SB Nation - Kyle Lohse

Heroes of the Zeros: The Starting Rotation

Slyde — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 14:21:24 -0000

It's that time of the decade when people start creating lists of the best and worst whatevers of the past 10 years. I was going to do that too, but then I decided to make you guys do all of the work. So, over the next two weeks we will be voting on the players that we think deserve the title of All-Decade team member for the Cincinnati Reds. Each day, I'll present you with a new position, and you get to vote. While we do this, the running totals will be kept secret so that you will be surprised when we announce the final roster on December 31st. The maybe we can finally put to bed what might be the worst decade in Reds history.

We'll start with where it started to end, the starting rotation. The Reds haven't exactly been stocked with quality starting pitching during the decade, but you still have to figure out who the top 5 of the decade are. To qualify for the team, a pitcher must have spent at least 50% of his time with the Reds as a starter and he must have made at least 20 starts in a Reds uniform. The rest of the qualifications are up to you. I've listed the stats for the 23 pitchers that meet our minimum qualifications. The voting form is in this post after the jump.

Click header to sort table by column
	ERA+	FIP	GS	Years	G	CG	SHO	W	L	W-L%	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	ERA	HR	OPS
Jose Acevedo	78	5.17	54	2001-2004	68	1	0	16	21	.432	304.1	334	198	189	97	222	5.59	58	.830
Bronson Arroyo	113	4.47	136	2006-2009	136	8	3	53	50	.515	871.2	887	424	387	260	630	4.00	119	.755
Homer Bailey	81	4.92	37	2007-2009	37	0	0	12	13	.480	195.0	217	129	118	97	132	5.45	23	.803
Rob Bell	92	5.93	35	2000-2001	35	1	0	7	13	.350	184.2	176	112	105	90	145	5.12	41	.840
Brandon Claussen	85	4.96	57	2004-2006	57	0	0	15	27	.357	309.2	351	195	176	120	223	5.12	47	.824
Johnny Cueto	94	4.87	61	2008-2009	61	0	0	20	25	.444	345.1	350	191	177	129	290	4.61	53	.792
Lance Davis	97	4.66	20	2001	20	1	0	8	4	.667	106.1	124	60	56	34	53	4.74	12	.808
Ryan Dempster	66	5.27	35	2002-2003	37	1	0	8	12	.400	204.1	236	150	145	108	150	6.39	30	.856
Elmer Dessens	115	4.47	80	2000-2002	104	2	1	28	27	.509	530.1	564	246	232	148	306	3.94	66	.756
Osvaldo Fernandez	88	4.60	28	2000-2001	35	1	0	9	9	.500	159.0	172	95	93	64	71	5.26	14	.775
Aaron Harang	106	4.07	193	2003-2009	195	13	6	69	73	.486	1231.1	1288	606	572	315	1043	4.18	169	.767
Pete Harnisch	92	5.80	29	2000-2001	29	3	1	9	9	.500	166.1	181	105	94	63	88	5.09	32	.836
Jimmy Haynes	84	5.05	56	2002-2004	57	1	0	17	25	.405	306.0	354	188	172	145	183	5.06	38	.820
Luke Hudson	87	5.44	25	2002-2005	31	0	0	10	11	.476	139.0	124	83	76	81	98	4.92	18	.790
Cory Lidle	80	4.95	24	2004	24	3	1	7	10	.412	149.0	170	95	88	44	93	5.32	24	.832
Kyle Lohse	101	4.24	32	2006-2007	33	2	1	9	17	.346	194.2	213	109	99	52	131	4.58	23	.777
Eric Milton	77	5.40	66	2005-2007	66	0	0	16	27	.372	370.1	439	256	240	103	231	5.83	73	.850
Ramon Ortiz	80	5.66	30	2005	30	1	0	9	11	.450	171.1	206	110	102	51	96	5.36	34	.882
Steve Parris	98	5.10	33	2000	33	0	0	12	17	.414	192.2	227	109	103	71	117	4.81	30	.858
Elizardo Ramirez	75	5.30	26	2005-2007	31	0	0	4	14	.222	142.2	176	106	97	47	86	6.12	24	.876
Ron Villone	87	5.92	23	2000	35	2	0	10	10	.500	141.0	154	95	85	78	77	5.43	22	.871
Edinson Volquez	128	3.90	41	2008-2009	42	0	0	21	8	.724	245.2	201	107	94	125	253	3.44	20	.681
Paul Wilson	86	5.00	66	2003-2005	66	1	0	20	21	.488	396.2	450	231	215	130	240	4.88	60	.817

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/13/2009.

I will only be accepting your first vote, so don't bother trying to stuff the ballot box, you cheaters. I don't care how much you want Jimmy Haynes in this rotation Dan O'Brien, you only get one vote.

Brad Penny Gives Cardinals More Upside in Rotation

Satchel Price — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 15:44:53 -0000

More photos » by Eric Risberg - ASSOCIATED PRESS

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According to ESPN's Buster Olney, the Cardinals and right-hander Brad Penny have come to an agreement on a one-year deal worth $7.5M with another $1.5M in incentives. The deal is pending a physical scheduled for Tuesday.

Much of the talk in St. Louis has been based around Matt Holliday and finding a replacement for him if he leaves, but quietly the Cardinals needed to fill another huge hole in the rotation with the departure of Joel Pineiro. Pineiro quietly made himself into a groundball machine last season, and his combination of pristine control and command made him one of the most effective starters in the National League. The big year priced Pineiro out of St. Louis' range, so it appears that they've turned to Penny to replace him in the rotation, to be joined with Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Kyle Lohse and presumably either Mitchell Boggs or Blake Hawksworth.

Penny, 32 in May, managed to bounce back in 2009 with the Boston Red Sox and San Francisco Giants after pitching just 94 (poor) innings the year before with the Los Angeles Dodgers. While his 4.88 ERA doesn't exactly impress, he did post solid 4.46 FIP and 4.56 xFIP marks, and his big-time mid-90's velocity returned as the season went on. Penny has some big upside, he has top of the rotation stuff and went five straight seasons with sub-4.00 FIPs from 2003 to 2007, and he's been worth more than 2.5 wins above replacement in six of the past seven seasons. Considering the big fastball, his apparent return to health, and a pretty solid track record outside of 2008, it seems that the Cardinals have added a pretty good arm to their rotation.

If Dave Duncan can help Penny in the same way that he helped the likes of Carpenter, Pineiro, Lohse, Matt Morris, Jeff Weaver, and Jeff Suppan, among others, then this could end up being a really great signing for the Cardinals. The guaranteed money is pretty significant at $7.5M, but it's only a one-year deal so a lot of the risk is mitigated, and there's reason to believe that Penny should be able to be a 2-3 WAR pitcher next season, making him well worth the investment.

The Cardinals definitely have some risk in their rotation with Carpenter and Penny, not to mention Lohse's inconsistency and forearm issues from last season, but they could very well have one of the best, if not the best, rotation in the National League next season if everyone is healthy. The Cardinals have some holes to fill still, especially in the lineup, but for $7.5M they did just land a potential #2 starter.

Signing Most-Valuable Players

DanUpBaby — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 18:00:36 -0000

You shoulda come to the first party—we didn't get home 'til around four in the morning. I was blind for three days...

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There's no new news, which means it's time we go over some old news: the decision to sign Ryan Franklin to a multi-year extension stipulating that he was not allowed to record another out in 2009. That particular clause was the main problem with the Franklin deal in particular, but since we didn't know about that at the time I think it's the principle of the thing that's wedged so tightly inside the Cardinals fanbase's collective craw. This team's management does so many things correctly; it's identified free talent like Ryan Ludwick, it's signed Adam Wainwright to a long-term deal at actual wainwright rates, and its drafts have improved tremendously since the seeds of what's become the new regime were first planted.

But Ryan Franklin was the second time in as many years that the Cardinals broke, to their own detriment, what was originally a Branch Rickey tenet and has since become a Sabermetrics 101 truism: Don't sign a player at the top of his value! This shouldn't be a difficult thing to grasp because it's so categorically true as to be basically meaningless; if you sign a guy at the very peak of his value, things can only go downhill from there.

I've thought about these contracts assuming, above all else, that John Mozeliak is a rational, above-average general manager; most of them are at this point, so it might be worthwhile to consider who else has made these two moves in recent years, and where it's left them.

THE LOHSE DEAL: Three long-term contracts obviously weirder than Kyle Lohse's

3. Juan Pierre. Five years, $44 million, 11/2006. What a terrible year for contracts this was—at the same time all of this was happening the Cardinals were getting ready to tear up Chris Carpenter's last two years, worth $15 million, so that they could hand him three more at an annual value of $15 million. Pierre is probably the nearest analogue to Kyle Lohse of the three I've got here; he's an intermittently useful regular who is being passed off, as salaries go, as the second banana on a pretty good team, not the guy who goes to the bench when somebody better shows up.

But more importantly, when the Dodgers pounced on Juan Pierre here—before the winter meetings, even—they seemed to be bidding against themselves. Pierre had just been traded from the Marlins for what at the time was a platter of second tier pitching prospects, and his year in Chicago hadn't exactly brought him back to the front of the national conscience. Who else was ready to offer Juan Pierre $44 million? Or Kyle Lohse $41?

2. Gary Matthews, Jr. Five years, $50 million, 11/2006. Stop me if you've heard this one before, maybe three times before: a player who has been useful in his own way for some time has a brilliant season that gets a lot of attention, not all of it for his tangible value. In the offseason he's signed to a contract that seems out of touch both with his apparent market value and the likely bounds of his performance, but the team in question is convinced that, despite being in his thirties, this player has found a new level of performance. He has not.

What makes the Sarge Jr. contract crazier than the Kyle Lohse deal, besides the additional year, is that the real Gary Matthews Jr. was a fourth outfielder with an inconsistent bat and a flashy glove. Since the Angels signed him, that's exactly what he's been. When it comes to inexplicable career year contracts, we're all Gary Matthews, Jr., Jr. Except for this man:

1. Vernon Wells. 114 years, $573 billion, 12/2006. Recently we were talking about how great it is to be able to lock up your own homegrown talent—how that's one of the keys to the Yankees' success, and, in the Blue Jays' case, one of the keys to competing with the Yankees. After looking at the Vernon Wells contract to this point, one might be tempted to never, ever sign another homegrown player again.

Vernon Wells was a trap; that's all there is to it. He looks like a homegrown franchise player; he plays center field, and in his second full season in the league he had an enormous season, hitting .317/.359/.550 and doing everything well. In his ill-fated contract year, he nearly reprised that season, hitting .303/.357/.542. But between those lines, and even between the lines' lines, there are more warning signals than you'll find on a pack of Canadian cigarettes. Between 2003 and 2006 are two extremely average lines; even in 2003 and 2006 there's a walk rate that keeps him from being an elite hitter. The Blue Jays were signing a player that they'd gotten for two non-contiguous years out of four to a deal that might even have been rich for that hypothetical guy.

They couldn't have known that his offense and defense would both take a complete nosedive by 2009, making him one of the worst players in baseball just in time for his contract to get to these numbers:

2010—$12.5 million
2011—$23 million

If I stopped here it would be a bad deal. But I've got more, one entirely separate bad deal—

2012—$21 million
2013—$21 million

That's like signing Vernon Wells to a bad contract—five years, $63 million—and then signing him again, at the conclusion of the contract, to Manny Ramirez's deal. (You know? It really is...)

THE FRANKLIN DEAL: Three mid-contract renegotiations less necessary than Ryan Franklin's

3. Vernon Wells. Why on earth did they renegotiate after his career year when they had one more on which to base things? Were they concerned that the Vernon Wells would take it as a serious personal affront?

2. Travis Hafner. You've got a slugger who has just turned 30 and who, while brilliant, has serious old player skills. He's gotten off to a slow start this season, but it's alright—you've got him signed through the end of the next year on a deal that's beneficial for all parties concerned. Do you A) wait out his slump, or B) sign him to a four year, $57 million contract that wipes out your attractive year and a half as a show of good will?

1. Chris Carpenter. It hurts, it really does. But at least we don't have to blame this one on John Mozeliak. I'm aware that this is easier for us to do, as armchair GMs, than it is for the actual executives, who are dealing with actual human beings they will have to see on a semi-regular basis. And it's not just the player—fans can be pretty quick to accuse teams of not opening up DeWallet, and the Vernon Wells deal was apparently engineered, to some degree, by the Blue Jays' owner.

But in general, contracts like Lohse's and Franklin's—on a smaller scale, luckily—illustrate how risky a business it is to use contracts to send messages to players, fans, or owners. A pat on the back might have done more good for Ryan Franklin than an extra $4 million on his head.

All Ex-Twins Team, 2009

Jesse — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 02:09:33 -0000

More photos » by Lori Shepler - AP

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2008 Roster
2006 Roster

For the second year in a row I tried to put together a full 25-man roster, and while I made the cut this team has some pretty big holes. Generally it's old, which is surprising, and there's going to be some pretty bad defense in places, but if any of the three outfielders get hurt there's nobody to be a fourth outfielder. Luckily, none of the guys on this team have to play a single game.

Without further ado, your batting order:

Name	Pos	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	'09 Team	With Twins
Jason Bartlett	SS	.320	.389	.490	14	66	Rays	'04 - '07
Luis Castillo	2B	.302	.387	.346	1	40	Mets	'06 - '07
Garrett Jones	RF	.293	.372	.567	21	44	Pirates	2007
Torii Hunter	CF	.299	.366	.508	22	90	Angels	'97 - '07
Casey Blake	3B	.280	.363	.468	18	79	Dodgers	'00 - '02
Randy Ruiz	1B	.313	.385	.635	10	17	Blue Jays	2008
David Ortiz	DH	.238	.332	.462	28	99	Red Sox	'97 - '02
A.J. Pierzynski	C	.300	.331	.425	13	49	White Sox	'98 - '03
Craig Monroe	LF	.215	.287	.354	3	16	Pirates	2008

All in all that's not a bad offensive lineup. According to Baseball Musing's Lineup Analysis tool, this offense would blow last year's out of the water: 5.741 runs per game, or about 930 runs over the course of a full season. Even with Jones and Monroe being stone defenders in the outfield corners, those runs are going to make up the difference.

The tool also insists that all of the best lineups would have Monroe hitting 8th and Castillo 9th, while a vast majority of the best lineups still have Bartlett leading off, but they also have Ruiz batting cleanup with his massive OBP and SLG in limited time.

Your bench? Outfielder-less. Henry Blanco of the Pirates is your catcher, followed by a trio of infielders: Cristian Guzman (Nationals), Adam Everett (Tigers) and Juan Castro (Dodgers).

Next up? Your starting rotation:

Name	W-L	ERA	IP	K	BB	'09 Team	With Twins
Johan Santana	13-9	3.13	166.2	146	46	Mets	'00 - '07
Matt Garza	8-12	3.95	203.0	189	79	Rays	'06 - '07
Kyle Lohse	6-10	4.74	117.2	77	36	Cardinals	'01 - '06
Livan Hernandez	9-12	5.44	183.2	102	67	Mets/Nationals	2008
Sidney Ponson	1-7	7.36	58.2	32	25	Royals	2007

I want you to know that I seriously considered going with a three-man rotation, a three-man bench, and then having a nine-man bullpen, but the reality is that even the bullpen pickings get a little thin once you get six or seven deep. As far as other starters I could have considered, there aren't many guys out there right now. Carlos Silva? Absolutely not.

Last season saw Santana, Lohse and Garza as the top three in the rotation as well. Moving onto the bullpen, last year I had Balfour closing, but this season I'd probably tab Hawkins.

Name	W-L	ERA	IP	K	BB	'09 Team	With Twins
LaTroy Hawkins	1-4	2.13	63.1	45	16	Astros	'95 - '03
Craig Breslow	7-5	2.60	55.1	44	18	Athletics	'08 - '09
J.C. Romero	0-0	2.70	16.2	12	13	Phillies	'99 - '05
Joe Beimel	1-6	3.58	55.1	35	19	Nationals/Rockies	2004
Grant Balfour	5-4	4.81	67.1	69	33	Rays	'01 - '04
Eddie Guardado	1-2	4.46	38.1	20	15	Rangers	'93 - '03, '08

Even in limited time, Romero is still managing to escape at least the appearance of damage in spite of some unnerving peripherals. Like the bench and the back of the rotation, this one of this team's weaker spots.

If injuries weren't a factor, how would this team fare over a season? Would an offense like this be able to keep this team afloat with the help of a strong 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation? Or would those unproven bats pair up with some older arms to bring the team's fortunes crashing to earth?

Guys who have made the team each of the three years: Pierzynski, Blake, Ortiz, Beimel, Romero and Hawkins.

Poll

How would this team fare?

They could compete for a division title

169 votes

Probably a .500 team

322 votes

Bottom dwellers, for sure

181 votes

672 votes | Poll has closed

Dodgers, Cardinals Set Rosters for NLDS

Eric Stephen — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 18:31:23 -0000

More photos » by Jae C. Hong - AP

Emperor Palpatine takes questions before tonight's game

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NLDS: Cardinals vs. Dodgers
Game 1	Tonight	Dodger Stadium	6:37pm
Game 2	Thu	Dodger Stadium	3:07pm
Game 3	Sat	Busch Stadium	3:07pm
Game 4*	Sun	Busch Stadium	TBD
Game 5*	Oct 13	Dodger Stadium	TBD
*if necessary		All times Pacific
All games televised on TBS

The Dodgers and Cardinals have announced their roster for the division series.

Dodgers

Catchers (2): Russell Martin, Brad Ausmus

Infielders (7): James Loney, Ronnie Belliard, Rafael Furcal, Casey Blake, Orlando Hudson, Juan Castro, Mark Loretta

Outfielders (4): Manny Ramirez, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Juan Pierre

Pinch Hitters (1): Jim Thome

Starting Pitchers (4): Randy Wolf, Clayton Kershaw, Vicente Padilla, Chad Billingsley

Relievers (7): Jonathan Broxton, George Sherrill, Hong-Chih Kuo, Ronald Belisario, Ramon Troncoso, Jon Garland, Jeff Weaver

Cardinals

Catchers (2): Yadier Molina, Jason LaRue

Infielders (7): Albert Pujols, Skip Schumaker, Julio Lugo, Brendan Ryan, Mark DeRosa, Troy Glaus, Old Friend Joe Thurston

Outfielders (4): Matt Holliday, Colby Rasmus, Ryan Ludwick, Rick Ankiel

Starting Pitchers (4): Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, Joel Pineiro, one of John Smoltz or Kyle Lohse

Relievers (8): Ryan Franklin, Kyle McClellan, Jason Motte, Trever Miller, Dennys Reyes, Blake Hawksworth, Mitchell Boggs, one of Smoltz or Lohse

The Dodgers starting rotation will be Randy Wolf, Clayton Kershaw, Vicente Padilla, and Chad Billingsley, in that order.

The Cardinals will counter with Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, and Joel Pineiro for the first three games. Either John Smoltz or Kyle Lohse, who will both be available in the bullpen tonight, will start game four on Sunday.

Division Series Tuesday Notes

Eric Stephen — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 15:34:05 -0000

Photo courtesy of Jon SooHoo / LA Dodgers

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NLDS: Cardinals vs. Dodgers
Game 1	Wed	Dodger Stadium	6:37pm
Game 2	Thu	Dodger Stadium	likely 3:07pm
Game 3	Sat	Busch Stadium	3:07pm
Game 4*	Sun	Busch Stadium	TBD
Game 5*	Oct 13	Dodger Stadium	TBD
*if necessary		All times Pacific
All games televised on TBS

Here are a few thoughts running through my head as we head into the NLDS:

Clayton Kershaw allowed just 20 runs in 16 home starts this season, finishing with a 1.83 ERA and 2.60 FIP at Dodger Stadium.
Over the final 54 games of the season, the final third of the year, Matt Kemp had a .293 on-base percentage. He hit .252/.293/.466 during that span. He did have a power surge, so I wonder if he suffered by trying to swing for the fences. Or maybe it was just bad luck. Kemp, who has a .361 career batting average on balls in play, only had a .272 BABIP over the last third of the season. Kemp did stop walking, with just 12 walks in 222 plate appearances.
The unquestionable highlight for the Dodgers during their last series with the Cardinals was The Lima Game. Lima's five-hit shutout over the 105-win Cardinals was the first Dodger postseason game win since the final game of the 1988 World Series, ending a 16-year drought. That performance made the 90-minute wait to leave the Dodger Stadium parking lot much more palatable. Who is this year's Lima? Lima, who came into 2004 with a 6.18 ERA over his previous four seasons, was a great addition to the back end of the rotation, going 13-5 with a 4.07 ERA. My first thought for the 2009 Lima was Jeff Weaver, who put up ERAs of 5.76 and 6.20 in the majors, and 6.17 in the minors over the last three seasons before flourishing in the swingman role with a 3.65 ERA this year. But, Weaver isn't going to start a playoff game. A more likely Lima clone this year is Vicente Padilla, who had a 4.90 ERA (92 ERA+) in nearly four years in Texas, before joining the Dodgers and going 4-0 with a 3.20 ERA (130 ERA+) in eight appearances.
Andre Ethier ended the season with 22 home runs at home, one shy of the single-season Dodger Stadium record. He also had six-walkoff hits, the most in one season since at least 1974. The Dodgers have home field advantage in the National League playoffs. This is a good thing.
The Dodgers limped to the finish line with a 4-6 record, but the Cardinals ended up 2-8. If only these things mattered.

**********

Kevin Baxter has a profile of Ethier in today's Los Angeles Times.

Paul White of USA Today takes a look at the "dazzling outfield duo" of Kemp and Ethier.

Vin Scully will call all postseason Dodger games on KABC radio, splitting time with Charley Steiner and Rick Monday. Scully will call the first three innings and from the seventh inning to the end of each game, with Steiner and Monday announcing innings four through six.

Orel of Sons of Steve Garvey gives us five postseason thoughts.

Kensai of Memories of Kevin Malone, now a member of ESPN's Sweet Spot network, breaks down the pitching of both teams heading into the NLDS.

Jon Weisman of Dodger Thoughts breaks down the Dodger record this season by number of walks.

Ken Gurnick of MLB.com tells us that Chad Billingsley threw 82 pitches over five innings in his simulated game yesterday.

Troy Glaus, out most of this season, will be on the Cardinals' roster for this series, but will likely be used mainly as a pinch hitter, according to Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Strauss also tells us that John Smoltz and Kyle Lohse, candidates to start game four, will be available in the bullpen in game one, Smoltz for a short, late-inning role, and Lohse for a middle-inning role if needed.

Yadier Molina has a sore knee, but is expected to play in the series. Molina threw out 41% of would-be base stealers this season.

The Dodgers will workout today at Dodger Stadium from noon to 2pm, followed by the Cardinals from 2pm to 4pm.

We will know the start time of game two of the NLDS probably by 6pm or so today. The Yankees must choose their ALDS schedule within an hour after today's Tigers-Twins game ends. That game starts at 2pm. If the Yankees choose to start Wednesday (highly likely), game two of the NLDS will start at 3:07pm. If the Yankees choose to start Thursday, game two of the NLDS will start at 6:37pm.

Postseason rosters are due tomorrow at 10am.

Rockies Survive on Miracle Double Play, Take Series with 4-3 Win over Cardinals

Jabberwocky — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 22:55:21 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Winning is the best medicine.

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Once again, Omar Quintanilla's pixies were right about a Rockies victory this afternoon--though they very nearly were mistaken.

It was a game that, despite leading most of the way and having a bevy of opportunities with men in scoring position, seemed like the Rockies were going to lose. Clint Barmes had something to say about that.

The Rockies' second baseman came through in a big way with a suberb diving catch in short right field with runners on the corners and one out in the ninth in a one run game. Strangely, Albert Pujols, who had been intentionally walked and was at first, never broke stride and Barmes had an easy double-up of Pujols at first base to end the game. Huston Street got six outs for his 34th save of the year and Jorge De La Rosa, who struggled through five innings (4 hits, 3 runs, 3 BBs, 8 Ks) picked up his 16th win (16-9) while Kyle Lohse (6-9) took the loss.

Offensively, the Rockies struggled to execute once again in RISP opportunities, going 2-11 (several of them with a man on third and less than two out), but did manage four runs (with big RBI hits by Tulo, Hawpe, CarGo, and Helton) on eight hits (two each by CarGo, Helton, and Tulo).

Box Score

With the victory and an Atlanta win, the Rockies' magic number only decreased by one to five over the Braves, who still sit 2.5 games behind Colorado in the Wild Card chase. It is likely mean that it is a two-team horse race for the final playoff spot in the NL, with the Rockies still very much in control of their own destiny. In addition, the Rockies finished the season series against the Cardinals with a 6-1 advantage--food for thought for a future potential playoff series against the Redbirds.

88 - 68

Games Back: 5

Streak: Won 1

Games Left: 6

via www.fangraphs.com

We Who Are About to Die Salute: Huston Street (.292), Troy Tulowitzki (.171), Carlos Gonzalez (.154), Clint Barmes (Honorary Mention for Awesome Play)
We'll Forgive You...This Time: Clint Barmes (-.147--yeah, he was kind of horrible until that play), Jorge De La Rosa (-.063), Ian Stewart (-.052)

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Game 156: Kyle Lohse vs. Jorge De La Rosa

Jabberwocky — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 18:00:21 -0000

This is a game that the Rockies should win. In fact, if they lose with their number two starter against St. Louis' number 4/5 guy struggling through an injury-plagued season, then I'll actually start to be worried about Atlanta. Yes, until the end of this game (and only should it be a poor result) I will remain unconcerned about the Rockies' playoff prospects.

Kyle Lohse

#26 / Pitcher / St. Louis Cardinals

Height: 6-2

Weight: 210

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Oct 04, 1978

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Kyle Lohse	6-8	21	20	1	1	0	0	106.2	111	60	57	15	34	68	4.81	1.36

vs.

Jorge De La Rosa

#29 / Pitcher / Colorado Rockies

Height: 6-1

Weight: 210

Bats: L

Throws: L

Born: Apr 05, 1981

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jorge De La Rosa	15-9	31	30	0	0	0	0	177.0	168	92	87	20	80	181	4.42	1.40

Look, Lohse isn't very good (4.69 FIP, 5.33 tRA) and he's right-handed. Omar Quintanilla's pixies tell me that this is a good combination for the Rockies.

Gameday Link

Lineup

St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies

09/27/09 1:10 PM MDT

St. Louis Cardinals	Colorado Rockies
Julio Lugo - 2B	Carlos Gonzalez - CF
Brendan Ryan - SS	Seth Smith - LF
Albert Pujols - 1B	Todd Helton - 1B
Ryan Ludwick - LF	Troy Tulowitzki - SS
Mark DeRosa - RF	Brad Hawpe - RF
David Freese - 3B	Yorvit Torrealba - C
Jason LaRue - C	Ian Stewart - 3B
Tyler Greene - CF	Clint Barmes - 2B
Kyle Lohse - P	Jorge De La Rosa - P

OVERFLOW THREAD

NLDS Preview(?) Preview

Poseidon's Fist — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 20:09:02 -0000

I haven't read all of the comments, or really even most of them, over the last two days, but I'm sure it's safe to say there's a little panic going on. Thanks be to the Cards for some perspective. Remember the last time we faced St. Louis? We were 21-32 and just avoided a four game sweep to lowly Houston. We were 3-4 with Jim Tracy and facing the top two teams in the NL Central.

Fast forward. The second time the two teams square off is 3.5 months later, and it could be a preview of the an NLDS matchup. The Cardinals would need to finish ahead of Philadelphia, who currently outpaces St. Louis by a half game. From the cellar to a playoff preview. That's a nice little jump.

The Cards have been strong since that matchup too. After getting swept by the Rockies, St. Louis has gone a stout 68-37. The pitching was always there, but the offensive lineup received much-needed reinforcements. They needed extra parts, and the last time we faced them, Mark DeRosa and Matt Holliday were rumored to be of interest to the Cards. Either the FO is impressionable by the press, loose-lipped with their plans or it's a happy coincidence, but they indeed added both also acquiring Julio Lugo after being dumped by Boston. In an ironic twist, RMN commented that he traded Holliday for Brett Wallace in a sim league well before that trade came to pass.

With the offense strengthened and the best rotation around, the Cards are a force (though less than 10 runs ahead of COL in run differential) and a good measuring stick, but the Rockies are solid at home. That series loss to San Diego was only the second in their last 12 at Coors Field.

With a magic number of seven, the Rockies cannot clinch anything this weekend. The Cardinals can clinch the NL Central with a win or Cubs loss.

Go make a positive rapport with Cards fans, especially if they indeed become a first round (or even second round) opponent. Here: Viva El Birdos

Scoreboard Watch

Atlanta (3.5 GB) @ Washington: Javier Vazquez (14-9) vs John Lannan (9-12). Tommy Hanson (10-4) vs. Garrett Mock (3-9). Derek Lowe (14-9) vs. Livan Hernandez (8-12).

San Francisco (4 GB) vs. Chicago Cubs: Tim Lincecum (14-6) vs. Carlos Zambrano (8-6). Barry Zito (10-12) vs. Tom Gorzelanny (6-2). Matt Cain (13-7) vs. Randy Wells (11-9).

Florida (4 GB) vs New York Mets: Ricky Nolasco (12-9) vs. Tim Redding (3-6). Sean West (7-6) vs. John Maine (6-5). Josh Johnson (15-5) vs. Pat Misch (1-4).

St. Louis Cardinals (89-64, W1, 1st, MN=1)

Friday-Monday : 3-game series at Coors Field

The Bats: B

St. Louis' offense was very weak the last time we saw them. Suddenly hitters who were ill-prepared to shoulder the load of being the main threats in the lineup can now be role players.

LINEUP	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA	OPS+
Skip Schumaker - 2B	.304	4	35	.352	.377	.337	102
Colby Rasmus - CF	.258	16	51	.311	.423	.318	93
Albert Pujols - 1B	.330	47	129	.398	.557	.455	193
Matt Holliday - LF	.312	24	104	.391	.520	.391	143
Ryan Ludwick - RF	.271	20	89	.342	.408	.339	105
Mark DeRosa - 3B	.256	23	78	.324	.447	.334	100
Yadier Molina - C	.291	6	51	.309	.401	.338	99
Julio Lugo - SS	.260	3	20	.349	.414	.342	98

I included OPS+ in part to include the varied home parks DeRosa, Lugo and Holliday played in prior to their acquisition. Using a compilation of the stats, we can deduce that Pujols is a god/machine/alien and that Matt Holliday is an absolute All-Star quality stud. Ludwick is a bit above average while DeRosa, Lugo and Schumaker all come in at about average. Yadier Molina is quietly having a better offensive season than his brother Bengie, who gets to bat cleanup, and Colby Rasmus is having a rocky rookie season, though he's still a threat. There are no easy outs anymore. They have come a long way since having Khalil Greene hitting cleanup. And ohbytheway, Holliday is hitting .355 with 13 HR, 50 RBI and a .430 wOBA/172 OPS+ in 55 games with St. Louis. Someone wanted out of Oakland.

The bench currently houses Rick-throw-me-a-damn-fastball-Ankiel (.235, 11, 37), who has been splitting time with Rasmus in center. He is listed as the only reserve OF. David Freese (3-for-19), Troy Glaus (3-for-17), Khalil Greene (.205, 6, 24), Tyler Greene (.219, 2, 17), Brendan Ryan (.289, 3, 35) and Joe Thurston (.232, 1, 35) make up a predominantly right-handed bench as reserve infielders. The two current backup catchers are Jason LaRue (.239, 1, 3) and Matt Pagnozzi (No AB).

Check under the fold for reports on the arms, defense, pitching matchups, injuries and hot/cold players.

The Arms: A

The starting pitching for St. Louis has been tremendous. Pitching in a fairly neutral park, the rotation has put up elite numbers:

Name	Stat	MLB Rank
ERA	3.60	2nd
FIP	3.57	1st
BB/9	2.36	1st
WHIP	1.27	2nd
HR/9	0.69	1st
K/BB	2.66	2nd

Give those numbers to one starting pitcher with a good offense and you may have a Cy Young candidate. But that's the entire staff. We'll get the top two in the rotation in Carpenter and Wainwright. Joel Pineiro has been bumped back a start, so we'll get a bit of a break with Kyle Lohse taking the bump, but that rotation is scary, even with Lohse in it.

The relievers have gotten better too, pushing their pen ERA down to 5th in MLB at 3.66. However, FIP (4.30) and tRA (4.88) don't like their pen at all, mostly since they lead MLB in pen BABIP at .276. Closer Ryan Franklin has had an All-Star season by limiting home runs and hits in general, though again, fancy metrics don't really like him (tRA=3.81, FIP=3.19).

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Ryan Franklin	4-3	60	0	0	0	37	5	59.0	46	13	13	2	21	43	1.98	1.14

The rest of the bullpen includes RH's Mitchell Boggs (96 ERA+), Blake Hawksworth (185), Josh Kinney (69), Kyle McClennan (150), Jason Motte (86), Todd Wellemeyer (72), and Brad Thompson (84). Tony LaRussa has just two lefties: Trevor Miller (211) and Dennys Reyes (127).

The Gloves: C

St. Louis has a very average 0.1 UZR/150, are right in the middle at 15th with 88 errors, and have the 14th best Fangraphs value. Easy grade of C, right? Don't forget though that the Cards have completely different starters on the left side of the diamond from the first half of the season, rendering season-long metrics as such inaccurate.

Their D up the middle is very bad. Skip Schumaker is doing enough to validate having him in the lineup after his transition to second, but he's the worst graded defensive 2B in the game this year. Julio Lugo is a big downgrade from Brendan Ryan. We know Holliday can handle Coors Field. He has a very strong Fangraphs value for the last three years...except with St. Louis. Colby Rasmus is solid in CF and Albert Pujols has a Gold Glove on his mantle. The rest of the starters are at least average. So two deadweights, two fairly good and the rest slightly above average. Eh, C it is.

Probable Pitchers:

Tonight, 7:10 pm MDT

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Chris Carpenter	16-4	26	26	3	1	0	0	180.2	148	48	47	7	34	136	2.34	1.01

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Aaron Cook	10-6	26	25	1	1	0	0	145.0	167	75	72	18	46	75	4.47	1.47

Any hope for Todd Helton to win NL Comeback Player of the Year ended with Chris Carpenter's Cy Young contending performance this year. Quite frankly, you know you're right when your ERA, FIP and tRA are all under 3.0. We unfortunately missed him in June, because we would have hurt his career numbers against the Rockies - 3-0 with a 0.62 ERA in 4 starts. Nowhere to go but up, right? He is in the top ten in MLB in Fangraphs pitch ratings for his fastball (7th), slider (7th) and curveball (9th). Three starts ago, he threw a complete game one-hit shutout. Last Saturday, he tossed 8 scoreless innings. But in the start between, the Braves ravaged him for seven runs. I'd say someone needs to call Bobby Cox, but I don't think he'd help us out very much right now. We all know Cook's story. He's returning from the disabled list after multiple injuries and bad starts, this after his simulated game was less impressive than a pitcher who has been out all year with a career-threatening injury. His audition for the playoffs starts now. Favors: CARDINALS strongly

Saturday, September 26, 6:10 pm MDT

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Adam Wainwright	18-8	38	32	1	0	0	0	219.0	201	69	63	16	63	193	2.59	1.21

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Ubaldo Jimenez	14-11	31	31	1	0	0	0	205.0	175	82	79	12	78	181	3.47	1.23

What, another Cy Young caliber right-hander? Not fair. Wainwright has not been quite as effective as Carpenter, but not by much. The MLB's co-leader in wins has allowed more than 2 ER just 3 times in his last 21 starts, since facing Colorado to start June. We was awarded with a win in all three of those starts. His curveball value is 2nd in MLB and his slider is 5th, but that fastball has been hit around a bit. Some dude named Jason Berken in Baltimore has a fastball graded out as better than Wainwright's. He has won 11 of his 14 road starts, though his road ERA is nearly twice that of his ERA at Busch Stadium. After one atypical Ubaldo start and one trainwreck, Jimenez righted the ship with a strong gritty performance against the D-Backs. His leg should be completely healed by know, so he can commence firing unhittable sidewinders at Yorvit Torrealba. He has won 8 of 14 starts at Coors, where he has a better ERA than on the road. Favors: ROCKIES slightly

Sunday, September 27, 1:10 MDT

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Kyle Lohse	6-8	21	20	1	1	0	0	106.2	111	60	57	15	34	68	4.81	1.36

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jorge De La Rosa	15-9	31	30	0	0	0	0	177.0	168	92	87	20	80	181	4.42	1.40

Kyle Lohse will always be connected to Kazuo Matsui in the minds of Rockies' fans. Tony LaRussa gave the Rockies a gift (unless we face them in the playoffs) by pushing Joel Pineiro back and letting us face Lohse. The right-hander is having his standard career season, being a step below average. He's 1-2 with a 4.67 ERA in 5 career regular season starts against the Rox, 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA in two Coors starts. Jorge de la Rosa leaned over and unleashed a merciless stinker in his last start, but let's not forget opponents failed to score more than 3 ER off him in 15 of his last 18 starts. We ought not worry unless it becomes a trend. Favors: ROCKIES strongly

Albert Pujols is on a tear. When is he not? The Machine is hitting .385 with 6 HR and 8 2Bs in September. Matt Holliday has a hit in 19 of his 20 September starts. Those two plus Skip Schumaker, Ryan Ludwick and Yadier Molina make up a majority of the starting lineup that is hitting over .300 this month.

Ryan Franklin has broken his hot streak (saves in 13 straight appearances, 14 straight scoreless appearances) in a big way. The Cards' closer has blown three straight save ops, has been scored upon in 4 of his 8 September outings and has an ERA approaching 9 this month. Mark DeRosa has multi-hit games in 2 of his last 3, but he's hitting just .224 for the month.

St. Louis looks primed to head into the playoffs exactly as they want to. Troy Glaus has a strained oblique and may or may not return this season, and Brendan Ryan is "questionable" with a stiff pinky finger, but he is active and available to pinch run. That's it. There are no other injuries. I'm pretty sure I myself am more bumped and bruised than their entire roster.

Poll

Because we should only worry about what the Rockies are doing, with a 3.5 game lead, do the Rockies help their chances this weekend?

Those Cardinals scare BadMarquis right out of me. We are so getting swept.

10 votes

No way. If you can't beat the Padres at home, you'll lose a series against a very strong St. Louis team

41 votes

Yeah. We'll right the ship with a series win, decreasing the chances of missing the playoffs by half

51 votes

Hot damn. We already swept season series from the Reds and Nats. Time to add another red team.

10 votes

112 votes | Poll has closed

Reflection

the red baron — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 18:10:08 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

I would write a proper caption, but I could only cheapen the image. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

Browse more photos »

Another offensive explosion, another sterling win for our heroes in red, another night of beautiful transit from summer into autumn. The leaves are turning, and that old familiar whisper of excitement is in the air of the city. We've missed it the past two seasons, and sorely. But that whispering, chattering idiot noise of September bliss is back in force now, as those of us born and bred into Cardinal love look to October glory once again.

Or maybe, more correctly, a vibration; a low humming everywhere you walk that has always been and always will be as the days shorten and cool. It begins in March, that hum of anticipation for the season about to begin, and continues on through the summer months, rising and falling with the fortunes of the Cardinals and the red-clad masses who follow. There are peaks and there are valleys; walkoff wins in the night over Chicago and listless losses to Pittsburgh. But it is always always always there, curling around your life until you barely even notice it. Some years that hum fades as the Cardinals fall out of the race, victims of poor planning, poor performance, or poor fortune. Some years the end of summer brings only a sigh, an inward invocation of next season as the year current winds toward its death. Some years that hum falls away with the leaves as their colour finally goes brown and they drop to the ground.

But not this year. No, this year there is a building, a hum that becomes a buzz that becomes a singing that becomes a ringing that becomes a shout. Playoff baseball is coming to St. Louis, and you don't have to look or listen for the anticipation. You only have to feel it.

It was a hell of game last night, one with a little bit of everything we hope to love about this team. There was an outstanding pitching performance. The offense simply overwhelmed the opposition, and the defense stepped firmly down on their necks to keep them from thoughts of rise.

In the whole game, though, the moment which stood out most to me, the key to the game if you will, was Colby Rasmus' plate appearance in the third inning. There were two outs, and Skip Schumaker had just driven in Julio Lugo for the first tally of the game with a single up the middle. It was an outstanding piece of work by Schumaker to begin with, to get the Cards' first baserunner of the game home after Lugo was sacrificed to second base. But the turning point was Rasmus. Behind him was Albert and the middle of the lineup; if Bazardo could just get the rookie, Pujols would have to lead off the fourth.

The count went quickly to 0-2, as Bazardo threw a wicked little changeup for a called strike one and Colby fouled off a fat fastball. The next pitch was another changeup, a little down and a little away, just the sort of pitch you want to see your pitcher throw on a two strike count. It was ohsosweet and tempting, and no one would have been surprised, I think, to see Colby swing. But he didn't. He let it go with a look, and just like that, the most important pitch of the game was taken for ball one. After that, Bazardo tried to clip the outside corner with fastballs, but he had left his paintbrush at home and Rasmus wisely just let the pitches go. Four straight balls and Colby trotted down to first base.

Albert came up with two men on and drove in Skip, and that brilliant bit of baserunning razzle-dazzle by Pujols and Colby plated the Cards' third run. But it was the walk that really created the inning. If Rasmus makes an out there, the inning is but a footnote in the eventual story of the game, one run on a clutch single in the third. Pujols bats leading off the fourth inning, and who knows where the story goes then? But Colby refusing to swing at that 0-2 changeup changed the entire dynamic of the inning. Instead of Albert leading off the fourth, he came to bat with two men on in the third, and Bazardo was forced to face the middle of the order in a scoring situation. And even though Pujols himself proved to be the last official batter of the inning, two more runners crossed the plate before the third out was made. Just a walk on the scorecard, and it seemed like such a small thing at the time, but it shifted the balance to the Cardinals' side, and they took advantage. The run Rasmus scored on he and Albert's running gambit proved to be the difference in the game, in fact.

The Cards could very well clinch tonight, if they can take care of their business and the Cubs cooperate. With that in mind, I thought we might take a moment to catch our breaths before the elation and look back at how we got here.

I think there are five things which really made the most difference for the Cardinals in 2009; five things to stand for all the hundreds of little things that have made it such a rewarding summer in St. Louis. And without further rambling from your author, they are as follows:

1) Fuentes Heads For the Coast

what it was -- Remember, back in the winter of aught eight, when the Cardinals desperately tried to sign a sinister hurler by the name of Brian Fuentes to close games for them? At the time, it seemed like the most important move anyone has ever made in the history of the game to many fans, fresh off the bullpen disaster that was 2008. When the Cardinals refused to include a third year option on a deal for Fuentes and he signed with the Angels, the bitterness and angst among many was truly awe-inspiring. There was wailing and gnashing of teeth and rending of garments throughout the land -- and by the land I mean the Post-Dispatch boards and talk radio-- as the cries of cheap ownership and foolish General Managership reached a fever pitch. Those of us who believed in the Cardinals' young pitchers and those of us who believed Fuentes to be hugely overrated rallied together in an attempt to quell the uprising, but to little avail.

why it was important -- Brian Fuentes has been, to put it kindly, less than untouchable this season. Sure, he has 44 saves, but he's also blown seven, has given up a hit per inning, and is striking out four batters less per 9 than he did last season. His FIP for the year stands at 4.53, and that 2.24 he put up last year is looking more and more like the fevered dream of a madman. (Or the fevered dream of a contract year, however you like.)

More importantly, Fuentes would have cost the Cardinals at least $8.5 million this season and $9 million in 2010, stretching the payroll much tighter than it was on Opening Day. Fuentes would have been paid three times what Ryan Franklin was to do a worse job closing out games, and there quite likely wouldn't have been enough financial flexibility to make the moves the Cardinals did later in the year. So we can go back and sign Fuentes if you like, but it probably means no Holliday now. History is fun!

2) Franklin Comes Alive

what it was -- This one sort of bookends nicely with the Fuentes deal that wasn't, as the Cardinals received a very surprising performance in the closer role from Ryan Franklin. Debate all you like how good Franklin really is (and I think most of us are well aware he's nowhere near the pitcher he pitched like for quite a bit of the season), but he stepped in to the void at the back of the bullpen and locked it down for a good period of time.

why it was important -- Well, first off, it kept the Cardinals from losing a bunch of games through late-inning collapses, which is primarily what kept them from going to the playoffs last year. Second, on Opening Day, when Jason Motte got the first crack at closing out a game and blew it so magnificently, my father and I looked at each other (I was watching the game at his house), and said, "Here we go again." If Franklin doesn't step in and stabilise the bullpen, I think it's entirely possible Johnny Mo and Co. go into panic mode and make an ill-advised deal to try and bring in an established closer. And honestly, after witnessing the troubles of 2008, it would have been tough to blame them, but the end result could have been disastrous. Thankfully, Franky did the job, and no knee-jerk moves were needed.

3) Stuck in the Middle With Schu -- and Boog

what it was -- It's a little weird now to look back, but at the beginning of the season, the Cardinals' middle infield was desperately unsettled. Skip Schumaker was making a nearly unprecedented transition from the outfield to second base, and Khalil Greene was starting at shortstop. Most of us, myself most definitely included, thought bringing in Khalil was an excellent gamble, but it was still a gamble nonetheless. Unfortunately, K-Bot has gone all William H. Macy in The Cooler on us, leaving the shortstop position wide open. Five months later, Schumaker is a perfectly adequate player at second and Brendan Ryan has taken the shortstop position by force, turning into one of the best defensive shortstops in the league.

why it was important -- Honestly, can you imagine where we would be without Skip Schumaker and Brendan Ryan? If Schumaker can't pick grounders at even a Dan Uggla sort of level, we likely see Joe Thurston in the lineup every single day. And sure, Thurston's numbers put him in the "much too hated" category, but just think of the sheer number of extra outs the Cards would have made on the basepaths. It boggles the mind.

As for Ryan, you simply can't say enough about what he's meant to this team. If he doesn't take the steps forward he has this season, a) the pitchers all probably have about half a run tacked on to their ERAs, and b) we likely see either a crippled and damaged Khalil Greene trying to play in blood-soaked long sleeves all summer, or Tyler Greene swinging at pickoff throws. Thankfully, both Ryan and Schumaker have done pretty remarkable jobs this year of solidifying the middle infield, keeping us from the horrors that could easily have been.

4) A Carpenter and a Pinata

what it was -- Following a painfully disappointing 2008 for both pitchers, in which Chris Carpenter threw only a handful of innings while trying to come back from elbow surgery and Joel Pineiro earned his El Pinata nickname, 2009 looked a tad worrisome for the Cardinal rotation. Adam Wainwright was seen as the ace, Kyle Lohse the #2, and beyond that, oy. Most thought any innings at all from Chris Carpenter would be a bonus, and we all just wanted Pineiro to go away.

Instead, both pitchers have been outstanding, with Carpenter healthy for the first time since 2006 (minus a ribcage pull, but I mean arm-wise), and El Pinata posting an FIP 1.7 runs lower than in 2008. (4.71 vs. 3.01)

why it was important -- The Cardinals aren't standing where they are today without their rotation, simple as that. Even with the additions to the offense, the Cards still struggle to consistently score runs night in night out, leaving the heavy lifting to the pitchers. Kyle Lohse has had a really awful season, due to both injury and ineffectiveness, and without the contributions of Carp and Pineiro, the rotation would have Wainwright and, um, pray for blight? I can't come up with a good rhyme there. If Carpenter only gives the Cards the ~80 innings many expected and Jo-El is the same guy he is in 2008, this team is, well, the Brewers. Minus the douchebaggery. I hope.

5) Trader Mo

what it was -- After spending his first two offseasons as the helm of the Cardinals trying to clean out the junk from the end of Walt Jocketty's tenure here, Mozeliak had essentially gained himself two reputations. Among those of us who follow baseball very closely and are interested in breaking things down from multiple angles, Mr. Mo was seen as a Hippocratic sort of General Manager, i.e. first, do no harm. He wasn't really doing a lot of good, no, but then again, he also wasn't locking the Cardinals into crippling deals and going all March to the Sea on the farm system, so we were relatively pleased. To the casual fan, though, or even the serious fan less interested in the long-term view, who just wanted to see a winning team, Mozeliak was a do-nothing puppet, the man charged by Bill DeWallet to sit on his hands and save money so they could sell off the team in a couple years. Put simply, they weren't overly fond of Mr. Mo. What was worse, even those of us who thought he was doing a solid job trying to reset the organisation were beginning to get a little antsy.

Fast forward a bit, and the team the Cardinals take into the postseason in 2009 looks very little like the team which took the field on Opening Day, and even less like the team they ended the season with a year ago. Matt Holliday, of course, is the big acquisition, but manning up and going against the field staff to trade Chris Duncan for Julio Lugo may actually be the best move Mozeliak made all year. Bringing in John Smoltz was just gravy. There are, of course, some dark spots, as Mark DeRosa's production likely could have been replicated by an internal candidate, Khalil Greene has had a truly lost season, and in almost all of his trades Mozeliak has seemingly overpaid somewhat.

why it was important -- Simply put, the Cardinals were good enough to win the division or the wild card as constructed at the beginning of the season, but just barely. If everything went right, they were probably an 86-88 win team. If they did squeak into the playoffs, you would have to have expected an early bouncing.

Now, though, the Cardinals could very well be seen as the favourites to win the National League pennant. Personally, I'm still terrified of the Phillies,but not because I think Philadelphia is actually a better baseball team. They just seem to have the Cards' number the past couple years. Regardless, it would surprise no one now to see the Cardinals facing off with whatever AL team makes it through to the World Series at the end of October, and I don't think you can say that before Mozeliak made the improvements to the roster.

Additionally, while I'm not ordinarily a big believer in clubhouse chemistry and other such things, I do think the fact the organisation was obviously trying to obtain help for this team had a positive effect on their play. How many extra wins does that translate to? I have no idea, and wouldn't even hazard a guess. But beyond just how much better the new acquisitions made the team, the players themselves were very appreciative of the improvements made. And yes, winning builds chemistry better than chemistry builds winnings, but it isn't fair to simply dismiss the boost the players got when they saw the cavalry coming over the hill.

It's been a wonderful season, and I'm hoping we have something to celebrate tonight. And yes, I am in full-on jinx mode right now, but I don't care. I'm so excited, and I find myself unable to hide it. Or something like that.

The Baron' Playlist for the 23rd of September, 2009

"Forever Young" -- Alphaville

"The Universal" -- Blur

"Train Song" -- Vashti Bunyan

"All Summer Long" -- The Beach Boys