0.133	0.312	-1.8	1.2
Jerry Hairston	340	6%	15%	34%	24%	42%	-0.5	0.273	0.254	0.305	0.397	0.143	0.303	-8.1	0.9
Kevin Barker	36	9%	28%	54%	25%	21%	-0.1	0.375	0.281	0.333	0.375	0.094	0.292	-1.2	-0.2
Daniel Herrera	4	33%	50%	100%	0%	0%	0.0	0.000	0.000	0.333	0.000	0.000	0.229	-0.4	-0.2
Arthur Rhodes	1	0%	100%	0%	0%	0%	0.0	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	-0.006	-0.3	-0.3
Jared Burton	1	0%	100%	0%	0%	0%	0.0	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	-0.006	-0.3	-0.3
Nick Masset	1	0%	100%	0%	0%	0%	0.0	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	-0.006	-0.3	-0.3
Ramon Ramirez	1	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	-0.006	-0.3	-0.3
Carlos Fisher	1	0%	100%	0%	0%	0%	0.0	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	-0.006	-0.3	-0.3
Ryan Hanigan	293	13%	12%	48%	24%	27%	-1.4	0.289	0.263	0.361	0.331	0.068	0.298	-8.2	-0.5
Matt Maloney	15	8%	42%	86%	14%	0%	0.1	0.429	0.250	0.308	0.250	0.000	0.262	-0.9	-0.5
Mike Lincoln	2	0%	100%	0%	0%	0%	0.0	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	-0.006	-0.6	-0.5
Edwin Encarnacion	165	15%	27%	41%	14%	46%	-2.8	0.250	0.209	0.333	0.374	0.165	0.295	-5.1	-0.7
Drew Sutton	76	10%	30%	37%	19%	44%	-0.6	0.289	0.212	0.297	0.348	0.136	0.280	-3.3	-1.3
Ramon Hernandez	331	10%	12%	49%	19%	32%	-3.1	0.274	0.258	0.336	0.362	0.104	0.295	-10.1	-1.3
Danny Richar	9	11%	13%	57%	14%	29%	-1.3	0.286	0.250	0.333	0.250	0.000	0.105	-1.8	-1.5
Kip Wells	16	0%	36%	67%	33%	0%	0.2	0.143	0.091	0.091	0.091	0.000	0.090	-3.3	-2.9
Corky Miller	69	14%	25%	28%	21%	51%	-0.5	0.214	0.179	0.299	0.250	0.071	0.247	-5.0	-3.2
Edinson Volquez	19	0%	50%	75%	13%	13%	0.0	0.125	0.063	0.063	0.063	0.000	0.050	-4.6	-4.1
Adam Rosales	266	10%	20%	45%	16%	40%	0.3	0.246	0.213	0.303	0.317	0.104	0.278	-12.0	-5.0
Justin Lehr	28	4%	36%	77%	8%	15%	-0.7	0.143	0.091	0.130	0.136	0.045	0.090	-5.9	-5.1
Craig Tatum	77	9%	15%	45%	12%	43%	0.1	0.175	0.162	0.250	0.221	0.059	0.213	-7.8	-5.8
Paul Janish	292	9%	16%	37%	19%	44%	0.7	0.247	0.211	0.296	0.305	0.094	0.271	-14.9	-7.2
Aaron Harang	54	2%	26%	74%	9%	18%	-1.4	0.176	0.149	0.167	0.234	0.085	0.141	-8.9	-7.5
Johnny Cueto	59	6%	37%	74%	4%	22%	0.2	0.207	0.130	0.184	0.130	0.000	0.151	-9.2	-7.6
Homer Bailey	43	0%	45%	75%	10%	15%	-0.1	0.143	0.079	0.079	0.079	0.000	0.062	-10.0	-8.9
Bronson Arroyo	76	0%	44%	35%	21%	45%	-0.3	0.200	0.113	0.113	0.161	0.048	0.108	-14.7	-12.7
Willy Taveras	437	4%	14%	47%	17%	36%	3.6	0.277	0.240	0.275	0.285	0.045	0.259	-26.9	-15.4
Alex Gonzalez	270	6%	15%	36%	18%	46%	-1.4	0.231	0.210	0.258	0.296	0.086	0.229	-23.7	-16.6

Table notes: Most stats were pulled or calculated from those at FanGraphs. Most should be self-explanatory. EqBRR is Dan Fox's baserunning stat from Baseball Prospectus. wOBA* is an all-encompassing offensive stat read on the same scale as OBP. It is based on wOBA listed at fangraphs, but then park adjusted and further adjusted to include EqBRR baserunning information. wRAA* is runs above average, based on wOBA*, and so is park adjusted and includes EqBRR. wRAR* is based on wRAA*, plus a 2.0 wins/700 PA modifier (the difference between an average hitter and a replacement hitter). wRAR* does not consider position--that includes pitchers! We will apply position adjustments when calculating win values in a subsequent post.

Joey Votto is the clear winner of the best offensive player award, despite missed time due to illness. The guy just had an incredible season. His 0.372 BABIP is a source of concern, however--that's almost certainly the result of some good luck, which will (at least) pull down his on-base stats. But he doesn't have to have an 0.372 to be a fine hitter. I'll happily take his CHONE projection in 2010 and every year thereafter...though, maybe with a few more PA's.

The often maligned (at least in the blogosphere) Brandon Phillips comes in as the second most valuable hitter, at least relative to replacement level. Yes, he's a free swinger, and yes, he's misplaced hitting 4th on a team. But he's proven to be an extremely durable, consistent hitter with good power and the ability to add to value with his baserunning game. He, along with Taveras, contributed the most on the basepaths this year (+3 runs overall).

Jonny Gomes comes in third, and I'm sure this is why so many are enthusiastic about re-signing him (despite his fielding problems). His 0.274 ISO was the highest of any hitter on the team, and second only to the incomparable Micah Owings.

But from here, we just drop off a cliff. I find it flat-out shocking that only three hitters crossed the 10 RAR plateau on this Reds team. In 2008, we had seven players top that plateau, with Jay Bruce essentially #8. There just wasn't much good hitting talent--or at least good hitting performance--on the team this year. In contrast, we had five hitters at least 5 runs below replacement level (Rosales, Tatum, Janish, Taveras, and Gonzalez; this is offense only). Now, some of that was made up for with glovework. But even so, this is a miserable offense. All I can say is thank goodness for Joey Votto. Can you imagine what this team would have been like without him?

A few other hitters of interest. I've read a lot of optimisim about Jay Bruce, with many pointing to his 0.221 BABIP as something that won't happen next season. I hope they're right, and I was glad to see the power there from him, but I worry about his line drive %. Those things can fluctuate, and Bruce is young and tremendously talented. But a bust-out season next year isn't guaranteed from where I sit......Micah Owings lived up to his reputation and had a terrific year at the plate for a pitcher, often serving as our top right-handed pinch hitter. And keep in mind the pinch hitting is measurably more difficult that hitting when you're already in the game, so Owings is probably better than he showed. He didn't walk much, and I wonder if that eventually will catch up to him as pitchers learn to exploit his weaknesses.....Drew Stubbs showed surprising power in his September call-up, but his on-base skills weren't as evident, walking only 8% of the time. There was some talk that he'd modified his swing upon arriving in the big leagues, but I haven't seen confirmation of that and I'm skeptical. Honestly, I think he just got lucky. I have very little idea of what he'll hit next season.....Juan "El Nino Destructor" Francisco hit the crap out of the ball in his 25 PA's, even walking at a nice clip. But 0.615 BABIPs tend to decline, and I have almost zero confidence that he's actually big league ready.....Lowest walk rate by anyone on the team with more than 100 PA's? Our leadoff hitter, Willy Taveras. I kind of miss Norris Hopper.....How bad was Ramon Hernandez? And manning 1B when Votto was out, no less! I argued last spring that a combination of Hernandez and Hanigan would be a massive upgrade on last year's catching. As the graph at the top of the page shows, however, it wasn't. Not that Tatum or Miller helped much on that front.

Next time (probably after the holidays): Fielding, and combining fielding value with offensive value to get position player win values!

The Season That Was: Edwin Encarnacion

Tom Dakers — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 14:00:14 -0000

More photos » by Reinhold Matay - AP

Looks good fielding this ball. (AP Photo/Reinhold Matay)

Browse more photos »

Edwin had a good season in 2008, hitting .251/.340/.466 with 26 home runs in 506 at bats for Cincinnati. It was pretty much in line with the two seasons he had before. 2009 should have been a good year since he was just 26. But he had a sore wrist starting in spring training. At the end of April he was hitting just .127 and they found he chipped bone in his wrist. He missed all of May.

At the trade deadline Scott Rolen wanted to be traded closer to home. The Jays got pitching prospects Zack Stewart and Josh Roenicke and well as Edwin for him, not a bad deal for one that we were forced to make. For the Reds Edwin hit

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Edwin Encarnacion	43	139	10	29	6	1	5	16	24	38	1	1	.209	.333	.374

For us he hit

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Edwin Encarnacion	42	154	25	37	5	1	8	23	13	29	1	0	.240	.306	.442

So it was not a good season, he had to get hot at the end of the season to bring his WAR value back to 0.

Encarnacion hit lefties (.250/.348/.467) far better than righties (.219/.312/.395).

He hit much better in Cincinnati, at the Great American Ballpark (.254/.390/.429) than he did at Rogers Center (.227/.294/.373) or on the road (.213/.301/.419).

By month Edwin hit:

April .127/.286/.190

July .276/.375/.526

August .186/.206/.271

Sept/Oct .274/.364/.547

He had a terrible April, got his wrist fixed, then was great in July, got traded to the Jays and was terrible in August then was terrific again in September. I had been working on the theory that his wrist had been sore until September but it looks like he was fine in July and then couldn't hit after he got traded. Then after a month he got it together again. So what does this mean for next year? I don't know.

His longest hitting streak was 6 games, once in July with the Reds and once in September with us.

His favorite team to play was the Phillies (.417/.462/.833). Least favorite was Atlanta (.091/.167/.091) but the was in just 3 games.

Defensively he wasn't good. He had a -18.4 UZR/150. He also had 11 errors for a .947 fielding percentage at third base. I thought, watching, that his defense improved the longer he was with the Jays. It seemed to me that his footwork was all messed up when he got to Toronto. I'm hoping that working with Brian Butterfield has and will continue to make his defense better. He does have a strong arm. Getting his feet to work right so that the 'strong arm' can hit a target would help make him a reasonable third baseman.

All-in-all I'm very curious to see what he does with the team next year. I keep reading about the team being interested in finding someone else to play third but I think the team has far more pressing problems. I'd rather the team find a shortstop, catcher and right fielder before replacing Edwin. Let's give him a shot, he could give us 25 homers and play a decent 3B. If he doesn't.....well Anthopoulos has told us we aren't winning this year anyway, if he shows he's not up to the task then we can find someone else for 2011.

Free Agent Profile: Miguel Tejada

davoag — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 13:00:13 -0000

by Alex Brandon - AP

The market for Tejada will be tough to ascertain.

View full size photo »

Lots to talk about since the last time we looked at the free agency market. In this profile of what kind of deal Miguel Tejada may get, I thought it prudent to look at two important facts. First, how much will the Astros have available to spend?

If, as Wade said, the Astros will reduce payroll in 2010, that means their number will be lower than the 102 million they spent on Opening Day 2009. How much less is up for debate. After arbitration raises to Hunter Pence, Wandy Rodriguez and others, the Astros will have about 80 million committed already in 2010. Assuming the Astros lop 12 million off last year's number, that leaves them with 10 million to spend. Seems about right, doesn't it?

It's still what we've been projecting as their available room since the offseason began, before Wade confirmed it was the case. We'll get to my theory on how much Tejada will cost, but that's not a lot of money to spend to fill a couple of glaring holes.

The second thing to look at is the current market for third baseman. It may not be a foregone conclusion that Tejada will have to switch positions, his bat seems to fit more in line with the corner of the infield market. Of that list, Tejada is probably not going to get the richest deal and possibly not the third-richest deal. I still think he commands a good chunk of change, though. The question is, does it make more sense for the Astros to spend on Tejada or a guy like Pedro Feliz? Just some things to think about when looking at last winter...

The Shortstops

Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles Dodgers

Contract Details: 3 years, 30 million (09-6.5m, 10-8.5m, 11-12m, 12-12m option)

Notes: Furcal entered last year's market after totaling just 164 plate appearances. Still, the then-31-year old posted a wOBA of .440 and a UZR/150 of -15.2. The Dodgers still rewarded Furcal with the richest contract any shortstop earned last winter. Furcal's defense has been all over the boards the past couple of years, but I think it's safe to say conventional wisdom shows he's was better defensively heading into last offseason than Tejada is now. Consider this contract the upper boundary of what Tejada can expect.

Nick Punto, Minnesota Twins

Contract Details: 2 years, 8.5 million (09-4.25m, 10-4.25m, 11-5m option)

Notes: The 30-year old got this contract coming off a season where he played 99 games. Punto hit pretty decently when he did play, posting a wOBA of .324 and had a UZR/150 of 17.9. Punto is a much better fielder than Tejada, but can't hit nearly as well. He's also younger, but couldn't get more than a two-year deal in last year's market.

Orlando Cabrera, Oakland A's

Contract Details: 1 year, 4 million

Notes: Cabrera couldn't have illustrated the plight of Type A free agents any better. With no team willing to give up draft picks for a 34-year old shortstop coming off a season where he posted a wOBA of .316 with excellent defense (by all accounts). Obviously, Cabrera falls into the same situation as Punto. Both players were good defense, bad bat types, which makes them the exact opposite of Tejada. Still, it may be hard for Tejada to get more than a one-year deal this winter.

Cesar Izturis, Baltimore Orioles

Contract Details: 2 years, 5 million (09-2.4m, 10-2.6m)

Notes: Another good defensive shortstop that posted a sub-par wOBA heading into his free agency period. Izturis got a multi-year deal and performed admirably for Baltimore. His contract is lower than the deals that Punto and Cabrera ended up with, but not for a lack of offense. In fact, the only difference tangibly between these three players is that the other two had a better defensive reputation and Izturis had a down year offensively with the Cardinals in 2008. Of course, I say 'reputation' about defense since there is not much difference in the three's defensive stats.

Edgar Renteria, San Francisco Giants

Contract Details: 2 years, 18.5 million (09-7m, 10-9.5m, 11-10.5m option)

Notes: While Renteria's defense wasn't as bad as Tejada's, at least by UZR, Renteria also didn't post as good a wOBA as Tejada's. It fits that Renteria would be the best shortstop comparable for Tejada, though by all accounts, his defense is good enough to stay at short for a little while longer. This deal, though, feels like something Tejada could end up with this winter.

The Third Basemen

Casey Blake, Los Angeles Dodgers

Contract Details: 3 years, 17.5 million (09-5m, 10-6m, 11-5.25m, 12-6m option)

Notes: Now we move into the third basemen that hit the market last winter. Blake had a great run with the Dodgers after being traded to Los Angeles and was locked up to a reasonable deal. Blake more than outperformed his contract in 2009, but his deal was the richest given to a potential third base free agent last winter. If Tejada moves to the hot corner, look for his deal to be in this range.

Ty Wigginton, Baltimore Orioles

Contract Details: 2 years, 6 million (09-2.5m, 10-3.5m)

Notes: Ahh, the dearly departed Astro, Wigginton signed with Baltimore for two years at a very reasonable 6 million. Wigginton probably was over-extended as a third baseman and only played 39 games there in 2009. Wigginton was close to as valuable offensively as Tejada but wasn't good defensively at third. Tejada's advantage over this deal is that he's moving from a premium defensive position to third, instead of moving off third like Wigginton.

The Utility Players

Ramon Vasquez, Pittsburgh Pirates

Contract Details: 2 years, 4 million (09-1.75m, 10-2m)

Notes: There is a lot of Wigginton here too, as Vasquez wasn't as good offensively as Tejada nor was he as good defensively (comparatively, that is). Still, Vasquez landed a role with the Pirates and a reasonable contract. This reminds me too much of a Geoff Blum signing instead of what Tejada will fetch.

Mark Loretta, Los Angeles Dodgers

Contract Details: 1 year, 1.25 million

Notes: At this point in his career, Loretta was going to be nothing more than a valuable addition off the bench. His contract reflects this and though he could still play third base in a pinch (Loretta played 23 games in 2009), but this is more like the contract Tejada may get in two years.

The Outlier

Willie Bloomquist, Kansas City Royals

Contract Details: 2 years, 3.1 million (09-1.4m, 10-1.7m)

Notes: Remember when we were talking about Jose Valverde? And we saw all the crazy stuff that Dayton Moore has done? Fit the Bloomquist signing into that vein. The utility player with the Mariners was given a multi-year, multi-million dollar contract and played mostly in the outfield for the Royals. This was just a weird signing all around.

Non-Free Agents of Note

Edwin Encarnacion, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays

Contract Details: 2 years, 7.6 million (09-2m, 10-4.7m)

Notes: This starts a couple of third basemen who recently signed contracts, before they get to free agency. With Encarnacion, the Reds were simply buying out a couple of arbitration years, but the numbers fit into the overall picture of what Tejada could command. Interestingly enough, the Reds traded Encarnacion to the Blue Jays mid-season for Scott Rolen.

Chipper Jones, 3B, Atlanta Braves

Contract Details: 3 years, 42 million (10-13m, 11-13m, 12-13m, 13-7m option)

Notes: Jones is the outlier of all outliers, since he's a franchise icon in Atlanta and could end up in the Hall of Fame some day. The Braves couldn't have let Chipper walk out the door, but after flirting with .400, his leverage was very high to get a huge deal done. Thus, this three-year deal, averaging 13 million per. Was an aging player worth this? I'm not sure, but it's definitely going to be the contract Tejada's agent bases his sales pitches around.

Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Washington Nationals

Contract Details: 5 years, 45 million (09-3.325m, 10-6.25m, 11-8.925m, 12-12m, 13-14m)

Notes: Another deal which bought out part of Zimmerman's arbitration years. This also goes for Troy Tulowitski and Ryan Braun's new deals. Zimmerman got a nice bump and quite the salary security for the next five years.

The Breaking News

Jack Wilson, SS, Seattle Mariners

Contract Details: 2 years 10 million (10-5 million, 11-5 million)

Notes: Wilson avoided free agency by agreeing to a deal with the Mariners last Friday. Wilson is nowhere near the hitter Tejada is, posting a wOBA of .286, but is much better with the glove. The Mariners acquired Wilson midway through last season to replace the departed Yuniesky Betancourt. Wilson had an 8.4 million dollar option, which the Mariners didn't have to exercise by coming to terms with him on this deal. If a more one-dimensional player like Wilson can get an average of 5 million per year, it doesn't bode well for Tejada, who may be moved to a less premium defensive position.

Forecast for Tejada

Taking into account Buster Olney's latest comments from above and the market from last season, it's safe to assume Tejada will sign for somewhere around 7 million per year for two years. Some team may be willing to up that number to around 9 or 10 million, but only over one season. I could see the White Sox possibly making a move here, but I don't see Tejada getting more than a two year deal from anyone. Not at his age nor when he'd have to most likely move positions. It's also highly unlikely any team would commit serious money to him as a shortstop, but don't rule out the Royals.

Searching for the Astros Skipper, Weekend Rundown

davoag — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 15:24:26 -0000

Six candidates interviewed in the past three days, and five of them haven't been profiled yet. But before we move on to that, I thought it'd be constructive to get a historical perspective on the job they're interviewing for. What do these guys need to do to become the best manager of the 18 in Astro history? Here's a handy reference chart:

Most wins by a Houston manager: Bill Virdon, 544

Most playoff appearances: Larry Dierker, 4

Most seasons at the helm: Bill Virdon, 8

Most wins in career (non-Houston): Leo Durocher, 2,008

First up on the managerial rewind is Bob Melvin, former Arizona Diamondbacks skipper:

Bob Melvin
     Age: 47
     Hometown: Palo Alto, Calif.
     College: California.
     Most recent job: Manager of the Arizona Diamondbacks.
     Previous Major League managing experience: Managed the Seattle Mariners in 2003-04 and Arizona Diamondbacks from 2005 until he was dismissed on May 9 of this year after a 12-17 start. He won 93 games with Seattle in 2003 but didn't make the playoffs and lost 99 games the following year. Melvin was hired by the Diamondbacks and led Arizona to the 2007 NL West title before being swept in the NLCS by the Colorado Rockies. He was NL Manager of the Year in 2007.
     Minor League managing experience: None.
     Minor League managing record: None.
     Playing experience: Melvin spent most of his career as a backup catcher for 10 seasons with Detroit, San Francisco, Baltimore, Kansas City, Boston, the New York Yankees and Chicago White Sox. He hit .233 with 35 homers and 212 RBIs in 692 career games.
    Did you know: Melvin was hired by Arizona to replace Wally Backman, who was dismissed before he managed a single game because of past discretions?
     What GM Ed Wade said: "Once we started to focus in on some names and we did our homework and talked to people like Pat Gillick and [former Diamondbacks general manager] Joe Garagolia Jr., they thought he did a good job."

Melvin was a hot candidate when he landed with Seattle back in 2003, but had an up-and-down tenure in Arizona. He did usher in a bunch of kids and helped the D'Backs to win the 2007 NL West title, but he also oversaw the under-development of guys like Chris Young and Stephen Drew. His bullpen management was also spotty, mainly because he constantly changed closers due to injuries and ineffectiveness.

The interesting thing about Melvin is he had almost the exact opposite situation in Arizona that he'd have here in Houston. Out there, his rotation consisted of Brandon Webb, Randy Johnson and Dan Haren for at least part of his tenure. That's three top-flight starters breezing through town, while his offense struggled for the most part. Arizona finished 14th in runs scored in 2007, 10th in 2008 and though the D'Backs finished 9th in 2009, they also gave up the third-most runs in the league. For comparison, they gave up the fifth-least runs in both 2007 and 2008.

So, though his offense did trend upwards over the past three seasons, once they lost Webb and Johnson, the D'Backs pitching fell off a cliff. I wonder how much discussion went into what he'd do with Houston's rotation?

Moving on to the next candidate, Phil Garner:

Phil Garner
     Age: 60
     Hometown: Jefferson City, Tenn.
     College: Tennessee.
     Most recent job: Manager of the Astros
     Previous Major League managing experience: Garner managed for more than 14 years in the Majors, spending eight seasons in Milwaukee (1992-1999) and two full seasons in Detroit (2000-01) before being dismissed six games into 2002 season. He took over the Astros at the All-Star break in 2004 and led them to the NLCS and a year later to the World Series. He was let go with 31 games left in the 2007 season and has been out of baseball since.
     Major League managing record: 985-1,054.
     Minor League managing experience: None.
     Minor League managing record: None.
     Playing experience: Spent 16 seasons in the Major Leagues with Oakland, Pittsburgh, Houston, the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco and hit .260 with 109 homers and 738 RBIs in 1,860 games. He helped Pittsburgh to the 1979 World Series title by hitting .500 in the World Series. He played with the Astros from 1981-87 and appeared in more games with the Astros than he did with any other team.
    Did you know: Garner became a candidate after calling Astros president of baseball operations Tal Smith to recommend Bob Melvin for the job?
     What GM Ed Wade said: "I've known Phil since we crossed paths in 1981 when I went to the Pirates and he was there. I've been a big fan from afar in Detroit and then here his record speaks for itself. He's a tremendous candidate."

Not going to spend too much time on Scrap Iron, but suffice it to say, he's got an interesting candidacy. Using that whole good cop, bad cop theory of coach hiring, Garner was the perfect, laid-back guy to get the manager's job from Jimy Williams, who was a little more on the prickly side. After Gar was Cecil Cooper, who turned out to have his own prickly side. Naturally, the team thought of the laid-back Garner again...wait, what? I've stopped trying to think about why they'd consider a guy they fired so recently, so let's just move on...

Next up is Pete Mackanin:

Pete Mackanin
     Age: 58
     Hometown: Chicago.
     College: Illinois.
     Most recent job: Currently the bench coach for the Philadelphia Phillies.
     Previous Major League managing experience: Has been interim manager twice, with Pittsburgh in 2005 and Cincinnati in 2007. He went 12-14 in the final 26 games with the Pirates in '05 and 41-39 in the second half of the season two years later with the Reds, who had the worst record in the Majors when Mackanin took over.
     Major League managing record: 53-53.
     Minor League managing experience: Managed in the Minor Leagues for 13 seasons and won championships in 1995 (Ottawa of the International League), 2002 (Lynchburg of the Carolina League) and 1990 (Nashville, Eastern Division championship of the American Association). Mackanin has also managed in Venezuela League, Dominican winter league and Puerto Rican winter league. He also has seven years of Major League coaching experience with Pittsburgh and Montreal.
     Minor League managing record: 917-849.
     Playing experience: Played for nine years as an infielder in the Major Leagues with Texas (1973-74), Montreal (1975-77), Philadelphia (1978-79) and Montreal (1980-81). He hit .226 with 30 homers and 141 RBIs in 548 career games.
      Did you know: Mackanin has been succeeded twice by Jim Tracy as a manager, with Class A Peoria in 1986 and the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2006? He succeeded Tracy as manager at Triple-A Ottawa in 1995.
     What GM Ed Wade said: "Pete served as interim manager it Pittsburgh and Cincinnati and had great results taking over in Cincinnati. I talked to Wayne Krivsky, who as the GM [in Cincinnati] at the time, and he was a really big advocate of Pete's. He has managing experience in winter, extensively in the Minor Leagues and on two Major League club. He has a great personality and a good sense of humor."

The most interesting thing about Mackanin was what he did with the 2007 Reds. That team had 51 losses when he took over in July and went on to win 41 of their last 80 games. Basically, Mackanin played .500 ball for the last half of the season. Of course, those same Reds finished above the league average in runs scored in 2007 but dead last in runs allowed. The Reds were hitting .254 as a team when Mackanin took over and finished by hitting .279 over the last three months of the season, including a team line of .309/.375/.499 in August. Good seasons by Scott Hatteberg, Brandon Phillips, Edwin Encarnacion and Josh Hamilton show that Mackanin has experience getting the most out of some very different personalities.

Still, the pitching woes of the Reds that season is at least a little troubling. Mackanin used his bullpen for 263 innings and had an ERA above 5 with his relievers in the second half. His overall ERA jumped up to 5.11 from 4.79 as well, though he basically had to cobble together a rotation behind Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo. This is definitely another case of a guy who needs to answer quite a few questions about what he sees with the Astros pitching staff.

Next is former Astros shortstop Tim Bogar:

Tim Bogar
     Age: 45
     Hometown: Indianapolis, Ind.
     College: Eastern Illinois.
     Most recent job: Currently first -base coach for Boston Red Sox.
     Previous Major League managing experience: None.
     Major League managing record: None.
     Minor League managing experience: Spent four seasons as manager in the Minor Leagues with Cleveland (2006-07) and the Astros (2004-05) and went to the playoff in three of those seasons. Led Double-A Akron to the Eastern League title in '06 and '07 and was named the league's Manager of the Year in '06. He was named Manger of the Year in the Appalachian League in 2004 in his first year of managing at Class A Greeneville. The next year, he led Class A Lexington to an 81-58 record, the best record in the South Atlantic League.
     Minor League managing record: 289-200.
     Playing experience: An infielder who spent nine years in the Major Leagues with the New York Mets, the Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers, Bogar hit .228 with 24 homers and 161 RBIs in 701 career games. He started a career-high 82 games at shortstop for the Astros in 2000 whiles sharing time with Julio Lugo.
    Did you know: Bogar played all nine positions in an exhibition game for the Mets against Triple-A Norfolk in 1996?
     What GM Ed Wade said: "When this process started, a lot of people spoke very favorable of Tim. I don't know him, but certainly there are multiple people, including people on our interview committee and [president of baseball operations] Tal [Smith] and others, that felt Bogar fit the profile extremely well. Despite the fact he hasn't managed in the big leagues, they felt the experience they had with him and dealing with players [was positive]."

Bogar brings back fond memories of that late '90s playoff era, and has been a surprisingly effective minor league manager. The thing that sticks out to me was a couple years after he retired, he visited the Astros in Kissimmee as a Rawlings sales representative. The irony of a guy known for his glovework selling gloves to teams was not lost on me at the time.

Yet another anecdote I recall from his time with the Astros: some time in that playoff run (I believe it was 1997), Bogar broke his arm and had to spend the rest of the season on the bench. He credited Dierker with helping him see the field as a manager at the time, and claimed it helped him play smarter when he was on the field. Since he never hit much, it was nice to think our shorstop was sort of a manager on the field, and I remember Dierker praising his acumen on helping the fielders around him. Of course, I cannot now find any evidence of this. Still, I do recall reading about that back in the day.

I'm not sure what Bogar's strengths or weaknesses as a manager might be. We can assume that he'd help their fielding, but that's too simple a conjecture to really be true. Plus, the Astros have actually been a pretty good fielding club for the past couple of seasons. For all the grief I've given Tejada for the past two seasons, he's a good defender. Yes, he doesn't really have the range to play short any more, but he's a vacuum cleaner out there when the ball is hit near him.

Lastly, let's look at Brad Mills, bench coach for the Boston Red Sox:

Brad Mills
     Age: 52
     Hometown: Exeter, Calif.
     College: College of the Sequoias/University of Arizona.
     Most recent job: Currently bench coach for the Boston Red Sox.
     Previous Major League managing experience: None.
     Major League managing record: None.
     Minor League managing experience: Mills managed 11 seasons in the Minor Leagues in the Cubs (1987-92), Rockies (1993-96) and Dodgers (2002) organizations, moving into managing immediately upon the completion of his playing career. He led the Rockies' Triple-A club in Colorado Springs to the playoffs in 1994 and Pacific Coast League title in 1995. He last managed in 2002, when he guided the Dodgers' Triple- A Las Vegas affiliate to a club-record 85 wins the PCL's Southern Division championship.
     Minor League managing record: Unavailable.
     Playing experience: Appeared in 106 career games over four seasons, all with the Montreal Expos (1980-1983). He hit .256 with one homer and 12 RBIs in 168 at-bats.
     Did you know: Mills was Nolan Ryan's 3,509th career strikeout victim, lifting Ryan past Walter Johnson as baseball's all-time strikeout king in 1983?
     What GM Ed Wade said: "I've always had great respect for Brad. [Boston manager] Terry Francona made a point of calling me when the search began and gave a strong endorsement for Millsy and he got a strong endorsement from [Boston general manager] Theo Epstein. Despite the fact he hasn't managed the big-league level, everyone knows he's got tremendous experience working as [Francona's] right-hand guy in Philadelphia and Boston and managed in the Minor Leagues."

It's easy to assume that the bench coach is the guy next in line for the managerial position. After all, that's what Cecil Cooper did for all those years and it's what a ton of other guys have done over the years (Joe Maddon, possibly? I can't remember anything today). Still, it appears that the pitching coach in Boston, John Farrell, is the heir-apparent to Francona and not Mills. That explains why he'd be interested in our position. Now, why should the Astros care about him? Was this interview just a way to get Bogar on the docket?

Mills is right in the middle of the candidate pool, age-wise. He's not as young as Manny Acta or Bogar, nor is he as old as Garner or Mackanin. He's won consistently in the minor leagues and certainly has been around a winning ball club there in Boston. The Red Sox run their organization the way I'd hope the Astros will someday, making decisions based partly on numbers and partly on traditional scouting. They spend a ton of money, but they just don't throw it around too frivolously (ahem*Dice-K*ahem). How much contact Mills has with this side of the team, I don't know. The other side of that coin is, if that's what Mills is used to, can he work for the Astros, who don't seem to run their team in quite the same way? Food for thought.

Thus endeth Round One. With the word that Manny Acta is a finalist for the Cleveland job, are the Astros now taking too long in their search? What could a second round of interviews possibly tell them that this one didn't? We've already got to wait until after the World Series to announce who the new skipper is, but that doesn't mean they can't go ahead and hire them ahead of time and announce it later. What's your top five list of the candidates and who do you think will end up getting hired?

Poll

Who is your top candidate?

Tim Bogar

34 votes

Pete Mackanin

16 votes

Manny Acta

39 votes

Brad Mills

20 votes

Bob Melvin

25 votes

Al Pedrique

2 votes

Dave Clark

6 votes

Phil Garner

64 votes

Ned Yost

19 votes

Randy Ready

1 votes

226 votes | Poll has closed

The Farmies, part 2

nycredsfan — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 17:00:28 -0000

No, it's the FarMIES...but they're all welcome anyway

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Welcome to day two of the Farmies. Yesterday brought us some major power, defense, and rising prospects. Today we celebrate the real cream of the crop of the Reds minor league system.

Comeback Player of the Year

Homer Bailey

Let's review:

2007-Bailey makes his debut to delirious fan support and is anointed the Great Hope. He proceeds to struggle a bit the rest of the year.

2008-He's beaten out for a rotation spot by Johnny Cueto and has a very rough year between AAA and the bigs. In the offseason he almost gets traded straight up for Jermaine Dye.

2009-He learns a bit of humility, a bit of control, and the split-finger and dominates AAA. He comes up to Cincinnati and has a positively Arroyo-like end to the season. His last 9 starts he goes 6-1 with a 1.70 ERA, striking out 53 in 58 innings and holding opponents to a .631 OPS against.

Last offseason many had given up on him. As of this minute he might be our second best starter. Welcome, GoodHomer. We hope you're here to stay.

Honorable Mention:

This goes to Justin Lehr for two reasons: 1) He was pitching in Korea last year, and this year posted a 2.51 ERA and .89 WHIP in 75 AAA innings, and 2) Teaching Homer the splitter. Big ups, Justin. I wish you the best of luck, just not with the Cincinnati Reds.

2010 Breakout Candidate

Devin Mesoraco

Wait a minute, you say. How do you give it to a guy who hit .228 in high-A this season? Here's why: His BB rate, LD% and ISO all improved dramatically, and his average was weighed down by a .276 BABIP despite the high line drive rate. AND he was only 20/21 playing in the FSL, which makes everyone not named Jay Bruce look bad the first time round. Minorleaguesplits.com's luck factor says he should've put up a line of .279/.356/.452. I'd take that from my catcher. Most importantly, perhaps, his defense behind the plate is reported to be much improved. Next year will be his 3^rd full pro season, and I could see him cruising through Carolina and being a late season call-up to AAA, with people debating whether to make him or Ramon Hernandez the starter in 2011.

Honorable Mention:

Juan Duran-Next year you can start to judge him by his stats, which I'm guessing will be much better.

Minor League Manager of the Year

Rick Sweet

Last year's IL manager of the year is this year's RR Manager of the Year. I can't imagine how hard it is to manage a AAA team with so much personnel change during a season, but Sweet kept the Bats rolling all year to an 84-58 record and the organization's only playoff berth. He owns a 387-330 record in 5 seasons as the Bats manager. The Reds record over that span is 377-433. Draw your own conclusions.

Honorable Mention

Joe Ayrault-Do you have any idea which team he manages? Didn't think so. His team was terrible, but I thought he deserved a little love anyway. His Wikipedia page has a couple fun facts.

Minor League Hitter of the Year

Juan Francisco

.296/.328/.523, 29 HR, 32 doubles, 93 RBI. Would you take that line from your third baseman? How about your left fielder? That's the line El Nino Destructor put up over two levels (AA-AAA) this season. You can talk all you want about walks and strikeouts, E.N.D. won't listen. He crushed AA as a 21 year old, turned 22, decided he was a man amongst boys, and proceeded to own AAA. Then, when called up to the big club in September, as the team's youngest player (2 months younger than Bruce), he put up an OPS of 1.139 in 25 plate appearances. In that short time he was worth .5 WAR, which was more than Willy Taveras, Alex Gonzalez, Edwin Encarnacion, Adam Rosales, Darnell McDonald, and Drew Sutton, and equaled the value of Jerry Hairston Jr. and Ramon Hernandez......ROAR.

(Thanks to BubbaFan for the amazingly awesome pic)

Honorable Mention:

Always a bridesmaid but never a bride, Chris Heisey had this award wrapped up in late June, scuffled a bit in AAA, but still put together a good campaign. He was pipped at the post by Francisco's August and September. Final line-.319/.386/.523

Todd Frazier had another very, very solid season. If you like walks (I gaze into their eyes at night) it was tempting to give him this award. Final line-.292/.353/.474

Minor League Pitcher of the Year

Travis Wood

This one's a no brainer. Over two levels (AA-AAA) Wood posted a 13-5 record. He must be good right? In addition to the all-important W-L record, Wood sported a 7.15 K/9 rate and lowered his BB/9 rate to 2.86, by far his best rate in 4 professional seasons. These two solid peripherals, combined with a low BABIP, meant that his WHIP was a sparkling 1.04. Oh, and he only gave up 6 homers all year in 176 IP. Yes, but wasn't he supported by good defenses in Carolina and Louisville? Perhaps, but his FIP was a very solid 3.28. Did I mention the kid is only 22? Stop your arguing, the kid can pitch.

Honorable Mention:

Zach (sniff, sniff) Stewart

Justin Lehr had a great year in Louisville, and taught Homer that splitter. If he had any prospect value he'd be on stage crying and thanking his agent right now.

That's all, folks. Thanks for joining us tonight, don't forget to tip your waiters, and we'll see you again next year.

The Scott Rolen Deal: No Thank You

Charlie — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 23:56:20 -0000

More photos » by Keith Srakocic - AP

2 months ago: Cincinnati Reds' Scott Rolen, center, is greeted by teammates in the dugout after he scored in the eighth inning of the baseball game against the Pittsburgh Pirates in Pittsburgh, Tuesday, Sept. 22, 2009. Rolen scored twice and drove in three runs as the Reds won 10-4. (AP Photo/Keith Srakocic)

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Forgive me for being a bit late to comment on this article by Dejan Kovacevic, but I just saw it.

Ten Ways to Reboot the Pirates in 2010: 1. Spend.

Sign Rick Ankiel or any free agent -- Nick Johnson? Mark DeRosa? Xavier Nady for a second tour? -- who might bring some pop to the lineup.

Make a trade for a quality player, regardless of cost.

The Pirates' current $23 million roster -- which projects to $28 million with raises -- has to represent the low point. There is no rule that says a team building from within must be a catastrophe at the major league level until the prospects arrive. Provided that acquisitions do not block key players -- signing, say, a center fielder would be absurd -- the only reason not to fill other holes would be to create more leftover money.

When Cincinnati recently traded for Scott Rolen and his $11 million salary after being miles out of contention, many in baseball scoffed. But the Reds went 25-11 with Rolen, and their many youngsters might have their development aided by his presence.

I'm not opposed to spending a bit of money on a player like Nick Johnson. But, as ever, it amazes me how little people have learned from the Pirates' recent experience.

First: the idea that the Rolen trade represents a good model for the Pirates is just beyond belief. Rolen has had a great career and all, but he has now whined his way out of three of the four organizations he's played for. (In fairness, his manager in Philadelphia, Larry Bowa, was hated by everyone, but still.) The idea that he, of all people, would be the sort of veteran player whose mere "presence" aids the development of youngsters is stunning to me. The Reds' ERA did improve after he arrived, and his superior defense probably did help out with that somewhat, but that's hardly a reason to make crazy trades for veterans if you otherwise should be recharging.

If Kovacevic is simply saying that Rolen helped the Reds with his play on the field helped the Reds' young pitchers, that's one thing. But his use of the word "presence" suggests that that's not what he's saying, espec ially since he didn't mention the pitching staff.

Has there ever been any sort of empirical data that shows that the addition of veteran players helps young players? I don't know of one, and while I can't prove it isn't true, it's fair to note that every team has veterans, and so it's quite easy to credit a veteran for his "presence" every time a team plays surprisingly well.

The flipside is that, if you want to, you can blame them and their "presence" when things go wrong. Of course, that would seem mean-spirited and stupid, wouldn't it? Of course it would. And yet it's every bit as logical as suggesting that the mere "presence" of veterans helps.

The best we can do if we're looking at the effect a player has is to look at how he played on the field. Mere "presence" doesn't seem to matter much, and Pirates fans should know that as well as anybody. How many more wins did Matt Morris' "presence" bring? How about Doug Mientkiewicz's? Or Jose Mesa's? Or Jeromy Burnitz's? Or Joe Randa's? Or Eric Hinske's? Just the other day Kovacevic implied that Hinske was a part of the "awful atmosphere" that surrounded the Pirates in 2009. And yet he was one of the Bucs' biggest veteran additions the previous offseason.

To be fair, I'm sure Kovacevic doesn't believe we should acquire these veterans indiscriminately; perhaps he means that there are some veterans who add something with their presence, and others who don't. But then why focus on a well-known whiner like Rolen (who, after all, pretty much did exactly what Hinske did by begging out of Philadelphia, St. Louis, and Toronto) or an alleged PED user like Rick Ankiel? Or, for that matter, a guy like Nady who's probably a perfectly nice guy but who has already spent a considerable amount of time in PNC Park, apparently without dropping any of that magic veteran pixie dust on the place?

There may, of course, be times that veteran "presence" does help. But even if that's true, no one ever seems to know what they are beforehand. The gift of veteran "presence" is one that only seems to appear after the fact, and then it appears completely randomly, such that a perpetual malcontent like Rolen all of a sudden becomes a savior for no other reasons than that 1) his new team happened to play well following a trade and 2) he's old. In Pittsburgh, we've had veteran after veteran, and none of them have brought anything extra to the team other than what they've done on the field. At least nothing we've seen. So why should we make this same mistake again?

The Rolen trade, in particular, was insane. The Reds traded a very good starting pitching prospect (Zach Stewart), a potentially functional young reliever (Josh Roenicke) and a very talented, if extremely frustrating, young third baseman (Edwin Encarnacion) to get him. In terms of value, this would be a little like if the Pirates traded Rudy Owens, Eric Hacker and Lastings Milledge--for a player who's old and expensive and will be gone after 2010. A potential crowd-pleaser, perhaps, but utterly bonkers in terms of the goals of the franchise.

So when someone says that the Pirates, who are two years from contending in the best of circumstances, should "trade for a quality player, regardless of cost" and points to the Scott Rolen deal as an example of what the Bucs should do, I have to ask: Really?

Kovacevic does have a point that there's no reason the Pirates shouldn't sign a veteran or two this offseason--if the right opportunity presents itself. But jeez, let's at least agree on some some basic tenets here. The point of having youngsters on a 62-win team is not to trade for aging free-agents-to-be. And veteran "presence" isn't going to matter without talent to back it up--just ask the 2007 Pirates. Or the 2006 Pirates. Or the 2004 Pirates. And so on.

Goodbye, Goodnight: Orioles 5, Jays 4

hugo — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 21:04:00 -0000

More photos » by Gail Burton - AP

2 months ago: Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Ricky Romero delivers against the Baltimore Orioles in the third inning of a baseball game Sunday, Oct. 4, 2009, in Baltimore. (AP Photo/Gail Burton)

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The Jays' season came sputtering to a close this afternoon with a series sweep at the hands of the Baltimore Orioles. Today's game was an extra-inning affair the Jays lost in the bottom of the 11th.

On the Mound: Ricky Romero pitched pretty well for the Jays, though he gave up 4 runs. Three walks in 7 innings hurt him, but he struck out 8 and only gave up 5 hits (one of which was a 2-run home run by Nick Markakis). The long ball has been a thorn in Romero's side all season and will surely be something he works on next year.

At the Plate: Edwin Encarnacion hit another home run, which was encouraging. Edwin had a very good close to the season, batting .261/.343/.500 from September 1st on. If his wrist issues are behind him, he could have a good season at the plate next year. Jose Bautista and John McDonald also hit solo shots, and Travis Snider added an RBI double. Randy Ruiz had 2 doubles, a single, and a walk for a nice afternoon at the office. Vernon Wells had one of those days, going 0-5 and leaving a lot of men on base before Joe Inglett took his spot in the lineup to give him a bit of an early end to the season.

From the Pen: Jesse Carlson and Shawn Camp combined to hold the line for three innings, giving the Jays the chance to tie it at four on J-Mac's home run in the 7th, but Brandon League had some serious problems in the 11th, giving up a leadoff single and then throwing two away in a row and allowing the run to score. His focus just wasn't there - understandable, I suppose, given the circumstances - he has had a ridiculously hard-luck season and likely just wanted it to be over. I'm going to go ahead and pencil him in for a big season next year.

The Jays finish the season at 75-87, pretty poor considering how hot they started. Their pythagorean record, however, was over .500 (83-79), showing that the Jays have been the victim of poor run distribution. Normally, I might say bad luck, but this is the third straight season that the Jays have underperformed their pythagorean record and particularly struggled to hit with runners in scoring position, so that really won't fly.

Walk Off Wins Are Fun. Aaron Hill Comes Up Big in Extras

Tom Dakers — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 03:43:33 -0000

More photos » by Darren Calabrese - AP

2 months ago: Toronto Blue Jays shortstop John McDonald fields a chopper to throw out Baltimore Orioles' Lou Montanez during the fourth inning of a baseball game in Toronto on Tuesday, Sept. 22, 2009. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Darren Calabrese)

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Orioles 5 Blue Jays 6 (11 innings)

Winning is nice, come back wins are even better. The fangraph is cool so let's put it up.

Brian Tallet, I thought, didn't pitch as bad as his line reads. 6.1 inning, 11 hits, no walks, 3 strikeouts. Not many of the hits were hit all that hard, but he was helped out by some good defense. Carlson, League, Accardo and Camp pitched us 4.2 innings of shutout ball.

Offensively, we got back to back homers in the 3rd from Aaron Hill and Edwin Encarnacion. Encarnacion hit another homer, a two run shot in the 8th. In the 9th we loaded the bases and Jose Bautista took one for the team to bring in the tying run. But Hill and Encarnacion struck out to end the inning. We had a good chance to win the the 10th, loading the bases again but since we don't have a backup shortstop, we can't pinch hit for John McDonald. In the 11th Bautista walked and Hill doubled him home for the win and his 100th RBI. .

We had 11 hits on the day, everyone in the starting lineup had at least one hit but everyone's hero Kevin Millar and Rod Barajas. Rod is back into a slump, 0 for his last 17. It is pretty bad when those two are our 5 and 6 hitters, batting .232 (Rod) and .209 (Kevin). Millar did take a walk but was thrown out at the plate trying to score from first on a double. Man is he slow.

Jays of the Day are Bautista (.347 WPA), Hill (.193), Camp (.143), Travis Snider (.158) and Lind (.109). Encarnacion didn't get the WPA number but I'm giving him a JoD anyway. Suckage Jays are Tallet (-.261), Overbay (-.164) and Barajas (-.099).

One thing I really don't understand, in September with expanded rosters, why can't we bring in another guy that can play SS so we could maybe pinch hit for John McDonald? I know it might cost the team a buck fifty, but wouldn't it be worth it?

It is very nice to see Encarnacion show off some power. He has 5 homer in the last two weeks. And his defense looks better, to me, than advertised.

Tomorrow we go for the sweep with Scott Richmond (5-10, 5.31). Orioles are starting Jeremy Guthrie (19-15, 5.05) so there should be some offense.

Downs Blows Lead in 8th, Jays Lose

jessef — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 03:32:03 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

I know Hideki Matsui's just doing his job, but why does he have to do it so well against the Jays? This was his sixth homerun and he hit .373 / .439 / .745 against us this season. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

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Yankees 5 Blue Jays 4

Well, the Yankees took an early lead off Brian Tallet when they scored two runs in the first inning, off an RBI double by Mark Teixeira and an RBI single by Hideki Matsui. Vernon Wells doubled to lead off the second, but the Jays were unable to cash him. In the bottom of the second, Tallet took a grounder off his foot. He stayed with the ball, got the out at first and got a strikeout to end the inning. In the top of the third, the Jays came back to tie it up, thanks to a solo homerun from Jose Bautista and successive singles from Travis Snider and Marco Scutaro (an infield single off Yankees starter Chad Gaudin) and an Adam Lind RBI groundout. Shawn Camp came on to relieve Tallet due to injury concerns related to the grounder he took off the foot in the third and pitched three scoreless (indeed excellent) innings.

The Jays plated a run in the sixth off a Vernon Wells single, Lyle Overbay double and Rod Barajas RBI groundout, but were unable to add to the lead thanks to an intentional walk to Jose Bautista (I'm not making that up), which led to a Moonraker strikeout against Damaso Marte. Casey Janssen pitched an excellent sixth inning and the Jays added another run in the top of the seventh when Scoot doubled and Lind got him in with a sacrifice fly. Tek came back out for the seventh and ran into a bit of trouble when he gave up a single and Edwin Encarnacion made an error (albeit on a pretty tough play). However, Jeremy Accardo came in and got a quick strikeout, walked Derek Jeter and then induced a fly ball to left to escape the inning with the two-run lead still in tact. Tom requested that I do the recap and that's when things -- naturally -- fell apart. Cito went to Scott Downs for the eighth and before being removed with -- I think -- elbow tightness, he yielded a single to Alex Rodriguez and a game-tying dinger to Hideki Matsui. Jason Frasor closed out the eighth, but the Jays were unable to capitalize on a Moonraker bunt single in the top of the ninth and the score was tied at four going into the bottom of the ninth. Leading off the inning, Brett Gardner singled off Frasor on a full count and predictably stole second base. Derek Jeter grounded out to put Gardner on third and he scored when Francisco Cervelli (playing only because of Jorge Posada's suspension) drove him home with the game-winning single.

Jays of the Day: Camp (.185), Accardo (.159) and Overbay (.159). Honorable mentions to Scoot and Vernon, who had a single and double each, as well as Tek, who would have fared better, were it not for E5's error.

Towers goes to Tallet (-.110), though he may have fared better if he'd been able to stay in.

Batistas go to Snakeface (-.380) and Frasor (-.306).

Hinskes go to Lind (-.161, in spite of the two RBI) and E5 (-.138, plus the error) and Rod Barajas comes close (-.095).

Well, at least we don't have to watch anymore Yankees walk-off wins this year.