SB Nation - Homer Bailey

Heroes of the Zeros: The Starting Rotation

Slyde — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 14:21:24 -0000

It's that time of the decade when people start creating lists of the best and worst whatevers of the past 10 years. I was going to do that too, but then I decided to make you guys do all of the work. So, over the next two weeks we will be voting on the players that we think deserve the title of All-Decade team member for the Cincinnati Reds. Each day, I'll present you with a new position, and you get to vote. While we do this, the running totals will be kept secret so that you will be surprised when we announce the final roster on December 31st. The maybe we can finally put to bed what might be the worst decade in Reds history.

We'll start with where it started to end, the starting rotation. The Reds haven't exactly been stocked with quality starting pitching during the decade, but you still have to figure out who the top 5 of the decade are. To qualify for the team, a pitcher must have spent at least 50% of his time with the Reds as a starter and he must have made at least 20 starts in a Reds uniform. The rest of the qualifications are up to you. I've listed the stats for the 23 pitchers that meet our minimum qualifications. The voting form is in this post after the jump.

Click header to sort table by column
	ERA+	FIP	GS	Years	G	CG	SHO	W	L	W-L%	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	ERA	HR	OPS
Jose Acevedo	78	5.17	54	2001-2004	68	1	0	16	21	.432	304.1	334	198	189	97	222	5.59	58	.830
Bronson Arroyo	113	4.47	136	2006-2009	136	8	3	53	50	.515	871.2	887	424	387	260	630	4.00	119	.755
Homer Bailey	81	4.92	37	2007-2009	37	0	0	12	13	.480	195.0	217	129	118	97	132	5.45	23	.803
Rob Bell	92	5.93	35	2000-2001	35	1	0	7	13	.350	184.2	176	112	105	90	145	5.12	41	.840
Brandon Claussen	85	4.96	57	2004-2006	57	0	0	15	27	.357	309.2	351	195	176	120	223	5.12	47	.824
Johnny Cueto	94	4.87	61	2008-2009	61	0	0	20	25	.444	345.1	350	191	177	129	290	4.61	53	.792
Lance Davis	97	4.66	20	2001	20	1	0	8	4	.667	106.1	124	60	56	34	53	4.74	12	.808
Ryan Dempster	66	5.27	35	2002-2003	37	1	0	8	12	.400	204.1	236	150	145	108	150	6.39	30	.856
Elmer Dessens	115	4.47	80	2000-2002	104	2	1	28	27	.509	530.1	564	246	232	148	306	3.94	66	.756
Osvaldo Fernandez	88	4.60	28	2000-2001	35	1	0	9	9	.500	159.0	172	95	93	64	71	5.26	14	.775
Aaron Harang	106	4.07	193	2003-2009	195	13	6	69	73	.486	1231.1	1288	606	572	315	1043	4.18	169	.767
Pete Harnisch	92	5.80	29	2000-2001	29	3	1	9	9	.500	166.1	181	105	94	63	88	5.09	32	.836
Jimmy Haynes	84	5.05	56	2002-2004	57	1	0	17	25	.405	306.0	354	188	172	145	183	5.06	38	.820
Luke Hudson	87	5.44	25	2002-2005	31	0	0	10	11	.476	139.0	124	83	76	81	98	4.92	18	.790
Cory Lidle	80	4.95	24	2004	24	3	1	7	10	.412	149.0	170	95	88	44	93	5.32	24	.832
Kyle Lohse	101	4.24	32	2006-2007	33	2	1	9	17	.346	194.2	213	109	99	52	131	4.58	23	.777
Eric Milton	77	5.40	66	2005-2007	66	0	0	16	27	.372	370.1	439	256	240	103	231	5.83	73	.850
Ramon Ortiz	80	5.66	30	2005	30	1	0	9	11	.450	171.1	206	110	102	51	96	5.36	34	.882
Steve Parris	98	5.10	33	2000	33	0	0	12	17	.414	192.2	227	109	103	71	117	4.81	30	.858
Elizardo Ramirez	75	5.30	26	2005-2007	31	0	0	4	14	.222	142.2	176	106	97	47	86	6.12	24	.876
Ron Villone	87	5.92	23	2000	35	2	0	10	10	.500	141.0	154	95	85	78	77	5.43	22	.871
Edinson Volquez	128	3.90	41	2008-2009	42	0	0	21	8	.724	245.2	201	107	94	125	253	3.44	20	.681
Paul Wilson	86	5.00	66	2003-2005	66	1	0	20	21	.488	396.2	450	231	215	130	240	4.88	60	.817

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/13/2009.

I will only be accepting your first vote, so don't bother trying to stuff the ballot box, you cheaters. I don't care how much you want Jimmy Haynes in this rotation Dan O'Brien, you only get one vote.

Sabermetric Review of the 2009 Reds, Part 4: Pitching

JinAZ — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 04:14:43 -0000

To recap thus far, 2009 saw the offense drop considerably, the fielding improve dramatically, with a net effect being that the 2009 position players were probably at least as good, if not slightly better than the 2008 Reds squad of position players.

What about the 2009 pitchers? Since the fate of a pitcher in the boxscore is directly tied to the fielders playing behind him, we need to adjust for fielders. Here are three ways of doing that, and how the last several years of Reds pitchers have fared using each approach:

Here's what is shown above:

UZR-adj Runs Allowed is straight-up runs allowed (park adjusted), with UZR-based team fielding factored out. For example, this year, UZR rates the Reds as a +53 fielding team. So, I added 53 runs to the runs allowed total to "simulate" what would have happened with an average-fielding team.
FIP-based runs allowed uses team FIP to estimate runs allowed per game, and then extrapolates to the full season. FIP stands for "fielding independent runs," and uses K, BB, HBP, and HR rates to estimate runs allowed independent of a teams' fielders or context. I park-adjusted K, BB, HBP, and HR rates.
tRA-based runs allowed is straight-up pRAA from statcorner, summed for starters and relievers. It is based on tRA, which is billed as a sort of "FIP on steroids." It uses K, BB, and all batted ball rates (LD, FB, GB, HR/FB, all park adjusted) to estimate runs allowed in a manner that again should be independent of fielders or context. I am unclear if pRAA is based on tRA or tRA* (tRA* is the regressed version).

As you can see, the UZR-adjusted number is more volatile, which makes sense given that it's based on actual runs allowed and thus is subject to all kinds of "luck" (not to mention the volatility of a fielding stat!). The FIP and tRA stats, on the other hand, basically parallel each other, with pRAA being consistently more negative about the team than FIP. These two stats do largely the same thing (though with somewhat different input data and methods), and in my experience are usually within spitting distance of each other. So while I'm not surprised to see them running parallel, I am surprised to see such a large quantitative difference between them in RAA. It seems to me, at least over the last four years, that the "real" data (UZR-adjusted runs allowed) have more closely matched FIP, which makes me more inclined to believe FIP. Maybe pRAA is using the wrong baseline (I'm comparing to all NL pitchers), or is more severe in its park adjustments? (fwiw, while I still like tRA, I am much less enamored with it--and much less ready to ditch FIP--than I was, say, 6 months ago. This is just the latest reason).

Anyway, looking at each line individually, you can see that all three statistics point to the same thing: pitching fell off a bit this year. And, if you look at just the FIP or tRA lines, it was in its worst state since Bronson Arroyo's arrival in 2006. What happened? Obviously, the Volquez injury was huge. But that's not the only story here. Player by player breakdowns below the jump.

The table is sortable if you click in the header.

Name	IP	pLI	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	HR/F	GB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	WARra	WARfip	WARhit	WAR
Aaron Harang	162.3	0.9	7.9	2.4	1.3	12%	35%	0.339	4.21	3.96	2.5	2.7	0.0	2.7
Bronson Arroyo	220.3	1.0	5.2	2.7	1.3	12%	45%	0.270	3.84	4.63	4.5	2.0	-0.2	1.7
Johnny Cueto	171.3	0.9	6.9	3.2	1.3	11%	42%	0.296	4.41	4.63	2.3	1.5	0.1	1.6
Francisco Cordero	66.7	1.9	7.8	4.1	0.3	3%	41%	0.301	2.16	3.10	2.8	1.6	0.0	1.6
Nick Masset	76.0	1.1	8.3	2.8	0.7	10%	54%	0.250	2.37	3.25	2.4	1.2	0.0	1.2
Arthur Rhodes	53.3	1.5	8.1	3.4	0.5	5%	41%	0.249	2.53	3.10	2.0	1.1	0.0	1.1
Homer Bailey	113.3	1.0	6.8	4.1	1.0	9%	43%	0.306	4.53	4.38	1.4	1.3	-0.3	1.0
Micah Owings	119.7	1.0	5.1	4.8	1.4	11%	37%	0.286	5.34	5.53	0.4	-0.1	1.1	1.0
Jared Burton	59.3	0.9	6.8	3.5	0.8	6%	43%	0.314	4.40	3.75	0.3	0.5	0.0	0.5
Daniel Ray Herrera	61.7	0.8	6.4	3.5	0.7	9%	50%	0.309	3.06	3.91	0.5	0.4	0.0	0.5
Josh Roenicke	13.3	0.2	9.5	2.7	0.0	0%	47%	0.355	2.70	2.03	0.4	0.4	0.0	0.4
Matt Maloney	40.7	0.9	6.2	1.8	2.0	13%	34%	0.282	4.87	5.16	0.5	0.1	0.2	0.3
Carlos Fisher	52.3	0.5	8.3	5.3	0.7	7%	44%	0.316	4.47	4.02	0.3	0.3	0.0	0.3
Paul Janish	2.0	0.0	13.5	9.0	9.0	50%	50%	0.726	49.50	14.99	-0.1	-0.1	0.3	0.2
Edinson Volquez	49.7	1.1	8.5	5.8	1.1	14%	45%	0.231	4.35	4.99	0.8	0.3	-0.2	0.1
Robert Manuel	4.3	0.2	4.2	2.1	0.0	0%	33%	0.329	0.00	2.97	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.1
Kip Wells	46.3	0.9	4.9	4.3	1.0	11%	49%	0.232	4.66	5.15	0.6	0.1	-0.1	0.0
Ramon Ramirez	12.3	0.6	5.8	2.9	1.5	11%	37%	0.183	3.65	5.03	0.2	-0.1	0.0	-0.1
Pedro Viola	7.0	0.4	6.4	3.9	2.6	18%	38%	0.253	5.14	6.43	0.0	-0.1	0.0	-0.1
David Weathers	38.0	1.6	6.4	4.0	1.7	15%	43%	0.200	3.32	5.23	1.0	-0.3	0.0	-0.3
Justin Lehr	65.3	0.9	4.6	3.9	1.9	16%	40%	0.277	5.37	6.09	0.4	-0.3	-0.1	-0.4
Mike Lincoln	23.0	0.7	3.5	7.4	2.7	23%	44%	0.283	8.22	8.75	-0.6	-0.7	0.0	-0.7

Notes on table: pLI is an indication of the leverage of the situations in which a pitcher pitched. pLI = 1 on average, pLI=2 when situations are twice as influential on game outcome as usual, pLI=0.5 when situations are half as influential on game outcome as usual. FIP is Fielding Independent Runs, with park adjustments for each coefficient (see above). WARra is Wins Above Replacement based on actual runs charged to a pitcher (park adjusted). It is calculated following Tango's methods, including the leverage adjustment. WARfip is WAR based on FIP. WARhit is an overall hitting assessment, which will be different from the last post because I discovered I was using much too low of a position adjustment for pitchers (sorry!). WAR is the sum of WARfip and WARhit.

Bronson Arroyo had the best season of the group based on traditional stats, and is our official 2009 Reds Pitcher of the Year. Clearly, he's the only one who topped 200 innings, and that has a lot of value in and of itself. Harang, in contrast, seemingly had another sub-par season, at least by his standards. This was especially true with respect to durability: thanks to his appendix, he only reached 162 innings this season, his lowest total since 2004.

But as Slyde showed recently, the major driving factor behind the differences in these two pitchers was actually some combination of fielding and luck: Harang's batted balls became hits 34% of the time compared to just 27% with Arroyo. In fact, if you look at his peripherals, Harang had a better strikeout rate (by a lot), a better walk rate, and an equivalent home run allowed rate (with identical HR/F rates) to Arroyo. Based on this, and despite his much lower innings total, Harang comes in as the more valuable pitcher this year...by a full win...over Arroyo!

I'm actually a bit concerned about Arroyo. His strikeout rate dropped considerably this year. Although he was improved in the second half, my pet belief is that Arroyo's success depends largely on his strikeout rate. Then again, he's shown large fluctuations in strikeout rate in the past, so hopefully this is just a blip. The Reds need him to be a 2-win pitcher next year if they're going to do anything.

Johnny Cueto had by most accounts a very successful season. He started strong, but seemed to taper off as the season wore on, perhaps due to workload: he pitched in both winterball and the WBC last winter, which is far too many innings for my comfort. I'd like to see him get back into the 8+ k/9 range where he was in 2008--if he does, he could be a force.

Homer Bailey had a heck of a turnaround season. Citing some changes in his delivery that occurred during the offseason, Bailey started slow, but then something seemed to just "click." The result was a tremendously successful final few months of the season. I still don't know if what we saw was real or not, but I sure hope it was. Given his playing time, he probably has the biggest error bars around his projection of any pitcher on this team, and perhaps across the entire league.

Micah Owings has probably the most interesting row on the list. As a pitcher, he wasn't very impressive. Low strikeout rate, VERY high walk rate, and low ground ball rates do not tend to lead to success. But the amazing thing is that he was able to couple that replacement-level pitching performance with hitting that clocks in right at league average. The result? A 1 WAR pitcher. You can do worse from your #5 starter. Or long reliever/pinch hitter. Whatever he is these days. Fascinating player.

Speaking of the bullpen, it sure looked excellent this year. Cordero, Rhodes, and the revelational Nick Masset combined for sub-3 ERA's and low-3 FIP's. Jared Burton (FIP 3.75), Danny Herrera (seems like the screwball works, at least on lefties), and Carlos Fisher (scary walks) also performed adequately in middle relief. If Bill Bray comes back strong following Tommy John, this could be a great young relief core moving forward. Well, minus Rhodes, because he's old.

Speaking of old, Cordero's line looks a little shaky from where I sit. His strikeout rate has gone from 12 k/9 in 2007 to 10 k/9 in 2008 to 8 k/9 in 2009. His walk rate was about where it is supposed to be, but his home run rate is artificially low, thanks to an extremely lucky HR per Fly Ball rate of 3%. I don't know if it's related, but he threw a lot more fastballs this year than last (63% vs. ~50% in prior seasons)...maybe the slider wasn't working as well as it used to? The Reds owe him two more seasons at $12M per year.

Overall, this wasn't a terrible pitching staff. But it also wasn't a pitching staff that featured any fantastic individual performances. And the rotation wasn't as strong as it has been in recent years, especially with injuries to Edinson Volquez and Harang. Volquez apparently thinks he will be back mid-next season, which could be a nice shot in the arm if the team is able to do anything with the first half. We'll see.

...

Wrap up and looking forward: So, that's your 2009 Reds. Fun in April and September, utterly forgettable in between. I don't know where this team is going, honestly. There are some good parts here. There are solid, steady contributers in Votto, Rolen, Phillips, Harang, and Arroyo. And there is youth with some nice upside in Bruce, Bailey, Cueto, Stubbs, and Volquez (when he returns). And there's more help on the way in Frazier, Alonso, and Leake. But it's also a team that is seeing some key players, especially pitchers, start to show signs of aging.

Given this, I wonder if 2010 is the year with the best window for success? And if so, can the cash-strapped Reds do what they need to do--plugging holes, mostly--to put themselves in a position to take advantage of some good fortune if it arrives?

Baseball-Intellect Looks at Homer Bailey's Mechanics

Slyde — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 19:23:19 -0000

We've heard a lot about Homer Bailey's improved mechanics, and the evidence is definitely there in the results that we saw during the season. Bailey chalks a lot of the improvement up to work that he did with Skip Johnson, pitching coach with the University of Texas:

"So I went for one bullpen (session) and he was telling me try this and try that," said Bailey, who tossed eight scoreless innings Friday, Aug. 28, in beating the Dodgers. "The whole time I’m kind of like, ‘All right, Homer, keep doing it. It feels funny and it feels different.’ So he told me to come back in a couple of days and throw another bullpen.

"And he gave me some drills to do at home before I went back and I kept doing them," Bailey continued. "I went back for the next bullpen and the ball just jumped out of my hand and I just stared at it. I threw three pitches and said to myself, ‘It’s back.’ "

Bailey was regularly hitting above 95 on the radar gun this past season, something that we really haven't seen him do in the big leagues prior to this season. Having that speed has definitely allowed him to pitch more freely and confidently, and I think that is why we saw such good results from him during the last 2 months of the season.

But what has changed about Bailey's mechanics? Alex Eisenberg at Baseball-Intellect.com has taken a stab at trying to see what is different for Bailey this season compared to 2008. The key, he says, is tempo. After the jump, I've posted two pictures from Eisenberg's post comparing Bailey's tempo from 2008 to 2009. I'm no expert in pitching mechanics, so I have a hard time truly differentiating what is important and what is circumstantial, but I think what Eisenberg points out seems reasonable. I encourage you to read the article and see if you notice anything different than what it points out.

The Farmies, part 2

nycredsfan — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 17:00:28 -0000

No, it's the FarMIES...but they're all welcome anyway

View full size photo »

Welcome to day two of the Farmies. Yesterday brought us some major power, defense, and rising prospects. Today we celebrate the real cream of the crop of the Reds minor league system.

Comeback Player of the Year

Homer Bailey

Let's review:

2007-Bailey makes his debut to delirious fan support and is anointed the Great Hope. He proceeds to struggle a bit the rest of the year.

2008-He's beaten out for a rotation spot by Johnny Cueto and has a very rough year between AAA and the bigs. In the offseason he almost gets traded straight up for Jermaine Dye.

2009-He learns a bit of humility, a bit of control, and the split-finger and dominates AAA. He comes up to Cincinnati and has a positively Arroyo-like end to the season. His last 9 starts he goes 6-1 with a 1.70 ERA, striking out 53 in 58 innings and holding opponents to a .631 OPS against.

Last offseason many had given up on him. As of this minute he might be our second best starter. Welcome, GoodHomer. We hope you're here to stay.

Honorable Mention:

This goes to Justin Lehr for two reasons: 1) He was pitching in Korea last year, and this year posted a 2.51 ERA and .89 WHIP in 75 AAA innings, and 2) Teaching Homer the splitter. Big ups, Justin. I wish you the best of luck, just not with the Cincinnati Reds.

2010 Breakout Candidate

Devin Mesoraco

Wait a minute, you say. How do you give it to a guy who hit .228 in high-A this season? Here's why: His BB rate, LD% and ISO all improved dramatically, and his average was weighed down by a .276 BABIP despite the high line drive rate. AND he was only 20/21 playing in the FSL, which makes everyone not named Jay Bruce look bad the first time round. Minorleaguesplits.com's luck factor says he should've put up a line of .279/.356/.452. I'd take that from my catcher. Most importantly, perhaps, his defense behind the plate is reported to be much improved. Next year will be his 3^rd full pro season, and I could see him cruising through Carolina and being a late season call-up to AAA, with people debating whether to make him or Ramon Hernandez the starter in 2011.

Honorable Mention:

Juan Duran-Next year you can start to judge him by his stats, which I'm guessing will be much better.

Minor League Manager of the Year

Rick Sweet

Last year's IL manager of the year is this year's RR Manager of the Year. I can't imagine how hard it is to manage a AAA team with so much personnel change during a season, but Sweet kept the Bats rolling all year to an 84-58 record and the organization's only playoff berth. He owns a 387-330 record in 5 seasons as the Bats manager. The Reds record over that span is 377-433. Draw your own conclusions.

Honorable Mention

Joe Ayrault-Do you have any idea which team he manages? Didn't think so. His team was terrible, but I thought he deserved a little love anyway. His Wikipedia page has a couple fun facts.

Minor League Hitter of the Year

Juan Francisco

.296/.328/.523, 29 HR, 32 doubles, 93 RBI. Would you take that line from your third baseman? How about your left fielder? That's the line El Nino Destructor put up over two levels (AA-AAA) this season. You can talk all you want about walks and strikeouts, E.N.D. won't listen. He crushed AA as a 21 year old, turned 22, decided he was a man amongst boys, and proceeded to own AAA. Then, when called up to the big club in September, as the team's youngest player (2 months younger than Bruce), he put up an OPS of 1.139 in 25 plate appearances. In that short time he was worth .5 WAR, which was more than Willy Taveras, Alex Gonzalez, Edwin Encarnacion, Adam Rosales, Darnell McDonald, and Drew Sutton, and equaled the value of Jerry Hairston Jr. and Ramon Hernandez......ROAR.

(Thanks to BubbaFan for the amazingly awesome pic)

Honorable Mention:

Always a bridesmaid but never a bride, Chris Heisey had this award wrapped up in late June, scuffled a bit in AAA, but still put together a good campaign. He was pipped at the post by Francisco's August and September. Final line-.319/.386/.523

Todd Frazier had another very, very solid season. If you like walks (I gaze into their eyes at night) it was tempting to give him this award. Final line-.292/.353/.474

Minor League Pitcher of the Year

Travis Wood

This one's a no brainer. Over two levels (AA-AAA) Wood posted a 13-5 record. He must be good right? In addition to the all-important W-L record, Wood sported a 7.15 K/9 rate and lowered his BB/9 rate to 2.86, by far his best rate in 4 professional seasons. These two solid peripherals, combined with a low BABIP, meant that his WHIP was a sparkling 1.04. Oh, and he only gave up 6 homers all year in 176 IP. Yes, but wasn't he supported by good defenses in Carolina and Louisville? Perhaps, but his FIP was a very solid 3.28. Did I mention the kid is only 22? Stop your arguing, the kid can pitch.

Honorable Mention:

Zach (sniff, sniff) Stewart

Justin Lehr had a great year in Louisville, and taught Homer that splitter. If he had any prospect value he'd be on stage crying and thanking his agent right now.

That's all, folks. Thanks for joining us tonight, don't forget to tip your waiters, and we'll see you again next year.

Cueto goes to 11! Reds win, 8-4.

Brendanukkah — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 03:40:09 -0000

Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Joey Votto. The Irresistable Force went 2-3 with a double, a home run, three RBI, a run scored, and two walks. Dude's good.

Key Plays

Johnny Cueto got off to a rough start. He walked Andrew McCutchen, then gave up a run-scoring double to Andy LaRoche. It seems like it's been awhile since we've harped on all the first inning runs the Reds have given up. They gave up a lot.
In the second inning, the Reds used the same walk-double strategy to even the game. Scott Rolen drew the walk, and Darnell McDonald hit the double. Walks to Ramon Hernandez and Drew Stubbs loaded the bases, but Paul Janish flew out to end the inning.
Scott Rolen homered in the third. Know what? I haven't really missed Edwin since we traded him.
McDonald led off the fourth inning with a single, and went to third on Ramon Hernandez's single. Then he scored on a passed ball. After Cueto and Stubbs made outs, Paul Janish walked, and he and Hernandez scored on Joey Votto's double. Votto was thrown out trying to stretch the hit into a triple.
Cueto ran into trouble in the sixth inning. He gave up a leadoff single to Garrett Jones, and a walk to Brandon Moss one out later. Then Delwyn Young hit a three run homer to bring the Pirates within one run.
The Pirates hadn't counted on El Nino Destructor, however. In the bottom of the sixth, Ramon Hernandez doubled to lead off, and Willy Taveras came in to run for him. Then Juan Francisco hit a double to right field and Taveras scored. ROAR! Francisco then scored on successive sacrifices by Stubbs and Janish. ROAR!
Votto homered in the eighth inning. Such a giver.

via www.fangraphs.com

Other Notes

Brandon Phillips had been 0-16 before singling in the eighth. If he gets five RBI tomorrow, he'll finish with 100 on the season.
Francisco Cordero pitched a scoreless ninth, but it was not a save situation. He's still one save shy of 40 for the season.
Joey Votto's 25th home run gave him a career high.
With the win, Johnny Cueto joins fellow starting pitchers Bronson Arroyo, Homer Bailey, Edinson Volquez, and Justin Lehr to not have a losing record.
Since both the Brewers and Reds won, the Reds have clinched fourth place in the NL Central.

Final - 10.3.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Pittsburgh Pirates	1	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	4	6	0
Cincinnati Reds	0	1	1	3	0	2	0	1	X	8	11	0
WP: Johnny Cueto (11 - 11) LP: Zach Duke (11 - 16)

Complete Coverage >

Homers in the lineup, Homer's on the mound. Can't nobody beat us, we're the best damn team around! Reds win, 7-2.

Brendanukkah — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 03:01:20 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

Jay Bruce doesn't like autotune. (AP Photo/Al Behrman)

Browse more photos »

Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Jay Bruce. Hova went 2-4, but his Two Bomb Turks provided five RBI, a career high.

Key Plays

In the second inning, Brandon Phillips used his speed to reach on an infield single, and Scott Rolen drew a walk. Then Jay Bruce announced that he was here to hit home runs and chew bubble gum... and he was all outta bubble gum. Reds 3, Cardinals 0.
Joey Votto then made a matching donation to Jay Bruce's Give Kids In the Outfield Seats a Baseball Fund. Reds 4, Cardinals 0.
The Cardinals began to threaten in the fifth inning. Jason LaRue got an infield hit (!), Skip Schumaker walked. Julio Lugo singled to load the bases with one out and Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday coming to the plate. Pujols hit a sacrifice fly, and Holliday grounded out to second. One run scored in a very Classic Reds performance. Reds 4, Cardinals 1.
Bartender! Gimme some triple sec! ...Which is my Neil Everett way of saying Brandon Phillips tripled in the sixth. Scott Rolen singled him in, and then Jay Bruce hit his second homer of the night to put the Reds up, 7-1.
Someone named D Freese hit a home run for St. Louis in the ninth inning. REDS WINNARS!

via FanGraphs

Other Notes

This was Jay Bruce's third multihomer game of the season and fifth of his career.
Speaking of five of things, Albert Pujols has five grand slams this season. His sacrifice fly was darn close to being number six.
"Cardinal-eater" Homer Bailey is now 1-3 against the Cards with a 7.06 ERA in five starts.
However, Homer is 5-1 with a 1.89 ERA over his last eight starts.
Jay Bruce now has career highs in home runs and RBI. Votto is one home run and three RBI from setting career highs in those marks. Hey, remember all those times that Votto's come to bat with two runners on ahead of him?

Final - 9.29.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
St. Louis Cardinals	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	2	9	0
Cincinnati Reds	0	3	1	0	0	3	0	0	X	7	8	0
WP: Homer Bailey (7 - 5) LP: Joel Pineiro (15 - 12)

Complete Coverage >

Reds win 12-2, have scored 30 runs in their last three games. Totally sustainable for the rest of this season and all of next, says I.

jch24 — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 02:28:12 -0000

More photos » by Darren Hauck - AP

"This is how many bases I get every time I come up these days."

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Another quickie recap:

Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Joey Votto went 4-5 with two doubles, two singles, three runs scored and an RBI. In the last two nights, dude is 7-9 with 5 doubles, two RBI and six runs scored. Oh and he hit a two run HR the game before. I think it's safe to say he's back.

Other Notes

Homer Bailey is now 4-1 with a sparkling 2.00 ERA over his last seven starts, lowering his season ERA by 1.8 runs in the process. He is what we thought he was! Or at least a lot closer to what we thought he could be.
Brandon Phillips had two more RBI, tying his career high with 94 on the year. He also got plunked by Virgil Vasquez in the 9th and had to leave the game. My sources say he'll play through the pain in an attempt to reach 100 RBI.
Drew Stubbs stole second and third base in the third inning, rattling Kevin Hart and starting a three run inning that might have been more had BP not have gotten greedy.
Dusty Baker replaced Jared Burton in the eighth inning up seven runs and no one on base. But he invented the high five, so it's cool.
Abraham Philip Miller had two RBI and is now hitting within 80 points of his weight. Hernadez who?
The Reds are 21-10 when Scott Rolen starts at 3B. It's his team!
The Reds still haven't gotten that damning 82nd loss, fighting to stave off their ninth straight losing season like their lives depend on it.
John Wall will either win the Heisman or average less than 10 ppg. There is no in between.

via www.fangraphs.com

Monday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 14:40:51 -0000

More photos » by Darren Hauck - AP

Casey McGehee congratulates Prince Fielder after Fielder hit a home run against the Astros during the first inning Sunday.

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Some things to read while getting your vitamins and minerals.

Yovani Gallardo came into yesterday's game saying he was still feeling strong and he showed it on the mound, needing just 77 pitches to complete five innings and pick up his 13th victory in his final start of the season. Gallardo says he will accept the role as ace of the Brewers' staff next season, when he will still be just 24 years old.

Perhaps Trevor Hoffman will still be closing out Gallardo's wins in 2010. A few days after Hoffman said he'd like to remain a Brewer, Doug Melvin confirmed his interest as well. Perhaps the two sides will work something out soon.

Hoffman is still projected to be a Type A free agent in the most recent Elias Rankings, as is Felipe Lopez. Here's something I don't think we've discussed before: David Weathers projects to be a Type B free agent. It probably doesn't matter, though, as the Brewers would have to decline his option and offer him arbitration to receive any compensation for him. Weathers is making $3.9 million this season, and likely won't receive much less than that in arbitration.

Speaking of free agents, Matthew Pouliot of Circling the Bases is ranking the 111 free agents-to-be this offseason, and Jason Kendall checks in at #109. David Weathers and Craig Counsell are ranked 86 and 85, respectively.

It was a big weekend for Prince Fielder, who picked up his franchise record 127th RBI on Saturday night, and followed it up with his 40th home run and 100th walk on Sunday. The entire team was on the field for a ceremony honoring Fielder before yesterday's game, as was Astros manager and previous record holder Cecil Cooper.

Seth McClung has been activated from the DL but has yet to appear in a game. In the meantime, he's been passing the time on Twitter (FanShot). He's only been active for a few days, but he's already posted his thoughts on waiting to get into games, nicknames, Prince Fielder, Trevor Hoffman, Todd Coffey's contract incentives, the fans in Milwaukee, living with dyslexia, fantasy football, and this site. He's already much better with Twitter than Nick Barnett.

We might see McClung tonight, but we won't see Milton Bradley. The Cubs suspended Bradley for the remainder of the season for conduct detrimental to the team after he told a reporter "you understand why they haven’t won in 100 years here." Bruce Miles of the Daily Herald says the Cubs feel like a great weight has been lifted off their shoulders.

I looked at these numbers yesterday and can't decide if they're worth anything: maybe you can help me. Yovani Gallardo and Jeff Suppan are among the bottom ten in baseball in percentage of two-strike pitches fouled off. Any thoughts on how/why that happens?

In the minors:

The future of baseball in Huntsville remains in question, but Mark McCarter of the Huntsville Times asked some tough questions of Stars GM Buck Rogers in an attempt to shed some light on it. The interview gives a nice feel of the challenges facing the Stars and the small staff they have facing them. (h/t Rattler Radio)
Caleb Gindl may have vaulted into the upper echelon of Brewer prospects this season, but hopefully he learned something as well. Gindl missed Brevard County's brief playoff appearance with a broken hand, and it was recently revealed that the broken hand was sustained punching a door in frustration after grounding into a double play.

Since moving on with the Mariners, Bill Hall has hit just .221/.262/.379, and now he's starting to draw negative attention from people you don't want to draw it from: U.S.S. Mariner called out Hall for a lack of effort on a fly ball over the weekend.

From a past bad contract to a potential future one: Joel Pineiro is one of the free agent pitchers the Brewers may look into this offseason, but Jorge Says No! thinks he'll get a four year/$40 million deal, which is an awful lot to commit to a guy who's had one good season in his last five tries.

You probably didn't need a reason to be depressed on a Monday morning, but if you did, here's one: MLB Playoff Odds has released their most recent projections, and they give the Yankees and Red Sox a combined 51.2% chance of winning the World Series. Once the Brewers are eliminated and the playoffs begin, I'll be rooting for everyone else.

If that didn't depress you, perhaps your surprising lack of baseball knowledge will. It was pretty early this morning (and before caffeine) when I took this quiz, but I was still only able to name five of the 25 MLB win leaders by last initial. And, after seeing the results, I wouldn't have gotten several of them even if I'd had all day.

Zack Greinke isn't on that list but, as Joe Posnanski notes, he's on a better one: He's one of just nine pitchers in MLB history to pitch 200 innings with an ERA+ over 200 and 200 strikeouts. He's in incredibly elite company in that club.

The Reds have a nice group of young pitchers, and a manager with a reputation for ruining them. So how is it possible that Homer Bailey wants to pitch more? That one blew my mind.

Today we have another sad reminder that, no matter how excited you are about a prospect, and no matter how "can't miss" he is, something can always go wrong. Giants prospect Angel Villalona is a suspect in a murder in the Dominican Republic. Villalona is 19 years old and was given a $2.1 million signing bonus in 2007.

On this day in 1998, Jason Kendall stole his 26th base, setting a new National League record for catchers. The Pirates lost anyway, 8-1 to the Giants.

What do you give the man who could have had everything but smoked it all away? Today is Jeremy Jeffress' 22nd birthday. Also, happy birthday to Doug Davis, who seems like he should be much older than 34.

Oh, and maybe MS Word knows something the Royals don't.

Drink up.

Pitching Mechanics Update: Homer Bailey

Kyle Boddy — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 05:32:11 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

Cincinnati Reds starter Homer Bailey pitches against the Milwaukee Brewers in the first inning of a baseball game, Thursday, July 16, 2009, in Cincinnati. What changed since then? (AP Photo/Al Behrman)

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While checking the usual baseball-related sites today, I noticed a very interesting article: Bailey locates his missing velocity. In it, the author states:

CINCINNATI — From 98 to 94 and back to 98 in one easy lesson — only it was slightly more than one lesson.

Homer Bailey, though, said it was an easy process relocating his misplaced 98-mph fastball, but he couldn’t do it himself.

"Last offseason, when I first started to get on the mound, my agent told me, ‘Go see Skip Johnson, he is the pitching coach at the University of Texas,’ " Bailey said. "I thought, ‘I ain’t got nothing to lose, because things aren’t looking so good.’ "

...

"So I went for one bullpen (session) and he was telling me try this and try that," said Bailey, who tossed eight scoreless innings Friday, Aug. 28, in beating the Dodgers. "The whole time I’m kind of like, ‘All right, Homer, keep doing it. It feels funny and it feels different.’ So he told me to come back in a couple of days and throw another bullpen.

"And he gave me some drills to do at home before I went back and I kept doing them," Bailey continued. "I went back for the next bullpen and the ball just jumped out of my hand and I just stared at it. I threw three pitches and said to myself, ‘It’s back.’ "

And what happened before, when he threw 98 and it sunk to 94?

"I have no clue where it went," he said. "I thought there was something wrong with my shoulder or elbow. My groin bugged me and I thought maybe that was it. But it really wasn’t. Just a little mechanical change. If you look at it on video it’s not that different. You have to have somebody who is there right on you to see the difference.

"It’s the tempo, the way everything loads," Bailey said. "I knew after that second bullpen and said to myself, ‘This is going to be fun again.’ After that, I had eight or nine sessions before spring training and every time it got just a little better and a little better."

(Emphasis is mine.)

Well, first of all, we know that slow motion video is going to be better than anyone's trained eye - no matter how good of a coach they are. If we're talking very minute differences, that's nothing something the human eye is going to be able to pick up immediately - or possibly ever. Regardless, let's take a look from old video from May and video from September to see if there's any meaningful difference between the two sets of mechanics...

Old is on the left, new is on the right.

And the answer is....?

Well, I'd like your opinion. Personally, I see a significant change (or possibly more than one change) between the two videos - but to foster some debate and get more audience participation, I'd like you to weigh in. If there's not sufficient interest, I'll let the story fall by the wayside.

So chime in!

Turns out 5 days is one too many. Reds blow lead in the 9th and lose 4-3.

Slyde — Sat, 19 Sep 2009 02:33:12 -0000

More photos » by David Kohl - AP

Hit the showers, Coco. I guess we should be happy that it took so long for the Reds to lose a game that they led going into the 9th.

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Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Homer Bailey. 7 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 8 K. Seriously, who else should it be? Dude deserved the win.

Key Plays

With two outs in the 3rd inning, Drew Stubbs singled and stole 2nd base. Drew Sutton followed with a single to drive in Stubbs, which drew applause from the crowd.
Other than that, the game was quiet until the Reds 8th inning. Sutton led off the inning with a triple and the scored on a base hit by Joey Votto, giving the Reds a 2-0 lead.
Dusty Baker felt it wise to bring in Francisco Cordero for the 5th day in a row. Not surprisingly, it wasn't. Chris Coghlan led off the inning with a low line drive to left field that Wladimir Balentien lost in the lights, allowing Coghlan to reach first. After a Nick Johnson line out, Hanley Ramirez singled and Jorge Cantu doubled, scoring Coghlan. A ground out by Dan Uggla pushed the tying run across the plate with 2 outs.
The bleeding didn't stop though. John Baker singled to drive in Cantu. Cody Ross followed with another bloop single and Cordero's night was mercifully over. Brett Carroll doubled off of Jared Burton to drive in the 4th run of the inning, a run that ended up being the most important one.
Juan Francisco ate his first major league sized child with his first career home run in the 9th inning, but the Reds went meekly in the 9th after that as Kevin Barker and Jay Bruce both struck out and Drew Stubbs lined out to right field.

via FanGraphs

I hate graphs that look like that.

Other Notes

The loss is the first loss by the Reds this season in a game in which they took the lead into the 9th inning. They were previously 57-0 in those games.
The loss ended the Reds 8-game home winning streak and 4-game overall winning streak.
You can use vinegar and baking soda to get that musty smell out of towels. Don't use laundry detergent or fabric softener.
Juan Francisco is the 7th Reds player to hit his first major league home run this season. Name the other six.
The Reds reach 80 losses for the 9th consecutive season. They must win 13 of their last 14 to not have their 9th straight losing season.
This was Homer Bailey's 6th straight start with 114 or more pitches.