SB Nation - Juan Gutierrez

This Week in AZ Baseball: winter meetings, drugs and Reno personnel

Jim McLennan — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 01:00:20 -0000

I'd just like to say, gastroenteritis sucks. One second, you're feeling perfectly fine, the next you're calling for Ralph and Hughie on the big white telephone. Rinse. Repeat. I haven't been able to be more than 30 feet from a bathroom in two days now, except for the drive to and from work - and certainly makes for a nervous twenty minutes there, I can assure you. [Yes, I could call in sick, but I'm a firm believer that time off should only be taken when you are well enough to enjoy it. If I'm going to be miserable, I may as well get paid for it] Still, life goes on, and so does the ongoing work for the Diamondbacks' front-office, as they build towards 2010.

After the jump, we'll take a look at what the winter meetings may hold for Arizona - brief summary, nothing too startling, probably - discuss some unpleasantness down in Mobile, and look at what some of our guys are doing in the Central and South American leagues. I'll bring the saltine crackers.

The annual winter meetings take place next week in Indianapolis. Nick Piecoro doesn't expect much action over them, saying "The more drawn out the off-season, one team executive mused this week, the better it could be for the Diamondbacks, who might wind up bargain hunting for a pitcher deep into January." This makes some sense: outside of the very shallow top tier of starting pitchers available - which largely begins and ends with John Lackey - there isn't anyone who seems to deserve too much chasing. I wouldn't hold my breath expecting our rotation to be fleshed out until after the New Year.

Steve Gilbert reports that our overall priorities during the winter are "a fourth starter to replace free agent Doug Davis, whom the club is not interested in retaining, some depth in the bullpen and possibly a veteran hitter that could play multiple positions including first base." Again, if you're feeling masochistic, click through to the comments and read such sad drivel from the alleged "fans" as, "Given the overall performance of Max Scherzer last season, his stats, and tendoncies [sic] I would consider him a number 5 kind of starter." Really. If I wasn't already wanting to throw up before, I'm sure I would be on reading that. [Pause for DayQuil]

Speaking of pharmaceutiicals, two Diamondbacks have been suspended for 50 games for failing drug tests. Before your heart stops entirely, I should point out that, while still disappointing, they are minor-leaguers, Daniel Vasquez and Matt Tupman. Both were most recently with Double-A Mobile, though Tupman is now a free-agent. Vasquez tested positive for metabolites of Stanozolol, a performance-enhancing substance, and Tupman had a second positive test for a "drug of abuse"- an interestingly-vague choice of words that picqued my interest.

Assuming it's the same in the minors, the Major League Baseball drug policy lists the following as "drugs of abuse:" cocaine, LSD, marijuana [are you listening, Timmy?], opiates, MDMA (Ecstasy), GHB and Phencyclidine (PCP). Or, as Amy Winehouse would refer to it, "a good start to the evening." Hey, I guess when you're a 30-year old player in Double-A, guees you need to make your own entertainment... Since Matt is a free-agent, the suspension will kick in whenever he signs with a team: this news will not exactly have improved the chances of that happening.

Larry Dobrow looks at the Diamondbacks. Not really too much new there - the impact of injuries, no need to panic, the young talent which has to develop - but his take on Eric Byrnes was... Well, here you go: "Speaking of giant sucking sounds, Eric Byrnes is a great guy to have around if you need color commentary during the potato-sack race at the team picnic. Unfortunately, that's more or less where his usefulness ends. His speed and kamikaze defense is as much a relic of 2007 as that one Justin Timberlake song. You know, the one with the little falsetto flutter." He concludes by saying, "The Diamondbacks will vault past the Rockies and Giants on their way to challenging for the wild card, if not the NL West title." I'll have what he's having.

Brett Butler will be back to manage the Reno Aces in 2010. He initially interviewed for the vacant third-base position with the Marlins - ironically, this was empty because previous incumbent, Bo Porter, left to take up the same spot with the Diamondbacks. Pitching coach Mike Parrott and hitting coach Rick Burleson will also return - the former was also looking elsewhere this winter, interviewing for a spot as minor league pitching coordinator in Seattle, but didn't get it either. It'll be Butler's fifth year as a manager in the Diamondbacks organization.

A quick run through the latest activities of the Diamondbacks in winter ball. Tony Abreu has managed exactly zero walks in the two weeks since we last updated things, though his last game for Aguilas appears to have been on November 28. Not been able to find any sources explaining why, or that I can even pass to Mrs. SnakePit for translation from the Spanish. Also in the Dominican is Pedro Ciriaco, who continue a 2009 tour which has already seen him play in Mobile and Scottsdale. In Venezuela, Rusty Ryal and Gerardo Parra are seeing action: the latter put together back-to-back three-hit outings, while Ryal appears to be collecting bruises, having been hit four times in only seven games.

Some of our relievers have also entered action. Esmerling Vasquez has thrown three hitless innings in the Dominican for Estrellas de Oriente, but Juan Gutierrez's first two appearances on behalf of Leones del Caracas in Venezuela have not gone so well. In two innings, the results have been five hits and three earned runs. Gutierrez ended up taking the loss in the second game, after coming in for the eleventh with the scores tied. And with, back on to the Gastic Flu Weight-loss Diet I go. Jenny Craig, eat your heart out! I'll never laugh at "flu-like symptoms" ever again, I swear...

The 2009 'Pitties: Rookie of the Year

Jim McLennan — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 01:00:13 -0000

Why, yes - I have been waiting all year to use that picture, thank you for asking. Actually, I wanted to use one of that fan at ~~Joe Robbie Stadium~~ ~~Pro Player Park~~ ~~Pro Player Stadium~~ ~~Dolphin Stadium~~ Land Shark Stadium, who attended a May Marlins-Diamondbacks game in full Chewbacca get-up. I can think of about 29 other stadia in baseball where I'd rather wear a full-body fur suit. Before going on, however, congratulations to Ryan Roberts, who won the award for Unsung Hero of the Year, beating out Juan Gutierrez by a 2-1 margin. I trust he'll be getting our logo inked somewhere on him, to commemorate this honor.

Nine players made their major-league debuts for Arizona in 2009: Brandon Allen, Bryan Augenstein, John Hester, Trent Oeltjen, Gerardo Parra, Rusty Ryal, Daniel Schlereth, Esmerling Vasquez and Clay Zavada. They join other qualifiers Billy Buckner, Gutierrez, Bobby Korecky, Kevin Mulvey and Josh Whitesell - I've checked what I can find as far as transactions go for Buckner and I do not think he reached the 45-day cutoff for pre-September days on the roster since his debut in August 2007. If anyone knows differently, let me know and I'll cross him off . After the jump, we'll lay out the numbers for all the Diamondbacks' rookies in 2009.

	Age	G	PA	AB	R	H	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
Gerardo Parra*	22	120	491	455	59	132	5	60	5	7	25	89	.290	.324	.404	.729	85
Josh Whitesell*	27	46	133	108	7	21	1	14	0	0	24	29	.194	.346	.287	.633	64
Brandon Allen*	23	32	116	104	13	21	4	14	0	0	12	40	.202	.284	.385	.669	69
Trent Oeltjen*	26	24	73	70	11	17	3	4	3	1	1	13	.243	.250	.457	.707	76
Rusty Ryal	26	30	68	59	11	16	3	9	0	0	6	21	.271	.353	.593	.946	136
John Hester	25	15	30	28	4	7	1	4	0	0	2	7	.250	.300	.429	.729	83

	Age	W	L	ERA	G	GS	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	IBB	SO	ERA+	WHIP
Billy Buckner	25	4	6	6.40	16	13	0	77.1	94	57	55	12	29	0	64	71	1.591
Juan Gutierrez	25	4	3	4.06	65	0	9	71.0	67	33	32	2	30	5	66	113	1.366
Esmerling Vasquez	25	3	3	4.42	53	0	0	53.0	52	27	26	4	29	2	45	104	1.528
Clay Zavada*	25	3	3	3.35	49	0	0	51.0	45	22	19	5	24	2	52	136	1.353
Kevin Mulvey	24	0	3	7.04	6	4	0	23.0	23	18	18	5	12	0	18	65	1.522
Daniel Schlereth*	23	1	4	5.89	21	0	0	18.1	15	13	12	1	15	1	22	78	1.636
Bryan Augenstein	22	0	1	7.94	7	2	0	17.0	23	16	15	2	6	2	6	58	1.706
Bobby Korecky	29	0	0	13.50	5	0	0	6.0	11	9	9	0	4	0	3	34	2.500

After careful analysis, I have come up with the following five nominees for Rookie of the Year. I ummed and ahhed over including Buckner, but questions over his rookie status and the fact that, until September, he largely blew chunks, convinced me that he did not quite qualify.

Juan Gutierrez - 71 IP, 113 ERA+
[What does this "paste" button do?] Leading the team in appearances and innings of relief Gutierrez in 2009 helped make the trade of Jose Valverde look good for the Diamondbacks. The rookie made 65 appearances, and posted an ERA+ of 113, giving up only two home-runs all year - to Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth, hardly an embarrassment. After the loss of Chad Qualls at the end of August, Juan became the de facto closer, going a perfect 8-for-8 in save chances, ending the season with a perfect ninth in Wrigley. Said AJ Hinch, "He has pitched very, very well since the All-Star break. I think a lot of that can be attributed to how he is improving at getting left-handed hitters out."

Trent Oeltjen - .243/.250/.457 = .707 OPS
On August 6th, our favorite Australian baseball player - ok, the only one most of us know - replaced J-Up on the roster and became the first since at least 1954 to hit a home-run and swipe two bases during his major-league debut. He blazed across the baseball firmament for his first five games, going 12-for-24 with three HR and innumerable stolen hearts among the SnakePit Laideez. While he cooled off a bit after that (to put it mildly - his OPS after August 12 was .277!), Oeltjen's enthusiasm for the game and (I am informed) cute accent won him tons of admirers. He said "It's just something I've always wanted to do since I was little. It's been my dream. I wanted to stick it out and give it my all."
Gerardo Parra - .290/.324/.404 = .728 OPS, 60 RBI
The only Diamondback to actually receive any votes in the BBWAA ballot, was not originally expected to be on the team this year. Parra started the season down in Double-A Mobile, but was called up early on, after the loss of Conor Jackson, and wasted no time in making an impression, hitting a home-run in his first major-league at-bat and driving in runs each of his first five game. He won the Rookie of the Month award for May and trailed only the Brewers' Casey McGehee for rookie RBIs. Said Parra, "One thing I have learned is that you have to always stay focused. Sometimes things will go good, sometimes things will go bad, but you have to do the job everyday."
Rusty Ryal - .271/.353/.593 = .946 OPS
Sure, it was only thirty games, and likely completely unsustainable. But over the time after his debut on August 10th, Ryal more than held his own. The OPS Rusty posted put him in the top ten of the 302 NL players with sixty or more PAs, sandwiched right between Manny Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval. It was also the best figure by any D-back with as many PAs since Tony Clark in 2005 - mostly because eleven of Ryal's 16 hits were for extra-bases. The most memorable of these was probably the ground-rule double off Hiroki Kuroda's head, which ricocheted back into the stands behind home-plate Obscurist factoid: Ryal is a big baseball-card collector.
Clay Zavada - 51 IP, 136 ERA+
If there were a category for Heart-warming Story of the Year, it would certainly belong to Zavada. See here for why we were so delighted when he made it to the big-leagues - and when he did, both the man and his performances lived up to the myth and the legend. An instant hit with the crowds at Chase [not least at SnakePitFest], Clay also didn't allow an earned run until his twentieth appearance, six weeks after he arrived. Overall, the only AZ rookie pitcher since 2003 with a better ERA+ (in fifty IP) was Max Scherzer last year. But Zavada's attitude is perhaps even more impressive than his pitching ability. Let's finish with a couple of quotes from the man:

Every day is a great day to be here. It's the best job in the world. You don't ever have a bad day at a ballpark. If you have cleats, a glove, a hat and someone has your name on a list to be out on the field for batting practice you've got the best job in the world. That's the way I feel...

Sometimes you ask people how they are doing and they tell you they are living the dream. They're not really living the dream. There's really only one percent that is really living the dream. I'm living the dream, my dream. Not many people get to do that in their lifetime. Life's not fair. Life's not easy. So I'm just thankful... You had better have fun, you had better enjoy it and you'd better give it all you've got. Otherwise you'll regret it. And I don't want to regret it.

Poll

Who was the 2009 Diamondbacks' Rookie of the Year?

Juan Gutierrez

11 votes

Trent Oeltjen

7 votes

Gerardo Parra

89 votes

Rusty Ryal

2 votes

Clay Zavada

20 votes

129 votes | Poll has closed

The 2009 'Pitties: Unsung Hero

Jim McLennan — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 01:00:32 -0000

More photos » by Bob Levey - AP

Two of our Unsung Heroes nominees combine: Ryan Roberts singles, scoring Augie Ojeda from third base, against the Astros on Aug. 23.

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Before we head into the next set of nominations, should quickly mention that the Game of the Year award went to the 18-inning marathon against the Padres on June 7th. At five hours, 45 minutes, the longest in franchise history for more than eight years, with the teams combining to use 18 hurlers who threw 592 pitches. Can't really argue with that: it was definitely a memorable contest: as the guy in charge of writing the recap, my major feeling was relief that it was an afternoon game, not an evening one...

We move on to the fourth in our series of awards, for the Unsung Hero of the year. This is the player who made a significant contribution to the team, yet did not receive the appropriate acknowledgment - be that from the media as a whole, or here on the 'Pit - for the services rendered.

Juan Gutierrez: 71 IP,1.5 WAR

Leading the team in pitching appearances and innings of relief work, Gutierrez in 2009 helped make the trade of Jose Valverde look like a good one for the Diamondbacks. The rookie made 65 appearances, and posted an ERA+ of 113 - only two NL relievers aged 25 and younger worked seventy innings with a better ERA+ [Luke Gregerson and Jonathan Broxton]. Outside of a bad ten days in June, when he allowed nine runs in 2.1 innings, his ERA was barely three, and Gutierrez gave up only two home-runs all year - to Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth, so hardly an embarrassment. After the loss of Chad Qualls at the end of August, Juan became the de facto closer, going a perfect 8-for-8 in save chances, and ending the Diamondbacks' season with a perfect ninth in Wrigley on only ten pitches.

Augie Ojeda: 9.6 UZR, 1.5 WAR

It'd be easy to look at Ojeda's offensive numbers - .246/.340/.345, with one homer and 16 RBI in 103 games - and see a complete waste of roster space. But that would severely undervalue Ojeda's contribution to the team, especially on defense. There. Ojeda's UZR rating, combined across three positions, was the second-best on the roster, more than twice as much as any other infielder for the 2009 Diamondbacks. In 489.1 innings between second-base and short-stop, Augie committed just three errors, for a fielding percentage of .988..He was perfect at 2B, and only two major-leaguers played more innings there without an error [Craig Counsell and Nick Punto]. Last year, he was paid $712K; fangraphs.com valued him overall at $6.9m. No wonder the team is looking at bringing Augie back.

Jon Rauch: 54.1 IP, 110 ERA+ (Arizona only)

The odds of Rauch being nominated for any kind of award seemed very bleak after the opening month of the 2009 season: over his first fourteen appearances, opponents were hitting him at a .340 clip, and his ERA was 9.00. However, the seriously unsung Blowfish managed to turn it around, impressing fans not just with his pitching ability, but also the excellent character he displayed, such as pitching both ends of the Florida double-header, getting a save in the nightcap. His ERA the rest of the way with the Diamondbacks was a very respectable 2.91, and many people were sorry to see him traded to the Twins. There, he was a crucial part of Minnesota's surge to the AL Central title, allowing three runs in seventeen games down the stretch.

Ryan Roberts: 100 OPS+, 2.0 WAR

Only three Arizona players with 75+ PAs had a higher OPS+ than Roberts - getting regular games for the first time in his career, his overall numbers were also better than those of his middle-infield colleagues Stephen Drew (89) and Felipe Lopez (98). Ryan stepped it up following the departure of his heavily-tattoed team-mate, hitting .290/.374/.465 after becoming the regular second-baseman, and earning the right to have a shot at the starting job there in 2010. Roberts was Mark Reynolds' main back-up at 3B, and made a dozen starts in right-field too - using Vernon Wells' glove - to give the team a right-handed hitter out there, rather than lefties Gerardo Parra, Alex Romero or Trent Oeltjen. All this, and Roberts also became a father for the first time in August.

As a side-note, anyone know whether Ryan Roberts still qualifies as a rookie or not? I know this sounds surprising - he is 29 now, after all! - but he certainly didn't have enough PA's before this year. It's harder to tell whether he hit the pre-September limit on roster days (45); unless he was sitting on the roster without playing, I'm not inclined to think so. Though he isn't listed as a rookie on ESPN's rookie stats, that isn't really definitive. I'm just trying to work out whether he should be listed as a nominee for the next Pittie.

Poll

Who was Arizona's unsung hero in 2009?

Juan Gutierrez

31 votes

Augie Ojeda

20 votes

Jon Rauch

18 votes

Ryan Roberts

63 votes

132 votes | Poll has closed

The 2009 Diamondbacks Season, Part V: The Bullpen

Jim McLennan — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 20:15:35 -0000

More photos » by Ross D. Franklin - AP

Somehow, this pic - Qualls yelling to the bench for help after hurting his knee against Houston - sums up the bullpen's entire season...

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The Arizona bullpen allowed 271 runs and finished the season with a 4.61 ERA, both numbers which put them ahead only of Washington among National League relief corps. We've previously discussed the waking nightmare which was the eighth inning, but it's also worth taking a look at the numbers posted by the bullpen in general. How do they stack up in total? What were the issues? How might things have gone, and where do we go from here?

FIP vs. ERA
On straight ERA, as noted above, our relievers were pretty bad, even when you adjust for park factor. However, the underlying performance numbers weren't quite as horrendous. Arizona relievers had a combined line of .264/.338/.395, which is an sOPS+ of only 101, not too much worse than average. Fangraphs.com's FIP stat goes even further: the D-backs FIP was 4.02 - sixth-best in the league - with the biggest gap between that and 'actual' ERA of any team in the National League. This explains why they rated our pen at 36.1 runs above replacement, not just above average, but very close to the number (39.4) posted by the "lights out" 2007 bullpen.

The only two relievers with 10+ innings, to have a FIP higher than their ERA were Clay Zavada (FIP 3.92) and Blaine Boyer (3.34), both of which make sense. Zavada certainly benefited from the lucky scoreless streak which opened his career - his ERA the rest of the way was 5.34. And Boyer is obviously not the 2.68 ERA pitcher he was with Arizona: if he was anything like that, the Cardinals wouldn't have dumped him. Still, even if they deliver their FIP numbers in 2010, I don't think we'll mind too much. The other eight relievers all had FIP better than their ERA, the amount ranging from 0.07 (yeah, Scott Schoeneweis was as bad as he looked) to 1.06 for Juan Gutierrez.

There are various reasons why FIP can differ. It's based purely on home-runs, strikeouts and walks: you might think, "Hang on - the number of hits that stay in the park is irrelevant?" But the problem there, is that those do depend on the defense, so are not a good measure of pitching ability. I'll go into more detail about our glovework in the final part of this series, but Arizona's defensive efficiency - the percentage of balls turned into outs - was below average. If it seems counter-intuitive that you put H, K and HR into a mathematical blender and get a number that means anything, studies have shown that FIP is a better indicator of future performance than ERA.

Win Probability
However, the Hardball Times Win Probability Added is less convinced, saying our relievers cost Arizona 2.81 wins, this year ahead only of Pittsburgh and Washington. This is the same Win Probability we graph after every game; the winning team has 0.5 of a win to divide up, and the losers -0.5 blame. Over the entire season, our hitters "cost" Arizona 6.53 wins, and our starting pitching 1.67. [The total, not by coincidence, is 11, the number we were below .500] However, you should remember the value of a performance is radically dependent on when it happens. As Dave Studeman points out, "If a player hits a home run in the ninth inning of a 1-0 game, he is credited with more WPA points than if he hits a home run in the first inning of a 1-0 game."

The late innings will tend to have more leverage as a result, though given the bullpen threw about half the innings of the starters, to be "responsible" for more losses than the rotation isn't good. Still, the implication is that the offense was a bigger problem for the team in 2009 than the pitching in total. For context, it 2008, the bullpen WPA was -1.16 wins and in 2007, it was a stunning +7.48 victories. This is likely a reflection of the huge number of close contests in which that team was involved. Almost one-third (52) were decided by one-run, and when you get into the late innings of such games, every out has a very significant impact on Win Probability.

Was the bullpen overtaxed?
Not apparently. The average team saw 2,184 PAs dealt with by their relievers last season; Arizona saw fractionally less than that, at 2,122 - it clearly helped to have one of the most durable starters in the league, in Dan Haren, whose IP/start was 6.95, fourth-best in the league. Jon Garland (6.18, 24th) and Doug Davis (5.98, 34th) were also above the NL-average of 5.82. The Diamondbacks were also the least-likely team to use a reliever on back-to-back days: this happened only 80 times, the most common subjects being Gutierrez and Rauch, each eleven times. However, the results of such outings were good, with a 3.67 ERA.

The only reliever who worked more than 55 innings for the Diamondbacks was Gutierrez, who threw 71 innings [Rauch and Tony Peña were both around the same for the year, combining the totals for their two teams], which was not enough to put him among the top thirty 'pure' relievers in the majors. By appearances, his 65 games was only ranked #70, though Rauch ended up =13th by that metric. Arizona were right in the middle of the pack with regard to asking our relievers to get more than three outs too, so overall, workload doesn't appear to have been much of an issue for the bullpen as a whole.

Inherited issues
What did seem to be a problem was the bullpen's problem with inherited runners. Across the league, 30% of inherited runners scored, but for the Diamondbacks' relievers, that number was 38%, the worst figure in the NL. Only two relievers were below league average, and that fractionally: Scott Schoeneweis and Leo Rosales both came in at 29%, and the brevity of the former's appearances were likely a factor. From there, things only get worse, all the way up to Blaine Boyer (8 of 17 inherited runners scored, 47%) and Daniel Schlereth (7 of 12, 58%). Obviously, while we are talking small sample size here, and not all inherited runners are created equal, the overall numbers are significant enough to indicate a problem.

The Arizona bullpen: anti-clutch in action
A major driving factor in a pitcher's ERA will be how they perform with runners in scoring position - as we saw with Doug Davis this year, you can get away with allowing a lot of base-runners, as long as you don't let them get past third-base. This was something our bullpen didn't do last season. The Diamondbacks' OPS for their relievers across all situations in 2009 was .734: they can be divided into three groups by their performance with runners in scoring position (min. 30 such PAs):

    Significantly better: Leo Rosales (.653), Tony Peña (.655), Esmerling Vasquez (.686)
    There or thereabouts: Chad Qualls (.728), Juan Gutierrez (.730),
    Significantly worse: Blaine Boyer (.779), Jon Rauch (.853), Clay Zavada (.959), Scott Schoeneweis (1.078), Daniel Schlereth (1.192)

This would explain the high ERA; not just the raw number of pitchers, but the disparity. We had four relievers whose OPS was 100 points or more worse than bullpen average, when they had runners in scoring position, compared to none who were that much better. Avoiding such a skewed result in 2010 will certainly help. Harder to say whether it's something that can be addressed, or is just a question of waiting for regression to the mean.

What might have been
The front-office got criticism for letting Brandon Lyon and Juan Cruz walk at the end of 2008, and it's fair to say that the arms they brought to Arizona instead, Schoeneweis and Tom Gordon, were dismal failures. Admittedly, the former's problema could in no way have been foreseen, and completely derailed the year. Before his wife's death, Scott had an ERA of 2.53; after, it exploded to 10.80. But in the final analysis, he is just another in a long line of disappointing LOOGY's brought in by the team: see also Randy Choate, Mike Myers, Eddie Oropesa, etc. Since Myers in 2002, no free-agent southpaw reliever has had an ERA+ above 100 for Arizona.

Gordon was a low-risk roll of the die, but even at that, it must have been disappointing to get no more than 1.2 innings and a 21.60 ERA from the veteran. He only cost $600K, but one assumes the budget included the maximum Gordon may have earned, $3m. Between the price of him and Schoeneweis ($2m), the team could certainly have done better. Looing at the players we let go, Juan Cruz signed a two-year, $6m contract with the Royals, but had an ERA of 5.72, with a strikeout rate almost cut in half (from 12.4 K/9 to 6.4). Allowing Cruz to walk now seems wise, and Kansas City will be hoping for much better in 2010.

At first glance, Brandon Lyon was excellent with the Tigers, holding opponents to a .205 average and posting a 2.86 ERA, that seemed to justify fully his $4m deal, and likely sets him up for a big pay-day this winter. However, Lyon did have a freakishly-low BABIP of .229, leading to a FIP above four - the difference put him in the top 20 among major-league relievers. Still, signing him for $4m and getting anything like his actual performance would have been a much better deal for Arizona than Gordon and Schoeneweis.

2010?
From statements so far, it does appear that one or more arms will be added to the bullpen in the off-season. We'll be discussing this in more detail in due course, but I imagine the core is alreay present, in Qualls, Gutierrez, Vasquez and Zavada. Boyer and Schlereth would also seem to have a potential role, though use of the latter in high-leverage situations still concerns me. I still wouldn't mind us spending $5 million or so of the estimated $28m available on a couple of decent arms: I think "reliable" is the key-word there. Rather than us taking a risk on anyone like Gordon, we want someone who we know will contribute.

The last installment of this series will follow, probably next Monday. There, we'll be looking at defense and base-running, and their impact on the team's performance last season.

The 2009 Diamondbacks Season, Part IV: The Eighth-inning Retch

Jim McLennan — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 15:00:22 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

Jon Rauch waits for the bases to clear after giving up a a three run homer to Travis Ishikawa during the eighth on August 25 in San Francisco. Or "business as usual," as we called the eighth inning in Arizona.

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Arizona fans will have nightmares about the eighth inning for most of the winter. The team allowed 120 runs there, 15 more than the next worst frame. Two particularly savage meltdowns come to mind. On June 2nd in Los Angeles, seven stellar innings of one-run ball by Dan Haren and a 5-1 lead were undone in the space of three outs from Tony Peña and Daniel Schlereth, as the Dodgers scored five times. And then, on July 9th at Chase, the Marlins inflicted the first ten-spot on us since August 2005, sending fourteen men to the plate as the Diamondbacks blew a seven-run lead for the first time in franchise history.

While perhaps the worst incidents, those were far from the only times the eighth inning proved troublesome. On no less than eighteen occasions, Arizona's opposition scored three times or more: no team in the majors had a worse inning this year. After the jump, we'll break down the numbers, see what kind of impact it had on our W-L record, and who were the guilty men in the bullpen.

To some extent, the reputation of the eighth inning exceeds the reality. While I know it probably didn't feel that way, the vast majority of the time (in 106 games), our pitching staff posted a mundane, competent zero. And despite the high number of runs allowed, the team wasn't actually all that much worse at blowing late-inning leads than average. The graph below shows our win percentage (the lower line) when ahead at the end of an inning, compared to MLB average (the upper line).

If there's a problem here, it seems to have been our issue keeping first-inning leads, not going into the eighth. The 2009 Diamondbacks actually had a losing record there, going 16-20 when they ended the opening frame up. In comparison, MLB teams won better than two of three overall. Of course, this doesn't say, when the leads were lost. However, after shrinking then remain constant from the second through the fifth, the gap gradually narrows. In the eighth inning, we won when ahead 86.2% of the time, compared to MLB average 90.6%. That translates only to about 2.6 less victories than expected.

Looking closer, there's no denying the eighth inning sucked for our pitchers, but it didn't often cost us the lead. We were ahead 58 times going into the eighth - in 53 of those games, we still had the lead leaving it. It may have been a smaller lead, certainly, but that's still a better 'save percentage' than any other frame bar the ninth. However, when you include tied games in the equation, the balance shifts dramatically. Of the nineteen times Arizona were tied at the start of the dreaded eighth, they led after it only twice - they were still tied eight times, and were behind nine. Given our record when trailing at that point was 2-85, those deficits almost certainly became losses.

The numbers in the eighth were startling, especially when compared to the seventh: batting average increased from .254 to .295, though this may largely be explained by an increase in BABIP from a reasonable .302 to .335. Equally as responsible for the spike in opposition scoring are the 19 home-runs allowed. While far from the most given up by our pitchers (that'd be the 32 during the fourth), 47.4% of the eighth-inning blasts came with men on base - including the only grand-slam we allowed in 2009, off Clay Zavada by Angel Pagan, in Citi Field on August 1st. That compares to 38.7% of our homers overall. The same goes for hits with men in scoring position: the opposition batted .267 there overall, but in the eighth, the figure increased to .338.

So, the numbers there were a combination of factors: bad luck in BABIP, inability to keep the ball in the park, especially with runners on base, and clutch hitting by the opposition. Let's now break it down and see which of our pitchers were most often used in the eighth inning, and then take a look and see how they did. Put another way: "Hooray! I get to use another diagram!" And here it is:

Jon Rauch, Juan Gutierrez and Peña were the main workhorses, combining for 38.2% of the plate-appearances. Rauch was substantially the least effective of the trio, with an .820 OPS against, compared to .744 for Gutierrez and a very-impressive line from Vasquez, .181/ .298/.236. That's a .534 OPS, with no home-runs and three extra-base hits in 72 at-bats. At the other end of the spectrum, two whose numbers stood out in a bad way: Blaine Boyer and Scott Schoeneweis. The former was hit at a .396 clip in the eighth, but in mitigation, this was with a ..438 BABIP, and he allowed only four extra-bases and no homers. Not so Schoeneweis: his performance was 19-for-50 with four home-runs, for an OPS of 1.076.

The good news is, I am disinclined to expect a re-occurrence in 2010. To start with, there'll be no Schoeneweis, Rauch and Peña, and with regard to the eighth, the first two in particular were more problem than solution. A return of BABIP and opposition clutch towards more normal levels is also likely. However, avoiding multi-run homers and sound defensive baseball would also be helpful - not that there is anything particular different about the eighth inning, compared to any other. That said, I think I won't be alone in feeling pangs of concern until Gutierrez, Vasquez, Zavada or whoever gets to work the inning next year, shows that it's just a number between seven and nine.

I'll hold over a more general analysis of our bullpen numbers this year until next time. :-)

Diamondbacks 7, Padres 4: Win One for the Buckner

DbacksSkins — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 23:24:26 -0000

More photos » by AARON J. LATHAM - AP

Chad Tracy watches what might be his last home run at Chase Field.

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The Arizona Diamondbacks Professional Base Ball Club gathered at a small field in the warehouse district of downtown Phoenix today for a friendly with the San Diego Padres Professional Base Ball Club. Several spectators came out to watch the match, as it was the Club's final outing in Arizona until early next year. Throwing on behalf of the Arizona side was a young fellow named William Buckner, and for the San Diego side, an immigrant gentleman by the name of Edward Mujica. Hitting "home runs", an exciting happenstance wherein a batter hits a ball completely out of the field of play, were a down-home North Carolina boy named Chad Tracy as well as a Mexican-American fellow named Adrian Gonzalez. Registering a win for our dear old home side was Buckner, while Mujica notched his 5th loss of the year for San Diego. Details of this jovial event can be found by turning to the athletics page of this news paper.

Record: 68-88. Pace: 71-91. Change on last season: -9

Billy Buckner pitched seven innings of three hit baseball to get the win, but narrowly missed tossing his second quality start at home this season. Buckner was perfect the first time through the order, but the first three batters in the Padres lineup all scored before Buckner recorded an out the second time through, on a walk to Tony Gwynn, a David Eckstein single severely misplayed by Justin Upton, and Adrian Gonzalez's 40th home run of the season, a pool shot. Buckner quickly settled down to get the next nine batters in order, but a leadoff walk to Chase Headley to start the 7th inning scored on a double by Drew Macias to rob Buckner's chances at a QS. However, Buckner struck out Henry Blanco and Everth Cabrera to end the inning and leave with the lead. Billy fell one short of his career high with 7 strikeouts and came within one out of his longest career outing, going 7 innings. He allowed only 3 hits and 2 walks, but 4 of those 5 baserunners came around to score.

Esmerling Vasquez came on to pitch the 8th, and after going 3-0 on Luis Durango, Mark Reynolds came out to the mound to talk to Vasquez. Whatever he said must have worked, because he came back to strike out Durango and followed with a groundout by Gwynn. Eckstein was able to squirt a ground ball through the infield, and after LOOGY Scott Schoeneweis failed to retire Adrian Gonzalez, AJ Hinch brought in Juan Gutierrez for a 4-out save. Non-closer Gutierrez immediately struck out Chase Headley to end the dreaded 8th inning without a run, and pitched around singles by Blanco and Cabrera in the 9th to get his 8th save of the year and grab saves in consecutive games for the first time since the 15th of this month, and only his second 1+ inning save of the season; his only other coming on May 26th against these same Padres in 5 outs.

On the offensive side of the game, Chad Tracy was the star, coming a triple away from the cycle in his probable final Dbacks home game, scoring two and driving in himself on the homer. Batting behind Tracy, Augie Ojeda, who very well might have played in HIS last Dbacks home game, also had three hits with two doubles, driving in three and scoring two. No other Diamondback had more than a single hit, although only Reynolds went ohfer among the starters. Justin Upton reached 3x on a single and two walks. Stephen Drew went 1-5 but made it count, driving in two runs on a double in the bottom of the 6th to give the Dbacks the lead.

Both teams were scoreless until the 4th inning. Tracy and Augie hit back to back doubles and Buckner helped himself out with a single to make the score 3-2 in favor of the visitor, while Chad's solo homer to the pool area in the bottom of the 6th tied the game. The 3rd video review of the homestand confirmed the homer, after a fan apparently reached up above Tony Gwynn's glove. Gwynn argued for interference, but the crew chief disagreed upon video review. Augie singled and Chris Young walked in front of Droo, who gave the home team a lead they wouldn't relinquish. Our Venezuelan dynamic duo of Miguel Montero and Gerardo Parra both singled to allow Augie to drive in the final two runs of the game, capping the scoring at 7-4 in favor of the good guys.

[Click to enlarge at fangraphs.com]
Badass of the Day: Augie Ojeda, +25.4%
Also mavericky: Stephen Drew, +18.4%; Chad Tracy, +15.9%
Boarding the bus to Reno: Mark Reynolds, -11.3%

It was a quick game, just 2 hours and 33 minutes, and finished our season series with San Diego at a satisfying 11-7 in favor of the Snakes. Attendance was just over 30k souls for the last home game of the season, down nine thousand from Mark Reynolds Night but still third highest for a Sunday home game this season and the highest since August 16th against the Dodgers.

A Wolf-like 359 comments in the gameday thread, led by soco, the only poster to break triple digits, followed by me and hotclaws. Posters included Azreous, soco, emilylovesthedbacks, hotclaws, DbacksSkins, Wailord, mrs snakepit, NASCARbernet, kishi, katers, and a cameo appearance by ChrisHansen. Now, all of you should go watch the home team Arizona Cardinals beat AJforAZ's Indianapolis Colts on national TV!

[Update: audio clippage. At the moment, from AJ Hinch talking before the game, reviewing the "disappointing" 2009 season, but saying he believes we can contend next season.]

Audio courtesy of KTAR 620

Diamondbacks 7, Rockies 5: From Dusk Till Dawn

DbacksSkins — Sat, 19 Sep 2009 05:38:52 -0000

More photos » by AARON J. LATHAM - AP

Dbacks color guy Matt Williams' sporadic dip into statistical language tonight can mean only one thing: Hell might be freezing over, and Jason Marquis' 2009 deal with the devil might be finished.

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Record: 65-83 Pace: 71-91 Change on last season: -8

The Dbacks came one game closer to winning the NL Wild Card tonight, knocking the Rockies off a game and bringing themselves within 19 games of the WC leader with 14 left to play. No, but seriously, the Diamondbacks continued to play the Rockies tough in 2009, bringing the season series between the teams to 7-9, but needing to win the next two games in order to overcome that ugly sweep in Coors two weekends ago and earn a season split.

After getting off to a rough, Kevin Mulvey-driven start, the Diamondbacks rallied for a come-from-behind victory and held on to win against the Colorado Rockies. Brandon Allen had a two-run, game-tying homer, Ryan Roberts had two hits, two walks, and a solo shot of his own, Stephen Drew decided to read Jim's article and had two line-drive singles, Gerardo Parra had a two-RBI double off the glove of Brad Hawpe, and Mulvey and the bullpen combined to allow only 1 run after the 3rd inning. Details, as always, after the jump.

Kevin Mulvey started out his second major league start by giving up a double to Carlos Gonzalez, a former Dbacks farmhand who hit a homer off him in his Dbacks debut last week. After getting Snakekiller Seth Smith out on a fly ball and Todd Helton on a grounder, it appeared as though he might escape without damage. However, consecutive walks to the Tool and Rockies All Star Brad Hawpe loaded the bases for Yorvit Torrealba, who is currently hitting over 1.00 with RISP. (Seriously. He's like 18-16 or something) Torrealba lined a single to CY in center. BAM! Rox 2, Dbacks 0. Mulvey struck out Ian Stewart to end the threat and advance to the bottom.

However, the Dbacks were facing mighty Jason ZOMGZ USED TO BE LEEDING THE NL IN WINZ!!! Marquis, (Not to be confused with ZOMGZSanchez) who promptly gave a run back. Chris Young singled to lead off the bottom, Stephen Drew followed with a single of his own, but Justin Upton, the best hitter on the team, tried to lay down a bunt, presumably for a hit. He was tagged out, and one has to wonder why, exactly, he would do such a thing. In retrospect, it ended up paying off as a sac bunt, as Miguel Montero drove the ball deep to RF to bring in CY on an arc that nearly left the park. Mark Reynolds, who finished 0-3 but with a walk, popped out to end the inning.

The teams traded 0's in the second, which was probably slightly less impressive for Mulvey, who was facing the Rockies' 8, 9, and leadoff hitters. After issuing a 2 out walk to his nemesis, Carlos Gonzalez, a terrible jump and a strong throw by Miguel Montero caught CarGon trying to steal 2nd for the 3rd out. In the bottom of the inning, Gerardo Parra reciprocated by erasing his own leadoff walk on a CS, and after a Ryan Roberts walk, Brandon Allen and Mulvey struck out to end it. In the third, Mulvey continued his "2 on, 2 off, 2 on, 2 off" pattern by allowing a single to Smith and a homer to short left by Tulowitzki, and Marquis struck out the Dbacks' 1-2-3 hitters in the bottom of the inning. Sign of things to come?

Um, no. Mulvey followed with his own 3-up, 3-down inning, and Miggy led off the bottom of the 4th with a deep double. Reynolds bounced into a very strange play where Miggy took off for 3rd, thought better of it, then slid back into 2nd. Meanwhile, Toolo fielded the ball but, seeing Miggy running right in front of him, ran towards him to get the out, before realizing that he needed to toss it to Clint Barmes instead, who completely miffed the tag. First and second, no outs.

The no out situation was quickly rectified by Gerardo Parra, who did one of the two things he does best: grounded into a double play, erasing Mark at 2nd but sending Miggy to 3rd. Roberts, however, singled with a liner of his own to score Montero, and Brandon Allen flexed his muscles, sending a 3-2 pitch low in the zone out onto the pool deck in right center and tying the game, for his 4th home run of his brief rookie season. Trent Oeltjen pinch hit for Mulvey but struck out. Following the game, AJ Hinch commented that if the Dbacks had still been behind his next time up, Mulvey would have hit for himself, but with a tie game and a chance to win it, he opted to bring in the bullpen.

At the time, the decision to bring in Daniel Schlereth was met by a collective groan in the Snakepit Gameday Thread, as Dbacks fans everywhere penned their suicide notes. Son of Stink responded by pitching two perfect 1-2-3 innings in a row, while the Dbacks wasted offensive opportunities in the 5th and 6th. A 2 out Upton double went for naught in the 5th, as did two 1-out walks and one 2-out walk in the 6th, when the New And Improved Chris Young reverted to Old And Fail Chris Young, popping out to Barmes with the bases juiced.

Leo Rosales pitched a perfect 7th for the *SPOILER ALERT* win, and the Dbacks finally broke through against the Rockies' bullpen in the bottom. Manager Jim Tracy brought in LOOGY Randy Flores, who promptly gave up another line-drive single to Droo into LF. Tracy pulled his lefty for a righty, who got two quick K's of Upton and Montero before Reynolds showed remarkable patience in drawing a full-count walk. Parra came to bat again, and did that OTHER thing he does really well, by getting a double with RISP -- well, maybe we should call this a "Coors Field double". The deep fly ball to RF bounced off the tip of Hawpe's glove, bounced off the wall, and rolled around to give Droo and Reynolds time to score. Parra was thrown out trying to stretch it into a triple for the 3rd out, but the Dbacks had their first lead over Colorado since the 6th inning of the first game in the Coors sweep.

Hinch brought in Scott Schoeneweis for a perfect 8th, and Power Hitter Ryan Roberts led off the bottom with his 7th home run of the season, in a sign that it might just be Arizona's night.

Juan Gutierrez, the Dbacks' de facto closer, pitched himself out of a sticky situation in the 9th for his 6th save. Gutierrez walked Hawpe to lead off and gave up consecutive singles to Torrealba and Stewart to make it 7-5, allowing only his 2nd run of the last 13 innings. With no outs and runners on 1st and 2nd, Gutierrez responded by striking out pinch hitters Jason Giambi and Garret Atkins and getting CarGon to pop out harmlessly to Miggy to end it.

It was a game that got pretty dark, pretty quickly, but the Arizona side fought their way back for another comeback win, and have now taken 3 of 4 after going 1-9 in their previous 10. After allowing 5 earned runs in 3 of his last 4 starts against the powerful Giants, Mets, and Padres offenses, Jason ZOMGWINZ Marquis rebounded against the Dbacks to give up merely 4 earned over 6. Mulvey, on the other hand, preserved his perfect Mark Grace-esque ERA of 9.00, a trend we'll be glad to see end eventually... hopefully.

[Click to enlarge, at fangraphs.com]
Badass of the Day: Ryan Roberts, +19.0%
Also mavericky: Parra, +16.9%; Schlereth, +14.5%; Allen, +13.4%
Boarding the bus to Reno: Kevin Mulvey, -21.7%
Should have stayed in bed: Chris Young, -12.3%

Pretty typical come-from-behind WP graph, with the Dbacks coming back from about an 80% chance to lose in the 4th inning. Also, the Diamondbacks got into Taco Territory for the first time in September, with a run to spare, no less. Oh joy!

In the gameday thread, which ended up with nearly 660 comments, the top poster was.... well, me, with soco coming in second with 156. NASCARbernet (63) and Jim (62) were the next two, and the only other posters with more than 47. Commenters included kishi, 4 Corners Fan, DbacksSkins, katers, friendly visiting fan coolopotamous, soco, AcucracK, snakecharmer, hotclaws, Jim McLennan, emilylovesthedbacks, eel, luckycc, asteroid, NASCARbernet, mrssoco, jazzbo13, piratedan7, Scrbl, and Wailord. Our GDT was narrowly pipped by Purple Row's, who outcommented us 664-657. (Note that both GDT's were narrowly pipped by Purple Row's Overflow Thread, with an additional 795 comments. Oh well, you win some, you lose some?)

Normal 5:10PM saturday start tomorrow, with young Mad Max Scherzer facing off against young Jason "Kinda Looks Like A Monkey" Hammel. Will the Dbacks win to take the series and keep the hopes alive of a season split? Or will the Rockies drive another stake into the hearts of the Giants? Will more random Rockies-eating bears show up in the Gameday Thread? Tune in tomorrow to find out!

That's not a rattler - it's just a little garter snake

Poseidon's Fist — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 18:00:20 -0000

More photos » by Denis Poroy - AP

Perhaps a bigger surprise than the Rockies' resurgence in the NL West this season has been that the Diamondbacks have allowed the Padres to beat them into the divisional cellar.

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This has truly been a miserable season for the Diamondbacks. I didn't truly realize just how miserable until today.

Arizona is on pace to go 71-91 this season, their third worst season in franchise history. Only their inaugural season in 1998 (65-97) and that sorry 2004 team (51-111) has finished below 76 wins. Just for your comparison, the Rockies have 91 losses just thrice - 1993, 2004 and 2005. And this Arizona team was almost universally expected to finish in the top three in the NL West, with several projections placing them atop the division.

Losing their ace and cleanup hitter from 2008 for the season sure doesn't help, but the futility doesn't just come from those two players' absences. Anyone that had Arizona 24 games out at this point needs their own TV show.

Naturally, in all things sensical, it is the D-Backs that are just coming off a near sweep of the Padres, breaking San Diego's six-series win streak in the process. This after losing 9 of their last 10 games. After winning their last five games in August, Arizona is 4-11 in September. Baseball can be so random at times.

With one win in the series, Colorado will clinch the season series from Arizona, quite the rebound from the 3-15 mark they put up last season. Arizona's pitiful 32-40 home record bests only Washington, Cleveland and Kansas City for the worst home marks in the league, and given the Rockies are 38-37 on the road, the home field advantage for the series is flat non-existent.

Go hang out at AZ Snakepit. They are good people.

Scoreboard Watch

San Francisco (3.5 game lead) @ Los Angeles (5GB). Vicente Padilla vs Jonathan Sanchez. Jon Garland vs. Brad Penny. Randy Wolf vs. Tim Lincecum.

Atlanta (4.5) vs. Philadelphia. Tim Hudson vs. J.A, Happ. Javier Vazquez vs. Pedro Martinez. Tommy Hanson vs. Cliff Lee.

Florida (5) @ Cincinnati. Rick VandenHurk vs. Homer Bailey. Ricky Nolasco vs. Bronson Arroyo. Sean West vs. Kip Wells.

Arizona Diamondbacks (64-83, L1, 5th, 24 GB)

Friday-Sunday: 3-game series at Chase Field

The Bats: C

As Rockies fans know, it is hard to have a functioning offense with automatic outs in the lineup. All season, Arizona has suffered with whoever was playing in CF or 1B (and in LF before Conor Jackson left). With Brandon Allen showing signs of life and Chris Young heating up finally like D-Back fans prayed for all season, the easy outs are harder to come by. They still have terrible OBP at the top of the lineup, but there's a considerable power threat from the top five in the batting order.

For the season, they have the 4th worst batting average in the NL and MLB in spite of enjoying the benefits of Chase Field. Their 158 HR are 4th in the NL, easing them up to 10th in the NL in wOBA. They are middle of the pack in runs scored with 652, 8th in the NL. But with Chris Young starting to hit, the lineup is more dangerous than has been this season thus far.

LINEUP	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA	OPS+
Chris Young - CF	.206	13	38	.307	.399	.312	80
Stephen Drew - SS	.257	12	58	.321	.432	.323	91
Justin Upton - RF	.308	24	76	.377	.550	.399	134
Miguel Montero - C	.300	14	53	.361	.487	.362	115
Mark Reynolds - 3B	.272	42	97	.363	.571	.398	135
Gerardo Parra - LF	.293	5	54	.324	.408	.315	87
Ryan Roberts - 2B	.271	6	21	.362	.401	.341	96
Brandon Allen - 1B	.224	3	24	.306	.421	.309	84

AJ Hinch has juggled his lineup in response to hot streaks (Young/Upton) and cold streaks (Drew/Reynolds/Roberts), also optimizing the left/right combo to the full extent. However, to do so, he had to put Chris Young back at the leadoff spot, drop Ryan Roberts - who has hit just as well as Felipe Lopez did - to 7th, and drop their best hitter and MLB's 2nd leading home run hitter to 5th. Even considering the streaks involved, It doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me.

Via OPS+, Upton and Reynolds are strong All-Star caliber hitters and Montero is solidly above average. Roberts is about average, Drew is a slightly below, Parra is moderately below while Allen and Young have been relative deadweights.

Chad Tracy (.227, 6, 34), Rusty Ryal (.262, 2, 3) and Augie Ojeda (.235, 1, 13) are Hinch's backup infielders. Alex Romero (.259, 1, 18), Eric Byrnes (.216, 6, 26) and Trent Oeltjen (.246, 3, 4) are on the bench as OFers while Luke Carlin (3-for-17) and John Hester (5-for-15, 1 HR) are the reserve backstops.

Hop after the jump for the scouting report on the arms, the D, the pitching matchups and the hot/cold players.

The Arms: B-

The Diamondbacks will throw out their top two starts for the series, including rejuvinated OMGace Dan Haren. Scherzer and Haren have faced the Rockies in the same series once this season, with Arizona taking that series in Coors Field (although Scherzer actually lost his game). Kevin Mulvey is no better than any of the pitchers we feasted on against the Mets or Reds.

Juan Gutierrez has arguably been the best reliever for Arizona this season and has taken a strangehold on the closer's role after Chad Qualls went down.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Juan Gutierrez	4-3	60	0	0	0	5	1	65.0	60	29	28	2	29	60	3.88	1.37

Gutierrez is joined in the pen by lefties Daniel Schlereth, Scott Schoeneweis and Clay Zavada as well as right handers Blaine Boyer, Bryan Augenstein, Daniel Cabrera, Leo Rosales, Yusmeiro Petit and Esmerling Vasquez.

The D: C+

Arizona has been 2nd in MLB in errors for most of the season, and they sit eight behind Washington's league high 124. UZR-wise, their season-long range marks grade out above average, as they are 9th in the league. Parra, Reynolds, Allen and Young are graded as weak by UZR, while the rest of the lineup is solid, led by Upton's 8.0 UZR/150.

The Ballpark: VERY STRONG hitter's park

Chase Field has officially taken the torch from Coors Field as the NL's best hitters park. This year, Chase is playing at a Baseball-Reference park factor of 108, clearly stronger even than Coors Field's 105/106 (both have multi-year factors of 107). The park is extremely friendly to home runs and triples, giving a good shot in the arm for doubles as well.

Probable Pitchers:

Tonight, 6:40 pm MDT

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jason Marquis	15-11	34	29	2	1	0	0	195.1	193	88	82	13	64	98	3.78	1.32

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Kevin Mulvey	0-1	3	1	0	0	0	0	7.0	12	7	7	2	3	5	9.00	2.14

Frankly, I'm a little worried about Jason Marquis, who has been poor in three of his last four starts. It is the first time all year he has given up 5+ ER three times in four starts, and he was facing three of the most anemic offenses in the league in Sad Diego, San Francisco and New York. The only time he has faced Arizona this season was in his third start of the year, when he allowed 6 ER on 9 hits (2 HR) in 5 IP at Chase Field. Luckily, he's drawing the weakest of starters for Arizona. Kevin Mulvey stepped into the rotation in place of Yusmeiro Petit with no big league starts under his belt. The waiver wire pickup from Minnesota got knocked around in his start Saturday while wearing a "Los DBacks" jersey, allowing 6 ER on 11 hits in 4 IP to Milwaukee. In his appearance before that, he served up a home run to Carlos Gonzalez and walked three Rockies. He utilizes a high-80's fastball, low-80's slider, mid-70's curve and will mix in a changeup now and again. Favors: ROCKIES moderately

Saturday, September 19, 5:10 pm MDT

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jason Hammel	8-8	30	27	1	0	0	0	156.1	184	85	76	13	39	112	4.38	1.43

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Max Scherzer	9-9	29	28	0	0	0	0	160.0	158	87	72	18	55	162	4.05	1.33

Just when I started heaping uninhibited praise on Hammel, he broke his 8-game 3ER or less streak, allowing four to the Giants at AT&T. One very unpublicized part of Hammel's game is his 0.75HR/9, which is absolutely fantastic for a fifth starter for the Rockies. Part of that has been his filthy curveball, which Fangraphs has rated as 7th best in MLB, sandwiched in between Barry Zito and Chris Carpenter. Nice company. He threw two scoreless innings in relief at Chase Field in April and allowed 3 ER in 6 IP Sept 4 at Coors against the D-Backs. After suffering a miserable August, Max Scherzer has rebounded a bit in September, allowing 1 ER in two of his 3 starts. The heterochromic right-hander faced the Rockies twice this year, both times at Coors in July, having success neither night. He allowed 9 runs (7 earned) in 10 innings, serving up home runs to Troy Tulowitzki and Ian Stewart, This is a fairly even pitching matchup. Hammel has the better FIP, but Scherzer has the better tRA. Favors: DRAW

Sunday, September 20, 1:10 MDT

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Ubaldo Jimenez	13-11	30	30	1	0	0	0	198.0	170	81	78	12	75	173	3.55	1.24

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Dan Haren	14-8	34	30	3	1	0	0	209.1	166	68	65	25	32	201	2.79	.95

After being consistent for so long, it's odd to say Ubaldo has not given us what we wanted to see the last two starts. Tuesday at AT&T was the kind of abomination we ought to expect every once in a while, as even aces have bad games. Coming off that hamstring injury, one might think the leg contributed to the poor start. But I didn't see any evidence of that - I saw rust. If he can get Ian Stewart to play third and get back into his routine, we'll see the Ubaldo of old. After four weeks of struggles from mid-July to mid-August, Dan Haren has returned back into a forceful hurler. Since getting lit up in Philly, he has allowed no more than 3 ER in 5 straight starts. He did allow home runs in 9 of his last 10 starts before pitching in the land dingers go to die his last outing, so he could be vulnerable to the heavy hitters at Chase. Combine that with the fact that he walks no one and strikes out plenty, and the Rockies need to be very aggressive to achieve success. Overall, Haren has a slight edge over Jimenez in tRA and FIP. The two locked horns on July 5, with Haren besting Jimenez in the rubber game 4-3. Favors: DIAMONDBACKS slightly

My take: This series isn't absolutely essential in terms of the wild card. The Giants and Dodgers will beat up on each other. The Marlins are probably out of it as is and the Braves will get all they can handle against Philly. Even with a series loss, they'll still be in prime position. Now that I'm done sandbagging, the pitching matchups give the Rockies a solid chance in every game and there's no reason to drop this series. Rox take two,

Chris Young is hitting a stout .302/.373/.698 (.438 wOBA) for the month of September with 6 HR. Starting with the series at Coors Field two weeks ago, the CF has hit safely in 10 of 12 games. His previous best stretch of 10 games with hits was 16 games to start the season. Gerardo Parra is hitting .367 and Miguel Montero .327 this month. Juan Gutierrez has permitted just one run in his last 12.1 IP.

Ryan Roberts is hitting only .152 (7-for-46) in September, while Eric Byrnes, Stephen Drew, Mark Reynolds and Brandon Allen are all batting at a .220 clip or worse since the monthly calendar flip. Daniel Schlereth just gave up four runs in his last outing, Daniel Cabrera threw three scoreless innings in his last relief appearance, but in his only other appearance this month, he faced 5 Rockies and all scored in his D-Backs debut.

Chad Qualls is out with a nasty knee injury he sustained August 30 and will not return this season. Conor Jackson (Valley Fever - 5/12) and Brandon Webb (shoulder - 4/7) are also on the 60-day and have essentially provided no value to the team all year. Eric Byrnes (fractured hand - 6/26), Chris Snyder (lower back - 8/23) is on the 15-day. Snyder may still return this year - everyone else has been shut down for the season.

Poll

Good series?

A sweep is always good, yeah.

40 votes

It's a series win on the road vs Haren and Scherzer. That's a yes

104 votes

Losing the series hurts, but we'll still be in good position for the playoffs, and that's all that matters

19 votes

Swept by Arizona. THE SKY IS FALLING!

12 votes

175 votes | Poll has closed

Dodgers Throw One Away In Phoenix

Eric Stephen — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 05:53:55 -0000

More photos » by Matt York - AP

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Going up against Dan Haren is always a tough task, but the Dodgers held their own tonight. Still, it wasn't enough, as a throwing error by Ramon Troncoso in the bottom of the ninth led to the winning run scoring to give the Diamondbacks a 4-3 win.

Gerrardo Parra led off the ninth with a comebacker to Troncoso, but his throw tailed away from James Loney, allowing Parra to reach second base. A sacrifice bunt put Parra on third base with one out, and Joe Torre elected to walk the bases loaded, hoping for a double play of some sort. However, as is seemingly often the case, having a pitcher intentionally walk two straight batters comes back to haunt him. Troncoso, despite throwing five strikes (including four foul balls and a called ball), walked Mark Reynolds to end the game.

Both teams had back-to-back solo home runs early, including James Loney's 11th home run of the season in the fourth inning. Loney has now tied Willie Davis, with the most home runs in a season without any at home.

Jon Garland, despite giving up the two home runs in the second inning to Miguel Montero and Chris Young, lasted through six innings, allowing three runs, for his second quality start in as many games with the Dodgers.

Its a tough loss, to be sure, the polar opposite of last night's great win. The Rockies, with their comeback win against the Reds, are now 2½ games back in the division. Tomorrow is an off day, followed by a series this weekend in San Francisco. Hiroki Kuroda faces Matt Cain Friday night.

WP - Juan Gutierrez (4-3): 1.2 IP, 2 strikeouts

LP - Ramon Troncoso (4-3): 0.1 IP, 1 unearned run, 3 walks

Box Score

Diamondbacks 4, Dodgers 3: Walk Like a Man

Azreous — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 05:20:20 -0000

Record: 62-79. Pace: 70-92. Change on last season: -9.

The Diamondbacks headed into tonight's matchup with the Dodgers looking for something, anything to take as a positive. Six straight losses (including a particularly bad one last night, with a three-run lead in the eighth) had the D-backs in sole possession of last place. Just to add to the confusion, their old buddy Jon Garland toed the rubber against Dan Haren in tonight's series finale. Neither starter ended up being a factor in the decision, and a closely contested game ended with perhaps the most anticlimactic way possible (unless you like waiting two seconds to see if an overweight guy raises his arm or not).

Dreadlocks and base knocks after the jump...

Haren got into trouble in the first inning, and paid the price. Rafael Furcal slapped a leadoff triple to right to put the pressure on from the start. Haren came back to strike out Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier, but couldn't get around Manny Ramirez, who drove Furcal in with a base hit (really, more of a grounder that took a bad bounce). It seemed like one of those hard-luck runs that Haren eats sometimes -- he stopped the Dodgers from getting a runner on third in with less than two outs (twice), but ended up getting charged with a run.

The Diamondbacks didn't waste much time erasing that small deficit. After a Justin Upton walk was the lone highlight of the first, Miguel Montero and Chris Young started the second by smacking homers into the right-field seats. Montero's was a no-doubter, and Young continued his recent power surge with an opposite-field bomb of his own. Of course, this was business as usual for Garland at Chase Field, but this time he was wearing somebody else's uniform instead.

Haren settled in for the next two frames, setting down the side in order both times and striking out three in the process. But the Dodgers answered with back-to-back jacks of their own in the fourth. Manny crushed a ball to opposite field, and James Loney followed with a no-doubter into right center that quickly gave L.A. a 3-2 lead. The solo shot has been a bit of an anathema for Haren this year:

Arizona tied the game up in the fifth thanks to back-to-back singles and a rare success getting a runner in from scoring position. Ryan Roberts and Stephen Drew used those consecutive hits to put runners on the corners with nobody out, and Justin Upton grounded out deep enough to let Roberts score from third and make it a 3-3 game.

Meanwhile, Haren went right back to work. He set down the side in order in the fifth (striking out two), worked around a Manny walk in the sixth (striking out two more), and an Orlando Hudson bloop single was his only blemish in the seventh. Sitting at 105 pitches, Haren came back out for the eighth and got a Ronnie Belliard groundout to start the inning, but back-to-back base hits by Kemp and Ethier chased Haren at the 119 mark. Juan Gutierrez came in faced with a bit of a situation: two on, one out, and the wrecking crew of Manny and Loney due up. But it didn't faze him -- he gave Manny four heaters, then threw three nasty breaking pitches to Loney to strike them both out and get Haren off the hook. The two starters ended up with lines that looked like this:

Haren: 7.1 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 9 K
Garland: 6 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 4 K

Seems like what we've come to expect from the two of them, right?

Heading into the ninth, the stage was set for a Diamondbacks walkoff, but the inning didn't look like it was going to start that way. Gerardo Parra hit a weak little grounder up the middle that pitcher Ramon Troncoso fielded, but threw away, allowing Parra to make it into second. Trent Oeltjen (pause for the ladies to sigh dreamily) came in to pinch run, and moved over to third on a sac bunt by Ryan Roberts. Because Joe Torre is weird, he intentionally walked both Drew and Upton to load the bases for Mark Reynolds (yes, this sets up the force at home as well as other double play options, but still). After having his pitcher throw eight straight BP fastballs outside, Troncoso labored through eight for-real-real fastballs in his battle with Reynolds. Reynolds laid off a 1-2 pitch that was just off the plate, and might've gotten lucky on the second 2-2 pitch (it was close, and he might've gone around checking his swing). Still, Special K fouled off one pitch with a full count, then watched one last fastball miss outside to get the infamous walkoff walk. Oeltjen trotted home, the losing streak was over, and a sweep at the hands of the dreaded Dodgers was averted.

Master of his Domain: Miguel Montero, +34.3%
Honorable Mention: Juan Gutierrez, +32.1%; Mark Reynolds, +20.5%; Gerardo Parra, +17.2%
God-Emperor of Suck: Eric Byrnes, -23.7%
Dishonorable Mention: Dan Haren (batting), -12.5%; Chris Young, -11.5%

Montero set the pace again offensively, raising his average to .304 in the process. Gutierrez deserves solid marks for his work in the eighth, and Reynolds' positive ranking should come as no surprise given the outcome. On the flip side, Byrnes was terrible again (and was booed after his last at-bat), and Chris Young's at-bats where he didn't homer were largely unsuccessful.

For the Diamondbacks, Montero had a huge game: a triple short of the cycle, and he reached base all four times. Upton and Reynolds had a pair of walks, and Mark added a hit as well. Drew reached twice on a base knock and a base on balls. For the Dodgers, some douchebag in dreadlocks was the only batter to get on base more than once.

More than 1,000 comments in the GameDay Thread for the third game in a row, although this one wasn't quite as hectic as last night's. Skins and skoormit reached double digits, but everyone in the top ten had a solid showing. The bucket list: NASCARbernet, snakecharmer, DbacksSkins, Azreous, pierzynskirules, soco, SaveUsY2J, katers, IHateSouthBend, Jim McLennan, hotclaws, kishi, skoormit, RdRnnr, jrockies, pygalgia, 4 Corners Fan, sayheyupton, mrssoco, Scrbl, befizzle, coolopotamous, Wailord, SDcat09, ZonaBacks10, GuruB and txzona.

It's always fun getting a win against a divisional rival with a ninth-inning walkoff where you don't even get a hit. Error, walk, walk, walk -- maybe it's not how you dream it up in your backyard when you're a kid, but the win counts in the standings just the same.

Being the thorough journalist that I am, ~~sources close to the team~~ a couple of my friends who went to the game reported that a fight broke out between some Dodgers fans a few rows behind them -- a pair of couples who apparently couldn't get along. At one point, the females went after each other, and one got hit with a mini bat and bled so bad she had to be taken out of the section. Unfortunately, Dave and Andy wasn't able to get any pictures, but the mental image is good enough for me.

Off day tomorrow (get used to that line in these Wednesday recaps from this point on) before a three-game set at home against the Brewers, who still have an outside shot at the playoffs. The quest for .500 is still very much alive; sure, we have to finish 19-2, but if the Rockies can do something like that, anybody can.

[Edit: audio clippage from Dan on his outing and facing Manny, while Mark talks about what might be his most patient non-AB of the year]

Audio courtesy of KTAR 620