SB Nation - Dan Meyer

Two Astros' starts, how the Marlins finish and Being clutch without swinging the bat

HighLeveragePerformer — Tue, 18 Aug 2009 11:00:13 -0000

The Astros' Mr. Clutch

And Bazardo makes three: With Mike Hampton's injured shoulder holding him back for at least one start, Yorman Bazardo will become the third former Round Rock starter to make his season debut for the Astros in 2009. He is following in the footsteps of Felipe Paulino and Bud Norris. Hampton is going to throw a bullpen today in hopes of returning to the rotation on Saturday.

For what it's worth, isn't this what we all pretty much expected from the Ortiz/Hampton experiment? That at some point, both veterans would step/be pushed aside in favor of younger arms? It was a marriage of convenience for Ed Wade and those two: the Astros would have two fairly cheap replacement level arms to toss out there on the cheap, and Ortiz/Hampton would be able to showcase their arms coming off serious injuries. At certain points it seemed like it could work, that they would at least give the Astros a puncher's chance of winning in the games that they started. At this point though, the experiment has been much more failure than success.

With the deadline to sign 2009 draftees having past, the Astros didn't have to sweat not having their highest draft choices go unsigned. First rounder Jiovanni Mier is no exception. A number of early signees have gotten off to solid professional starts, and Jio is no exception:

Houston has done a very good job of bungling previous drafts to horrific levels, but the organization seems to be making amends with its last two drafts. Mier was selected out of a California high school with the 21st pick of the draft and has performed better than expected. The raw shortstop is currently hitting .302/.406/.504 with nine steals and 15 extra base hits in 139 at-bats. Scouting reports suggest Mier has average to below-average power, but he’s already hit four homers in rookie ball. He’s also showing an encouraging walk rate of 13.1 BB%.

Heading into last week's series with the Marlins I was somewhat optimistic because while the Astros pitching staff doesn't strike out that many batters, the Marlins were a team with a reputation for being a fairly free swinging team. Obviously, they had no problem hitting against the Astros, and worked counts well. In the Miami Herald, I came across an article that detailed how well the Fish were hitting of late. Up and down their lineup, there are no holes. Everyone can hit for extra bases, and guys like Nick Johnson and Dan Uggla will work counts and draw walks.

The other strong suit of the Marlins that really struck me as impressive was their bullpen. They throw hard, limit the long ball and have a top 10 FIP as a group. Matt Lindstrom, their closer entering the season, has been hurt and/or ineffective for much of 2009, but step in closer Leo Nunez, along with unheralded pitchers like Kiko Calero, Brian Sanches and Dan Meyer have filled in the gaps. I wouldn't say that they are the favorites the win the Wild Card, but hot hitting and a strong bullpen can at least help the boat stay afloat until a fourth starter can find his way behind Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco and Chris Volstad.

Say what you will about the Astros, but at least they have a home all to themselves. I tried to find a picture of their "new field", but was unsuccessful. It looks at this point like the A's are a definite afterthought. You can almost picture JaMarcus Russell, Darren McFadden and the rest of the Radiers tapping their toes and pointing at their watches during A games. Then again, I guess if the Texans and Stros played at the same stadium, the same could be said...God Bless the Juice Box.

Last, there is at least one conflucence of sabermetric thought and traditional baseball thought. I present to you: clutch walking.

Nick Johnson's Return To DC Spoiled By Adam Dunn & The Upstart Nationals!!!! Washington Nationals 6, Florida Marlins 4.

Ed Chigliak — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 03:23:33 -0000

More photos » by Haraz N. Ghanbari - AP

4 months ago: Washington Nationals left fielder Adam Dunn, left, is congratulated by teammate Cristian Guzman, right, and an unidentified batboy after hitting a two-run home run against the Florida Marlins, Tuesday, Aug. 4, 2009, in Washington. The Nationals won 6-4. (AP Photo/Haraz N. Ghanbari)

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Nick Johnson's Return To DC Spoiled By Upstart Nationals!!!!

For the first time since September 23, 2008, the Washington Nationals beat the Florida Marlins, but it took a six-run eighth to tie and overtake the Fish, who were 9-0 against DC in 2009 before blowing a 4-0 lead in the nation's capital tonight. Florida right-hander Josh Johnson held the Nationals to just two hits through seven shutout innings, but in the home-half of the eighth, Washington rallied with three-straight singles by Willie Harris, Alberto Gonzalez and Wil Nieves, and a two-run double by Ronnie Belliard that made it 4-2 Florida, knocking Johnson out when a moment ago he'd been cruising. Renyel Pinto replaced Johnson, and gave up an RBI groundout to Nyjer Morgan making it 4-3 and Marlins' right-hander Kiko Calero surrendered a single to Cristian Guzman that scored Ronnie B. and tied it at 4-4. A Josh Willingham pop-up later, Adam Dunn stepped to the plate against lefty Dan Meyer and launched a 93 mph fastball off the outside edge to deeeeep left and GONE!!! SHAKE N BAKE!! SHAKE N BAKE!! SHAKE N BAKE!!! Adam Dunn hits an opposite field 2-run HR to give the Nationals a 6-4 lead after eight.

Mike MacDougal came on in the ninth and struggled his way to his 9th save of the season, giving up a double and a one-out walk before getting a DP grounder out of Jeremy Hermida to DC shortstop Cristian Guzman, who stepped on second and fired to first to end it. Nationals' starter J.D. Martin was out in the fifth, having thrown 99 pitches and surrendered three runs, but the bullpen holds it close, with Jason Bergmann and Ron Villone limiting Florida to just 1 run on 4 hits in 3.2 IP and giving the Nationals the chance to eventually rally...

Game 107: Donkey Math? 3xK + 1xHR = WIN!!! - Doghouse

Nationals win, 6-4 Final.

Miss The Game? The DC Faithful Were Watching.

Check Out The SB Nation's Florida Marlins Blog: Fishstripes: Open Thread And Ichthyomancy: Marlins at Nationals 8/4.

(ed. note - "...ichtyomancy =...")

ichthyomancy - Federal Baseball.com English Dictionary, Vol: 2 :

Ichthyomancy \Ich"thy*o*man`cy\, n. [Gr. 'ichqy`s, -y`os, a fish

   + -mancy: cf. F. ichthyomancie.]

   Divination by the heads or the entrails of fishes.

   [1913 Webster]

A BACKPAGE YOU DON'T WANT TO MISS:

• Adam Dunn Lied To Us!!! SHAKE N BAKE!! BREAK UP THE SHIFT!!!

• The Expos Curse: Broken?

• "Cool Hand" Up Next

For The Completists, Full Game Report After The JUMP...

Nationals now 35-72. (Countdown To 100 Losses Stuck At...28.)

BACKPAGE: (Under Construction)

• Adam Dunn Lied To Us!!! SHAKE N BAKE!! BREAK UP THE SHIFT!!!

A few weeks back, when the Washington Nationals invited a group of bloggers to visit Nationals Park and meet with the team, we were given the opportunity to interview a few players, Adam Dunn amongst them, and when I finally dared to get a question in, I took the chance to ask the one question** one of the Federal Baseball.com regulars, (the estimable Doghouse) wanted answered:

Q: Federal Baseball: "I just had a question for Adam (Dunn), one of the readers on my site wanted to know if you'd changed your hitting approach, at all, we noticed you hitting a lot more singles and opposite field...?"

Adam Dunn:

"Yeah, I was uh, yeah, I've been working on that a lot, trying to hit, you know, a lot more singles this year and, um, you know, just trying to slap the ball to left, and things like that, you know try to use my speed game more...HECK NO, MAN!! (LAUGHTER)...Nah, you know, I don't know I think, it's a lot of little mechanical things, and you kind of work on and continue to work on, and just kinda allowing me to uh, you know, do that, I'm not trying to hit singles."

Dunn may not be trying to hit opposite field singles, but in the last two nights, he's hit two huge opposite field HR's and I'd swear I saw him aiming for the Crawford Boxes last time the Nationals visited the Astros, but maybe it's Dunn's little secret, maybe he wants other teams to keep playing the shift, Heck! Maybe he just wants pitcher to keep giving him fastballs on the outside edge that he can power over whatever fence you put in front of him. The Big Donkey, The Bigger Wilkerson, or Big Wilky, For Short, Big Walky, The Dunn-K!, call him what you will, and come watch him hit 40, cause even when he starts a game with 3 K's he can end it with a Dinger, and even 122 K's can be forgotten!! SHAKE N BAKE!!

(ed. note - " ** = Alright, full disclosure, two people here at Federal Baseball.com wanted questions answered, but the other one was ROSCOE, and he told me to ask Dunn, "Colt McCoy is coming back for his senior season, can the Horns go all the way and take down the Gators?")

• The Expos Curse: Broken?

The last Montreal Expo, Nick Johnson was traded last Friday, and was on the Marlins when the Washington Nationals beat them for the first time this season? Coincidence? Irony? (No, and ninety percent of what people call irony isn't either...sorry, pet peeve...that and celebrities saying things are 'surreal'...but I digest...") Some folks around here apparently believe that now that the last player in the franchise's history to don the powder blues (really pinstripes by Johnson's time) and the eMb is gone things will finally change in NATSTown™. Doghouse wrote about something called the "Curse of the Expos, Divined by the Boxing Priest", which he first read about on the now defunct Bad Nats blog:

Le Malediction de les Expos...Est-Il Pour Vrai? (Pardonnez-moi, j'a seulement étudié le français dans le lycée.)

Doghouse, our resident escaped physicist, went back to his favorite blog, Bad Nats, yesterday seeking the cause of the Nationals' ills, and he seems to think he may have come up with something, it's called the Curse of the Expos, and it was divined by the Boxing Priest...

(ed. note - "It'll probably help if you read these two Bad Nats' posts..."):

• Bad Nats' archive - "Woof"

• Bad Nats' archive - "Ohh Doggies

In explaining the curse in last night's GameThread, Doghouse wrote:

"It’s the curse of Les Expos. The Nats won’t have a winning season until all the former Expos are gone. Sadly, the curse is at its height now that only one remains. Most sadly of all, that one is NJ. If we ever want to win, we may have to trade Nick Johnson."

I always thought, Rob Dibble was right and the Nationals only had to let Teddy win a race to turn things around, but is it going to take the trade of "Two-Spot" Johnson to bring a winning team to DC? Well, the Boxing Priest said so...

Has it been lifted? Now that Nick Johnson has been traded? Will good times take over in NATSTown™? ENATSTown© was abuzz tonight, with many wondering if the curse had been lifted. Will the trade that sent the Last Expo out of DC be the difference...Or maybe the curse of the Expos is just now where it always belonged, with Florida Marlins' owner Jeffrey Loria, who almost single-handedly ended baseball in Montreal and was rewarded with another franchise...Enjoy it, Jeff!!!. Sorry, Nick.

• "Cool Hand" Up Next

Next Game

Florida Marlins
@ Washington Nationals

Wednesday, Aug 5, 2009, 7:05 PM EDT
Nationals Park

Rick VandenHurk (1-0, 2.65) vs John "Cool Hand" Lannan (7-8, 3.41)

Partly cloudy,rain. Winds blowing out to right field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 85.

Complete Coverage >

GAME REPORT:

Florida Marlins At Washington Nationals. Game 107 Of 162.

D.C.’s J.D. Martin and Florida’s Chris Coghlan face off in the first AB. Coghlan lines a full-count fastball to right and Elijah Dukes misplays it into a triple. Nick "Two-Spot" Johnson rips a single by Adam Dunn for a Trademark Single™ and a 1-0 lead. J.D. Martin hits Hanley Ramirez. Nyjer Morgan charges in on a line drive but comes up short, but he makes a strong throw to third for the force on Nick Johnson, who had to wait and see if Morgan made the catch. Martin walks Dan Uggla, then gets serious, striking out Jeremy Hermida on three straight pitches, and popping up Cody Ross to escape a long first...Josh Johnson cranks it up to 96 to get Nyjer Morgan swinging through a two-strike fastball. Cristian Guzman hits a weak pop to short center for a one-out single. Josh Willingham lines a single over second. Josh Johnson busts a two-strike slider inside on Adam Dunn to get a swinging K. Elijah Dukes rips a fastball to center, deeeep and caught by Cody Ross.

John Baker, Fish catcher, pops up to short to start the second. Josh Johnson K’s staring at a curve. Chris Coghlan grounds out to Guzman...Willie Harris pops out to short. Alberto "The General" Gonzalez K’s swinging. Wil Nieves grounds out to end another quick frame for Josh Johnson...Nick Johnson pops out to Willie Harris at third. Hanley Ramirez works the count full and walks with one down. Jorge Cantu grounds back to the mound, Martin throws to first. Dan Uggla takes a two-out walk. Jeremy Hermida grounds to short, Guzman throws to first to end the Marlins’ third...J.D. Martin pops out behind first. Nyjer Morgan K’s flailing at a 98 mph fastball outside. Cristian Guzman grounds back to the mound.

Cody Ross takes a 3-2 fastball to deep left and GONE!!! 2-0 Marlins. John Baker flies out to Nyjer Morgan. Josh Johnson destroys a fastball from J.D. Martin and sends it into the visitor’s bullpen for a 3-0 lead. Chris Coghlan singles, but the great Nick Johnson grounds into a double play to end the top of the fourth...Josh Willingham lines a one-hopper to Hanley Ramirez, who throws to first. Adam Dunn K’s pointing to the third strike with his bat instead of swinging. Elijah Dukes K’s chasing a 2-2 slider.

Hanley Ramirez pops out to Alberto Gonzalez. J.D. Martin surrenders a single to Jorge Cantu and walks Dan Uggla and he’s done, Jason Bergmann heads to the mound from the pen. Jeremy Hermida K’s looking, Cody Ross K’s chasing...Willie Harris K’s swinging through a 95 mph two-strike fastball. Alberto Gonzalez breaks his bat in half, slamming it in frustration after another swinging K. Wil Nieves flies out to Hermida in right to end the fifth.

Florida catcher John Baker lines to center and almost over Nyjer Morgan’s head. Josh Johnson gets a 1-2 bender on the outside edge for a backwards K for Bergmann!!! Chris Coghlan grounds to Adam Dunn at first, and Bergmann’s through the sixth...Jason Bergmann lines out to right. Nyjer Morgan lines out to second. Cristian Guzman grounds out to second to end the sixth...Jason Bergmann issues a leadoff walk to Nick Johnson, who uses his Discerning Eye™ to take a base. Bergmann pops up Hanley Ramirez and gets a fly ball to left from Jorge Cantu. Dan Uggla strokes a two-out single to short, but too deep in the hole, Guzman bounces a weak throw and there are two on with two down. Bergmann out for Ron Villone. Jeremy Hermida’s up. RBI line drive to right, Dukes throws in as Nick Johnson scores. 4-0 Florida. John Baker flies to right to end the top of the seventh...Josh Willingham pops out to first. Adam Dunn K’s swinging. Elijah Dukes grounds to short, Hanley Ramirez throws wide, but Nick Johnson grabs it. 4-0 after seven.

John Baker flies out to Nyjer Morgan in center. Josh Johnson K’s chasing. Ron Villone gives up a two-out single to Chris Coghlan, who drops a blooper into the left-center grass. Nick Johnson pops up behind second, Adam Dunn...drops it, but he throws to first to nail Coghlan as he tries to get back...Willie Harris drops a broken bat single into short right. Alberto Gonzalez follows with a single to center. Wil Nieves sends a weak liner sailing into right, bases loaded, no outs. Ronnie Belliard takes a hanging slider to left center for a two-run double, 4-2 Marlins!!! Josh Johnson out, Renyel Pinto vs Nyjer Morgan. Morgan grounds out to second, Nieves scores, 4-3 Fish. Cristian Guzman vs Kiko Calero. Guzman rips a single through second, by Uggla and Johnson and into right, Belliard scores, 4-4 ballgame. Josh Willingham pops out to Nick Johnson foul of first. Adam Dunn will get a new pitcher, Dan Meyer. Lefty vs Lefty. Adam Dunn takes a 93 mph fastball deeeeeep to left and GONE!! GONE!! GONE!!! SHAKE N BAKE!! SHAKE N BAKE!!! Two-run HR!! 6-4 Nationals!!!!! Elijah Dukes grounds out to third!!!

Mike MacDougal comes on to close it. Hanley Ramirez K’s swinging through a 96 mph fastball upstairs. Jorge Cantu drops a single in in front of Nyjer Morgan in center. Cantu takes second. MacDougal walks Dan Uggla. Jeremy Hermida grounds to short, Cristian Guzman has it, steps on second, throws to first, and the Washington Nationals beat the Florida Marlins for the first time this season!!!

Nationals win, 6-4 final.

Nationals now 35-72.

Casey At The Bat Has A Better Ending For Dodgers

Eric Stephen — Sun, 26 Jul 2009 06:03:47 -0000

More photos » by Danny Moloshok - AP

The Bison Matt Kemp is the designated tackler for all walk-off celebrations at Dodger Stadium.

Browse more photos »

After Casey Blake took the first two pitches from Luis Ayala for strikes, Ernest Lawrence Thayer looked like a prophet. However, the mighty Casey didn't strike out on this night. Instead, The Beard's bloop single with the bases loaded capped a 9th-inning rally tonight to give the Dodgers a 4-3 win over the Marlins at Dodger Stadium. Some notes:

The Dodgers are now 16-2 in one-run games at home this season
Tonight's win was the Dodgers' 10th walk-off win of the season
Andre Ethier has reached base in eight straight plate appearances: single, double, double, walk, double, single, single, walk.
Hiroki Kuroda's splitter was on fire tonight, and he racked up nine strikeouts in his six innings of work. It was a solid outing by Kuroda, who allowed three runs (two earned) and only seven baserunners.
Just like last night, the Dodgers went into the bottom of the sixth inning trailing 3-1, and just like last night, they tied it at three in the bottom of the sixth
Jonathan Broxton picked up his seventh win of the season by pitching a scoreless ninth inning. At home this season, Broxton has allowed one run in 26.2 innings, allowing 11 baserunners while striking out 45.
Guillermo Mota, who turned 36 today, threw 36 pitches in his two scoreless innings of relief, extending his scoreless streak to 19 innings.
Rafael Furcal and Orlando Hudson were quite the table setters tonight, with five hits in 10 at-bats, including one single apiece in the ninth inning

The Dodgers are 6-3 on the homestand, which ends tomorrow with Jason Schmidt facing Chris Volstad.

WP - Jonathan Broxton (7-0): 1 IP, 1 strikeout

LP - Dan Meyer (2-1): 0.1 IP, 2 hits, 1 run

Box Score

Here Come The Marlins

Eric Stephen — Fri, 24 Jul 2009 05:01:09 -0000

More photos » by Lenny Ignelzi - AP

Hanley Ramirez leads his Florida Marlins into LA for the weekend.

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Hanley Ramirez, Josh Johnson, and the Florida Marlins come to Los Angeles for a three-game series at Dodger Stadium starting Friday night. Both clubs had Thursday off, so they will likely be well rested. Both are coming off sweeps; the Marlins just took three straight in San Diego, and five of Florida's last eight series have resulted in a sweep.

Just like the Dodgers, a Ramirez is the Marlins' best player. Hanley is a true superstar -- he has started at shortstop for the National League in the last two All-Star games -- quietly having his best season. Ramirez is leading the league in batting average, hitting .348/.411/.563, with a 4.16 wOBA, and is fifth in MLB in Wins Above Replacement (WAR) with 4.5 (just slightly behind Matt Kemp, by the way).

Old friend Cody Ross still mans centerfield for Florida, and as Joe Frisaro of MLB.com recently noted, Ross was once part of a Dodger minor league outfield with potential:

"[Shane] Victorino, [Jayson] Werth and me, we all clicked," Ross said. "All three of us were in Las Vegas. Me and Victorino were in the outfield. Werth came down on rehab assignments.

"We'd hang out in Spring Training. Those guys became pretty good friends of mine, and we'd keep in touch, even in the offseason."

Heralded corner infield prospect Gaby Sanchez was recalled on Monday, but so far has been limited to pinch-hitting duty. Meanwhile, the Marlins continue to play one of the worst players in baseball, Emilio Bonifacio, at third base. Among those qualified for the batting title, only three players have a lower WAR than Bonifacio's -0.4 (yikes, Vernon Wells!). Bonifacio is below replacement level as a player, yet his in penciled into the first or second spot in the Marlins' batting order nearly every day. He is seventh in the NL with 410 PA.

The Marlins' pitching is headlined by Josh Johnson, the 25-year old ace of the staff. He is 8-2 with a 2.74 ERA, a 2.90 FIP and a 3.37 x-FIP. Over the last two years, Johnson's winning percentage (.833, 15-3) is the best in baseball among pitchers with 15 or more decisions.

Closer Matt Lindstrom struggled mightily (6.52 ERA, 1.897 WHIP) but is currently on the disabled list. The remainder of the Marlins' bullpen has performed well, led by flamethrowers. Leo Nunez, Dan Meyer, Kiko Calero, and Renyel Pinto have combined for 151 strikeouts in 149.1 innings.

Over the past few years, the Marlins' reputation has been that of a poor defensive club. They have improved this year somewhat, but have been sunk defensively by unlikely source. As Juan Rodriguez of the Florida Sun-Sentinel reported, the defensive problem has been on the mound:

"At most of the positions [the Marlins] don't look anything way above average or below average with the exception of pitchers," said Ben Jedlovec, a research analyst at BIS. "Their pitching staff, when you break it down by the individual components, they haven't been holding runners very well. A lot of guys have been taking off based on the pitcher. ... What really weighs down the pitching staff is that they haven't been fielding the position very well."

Marlins pitchers have committed 10 errors, tied for fourth most in the NL, even though they do not field as many balls as the average pitcher.

2009 Marlins
Record	49-47, 3rd NL East, 6 GB
Pythag Record	46-50 (10th in NL)
Runs Scored	4.49/gm (5th in NL)
wOBA	.317 (12th in NL)
Runs Allowed	4.66/gm (9th in NL)
FIP	4.07 (7th in NL)
Defensive Efficiency	.692 (19th in NL)

**********

Fish Stripes is the SB Nation Marlins blog. Here are some recent posts:

Craig noted the Marlins shared a hotel in San Diego with some attendees of Comic-Con
A look at the Marlins' recent struggles -- well the non-Hanley Marlins -- with runners in scoring position
Why was Gaby Sanchez called up?

**********

The Dodgers won two of three in Florida back in May, including a near no-hitter by Friday's starter, Clayton Kershaw.

May 15: Dodgers 6, Marlins 4

May 16: Marlins 6, Dodgers 3

May 17: Dodgers 12, Marlins 5

**********

Pitching Probables

Friday: Clayton Kershaw (8-5, 3.41 FIP) vs. Josh Johnson (8-2, 2.90 FIP)

Saturday: Hiroki Kuroda (3-5, 3.83 FIP) vs. Rick VandenHurk (1-0, 7.12 FIP)

Sunday: Jason Schmidt (1-0, 4.72 FIP) vs. Chris Volstad (7-9, 4.78 FIP)

I will be there on Sunday covering the game.

The Braves like to trade first round draft picks

gondeee — Sat, 18 Jul 2009 13:00:13 -0000

Are you a big fan of Jason Heyward? How about Cody Johnson? Do you think they'll be in an Atlanta Braves uniform one day? And for how long? Since 2000, how many first round picks would you say the Braves still have in their organization? Counting first rounders and supplemental first rounders here is a list:

2000 - 2 first rounders, 2 supplemental - Adam Wainwright traded to the Cardinals
2001 - 2 first rounders, 1 supplemental - Macay McBride traded to the Tigers, Richard Lewis traded to the Cubs
2002 - 1 first, 1 supplemental - Jeff Francoeur traded to the Mets, Dan Meyer to the Athletics
2003 - 2 supplemental - Luis Atilano traded to the Nationals, Jarrod Saltalamacchia to the Rangers
2004 - no first rounders
2005 - 1 first, 1 supplemental - Joey Devine traded to the Athletics, Beau Jones to the Rangers
2006 - 1 first, 2 supplemental - no trades, but Steve Evarts has already been released
2007 - 1 first, 1 supplemental - Jon Gilmore traded to the White Sox

Of all the first rounders and supplemental first rounders we've drafted since 2000, only one, Kelly Johnson, is still in the majors with Atlanta, and he is on the disabled list. Furthermore, he and Chipper Jones (1990) are the only ones still in the organization of those first rounders drafted before 2006. From 2000 to 2007, 10 of the Braves 18 first round picks were traded!

I'm not sure if there is any analysis that can be gleaned from this list, other than the fact that the Braves certainly aren't afraid to use their prospects to acquire major league talent. I'm not all that familiar with other organization's minor league talent, but I would posit that there isn't another organization that comes close to trading away more than 50% of their first round picks over the course of nine years.

Wednesday Roto Highlights - Brewers love YoGa

RJK — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 17:00:21 -0000

More photos » by Duane Burleson - AP

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Leo Nunez - He's battled an ankle injury this past week but notched 2 saves, hit 96 on the gun, and K'd 4 in 2.1 innings since Marlins closer Matt Linstrom went down. He and Dan Meyer are sharing the closer job for the time being but Nunez is the righty and looks to get the majority of the chances.

Hank Blalock - Despite the low batting average I've really enjoyed owning Blalock this year. If you play his matchups correctly he can be a very effective spot starter. Against righties he's hit 14 HR in 165 AB. You can find uses for a 1B/3B eligible player with numbers like that.

Adam Wainwright - I was shocked to see Wainwright come out for the 9th inning in Tuesday's game against San Francisco. He had just given up the tying run in the 8th and was at 105 pitches. All he did in the 9th was strike out the side (all swinging) after giving up a leadoff single to Edgar Renteria. It was an ace-like performance with 12 Ks and allowed the Cardinals the opportunity for a win despite being shut down by Matt Cain. He still walks a few too many and isn't efficient enough to regularly go deep into games but the Cards figure to improve their offense with trades and the back end of their bullpen has been strong. Wainwright is a solid #3 fantasy starter.

Ricky Romero - I'm kicking myself after letting Romero get picked up in my shallow 12 team mixed league yesterday. He dominated MLB's leader in runs scored (the Rays) Tuesday morning with 8 innings of shutout ball giving up 4 hits and striking out 7. If you take out his 2 starts after coming off the DL (impossible I know but just follow me) he'd be 6-1 with 1.85 ERA. Those 2 starts were at Baltimore, when they were raking, and at home against Boston. He's also gone at least 6.1 innings in every start since that 5/31 start vs. Boston. If he's somehow available in your mixed league stop reading this and go get him.

Yovani Gallardo -YoGa has quickly turned into a fantasy #1 starting pitcher. With his 12 K's over 7 innings on Tuesday his K/9 now sits at an impressive 9.80. Only Verlander, Vazquez, and Lincecum best him in that category. I started thinking about keepers on my 12 team mixed keeper league and began wondering if Gallardo is a definate keeper. If he keeps up his pace he should be a 3rd-6th rounder in '10. He just turned 23 this February.

Hanley Ramirez - He's not giving up the title of consensus #1 fantasy pick to Pujols without a fight. Ramirez is on a tear right now with a 33 RBI June. He's hit .360 since May 1st and looks to finish the year with .330+, 100 runs, 30 HR, 100 RBI, and 25 steals. He's currently 5th ranked in Yahoo's player rankings.

Cody Ross - Ross isn't finding himself on too many mixed league waiver wires these days. He's up to 48 RBI and 14 HR and on pace to up his career highs in HR (22) and RBI (73)

Johnny Damon - With the short porch in right field, Damon's on his way to a new career high (26) in HR. He's currently at career high levels in SLG, OPS, and HR/AB. To begin the year we might have expected a 15/25 year but Damon's flipping his career norms and may end up with a 25/15. Either way, he's providing strong #2 OF numbers.

FYI, you can follow me on Twitter (@RyanKaltenbach). I know, so original. I swear I was doing it at least 2 weeks before everyone else . . . . meaning February.

Poll

Given what you've seen of Yovani Gallardo where do you project him being drafted in '10?

3rd-4th Round

15 votes

5th-6th Round

22 votes

7th Round and beyond

4 votes

41 votes | Poll has closed

MLB Trade Rumors: Matt Capps To The Marlins?

raygu — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 16:00:22 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

5 months ago: Pittsburgh Pirates closer Matt Capps throws in the ninth inning against the Kansas City Royals in a baseball game in Pittsburgh Friday, June 26, 2009. Capps got his 17th save of the season in the 5-3 Pirates win. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

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Yesterday afternoon, rumors spread that the Pirates are not done cleaning house and that they may make closer Matt Capps available in a trade for a power arm. The first team that came to mind was the Marlins who are back in the NL East race even though closer Matt Lindstrom is on the DL.

The Marlins have a couple of pitching prospects in Ryan Tucker and Jose Ceda who they could trade to get Matt Capps. Here is what John Sickels from www.minorleagueball.com had to say about Tucker and Ceda:

Ryan Tucker, RHP, Grade B: He needs another pitch if he wants to start, but the ceiling stands out as excellent.
Jose Ceda, RHP, Grade B: Yet another high ceiling arm with command issues. Also has to watch weight.

The Marlins would use Capps to close with Leo Nunez and Dan Meyer handling the setup duties. In return, the Pirates would get one of Tucker, who should start at the major league level or Ceda, who could replace Capps as the Pirates closer in 2010.

In 2008, Tucker pitched for AA Carolina, appearing in 25 games, including 12 starts, throwing 91 innings with a 74/37 K/BB ratio, and a 1.58 ERA. This year, he has appeared in only 2 games, both in April, making me thing he is injured.

The fact that the Pirates received Joel Hanrahan from the Nationals leads me to beleive they will deal Capps, and allow Hanrahan to close in 2009.

Poll

Is Ryan Tucker or Jose Ceda enough to get closer Matt Capps?

Yes, as long as the Marlins take on Capps contract.

67 votes

No, the Marlins are in the NL East race and need a veteran closer. The Pirates should ask for another prospect.

119 votes

186 votes | Poll has closed

Washington Nationals' Bullpen Spoils Scott Olsen's Return...Florida Marlins Win, 4-2 Final.

Ed Chigliak — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 03:33:24 -0000

More photos » by Lynne Sladky - AP

5 months ago: Washington Nationals' relief pitcher Ron Villone, right, hands the ball to manager Manny Acta, left, as he is relieved in the eighth inning against the Florida Marlins during a baseball game at Land Shark Stadium in Miami Monday, June 29, 2009. The Marlins won 4-2. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)

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-- Bottom of the 8th, 2-2 tie...Washington's left-handed reliever Ron Villone takes the mound...

- "Oh Geez. It's Villone." - ROSCOEtheNATSfan.

- "...goodcallwemaygoextrasfishnothittinglefties........WRONG" - cat daddy 3000.

- "VILL2.45NE!!" - e chigliak

- "I never thought I'd say this...but...This is not a good idea…" - Mezza

There was a time when DC's lefty reliever Ron Villone was known around here as Ron VILL0.00NE. The Nationals' 39-year-old left-hander joined the roster on May 7th as part of "Acting" DC GM Mike Rizzo's desperate attempt to rebuild Washington's bullpen after some ugly early struggles. Villone reeled off 17.0 scoreless innings before he allowed the first run to cross while he stood on the mound. Since giving up the first, however, Villone's allowed 7 runs, 5 earned, in 5.0 IP, in which he's given up 11 hits, and the tailspin continued tonight as he allowed a leadoff double, sac bunt and sac fly by Florida to put the Marlins ahead 3-2 in the bottom of the eighth inning of a game Washington's returning starter Scott Olsen had held tied from the fourth inning on...

Marlins win, 4-2 final.

Miss The Game, The DC Faithful Were Watching...(And They Saw It Coming)...

BACKPAGE:

• Olsen's Return Makes Smarty's Snub Hurt Less...

• Ryan Zimmerma--THE KIDS CALL HIM ZIM!! THE KIDS CALL HIM ZIM!!!

• Can We Go Back To The AL And Away From The Marlins...And Bonifacio...

For The Completists, Full Game Report After The Jump...

DWDT: 15.

Nationals now 22-52.

BACKPAGE:

Olsen's Return Makes Smarty's Snub Hurt Less...

Shairon Martis, according to Washington Post writer Chico Harlan's Nationals Journal post entitled, "Wait! Martis Demoted To Class AAA, Stammen Back In Rotation", "declined comment...after learning the news of his demotion," yesterday afternoon. Martis was sent down(up really?) to the Nationals' Triple-A affiliate in Syracuse, NY to make room for the returning DC lefty Scott Olsen. After working his way back from what was officially called "shoulder tendenitis", Olsen took the mound tonight for the first time since May 16, and threw 94 pitches, 66 for strikes, over 7.0 IP in which he allowed 6 hits and 2 ER while collecting 7 K's.

After Ryan Zimmerman's leadoff HR and Wil Nieves' two-out RBI single in the second inning off Marlins' right-hander Ricky Nolasco, Olsen allowed Florida to tie it at 2-2 in the third. Brett Carroll doubled, moved to third on a sac bunt by Nolasco and scored on a one-out RBI single by Chris Coghlan to make 2-1, and Emilio Bonifacio tripled before Hanley Ramirez singled to tie it at 2-2. Olsen retired the Marlins in order in the 4th, 5th and 6th and then gave up a two-out single in the seventh before popping Carroll up to center to strand the only baserunner he allowed after the third. Nolasco (W, 5-6) was nasty as well, striking out 8 in 8.0 IP in which he surrenders just 4 hits and 2 ER. Ron Villone takes the loss, (L, 3-5), and Julian Tavarez gets a talking-to and a finger in his chest from DC Manager Manny Acta after Tavarez walks 3 and gives up a 1 hit and 1 ER in just 0.1 IP. Marlins' relievers Dan Meyer and Leo Nunez get it right, holding and saving Nolasco's hard-earned W.

Ryan Zimmerma--THE KIDS CALL HIM ZIM!! THE KIDS CALL HIM ZIM!!!

Ryan Zimmerman had hit just 2 HR's in his last 33 games, with one on May 22nd at home against the Orioles and his last HR before tonight on June 13th in Tampa Bay, Florida. Ricky Nolasco started Ryan Zimmerman with a fastball in the second, and Zimmerma--THE KIDS CALL HIM ZIM!! THE KIDS CALL HIM ZIM!!! launched it to left and into the second deck above the outdated out-of-town scoreboard for what was, at the time, a 1-0 Nationals' lead. Zimmerman finishes tonight's game 1 for 4 with a .298 AVG, 13 HR's and 44 RBI's in '09.

Can We Go Back To The AL And Away From The Marlins...And Bonifacio...

Emilio Bonifacio was 8 for 23 for a .348 AVG before tonight's game, with a .400 OBP, .565 SLG, .965 OPS, 7 runs scored, 1 triple, 1 HR, 4 RBI's and 4 steals in 6 games against the same Washington Nationals who traded him (along with 2 prospects) to Florida in exchange for tonight's starting pitcher, Scott Olsen, and right fielder, Josh Willingham. Bonifacio went 3 for 4 tonight, with a triple, a run scored, and the game-winning sac-fly RBI in the eighth. The Marlins are now 7-0 against the Washington Nationals in 2009.

GAME REPORT...

Washington Nationals At Florida Marlins. Game 74 or 75 of 162.

Willie Harris swings over a slider inside that drops out of thin air for Ricky Nolasco’s first K of the game. Cristian Guzman pops out to Hanley Ramirez for out No. 2. Nick Johnson skies one to Cody Ross in center and the Nationals go down in order...Groundball to Nick Johnson from Marlins’ leadoff hitter Chris Coghlan. Emilio Bonifacio grounds out to his replacement at second, Anderson Hernandez. Scott Olsen challenges Hanley Ramirez with a fastball inside and has a laser hit by his feet for a two-out single. Willie Harris gets under Jorge Cantu’s pop fly to center and makes the catch to end the first.

First pitch fastball to Ryan Zimmerma---THE KIDS CALL HIM ZIM!! THE KIDS CALL HIM ZIM!!! HR to left and into the second deck!! 1-0 Nationals. Adam Dunn flies out to Brett Carroll in right. Josh Willingham hammers a ground rule double to center, one bounce and over the wall. Ricky Nolasco shatters Anderson Hernandez’s bat, inducing a weak grounder back to the mound, Hammer takes third. Wil Nieves sends a dribbler past Nolasco, Dan Uggla tries to shuffle it to first with his glove, no dice, Hammer scores, Nieves safe, 2-0 DC. Olsen K’s looking and heads back to the mound...Scott Olsen’s 2-2 change is unhittable, Dan Uggla K’s trying. Cody Ross flies to right center, where Josh Willingham makes the grab. Ronny Paulino pushes Willingham back to the track, the Hammer has it, 2-0 DC after two.

Willie Harris hasn’t figured out Nolasco’s bender yet, swinging K no. 2 for the first out of the third. Cristian Guzman watches a two-strike bender drop onto the outside corner for a called strike three. Nick Johnson lines out to Carroll in right to end the Nationals’ third...Brett Carroll blasts a double to the gap in left center, and takes third on Ricky Nolasco’s sac bunt. Chris Coghlan singles in a run with a line drive to right, 2-1 DC. Wil Nieves nails Coghlan trying to steal second with a perfect throw. Emilio Bonifacio triples off the left field wall and scores on a single up the middle from Hanley Ramirez, 2-2 ballgame. Jorge Cantu flies out to Dunn to end the third.

Ryan Zimmerman pops the first pitch of the fourth up over home, Ronny Paulino makes the catch. Adam Dunn stares a two-strike curve onto the outside edge. Josh Willingham gets a single through Bonifacio’s glove at third and into left. Anderson Hernandez drills one to the mound, Nolasco stabs it and throws to first...Dan Uggla K’s looking at a curve that he thinks is inside. Cody Ross lines to right, Willingham makes a shoestring grab to rob Ross. Ronny Paulino grounds to short, Guzman backhands, jumps up and makes the throw, 2-2 after four.

Wil Nieves grounds the first pitch to Bonifacio at third. Scott Olsen pops out to Brett Carroll in fair territory down the line in right. Willie Harris grounds out to Jorge Cantu at first to end DC’s fifth...Brett Carroll swings a foot over a 1-2 change from Scott Olsen. RIcky Nolasco K’s swinging, and Chris Coghlan flies out to Willie Harris in center to end the fifth.

Cristian Guzman grounds out to Jorge Cantu at first to start the sixth. Nick Johnson flies out to Chris Coghlan in the left field corner. Ryan Zimmerman grounds out to short, Hanley handles it...Emilio Bonifacio pops out behind second. Hanley Ramirez is looking fastball when he gets a 2-2 change and K’s. Jorge Cantu K’s swinging through a fastballl upstairs!!!

Adam Dunn works the count full against Nolasco, and K’s swinging over a slider down the pipe. Josh Willingham lines out to right. Two-strike change in the dirt and Anderson Hernandez K’s swinging...Dan Uggla grounds to Zimmerman at third. Cody Ross K’s swinging. Ronny Paulino hits a two-out single to second. Brett Carroll lifts a 2-0 pitch to center, Willie Harris makes the grab.

Wil Nieves rips one all the way to the track in left center, but Cody Ross gets there. Elijah Dukes rips a line drive to Ross. Willie Harris hasn’t been able to figure out Nolasco’s slider all night, and he K’s again...Reliever Ron Villone faces pinch hitter Wes Helms, who doubles to right just inside the first base line. Chris Coghlan gets the sac bunt down to move pinch runner Alejandro De Aza to third. Emilio Bonifacio flies out to center, De Aza tags and scores. 3-2 Marlins. Julian Tavarez comes on to face Hanley Ramirez, and he gives up a double on the first pitch. Tavarez walks Jorge Cantu to get to Dan Uggla. Tavarez walks Dan Uggla. Julian Tavarez walks Cody Ross to force in a run. 4-2 Florida. Paulino hits a hotshot to third, Zimmerman takes the force at second to end the threat.

Dan Meyer vs Cristian Guzman. Guzman grounds out to Cantu at first. Nick Johnson singles over short in his trademark style. NJ™. Ryan Zimmerman flies out to right center. Adam Dunn rips a line drive through the dramatic shift, Johnson takes third. Dan Meyer’s done. Leo Nunez up next. Nunez vs Willingham. Hammer flies to center and Cody Ross makes the catch. Ballgame. Marlins win, 4-2 final.

Nationals now 22-52.

Fish Wrap - Marlins 5 Orioles 2

craig — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 08:09:26 -0000

More photos » by Lynne Sladky - AP

6 months ago: Florida Marlins' closing pitcher Dan Meyer, left, celebrates with catcher John Baker, right, after they defeated the Baltimore Orioles 5-2 during an interleague baseball game at Land Shark Stadium in Miami, Wednesday, June 24, 2009. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)

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Ricky Nolasco was dealing tonight and when Ricky has his stuff working he can shut any team down, the Orioles were no exception.

Nolasco went seven innings, gave up 0 ER on 7 hits along with 7 strikeouts and only one walk. When Ricky is on, he is an absolute pleasure to watch.

Cody spent most of the night hitting doubles and driving in Danny and their 1-2 punch, would prove to be more than enough for a quality Nolasco start. Actually, Hanley's first inning single would have been enough if everything would have gone right in the fielding department. Bonifacio screwed things up for both teams in the game. For the Marlins he committed a throwing error that allowed runs to score. For the Orioles he caused them to make errors, so he could score. I guess he about broke even.

Dan Meyer came on to close the game in the ninth. Meyer promptly showed he didn't know the first thing about closing games. He pitched a 1-2-3 inning on 11 pitches with 7 of them for strikes. Doesn't he know that the job of the closer is to put the tying runs on and bring the go ahead run to the plate? I mean he didn't even bother to walk the leadoff hitter. I thought he was a better student of the game than that. Oh well.

The Marlins are above .500 for the first time since May 12.

All in all, just another routine Marlins win.

Phillies vs Marlins: May 25-27

Matt Swartz — Mon, 25 May 2009 22:02:06 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

Chooch wants Marlin! (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

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It was a month ago that I wrote that the Marlins, then 11-4, were a fluke and due for a regression. They were in first place and the Phillies were a measly 6-8. The Phillies swept the Marlins and are now 24-18, in first place themselves, and the Marlins have barely won any games at all since then and sit in fourth place at 20-25. This article will not have quite the detail of that article, as I'm in the Baseball Prospectus Idol competition and need to start preparing for next week's submission (don't forget to vote!), but I'll link to that old article here. A number of the players have changed, but I think I have the current rosters right. I've also updated the season stats.

Monday will pit Jamie Moyer against Chris Volstad. Volstad has been solid this year, with an ERA of 3.64. He has had significant BABIP luck (.244) but also been unlucky with homeruns (18% HR/Flyball), so overall he probably should be in the low 4's. That will be the toughest game of the series given Moyer's recent struggles. On Tuesday, the Phillies send Joe Blanton to the mound against Andrew Miller. Miller has been wild this year walking over 5 per 9, without striking out many more than 6 per 9. He's been lucky on homeruns per flyball, and will regress...hopefully against us! On Wednesday, the Phils sent Brett Myers out against Hayden Penn. Hayden Penn has only started one game this year (a disastrous start against the Diamondbacks five days ago), but with Nolasco sent to AAA and Anibal Sanchez on the disabled list, Penn will get another shot.

MATCH-UPS:
Monday, 7:05-- Jamie Moyer (L) vs Chris Volstad (R)
Tuesday, 7:05-- Joe Blanton (R) vs Andrew Miller (L)
Wednesday, 7:05-- Brett Myers (R) vs Hayden Penn (R)

See below the jump for detailed player statistics and splits, as well as updated batter/pitcher matchups.

MARLINS

LINE UP

1) 3B Emilio Bonifacio (S): .258/.296/.311

projection average (proj): .260/.315/.340
projected BB/PA (bb): 6.5%
projected K/AB (k): 21%
career gb% (gb): 56%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 5%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 14%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): He gets a lot of infield hits, so the infield has to play in, so his groundballs and line drives find their way through more. He also avoids infield popups. So he should be able to hit around .330 on balls in play.
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): about average all around
righty/lefty (r/l): thus far he has 16 K's and 1 BB against LHP as RHB.
home/away (h/a): thus far very poor on the road: 5.0 k/bb instead of 2.0.
pull/opposite (p/o): spreads ball around very well from both sides
anything else (other): none

2) LF Jeremy Hermida (L): .271/.383/.387

proj: .270/.355/.445
bb: 11%
k: 25%
gb: 45%
iff: 9%
ifh: 6%
babip: projected pretty high but doesn't seem to profile as such at all
s/c/z: poor eye but average contact
r/l: .793 vs .741; 2.2 vs 3.0 k/bb
h/a: .729/.828: better on road
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

3) SS Hanley Ramirez (R):

proj: .310/.385/.530
bb: 11%
k: 18%
gb: 43%
iff: 11%
ifh: 10%
babip: excellent babip on groundballs with speed, excellent babip on line drives since he has power and hits deep liners
s/c/z: good eye and above average contact
r/l: .886/.975; 1.9 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: .924/.890
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against groundballers and relatively weaker against power pitchers than others

4) 1B Jorge Cantu (R): .276/.335/.487

proj: .275/.325/.455
bb: 6.5%
k: 19%
gb: 39%
iff: 9%
ifh: 5%
babip: average overall
s/c/z: hacks a lot, makes average contact
r/l: not much of a split
h/a: much better at home, especially in terms of power and babip
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

5) C John Baker (L): .284/.371/.509

proj: .265/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 23%
gb: 50%
iff: 8%
ifh: 4%
babip: projected to be pretty high (.320ish) but he doesn't seem to profile as a high babip guy to me
s/c/z: swings rarely and makes good contact, okay eye
r/l: 1.3 vs 2.5 k/bb, thus far has made weak contact vs lhp
h/a: .908/.763
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

6) 2B Dan Uggla (R): .205/.328/.424

proj: .260/.340/.475
bb: 10%
k: 26%
gb: 37%
iff: 8%
ifh: 9%
babip: pretty good on groundballs, projected to be average
s/c/z: pretty good eye but poor contact
r/l: .854/.761
h/a: .830/.833 but slight improvement in k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

7) RF Cody Ross (R): .239/.292/.426

proj: .265/.330/.485
bb: 8%
k: 24%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 4%
babip: average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot, but doesn't make good contact
r/l: .729/.941; 3.7 vs 2.2 k/bb
h/a: not real splits
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

8) Chris Coghlan (L): .191/.291/.255

proj: .260/.330/.380
bb: 8.5%
k: 15%
gb: 55%
iff: 30% (in first 10 flyballs)
ifh: 6%
babip: high groundball rate but high popout rate; projected around average
s/c/z: not a great eye, average contact
r/l: not much of a split in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: seems to be a slight pull hitter but tough to know
other: none

BENCH

C Ronny Paulino (R): .232/.348/.357

proj: .265/.325/.405
bb: 8%
k: 19%
gb: 47%
iff: 6%
ifh: 8%
babip: average overall
s/c/z: good eye and somewhat good contact
r/l: .643/.928 career. 2.9 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .736/.698
p/o: hits to opposite field slightly more
other: struggles against power pitchers

1B Ross Gload (L): .279/.375/.377

proj: .280/.325/.405
bb: 6%
k: 12%
gb: 56%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip:
s/c/z: good eye and good contact but swings a lot, and he sees lots of strikes.
r/l: does as well against lefties in his experiences against him, but he doesn't bat against them rarely and the lack of splits is probably selection bias as he only gets to face weaker lefties
h/a: .775/.713 but similar k/bb numbers
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

IF Wes Helms (R): .212/.276/.250

proj: .255/.320/.400
bb: 7%
k: 24%
gb: 40%
iff: 6%
ifh: 6%
babip: a little above average as he avoids infield flies
s/c/z: okay eye poor contact
r/l: 4.0 vs 2.1 k/bb; .712/.815 ops
h/a: .776/.717 ops
p/o: slight pull hitter but spreads ball around well
other: none

C Brett Hayes (R): 1 for 1 (single)

proj: .230/.280/.350
bb: 5%
k: 21%
gb: about 40% in minors
iff: low 20% range in minors
ifh: ?
babip: seems to hit the ball hard but make poor contact and pop out a lot; probably below average
s/c/z: ?
r/l: not enough info
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

DISABLED LIST: UTL Alfredo Amezaga (S): .217/.261/.261

proj: .260/.320/.355
bb: 7%
k: 15%
gb: 49%
iff: 14%
ifh: 8%
babip: speedy but doesn't make really solid contact; average overall
s/c/z: average eye but above average contact
r/l: .692 vs .519; 1.8 vs 3.7 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split
p/o: definite pull hitter as righty; slight pull hitter as lefty
other: none

SENT TO AAA: OF Brett Carroll (R): .143/.217/.143

proj: .235/.290/.400
bb: 6.5%
k: 26%
gb: 42%
iff: 6%
ifh: 14%
babip: not much info to tell; projected below average
s/c/z: free swinger who makes very bad contact
r/l: not enough info
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

SENT TO AAA: CF Cameron Maybin (R): .202/.280/.310

proj: .275/.345/.430
bb: 9%
k: 30%
gb: 53%
iff: 5%
ifh: 9%
babip: very speedy so probably above average but not as above average as the projections suggest
s/c/z: average eye, poor contact
r/l: not enough info
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

ROTATION

MONDAY OPPONENT: Chris Volstad (R): 3.64 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 7.45 K/9, 1.5 HR/9, 4.64 FIP, 47% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 53%
pitches: 67% fb, 24% cb, 9% ch
r/l: not much of a split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but not much info

Volstad vs Phillies:

Rollins: 4/9, 1 2B, 2 BB, 0 K
Howard: 2/9, 1 HR, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Utley: 2/7, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K, 2 HBP
Victorino: 1/10, 1 3B, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 1/8, 0 BB, 4 K
Ruiz: 2/4, 1 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

TUESDAY STARTER: Andrew Miller (L): 4.94 ERA, 5.3 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 0.4 HR/9, 4.12 FIP, 50% GB

proj avg: 4.60 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 75% fb, 16% sl, 5% cb, 4% ch, 0.1% ct
r/l: 1.3 vs 1.5 k/bb; .841 vs .699 ops though-- probably selection bias as managers avoided putting lefties against him
h/a: .792 vs .823

Miller vs Phillies:

Utley: 3/9, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 4 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Rollins: 1/11, 2 BB, 0 K
Howard: 1/10, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 SF
Victorino: 5/11, 1 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 0/6, 1 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Feliz: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/3, 1 BB, 3 K
Coste: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 1 BB

WEDNESDAY STARTER: Hayden Penn (R): 6.97 ERA, 7.0 BB/9, 11.3 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 4.50 FIP, 52.5% GB

proj avg: 5.20 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 42%
pitches: 67% fb, 17% ch, 15% cb
r/l: 0.8 vs 0.9 k/bb; 1.135 vs .825 ops (151 vs 172 pa)
h/a: 1.1 vs 0.7 k/bb; 1.003 vs .948 ops (127 vs 196 pa)

Penn vs. Phillies:

Howard: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 1/1, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Werth: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 1 HBP
Dobbs: 1 BB
Feliz: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US: Josh Johnson (R): 2.67 ERA, 2.1 BB/9, 7.9 K/9, 0.5 HR/9, 2.92 FIP, 55% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 7.6 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 47%
pitches: 67% fb, 24% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.7 vs 1.7 k/bb; .666 vs .746 ops
h/a: 2.4 vs 1.8 k/bb; .734 vs .676 ops though

Johnson vs. Phillies:

Rollins: 5/20, 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K
Howard: 7/19, 1 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Utley: 5/16, 3 BB, 2 K, 1 SF, 0 XBH
Victorino: 3/16, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 3/12, 1 2B, 0 BB, 6 K
Coste: 4/8, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 2/4, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Werth: 1/4, 2 BB, 3 K
Ruiz: 0/4, 1 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/2

NOT FACING US: Sean West (L): 3.60 ERA, 7.2 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 3.55 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 6.00 ERA, 6.6 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 40-50% in minors, 40% higher up
pitches: ?
r/l: seems to have pretty deep split in minors but tough to know
h/a: not enough info

West: has not faced any Phillies

BULLPEN

CL Matt Lindstrom (R): 6.50 ERA, 7.0 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 5.09 FIP, 47% GB

proj avg: 3.90 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 0.6 HR/9
gb: 47%
pitches: 77% fb, 19% sl, 3% ch, 1% cb
r/l: 2.4 vs 1.9 k/bb; .621 vs .714 ops
h/a: .623 vs .704 ops; 3.2 vs 1.5 k/bb

Lindstrom vs Phillies:

Victorino: 2/7, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/4, 1 BB, 1 K
Werth: 2/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 0/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 1/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 2/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 1 BB
Stairs: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Leo Nunez (R): 3.63 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 7.25 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.89 FIP, 44% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 37%
pitches: 61% fb, 20% ch, 19% sl
r/l: 3.4 vs 1.3 k/bb; .727 vs .888 ops
h/a: 2.0 vs 2.3 k/bb; .731 vs .868 ops

Nunez vs Phillies:

Stairs: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Bruntlett: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 1 BB

Kiko Calero (R): 2.42 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 11.3 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.39 FIP, 25% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 5.0 BB/9, 9.5 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 66% fb, 29% sl, 5% ch
r/l: 3.4 vs 1.8 k/bb; .597 vs .791 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Calero vs Phillies:

Feliz: 3/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 1/2, 1 2B, 2 BB (2 IBB), 1 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Coste: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Stairs: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 1 SF
Rollins: 1 SF
Victorino: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Dan Meyer (L): 2.79 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 10.7 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 3.72 FIP, 23% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 26%
pitches: 64% fb, 17% sl, 19% ch
r/l: 1.2 vs 1.8 k/bb; .913 vs .985 ops (selection bias)
h/a: 1.0 vs 1.9 k/bb; .964 vs .908

Meyer vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 1/5, 1 3B, 0 BB, 2 K
Stairs: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1 BB
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Burke Badenhop (R): 5.75 ERA, 3.5 BB/9 ,8.4 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 3.74 FIP, 50% GB

proj avg: 4.90 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 5.6 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 71% fb, 15% sl, 14% ch
r/l: 4.8 k/bb vs rhb, 0.7 k/bb vs lhb; also had huge splits in minors
h/a: not enough info

Badenhop vs. Phillies:

Coste: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Brian Sanches (R): 0.00 ERA, 1.5 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.81 FIP, 37.5% GB

proj avg: 4.70 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 8.2 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 49% fb, 22% sl, 18% sf, 6% ch, 5% cb
r/l: 1.8 vs 1.1 k/bb; .896 ops both ways
h/a: 1.1 vs 2.1 k/bb; 1.004 vs .745 ops

Sanches vs Phillies:

Bruntlett: 1 BB

Christopher Leroux (R): no major league statistics

proj avg: 5.70 ERA, 4.9 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.6 HR/9
gb: 50% about in minors but just in low minors
pitches: ?
r/l: seems better against righties actually
h/a: not enough info

Leroux: has not faced any Phillies

DISABLED LIST: Renyel Pinto (L): 2.53 ERA, 5.1 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.32 FIP, 30% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 5.3 BB/9, 8.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 42%
pitches: 61% fb, 32% ch, 8% sl
r/l: 1.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; .680 vs .744 ops (selection bias again)
h/a: .675 vs .734 ops; 1.3 vs 1.9 k/bb

Pinto vs Phillies:

Howard: 2/12, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 7 K
Utley: 5/8, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 1 K, 3 HBP
Victorino: 2/9, 1 HR, 0 BB, 3 K
Rollins: 1/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 2/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 1 BB

DISABLED LIST: Anibal Sanchez (R): 5.79 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 6.9 K/9, 1.65 HR/9, 5.38 FIP, 39% GB

proj avg: 4.30 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 43%
pitches: 57% fb, 19% sl, 16% cb, 8% ch, 1% ct
r/l: .653 vs .780 ops; 2.2 vs 1.1 k/bb
h/a: .668 vs .782; 1.9 vs 1.1 k/bb

Sanchez vs Phillies:

Utley: 5/13, 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 BB, 3 K
Victorino: 3/12, 1 HR, 2 BB, 2 K
Howard: 4/8, 2 2B, 1 HR, 5 BB (1 IBB), 1 K
Rollins: 4/10, 1 BB, 2 K
Ruiz: 3/6, 2 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/5, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/4, 0 BB, 3 K
Coste: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Bruntlett: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 1 BB

DEMOTED TO AAA: Ricky Nolasco (R): 9.07 ERA, 2.7 BB/9, 7. K/9, 1.65 HR/9, 4.80 ERA, 32% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 2.2 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 5% fb, 27% cb, 16% sl, 5% sf, 1% ch
r/l: 5.1 vs 2.2 k/bb! .682 vs .811 ops
h/a: 3.9 vs 2.8 k/bb but .682 vs .811 ops

Nolasco vs Phillies:

Rollins: 5/19, 2 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Utley: 6/17, 1 2B, 2 BB, 2 K, 1 HBP
Howard: 3/13, 3 HR, 6 BB (4 IBB), 2 K
Victorino: 3/16, 2 2B, 0 BB, 3 K, 1 Sac
Coste: 3/9, 2 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Ruiz: 1/7, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Dobbs: 2/6, 0 BB, 3 K
Feliz: 0/6, 0 BB, 3 K
Werth: 1/4, 0 BB, 2 K

PHILLIES

LINE UP

1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S): .233/.280/.344

projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb. otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.

2) 2B Chase Utley (L): .297/.434/.580

proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters

3) LF Raul Ibanez (L): .352/.412/.739

proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none

4) 1B Ryan Howard (L): .256/.333/.512

proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep. also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though. probably above average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes. however, he is pretty good at distinguishing pulls from strikes despite the consensus on him. he makes terrible contact overall though
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!" in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably. his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp. he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip. i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road. very similar hr numbers. 2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position

5) RF Jayson Werth (R): .262/.358/.490

proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year

6) CF Shane Victorino (S): .269/.313/.429

proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year

7) 3B Pedro Feliz (R): .295/.367/.410

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes. swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home. likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related

8) Carlos Ruiz (R): .302/.421/.444

proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey. his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lot
s/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers, currently on DL with strained rib cage, probably longer than 15 days as originally thought

BENCH

C Chris Coste (R): .250/.319/.393

proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat

IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R): .118/.179/.235

proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb. he should be used as a counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

IF Greg Dobbs (L): .143/.250/.229

proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters. given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp. in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp. he should never see them. absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers

OF Matt Stairs (L): .286/.474/.536

proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency

OF John Mayberry (R): .250/.250/.750

proj: .235/.290/.415
bb: 6.5%
k: 27%
iff: around 15-20% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: hits ball hard but pops up a lot; probably a bit average but tough to know; projected below average
s/c/z: not enough info
r/l: batter against lefties, particularly at making contact, in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

ROTATION

MONDAY STARTER: Jamie Moyer (L): 7.62 ERA, 3.05 BB/9, 4.6 K/9, 2.6 HR/9, 7.21 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets

Moyer vs. Marlins:

Ramirez: 12/34, 1 3B, 4 HR, 3 BB (1 IBB), 3 K
Uggla: 7/32, 2 2B, 1 BB, 12 K
Ross: 6/29, 1 HR, 1 BB, 4 K, 1 HBP
Cantu: 6/21, 3 BB, 2 K
Hermida: 3/16, 1 HR, 3 BB, 3 K, 2 HBP
Helms: 4/10, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 2 K
Baker: 3/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Paulino: 4/8, 0 BB, 1 K

TUESDAY STARTER: Joe Blanton (R): 7.11 ERA, 3.45 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 1.8 HR/9, 5.40 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games

Blanton vs Marlins:

Cantu: 3/13, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Bonifacio: 2/7, 2 2B, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Baker: 1/3, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Uggla: 0/3, 1 BB, 1 K
Gload: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Hermida: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Ramirez: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Ross: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K

WEDNESDAY STARTER: Brett Myers (R): 4.34 ERA, 2.95 BB/9, 6.7 K/9, 2.3 HR/9, 6.22 FIP, 48% GB

proj avg: 4.15 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 47%
pitches: 48% fb, 23% cb, 18% sl, 9% ch, 1% ct, 0.2% sf
r/l: .788 vs .747 ops despite 3.1 vs 1.95 k/bb; main issue is much higher HR rate vs rhb, slightly higher babip vs them as well; does not seem to be selection bias
h/a: .738 vs .800 ops; 2.7 vs 2.15 k/bb; slightly higher HR rate at home, but that is probably park factors as he surrenders far more doubles on road
other: HR rate is bizarre-- very few pitchers have the HR/Flyball rate he does. My personal suspicion is that statistics that don't exhibit much persistence despite what common sense suggests only do not exhibit persistence specifically because players make adjustments. If you throw fastball after fastball on the outside corner on every 1-2 count, the hitters will respond by hitting singles to the opposite field over and over again and your BABIP will go up. However, pitchers learn to mix up their pitches and BABIP ends up lacking persistence due to the constant game theoretical reaction that pitchers and hitters take. For Myers, his bizarre refusal to use his curveball early in the game leaves him especially vulernable to RHB who know it isn't coming. A little game theoretical mixed strategy would probably allow him to finally live up to his peripherals which suggest a low HR rate and borderline ace stuff.

Myers vs. Marlins:

Uggla: 12/33, 1 2B, 1 3B, 4 HR, 2 BB, 8 K
Ramirez: 10/28, 3 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 6 K, 1 Sac
Hermida: 3/17, 3 BB, 7 K
Ross: 2/13, 1 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Cantu: 5/10, 2 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Bonifacio: 2/6, 2 BB, 3 K
Helms: 0/3, 1 BB, 2 K
Baker: 2/6, 1 BB, 1 K
Gload: 1/4, 2 BB, 0 K
Paulino: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT STARTING THIS WEEKEND: Cole Hamels (L): 4.68 ERA, 1.9 BB/9, 9.1 K/9, 1.9 HR/9, 4.52 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant. ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar. most likely he strikes out more at night.

Hamels vs Marlins:

Ramirez: 9/24, 6 2B, 3 BB, 7 K
Uggla: 3/23, 1 2B, 2 BB, 6 K, 1 SF
Helms: 6/18, 2 2B, 1 BB, 6 K, 1 SF
Ross: 4/19, 1 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Hermida: 4/19, 1 HR, 0 BB, 4 K
Cantu: 3/13, 3 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Baker: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K

J.A. Happ (L): 2.60 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 0.65 HR/9, 3.65 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

Happ vs Marlins:

Cantu: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Hermida: 3/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Ross: 2/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Uggla: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Ramirez: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Baker: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
Bonifacio: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Helms: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Paulino: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

BULLPEN

CL Brad Lidge (R): 9.15 ERA, 5.5 BB/9, 9.6 K/9, 2.75 HR/9, 6.96 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Lidge vs Marlins:

Helms: 3/10, 1 2B, 0 BB, 6 K, 1 SF
Paulino: 2/9, 0 BB, 3 K
Cantu: 1/5, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Ramirez: 1/5, 1 BB, 3 K
Uggla: 1/4, 2 BB, 1 K
Hermida: 2/3, 2 BB, 1 K
Baker: 1/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Bonifacio: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Ross: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K

Ryan Madson (R): 2.95 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 9.7 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 1.83 FIP, 39% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all

Madson vs Marlins:

Ramirez: 5/17, 2 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Uggla: 4/17, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Cantu: 2/7, 0 BB, 1 K
Helms: 0/6, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Ross: 1/5, 1 BB, 3 K
Hermida: 0/4, 2 BB (1 IBB), 2 K
Baker: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Gload: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Bonifacio: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Paulino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Scott Eyre (L): 3.48 ERA, 7.0 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 1.7 HR/9, 6.92 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Eyre vs Marlins:

Hermida: 0/3, 0 BB, 3 K
Bonifacio: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Helms: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Paulino: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Uggla: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Baker: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ramirez: 1 BB

Jack Taschner (L): 3.66 ERA, 6.4 BB/9, 4.6 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 5.89 FIP, 35.5% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 57% fb, 30% sl, 13% ch
r/l: 1.45 vs 2.2 k/bb; .754 vs .747-- large selection bias where he faces only very good lefties and not very good righties
h/a: .698 vs .797 ops; 2.1 vs 1.5 k/bb

Taschner vs Marlins:

Cantu: 2/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Ross: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Baker: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Gload: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Hermida: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Paulino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Uggla: 1 BB

Chad Durbin (R): 4.32 ERA, 4.7 BB/9, 7.9 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.99 FIP, 33% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise

Durbin vs Marlins:

Ramirez: 2/5, 1 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Baker: 1/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Ross: 1/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Uggla: 0/4, 1 BB, 1 K
Gload: 3/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Cantu: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Hermida: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Bonifacio: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Clay Condrey (R): 2.19 ERA, 3.3 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.53 FIP, 50% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

Condrey vs Marlins:

Ramirez: 2/9, 1 BB, 0 K
Uggla: 0/8, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Hermida: 1/6, 2 BB, 0 K
Cantu: 3/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Helms: 2/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Ross: 1/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Baker: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Bonifacio: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Paulino: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Gload: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chan Ho Park (R): 6.88 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 5.6 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.61 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

Park vs. Marlins:

Ramirez: 5/7, 1 HR, 2 BB, 0 K
Uggla: 1/6, 1 HR, 2 BB, 1 K
Hermida: 0/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Baker: 4/5, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Cantu: 3/5, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Bonifacio: 0/4, 0 BB, 2 K
Paulino: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Ross: 0/5, 0 BB, 2 K

SUSPENDED: J.C. Romero (L)

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB?9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

Romero vs Marlins:

Helms: 2/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Uggla: 1/1, 1 2B, 2 BB, 0 K
Cantu: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Hermida: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Ross: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Baker: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Bonifacio: 1 BB
Gload: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Paulino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ramirez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K