SB Nation - David Weathers

Heroes of the Zeros: The Bullpen

Slyde — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 13:00:28 -0000

As we continue our vote on the Reds All Decade Team, we look today at the bullpen. The Reds bullpen was a strength in the early aughts, but it also had some very lean periods in the middle of the decade before rebounding a bit the last two seasons. Below you will see the 28 relievers who managed to pitch 60 or more games out of the bullpen for the Reds between 2000 and 2009. The survey below will have you choose a closer, 2 right-handed relievers, 2 left-handed relievers, and 2 other relievers of your choice. Please be careful not to choose a pitcher for more than one spot as I will only count a single vote for that player.

One note before you vote, I didn't feel like doing the extra work it would take to separate a pitcher's relief appearances from his starts, so some of the stats below include starts as well as relief appearances. This mainly only affects Danny Graves (30 GS), Chris Reitsma (53 GS), and Matt Belisle (43 GS) with a couple other pitchers having a handful of starts in their numbers. Please try to take that into account when considering a player as best you can. Voting can be done after the jump.

Other ballots: Starting Rotation

Click header to sort table by column
	Years	G	W	L	W-L%	SV	IP	ERA	ERA+	FIP	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	SO/9	BB/9	HR/9
Jeremy Affeldt	2008	74	1	1	.500	0	78.1	3.33	133	3.72	.260	.323	.410	.733	9.19	2.87	1.03
Matt Belisle	2003-2008	132	16	22	.421	1	341.2	5.06	89	4.54	.302	.351	.472	.823	6.06	2.53	1.24
Bill Bray	2006-2008	111	7	6	.538	3	89.0	3.84	118	3.40	.278	.348	.433	.780	9.20	3.84	0.81
Jim Brower	2001-2002	68	9	10	.474	1	168.2	3.95	114	4.49	.250	.328	.406	.734	6.30	3.74	1.01
Jared Burton	2007-2009	154	10	3	.769	0	161.0	3.47	128	3.73	.238	.322	.368	.690	7.77	3.91	0.73
Todd Coffey	2005-2008	213	12	9	.571	9	206.1	4.62	98	4.58	.311	.366	.476	.842	5.98	2.75	1.22
Francisco Cordero	2008-2009	140	7	10	.412	73	137.0	2.76	158	3.42	.238	.329	.327	.656	8.93	4.47	0.53
Jon Coutlangus	2007	64	4	2	.667	0	41.0	4.39	105	4.57	.250	.373	.362	.735	8.34	5.93	0.66
Danny Graves	2000-2005	318	29	35	.453	147	526.0	4.16	105	4.62	.279	.331	.451	.782	4.59	2.58	1.16
Daniel Ray Herrera	2008-2009	77	4	4	.500	0	69.0	3.52	122	4.00	.283	.354	.419	.772	6.78	3.52	0.78
Mike Lincoln	2008-2009	83	3	6	.333	0	93.1	5.40	81	5.66	.269	.357	.465	.822	6.36	4.15	1.64
Gary Majewski	2006-2008	88	2	6	.250	0	78.0	7.38	61	4.73	.388	.429	.562	.992	5.31	2.54	1.15
Nick Masset	2008-2009	84	6	1	.857	0	93.1	2.31	186	3.65	.213	.276	.334	.610	7.81	2.80	0.87
Hector Mercado	2000-2001	68	3	2	.600	0	67.0	4.16	111	4.26	.262	.354	.418	.772	9.67	5.10	1.07
Kent Mercker	2003-2008	179	5	4	.556	5	142.0	3.36	129	4.72	.256	.336	.447	.783	6.91	3.99	1.27
Phil Norton	2003-2004	86	2	5	.286	0	80.1	4.59	92	4.10	.263	.359	.380	.740	6.16	4.93	0.56
Brian Reith	2001-2004	73	4	12	.250	1	127.2	5.92	73	6.16	.292	.381	.542	.923	5.99	5.01	1.83
Chris Reitsma	2001-2003	125	22	32	.407	12	404.1	4.52	97	4.57	.280	.329	.456	.785	5.19	2.52	1.20
Dennys Reyes	2000-2001	97	4	7	.364	0	96.2	4.75	98	4.74	.254	.363	.395	.757	8.19	5.96	0.93
Arthur Rhodes	2009	66	1	1	.500	0	53.1	2.53	169	3.14	.198	.276	.299	.576	8.10	3.38	0.51
John Riedling	2000-2004	200	13	12	.520	3	274.1	4.13	104	4.37	.256	.345	.385	.730	5.97	4.43	0.69
Brian Shackelford	2005-2006	63	2	0	1.000	0	46.0	4.11	107	5.20	.229	.333	.388	.722	6.26	3.72	1.17
Mike Stanton	2007	69	1	3	.250	0	57.2	5.93	78	4.26	.315	.374	.462	.836	6.24	2.81	0.94
Scott Sullivan	2000-2003	279	22	12	.647	4	338.0	4.05	111	4.21	.246	.326	.408	.734	7.96	3.49	1.14
Ryan Wagner	2003-2005	108	8	4	.667	0	119.0	4.69	90	4.38	.274	.354	.410	.764	7.64	4.24	0.98
David Weathers	2005-2009	325	20	23	.465	61	336.1	3.56	126	4.37	.239	.317	.390	.707	6.21	3.67	0.96
Gabe White	2000-2004	137	10	3	.769	1	128.2	4.34	98	4.25	.256	.289	.467	.756	6.92	1.54	1.47
Scott Williamson	2000-2003	155	13	15	.464	35	229.0	3.14	143	3.53	.209	.326	.329	.655	10.73	5.42	0.71

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/14/2009.

Sabermetric Review of the 2009 Reds, Part 4: Pitching

JinAZ — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 04:14:43 -0000

To recap thus far, 2009 saw the offense drop considerably, the fielding improve dramatically, with a net effect being that the 2009 position players were probably at least as good, if not slightly better than the 2008 Reds squad of position players.

What about the 2009 pitchers? Since the fate of a pitcher in the boxscore is directly tied to the fielders playing behind him, we need to adjust for fielders. Here are three ways of doing that, and how the last several years of Reds pitchers have fared using each approach:

Here's what is shown above:

UZR-adj Runs Allowed is straight-up runs allowed (park adjusted), with UZR-based team fielding factored out. For example, this year, UZR rates the Reds as a +53 fielding team. So, I added 53 runs to the runs allowed total to "simulate" what would have happened with an average-fielding team.
FIP-based runs allowed uses team FIP to estimate runs allowed per game, and then extrapolates to the full season. FIP stands for "fielding independent runs," and uses K, BB, HBP, and HR rates to estimate runs allowed independent of a teams' fielders or context. I park-adjusted K, BB, HBP, and HR rates.
tRA-based runs allowed is straight-up pRAA from statcorner, summed for starters and relievers. It is based on tRA, which is billed as a sort of "FIP on steroids." It uses K, BB, and all batted ball rates (LD, FB, GB, HR/FB, all park adjusted) to estimate runs allowed in a manner that again should be independent of fielders or context. I am unclear if pRAA is based on tRA or tRA* (tRA* is the regressed version).

As you can see, the UZR-adjusted number is more volatile, which makes sense given that it's based on actual runs allowed and thus is subject to all kinds of "luck" (not to mention the volatility of a fielding stat!). The FIP and tRA stats, on the other hand, basically parallel each other, with pRAA being consistently more negative about the team than FIP. These two stats do largely the same thing (though with somewhat different input data and methods), and in my experience are usually within spitting distance of each other. So while I'm not surprised to see them running parallel, I am surprised to see such a large quantitative difference between them in RAA. It seems to me, at least over the last four years, that the "real" data (UZR-adjusted runs allowed) have more closely matched FIP, which makes me more inclined to believe FIP. Maybe pRAA is using the wrong baseline (I'm comparing to all NL pitchers), or is more severe in its park adjustments? (fwiw, while I still like tRA, I am much less enamored with it--and much less ready to ditch FIP--than I was, say, 6 months ago. This is just the latest reason).

Anyway, looking at each line individually, you can see that all three statistics point to the same thing: pitching fell off a bit this year. And, if you look at just the FIP or tRA lines, it was in its worst state since Bronson Arroyo's arrival in 2006. What happened? Obviously, the Volquez injury was huge. But that's not the only story here. Player by player breakdowns below the jump.

The table is sortable if you click in the header.

Name	IP	pLI	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	HR/F	GB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	WARra	WARfip	WARhit	WAR
Aaron Harang	162.3	0.9	7.9	2.4	1.3	12%	35%	0.339	4.21	3.96	2.5	2.7	0.0	2.7
Bronson Arroyo	220.3	1.0	5.2	2.7	1.3	12%	45%	0.270	3.84	4.63	4.5	2.0	-0.2	1.7
Johnny Cueto	171.3	0.9	6.9	3.2	1.3	11%	42%	0.296	4.41	4.63	2.3	1.5	0.1	1.6
Francisco Cordero	66.7	1.9	7.8	4.1	0.3	3%	41%	0.301	2.16	3.10	2.8	1.6	0.0	1.6
Nick Masset	76.0	1.1	8.3	2.8	0.7	10%	54%	0.250	2.37	3.25	2.4	1.2	0.0	1.2
Arthur Rhodes	53.3	1.5	8.1	3.4	0.5	5%	41%	0.249	2.53	3.10	2.0	1.1	0.0	1.1
Homer Bailey	113.3	1.0	6.8	4.1	1.0	9%	43%	0.306	4.53	4.38	1.4	1.3	-0.3	1.0
Micah Owings	119.7	1.0	5.1	4.8	1.4	11%	37%	0.286	5.34	5.53	0.4	-0.1	1.1	1.0
Jared Burton	59.3	0.9	6.8	3.5	0.8	6%	43%	0.314	4.40	3.75	0.3	0.5	0.0	0.5
Daniel Ray Herrera	61.7	0.8	6.4	3.5	0.7	9%	50%	0.309	3.06	3.91	0.5	0.4	0.0	0.5
Josh Roenicke	13.3	0.2	9.5	2.7	0.0	0%	47%	0.355	2.70	2.03	0.4	0.4	0.0	0.4
Matt Maloney	40.7	0.9	6.2	1.8	2.0	13%	34%	0.282	4.87	5.16	0.5	0.1	0.2	0.3
Carlos Fisher	52.3	0.5	8.3	5.3	0.7	7%	44%	0.316	4.47	4.02	0.3	0.3	0.0	0.3
Paul Janish	2.0	0.0	13.5	9.0	9.0	50%	50%	0.726	49.50	14.99	-0.1	-0.1	0.3	0.2
Edinson Volquez	49.7	1.1	8.5	5.8	1.1	14%	45%	0.231	4.35	4.99	0.8	0.3	-0.2	0.1
Robert Manuel	4.3	0.2	4.2	2.1	0.0	0%	33%	0.329	0.00	2.97	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.1
Kip Wells	46.3	0.9	4.9	4.3	1.0	11%	49%	0.232	4.66	5.15	0.6	0.1	-0.1	0.0
Ramon Ramirez	12.3	0.6	5.8	2.9	1.5	11%	37%	0.183	3.65	5.03	0.2	-0.1	0.0	-0.1
Pedro Viola	7.0	0.4	6.4	3.9	2.6	18%	38%	0.253	5.14	6.43	0.0	-0.1	0.0	-0.1
David Weathers	38.0	1.6	6.4	4.0	1.7	15%	43%	0.200	3.32	5.23	1.0	-0.3	0.0	-0.3
Justin Lehr	65.3	0.9	4.6	3.9	1.9	16%	40%	0.277	5.37	6.09	0.4	-0.3	-0.1	-0.4
Mike Lincoln	23.0	0.7	3.5	7.4	2.7	23%	44%	0.283	8.22	8.75	-0.6	-0.7	0.0	-0.7

Notes on table: pLI is an indication of the leverage of the situations in which a pitcher pitched. pLI = 1 on average, pLI=2 when situations are twice as influential on game outcome as usual, pLI=0.5 when situations are half as influential on game outcome as usual. FIP is Fielding Independent Runs, with park adjustments for each coefficient (see above). WARra is Wins Above Replacement based on actual runs charged to a pitcher (park adjusted). It is calculated following Tango's methods, including the leverage adjustment. WARfip is WAR based on FIP. WARhit is an overall hitting assessment, which will be different from the last post because I discovered I was using much too low of a position adjustment for pitchers (sorry!). WAR is the sum of WARfip and WARhit.

Bronson Arroyo had the best season of the group based on traditional stats, and is our official 2009 Reds Pitcher of the Year. Clearly, he's the only one who topped 200 innings, and that has a lot of value in and of itself. Harang, in contrast, seemingly had another sub-par season, at least by his standards. This was especially true with respect to durability: thanks to his appendix, he only reached 162 innings this season, his lowest total since 2004.

But as Slyde showed recently, the major driving factor behind the differences in these two pitchers was actually some combination of fielding and luck: Harang's batted balls became hits 34% of the time compared to just 27% with Arroyo. In fact, if you look at his peripherals, Harang had a better strikeout rate (by a lot), a better walk rate, and an equivalent home run allowed rate (with identical HR/F rates) to Arroyo. Based on this, and despite his much lower innings total, Harang comes in as the more valuable pitcher this year...by a full win...over Arroyo!

I'm actually a bit concerned about Arroyo. His strikeout rate dropped considerably this year. Although he was improved in the second half, my pet belief is that Arroyo's success depends largely on his strikeout rate. Then again, he's shown large fluctuations in strikeout rate in the past, so hopefully this is just a blip. The Reds need him to be a 2-win pitcher next year if they're going to do anything.

Johnny Cueto had by most accounts a very successful season. He started strong, but seemed to taper off as the season wore on, perhaps due to workload: he pitched in both winterball and the WBC last winter, which is far too many innings for my comfort. I'd like to see him get back into the 8+ k/9 range where he was in 2008--if he does, he could be a force.

Homer Bailey had a heck of a turnaround season. Citing some changes in his delivery that occurred during the offseason, Bailey started slow, but then something seemed to just "click." The result was a tremendously successful final few months of the season. I still don't know if what we saw was real or not, but I sure hope it was. Given his playing time, he probably has the biggest error bars around his projection of any pitcher on this team, and perhaps across the entire league.

Micah Owings has probably the most interesting row on the list. As a pitcher, he wasn't very impressive. Low strikeout rate, VERY high walk rate, and low ground ball rates do not tend to lead to success. But the amazing thing is that he was able to couple that replacement-level pitching performance with hitting that clocks in right at league average. The result? A 1 WAR pitcher. You can do worse from your #5 starter. Or long reliever/pinch hitter. Whatever he is these days. Fascinating player.

Speaking of the bullpen, it sure looked excellent this year. Cordero, Rhodes, and the revelational Nick Masset combined for sub-3 ERA's and low-3 FIP's. Jared Burton (FIP 3.75), Danny Herrera (seems like the screwball works, at least on lefties), and Carlos Fisher (scary walks) also performed adequately in middle relief. If Bill Bray comes back strong following Tommy John, this could be a great young relief core moving forward. Well, minus Rhodes, because he's old.

Speaking of old, Cordero's line looks a little shaky from where I sit. His strikeout rate has gone from 12 k/9 in 2007 to 10 k/9 in 2008 to 8 k/9 in 2009. His walk rate was about where it is supposed to be, but his home run rate is artificially low, thanks to an extremely lucky HR per Fly Ball rate of 3%. I don't know if it's related, but he threw a lot more fastballs this year than last (63% vs. ~50% in prior seasons)...maybe the slider wasn't working as well as it used to? The Reds owe him two more seasons at $12M per year.

Overall, this wasn't a terrible pitching staff. But it also wasn't a pitching staff that featured any fantastic individual performances. And the rotation wasn't as strong as it has been in recent years, especially with injuries to Edinson Volquez and Harang. Volquez apparently thinks he will be back mid-next season, which could be a nice shot in the arm if the team is able to do anything with the first half. We'll see.

...

Wrap up and looking forward: So, that's your 2009 Reds. Fun in April and September, utterly forgettable in between. I don't know where this team is going, honestly. There are some good parts here. There are solid, steady contributers in Votto, Rolen, Phillips, Harang, and Arroyo. And there is youth with some nice upside in Bruce, Bailey, Cueto, Stubbs, and Volquez (when he returns). And there's more help on the way in Frazier, Alonso, and Leake. But it's also a team that is seeing some key players, especially pitchers, start to show signs of aging.

Given this, I wonder if 2010 is the year with the best window for success? And if so, can the cash-strapped Reds do what they need to do--plugging holes, mostly--to put themselves in a position to take advantage of some good fortune if it arrives?

Wednesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 15:18:10 -0000

More photos » by Darren Hauck - AP

Felipe Lopez reacts after learning Doug Melvin has decided not to offer him arbitration, against the advice of roughly 90% of the BCB community.

Browse more photos »

Some things to read while raising your expectations.

Actually, lowering your expectations might be a better move. An already disappointing Brewer offseason got even worse yesterday, as the Crew declined to offer arbitration to all five of their Type B free agents, forfeiting any chance to receive compensation picks when/if they signed with another team (FanShot).

Yesterday, I asked you to vote on which players should receive offers. 202 voters weighed in, and here are the results, as promised:

Felipe Lopez, 88%
Mike Cameron, 48%
Braden Looper, 7%
Jason Kendall, 3%
David Weathers, 3%

So, nearly 90% of what I consider to be a pretty knowledgeable community of Brewer fans wanted the team to go one way with Lopez, and Doug Melvin went the other. If that's not a microcosm of the offseason so far, I don't know what is. We split pretty much down the middle on Cameron, which is interesting, and the small percentages of votes for Looper, Kendall and Weathers are proof that some Cub fans stopped by to vote in the poll. Thanks for visiting.

Here's some more reaction from around the web:

SgtClueLs of Fire Doug Melvin, which likely gained some new bandwagon members yesterday, has a how-to guide on screwing up arbitration.
The decision earned Melvin a special distinction over at Brew City Sports.
View From Bernie's Chalet doesn't get the logic.
In-Between Hops doesn't get the outrage.

If it makes you feel any better, several other teams didn't offer arbitration to any of their free agents, either. Amazin' Avenue has the full rundown of arb offers: 32 players were given the option, out of a possible 68. There is a small silver lining there: Because the supplemental round is now guaranteed to be no longer than 32 picks, the value of the Brewers' second round pick in the draft just went up a bit. It will continue to increase if players accept arbitration or re-sign with their own teams.

After reading today's news, I'm sure you're itching to run down to Miller Park and give the Brewers more of your money, right? Well, you're in luck: the Clubhouse Sale is this weekend, giving you the opportunity to check out some discounted Brewer items and game-used memorabilia. You probably won't be as lucky as Tom H., though, who once purchased the final Brewer jersey worn by Julio Machado.

Of course, it's not all bad news today: The Brewers also officially announced the signing of John Halama.

In the minors:

Prospects Paradise has the Brewers' State of the System up, with scouting reports on eleven Brewer prospects. Overall, they give the organization a C for Impact Talent and a C- for Depth.
The Baseball Chronicle is on a mission to rank the top 200 prospects in the minors. Alcides Escobar checked in at #27 and Brett Lawrie is #57.

Around baseball:

Braves: Have reportedly reached a deal with Billy Wagner on a one year, $7 million deal with a vesting option for 2011.
Phillies: Signed catcher Brian Schneider to a two year deal.
Rays: Designated reliever Jeff Bennett for assignment and acquired Kelly Shoppach from the Indians for a PTBNL.

With the Rays acquiring a catcher yesterday, it's becoming increasingly likely they'll non-tender incumbent catcher Dioner Navarro. Evan Brunell of The Hardball Times lists the Brewers as one of ten teams that could be interested in his services, but whiffs on their current situation, listing Angel Salome as the top internal option.

At least we still have the Rule 5 Draft, right? Bucs Dugout has a look at another potential pick: Yankees pitcher George Kontos.

Sometimes I'm just not in the mood for heavy statistical analysis and whatnot, but I know some of you always are, so here's a post from Baseball Analysts on salary and WAR, looking at the correlation between the two. It's the kind of thing I'd attempt to comprehend on a normal day. Today, I'm just not in the mood.

There's a new leader in the clubhouse in the competition for minor league baseball's greatest logo. Ladies and gentlemen, I introduce to you the Richmond Flying Squirrels. (h/t Baseball America)

Yesterday I mentioned the Baseball Hall of Fame's Facebook fan page, and later realized it's been a long time since I've plugged ours. If you're a fan of BCB, you can show it to the world by adding us here. Oh, and follow us on Twitter, too.

No Brewer birthdays today, so we'll have to settle for wishing a posthumous happy birthday to Darryl Kile, who would have turned 41.

Now if you'll excuse me, I have some traveling to do.

Drink up.

Friday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 15:25:35 -0000

by Jim Prisching - AP

The Braves would love to unload Derek Lowe's contract, but don't sound all that interested in taking on Corey Hart in exchange.

View full size photo »

Some things to read while moving Christmas dinner.

When something shows up in two separate sections of the site, it's usually best to assume it's true, so the fact that there are posts about it in Rumorville and the FanShots must mean there's some truth to the rumor that the Brewers and Braves have discussed a trade that would send Corey Hart to the Braves for Derek Lowe. However, Mark Bowman of MLB.com says the Braves aren't interested in Hart, which makes two of us. Meanwhile, Jorge Says No! reiterated a trade idea they mentioned a while back: Hart for Kenshin Kawakami.

As of 12:01 this morning, the market is officially open for free agents to negotiate with other teams. Tom H. has an overview of the market, with the Brewers tied to the usual names: John Lackey, Doug Davis, Jarrod Washburn. Randy Wolf's name was also mentioned.

The Pinstriper has predictions for all of this offseason's Type A and B free agents, and thinks the Brewers will sign Doug Davis and re-sign Jason Kendall. Meanwhile, they have Mike Cameron, Braden Looper, Felipe Lopez and David Weathers signing with the Padres, Astros, Dodgers and Pirates, respectively.

While the BBWAA has left the Brewers out in their voting for most of their major awards, one pitcher still collected an award from another source: Manny Parra won Joe Posnanski's NL Les Sweetland Award for being the NL's worst pitcher in 2009, while Jason Kendall narrowly missed winning the NL LVP.

At least in this scenario, Kendall wouldn't be back: Wisconsin Sports Tap thinks the Brewers should step into the future and give Jonathan Lucroy the catching job in 2010. I've covered why I think it's a bad idea.

Two Brewer staffers, manager in the Brewers' media relations department John Steinmiller and manager of marketing promotions Caitlin Moyer have started a blog to keep fans updated on what's going on at Miller Park during the offseason, and they have a post on some planned renovations in and around the park, as well as the renaming of some parking lots (h/t Adam McCalvy). Miller Park Drunk took a look at the new parking lot map and wonders how Paul Molitor ended up getting the faraway lot.

As noted in today's Fall/Winter League Update, Alcides Escobar had a pretty good night in Venezuela last night, going 4-for-4 with a solo home run. If you're looking for more about it and happen to speak Spanish, here's a game story from ElImpulso.com.

For many Brewer fans, it's been a long few decades of waiting for the Crew to put a winning team back on the field, but we've held strong. A Girl's View of the Brewers tells the story of her Brewer fanhood.

Around the league:

Cubs: Re-signed John Grabow to a one year deal worth $3.75 million.
D-Backs: Acquired Aaron Heilman from the Cubs for a pair of minor leaguers.
Royals: Signed pitcher Brad Thompson to a minor league deal.

I know I mentioned it earlier this week, but I'm going to mention Lookout Landing's Faces series again because today's installment features former Brewer first round pick Dave Krynzel.

The deadline has passed for players to be added to 40-man rosters to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft, so we can start looking at players who might be available. One such player is former Brewer farmhand Cole Gillespie, left unprotected by the D-Backs. Gillespie hit very well in AAA for the D-Backs after being acquired as part of the Felipe Lopez deal, and will probably get a shot to make a team as a fourth outfielder next spring.

We spend a lot of time discussing minutiae during the offseason and most of it doesn't amount to much in the end, but this is why we do it: Jonathan Mayo of MiLB.com has a look at players who have gone from minor league free agent to big league contributor. It doesn't happen often, but it is possible to strike gold.

Miller Park Drunk is starting a season-by-season review of the decade that was for the Brewers, but you're forgiven if you're not too excited about reliving the 2000 season. It's about as exciting as Ryan Braun modeling more Remetee stuff.

Does a change up lose its effectiveness when a batter sees it multiple times? That's the question Max Marchi of The Hardball Times is taking on, by looking at batters who see multiple change ups, both in the same AB and over multiple ABs, and the pitchers who throw them.

On this day in 1969, the Seattle Pilots fired Joe Schultz, the first manager in franchise history, after just one season. Dave Bristol took over and managed the club for their first three seasons in Milwaukee.

Also, on this day in 1989, Robin Yount won his second American League MVP Award, this one as a center fielder. Yount received just eight of the 27 available first place votes but edged out Ruben Sierra by 28 points.

I couldn't find a Brewer birthday again today, so we'll have to settle for wishing a happy birthday to Rick Monday, who turns 64. Thanks in advance to FtJ, who will likely point out a birthday I missed in the comments.

And finally, a programming note: I'm leaving in a few hours to go deer hunting for a few days. I'll still be writing the Mug next week, but I'm moving Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday's Mugs to the afternoon so I can still hunt in the mornings. I'll be back with a regular Mug a week from today.

Drink up.

The State of the Rockies: A Sane Free Agency Preview

Jabberwocky — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 05:18:36 -0000

Ladies and Gentlemen, the siren of the MLB free agency period once again beckons, luring unsuspecting baseball fans into wrecking their ships against the sharp jagged rocks--in this case dreams of big-ticket free agents for even the smallest markets, ill-conceived trade schemes, and long soliloquies about why the owner/GM/beat writer is a complete and utter moron. This column, my dear friends, is the beeswax to put in your ears to defend you from those beautiful seductresses (and their horrible ideas) as you look forward to the 2010 Rockies.

Yes, that's right. A few minutes ago, the floodgates officially opened for major league free agency. In addition, all MLB teams are required to set their 40 man rosters in advance of the December 8th Rule 5 draft. I've written about all three subjects in Purple Row Academy before, so for those of you who are curious about how those processes are carried out, check out these primers:

Free Agency (the dates listed therein are from last offseason)

40 Man Roster

Rule 5 Draft

All three of these articles have supporting links that clarify the issues even further.

In this installment of the State of the Rockies, I opine about the puzzling Garrett Atkins decision, revisit Rafael Betancourt's situation, examine the Rockies' current 40 man roster status, and look some free agent targets that I'd like the Rockies to consider (plus, how they would fit into the budget that I've outlined over the last two weeks).

Join me after the jump if you value your sanity.

Why didn't the Rockies non-tender Garrett Atkins before the 40 man roster had to be set?

Good question. There's one main reason for doing this, and that's to extend the window of time that the Rockies have to trade the underperforming third baseman for another few weeks--until the December 12th deadline for tendering contracts for players under team control. Unfortunately for Colorado and Dan O'Dowd, the chances of such a deal being consummated reside squarely between slim and none.

It's not that Atkins isn't drawing interest from other teams. Just three years ago he was a player worth 6.4 WAR, he can play both corner infield positions somewhat passably, and he is theoretically in his prime (he'll turn 30 on the date that the Rockies will probably non-tender him). The problem is, Atkins' value as a trade asset to the Rockies is basically nil. Because by rule Atkins' salary next year unless he is a free agent can be no less than 80% of last year's total ($7.05 million), teams that would trade for Garrett would at a minimum be paying $5.64 million for a player that was flat out awful in 2009. The point is that I can't fathom another team trading the Rockies anything (and I mean anything) for him when he'd come much more cheaply once he's been non-tendered.

However, since the Rockies have seven slots open on the 40 man roster as of today (more on that later), it appears that Colorado has enough room to protect the prospects they want from the Rule 5 draft without removing Atkins from it. I'm hoping against hope that O'Dowd can finagle a deal for Atkins, but let's just say that I'm not holding my breath.

What's up with Rafael Betancourt?

From the poll results of last week's column, it appears that the vast majority of you want Betancourt back next year, preferably on a multi-year deal with less of a hit on a per-annum basis. Since the Rockies did decline his option, which was the right call in my opinion, they face a further decision with the soon to be 35 year old reliever--whether to offer him salary arbitration or not by the December 8th deadline.

It is my opinion that if he were offered arbitration, Betancourt would be crazy not to accept it. His status as a Type A free agent severely pollutes his value on the free agent market, chasing away a number of potentially interested teams that don't want to give the Rockies their first round pick for a solid set-up man. Considering Betancourt's age and the relatively high volatility of relief pitching performance, the risk for another team is particularly acute. I believe that as a result Betancourt would be very fortunate indeed to receive an offer that approaches what he would get in arbitration.

And what would that be? Let's look at some precedent--a tale of two relievers, if you will.

Last year two veteran relief pitchers (Darren Oliver and David Weathers) accepted arbitration from their clubs. Oliver was a Type A free agent while Weathers was a former closer who had once been perceived as being productive. Oliver was coming off of a 1.0 WAR season in which he was very effective, while Weathers had produced 0.2 WAR.

Oliver, who was going to be 38 in 2009, got his salary increased through arbitration from $2 million to $3.665 million, while Weathers, who was going to be 39, went up from $3.3 to $3.5 million. Those are 83.3% and 6% raises respectively, as would befit their recent performance levels. In 2009, Oliver continued to defy science and produced an even better, 1.5 WAR year at age 38, while Weathers was DFA'd and ended up with -0.8 WAR--while being paid $3.5 million. That's the risk inherent with offering arbitration--some decisions pan out and some fail.

Given that Betancourt is likely better than both of the pitchers above and a little younger (35 compared to 38-39), he’ll get a slightly higher raise, closer to Oliver's 83% raise and maybe larger. In 2009 Betacourt was making $3.5 million—which means that I’m estimating an increase of 2.9 million (or 83%) to $6.4 million—in other words, more than the option the Rockies just declined should he accept arbitration. Who knows though…arbitrators work in mysterious ways.

The draft picks should Betancourt not accept arbitration and sign with another team would be worth about $5 million, so the Rockies are gambling that they can either re-sign Betancourt for a lower price tag or that another team would be willing to offer him a crazy contract despite his free agency status. If it works, O'Dowd is a genius--but I just have serious doubts that everything will work out. Bottom line though, the worst case scenario is that the Rockies pay Betancourt well over $6 million next year--which is pretty palatable as far as worst case scenarios go.

Who is worth protecting from the Rule 5 draft?

As I mentioned above, the Rockies have only 33 spots filled on their 40 man roster, meaning that they technically have room to protect up to seven prospects from the Rule 5 draft. Of course, that's not really realistic. As I've outlined previously, the Rockies have holes on the major league roster that need to be filled--namely replacements for their ten free agents and Atkins--so in effect they can protect only a few players.

Hat tip to WolfMarauder on this, but going strictly by the Purple Row PuRP list, the Rockies have four prospects that would need to be protected from the draft: Michael McKenry (C), Cole Garner (OF), Chaz Roe (RHP), and Edgmer Escalona (RHP)--plus Alberto Alberquerque (RHP), who the Rockies received in exchange for Jeff Baker.

Now admittedly the minor league system isn't my area of expertise, but if I were to hazard a guess, the Rockies will likely protect McKenry, Garner, and Roe--leaving both Escalona and Alberquerque (among other lesser prospects) eligible for the draft. They simply won't be able to protect more than that--not if the Rockies plan to field a complete roster come Opening Day 2010. We'll see soon enough.

Who should the Rockies be looking at in free agency?

Given that, by my calculations, the Rockies currently have 23 players under contract for next year (22 if you allow that Buchholz will start on the DL), they will need to fill those holes. This might be through re-signing free agents such as Yorvit Torrealba at back-up catcher, Rafael Betancourt as a set-up man, and Joe Beimel as a lefty out of the pen. Or they could go by the cheap youth method, promoting McKenry to the big leagues come Opening Day while using Deduno and Chacin in the bullpen. Or they could make a foray into the free agent market. Finally, the Rockies could explore the trade market both as a buyer and a seller. To that end, Baseball Prospectus has a few tips for those interested in making up interesting trade rumors.

My prediction is that the Rockies will explore a little of each, signing at least one of their free agents (my guess is that they do get Betancourt back one way or another) and maybe two (Torrealba seems somewhat likely as well), while should Torrealba fall through McKenry seems to be the most cost-effective candidate. I think that the Rockies are likely to trade one of their outfielders (and I've recommended Hawpe many many times), maybe two--and O'Dowd could perform a miracle and trade Atkins. Either way, I think the Rockies will be looking for one of two things in free agency: a back-up corner infielder/veteran and a relief pitcher, preferably a lefty.

Given this and the fact that the Rockies' budget is undeniably tight, here are a few players that I would recommend at least kicking the tires on that are within the Rockies price range. By no means is this list exhaustive, but these players would fill a need for Colorado.

Free Agency Targets

Pedro Feliz: Yes, he's a pretty bad hitter and yes, he's old, but Feliz fields his position very well (he could likely play first base at a high level too) and has shown at least some power--two important characteristics for a NL bench player. He's sufficiently veteranny (he'll be 34 years old), he's right-handed, and would likely cost around $3-5 million to sign. Ultimately, he's injury insurance that gives the Rockies a lot of flexibility in later innings. Obviously, Feliz will be looking for a starting situation before he would choose to come to the Rockies, which is a big stumbling block.

Jamey Carroll: He has already been awesome for the Rockies before (3.1 WAR in 2006), plus he can play almost anywhere on the diamond (and do it well). The fans and players love him already, and he's willing to come off the bench. The problem is that the competition for the utilityman will be fierce this offseason, and he might be snapped up for close to $3 million.

Felipe Lopez: He represents an upgrade at second base, plus he has defensive versatility. His excellent year last year could price him out of Colorado's range, though in my opinion he is being severely undervalued by many. This is a pipe dream that RMN and I share.

Juan Uribe: He's another former Rockie, one who has excelled in this type of role already on the Giants. Unfortunately for Colorado, he may have performed too well for the Giants, who really want him back. My prediction is that San Francisco gets their man.

Joe Crede: He's great with the leather and serviceable with the bat. The problem is that he's looking for a starting job and he's had three back surgeries already. Give him an incentive laden salary with a low base and he's your man--but Crede's probably not coming to Colorado in a part-time role (especially since he's a Boras client).

Eric Hinske: The last three years, the teams that Hinske has been on have made the World Series, winning it twice. How much more of a veteran winner can you be? Plus he's good with the bat and is versatile (though not particularly competent) defensively.

Jose Contreras: More than any other Rockies free agents, I want Contreras back next year as rotation insurance and as a swing man with excellent stuff in the bullpen--heck, I'd like to see the Rockies pay up to $3 million for his services. Whether that would be enough is another matter.

John Smoltz: If he'd deign to sign with the Rockies, Colorado would be glad to have his power arm in the bullpen or even in the fifth starter's role.

Rodrigo Lopez: He has found success in Colorado before and would serve as rotation depth.

Mark Hendrickson and Scott Eyre (Type B): Serviceable veteran left-handed relievers that would cost around $2-3 million each.

To that effect, there are many relievers or failed starters that O'Dowd could pick up cheaply off the scrap heap that would perform at a decent level for this team--I'm not really as worried about the bullpen.

The bottom line is that I think the Rockies should sign Feliz or a similar player to replace Atkins while inking a veteran starter/reliever for the bullpen. If Colorado does move Hawpe, they'll likely receive a bullpen arm in return that could fill the void as well. Either way, I'm expecting free agency to cost the Rockies around $8-10 million, bringing their ODP to around $87 million.

Monday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 16:01:31 -0000

by Ann Heisenfelt - AP

Carlos Gomez makes the wrong kind of contact.

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Some things to read while realizing you left your credit card in your other armor.

Thanks to Dan, Tyler and Rubie for filling in for me last week while I took a quick break to experience life in New York for a few days. Writing the Mug is no small feat, and all three of them did admirable work in my place, so be sure to stop by their sites today to thank them. It's good to be home. With that said, I'm going in for oral surgery in roughly an hour so I'm off again tomorrow, and I've lined up another of my favorite Brewer bloggers to fill in. I'm hoping to return on Wednesday but that will depend on how I bounce back and how coherent I am on Vicodin.

The Brewers, of course, saw fit to ruin a perfectly good day of my vacation by trading J.J. Hardy for Carlos Gomez. If you weren't around the site this weekend, you missed a lot of great content on the trade: Jordan weighed in with his disappointment, Jeff made the case for keeping Mike Cameron anyway, and Noah, writing his first weekend roundup, had a great collection of thoughts on the deal from around the web. With that said, there's still a bunch more out there:

The Transaction Oracle compared Gomez to Tom Goodwin and said, "Gomez's version of selectivity is staring blankly at a random pitch and then flailing at the next one."
Tom Powers of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press called Gomez "clueless" and said he "has the baseball instincts of an Icelandic grade-schooler." (h/t BBTF)
The Grand National Championships called Gomez "a Juan Pierre without all that incessant singles hitting."
TheJay has a look at the career paths of players who have made as many PAs as Gomez has at such a young age with such a low OBP. Not exceptionally pretty.
Aaron Gleeman says Gomez has gotten a bum rap, but also likes the deal for the Twins.
Miller Park Drunk has a roundup of other things people are saying about Gomez.
Meanwhile, despite Jeff's objections, Doug Melvin confirmed that the Brewers' decision to acquire Gomez means they won't make a push to retain Mike Cameron for 2010.
Nick's Twins Blog has an overview of the deal, including my scouting report for Hardy.
Twinkie Town has some questions about Hardy's defense (based largely on the comments of some frequent BCB'ers), and whether or not it's as good as advertised.
FanGraphs has a look at Hardy's defense, and rated him the third most valuable defensive player in baseball since 2007.
Along with the Red Sox (and presumably some others), the Reds confirmed interest in Hardy. Melvin didn't want to deal Hardy in the division, so he was forced to accept less from someone else.
The Ghost of Moonlight Graham called the deal a steal for the Twins.
Rubie Q called the deal "worst nightmare stuff."
Baseball-Intellect says the Twins got Hardy for "pennies on the dollar."
Sabernomics is having a hard time choosing a winner in the deal.
Jorge Says No! says this deal has the potential to be win-win.

As of this writing, 54% of voters in the poll on your right think the Twins won the trade, with just 13% picking the Brewers. Gomez is walking in the door with a large portion of the fans believing he's not worth much, and it can be tough to overcome that when you're carrying a sub-.300 OBP. This could be the deal that sinks Doug Melvin.

Now, the Brewers have to find a way to wisely spend the financial windfall. MLB Trade Rumors has the likely landing spots for this winter's top 50 free agents, and lists both Doug Davis and Jarrod Washburn as likely Brewers, and also lists the Crew as a potential interested party regarding Jon Garland. Meanwhile, they have Felipe Lopez as a Dodger, Mike Cameron as a Padre and Ben Sheets as a Ranger.

Beyond that, there's not a lot of Brewer news, unless you wanted to talk about the decision to decline David Weathers' option.

Around baseball:

D-Backs: Exercised Brandon Webb's option for 2010.
Dodgers: Declined Jon Garland's option for 2010.
Nationals: Declined Austin Kearns' option for 2010.
Phillies: Exercised Cliff Lee's option for 2010 and declined Pedro Feliz's.
Pirates: Designated pitchers Virgil Vazquez and Eric Hacker and catcher Steve Lerud for assignment.
Red Sox: Declined their option for 2010 on Alex Gonzalez.
Reds: Outrighted outfielder Danny Richar and first baseman Kevin Barker to AAA. Both will be minor league free agents.
Rockies: Declined options on catcher Yorvit Torrealba and Alan Embree.
Royals: Declined 2010 options for Coco Crisp, Miguel Olivo and Yasuhiko Yabuta.
Tigers: Removed outfielder Marcus Thames and catcher Matt Treanor from their 40-man roster.
White Sox: Bought out the final year of Jermaine Dye's contract.

I'm going to wrap this up quickly, because my pre-surgery meds are starting to kick in:

Miguel Olivo has been mentioned as a potential option for the Brewers next season. Beyond the Box Score has a comprehensive list of things he does well.
Phil Birnbaum looks at the possibility that younger umpires have more accurate strike zones.
Baseball Reference wants your thoughts to help improve their site.
Seventeen congressmen voted no on a resolution congratulating the Yankees for winning the World Series. One of them was Wisconsin rep Jim Sensenbrenner. (h/t Baseball Musings)

On this day in 1982, Robin Yount was the unanimous choice to win the AL MVP after leading the AL in hits, doubles, slugging, OPS, OPS+ and total bases, while playing shortstop for the AL Champion Brewers.

It's also a big day for Brewer birthdays:

Dave Bush turns 30.
Angel Miranda, who appeared in 116 games as a Brewer between 1993 and 1997, turns 40.
Dion James, who was the Brewers' first round pick in the 1980 draft, turns 47.
Teddy Higuera, arguably the greatest pitcher in Brewer history, turns 51. You should celebrate his birthday by purchasing the sponsorship on his Bref page, which is available for $10.

Drink up.

Thursday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 14:10:57 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

Ryan Braun isn't going anywhere. Let it go.

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Some things to read while getting a craving.

Doug Melvin held his post-mortem press conference yesterday, and while this comment in yesterday's Mug has the full list of topics discussed, some jumped out more than others:

Melvin does not expect to pursue the possibility of trading Ryan Braun or Prince Fielder this offseason, but the team also has yet to make a move to lock up Fielder long term.
Trevor Hoffman's contract, previously reported as being worth $8 million for 2010, is actually worth $7.5 million, plus a $500k buyout for 2011. That link also has a list of the incentives that would increase the buyout and potential 2011 salary.
Adam McCalvy also has notes on Jeff Suppan (not guaranteed a spot next season), Ben Sheets (may still be on the radar) and J.J. Hardy (unlikely to return).

Hopefully yesterday's press conference will be the end of speculation about the possibility of trading Braun. I usually avoid them, but I've heard the topic came up again in Anthony Witrado's chat this week, and Rubie Q is setting the odds on the origin of the rumor.

Even if Fielder isn't likely to be dealt, he's one of four faces on Amazin' Avenue's Offseason Met Rushmore. The Mets certainly seem like a team that would have interest in Fielder, but I don't think they have enough young pitching, which the Brewers would almost certainly need to get back.

Meanwhile, the Nats might be a fit for J.J. Hardy. FJB has a list of possible trade scenarios that all end with Hardy in DC. John Lannan is one of the players mentioned and if the Nats are offering him, the Brewers should be listening. Lannan just turned 25, has posted nearly 400 innings with an ERA under 4 over the last two seasons, and is under team control for four more years.

Elsewhere on the starting pitching front, Jorge Says No! has a hypothetical deal: Corey Hart to the Braves for Kenshin Kawakami. Kawakami is 34 years old, but has two relatively cheap years remaining on his deal with the Braves and posted a 3.86 ERA in 156.1 innings this season. I'd make that trade.

Chris Bosio's charity golf outing, which I mentioned earlier this week, is in Neenah today and it looks like the weather will cooperate. Leading up to the event, Bosio sat down with Brett Christoperson of the Appleton Post-Crescent to discuss the 2009 season at length.

Do you still have some residual bitterness from the season that was? Then you're the perfect candidate to participate in Brew City Sports' Hendies tournament. I went with chalk in most of the early round matchups, but there might be an upset brewing in the Bando division.

In the minors:

Matt Hagen of The Hardball Times handed out postseason accolades for the Florida State League yesterday, and named Caleb Gindl the league's top hitting prospect. Gindl's small frame continues to be his biggest challenge, but if he continues to hit people will have to take notice.
The instructional league season is just about over, with Eric Arnett tweeting that he'll be home in three days. There's not much coverage taking place in Arizona: that's the only news that's come out of instructional league in over a week.

With the regular season officially concluded, Andy Seiler has the 2010 draft order through the first three rounds. The Brewers are currently slated to draft 14th, 47th and 78th overall. The 47th pick is the Brewers' top unprotected pick, meaning it's the one they'd lose if they sign a Type A free agent. They're also likely to gain picks between #17 and the middle of the second round when Felipe Lopez and/or Mike Cameron sign elsewhere this offseason. The Brewers could also receive compensation picks for Braden Looper, Jason Kendall and David Weathers, but would have to offer arbitration to be eligible, and all three of those players would likely accept the offer and make significantly more than they're worth.

Yes, Ken Macha is returning for 2010, but here's a reminder that it could always be worse: Ned Yost is being mentioned as a candidate for managerial openings in both Houston and Cleveland. I think I speak for a lot of us when I say it'd be great to have him back in the division.

Speaking of managers, Hal McCoy has a great profile of likely NL Manager of the Year Jim Tracy, chronicling his two years in Pittsburgh and sudden resurrection in Colorado.

Happy birthday today to Bob Skube, who had cups of coffee with the Brewers in 1982 and 1983 and turns 52.

That's all I've got for you today, unless you'd like to read about 2002-2003 Beloit Snapper Jon Steitz's dad winning the Nobel Prize.

Drink up.

Tuesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 14:39:55 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Curry - AP

Trevor Hoffman delivers a pitch during the ninth inning Sunday, in what won't be his final Brewer appearance after all.

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Some things to read while staking your claim.

If the Brewers keep up this pace, they'll have all of their offseason work done by Thanksgiving: One day into the offseason, the Brewers have one problem solved, as Trevor Hoffman signed a one year deal worth $8 million with a team option for 2011 (FanShot). Tom H. is reporting that both the option year and potential buyout contain escalators tied to games finished in 2010.

Here's some reaction around the web:

Evan Brunell of The Hardball Times thinks it was a logical move.
Jorge Says No! thinks the Brewers overspent and could have better used the money on other priorities.
Rob Neyer notes that Hoffman's BABIP has been very low over the course of his career, but that's also true of many other premier closers.
Dave Allen of FanGraphs notes that Hoffman has a lot of "rise" on his fastball, which leads to more infield flies and a lower BABIP.

While Trevor Hoffman was signing his new deal, the list of Brewers awaiting surgery continued to grow. On top of Casey McGehee (knee), Craig Counsell (knee) and Braden Looper (knee), it was announced yesterday that Manny Parra will have arthroscopic surgery to "clean up" the AC joint and "remove some friction" in his shoulder (FanShot). The issue didn't prevent Parra from making his final starts of the 2009 season, but that doesn't keep me from wondering if it should have.

Meanwhile, there was good news on the medical front for Corey Hart, who met with a hand specialist and received confirmation that his injured fingers were sprained, not fractured. He should be fine in a month's time.

BBWAA ballots for postseason awards are due in on the final day of the regular season (which, as it turns out, is now today), but it will still be several weeks before we find out where Prince Fielder stands in the race for NL MVP. Walkoff Walk compared Fielder's 2009 season to some of the best years at the plate in Brewer history, and ranked him third on their NL MVP ballot. Meanwhile, Quevedo at the Buffet makes a passionate case against trading Fielder this offseason.

Speaking of awards, Yovani Gallardo finished second in the balloting for NL Comeback Player of the Year, far behind Chris Carpenter.

With Trevor Hoffman back in the fold, the Brewers have one less opportunity to get compensation picks for free agents this offseason, but they still could cash in: The latest Elias rankings are out, and they have Felipe Lopez as a Type A free agent, along with Jason Kendall, Mike Cameron, Braden Looper and David Weathers as Type Bs. Kendall did not receive any bonus points for leading the majors in beer plunks.

MLB Trade Rumors also has a list of players who could be non-tendered this offseason, and Dave Bush, Seth McClung and Jody Gerut are on the list. The three of them would likely command around $8 million in arbitration for next season.

Seth McClung doesn't sound very optimistic about the possibility of coming back in 2010, but BCB has started a Facebook petition in an effort to convince the Brewers to bring him back. As of this morning, it had already climbed over 20 members. Let's push that number a little higher today.

Attendance at Miller Park was down about 1% this season, but that's better news than you'd think: According to the chart at that link, 19 major league teams saw a larger decline in attendance this season, with eleven teams losing more than 10% and four teams losing over 20%.

Alcides Escobar can probably be penciled in as the Opening Day starter at short for the 2010 Brewers, but does he have a brighter future than Washington's Ian Desmond? FakeTeams has the argument for both sides, and a poll.

In the minors:

BaseballHQ has scouting reports for the Arizona Fall League, and ranks Mark Rogers and Rob Wooten as the second and third best pitchers on the Peoria Javelinas. AFL play opens one week from today.
Jonathan Mayo is working on a formula to determine the minor league pitcher of the year, and Evan Anundsen checked in at #8 on his list. He posted a 2.69 ERA and struck out 118 in 130.1 innings in Brevard County this season.

As I just mentioned, the AFL starts soon with other winter leagues soon to follow, but if those aren't enough for you the Wisconsin Sports Tap has an offseason survival guide. Hopefully we'll start the countdown to spring training soon, but the report date for pitchers and catchers has yet to be determined.

Need a mental warmup this morning? It took me 30 seconds to name the seven ways a batter can safely reach first base. I got the hard ones first and spent 20 seconds with a brain cramp before remembering an obvious one.

Is anyone out there a member of SABR? After reading Wezen-ball's pitch this morning (and noting SABR's discounted membership for anyone under 30) I decided to give it a shot for a year.

How much does defense impact a mediocre pitcher? Fungoes uses Jeff Suppan as a teaching tool to answer that question. If you're making a list of proper uses for Suppan, "teaching tool" and "batting practice" should both appear above "starting pitcher."

And, from one bad contract to another: Dugout Central chronicles the life and times of Bill Hall.

Happy birthday today to Jerry Stephenson, who appeared in two games for the Seattle Pilots and turns 66, and Valerio de los Santos, who appeared in 183 games as a Brewer and turns 37.

Drink up.

Rockies 7, Brewers 5: Chris Iannetta picks up Huston Street; Colorado's Magic Number down to 3.

theoldgrizzlybear — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 04:45:26 -0000

More photos » by Ed Andrieski - AP

Yeaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah DOOM!

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Jason Kendall. The guy who had exactly one more home run that I did this season coming into tonight's game, in 504 more plate appearances. Yet, with the way things have gone for the Rockies lately (not even all of which is their fault, necessarily), he was the one that drove the nail into their hearts and gave Brewers fans something to cheer about.

That was, until the now-seldom-used Chris Iannetta stepped up to the plate in the bottom of the 11th inning.

Iannetta blasted a 3-2 offering from veteran reliever David Weathers into the Rockies' bullpen to give Colorado yet another walk off victory, this time beating the Milwaukee Brewers 7-5. Iannetta was pinch hitting for Matt Belisle, who pitched a scoreless top half of the 11th to earn the victory. Chris' 16th home run of the season was by far the biggest of his career so far.

The game looked to be over in the 9th, as the Rockies rallied back from down 2-1 to take a 5-2 lead heading into the final frame. Huston Street struck out Casey McGehee, but issued a walk to Mike Cameron and allowed a single to J.J. Hardy. That set the stage for the longtime Major League catcher Kendall, who smacked a line drive just inside the left field foul pole and ripped the hearts out of nearly 40,000 Rockies fans. Street bounced back to get the final two outs of the inning, and Joe Beimel recorded what were arguably the biggest two outs of the game in the next inning as he lured Prince Fielder into an inning-ending GIDP.

The Rockies couldn't cash in offensively in the bottom of the 9th and 10th, but Brad Hawpe drew a leadoff walk to start the last half of the 11th, and after Jason Giambi popped out weakly to first, CDI came in and did his thing.

Jason Marquis overcame some early struggles and ultimately turned in a gutty performance, going six innings and allowing two runs on six hits. However, walks continue to be a concern for Marquis, as he issued four free passes.

Oh, and the Braves lost 5-4 to the Marlins (!), hence the Magic Number listed in the headline of this Game Wrap.

89 - 68

Games Back: 4

Streak: Won 2

Games Left: 5

Magic Number: 3

Check out the oh-so-interesting win probability graph, Row Call, and tomorrow's starters after the jump...

via www.fangraphs.com

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Tomorrow: Jeff Suppan (7-11, 5.04) vs. Jason Hammel (9-8, 4.30)...same time, same place. Hammel Time has been in full effect lately. Let's hope that continues...GO ROCKIES!!!

Rockies 7, Brewers 5 (11 innings)

KLSnow — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 04:19:01 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Chris Narveson works against the Colorado Rockies in the second inning Tuesday. I missed most of his outing: Did I miss anything?

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W: Matt Belisle (3-1)
L: David Weathers (4-6)

HR:Jason Kendall (2) Chris Iannetta (16)

MVP: Jason Kendall (+.310)
LVP: David Weathers (-.357)

Win Expectancy Graph
SBNation Coverage

The Brewers managed some late inning heroics to extend tonight's game, but couldn't quite finish the job.

A 5-2 game suddenly got interesting with one out in the ninth, when Mike Cameron drew a walk, J.J. Hardy singled and Jason Kendall (of all people) tied the game with a three run shot. Claudio Vargas was able to shut the Rockies down in the ninth and send the game to extra innings. He also pitched a scoreless tenth.

In the eleventh, though, David Weathers retired one batter before allowing Chris Iannetta to hit a walk-off two run shot.

I honestly didn't pay a whole lot of attention to tonight's game before the eighth inning or so, but here are the things that jumped out at me:

Chris Narveson looked pretty good until crashing in the sixth. He finished the night with three earned runs allowed on five hits in five innings, and was in line for the loss until Kendall's home run took him off the hook. He also picked up his first major league hit
Ryan Braun had two hits in the game to reach 194 on the season. He now needs six more in the Brewers' five remaining games to reach 200.

Anything relevant I missed? Let me know in the comments.