SB Nation - Kevin Cash

Tuesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 14:44:03 -0000

by Morry Gash - AP

Yadier Molina is hit by a pitch during the second inning Monday, extending Bush's lead on the franchise HBP list and moving him back into first place in the NL in 2009.

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Some things to read while being resourceful.

So, I took the day off yesterday to catch a game in Milwaukee, only my second of the season, but arrived to find a starting outfield of Frank Catalanotto, Corey Patterson and Jody Gerut, with Patterson, who has no business being on a major league roster, leading off. Rotoworld cited Patterson's presence in the leadoff spot as a suggestion that Ken Macha "either has no idea how runs are scored or he simply doesn't care any longer." Patterson went 0-for-4 with a strikeout and a GIDP in the ninth. Miller Park Drunk has ten links that should tell you everything you need to know about him.

At one point in the early innings, I turned to TheJay and said, "If ever there was a lineup begging to be no hit, it's this one." I think yesterday's lineup is right up there with the one Justin Verlander no-hit in 2007. Thankfully Jody Gerut was able to drop a double into left field. Brewer Paradise Lost thinks the Brewers should save a few million by allowing him to replace Mike Cameron in center field next season.

Of course, Carpenter hasn't needed much help to dominate the Brewers this season. As a team, the Crew has hit .173 against him and scored three runs in 23 innings.

At least Dave Bush pitched pretty well. He also hit Yadier Molina with a pitch, regaining a tie for the NL HBP lead.

Ryan Braun got a day off yesterday, but their appears to be a difference of opinion on the need and/or reason for it. Either way, expect Braun to start tonight against John Smoltz.

Fans in attendance tonight should also expect to see Corey Hart, who will be activated from the DL sometime today. After being held hitless in his first couple of days with Nashville, Hart collected five hits in the last two days, including a home run.

They should not expect to see Mike Cameron, however. Cameron strained his hamstring during a pinch hit appearance on Saturday and is expected to be out until Friday at the earliest.

Of course, the Brewers' reaction to Prince Fielder's walkoff home run on Sunday continues to pour in. If you haven't seen it yet (really?), here's a link to the video. I've added a new poll to the sidebar asking for your opinion, but here are some others:

D.J. Short of Circling the Bases says "don't be surprised to see Fielder catch one in the back or worse when he faces them next season."
Rob Neyer thought it was clever.
The Intricate Mess says "The Milwaukee Brewers might just be the coolest, hippest baseball team in the majors."
David Weathers said the Brewers were just trying to have some fun.
Giants bench coach Ron Wotus played the "disrespect" card.
Angels outfielder Torii Hunter spoke out against it, though why any of it is his business is unknown.
Giants beat reporter Andrew Baggarly has reactions from several people in the Giants' clubhouse.
MLB Notebook had no problem with it.

Meanwhile, there's a debate going on about Fielder's "clutchiness." In a note on the walkoff, David Pinto of Baseball Musings mentioned that Fielder doesn't hit many home runs late in games. Cyril Morong responded by crunching the numbers to show that Fielder's home run rate in the late innings is about on pace with the rest of baseball.

All the hubbub over the celebration overshadowed the Brewers' first triple play since 1999, and a great effort from both Braden Looper (who allowed one run over seven innings) and the bullpen (five pitchers each threw one scoreless inning to take the game to the 12th). One would think Looper would have plenty to tweet about, but his Twitter page has been inactive since his first Tweet on August 6.

For the last couple of days, the Brewer pitchers have finally held up their end of the 2009 bargain. UmpBump has the Brewers' WAR Pie from 2009, and it's pretty light on pitching contributions. Adam McCalvy wonders how much the Brewers miss former pitching coach Mike Maddux.

Meanwhile, the Brewers have added another reliever to the bullpen, calling up John Axford from AAA (FanShot) and releasing Jesus Colome to make room for him on the 40 man roster (FanShot). Aside from getting hurt, I'm not sure what Colome did to merit his release. David Pinto says they're tempting eternal damnation.

For the next few days, the Brewers will only go as far as the bottom half of their rotation can carry them. Yovani Gallardo is going to skip a start in an effort to keep his innings down this season. Thursday's day off means the Brewers can use a four man rotation for two turns and bring Gallardo back on his regular day against the Cubs next week.

Alcides Escobar was one of many Brewers to have a rough day yesterday, going 0-for-3 with a strikeout. Has your opinion on his 2010 outlook changed at all? Brewers Daily doesn't think he's the right choice for this team.

Again, there's no excuse for cheering against the Brewers at this point, but there is an upside when they lose: Andy Seiler's updated draft projections have the Brewers picking 13th.

In the minors:

John Sickels of Minor League Ball has a review of his top 20 preseason prospects in the Brewer organization.
FanGraphs has a preview of the AFL Peoria Javelinas, including Brewers Zach Braddock and Jonathan Lucroy. Also worth noting: AFL players will be required to wear the S100 helmets.
The Wisconsin Timber Rattlers closed out their season with a loss in Beloit yesterday, but several players are headed to instructional league.
The Appleton Post-Crescent has a look back at the Timber Rattlers' first season as a Brewer affiliate, which was successful pretty much everywhere except on the field.

On Power Rankings:

WhatifSports dropped the Brewers two spots to #18.
Baseball Digest Daily's ASTRO Rankings also dropped them two spots to #19.

Around baseball:

Cubs: Claimed pitcher Thomas Diamond off waivers from the Rangers.
Rockies: Released Russ Ortiz.
Yankees: Released catcher Kevin Cash.

Things could always be worse. Remember when the Brewers used to be consistently mentioned in the same breath as the Pirates? They clinched their 17th straight losing season yesterday.

I complained a lot about yesterday's lineup, and continue to do it today, but at one point BrewHaHeather turned to me and made an excellent point: "Would you really rather have Bill Hall in there?" Hall has looked a little better at times as a Mariner, but is still one of just five players in baseball this season with at least 200 at bats and more strikeouts than total bases.

Former Brewer farmhand Michael Brantley is having a pretty good September, and has hit safely in each of his first six games. The all time record for hitting streaks to start a career belongs to Juan Pierre, who hit in 16 straight in August of 2000. A hit in his next game would tie Trent Durrington and dozens of others for the 34th longest streak in major league history.

One more "could be worse" note: Aramark, the food services company that has found itself in hot water multiple times over labor issues, is also bad luck for several teams who use them. The Brewers do not.

On this day in 1999, three Brewer pitchers appeared in the game (Hideo Nomo, Mike Myers and David Weathers), and each allowed a home run to Steve Finley as the D-Backs beat the Brewers 9-1.

Happy birthday today to Mike Rivera, who turns 33. Hopefully he'll get the start tonight.

Drink up.

Jorge Posada and Catcher ERA

jscape2000 — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 17:10:29 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

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I will start this little diatribe by saying I don't like Catcher ERA. I don't like the idea of it. All of the usual caveats for ERA are present- it is extremely luck influenced, it doesn't tell me how good the guy is at recording outs, and it doesn't tell me how big the sample size is.

So today's NYTimes article on Jorge Posada started my day on the wrong foot. Tyler Kepner writes:

With Posada behind the plate, the Yankees’ pitchers have a 6.31 E.R.A. The combined E.R.A. with Francisco Cervelli, Jose Molina and Kevin Cash is 3.81.

Let's start with sample size. Posada has spent 232.1 innings behind the plate this season.

Cervelli has spent 151.0, Molina 115.1, and Cash 67.0 innings. So the masterful trio have spent 333.1 innings calling pitches. That's 133% of Posada's time.

Of the roughly 163ER that have scored on Posada's watch, we have to consider that 27 of them came in just under 9 innings worth of Chien Ming Wang. Taking those out lowers "Posada's" ERA nearly a full run (5.49). Give him another 100 innings of the Yanks' average ERA (4.84) and he comes down to around 5.2. Not pretty, but not the misleading number that Kepner reports.

Conversely, Cervelli caught CC Sabathia at his best; Cervelli caught 32 innings against 6 ER while CC was dominating May and Posada was out. Toss those innings to Posada, the trio's ERA rises to 4.05 while Jorge's falls from 6.31 to 5.76. Does anyone think that Cervelli et al should be credited when CC is clearly on his game? If so, the Yanks should be spending millions on smart pitch callers rather than on high leverage arms.

On the other hand, I've been watching the news coverage of Pudge Rodriguez's march to the record for all time games at catcher. We all know first hand what an awful game caller he is. Maybe, as one poster postulated recently, maybe Posada has a pitch call pattern that other teams have begun to pick up on, either consciously or subconsciously.

Anyone want to help me watch the starts for the next couple of times through the rotation and chart the pitch type percentages with Jorge behind the dish vs. the backup? Maybe there's something to see there.

[Interesting take on Joba vs. Posada from SNY - Travis (h/t to BBTF)]

How good is the Yankee defense?

Ed Valentine — Tue, 02 Jun 2009 14:59:38 -0000

More photos » by Paul J. Bereswill - AP

Alex Rodriguez has been part of a record-setting defensive effort by the Yankees in recent weeks.

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So, our New York Yankees are now proud owners of a major-league record 18-consecutive game errorless streak. Gotta love that. Oh, and it sure is nice that the previous record had been held by the 2006 Boston Red Sox. It feels good to take something away from Boston after the past few seasons.

The question is, in reality how good is the Yankee defense?

I'm going to break it down the best I can. Keep in mind, I'm no Sabermetrician so I'm not going to just throw a bunch of numbers at you. I will, of course, give you some stats. I will also, however, give you some personal observation and opinion.

FanGraphs has many of the numbers. If you look at 'traditional' measuring sticks like fielding percentage and number of errors the Yankees look terrific. Their .990 fielding percentage is bested only by Philadelphia's .991. On the season, the Yanks have 20 errors. Only the Phillies (17) and Twins (19) have fewer.

Dig a little deeper, though, and the numbers tell a different story.

Look at the Yankees' 0.2 UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) and 0.5 RngR (Range Runs) and you see that the Yankees are squarely in the middle of the pack in terms of the actual value of their defense. (FanGraphs Glossary)

Dig even deeper and you see that those 'average' numbers are an incredible improvement over the defense played by the Yankees last season.

In 2008, FanGraphs' numbers show the Yankees as one of the three worst defensive teams in the big leagues. Yes, they had a .986 fielding percentage. But, their UZR was -44.5 and their RngR was a major-league worst -49.7.

So, what looks 'average' on is actually awesome compared to the amount of runs -- and by extension, wins -- poor defense cost the Yankees in 2008.

We have looked at some of the important numbers. Now let's look at some of the reasons, which will lead me to offer some pure observations.

Infield

Having Mark Teixeira, a Gold Glove caliber fielder, at first base instead of world-class butcher Jason Giambi is, of course, the biggest difference here. Teixeira's RZR puts him in the middle of the pack but that doesn't tell the story. How many times this season has Tex made a play and your reaction has been 'no way Giambi could have done that.' Probably at least a dozen. He has also saved infielders a handful of errors with slick scoops of off-target throws.

We have to talk about Derek Jeter, too. We know that ripping Jeter's defense is pretty much a national pastime. The numbers, though, tell you Jeter is getting better as he gets old. Two seasons ago his RZR was .777. Last season it was .839, and this season it is .846, fourth among all major league shortstops. He has just two errors all season. Maybe it's better positioning and anticipation, but it's damn near impossible to argue that Jeter's defense is hurting the Yankees when you see those numbers. When is the last time you saw a ball hit and thought 'a big-league shortstop has to get that.' More often these days, I find myself thinking 'how did he get there?' when I see him make a play.

Robinson Cano has just two errors (13 last year) and his RZR has improved from .809 to .847. Pretty obvious that Cano's fielding has improved along with his hitting this season.

At third base, Alex Rodriguez' range has been limited by his hip injury. He still has terrific hands and a great arm, though, and makes the play on everything he can still get to.

A subtle difference is also the bench. Remember that last season the Yanks' primary backup infielder was Wilson 'Butcher' Betemit. This year, it has been Ramiro Pena, Cody Ransom and even Angel Berroa. All of those guys are big improvements defensively over Betemit.

Outfield

Bobby Abreu is gone and has been replaced by Nick Swisher, who easily gets to more balls than the wall-leary Abreu. Another subtle difference is that Brett Gardner has played a lot of center field, and Melky Cabrera -- an upgrade over any corner outfielder the Yanks had last season -- has played a lot of innings at the corners. Johnny Damon is not a great left fielder, but when either he or Cabrera is out there that's better than Hideki Matsui.

Catcher

Jose Molina, Francisco Cervelli and Kevin Cash have all been excellent defensively when Jorge Posada has been unable to play. Posada is not horrible, either.

Conclusion

Despite their errorless streak, the Yankees are not a 'great' defensive team. What they are is a 'solid' defensive team, which is a huge improvement over the awful defensive team they were in 2008. Last season the Yankees cost themelves runs -- and ultimately games -- by not being able to make routine plays. This year, they are making the plays they should make and occasionally making a brilliant play.

They may not be the best defensive team in the league. They are, however, helping themselves instead of hurting themselves. That's good enough.

Phillies at Yankees: May 22-24

Matt Swartz — Fri, 22 May 2009 22:26:59 -0000

More photos » by Paul J. Bereswill - AP

Don't worry, CC-- You don't have to face Brett Myers in the DH league! (AP Photo/Paul J. Bereswill)

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The 2008 World Series Champion Philadelphia Phillies bring their first place 2009 squad (22-17) up to the Bronx for a highly anticipated three game set with the New York Yankees (24-17), who currently sit in third place but only a game and a half out of first in the tough AL East.

The Phillies will send out three guys they drafted themselves against three guys the Yankees signed this past offseason. The Yankees now have Alex Rodriguez back from injury to sit in their cleanup spot. He's been a three true outcomes guy in his 55 PA since returning, hitting 5 homers, walking 12 times, and striking out 7 times. Thanks in part to some generous park effects in their new stadium, the Yankees send out a lineup with quite a lot of power in it. They have five guys with slugging averages over .500 in their starting lineup this weekend.

Brett Myers pitches Friday's game against A.J. Burnett. The obvious question is whether he is going to give up any or many homeruns in the small new stadium. Myers has been extremely homerun prone this year, and while all my formulas point towards this being an anomaly, it keeps happening and I'm willing to bet Myers actually has a bigger problem with the longball than projections seem to expect. He'll go up against A.J. Burnett who has been alright, but definitely not what the Yankees thought they were paying for. At least so far. His control seems to be a large part of the problem.

The Phillies introduce J.A. Happ to the rotation with a real chance to test himself on FOX Saturday afternoon. The Yankees do a lean a little bit towards the left side of the plate, but Happ will still have a tall order in front of him. The Yankees are a patient lineup. The Yankees will send out Andy Pettitte, a tough lefthander who has been okay since resigning this season, but has not struck out as many people as one would expect. The Phillies do struggle with lefties and it will be interesting to see what they can do with Pettitte.

The matchup a lot of people are looking forward to is Cole Hamels and CC Sabathia on Sunday. Cole has finally gotten back into form, striking out even more batters than before (over a hitter per inning this year), and looks to put up another solid performance against the team who contributed to his legend. If you recall, Hamels was 19 years old when he walked onto the mound in Spring Training against the New York Yankees and struck out Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, and Tony Clark in succession. Clark is gone, but Jeter and A-Rod remain and Hamels looks to come full circle and strike them out again. CC Sabathia looked unhittable after being traded to the Brewers in 2008 and led them to a Wild Card that they won by only a game. He seemed to be in line to even up the NLDS at one with the Phillies when they sent him to the showers after 3.2 innings instead. The Phillies were up 5-1 at that point and on their way to a 2-0 lead in a best of 5. At that moment, sitting too far from the dugout for him to hear, I exuberantly yelled in Sabathia's direction anyway: "Season over-- your Yankees uniform is waiting for you at the dry cleaners!" I think we all pretty much knew that Sabathia was headed for the Yankees at that point. But he couldn't get away from the Phillies!

MATCHUPS:

Friday, 7:05-- Brett Myers (R) vs. A.J. Burnett (R)

Saturday, 4:10-- J.A. Happ (L) vs. Andy Pettitte (L)

Sunday, 1:05-- Cole Hamels (L) vs. CC Sabathia (L)

After the jump, you can see the player by player splits and batter/pitcher matchups, along with all the same detailed information about the players.

YANKEES

LINE UP

1) SS Derek Jeter (R): .273/.351/.418

projection average (proj): .300/.370/.430
projected BB/PA (bb): 8.5%
projected K/AB (k): 16%
career gb% (gb): 56%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 3%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 8%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): My system projects him at .362, but most systems only see him at .345. I think that mine might be more realistic if he's healthy. He's a very unconventional hitter. His extremely high groundball rate and his BABIP on groundballs is extremely high too, due to both beating out infield hits and due to hitting very hard groundballs. He has a lot of power for an extreme groundball hitter, so his flyballs and line drives carry a lot more. He also almost never pops out.
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): very good eye with slightly above average contact. mildly patient too.
righty/lefty (r/l): .826 vs .900 ops; 1.8 vs 1.4 k/bb
home/away (h/a): .863 vs .824 ops; 1.6 vs 1.8 k/bb
pull/opposite (p/o): slight pull hitter
anything else (other): none

2) LF Johnny Damon (L): .318/.387/.597

proj: .280/.355/.425
bb: 10%
k: 14.5%
gb: 45%
iff: 16%
ifh: 10%
babip: My season projects him at .310, which is close to where most projection systems have him. He gets a lot of infield hits, so he does well on groundballs, but he pops out a lot too.
s/c/z: good eye, patience, and contact skill.
r/l: .811 vs .747 ops; 1.1 vs 1.5 k/bb
h/a: .806 vs .780 ops; 1.0 vs 1.4 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

3) 1B Mark Teixeira (S): .250/.371/.542

proj: .290/.385/.525
bb: 13%
k: 20%
gb: 39%
iff: 11%
ifh: 6%
babip: My system projects him at .313, which is similar to where other systems have him. He hits the ball hard, but he does pop out sometimes. He gets a good number of infield hits for a power hitter.
s/c/z: good patience that is improving. good eye. above average contact skill. thrown fewer strikes over last few years.
r/l: .905 vs .936 ops; 1.5 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .964 vs .865 ops; 1.7 vs 1.5 k/bb
p/o: extreme pull hitter from both sides
other: much better against finesse pitchers.

4) 3B Alex Rodriguez (R): .171/.382/.537

proj: .295/.390/.555
bb: 12.5%
k: 22.5%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 8%
babip: My system projects him at .309, though most systems have him a bit higher between .315-.320. He hits for a lot of power, so he does well on line drives. He gets infield hits, so he does well on groundballs. He does pop out a lot for a hitter of his type, which may be why the other systems are slightly higher than me on him.
s/c/z: good eye, slightly below average contact, average patience.
r/l: .966 vs .969 ops; 1.8 vs 1.7 k/bb
h/a: .988 vs .946 ops; 1.7 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

5) DH Hideki Matsui (L): .252/.340/.455

proj: .280/.355/.445
bb: 11%
k: 14%
gb: 46%
iff: 7%
ifh: 5%
babip: My system projects him at .300, which most systems seem to see him at. He avoids popups somewhat, but doesn't hit for all that much power. He does hit pretty hard groundballs and his groundball rate is a little above average which helps.
s/c/z: good eye, average contact, patient.
r/l: .866 vs .807 ops; 1.0 vs 1.5 k/bb
h/a: .858 vs .837 ops; 1.1 vs 1.2 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers

6) RF Nick Swisher (S): .238/.383/.531

proj: .245/.360/.450
bb: 14%
k: 26%
gb: 35%
iff: 11%
ifh: 3%
babip: My system projects him at .271, but most see him in the .280s. He does not do particularly well on groundballs, as he rarely gets infield hits and pulls balls a lot. He also has poor contact skill, so he probably chops the ball a lot. He does pretty well on line drives, but he pops out a decent amount too.
s/c/z: below average contact, extremely patient, good eye.
r/l: .804 vs .841 ops; 1.9 vs 0.9 k/bb
h/a: .816 vs .815 ops; 1.4 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: major pull hitter
other: none

7) 2B Robinson Cano (L): .317/.354/.527

proj: .300/.350/.465
bb: 5%
k: 12%
gb: 50%
iff: 9%
ifh: 4%
babip: My system projects him at .321, and most systems see him only slightly below that. He gets a lot of groundballs, which helps his babip. He doesn't hit too many infield flies either. He has some power and good contact skill that allows him to center.
s/c/z: impatient hitter, not great eye, very good contact skill.
r/l: .818 vs .780 ops; 2.8 vs 2.5 k/bb
h/a: .780 vs .831 ops; 2.9 vs 2.5 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: far better against finesse pitchers, struggles a lot against power.

8) CF Melky Cabrera (S): .319/.370/.500

proj: .275/.335/.390
bb: 8%
k: 14%
gb: 49%
iff: 13%
ifh: 6%
babip: My system projects him at .292, but most systems see him closer to .300. He doesn't have much power, so he doesn't do well on line drives, and he pops out a lot so he doesn't do well on flyballs either. He does okay on groundballs, since he's pretty fast.
s/c/z: not great eye, good contact skill.
r/l: .739 vs .659 ops; 1.6 vs 1.1 k/bb
h/a: .712 vs .720 ops; 1.4 vs 1.4 k/bb
p/o: spreads the ball around very well.
other: none

9) C Francisco Cervelli (R): .323/.344/.323

proj: .250/.330/.390
bb: 8%
k: 22%
gb: 57% in minors last year from Rk/A/AA
iff: 6.5% in minors last year
ifh: ?
babip: My system does not project him. He's projected all over the place by the different systems.
s/c/z: Early indications are that he's impatient with a poor eye, and slightly below average contact skill.
r/l: better against lefties in minors, it seems
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

BENCH

C Kevin Cash (R): .077/.071/.154

proj: .200/.275/.310
bb: 9%
k: 31%
gb: 49%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: My system does not project him, but most systems have him in the .260s. He doesn't make good contact, have much power, or have much speed. So his BABIP is bound to be pretty low. He doesn't pop out all that much, but he still is probably likely to have a BABIP around that range.
s/c/z: okay eye, okay pateince, poor contact, thrown a lot of strikes.
r/l: .487 vs .617 ops; 5.0 vs 3.4 k/bb
h/a: .515 vs .547 ops; 4.4 vs 4.1 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

IF Angel Berroa (R): .167/.167/.167

proj: .250/.300/.360
bb: 5%
k: 18%
gb: 48%
iff: 12%
ifh: 10%
babip: My system does not project him, but most systems have him around .290. He's fast so he will get some infield hits and draw the infield in enough to get balls through the hole. His lack of power indicates poor ability to do well on line drives and his infield fly rate indicates poor ability to do well on popups.
s/c/z: very bad eye and a free swinger, too. average contact. i can't understate how poor his eye is. he swings at more pitches out of the strike zone than jeff francoeur and it's not even close. somehow, he is thrown a lot of strikes, presumably due to his inability to do much damage on them. even still, he'll chase almost anything close.
r/l: .663 vs .724 ops; 4.0 vs 3.4 k/bb
h/a: .708 vs .654 ops; 2.8 vs 5.9 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: better against groundball pitchers

IF Ramiro Pena (S): .263/.311/.333

proj: .230/.280/.290
bb: 6%
k: 19%
gb: 50-55% through minors
iff: very high in minors, around 15%, though last year down to 8%
ifh: ?
babip: My system does not project him. systems vary wildly on him. seems to be somewhat powerless, with some speed. pops out a decent amount. maybe .275 or so sounds right, but that's just a guess.
s/c/z: early indications are that he has a pretty bad eye, average patience, and good contact skill.
r/l: indications are that he hits righties much better in the minors than lefties.
h/a: not enough info
p/o: seems like a definite pull hitter, but not much info
other: none

OF Brett Gardner (L): .235/.313/.388

proj: .260/.330/.360
bb: 10%
k: 22%
gb: 50-60% range through minors, 48% in majors
iff: 10-15% in minors, 10% in majors
ifh: 8% in majors
babip: My system does not project him, most systems see him around .320. makes sense given his patience and groundball rate. his lack of power does indicate that could be a little high but not much.
s/c/z: early indications are that he's very patient with a pretty good eye, and good contact skill.
r/l: .599 vs .434 ops; 2.5 k/bb vs rhp (just 11 k & 1 bb vs lhp)
h/a: not enough info
p/o: slight opposite field hitter
other: not enough info

DISABLED LIST: OF Xavier Nady (R): .286/.310/.429

proj: .280/.340/.470
bb: 6%
k: 20%
gb: 44%
iff: 10%
ifh: 5%
babip: My system projects him at .305, most systems see him closer to .315. He does mildly well on groundballs, okay at avoiding popups, so pretty average there. Has some power so does pretty well on line drives, but .315 seems high to me despite career .317 thus far.
s/c/z: okay eye but not patient. average contact skill.
r/l: .769 vs .854 ops; 4.0 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .784 vs .799 ops; 3.2 vs 3.1 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

DISABLED LIST: C Jorge Posada (S): .312/.402/.584

proj: .280/.375/.460
bb: 12%
k: 21%
gb: 42%
iff: 7%
ifh: 5%
babip: My system does not project him since he did not get 300 PA last year. He has some power so he does pretty well on line drives. He should do well given his ability to avoid popouts. He's not especially fast, so probably not great on grounders. Projections around .330 seem about right, though maybe a tiny bit high.
s/c/z: very good eye, patient, average contact
r/l: .848 vs .886 ops; 1.4 vs 1.7 k/bb
h/a: .884 vs .837 ops; 1.4 vs 1.6 k/bb
p/o: pretty much a pull hitter both ways
other: improves over course of game against a pitcher, especially third time around.

DISABLED LIST: C Jose Molina (R): .273/.333/.386

proj: .235/.275/.340
bb: 5%
k: 22%
gb: 46%
iff: 7%
ifh: 3.5%
babip: My system does not project him. He's projected by other systems around .290. His ability to avoid infield flies helps, but he's not very fast and not very powerful. he does spread the ball around well so .290 could be doable.
s/c/z: not a good eye, free swinger, below average contact
r/l: .573 vs .713 ops; 5.0 vs 4.0 k/bb
h/a: .641 vs .598 ops; 3.7 vs 5.7 k/bb
p/o: spreads ball around well
other: struggles a lot against power pitchers.

ROTATION

FRIDAY OPPONENT: A.J. Burnett (R): 5.02 ERA, 4.3 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.90 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 3.90 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 8.5 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 65% fb, 29% cb, 5% ch, 1% sl
r/l: .667 vs .697 ops; 2.3 vs 2.2 k/bb
h/a: .656 vs .709 ops; 2.5 vs 2.0 k/bb

Burnett vs Phillies:

Rollins: 10/40, 3 2B, 5 BB, 11 K, 1 SF
Utley: 6/19, 1 3B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 5 K
Ibanez: 3/13, 1 2B, 0 BB, 4 K, 1 SF
Feliz: 2/12, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Cairo: 1/8, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Howard: 2/9, 2 HR, 0 BB, 5 K
Stairs: 2/8, 2 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Dobbs: 4/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Werth: 0/4, 2 BB, 2 K
Coste: 1/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

SATURDAY OPPONENT: Andy Pettitte (L): 4.18 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 4.60 FIP, 46% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 52% fb, 28% ct, 11% cb, 6% ch, 3% sl
r/l: .729 vs .710 ops; 2.2 vs 3.3 k/bb
h/a: .699 vs .752 ops; 2.7 vs 2.1 k/bb

Pettitte vs Phillies:

Cairo: 10/36, 4 2B, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 Sac
Ibanez: 5/18, 1 2B, 0 BB, 5 K, 1 HBP
Rollins: 4/15, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Werth: 1/10, 1 HR, 0 BB, 4 K
Stairs: 0/9, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 2/6, 1 BB, 1 K
Howard: 1/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/4, 1 BB, 2 K
Ruiz: 2/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K

SUNDAY OPPONENT: CC Sabathia (L): 3.43 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 6.3 K/9, 0.4 HR/9, 3.60 FIP, 46% GB

proj avg: 3.30 ERA, 2.0 BB/9, 8.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 54% fb, 25% sl, 21% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: .695 vs .655 ops; 2.5 vs 3.3 k/bb
h/a: .688 vs .686 ops; 2.8 vs 2.5 k/bb

Sabathia vs Phillies (including 2008 NLDS):

Ibanez: 10/36, 1 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 10 K, 1 HBP
Rollins: 4/9, 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 1/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 3 K
Howard: 1/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 4 K
Stairs: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Utley: 0/5, 1 BB, 3 K
Victorino: 2/5, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Cairo: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 2/4, 2 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US: Phil Hughes (R): 7.06 ERA, 5.4 BB/9, 7.9 K/9, 2.5 HR/9, 7.11 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 37%
pitches: 63% fb, 23% cb, 6% sl, 6% ch, (27% ct this year, instead of a slider)
r/l: .649 vs .924 ops; 2.8 vs 1.1 k/bb
h/a: .871 vs .693 ops; 1.7 vs 1.7 k/bb

Hughes vs Phillies:

Stairs: 1/8, 1 BB, 2 K
Ibanez; 2/2, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US: Joba Chamberlain (R): 3.70 ERA, 4.6 BB/9, 8.9 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.73 FIP, 41% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 9.2 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 65% fb, 25% sl , 8% cb, 2% ch
r/l: .633 vs .645 ops; 3.6 vs 2.5 k/bb
h/a: .586 vs .681 ops; 2.8 vs 3.2 k/bb

Chamberlain vs Phillies:

Stairs: 1/4, 2 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

BULLPEN

CL: Mariano Rivera (R): 2.89 ERA, 0.5 BB/9, 11.1 K/9, 2.4 HR/9, 4.36 FIP, 45% GB

proj avg: 2.80 ERA, 1.5 BB/9, 8.5 K/9, 0.5 HR/9
gb: 54%
pitches: 82% ct, 18% fb
r/l: .604 vs .519 ops; 4.3 vs 3.5 k/bb
h/a: .579 vs .539 ops; 3.8 vs 4.0 k/bb

Rivera vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 1/15, 2 BB, 5 K
Stairs: 2/14, 0 BB, 4 K
Cairo: 1/6, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Howard: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Jonathan Albaladejo (R): 6.00 ERA, 4.3 BB/9, 5.1 K/9, 2.1 HR/9, 6.85 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 51%
pitches: 78% fb, 12% sl, 10% cb
r/l: .729 vs .732 ops; 2.3 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: .688 vs .770 ops; 3.2 vs 1.9 k/bb

Albaladejo vs Phillies:

Ruiz: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Dobbs: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Phil Coke (L): 4.58 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 2.0 HR/9, 5.96 FIP, 34% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 72% fb, 23% sl, 5% ch
r/l: .569 vs .522 ops; 3.7 vs 4.3 k/bb
h/a: .417 vs .632 ops; 4.5 vs 3.8 k/bb

Coke: has not played any Phillies

Brian Bruney (R): 3.00 ERA, 2.0 BB/9, 13.0 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 0.96 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 5.2 BB/9, 8.3 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 36%
pitches: 66% fb, 30% sl, 4% ch
r/l: .661 vs .755 ops; 2.0 vs 1.0 k/bb
h/a: .691 vs .708 ops; 1.8 vs 1.2 k/bb

Bruney vs Phillies:

Feliz: 1/7, 1 2B, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 SF
Rollins: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Jose Veras (R): 6.00 ERA, 6.0 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 5.52 FIP, 26% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.9 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 38%
pitches: 71% fb, 26% cb, 3% sf
r/l: .672 vs .767 ops; 1.7 vs 1.7 k/bb
h/a: .728 vs .696 ops; 1.7 vs 1.8 k/bb

Veras vs Phillies:

Stairs: 0/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K

Brett Tomko (R): 2.70 ERA, 0.0 BB/9, 0.0 K/9, 2.7 HR/9, 7.08 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 2.7 BB/9, 6.7 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 43%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% sl, 11% cb, 8% sf, 6% ch, 0.2% ct
r/l: .767 vs .796 ops; 2.6 vs 1.7 k/bb
h/a: .730 vs .828 ops; 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb

Tomko vs Phillies:

Werth: 5/22, 1 3B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Rollins: 8/15, 2 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac, 1 SF
Stairs: 5/14, 1 2B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 5 K
Utley: 3/14, 1 3B, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Feliz: 6/14, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 5/7, 2 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 1/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Cairo: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Dobbs: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

Alfredo Aceves (R): 1.32 ERA, 2.0 BB/9, 7.9 K/9, 0.7 HR/9, 3.26 FIP, 47% GB

proj avg: 4.70 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 5.7 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 43% fb, 26% cb, 17% ch, 14% ct
r/l: .659 vs .708 ops; 2.5 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: .636 vs .740 ops; 2.7 vs 1.2 k/bb

Aceves: has not played any Phillies

DISABLED LIST: Chien-Ming Wang (R): 34.50 ERA, 9.0 BB/9, 3.0 K/9, 3.0 HR/9, 10.35 FIP, 29% GB

proj avg: 3.90 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.7 K/9, 0.5 HR/9
gb: 60%
pitches: 77% fb, 17% sl, 3% ch, 3% sf
r/l: .655 vs .750 ops; 2.3 vs 1.0 k/bb
h/a: .656 vs .753 ops; 1.5 vs 1.5 k/bb

Wang vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 4/22, 2 2B, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 SF
Stairs: 6/13, 4 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 1/2, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: Damaso Marte (L): 15.19 ERA, 5.1 BB/9, 10.1 K/9, 5.1 HR/9, 10.50 FIP, 16% GB

proj avg: 3.70 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 36%
pitches: 61% fb, 35% sl, 3% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: .723 vs .589 ops; 2.1 vs 2.9 k/bb
h/a: .660 vs .675 ops; 2.3 vs 2.4 k/bb

Marte vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 4/16, 0 BB, 4 K, 1 HBP
Stairs: 1/6, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Rollins: 2/7, 0 BB, 1 K
Cairo: 3/3, 2 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/3, 0 BB, 3 K
Utley: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Bruntlett: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

PHILLIES

LINE UP

1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S): .234/.275/.329

projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average. my system has him at about .308.
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb. otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.

2) 2B Chase Utley (L): .295/.432/.597

proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs. my system has him at about .308, but he beats projection systems consistently.
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters

3) LF Raul Ibanez (L): .349/.410/.724

proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand. my system sees him right at .300.
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none

4) 1B Ryan Howard (L): .266/.349/.545

proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep. also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though. probably above average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes. however, he is pretty good at distinguishing balls from strikes despite the consensus on him. he makes terrible contact overall though. my system sees him at .310.
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!" in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably. his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp. he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip. i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road. very similar hr numbers. 2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position

5) RF Jayson Werth (R): .272/.371/.500

proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average. my system has him at .329.
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year

6) CF Shane Victorino (S): .257/.306/.419

proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate. my system sees him at .303.
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year

7) 3B Pedro Feliz (R): .310/.377/.434

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls. my system sees him at .271.
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes. swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home. likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related

8) Carlos Ruiz (R): .236/.373/.327

proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey. his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lot. my system sees him at .288.
s/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers

BENCH

C Chris Coste (R): .241/.333/.414

proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches. my system sees him at .294.
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat

IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R): .129/.194/.258

proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb. he should be used as a counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

IF Greg Dobbs (L): .143/.250/.229

proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters. given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp. in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp. he should never see them. absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers

OF Matt Stairs (L): .304/.515/.609

proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around. my system sees him at .295.
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency

ROTATION

FRIDAY STARTER: Brett Myers (R): 4.50 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 2.2 HR/9, 6.16 FIP, 46% GB

proj avg: 4.15 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 47%
pitches: 48% fb, 23% cb, 18% sl, 9% ch, 1% ct, 0.2% sf
r/l: .788 vs .747 ops despite 3.1 vs 1.95 k/bb; main issue is much higher HR rate vs rhb, slightly higher babip vs them as well; does not seem to be selection bias
h/a: .738 vs .800 ops; 2.7 vs 2.15 k/bb; slightly higher HR rate at home, but that is probably park factors as he surrenders far more doubles on road
other: HR rate is bizarre-- very few pitchers have the HR/Flyball rate he does. My personal suspicion is that statistics that don't exhibit much persistence despite what common sense suggests only do not exhibit persistence specifically because players make adjustments. If you throw fastball after fastball on the outside corner on every 1-2 count, the hitters will respond by hitting singles to the opposite field over and over again and your BABIP will go up. However, pitchers learn to mix up their pitches and BABIP ends up lacking persistence due to the constant game theoretical reaction that pitchers and hitters take. For Myers, his bizarre refusal to use his curveball early in the game leaves him especially vulernable to RHB who know it isn't coming. A little game theoretical mixed strategy would probably allow him to finally live up to his peripherals which suggest a low HR rate and borderline ace stuff.

Myers vs Yankees:

Damon: 4/14, 4 BB, 3 K
Teixeira: 0/4, 1 BB, 3 K
Cabrera: 0/4, 0 BB, 2 K
Jeter: 1/3, 1 BB, 1 K
Rodriguez: 1/2, 1 2B, 2 BB, 1 K
Berroa: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Cano: 0/2, 1 BB, 1 K

SATURDAY STARTER: J.A. Happ (L): 2.49 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, 0.4 HR/9, 3.60 FIP, 34% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

Happ: has not faced any Yankees

SUNDAY STARTER: Cole Hamels (L): 4.95 ERA, 2.2 BB/9, 9.4 K/9, 2.0 HR/9, 4.70 FIP, 37% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant. ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar. most likely he strikes out more at night.

Hamels vs Yankees:

Teixeira: 3/14, 1 HR, 0 BB, 3 K
Damon: 2/2, 2 BB, 0 K
Jeter: 2/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Cabrera: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Rodriguez: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Jamie Moyer (L): 7.62 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 4.6 K/9, 2.6 HR/9, 7.25 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets

Moyer vs Yankees:

Jeter: 22/68, 3 2B, 2 HR, 5 BB, 3 K
Rodriguez: 21/54, 3 2B, 6 HR, 5 BB (1 IBB), 6 K
Damon: 13/46, 1 2B, 2 HR, 4 BB, 4 K, 2 Sac, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Teixeira: 11/36, 3 2B, 1 HR, 7 BB (1 IBB), 7 K
Matsui: 8/21, 2 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 2 K
Berroa: 4/16, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Swisher: 3/10, 0 BB, 3 K
Cash: 0/4, 1 BB, 1 K
Cano: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Joe Blanton (R): 7.11 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 1.8 HR/9, 5.44 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games

Blanton vs Yankees:

Teixeira: 9/27, 1 2B, 3 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Berroa: 3/11, 1 BB, 4 K, 2 HBP
Jeter: 4/12, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Rodriguez: 4/7, 1 2B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Cano: 1/9, 1 BB, 0 K
Damon: 2/10, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Matsui: 1/7, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Cabrera: 1/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Swisher: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K

BULLPEN

CL Brad Lidge (R): 7.85 ERA, 5.4 BB/9, 9.3 K/9, 2.5 HR/9, 6.62 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Lidge vs Yankees:

Teixeira: 1/9, 0 BB, 5 K
Rodriguez: 1/2, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Berroa: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Swisher: 0/1, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Damon: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Jeter: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Matsui: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Ryan Madson (R): 3.38 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 9.2 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.11 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all

Madson vs Yankees:

Damon: 2/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Teixeira: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Swisher: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Scott Eyre (L): 3.60 ERA, 7.2 BB/9, 6.3 K/9, 1.8 HR/9, 7.08 FIP, 39% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Eyre vs Yankees:

Rodriguez: 2/14, 2 HR, 3 BB (1 IBB), 5 K
Jeter: 2/11, 2 2B, 2 BB, 2 K
Damon: 2/5, 1 BB, 1 K
Berroa: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Jack Taschner (L): 3.66 ERA, 6.4 BB/9, 4.6 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 5.93 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 57% fb, 30% sl, 13% ch
r/l: 1.45 vs 2.2 k/bb; .754 vs .747-- large selection bias where he faces only very good lefties and not very good righties
h/a: .698 vs .797 ops; 2.1 vs 1.5 k/bb

Taschner vs Yankees:

Swisher: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Berroa: 1 BB
Cano: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Matsui: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Roriguez: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Teixeira: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K

Chad Durbin (R): 4.70 ERA, 5.1 BB/9, 8.2 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 5.27 FIP, 31% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise

Durbin vs Yankees:

Damon; 2/16, 1 2B, 2 BB, 1 K
Berroa: 3/9, 1 3B, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Rodriguez: 1/6, 1 BB, 1 K
Cabrera: 2/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Jeter: 1/5, 1 BB, 1 K
Cano: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Matsui: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Cash: 2/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Swisher: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Teixeira: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Clay Condrey (R): 2.38 ERA, 3.2 B/9, 6.4 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.55 FIP, 49% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

Condrey vs Yankees:

Teixeira: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Berroa: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Cano: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rodriguez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chan Ho Park (R): 6.88 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 5.6 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.65 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

Park vs Yankees:

Damon: 2/13, 1 HR, 3 BB, 4 K
Jeter: 1/7, 1 HR, 3 BB, 1 K
Matsui: 0/7, 1 BB, 3 K
Tomko: 1/6, 1 Bb, 4 K, 1 Sac
Berroa: 2/7, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Rodriguez: 2/5, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Swisher: 0/5, 1 BB, 2 K
Cano: 2/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Teixeira: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

Sergio Escalona (L): 0.00 ERA, 0.0 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 1.47 FIP, 0% GB (2.1 IP)

proj avg: unprojected
gb: around 50% in minors
pitches: ?
r/l: some of a LOOGY type split in the minors but not strong
h/a: not enough info

Escalona: has not faced any Yankees

SUSPENDED: J.C. Romero (L)

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB?9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

Romero vs Yankees:

Teixeira: 3/16, 1 HR, 5 BB (1 IBB), 6 K, 1 HBP
Damon: 4/17, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
Matsui: 3/10, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Cano: 2/9, 0 BB, 1 K
Rodriguez: 4/7, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 0 K
Swisher: 1/5, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Berroa: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Jeter: 0/2, 1 Bb, 0 K
Cabrera: 2/2, 2 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Cash: 2/2, 2 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

Mark Teixeira is not a Red Sox -- now let's move on

Randy Booth — Wed, 24 Dec 2008 00:50:44 -0000

After hearing about Mark Teixeira signing with the Yankees, a little more than 180 million thoughts popped into my head. At this point, it's basically rambling, but I'm going to throw it down here in bullet form for all of you to enjoy.

Mike Lowell is one happy man now.

The Yankees swooped in and made the kill like some people thought they would. Personally, I didn't see it coming. I didn't think the Yankees could really afford to put up that kind of money after signing CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett. I know they're rich, I just didn't know they were that stupid.
What does this say about Teixeira? I'm not quite sure. He's got no soul, that's one thing. But since he didn't sign with the Nationals or Orioles means he cares about winning. I guess that's a good thing. But who cares about his character at this point? He's a damn Yankee.
The worst part about this whole situation is being dragged along from the get go. If we were Nats or O's fans, we'd accept Teixeira not signing with us. But we were supposedly in the lead for almost the entire duration of the free agency period. If we were No. 2 or No. 3, fine. It just sucks getting smacked down like that so quickly.
No matter how badly this hurts, though, there are a lot of positives to this. One is the Sox have A LOT of money to play around with. The consensus here at OTM was the money Teixeira wanted was way more than he was worth, so why spend it? Now we can put that money towards areas of real need.
Speaking of money, Derek Lowe or John Smoltz anyone? The Red Sox need another starting pitcher and their hands are free now to make a splash. This even opens the door wider to the possibility of trading for Jake Peavy. That's not necessarily a money game, but it's a big move game that the Sox might want to play.
The pressure in New York used to be really bad. The pressure now is through the roof. What happens if -- no, I'm going to say WHEN -- the Yankees finish behind the Red Sox in the standings? Think everyone in New York is going to throw a party or start jumping off bridges? If this team sucks, it will be World War III in the Bronx.
The person resting easy now is Mike Lowell. I think we are all happy that Lowell will be back as a Sox and we don't have to ship him away. He's a character guy and didn't deserve all this crap from the beginning. Third base is yours, Mikey.
Can't mention Lowell without mentioning Kevin Youkilis. Our gold glove first baseman is sticking at first base. That's a very good thing.
In case anyone forgot, we still have a huge gap in our lineup: catcher. I really feel Jason Varitek will be back, but the question is the future. The Sox need to make some type of move to bring in a young catcher because another season with Varitek and Kevin Cash behind the plate won't be pretty.
I think the Sox could have got Teixeira, but I give credit to the Red Sox front office for standing pat and not giving in to Scott Boras' terrorist demands. The Yankees were willing to do all that but the Sox wouldn't and we should applaud that. They stuck to their guns and the Sox will be better off for that.
The rivalry is back ... if anyone thought otherwise.
I think I've hit a wall here, but I'll leave everyone with one final message: the Red Sox are still a very, very good team. With or without Teixeira, this team will compete as long as people stay healthy. This was not a bust by any means. Teixeira is a Yankee, but so what? They had to spend over $400M dollars just to build a team that probably won't even finish better than the Sox this year. It's sad, really. We built a team through our farm system; they built a team through ticket sales. Who are the real winners?

Poll

How are you feeling now that Teixeira is a Yankee?

I'm good because the Sox are still in a great position.

138 votes

Ehh. It's a wash at this point.

85 votes

Does Google Earth show the closest bridges?

168 votes

391 votes | Poll has closed

Jason Varitek: Yay or Nay?

0157H7 — Sun, 14 Dec 2008 18:25:19 -0000

With all the excitement over the Yankees' moves, and over Teixeira speculation, we're moving away from what may be the most critical position for the Red Sox long-term - catcher. The Red Sox have a serious decision to make, and it starts with whether or not they want Jason Varitek.

From where I stand, Tek really erred when he decided not to accept arbitration. Coming off an atrocious year, and his second lost season in the past three, Tek's strategy should have been to accept arbitration. Then he could make more money than as a free agent, and hopefully rebuild his value for another run at free agency for 2010.

As it is now, the market for Tek appears almost non-existent. The Tigers grabbed Gerald Laird, the Reds traded for Ramon Hernandez. And if a team wanted a veteran catcher, they'd probably prefer Ivan Rodriguez, who wouldn't cost first round draft picks.

If Jason Varitek can't work something out with the Red Sox, Boras is going to have to start marketing him in Japan. As much as Varitek-san would love the land of the Rising Sun, I think he'd prefer to not deal with a new league, new language, new pitching staff, and a new greatly reduced salary.*

With practically no other teams bidding for his services, Varitek has basically zero leverage. If he comes back to Boston, it'll be on Theo's terms. Our front office is not immune to sentimentality - witness the $4 million 2008 contract for Mike Timlin - but I hope in this case it won't be the driving factor. In this case, Theo should be able to hold Tek to a one-year deal, either as the primary starter or as part of a platoon with someone younger or better defensively (i.e. Cash).

On a one-year deal for less money, say $4 million, Varitek may be a legitimate option. The pitching staff likes him, and he hits lefties well (2008: .863 OPS). He's just one season removed from a good 2007 (.787 OPS). There is the possibility that he bounces back, especially if his struggles were more psychological (i.e. he got divorced) than physical.

However, I would prefer that Theo begins auditions for Who Wants to Catch the Red Sox sooner rather than later. Tek's defense has become underwhelming (18.8% caught-stealing percentage), and as a hitter he struggled to make contact all year long (2008: .220 / .313 / .359). It's unrealistic to expect much of an improvement at age 37, especially for a catcher. I'd rather bring back Kevin Cash, who plays good defense, guns down runners (26.9% CS%), and can catch Wakefield, than Tek, who is misfiring on all cylinders.

So here's my proposal:
1) Trade for a top catching prospect (preferably Teagarden, Salty, or Brian Anderson). Give him 60-75% of starts.
2) Bring back Kevin Cash, have him catch Wakefield and the remaining starts.
3) Have Dusty Brown / George Kottaras waiting in the wings should the prospect struggle or go down to injury.

What say you OTM? Do you approve? And more importantly, do you want Jason Varitek back for 2008?

*Baseball players in Japan make substantially less than their American counterparts. This is part of the reason that coming to the U.S. can be so appealing.

Poll

Should Jason Varitek be on the Red Sox for the 2009 season?

Yes. He should be the starting catcher.

93 votes

Yes. But he should be in a platoon or be the backup.

92 votes

No. He's too old, and coming off a terrible season. Give someone else a shot.

58 votes

I refuse to submit to this tyrannical tri-partite poll. Ron Paul for catcher!!!!@!

12 votes

255 votes | Poll has closed

Flowers In December: Any Interesting Names on the Non-Tender List?

hugo — Sat, 13 Dec 2008 15:21:46 -0000

The midnight deadline by which teams had to tender contracts to their arbitration-eligible players has come and gone, and non-tendered players become free agents. As I reported before sitting down to a lovely evening of watching Iron Man and eating homemade pizza with Mrs. Hugo, the Jays kept all their arbitration-eligibles in the fold, makin offers to Brandon League, Brian Tallet, Jose Bautista, and Jason Frasor. Here is the list of non-tendered players, and it's got a few names worth some further look.

Ty Wigginton, IF/OF: Wigginton, who we've discussed earlier here, was cut loose by the Houston Astros despite having a fine season last year, batting .285/.350/.526 in 429 plate appearances and seeing time in the infield and outfield corners. He's been a solid hitter throughout his career and especially has crushed lefties. Beyond the Box Score also had good things to say about his defense at third base, though his reputation is less favorable. Wigginton made $4.35 last year and was due a raise - the Astros ultimately decided they couldn't afford him. As Rince mentioned earlier this week, we know the Jays have some interest in Wigginton. I think that interest makes sense: Wigginton will be a tad pricey, but no more than the Jays paid for David Eckstein last year, and much more useful. He provides power the team could really use, could spell Overbay against lefties (against whom he was awful last year) or else DH against them, and backup Rolen at third base. The only problem is that a few teams, like the Twins for example, will probably offer Wigginton an everyday job at third base, which the Jays can't do.

Joe Nelson, RHRP: Nelson will be 34 this season but had a very nice season last year with the Florida Marlins, striking out 60 over 54 innings and walking just 22, yielding just 1.19 walks and hits per inning pitched all told. He also had a good year in 2006 with the Royals and his minor league numbers are solid so it's not as if 2008 was a total aberration. Nelson was equally solid against righties and lefties. Sure, our bullpen is stacked, but with some relievers returning from injury and others possibly moving to the rotation, you can never have enough quality arms, particularly if the Jays decide to move bullpen help to fill needs in other areas. Nelson is arbitration-eligible for the first time so isn't in for any kind of big payday. He did a fine job last year and is a decent move for any team.

Daniel Cabrera, RHSP: Every year it seems like this guy has been primed for a breakout year, but it hasn't happened. He made $4 million last season and had his worst season ever, continuing to walk about a batter every two innings and seeing his K rate completely fall apart. He also battled elbow problems, which could either mean he will rebound if he's healthy now or that he's a bad risk if he's not. Sure, there's a school of thought that says he has killer stuff and just needs to put it together, and it could be suggested that Arnsberg could fix him. I suppose I wouldn't mind taking a pure flier on him with a really cheap deal, but my guess is that there won't be any shortage of teams in on him, and I don't think he's worth $4 million as he's never had a good season (never had a Whip under 1.4 or an ERA+ over 96). Last year was truly terrible and it's hard to justify $4 million on top of that. I say pass.

Jonny Gomes, DH/OF/1B: Gomes can't field worth a lick, but for a team like the Jays and their almost historically bad DH production in 2008, that's not a fatal strike against him. Gomes has been used as a part-time player against lefties, against whom he has historically fared quite well (.266/.369/.510 career). Gomes has basically had two below average years, one very good year, and one terrible year (2008). He is a bit of a worse version of Wigginton with some significant weaknesses compared to Ty: he can't play the field, he's not a good hitter against righties, and he is coming off a terrible season. Of course, he will be much cheaper, and DHs don't have to field. For a team as offense-starved as the Jays, he's probably worth a look, but I'm not expecting big things - he's only had one season that approaches what you want from a DH and that was back in 2005.

Chris Capuano, LHP: Capuano made $3.75 million last season and didn't throw a pitch while undergoing his second ligament replacement surgery on his left elbow. He is still on the way back and likely will not be ready for the beginning of the season. The Brewers didn't offer him a contract but might still bring him back on a lower-cost deal. The Springfield, Massachusetts native will turn 30 in August. He was a very useful mid-rotation starter in 2005 and 2006, averaging a 110 ERA+ over the two seasons and pitching to an excellent 174/47 K/BB ratio over 221 innings in 2006. Capuano is still young and is probably worth a look for the Jays, as he has a solid track record as a starter when healthy, he's still young, and it's not at all unforseeable that he will have a nice bounceback year. The two TJ surgeries are a caution though, as is the price tag. Add in the fact that he likely won't be ready for the start of the season (the TJ surgery was in May) and it's not clear that the Jays should spend more money on another injury project. Personally, though, I would much rather the Jays bite on Capuano than Cabrera. I'd take a look at the medicals and offer a short-term deal with some nice incentives and a quality option for next season - I could see Capuano rebuilding his career over the next two seasons. If there's someone I hope the Jays look at on this list, it's Capuano.

Takashi Saito, RHRP: Saito will be 39 at the beginning of last season and made $2 million last season, his third after coming over to MLB from Japan. Saito's major-league numbers are fantastic - if he was healthy, he'd be looking at tons of money as he has three very good seasons of closing under his belt, with a lifetime 229 ERA+ (compare Mariano Rivera at 199) and a career Whip of 0.91 (compare Rivera again at 1.02). But Takashi's health is a huge question mark after serious elbow problems, namely, a torn ulnar collateral ligament. In an attempt to avoid TJ surgery, the normal treatment (and a likely career-ender for a 39-year old pitcher), Saito underwent an experimental procedure by which plasma rich in platelets (an order of magnitude more than the normal concentration of platelets) drawn from his body was injected directly into the ligament at the tear site. It's not clear how successful the treatment will be long-term, but it will be interesting to see - particularly, if it is successful, whether other pitchers in their 30s will opt for the procedure in lieu of TJ surgery or retirement. Anyway, back from my medical-nerd digression. Saito returned from the procedure to pitch in the playoffs (not very well, but that's understandable). A 39-year old reliever doesn't necessarily make sense for a team like the Jays, who already have a rich bullpen, but if they plan to trade away some depth, it's never a bad idea to get all the quality arms you can. Saito probably makes more sense for another team, though I'd love to see him pitching for the Jays. If Ryan were traded away, Saito becomes a good (though not necessary) move in my opinion as you can use him in the closer role and give the Jays' younger pitchers high-leverage innings while easing them into closing duties.

Chuck James, LHSP: James is only 27 and was considered a pretty good pitching prospect but only made 7 starts last season and underwent shoulder surgery in August. He will likely miss all of 2009 but he posted pretty good numbers as a young lefty starter for the Braves in 2006 and 2007. He could be worth looking at, but I don't he really profiles well in the American League - he doesn't have overwhelming stuff and gives up too many fly balls and home runs while also walking too many. He could still have a decent career, but the Jays have plenty of guys like this and better who aren't recovering from shoulder surgery.

Jamie Burke, C: He'll be 37 for the 2009 season and isn't coming off a good year, but a backup catcher with a 94 career OPS+? You could do worse.

Kevin Cash, C: Just kidding.

Today's title from the lovely song by Mazzy Star, one of the more underrated bands around.

Red Sox finish season 95-67

Randy Booth — Mon, 29 Sep 2008 15:30:58 -0000

One of the best moments of the season -- and most deserving. (via d.yimg.com)

After battling through every sore shoulder, pulled muscle, numb hand the Baseball Gods could possibley throw their way, the Boston Red Sox finished the 2008 campaign with an impressive 95-67 record.

I don't think anyone expected this after the first month of the season. Curt Schilling went down early and everything seemed to follow. Julio Lugo, JD Drew, Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, David Ortiz and Mike Lowell all missed significant portions of the season (Schilling is done for the year, Lugo we probably won't see in the playoffs).

Yet the Sox battled and beat adversity. Names like Jonathan Van Every and Jeff Bailey popped up out of nowhere and contributed. Players like Kevin Cash and Sean Casey stepped up and produced. It was a season full of ups and downs, but as the playoffs approach the Sox can only be up.

The Red Sox might even have an MVP on their team once results are announced. Dustin Pedroia was great all season long and could earn the honor. No one can argue with these numbers by the scrappy second-year player: .326 batting average, .376 on-base percentage, 17 home runs, 54 doubles, 20-for-21 in stolen bases, Gold Glove-calibur defense and No. 1 in "Biggest Mouth with the Biggest Bite."

His competition may even be his own teammate: Kevin Youkilis. Some will say Youkilis was more important to the Red Sox this year with his 115 runs batted in, but both would get my vote if mine actually meant something. Youkilis -- not Ortiz or the departed Manny Ramirez -- led the Red Sox with 29 home runs. He batted .312 with a .390 on-base percentage. Unlike last season, Youkilis did not tire towards the stretch-run of the season and his stats prove that.

On the mound, Jon Lester was everything we've ever thought he could be. With Beckett battling injuries all season long (and now he has an oblique injury), Lester stepped up to the plate -- well, mound -- and delivered. His 3.21 earned run average helped lead him to 16 wins and 6 losses in 33 games. At just 24 years old, the sky is the limit for the Red Sox's newest addition to the "Big Game Pitcher" category.

Lester had an amazing season, but let's not forget Matsuzaka who some may argue had a better season. Followers here at Over The Monster know Matsuzaka's numbers are a little skewed (or, in reality, should be a lot worse): 18-3 with a 2.90 earned run average. Great numbers, but I can speak for every Red Sox fan when I say we were never really comfortable with Matsuzaka in a game. The problem? Walks. He allowed 94 free passes in 167 innings and, somehow, barely ever got burned. Pitchers around the league curse him for his ability to get into jams and get out of them. Nevertheless, outside of the walks, his stats are gorgeous. One stat that doesn't get mentioned a lot is one he leads the league in: opponent's batting average. His .211 batting average against is tops in baseball, a whole 10 points better than San Francisco's Tim Lincecum (perhaps the NL's Cy Young winner).

Another successful season deserves another pat on the back for manager Terry Francona. Once again, Francona battled through the setbacks and coached this team to the best of his ability. His handling of pitchers and the lineup seemed spot-on for most of the season and I know it won't be any different for the post-season.

A great season that can only get better with 11 victories in the post-season. Go Sox.

(OTM reader Question of the Day: what was your favorite moment of the 2008 season?)

Poll

How do you grade the Red Sox's 2008 season?

A

42 votes

B

94 votes

C

6 votes

D

1 votes

F

19 votes

162 votes | Poll has closed