SB Nation - Reggie Abercrombie

Astros show interest in Kelly Johnson, Gustavo Chacin and Jason Michaels sign on the dotted line

HighLeveragePerformer — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 12:00:29 -0000

How does "Kelly Johnson, Houston Astro" sound?

After second baseman Kelly Johnson was non-tendered by the Atlanta Braves, a number of teams have expressed interest in him. That link notes that the D-Backs are on record that their hat has been thrown in the KJ ring, but Tim Dierkes said Monday on his site that three NL Central clubs: the Pirates, Cardinals and Astros desire his services to various extents.

Johnson's non-tendering came as a surprise to many, including clack, and his bat would be welcome in Houston, assuming he returns to his normal self after a down 2009. Take Bill James' optimistic projection and the fan's projections off FanGraphs, and you can get a pretty good idea of what is expected out of the middle infielder in 2010.

This wouldn't be an offseason-defining signing by Ed Wade, but if the Astros could get Johnson, the team would be much improved. The Diamondacks are in a position where they would trade another one of their backup infielders in order to create space for Johnson. Neither the Cards or Buccos have the greatest infields in the world, and while Pittsburgh signed Bobby Crosby to bolster theirs, it's not as if Kelly Johnson wouldn't be able to get significant playing time in Pittsburgh. St. Louis may not get Troy Glaus back, which leaves them with Skip Schumaker, David Freese, and Joe Thurston at 2B/3B entering spring training. Not exactly household names.

Pedro Feliz is an upgrade for Houston over Geoff Blum, but it's no guarantee that Feliz will be even a win better than Blummers. Kaz Matsui is injury-prone at second, is coming off a disappointing season and his backup, Edwin Maysonet, does not project to be anything special. Cost is something to focus on, as KJ made $2.8 million in 2009 and should demand a contract worth more than that in 2010. A deal in the mid-3 millions for one season maybe a gamble worth taking, especially if Wade cannot sign a starting pitcher or convert Jason Bourgeois to a second baseman as some have hypothesized.

Just when we thought we were getting rid of him...he pulls us back in. Or rather, we pull him back in. That's right: Jason Michaels has been re-signed to an $800,000 contract. Again, not a disaster, but the money could have been better allocated elsewhere. I would still like to see the team make a move for Ryan Church, if their budget allows for it. Bottom line, as with most of the Astros' moves, this won't be the difference between a postseason berth and another Astro-less October. Michaels wasn't near as bad as I thought he was in 2009, but I would have liked to have seen Wade think a little more out of the box. Reggie Abercrombie, and the aforementioned Bourgeois and Church could be in the running for the fifth and assumedly final outfield reserve spot.

Alyson Footer also tweets that Gustavo Chacin has been signed to a minor league deal and given an invite to Spring Training. Chacin hasn't pitched in the majors since 2007 and hasn't pitched a full season since 2005, so let's not hold our breath on anything happening for him with the Astros. His experience working with pitching coach Brad Arnsberg in Toronto most likely has a lot to do with his being given a shot. Think of him as Russ Ortiz with perhaps a bit more upside.

Plan? Schman: What is the Astros front office thinking?

DyingQuail — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 17:02:20 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

Just give us a sign, Ed.

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I just got finished reading this piece by Brian McTaggart. I read it; I read it again, and then I thought, "Sonofabitch." Why? Because I can't discern a single line of thought from McTaggart's interview that would indicate there's any kind of plan for the Astros. I don't need a blueprint, but at least some sort of trajectory, and if not a trajectory, at least an indication that our front office is in fact in touch with reality.

Why the fuss? Here are the selections:

The first task for the Astros is re-signing their own free agents, a list that includes impact players in shortstop Miguel Tejada, closer Jose Valverde and reliever LaTroy Hawkins. Houston likely doesn't have enough payroll flexibility to retain all three, and Tejada's future with the club would be at third base instead of shortstop.

Ok. So Wade is allegedly gunning for two of the three. My guess would a pairing of Tejada, plus a reliever and that spending would pretty much close off payroll for the 2010 season. $7.5 million in 2010 for Tejada is what I'm guessing we'll offer and I imagine that Hawkins will look for at least a $5 million deal coming off the season he just had (if you don't prod the raw numbers, he looks stellar).

So our main objective for 2010 is to bring back a SS to play 3B at age 35 or 34 (honestly, I'll never get Miggy's age right). And then sign a closer-esque reliever. After that, the goal, ostensibly, will be to plug the roster with in house pieces for the league minimum and hope that of Bud Norris, Feliepe Paulino, Yorman Bazardo, and Wesley Wright at least two can perform at or around league average for the course of the season.

But wait, we apparently also have a void our outfield. This one was news to me. Of our current corps of minor leaguers, I think the only "stenghth" we might have is in the outfield. Am I wrong?

Nevertheless, Ed Wade had this to say about our "situation" in the outfield:

"From the standpoint of position players with both Jason Michaels and Darin Erstad being free agents, our extra-outfield situation at this point is an issue," Wade said. "I'm not saying we wouldn't bring both guys back, but both are free agents, and we have to recognize we have a void now."

Really? A point at issue? The services of two veteran bench warmers who happened to play outfield at some point in their career is really worth a likely $2-3 million in their two contracts? Yordanny Ramirez, Reggie Abercrombie, Brian Bogusevic (just to name our AAA OFers, but not to slight the Gaston's and Locke's of the world) couldn't slot in their spots for less than $1 million? Interesting.

So from that point, I can't tell if Wade is conceding that he can only spend enough to sign one of the Valverde/Hakwins/Tejada trio because if he signs two of the three he can't afford to round out the bench, or not. But in all honesty, that has me worried.

Next up, something that's be eating at me for awhile, but Wade's quote brings it to the surface:

"If we can mix and match with Geoff over there and provide more offense, that's something we have to pay attention to," Wade said.

I get that Blum is allegedly an über-utility IF. But if Wade is really gunning for Tejada, why did he re-sign Geoff Blum so early? A piece like Blum seems best signed in January or February when someone like Blum hears things like "league-minimum" and "major league job" and jumps at the opportunity to sign after sweating it out all offseason.

There's also discussion of Wade looking to trade for a SP, but who does he trade? For whom? And why?

And it's at the point in the article that I started over, re-read and realized that Wade is literally just slapping duct-tape on this team and hoping it all holds. But with what purpose? I don't know. If Drayton's taking a hard line on the payroll because he doesn't want to lose money this year, why not just hold everyone we have in place? Offer arbitration to our FAs, and then whoever rejects it, take the picks and fill the slots with in house players at league minimum? If everyone rejects arbitration, we have a payroll of $80 million on opening day and we get finally see what are farm system actually has in it, and that seems more entertaining than the Ed Wade duct-tape ball that's being rolled right now. Hell, just throw some money at Hawkins and have someone we trust to close baseball games and still save Drayton a sizable chunk of change to invest in the 2010 draft.

Wade doesn't seem to be trying to make the roster better, he seems like he's trying to plug leaks on a sinking ship—but will still end up taking on water. And I have myself back to, what is the Astros objective for 2010 and beyond? Does anybody see it?

None of this is to say that I don't think the Astros can compete as assembled, or attempted to be assembled, in 2010, but my concern is that is there are plans for 2011, 2012, and beyond? Or is it going to just be duct-tape and prayers for the foreseeable future?

Hunter Pence and the Astros Outfield Defense

davoag — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 16:25:47 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

Congrats to the second-best right fielder in the majors.

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Don't know if you noticed, but Hunter Pence was a close second to Ichiro in the third annual Fielding Bible Awards, which were announced Monday. It was a nice finish for Pence, who has worked hard to turn himself into a very capable right fielder. Since Michael Bourn also finished in the top five in center field, it gives the Astros two premier defenders patrolling the vast expanses at MMP.

Still, that leaves one very big hole in left. Here is a snapshot of the most interesting section of votes to me, the left fielders. Note that Carlos Lee got three votes from his mother, his agent and his horse. If you look at the top vote-getters, though, something very interesting stands out. The winner, Carl Crawford, spent the majority of his minor league games in center field. David DeJesus, Nyjer Morgan, Lance Nix, Juan Pierre and Chris Dickerson all played the majority of their games in center field. Why does this matter? Well, I'll tell you after the jump...

So, everyone knows Carlos Lee isn't the best fielder. He looks slow, sometimes takes bad angles and can look disinterested at times. However, it's interesting to note that Lee had his highest total of outfield assists since 2004 last season with nine. The problem with Lee isn't his instincts or his arm, it's his range.

There's a reason so many former center fielders topped the Fielding Bible list, and I would say it's the same reason why people decry Derek Jeter as a Gold Glove shortstop, even though he may make fewer errors than a Troy Tulowitzki. Center fielders just have more range than your average left fielder. They're (generally) faster and have experience taking better breaks on the ball. Ideally, they have a decent arm, but that's not really necessary. This all plays very well in left field, a position where teams are wont to dump guys who can't play at first. Is hitting really more important than outfield defense, though?

Way back in September, I saw a couple of posts from Joe Posnanski on his blog that got me thinking about this. This first one brought up the idea of team's thinking completely outside the box about things, like making the best defense possible, regardless of how they hit. Would the runs you save equal the runs you give up? This follow-up post talks about whether there SHOULD be a separate Gold Glove for left fielders. Is it an important enough position to reward the best fielder there, or is it a hotbed of guys who couldn't hack it somewhere else?

I saved both of these posts, because it immediately made me think of the Astros minor league teams. For instance, the Express would routinely trot out an outfield with one of the best fielders in the minors, Yordanny Ramirez, and two players who have been center fielders in the past (Brian Bogusevic and Reggie Abercrombie). The same went for Corpus, where Collin DeLome, Josh Flores and Mitch Einertson all shared the outfield together (before Flores got hurt again) and all had played center at times in the past. Add to that another talented outfield in Lancaster of J.B. Shuck, Jon Gaston and T.J. Steele who could all play center. That's nine athletic players the Astros can and did move around all three outfield spots this season. Is the organization's philosophy changing? I think it has under Ed Wade and Bobby Heck.

It seems that the Astros will have more than enough players to fill the hole once Lee departs for greener pastures (in however many years that will take). Will it make them better as a team? Certainly Brian Bogusevic isn't the hitter Lee is, but he has a little pop, some speed on the bases and has a great arm in the outfield. Same goes for Collin DeLome, who's maybe not as athletic as Bogey, but definitely has more home-run potential. Either of these guys could start next season and probably be an upgrade over the sure-and-steady bat of Lee.

Whether this philosophy will work is another story, but for now, it looks like the Astros could have a potentially Gold Glove-caliber outfield in a couple of years. Now, if we can just do something about that infield...

N.L. Central Roundtable, Part I: Trade Deadline

Charlie — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 20:23:20 -0000

Here's the first part of a roundtable with SB Nation's other SB Nation bloggers, moderated by Sky Kalkman of Beyond the Box Score.

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): Which teams, under which circumstances, will be buyers over the next three weeks? How about sellers? If there are any undecideds, what will be the tipping point?

Stephen Higdon (Astros): There are five teams who could justifiably (and by justifiably I mean purely based on the standings) contemplate being buyers. This entire trade deadline, however, confuses me. Team economics, bunched divisions and Wild Card races, etc. all contribute to making it difficult to say who has what to give up and and who can afford to the price it will cost to get it.

As for my supposed area of expertise, the Astros, your guess is as good as mine. They're in a classic Astros position where management can smell the oh so familiar second half surge of the last few years (save 2007), but this is a different kind of year for the Astros. For one, this is an Astros management that is finally valuing their farm system and seems to be doing well in that regard. They don't have depth in any particular place, except for the outfield. Yordany Ramirez, Brian Bogusevic, and Reggie Abercrombie have been impressive at AAA Round Rock in the outfield, but none of them are the kind of players you can sell to other GMs. Ramriez possesses a Francoeur-esque allergy to walks, Bogusevic still hasn't had a full season as a position player, and Abercrombie is too old to be at AAA to begin with. So while the Astros certainly have needs, they don't have much to work with in acquiring it unless they give up on Bud Norris, Yorman Bazardo, and Polin Trinidad who have all been impressing in Round Rock's rotation (I might spontaneously combust from the frustration if we do, though).

Al Yellon (Cubs): At 3.5 games out of first place, the Cubs are clearly buyers right now. They need a bat and some bullpen help.

Slyde (Reds): I think the broken wrist of Jay Bruce has turned the Reds into sellers. I just don't think they'll be selling a whole lot. They have some veterans in the bullpen who could be dealt, and if they are going to make a big deal, it will likely involve Aaron Harang, since he's probably the most valuable veteran chip they have. Then again, who knows what any team in this division is going to do at this point? The Reds still probably think they are in it, and at 5 games back, why wouldn't they? You may see them trade some minor leaguers for a bat in the outfield or a shortstop, but I think that's unlikely. My best guess is that they'll stand pat and hope for the best.

Charlie (Pirates): As usual, the Pirates will be sellers. John Grabow and Adam LaRoche are free agents after the season, so they could go. Jack Wilson is also a possibility, although his defensive value and the Pirates' total organizational inability to replace him may make him more valuable to the Bucs than to other teams. Freddy Sanchez is also possible, but the organization recently approached both of them with offers of extensions. That could just be a ploy to raise their trade value. We'll see.

Kyle Lobner (Brew Crew Ball): The Brewers certainly could be buyers, but it's unlikely they'll make a major splash in the market unless they have a sudden change of heart regarding Alcides Escobar, their #1 prospect who's being treated as untouchable. If they won't trade Escobar, Mat Gamel or someone like J.J. Hardy, they probably won't get a significant piece in return.

Dan Moore (Cardinals): St. Louis already bought, and unfortunately lemon laws don't apply in Major League Baseball; DeRosa was the perfect fit, but his wrists suffer from Rickie Weeks's disease. With Troy Glaus nearly ready on offense and uncertain afield, the Cardinals are in a strange placeóeither they try him back at third, or they shop him in the AL, where he could DH. It should be clearer by the deadline, but it all revolves around his gimpy shoulder.

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): What holes will teams be looking to fill? What are the biggest holes they *SHOULD* be looking to fill but don't seem to be concerned about? Which holes from the first half can be plugged internally, perhaps by improvement the same player?

Stephen Higdon (Astros): If I were in charge, I'd be looking to find a second baseman, but that's only because management has some sort of aversion to Edwin Maysonet. Maysonet seems to be a more than servicable option at second base, but because Kaz Matsui is locked into his ridiculous contract and Maysonet has still has options, he'll languish in AAA while our below replacement level corps of utility guys and Matsui continue to be a drag at the major league level.

Of course the Astros could desperately use stability in the starting rotation via a three year reduction in it's average age, but yet again, there are some internal options the Astros should try rather than trying to acquire (Norris especially, even if his BB/9 is worrisome).

Wow. I can't believe I just answered a question about what the Astros need to try to do to plug holes and offered viable internal options--spooky.

Slyde (Reds): If they want to try to win something this year, the Reds need a couple of big bats now that Jay Bruce is out for a while. They should also be concerned about shortstop, but I'm not sure if they are. I think they think that things will get better when Alex Gonzalez comes back, but they rarely do with him.

Charlie (Pirates): The Pirates don't have enough talent to worry about holes right now, but if they were to acquire a young middle infielder to replace Sanchez or Wilson, I wouldn't exactly complain.

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): Who are the most popular trade targets for those holes? Any targets flying under the radar? Any targets your team is especially intrigued in? Any popular names they're backing away from? Any rumors you'd like to start?

Al Yellon (Cubs): With Geovany Soto out for an undetermined length of time, the Cubs are looking for another catcher. They could also use a left-handed relief pitcher so that Sean Marshall can go back in the rotation while Ryan Dempster is out. I have heard rumors that deals for these types of players might happen soon.

Dan Moore (Cardinals): The rotation is uncertain as ever, with Todd Wellemeyer back in full-pumpkin mode, but Troy Glaus has to be the first domino in any situation. There's just no way around it. The Cardinals need a third baseman, and there's a non-zero chance they have one, but he has to show he can throw it over the pitcher's mound first.

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): Which prospects and young major leaguers are most likely to change hands? Any that teams have deemed off-limits?

Al Yellon (Cubs): Josh Vitters is the only real position player prospect the Cubs have right now, and he's 2-3 years away. But I don't see them trading him at all -- it was rumored that the Padres wanted Vitters as part of a Jake Peavy deal last winter and the Cubs said no.

Slyde (Reds): The Reds don't have any top-level prospects outside of possibly Yonder Alonso, who broke his wrist a few weeks ago. What they do have is a bunch of mid-level prospects that could potentially be packaged together in a deal. At the big league level, I think Edwin Encarnacion is probalby the only young player who might be available right now, though the Reds haven't really indicated as such. I'm not sure if they've got what it takes to make a major splash in the market though.

Stephen Higdon (Astros): I am pretty sure that the current organizational philosophy is that if you were signed by Bobby Heck, you're off limits. As for how much they value anyone one that Purpura signed, I have no idea--I still miss Drew Sutton.

Dan Moore (Cardinals): Cards fans are worried about Jess Todd, who is rumored to be the PTBNL in the DeRosa trade. It'd be tough to lose to fine relief prospects in one bad-luck deal like that.

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): For the teams probably out of the running, what acquisitions and decisions based on the 2010 and future seasons would you consider a "win"?

Stephen Higdon (Astros): I don't think that there's a whole lot at the MLB level I'd like to see, other than JR Towles getting another crack at the MLB level. Towles, I think, is likely destined to be trade bait in the next year or two, and I'd like to see the Astros help him raise his stock a little bit.

In September, I'd also like to see Yorman Bazardo and Polin Trinidad get a few starts if the Astros are out of it, but I would also like to see them play it safe with Bud Norris more than anything. His career high for IP is 96.2 IP and he's already at 106 IP in 2009. As much fun as it would be for him to be able to contribute to a stretch drive (if there even is the potential for one), I think the Astros have to keep their eyes fixed ahead. The last thing this organization needs is Bud Norris being shelved for a season or two be injury.

Charlie (Pirates): The Pirates are the top contenders to sign Dominican mega-prospect Miguel Sano, who'd provide a huge boost to their farm system. They've signed their first four draft picks, but some of their highest-upside selections came later in the draft and haven't signed yet. Their ability to get draftees Zack von Rosenberg, Trent Stevenson, Colton Cain, and several others to put pen to paper will determine whether they had a good draft or not. They also need to figure out how best to turn their handful of remaining veteran players into young talent. Finally, this isn't a "decision," but I'd really like to see improvement from rez" class="sbn-auto-link">Pedro Alvarez in the second half of the season. The Pirates have a lot riding on him, and while he's shown big-league power so far, he's also struck out far too much.

Slyde (Reds): If we're going to call the Reds out of contention (they're definitely teetering), I'd say the best outcome for 2010 is to not deal prospects just to fill 2009 holes. That's not to say that they shouldn't deal prospects, but any move they make this season needs to be focused on making the team a winner in 2010. The Reds are on the cusp of finally having a winner. They just need a couple pieces to go along with their good, young pitchers and their core offensive players. Acquiring someone who will only help in 2009 is short-sighted and may prevent them from fill that hole next season, when the team should be in even better shape to compete.

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): Without any trade-deadline moves, what has to happen for your team to win the division How much more likely is your team to make the playoffs by plugging its holes or adding an impact player?

Al Yellon (Cubs): In this division, with teams struggling to stay over .500, a short winning streak -- even five or six games -- could put someone in the driver's seat. All the Cubs really have to do is have players like Alfonso Soriano and Milton Bradley hit the way they are capable of; the Cubs are 15th in the NL in runs scored, but have allowed the third-fewest runs in the league. Start scoring some runs and keep the pitching as consistent as it has been, and the Cubs could put one of those streaks together.

Stephen Higdon (Astros): If the Astros want to have a realistic shot at winning this division, they will have to maintain their .500 record through the month of July. With series against the Dodgers, the Cardinals, the Mets (but...it's the Mets*), the Cubs, and then the Cardinals, there's no room for dropping these series but still looking to October. To accomplish this, Roy Oswalt will have to be Roy Oswalt, Wandy Rodriguez has to have found consistency, and the gruesome trio of Brian Moehler, Russ Ortiz, and Mike Hampton have to find a way to for 2/3 of them to have decent outings each time through.

There have been reports this week that the Astros might look to give Bud Norris a shot in the rotation, which could go a long way in helping legitimating any Astros fan postulating about October. Norris' IP could be a concern in the long run (not to mention his inauspicious BB%), but as a short term stop gap to the maddening inconsistency that comes from employing three starting pitchers over the age of 35. I don't see him pitching in September, or rather, I hope he isn't.

*As bad as the Mets have been, I think that Astros' season series split with the Nationals proves there's no such thing as a gimme for them.

Slyde (Reds): The best hope for the Reds to win the division this year is for Edwin Encarnacion to get hot and help drive the offense with Joey Votto. Also, we'll need to see solid performance from the group of Laynce Nix, Jonny Gomes, and Chris Dickerson as they split time in the outfield. And probably most important is that Willy Taveras needs to start getting on base in a consistent fashion. So basically, the offense outside of Votto needs to wake up. If that can happen and the Reds can continue to play good defense and get solid work from the bullpen, they might have shot. Oh, and Bronson Arroyo needs to stop being terrible.

Kyle Lobner (Brewers): This Brewers team has enough talent to win the division, but only if their starting rotation stays healthy and effective. There's enough firepower in the lineup to win much of the time (with the recent slump as an exception), so this team will win as many games as the starting rotation can keep them in.

SBN's NL Central Round Up: Part I

DyingQuail — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 12:00:27 -0000

More photos » by Tony Gutierrez - AP

Luckily the round table didn't devolve into something like this.

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[ The following is the first part of a week long discussion that took place over Google Docs between all the NL Central Blogs for SBN. I have to say that I thoroughly enjoyed checking in every day-ish and seeing what everyone had to input ,and want to thank Eric Simon and Sky Kalkman for making this happen. With as much as we'll be seeing of some of these teams in the next month, hopefully this will help us follow Sun Tzu's sage advice of know thine enemy ]

Part 1: Trade Deadline

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): Which teams, under which circumstances, will be buyers over the next three weeks? How about sellers? If there are any undecideds, what will be the tipping point?

Stephen Higdon (Astros): With the exception of the Pirates, who I can't really peg as buyers or sellers based on their recent transactions, I don't really know who is going to be a buyer or a seller. There are five teams who could justifiably (and by justifiably I mean based on the standings sans digging deeper) contemplate being buyers. This entire trade deadline, however, confuses me. Team economics, bunched divisions and Wild Card races, etc. all contribute to making it difficult to say who has what to give up and and who can afford to the price it will cost to get it.

As for my supposed area of expertise, the Astros, your guess is as good as mine. The Astros are in a classic Astros position where management can smell the oh so familiar second half surge of the last few years (save 2007), but this is a different kind of year for the Astros. For one, this is an Astros management that is finally valuing their farm system and seems to be doing well in that regard. They don't have depth in any particular place, except for the outfield. Yordany Ramirez, Brian Bogusevic, and Reggie Abercrombie have been impressing at AAA Round Rock in the outfield, but none of them are the kind of players you can sell to other GMs. Ramriez possesses a Francouer-esque allergy to walks, Bogusevic still hasn't had a full season as a position player, and Abercrombie is too old to be at AAA to begin with. So while the Astros certainly have needs, they don't have much to work with in acquiring it unless they give up on Bud Norris, Yorman Bazardo, and Polin Trinidad who have all been impressing in Round Rock's rotation (I might spontaneously combust from the frustration if we do, though).

Al Yellon (Cubs): At 3.5 games out of first place, the Cubs are clearly buyers right now. They need a bat and some bullpen help.

Slyde(Reds): I think the broken wrist of Jay Bruce has turned the Reds into sellers. I just don't think they'll be selling a whole lot. They have some veterans in the bullpen who could be dealt, and if they are going to make a big deal, it will likely involve Aaron Harang, since he's probably the most valuable veteran chip they have. Then again, who knows what any team in this division is going to do at this point. The Reds still probably think they are in it, and at 5 games back, why wouldn't they? You may see them trade some minor leaguers for a bat in the outfield or a shortstop, but I think that's unlikely. My best guess is that they'll stand pat and hope for the best.

Charlie Wilmoth (Pirates): As usual, the Pirates will be sellers. Freddy Sanchez is on the market, and John Grabow and Adam LaRoche are free agents after the season, so they could go as well. Jack Wilson is also a possibility, although his defensive value and the Pirates' total organizational inability to replace him may make him more valuable to the Bucs than to other teams.

Kyle Lobner (Brew Crew Ball): The Brewers certainly could be buyers, but it's unlikely they'll make a major splash in the market unless they have a sudden change of heart regarding Alcides Escobar, their #1 prospect who's being treated as untouchable. If they won't trade Escobar, Mat Gamel or someone like J.J. Hardy, they probably won't get a significant piece in return.

Dan Moore (Cardinals): St. Louis already bought, and unfortunately lemon laws don't apply in Major League Baseball; DeRosa was the perfect fit, but his wrists suffer from Rickie Weeks's disease. With Troy Glaus nearly ready on offense and uncertain afield, the Cardinals are in a strange placeóeither they try him back at third, or they shop him in the AL, where he could DH. It should be clearer by the deadline, but it all revolves around his gimpy shoulder.

[ There's much more to be read after the jump. ]

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): What holes will teams be looking to fill? What are the biggest holes they *SHOULD* be looking to fill but don't seem to be concerned about? Which holes from the first half can be plugged internally, perhaps by improvement the same player?

Stephen Higdon (Astros): If I were in charge, I'd be looking to find a second baseman, but that's only because management has some sort of aversion to Edwin Maysonet. Maysonet seems to be a more than servicable option at second base, but because Kaz Matsui is locked into his ridiculous contract and Maysonet has still has options, he'll languish in AAA while our below replacement level corps of utility guys and Matsui continue to be a drag at the major league level.

Wow. I can't believe I just answered a question about what the Astros need to try to do to plug holes and offered viable internal options–spooky.

Slyde (Reds): If they want to try to win something this year, the Reds need a couple of big bats now that Jay Bruce is out for a while. They should also be concerned about shortstop, but I'm not sure if they are. I think they think that things will get better when Alex Gonzalez comes back, but they rarely do with him.

Charlie Wilmoth (Pirates): The Pirates don't have enough talent to worry about holes right now, but if they were to acquire a young middle infielder to replace Sanchez or Wilson, I wouldn't exactly complain.

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): Who are the most popular trade targets for those holes? Any targets flying under the radar? Any targets your team is especially intrigued in? Any popular names they're backing away from? Any rumors you'd like to start?

Stephen Higdon (Astros): Other than Carlos Lee and his entire contract to the Mets for Carlos Beltran (Lee is always healthy, Omar)? No.

Al Yellon (Cubs): With Geovany Soto out for an undetermined length of time, the Cubs are looking for another catcher. They could also use a left-handed relief pitcher so that Sean Marshall can go back in the rotation while Ryan Dempster is out. I have heard rumors that deals for these types of players might happen soon.

Dan Moore (Cardinals): The rotation is uncertain as ever, with Todd Wellemeyer back in full-pumpkin mode, but Troy Glaus has to be the first domino in any situation. There's just no way around it. The Cardinals need a third baseman, and there's a non-zero chance they have one, but he has to show he can throw it over the pitcher's mound first.

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): Which prospects and young major leaguers are most likely to change hands? Any that teams have deemed off-limits?

Al Yellon (Cubs): Josh Vitters is the only real position player prospect the Cubs have right now, and he's 2-3 years away. But I don't see them trading him at all -- it was rumored that the Padres wanted Vitters as part of a Jake Peavy deal last winter and the Cubs said no.

Slyde(Reds): The Reds don't have any top-level prospects outside of possibly Yonder Alonso, who broke his wrist a few weeks ago. What they do have is a bunch of mid-level prospects that could potentially be packaged together in a deal. At the big league level, I think Edwin Encarnacion is probalby the only young player who might be available right now, though the Reds haven't really indicated as such. I'm not sure if they've got what it takes to make a major splash in the market though.

Stephen Higdon (Astros): I am pretty sure that the current organizational philosophy is that if you were signed by Bobby Heck, you're off limits. As for how much they value anyone one that Purpura signed, I have no idea—I still miss Drew Sutton.

Dan Moore (Cardinals): Cards fans are worried about Jess Todd, who is rumored to be the PTBNL in the DeRosa trade. It'd be tough to lose to fine relief prospects in one bad-luck deal like that.

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): For the teams probably out of the running, what acquisitions and decisions based on the 2010 and future seasons would you consider a "win"?

Stephen Higdon (Astros): I don't think that there's a whole lot at the MLB level I'd like to see, other than JR Towles getting another crack at the MLB level. Towles, I think, is likely destined to be trade bait in the next year or two, and I'd like to see the Astros help him raise his stock a little bit.

In September, I'd also like to see Yorman Bazardo and Polin Trinidad get a few starts if the Astros are out of it, but I would also like to see them play it safe with Bud Norris more than anything. His career high for IP is 96.2 IP and he's already at 106 IP in 2009. As much fun as it would be for him to be able to contribute to a stretch drive (if there even is the potential for one), I think the Astrs have to keep their eyes fixed ahead. The last thing this organization needs is Bud Norris being shelved for a season or two be injury.

Charlie Wilmoth (Pirates): The Pirates are the top contenders to sign Dominican mega-prospect Miguel Sano, who'd provide a huge boost to their farm system. They've signed their first four draft picks, but some of their highest-upside selections came later in the draft and haven't signed yet. Their ability to get draftees Zack von Rosenberg, Trent Stevenson, Colton Cain, and several others to put pen to paper will determine whether they had a good draft or not. They also need to figure out how best to turn their handful of remaining veteran players into young talent. Finally, this isn't a "decision," but I'd really like to see improvement from Pedro Alvarez in the second half of the season. The Pirates have a lot riding on him, and while he's shown big-league power so far, he's also struck out far too much.

Slyde (Reds): If we're going to call the Reds out of contention (they're definitely teetering), I'd say the best outcome for 2010 is to not deal prospects just to fill 2009 holes. That's not to say that they shouldn't deal prospects, but any move they make this season needs to be focused on making the team a winner in 2010. The Reds are on the cusp of finally having a winner. They just need a couple pieces to go along with their good, young pitchers and their core offensive players. Acquiring someone who will only help in 2009 is short-sighted and may prevent them from fill that hole next season, when the team should be in even better shape to compete.

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): Without any trade-deadline moves, what has to happen for your team to win the division? How much more likely is your team to make the playoffs by plugging its holes or adding an impact player?

Al Yellon (Cubs): In this division, with teams struggling to stay over .500, a short winning streak -- even five or six games -- could put someone in the driver's seat. All the Cubs really have to do is have players like Alfonso Soriano and Milton Bradley hit the way they are capable of; the Cubs are 15th in the NL in runs scored, but have allowed the third-fewest runs in the league. Start scoring some runs and keep the pitching as consistent as it has been, and the Cubs could put one of those streaks together.

Stephen Higdon (Astros): If the Astros want to have a realistic shot at winning this division, they will have to maintain their .500 record through the month of July. With series against the Dodgers, the Cardinals, the Mets (but...it's the Mets*), the Cubs, and then the Cardinals, there's no room for dropping these series but still looking to October. To accomplish this, Roy Oswalt will have to be Roy Oswalt, Wandy Rodriguez has to have found consistency, and the gruesome trio of Brian Moehler, Russ Ortiz, and Mike Hampton have to find a way to for 2/3 of them to have decent outings each time through.

There have been reports this week that the Astros might look to give Bud Norris a shot in the rotation, which could go a long way in helping legitimating any Astros fan postulating about October. Norris' IP could be a concern in the long run (not to mention his auspicious BB%), but as a short term stop gap to the maddening inconsistency that comes from employing three starting pitchers over the age of 35. I don't see him pitching in September, or rather, I hope he isn't.

*Even as bad as the Mets have been, I think that Astros' season series split with the Nationals proves there's no such thing as a gimme for them.

Slyde (Reds): The best hope for the Reds to win the division this year is for Edwin Encarnacion to get hot and help drive the offense with Joey Votto. Also, we'll need to see solid performance from the group of Laynce Nix, Jonny Gomes, and Chris Dickerson as they split time in the outfield. And probably most important is that Willy Taveras needs to start getting on base in a consistent fashion. So basically, the offense outside of Votto needs to wake up. If that can happen and the Reds can continue to play good defense and get solid work from the bullpen, they might have shot. Oh, and Bronson Arroyo needs to stop being terrible.

Kyle Lobner (Brewers): This Brewers team has enough talent to win the division, but only if their starting rotation stays healthy and effective. There's enough firepower in the lineup to win much of the time (with the recent slump as an exception), so this team will win as many games as the starting rotation can keep them in.

Mets Top Prospects: #26 Cesar Puello

Sam Page — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 10:00:17 -0000

Here at Amazin' Avenue, were going to start a comprehensive running list of top Mets prospects. To debut the list, I will be counting down the top 26 (because 25 wasn't enough) prospects in the Mets' farm system, starting with 26 today. Mark Himmelstein (a.k.a. Meddler) has graciously volunteered to help on this project, due to his enthusiasm for the community, prospects, and Ike Davis' ugly swing.

Hopefully, this list will benefit all of us, by providing good set of reference materials for future discussion of the farm system. The ongoing community prospect polls are meant to compliment our countdown, but sadly your votes don't count toward this list. Amazin' Avenue is a Simonocracy, a conglomeration of rival warlords under one chieftain, not a Democracy. So without further ado, clocking in at #26 is...

Cesar Puello OF

Vitals

Born: 4/1/91

Height/Weight: 6'2'' 195 lbs.

Bats/Throws: R/R

Drafted/Signed: NDFA from La Romana, DR

Current Team/Level: Kingsport Mets, Appalachian League (Rookie Ball)

Mark's Scouting Report:

Quick and lean, Puello has all the raw tools you like to see in a young outfielder. He has a strong, athletic frame that should fill out nicely as he ages. He has basestealer's speed, a strong throwing arm, lots of range in the outfield, and burgeoning gap power. It's the skills where things get a bit tricky. Puello isn't a total hacker, but he's not a particularly patient hitter, nor is he particularly adept at making consistent contact yet. As with most teenagers, there is a lot of development to do on this side of the scouting spectrum, and unlike other IFAs the Mets have pushed quickly through their system, Puello has neither the plus batspeed to drive the ball consistently nor the strength and bat control to generate consistent loft. These things could change as he matures and adds strength, but such blessings might not come without their curses. The important thing to remember here is that there's a lot of development left here, so any excitements or disappointments should be tempered.

Statistics

Hitting:

Year	Level	G	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	BABIP	HBP	SB	CS	GB%	LD%	FB%	HR/FB
2008	GCL	40	163	151	46	6	0	1	5	32	0.305	0.350	0.364	0.059	0.375	6	13	5	57.00%	6.10%	36.80%	2.40%
2009	APP	10	47	42	13	1	0	1	1	8	0.310	0.370	0.405	0.095	0.364	3	1	0	62.80%	11.40%	25.70%	11.10%

Fielding:

Year	Pos	Outs	Chances	TotalZone
2008	RF	56	94	+5

Mark says:

Because the set is so small, the player so young, and the Rookie League statistical upkeep so unreliable, this is a case where it would be more advisable to follow the anecdotal telephone game-style scouting reports than the numbers themselves. Still, for what it's worth, the high BABIPs and low LD%s mean neutralizing these numbers for luck is going to yield an ugly result.

The only major thing I would suggest we pay attention to is the poor K/BB. If Puello can move those numbers back towards each other, he goes from an all-tools, few-skills prospect to someone you actually wouldn't mind calling one of the better outfield prospects in your system. The one other particular statistic to take note of is the HBPs. Nine HBPs in 50 games is quite a lot, and if the rate continues as the set increases, it would be an indication of a sustainable "skill" (though in this case, I'm not sure that's the proper term). This would mean his OBPs will likely be quite a bit higher than his BB% would suggest, which is a double-edged sword. The pure run value of a HBP isn't any different from a BB, but it is not the same indicator of process (and therefore, by proxy, progress). Thus in terms of progressive evaluation, this will be a case where BB% is going to be a more important litmus test than pure OBP will, relatively speaking.

Sam says:

Considering the BABIPs has remained high, I'm not willing to neutralize his numbers for luck quite yet. Three big non-luck factors in his LD%, BABIP disparity could include: his speed, inferior defenses, and the unreliability of the batted-ball data for minor leaguers. I hope it's more the first thing on that list, but I strongly suspect the LD% is a little unreliable, considering that a similar phenomenon holds for more established prospects at the higher levels of the Mets' system (Nieuwenhuis, Thole).

The Hit-By-Pitches are interesting, albeit a little worrisome. I would like to see some video on Puello, not just for his mechanics, but also where he stands in the box. After last year, I was ready to call his .350 OBP a fluke, but after 3 HBPs already this year, I'll say: be wary, but keep watch.

The most encouraging thing for me, here, is the one homerun already. Hopefully, this modest flash of power is a sign of things to come, as it's hard to draw any more conclusions from such a small sample. Some like to cite his increase in OPS from month-to-month last year, but that's probably as much coincidence as it is improvement.

Similarly, it seems too soon to make a judgment based on his fielding stats, but a positive number is good to see and matches the scouting reports.

Mark Has Fun With Comparable Players

1. Scott Boras' pamphlet says:

Carl Crawford

Year	League	G	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	BABIP	SB	CS	HBP
1999	APPY-R	60	278	260	83	14	4		13	47	0.319	0.350	0.404	0.085	0.382	17	4	1
2000	SAL-A	135	609	564	170	21	11	6	32	102	0.301	0.342	0.410	0.109	0.351	55	9	3
2001	SOUL-AA	132	585	537	147	24	3	4	36	90	0.274	0.323	0.352	0.078	0.317	36	20	4
2002	IL-AAA	85	383	353	105	17	9	7	26	69	0.297	0.335	0.456	0.159	0.351	26	8	2

As far as comping 18 year olds goes, this obviously a nice one for Puello. Puello is only a few months older than Crawford was when he finished his 1999 season, and the similarities are fairly obvious. Both players are/were low power, low contact, high BABIP, midsized, basestealing outfielders. The strikeout rates here are very similar, and while Crawford walked a bit more, he doesn't have those sneaky HBPs. What we see as we continue down Crawford's career is what I will suspect will be a recurring theme in these "ceiling" comps. He didn't show any major improvements level-to-level early on. His rates remained similar through Double-A, and despite a little power surge in 2002, it still took him another couple seasons in the majors to crack a .305 wOBA. This is what will be important in determining Puello's "prospectability". If he keeps doing what he's doing and maintains his athleticism, it might just take a little bit of extra raw strength to push him down a path that will eventually spit him back out as an above average player.

2. Impartial observer says:

Carlos Gomez

Year	League	G	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	BABIP	SB	CS	HBP
2004	2 Lvls (GCL-R APPY-R)	57	239	221	62	17	4	1	7	38	0.281	0.324	0.407	0.126	0.330	17	2	8
2005	SAL-A	120	539	487	134	13	6	8	32	88	0.275	0.331	0.376	0.101	0.313	64	24	9
2006	EL-AA	120	486	430	121	24	8	7	27	97	0.281	0.350	0.423	0.142	0.340	41	9	20
2007	PCL-AAA	36	157	140	40	8	2	2	15	27	0.286	0.363	0.414	0.128	0.342	17	4	2

This is another solid comp for Puello. Gomez even has the early HBPs instead of extra walks, at least compared to Crawford. Interestingly, despite having perhaps the best raw speed of the three, Gomez didn't have a ridiculously high BABIP early on, though he did also sustain one well above average through his minor league career. The problem with Gomez, unlike Crawford, is that instead of maintaining his early minor league rates in the upper levels, he showed some obvious signs of regression. When Carlos jumped from A-Ball to Double-A he experienced a notable increase in strikeouts and decrease in walks. Gomez still went on to become a reasonable major league player, but the vast majority of his value is tied up in his defense. This seems like a very possible path to the majors for a player like Puello, and it accents the point that the thing to watch for is a lack of level-to-level regression, even if there is no apparent statistical progress.

3. Steve Phillips ~~says~~ orally craps:

Reggie Abercrombie

Year	League	G	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	BABIP	SB	CS	HBP
2000	PION-R	54	253	220	60	7	1	2	22	66	0.273	0.360	0.341	0.068	0.374	32	8	8
2001	SAL-A	135	531	486	110	17	3	10	19	154	0.226	0.272	0.335	0.109	0.298	44	11	12
2002	FSL-A+	132	569	526	145	23	13	10	27	158	0.276	0.321	0.426	0.150	0.370	41	17	9
2003	SOUL-AA	116	479	448	117	25	7	15	16	164	0.261	0.298	0.449	0.188	0.371	28	9	9

There's an obvious statistical difference here between Abercrombie and Puello, Crawford, and Gomez. Abercrombie was an absolute whiff machine. He's another example of a player with excellent raw athleticism, but he was never able to make any kind of consistent contact. Still, the similarities here are still generally positive, despite what Steve Phillips wants you to believe. Abercrombie's BABIP has generally stayed high, though it tailed off a bit more in the upper levels. He also added considerable power as he grew up, but his plate discipline just never improved enough to become a viable major league player. He got hurt after 2005 and it essentially put an end to a prospect career that was hanging on by a thread to begin with. If Puello starts whiffing like crazy in the upper levels, we should use this kind of comp to recognize it as a monster red flag.

Sam Stays Closer To Home:

Last year, Puello played alongside OF Javier Rodriguez (age 18) and IF Jefry Marte (17). All international signees, their respective career paths tell us something about Puello.

Name	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Javier Rodriguez	135	.193	.258	.237
Jefry Marte	154	.325	.398	.532
Cesar Puello	151	.305	.350	.364

Marte, the least athletic of the three, hit the best while playing mostly 3B. He was promoted to A-Ball this year, where he's flopped with a .586 OPS. Javier Rodriguez never made it out of the Gulf Coast League. The lesson: Puello isn't refined but he's a baseball player. I don't mean that in the Steve Phillips, captain obvious sort-of-way, I mean his tools have begun to translate to skills. Rodriguez proves that transformation is not as automatic as we always think. The lesson regarding Marte is that the Mets not rushing Puello with his teammates is smart, not a vote of non-confidence. (Marte and Rodriguez also make a good disclaimer about rookie league stats: They can prove you suck, but not that you're good.)

Conclusion:

He's a prospect, because along with Nieuwenhuis and F! he is one of the few OF farm hands with legitimate tools. He's this low, because it's hard to read anything from his stats so far, and scouting reports are scarse. Right now, all we can do is wait for some breakthrough on either of those fronts. He doesn't have to get his BB/K to 1.00 overnight, he has to make enough progress to keep producing in the same way that he has in the Rookie Leagues as he moves up the ladder. Even though he's so young, we can make an educated guess that he will need to remain at least a plus athlete to become a viable major league player. That makes the possibility of injury even riskier, not in terms of likelihood but in terms of the damage it could do to his development. But it also means if he does develop his skills a bit and manages to stay healthy, he could blossom before our eyes.

Perfect-World WAR: 4.5- a Plus-plus corner outfielder with some pop

Path of least resistance WAR: 0.5- a useful fourth outfielder, but no Endy Chavez

Thanks again to Mark for all of his hard work. Expect #25 next week.

I think the Astros will be a .500 team in 2009--am I just biased?

DyingQuail — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 09:58:43 -0000

This will be a little bit stream of conscious—just warning you.

Somewhere around the first week of December, probably, I was sure that our dismal, dismal off season maneuvering was going to relegate us to the bottom of the basement. A solid ninety loss season is about all I could wrap my mind around. To be totally honest, part of me still jumps to that conclusion when nay saying begins about the 2009 season.

Then came the Community Projection Project. I wasn't really excited to do it because I thought it was going to be super, super depressing. Then, I filled it out, you gave some input, I tweaked it, some outsiders suggested tweaks in the methodology, and there we were: a .500 team.

A .500 season is nothing to brag about. Part of me would rather us be a basement dwelling team on a budget, with an eye on pouring money into player development, than a .500 team at nine figures, but .500 can make a season exciting. Maybe not exciting, but worth watching at least. Some statistical noise—luck, if you will—pushing us in the positive direction, and suddenly I might need to wake up early (for me) every morning during September and post play off odds again.

With Spring Training coming into full swing, prognostications about the impending season become the topic du jour. Lately, I've read, heard, and discussed a lot of negative opinions in regards to the 2009 Astros. It strikes me as ood too. This is the exact same team as last year, only we don't have Ty Wigginton, who missed 1/3 of the season in 2008, at 3B. Most cite Pythag-records as their claim, which is valid, but those methods are crude,and can't quite capture the value of high-caliber defense.

Dismissing those qualifiers and thinking about how lucky the 2008 Astros were to out perform their Pythag-record that much, doesn't it make sense to think about how unlucky the Astros were in 2008?

In the interest of front page space, I'm now going to make you have click the link to jump...so JUMP.

Here's a quick list, off the top of my head, at 3:30 AM (don't worry dad, I have nothing of importance to do tomorrow) of the unlucky things which befell the Astros in 2008:

Roy Oswalt was terrible for two and half months. Whether he was pitching through an injury, which I know clack and I think is the case, or just plain unlucky/ineffective—we were a team without an ace for half a season.
Wandy Rodriguez missed a significant portion of time due to a groin strain. So there was a solid six weeks we were a team without an ace, or a number two.
Carlos Lee got his pinkie shattered and missed the last month of the season.
Hunter Pence had to adjust to a league that adjusted to him, and was dismal for the first few months.
Kaz Matsui missed the first few weeks of the season with a freak (I hope) injury.

If the Astros really were lucky in 2008, imagine how much better they could have been if their luck was ALL good?

Pence seemed to have rounded into form by the seasons end, and most projection systems agree that he'll see a pretty sizable set-up in 2009 from 2008. Hopefully Carlos Lee won't have another digit shattered again, and although I know Kaz will go down with some injury this year, Drew Sutton looks like a more than serviceable replacement. In 2009 we also have Brian Bogusevic waiting in the wings to take a crack and wrenching CF from being an offensive void, and clack has managed to demonstrate that if Coop is smart about it, CF doesn't have to be very void like regardless.

Sure, Roy Oswalt and LaTroy Hawkins pitching in the WBC is iffy from a regular season effectiveness standpoint, but we only have one year's worth of data to make judgments about, so we're not even sure if that's a real issue of concern. Yes, Wandy is already tweaking muscles, but Spring Training is also replete with muscle tweaks that seem ominous. I am also aware that Moehler, Hampton, and Ortiz would seem like a formidable way to stock a rotation circa 2001, but we really only need one of them to perform well, one of them to perform not terrible, and the other one can ride the pine or head to Round Rock. I don't think it's out of the question to expect that at any point in the season those circumstances can't be existence, so that doesn't seem overly dire either.

I know this reads like a fan's exuberance clouded judgment trying to paint some rose tinted gloss on our prospects, but I think the above points are fairly fair...right?

Now comes the audience participation part:

Poll

Is it absurd to think that the Astros could be a .500 team in 2009? (you have to read the full article before voting...or, at least, please do)

Nope, it's reasonable enough.

65 votes

Yes, take off the fan boy outfit and use your brain.

33 votes

98 votes | Poll has closed

Astros Community Projection Project: PECOTA Update

DyingQuail — Wed, 25 Feb 2009 10:00:17 -0000

I've yet to go through and figure out where the tweaks we've thrown out on individual players are, but I went through and averaged the CHONE and PECOTA projected wOBA's for the hitters. There were a few players that CHONE and PECOTA drastically disagreed with, but all in all, there are fairly minor changes through out.

The project now envisions the Astros to be an 82 Win team. There are still a few tweaks that I need to make over the following week, of course, but I'm pretty excited about where it sees us right now. It's enough to at least keep the season interesting if we out perform that mark, or if the Cubs, Brewers, and Cardinals struggle.

Here's what the spread sheet looks like now. Feel free to chime in with disagreements and, more importantly, modifications that need to be made for playing time and positions (in fact, I beseech thee). I know Newhan needs to go in there (most likely) so throw out some PA guesstimates with those critiques.

Filling out the Astros' 25 Man Roster

HighLeveragePerformer — Fri, 20 Feb 2009 16:37:06 -0000

A lot of the team is set, but there are some worthwhile postional battles going on. Here are the guys that are as close to sure things as you'll find:

1B: Lance Berkman

2B: Kaz Matsui

SS: Miguel Tejada

3B: Geoff Blum/Aaron Boone

LF: Carlos Lee, Jason Michaels

CF: Michael Bourn, Darin Erstad

RF: Hunter Pence

SP: Roy Oswalt, Brian Moehler, Wandy Rodriguez, Mike Hampton

RP: Jose Valverde, LaTroy Hawkins, Doug Brocail, Wesley Wright, Tim Byrdak, Chris Sampson, Geoff Geary

After that, things get a little sticky. Here are the players that seem to have a legitimate chance to make the team out of spring training. I left guys like Brian Bogusevic, Edwin Maysonet , Jason Castro, Tommy Manzella and Sergio Perez out of the discussion because although they're participating in spring training activities, they don't seem to have great chances to make the big leauge team immediately.:

C: Humberto Quintero, JR Towles, Lou Palmisano, Lou Santangelo (Non Roster Invitee), Toby Hall (NRI)

SP: Brandon Backe, Alberto Arias, Fernando Nieve, Felipe Paulino, Russ Ortiz (NRI), Chad Paronto (NRI), Clay Hensley (NRI)

RP: Jose Capellan (NRI), Danny Graves (NRI), Bud Norris (NRI)

IF: Drew Sutton, Tommy Manzella, David Newhan (NRI), Matt Kata (NRI)

OF: Reggie Abercrombie (NRI)

There are roughly 20 "sure things" in my estimation, which leaves room for five more guys to make the team out of spring training. I would assume that two catchers will take up a couple of those spots, leaving everyone else three real opportunities to help fill out a major league roster. A complete forty man roster and non roster ivitees can be found here.